URBANIZATION CHALLENGES IN

PAKISTAN
National University of Sciences & Technology
December 24, 2009
Murtaza Haider Ted Rogers School of Management
murtaza.haider@ryerson.ca Ryerson University, Toronto
Tel: 416.979.5000 x 2480
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Outline

… What are the urbanization challengesg in Pakistan?

… Are these problems only urban?
… M j challenges
Major h ll with
ith llocall governance
†A history of a tug-of-war between non-representative
centre andd the
h political
li i l establishments
bli h
… What needs to be done?
… Your Questions
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Urbanization challenges in Pakistan

… Rapid urbanization
† Over the next two decades, the urban population in Pakistan
is likely to increase by 140%.
† This dramatic increase will add another 80 million to the
urban population in Pakistan, bringing the total urban
population to a 130 million people.
… The year 2030 will
Th ill also
l beb a major
j landmark
l d k in
i
Pakistan’s development as a nation.
† For the first time in 83 years, the urban population in
Pakistan will constitute 50% of the total population.
… From nearly 50 million urbanites today, Pakistan will be
h
home to a massive urban
b populationl off 130 million
ll
living in very high-density cities, which would be
struggling to meet the demand for municipal services.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Urbanization and Population Growth

Rural population (million) Urban population (million) Percentage urban (%)

160 60
Projected
140
Pakistan 50
120
40
Population (million)

100

Perceent
80 30

60
20
40
10
20

0 0
50
55
60

65
70
75

80
85

90
95
00

05
10
15

20
25
30
19
19
19

19
19
19

19
19

19
19
20

20
20
20

20
20
20
Years
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

We do have a choice, demographic dividend

… Not all is lost

… The urbanization in Pakistan is likely to pose new
challenges in governance and urban service delivery.
† The current appalling state of most urban centres may
worsen with time.
… While
Wh l urbanization
b poses new challenges,
h ll it willll also
l
create new opportunities for growth and prosperity.
† A natural
t lb by-product
d t off urbanization
b i ti will ill be
b the
th emergence
of a middle class of over a 100 million individuals, who will
not only create a domestic market for goods and services,
but at the same time can create a skilled workforce that can
become the engine of growth and source of innovation.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

The state of urban affairs

… It is no longer possible to overlook the urban decay in

Pakistan.
† Streets are littered with waste
† Drains are overflowing with sewage
† Low-lying communities are inundated after rainfall
† Traffic
T ff congestion is ubiquitous
b
† Violent crime in urban centres is on the rise.
† The
Th State
St t either
ith has
h divested
di t d from,
f or is
i no longer
l able
bl to
t
offer, reliable mass transit, good quality and affordable
primaryy education, and healthcare.
p
… In brief, the urban rot in Pakistan is screaming at us,
pleading for intervention.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Socio--demographics and housing characteristics

Socio

Housing Structure (%)
Average 
A erage Population 
Pop lation
Annual  Density (pers/  Urban  Avg. hhld.  Literacy  Semi‐
Area G.R. sq km) % Size Rate Adequate adequate Informal
PAKISTAN 2.69 166 32.5 6.8 43.9 56 11 33
NWFP 2.81 238 16.9 8.0 35.4 56 6 38
FATA 2.19 117 2.7 9.3 17.4
PUNJAB 2.64 359 31.3 6.9 46.6 65 8 27
SINDH 2.80 216 48.8 6.0 45.3 47 19 34
BALOCHISTAN 2.47 19 23.9 6.7 24.8 14 14 72
ISLAMABAD 5.19 889 65.7 6.2 72.4 88 6 6

Census 1998
Census,
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Access to water

Piped Water Hand Pump Well Others* Total

Inside Outside Inside Outside
Pakistan
1973 8.4 8.2 28.8 13.4 26.1 15.1 100
1980 12.6 7.7 34.3 12.3 17.3 15.8 100
1998 28 1
28.1 42
4.2 42 1
42.1 51
5.1 10 10 6
10.6 100
Urban
1973 28.4 26.5 26 7 8.8 3.3 100
1980 38.3 20 27.3 5.6 7.1 1.7 100
1998 60.2 4.8 25.7 1.3 4.4 3.5 100
Rural
1973 1.3 1.6 29.8 15.7 32.3 19.3 100
1980 2.5 2.9 37 14.9 21.3 21.4 100
1998 13.4 3.9 49.6 6.9 12.5 13.9 100

