DATOS DE DEMANDA DE GAS NATURAL EN EEUU AÑOS 1987 - 1992

MES DEMANDA MES DEMANDA MES DEMANDA

1 1,499.2 13 1,633.2 25 1,361.0
2 1,316.5 14 1,462.6 26 1,416.3
3 1,155.5 15 1,178.1 27 1,265.7
4 926.0 16 830.0 28 851.3
5 630.5 17 606.5 29 604.8
6 520.3 18 513.7 30 474.6
7 531.6 19 543.4 31 507.3
8 586.2 20 604.8 32 519.8
9 518.8 21 528.0 33 471.4
10 704.2 22 671.3 34 694.9
11 878.4 23 889.7 35 901.3
12 1,276.2 24 1,244.0 36 1,482.7

MES DEMANDA MES DEMANDA MES DEMANDA

37 1,437.5 49 1,512.9 61 1,395.3
38 1,167.7 50 1,192.0 62 1,194.1
39 1,055.7 51 1,075.6 63 1,070.8
40 824.7 52 763.0 64 834.4
41 598.9 53 551.9 65 575.9
42 483.2 54 434.0 66 458.3
43 478.1 55 472.3 67 431.0
44 523.3 56 438.8 68 441.8
45 498.1 57 448.2 69 462.6
46 635.5 58 617.9 70 700.9
47 834.6 59 900.7 71 996.6
48 1,304.5 60 1,194.3 72 1,344.8
Dem anda (Trillones de BTU)

1,800.0

1,600.0

1,400.0

1,200.0

1,000.0

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0

Mes
 415945283.xls

DATOS PARA 11 AÑOS:

MES No. DEMANDA MES DEMANDA PROMEDIOS

1 1,964.4 1 1499.2
2 1,831.3 2 1316.5
3 1,555.0 3 1155.5
4 1,288.9 4 926.0
5 911.8 5 630.5
6 819.6 6 520.3
7 816.7 7 531.6
8 823.6 8 586.2
9 755.8 9 518.8
10 864.7 10 704.2
11 1,117.5 11 878.4
12 1,413.4 12 1276.2 878.6167
13 1,619.9 13 1633.2
14 1,513.6 14 1462.6
15 1,305.7 15 1178.1
16 1,189.1 16 830.0
17 906.1 17 606.5
18 740.7 18 513.7
19 728.5 19 543.4
20 762.7 20 604.8
21 729.3 21 528.0
22 809.6 22 671.3
23 1,029.7 23 889.7
24 1,522.6 24 1244.0 892.1083
25 1,907.9 25 1361.0
26 1,532.8 26 1416.3
27 1,477.5 27 1265.7
28 1,172.3 28 851.3
29 912.8 29 604.8
30 736.0 30 474.6
31 739.9 31 507.3
32 736.2 32 519.8
33 706.8 33 471.4
34 812.5 34 694.9
35 1,054.5 35 901.3

Page 3
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36 1,372.5 36 1482.7 879.2583

37 1,705.5 37 1437.5
38 1,729.3 38 1167.7
39 1,326.9 39 1055.7
40 1,013.5 40 824.7
41 736.4 41 598.9
42 691.3 42 483.2
43 699.9 43 478.1
44 716.0 44 523.3
45 666.0 45 498.1
46 784.5 46 635.5
47 1,001.6 47 834.6
48 1,544.3 48 1304.5 820.1500
49 1,649.9 49 1512.9
50 1,428.7 50 1192.0
51 1,228.3 51 1075.6
52 892.5 52 763.0
53 709.4 53 551.9
54 602.0 54 434.0
55 574.2 55 472.3
56 568.4 56 438.8
57 571.6 57 448.2
58 663.4 58 617.9
59 926.2 59 900.7
60 1,310.5 60 1194.3 800.1
61 1,499.2 61 1395.3
62 1,316.5 62 1194.1
63 1,155.5 63 1070.8
64 926.0 64 834.4
65 630.5 65 575.9
66 520.3 66 458.3
67 531.6 67 431.0
68 586.2 68 441.8
69 518.8 69 462.6
70 704.2 70 700.9
71 878.4 71 996.6
72 1,276.2 72 1344.8
73 1,633.2 73 ? 825.5
85 1,361.0 ESTIMACIÓN DE FACTORES ESTACIONALES DE INIC
86 1,416.3
87 1,265.7 Valor de j Período Estimación
88 851.3 1 1 1.68914604
89 604.8 2 2 1.48601744
90 474.6 3 3 1.30668188
91 507.3 4 4 1.04908155
92 519.8 5 5 0.71562115
93 471.4 6 6 0.59163409
94 694.9 7 7 0.60560173
95 901.3 8 8 0.66904018
96 1,482.7 9 9 0.59321497

