BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY

COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

PROPOSAL ON THE ASSESSMENT OF DETERMINANTS

AND CONSEQUENCES OF FOOD INSECURITY: THE
CASE OF THE BAHIR DAR TOWN

Prepared by:

Name ID. Number

1. Abebe Kidane 430/03

2. Abebe Marineh 0505451
3. Abiyu Tadege 0505469
4. Abrham Hunegnew 0505475

January,2007 E.C

Bahir Dar
 1. Introduction

1.1. Background of the Study

Food is essential in human beings like, enough foods in terms of quality and
quantity for all people is an important factor for a nation to continue its dev’t.
lack of food in long-term will lead to hunger and starvation that cause death.
So that enough food is necessary condition to be well nourished.

However, the world is home to over 1 billion undernourished people, over 98%
of whom givers in the developing world (FAO,2008). The population of the
developing world is becoming more urban, with the urban population projected
to double form 1.7 billion in 1995 to 3.4 billion in 2010, Maxwell urban
livelihood & food, and nutrition security in greater Accra, Ghana these
countries are not capable enough to provide sufficient food for their expanding
urban population, this lead to increased food in security and prevalence of
poverty in the urban areas.

Urban population in Africa are growing rapidly and inequality is increasing the
major urban food problems of 1970s and 1980s food shortage and price shocks
have apparently been largely resolved at least in the short to medium term.
Because of this, urban food security having been defined as the issue of
feeding the cities has dropped off the political agenda of urban planners and
urban mangers, indeed, specifically urban food security problem in Africa
receive little alternation form national food or nutrition policy planners,
Maxwell. D. the political economy of urban food security in sub-Sahara Africa.
World development 27(11), 1939-1953.

As in many developing countries, food security assessments in Ethiopia have

traditionally focused on rural areas, where the majority of the total population
as well as the poorest and most food insecure segment of the population lives
Mekonnen T: determinates and dynamics of urban poverty in Ethiopia.
Ethiopian journal of economics 8(1). Addis Ababa, 2000. Nevertheless, the
global increase of cereals and pulse price and the global financial crisis has put
challenges on and increase food insecurity in the urban areas of the country.

This, further deriving by unemployment, underemployment, lack of sanitation,

rising cost of giving, reduce interdependency among urban households,
household composition, low asset ownership, low level of education, high
dependency on the informal sector, HIV AIDS (estimated 7.7% prevalence in
the urban areas) and increased population pressure due to natural growth and
rural-urban migration.

In our study area, Bahir Dar city, among major cities of the country the
problem of food security is exacerbated by different factor:

Such as homelessness caused by unfair distribution of employment

opportunities, poverty, disability and high rural- urban migration9Mushir Ali,
status of homeless population in urban, Ethiopia: a case study of Amhara
region. Mekele University, Ethiopia) Lack of roper sanitation due to weak
implementation of regional sanitation regulation in Bahir Dar, Fesseha Hailu,
liquid waste management; the case of Bahir Dar Ethiopia, lack of proper waste
disposal because of the absence of conventional municipal waste water
collection and testament, inaccessibility of basic services like credit service, the
low and unreliable income, absence of panning culture and their dependence
up on the traditional like head strategies in the modern ton aggravated their
poverty and problems to access basic services particularly in Negede Woyto
community, Fessha Hailu, likelihood strategies and accesses to basic services
of the Negede Weyto community in Bahir Dar town, Ethiopia.

These above mentioned health, income, employment and other services.

Related problems caused many households of Bahir Dar City to be food
insecured.
 1.2. Statement of the Problem

Though Ethiopian has abundant natural resources, most of its socio- economic
indicators are extremely low. In Ethiopia food shortage has aggravated the
already poor economy of the country. Both chronic and transitory problems of
food insecurity are wide spread and sever in both rural and urban areas of the
country, federal democratic republic of Ethiopia, food security strategy, FDRE,
Addis Ababa, 2002.