State of Population 1988 p-187 and Population Census 1998 Table - 48

 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Access to sanitation

Bath Room Latrine
SSeparate  Sh d
Shared  None 
N SSeparate  Shared 
Sh d N None 
Area (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
PAKISTAN 33 23 44 29 20 51
NWFP 34 24 42 25 18 57
FATA
PUNJAB 32 18 50 27 16 58
SINDH 34 31 35 35 31 34
BALOCHISTAN 27 42 32 19 29 52
ISLAMABAD 59 17 24 55 17 28

Census, 1998
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Infrastructure deficit

… Less than 1% of wastewater is treated in Pakistan (Shah,

2003) The
2003). Th restt is
i dumped
d d into
i t ravines,
i streams,
t and
d rivers.
i
† The result has been drastic. Brooks, streams, ravines and rivers
have turned into sewers.
… The metropolitan governments recover fewer than 50% of
the solid waste generated in the cities. The rest is left to rot
on the streets.
streets
… Even the waste that is collected is mostly dumped in open
fields or is incinerated. The dumped waste pollutes the
groundwater
d and
d the
h incinerated
d waste creates air pollution.
ll
… Lahore has fewer than 100 traffic lights, which are
insufficient measures of traffic management
management.
† The result is severe traffic congestion.
… In the federal capital, Islamabad, even the well-off
communities face chronic water shortages.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Urban poverty and unemployment

… The poor economic growth, specifically the low rate of

employment growth for the youth, lack of entrepreneurship,
and the collapse of civilian institutions are some of the more
inherent causes of the urban decay in Pakistan.
Pakistan
… Consider that the largest and the fastest growing cohort in
g of 15 and 25 years
Pakistan is between the ages y of age.
g
… Employment opportunities are getting increasingly rare.
… A large
g number of unemployed
p y youthy could readilyy be
drafted by the mafia or other degenerated groups.
† Media reports suggested that the first week of January 2006
witnessed
i d 10 murders
d iin KKarachi
hi andd seven in
i Lahore.
L h
… The case with the Swat Taliban
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Incoherent visions for urban Pakistan

… Imaan mujhe
j kheenchay y hey
y to …
… Urban geographies, rural dispositions
† How to ruralize urban centres!
… Should women run in marathons or not?
† Saudi Arabia: Should women drive, vote, travel alone,
etc.
† Iran: Should women be flogged if their hair are visible?

† Malaysia: Where the religion, economy, urbanization

can co-exist
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Challenges with local governance

… Governing hierarchies
† Federal
† Provincial
† Local/municipal

… The q
quest to assume and retain all powers
p
… Devolution and decentralization of powers and
responsibilities
… Challenge:
†A history of a tug-of-war
tug of war between non-representative
non representative
centre and the political establishments
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

The governance dilemma

… First the British colonialists and later the military

regimes, in the past, have used local governments to
create a loyal cadre of politicians who the non-
representative centre would later pit against the
democratic forces.
… With the return of civilian democratic rule in
Pakistan the local governments were often
abolished.
b l h d
… The tug-of-war between the democratic
governments and military regimes has left Pakistan
with an inadequate local government framework.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Milestones in local governance

Selected milestones in local government development

Bhutto Musharraf Democratic

First Panchayat Enactment promulga- enacts provincial
municipal Act of Lahore ted LGO LGO Non
LGO. Non- governm-
corporation established Corpora- Ordinance, party ents refuse to
established panchayati tion Act but not based work with
in Madras institutions in implement elections local
rural areas ed held governments

1688 1867 1912 1933 1941 1959 1972 1979 2001 2005 2009 2010
P t
Party-
Punjab City of Ayub's Zia enacts Second based
Municipal Karachi BDO act LGO non-party local
Act Act enacted. elections electi-
passed Abolished under ons
in 1972. Musharraf expec-
MAO in ted
1960.

