THE EURO CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

geopolitics
VOL II, ISSUE VII, DECEMBER 2011  `100

DEFENCE  DIPLOMACY  SECURITY

THEKHAN
N
IMRA PACT
RESURRECTING IM
THE BOFORS
GUNS
THE F-35
CHALLENGING
PROSPECTS

TUNNEL OF PRIDE
An engineering marvel, the Rohtang Tunnel has great strategic significance
 EDITOR-IN-CHIEF’S NOTE
g
GEOPOLITICS

It shouldn’t have happened

Journalism is all about trust and integrity. Sometimes one does slip and it
is best to acknowledge the mistake, learn from it and move on.

H
ow do you react to mous feedback and ideas that we are constantly
something that quite flooded with. Taking this episode in the same spir-
simply doesn’t belong to it, we have taken a hard relook at our processes
you, is not original and, in fact, and found to our dismay that one of our senior
is someone else’s work? Quite colleagues on the desk who had the responsibility
K Srinivasan simply you apologise, say sorry, to collate information collected in-house and view
acknowledge the other person’s it against published information and other
authorship, make sure it never ever happens again sources for facts and figures, in fact, actually
and move along. ended up simply cutting and pasting some items OLITIC

So let me tell you to make life easy for them-

COVER2.qx
d 10/29/
Page 1 2011
2:28 PM 1:50 PM

cs geopolitics geopolitic
011
HOW TO MEET THE CHALLENGES IN NEPAL Page 1
LEN GE
d 8/29/2
COVER2.qx

geopoliti
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sep_G
EOPOLITIC
SE CH SP EC
OLITIC
CH INE IAL :
final GEOP
ET TH E VOL II, ISSUE V, OCTOBER 2011  ` 100 VOL II,
ISSUE IND IA’S

Shiv* that ‘we

LO OK

selves. We are
VI, NOVE
TO ME MBER
EA ST
HO W
2011 
` 100
PO LIC
Y

s
` 100
2011 
MBER
IV, SEPTE
ISSUE
VOL II,

are sorry’. It fixing respon-

NCE
 D I P
LOM
ACY
 S E C
URIT
Y
DEFENCE  DIPLOMACY  SECURITY

DEFE

shouldn’t have sibility and DEFE

NCE 
DIPL
OMA
CY 
SECU
RITY

happened. But
now that it has, BULLETIN
THE NUCLEAR
punishing the
guilty. It was NUCLEAR
POWER

we want to make RROR ODYSSEY wrong. FACING

URBAN TE
sure it never ever As an aside For overall national security
India’s affair with nuclear power
appears long lasting

happens again. On NAVAL POWER may I add that AUGMENTING

two different occa- anyone who flips

General
Vijay
(NDA Batch-Kumar Singh
THE END OF 1969)

L E MiG ROMANCE
 Admiral

C
Nirmal

S OFFICERS
(NDA Batch-Kumar Verma

U
1968)

M
 Air Chief

sions we’ve used through Geopoli-

ROTARY
Marsh

&
(NDA Batch-al NAK Browne
THE NEED OF CREDIBLE
G
1970)

INTELLIGENCE ENTLEME e combat

Are the
training

N versatil templat
rged as e es
to produc based on the
pictures that were tics will realise
plat
have eme Indian Air Forc
Helicoptersform for the
e officers British
of the 21s legacy still
t century
?
good eno
ugh

copyrighted with the huge amount

him. On the first occasion (Geopolitics, September
2011, page 54), it came from Wikimedia and on the
second occasion (Geopolitics, October 2011, page
62) from http://butcherhook.blogspot.com/. Logi-
cally credit should have gone on both occasions —
in the first instance, to Wikimedia Commons/Shiv
Aroor and on the second occasion to butcherhook
(although it now seems that this blog has used a
pix from the Aroor collection without credit). On
both occasions, the credits were missing which is
an unpardonable editorial lapse. As for the latest
offending word by word recapitulation of several
paras of an Aroor blog report, it is terrible to say
the very least (Geopolitics, November 2011, page
26). Sadly, there were a couple of other transgres-
sions as well.
All of us at Geopolitics take great pride in
our work and the product we produce. Instances
like these are opportunities for us to revisit our
procedures and acting as our own ombudsman we
have done precisely that in the last few days of
November. We value our readers and the enor-
of work that we do month after month. We have
probably the largest number of commissioned
articles amongst any publication in this genre. I
mention this not to score any points, but to reaf-
firm that we believe, much as Shiv in the power
of the written word and the originality of one’s
copy.
Unfortunately, even the best can trip and I
have no hesitation in saying that on this occasion
we tripped badly. So we are doing what is, per-
haps, the best thing to do under the circum-
stances: apologising whole-heartedly and open-
heartedly.
srini@newsline.in
* The reference is to journalist Shiv Aroor and his blog:
http://livefist.blogspot.com/

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

(3)
 COVER
STORY
(P42)

Strategic Asset
Once completed the Rohtang
tunnel will be one of the world’s
longest at such a high altitude and
will provide India great leverage in
securing the state of Jammu and
Kashmir from any possible threats
from China and Pakistan.
BRO

SPOTLIGHT (P12) FOCUS (P34)

USAF

MoD

DESPERATE PITCH BOFORS REDUX

The latest American offer of the F-35 Lightning emanates out of After a long drought in its artillery procurement pro-
compulsion rather than choice, because of reduction or cancella- gramme, the Army is all set to get the Bofors gun again.
tion of confirmed F-35 orders. But is the Ordnance Factory Board up to the challenge?

PANORAMA (P10) DEF BIZ (P36) INTERNAL SECURITY (P60)

PERSIAN CHALLENGE
Iran’s dangerous game of nuclear
brinkmanship could invite the wrath of
Israel with the threat of preemptive
strikes looming large.
NEED FOR CLARITY
The government must display
determination to initiate radical
reforms to insulate the acquisition
system from corruption.
UNDER SIEGE
Facing threats from both Maoists and ter-
rorists, the sight of heavily armed security
personnel in Indian cities is set to become
a common feature.

(4)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011
 Hemant Rawat
ISAF

PIB
LANDMARK CONTROVERSIAL REVIVING THE THE EURO CRISIS
VENTURE (P28) LAW (P56) EMPIRE (P70) (P78)
The Future Infantry Combat The Armed Forces Special Russian Prime Minister As the sovereign debt crisis
Vehicle (FICV) programme is Powers Act has once again Vladimir Putin’s idea to cre- grows into one of the biggest
considered a milestone in the come in for sharp criticism ate an “Eurasian Union” is challenges the EU has faced,
history of Indian defence acqui- but the Army has opposed being viewed with apprehen- it is clear that scheduled 2012
sition as it is the first under the any move to repeal it. sion by many in the West. bilateral deals with India will
‘Make-India’ procedure. not be ready.

SPECIAL REPORT (P64)

THE IMRAN
KHAN IMPACT
The former Pakistani cricketer’s public
meeting at the Minar-i-Pakistan on
October 30, 2011, was a stupendous
success, but it remains to be seen how
much of this support Khan can sustain
for his political innings.
Wikimedia/Stephan Röhl

DIPLOMACY (74)
UNCERTAIN AGENDA

GEOPOLITICS
g Editor
PRAKASH NANDA
Editor-in-Chief
K SRINIVASAN
Managing Editor
TIRTHANKAR GHOSH
SINCE ITS FORMATION IN 1985,
DOUBTS CONTINUE ABOUT THE
RELEVANCE OF SAARC AS IT IS NEITHER
Consulting Editor Assistant Editor Senior Correspondent Copy Editor AN ECONOMIC BLOC NOR A GROUPING
SAURAV JHA JUSTIN C MURIK ROHIT SRIVASTAVA ASHOK KUMAR FOR GEOPOLITICS. BUT IS THIS
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readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or
geopolitics
VOL II, ISSUE VII, DECEMBER 2011  `100
100

in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be DEFENCE  DIPLOMACY  SECURITY

reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for E
TH KHAN
N

material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise RESURRECTING
THE BOFORS
IMRA PACT
IM

deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian GUNS
THE F-35

Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, CHALLENGING
PROSPECTS
error or failure of advertisement to appear. Cover Design:
Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him Ruchi Sinha
at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Photos:
Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. TUNNEL OF PRIDE
An engineering marvel, the Rohtang Tunnel has great strategic significance
Border Roads
Organisation

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

(5)
 GEOPOLITICS
g LETTERS

LETTERS TO EDITOR

G T G
OING HE Indo- OING
2:30 P
.qxd 10/31/2011
ITBP 12-14

Page 26

g
2:03 PM
10/31/2011
Pipavav 18-22.qxd

g through
the story GEOPOLIT
FOCUS
ICS
Tibetan
Border GEOPOLITI
SPOTLIGHT
CS
through your
November is-
L?
A FLAWED DEA on the suspen-
Justifying the
government’s
decision to
and Pipavav
withhold the
Shipyard,
Police (ITBP) sue, the cover story
between MDL it is not in India’s interests
joint venture argues why

sion of the deal and Army two Grim Portents made

MRINAL SUMAN warship-building
practices in and
to allow such need for transparency
stressed the the complaints
surprise to to study
come as a when the promised
T DID not that regard.

I
le observers received in
knowledgeab joint venture (JV)
The
much-hyped Dock Limited Genesis of
JV of Defence
Pro-
OF THE HIMALAYAS:
between MazagonShipyard was put Prior to the
promulgation
11 (DPP-2011), SENTINELS skills of the ITBP
troops
Pipavav
(MDL) and of Defence
(MoD) Procedure-20 placed only on mountaineering by the Army
Photo:tribon.cn

curement were
on hold by
the Ministry JV had earlier orders for warshipsshipyards, i.e. MDL,
are highly regarded

between forces which me ponder over the

26, 2011. The 12, when sector
on September on September the public & Engineers
Bom- Shipbuilders Hin-
been announced the tie-up to the JV, Garden ReachShipyard Limited and
Pipavav intimated It was to be a 50:50

FIGHTING FORTROL
Limited, Goa Ltd. With the
emergence
bay Stock Exchange. Pipavav Ltd’, dustan Shipyard shipyards in crore, all
‘Mazagon Dock sector for of large-sized and exceeding `100,000
to be called of a number Bharati, L&T have
kind in the defence and sub- sector (ABG, with orders sector shipyards also
the first of its of warships the private could not other public for the
the construction y, it went
askew the government split totally booked
Pipavav), DPP-2011 has their capacities There is a huge backlog

CON
Unfortunatel t. potential. ‘nomi- are

OPERATIONAL
marines. ignore their next 10-15
years.
these shipyards
within days
of its announcemen as Larsen into two categories: Under orders and They
shipyards such had shipbuilding bidding’. of pending their inflow. and
Other private and Bharati nation’ and
‘competitive placed on cope with
orders will be unable to

Pipavav- are responsible possibilities of

(L&T), ABG “arbitrary” JVs to be an
ingenious
and Toubro the decision followed the first category,public sector shipyards have found They can obtain
foul, termed crafts. stratagem.
cried the procedure the nominated and other convenient basis and there-
and questioned selection of the JV for
part-
for ships, submarines private sector orders on
nomination work to JVs. over forces
by MDL for
the faulted category allowsopen competi- the excess that no ry wrangling
process was Further, The second in after outsource will ensure to unnecessa political
ner. The selection ”. participate
shipyards to bag orders. Such an arrangement goes to the ITBP is leading sooner the civil-
of transparency
“a total lack alleged that neither of
any
bidding to try to keep proposal ever preventing for guiding the adversary. The security of the
L&T and ABG
tive that MoD would shipbuilding
category, therebysector ship- The Army’s call border of our most potent for long-term
better it will be A
submission
indicated for nor were any It is natural fully loaded.
sector shipyards shipbuilding competitive of the private the
timeline was the public the emergence competitors and perpet- deployed near the issue, the
almost all majorbe earmarked a final call on
JV proposal, Doubts were
the detailed
norms specified.criteria under Therefore,
will invariably yards as serious
monopoly of
the public sector
leadership takes ROHIT SRIVASTAV does
evaluation Once public the nation, comments and it obviously sen-

Mazagon Dock for securing changing the train-

the selection had proposals category. uating Army cautious this
raised about up, the on
with no experience,track for the nominationthrow their hands hand, private
sector apparatus out of the loop
which Pipavav, to ABG, with a sector shipyards section would get
acti- shipyards. management not want to be was turned
On the other invested enormous that the border Indo-Tibetan
bor- The proposal
been preferred delivered 142 ships. the competitivewords, the private
ship- have Chinese sitive border. then.
shipyards up their capacities. HE AGGRESSIVE of the 4,057-km-long
reorganised at
the institu-
down by the government
record of having are

T
Commit-
vated. In other hope for orders that in building for orders Indo-Tibet bor- der needs to be first effort in this regard
sources:
the ConsultativeMinister A resources are struggling patrols on the government
According to is due to an incident
Addressing
to MoD, Defence yards can onlypublic sector shipyards. However, they sector. Global recession
menace
tional level. The Indian Army
tee attached that the JV
was not
refused by the Navy and the Coast Guard for der are an ever-present ement 2005 by the “The latest thrust an ITBP
from the civil come at a worse time was made in the oper- in 2010 when
K Antony announced on JVs was The Indian n drive to fill Fur- to our border-manag proposal seeking that happened Indian
till a policy could not havehave simply dried up. threat of Chinese when it sent a Bor- patrol within
being progressed High- modernisatio
are on a hectic voids and are likely 15
to agencies. The the border of the Indo-Tibetan patrol met a Chinese Pradesh, resulting
by the government. them. Orders considerable
increased along ational control
put in place was treading critical warship$40 billion in the next there has been incursions has this regular
The reports of made territory in Arunachal
fact that Indiathe issue to be thermore,
cases being reported der Police (ITBP).
lighting the to
Photo:ITBP

spend close loaded have

he wanted MDL is already with multiple Chinese forces

deal in A the Chinese ing methodology

on a new path, and settled before making years. Whereas November
2011
a state incursions by November 2011
fully examined movement. Further,
he year. has reached such
The situation
any forward

www.geopolitics
.in (18) www.geopolitics.i
n (12)

Flawed Deal border — of the Army. The

(November issue), I felt that the shouldn’t behave in the manner they emphasis of the training in the Indian
nation was not able to understand are doing at present. Fighting for oper- Army is on the physical toughness and
the necessity of the strategic business ational control (November issue) has capability. The argument in the article
in nation building. The article brought brought forward the inter-organisation was against this. The author, an experi-
out the condition under which rivalry and the tussle for power in enced officer, has argued that the time
the deal between the Mazagon Delhi. The article is well- balanced has come to relook this. The argument
Dock Limited and Pipavav was inked and it brought forward both sides of has been substantiated with enough re-
and it was surprising that in spite of the story. The understanding of the search materials including data and facts.
all the procedural transparency, the operational matters at the decision- But raw research data can’t compensate
deal got shelved. The impact of it is making level of the government is very for all aspects of any real-life experience.
going to be felt in the Indian subma- less and this has given rise to such a I agree that our training is modeled
rine programme which is lagging situation. against British model. In the era of The
behind by a decade; this is going to The security of the nation can’t Raj the British Army was supposed to
further undermine the submarine pro- be compromised for the ego of any fight across the globe in extreme cli-
duction. officer cadre. The core point that the mates. Things have changed now, but
 Pranav Kumar’s article makes which I agree with is the one cannot ignore the fact that the differ-
pavav 18-22.qxd piece on the same
10/31/2011
2:18 PM
Page 29

training and leadership issue of the ence between the army life and normal
g topic (Why Can’t FOCUS
ITBP. An IPS lead force can’t be average man’s life. The difference is the
DEFENCE
MINISTRY OF
the Ministry of
WHY CAN’T THEK THE TALK? defence production
WAL a major role
in

on why private
sector should
play
per any stretch
country in
the
, is extremely
of imagination world can af-
assigned the important task of guard- same. Today a cadet’s pre-Army life is not
Defence Walk the ing such a sensitive border. The prob- as physically demanding. Life has be-
PRANAV KUMAR -year delay
six-to-eight and cost over- serious. No
find an appropriate
solution
against the Docks by ford not to
passed since ship by Mazagon cent, which, at Yantar Shipyard,
years have of 240 per
HOUGH 64 ce, and
the
runs in access
being launched

T India’s Independenwith a 1.2-bil-

biggest democracyhas some of the
lion-strong
population
reformists
and intellectu-
FOREIGN
IMPORT:
ANOTHER Russia, on June 23,
Kaliningrad,
INS Tarkash
2010.

greatest brains, is still not self-reliant

ng and
als, the country to the manufacturi
when it comes

Talk?), was a lem has been making the news regu- come easy, and so even when the battle-
military hardware.
servicing of per cent of India’s military
Almost 70 largely from
imported today, USA,
hardware are as Russia, France, the
countries such Italy and Israel.
Defence
this
the UK, Germany, intends to reverse
AK Antony He also seems
Minister
next few years. private
trend in the about involving the
to be serious But whether
production. is on track
sector in defence (MoD)
of Defence re-

good read with larly but the detailed reporting of the field has become less tough, thanks to
the Ministry the vision of its minister
to implement
question. its de-
mains a big India has opened up with
On paper, sector
to the private It
fence industryinvestment now allowed.
100 per cent for Foreign
up 26 per cent no
has also opened (FDI). However, sig-
Direct Investments made any
houses have sector
major business investment in this
lack of
nificant capital entry barriers and

insights regard- problem has been done by only you. A modern equipments, the gap is the same.
due to the
huge on a guar-
business prospects
large capex
(cap-
long-term
against the
anteed basis ) requirement
.
and
ital expenditure recent Comptroller
Going by the (CAG) reports, force-level
up
Auditor General’s Navy is not
s of the Indianaircraft carriers
preparednes and
Frigates tankers
to the mark. built in Russia and oil
are still being in Italy. Orders for corvettes,
are being built amongst

ing the rationale field report, along with the story would The Indian Army today is fighting at
frigates, destroyers, ly
submarines, to approximate
others, amounting with De-
have been placeds (DPSUs)
`1,25,000 crore,
Sector Undertaking (MDL),
fence Public Docks Limited
such as Mazagon (HSL), Goa
Shipyard Limited Garden Reach
Hindustan (GSL), and
Shipyard Limited Limited (GRSE).
& Engineers `1,25,000
Shipbuilders worth nearly pa-
More contracts frigates, landing de-
for

behind the have given more depth and a better the height where it never was, or no
crore for submarines, are lined up
(LPDs) etc the cumulative
trol docks Ironically,
fence PSUs. has never
of shipyards 2011
annual revenue crore.
November
crossed `5,000 CAG strongly remarked
In fact, the

www.geopolitic
s.in (21)

Expression of example to illustrate the ground situa- force has ever been in history for a long
Interest for the joint venture between tion. Brahma Chellany’s book has duration. These challenges demand
private and public shipyards. The made waves across the world and his physical fitness. I think yours is the first
ministry’s reaction suggests lethargy thoughts on the issue was extremely magazine to ask such a pertinent ques-
or indecisiveness on its part. Raj informative, to say the least. I hope we tion. Kudos to you.
Mehta’s cover story (Grim Portents) can see more authors giving their per-
should start a debate on the training spective their books in near future. I Sishupal Nigam
methodology of the Army. Its time has would also like to commend you on Dehradun
come. the eye-catching cover. Keep up the
good work. All correspondence may be addressed
to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement,
Joginder Singh Umang Kumar Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013.
New Delhi Luckhnow OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in.