However, a lot of studies conducted so far in the filed give more emphasis to
the rural area of the country. But such partial assessment do not verify
situations at glass root level and hide the true food insecurity problem of the
country. Furthermore such studies do not look the relying causes of food
insecurity of household at the urban setting. The extent of food insecurity
problems differs form place to place and in accordance with the social position
and cultural life condition.

In the study area, Bahir Dar City, many households are suffering form food
insecurity. Not only the lack of qualified and nutritious food but also the
quantity consumed is very low and inconstant that varies form time to time.
This is because the income of these households is highly variable due to lack of
permanent employment and in accessibility of means of income. There is even
absence of physical access to food for some house holds. These households
that are mostly affected by the above food insecurity problems live in poorly
facilitated area due to low cost of living (high cost of living like rent cost in
facilitated areas of the city). Households that lives around the university of
Bahir Dar with the above economic character (living standard) are getting food
aid form the caffe of Bahir Dar universities. But this food I under nourished,
which may be offa (Ketemari Yeterefe) or perished (spoilt or outdated). This is
the main indicator of food insecurity in this specific area and is the most
important. Problem on which we are interested to conduct analysis. So that
research undertaking in area of food insecurity at the Bahir Dar City is
essential since the result may give spot light to development planners in order
to combat its problem at the urban level.

1.3. Research question

This study has the following specific questions:

 What are the major factors that determines the probability of households
to be food insecure?
 How sever is food in security among house holds in the study area?
 What are the major consequences of food in security?

1.4. Objective of the study

1.4.1. General objective of the study will be

To examine the socio- economic determinates of food insecurity among the

urban households in Bahir Dar City

1.4.2. The specific objectives of the study will be

 To identify the determinants of food insecurity among urban households.

 To estimate the food insecurity gap and its severity among urban
households, in Bahir Dar City.
 To know the consequences of food insecurity in the study area.
 1.5. Hypothesis

 Households with large size are more prone to food insecurity and
households engaged in more income generating activities households
with access to credit service, households head with better education and
employment, are less likely to face food insecurity compared to those
with less of the above economic characteristics of households.
 The severity index is more likely to be higher in households with large
size, old head age, low access to credit service with out access to
employment and illiterate household head.
 The consequences of food insecurity are likely to be:
- Physical weakness and hence low incentive to work
- Easily affected by infectious disease
- Low cognitive capacity, low quality of education, low creativity and
hence, human capital
- Low moral standard.

1.6. Significant of the study

A study of determinants of food insecurity in urban households is vital because

it provides with information that will enable effective measures to be taken so
as to improve food insecurity states and bring the success of food security
development programs. It will also enable development practitioners and policy
makers to have better knowledge as to where and how to intervene in urban
areas to bring food security or minimize the severity of food insecurity area
specific identification of determinants of the food insecurity will ease the
implementation of different development projects in Bahir Dar City.
 1.7. Scope of the study

The study will be conducted in Bahir Dar City which is the capital city of
Amhara national regional state in the federal democratic republic of Ethiopia. It
is located at 11’’38’ North and 37’’ 10’ East on the southern side of Lake Tana.
The city covers an area of 16,000 hectares arranged by 17 kebeles. For the
study area will be selected form these kebeles based on subjective judgment in
order to analyze the most food insecure kebeles of the city[7].

The study will try to asses the problems of food insecurity among households
by remaining various factors that makes households food secure & insecure
such as household size, household head age, sex, education access to credit
service, access to employment, and food aid. This also covers calorie
calculation for each household to measure the severity of food insecurity in the
city.
 1.8. Review Literature

Food insecurity definition is forwarded by different researchers and

international organizations. According to world bank, 1986,food insecurity can
be defined as lack of capability to produce food an top provide access to all
pole at all time to enough food for an active and health (World bank, poverty
and hunger: issues and options for food security in developing countries: a
world bank policy study Washington DC.1986).

