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Indian Highways
Volume : 47 Number : 2 ● FEBRUARY, 2019 ● ISSN 0376-7256
Indian Roads Congress
Founded : On 10th December, 1934
Contents
 From the Editor's Desk 4-5
 Highlights of the International Seminar on “Construction and Maintenance of Rigid Paement–Current 6-14
Practices and Way Forward”
 IRC Technical Committees Meeting Schedule for February, 2019 22
 Advertisements 2, 14, 15, & 54
Technical Papers
 Forensic Engineering of Cable Bridges- an Innovative Approach -A Way Forward 16

By Satander Kumar
 Smart Transportation System Citing Best Practices and its Relevance in Indian Cities 23
By Prof. P.K.Sarkar & Dr. Ravi Sekhar Chalumuri
 Numerical Slope Stability Analysis of Selected Natural and Manmade Slopes 32

By Sukumar Saha
 Quantitative Risk Assessment– Road Project Preparation Perspective 39

By Subir Kumar Podder
 New/Revised Publications of IRC–NEW ARRIVALS 49
 MoRT&H Circular 50
 Tender Notices 51-53
Publisher & Editor: S.K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC

E-mail: secygen.irc@gov.in
Headquarter: IRC Bhawan, Kama Koti Marg, Sector-6, R.K. Puram, New Delhi-110 022.
Phone No.: +91-11-26171548 (Admn.), 23387140 & 23384543 (Membership), 23387759 (Sale),
26185273 (Tech. Papers, Indian Highways and Tech. Committees)
No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means without prior written permission from the Secretary General, IRC.
The responsibility of the contents and the opinions expressed in Indian Highways is exclusively of the author(s) concerned. IRC and the Editor
disclaim responsibility and liability for any statements or opinion, originality of contents and of any copyright violations by the authors. The
opinion expressed in the papers and contents published in the Indian Highways do not necessarily represent the views of the Editor or IRC.
Printed at: M/s Aravali Printers & Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi-110020 `20
INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 3

FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK
INTEGRAL BRIDGE
An Integral Bridge (IB) is a structure where there are no bearings over the abutments and no expansion
joints in the superstructure. Integral Bridges worldwide have shown saving in initial cost and life
cycle cost through reduced maintenance. As Integral Bridges have demonstrated better performance
under earthquake loads, their use needs to be encouraged. In addition, Integral Bridges eliminate
expansion joints and provide better riding quality thereby adding comfort to the road users. Because
of advantage of reduced initial cost and maintenance cost and better service performance/riding
quality, the engineers worldwide in countries like USA, UK, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, China
etc. are preferring to use Integral Bridges. In UK, bridges up to a length of 60 m are mandatory to
be of integral type. However, because of complexity in design of long Integral Bridges, their use is
generally limited in length to about 100 m.
Integral bridges are characterized by monolithic connection between the superstructure and the
substructure (piers and abutments), unlike the traditional bridge construction, where the superstructure
is supported on bearings and transfers all the forces to substructure and foundation through bearings.
Provision of expansion joints and bearings in traditional bridges allows movement and rotation of
the bridge deck, without transferring any force to abutment/pier and foundation due to thermal/
creep/shrinkage induced movements. In case of IB’s, the deck carries the movement of deck to the
abutment as well as to the backfill soil behind the abutment. The approach slab between the bridge
end and the pavements accommodate the necessary movements, which leads to a strong soil-structure
interaction.
Apart from the fully integral solutions without expansion joints or bearings, it is also possible to have
structural solution, where only the expansion joints at abutments are omitted, but the bearings are
provided. The back-wall portion of the substructure is directly connected with the superstructure in
such case and the superstructure, back-wall and approach slab moves together ‘towards’ and ‘away’
from the backfill during the thermal expansion and contraction. Such solutions, known as ‘Semi-
Integral Bridges’ (SIB’s), are often appropriate particularly for the rehabilitation of bridges.
Advantages of using Integral Bridges are added redundancy, improved seismic performance, improved
structural reliability, improved riding-quality and noise reduction, improved durability due to absence
of expansion joints, reduced maintenance cost, reduced traffic disruption required for change of joints,
useful concept for strengthening of existing bridges, etc.
Disadvantages of adopting Integral Bridge concept are limited span range due to restraints to movements
caused by thermal, creep and shrinkage, chances of cracking in case of differential settlement between
foundations resting on varying strata or varying scour conditions in case of river bridges, complex
structural analysis as it involves soil-structure interaction.
4 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK
The IB’s, are complicated structural systems for design. Apart from considering the primary loads
(i,e. dead, live, wind etc.), secondary loads (such as creep, shrinkage, settlement, temperature effects
etc.) need also to be considered under serviceability limit state as well as ultimate limit state. Methods
of analysis, methods of modelling of structure for analysis, as given in existing code IRC:112 (For
reinforced/prestressed concrete structures), IRC:22 (For composite structures) and IRC:24 (For steel
structures) will be applicable for integral bridges as well. Linear Elastic analysis may be used for both
the serviceability and ultimate limit state.
IRC has recently published a new document IRC:SP:115-2018 entitled “Guidelines for Design of
Integral Bridges”. These guidelines are applicable to fully Integral Bridges, with structural deck made
of steel, concrete or composite construction, including precast and prestressed concrete.
These bridges are easier to construct. Time dependent stresses such as creep, shrinkage, settlement
and temperature effects are considered in design. More efforts are required in design of such bridges
and the benefits are worth the inputs in design. Since literature for their design are available, therefore,
bridge engineers may consider adopting integral bridges.
(Sanjay Kumar Nirmal)

Secretary General
“Safety first... because accidents last.”
“Safety: expect the unexpected”
“Chance takers are accident makers.”
“Hug your kids at home, but belt them in the car!”
“The essence of road safety is to live healthy”
“Safety is Key, it is Up To You And Me!”

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON

“CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE OF RIGID PAvEMENT–CURRENT
PRACTICES AND WAY FORWARD”
18th& 19th january, 2019, NEW DELHI
The Indian Roads Congress (IRC) in association with Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH), World Road
Congress (PIARC) and Japan Road Association (JRA) organized two days International Seminar on “Construction and
Maintenance of Rigid Pavements–Current Practices and Way Forward” on the 18th & 19th January, 2019 at India
Habitat Centre, New Delhi. The International Seminar was inaugurated on 18th January, 2019 by lighting the traditional
lamp by Shri Toli Basar, President of IRC; Shri B.N. Singh, DG(RD) & SS, MoRTH; Shri Shigeru Kikukawa, Vice-
President, PIARC & Board of Member, JRA; Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH & Chairman Technical Committee of
Seminar; Shri R.K. Pandey, Member, NHAI & Vice President, IRC; Shri C.P. Joshi, Secretary, PWD, Maharashtra &
Vice President, IRC; Shri S.K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC; Dr. Michael Darter; Sr. Principal Engineer Applied
Research Associate, USA and Dr. Dan G Zollinger, Zachry Dept of Civil Engg, TAMU, USA. The International Seminar
was attended by more than 350 Highway Sector Engineers/Professionals/Academicians etc. from various facets from all
over the country as well as from abroad and also from multilateral organization like PIARC & JRA etc.
Glimpses of Inaugural Function of the International Seminar

The President, IRC in his Speech welcomed all the dignitires and delegates. Further
he said that the Indian Roads Congress, is providing an International Forum for
sharing of knowledge and pooling of experience on the entire range of subjects
dealing with the construction and maintenance of roads; bridges; tunnels and
road transportation including technology, equipment, research, planning, finance,
organization and all connected policy issues. Over the period of time, the IRC
has grown into an Apex professional body of Highway Engineers devoted to the
cause of better roads. It is responsible for evolving standards, specifications, codes,
manuals etc. on design, construction and maintenance of roads, bridges, tunnels,
safety engineering etc. He said technical Sessions in this Seminar will help in
sharing experiences, updating knowledge, identifying appropriate technology and
revision of the existing specifications, codes of practices and guidelines in the field
Welcome Address by Shri Toli of rigid pavements.
Basar, President, IRC
The DG (RD) & SS, MoRT & H extended warm welcome to all the dignitiries on the
dais and all particpants of the International Seminar. In his speech he said that the
Hon’ble Union Minister of Road Transport & Highways is the great proponent of the
Rigid Pavement and he has a very good success story of Bombay-Pune Expressway
and that’s why he has been assertive on use of Rigid Pavement since he took the
charge of the Ministry. The main purpose of holding this Seminar is to go behind
the problem/issues in construction and mantinance of Rigid pavement, discuss &
deliberate it in details and also take the opinion of the International Experts. He said
that the IRC has come up with the codes for concrete roads and IRC - 58 has been
revised five times based on whatever experience we got in that field. Ministry also
has its construction Specifications on Rigid Pavement. However, we still have some
of the larger challenges and I expect that all the aspects should be deliberated and
Address by Shri B.N. Singh we come up with the solution. While concluding his speech DG (RD) & SS again
DG(RD) & SS, MoRT&H welcomed all the prticiapants.
The Vice-President, PIARC Mr. Shigeru Kikukawa delivered his address with an
introductory presentation and conveyed good whishes for the success of this two
day’s International Seminar. Further he made detailed presentation highlighting
activities of PIARC and JRA.
Souveinr containg technical papers of national & international key note presenters
and also theme wise abstract of technical papers of selected presenters/authors and
messages from Hon’ble Minsters, laeders conveying good whishes for the success of
this two day’s International Seminar were relesed durining Inagural Function.
Adress by Shri Shigeru Kikukawa

Vice-President, PIARC

Releasing of the Sovinour of the Seminar

The Secretary General, IRC Shri S.K. Nirmal welcomed all the dignitaries on the
dais and off the dais and read a number of messages conveying good whishes for the
success of this two day’s International Seminar received from Hon’ble President of
India; Hon’ble Vice President of India; Hon’ble Union Minister of Road Transport
& Highways, Govt. of India; Hon’ble Ministers of State for Road Transport &
Highways, Govt. of India; Hon’ble Minister of Rural Development, Govt. of India.
Hon’ble Minister of State for Home Affairs, Govt. of India.The messages of good
wishes have also been received from Shri Sanjeev Ranjan, IAS, Chairman, National
Highways Authority of India and Shri Y.S. Malik, IAS, Secretary, Road Transport
and Highways.
At the end Secretary General, IRC delivered Vote of Thank and sincerely expressed
his heartiest gratitude to the dignitaries, well-wishers and all who have come from
different parts of the country and abroad for their support in making this Seminar a
grand success.
During the two days International Seminar a total 28 number of presentations
Shri S.K. Nirmal, Secretary
were made under 6 Technical Sessions by the experts from India and abroad
General, IRC
Reading out messages and
representing almost all segments covering the “Construction and Maintenance
proposing Vote of thanks of Rigid Pavements–Current Practices and Way Forward”. Themewise brief
is as under;
View of the dais during Technical Session-1

First technical session dedicated for theme ‘Palnning and Design of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri A.V. Sinha,
DG (RD) & SS, MoRT&H (Retd.) and Co-Chaired by Dr Dharamveer Singh, Professor, Civil Engg. Deptt. IIT Bombay.
Under this theme following presentations were made:
i. K
ey Note presentation on “Design of Reliable and Optimum Concrete Pavements” by Dr. Michael Darter; Sr.
Principal Engineer Applied Research Associate, USA
ii. “ Methodology Adopted for Construction of Short Paneled Concrete Pavements (SPCP) on High Volume Roads plus
Research Findings of IIT Kharagpur” by Shri K Shridhar Reddy; Prof. M. A Reddy of IIT, Kharagpur
iii. “ Longitudinal Structural Cracking of Indian Concrete Highways: Cause, Remedy and Prevention”by Shri I. K.
Pandey, ADG, MoRTH New DelhI& Shri Binod Kumar; Principal Scientist, CRRI,
iv. “ Necessity of Establishing the Built-in Temperature Differential in Concrete Pavements” by Shri V.Jogarao Bulusu;
Professor S.Reddy Kusam; Professor M.A Reddy; Late B.B.Pandey; Former Professor & Advisor, IIT, Kharagpur
v. “ Current Design, Construction, Quality Control and Maintenance Specifications of Rigid Pavements for National
Highways, Air Field Pavements, Rural Roads, City Roads” by Shri Satander Kumar; Freelance Consultant and Ex.
Scientist CRRI.
A View of the Dais during Session-2

Second technical session dedicated for theme ‘Construction, Materials and Technology for Rigid Pavements’ was
Chaired by Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRT&H and Co-Chaired by Shri S.K.Nirmal, SG, IRC. Under this theme following
presentations were made:
i. Key Note presentation by Shri R.K.Jain, Former Chief Engineer, PWD Haryana
ii. “ A Sustainable Approach to Construction of Low-Traffic Volume Concrete Roads Using C&D Aggregates and
Supplementary Cementitious Materials”by Shri Vaibhav Chawla; Shri Amit Trivedi, NCCBM & Shri V.V. Arora
HOC-CDR NCCBM, Ballabhgarh.
iii. “ Influence of Microsilica on Pavement Quality Concrete Mixes and Rigid Pavement Design” by Shri Dinesh Ganvir,
Sr. Scientist,CRRI; Shri Binod Kumar,Principal Scientist, CRRI& Shri Brajesh Malviya; GM, M/s Elkem South
Asia Pvt. Ltd, Nagpur
iv. “ Pune City experience with Thin White Topping Technology for Urban Roads” by Shri Vikas V. Thakar, MD, M/s
Pavetech Consultants, Pune.
v. “ Utilization of Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag in Pavement Quality Concrete” by Ms. L. Sengupta;VP , M/s
JSW Cement Ltd, Mumbai

A view of the Dais during Session 3

Third session of Panel Discussion on theme ‘Experiences of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri B.N. Singh, DG(RD)
& SS, MoRT&H and Co-Chaired by Mr. Shigeru Kikukawa. Vice President, PIARC & Member JRA. During panel
discussing following eminent panelist shared their experiences, recommendations on Rigid Pavement.
i. Shri A.V. Sinha, Former DG(RD)& SS, MoRT&H
ii. Dr. Dan G Zollinger,ZachryDeptof CivilEngg, TAMU,USA
iii. Dr. Michael Darter, Sr Principal Engineer Applied Research Associate, USA
iv. Shri R.K.Pandey, Member NHAI
v. Shri R.K. Jain, chief Engineer (Retd.), Haryana PWD
vi. Col. A.K. Basin, President, M/s Oriental Structures Engineers Pvt. Ltd.
vii. Shri A.K. Swami Associate Professor.Department of Civil Engineering. IIT Delhi
On Second day fourth technical session dedicated for ‘Case Studies of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by Shri C.P. Joshi,
Vice President, IRC, Secretary (Roads), PWD, Maharashtra and Co-Chaired by Shri D.O. Tawade, Member, NHAI.