(6)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011
{GOLDENEYE}
g

Vijay reminds you of Ajay

V
IJAY KUMAR, the dynamic DG
of the Central Reserve Police
Force, must have realised the
importance of the press after
the encounter of Maoist leader
Kishenji in West Bengal. The credit
for the successful operation was
usurped by the Bengal police,
where the CRPF played a
significant role. Vijay Kumar did
not meet the press formally before
the annual press conference last month
— the first time in his one-year stint
as DG. He is famous for continuously
touring the operational units
across the country and is
rarely seen sitting at
headquarters. After the
operational success
against Kishenji he must
have realised that success
is never complete without
getting due credit. Morale boosting
of jawans is also needed not simply
through credits in the press but also
with the visits of a sensitive and
supportive DG.
Vijay Kumar reminds many of the
dynamic Ajay Raj Sharma, who led the
one-time SIT (Special Investigative
Team) in Uttar Pradesh. And who was
later hugely successful as the first non-
cadre Police Commissioner of Delhi and
then one of the most celebrated DGs of
the Border Security Force (BSF). Sharma
literally put the fear of God both in the
Pakistani Rangers and the Bangladeshi
Rifles and in one much reported face-off
with his Bangladeshi counterpart, told
him where to get off. Vijay Kumar is
made of the same mettle. He must be
one of the few officers who gets along
famously with all politicians in Tamil
Nadu and isn’t viewed as one or the
other’s acolyte. But, in the capital, he
must be one of the lowest of low-profile
cops and when he isn’t juggling the
sundry balls that the regions toss at him,
Vijay is busy plotting how to get the
CRPF to the next level. Attaboy!

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

(8)

g
Handing charge
V
ice Admiral Anil Chopra must be a relieved man
now that he has taken over as Flag Officer Com-
manding in Chief, Eastern Naval Command. His
35-month tenure was one of the most critical in
the history of the Indian Coast Guard. As its Director
General, his officers and his ships had to be alert and
battle-ready. After all, on one hand there were the
Somali pirates threatening commercial vessels near
Indian coasts and on the other were threats from the
likes of Ajmal Kasab. Under his leadership, the Coast
Guard performed admirably — remember when Coast
Guard Ship Sankalp along with a Navy vessel rescued 20
fishermen and arrested 15 Somali pirates early this year.
All those not in the know, Admiral Chopra’s wife,
Ragini Chopra is the indefatigable Vice President (Corpo-
rate Communication and PR) of Jet Airways. Although, a
power couple, the two have maintained low profile
lifestyles and prefer to focus on their work; but we have a
bone to pick up with Admiral Chopra. The long promised
interview as DG (Coast Guard) could never happen but
we hope he has a productive time as a Head of the East-
ern Fleet and at some point we will get to chat with him.
We wish him the very best in his new role.
www.geopolitics.in
(9)
{GOLDENEYE}
Jaane bhi do yaaron
Bhai, bada maaza aya Golden Eye ko Facebook
mein dekh ke. But that is not the point, one com-
ment amongst the sundry caught our eye. Some-
one wanted to know who were the sangeet man-
dali, the dictation patrakars. Arey jaane bhi do
yaaron. Why discuss chamchas, they are born to
take dictation and they will continue to do so —
kal aaj aur kal. As for the char chand that some
observers are offering the head of PR, there is no
doubt he deserves it. After all it is his job to project
his institution and his masters in the best light. If
someone wants to take dictation, what can poor
Mr Kar do? As LK Advani said famously in a differ-
ent context: “Some were willing to crawl when they
were asked to bend.”
Pallam is in form
The strategic business circle which keeps meeting
regularly in the defence industry seminar circuit
has a permanent crib about government represen-
tatives not attending. The post-inaugural session
sees the Minister and secretaries leaving for the
ministry, but the recently-held Defcom 2011 saw a
change. The Minister for State, Pallam Raju, not
only attended but also chaired the session. Obvi-
ously, the well-experienced junior Minister, who
has become a regular at seminars and very vocal in
the last few months, is now more or less the
spokesperson for the Defence Ministry. With Rak-
sha Mantri AK Antony being such a stroke-less
wonder and no one understanding his mumbo
jumbo, someone has to speak out. Pallam Raju
does it with aplomb. The only problem is where all
can the good man present himself?
Immandari not for sale!
South Block is undergoing restoration. The effort is
being made to restore it to its lost glory. The
recently restored courtyard in the Ministry of
Defence saw a banner, ‘Immandari bikau nahin
hai (Honesty is not for sale)’ and in the same
courtyard in another corner there was a banner
reading, ‘Chori ka maal mori main (Stolen money
in the manhole)’. The moral of the story is that for
everyone claiming that all is well, there are many
who are telling you that all is not well. Now what
we want to know is where the mori is and who has
done the chori? Or, is it that when you do chori, it
will end up in the mori (manhole).
December 2011
 g
GEOPOLITICS
PANORAMA

IAEA REPORT “I can tell you that the IAEA report

“Iran has carried
activities relevant to the
development of a
nuclear explosive device,
including acquisition of
has a sobering impact on many in the
“Iran is developing nuclear weapons. world, leaders as well as the publics,
If anyone had any doubts, the IAEA and people understand … now that
(International Atomic Energy Agency) Iran is determined to reach nuclear
report certainly dispelled them. It is weapons. And that should be
important to impose sanctions, tough stopped.”
sanctions, on this regime — even
tougher than those that have been EHUD BARAK


nuclear weapons imposed over the past few days.” Israeli Defence Minister
development BENJAMIN NETANYAHU


information and Israeli Prime Minister
documentation from a
clandestine nuclear
supply network; and “We are not taking any
work on the options off the table. Iran
development of an with nuclear weapons would
pose a threat not only to the
indigenous design of a region but also to the United
nuclear weapon States.”


including the testing of BARACK OBAMA

components.” US President

“Preventing the proliferation of

nuclear weapons is one of the IAEA’s
core responsibilities. Throughout
the past three years, we have
obtained additional information
which gives us a fuller picture of
Iran’s nuclear programme and
increases our concerns about
possible military dimensions.”


K MR. AMANO
IAEA Chief

www.geopolitics.in
 g
PANORAMA

“The possibility of a military

attack against Iran is now closer
to being applied than the
application of a diplomatic

Digital Globe-ISIS
option, the intelligence services
of several countries are looking at
the ticking clock, warning leaders
that there is not much time left”.
SHIMON PERES
Israeli President THE SMOKING GUN: This 2006 image shows Iranian facilities at Esfahan
including the tunnel entrance near the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF).


“You should know that this

nation will not pull back even
a needle’s width from the
path it is on. Why do you
damage the agency’s dignity
because of America’s invalid
claims? They have
empowered a person in
the IAEA that has no
authority and violates
the agency’s rules by
repeating the words of
the US.”
MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD
Iranian President

UN Resolutions against Iran
 Resolution 1737 — December 23, 2006:
Banned the supply of nuclear-related
materials and technology, froze assets of
related individuals and companies
 Resolution 1747 — March 24, 2007:
Imposed arms embargo, expanded freeze
on Iranian assets
 Resolution 1803 — March 3, 2008: Extended
freezing of assets, called upon states to
monitor activities of Iranian banks, inspect

ships and aircraft, monitor the movement

of individuals involved with the programme
 Resolution 1929 — June 9, 2010: Banned
Iran from participating in any activities
related to ballistic missiles, tightened the
arms embargo, travel bans on individuals
involved with the programme, froze funds
and assets of Iranian Revolutionary Guard
and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines
amongst others

December 2011

(11)

BEHIND UNCLE
SAM’S OFFER
T
HE US Defense Department
offered India technology-shar-
ing and talks on its top
weapons programme: Lock-
heed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter (JSF). “Should India indicate
interest in the JSF, the United States
would be prepared to provide informa-
tion on the JSF and its requirements,”
including on security and infrastructure,
the Defense Department said on Novem-
ber 2, 2011, in a Congressionally-man-
dated report on US-India security coop-
eration.
The nine-page review of defence ties
with India was prepared in response to a
legislative provision sponsored earlier
this year by Senate Armed Services Com-
mittee members Joe Lieberman, a Con-
necticut independent, and John Cornyn,
a Texas Republican. Bethesda, Maryland-
based Lockheed Martin builds the F-35 in
Texas. United Technologies makes the
plane’s engines in Connecticut.
Of course, it is not the first time that
the US has made this offer. In July 2007,
the US had offered the F-35 to India as a
“potential follow-on to current multirole
combat aircraft programme”. Neverthe-
less, the latest offer does constitute
a fresh challenge to both the US
US Air Force
and India owing to two dif-
ferent, but interesting,
economic factors
www.geopolitics.in
g
GEOPOLITICS
SPOTLIGHT
The United States is offering its
India. The offer, however, raises
linked to the aviation technology quality
of the Occident and the matching defi-
ciency thereof in the Orient.
The crux of the matter lies in the US
thought of the day: “The US is committed
to give India top-of-the-line technology.”
Inherent in it, therefore, is the confession
that the US has thus never given “top-of-
the-line-technology” to India! The ques-
tion is: Why did USA avoid thinking of
giving/offering “top-of-the-line-technol-
ogy” to India? What lies behind the US
change of heart? To understand, one per-
force needs to delve slightly deeper into
American armament technology and
trade thereof.
The US was the largest exporter of
major conventional weapons from 2006
to 2010, accounting for 30 per cent of
world arms transfers. Asia and Oceania
topped with 44 per cent of US deliveries
of major conventional weapons in 2006-
2010 which was followed by the Middle
East (28 per cent) and Europe (19 per
cent). Interestingly, India never figured in
the list of top US customers such as South
Korea, Australia, Japan, Israel, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, etc, because even after the
demise of the Soviet Union, the
(12)
latest Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)
F-35 Lightning-II aircraft to
some critical questions that
need answers, says
ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA
new Russia remained New Delhi’s main
supplier of major arms since 1991. This
remained the position as late as 2006-
2010 with Russia accounting for 82 per
cent of deliveries to Raisina Hills.
Things, however, are dramatically
changing owing to all-round pressure on
defence budgets around the globe, espe-
cially among the leading European
nations. Thus, in 2010 the British govern-
ment announced that it would purchase
only one type of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
from the US, thereby confirming earlier
apprehensions that London could cancel
plans to purchase the Short Take-Off and
Vertical Landing (STOVL) version, the F-
35B. Both Italy and the Netherlands fall
into this category, thereby affecting the
American calculation of marketing and
return on high investment costs in a high-
ly volatile arms bazaar with a diminishing
demand.
In fact, the graphs of annual mili-
tary/defence expenditure of France,
ALTERNATE CUSTOMER: Export of the
F-35 to India emanates out of compulsion
rather than choice, because of cancellation
of confirmed orders
December 2011

GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS
 Crew: 1
 Length: 50 ft 6 in (15.37 m)
 Wingspan: 35 ft 0 in (10.65 m)
 Height: 17 ft 4 in (5.28 m)
 Wing area: 459.6 ft (42.7 m)
 Empty weight: 26,000 lb (12,000 kg)
 Loaded weight: 44,400 lb (20,100 kg)
 Max takeoff weight: 60,000 lb (27,200
kg)
 Powerplant: 1 Pratt & Whitney F135
afterburning turbofan
o Dry thrust: 28,000 lbf[44] (128 kN)
o Thrust with afterburner: 43,000 lbf (191
kN)
 Lift fan (STOVL): 1Rolls-Royce Lift Sys-
tem driven from either F135 or F136
power plant, 18,000 lbf (80 kN)
PERFORMANCE
 Maximum speed: >Mach 1.8 (1,200
mph, 1,931 km/h)
 Range: 1,200 nmi (1,400 mi, 2,200 km)
Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and others
are all facing a downward spiral, thereby
leading to the cancellation of high-end
arms purchases. Thus, the economic
downturn has led to drastic cancellation
of confirmed orders of the four-nation
(the UK; Germany; Italy and Spain)
Eurofighter by the producers themselves,
which partly explains the European con-
sortium’s keen interest to get into India’s
lucrative military mart.
As regards the US, though it dominates
the global arms industry in terms of
arms sales, the massive cut in
domestic budget vis-a-vis new
and experimental armament by
President Obama has led the
US to shift its arms policy
from domestic purchase
to export market.
Thus in August
www.geopolitics.in
g
SPOTLIGHT
F-35 DETAILS
on internal fuel
 Combat radius: 600 nmi (690 mi, 1,110
km)
 Wing loading: 91.4 lb/ft (446 kg/m)
 Thrust/weight:
o With full fuel: 0.968
o With 50 % fuel: 1.22
ARMAMENT
 1 GAU-12/U 25 mm cannon
 Internally (current planned weapons
for integration), up to four AIM-120
AMRAAM, AIM-9X Sidewinder or AIM-
132 ASRAAM internally or two air-to-air
and two air-to-ground weapons (up to
two 2,000 lb weapons in A and C models;
two 1000 lb weapons in the B model) in
the bomb bays. These could be
AMRAAM, the Joint Direct Attack Muni-
tion (JDAM), the Joint Standoff Weapon
(JSOW), Small Diameter Bombs (SDB),
2010, the US President linked the pro-
posed reforms (stemming from the com-
prehensive review of US arms export con-
trols) to “enhancing the competitiveness
of US manufacturing and technology sec-
tors”, as part of a “wider drive to increase
US exports and create jobs”.
Here one may recall Obama’s clarion
call to his domestic audience to “force
open the Indian market for US job cre-
ation” on the eve of his state visit to India
in 2010. Since India is
an open-air opera
house for foreign
manufacturers from
small arms to aircraft
owing to her sustained
and systematic failure to
be self-sufficient (unlike
China in the neighbour-
hood), one can recapitulate
the oft-quoted internationally-
accepted description of New Del-
hi: “India offers a huge defence
market.”
As India’s military
expenditure in 2010 stood at an
estimated $41.3 billion, India emerged as
the world’s largest recipient of major con-
ventional weapons thereby “reflecting
(13)
the Brimstone anti-armor missiles, Clus-
ter Munitions (WCMD) and High Speed
Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM). The
MBDA Meteor air-to-air missile is cur-
rently being adapted to fit internally in
the missile spots and may be integrated
into the F-35.
 At the expense of being more
detectable by radar, many more missiles,
bombs and fuel tanks can be attached on
four wing pylons and two wingtip posi-
tions. The two wingtip pylons can only
carry short-range air-to-air missiles
(AIM-9s), while the Storm Shadow and
Joint Air to Surface Stand-off Missile
(JASSM) cruise missiles can be carried in
addition to the stores already integrated.
An air-to-air load of 12 AIM-120s and
two AIM-9s is conceivable using internal
and external weapons stations, as well as
a configuration of six two thousand
pound bombs, two AIM-120s and two
AIM-9s. (Source: Open Encyclopedia Wiki)
both the rapid pace of military moderni-
sation and the inability of domestic
industry to supply it”. The flip side of the
story is that it has enhanced the value and
importance of India as a consumer, there-
by empowering her bargaining leverage to
stipulate stringent purchasing conditions
and giving suppliers economic incentive
to cooperate with Delhi’s demands. The
world knows that the capital expenditure
(on equipment and infrastructure) of Del-
hi went up from 23 per cent in 2004-2005
and remained around 34 per cent ever
since. This spending stands for the mod-
ernisation of the Indian armed forces.
On the American front, however,
“export to India” emanates out of com-
pulsion rather than choice, as reduction
or cancellation of confirmed F-35 orders
potentially threatens the US politico-eco-
nomics of employment. There also exists
another recurring problem of technology
transfer to the users of F-35 as the US still
is “reluctant to divulge sensitive techno-
logical secrets” even to her closest west-
ern ally. The subject was at heart of dia-
logue between the US and the UK in 2005
and 2006 as the latter threatened to with-
draw if denied access to technology
required to “operate, sustain and upgrade
aircraft, especially computer software
codes”. Though this tricky issue was
thought to be resolved in 2006, “in 2009
December 2011

US Air Force
the US con-
firmed that it
would not share
computer software
codes with anyone”. This
US rigidity needs to be
noted by India. If the
UK, the closest and best
friend of the US, with a
shared history, culture,
economics, technology
and military operations, is denied access
to F-35 technology, then what are the
chances of India?
The economics of the aircraft, from
drawing board to the delivery bill, also
raises concerns. Conceived in November
1994, the F-35 programme developed
through the investment of billions of dol-
lars by the US government for research
and development undertaken by aviation
giants Boeing, Lockheed Martin, McDon-
nell Douglas, Northrop Grumman, Pratt
& Whitney (for aero engines) and the
General Electric/Allison/Rolls Royce
team for alternative power plants. Along
with the deep commitment of US Depart-
ment of Defence in the F-35 programme,
the UK too had to shell out millions of
dollars as demonstration phase cost,
being the “full collaborative partner”.
Other than this, Australia, Canada,
France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Singa-
pore, Spain and Sweden too incurred
expenditure for collaborating with the US
government for “System Development
and Demonstration” (SDD). According to
Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2011-2012:
“Poland and South Korea are potential
future additions.”
In fact, there emerges an unspoken
and unsigned understanding in the F-35
fighter programmeme which appears to
suggest: “This is an ultra-high-tech, high-
investment risky project which could not
be undertaken by the weak, meek and the
backward; but even the advanced eco-
nomics and technology nation like the US
required partners for research and devel-
opment. Hence anyone interested in the
end-use of this advanced fighter must
shell out money to be with the US from
the very beginning. Remember, it is not a
run-of-mill fighting machine because it is
www.geopolitics.in
g
SPOTLIGHT
the military market’s sole 5th gen-
eration fighter aircraft for which
we are extremely proud of, being
the producer and users and would
also like to be (and remain) thereof as the
unique distributor.”
Understandably, therefore, what ulti-
mately stands out is the cost; and the cost
is bound to be all-inclusive elements
such as the procurement, logistics, main-
tenance, repair, overhaul, crew training,
weapons and the avionics integration
and what all have you to acquire and
operate in an all-weather combat sce-
nario in South Asia (in case India wishes
to possess this aircraft). What then could
be the unit cost of the single-engine F-35
for India? Will it be cheaper to procure or
will it be economically prohibitive to
operate and maintain for a period of say a
life cycle of 30 years vis-a-vis the short-
listed twin-engine French Rafale or the
four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon?
Reportedly, the average unit cost of F-
35 can fluctuate anywhere between $50
million to $152.1 million thereby “show-
ing marked disparity arising from differ-
ences relating to when aircraft were
ordered, required support levels,
weapon options” etc. Thus, the Ameri-
can budget documentation for “aircraft
to be acquired in FY-2010 showed unit
cost for US Air Force F-35A to be $130.6
million; and comparable figure for US
Navy/Marine Corps aircraft was $152.1
million”. Now, if this unit price is calcu-
lated for “India’s requirement” (of any-
where between 126 and 199 aircraft),
one can have a fairly clear idea as to
what could be the sum total of the astro-
nomical figure of India’s aviation assets
in future!
Compared to the American F-35, the
four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon cost too
could be anywhere between £50 million
and £70 million per unit. And finally,
when the French Air Force ordered 234
(14)
CLASSIFIED TECHNOLOGY: The
US is still reluctant about divulging
sensitive technological secrets, even
to its closest allies
French Dassault Rafale
fighter aircraft for €26.4 billion in 2005,
one can only guess as to what it takes to
possess expensive, state-of-the-art
brand-new fighter aircraft which a for-
eign country makes!
The latest news for Lockheed F-35,
however, is that the “US Marine Corps F-
35B total is now believed to have been
reduced to just three in wake of the
announcement by (the then) Defence
Secretary Robert Gates in January 2011
that F35-B model was ‘on probation’
pending resolution of what he described
as significant testing problems”. Further
cancellation orders have come in from
Canada from 80 to 65 and the Nether-
lands, 85 to 52. The planned UK pro-
curement of 138 F35-B is also subject to
major review. “In October 2010, it
emerged that the UK would receive the
F35-C version and that the quantity to
be acquired could well be as low as 60”
thereby inflicting a major blow to the
F35-B variant. Ironically, the worst ver-
dict on this high-tech aircraft came from
the US National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform for cancella-
tion of F35-B “on grounds of technical
problems, rising cost and program-
meme delay”.
In short, with the F35-B likely to be
operated by several “risk-sharing” Euro-
pean partners and possibly Israel, Singa-
pore, Japan, Taiwan and Australia could
India stand out as a separate class by
itself? Being a market of (anywhere up to)
500 “high-value” combat aircraft during
the next 10 years (when more planes will
be decommissioned) the US urge to rope
in Delhi is understandable. However,
what could constitute an unparalleled
future mystery is how India would cope
with the “non-supply and non-sharing of
computer software codes” by the US
along with the “technical problems, rising
cost and programmeme delay” which
have upset even the programmeme man-
agers of Washington DC? Should India
take the American bait? If so, at what cost
and purpose?
(The author is an alumnus of the
National Defence College)
December 2011
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gONLOOKER
QUIPMETER Candid Dubya

