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Demolition vs. refurbishment for the old houses : a regional cost - benefit analysis ECEEE

Demolition vs. refurbishment for the old houses: a regional cost- benefit analysis

for the old houses : a regional cost - benefit analysis ECEEE – panel 5 09

ECEEE – panel 5 09 june 2011

Dominique OSSO, Benoit ALLIBE, Marie-Hélène LAURENT

regional cost - benefit analysis ECEEE – panel 5 09 june 2011 Dominique OSSO, Benoit ALLIBE,
regional cost - benefit analysis ECEEE – panel 5 09 june 2011 Dominique OSSO, Benoit ALLIBE,

Switching from old inefficient individual house to small efficient multi-storey building (France)

Context : reduction of urban sprawl in favour of denser urban structure by building a Context : reduction of urban sprawl in favour of denser urban structure by building a small multi-storey dwelling in place of an individual house

Methodology based on a cross-sectional survey and regional figures Methodology based on a cross-sectional survey and regional figures

Assessment of the energy savings between 2 options: Assessment of the energy savings between 2 options:

retrofitting retrofitting

new building new building

Evaluation of co-benefit on the transportation side Evaluation of co-benefit on the transportation side

Exploration of the link between the potential of demolition (i.e. the estate market pressure) and Exploration of the link between the potential of demolition (i.e. the estate market pressure) and the energy consumption:

9 urbanized regions are corresponding to 60% of the population (limit between rural and urban 9 urbanized regions are corresponding to 60% of the population (limit between rural and urban areas 98 inhab./km ² )

2 – ECEEE 2011

Old individual house

between rural and urban areas 98 inhab ./km ² ) 2 – ECEEE 2011 Old individual
between rural and urban areas 98 inhab ./km ² ) 2 – ECEEE 2011 Old individual
Small muti-storey building
Small muti-storey building
between rural and urban areas 98 inhab ./km ² ) 2 – ECEEE 2011 Old individual

Current scenario for new buildings

New buildings in France (2005 data)

for new buildings New buildings in France (2005 data) !   Rural areas: 140,000 units (80%

!   Rural areas: 140,000 units (80% individual houses) ! Urban and suburb areas : 110,000 units (60% multi-dwellings)

units (80% individual houses) ! Urban and suburb areas : 110,000 units (60% multi- dwellings )
units (80% individual houses) ! Urban and suburb areas : 110,000 units (60% multi- dwellings )

3 – ECEEE 2011

units (80% individual houses) ! Urban and suburb areas : 110,000 units (60% multi- dwellings )

Which options ?

A refurbished individual house 1 household in urban area •   •   Energy efficiency
A refurbished
individual house
1 household in urban
area
•  
•   Energy efficiency
•  Transportation by car
4 – ECEEE 2011
efficiency •  Transportation by car 4 – ECEEE 2011 A small multi-storey building •   several
A small multi-storey building •   several households in urban area •   Energy efficiency
A small multi-storey
building
•   several households in
urban area
•   Energy efficiency and
sufficiency
•   Reduction of urban
sprawl (transportation co-
benefit)
urban area •   Energy efficiency and sufficiency •   Reduction of urban sprawl (transportation co-
urban area •   Energy efficiency and sufficiency •   Reduction of urban sprawl (transportation co-

Data used

Cross-sectional data: 2012 representative French households database (June 2009) – housing and transportation survey

Topic !

Dwelling

characteristics

Space

heating

Dwelling

environment

Socio-

economical

Behaviour

Energy

consumption

system

data

(bills)

Number of question

39

9

4

16

12

5

Regional data (21 areas) !   MEDDTL (Ministry of energy, environment and housing) !   National statistics agency (INSEE) !   Solicitor's office survey (notary)

and housing) !   National statistics agency (INSEE) !   Solicitor's office survey (notary) 5 –
and housing) !   National statistics agency (INSEE) !   Solicitor's office survey (notary) 5 –
and housing) !   National statistics agency (INSEE) !   Solicitor's office survey (notary) 5 –

5 – ECEEE 2011

and housing) !   National statistics agency (INSEE) !   Solicitor's office survey (notary) 5 –
Theoretical analysis A regional viewpoint
Theoretical analysis
A regional viewpoint

6 – ECEEE 2011

Theoretical analysis A regional viewpoint 6 – ECEEE 2011

cost of an existing house ( )