i. K
ey Note Presentation on “Evaluation of Durability of Concrete Pavement laid over 40 Years Ago and its Design
Method” by Shri Manato TAKEMURA ,Dy Manager M/s East Expressway Company Ltd (NEXCO-East) Japan
ii. “ Sustainability of Rigid Pavements & A Case Study of HospetBellari Road Project” by Shri V N Heggade, Technical
Director, GECPL, Mumbai

iii. “ Maintenance of Concrete Pavement by Microsurfacing Technology” by Dr P K Jain Chief, Scientist and Advisor
(Retd.), FPD, CSIR-CRRI ,ShriAnirudh Lal; & Shri Rohit
iv. “Construction Experience of Small Paneled Concrete Overlay on Existing Bituminous Pavement” by Shri
V.JogaraoBulusu; Professor S.ReddyKusam; Late Shri B.B.Pandey; Former Professor, IIT Kharagpur
v. “High Volume Flyash in PQC Concrete using Geopolymer Technology on Cost Effective Way- Case Study” by Dr.
Swapnil P Wanjari, Asst. Prof. ; Ms Unnati Aggarwal, Shri JatinChandna; VNIT Nagpur

Fifth technical session dedicated for theme ‘Repair, Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Rigid Pavements’ was Chaired by
Dr. Dan Zollinger, Zachry Deptt of Civil Engg, TAMU, USA and Co-Chaired by Shri V.V. Arora HOD-CDR NCCBM,
Ballabhgarh. Under this theme following presentations were made:
i. K eynote Presentation on “Precast Concrete Pavement -A Fast and Durable Strategy" by Dr Mehdi Pravini, Pavement
Specialist, Dept of Transportation California, USA
ii. “Innovative & Effective Repair Methodology of Longitudinal Joint Widening in Rigid Pavement”by Shri Raman
Kumar, Director (Tech.); Shri Sharad Kumar Singh, GM ,M/s Oriental Structural Engg. Pvt.Ltd.ND; Shri J.K. Das;
Associate Director; Shri BidurkantJha, GM ,M/s LEA Associates South Asia Pvt.Ltd., New Delhi
iii. “Scaling Problem on Surface of Newly Constructed Concrete Pavement and its Repair” by Dr Rakesh Kumar, Head
& Sr. Principal Scientist, RPD ,CSIR-CRRI-Mathura Road, New Dehli
iv. “Whitetopping: An Environment-Friendly Pavement Rehabilitation Strategy for Urban Roads” by Ms. Swati Roy
Maitra; ProfessorK.Sudhakar Reddy ,IIT Kharagpur: Shri Ramachandra, Vice Head (Technical) M/s Ultratech
Cement Ltd.,Mumbai
v. “Repair, Maintenance And Rehabilitation Of Concrete Roads” by Er. Vivek Naik, National President, Indian
Concrete Institute

Sixth technical session dedicated for theme ‘Health Monitoring of Rigid Pavements ’ was Chaired by Dr. Michael Darter,
Sr. Principal Engineer, Applied Research Associate, USA and Co-Chaired Shri R.K. Pandey, Member (Project), NHAI.
i. K
ey Note Presentation on “Role of Curing and Joint Sealing in Pcc Pavement Design and Performance” by Dr Dan
G Zollinger,Zachry Dept of Civil Engg, TAMU,USA
ii. " Determination of Curling Stresses in an Instrumented Concrete Pavement Slab” by Shri Binod Kumar, Principal
Scientist, CRRI, New Delhi.
iii. T
yre Bursting: The Role of Concrete Pavement Surface Condition” by Shri Binod Kumar; Principal Scientist, CRRI,
New Delhi& Shri S. K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC, New Delhi
iv. “Condition
Evaluation ,Inspection Criteria for Highways with Rigid Pavement” by Dr. Sanjay Wakchaure;
SE ,MoRT&H, New Delhi;Shri Ajit Singh; (JE) CPWD, JNU Sub- Division , New Delhi; Professor K.N. Jha, IIT
Delhi.
v. “ Alignment of Dowel Bars in Concrete Roads Requirements and Verification” by Shri Dirk Anke MIT Mess- und ,
Dresden/Germany ( presenated by Shri R K Jain)
vi. “ Pavement Analysis- The ACN-PCN Method” by Mr. Supriyo Pradhan; Mr. AK Nanda; National Manager of
Structural Monitoring Instrumentation, Shekhar Verma; Sr. General Manager M/s Aimil Ltd New Delhi
A view of the Valedictory Session

In the evening Valeictory function and International Seminar was held and Shri Sanjeev Ranjan, IAS, Chairman was
the Chief Guest for this function. Shri S K Niraml, Secretray General, IRC welcomed Chief guest by presenting flower
and IRC momento and also express deep gratitude to him.

Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH Shri Sanjeev Ranjan, IAS, Chairman, NHAI
Read Out Recommdations Delivering Valedictory Address
Shri I.K. Pandey, ADG, MoRTH & Chairman Technical In his valedictory address, Shri Sanjiv Ranjan, Chairman,
Committee of Seminar welcomed all the dignitaries on NHAI complimented IRC for convening an International
the dais and off the dais read out recommdations of two Seminar on most relevant Theme - Rigid Pavement. He
days deliberations for consideartion and adoption of shared his experience of one of his visit with Shri R.K.
all satkeholders. In the end of his address he greet the Pandey to U.P. where he found that part of rigid pavement is
organisers and participants for the grand success of the durable and sustainable than Flexible Pavement. He further
international seminar. said he heard certain discussion amongst delegates before the
valedictory Session and took the note of in-depth design and
construction complications in Rigid pavement. He further
elaborated that recommendations read out by Shri I.K.
Pandey may be of great use for delegates in taking policy
decision and construction activities in future. He thanked the
organizers for inviting him on valedictory session.
A view of the Audiances During International Seminar

Glimpses of Cultural Programme A view of Audiences During Cultural Programme
A Post Session Technical Tour to site visit to Eastern Peripheral Expressway (EPE) & Yamuna Expressway was
also organized for delegates.

ADVERTISEMENT

TECHNICAL PAPER
FORENSIC ENGINEERING OF CABLE BRIDGES- AN INNOVATIVE

APPROACH -A way forward
Satander Kumar*
abstruct
Forensic engineering in case of cable bridges is the investigation of materials required for their, components made from
them, structures or components that fail or do not operate or function as intended, causing personal injury or damage to
the property or alternatively it means offering evaluation, reporting, and expert witness testimony considering prevailing or
accidental Geotechnical and Environmental conditions.
Causes of failure may be of deterioration of cables, anchorages, fluttering of deck slab due to high wind speed, heavy rains
or poor workmanship, geological problems etc. These cable bridges must systematically be monitored with instrumentation
(health monitoring) since the inception of these bridges (like in case of signature bridge in Delhi) and protected them from
the risk of corrosion of cables, loosening of anchors and vibration etc.
Efforts shall be made to have consequences of failure to be dealt critically besides retracing processes and procedures leading
to accidents in operation of construction machinery before, during construction and after operation with a view to improve
performance or life of a component, or to assist in determining the facts of failure and its solution.
There are different types of suspension bridges (Punalur, Kerala, Laxman Jhula, Tehri Dam, Ramjhula etc) and cable bridges
(Vidyasagar and Nivedita Setu WB, Bandra Worli Seal Link, Yamuna Bridge Allahabad, Akkar Bridge Sikkim, Signature
bridge in Delhi, cable bridges in J&K and Indore etc) in India. The paper here describes problems experienced in India and
abroad in such/similar bridges and their solution, in context of finding real causes of failure of cable bridges.
1. Introduction Being a product made mostly in the field, where varying

conditions exist, understanding of variations and their
There has been rapid increase in technologies in concrete
influence of organizing strict control on quality and
and composite construction during the past 2-3 decades.
ensuring total satisfaction is of paramount importance
Concrete is the second most widely used construction
with better performance.
material for civil engineering structures in the world.
Nevertheless, over the years, special types of cement, It is extremely difficult to keep pace with the advancements
concrete and admixtures have been in use in fibre reinforced in concrete technology and translate them for useful
concrete, polymer concrete, high density concrete, high- purposes on the construction projects. There is a great
strength concrete, high performance concrete, ultra need of forensic engineering in transportation technology
high performance concrete etc. enabling to make a right with current knowledge of standards.
choice. 2. Proposed New Technologies and
A keen engineer conscious of quality and economy of Materials Partly or Fully for
these diversified materials and technologies have realized Making Cable Bridges
concept of forensic engineering that this require proper 2.1. Following innovative technologies (some of
understanding to derive maximum benefit like strength, which partly or fully may be tried/used in cable
durability, appearance and such other essential qualities bridges) not only will make the environment
of concrete along with economy to avoid any accident green but will make the project more cost effective
failure of the vehicles with structures or alone as structure. besides many added technical advantages:
*
Consultant, Ex. Scientist, CRRI, D 24, Amar Colony, New Delhi 110024

TECHNICAL PAPER
2.1.1 Amorphous Metallic Fibre Reinforced Industry: In Italy, very high performance concrete/
Concrete: As compared to conventional concrete, mortar has been in use having compressive
steel fibre as macro fibres reinforced concrete strength of 60 MPa at 1 day and 100 M Pa and
combining with fibres amorphous metallic fibres flexural strength 10 MPa at 28 day.
or micro fibres reinforced concrete) with very high
2.1.7 Nano silica: It is recent addition which is
bonding characteristics , a substantial increase in
synthesized artificially in powder or colloidal
flexural strength (up to maximum of 6.4 MPa at
form. By addition of 0.2 kg of concrete, nano
28 days) (about 50% more than conventional),
silica fume gives same effect as of 1 kg of silica
improve ductility, and post cracking performance
fume. In other words, increase in strength is about
resulting in ductile regime in the load deflection
3 times than the increase with silica fume when
response of the concrete. It has been reported that
this hybrid mix consists of both fibres about 15kg/ content was about 5-7% by weight of cement. Its
m3 allowing very thin sections.1 main product i.e. ultra-high performance concrete
has minimum compressive strength of 150
2.1.2 Accelerated Bridge Construction (ABC) and MPa (ACI sub-committee 239-A) and has less
Use of Dowel bars in Connections: In this pre-stress loss in pre-stressed girder. With this
utilizing precast bridge construction in planned strength of concrete the cover will not be less and
manner to promote accelerated bridge construction there is more contribution of transition zone than
in high seismic regions, connections between pre conventional concrete.
cast I shaped Girders and Precast Inverted Tee
Cap Beam are provided with ducts through the 2.1.8 Current Standards on Cement and Aggregates:
interface between the girder bottom flange and the IS: 16415-2015 on composite cement containing
lower regions of the cap beam and then grouted in slag, fly ash and some portion of cement, IS; 269-
place. (Caltrans). 2015 on all Ordinary Portland cements, IRC: 109
on thin dia piles and IS:383- 2016 on aggregate
2.1.3 Incrementally Pre-stressed Concrete: Further in specification,
Korea IPC (Incrementally Pre-stressed concrete)
girder, is in practice widely with gaining potential 3. Brief about Forensic Engineering
advantages of short girder height, light weight, for Investigating and Evaluation
the smallest span to depth ratio, and economical of Materials for Cable Bridges
girder of all kinds of bridges. 3.1. Forensic engineering may be considered to be
2.1.4 Cement-Reduced Concrete Technology: helpful in supporting new technologies, as forensic
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) (HS engineering helps in avoiding future failures of
Muller) and Institute of Concrete Structures and structures thereby saving a lot of natural materials,
Building Materials (IMB) Karlsruhe (M Haist cement and potential energy required for their
and M Vogel) in Germany developed cement- manufacturing or getting into the shape of their
reduced concrete technology independent of use.
cementitious materials by using design process 3.1.1 History of Forensic Engineering: In the 18th
centre on packing optimization of the granular
century, the term civil engineering (Second oldest
mix constituents, thereby reducing the cement
engineering) next to Military engineering (1st
content by nearly two thirds.2
oldest Engineering) was coined to incorporate all
2.1.5 High Strength Self-Compacted Concrete: In things civilian as opposed to military engineering.
China high strength self-compacted concrete The first civil engineer was John Smeaton (Father
(M 70/C 70) is being used with suitable dosage of civil engineering), who constructed the Eddy
of super adsorbent polymer (SAP) which shows stone Lighthouse during 17th century. As the field
much better performance than the use of shrinkage- of engineering has evolved over time, so has the
reducing admixtures prepared with expansive field of forensic engineering. Early examples
agent. The slump is 240 mm and the flow was include investigation of bridge failures such as the
700 mm and flow loss was less than 10%. This Tay rail bridge disaster of 1879 in Scotland and
material has been used in highest building more the Dee bridge disaster of 1847 in Chester.
than 600 m in China.
3.1.2 Forensic engineering is the investigation of
2.1.6 White Silica Fume Produced from Zirconium materials, products, cable bridges or components