SMALL TAKES
China sent troops in 1956 to occupy parts of the GEORGE BUSH is blunt man and
Paracel islands. In 1974, one year before the end during a recent whistle stop trip
of the Vietnam War, when the islands were jointly to India to address CEOs at a pri-
controlled by China and South Vietnam, China vate do, he had some straight
used force to occupy all of the Hoang Sa islands, forward things to say. He said
Vietnam has all legal and historical grounds to India must be wary of China. The
confirm its sovereignty. US, he said was the first target,
PIB

next in line was India. And never,

PIB
Nguyen Tan
Dung
NGUYEN TAN DUNG he said, do business with the
Vietnamese Prime Minister George Bush Russians. As for the Pakistani, he
said US patience was wearing
We were able to confirm the importance of thin; just as it was with Iran. “If Iran goes after
international laws for the oceans, which are a Israel, the U.S. will go after Iran,” he was quoted as
public asset connecting the Asia-Pacific region. We telling the CEOs.
welcome the United States’ decision to deepen its
commitment [to the region].The Japan-U.S.
alliance is the public property of the Asia-Pacific
region. Japan will contribute to the peace and Peace overtures
stability of the region through the alliance.
PIB FOR A man who dethroned his
YOSHIHIKO NODA Yoshihiko Noda father in a coup in 1995, Hamad
Japanese Prime Minister bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Emir of
Qatar, it’s quite an
achievement to make his
The United States does not take a position on
nation a diplomatic power
any territorial claim, because any nation with a
house in the midst of warring
claim has a right to assert it, but they do not have
Arab states.
a right to pursue it through intimidation or
To strike a defence pact
coercion. They should be following international
with Iran-a nation on the
law, the rule of law, the U.N. Convention on Law
brink of war with every Arab
of the Sea.
nation — and to host the
nato.int
PIB

HILLARY CLINTON headquarters of the American

Hillary Clinton US Secretary of State Central Command, which
Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani
The dispute which exists among relevant
countries in this region over the South China Sea
is an issue which has built up for several years. It
ought to be resolved through friendly
Back from the cold
consultations and discussions by countries AUNG SAN Suu Kyi will soon contest elections. Speaking to
directly involved. Outside forces should not, members of the Council of Foreign Relation — just a day
under any pretext, get involved. before Hillary Clinton’s historic trip to Myanmar — through a
video conference, Suu Ki said she would contest the by-elec-
PIB

WEN JIABAO tions to fill 48 vacant seats that is likely to be held soon. But
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao
she was candid: her entry in politics was
fraught with risk and there were
The issue of sovereignty should be resolved imponderables. The operative part
according to international law and practice. of that statement was that she per-
sonally trusted the President and
MANMOHAN SINGH former head of the Military Junta
Indian Prime Minister
Thein Sein and added, “I cannot
say that everybody in the govern-
ment feels as he does.” Meanwhile,
PIB

Hillary Clinton engaged with the

Manmohan singh Maynmarese Government —
the first by a US Secretary of
In response to recent sovereignty disputes in the State since 1955 — indicat-
Wikimedia/Evo101469

area, it is indeed necessary to pay attention to ed that it would reengage

[the situation] but there is no need to overreact at with them, slowly lift
timessquaregossip.com

this moment. sanctions and gently sug-

gested that it “sever illicit
MA YING-JEOU ties to North Korea”.
Taiwanese President Thein Sein called the vis-
Ma Ying-jeou it “a historic milestone”.
Aung San Suu Kyi

(18)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

Salafi who?
It is no surprise that the Mus-
lim Brotherhood has won
over 40 per cent of the vote in
dodmedia.osd.mil
the Egyptian elections, but
what is astounding is the top
showing of the ultraconserva-
tive Islamists, called Salafis.
Every heard of them? The
Mohamed Salafis — as the Taliban —
Hussein Tantawi views regular or popular
entertainment like music and cinemas as sin-
ful and also believe women have no business
to be in voting or public life. Poor Field Marshal
Tantawai ! He has one hell of a job to handle !
would be responsible for launching
attacks against Iran if war ever broke out
between US and Iran, is an achievement
which is very rare for any nation in
history. Qatar has been successful in
even keeping the details of the defence
pact secret. Iranian leader Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, incidentally, is a regular
visitor to Qatar.
Today, Qatar is the Norway of West
Asia, the regional peace superpower.
From sorting out differences between
political parties of Lebanon to solving
the Sudan’s internal problem by
guiding the government and rebels
towards peace, and even hosting
IN A surprising-as much for Australians as it was for Indians —
Prime Minister Julia Gillard argued that her country must take a U-
turn its policy an agree to sell uranium to India. Her argument is
that selling uranium to India for peaceful purposes will broaden
Australian markets and increase jobs.” We must, of course, expect
of India the same standards we do of all countries for uranium
export - strict adherence to International Atomic Energy Agency
courtesy sydney morning herald
www.geopolitics.in
O N L O O K E R g
Turning the screws Dempsey’s take on 2020
ARMY GENERAL Martin E. Dempsey who
It is unprecedented to is now the Joint Chief of Staff of the US
say the very least. The Armed forces believes that the US Military
Arab League’s unprece- Strategy for 2020 would mean juggling
dented sanctions is liter- many balls at the same time:
ally ‘brother’ telling “We’re never going to try to build a force
Bashar Al Assad that it that’s only capable of doing one thing at
was time for him to pack a time,” he said. “That would be silly. It
and leave; indeed, a seri- would be ill advised,” he said during a re-
PIB
ous political message to cent talk on the subject. “We’ve been fo-
Bashar al-Assad
Syria. The Secretary Gen- cused and we’ve prioritized the Middle
eral of the Arab League, Nabil al-Arabi has East, but there is every reason to believe
said: “You have to behave, you have to that the next decade will see demographic
stop what is going on, it’s not business as shifts and economic shifts and military
usual. Something has to happen.” shifts into the Pacific.” Dempsey also be-
lieves that cyber warfare is a real threat
and deserves far more attention.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
many times ignoring the request of
International Criminal Court for
alleged war-crime trials, the Emir has
affected many a diplomatic coup de
grace. The Emir’s most audacious
diplomatic move is his effort to bring
peace to Palestine. He hosted the Israeli
trade mission till the Israeli offensive in
Gaza in 2010. The Emir even made a
conditional offer to reopen its trade
mission if Israel were to allow building
materials to Gaza. Israel declined the
offer. He has also been hosting Hamas,
the arch enemy of Israel which controls
jcs.mil
the Gaza Strip.
Martin E. Dempsey
Julia springs a surprise
arrangements and strong bilateral and transparency measures
which will provide assurances our uranium will be used only for
peaceful purposes,” she wrote in her piece. Two key minister —
resources Minister Martin Ferguson and Foreign Minister Kevin
Rudd both support of selling uranium to India. Rudd had actually
during his regime red penciled the proposed sale deal. But opinion
in Australia is mixed: The Sydney Morning Herald in a hard-hitting
opinion piece said ‘no’ to the deal:’ Some people
argue it is hypocritical to export uranium to Chi-
na without supplying it to India. But the facts are
that China is a signatory of the Non-Prolifera-
tion Treaty while India is not. The argument that
Australia should forgo its international obliga-
tions because of India’s “strategic importance”
ignores the strategic importance of stabili-
ty in Asia and of the global push for
nuclear disarmament. Supplying urani-
um to India raises questions on whether
we would supply uranium to other non-
signatories to the treaty, such as Israel or
Pakistan — a coun-
try that already
resents the preferen-
tial treatment enjoyed
by its neighbor, India.”
Wikimedia/Kate Lundy Julia Gillard
December 2011
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90,000 For China border
panoramio.com
OVER THE next five years, the Indian
government will increase the strength of
the army by almost a lakh soldiers in order
to counter increasing Chinese military
21 Hawks for Surya
Kiran team
scramble.nl
pakmr.blogspot
THE INDIAN Air Force (IAF) has com-
menced the acquisition of 21 additional
Hawk aircraft, built by Hindustan Aero-
nautics Limited (HAL), Bengaluru. The
Surya Kiran Acrobatic Team (SKAT) will
now take to the air quicker, turn tighter
and manoeuvre more dramatically than
what they did with the vintage Kiran
Mark II trainer aircraft that they have
flown since 1996 with the new Hawk
Advanced Jet Trainers. HAL will build
another 21 Hawks after it builds the 123
aircraft ordered by the IAF and the Indi-
an Navy. The IAF has commenced the
ensuing acquisition of 21 extra Hawks
trainer jets from BAE Systems.
www.geopolitics.in
g
GEOPOLITICS
NUMBERSGAME
build-up along the border and
other multifarious security
tests in the region. According
to a report in The Times of
India, the Ministry of Defence
(MoD) has approved a
`64,000-crore military mod-
ernisation plan. As part of the
plan, four new divisions would
be raised along the Indian bor-
der with China. The scheme
also incorporates the forma-
tion of two independent
brigades: one in Uttarakhand
and the other in Ladakh. After
its approval, this plan would
become the largest-ever mod-
ernisation and expansion drive
for the army. The scale of the deployment
would also make it the largest on the bor-
der with China since the Sino-Indian war
of 1962.
700 km — Range of
new Pak missile
here4share.blogspot
ACCORDING TO a Pakistani statement,
the Hatf-7 cruise missile, which can hit
targets in India, was aimed at consolidat-
ing the country’s strategic deterrence
capability and strengthening national
security. The Hatf-7 is a “low-flying, ter-
rain hugging missile with high manoeu-
vrability, pinpoint accuracy and radar
avoidance features”. The test of the
“indigenously developed” missile, which
has stealth capabilities, was successful.
The test was aimed at validating the
design parameters of the weapon system.
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56
Indo-US military
exercises held
Corwin Colbert\US Navy
ACCORDING TO a new Pentagon
report, the US has come out as the
largest military training partner for
India and there have been as many as
56 ‘cooperative events’ between the
armed forces of both countries in the
past year. These range from dedicated
exercises involving small teams like
special forces training, to huge exercises
similar to the Malabar series of naval
war games. The Pentagon is looking for
ways to expand exercises.
10
Bombs found on
Assam bridge
A RAILWAY official averted a possible
calamity when he found 10 crude
bombs from a railway bridge on the
Lumding-Badarpur hill section in
southern Assam. According to
Northeast Frontier Railway (NFR)
spokesman Nilanjan Deb, the 10
powerful bombs together with deto-
nators were found at a railway bridge
between Mahur and Phiding stations
on Lumding-Badarpur hill section.
Several trains scheduled to ply
through this section were stopped,
averting possible disasters after the
bombs were found by a railway
trackman during a normal patrolling
duty.
December 2011
 g
NUMBERSGAME

500 New NIA

posts created
2 More AWACS for IAF
INDIA IS considering more Israeli Phalcons
AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems)
aircraft. These highly sophisticated aircraft are
equipped with a variety of sensors and are capa-
ble of detecting hostile aircraft, cruise missiles
and other incoming aerial threat far before
Michael Sender

ground-based radars. The cost of the new sys-

tems is expected to be more than $800 million.
The “draft contract” for the two new AWACS is
now finally in the final stages of being examined.

THE NATIONAL Investigation

Agency is all set to expand by
opening three new offices and
increasing the organisation’s
strength from the existing 400 to
200 Crore ‘grenade’ savings
THE FIREPOWER of Indian Army infantry units is set
weapons.technology.youngester.com

nearly 900. Set up after the 2008 to be boosted with the shift from vintage hand
Mumbai terror attacks, the NIA grenades to the advanced, multi-mode grenades. In-
is assigned with cases related to duction of these grenades would save the country
terror. The move to expand the `200 crore every year. The Army has placed an order
agency three years after its of 18 lakh grenades against its actual requirement of
inception will raise the counter- 80 lakh to replace the existing M36 grenades. The ex-
terror agency’s strength to 900, isting vintage grenades can go off accidentally but
besides opening offices in Luc- the Shivalik grenade incorporates safety features to
know, Kochi and Mumbai, offi- insure that this does not happen. The Navy and para-
cials said. military forces have ordered these grenades.

140 On UN mission
THE CENTRAL Industrial police functions. The pro-
42,000
Jobs at DSC
Security Force (CISF) tection of civilians and
contingent widely re- United Nations personnel, INDIA WILL enlarge the man-
ferred to as ‘Bleus Indi- facilities, installations and power of the specialist
ens’ (Blue Indians) have equipment and the security Defence Security Corps (DSC)
been sent for the United and freedom of movement with the intention of boosting
Nations stabilisation mis- will be some of the major re- the security of its defence
sion to the Caribbean na- sponsibilities of this self-sus- office and strategic installa-
tion of Haiti to provide civil tained contingent. tions across the country. The
DSC, which carries out the

770
Crore for Jharkhand
UNION HOME Minister P Chidambaram has
announced that the `770 crore grant would
be released as part of the Integrated Action
Plan (IAP) to complete development activi-
ties in Naxal-hit districts in this fiscal year.
Chidambaram said all of the districts trou-
thesundayleader.lk
task of protecting defence
offices and vital strategic
installations, will expand by
more than 30 per cent before
2015. In the next four years,
the Defence Security Corps
plans to induct 330 extra pla-
toons of around 30 men each
with the new recruits. By and
large, Army personnel who

bled by Naxal violence would be receiving
`55 crore for development activities under
the IAP scheme. He also pushed for the com-
plete consumption of IAP fund released ear-
lier by March-end.
retire at a very young age are
recruited by the DSC to pro-
vide them the prospect of re-
employment.

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

(21)
 Follow
us on

geopolitics
n DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY @geoindica
geopolitics
DEF BIZ
BOFORS
AFFAIR
Their turbulent past notwithstanding, the
quality and effectiveness of the howitzer
guns have never been questioned. That is
why India requires them but would like to
produce them indigenously

baesystems.com
DEF BIZ
Decisive IAF deals cleared
Pilatus
TWO CRITICAL defence deals, val-
ued at over `5,000 crore, have been
reportedly cleared. The deal in-
volves the acquisition of 75 Swiss
Pilatus turbo-prop trainer aircraft
and 450 French missiles. The mis-
siles are for the Mirage-2000 multi-
role fighters. The Pilatus PC-7 basic
trainers are essential for the Indian
Air Force as 114 of the force’s pis-
ton-engine HPT-32 Deepak aircraft
have been on the ground since Au-
gust 2009 because of recurring en-
gine failures. 123 British Hawk
Advanced Jet Trainers (AJTs) are
being inducted into the India Air
Force for advanced combat train-
ing in a deal worth around `16,000
crore. The deal for nearly 450
New leadership at
Thales India
ERIC LENSEIGNE
has taken over as
the Country
Director and Man-
aging Director of
Thales India Pri-
vate Limited. He
Thales
has more than 23
years of experi-
Eric Lenseigne ence in Interna-
tional Business and Market Develop-
ment in Northern Europe, Russia,
Middle East and Asia. He started his
career with the Alcatel Group and rose
to become Vice-President, Public and
Regulatory Affairs at Alcatel-Lucent
prior to joining the Thales Group in
2008. Before moving to India, Len-
seigne was the Thales Group Country
Director, Nordic and Baltic States and
Managing Director of Thales Sverige
based out of Stockholm, Sweden.
www.geopolitics.in
g
Hiccups in India’s
submarine plan
defenseindustrydaily.com
MICA fire-and-forget all-weather
systems with French company
MBDA has been in the offing for
some time too. It came into being ‘PROJECT-75 INDIA’ to acquire six new-gen-
in conjunction with the `10,947- eration stealth submarines will take another
crore programme for the upgrada- two-three years to get finalised. The request for
tion of 51 Indian Mirage-2000 multi proposal (RFP) for P-75I to manufacture six
role fighters with French firms Das- submarines with international collaboration for
sault Aviation and Thales. Two over `50,000 crore, “is still several months
fighters are being sent to France in away”. The Navy is faced with the alarming
January 2012 for upgradation and prospect of getting the P-75I boats much be-
the rest of the fighters will be mod- yond 2020. The testimony of the committee, led
ernised in India by Hindustan by technocrat V Krishnamurthy, to assess the
Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) with new infrastructure and capabilities in private ship-
weapon delivery and precision-tar- yards such as L&T, Pipavav and ABG to con-
geting systems electronic warfare struct submarines, will now be presented to the
suites helmet-mounted displays, Defence Acquisitions Council (DAC) chaired by
new avionics, radars, mission com- Defence Minister AK Antony and the RFP is ex-
puters and glass cockpits. pected to be issued only by mid-2012.
RFI out for 3-D naval radar
A REQUEST for Information (RFI) for 3-
D radars to enhance the observation ca-
management systems in use by the Indi-
an Navy. Incidentally, the Defence Re-
pacity of warships has been issued by the search and Development Organisation
Indian Navy. These new 3-D radars are to has already created 3-D radar systems.
be installed on surface vessels with a The DRDO’s successful Central Acquisi-
gross weight of more than 3000 tonnes to tion Radar (CAR) is for use with Akash
afford 360-degree inspection to spot in- surface-to-air missiles and is capable of
coming anti-ship missiles, aircraft, and tracking 150 targets. From the CAR, two
helicopters. The radar must track in three variants have been developed. Rohini is
dimensions — range, height and direction the Indian Air Force vari-
— by design and be in tune with ant and the Revathi
sophisticated combat is for the Indian
Navy. Another vari-
ant, known as the 3-
D Tactical Control
Radar, is being produced
for the army. There have
been media reports about the
Indian Air Force discussing air-
baesystems.com
borne surveillance and reconnaissance
radars with Raytheon. These would be
used along India’s borders to safeguard
our skies against aerial intrusion and to
pry into enemy airspace.
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December 2011
 g
Tender for Coast Guard choppers out Bids invited
A GLOBAL tender valued at over $200 million has for HAL IPO
been sent out by the Indian Coast Guard to acquire
16 light helicopters to be set up on its ships to avert
any repeat of the Mumbai attacks. The Request for
Proposal (RFP) has been sent to three companies:
Eurocopter, AgustaWestland and Sikorsky. The chop-
per manufacturers have been asked to submit their
bids by the end of December. Eurocopter is prepar-
ing to field its twin-engined Panther helicopter. The THE PROCESS for the disin-
Coast Guard wants these choppers to be outfitted vestment in Hindustan Aero-
with surveillance devices to perform search-and-res- nautics Ltd (HAL) has begun.
PIB

cue roles in coastal areas, according to the RFP. The Government of India has
invited proposals from mer-
chant bankers for supervi-
Mahindra, Telephonics Corp form joint venture sion of the Initial Public Offer
(IPO) of Ministry of Defence-
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA and Telephonics owned HAL. With this IPO,
Corporation, a US-based designer, developer and the government is proposing
manufacturer of information and communication to dilute its stake in HAL by
solutions, have signed a memorandum of under- 10 per cent. HAL is expected
standing (MoU) to form a joint venture ( JV ) to to appoint four bankers —
manufacture radars and surveillance and commu- two domestic and two inter-
nication systems for the Indian defence forces. national ones, according to
The JV will provide systems for air traffic manage- reports — for the sale of 10
ment services, homeland security, surveillance per cent government stake.
systems, Identifying Friend and Foe (IFF) equip- At present, the government
ment and radars for defence and civilian applica- has a 100 per cent stake in
Mahindra

tions. A plant will be set up to manufacture and HAL. The government is also
service airborne radar systems that are in service considering the issue of
Brig Khutub Hai Joseph Battaglia with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. bonus shares to investors.