Regional estate market in France

Provence – Alpes – Côte d’Azur (inc. Presqu’ile de Gien) 160000 2500 Ile de France
Provence – Alpes – Côte d’Azur (inc. Presqu’ile de Gien)
160000
2500
Ile de France (inc. Paris)
140000
2000
120000
100000
1500
80000
average price of parcel
(Euro)
average surface of parcel
1000
60000
(m
² )
40000
500
20000
0
0
Cost ( € )
surface (m ² )

30

130

500 20000 0 0 Cost ( € ) surface (m ² ) 30 130 230 330

230

330

530

regional density (inhabitant/km ²)

430

630

730

830

New buildings – plot of land’s cost and plot size

Price of purchase of an existing house

7 – ECEEE 2011

size Price of purchase of an existing house 7 – ECEEE 2011 930 1 030 400

930

1 030

400 000 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50
400
000
350
000
300
000
250
000
200
000
150
000
100
000
50 000
-

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

regional density (inhabitant/km ² )

Year 2009 data

000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 - 0 200 400 600 800 1

Comparison between the cost of individual and multi-storey new buildings

the cost of individual and multi-storey new buildings !   In dense area (>98 inhab ./km

!   In dense area (>98 inhab./km ² ) cost of a new flat is lower to the cost of a new individual house

1,3 1,2 1,1 New flat more expensive 1,0 New house more expensive 0,9 0,8 0,7
1,3
1,2
1,1
New flat more expensive
1,0
New house more expensive
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
cost of new flat/cost of new house

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

regional density (inhabitant/km ² )

900

1 000

Ratio of total cost between new flat and refurbished existing house in relation to regional density

8 ECEEE 2011

Year 2009 data

flat and refurbished existing house in relation to regional density 8 – E C E E

Comparison between the cost of refurbishment vs. new multi-family building

the cost of refurbishment vs. new multi-family building !   In dense area (>98 inhab ./km

!   In dense area (>98 inhab./km ² ) cost of a new flat is lower to the cost of purchasing an existing house and refurbishing it

1,3 1,2 1,1 New flat more expensive 1,0 0,9 Old retrofitted house more expensive 0,8
1,3
1,2
1,1
New flat more expensive
1,0
0,9
Old retrofitted house
more expensive
0,8
0,7
0,6
cost odf a new flat / cost of an purchase
and retroffiting of an old house

30

230

430

630

830

1 030

regional density (inhabitant/km ² )

Ratio of total cost between new flat and refurbished existing house in relation to regional density

Year 2009 data

total cost between new flat and refurbished existing house in relation to regional density Year 2009

9 – ECEEE 2011

Space heating consumption of old individual houses – a link with density ?

of old individual houses – a link with density ? !   No correlation between theoretical

!   No correlation between theoretical (EPC) or observed consumption (energy bills) with regional density !   Theoretical space heating efficiency: 304 kWh/m ² !   Observed consumption: 177 kWh/m ²

304 kWh/m ² !   Observed consumption: 177 kWh/m ² it seems to be an error,
304 kWh/m ² !   Observed consumption: 177 kWh/m ² it seems to be an error,
it seems to be an error, in forecasting scenario, to think that demolished houses were
it seems to be an error,
in forecasting scenario,
to think that demolished
houses were those with
the lowest efficiency (i.e.
the highest energy
consumption)

Specific consumption (observed and theoretical) for space heating (kWh/m ² ) in accordance with regional density for old houses (built before 1975) in the cross sectional data

10 ECEEE 2011

EPC: Energy Performance Certificate

before 1975) in the cross sectional data 1 0 – E C E E E 2
Case studies
Case studies

11 – ECEEE 2011

Case studies 11 – ECEEE 2011

Two case studies & a reference

Two case studies & a reference !   Reference situation: (1) individual old house and located
Two case studies & a reference !   Reference situation: (1) individual old house and located
Two case studies & a reference !   Reference situation: (1) individual old house and located
Two case studies & a reference !   Reference situation: (1) individual old house and located

!   Reference situation: (1) individual old house and located in urban area (and 9 average dwellings)

!   Refurbishment scenario: refurbishment of an (1) old house located in an urban area coupled with Refurbishment scenario: refurbishment of an (1) old house located in an urban area coupled with the construction of (9) new houses in rural area (continuous urban sprawl)

of (9) new houses in rural area (continuous urban sprawl) !   Demolition scenario: demolition of

!   Demolition scenario: demolition of an old house and replacement by a (10) multi- dwelling building in an urban area (limited urban sprawl)

