Review of Related

Literature
“Flood Analysis in Mayorga, Leyte”
(CE 483 Undergraduate Research)

TOLIBAS, TEJAY L.
Student
BSCE 4C
1 Flood Risk

The concept of flooding has a multi-disciplinary definition based on the interest of the defining
discipline. However, flood is generally taken to include ‘any case where land not normally covered
by water becomes covered by water’ (FWMA, 2010: Pt 1). In recent decades there have been
raging scientific and media debates on likely changes in flood regimes generated by land-use
changes and climate change (Ranzi et al, 2002). The crux of most of these debates is centred on
the simulated risk from such flood events. These risks are related to human health, infrastructure,
socio-economic well-being of affected individuals and damage also to archaeological relics.
Methods of evaluating and assessing flood risk have been developed in the field of insurance,
technological and environmental fields (Molak, 1997; Jones, 2001). Although river flooding is often
related to natural disasters, the impacts of human activities such as urbanization have been
observed by many scholars (Sala and Inbar, 1992; Kang et al, 1998; Ranzi et al, 2002). Flood risk is
expressed in terms of the probability of occurrence of adverse effects of flood related hazards and
vulnerability with potential consequences (Mileti, 1999; Merz, et al, 2007; FWMA, 2010). Although
a number of approaches have been tested for flood events prediction, hydraulic models have been
specifically designed to predict flood inundation (Horritt and Bates, 2002). Consequently, in the
development of an effective and efficient flood risk management strategy hydraulic, hydrologic
and socio-economic factors must be taken into consideration (Merz et al, 2007).

2 Urbanisation and Flooding

Urbanization and flooding are intricately linked in both developed and developing countries.
Increasing population growth and continued urban expansion has led to a reduction in surface
permeability which invariably increases surface runoff in the absence of alleviating urban drainage
design (Kang et al, 1998; Parker, 1999; Ranzi et al, 2002). Although the UK has only small rivers by
world standards, with the tendency for smaller-scale floods to occur (Wheater, 2006),
considerable economic and infrastructural losses arise from urban flooding (Mark et al, 2004). This
loss is significantly higher in smaller river bank communities. For instance, Wheater (2006) notes
that the 24hr rainfall in Carlisle on the 8th and 9th of January 2005 resulted in the loss of two lives,
an estimated damage of £450 million and flooding of over 2000 properties when the flood
defences were over-topped. The engineering and design of flood defences are based on
hydrological and hydraulic models of river catchments. Hydrological models simulate surface
runoff from rainfall while the hydraulic model describes structural controls of the river system
(Kite, 2001; Mark et al, 2004; Kidson et al, 2006; Heatlie et al, 2007).

“We conclude that urbanization can represent a very significant increase in flood risk at small
catchment scale, but that the effects are commonly mitigated, to a greater or lesser extent, by
design measures. The impacts of effects at larger scales are complex and depend on the relative
magnitude and timing of sub-catchment responses and the performance of mitigation strategies.
Relative effects of urbanization on flooding are expected to decrease with increasing storm return
period, but the performance of mitigation strategies for events rarer than the design criteria
adopted is largely unexplored”.

3 Global warming and Flooding

Though it is still difficult to attribute global warming recorded this century to the enhanced
greenhouse effect and the resultant increase in observed rainfall (Reynard et al, 2001; Robson et
al, 1998), the recurrent incidence of floods and their magnitude in the UK in recent times have
raised major concerns that the effect of climate change is already being felt across the country
(Robson, 2002). Milly et al, (2002) produced the theory Global Climate Models have been used to
determine the likelihood of increased flood risk from global warming. Reynard et al (2001) used
the CLASSIC (Climate and LAnd use Scenario Simulation In Catchments model) continuous flow
simulation model to assess the potential impact of climate and changes in land use on the flood
regimes of the Severn and Thames rivers. They found that for the 2050s, the climate change
scenarios results in an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of flooding events in both
rivers. Similarly, Milly et al (2002) observed that the frequency of great floods increased
significantly during the twentieth century. Accordingly, the statistically significant positive trend in
the risk of floods was consistent with the results from the climate model (Milly et al, 2002). Roy et
al (2001) investigated the impact of climate change on summer and autumn flooding on the
Chateauguay river basin. Their study reveals serious potential increases in the volume of runoff,
maximum discharge and water level with future climate change scenarios for a three 20-year
periods spanning 1975 – 1995, 2020 – 2040, 2080 – 2100.