114 Light Combat Choppers DRDO Chief on MoD panel for

from HAL howitzers
THE INDIAN Army’s
proposal to procure
howitzers from the Unit-
ed States is expected to
get a thrust with the
Defence Ministry getting
DRDO chief VK Saraswat
for counsel on the acqui-
sition. The deal had pre-
viously become delayed
PIB

after the Ministry had

THE INDIAN Army has made a decision to introduce at least misgivings following the
114 Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) developed by Hindustan Army’s testimony that
Aeronautics Limited (HAL) which made its first flight in March the M-777 ultra-light
2010. The Indian Army is looking to augment its heli-borne howitzers would not ful-
baesystems.com

firepower and a senior officer of the Army Aviation Corps is al- ly meet qualitative
ready overlooking the project. Simultaneously, the Army is also requirements. The com-
inducting weaponised Advance Light Helicopters (ALH), mittee led by Saraswat
known as Rudra, which is fitted with 20mm turret guns, 70mm will examine the trial
rockets and anti-tank-guided missiles (ATGMs). At present, the reports of the gun and
Army Aviation Corps has 250 helicopters and its workhorse suggest whether to go forward with the purchase. Whereas
Cheetahs and Chetaks are due for replacement. It is in this re- the Army has already expressed that the divergence from
gard that the induction of 197 Light Observation Helicopters desired specifications are not very significant, the ministry
from foreign vendors is at its final stage. has appointed the committee to get an independent view.

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

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DEF BIZ
w
Sho
r
i Ai
ba
Du
FRENCH PRESIDENT Nicolas Sarkozy’s
“diplomatic and political” efforts to win
the contract for the Rafale, Dassault fell
short of United Arab Emirates’ (UAE)
expectation. At the Dubai Air Show,
UAE’s officials announced that Das-
sault Aviation’s bid to supply 60 Rafale
warplanes was uncompetitive. General
Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al
Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi
and Deputy Supreme Commander of
the UAE armed forces, while touring
PIB
Pak offers discounted JF-17 fighter jet
JF-17 THUNDER (Joint Fighter-17)
also designated as FC-17 Xiaolong
(Fighter China-17 Fierce Dragon)
combat aircraft, the joint produc-
tion of China and Pakistan made its
Middle East flight debut at the
Dubai Air Show 2011. Three of these
aircraft were exhibited at the show.
One of them performed while two
were for static display. The jet is on
offer with aggressive discounts to
compete with frontline fighters. The
Sino-Pakistani joint venture is offer-
jf-17.com
www.geopolitics.in
g
Rafale loses UAE bid
the Dubai Air Show, said, “Thanks to
French President Sarkozy, France could
not have done more diplomatically or
politically to secure the Rafale deal.
Bilateral relations have never been
stronger and his constant personal
intervention in this process has sus-
tained Dassault at the forefront of our
considerations. Regrettably, Dassault
seems unaware that all the diplomatic
and political will in the world cannot
overcome uncompetitive and unwork-
able commercial terms.” This has
ing three JF-17s for the price of one
F-16, although it is not clear which
version of the F-16 is being referred
to. The JF-17 is a light-weight multi-
role combat aircraft with the capa-
bility for air-to-air interception and
close-ground attack. On November
Militaryphotos.net
14, a JF-17 on a routine mission
crashed in Attock, Pakistan. The
crash happened just a day after
Dubai Air Show, eclipsing its export
prospects. This is the aircraft’s first
reported crash.
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opened the prospect for American and
European fighters for the UAE bid. The
UAE reportedly asked Eurofighter for
data on the Typhoon, when officials
met in Abu Dhabi in October, the Euro-
pean consortium announced at the air
show. Dassault has been pitching for
this order for the last three years. This
would leave the French firm with only a
single customer: the French military.
Boeing has reportedly offered both the
F-15 Strike Eagle and F/A-18 Super
Hornet to the UAE.
Emirati group introduces
armed drone
ADCOM SYSTEMS, an Emirati company, has
launched an armed drone called the United 40
at the Dubai Air Show. The Medium Altitude
Long Endurance (MALE) plane will undergo
testing in early December and is expected to
be available to customers by February 2012.
The Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehice (UCAV)
can carry eight 60-kilometre range “Nemrod”
missiles in its fuselage. These missiles have
also been developed by Adcom and will be
tested in January 2012. Adcom Systems, a con-
sortium of 37 firms, chiefly creates drones used
for training air force. The company also said
that the technology for the United 40 was
developed by them. The United 40 took five
years to develop and with a wingspan of 17.5
metres, can carry a maximum payload of 400
kilogrammes and has a fuel capacity of 300
litres, of which 260 litres are in the wings.
May 2011
December 2010
 TECH SCAN
Agni-IV missile
test fired
INDIA TESTED its nuclear-capable
surface-to-surface Agni-IV missile
from a facility in Orissa. With a
strike range of 3,500-km, thrilled
Defence Scientists have proclaimed
that the Agni-IV would add “fantas-
tic deterrence” to the country’s
nuclear weapons programme. It
tested for a 3,000-km range —
though the missile can easily go up
to 3,500 km — from a road-mobile
launcher at Wheeler’s Island off the
Orissa coast last month. Lighter
than Agni-II and Agni-III, Agni-IV is
a completely fresh missile with two
stages of solid propulsion and a
payload with re-entry heat shield.
There will be more tests launches of
the Agni-IV before it is deemed fit
for serial production induction.
According to a DRDO Scientist:
“The missile, with a payload
reduced to 800-kg from 1,000-kg,
followed its trajectory, attained a
height of about 900-km and reached
the pre-designated target in Bay of
Bengal with very high level of accu-
racy after a 20-minute flight. Much
lighter in weight than Agni-II and
Agni-III, Agni-IV is an entirely new
missile with two stages of solid
propulsion and a payload with re-
entry heat shield. All mission objec-
tives were fully met. All systems
functioned perfectly till the end
starwars.wikia.com
encountering re-entry temperatures
of over 3,000-degree Celsius.”
After introducing the Pak-specif-
ic Agni-I (700-km) and Agni-II (over
2,000-km) missiles, the Army is on
its way to operationalise the 3,500-
km Agni-III following conclusion of
its developmental and pre-induc-
tion trials last year.
anmm.wordpress.com
PIB
www.geopolitics.in
g
DRDO wins Thomson Reuters Innovation Award
IN RECOGNITION of its work in the field of
science and technology, India’s premier
military weapons developer, the Defence
Research and Development Organisation
(DRDO), was awarded the Thomson
Reuters India Innovation Award for 2011.
The award was presented to DRDO by Min-
ister of State for Science and Technology
Ashwani Kumar at an event organised by
Thomson Reuters and the Confederation of
Indian Industry. The defence research
PIB
agency won the award in the “Hi-tech Aca-
demic and Government Institution” cate- AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE: KD Nayak,
gory. The winner was adjudged on the basis Chief Controller (R&D) (left), receives the
of size of patent portfolio, success rate, award on behalf of DRDO from Ashwani
extent of globalisation and influence of Kumar, Minister of State for Science &
innovation as the analytical parameters. Technology, Earth Sciences & Planning.
E-bomb to disorient foes
INDIAN ARMED forces will soon be equipped with an ‘electromagnetic bomb’ (e-bomb),
under development by Terminal Ballistic and Research Laboratory (TBRL), one of the top
defence research and development laboratories in the country. The e-bomb is touted as
the most dangerous weapon after nuclear weaponry and the TBRL is expected to con-
clude the research and development (R&D) work on the project in the 12th plan period.
The lone ballistic laboratory of Defence Research and Development Organisation
(DRDO), TBRL has built up the expertise and is operationalising a weapon, which
would be capable of neu-
tralising the command,
control and communica-
tion systems of the enemy.
TBRL Director, Dr Manjit
Singh has said that such
weapons would be capa-
ble of causing massive
destruction, without
affecting humans. The
technology of ‘e-bomb’
would be based on explo-
sive-driven high-energy
pulse power technology.
R&DE to develop sonar domes for naval warships
THE RESEARCH and Development Establish-
ment (R&DE) at Dighi near Pune is working on a
mission to create the country’s first home-grown
glass fibre composite sonar domes. The sonar
will be specially made for the Indian Navy’s 15
Alpha-class warships. Located on the hulls of
submarines and surface ships, sonar domes are
an essential constituent that house electronic
equipment used for detection, navigation, and
ranging. They are extremely handy for anti-sub-
marine warfare. Till now, India has been import-
ing its sonar domes from Germany. Only a small
number of nations around the globe have the
proficiency to construct this key element. The
venture is also expected to go a long way in
decreasing expenses on account of imports.
December 2011
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 g
GEOPOLITICS
DEFBIZ
THE MOUNT OF THE
WARRIORS
The Indian Army’s grand Future Infantry Combat Vehicle project is an ambitious attempt at
modernising the mechanised infantry. But, can it avoid the pitfalls that have dogged the artillery
modernisation plans, asks ROHIT SRIVASTAVA
T
he modernisation of Indian
infantry has been a long time in
the offing. Unlike its sister serv-
ices, like the Navy and the Air
Force which have undergone
huge modernisation plans, the Indian
Army has had very few substantial
upgrades. The mechanised force, which
forms the cutting-edge of the Army, is the
only branch which has undergone some
modernisation with the induction of the
Arjun and the T-90 tanks.
www.geopolitics.in
That is the reason why the Future
Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV ) pro-
gramme is considered a milestone in the
history of Indian defence acquisition. The
Indian Army is planning to replace its
BMP-II Armoured Personnel Carriers
(APC) with 2600 futuristic Infantry Com-
bat Vehicles (ICVs).
The FICV programme is going to be the
first acquisition by the Indian armed
forces under the ‘Make India’ procedure
of the Defence Procurement Policy (DPP)
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2008. The rapid modernisation of the
Indian armed forces has created numer-
ous avenues for industry to offer suitable
solutions. Under intense pressure from
the industry, the Ministry of Defence
(MoD) finally agreed to the ‘Make India’
procedure in DPP 2008.
The ‘Make India’ procedure
The DPP 2008 states, “The resurgence of
the Indian industry today offers scope for
their greater involvement in the Defence
December 2011

sector, due to availability of requisite skill
and infrastructure for undertaking
defence production and even research
and development in some fields. The pri-
vate sector can today harness the avail-
able expertise of the management, scien-
tific and technological skills and also
raise resources for investment in research
and development, towards achieving our
goal of self-reliance in the defence pre-
paredness of the country.”
DPP 2008 further says, “The report of
the Kelkar Committee on review of the
Defence Procurement Procedure had
recommended an integrated approach
involving users, the Ministry of Defence
and the industry in the ‘Make Indian’
procedure.”
Explaining the rationale behind the
‘Make Indian’ procedure, DPP says: “The
aim of this procedure is to ensure Indige-
nous Research, Design, Development and
Production of capabilities sought by the
Armed Forces in the prescribed time-
frame, while optimally utilising the
potential of Indian industry. In addition,
it would also achieve self reliance in
Defence Equipment.”
MV Kotwal, who is member of the L&T
www.geopolitics.in
g
DEFBIZ
THE EXPRESSION
OF INTEREST WAS
ISSUED TO TATA
MOTORS, L&T,
MAHINDRA AND
ORDNANCE
FACTORY BOARD
board and President — Heavy Engineer-
ing, said: “FICV is among the first major
programmes announced by the govern-
ment classified as in the ‘Make-India’ cat-
egory. This is certainly a welcome devel-
opment as seen from our perspective.
This will give us an opportunity, if select-
ed, to contribute significantly in develop-
ing a ‘state-of-the-art’ system for the
defence services. This is also a clear indi-
cator of the fact that, although long over-
due, the government has finally started
acting on the policy of involving the pri-
vate sector in a bigger way.
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baesystems.com
THE NORDIC CONTENDER: Originally
designed by Swedish company Hagglunds,
the CV-90 is now made by BAE Systems
“The programme has the potential of
combining the best of world-class tech-
nologies developed globally with the
skills & talent available within the coun-
try to not only deliver a futuristic system
but also provide life-cycle support indige-
nously. We have selected partners who, in
our opinion, will deliver the best value in
terms of technologies and cost. A very
large portion of work, including design of
the system, will be carried out internally.
It is premature to specify the names of
partners at this stage.”
The ‘Make India Procedure’ has creat-
ed an environment where the Indian
defence firms can utilise their core com-
petence to deliver indigenous solutions
to the defence requirements while work-
ing with the end-user.
Being a complex high-end system, the
FICV will bring with it enormous expert-
ise to the local industry. The technology
will also be spread out across the small
and medium-scale industry through the
supply chain. This category requires 50
per cent indeginisation of technology.
The FICV programme
In October 2008, an MoD team visited
December 2011

Sonaz
various companies
as part of a feasibility
study, to assess whether Indi-
an companies were capable of handling
the FICV programme. The team was look-
ing for the manufacturing, design, inte-
gration and production capabilities of
possible vendors.
As per industry sources, the Expression
of Interest (EoI) was issued to four Indian
companies, namely, Tata Motors, Larsen
and Toubro (L&T), Mahindra Defence
Systems and Ordinance Factory Board
(OFB), in May 2010. The companies sub-
mitted their responses by October 2010.
As per the plan, the shortlisting of two
vendors was expected by April 2011, but it
is now expected by December 2011 or
January 2012.
Indian firms have teamed up with for-
eign manufacturers for this project.
Mahindra has joined hands with BAE Sys-
tems while L&T is collaborating with
numerous small firms and Tata Motors
and Rheinmetall have come together.
BAE Systems has prior experience of
developing and producing infantry
combat vehicles (ICV ) like the CV90,
while Rheinmetall produces the Puma
ICV. OFB has prior experience of manu-
facturing the BMP II, which the FICV is
supposed to replace. The competition is
going to be very tough. OFB has one
important trump card in the form of the
now idle Ordnance Factory at Medak,
where the BMP IIs were manufactured.
Debasis Ray, Head of PR at Tata Motors,
www.geopolitics.in
g
DEFBIZ
said: “Tata Motors has bid
for the FICV programme as a
prime contractor, with technology
tie-ups with various OEMs for various
systems and equipment. One of them is
Rheinmetall Land Systems (RLS), Dussel-
dorf. Tata Motors and RLS have made a
number of joint presentations to the Indi-
an Army and the Ministry of Defence and
issues that you refer to did not come up.
Tata Motors does not have any relation-
ship with Rheinmetall Air Defence (RAD),
Zurich, who, we understand through
media reports, has been named in some
CBI documents.”
The EoI is an operational document
that underlines the requirement of serv-
ice. The EoI of the FICV provides details
of the capabilities that the Army is look-
ing for in its next-generation combat
vehicle for the contingencies of the next
two decades at least. The BMP II, the
current armoured carrier, which India
has, is of 1980s vintage and it cannot be
upgraded any more to meet tomorrow’s
requirements.
As per the EoI, the mandatory require-
ment of the FICV covers all possible
capabilities that Indian Army aspires for
in its ICVs. The combat vehicle must
have space for seven soldiers in full battle
load along with three crewmen. The
vehicle must have an active-protection
system (APS) for early warning against
threats such as anti-tank missiles, rocket-
propelled grenades, mortars, etc. The
active protection system must be capa-
ble of launching remedial measures
automatically, which include chaff,
(30)
TEUTONIC KNIGHT: The Puma is made
by Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall
Landsysteme
smoke, etc, to deflect or confuse threats
by interfering with the sensor system of
the incoming missiles.
The EoI mentions that the FICV
should have an automatic cannon sys-
tem, although it doesn’t mention the
cannon’s calibre. The vehicle must be
equipped with the third-generation anti-
tank guided missiles (ATGMs). At pres-
ent, Indian forces use second-generation
ATGMs and, therefore, the FICV will have
the latest ATGM from a third vendor.
FICVs will also have to be capable of
amphibious tasks.
These vehicles are expected to be in
service from the year 2020 through to
2060. Companies have been asked to sub-
mit separate proposals for the wheeled
and tracked versions. The two systems are
required to use common parts for cheap
production and hassle-free maintenance.
As per industry sources, whenever the
commercial proposal will be released, it
will be for the wheeled version only, but
the Army is also interested in the tracked
version and, therefore, an additional pro-
posal for a tracked version will be submit-
ted. Around 20 per cent of the total num-
ber could be for tracked variants. A sub-
stantial part of India’s border is in the
desert where movement of wheeled vehi-
cles is a problem.
Tracked vehicles are best suited for
desert manoeuvres because the per-
square-inch weight is much less than that
December 2011

of wheeled vehi-
cles, as the weight
gets equally distrib-
uted across the track.
Industry sources suggest that a modu-
lar design has been called for. The elec-
tronics will have to be flexible and inte-
gration-friendly, as the Indian Army is in
pursuit of the Battlefield Management
System and will soon shift to a net-centric
mode. Vendors’ prototypes should be
able to integrate with both these future
systems with ease.
The Integrated Project Management
Team (IPMT), which is headed by a two-
star General from the Directorate General
of Mechanised Forces, is evaluating the
responses submitted by the four develop-
ing agencies. As per our sources, the
IPMT has struck down the OFB proposal
on the ground of the project being
incomplete and submitted its report in
October 2011. The final shortlisting of the
two vendors by the Defence Production
Board, which will develop prototypes for
user trials, is expected by December 2011
or January 2012.
Going by the current timeline, the
project is late by nine-months, and if the
delay continues, it will take another four
to five months for the signing of the
development contract. The two shortlist-
ed companies can think of receiving their
share of development funds by May 2012
and the project will take another two to
three years in developing a prototype.
The MoD will fund 80 per cent of the pro-
totype development cost and the rest of
the 20 per cent will be funded by the
developing firm.
www.geopolitics.in
g
DEFBIZ
A senior executive of one of
the contenders informed
Geopolitics, “We have invested `50
crore by now and this will not take
less than six more months for shortlist-
ing. We are already nine months late and
we are answerable to our share holders.
We have to fight for every penny for any
future investments in the project.”
Till the time of going to the press
Mahindra Defence Systems had not
responded to our e-mail request for a
perspective on the programme.
Nevertheless, the industry is upbeat
about the project. The general impres-
sion is that the windfall for the industry is
going to be huge. This project is going to
create huge opportunities for Tier 2 and
Tier 3 industries. The sheer volume of the
business is expected to surpass all previ-
ous deals. At present, the pricing is com-
ing to around `2-13 crore for the vehicle
and with the ATGM it is expected to
reach the `15-16-crore mark. According
to a source in the industry, the total cost
plus the yearly inflation for the project
duration is going to reach around
`65,000 crores.
The OFB is also going to get a share of
around 30 per cent of the total vehicles
for manufacturing. This is just to keep the
OFB busy in case it loses the contract.
Sources believe that this indicates that
the OFB will not get the contract.
Government sources believe: “Some
companies might be actually fielding a
different version of the foreign collabora-
tors infantry carriers. If this turns out to
(31)
PIB
DUE FOR REPLACEMENT: Derived from
the BMP-II, Sarath is the vehicle the Army
wants to replace in favour of the FICV
be true, then the whole purpose of the
‘Make India’ initiative will be defeated”.
But contenders are also not very happy
with the inclusion of Rheinmetall in the
bid with Tata, as the CBI had recom-
mended it for blacklisting. Contenders
believe that in case the government
chooses Tata and a contender chooses to
go to court, then the deal might get
delayed, and this will have serious impli-
cations on the rest of the contenders and
Indian Army’s induction plans.
Sources in government believe: “This is
the first ‘Make India’ project which is
going through and the aim is not to mud-
dle it up. This is going to boost the
defence industry and by getting compa-
nies with a tarnished image what good
are we going to do? We must keep in mind
the problems we are facing in the artillery
acquisition deal.”
As usual, Defence Ministry spokesman
had a deadly silence to offer when asked
through e-mail for his reaction on the
programme.
If all goes well, the prototype should be
ready for field trials by 2015. After the tri-
als, production will take another couple
of years to start, so we can expect the
much-vaunted FICV project to be ready
by at least 2018.
December 2011
 g
GEOPOLITICS
INTERVIEW