Page 4
 415945283.xls

97 1,437.5 10 10 0.80670622
98 1,167.7 11 11 1.0081391
99 1,055.7 12 12 1.46742911
100 824.7 1 13 1.81257065
101 598.9 2 14 1.62616511
102 483.2 3 15 1.31221845
103 478.1 4 16 0.92616509
104 523.3 5 17 0.67799873
105 498.1 6 18 0.57530326
106 635.5 7 19 0.6096738
107 834.6 8 20 0.67980093
108 1,304.5 9 21 0.59456236
109 1,512.9 10 22 0.75731246
110 1,192.0 11 23 1.00553797
111 1,075.6 12 24 1.40855289
112 763.0 1 25 1.53232852
113 551.9 2 26 1.597511
114 434.0 3 27 1.43026227
115 472.3 4 28 0.96375201
116 438.8 5 29 0.68595192
117 448.2 6 30 0.53927506
118 617.9 7 31 0.57749689
119 900.7 8 32 0.59282257
120 1,194.3 9 33 0.53862088
121 1,395.3 10 34 0.79546775
122 1,194.1 11 35 1.03366019
123 1,070.8 12 36 1.70361465
124 834.4 1 37 1.73384453
125 575.9 2 38 1.41118888
126 458.3 3 39 1.27834367
127 431.0 4 40 1.00059428
128 441.8 5 41 0.72806967
129 462.6 6 42 0.58857776
130 700.9 7 43 0.58351989
131 996.6 8 44 0.63995489
132 1,344.8 9 45 0.61034949
10 46 0.78026609
11 47 1.02676823
12 48 1.60807657

Page 5
 415945283.xls

a1(T) b2(T) cT(T) Pronóstico

1.693578
1.531673
1.333140
0.985833
0.702576
0.574242
0.594637
0.646017
0.584741
0.785683
1.019493
888.361111 -1.624074 1.548386
886.6917 -1.6694 1.6922 1,501.758389
884.2572 -2.4345 1.5102 1,355.564563
881.3705 -2.8867 1.3221 1,175.593479
880.3085 -1.0620 1.0189 866.038200
879.7914 -0.5171 0.7096 617.737897
880.0781 0.2866 0.5827 504.916255
880.7735 0.6954 0.5991 523.497291
882.2471 1.4735 0.6552 569.444018
883.8259 1.5788 0.5859 516.747940
885.7313 1.9054 0.7904 695.647448
886.8557 1.1244 1.0050 904.939314
886.0671 -0.7886 1.4943 1,374.936302
887.6746 1.6075 1.7660 1,498.049520
891.6571 3.9825 1.5753 1,343.035100
895.5033 3.8461 1.3188 1,184.110364
896.8078 1.3045 0.9722 916.318716
896.8098 0.0019 0.6929 637.311107
896.3540 -0.4557 0.5779 522.589895
896.2322 -0.1218 0.6027 536.731426
896.9182 0.6860 0.6648 587.157024
897.7129 0.7947 0.5870 525.877025
897.0330 -0.6799 0.7694 710.150008
896.0212 -1.0118 0.9990 900.816209
893.1334 -2.8878 1.4436 1,337.450010
886.6580 -6.4754 1.6505 1,572.192395
880.7494 -5.9086 1.5917 1,386.535305
877.3870 -3.3623 1.3807 1,153.764758
874.0736 -3.3134 0.9731 849.715125
870.8211 -3.2525 0.6937 603.392336
866.1786 -4.6425 0.5629 501.376217
860.9411 -5.2375 0.5960 519.254139
853.4903 -7.4508 0.6369 568.844954
844.7497 -8.7406 0.5725 496.637272
838.0253 -6.7244 0.7993 643.192795
833.4290 -4.5963 1.0402 830.438198

