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PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 9.
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
* From Tiananmen Square to Possible Buffett Successor published in The Wall Street Journal
on July 30, 2010
We anticipate Berkshire should deliver strong 3Q operating results with robust results in
Manufacturing, Service, & Retail and Burlington Northern, stable results in Insurance and
Utilities, and perhaps volatile investment results.
BRK.B currently trades at 1.44x 2Q10 BV (2.09x tangible BV), which is below its historical
median of 1.7x (historical range: 1.1x-2.7x). Our $88 price target is based on 1.3x YE 2011E
BV of $68.
Berkshire Hathaway’s 3Q10 operating EPS per Class B share could be $1.31 ($1,960 per
A share), up 48% compared to a year ago, driven by improved results in Insurance,
Burlington Northern, and the Manufacturing, Service & Retail segments.
First-quarter comprehensive EPS per B share could be $2.48 vs. $4.96 per B share a year
ago. Based on our assessment of potential investment marks, our current thinking is
that Berkshire’s linked-qtr BV could rise 4% in 3Q10 to $60.25 per B share.
Pre-tax unrealized net investment gains could be $4.5 billion in the most recent quarter
versus gains of $12.7 billion a year ago.
Total Insurance pre-tax operating income could increase 17% year-over-year to $2.2
billion. Total underwriting income could be $740 million in 3Q10 versus $560 million a
year ago, reflecting solid results at GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Re, and GenRe. The
segment’s total investment income could increase 11% year over year to $1.5 billion
due to increased invested assets.
Within the Insurance segment, GEICO’s pre-tax underwriting income could increase
43% year-over-year to $285 million, reflecting 5% premium growth and improvement
in underwriting margins due to benign loss cost trends. GenRe could report
underwriting income of $220 million versus $186 million a year ago due to improved
underwriting margins. Pre-tax underwriting income at Berkshire Hathaway Re could
improve to a $235 million versus $167 million a year ago, reflecting the lumpy nature of
the business.
The Utilities and Energy (MidAmerican) segment (excluding BNSF) revenues could
increase 2% year-over-year to $2.9 billion. Pre-tax income could decline 13% year-over-
year to $374 million
Burlington Northern’s revenues could increase 22% year over year to $4.3 billion, and
pre-tax earnings could increase 46% year over year to $1.3 billion. Notably, the
25 October 2010 2
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Burlington Northern acquisition closed on February 12, 2010, and therefore did not
contribute to Berkshire’s operating earnings result a year ago.
The Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing segment revenues could increase 9% year
over year to $17.4 billion in 3Q10. Pre-tax earnings are expected to nearly double year
over year to $1.2 billion, reflecting strong improvement in Other Service (includes
NetJets) and Other Manufacturing.
The Finance and Financial Products segment (mostly Clayton Homes) revenues could
be $1.2 billion, +8% vs. the year ago quarter. Pretax earnings could increase 6% year
over year to $150 million.
Valuation
Our price target of $88 per Class B share ($132,000 per Class A share) for Berkshire
Hathaway based on a multiple of 1.29x (below the average historical multiple of 1.67x since
2000) our YE11 book value estimate of $68 per Class B share ($102,300 per A share). We
also estimate Berkshire’s fair value using sum-of-the-parts and intrinsic value methods,
which generate an outlook of approximately $90 per Class B share and $76 per Class B
share, respectively.
25 October 2010 3
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Method
$88 per Class B share $90 per Class B share $82 per Class B share
Approximate estimated fair value $132,000 per Class A share $135,000 per Class A share $122,400 per Class A share
per share
Strengths of this method Easy to calculate. Applies separate valuation for each Warren Buffett uses a modified
business. version.
Historical basis for valuation.
Separately values investments and
operating units.
Drawbacks of this method Book value is believed to be lower Valuation based on comprehensive Many estimated inputs, including
than intrinsic value. income (incl. est. investment gains). WACC and terminal value of future
BNSF is newly acquired, so Determining the right valuation for earnings.
historical valuation is not highly each segment can be a challenge.
relevant.