END-TO-END SECURITY SOLUTIONS

Mistral Solutions has brought in a virtual revolution in the field of defence electronics with
an array of products for telemetry, avionics, early warning system and electronic warfare.
ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoke to Chairman and Co-Founder ANEES AHMED about the
pioneering equipment being introduced by his company

Tell us about how and when you entered agencies. We are not an IT company, but a division works along with the silicon
into this business? technology solutions company. Mistral’s semiconductor manufacturers on their
Mistral has been in the business of Product Engineering Services (PES) new chips being developed. By the time
defence electronics and embedded solu-
BLAZING THE TRAIL: Mistral Chairman and Co-Founder Anees Ahmed at the console of
tions for 14 years, from its establishment
one his firm’s state-of-the-art products
in 1997. We are headquartered in Ben-
galuru and have offices in the United
States (Santa Clara and Dallas), Hyder-
abad and Delhi. Defence electronics is
our key focus. Last year, we set up a
homeland security solutions division to
cater to the homeland security require-
ments in India. Given our experience and
expertise in the defence solutions mar-
ket, our foray was a strategic move in a
growing homeland security market. Cur-
rently, Mistral offers customised solu-
tions for Mass Transit Security, Citizen
Security, Critical Infrastructure Protec-
tion, Mobile C4ISR platforms and also
our own unique wireless IP cameras.

What are your main offerings in defence

and homeland security solutions?
Mistral focuses on three domains: Prod-
uct Engineering Services, Defence Solu-
tions and Homeland Security. In the
defence domain, we deal primarily with
Indian defence firms such as the
Defence Research Development Organi-
sation (DRDO) laboratories and are
involved in many defence programmes
including defence electronics, telemetry,
avionics, early warning systems, elec-
tronic warfare and radar signal process-
ing, among others.
Mistral’s Homeland Security division
offers ready-to-deploy, proven high-tech-
nology security solutions for strategic and
H C Tiwari

tactical requirements for Public Sector

Undertakings (PSUs), paramilitary forces,
law-enforcement and government

(32)
www.geopolitics.in

the new silicon semiconductor hits the
market, the team at Mistral brings out the
development platforms for customers to
bring up their products. We offer design
services and reference designs for com-
panies across domains like consumer
electronics, industrial, automotive and
telecom. The PES team has worked on
various high-technology futuristic elec-
tronic gadgets.
So Mistral operates in a broad spectrum
of technologies. But what is your area of
core competence?
Our core competence is our system engi-
neering services that include design of
electronic hardware and embedded soft-
ware. Our defence electronics have gone
into most of the radar programmes in
the last few years in India, such as flight
location, battle field location radar,
weapon locating radar, airborne radar,
Airborne Warning and Control System
(AWACS) systems, and the submarine
programme that involves a lot of signal
g
INTERVIEW
processing. Mistral has also been
involved in the laser guidance and
telemetry of missile systems. A single
module, such as our data acquisition
cards, can be a part of any sub-system
such as signal processing, data process-
ing or laser guidance. We have success-
fully completed many design service
projects over the past 14 years.
You were one of the most prominent
Indian firms at INDESEC Expo 2011.
How was your experience?
We were focusing mainly on our Home-
land Security division in INDESEC 2011.
We were showcasing our solutions,
which could be ideally suited for the
police, paramilitary forces and Ministry
of Home Affairs (MHA). Our solutions are
relevant to the Indian homeland security
market and targets domains such as crit-
ical infrastructure protection, citizen
security (Dial-100 and Safe City) and
mass transit.
You have indigenously developed a
C4ISR (Command, Control, Communi-
cations, Computers, Intelligence, Sur-
veillance and Reconnaissance) system.
Tell us a bit more about it.
Our C4ISR Platforms are integrated solu-
tions, with our command and control
module integrated into the systems used
by different forces such as police, fire,
ambulance, hospitals, border and coastal
surveillance, etc. With this integrated
platform, all forces will be able to work
and communicate with each other in
case of an emergency situation. As this
integration of systems is possible with
the existing infrastructure, the law and
order forces in our country will be able to
upgrade the infrastructure to meet the
security requirements in a quicker and
more efficient manner.
The system engineering work for our
C4ISR platforms is done in India now
but was designed and developed in
Spain. The command & control modules
have been deployed in Europe and Mid-
dle East, among other places. We have
started deploying them in India now.
Some of the state government depart-
ments such as Karnataka and Gujarat
have already deployed our command
and control solutions. We are expecting
to add around eight states more by the
year-end.
Our systems are very easy to use with
minimal training required for the per-
sonnel operating the system. We have
(33)
very high engineering capability with
over three hundred engineers employed
with us. We have a vast experience in cut-
ting-edge legacy designing. Our products
are used by paramilitary forces and
police in India. Mistral has designed
wearable camera and microphone,
which can transmit video and audio live
to headquarters or back office. We have
also designed wearable computers with
15-inch screens that work on voice com-
mands. With the use of these wearable
computers, police and paramilitary per-
sonnel can access information that is
located on a server some distance away.
Our solutions are vendor-friendly;
products from different vendors can be
integrated with our solution to develop a
fully integrated security ecosystem.
Critical infrastructure solutions have
become major requirements for the
nation, especially after 26/11. Tell us
about your offerings in this regard.
Critical infrastructure includes electric
power plants, dams, oil refineries, reser-
voirs, key establishments such as govern-
ment offices, industries, technology
parks and heritage and religious sites.
Our critical infrastructure solutions
called CIPro, are complete solutions with
command control and communication
modules, mobile vehicle, perimeter
security, cameras, motion sensors, radar,
sonar and access control, integrated on a
single platform. These solutions are cus-
tomised based on customer require-
ments and the infrastructure to be
secured. Private industries have
responded positively to our CIPro solu-
tions and we have started deployment in
one of the largest ports in Gujarat.
Finally, tell us about your future plan
and how you wish to see yourself in this
emerging market.
Homeland security is going to be one of
the fastest-growing markets in India.
There are not too many players at pres-
ent in India. We are targeting revenues to
the tune of `100 crore coming from our
homeland security business division in a
couple of years. We have signed Memo-
randums of Understanding (MoUs) with
large defence contracts for the offset
business. We expect projects to come by
around 2013-14 in a big way. Being a
focused company, Research and Devel-
opment (R&D) work undertaken in Mis-
tral is done based on a customer’s
requirements.
December 2011
 g
GEOPOLITICS
FOCUS

RESURRECTING A LEGEND: The FH-77

is back for a second innings with the
Indian Army, this time in a new avatar
with the assistance of BAE Systems

BOFORS
TO THE
RESCUE… AGAIN!
The Bofors scandal caused a virtual drought in the procurement of
long-range artillery systems, but after repeated failures at looking for
alternatives, the Indian Army, reports ROHIT SRIVASTAVA, might
just get a fresh batch of the same guns — this time made in India

(34)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

D
uring the Kargil War, the
155mm/39 calibre FH 77 Bo2
towed howitzer from Bofors
was crucial in dislodging the
intruders perched on top of
the strategic heights. The excellent range
and accuracy of the Bofors gun helped
win the war for India and the much-
maligned Bofors won hearts. Since then,
many in India have been regretting the
mess that created one of the best defence
deals struck in the nation.
The deal got mired in scandals before
the completion of the full conditions of
the contract which included license pro-
duction with full transfer of technology.
Since the Bofors scandal, India has not
been able to procure any new artillery
gun system.
After two decades of searching, India
might just end up manufacturing the
same Bofors guns. It seems the Ordnance
Factory Board (OFB) had the blueprints
www.geopolitics.in
g
FOCUS
of these guns since the 1980s, but no one
was aware of it! After years of failed trials
and scuttled request for proposals, the
Ministry of Defence (MoD) seems to have
woken up to this fact and decided to get
the FH 77 Bo2 guns manufactured by the
OFB. After discussions with the Army and
the OFB, the MoD has decided to give the
go-ahead to the OFB to manufacture six
39 calibre guns.
According to sources, the Army is
expected to buy 414 artillery guns of 39
calibre. Though the Army’s Request for
Proposal (RFP) for towed guns had speci-
fied 1580 guns, the current proposal
states that that the Army has the option
for 1000 more guns after the completion
of the order for 414 guns.
The guns will be manufactured by the
OFB, which will be the prime contractor
and it is expected that Defence Land Sys-
tems India, a joint venture between
Mahindra and BAE Systems, will be
(35)
supporting them if required. The cost of
the 414 guns is expected to touch $1.5 bil-
lion. The OFB-manufactured gun is
expected to be ready by June 2013 for
field trials. The OFB will also manufacture
a 45 calibre version of the 155/39 calibre
gun but sources suggest that the Army is
interested in the 39 calibre classic version
only. Army gunners swear by this gun and
the performance of the guns in Kargil is
still fresh in their memory.
It is worth mentioning that in the past
the OFB had also undertaken the upgra-
dation of the M46 130 mm field artillery
gun to 155 mm. According to the OFB, the
range of the gun increased to 39 kilome-
tres from 30 km after the upgrade. The
project also gave OFB the confidence to
manufacture the 155 calibre guns. The
whole debate about artillery guns boils
down to the calibre of the gun, which is
actually the length of the barrel of the gun
divided by the diameter of the ammuni-
tion. The larger the caliber, the longer is
the range.
The 39 calibre gun has a range of
around 35 kilometres and the 45 calibre
gun has a range of 37-38 kilometres. The
52 calibre gun, which India has asked in
all its RFPs as a standard calibre, has a
range of 40 kilometres. If the current
plans succeed, then the maximum calibre
of guns in the Indian armoury will be 45
calibre. The difference in the range from
the requested 52 calibre will be around 3
baesystems.com
kilometres. This is not a very significant
difference as no gun operates at its maxi-
mum range during war. This is a compro-
mise India will have to bear with to
(continued on page 39)
December 2011
 g
FOCUS

WANTED: CORRUPTION-FREE
DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS
In spite of several revisions to promote transparency and competition since its promulgation
in 2002, the Defence Procurement Procedure has not eased the supply of essential weaponry
and armaments to the armed forces. MRINAL SUMAN suggests a way out

I
n August 2011, Defence Minister AK its promulgation in 2002 and a number Further, it has been made mandatory
Antony assured the Rajya Sabha that of provisions have been introduced to to obtain realistic inputs as regards for-
India’s Defence Procurement Proce- promote transparency and competition. mulation of practical parameters, costing
dure “contains stringent provisions Future needs of the armed forces are to and technology from the industry by
aimed at ensuring the highest degree of be shared with the industry through a issuing RFI to maximum manufacturers.
probity, public accountability and trans- public version of perspective document For that, appropriate publicity (through
parency”. In support of his assertion, he outlining the technology perspective advertisements and website) has to be
drew attention to three facets: mandato- and capability road map covering a peri- given to all proposed procurements,
ry signing of Pre-Contract Integrity Pact od of 15 years. albeit keeping security concerns in mind.
in procurement cases of the estimated
value exceeding `100 crore; provisions SHORING UP THE HOME FRONT: File picture of Defence Minister AK Antony
prohibiting engagement of agents or use unveiling the Defence Production Policy, in January 2011 with the Minister of State for
of undue influence; and, compulsory Defence, MM Pallam Raju and the then Secretary, Defence Production, RK Singh
issuance of Request for Information
(RFI) to provide advance information
and encourage a wider vendor base.
International arms trade is charac-
terised by secrecy. It, therefore, lends
itself to malpractices. According to
Transparency International, the defence
trade appears in the top three sectors for
bribery and corruption (oil and major
infrastructure projects being the other
two). Worse, as per estimates of the US
government, while accounting for less
than 1 per cent of the international trade,
the arms trade accounts for almost 50
per cent of all kickbacks in the world.
The Indian defence procurement sys-
tem has been dogged by allegations of
irregularities. All major deals have drawn
flak for lack of transparency and financial
impropriety. Despite the Defence Minis-
ter’s own unblemished standing and his
repeated declarations of zero tolerance
for corruption, the environment contin-
ues to remain wary of the procurement
system. Many vendors remain convinced
that ‘speed money’ has become an inte-
gral feature of doing business with the
official machinery.

The Indian system

The Defence Procurement Procedure
PIB

(DPP) has undergone six revisions since

(36)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

As regards field trials, they have to be
conducted as per the methodology inti-
mated to vendors at the outset through
Request for Proposals (RFP). After each
stage of trials, all vendors have to be
debriefed in a common meeting regard-
ing the performance of their equip-
ment. All verbal communications are to
be confirmed to vendors in writing
within a week.
Results of technical evaluation with
reasons for disqualification have also
got to be intimated to all unsuccessful
vendors. For all proposals with indicated
value in excess of `300 crore, a Technical
Oversight Committee has to be consti-
tuted to confirm that the trials, trial
evaluations, compliance to Services
Qualitative Requirements (SQR) and
selection of vendors had been done
according to the prescribed procedures.
The Defence Minister had referred to
the introduction of Pre-Contract Integri-
ty Pact as a major measure to ensure
probity. DPP mandates that an Integrity
Pact be signed between the government
procurement agency and the bidder for
all defence procurements exceeding `
100 crore. Under the Integrity Pact, the
www.geopolitics.in
g
FOCUS
government promises that its func-
tionaries will not demand bribes while
the bidder promises not to offer any
bribe, commission or inducement to
any official. As can be seen, an Integrity
Pact is nothing more than a statement of
intent to refrain from malpractices.
Pledges mean little to the dishonest. It is
juvenile to believe that corrupt func-
tionaries who do not fear penal/discipli-
nary punishments would be deterred by
the moral code of Integrity Pact. It is an
over-hyped and a meaningless provi-
sion. As a matter of fact, Integrity Pact
provides a pretense to the deceitful.
Appointment of Independent Moni-
tors (IM) to oversee the implementation
of Integrity Pact is another much-over-
rated provision. Complaints received by
the government from the vendors are to
be referred to IM for comments/ enquiry.
It is for the government to take appropri-
ate action on the reports submitted by
IM. It cannot accept complaints directly
from aggrieved vendors. The role of IM is
thus limited to submitting reports on
complaints forwarded to it by the gov-
ernment. Neither does it have any inde-
pendent oversight powers nor can it
order prosecution for violation of IP.
A MEANINGLESS
PROVISION,
THE INTEGRITY
PACT ONLY
PROVIDES A
PRETENSE TO
THE DECEITFUL
Vulnerability to influences
The defence procurement process con-
sists of two stages: planning and acquisi-
tion. During the planning stage, inter-se
precedence accorded to the acquisition
proposals contained in the Services
Capital Acquisition Plan can be manipu-
lated subjectively. As resources are never
adequate to fund all proposals, any pro-
posal in which a favoured vendor is con-
fident of emerging successful can be
assigned higher priority. As regards the
acquisition stage, numerous opportuni-
ties are available to the insincere to
influence decisions unfairly. Some of the
common ones are as follows:-
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 While ensuring avoidance of a single-
vendor situation, parameters can be
formulated to favour a chosen ven-
dor, thereby eliminating genuine
competition.
 During field trials, parameters that
are descriptive in nature and are not
quantifiable can be viewed subjec-
tively with a view to play favourites.
 During quality assurance and main-
tainability tests, assessing officers can
be prevailed upon to act partisan in
their reports.
 Preparation of Staff Evaluation can be
skewed to favour a chosen vendor by
highlighting minor glitches of com-
peting equipment to rule them out.
 As determination of the lowest bidder
is a complex process more so in the
case of the Life Cycle Costing tech-
nique, Commercial Negotiation Com-
mittee has enough leeway to manipu-
late overall quote by subjective treat-
ment of various contributory factors
like basic cost, support equipment,
services, spare parts, warranty obliga-
tions and repair facilities.
 Once the commercial negotiations
are over, the complete case is sent to
the designated Competent Financial
Authority (CFA) for final sanction to
sign the contract. It is a critical stage
and viewed with trepidation by all
successful vendors. A corrupt CFA can
either abort the case or delay his
sanction till he is duly gratified by the
vendor concerned. It is considered to
be the biggest hurdle
 Although offsets carry enormous
financial repercussion, being
appendages to main contracts they
remain out of close scrutiny. Lack of
sincere appraisal, oversight and mon-
itoring provides ample opportunities
to dishonest vendors to make unfair
gains.
The way ahead
Keeping these vulnerabilities in the back-
ground, steps must be taken to ensure
probity in defence acquisitions. The gov-
ernment must display determination to
initiate radical reforms to insulate the
system from the dishonest influence of
the unscrupulous. The following meas-
ures will go a long way to impart neces-
sary credibility to the system:
 Need for separate trial agency: It is
essential that the trial agency be inde-
pendent of the authority that is
preparing the proposal and evolving
December 2011

baesystems.com
SIGHT FOR SORE EYES: India finally ordered the Hawk advanced jet trainer from BAE in 2004 after years of wrangling
qualitative requirements. The US
Army has an independent Army Test
and Evaluation Command responsi-
ble for developmental testing, inde-
pendent operational testing, inde-
pendent evaluations, assessments
and experiments of army equipment
to provide essential information to
the acquisition decision makers. Such
an arrangement ensures that no sin-
gle individual/entity can exercise
unhealthy influence on the process.
 Policy on employment of agents:
Although the Prime Minister has con-
ceded that middlemen cannot be
wished away and stressed the need to
regulate their functioning, the gov-
ernment does not know how to pro-
ceed in the matter. It has taken the
easy way out by banning employment
of middlemen, agents and intermedi-
aries. Middlemen are ubiquitous in all
trade transactions and it is well nigh
impossible to eliminate them. Where-
as open registration of middlemen
could facilitate oversight, the govern-
ment has driven them underground
by proscribing their employment,
thereby giving rise to suspicions
about their modus operandi. It is
essential that the policy be changed,
middlemen given due recognition
and their functioning regulated.
 Adoption of matrix: India should dis-
card the current highly flawed system
of formulating essential parameters
and adopt Performance Matrix System
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g
FOCUS
(PMS) that defines performance
parameters in the form of a range. The
lower end specifies minimum
inescapable requirement while the
upper end benchmarks maximum
acceptable limit and extra credit is
awarded as per pre-decided relative
weightage. By translating all parame-
ters into measurable, gradable and
comparable parameters, subjectivity
can be totally eliminated.
IT IS OF UTMOST
IMPORTANCE
THAT
ACQUISITION
STAFF BE OF
UNIMPEACHABLE
INTEGRITY
 Time-bound clearances: Although
DPP lays down broad guidelines for
the completion of different acquisition
activities, they are neither taken seri-
ously nor adhered to. It is essential to
enforce timelines strictly. Any func-
tionary who stalls the process or
delays case files on specious grounds
must always be viewed with suspicion
and proceeded against.
 Institution of effective oversight
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mechanism: India must do away with
IP and IM. They contribute little to
curbing malpractices. On the con-
trary, they give a false sense of com-
placency. An effective oversight
mechanism is absolutely indispensa-
ble. There should be a credible mech-
anism for handling of complaints and
redressal of grievances.
The shroud of secrecy breeds corrup-
tion in defence deals and transparency is
the best antidote to counter the malaise.
Whereas it is understandable that
national security concerns preclude
wide publicity of functional aspects of
equipment under procurement, exces-
sive stress on secrecy in the whole pro-
curement process is certainly not war-
ranted. The services must curb their
propensity to accord unduly high securi-
ty classification to procurement propos-
als. More importantly, instead of assign-
ing blanket security classification to a
case, every proposal can be split into
classified and unclassified components.
Finally, in addition to putting fool-
proof safeguards in place, acquisition
staff must be selected with care. A system
is as good as the people who operate it.
Therefore, it is of utmost importance that
acquisition staff be of unimpeachable
integrity and unblemished track record.
Diligent, meticulous and conscientious
functionaries are India’s best bet against
manipulations in defence deals.
(The author is a retired Major General)
December 2011