* LGO= Local Government Ordinance, BDO = Basic Democracies Ordinance, MAO = Municipal Administration Ordinance
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

The consequence

… The establishment of local ggovernments under one

regime and their abolition under the other
prevented a strong
p g and sustained local government
g
tradition from taking root in Pakistan.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

The Musharraf plan

… While Gen. Musharraf took the same approach

pp of
banning politicians and creating a new cadre of
political parasites,
p p , who thrive under militaryy
dictatorships and act as a conduit between the non-
representative centre and the local constituencies,
Gen. Musharraf approached the decentralization
plan in a comprehensive manner such that the
devolution plan of 2000 was far more
comprehensive than all previous attempts of
decentralization.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Devolution Plan under Gen. Musharraf

 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Structural composition of a Union Council (old)

Muslim members
(8)
General seats
(8 + 2) Mayor and 
deputy mayor on 
p y y
joint ticket
Union Council
21 members Muslim women
(4)
General seats (4)
Reserved seats Peasants and 
(11) workers (6)
Women seats (2)

Minorities (1)
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Structural composition of a Union Council (new)

Muslim members
Muslim members
(4)
General seats
(4+ 2) Mayor and 
Mayor and
deputy mayor on 
joint ticket
Union Council
21 members M li
Muslim women
(2)
General seats (2)
Reserved seats Peasants and 
(7) workers (4)
Women seats (2)

Minorities (1)
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Local government hierarchy

Mayor & Deputy 
Mayor & Deputy
Mayor

Town/Tehsil Deputy mayors of 
Deputy mayors of
Council the 20 UC

The 420 Union  1/3rd reserved 

reserved
Councilors constitute the 
seats
Union Councils electoral college for  
(Mayor and  Town/ Tehsil Councils 
Deputy Mayor) and app. 1260 Councilors 
for the (City) District  Mayor & Deputy 
Mayor & Deputy
Councils. Mayor

(City) District 
(City) District Mayors of the 60 
Mayors of the 60
Council UC

1/3rd reserved 
reserved
seats
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

The challenge

… The challenge for armed forces is obvious.

† The ad hoc local government policymaking, even under the most
comprehensive devolution plan instituted by Gen. Musharraf,
revealed serious flaws in fiscal decentralization and
transparency.
† A review of financial decentralization suggests that the municipal
governments were left at the mercy of higher tier governments,
which
h h preventedd them
h from
f delivering
d l improvedd services to their
h
constituents.
† CCBs improve enfranchise the masses, political constraints
disenfrenchise
… The challenge for the democratic forces in Pakistan is to
realize the importance of local governments and therefore
to take steps to offer constitutional cover to local
governments.
† D ’t throw
Don’t th the
th baby
b b with
ith the
th bath
b th water!
t !
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

The update

… ICG claims massive rigging

gg g in the 2005 LG elections
… Voter turnout was poor
PROVINCE  Turnout (%)
   Male  Female  Total 
PUNJAB  61.5 44.0 53.5
SINDH  47.6 24.3 37.6
NWFP  57.4 21.1 41.2
BALOCHISTAN  39.3 21.5 31.1
Total  56.8 35.9 47.4
… Corruption rampant in LG
… Elected governments repealing LGOs
… Party-based elections expected in 2010.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

What needs to be done?

… The Urban Challenge

† The challenge for urban Pakistan is how to create:
„ Healthy
„ Prosperous
„ Socially just, and
„ Environmentally
E i ll sustainable
i bl urban
b communities,
i i which
hi h wouldld
contribute to the growth and prosperity of the entire nation.
… The planning for the future urban centres in Pakistan
should recognise that the cities would be the
primary engines of growth, development, and
innovation.
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Sectoral targets

… Local economic development policies

… Housing & land policy
… Primary & secondary education policy
… Basic health policy
… C
Community-based
it b d Infrastructure
I f t t development
d l t
† Orangi, Changa Pani, Duddhi wala
† Unsung
U hheroes: Hafeez
H f A i Manzoor
Arain, M W
Wattoo
… A strong dose of realism
† Meglev vs BRT
† Water for all means water for none
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Development Strategies

… Role of commercial banks

… Self-sustaining development
† Don’t rely on AID
… Re-engineer municipal finance
† Less than 7% of the taxes are collected by sub-national
governments
… Institutional capacity building
… Public community partnerships
… Revamping curricula for urban planners and civil
engineers
… Information & knowledge banks
 © Murtaza Haider, 2009

Again, we do have a choice

… With the demographic

g p dividend,, we can:
† Bringprosperity and development
† Become regressive and stay under developed