Hamilton defined food insecurity as limited and/or uncertain availability on

nutritionally adequate and safe goods or limited & uncertain ability to acquire
acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways (Bickel, G, in 1996). In 1996, the
world food summity explain that food insecurity exists when people lack secure
access to sufficient amount of safe and nitrous food for normal growth and
development & an active and healthy life. This definition integrated stability
access to food, availability of nutritionally adequate food & the biological
utilization of food. According to the world food programmed the main
determinants of food insecurity in urban areas are food availability, food supply
in the market, food access, purchasing power and access to market and food
utilization, health and morbidity status(world food programme, summary of
food security & vulnerability in selected urban centers of Ethiopia, UNECEF,
Addis Ababa, 2009. The study conducted by board slowed that household
ability to achieve food security in urban areas is derived form households
human, material & institutional resource bases, (Bonnard,p.2000).

In Ethiopia the problems of food insecurity is almost the same with other
developing countries world food porgamme stated the common factors that
cause household. Food insecurity in urban areas of the country are household
size, age of the households, sex of the households loads, marital status of the
households. Education level of the household, dependency ratio, access to
credit services, ownership of saving accounts, total income per adult
equivalent, expenditure level (food & non-food), asset possessions, access to
social services, owners of home garden, access to subsidized food source of
food availability of food commodity and supply of food commodities, (world food
programmers mummery food security). An other empirical evidence conducted
by Girma Geximu Gebre in Addis Ababa 2012, identifies that the determinants
of food insecurity are education levels of house hold head, credit service, asset
possessions and access to employment, (Girmna Gezimu,2012).

As above mentioned empirical evidences and researches were conducted on the

food insecurity in other areas ,not in Bahir Dar City. No researches conducted
on food security in Bahir Dar City, our study area, but there are many
theoretical and empirical literatures on food insecurity. There are theoretical
literatures we review in defining what food security mean. Among those, some
are listed above.

There are researches conducted in Bahir Dar City on status of homeless

population in urban Ethiopia, a case of study of Amhara region, Bahir Dar city
9Mushir Ali), which present work is an attempt to describe the socio-economic
status of homeless people. This research is different form ours in content. What
we need to conduct analysis on is food insecurity, while this research is on
soico - economic status of homeless people. But this research is very important
in the analysis of the problem, determinant and consequence of food insecurity
which our basic problem of food security.

The other empirical literature the we review is the research conducted on the
“livelihood, strategies and access to basic services of the “Negede” “Woyto”
community in Bahir Dar town, Ethiopia, (Fessha Hailu Mekonen). This
research is, relatively have a small difference with our research that studies
about food insecurity problem for which the access to basic services is the
major determinant factor. As some researchers conclude that basic access to
services like credit, resources, etc are the major factors of food insecurity, the
same is occurred in our study area, Bahir Dar City. The main thing that makes
our study differ form this research is, what we are interested is to study the
over all food insecurity determinants and consequences, while the Fessha
Mekonnen’s research is conducted on only the single determinant factors of
food insecurity in the same area of study.

There are also other researches conducted on the specific or single

determinants of food insecurity problem. Such as, Fessha Mekonen liquid
waste management, the case of Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia. This research studied
about the environmental pollution by different factors which lead to unwanted
health problem. Thus, because, their consumptions food is one of the criteria of
food security according to its definition. Therefore, this research is also
conducted on a single determinant factor of food security, which makes our
study differ form that one. There are also the same types of researches
conducted in the areas of the study Bahir Dar Town.

These researchers conducted their research on one of the determinants of food

insecurity, rather than some of major determinant factors and consequences of
food insecurity.

Generally, even though there is no research conducted on finding major

determinants and consequences of food insecurity, some empirical literatures
reviewed form some researches conducted on some socio- economic
characteristics of households which is not directly related to food insecurity
problems like above mentioned researchers helps us to detect and identify
determinants and consequences of food insecurity in the area of the study.
 2. Research Methodology

2.1. Data type and source

The data we will collect in this study are both quantitative and qualitative data.
Data sources are from primary and secondary sources primary data sources
are the sample respondent households head. On the hand, secondary data
sources are from the kebele’s institutions.

2.2. Method of data collection and sampling techniques

The method of data collection we use for primary data is interviewing the
households that are selected by random sampling techniques form purposively
selected two- kebeles form total 17 kebeles of the town. We select two kebeles
form total 17 kebeles using purposive sampling technique because our target is
studying and assessing the poor and food insecure kebeles of the town. Form
these purposively selected kebeles, because each kebele may have different
population size, the sample households should be selected form each kebeles
for good representation of the population.