(continued from page 35)
replace its old guns and to increase its
long-range artillery from its limited num-
ber of 400 pieces to 1500.
As per military sources, the Army can
overcome the shortage in the range by
using better ammunition. Ammunition
can be specially designed to increase the
range by 10 per cent. A type of ammuni-
tion whose range the Indian Army is look-
ing forward to increasing is Charge 6
BMCS.
If all this goes according to the plan of
the ministry, then the need for any new
foreign gun will be over. The recent RFP
for the towed gun, where Elbit of Israel
and Nexter of France were the two con-
tenders, has faced scrutiny as Nexter had
not met the technical requirement of the
Army. The Indian Army had asked for a
155mm-52 calibre towed artillery gun.
The current RFP was issued in this Janu-
ary where BAE, the most-awaited con-
tender, didn’t participate. Industry
sources suggest that BAE was not happy
with lowering the qualitative require-
ments of the RFP which allowed other
substandard guns to participate.
It is worth mentioning that Israel’s
Elbit system doesn’t manufacture its
own guns; in fact, Soltam, an Israeli gun
baesystems.com
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g
FOCUS
manufacturer, has been acquired by
Elbit. Soltam, however, has been recom-
mended by the CBI for blacklisting.
With Nexter not qualifying, the pro-
curement will become a single-vendor
deal, which is not allowed under the cur-
rent defence procurement procedures.
THE STAR OF KARGIL: The updated
version of the legendary gun during trials
(39)
According to sources, Nexter has asked
for a two-year period to provide the gun
for trials while Elbit has asked a year’s
time. Our queries to these companies
did not receive any response.
A similar situation has emerged in the
procurement of 180 wheeled artillery
pieces of 155/ 52 calibre. The RFP for
wheeled artillery was cancelled last
month. The RFP was issued to many com-
panies in 2008, of which three were select-
ed after evaluation of proposals, namely,
Konstrukta, Rheinmetall and Samsung.
Samsung did not qualify and was sub-
sequently eliminated in 2009 and Rhein-
metall has not met the qualitative
requirements of the RFP. According to
reports, the guns fielded by the Rhein-
metall and Konstrukta are prototype
guns and not in service in their own
nations, namely Germany and the Czech
Republic respectively.
The sorry state of the gun-procure-
ment procedure continues but now all
hopes are pinned on the success of OFB
in manufacturing the FH 77 BO2 guns. If
the endeavour meets with success, the
artillery’s dry spell will come to an end
and India will be able to manufacture its
own artillery guns in large numbers.
December 2011
PERISCOPE
g
GEOPOLITICS

Sino-Indian Eco hurdle for Navy Army inducts

military exercises missile test BrahMos Block-II

chchindits.blogspot.com
topnews.in

PIB
INDIA AND CHINA are prepar- THE ENVIRONMENT Ministry has A NEW regiment of BrahMos supersonic
ing to renew their joint military thrown a spanner in the works for an cruise missiles has been introduced into
exercise with a fresh round in Indian Navy plan to test-fire missiles the Indian Army. The new regiment has
2012. This development comes from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. been equipped with a Block-II version of
after the two countries decided The Ministry is apparently concerned the missile, created to hit a specific target
to restart their bilateral military about the danger to the indigenous with a low radar cross-section in a clut-
exchanges a few months ago. species on the ecologically-sensitive tered environment.
The preparation for the new area of the islands. The Island is question The BrahMos is a precision strike
exercises will be undertaken — Tillanchang — is home to an endan- weapon with a 290-km strike range, which
during the next round of con- gered bird species, the Nicobar cruises at a supersonic speed in the range
sultative talks between the two Megapode. A panel of experts has told of 2.8 Mach. The next edition being readied
nations in December 2011, the Environment Ministry that the test- to be introduced into the Indian Army will
where a plan for bilateral firing of missiles will affect the lifecycle be the Block-III version, which will have a
exchanges and interaction will of the Nicobar Megapode. The issue “steep dive ability”, and will take out tar-
also be worked out. came to light after the Navy asked for au- gets hidden behind a mountain range, for
If the details of the exercises thorisation from the Environment Min- instance. The induction of an additional
are finalised then these would istry to make use of the forest land on the regiment of BrahMos missiles by the Indi-
be the first joint exercises island and set up temporary structures an Army to be set up in Arunachal Pradesh
between the two countries in for testing the accuracy of missiles fired to bolster the defences in the east has been
nearly four years. The first bilat- from submarines. endorsed by the government.
eral exercise or ‘Hand-in-Hand’
exercise, as they are called by
the two sides between the two
2012 deadline for Bhatinda airbase
Asian titans, was held in 2007 in station was bagged by Tata
Kunming in China. The second Power SED. The contract
was held in December 2008 at involves construction of new
Belgaum in Karnataka. runways, a new lighting sys-
The mutual exercises have tem and the installation of Air
not taken place since 2008 for a Traffic Control (ATC) systems.
variety of reasons including the American firm Raytheon
60th anniversary of the People’s will be installing the Auto Trac
Republic of China in October III systems as part of the ATC
2009. The bilateral exchanges modernisation equipment at
were suspended by India after the Indian Air Force stations.
nellis.af.mil

Lt. Gen BS Jaswal, the then Raytheon has already com-

Northern Army Commander menced work on 30 IAF sta-
was denied a visa by China in tions in the first phase of the
2010. The military exchanges programme and in the second
resumed in April this year after CURRENTLY UNDERGOING a major phase another 25 stations will be mod-
the Prime Minister’s trip to revamp under the modernisation of Air ernised. Air Force stations began the
attend the Brazil Russia India Force Infrastructure (MAFI) plan, the modernisation programme in July this
China and South Africa (BRICS) Bhatinda Air Force base in Punjab will be year when phase one started. The mod-
summit in Sanya in China. ready for operations by 2012. The $240 ernisation efforts of the second phase will
million deal to modernise the Air Force begin in 2013.

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GEOPOLITICS

Rudra choppers for Pak border

THE RUDRA Advanced Light Heli-
copter (ALH) is all set to give the Indi-
an armed forces some much-need
punch on the western border with
Pakistan. A weaponised form of the
ALH, with air-to-air and anti-tank
missiles, the Rudra, will be deployed
along the Pakistan boundary in the
near future. Armed with a 20 mm tur-
ret gun, and 70 mm
rockets along with
the missiles, the
Rudra is about to
be inducted into
the Indian armed
forces.
By providing com-
defence forum india
Rudra is named after Lord Shiva who Control System, and an Integrated
is the destroyer of enemies in Dynamic System. It can cruise at
mythology. The helicopter speeds of 250 kmph and modifica-
weighs 5.5 tonnes and is tions have been to the airframe to give
equipped with advanced the helicopter the agility and speed to
features like a Full make it a stable weapons platform to
Authority Digital Elec- support infantry on the battlefield.
tronic Control, The development of the Rudra is part
Automatic Flight of the overall modernisation
plans for the helicopters in
the Indian armed Forces. The
induction of 114 light observa-
tion helicopters is in the final
stages. The Army also set to
induct 114 Light Combat Heli-
copters (LCH) for operations in
mountainous terrain.

manders on the ground with pow- Designed and manufactured

erful and mobile fire support, the by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd,
armed helicopters will be an the LCH made its maiden
invaluable asset on the front. The flight in March 2010. There are
officers will be able to direct the also plans to induct a chopper
armed helicopters to specific loca- in the 10-20 tonne-class as
tions to turn the tide of battle with part of the Indian Multi Role
its devastating firepower. The Helicopter programme.

Nirbhay missile test set India to equal Chinese

for 2012 infrastructure surge
NIRBHAY IS an indige-
nously developed sub-
sonic missile being
developed by the
Defence Research and
Development Organisa-
tion’s (DRDO) Advanced
Systems Laboratory.
Hemant Rawat

According to DRDO
Chief VK Saraswat, the
missile is going through
its final integration stage.
The Nirbhay is India’s DEFENCE MINISTER AK Antony has said that India was
second cruise missile working towards matching the upsurge of Chinese infra-
after BrahMos. Unlike structure along the border to protect the country’s territory.
the BrahMos which is a Voicing his apprehension at the increase in Chinese military
supersonic missile capa- infrastructure along the border, Antony said: “China is
ble of attaining speeds of expanding its military capabilities and its infrastructure in
up to Mach 2.8 or nearly the border area is also increasing substantially and we are
three times the speed of concerned about that. We have been improving our infra-
sound, the Nirbhay is a structure and military capabilities in the eastern sector. We
PIB

subsonic cruise missile
which flies at less than
Mach 1. But while the BrahMos has a range of 290 kilome-
tres the Nirbhay will have a range of nearly 1000 kilometres.
The longer ranged Nirbhay also has a planned launch
weight of around 1,000 kg and it will make use of a terrain-
following navigation system.
are strengthening our military capability and infrastructure
not for confrontation, but to protect our territory and also to
build an effective deterrence, so that we can protect every
inch of Indian territory.” India has raised two Mountain Divi-
sions to be based on its border with China in the North East
and high performance long-range Sukhoi-30 MKI fighters
have also been based on airbases there.

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GEOPOLITICS
COVERSTORY

SECURING
THE NORTH GARGANTUAN ENDEVOUR:
Working on the project has
Photo:BRO

brought many engineering

challenges to the fore

One of the biggest challenges of the Border Roads Organisation is the construction of the all-
weather Rohtang Tunnel that will provide by 2015 an alternative strategic route to Ladakh from
Manali in Himachal Pradesh. Apart from connecting the residents living on the border areas of
Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, the world’s longest tunnel at a high altitude will
provide the Indian armed forces great leverage in securing the state of Jammu and Kashmir
from any possible threats from China and Pakistan. An on-the-spot report by SAURAV JHA

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 g
COVERSTORY

  Devapriya Roy
BRO

GLIMPSES FROM THE PROJECT: (1) One of the entrances to the tunnel, (2) Construction equipment at the site

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

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 g
COVERSTORY

“T
HIS APRIL we lost two June and November each year, thereby travel time. Provided, of course, that the
workers to an avalanche,” effectively shutting off Lahaul and Spiti tunnel is completed on schedule by its
PK Mahajan, Chief Engi- from the rest of Himachal for a period of targeted date of mid-2015.
neer Project Rohtang six months. The Rohtang Tunnel, which “At the moment I am happy with the
Tunnel (RTP), remarked burrows underneath the Pir Panjal, will progress we are making,” said Mahajan.
grimly. After a few seconds of silence that change this, consisting as it does of an “As of date, SP heading of 1,645 metres
reverberated through his pre-fab office in approach road branching out from the and benching on both sides of 407
Solang Valley, Manali, I asked if there had existing Manali-Leh road at Solang Valley metres is done while the corresponding
been any casualties in the tunnel itself. in Manali to its South Portal (SP at an ele- figures for NP are 590 metres and 80
“Not this year, no” came the reply. Here at vation of 3,060 metres) and then another metres, respectively”, he added. Now
RTP headquarters of the Border Roads approach road emerging from its North while this translates to 4.65 metres of
Organisation (BRO) to witness first-hand Portal (NP at an elevation of 3,071 progress per day if we consider the inau-
the state of one of India’s foremost strate- metres) to rejoin the Manali-Leh high- gural blast to have taken place on June
gic construction projects, I start getting a way as it heads towards Keylong at a 30, 2010, it is quite fair given the fact that
feel of just how dangerous and difficult place called Sissu in Lahaul valley along the tunnel boring machines (TBM) are
the execution of such projects usually is. the Chandra river. not being used and in the initial stages a
But executed it has to be — since the The tunnel itself is of a bi-directional cumulative effect has to be overcome. In
8.82-km long Rohtang Tunnel that seeks horseshoe type. With a carriageway of fact, at the time of writing, some good
to provide all weather connectivity to 10.5 metres (plus a one-metre footpath rock strata had been encountered and
Lahaul and Spiti district in Himachal on either side) and vertical clearance of progress was apparently exceeding 15
Pradesh and thereby Ladakh — is very lit- 5.525 metres it will be large enough to metres a day. The lead contractor execut-
erally India’s best bet for securing its accommodate two semi-trailers side-by- ing RTP for BRO is the joint venture (JV)
northern frontier with China. side. Once complete, it is expected to between Austrian major STRABAG and
The Rohtang Tunnel is being built to allow vehicles to move at a speed of up to India’s AFCONS with 60 per cent stake
offer an alternative alignment on the 80 km/hour in the tunnel and the total held by the former. Their JV emerged as
429-km-long Manali-Leh general staff traffic estimated will be around 1300 the lowest bidder amongst some eight-
road. As of today, one has to cross the vehicles in all traversing either direction nine others who had met the basic
Rohtang Pass at an elevation of 13,050 each day. In all, the Rohtang Tunnel will benchmarks.
feet to reach the Lahaul Valley onwards shave of 46 km of travel distance between Mahajan is himself a major votary of
to Ladakh. But herein lies the rub — the Manali and Leh which corresponds to a the new Austrian tunneling method
Rohtang Pass stays open only between saving of almost three hours in terms of (NATM), which is being used for excavat-
LEADING THE WAY: Chief Engineer PK Mahajan in his office ing the Rohtang Tunnel. This process
essentially involves the use of jumbo
rock drills consisting of one-three arms
coupled with sequential blasting fol-
lowed by a mucking process using tipper
trucks. NATM was chosen for this project
based on the rather indifferent record of
using TBMs in young-fold mountains like
the Himalayas. On the other hand NATM,
according to Mahajan, provides “the
much-needed flexibility in the event of
geological surprises that may range from
finding gushing water, to hitting soil stra-
ta, to encountering methane deposits or
even hot springs”.
Be that as it may, the genesis of the RTP
can actually be traced all the way back to
1974 when the then Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi first mooted its construction. But
alacrity not being the greatest virtue of
the Indian state, it was only in 2002 when
the Vajpayee government took up the
proposal with some earnestness after the
Kargil conflict had made it abundantly
clear that an alternative all-weather
Devapriya Roy

alignment to the Srinagar-Leh highway

was the need of the hour if India had to
maintain its position in Siachen in partic-
ular and Ladakh in general.