TECHNICAL PAPER
that fail or do not operate or function as intended, incidents that result in claims or litigation. A
causing personal injury or damage to property. new ASTM International main committee is
The consequences of failure are dealt with by the creating standards that will provide guidelines for
law of product liability. The field also deals with experts who investigate product defect, vehicular,
retracing processes and procedures leading to electrical and industrial process incidents.
accidents in operation of vehicles or machinery. 3.1.8 Now, there are two International Journals on
The subject is applied most commonly in civil Forensic Engineering that is “International Journal
law cases, although it may be of use in criminal of Forensic Engineering” and “International
law cases. Generally the purpose of a Forensic Journal of Forensic Engineering and Management”.
engineering investigation is to locate cause Haijian Shi of Pepco Holdings in Washington DC
or causes of failure with a view to improve and Kong Fah Tee of the Department of Civil
performance or life of a component, or to assist Engineering, at the University of Greenwich,
a court in determining the facts of an accident. in Kent, UK, explain that barriers can protect
It can also involve investigation of intellectual property and save lives during hurricane season.
property claims, especially patents. Flood walls, gates and joints are the mainstays
3.1.3 Alternatively, Forensic engineering means offering of their design; however budgetary constraints,
evaluation critically, reporting, and expert witness geographical limitations and constructability often
testimony considering accidental geotechnical limit the implementation of the most effective
and environmental conditions with regard to cable barriers in some regions.
bridges. Vital to the field of forensic engineering 3.1.9 President of the Board of Engineers Malaysia
is the process of investigating and collecting data reported in May 2004 in the Bulletin that no one
related to the materials, structures or components would want to see a structure collapse or fail, but
that failed. This involves inspections, collecting the fact remains that failures do occur. When a
evidence, measurements, developing models, structure collapses, the finger is invariably pointed
obtaining case studies, and revising future at the structural engineer. But what is needed in
design. the first place is to determine the exact cause of
3.1.4 As per National Academy of Forensic Engineering the failure through forensic engineering. The goal
Florida, Forensic Engineering is "the application of a forensic programme is to positively identify
of the art and science of engineering in matters the sequence of events leading to ultimate failure.
which are in, or may possibly relate to, the Within the broad field of engineering, the practice
jurisprudence system, inclusive of alternative of forensic engineering involves the investigation
dispute resolution. “ of failures of structures. Forensic engineers
examine broken parts and bring together a list of
3.1.5 There are Guidelines for Forensic Engineering
probable failure mechanisms to be investigated.
Practice 2012 by ASCE, USA which describes the
The final step in forensic engineering is to use
technical, ethical, business, and legal components
analytical and testing tools to confirm the findings
of the professional practice in forensic civil
of fact. A good forensic engineer will investigate
engineering in the United States. (http://www.
any incident in a structured, scientific manner.
asce.org/templates/publications-book-detail.
He will be skilled in collecting and recording
aspx3D7049). These may be applied in cable
evidence in a manner that will withstand scrutiny.
bridges with some modification.
There is a need to develop this area of forensic
3.1.6 As per Wikipedia, Forensic engineering is the engineering.
investigation of materials, products, structures or
3.1.10 Considering highway projects, as per FHWA/TX-
components that fail or do not operate or function
03/1731-3F - The University of Texas at Austin
as intended, causing personal injury or damage to
the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT)
property.
supported a research project on “Development of
3.1.7. ASTM (2015) is making the Case for a New A Formal Forensic Investigation Procedure for
Main Committee on Forensic Engineering (Adele Pavements” designed to develop formal procedures
Bassett). Forensic engineers depend on their for conducting forensic investigations on failed
education, training and experience to investigate pavements. The procedure is based on a scientific

TECHNICAL PAPER
method that can ensure that future investigations bridges in India, connect Bandra with Worli
are completed more efficiently and effectively. and part of the proposed Western Freeway. The
The main advantages of a successful forensic Bandra–Worli Sea Link is a civil engineering
investigation include (1) determining the cause marvel with 5.6 kilometer long,420 ft high towers
of the distress, (2) selecting the appropriate repair which crosses the Arabian Sea.
strategy, (3) determining how fast the distress is ii. The Second Hooghly Bridge is known as
propagating, (4) prioritizing distressed pavement Vidyasagar Setu, A Cable-Stayed bridge over the
sections, (5) improving design practices, and (6) Hooghly River in West Bengal. Vidyasagar Setu
updating construction techniques. is longest cable–stayed bridge in India and one of
the longest in Asia
3.1.11 There are 42 engineering colleges which cover iii. The New Yamuna Bridge is one of the longest
Forensic Science and many of them have been cable-stayed bridge in India, connecting the city
introducing Forensic Engineering in India. of Allahabad to its neighborhood of Naini in
International Forensic Engineering, Education Allahabad. New Yamuna Bridge is constructed
Department (Govt. of India & Govt. of Maharashtra across the Yamuna river.
Regd., ISO 9001-2008 Certified & Regd. with iv. A cable-stayed bridge over Hooghly River next
DUNS & U.S. Federal Govt. CCR database); to Vivekananda Setu and marvelous attractions
affiliated with bodies recognized, approved and of West Bengal. Nivedita Setu is the first bridge
promoted by the Planning Commission, Govt. of in the country that is a single profile cable-stayed
India, Indian Parliament etc, BSS NDA Aff. No. bridge.
MAHA/5097 started Forensic Engineering (2012) v. Akkar Bridge is Indias first cable stayed bridge
on the following topics: located in Jorethang, Sikkim. The Cable-stayed
i.) Introduction to Forensic Science, Intro. to concrete bridge is built over Rangit River on a
Branches of Forensic Science single tower.
vi. A Cable-Stayed Bridge is located at Haridwar-
ii.) Introduction to Forensic Experts, Introduction
Rishikesh Road over Ganges river. Haridwar
to Crime Investigation, Brief information about
Cable-Stayed Bridge is Asia’s only bridge that
terminologies related to Forensic Sciences etc…
suspends on mere Cables.
iii.) Forensic Engineering, Fire/Arson Investigation, vii. Raja Bhoj Cable Stay Bridge was inaugurated
Vehicle Accidents, etc. on 26 May 2017, Connecting Kamla Park to VIP
4. Major Cable Bridges In India Road Crossing. The 220 metre long cable stay
bridge is Madhya Pradesh’s first cable stay bridge
A cable-stayed bridge has one or more towers to support on the Upper Lake of Bhopal.
the bridge deck using the cables, Basically Cable-Stayed
viii. Ram Jhula cable-stayed bridge in Nagpur Railway
Bridges are longer than cantilever bridges and shorter
station yard is a six-lane cable-stayed bridge,
than suspension bridges. There may be extremely high recently opens for traffic evening.
wind speed, highest flood level, severe temperature and
ix. Surat Cable Stayed Bridge- A cable-stayed bridge
relative humidity. Such parameters may be accidently
connecting Bhavnagar to Bhal region, The bridge
altered from their design values or design limits, such that has reduced distance to Bhavnagar by 30 km.
values shall be taken care seriously by the forensic/design
engineers (during construction temporary form work or x. Kota Chambal Bridge in Kota, Rajasthan over
the Chambal River, supported by the National
enabled form work and before or after the design life of
Highways Authority of India just outside the city.
the structures) with higher factor of safety as compared Such types of brides shall be constructed in some
to conventional bridges considering the above mentioned very serious manners as Crocodiles are there in
basic facts of cable bridges both either cable stayed or the Chambal Rivers, the similar accidents shall
suspension including extra dosed bridges and very high not happen again in future construction
cost of these bridges. xi. The Chiraiyatand over bridge in Patna
There is a need to regularly health monitoring of Cable xii. Country's highest and 2nd longest span Cable
Bridges in India, as is being done in case of Signature Stayed Bridge built by SP Singla at Basohli in
Bridge by CPWD, M/S Gammon India Limited and J&K on 24th Dec'2015.
MAGEBA. Major of these are listed as under: xiii. Cable-stayed bridges over the river Kosi between
i. Rajiv Gandhi Sea Link is one of the most stunning Chhapra and Arrah in Bihar

TECHNICAL PAPER
5. Case Studies of Forensic Engineering

5.1 Case 1: During Construction of Signature Bridge
Problems are being faced in procurement of machineries,
materials, Geotechnical problems and skilled manpower
etc. The requirement of heavy crane having capacity of
lifting 20000 T; Very thick Steel plate for deck having
a span of about 250m of thickness more than 100mm,
gradual increase /decrease in thickness of deck, integrated
pile having lifting capacity of about 50000 tonnes, and
during bore holing; occurrence of very hard rock inclined Fig. 1 B
in shape. A problem in cutting such rocks at 30-40 m down
was also one of the serious problems. In Signature Bridge
(cable stayed bridge which is under construction in Delhi)
efforts have been made to solve problems with the support
of experts from Belgium, China and Germany. In these for
lifting, crane of 20000 tonnes capacity where the control
is with Belgium people and rent of machine is about Rs
1.5 crores per month. China is supplying thick steel plates;
Rock cutter has been imported from Japan etc. To support
forensic engineering, since beginning health monitoring
using most modern sensors have been installed to study
behaviors of each component i.e deflection, strain,
cracking if any, temperature, wind speed etc. The latest Fig. 1 C
IRC codes on bi directional load testing of mono piles,
Geo Physical Investigation, IRC 5, IRC 6, IRC: 22, IRC:
24 and IRC : 112 and IRC draft code on Cable Bridges/
Extra dosed bridges shall be refered and implemented to
avoid future accidents.
5.2 Case 2: General Failure in Cable Bridges Figure
1 shows different failure/fluttering/flapping of cable
bridges as shown in Fig. 1,(a), (b) and (c) earlier due to
very high wind speed. The remedial measure suggested
is use of stable truss at the bottom of the full deck slab as
per design in case of fluttering. Fig. 1 (d) shows a failure Fig. 1 D
occurs in Kota Bridge over Chambal River in Rajasthan Fig. 1 Earlier Failure of Cable Stayed Bridges
due to accidental reasons. The correction has been rectified
particularly grade of concrete, design workmanship etc. Fig. 2 shows protection of Pylons again collision as shown
Now the bridge is opened to traffic. in the Fig. 2 and to avoid damage to the foundation.
Fig. 2: Pylon Protection Against Collision

Fig. 1 A Earlier Failure of Cable Stayed Bridges

TECHNICAL PAPER
5.3 Case 3. After Construction: The broken fuel pipe

caused a serious accident when diesel fuel poured out
from a van onto the road. A following car skidded and the
driver was seriously injured when the driver collided with
an oncoming lorry. The nylon connector had fractured by
stress corrosion cracking due to a small leak of battery
acid. Nylon is susceptible to hydrolysis when in contact
with sulfuric acid, and only a small leak of acid would have
sufficed to start a brittle crack in the injection moulded
nylon 6, 6 connector by stress corrosion cracking. Once
the crack had penetrated the inner bore, fuel started leaking
onto the road.
Diesel fuel is especially hazardous on road surfaces if it
forms a thin, oily film that cannot be easily seen by drivers
and surface may cause skidding. The insurers of the van Fig. 5: Fracture in Anchorage
driver admitted liability and the injured driver were (WJE Associates Inc.)
compensated. In another case, electrocution was the case
of accident. Hazard Assessment analysis was carried out 5.4 Hazard Assessment Analysis: The hazard associated
in this case. (Fig. 3-5) with the crane is an electrical shock. The manufacturer was
aware of the hazard of the crane coming into contact with
overhead power lines. So, warning on the cranes stated:
“Danger! Stay away from machine if close to power
lines. Machine load and ground can become electrified
and deadly” The construction worker was injured when
crane came in contact with overhead power line and the
load, the concrete bucket, became electrified. Proximity
warning device and insulating links represent at least
two guarding options that would have prevented the
Fig. 3.a: Common type Cable Duct Surface in Cable electrical shock accident. Forensic Engineer concluded
that warning on the crane was inadequate and substitute
for safety options available to the crane manufacturer.
Crane manufacturer could have designed a safer piece of
equipment.
6. CONCLUSION
Construction of cable bridges is very expensive in certain
cases, and due to dimensions of the cable bridges, failure
of them/ snapping of stays etc. can endanger lives of many
people.
Fig. 3.b: Dampers on Bridge Cables Close spacing of cables can reduce longitudinal bending
moments in the deck and the deck thickness. The protective
metal coating except epoxy coating must be applied to
individual wires as they are manufactured.
Due to using high tech and current specification in
both design and construction of cable bridges, by more
information sharing, the number of cable bridge failures
may decrease and future cable bridges may have better
performances. To avoid fluttering, truss can be designed at
the bottom of the deck slabs in Cable bridges.
Fig. 4: Cross-tie on Cables
(Credit by: FHWA) Shrinkage cracks may appear in case of use of Silica for

TECHNICAL PAPER
exit of high temperature for which proper curing and 24 accelerated bridge construction in high seismic
hour sack curing are must. In case of appearance of micro regions and Application of C 70 Self Compacting
cracks multiple wash of approved sealing compound with Concrete in a Construction Project of Skyscraper, in
4th Asian Conference on Ecstasy in Concrete, ICI-
continuous operation should be applied till it is sealed and
ACECON 8-10th Oct 2015 Kolkata.
closed.
iii. www.tawfikgroup.com.au/Forensic Engineering and
Forensic engineering has grown substantially in recent Material Failure Analysis.html
years as consumers have demanded ever-increasing levels
iv. http://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-
of quality. Premature product failure deprives the users of technology/engineering-and-technology/engineering/
that product particularly when using innovative designs. introduction-forensic-engineering/content-section-0
References: v. Shi, H. and Tee, K.F. (2014) ‘Review of design and
i. Performance of Concrete Reinforced with Combination construction of hurricane protection barriers’, Int. J.
of Amorphous metallic and conventional steel fibres, Forensic Engineering, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp.144–151.
by Ravinder Gettu and Sunitha K Nayar, 4th Asian vi. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forensic_engineering
Conference on Ecstasy in Concrete, ICI-ACECON
vii. https://www.crcpress.com/Forensic-Materials-
8-10th Oct 2015 Kolkata.
Engineering-Case-Studies/Lewis-Reynolds-Gagg/
ii. Utilizing precast bridge Construction to Promote 9780849311826
IRC Technical Committees Meeting Schedule for February, 2019
Date Day Time Name of the Committee
Specialized Bridge Structures including Sealinks Committee

01-02-19 Fri 11.00 AM
(B-9)
General Design Features (Bridges and Grade Separated

01-02-19 Fri 2.30 PM
Structures) Committee (B-1)
02-02-19 Sat 11.00 AM Bearings, Joints and Appurtenances Committee (B-6)
02-02-19 Sat 11.00 AM Hill Roads & Tunnels Committee (H-10)
Foundation, Sub-Structure, Protective Works and Masonry

09-02-19 Sat 11.00 AM
Structures Committee (B-3)
09-02-19 Sat 10.30 AM Loads and Stresses Committee (B-2)
15-02-19 Fri 2.30 PM Road Maintenance and Asset Management Committee (H-6)
18-02-19 Mon 12.00 Noon Human Resource Development Committee (G-2)