2.3. Method of data Analysis

The data will be subjected to both descriptive statistics and econometric

analysis such as the food insecurity severity measurement like head count
index (HCI), overage shortfall(ASF), food insecurity gap, which are a good
measurements of the severity of food insecurity among households and binary
logic regression model to analyze the significances of the determinants
2.3.1. Descriptive analysis

2.3.1.1. Analysis of food security status

The food item and its quantity consumed by households will be converted in to
their respective carries. Then, to get the average amount consumed by single
household per day (average household food security) divide total colonies
consumed by a house hold size in adult equivalent.

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑

HFSI = ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑

i.e. HFS: = ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡

Where, HFSi = household food security of the ith household and I = 1,2,3…..0.

This shows, we are getting the total level of calories that, in average, a single
adult consumes per day.

Therefore, based on this value, households food security status can be

determined that those households whose HFS is greater or below to 2200 the
Ethiopian recommended consumed calories per adult per day) is generalized as
a household is food secure or insecure respectively.

From the above finding, we can calculate the head count index (HCI) as

𝑚
HCI = x 100, where m = number of food insecure HHS
𝑛

n = number of total sample size

2.3.1.2. Analysis of food insecurity gap

This help us to know, the severity of food insecurity among households

 Food insecurity gap (FIG)

 𝑇𝐶𝑅𝑖−𝑇𝑐𝑐𝐼
FIGi = , where, TCRi = total calorie requirement for the ith food insecure
𝑇𝐶𝑅𝑖

household.

TCCI = total calorie consumption by the ith food insecure households

 Total food insecurity gap (TFIG) -0 indicates the depth of food

insecurity among households.

𝑚
𝐹𝐼𝐺𝑖
𝑇𝐹𝐼𝐺𝑖 = ∑ , 𝑚 = 𝑛𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑠
𝑚
𝑖=1

 Squared food insecurity gap (SFIG) – indicates the severity of food

 Insecurity among households.

𝑚
(𝐹𝐼𝐺𝑖)2
𝑆𝐹𝐼𝐺𝑖 = ∑
𝑚
𝑖=1

2.3.2. Econometrics analysis

To examine the effect of demographic and socio- economic characteristics on

food sincerity and the probability of households being food insecure, data will
be collected on the variables, household size, household head age, sex,
education, access to credit service, access to employment and food aid. On the
assumption that the probability of a household being food insecure is
determined by those exogenous households socio- economic and demographic
variables that capture the true economy status of the households, the
underlying response variable in case of binary status is defined by binary logic
regression model. Following Guajarati (16) and the functional form of logit
model is specified as:

1
P(Yi = 1) = Bo +B1xi)
1+𝑒 −

Where , P(yi=1) the probability of a household being food insecure

For simplicity, we rewrite the above equation as:

1
P(yi=1) = , where 2 is the functional of “n” explanatory vairbales.
1+𝑒 𝑧

If P(yi=1) – is the probability of being insecured, then the probability of being

food secure is -> 1- P(yi=1)

1
1- 1+𝑒 −𝑧

𝑃 (𝑦𝑖 = 1)
= 𝑒 𝑧𝑖 This equasion is the add ration of the probability of being food
1−𝑃(𝑦𝑖=1)

isncuere to probability of being food secure, then taking it in to natural

logarithm to cancel e, then

𝑃(𝑦𝑖=1)
𝑙𝑛 [1−𝑃(𝑦𝑖=1)] Zi

Zi = Bo+B1x1+B2x2+B3x3+……+Bnxn+ui

Where, Bo is the intercept and other B is are the slope of the equation in the
model, and X is the vector of relevant household characteristic.
3. Time and Budget schedule

3.1. Time Schedule

The time that the research will take considers all activities so as to achieve
research main objectives.