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www.geopolitics.in December 2011

Lt. Col Vinod Shukla
INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES: The project involves new techniques like the Austrian-tunneling method to blast through tonnes
of rock
However, a change of guard in Delhi
the very next year and a forward move-
ment in relations with China in the 2005-
07 period meant that no physical work
on the tunnel itself really happened for
most of the second half of the last
decade either, even though the environ-
mental impact assessment (EIA) was
ready by 2005-06 and in 2007, SMEC was
made the lead consultant for the project
with the responsibility of profiling the
rock structure. It took till 2010, for the
actual construction process to get
underway when the foundation stone
for the project was laid with much fan-
fare by United Progressive Alliance
chairperson Sonia Gandhi. Of course,
the government could always say that it
was moving forward on preparing the
detailed project report and selecting bid-
ders in the prior period.
Nevertheless, it does seem that Chi-
nese activities and indeed assertiveness
in the past few years shook up Delhi suf-
ficiently for it to take up the project seri-
ously. It realised that a head-in-the-sand
approach to China’s massive build-up of
infrastructure right across on the Tibetan
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COVERSTORY
plateau would not cut it anymore. While
India may have done much to fortify
Tawang in the Eastern sector it seems
that the Chinese have now turned their
gaze on Ladakh in the Western sector and
this is where an increasing number of
intrusions are taking place.
In fact, beyond the intrusions that
make such great media headlines, the
Chinese are also bringing in nomads
from the interior and settling them in
military-styled barracks in Aksai Chin.
While in the immediate term, the
nomads are being used by Beijing to jus-
tify building permanent structures ever
closer to the unsettled border with India,
in the future the artificially-managed
presence of the nomads could even be
used to suggest that the area is one of
“settled populations”. It may be noted
that one of the guiding principles of the
India-China border talks is that “settled
populations are not to be disturbed”,
something that the Chinese are spectac-
ularly disregarding by reiterating their
claims to Tawang. Nevertheless, given
Beijing’s propensity for selective amnesia
as evidenced over the years, there is a
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likelihood that they could suddenly point
out this principle to avoid making con-
cessions in Aksai Chin. Indeed there is
every indication that the Chinese want to
hold on to the territory they captured
from India in 1962 and earlier hints by
some quarters in India that “we would
give some, we could get some” is proba-
bly a wishful thinking. Beijing only wants
to “get some”, not give.
On the Indian side, there is a realisa-
tion that the Lahaul and Spiti valleys and
Ladakh in general, need to be developed
as well. The first step to that is to ensure
that the population of the place is not lit-
erally and metaphorically cut off from
the rest of India for large parts of the
year. After all, given that China is now
extending connectivity right up to the
last point on its side, it is imperative that
the Indian state makes the people of
these border regions feel wanted. Left
unsaid is the fact that in this globalised
age, the best way to secure an area is to
ensure the loyalty of the people of the
region through building sustainable
socio-economic linkages.
“More than 40,000 people in Lahaul
(continued on page 49)
December 2011
 g
COVERSTORY
BRO

“WE ARE BEST IN EXTREME

CONDITIONS”
The Border Roads Organisation is believed to be a multifaceted, transnational and modern
construction outfit committed to meeting the strategic needs of the armed forces through
cost-effective development and sustenance of the infrastructure. The BRO Director General,
LT. GENERAL S RAVI SHANKAR tells SAURAV JHA in an exclusive interview why the BRO is a
proud organisation and how, in its 51 years of service, it has undertaken many challenges in
inhospitable and far-flung border areas and contributed towards national integration

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COVERSTORY
RECORD-BREAKING PROJECT: Upon its
completion, the Rohtang Project will be one of the
world’s longest tunnels at such a high altitude
There have been any case, the BRO cannot be judged on
reports that instances in any one project or the con-
BRO’s progress dition of a couple of roads. Most of the
on certain border projects are in high mountains — work-
roads is not pro- ing in areas where few dare to work and
gressing as per under extremely challenging conditions.
schedule. How You will appreciate there are a number of
would you re- factors that slow these projects ranging
spond to this? from the usual land acquisition and envi-
I would prefer ronmental clearance problems to ex-
BRO
not to comment treme work conditions and even natural
on a story based on half truths without an calamities. You need to realise as the BRO
understanding of the larger picture. In moves closer to the border, the condi-
tions grow even more challenging in
STELLAR LEADERSHIP: Lt General higher reaches.
S Ravi Shankar has the unenviable task of
leading the mission
Would you then say that your recent role
in relief operations in Sikkim post-earth-
www.geopolitics.in
(47)
quake goes some way in belying such
reports?
Well, our response to the tragedy has won
BRO kudos from various quarters. Even
the CM and Governor of Sikkim were
pleasantly surprised by our response dur-
ing the crisis. And you would note that
they had been wanting more from the BRO
not so long ago. Nevertheless, BRO cer-
tainly proved in Sikkim the level of compe-
tence it brings in a crisis situation. Does
that mean we are satisfied? No, one can-
not rest on past laurels and must keep
moving on. People need to realise that the
margin for error in the kind of places BRO
works, is very slim, and one cannot endan-
ger the lives of personnel by pushing them
beyond a reason.
Do you think environmental concerns are
playing a part in delaying the progress?
Environmental considerations are cer-
tainly playing a role in determining the
pace of projects. There are instances
where BRO has laid the groundwork but is
unable to proceed because forest clear-
ances are pending. But this is not to sug-
gest for a second that the Environment
Ministry is not hastening up matters. The
nature of the issue precludes the possibil-
ity that matters can be resolved quickly.
There are genuine concerns that need to
be allayed before consensus can be
achieved. And consensus requires time.
How is BRO placed equipment wise? In
terms of quality, perhaps?
You would be happy to know that we
brought in `200 crore worth of new equip-
ment last year and are slated to tender
`300 crore this year. I can certainly attest
to the fact that BRO’s equipment holdings
have seen excellent improvement in the
recent past. For instance, we have moved
from a predominance of dozers to more
excavators. You must have also seen the
state-of-the-art equipment in place for the
Rohtang Tunnel Project.
What is the status of the Zaranj Delaram
road?
The road was completed ahead of sched-
ule and is operational. In fact, it is working
wonderfully and can be considered a huge
success story for BRO. The whole world
felt that we would not be allowed to do it
given the hostile conditions, but we did it,
and now this project is there, as an exam-
ple, for all to see how the BRO is at its best
under extreme conditions.
December 2011

Devapriya Roy
HIGH-RISK MISSION: High altitudes and the remote location have made this project an extremely hazardous endeavour
Would you then consider the Zaranj De-
laram road your biggest success?
The bigger story really lies in all those
things that people take for granted. There
are many border states in our country and
even Bhutan where growth actually
started with the activities of BRO! For in-
stance, people in Bhutan still talk about
the success of Project Dantak, which for
long has been considered India’s best am-
bassador in that country. This is true for
every state along our Northern and East-
ern borders.
Given that as it may, does BRO then find it
easier than other agencies to operate in
places like Jammu and Kashmir?
(Smiles) The BRO is accepted as a part of
the ‘avaam’ in J&K. We have no problems
in operating in J&K. People see us as one
of them. In fact, locals often worry as to
what would happen when the BRO moves
out of an area and hands the area over to
someone else. Recently, the Forest Minis-
ter in the state was quoted as saying: “The
BRO gives us good roads, jobs and good
compensation for our land. In fact, they
give us more than they take.” Yet, ad-
dressing people’s aspirations remains the
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COVERSTORY
biggest challenge for us, as they always
want more and faster still.
Would access to greater heli-lift capacity
benefit BRO? If yes, then are you looking
at civilian operators for this?
To answer your second question first, we
are indeed considering all options to aug-
ment the number of heli-lifts that we can
secure. In the mountains you can attack a
new road normally from one end unlike
the plains where you can tackle a road at a
number of points applying more re-
sources. Heli-lift helps us carry equip-
ment in dismantled state to points
otherwise not accessible where we assem-
ble it and create more attack points.
These men and machines are maintained
logistically by heli-lift thereafter till they
connect with the main effort. So it helps
speed up work but is a daring, technically-
challenging — and an expensive option.
Do you think the structure of BRO needs
to undergo a change as some quarters
have recently suggested?
I think BRO’s current structure has some
inherent strengths. The fact that we are
made up of two cadres (i.e. Army and
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General Reserve Engineer Force) puts us
in a unique situation where we can draw
upon people with differing backgrounds
to approach a certain task. One may have
greater area knowledge in planning and
administration under adverse conditions,
while the other may be more experienced
in core engineering skills. These varied
strengths fuse together to give us the op-
timal mix that we need. There is also an
operational role for the BRO where the
mix is essential. You saw the synergy in
Sikkim recently — they add up to more
than the whole.
Should the Rohtang Tunnel Project be
declared a project of strategic impor-
tance? When is it likely to be ready?
It certainly would help the project against
misguided union activity. But when and
if it will be, is a decision that has to be
taken by the government. Even then, the
Rohtang Tunnel Project is well under way
and if we keep finding the kind of hard
rock that we have hit recently, I think the
project will be ready by December 2014.
If both faces of tunnel are considered, we
are now progressing almost at14-16 me-
ters a day on an average basis.
December 2011
 g
COVERSTORY

BRO IN NORTH EAST

N
ORTH EAST of India is one of the least connected the troops deployed there are air maintained. The nearest
regions of India. The geography of the region makes roadhead to tawang is Balipara and Charduar, the road con-
road construction a very daunting task. The pressure of nectivity of these to tawang is still year behind the schedule.
Chinese infrastructure across the border has forced India to The defence of LAC is being beefed up through raising of
construct roads and other infrastructure all across north east at two mountain division and possibly one mountain strike corp
priority. may come up in near future. These new division would require
India is constructing 73 strategic roads on its border along reliable, all weather, mountain roads to defend LAC. Orang-
china and Pakistan. Out of this 15 roads have got completed, 39 Kalakathang-Shergaon -Rupa-Tenga and Shergaon-BJ Gompa-
are due for completion by 2013 and rest will be done by 2016. Teli-Tawang, critical towards this end, is running behind
Arunachal Pradesh, the most strategically located state in schedule.
north east bordering Tibet has 27 strategic road projects in The task of road construction in AP is much difficult in com-
north east. Road construction is a daunting challenge in AP parison to Tibet due the steep mountains and heavy snow fall.
due to the mountainous terrain and the weather. The weather The Tibet plateau provides solid base for road construction.
permits only five The rains and land-
months of road slide makes road
construction. The construction possi-
rest of seven ble for only four to
months road con- five months. These
struction is not problems are not
possible due to faced by Chinese.
heavy monsoon In 1999 BRO
and snow fall. began working on
One of the major construction of
hurdles in road operationally sig-
construction is the nificant roads in
inaccessibility of remote areas of AP
the project sites under the project
and ferrying of VARTAK. The proj-
heavy equipments. ect was launched in
The Indian air 1960 as project
forces was provid- Tusker, which was
ing the much renamed to VAR-
required air lifting TAK in 1963. The
of equipments but project was opera-
due to unavailabili- tional in state of
BRO

ty of heavy trans- Assam and AP. This

port helicopters PATH-BREAKING EFFORT: The BRO has been at the forefront of many road project has con-
and also due to construction projects in the north east structed 2776 km of
other operational roads, 150 km of
requirements, the Pawan Hans, has been roped to provide bridges and many important buildings. At present the project
much needed air lift to BRO. is constructing 1690 km of roads and maintaining 2134 km of
Indian strategic road projects in both Ladakh and AP lag roads. The bridge construction began in 1972. Till date four
behind their schedule. In contrast to this the Chinese have Bailey suspension bridges of 400 ft length and 340 equipment
constructed 50, 000 km of roads in Tibet plateau along Line of bridges have been constructed. At present the project man-
actual control. The Indian defence ministry is alarmed by this. ages works of around 120 cr a year.
One of the reasons for delay is the much needed environment The BRO is withdrawing from many parts of north east to
clearance. construct roads on Tibet border, which is priority at present.
Tawang, one of the most strategically sensitive places in Withdrawal is affecting the road construction and widening of
North east is still not well connected with the road network and national highway.

(continued from page 45)

and Spiti district will benefit directly
from this project,” remarked Mahajan.
“In fact, people in other parts of
Himachal are benefiting from this too,
given that 70 per cent of the workers
employed on this project have been
drawn from the state,” he added. In this
context, I asked if sufficient skilled
labour was available for the project and
got the reply that this was indeed the
case and that the STRABAG-AFCONS JV
had recruited heavily from workers with
a background in the Delhi Metro project.
The use of local workers probably
ensures that there are fewer acclimatisa-
tion issues that can make a difference
given the very thin margin for error at
these altitudes. After all, there are no less

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

(49)

BRO’S AERIAL CRANES
DEDICATED AIRLIFT: PHHL services enable the BRO to fulfill tasks like constructing
remote roads in far-flung areas with difficult topography and climate in the North East
Pawan Hans to the rescue
The Border Roads Organisation (BRO)
has partnered with Pawan Hans
Helicopters Limited (PHHL) to help in
the exemplary task of constructing
roads in the far-flung regions of the
country especially in the North East.
Pawan Hans’ choppers are especially
useful while airlifting outsized cargo to
remote regions of the country where
there are no motorable roads. A
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
was signed between PHHL and BRO for
providing air support services in August
than 18 major avalanche-prone points
on the two approach roads that required
mandatory avalanche control structures.
Thirteen of these lay on the SP side
(referred to as MSP-1 through 13) and
five on the NP side (referred to as MNP-1
through 5).
While formation zone (i.e. right at the
crest of a ridge where an avalanche is
likely to form) structures would be nec-
essary for more than ten of the sites, BRO
www.geopolitics.in
g
COVERSTORY
2010. To fulfill the commitment
assigned, PHHL made all out efforts,
like providing a Mi-172 helicopter
(under wet lease arrangement) to the
BRO. The helicopter was stationed at
Itanagar in Arunachal Pradesh.
Dedicated helicopter services were
provided in the far-flung areas of
Arunachal Pradesh for transport of
rations, manpower, fuel and lubricants,
construction materials, machinery
such a bulldozers, road rollers, etc.
Heavy machinery like dozers etc were
carried with underslung operations.
using technology developed by DRDO,
was also building middle and run-off
zone avalanche control structures for
some of the sites, and these would be
shown on the way to SP.
Concluding the initial briefing in the
Chief Engineer’s office Devapriya (the
photographer for this excursion) and I
set off with Lt Colonel Shukla and Execu-
tive Engineer Jhangade for SP along the
approach road. After passing six of the
(50)
danger points, we reached MSP-7 where
a major middle-zone-structure was
under construction.
The snow gallery for MSP-7, an ava-
lanche control structure that shields the
road by letting the avalanche pass over-
head and lets the condensed water drain
channels, had been designed by DRDO’s
Snow and Avalanche Safety Establish-
ment (SASE) headquartered in Chandi-
garh. A little while ahead lay MSP-10
where a new diversion structure was
under construction. This was, of course,
a run-off zone endeavour and sought to
literally divert the descending snow in a
direction that would render it non-
threatening to a bailey bridge that would
otherwise have been in its path.
Passing the machine workshop for SP
on the way (which we were to be shown
on the way back) and an SASE facility, we
finally reached the hallowed place rather
late in the afternoon. A slight haze mixed
with cloud cover produced a strange pas-
tel effect in the Pir Panjal. SP was clearly
abuzz with activity as one could see tip-
per trucks looking to enter or leave the
portal. Our site guide for the tour of the
excavated section turned out to be no
less than the project head from the
STRABAG-AFCONS side, Dr Rosenfeld, a
geologist by training.
Driving into the tunnel with Rosen-
feld at the wheel, one got a sense of just
how much work had to be done for a
project of this magnitude. Makeshift
lighting illuminated the walls of the tun-
nel which seemed reasonably evened
out for a process that essentially
involved drilling and blasting. The basic
ventilation system seemed to be work-
ing well and the level of dust in the tun-
nel was lower than what one would
expect given that a scheduled blast had
taken place not too long ago. About
hundred metres from where the tunnel
face was, we disembarked and waded
through the slush only just sensing drips
of water falling on our hard hats from
overhead.
As we neared the tunnel face, I was
witness to large excavators roaring to-
and- fro from it for a short distance,
picking up the debris or muck left by the
recent explosion. A tipper truck was
simultaneously gathering the muck
from one of the piles created by the
excavators.
“Once we have the overhead crane
system in place, the process will be
speeded up greatly. Since the tipper
December 2011
 g
COVERSTORY
BRO

HEAVY MACHINERY: The endeavour involves the use of specialised equipment brought in from the plains

trucks will have to enter a far shorter
distance into the tunnel during the
mucking process,” Rosenfeld explained.
I nodded in agreement and asked how
much debris had been excavated in vol-
ume terms as of then. “About 16,00,000
cubic metres,” replied Shukla. “We hope
that about 30 per cent of that will be
recoverable.”
Rosenfeld then motioned the excava-
tors to stop, which they did in growling
mode, one lined behind the other with
lights blazing. Turning to the face he said,
“We encountered a crumbling rock in the
initial days but now I am happy with
what I am seeing,” and passed a hand
over the face for good measure. “Are fos-
sils likely to be found here?” asked
Devapriya. “No I don’t think so. There is
no gneiss that I see. In fact I’ll wager that
we won’t find any,” was Rosenfeld’s reply.
KARGIL CONFLICT
MADE IT CLEAR
THAT AN
ALTERNATIVE TO
THE SRINAGAR-
LEH HIGHWAY
WAS ESSENTIAL
“But what are some of the other wagers
going on then?” I asked in jest. Shukla
replied this time that many workers are
firmly holding on to the belief that some-
thing of a precious nature may yet turn
up. We all laughed, a little.
On our descent from SP, we stopped at
the machine workshop for this end of the
project. The entire place was lined with
precast concrete sections of varying
sizes. The largest ones I was told were for
the “egress tunnel” that will run below
the main carriageway. Smaller sections
were for other minor tunnels running
alongside the egress tunnel. Some of
these smaller sections already seemed on
their way to SP.
“We have a state-of-the-art batching
plant here,” mused Shukla. “In this proj-
ect quality and safety are the keys which
is why we have brought in a lot of equip-
ment from overseas that operate at much
greater tolerances and are designed for
extreme accuracy.” I observed that given
the climatic conditions a lot of equip-
ment designed for the European Alps
wouldn’t really be out of place here,
unlike a lot of western equipment, which

www.geopolitics.in December 2011

(51)

Devapriya Roy
INNOVATING TO CONQUER: Pre-cast sections at the machine workshop for South Portal
simply break down in the heat and dust
of India. Shukla nodded in approval.
“Please enter,” Jhangade indicated
towards a facility which said “Quality
Control Lab” (QLC). The QLC at the
machine workshop had extensive facili-
ties for physical testing of sand, stone
and concrete. Chemical analysis was,
however, being done in four independent
laboratories located around the country.
After a few demonstrations of some of
the processes, it was mutually decided to
call it a day.
We started off at first light the next
morning for what promised to be a long
drive to-and-fro from NP of the Rohtang
Tunnel. The sights were expectedly spec-
tacular as we drove up the Manali-Leh
road steadily ascending towards the
Rohtang Pass that lay above. The road,
however, at times provided a very differ-
ent spectacle. While excellently surfaced
for stretches closer to Solang Valley, as
we got closer to Rohtang top, the road
turned into a layering of rocks and slush
in the main. Work was clearly underway
-- though on two-laning this strategic
pathway as we saw members of various
BRO task forces labouring at various alti-
tudes. Once at Rohtang top, we were wit-
ness to a large undulating space cover-
ing thick morning snow with a stupa
marking the veritable gap in the moun-
tains. The road quality here was quite
good but deteriorated rapidly as we
began our descent to the Lahaul Valley.
Reaching the valley, we followed the
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g
COVERSTORY
crystal blue Chandra River to first reach
the machine workshop for NP. “That
heap you see over there resting on the
river bed is what used to be a service
building,” Jhangade said dryly. “It got
blown away when an avalanche came
over what we call MNP-4,” and with that
he pointed towards an odious mountain
top. “Formation zone structure?” I asked
simply. “Absolutely,” was Jhangade’s reply
as he beckoned us towards our chief
quarry.
CHINESE
ACTIVITIES IN THE
PAST FEW YEARS
SHOOK UP DELHI
TO TAKE UP THE
PROJECT
SERIOUSLY
NP stood out as this gaping darkness
in a sea of light. Oddly enough though,
there wasn’t much activity at the site
when I arrived there. As I learnt a little
while later from a couple of junior engi-
neers employed by the JV, there was a
flash strike on at the site. Not a particu-
larly auspicious moment for a media vis-
it, but nevertheless it served to bring into
focus how even projects of vital strategic
(52)
importance are not insulated from the
vagaries of labour unions.
“It is much chillier here, even though
this is only five metres higher than SP,”
remarked Jhangade. I nodded in
approval and excused myself from enter-
ing further into the tunnel since I had
picked a horrible cold overnight. On the
way back, I couldn’t help wondering that
the journey to NP was instructive in
itself. Since it brought to light just what
kind of gains would accrue to a traveller
once the Rohtang Tunnel was ready in
terms of fatigue avoidance and time-sav-
ing. Moreover there is a proposal to build
a 4.5-km tunnel under Shinku La, which
would further reduce the travel time
between Manalj and Leh by another 5-6
hours. The NP travel experience also
makes it rather easy to voice your sup-
port for this project as well.
Back from the rather tiring journey to
NP, I once again found myself in the
Chief Engineer’s office the next morning
and promptly asked him about the strike
the other day. “Yes there was some sort of
issue yesterday,” he admitted. “But it is
being resolved,” he pointed out cheerily.
“But don’t you think a project of this sort
should not have to deal with typical
labour-related problems?” I ventured.
“Ideally yes, but this being India nothing
can be said for sure,” he observed. I then
asked whether declaring RTP a strategic
project would help. Mahajan replied in
the affirmative and said his fingers were
crossed on that one. As are mine.
December 2011
 geopolitics
INTERNAL SECURITY