Page 6
 415945283.xls

834.7803 1.3514 1.6098756 1,196.499011

837.1762 2.3959 1.683791 1,380.034748
836.3938 -0.7824 1.493892 1,336.323369
833.4814 -2.9124 1.323659 1,153.731766
831.0778 -2.4037 0.982696 808.198543
829.7129 -1.3649 0.707774 574.878555
829.2492 -0.4637 0.572806 466.291021
827.9884 -1.2608 0.586698 493.933881
826.5750 -1.4135 0.634997 526.541752
826.5069 -0.0681 0.587591 472.425390
825.4981 -1.0088 0.784562 660.561042
823.8251 -1.6730 1.026639 857.633046
821.7968 -2.0283 1.598625 1,323.562519
822.1307 0.333928 1.7620 1,380.318477
821.728191 -0.402543 1.472247 1,228.673630
821.0638 -0.664437 1.316834 1,087.155270
819.0804 -1.983352 0.957114 806.203098
815.9772 -3.103217 0.692071 578.320402
811.2179 -4.759238 0.553902 465.619303
806.4153 -4.802598 0.586188 473.147970
798.2952 -8.120159 0.592334 509.021315
789.3531 -8.942137 0.577699 464.299563
780.6258 -8.727274 0.788053 612.280895
775.0614 -5.564367 1.094370 792.461181
768.8245 -6.236899 1.576018 1,230.137592
763.4665 -5.358060 1.794795 1,343.682722
759.6973 -3.769115 1.522028 1,116.122665
757.6453 -2.052079 1.365080 995.431653
759.0790 1.433744 1.028171 723.188980
762.6616 3.582574 0.723595 526.328583
768.0789 5.417324 0.575293 424.424281
772.3491 4.270194 0.572113 453.414460
775.6966 3.347507 0.580943 460.017967
779.6957 3.999084 0.585504 450.052825
786.8661 7.170446 0.839401 617.593264
797.5353 10.669169 1.171985 868.970032
809.5570316 12.021728 1.618587 1,273.744755
1,474.565287
ESTACIONALES DE INICIO:

Promedio Normalizados
1.691972 1.693578
1.530221 1.531673
1.331877 1.333140
0.984898 0.985833
0.701910 0.702576
0.573698 0.574242
0.594073 0.594637
0.645405 0.646017
0.584187 0.584741

Page 7
 415945283.xls

0.784938 0.785683
1.018526 1.019493
1.546918 1.548386

Suma = 12.000000
11.988623

Page 8
 415945283.xls

ERROR Abs ERROR ALPHA BETA

0.1000 0.0100

Constantes de Suavización
Alpha Beta
0.030000000000000 1.0000
-2.558389 Mínimo 0.01
-39.064563 Máximo 1.00
-20.093479
59.961800 ECM 4,187.9643
12.762103 Raiz (ECM) 64.71
15.383745 MAD 52.2379
8.102709 1.25*MAD 65.30
16.755982
2.052060 Puntos de partida:
8.552552
-26.539314 1 1
-98.736302 0 0
135.150480 1 1
119.564900 0 1
-6.010364 0.5 0.5
-86.318716 1 0
-30.811107 1 0
-8.889895 0 0
6.668574 0 1
17.642976
2.122975
-38.850008
-11.116209
-93.450010
-211.192395
29.764695
111.935242
1.584875
1.407664
-26.776217
-11.954139
-49.044954
-25.237272
51.707205
70.861802