Figure 3: Trailing Price-to-Stated Book Since 2000 Figure 4: Trailing Price-to-Tangible Book Since 2000
2.1 3.3 Trailing Price-to-Tangible Book Multiple
Trailing Price-to-Stated Book Multiple
2.0 3.1
1.9 2.9
1.8 2.7
1.7 2.5
1.6 2.3
1.5 2.1
1.4
1.9
1.3
1.7
1.2
1.5
1.1
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Source: FactSet, Barclays Capital research. Source: FactSet, Barclays Capital research.
Figure 5: Trailing Price-to-Stated Book Since 2008 Figure 6: Trailing Price-to-Tangible Book Since 2008
2.1 Trailing Price-to-Stated Book Multiple 2.7 Trailing Price-to-Tangible Book Multiple
2.0
2.5
1.9
1.8
2.3
1.7
1.6 2.1
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.3
1.7
1.2
1.1 1.5
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Source: FactSet, Barclays Capital research. Source: FactSet, Barclays Capital research.
25 October 2010 4
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Insurance valuation 77
25 October 2010 5
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
(In $millions, except per share) Weighted avg. cost of capital (WACC)
Mkt value of equity 205,948 78%
Debt 57,970 22%
Valuation Summary Total 263,918 100%
(In $mn except per share)
Value of investments & cash $135,502 Beta 0.96
PV of non-insurance A/T income 124,144 10 Yr US Treasury yield 2.6%
Company value 259,646 Risk premium 7.0%
Less: debt (57,970) Market return 9.6%
Value of shareholders' equity 201,676 Cost of equity 9.3%
Class A and equivalent shares out 1.65
Value of equity per Class A equiv. share $122,423 Cost of debt, pre-tax 4.8%
Value of equity per Class B equiv. share $82 1-Tax rate 0.66
Cost of debt, after-tax 3.2%
WACC 7.9%
Terminal
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Value
Non-Insurance income
Burlington Northern Santa Fe $3,538 $4,490 4,715 4,832 4,953 5,077 5,204 5,334 5,467 5,604 5,744 5,888
Utilities & Energy (MidAmerican) $1,511 1,498 1,573 1,612 1,653 1,694 1,736 1,780 1,824 1,870 1,916 1,964
Manufacturing, Service & Retail $4,441 $5,575 5,854 6,000 6,150 6,304 6,461 6,623 6,789 6,958 7,132 7,311
Finance & Financial Products $566 $600 630 646 662 678 695 713 731 749 768 787
Less: Minority interest ($541) ($480) (504) (517) (530) (543) (556) (570) (584) (599) (614) (629)
Total Segment pre-tax income 9,515 11,683 12,267 12,574 12,888 13,210 13,541 13,879 14,226 14,582 14,946 15,320
Effective tax rate 30% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
Total Segment after-tax income 6,660 7,711 8,096 8,299 8,506 8,719 8,937 9,160 9,389 9,624 9,865 10,111
Discount period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
PV after-tax income + terminal value 6,171 6,619 6,439 6,115 5,807 5,514 5,237 4,973 4,723 4,485 4,259 63,803
25 October 2010 6
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
25 October 2010 7
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Effective tax rate 28.1% 32.3% 19.6% NM 39.9% 31.7% 33.1% 32.4% 26.2% 28.9% 32.0% 32.0%
Adjusted total debt/capital 18.2% 17.7% 17.6% 19.3% 20.7% 18.9% 17.1% 16.5% 23.8% 24.5% 23.8% 23.3%
Total insurance float $60,000 $61,000 $62,000 $61,911 $63,500 $63,000
Avg Insurance investments (excl cash, fixed income at cost) $102,494 $102,021 $103,386 $99,774 $92,319 $97,086 $107,666 $112,958 $111,655 $105,568 $102,940 $105,014
Average Insurance pre-tax yield 4.3% 4.7% 4.2% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% 5.0% 3.5% 4.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.7%
Insurance invested assets (at fair value) per A share $87,441 $83,978 $86,188 $74,337 $73,997 $83,530 $92,437 $98,672 $86,466 $82,253 $86,287 $88,116
Non Insurance pre-tax earnings $1,497 $1,720 $1,651 $2,303 $838 $865 $1,080 $1,198 $1,656 $2,533 $2,699 $2,627
Non-Insurance earnings per A share $967 $1,110 $1,066 $1,487 $540 $557 $696 $772 $1,035 $1,538 $1,638 $1,595
Free cash flow $2,643 $748 $2,337 $1,588 NA NA NA NA $2,428 $2,142 $1,878 $1,878
25 October 2010 8
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S)
I, Jay Gelb, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the
subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
U.S. Insurance/Non-Life
ACE Limited (ACE) Allied World Assurance Co. (AWH) Allstate Corp. (ALL)
Aon Corporation (AON) Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B)
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) Chubb Corp. (CB) Everest Re Group (RE)
Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings Ltd. (FSR) Marsh & McLennan Cos. (MMC) Montpelier Re Holdings (MRH)
OneBeacon Insurance Group (OB) PartnerRe Ltd. (PRE) Progressive Corp. (PGR)
RenaissanceRe Holdings (RNR) The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)
Willis Group Holdings Ltd. (WSH) XL Group plc (XL)
25 October 2010 9