4 Modelling of Flood events

The simulation of extraordinary flow events characterized by high hydraulic risk has posed serious
problems for policy makers, engineers and environmentalists around the world. The use of 1-D
modelling for predicting flood risk generated by events of different return period or multiple land
use and climate change scenarios is widespread (Lin et al., 2005; Mark et al., 2004; Horritt and
Bates, 2002; Mark et al., 2004; Lin et al., 2005; Hall et al, 2005). In their study, Bates and De Roo
(2000) demonstrated the use of a 1-D model type storage cell called LISFLOOD-FP to produce
designated channel cells for channel routing and uniform flow formulae for floodplain routing,
through the process of discrete raster-based analysis derived from a DEM at 100, 50 and 25m
resolutions respectively and applied to a major flood on a 35km reach of River Meuse. Syme (2001)
notes that in addition to rapid wetting and drying, the strength of TUFLOW is its powerful 1D
linking options, modelling of hydraulic structures, treatment of levees and embankments, effective
data handling and quality control outputs.

Horritt and Bates (2002) conclude that HEC-RAS models calibrated against discharge gave good
flood predictions of inundated area on a 60 km reach of the river Severn, UK.
Reed and Robson, (1999, cited in Dawson et al., 2006) stressed that many flood estimation
problems were likely to arise at ungauged sites due to the unavailability of flood peak data
recorded in the UK Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH). The FEH is produced by the Centre for
Ecology and Hydrology with information about River catchments in the UK such as, rainfall
frequency estimation, statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation, rainfall-runoff and
catchment descriptors. Dawson et al., (2006) used the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) technique
to estimate flood statistics for un-gauged catchments (for most of the River catchments in the UK).
The index flood analysis from the ANN results produced a comparable accuracy to that obtained
from the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), but the flood estimation for each catchment was
carried out for only a 10, 20 and 30 year flood event period giving room for short term flood
defence preparation thereby incurring future expense on what can be predicted for up to 1000
years.

A study by Yang et al (2002) on prediction of flood inundation and risk, using GIS and
Hydrodynamic model showed the ability to use a DEM manipulated in GIS and translated into
MIKE21 (a modelling environment). In the study, different scenarios were evaluated and results
translated to the GIS environment for visualization and analysis on flood events for an estimated
100-year flood return period. However, Yang et al, stressed that there were no real means to
calibrate the simulations from the modelling output, as flow and stage data were rarely recorded
for flood events and also, compare between outputs from MIKE21 and MIKE1, the former, being
an upgrade of the latter.

5 One-Dimension ISIS flood Modelling

The ISIS model has been used extensively in modelling inundated flow regimes of rivers across the
UK (Heatlie, et al. 2007). The Manchester Ship Canal, a 58 km long river located in North West
England and constructed in 1894 to include the navigable part of River Irwell (including River Irwell
at Radcliffe, Bury) was one of the last major watercourses in the United Kingdom to be analysed
with hydraulic modelling techniques (Heatlie, et al. 2007). In preparation of an indicative flood
mapping (IFM), the EA used an unsteady ISIS 1-D hydraulic model for the mapping of a 47km length
of the Upstream Bristol Forme catchment to define areas at flood risk in 2002 (Syme et al, 2004).

According to past studies (Costa-Cabral and Burges, 1994; Bodis, 2007; Rees, 2000) it is evident
that the use of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in flood model creation have played a big role in the
successful presentation of hydrological and topographical drainage basin data analysis (Peckham,
1998) because it depicts an array of elevations across the basin at regularly spaced intervals
(Cunha, 2009). This eliminates the assumption that the catchment or area is a flat surface without
contours.

In research carried out by Sansena & Bhaktikul (2006) on the integration of hydraulic modelling
and GIS towards the study of river the Mae Klong (Bangkok, Thailand). The runoff frequency
analysis was used in the creation of a flood risk map. The study also showed that the results from
the simulation carried out, was properly presented in GIS and DTM format, by making use of the
contour and river spot height data. Sansena & Bhaktikul (2006) conclude their study by suggesting
that further studies be done on larger basins by dividing them into sub-basins and the network
link to integrate them should be introduced to have an overview of the basin. The runoff flow in
flood plains, river channels and man-made structures are important factors in the study of runoff
flow behaviour prediction of flood areas, they added, and thus further studies are therefore
recommended to include rainfall runoff models in upstream and unsteady areas.