Page 9
 415945283.xls

286.200989
57.465252
-168.623369
-98.031766
16.501457
24.021445
16.908979
-15.833881
-3.241752
25.674610
-25.061042
-23.033046
-19.062519
132.581523 132.581523
-36.673630 36.673630
-11.555270 11.555270
-43.203098 43.203098
-26.420402 26.420402
-31.619303 31.619303
-0.847970 0.847970
-70.221315 70.221315
-16.099563 16.099563
5.619105 5.619105
108.238819 108.238819
-35.837592 35.837592
51.617278 51.617278
77.977335 77.977335
75.368347 75.368347
111.211020 111.211020
49.571417 49.571417
33.875719 33.875719
-22.414460 22.414460
-18.217967 18.217967
12.547175 12.547175
83.306736 83.306736
127.629968 127.629968
71.055245 71.055245

Page 10
 415945283.xls

GAMMA

0.8900

de Suavización
Gamma
0.500000000

Celda Objetivo = MSE Celda Objetivo = MAD

1.25*MAD MSE 1.25*MAD MSE
0 56.53 3,426.2045 60.15 4,170.6660
0 60.69 3,881.5615 60.15 4,170.6660
1 60.69 3,881.5615 65.26 4,807.6276
1 56.53 3,426.2045 54.88 3,506.5144
0.5 60.69 3,881.5615 59.33 3,994.2024
1 60.69 3,881.5615 59.26 4,118.2340
0 60.69 3,881.5615 60.25 4,142.8467
1 60.69 3,881.5615 59.33 3,999.7237
0 56.53 3,426.2045 54.88 3,506.8894

Page 11
DATOS PARA 11 AÑOS:

MES No. MES DEMANDA PROMEDIOS a1(T)