12 – ECEEE 2011

Energy consumption and cost for the scenarios

Space heating consumption (MWh/dw) depending on location (rural/urban) and age of building (<1975 or >2000 )

Region (limit: 98 inhab./km ² )

old building

old building

new flat

new house

Average

refurbished

without

retrofit

dwelling

High density

-

-

-

7.5

13.1

Low density

8.0

18.7

4.6

-

Costs () of different options in relation to population density

Region (limit: 98 inhab./km ² )

Purchase of

Retrofitting of old house

Demolition of old house

Purchase of

Purchase of

old house

new flat

new house

High density

244,800

37,651

20,000

202,168

-

Low density

-

-

-

-

230,131

13 – ECEEE 2011

Year 2009 data

37,651 20,000 202,168 - Low density - - - - 230,131 13 – ECEEE 2011 Year

Energy consumption for transportation

Energy consumption for transportation !   short distance travels are concerned (data from cross-sectional survey)

!   short distance travels are concerned (data from cross-sectional survey)

Region (limit: 98 inhab./km ² )

Minimal distance to collective transportation system (km)

Expense for petrol dedicated to local travels ()

Assessed

consumption

 

(kWh)**

Old house

2.7

892

7993

New flat in high density area

1.8

789

7069

New house in low density area

3.0

841

7540

14 – ECEEE 2011

*1.14 /l

minimal distance to collective transportation system* (km)

1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 rural peri-urban suburbs inner city
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
rural
peri-urban
suburbs
inner city

*bus, underground, tramway or train

(km) 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 rural peri-urban suburbs inner city *bus, underground,

Energy consumption for the 10 households

Energy consumption for the 10 households !   Only space heating consumption is differentiating scenarios 250

!   Only space heating consumption is differentiating scenarios

250 transportation (MWh) space heating (MWh) 80 200 150 76 137 71 100 75 50
250
transportation (MWh)
space heating (MWh)
80
200
150
76
137
71
100
75
50
46
0
MWh/year

15 – ECEEE 2011

reference

demolition scenario

refurbishment scenario

200 150 76 137 71 100 75 50 46 0 MWh/year 15 – ECEEE 2011 reference

Cost of saved energy (CSE)

Cost of saved energy (CSE) ! space heating and transportation energy savings considered 16 – ECEEE

! space heating and transportation energy savings considered

16 – ECEEE 2011

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

CSE ( /kWh)

Demolition scenario is 36% less costly 36 23
Demolition
scenario is
36% less
costly
36
23

demolition scenario

15 10 5 0 CSE ( € /kWh) Demolition scenario is 36% less costly 36 23

refurbishment scenario

15 10 5 0 CSE ( € /kWh) Demolition scenario is 36% less costly 36 23
15 10 5 0 CSE ( € /kWh) Demolition scenario is 36% less costly 36 23

Sensitivity analysis to flat number

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

overcost of demolition vs. retrofit (%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
overcost of demolition vs. retrofit (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
number of dwellings

Impact of the number of new flat built on CSE

17 – ECEEE 2011

of the number of new flat built on CSE 17 – ECEEE 2011 38,0 36,0 34,0
38,0 36,0 34,0 32,0 30,0 28,0 26,0 24,0 refurbishment 22,0 demolition 20,0 CSE ( €
38,0
36,0
34,0
32,0
30,0
28,0
26,0
24,0
refurbishment
22,0
demolition
20,0
CSE ( € /kWh)

0

1

3

number of dwellings

2

4

5

6

32,0 30,0 28,0 26,0 24,0 refurbishment 22,0 demolition 20,0 CSE ( € /kWh) 0 1 3

Conclusion – (even if exploratory works)

Accessibility of plot of land partly linked to population density (necessity to reduced urban sprawl) Accessibility of plot of land partly linked to population density (necessity to reduced urban sprawl)

Energy efficiency and consumption without any correlation with population density (not the poorest efficient dwellings Energy efficiency and consumption without any correlation with population density (not the poorest efficient dwellings demolished)

New small multi-dwelling buildings is more profitable than retrofitting of old house (less costly when New small multi-dwelling buildings is more profitable than retrofitting of old house (less costly when > 8 dwellings)

Only small co-benefit on the transportation side Only small co-benefit on the transportation side

How to implement such policy : How to implement such policy :

the transportation side   How to implement such policy : pre-emption right on house for sale

pre-emption right on house for sale by the municipality

18 – ECEEE 2011

side   How to implement such policy : pre-emption right on house for sale by the