TECHNICAL PAPER
SMART TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM CITING BEST PRACTICES AND ITS

RELEVANCE IN INDIAN CITIES
Prof. P.K.Sarkar* Dr. Ravi Sekhar Chalumuri**
abstruct
Due to rapid urbansization, most of the cities of different sizes in India face severe traffic problems. Traditional transportation
modes hevily depending on gasolin based fuel are not geared to ensure the less pollution, mobility and safety needs for the
society at large. Due to this reason, incesssant movement of traffic continues to be the causes of traffic congestion, air and
noise pollution coupled with the occurance of road accidents resulting to the losses of human lives. The Government of India
has also initiated to develop 100 smart cities. In this context, an attempt has been made to appreciate the role on importance
of smart transportation which would be an only solution not only towards addressing the presnt transport problems in
the cities but also help ensure greater degree of mobility and safety to the smart cities. At this backdrop, an attempt has
been made to explore ways and means to appreciate the role and importance of the smart transportation in general and its
applications in cities and best practices in particular.
1. INTRODUCTION five in 2001, the amount of metropolitan cities rose to fifty

as per the Census of India, 2011. Out of those fifty, eight
1.1 Urbanization
cities – Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad,
A lot has been said about Urbanization and its impact on the Bangalore, Ahmedabad, and Pune – have population more
society as a whole. Urbanization is the result of urban pull than five million.
and rural push. Globalization, liberalization, privatization
In order to address the problems of urbanisation, it is
are the primary inputs for the process for urbanization in
increasing being felt that application of smart city concept
India. And the numbers are indeed endearing! According
may alleviate urbanisation problems causing the city
to varied reports, the number of urban agglomeration /town
unsustainable. Keepiing this mind, it would be worth
has grown from 1827 in 1901 to 7935 in 2011. Population
-attemptting to demonstrate some examples that make the
residing in urban areas has recorded an increase from 2.58
city smart using smart technologies in the form ITS. The
crore in 1901 to 37.7 crore in 2011 accounting for 32% of
concept of a smart city( 2,3) is a relatively new one. Cities
population living in urban areas as per 2001 census. The
in the developed world are formulating and applying
figures alone should have you feeling bearish about the
ICT master plans and then using these plans to develop a
impact of urbanization.
citywide command and control network that monitors and
According to the 2011 census(1), the current population of optimizes the delivery of services like power, water, traffic
India is 1.21 billion. The population is likely to grow at the and healthcare
speed of 1.8-1.5% each year by 2030. Urban population in
As such, there’s no simple definition for smart cities.
India was to the tune of 17% in 1951 that increased to
The term encompasses a vision of an urban space that
32% in 2011 and is likely to go up to around 40% by the
is ecologically friendly, technologically integrated and
year 2040.
meticulously planned, with a particular reliance on the
However, the metropolitan cities – those with a million plus use of information technology to improve efficiency.
population – has gone up sharply over this era. From thirty There are a number of cities in the world who are declared
*
Director (Transportation), Asian Institute of Transport Development, New Delhi
**
Principal Scientist, CSIR- Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi

TECHNICAL PAPER
to be smart cities are namely New York, Armstardom, • Roads & Bridges
Calgery, Vancouver, Tokyo, Singapore, Bejing and • Inland Water Transport System
Shangai and Seoul. These cities have also faced serious
problems and challenges in the past and presently enjoys • Rail Transportation system
the fruits of the development of smart cities. Ireland has • Sidewalks
made significat effort to formulate a detailed plan and
• Cable System
programme though smart technology. It states(3) that
smart Grids and Smart Cities involve the application of • NMT
advanced electrical engineering and service technologies, • Aviation Facilities
facilitated by ICT and accompanying solutions to more
effectively and efficiently manage complex infrastructure 2. Traffic Problems & Issues-
systems. They open up new markets for existing and new 2.1 Congestion and parking: These are the most common
technologies, with the level of system benefits justifying transport bottlenecks in huge urban agglomerations,
their use within major infrastructural investments. They especially connected with motorization and the increase of
typically use a layer of technology(4), including software, the car and personalized vehicles, which have necessitated
sensor hardware and control and interface systems, which the expansion of the demand of transport infrastructure.
can be embedded in the design of new infrastructure or The supply of infrastructure has not kept pace with the
applied to existing infrastructure, harnessing and applying capacity to stay aware of the mobility growth. Motorization
real time data to create more intelligent, interconnected has extended the demand for parking spot, which has given
and integrated systems which provide higher quality and rise to space utilization issues very seriously in central
higher efficiency services to the citizen. area.
1.2 Motorization i. Longer commuting- Apart from traffic congestion,

people are spending an increasing amount of
As per the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways time commuting between their residence and
(MoRTH)(5), the number of vehicles has increased to 142 workplace. A critical element behind this pattern
million in 2011 in India. During the period of 2000 and is identified with the trend related to residential
2009 ,the growth rate urbanization automobile is 3.16 affordability as housing located further away from
% and 9.6% respectively. A majority of cars in India are central areas (where most of the employment
focused in urban Centers and it's surprising to belive that remains concentrated) is more affordable. Along
32% of those vehicles are plying in metropolitan cities these lines, workers are exchanging time for
alone that represent simply around only 15% of the whole housing affordability.
population. It’s interesting to state that Delhi experiences
ii. Public transport inadequacy- Many public
around 1.4% of the Indian population, accounting for
transit systems or parts of them, are either over
over 7% of all motor vehicles within the country. There
or under used. Uneasiness for users created by
are already over 8 million registered motor vehicles in
crowded public transport in peak hours resulted in
Delhi and concerning 1200 vehicles are being registered low patronage especially for the affluent section
daily. Two-wheelers and cars account for over 85% of the and compelled other section to switch over to
vehicle population in most of the metropolitan cities. personalized modes which makes many services
1.3 Transport system Characteristics financially unsustainable, particularly in suburban
areas. Disregarding critical endowments and
The transport System has a wide range of transportation
cross-financing (e.g. tolls) almost every public
facilities that represent a variety of transportation modes
transit systems can't produce adequate revenue to
for both passengers and freight transport. Thefollowing cover its operational and capital expenses.
components make up the multimodal transportation
system: iii. Difficulties for non-motorized transport-
Because of the intense traffic, the versatility of
• Public transport vehicles such as Bus, Tram, LRT, walkers, bikes and vehicles is impaired. A blatant
MRT, Electric Buses, Mono rail etc. absence of thought for walkers and bikes in the
• Freight such as Truck, Tempo , Rail and aviation physical design of infrastructures and facilities
and IWT carga etc. likewise are the primary cause for the non-

TECHNICAL PAPER
consideration of bicycle as mode. any smart transportation system, ICT play a vital role
without which developement of Smart Transportation
iv. High maintenance costs- Financial deficiencies
have been facing for aging transport infrastructure, is not possible. Smart Cities ( 4) connect governments
for maintenance costs as well as pressures to much more closely to people. They provide the support
upgrade to more modern infrastructure infrastructure to deliver new services, and address a
wide range of urban challenges – from environmental
v. Environmental impacts and energy sustainability to job creation and economic growt
consumption- Pollution, including air and noise,
generated due vehicular movements has become Technology for public use should be up-to-date and
a serious impediment to the quality of life and user-friendly. Integration of technology in transport has
even the health of urban population. Further, witnessed wider applications in European countries and
energy consumption by urban transportation has few asian coutries. One of the comprehensive technology
dramatically increased. used for transportation is ITS. In Indian scenario, it
has been one of the priority areas of National Urban
vi. Accidents and safety- Growing traffic in urban Transport Policy 2006 ( 6 ). The use of ITS has gone up
areas is linked with a growing number of accidents significantly over years in data managing, information
and fatalities, especially in developing countries. and operation of transport systems. ITS provides benefits
As traffic increases, people feel less safe to use the like, better capacity utilization of existing infrastructure
streets. In India, every four there is a fatal accident with reduction in travel time, improvemt in the reliability
while every one minute there is an accident. and faster and easier response to any accidents and other
In this contxt, smart transport system is necessary for an real time information. Intelligent Transport System is
integral part for any smart city being planned in India. synonymous to smart and intelligent technology that
integrates and combines organizational, institutional and
3. THE NEED FOR SMART TRANSPORATION
management of transport systems and acts as catalyst in
For an efficient transportation system to exist, each decision making and planning. Main utilities of ITS in this
mode of the transportation system must be connected domain to provide intelligent, trouble-free, seamless and
to and mutually supportive of each other. Each part of coherent services are:
the system is imperative that provides accessibility and
i. M
odern digital & intelligent infrastructure and
mobility to meet the travel requirements of residents in
management
and other travelers, or to transport various types of freight
seamlessly . • Traffic signal and its controlling
Having said that, it’s extremely important to build such • Safe & secure mobility for Pedestrian
transportation system in a city which will aim to minimize • Convenient and comfortable travelling
traffic congestion, reducing vehicular emission and road
accidents to zero level and simultaneously promotes to ii. Huge data base with real time information
comprehensive mobility, and safety through all types freight • Public transport operations with Mobilty Cards (6)
and passenger transports which calls for development of
smart transportation that can be an integral part of a smart • Traffic management and optimization
city. • GPS based tracking
According to Smart City Council(2, 6), an industry driven • congestion reduction
organization working in India, “A smart city uses
iii. Data and public centric information transparency
Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to
enhance its livability, workability and sustainability. In • Provision of Trip and travel information
simplest terms, there are three parts to that job: collecting, • Assistance for Safe Driving & navigation system
communicating and “crunching.” First, a smart city collects
information about itself through sensors, other devices iv. Quick service delivery
and existing systems. Next, it communicates that data • Automated services like Parking fees,
using wired or wireless networks. Third, it “crunches”
• Electronic Toll collections
(analyzes) that data to understand what’s happening
now and what’s likely to happen next.” For developing • Automated Congestion pricings

TECHNICAL PAPER
Having said that, it is extremely imperative to user for Use of non-conventional or alternative source
smart transporttation in order to improve transportation of energy such as solar power, bio fuel, liquid
system not only for the existing existing cities but also for hydrogen etc. to reduce the impact on air
those cities who are going to be smart city in future. pollution with respect to gasoline based vehicle’s
emission leading to zero air pollution
4. MOBILITY IN SMART CITIES
To develop ITS architecture & master plan for
As mentioned earlier, transportation sector plays a very safe and efficient movement of travel and Zero
crucial role to make the smart cities efficient safe and Road accidents
smarter by ensuring mobility for all irrespective of any kind
5. STATUS OF SMART TECHNOLOGIES IN
road users including children, old, woman and physically
PAST YEARS FOR TRANSPORTATION IN
disabled. Mobility is one of the key components of smart
INDIA
cities. Many developed cites like London, New York,
Munich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore Several Indian cities like Hyderabad, Surat, Coimbatore,
and Amsterdam etc. are increasingly resorting on to Bengaluru, Mangalore, Jamshedpur, Kanpur, Delhi,
improving to quality of life by enhancing smart mobility Mumbai, and Chennai, Nai Raipur, Surat, Kochi have
though a wider applications of Intelligent Transport already begun deploying a few smart technologies to
System. efficiently provide civic services. Civic services that have
gone smart:
We have to ask ourselves whether to increase, significantly,
the capacity of our transport corridors (road, rail, air, sea). • Deployment of advanced communications systems
This must be done whilst simultaneously reducing accident • Metro rail systems
rates, pollution and congestion. We can achieve our
capacity goals either by building more fixed infrastructure, • Traffic management systems using BTRACK in
Bangalore
or by using our existing infrastructure more intelligently.
More fixed infrastructure takes decades to plan and build, • Corrodor Traffic Signal Syncronization using on
costs huge sums of money, and makes no significant SCOOT sometime back in Delhi
contribution to reducing accident rates or pollution. More • Parking charges using on-line computer system at
intelligent control is a very attractive alternative on all Palika Bazar
these counts. Make roads and cities smarter
• Finding shortest time and path between pair of
Some important aspects that should be considered for origin and destination in smart mobile.
mobility in smart cities are So far significant progress towards developing smart
• Ease of movement is at the core of smart city transportation is not much visible so far in our country.
• The transport system emphasizes walking, cycling 6. APPLICATIONS OF INTELLIGENT
and PT as the primary means for comprehensive TRANSPORT STSTEM FOR MAKING
mobility with personal motor vehicles being SMART CITIES
actively discouraged.
In order to make the city smart, ITS would be one of the
• Freight movement network at low cost and high
speed like developing a dedicated freight corridor key elements to transportation system safe , efficient and
in the region. sustainable . Road side ITS are as under:
• Improved mobility through a three pronged Roadside equipment for speed enforcement and
approach violation of red light
Planning, Design and Implémentation/ Surveillance
Improvements of Public Transport – Metro, Patrolling
BRT, LRT, Monorail, PRT etc.
Advance Traffic Management
Planning, Design and Implémentation /
Improvement in transport infrastructure–ring • Traffic Control Centre
roads, bypasses, improvements in the existing • Traffic Information Centres
road ways
• Variable Message Signs
Planning, Design and Implémentation /
Improvements in infrastructure for walking, • Radio Channel
cycling and waterways • Automatic Incident Detection

TECHNICAL PAPER
• Re-routing of traffic in case of events safety, sustainability, efficiency and comfort beyond
• Pre-trip traffic information systems the scope of stand-alone systems. It also addresses the
following situations
A number of technologies are increasingly being used for
i. Hazard warning
deployment of ITS that includes the following:
ii. Data collection & traffic monitoring
Anti-collision systems such as
iii. In-vehicle signage (speed, incident, guidance…)
Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS)
iv. Secure truck parking (highway)
Lane Departure Warning Systems (LDWS).
v. City loading & resource management (trucks)
Systems that detect driver condition Black Box
vi. Cooperative traffic network management
• Location-based information
The primary vision of CVS is to develop a mechanism to
• Electronic Vehicle Stability Control (EVSC)
make the transportation safe , efficient and smarter.
• Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
Vehicle to Vehicle (V-V) or Vehicle to Infrastructure (V-I)
• Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) are the fundamental concept of CVS to make vehicles’
The Indian Roads Congress (IRC) has already brought movement safe and efficient. This includes
out Guidelines on ITS i.e. IRC:SP:110-2017 “Application • Zero Conflict
of Intelligent Transport System for Urban Roads” where
• Automatic emergency call system
Smart Transportation System has been discussed to a great
extent. • Electronic Toll Collection (ETC)
7. SMART TRANSPORTATION THROUGH • Safe & Efficient Fleet management
Cooperative Vehicle and Highway • Integration of Traffic Message Channel (TMC) into
System navigation devices Traffic and navigation
In order to make smart transportation, it is extremely • Parking Services
important to develop Co-operative Vehicle s& Highway • Information services
System( 7) which can be said as under:
• Collaboration & Interoperability
it communicates and - shares information between ITS
stations to moving vehicles on the roads and give advice • Emergency and safety
or - facilitate actions with the objective of improving - • Intelligent driving
Fig 1 Show the Concept of CVS

TECHNICAL PAPER
IT provider
• Applications
• Software Market partners
Government
• Manufacturer
• Transport
• Suppliers
• Safety
• Localities
USERS of
All KINDS
Transactional Infrastructure
• Tolls • Utilities
• Parking • Charging pts.
Multimodal • Telecom
• Bus
• Train / Metro
• Cycle
Fig. 2 Eco Sytem for Smart Transport