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Capital Inc. Equity Research has 1607 companies under coverage.
42% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 53% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
44% have been assigned a 2-Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
11% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 37% of
companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
Barclays Capital offices involved in the production of equity research:
London
Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays Capital, London)
New York
Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)
Tokyo
Barclays Capital Japan Limited (BCJL, Tokyo)
São Paulo
Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, São Paulo)
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Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)
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Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCC, Toronto)
Johannesburg
Absa Capital, a division of Absa Bank Limited (Absa Capital, Johannesburg)
25 October 2010 10
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
90
82
75
68
60
52
45
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of Berkshire Hathaway
Inc. in the previous 12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or one of its
affiliates.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in the past 12
months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. within the next 3 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc..
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. within the past
12 months.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank
PLC and/or an affiliate.
Barclays Bank PLC is associated with specialist firm Barclays Capital Market Makers, which makes a market in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. stock. At
any given time, the associated specialist may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and the associated specialist may be on the
opposite side of orders executed on the Floor of the Exchange in the stock.
Valuation Methodology: We determine our price target for Berkshire Hathaway of $88 primarily by applying a price-to-book multiple of 1.3x
(versus a historical average since 2000 of 1.59x) to our YE 2011 book value estimate of around $70. As a point of reference, our price target
valuation implies a price-to-tangible book multiple of 1.86x, versus a historical average since 2000 of 2.30x.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: There are several risks that could impede the achievement of our price target for
Berkshire Hathaway including managment succession, large and concentrated stock investments, derivative losses, earnings volatility,
catastrophe losses, M&A risk and regulatory risk.
25 October 2010 11
Barclays Capital | Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
150K
12-Apr-2010 120465.00 2-Equal Weight 132000.00
140K
130K
120K
110K
100K
90K
80K
70K
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of Berkshire Hathaway
Inc. in the previous 12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or one of its
affiliates.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in the past 12
months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. within the next 3 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc..
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. within the past
12 months.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank
PLC and/or an affiliate.
Barclays Bank PLC is associated with specialist firm Barclays Capital Market Makers, which makes a market in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. stock. At
any given time, the associated specialist may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and the associated specialist may be on the
opposite side of orders executed on the Floor of the Exchange in the stock.
Valuation Methodology: We determine our price target for Berkshire Hathaway of $132,000 primarily by applying a price-to-book multiple of
1.3x (versus a historical average since 2000 of 1.59x) to our YE 2011 book value estimate of around $105,000. As a point of reference, our price
target valuation implies a price-to-tangible book multiple of 1.80x, versus a historical average since 2000 of 2.30x.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: There are several risks that could impede the achievement of our price target for
Berkshire Hathaway including managment succession, large and concentrated stock investments, derivative losses, earnings volatility,
catastrophe losses, M&A risk and regulatory risk.
25 October 2010 12
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