888.361111
1 1 1499.2 886.6917
2 2 1316.5 884.2572
3 3 1155.5 881.3705
4 4 926.0 880.3085
5 5 630.5 879.7914
6 6 520.3 880.0781
7 7 531.6 880.7735
8 8 586.2 882.2471
9 9 518.8 883.8259
10 10 704.2 885.7313
11 11 878.4 886.8557
12 12 1276.2 878.6167 886.0671
13 13 1633.2 887.6746
14 14 1462.6 891.6571
15 15 1178.1 895.5033
16 16 830.0 896.8078
17 17 606.5 896.8098
18 18 513.7 896.3540
19 19 543.4 896.2322
20 20 604.8 896.9182
21 21 528.0 897.7129
22 22 671.3 897.0330
23 23 889.7 896.0212
24 24 1244.0 892.1083 893.1334
25 25 1361.0 886.6580
26 26 1416.3 880.7494
27 27 1265.7 877.3870
28 28 851.3 874.0736
29 29 604.8 870.8211
30 30 474.6 866.1786
31 31 507.3 860.9411
32 32 519.8 853.4903
33 33 471.4 844.7497
34 34 694.9 838.0253
35 35 901.3 833.4290
36 36 1482.7 879.2583 834.7803
37 37 1437.5 837.1762
38 38 1167.7 836.3938
39 39 1055.7 833.4814
40 40 824.7 831.0778
41 41 598.9 829.7129
42 42 483.2 829.2492
43 43 478.1 827.9884
44 44 523.3 826.5750
45 45 498.1 826.5069
46 46 635.5 825.4981
47 47 834.6 823.8251
48 48 1304.5 820.1500 821.7968
49 49 1512.9 822.1307
50 50 1192.0 821.7282
51 51 1075.6 821.0638
52 52 763.0 819.0804
53 53 551.9 815.9772
54 54 434.0 811.2179
55 55 472.3 806.4153
56 56 438.8 798.2952
57 57 448.2 789.3531
58 58 617.9 780.6258
59 59 900.7 775.0614
60 60 1194.3 768.8245
61 61 1395.3 763.4665
62 62 1194.1 759.6973
63 63 1070.8 757.6453
64 64 834.4 759.0790
65 65 575.9 762.6616
66 66 458.3 768.0789
67 67 431.0 772.3491
68 68 441.8 775.6966
69 69 462.6 779.6957
70 70 700.9 786.8661
71 71 996.6 797.5353
72 72 1344.8 809.5570
73
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 ESTIMACIÓN DE FACTORES ESTACIONALES DE INICIO:
86
87 Valor de j Período Estimación Promedio
88 1 1 1.68914604 1.691972
89 2 2 1.48601744 1.530221
90 3 3 1.30668188 1.331877
91 4 4 1.04908155 0.984898
92 5 5 0.71562115 0.701910
93 6 6 0.59163409 0.573698
94 7 7 0.60560173 0.594073
95 8 8 0.66904018 0.645405
96 9 9 0.59321497 0.584187
 97 10 10 0.80670622 0.784938
98 11 11 1.0081391 1.018526
99 12 12 1.46742911 1.546918
100 1 13 1.81257065
101 2 14 1.62616511 Suma =
102 3 15 1.31221845
103 4 16 0.92616509
104 5 17 0.67799873
105 6 18 0.57530326
106 7 19 0.6096738
107 8 20 0.67980093
108 9 21 0.59456236
109 10 22 0.75731246
110 11 23 1.00553797
111 12 24 1.40855289
112 1 25 1.53232852
113 2 26 1.597511
114 3 27 1.43026227
115 4 28 0.96375201
116 5 29 0.68595192
117 6 30 0.53927506
118 7 31 0.57749689
119 8 32 0.59282257
120 9 33 0.53862088
121 10 34 0.79546775
122 11 35 1.03366019
123 12 36 1.70361465
124 1 37 1.73384453
125 2 38 1.41118888
126 3 39 1.27834367
127 4 40 1.00059428
128 5 41 0.72806967
129 6 42 0.58857776
130 7 43 0.58351989
131 8 44 0.63995489
132 9 45 0.61034949
10 46 0.78026609
11 47 1.02676823
12 48 1.60807657
 b2(T) cT(T) Pronóstico ERROR
1.693578
1.531673
1.333140
0.985833
0.702576
0.574242
0.594637
0.646017
0.584741
0.785683
1.019493
-1.624074 1.548386
-1.6694 1.6922 1,501.758389 -2.558389
-2.4345 1.5102 1,355.564563 -39.064563
-2.8867 1.3221 1,175.593479 -20.093479
-1.0620 1.0189 866.038200 59.961800
-0.5171 0.7096 617.737897 12.762103
0.2866 0.5827 504.916255 15.383745
0.6954 0.5991 523.497291 8.102709
1.4735 0.6552 569.444018 16.755982
1.5788 0.5859 516.747940 2.052060
1.9054 0.7904 695.647448 8.552552
1.1244 1.0050 904.939314 -26.539314
-0.7886 1.4943 1,374.936302 -98.736302
1.6075 1.7660 1,498.049520 135.150480
3.9825 1.5753 1,343.035100 119.564900
3.8461 1.3188 1,184.110364 -6.010364
1.3045 0.9722 916.318716 -86.318716
0.0019 0.6929 637.311107 -30.811107
-0.4557 0.5779 522.589895 -8.889895
-0.1218 0.6027 536.731426 6.668574
0.6860 0.6648 587.157024 17.642976
0.7947 0.5870 525.877025 2.122975
-0.6799 0.7694 710.150008 -38.850008
-1.0118 0.9990 900.816209 -11.116209
-2.8878 1.4436 1,337.450010 -93.450010
-6.4754 1.6505 1,572.192395 -211.192395
-5.9086 1.5917 1,386.535305 29.764695
-3.3623 1.3807 1,153.764758 111.935242
-3.3134 0.9731 849.715125 1.584875
-3.2525 0.6937 603.392336 1.407664
-4.6425 0.5629 501.376217 -26.776217
-5.2375 0.5960 519.254139 -11.954139
-7.4508 0.6369 568.844954 -49.044954
-8.7406 0.5725 496.637272 -25.237272
-6.7244 0.7993 643.192795 51.707205
-4.5963 1.0402 830.438198 70.861802
1.3514 1.6099 1,196.499011 286.200989
2.3959 1.683791 1,380.034748 57.465252
-0.7824 1.493892 1,336.323369 -168.623369
 -2.9124 1.323659 1,153.731766 -98.031766
-2.4037 0.982696 808.198543 16.501457
-1.3649 0.707774 574.878555 24.021445
-0.4637 0.572806 466.291021 16.908979
-1.2608 0.586698 493.933881 -15.833881
-1.4135 0.634997 526.541752 -3.241752
-0.0681 0.587591 472.425390 25.674610
-1.0088 0.784562 660.561042 -25.061042
-1.6730 1.026639 857.633046 -23.033046
-2.0283 1.598625 1,323.562519 -19.062519
0.3339 1.7620 1,380.318477 132.581523
-0.402543 1.472247 1,228.673630 -36.673630
-0.664437 1.316834 1,087.155270 -11.555270
-1.983352 0.957114 806.203098 -43.203098
-3.103217 0.692071 578.320402 -26.420402
-4.759238 0.553902 465.619303 -31.619303
-4.802598 0.586188 473.147970 -0.847970
-8.120159 0.592334 509.021315 -70.221315
-8.942137 0.577699 464.299563 -16.099563
-8.727274 0.788053 612.280895 5.619105
-5.564367 1.094370 792.461181 108.238819
-6.236899 1.576018 1,230.137592 -35.837592
-5.358060 1.794795 1,343.682722 51.617278
-3.769115 1.522028 1,116.122665 77.977335
-2.052079 1.365080 995.431653 75.368347
1.433744 1.028171 723.188980 111.211020
3.582574 0.723595 526.328583 49.571417
5.417324 0.575293 424.424281 33.875719
4.270194 0.572113 453.414460 -22.414460
3.347507 0.580943 460.017967 -18.217967
3.999084 0.585504 450.052825 12.547175
7.170446 0.839401 617.593264 83.306736
10.669169 1.171985 868.970032 127.629968
12.021728 1.618587 1,273.744755 71.055245
1,474.565287 -1,474.565287
1,250.466279