Activities Time
Preparation of proposal Yikatit 25,2007- march 20,2007
Data collection March 25,2007 – April 30,2007
Organizing the data May 3,2007 – May 19,2007
Data analyzing May 22 – May 30,2007
Preparing the final paper June 5 – June 12,2007
Submission of the final document To be officially seated

3.2. Budget schedule

Cost estimate of the research project

No Item Unit Quantity Unit price(in Total

birr) price
1 Pen Paco 1 3.5 17
2 Paper Realm 5 100 500
3 Text writing Page 80 4 320
4 Photo copy Page 80 0.4 32
5 Transportation - - - 200
6 Misllanious - - 260 300
expense
Total 1527
 References

1. Sila.O. And Pellokila R,2007: Socio Economic Indicators Of Affecting Food

Security, University of Philippines At Los Banos.
2. FAO: 2008, the State of Food Insecurity In The World.
3. Maxwell, D: Urban Livelihood and Food Nutrition Security in Accra Ghana.
4. Maxwell. D: The Political Economy of Urban Food Security in Sub- Saharan
Africa, World Development 27(11), 1939-1953.
5. Mekonen. T., 2000.Determinants and Dynamics of Urban Poverty in
Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Addis Ababa.
6. World Food Prorgamme” 2009, Summary of Food Insecurity and
Vulnerability in Selected Urban Centers of Ethiopian UNICEF. Addis City,
2010. Report.
7. Soild Waste Characterization and Quantification of Bahir Dar City,
2010reprot.
8. Mushir Ali, Status of Homeless Population in Urban Ethiopia: A Case Study
Of Amhara Region, Mekele University, Ethiopia.
9. Fessha Hailu: Liquid Waste Management. The Case of Bahir Dar.
10. Federal Democratic Public of Ethiopia: 2002 Food Security Strategy. FDRE,
Addis Ababa.
11. Shishay Kahsay and Messay Mulugeta: Determinants of Rural Households
Food Insecurity in Laey Mauchew Woreda. Tigray Ethiopia, Graduate
Students of Axum University.
12. Adugn Enyew And Wagayehu Bekele: Cause of Households Food Insecurity
In Welayita Southern Ethiopia, Schools of Graduate Students In Jimma
University.
13. Abebaw S. 2005, Dimension And Determinants of Rural House Holds Food
Security In Dire Dawa Eastern Ethiopia: Schools of Graduates Students of
Alemaya University.
14. Bonnard P: 2000: Assessing Urban Food Security: Adjusting the Fews
Rural Vulnerability Assessment Frame Work to Urban Environment USAID,
Washington DC.
15. Bickle G. Guide to Measuring Households Food Security.
16. Girma Gezimu Gebre Determinants of Food Security Among Households In
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia,2012.
17. Gujarati, 23ed Edition Econometrics, Binary Logit Regression Model
18. Fessha Hailu: Likelihood, Strategies and Access to Basic Services of the
Negede Wayto “Community.
 Table of Contents
Content Page
1. Introduction .............................................................................................. 1

1.1. Background of the Study ........................................................................ 1

1.2. Statement of the Problem ....................................................................... 3

1.3. Research question .................................................................................. 4

1.4. Objective of the study ............................................................................. 4

1.4.1. General objective of the study will be ................................................... 4

1.4.2. The specific objectives of the study will be ............................................. 4

1.5. Hypothesis ............................................................................................. 5

1.6. Significant of the study ........................................................................... 5

1.7. Scope of the study .................................................................................. 6

1.8. Review Literature.................................................................................... 7

2. Research Methodology............................................................................... 10

2.1. Data type and source ............................................................................. 10

2.2. Method of data collection and sampling techniques ................................ 10

2.3. Method of data Analysis ......................................................................... 10

2.3.1. Descriptive analysis ............................................................................ 11

2.3.1.1. Analysis of food security status ........................................................ 11

2.3.1.2. Analysis of food insecurity gap ......................................................... 11

2.3.2. Econometrics analysis ......................................................................... 12

3. Time and Budget schedule ........................................................................ 14

3.1. Time Schedule ....................................................................................... 14

3.2. Budget schedule .................................................................................... 14

References .................................................................................................... 15