8. Case Studies By developing ‘Quality Incentive Contracts’ the city is
rejuvinating with increase in bus services, which added
8.1 London
financial incentives for operators to improve the efficiency
Most of the cities have demonstrated (what) by introducing with quality and reliability of the services resulting in
new pricing and system management techniques to additional ridership.
improve good environmental and economic efficiencies.
b. Automated traffic enforcement
These techniques can help to improve urban sustainability
by ensuring that the historical centers of metropolitan Traffic enforcement require a huge amount of commitment
areas remain economically competitive. London is the best of police and judicial resources in case of traditional
demonstration in the recent years, under the leadership approaches. Along with this, enforcement actions
of its mayor, Ken Livingstone. The Comprehensive themselves may give rise to worsening traffic conditions
transportation policy of London touches on virtually all of on busy streets. To address these difficulties many cities
the themes. A few of them are explained below: are resorting to camera-based enforcement of speed
limits, red lights, and other traffic laws. Once the violations
a. Comprehensive bus system management
get detected, these systems works on for license plate
London(8), launched a transformation in bus service recognition to identify errant vehicle owners. They are
throughout London in order to promote in increase in the typically prosecuted less expensively through the civil
bus ridership that are expected due to the congestion charge, courts.
Transport for London. This increased the frequencies of
This strategy is evolved in London to enforce its
buses (using revenues from the congestion charge), and
congestion charge and to maintain the effectiveness of its
developed the London Bus Priority Network, an 860 km
bus priority Network. Vehicles using bus lanes illegally
system of streets managed and enforced to otimize the
are being identified by the fixed and bus mounted cameras,
efficiency of bus service. This initiative has resulted in 70
generating evidence for enforcement through the civil
‘Busplus’ routes that are featured with advanced passenger
courts. Along with the introduction of the congestion
information, real-time bus arrival displays, more regular
charge, the adoption of automated bus lane enforcement
cleaning, low floor buses, modern bus shelters, transit
has dramatically improved the speed and reliability of
priority traffic signals, and automatic vehicle location and
bus service in central London.This attempts to use smart
driver instruction systems to decrease busbunching and
technology based on RFID , Micro wave and InfraRed
increase reliability.

TECHNICAL PAPER
system for identifying and detecting the vehicles in the

congestion pricing zones in London.
8.2 Seoul, South KoreA
In South Korea, smart cities are expressed as the prefix
'U' - U-City, U-Health, U-Gov, etc. The 'U' stands for
ubiquitous - a term favoured in South Korea to express
the ubiquitousness (all pervasive) nature of IT in general
and the Internet in particular. This is how South Korean's
contemplate the city to be based on future information
society and its associated knowledge based economy. The
aim of U-city is to innovate and build an environment
where any citizen can get any services anywhere and
anytime through any ICT devices. Tremendous speeding Fig 3.0 TOPIS, Seoul
in ICT development has brought the conventional city in
8.2.1.1 Functions of TOPIS
terms of intelligence, innovation and evolution to E-city
and then to U-city. The U-city development project is an - Manage real-time traffic flow
integral part of the national strategy towards U-Korea. As - Supply information on traffic congestion:
a national urban development project U-city emphasizes - Real-time management of bus operations
the importance of strengthening the role of ITS to be • Monitor traffic situations and supply congestion
integral part of urban planning and management. information promptly
Incheon city also contemplates to introduce an intelligent • Supply information on bus operations
transportation system, home networking, tele-medicine, • offer bus detour and assignment orders
disaster prevention/monitoring and pollution controlling -Support scientific transport administration
system by 2020. Providing an advanced ubiquitous • Bus operation support & bus operation planning
computing environment is a part of Inchon’s U-city • Improve traffic flow and surface transport
plans, New Songdo U-City as a smart city scheduled planning
for completion in 2014. New Songdo will locate U-city -Operate vehicle enforcement systems-Crackdown on
control centre and provide U-services to the citizens, violations of exclusive median bus lanes and illegal
which includes TOPAZ as shown below for on-call taxis parking
and emergency/rescue services for patients, MelON
We need to appreciate that the manner in which Seoul
mobile music portal service, GXG three-dimensional
has developed it is seen to be believed with respect to tha
mobile game, Cyworld online social network, Moneta
application smart technologies. As mentined the country
mobile credit-card service and satellite digital multimedia is presesently more focusing on developing many smart
broadcasting. cities strongly supported with smart transportation.
8.2.1 TOPIS, the center of the world’s advanced 8.3 Tokiyo, JAPAN
transportation:
8.3.1 Government Policy On ITS
It is Seoul Metropolitan Government’s integrated
The primary goals of Japan ITS are (a) less than 2,500
transportation management ( 9,10,11) center which
traffic accident fatalities by (2018) and Japan will have
is responsible for collection of information from bus
(b) World’s safest road traffic society by（2021) leading
operations, road traffic, transport fare media and cnstantly
to zero fatality.
helps to provide information to city’s Road Traffic
Management System, Bus Operation Management Japan (12) currently has government policies on ITS. They
System, Unmanned Enforcement Systems, Traffic are three types of policies that is short term and long term.
Broadcasting System and Seoul Metropolitan Police There are nine areas of ITS utilization in japan i.e.
Agency exerts comprehensive control and management of i. Advances in Navigation Systems
traffic situations in Seoul as shown in Fig 3. ii. Electronic Toll Collection

TECHNICAL PAPER
iii. Assistance for Safe Driving • Expanding the use of ETC and other ITS
iv. Optimization of Traffic Management technologies
v. Increasing Efficiency in Road Management Middle/Long term:
• Research to advance driving support technologies
vi. Support for Public Transport
by using road structure data etc.
vii. Increasing Efficiency in Commercial
8.3.2) Widely deployed ITS Service in Japan - VICS
viii. Support for Pedestrians
ix. Support for Emergency Operations VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication System)
is a digital data communication system shown in Fig 4
Limitations of Short term is & 5 that punctually demonstrates the updated necessary
• studying a system to achieve automated driving on road traffic information to drivers through car navigation
expressways apparatus.
Fig 4 VICS Centre
• The system provides road traffic information on car • VICS services begin in April 1996
navigation screens
• Provides road traffic information (congestion,
• It is equipped on 35 million automobiles by June accident, etc.) on car navigation screens.
2012
• Cumulative shipments of VICS OBU exceed 37
• Ultimately the reduction in annual Co2 emissions
million units (March 2013)
was by 2.4 million tons in 2009
The driver is constantly fed with real time data like traffic
backup situations or traffic regulations.. Japanese drivers
are getting the advantage of VICS. It is also a principal
solution to lessen problems of traffic congestions.``
Processing and editing of information regarding traffic
congestions, road control and other traffic data is
processed at the VICS Center. All the data is sent in words
and graphics to the navigation devices installed in the
vehicles.
“VICS is a component of the Advanced Mobile Information
System (AIMS) in traffic information supply activities
Fig 5 Display of VICS showing Car Navigation System
carried out by the police, the traffic supervisor.

TECHNICAL PAPER
8.3.3.) ETC - ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION, with different amounts of charge according to the type
japan of vehicle and distance travelled. Fig 6 demonstrates the
An ETC system has to handle complicated toll systems decrease traffic congestion due to toll operation.
(Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan)

Fig 6 Demonstration on Reduction of Traffic Congestion Due to Toll Operation.
9.0 CONCLUSIONS References
Smart transportation is all set to make steady inroads into i. McKinsey Group, India. (2008). India’s urban
the fabric of the society. Smart transportation is an important awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining
and most realistic concept for application to address the economic growth. New Delhi: MGI.
transportation problems if we are committed to address ii. Ministry of Urban Development. (2014). Smart Cities:
the existing city problems in general and transportation in Concept Note. New Delhi: GoI.
particular. This paper touches various aspects for making iii. Yang, J.-H. (2012, June 21). Smart City Smart Strategy.
smart transportation. There’s a growing realization for Seoul.
the need and use of ITS to ensure smart comprehensive iv. Frost & Sullivan. (2013). Award Analysis for Hitachi,
mobility and safety for all. The final objective of city Ltd. Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific Smart City .
planning is to ensure good standard of living though v. ROADS - Statistical Year Book India 2017 | Ministry
economic and social prosperity for all. The development of Statistics and ... http://www.mospi.gov.in/statistical-
of smart transportation would be instrumental to address year-book-india/2017/190
the problem traffic congestion, problem of climate change vi. National Urban Transport Policy 2006
by reducing green house gas and accidents to even zero vii. Phil Blythe , 2013 "Class Notes of Phil Blythe,
level through use of alternative sources of energy like Director, Newcastle University"
solar power and ITS technologies by using ITS driven viii. Oyster card- Wikipedia article
CVHS concept as explained . India is a network of
ix. Yang, Jin-Hyeok. Smart City Smart Strategy. Seoul, 21
cities and towns of rapid growing society constantly June 2012.
considering challenges of urban societies and
x. http://topis.seoul.go.kr/eng/page/about_1.jsp
evolving within. This society is constantly lookong
towards developing for innovative solutions for xi. Ho Lee, Sang and Hoon Han, Jung and Taik Leem,
Yoon and Yigitcanlar, Tan (2008) Towards ubiquitous
leading a smarter life with smarter ways of looking
city : concept, planning, and experiences in the
into problems. Smarter transportation can help us to Republic of Korea.
make life easier faster smoother. The paper highlights
xii. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and
the best practices adopted in cities like London, Seoul
Tourism, Japan 2013, ToshimichiHanai “Intelligent
and Japan which would be instrumental to draw Transport Systems”, Society of Automotive Engineers
lessons for efficient application in Indian cities.1 of Japan

TECHNICAL PAPER
Numerical Slope Stability Analysis of Selected Natural and

Manmade Slopes
Sukumar Saha*
abstruct
In this paper stresses and displacements have been computed for few homogeneous slopes with no foundation layer. The
stresses and displacements have been computed for all these cases with different soil parameters. The computed stresses are
different in all cases. As boundary condition changes the displacements and stresses are differing. F.S.(Factor of Safety) has
been obtained from the stresses obtained by using nonlinear soil model satisfies Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with non-
associated flow rule. Stresses computed in this case are within the Mohr –Coulomb failure criterion. It has been obtained
by keeping the stresses outside the failure surface for a finite time and distributed the load to satisfy F (Failure function) <0
criterion for specified no. of iterations. If a sizeable no. of elements are not satisfying the F (Failure function) < 0 criterion
within a specified no. of iterations, the slope is then assumed to be failed. The program which has been used to obtain these
results was developed at CRRI. For all these slopes considered have only single layer with different soil parameters and the
E-values and Poisson’s ratio are same for all the slopes. Stresses have been obtained for all the Gauss points within the slope.
All these slopes have been discretised with eight nodded quadrilateral elements and each element has four Gauss points.
Finally the F.S. have been computed for all the slopes in two different ways. The strength reduction technique has been used
to get the overall factor of safety of the slope. In other way the F.S has been obtained for an assumed failure surface. The
failure surface has been assumed by joining the points which are nothing but Gauss integration points and there the value of
normal stresses and shear stresses have been obtained through FEM, so it is known. By joining two consecutive points an arc
length for the failure surface will be obtained. Finally by joining all these arc lengths a failure surface will be obtained. The
F.S. for this failure surface will be obtained by using the equation given below.
Where and etc are the normal and shear stresses at two end points of an arc. Σ is summation symbol, c and φ are
strength parameters. By using this formula based on normal and shear stresses computed at all Gauss points, it is possible to
compute the F.S. of any shape and on any region of slope. In this paper it has been compared the values of F.S. obtained from
Bishop’s method of analysis (Limit Equilibrium method) and from FEM analysis using the strength reduction technique.
(Strength Reduction Factor is the F.S. for which the numerical stability fails for a specified no. of iteration or a sudden jump
of maximum displacement) and F.S. obtained on any prescribed failure surface based on normal and shear stresses. Finally
it has been concluded that FEM technique has been emerged as an most generalized technique for the computation of F.S.
of slope.
1. INTRODUCTION: computed by this method within the soil mass. As due to

Conventional methods of slope stability analysis has the failure of slope, the comprising soil displaces from
many drawbacks, like assumption of failure surface, its original place and consequently within a specified no.
non-availability of computation facility in the slope mass of iterations, the slope is then assumed to be failed. The
particularly in the region bounded by slope profile and program which has been used to obtain these results is
failure surface. The stresses and displacements cannot be developed at CRRI. For all these slopes considered have
*
Ex- Senior Principal Scientist, CSIR-CRRI, New Delhi

TECHNICAL PAPER
only single layer with different soil parameters and the equilibrium conditions, they are giving reasonable
E-values it fails, so displacements and stresses are the accurate results.
basic parameters to determine the failure zone and its
1.2 Fe Methods for Slope Stability Analysis and its
severity. In conventional method of stability analyses, the
Advantages:
definition to determine the F.S. is the shear stress developed
in the soil mass due to gravity loading and hydrostatic The advantages of FEM are
pressure developed in the soil mass which decreases the i. No assumptions need to be made in advance about
strength of the soil by minimizing the value of the shear the shape or location of the failure surface. Failure
strength parameters are less than the shear strength of the occurs naturally the zones within the soil mass in
soil which again depends on soil parameters whose values which the shear strength is unable to sustain the
are dependent on hydrostatic pressure developed in the applied shear stress due to mainly gravity i.e., the
soil. So to know the exact idea of failure zone and shear weight of the soil.
stresses developed in the soil, point to point study in the ii. Since there is no concept of slices in the FEM
soil is essential. This type of study has greatest advantage approach, there is no need for assumptions about
that it can show the zone where the slope fails and failure the slice side forces. The FE method preserves
occurs. Moreover by knowing the exact location of failure global equilibrium until failure is reached.
zone it is possible to recommend the corrective measure iii. If realistic soil compressibility data are available,
more effectively and economically. This can be done only the FE solutions will give infromation about
by FEM. There are different soil models for example deformation and stresses accurately.
elastic, elastic plastic and visco-plastic, out of which, we
iv. The FE method is able to monitor progressive
have to choose the correct model depending upon the soil failure and overall shear failure.
characteristic to fit the criterion of failure exactly and if
the soil model has chosen correctly the FEM will give Recently Chattopadhyay et. al. (1998) studied the stress
better result than any other method. analysis of an earthen embankment under initial stress by
FEM. In this paper they have computed the stresses and
The FEM for solving geotechnical problems using displacements in an earthen embankment by considering
nonlinear elasto-plastic soil model has been used widely the soil as elastic material and the effect of initial stresses
by geotechnical engineers. The linear problems such as have been taken into consideration. Griffiths and Lane
computation of settlements and deformations, the steady
(1999) studied the slope stability analysis for slope with
state flow problems due to seepage and the consolidation
all physical alternatives ie., (i) slope with homogeneous
problems with time can be solved by FEM. The use
soil without foundation layer and with foundation layer,
of nonlinearity in geotechnical problems may lead to
(ii) with different soil type layer-wise, (iii) with pore water
complexity and required modeling technique to obtain
pressure developed in the soil, (iv) with submerged slope.
physically viable results. Nonlinear analyses are inherently
For this purpose they used FEM with an idea that failure
iterative in nature and take long time to converge so it
occurs through a zone which is most weak due to its own
requires excessive computational time and power. Stability
weight and other instability factors and in that zone soil is
analysis of slopes with nonlinear FEM approach offers
unable to sustain the stresses developed due to destabilised
real benefits over existing methods.
forces. In another paper Bhattacharya and Ghosh (1999)
1.1 Conventional Methods of Slope Stability used FEM to compute the internal stress distribution based
Analysis: on the theory of elasticity and compared the computed
Difficulty with all the equilibrium methods is that they vales of shear stresses with shear strength mobilised on
are based on the following assumptions and consequently the different position of embankment particularly in the
they are not accurate to determine the factor of safety. The vicinity of the slope. However, the approaches they have
main assumption for these analyses are adopted are based on the assumption that the embankment
and its foundation materials are homogeneous. Besides
i. The soil mass can be divided into slices. these two papers are also included. Sukumar Saha (2009)
ii. Side forces between two slices have not computed has studied landslide through slope stability analysis. In this
but assumed to solve the problem. paper two slopes which we have taken here in this paper
also were studied and remedial measures also suggested.
iii. Failure surfaces are pre-determined.
In another paper (2009) he also studied embankment slope
Moreover all these methods are not satisfying all the by FEM using elasto-plastic model.