Normalizados
1.693578
1.531673
1.333140
0.985833
0.702576
0.574242
0.594637
0.646017
0.584741
0.785683
1.019493
1.548386

12.000000
11.988623
Abs ERROR ALPHA BETA GAMMA

0.1000 0.0100 0.8900

Constantes de Suavización
Alpha Beta Gamma
0.04335066 1.0000 0.745232738
Mínimo 0.01
Máximo 1.00

ECM 4,187.9643
Raiz (ECM) 64.71
MAD 52.2379
1.25*MAD 65.30

Puntos de partida:
1.25*MAD
1 1 0
0 0 0
1 1 1
0 1 1
0.5 0.5 0.5
1 0 1
1 0 0
0 0 1
0 1 0
 132.581523
36.673630
11.555270
43.203098
26.420402
31.619303
0.847970
70.221315
16.099563
5.619105
108.238819
35.837592
51.617278
77.977335
75.368347
111.211020
49.571417
33.875719
22.414460
18.217967
12.547175
83.306736
127.629968
71.055245
1,474.565287
 Celda Objetivo = MSE Celda Objetivo = MAD
1.25*MAD MSE 1.25*MAD MSE
56.53 3,426.2045 60.15 4,170.6660
60.69 3,881.5615 60.15 4,170.6660
60.69 3,881.5615 65.26 4,807.6276
56.53 3,426.2045 54.88 3,506.5144
60.69 3,881.5615 59.33 3,994.2024
60.69 3,881.5615 59.26 4,118.2340
60.69 3,881.5615 60.25 4,142.8467
60.69 3,881.5615 59.33 3,999.7237
56.53 3,426.2045 54.88 3,506.8894
VENTAS (Trillones de BTU)
VENTAS DE GAS NATURAL EN ESTADOS UNIDOS 1982 - 1992

2,200.0

2,000.0

1,800.0

1,600.0

1,400.0

1,200.0

1,000.0

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21
1 1 1 1 1 1

MES
Demanda (Trillones de BTU)

DEMANDA Pronóstico
1800.0

1600.0

1400.0

1200.0

1000.0

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0

Mes