TECHNICAL PAPER
2. FEM PROGRAM AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS 2. Displacements at the nodal points.

2.1 Slope Failure Model 3. Stresses at the four Gauss points of each element.
Slope stability analysis has been carried out by modelling 4. F.S. at the points using the formula
the slope forming material (soil) as non-linear elasto-
Shear strength of the soil
plastic material satisfying Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion
F.S =
and this satisfying process has done by redistributing the Shear stress Developed
stresses which are not satisfying failure criterion through
Visco-plastic algorithm. Basically, the stresses which 2.2 Convergence Criterion:
are not satisfying failure function will be converted
The program used in this paper has ability to model more
to equivalent nodal loads and that will be added to the
general geometries. This program is for two-dimensional
gravity loads i.e., the loads which are due to weight of the
plane strain analysis of elastic perfectly plastic soils
soil and the new stiffness equation will be solved to get
with a Mohr-coulomb failure criterion utilizing eight
the displacement and strains. Stresses will be computed
node quadrilateral elements with four Gauss integration
again. Then it will be again tested that whether it satisfies
points. The soil has assumed initially as isotropic and
the failure function at the all gauss points or not. If this
computes the stresses at each gauss integration point of
process is unable to converge to a specified no. of iterations,
each element. Then the failure criterion has been tested
then the system will not converge and simultaneously
for each Gauss point, if the value of F i.e. the Mohr-
the slope will fail at this stage. The numerical instability
Coulomb failure function is less than zero at any Gauss
and failure of slope will occur simultaneously. At this
point, then it is treated as elastic. If F is greater or equal
stage the displacement of the slope will be quite large in
to zero, then the soil is treated as yielding and the strain
comparison with the previous no. of iteration. When the
of the soil at this stage is visco-plastic. In this model the
model will not converge for a specified no. of iterations,
material or soil allowed to remain in outside of the failure
the numerically convergence has not been achieved. So,
surface for a finite period. This has been done by keeping
the slope has been failed and the F.S. is that quantity by
it outside the failure surface for a finite period and then
which the soil parameters have been reduced. At that
by redistribution of load throughout the element to satisfy
stage the displacement has been increased drastically in
the failure criterion for a specified no. of iteration. And up
comparison with the previous step of iteration. The slope
to that specified no. of iterations if it satisfies the relation
has been modeled by satisfying the soil as elasto- Visco-
F < 0 then it is converging otherwise not. Convergence
Plastic material with Mohr- Coulomb failure criterion and
has been obtained by iteration with redistributing the
non-associated flow rule. The input and output parameters
loads on the system. The reduction factor for the strength
are given below.
parameters is taken as the value of F.S. We will start from
INPUT FOR SLOPE FAILURE MODEL a lower value and it will be increased to get the actual F.S.
When the reduced strength parameters will be unable to
1. Geometry of the slope converge the Mohr Coulomb failure criterion for specified
2. Soil parameters no. of iteration, the reduction factor will be taken as the
a. Cohesion of soil – c (kN/m2) F.S. of the slope.
b. Soil Friction – φ (degree) 3. Numerical Problem and its

solution:
c. Density of Soil- γ (kN/m3)
A numerical study has been carried out for the stresses
d. Modulus of Elasticity of Soil – E (kN/m2)
developed in a slope due to gravity in the soil layer beneath
e. Poisson’s ratio- ν the slope. For this, three slopes have been considered. (i)
f. Dilation Angle – (degree)ψ A model slope with slope angle = 26.570, soil parameters
c = 1kN/m2 , ϕ = 200 , ψ = 0, γ = 20 kN/m3 , E = 1×105 kN/
3. Boundary Condition
m2 , ν = 0.3 has been considered as by Smith and Griffith
4. F.S. to be taken as trial values (1988) . The height of slope is 1m. (ii) Slope of Buj slope
5. The geometry of piezometric line which experienced earthquake in Jan, 2006. The height
of the slope=7.5 m and slope length =15.88 m. The slope
OUTPUT FOR SLOPE FAILURE MODEL forming material has parameters c =1kN/m2, ϕ = 200, ψ =
1. F.S. of the whole slope 0, γ = 20 kN/m3 , E = 1×105 kN/m2 , ν = 0.3. (iii) Slope

TECHNICAL PAPER
at NH-39 with height of slope = 11 m and slope length = Table 1 : Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the
26.40m with soil parameters c =0 kN/m2 , ϕ = 280 , ψ = Slope of Case 1 for the Failure Surface Shown in fig.3
0, γ = 20 kN/m3 , E = 1×105 kN/m2 , ν = 0.3. The stresses Points σy (kN/m2) τxy(kN/m2) F.S.
developed within the slope have been obtained at different
points in all the cases and they have been tabulated in x(m) y(m)
different tables shown below. The slope has been divided 1.94 -0.379 -3.49 0.304 3.70
into 200 elements. 2.07 -0.4785 -1.05 0.59 2.35
3.1 Case-I : The slope has been considered as a slope 2.24 -0.6211 -1.91 0.94 1.80
of height 1 m and the length of the slope surface = 2.236 2.40 -0.7211 -2.66 1.21 1.62
m. The soil parameters are c = 1 kN/m2, Φ = 200, γ = 2.69 -0.8788 -1.31 1.04 1.42
20 kN/m3. It is a single layer slope. The slope has been
2.86 -0.921 -1.22 1.04 1.38
analyzed using Bishop’s method. The Factor of safety has
been obtained and it has given below with failure surface. 3.12 -0.9788 -2.68 0.698 1.38
The same slope has been discretized with eight nodded From FEM analysis the stresses and F.S. obtained point
quadrilateral elements. wise and given in the table above. These points have been
plotted as shown in the figure below. By joining these
points a failure surface has been assumed and consequently
F.S. has been obtained using the formula
Shear strength
F.S. =
Shear stress
Fig. 1 Failure Surface and F.S. for Model Slope

(200 elements, 661 nodes )
In this process strength reduction factor has been taken Fig. 3 The Failure surface and the F.S. has shown above for
as the F.S. after which the maximum displacement of the data tabulated in table 1
the slope taking a jump for strength reduction factor. Table -2 : Stresses and corresponding F.S. for the
Stresses has been obtained for four Gauss’s point within Slope of Case 1 of Failure Surface Shown in fig.4
the element and on the basis of that stresses the F.S. has
been obtained for the specified failure surface as shown in Points σy(kN/m2) τxy(kN/m2) F.S.
the figure given below. The tables are given below for the x (m) y(m)
specified failure surface. 2.33 -0.58 -0.533 0.677 1.57
2.35 -0.62 -1.36 0.9175 1.37
2.403 -0.68 -2.086 1.102 1.38
2.41 -0.72 -2.66 1.21 1.42
2.51 -0.78 -3.66 1.43 1.66
2.59 -0.82 -3.26 1.31 1.63
2.693 -0.88 -1.32 1.04 1.623
2.86 -0.92 -1.22 1.045 1.595
2.92 -0.92 -2.37 1.353 1.631
Fig. 2 Displacement Versus F.S. for Model Slope Obtained
from FEM Analysis 3.12 -0.98 .2677 0.698 1.763

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Table -3 : Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the

slope of case 2 of failure surface shown in fig.7
Points σy(kN/m2) τxy(kN/m2) F.S.
x(m) y(m)
9.59 -0.91 -1.968 1.264 8.48
10.24 -2.09 -19.36 3.48 4.90
10.56 -3.16 -37.11 5.63 4.17
13.82 -5.09 -42.53 11.21 2.27
Fig. 4 Failure Surface and the F.S. for the Data 15.19 -5.41 -35.40 10.94 2.09
Tabulated in table 2 18.73 -6.16 -13.18 9.84 1.50
3.2 Case–II Slope at Buj : Fig.5 shows the failure 20.08 -6.6 -11.95 9.16 1.57
surfaces and the corresponding F.S. obtained using
Bishop’s simplified method.

Fig 7 Failure surface and the F.S. for the data tabulated in
table 3
Table -4 : Stresses and corresponding F.S. for the
Fig. 5 Failure Surfaces and the Corresponding F.S. for Buj Slope slope of case 2 of failure surface shown in fig.8
Points σy(kN/m2) τxy(kN/m2) F.S.
x (m) y(m)
12.36 -2.41 -2.70 2.44 4.50

12.50 -2.84 -10.25 3.86 3.56
13.39 -3.59 -16.36 5.82 2.74
13.93 --3.90 -17.31 6.50 2.51
14.66 -4.34 -18.60 7.15 2.345
15.20 -4.65 -19.38 7.99 2.135
16.44 -5.09 -16.45 8.79 1.82
Fig. 6 Maximum displacement for the corresponding Strength 17.90 -5.41 -6.40 7.66 1.61
Reduction Factor (F.S)

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(200 elements, 661 nodes ) (200 elements, 661 nodes )

Fig 8 Failure surface and the F.S for the data tabulated in table 4 Fig. 10 Failure Surface and the F.S. for the Data Tabulated in Table 5
3.3 CASE –III Slope at NH-39
Fig. 11 Failure Circles for Slope NH-39

Fig. 9 Maximum Displacement for the Corresponding Strength
Reduction Factor (F.S) Table : 6 Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the
Slope of Case III of Failure Surface Shown in fig.12
Table : 5 Stresses and Corresponding F.S. for the
Slope of Case III of Failure Surface Shown in fig. 10 Points σy(kN/m2) τxy(kN/m2) F.S.
Points σy(kN/m2) τxy(kN/m2) F.S. x (m) y(m)
x (m) y(m) 17.13 -2.43 -2.46 0.869 1.51

17.59 -3.06 -11.07 4.05 1.454
21.87 -4.63 -2.60 1.063 4.50
17.98 -3.53 -17.82 5.31 1.78
23.02 -5.73 -16.25 5.42 3.56
19.05 -4.63 -30.21 6.22 2.58
25.26 -6.83 -17.70 6.27 2.74
20.22 -5.27 -33.18 7.22 2.44
27.50 -7.93 -19.61 6.88 2.51
22.31 -5.73 -23.92 7.65 1.66
29.75 -9.03 -21.29 6.96 2.345 24.31 -6.37 -17.04 5.89 1.54
31.99 -10.13 -23.21 7.99 2.135 25.84 -6.83 -11.98 4.193 1.52
35.11 -10.77 -4.77 8.79 1.82 26.62 -6.83 -3.18 1.314 1.29

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reduction factor beyond which displacement has a jump

is taken as F.S. for the respective slope. Fig. 1 shows the
failure surfaces and F.S. for model slope obtained through
Bishop’s simplified method. Similarly fig.5 and 11 are
showing the similar results for Buj slope and NH39 slope
respectively.
4. CONCLUSION:
From the results obtained in this paper from the three
different slopes as mentioned, it has been observed that the
FEM method is more capable for the derivation of F.S. of
a slope in any region and it is also capable of determining
the displacements at any points within the slope and by
(200 elements, 661 nodes ) virtue of that it is also possible to identify the zone of
Fig. 12 Failure Surface and the F.S. for the Data Tabulated in most displaced portion which is the zone of failure for that
Table 6 slope, although it has not been shown in this paper.
Table : 7 Results of F.S. of Three Slopes Defined above 5. REFERENCES :
Slope Min. F.S. F.S. (FEM) F.S. (FEM) 1. Chattopadhyay, A., Saha, S., Chattopadhyay,
Name (Bishop) A.,“Analysis of an Earthen embankment under
(Strength (Stress
initial stress by Finite Element Method” Jl. of Int.
Reduction method)
Factor) Engineers (India) ( Civil Engg. Division), Vol.79,
Dec., 1998, pp.130-135.
Model 1.425 1.4 1.43
Slope 2. Bhattacharya, G., Ghosh, S., “Slope Stability
Buj 0.87 1.0 0.924 Analysis Based on computed stress “Jl. Of Int.
Slope Engineers (India) (Civil Engg. Division) Vol. 80,
NH39 1.22 1.1 1.179 May, 1999, pp.-27-29.
Slope
3. Griffiths, D. V. and Lane, P. A. , “Slope Stability
3.4 Analysis of Results of all three cases: Analysis by Finite Elements” Geotechnique 49,
Finally a comparative table has been prepared for all the No. 3. , 1999, pp. 387 -403.
three slopes mentioned above. 4. Smith, I. M. and Griffiths, D. V., (1988) -
From the table. 7 it is clear that F.S. in all these methods Programming the finite element method 2nd Ed.
are matching and this proves the authenticity of FEM. In John Wiley & Sons - Chichester .
case of ‘model slope’, the F.S. (stress method) for model
5. Saha Sukumar, “Control of Landslide Hazards
slope is little higher than other values of F.S. as the failure
through Slope stability analysis-case studies” –
circle chosen is different from the failure circle for the
Indian Highways, December,2009, pp. 23-31.
minimum F.S. obtained by Limit Equilibrium method
(Bishop’s simplified method) which has been shown in fig. 6. Saha Sukumar, “Analysis of Embankment slope
1. From the figures (fig.3 and 4 for model slope, fig.7 and from failure point of view using stress behavior
8 for Buj slope, fig. 10 and 12 for NH39 slope ) it has been obtained from finite element method using
observed that F.S. can be obtained for any shape of failure elasto-plastic model” – Highway Research Journal,
surface through FEM. In fig 2, fig. 6 and 9, the strength Vol 2, No.1 January-June,2009, pp.107-117.

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QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT – ROAD PROJECT PREPARATION

PERSPECTIVE
Subir Kumar Podder*

abstruct
The paper is aimed at outlining an approach for Quantitative Risk Assessment employing stochastic analysis (with a triangular
distribution) so as to determine the combined influence of the dictating parameters on probabilities. It is appreciated that in the
perspective of Road Transport Development Projects, and more specifically the Economic Analysis carried out in Feasibility
Studies for Road Improvement and Rehabilitation Projects, such dictating parameters are Traffic and Project Cost. Besides
construction cost, it is to be appreciated that the impacts of traffic sensitivity, manifested in level of service and congestion,
impact the economics of a road project. Often these impacts are analysed separately. This paper aims at an approach for
determining the impact (on Traditional Economic Analysis Instruments like EIRR, NPV) under a combined influence of
the aforesaid two parameters. Such analysis requires treading a step beyond that what is required when probabilities are
ascertained separately, and is the focus of this paper.
1. Introduction most likely and maximum limits. The most likely values
are those assumed for the base case situation, whilst
Quantitative Risk Analysis– It provides a means of
the lower and upper limits that are to be applied for risk
estimating the probability that the project NPV will fall
analysis in road feasibility studies are expressed in terms
below zero, or that the project EIRR will fall below the
of percentage (%) of the base-case1 values2.
opportunity cost of capital.
Triangular Probability Distribution - The triangular
More explicitly, the quantitative risk analysis involves
distribution is typically used as a subjective description of a
randomly selecting values for the variables from the
population for which there is only limited sample data, and
probability distribution determined; combining these
especially in cases where the relationship between variables
values with all base case values to give an EIRR (or
is known but data is scarce. It is based on knowledge of the
NPV) result; and repeating such a calculation a large
maximum and minimum and an “Inspired guess” as to the
number of times to provide a large number of EIRR (or modal value. [For this reason the triangular distribution
NPV) estimates. These estimates are then summarized has been called a “lack of knowledge” distribution]. The
in a distribution, key features of which is the proportion triangular distribution is often used in business decision
of EIRR values that fall below (i) the opportunity cost making3, particularly in simulations. Generally, when not
of capital (say 12 per cent), (ii) the most likely forecast much data is known about the distribution of an outcome,
values (i.e. the value which the analysis actually yielded). (say, only its smallest and largest values are known), it is
The objective is to estimate the probability that the project possible to use the uniform distribution. But if the most
might turn out to be unacceptable. likely outcome is also known, then the outcome can be
Traditionally, the principle of risk analysis is based on simulated by a triangular distribution4. In probability
random simulations carried out assuming a triangular theory and statistics, the triangular distribution is a
probability distribution with pre-determined minimum, continuous probability distribution with lower limit a,
1. The base-case refers to Estimated Project Cost and Estimated Traffic. Risks triggered by changes from these estimates, measured in
terms of impacts on the economic parameters, are essentially what that the quantitative risk assessment is aimed at.
2. The adopted values i.e. % of base-case values are generally those that the Terms of Reference for a particular project specify. However,
generally they are the same that are accounted for Sensitivity Analysis performed under an Economic Analysis.
3. The triangular distribution, along with the Beta distribution, is also widely used in project management (as an input into PERT and
hence critical path method (CPM)) to model events which take place within an interval defined by a minimum and maximum value.
4. Source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
*
Associate Director, LEA Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd, New Delhi, India

TECHNICAL PAPER
upper limit b and mode c, where a < b and a <= c <= b.

UPPER LIMIT:
The probability density function (pdf) is given by:
1) Construction Cost – 90 % of the Base Case
(i.e. the Favoured Alternative)
2) Traffic Growth – 110% of the Base Case
LOWER LIMIT:
1) Construction Cost – 120 % of the Base Case
..................(1) (i.e. the Favoured Alternative)
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) is given by: 2) Traffic Growth – 75% of the Base Case
2. The CONVENTIONAL PRACTICE
With the boundary conditions in place, as stated
immediately above, the stochastic analysis, as often
practiced, essentially involves the following steps:
• Establishing the probability distribution
..................(1A) function (pdf), assuming a triangular probability
There are generally no fixed criteria for using such a result distribution, for changes in EIRR triggered by
in ascertaining the acceptability of the Project Viability. COST
However, high risk probabilities may be associated with • Making Random Simulations to arrive at a large
projects that have a high expected NPV (or EIRR)5. number of estimates (of EIRR)
Pertinence to Road Development Projects - Risk • Establishing the cumulative distribution function
analysis, carried out under Feasibility Studies, for road (cdf) [it essentially summarises the estimates]
transport development projects is concerned with the • Interpreting the results which essentially is
probability or likelihood of the following: determining the proportion of EIRR values that fall
• Construction costs increasing/ decreasing by a below (i) the opportunity cost of capital (say 12 per
certain percentage than that for the base-case; & cent), (ii) the most likely forecast values (i.e. the
• Traffic growth occurring at a lower/higher rate than value which the analysis actually yielded), (iii) the
that assumed in the base case situation. central estimates (say the mean value).
Such probabilities get determined employing the principles The analysis is then repeated for changes in EIRR as
of random simulations assuming a triangular probability triggered by changes to TRAFFIC.
distribution.
The aforesaid steps can be performed using a MS EXCEL
Continuing from above, intrinsic to the triangular spreadsheet analysis7 that employs in-built functions to
probability distribution are the boundary conditions generate random functions and then the One Way Data
(upper and lower limits6, as well as the mode value i.e. the Table to trigger the simulations required.
most likely value). Very often the prescribed values for the
upper and lower limits are as follows:
5. Source: Page 157, Appendix 21, Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects, Economic and Development Resource Center, the
Asian Development Bank, February 1997.
6. It is imperative that the (i) Upper Limits correspond to the scenario where the %-change to the variables lend a higher EIRR (or NPV);
and (ii) Lower Limits correspond to the scenario where the %-change to the variables lend a lower EIRR (or NPV), when compared to the
EIRR (or NPV) of the Favoured Alternative (the most likely value i.e. that the analysis yields with the Base Case values).
7. The spreadsheet analysis generally uses the uniform random number function [RAND] in Excel to simulate various discrete or continuous
outcomes, without the use of add-ins such as @RISK or Crystal Ball, both of which are programs that are often recommended for
performing stochastic analysis [For instance, the “Procedural Guide to Economic Road Feasibility Studies, MOWHC, Government of
Uganda, (March 2006)”]. By the use of lookup tables, the simulation repeats itself.

TECHNICAL PAPER
3. BASIC STOCHASTIC PRINCIPLES FOR • For a continuous r.v. (X, Y), the joint probability
BIVARIATE RANDOM VARIABLES – AN density function f(x,y) is defined as
INTRODUCTION 1) f(x,y) > = 0
3.1 Basic principles 2)
Basic principles on which this paper banks upon are • The joint pdf, f(x,y) is not a probability
presented briefly next.
Joint cdf of (X,Y):
pdf» Probability Density Function f(x)
F(x, y) = P [ X<= x, Y < = y ]
[pdf is not a probability, it can have value >1.0]
Any function can be a pdf if the following are satisfied:
f(x) ≥ 0 and 3.3 Marginal Density Functions
The marginal density functions of bi-variate continuous
random variables relate essentially to probability of a
particular variable irrespective of the value that the other
Also, F(x) = P[X ≤ x] = random variable takesThe marginal density functions, g(x)
Here, cdf » Cumulative Distribution Function F(x). and h(y), of X & Y respectively are defined as follows:
Extracts8 are used here for pertinent explanations.
These are in fact derived from the joint pdf f(x,y), as

follows:
Further,
From the definitions of pdf’s it is thus seen that g(x) is in
P[x ≥ a] = 1 - P[X ≤ a]
fact the original pdf of the r.v. (random variable)X. Thus,
This is illustrated below.
Similarly for the r.v. (random variable) Y

3.4 Conditional Distribution
The conditional distribution of X given Y=y is defined
as:
3.2 Bi-Variate Distributions g (x / y) = f (x, y) / h (y), h (y) > 0
Continuing from the above, for a two-dimensional random The conditional distribution of Y given X=x is defined
variable (X,Y), where both X and Y are continuous random as:
variables, the Bi-variate Distributions are as follows: h (y / x) = f (x, y) / g (x), g (x) > 0
Joint pdf of (X,Y): While the conditional pdfs satisfy all conditions for a pdf,
8. Source: Extracts from NPTEL, Lecture No. # 02, Bivariate Distributions, Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, Department of
Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.

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the Cumulative Conditional Distributions are:
With the aforesaid explanations for the fundamentals of a

bivariate distribution (for continuous random variables),
the following requirement for stochastic independence
can be concluded upon.
3.5 Independent Random Variables
4. TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION - BASICS
When the two random variables are independent, we
have 4.1 PERTINENT PROPERTIES
g(x/y) = g(x), and h(y/x) = h(y) Continuing with the discussions on triangular distribution,
in Section-1 above, relevant properties are as follows.
i.e the conditional pdf is equal to the marginal pdf
Fundamental properties 9-10.
Therefore,
g (x / y) = f (x, y) / h (y)
g (x) = f (x, y) / h (y)
So, f (x, y) = g (x) .h (y)
So it is concluded that for X and Y to be stochastically
independent,
f(x,y) = g(x) h(y)
The following example illustrates this (taken from Ref. 2).
9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution
10. These properties find specific relevance to parameter estimation using Method of Moments
11. http://www.asianscientist.com/books/wp-content/uploads/ 2013/06/5720_chap1.pdf

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iii. Method of Maximum Likelihood (ML) – Is based

on maximising a likelihood function, and is preferred
over Method of Moments. A brief 13 follows:
4.2 Generating Random Variates

Carrying out random simulations being basic requirements,
as mentioned in Section-2 above, the following expressions
are used in generating11 the random variates for a
triangular distribution.
However triangular distribution poses specific problems
in the use of ML for parameter estimation. While there are
different literature14,15,16 available on this and the aspects
that can be adopted for addressing such difficulties, the one
that this paper has used is that given in Reference-12,17.
Extending that mentioned in (17), Reference 12 presents
a simplified version that requires solving numerically a
4.3 Parameter Estimation single equation given next:
While the aforesaid equation allows generating random
variates which follow a triangular distribution, the next
step is estimating parameters defining the distribution
which essentially are the values for a, b and c in eqn. (1).
The methods used for Parameter Estimation are:
............... (3)
i. Method of Matching Points – Is a simple but
Approximate Method, hence may be used for first While details are presented in Reference-12, the unique
approximations. solution to Eqn. (3) is the intersection of the function
ii. Method of Moments (MoM)12 – In this method g(q) with the positive diagonal of the unit square [Shown
equating the first ‘m’-moments of the population subsequently in Section 8.1 of this paper].
to the sample estimates of the first ‘m’-moments 5. FRAMING OF THE PROBLEM
results in ‘m’ equations to solve for ‘m’-unknown
Continuing with the bivariate probability discussed above
parameters.
12. First Moment – Mean, Second Moment – Variance, Third Moment – Skewness, Fourth Moment – Kurtosis etc. It is to be appreciated
that the properties mentioned in Section 4.1 finds relevance owing to their requirements for Parameter Estimation using the Method of
Moments.
13. For details references can be made to: NPTEL, Lecture No. # 07, Parameter Estimation, Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar,
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
14. Joo, Y. and Casella, G. (2001), Predictive distributions in risk analysis and estimation for the triangular distribution, Envoronmetrics,
12: 647-658, doi: 10.1002/env.489: This mentions that estimation using quantile least squares is preferable to ML for ‘triangular
distribution’.
15. Source: Page 28, Reference12: The package @RISKS allows definition of a triangular distribution by specifying a lower quantile ap, a
most likely value m and an upper quantile br , such that a<ap<= m<= br<b. This avoids having to specify the lower and upper extremes a
and b that by definition have a zero likelihood of occurrence. The software @RISKS does not provide details, however, regarding how the
bounds a and b are calculated given values for ap, m and br. [Note: m is same as c, in Eqn (1,2)]
16. Source: Page 28, Reference12: Keefer and Bodily (1983) formulated this problem in terms of two quadratic equations from which the
unknowns a and b had to be solved numerically for the values p=0.05 and r=0.95.
17. Can be accessed from site : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution.

TECHNICAL PAPER
(in Section-3), in the perspective of the Quantitative Risk

Analysis pertinent to Road Infrastructure Development
Projects described at the onset (in Section 1), let us
consider two variables C and T influence of which get
manifested in the variable E18 .
The following (∆C and ∆T) are differences w.r.t. base
values for C and T respectively, and the corresponding ∆E
values (∆EC and ∆ET) resulting from changes to C/T.
∆C ∆EC ∆T ∆ET
-12 2.2 -13 -1.4
-8 1.4 -10 -0.8
-4 0.5 -8 -0.4
0 0 0 0
4 -1.1 3 0.6
8 -1.9 4 1
....................(4)
12 -2.2 18 2
The following describes the ‘parameter estimation’ in
The following are graphical representations of the aforesaid establishing the pdf for ∆ET19 and ∆EC in line with eqn. (3)
monotonously decreasing / increasing functions. described in Section 4.3 earlier.
In line with the conventional practice, mentioned in

Section-2 earlier, the probability distribution functions
(pdf) for changes in E (∆E) are determined separately
next, as triggered by changes in C (∆C) and changes in T
(∆T) respectively. A triangular distribution gets assumed,
as we derive the pdfs, given next, using eqn. (1).
18. While C and T are typically COST and TRAFFIC, E is EIRR (or NPV) as described in Section-1 above.
19. Goal Seek Function in MS-Excel has been used to facilitate the trial and error involved [in the assumption of ‘q’].
20. For road infrastructure development projects this is 12 per cent, the cut-off EIRR which is generally considered as the opportunity cost of
capital).

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Pursuant to the traditional practice, simulations (to arrive

at a large number of estimates for either of the cases,
EC and ET) can be performed using Eqn (2). Using such
estimates proportions of EC and ET values that fall below
a threshold20 or other central estimates (say mean) can be
derived (separately for impacts of C and T). However this
....................(7)
paper is aimed at determining the combined influence of
the variables C and T on E. So the cumulative distribution function (cdf) is:
6. THE PROPOSED APPROACH - BASICS
Continuing from discussions in Section-3.3 earlier,
marginal density functions of bi-variate continuous
random variables relate essentially to probability of a
particular variable irrespective of the value that the other
random variable takes.
Now in regard to estimating Economic Internal Rate of
Return (EIRR) for Road Infrastructure Development
Projects, Project Cost and Traffic Growth are independent ....................(8)
entities. As described at the onset, in Section-1, This, together with conventional simulations using triangular
prescribed boundary conditions are used in the economic distribution, forms the basis for the proposed approach. The
analysis (traditionally such analysis entails Sensitivity details are presented in the subsequent section.
Analysis21and Quantitative Risk Analysis). Accordingly
therefore the following analysis assumes that impact of 7. THE PROPOSED APPROACh –FORMULATION
∆C and ∆T on ∆E being not dependent, the distributions22 The proposed approach is based on mathematical
for ΕC and ΕT can be construed as marginal distributions. computation for the RHS of eqn.-8, equated to probability
Using the values for supports derived through a triangular –computations for the LHS of eqn.-8.
pdf, the marginal density functions(are essentially those
given under eqn. 4)g(∆EC) and g(∆ET) are:23 7.1 Mathematical Computations
The RHS of eqn.-8 is essentially
....................(9)
Considering x to represent ∆Ec, then the limits are either
-2.75 & ∆Ec OR 0 &∆Ec, depending on value of ∆Ec.
Considering y to represent ∆ET, then the limits are either
-1.79 & ∆ET OR 0 & ∆ET, depending on value of ∆ET.
....................(5) For example,
Now from the conditionality for stochastic independence, Say for certain ∆Ec and ∆ET, the calculations using Eqn
discussed in Section-3.5 earlier, we have (9) yields P [∆E] =0.699 ~ 0.7.
f(∆E) = g(∆EC) x g(∆ET) .............(6)
7.2 Probability Computations
Therefore the pdf for ∆E As mentioned above, the LHS of eqn.-8 addresses using
21. It is appreciated that unlike traditionally performed Quantitative Risk Analysis, traditionally Sensitivity Analysis considers a worst scenario
of increased Project Cost together with reduced Traffic. Hence the relevance of this paper finds credence.
22. Given in Section-5
23. Nomenclatures used are in accordance with those given in Section-3 of this paper
24. “Joint cdf” in Section 3.2 may be referred

TECHNICAL PAPER
the principles of probability, as detailed next. Table 1 3 Parameter Estimates for DE

Step 1: Using the estimated parameters a,b,c as given in
Table 1-1 , random simulations were carried out for ∆Ec.
For such simulation, Eqn.-2 and the uniform random
number function RAND( ) in MS Excel were used.
Step 2: Similar simulations are then carried out for ∆ET.
Steps 3: Pursuant to stochastic independency, on which
the approach is based, multiplying the above, as shown
below, yield simulations for ∆E.
Table 1 2 Simulated Data for ∆E
As may be seen the supports that get derived from

‘parameter estimation’ using26 the Method of Maximum
Likelihood (ML) [Eqn.-3] are:
a= -0.250, c = 0, b = 0.258
Steps 5: With the aforesaid supports, and using Eqn.-1
and Eq.-1A pdf and cdf respectively was determined for
∆E. The following graphs show this.
Steps 4: A triangular distribution, with mode( =c )25 = 0 is

applied to the simulated data in Table 1-2.
25. Note: c is same as m that Eqn (3) mentions

26. The initial estimates ap and br, [say a =ap = -0.2 and b = br = 0.21 shown in the Table 1-3] can be derived either using “Method of Matching
Points” or “Method of Moment”, described in Section 4.3 earlier.
27. The monotonously decreasing / increasing functions given in the graphs in Section-5

TECHNICAL PAPER
The following table gives the probabilities for ∆E. that it has been established analytically that “the unique
Equation-1A provides P values for corresponding X solution to Eqn. (3) is the intersection of the function g(q)
(=∆E). with the positive diagonal of the unit square.” While the
following graph presents this, the subsequent table shows
Table 1- 4 Probabilities for ∆E with Triangular
the derivations for p=0.02 (i.e. r=0.08).
Distribution
For example,
As may be seen from the shaded row in Table 1-4, the

probability P[∆E<=0.06] = 0.702 ~ 0.7.
7.3 Inference
a. Inferring from Section 7.1 and Section 7.2, equating
the separate computations for RHS and LHS of
Equation (8), does yield useful information on the
combined influence of ∆Ec and ∆ET on ∆E.
b. Now that there exist definite relations,
∆C with ∆Ec and ∆T with ∆ET,
as shown in Section 527 earlier, inference (a) above can
also be interpreted as “the combined influence of ∆C and
∆Ton ∆E can be arrived at”.
Given that for each value of p there is a unique q, it is
8. RELEVANT DISCUSSIONS imperative that different sets of parameters28 a and b exist.
The following figure shows the different sets (of a and b)
8.1 Unique Solutions For Ml Method for the particular sample considered in this paper.
This section is aimed at the unique solution of Eqn. (3)
mentioned under Section 4.3 earlier. In this regard it is
recalled, as mentioned under Footnote-16, for solutions to
the estimates of parameters for the ML method “Keefer
and Bodily (1983) formulated this problem in terms of two
quadratic equations from which the unknowns a and b had
to be solved numerically for the values p=0.05 (i.e. r = 1-p
=0.95).”Also recalled, Section 4.3 was concluded stating
28. The parameter c (or m, see note-28) however remains same. For the case under consideration, a and b being departures from the most
likely estimate (mode) c is ‘0’.
29. For details references can be made to: NPTEL, Lecture No. # 28, Goodness of Fit, Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, Department
of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
30. For details the following may also be referred to: Statistical Methods in Hydrology, Charles T. Haan, The IOWA State University press,
1977.

TECHNICAL PAPER
8.2 Goodness of Fit 4. The following is a graphical representation.

As may be seen from Step-4, Section 7.2, a triangular
distribution is applied to the simulated ∆E data.
It is appreciated that:
1. The sample size, obtained through simulations,
considered herein is less (just 20). A larger sample
is however to be considered in practice, to yield
more reliable estimates.
2. Also, other distributions might be a better fit. While
the aspect of goodness of fit29-30, is not attended to
in this paper, the following is a frequency analysis 5. Implications of “Goodness of Fit”, using the
to present some idea on the level of appropriateness aforesaid results, can be perceived from the
in adopting the triangular distribution for the set of
following:
data considered.
Triangular distribution:
P[∆E<= 0.060]=0.7(i.e. 70%)
Normal distribution:
P[∆E<= 0.104]=0.7(i.e. 70%)
P[∆E<=0.060] = 0.324(i.e. 32%)
9. SUMMARY
While it is a practice for sensitivity analysis31 to ascertain
the worst scenario involving the negative effects of all
the deciding parameters, but this is not always practiced
for Quantitative Risk Analysis in Road Infrastructure
Table 1-4, presented in Section 7.2, provides probabilities Development Projects.
corresponding to the sample population shown in the
Frequency Table above. Traffic is used as a surrogate for economic benefits as
this has a direct bearing on the economic cost of any
3. Continuing from above, probabilities with a Normal
Distribution corresponding to the same set follows. investment. However, it is also to be appreciated that
The differences are obvious when seen against cost is also dependent on non-traffic aspects, and so it
those for triangular distribution given in Table 1-4. is a practice that their impacts on the project-economics
(measured in terms of EIRR) are evaluated separately.
This paper attempts to present a means for ascertaining
probabilities of their combined impacts. This requires
efforts from highway engineering professionals to tread
steps beyond that which is required when the economic-
impacts are determined separately. Further, this allows
for opportunities to reallocate resources at a future date
(subsequent to an Economic Analysis) in the event
changes are frequented for a particular parameter (say,32
a decrease in traffic growth rate, which thus necessitates
reduction to the project cost so as to have the EIRR within
an acceptable limit). Further, the approach can also be
adopted for financial analysis of private sector projects,
where too traffic is used as a surrogate entity.
31. Footnote 22 may be referred to

32. Section 7.3 elaborates this with an example

TECHNICAL PAPER
However the paper restricts itself to bi-variate continuous Economic and Development Resource Center, the Asian
random variables. Given that traffic and project-cost Development Bank, February 1997
are the primary elements which get considered in an 2. NPTEL, Lectures on Stochastic Hydrology, Prof. P. P.
economic analysis, a bi-variate distribution however
Mujumdar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian
finds relevance. Applicable fundamentals of probability
Institute of Science, Bangalore
/ stochastic analysis are revisited for working engineers
to have a ready appreciation. It is appreciated that the 3. Procedural Guide to Economic Road Feasibility Studies,
same approach may even be extended to other domains of MOWHC, Government of Uganda, (March 2006)
engineering by highway engineers. 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution
REFERNCES: 5. http://www.asianscientist.com/books/wp-content/
1. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects, uploads/ 2013/06/5720_chap1.pdf
New/Revised Publications of IRC – NEW ARRIVALS

The IRC has brought out the following 15 New/Revised Publications. These prestigious publications will be quite
useful to the Highway Professionals.
S. No. Title of the Document Price Packing &

Postage
1 IRC:37-2018 “Guidelines for Design of Flexible Pavement” (Fourth Revision) 1400.00 40.00
2 IRC:57-2018 Recommended Practice for Sealing of Joints in Concrete Pavements 300.00 20.00
(Second Revision)
3 IRC:86-2018 Geometric Design Standards for Urban Roads and Streets (First 600.00 30.00
Revision)
4 IRC:87-2018 Guidelines for Formwork, Falsework and Temporary Structures for 800.00 40.00
Road Bridges (Second Revision)
5 IRC-127-2018 Guidelines on Skill Development of Workmen in Road Sector 800.00 40.00
6 IRC:SP:36-2018 Guidelines for IRC Standards (First Revision) 100.00 20.00
7 IRC:SP:54-2018 Project Preparation Manual for Bridges (First Revision) 500.00 30.00
8 IRC:SP:63-2018 Guidelines for the Use of Interlocking Concrete Block Pavement 500.00 30.00
(First Revision)
9 IRC:SP:73-2018 “Manual of Specifications and Standards for Two Laning of 1500.00 40.00
Highways with Paved Shoulder” (Second Revision)
10 IRC:SP:83-2018 Guidelines for Maintenance, Repairs & Rehabilitation of Cement 1000.00 60.00
Concrete Pavements (First Revision)
11 IRC:SP:117-2018 Manual on Universal Accessibility for Urban Roads and Streets 900.00 40.00
12 IRC:SP:119-2018 “Manual of Planting and Landscaping of Urban Roads” 1200.00 40.00
13 IRC:SP:120-2018 “Explanatory Handbook to IRC:22-2015 “Standard 1000.00 40.00
Specifications and Code of Practice for Road Bridges, Section VI-Composite
Construction”
14 IRC:SP:121-2018 Guidelines for Use of Iron, Steel and Copper Slag in 600.00 30.00
Construction of Rural Roads
15 IRC- Pocket Book for Road Construction Equipment 1200.00 50.00
Copies of these publications can be obtained from IRC Office against cash payment. For more details please contact
+ 91 11 2338 7759 and E-mail: ircsale1934@gmail.com

MoRT&H Circular

TENDER NOTICE

TENDER NOTICE

TECHNICAL
TENDER NOTICE
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Delhi Postal Registration No dl-sw-17/4194/19-21

SA INFRASTRUCTURE CONSULTANTS PVT. LTD

Highways Bridges Waterways Railways Sewage Treatment Plant

Highways : Including Access Controlled Expressway and upgradation of

Metro-Rail Services : Including design of underground and elevated metro

Traffic & Transportation and intelligent Transport System - including

Urban Infrastructure Development : Including preparation of Plans,

94 2  0 # :#4 7/ *920:7,

3 1   94

 # 1  

 IRC Technical Committees Meeting Schedule for February, 2019 22

 Advertisements 2, 14, 15, & 54

 Forensic Engineering of Cable Bridges- an Innovative Approach -A Way Forward 16

 Numerical Slope Stability Analysis of Selected Natural and Manmade Slopes 32

 Quantitative Risk Assessment– Road Project Preparation Perspective 39

 New/Revised Publications of IRC–NEW ARRIVALS 49

 Tender Notices 51-53

Publisher & Editor: S.K. Nirmal, Secretary General, IRC

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 3

4 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

(Sanjay Kumar Nirmal)

“Safety first... because accidents last.”

“Safety: expect the unexpected”

“Chance takers are accident makers.”

“Hug your kids at home, but belt them in the car!”

“The essence of road safety is to live healthy”

“Safety is Key, it is Up To You And Me!”

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 5

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON

Glimpses of Inaugural Function of the International Seminar

6 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

Adress by Shri Shigeru Kikukawa

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 7

Releasing of the Sovinour of the Seminar

View of the dais during Technical Session-1

8 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

A View of the Dais during Session-2

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 9

A view of the Dais during Session 3

A view of the Dais during Session 4

10 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

A view of the Dais during Session 5

A view of the Dais during Session 6

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 11

A view of the Valedictory Session

12 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

A view of the Audiances During International Seminar

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 13

Glimpses of Cultural Programme A view of Audiences During Cultural Programme

14 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 15

FORENSIC ENGINEERING OF CABLE BRIDGES- AN INNOVATIVE

1. Introduction Being a product made mostly in the field, where varying

16 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 17

18 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 19

5. Case Studies of Forensic Engineering

Fig. 2: Pylon Protection Against Collision

20 INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019

5.3 Case 3. After Construction: The broken fuel pipe

INDIAN HIGHWAYS FEBRUARY 2019 21

IRC Technical Committees Meeting Schedule for February, 2019

94 2 0# :#4 7/ *920:7,

3 1 94

# 1

5. Case Studies of Forensic Engineering

2. FEM PROGRAM AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS 2. Displacements at the nodal points.

b. Soil Friction – φ (degree) 3. Numerical Problem and its