URBAN
SECURITY
Indian cities are likely to be
targeted more and more by
terrorists and Maoists
Hemant Rawat
 IS
INTERNAL SECURITY B R I E F S g
3G security Aadhaar flaws Interceptor for DP
dilemma THE CAPITAL’S cops
will soon obtain an
internet monitoring
system capable of
probing the web con-
tent on the computers
of the city’s citizens.
With this
system the
Delhi Police
will not
have to rely

m
edecision4u.co
on the
omnifuzz.in

THE INCLUSION of unverified residents and internet

THE TELECOM Ministry has
reacted with unease about the
practice of several telecom
companies using an “illegal”
intra-agreement to share 3G
spectrum. According to the
Telecom Ministry, this illegal
sharing has “far-reaching secu-
rity implications”. All “roaming
arrangements” are meant for
“short-term movement/roam-
ing”, according to an internal
note prepared by the telecom
ministry. But instead of this,
the telecom companies which
successfully obtained the 3G
license sublet a part of their
allocated spectrum by signing
roaming agreements. With
agreements such as these, a
number of telecom companies
which had not got licenses
have started providing 3G serv-
ices. This has resulted in a huge
loss of revenue to the excheq-
uer because of the subversion
of the whole bidding process.
But this sharing has other ram-
ifications as well. Security
agencies and intelligence units
who have to tap phones with a
system called LIMS (Legal
Interception, Monitoring and
Surveillance) to prevent a
crime or gather intelligence
face hurdles because of this.
Potentially fatal delays can be
caused as the security agencies
probe a person who is on
roaming because the sleuths
have to first get access from the
the creation of false profiles in the Aadhaar
project may compromise internal security, says
Home Minister (HM) P Chidambaram. The HM
has put across deep reservations about the
problem of unconfirmed information in the list
that is being put together by the Unique Identi-
fication Authority of India.
He also called attention to the fact that the
efforts in collection of the data may be leading
to unnecessary expenditure and duplication of
the efforts of the Registrar General of India
(RGI) which gathers similar information for
enrolment. According to a dispatch that Home
Minister Chidambaram sent to Montek Singh
Ahluwalia, the Deputy Chairman of the Plan-
ning Commission, the National Population
Register is being collated by the Registrar Gen-
eral of India by pilot trial consultations with
state governments and an empowered group
of ministers.
The terror industry of Kashmir
A REPORT by the Belgian think-
tank Association for Solidarity
says that “bandits and criminals”
have been committing heinous
crimes in the militancy-hit region of
Jammu and Kashmir and blaming the
security forces for their offenses.
According to the organisation, the bandits
have been indulging in crimes like rape, mur-
der, and the using mafia practices to extort
money. According to the think tank, “They are
committing the crimes under the cover of ‘the
movement’. For them this is a lucrative indus-
try and under the present circumstances, it is
easy to blame the security forces for all crimes
that are committed.”
A team from the think-tank met a cross-
section of the people including pro-Pakistan
Syed Ali Shah Geelani and moderate leaders
including Bilal Lone and Abdul Gani Bhat.
They even met with politicians from the
service
p r ov i d e r s
to probe user’s internet
behaviour with the help of a parallel tapping
mechanism. The system will be capable of
screening a potential suspect’s emails and
chats and tapping into the content from
even users who access the internet through
mobile phones. Parameters like email IDs,
IP addresses and keywords can be used to
scan and target individuals by the new sur-
veillance system to intercept internet com-
munication. The new intercept system will
involve the setting up of a central monitor-
ing centre and two nodal centres. All the
major internet service providers will be con-
nected to the monitoring centres. The sys-
tem will be run and maintained by the Delhi
Police which has also issued a worldwide
tender for the same.
by the terrorists. The report also said that
both the security forces and the militants
were committing human rights violations and
it was possible that not all the violations
were being reported and even those that
were reported were not disclosed or
prosecuted.
ticklethewire.com

agencies of the state. Only
then can information be pro-
vided to them from the service
provider in the specific state.
mainstream political parties during their visit
to the state this summer. The think tank
blamed the leaders of the separatist move-
ment on Kashmir for turning a blind eye to
the human rights abuses being perpetrated

(54)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

BSF for Myanmar
border?
acus.org
THERE COULD soon be a change of guard on In-
dia’s northeast states on the border with Myan-
mar. The 1640 km-long border with Myanmar is
guarded by the Assam Rifles right now, but
plans are afoot to hand over the guarding duty
to the Border Security Force (BSF). The plan to
assign the border guarding duty to the BSF is do-
ing the rounds with the Cabinet Committee on
Security (CCS). This follows a proposal from the
BSF to take control of the border. The BSF plans
to raise a headquarters of Additional Director
General, four frontier headquarters to be head-
ed by an IG-rank official, 12 sector headquarters
to be headed by DIG-level officials for the new
role. The arrangements will also involve the
raising of 45 new battalions. Though it is a bor-
der-guarding force, the BSF is also involved in
anti-Naxal operations in different parts of the
country besides guarding the Indo-Bangla and
the Indo-Pak borders.
Dogs trained to hit terror hideouts by ITBP
ACCORDING TO a report in indiatoday.in, a
proposal by the Indo-Tibetan Border Police
(ITBP) to use dogs
to attack terrorist
targets has invited
the wrath of animal
rights activists. The
ITBP plans to train
the dogs to plant
explosive charges
near the hideouts of
terrorists. Accord-
ing to ITBP officials,
the dogs would be
protected during
the attacks as the
weapon would only
PIB
be detonated after
the dog has returned to the handler. The ITBP
has even trained the dogs to return to the hide-
outs to recover the weapons of the ultras. The
ITBP has gained extensive experience with
dogs as they are also used to find victims of
avalanches. The force has used the canines in
disaster management operations and even
www.geopolitics.in
g B R I E F S IS
ISRO to help
CRPF
THE CENTRAL Reserve Police Force (CRPF)
is reportedly seeking the help of the Indian
Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in the
fight against the Communist Party of India-
Maoist (CPI-Maoist). Laptops featuring the
Geographic Information System (GIS) have
been issued to security forces in Naxal-hit
zones. The GIS data of these left-wing
extremist-affected regions will help the
work of both officials and the security
forces. The Department of Science and
Technology (DST) has sold 65 GIS mobile
work stations to the CRPF for units
deployed in the Maoist-affected areas. Ter-
rain maps of the region will now be avail-
able with the company commanders now
and these will help the troops on the ground
by indentifying sites that are prone to
ambushes. The information can also be
used to plan escape routes for troops stuck
in a Maoist ambush and for setting up
ambushes against the extremists.
trained dogs for police forces of various states.
If implemented, the plan would be the first to
use dogs in count-
er-terror opera-
tions. Even the
Indian Army does
not use canines for
such operations.
But the idea of put-
ting the dogs in
harm’s way has
drawn the ire of the
animal rights
activists with the
Animal Welfare
Board getting into
fray. Major General
Dr R M Kharb, the
chairman of the Animal Welfare Board, which
is a statutory body under the Ministry of Envi-
ronment, called the idea ‘weird’ and said it
made no sense. Even Member of Parliament
Maneka Gandhi, the head of People for Ani-
mals, lambasted the paramilitary force and
called the idea ridiculous.
(55)
INTERNAL SECURITY
Notice to
Mumbai cops
Suyogaerospace
WELL IT’S not just the
organisers of the Indian
Premier League (IPL), even the
police guarding the cricket
extravaganza made a financial
windfall at the games — by
providing guard duty at the
venues. According to the
estimates of the service tax
department, the Mumbai
police earned `850 crore during
the IPL and other cricket
matches. The service tax
department has now served a
notice to the Mumbai Police for
the profits earned by offering
services to private parties,
including organisers of the IPL
and other cricket matches.
Even security organisations like
the Central Industrial Security
Force (CISF) and Central
Reserve Police Force pay
service tax on the services they
offer to private commercial
organisations. But the Mumbai
Police has not even got itself
registered with the service tax
department in spite of repeated
reminders. According to rules,
security services are subject to
service tax and providers need
to collect service tax from users
and pay it to the service tax
department.
December 2011
 g
GEOPOLITICS
INTERNALSECURITY

Hemant Rawat

WHEN THE
ARMED FORCES
POLICE
If the armed forces cannot do anything on their own and need civilian clearance during their
operations, how will their effectiveness different from that of the normal police and
paramilitary forces? AJAY K MEHRA discusses the question in the context of the vexed AFSPA

(56)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

EAGLE EYE: Tourists enjoying on the
banks of Dal lake under the watchful eyes
of a soldier
T
HE ARMED FORCES Special
Powers Act (AFSPA) has once
again come in for a sharp
focus; this time in the context
of the trouble-torn Jammu
and Kashmir ( J&K). J&K Chief Minister
Omar Abdullah is recommending that
the AFSPA be withdrawn from some
peaceful areas in the state. He is staking
his claim on some media surveys that
J&K has witnessed a quiet summer com-
pared last year and is a more peaceful
state than many others. He reportedly
has a nod from Union Home Minister P
Chidambaram. The Army has opposed
any such move attributing the quiet to
their effort in which the Act too has
www.geopolitics.in
g
INTERNALSECURITY
helped, saying that it could just be a lull.
The move has elicited a mixed respons-
es also from the Union Government, the
local populace, the local politicians, the
national opposition, the media, the
Human Rights lobby, and many others,
bringing the existentialist approach of
the state, operational needs of the
armed forces in a violent rebellious situ-
ation and human rights, battered psy-
che and abnormal living conditions of
the local population.
AFSPA
HAS BEEN
UNDER FIRE
IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN
STATES AND
KASHMIR
Meant for a limited period
Notably, the Act has been under fire in
the context of the North Eastern States,
where it was first applied in 1958 to deal
with the Naga insurgents and later to
other areas and States where secession-
ist politics aided by insurgency and/or
terrorism grew. Though applied only for
a limited period, it has continued to
date, creating a half a century long his-
tory of such an application of an
‘extraordinary’ law, which is obviously
‘harsh’ in giving the armed forces, which
are trained to battle and combat hostile
alien powers in situations where the rule
of law of domestic kind is not relevant,
to a hostile interface with the local citi-
zens — ‘own countrymen’, some of
whom are rebellious, others are hapless-
ly and helplessly in collateral zone;
trusted by neither side. The case of
Thangjam Manorama Devi, arrested by
Assam Rifles on July 9, 2004, for alleged
insurgent links and dumped a day later
tortured, bruised, raped and killed, led
to a protest on July 15, 2004, in front of
Assam Rifles by women naked to the
last, urging Indian forces to rape them,
brought out what such situations can
lead to. Irom Sharmila has been on fast
in Imphal since 2000 protesting against
the AFSPA and pleading for its repeal.
She is since being force-fed on fluids
and drips by the government to keep her
(57)
alive. Obviously, collateral zone, always
rough in such violent and defiant situa-
tions, is extremely harsh in this case.
And, though the AFSPA is not the rea-
son, certainly the most important legit-
imising tool for the state violence, which
invariably spills over to civic life.
The Kashmir valley, simmering for a
while with unease over political mis-
management from New Delhi, erupted
on 8 December 1989, when the then
Union Home Minister Mufti Moham-
mad Sayeed’s (later he was Chief Minis-
ter of the state from November 2002 to
2005) daughter Dr Rubaiya Sayeed was
kidnapped by extremists. When the
Government of India bowed and
obtained her release in exchange for
militants JKLF ‘area commander’ Sheikh
Abdul Hameed, Ghulam Nabi Butt,
younger brother of the late Maqbool
Butt; Noor Muhammad Kalwal;
Muhammed Altaf; and Javed Ahmed
Zargar (a Pakistani citizen), the valley
slipped into the hands of the militants.
The cycle of violence continues to date.
This is when the AFSPA was promulgat-
ed in the state through a parliamentary
legislation in September 1990. As in the
context of some of the glaring cases of
Manipur, there have been complaints
galore of human rights violation — tor-
ture, custodial death, rape, mass mur-
der, indiscriminate shooting, and so on.
Naturally, voices for lifting this ‘inhu-
man’ legislation have increased in the
valley.
In both the cases, the Army has
opposed doing away with the legisla-
tion, arguing that it is a significant legal
tool of its operation in these areas. They
have asserted that each complaint of
any misdemeanour and legal transgres-
sion by any member of the security
force is taken seriously by them and sev-
eral members of the force have been
punished. They also claim several ini-
tiatives taken to earn the people’s trust
in the troubled areas. Thus, they have
added to the debate after the J&K Chief
Minister’s call for scaling down of the
Act by lifting it from certain peaceful
areas by opposing this suggestion,
adding that the peace is due to this
instrument in their bag.
The Legislation
There are two legislations named The
Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act in
The Gazette of India — one passed in
1958 for Assam (unified) and Manipur,
December 2011
 g
INTERNALSECURITY

modified in 1960, 1970, 1972 and 1986 in the most important question is that just
order to extend it to new states of the because the state is facing an armed
Northeast and the second passed in THE J&K challenge, should the security forces be
1990 for Jammu and Kashmir. The two
do not differ either in content or appli- ISSUE allowed to trample upon human rights
of the people. From the perspective of
cation to give the Governor of the state
concerned the power to declare the
IS A COMPLEX the state, a challenge to its sovereignty
and integrity from armed rebellion and
state or part of it as disturbed area. ONE THAT terrorism presents an unusual, abnor-
Indeed, the Acts take care to insert
statutory warning both in terms under- COMPRISES A mal and complex situation of violent
threat that needs special ways to tackle
lining that the declaration cannot be
arbitrary, meaning that the reasons have
DECOLONISATION it. An armed threat is not easy to be
dealt with by the police. Deployment of
to substantive and clearly stated. It also LEGACY the Army and other such armed forces
cannot be applied indefinitely without within the territory of India has both
any time limit and must be reviewed legal and humanitarian implications,
periodically. with the district administration and not which obviously has arisen in the Indian
The Act is meant ‘to enable certain as an independent body’ and that case. The AFSPA is a legal solution to the
special power to be conferred upon ‘armed forces could work in harmony authorisation that the armed forces need
members of the armed forces in dis- when they deployed in disturbed area.’ for internal security related policing
turbed areas…’. The specially powered An interrogation of the AFSPA raises functions, for constitutionally they are
armed forces then enable ‘any commis- two sets of questions - from the people’s not empowered for public order duties.
sioned officer, warrant officer, non- perspective and from the state’s perspec- This brings in the questions of trans-
commissioned officer or any other per- tive. From the perspective of the people, parency and accountability.
son of equivalent rank in the armed
PROTESTING THE GUNS: The existence of the Army in the North-East has been the
forces’ (a) fire upon after warning, or use
cause of widespread resentment
force, even to the causing of death,
‘against any person who is acting in
contravention of any law or order …
being in force in disturbed area’; (b)
‘destroy any arms dump, … fortified
position or shelter …’; (c) ‘arrest, with-
out warrant, any person who has com-
mitted a cognizable offence or against
whom a reasonable suspicion exists that
he has committed or is about to commit
a cognizable offence and may use such
forces may be necessary to effect the
arrest; (d) ‘enter and search without
warrant any premises ….’
Among the most significant aspect of
the Acts is that ‘no prosecution, suit or
legal proceeding shall be instituted,
except with the previous sanction of the
Central Government, against any person
in respect of anything done or purport-
ed to be done in exercise of the powers
conferred by this Act.’ In Inderjit Barua
v. State of Assam case in 1983 the
Supreme Court ruled that ‘conferment
of power on non-commissioned officers
like a Havaldar cannot be said to be bad
imphalmanipurgallery@picasaweb

and unjustified.’ There is a provision for

the armed forces that ‘any person arrest-
ed under this Act ‘shall be made over to
the officer in charge of the nearest
police station with the least possible
delay, together with a report of the cir-
cumstances occasioning the arrest’, yet
in Luithukia v. Rishang Keishing (1988)
case the judiciary directed that ‘the
armed forces must act in cooperation

(58)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

AFSPA: Extraordinary law
AFSPA is clearly an extraordinary law for
an unusual situation. Since its origin and
operation are in the realm of the state, the
state perspective dominates. The state’s
perception is reactive to atypical state of
affairs for which it may or may not be
responsible. In Indian case, for example
the Naga, Mizo and some other problems
in the Northeast have been circumstan-
tial, either inherited in the process of
decolonization or developed due to
geopolitics of the region. Some prob-
lems, for example, in Assam, Manipur,
Tripura and Meghalaya are also due to
political mishandling of irritating moles
that became molehills. The J&K issue is a
more complex one. A decolonization
legacy that was compounded further by
the State’s Dogra ruler Maharaja Hari
Singh, Pakistani invasion of 1948, Nehru’s
blunder of taking it to the UN Security
Council, the big power stakes in the
region and post-Independence ham-
handed political handling by the Indian
state.
www.geopolitics.in
g
INTERNALSECURITY
AFSPA IS
CLEARLY
AN
EXTRAORDINARY
LAW FOR AN
UNUSUAL
SITUATION
AFSPA is rooted in the paradoxes and
dilemmas of a democratic state. While
theoretically the people take precedence,
operationally the state must protect itself
before protecting people. Hence raison
d’etate (reason of state) prevails over rai-
son d’les gens (reason of the people). Yet,
the state too has to take into account that
the laws are made for the people by peo-
ple’s representatives. If its execution
hurts the people it is supposed to pro-
tect, both transparency (in security sce-
nario it becomes an ex post facto neces-
sity) and accountability structures are
not in place. In such a case, instead of a
stout defence the state must introspect
and put such mechanisms in place to the
satisfaction of people and communities.
The defence of the armed forces in com-
plex situations is as obligatory as protec-
tion and satisfaction of the people. This
also means that the politics of compli-
ance arising out of the current political
culture and the politics of defiance aris-
ing out of electoral populism are both
detrimental to people’s and national
interest. Both the Northeast and J&K
theatres are witnessing this and an intro-
spective national consensus is required,
more particularly because the party in
power and political actors my change on
the Raisina Hill, the theatres would have
to be dealt with people-centric deftness.
Allowing a violent state and administra-
tive culture with legal backing to emerge
with the logic of militancy is what Paddy
Hillyard has described as ‘violence of
jurisprudence’, which is likely to leave a
scar on societal psyche.
Needless to say that trust deficit on
both fronts deserves immediate atten-
tion. Reducing it just to a militancy driven
phenomenon is harming both the inter-
ests. After all neither Sharmila, nor
Manorama and ‘naked’ protest by women
on her rape and murder, not even other
(59)
scores of protests in Manipur, are flashes
in the pan. Each one of them arises out of
deep discontent with a violent day to day
life. Similarly, in J&K issues keep arising
every day and popular anger is wide-
spread. The exposé on Chhattisinghpora
massacre, on mass graves, on rapes and
so on cannot be casually dismissed as
collateral damages. The popular per-
spective on a secure (even from the
armed forces) life, a transparent and
accountable mechanism of security and a
respect for their rights cannot be wished
away by any government and these must
be factored in to articulate a coherent
security policy.
By Way of a Conclusion
In putting the discourse in constitutional
perspective, I would like to draw the
attention of the discerning citizens to the
Constituent Assembly debate on articles
21 and 22. In formulating that ‘No person
shall be deprived of his life or personal
liberty except according to procedure
established by law’, considerable debate
on ‘procedure established by law’ brings
out the apprehension of the framers to
abuse and they wanted a more rigid ‘due
process of law’. Dr. Ambedkar persuaded
the Assembly to his formulation, but
returned a few months later with a new
provision that became Article 22, provid-
ing greater protection against arrests and
other police powers of the state than giv-
en in Article 20. In formulating this he
brought in two clauses of Criminal Proce-
dure Code into the Constitution, giving
greater rights to citizens against arrests
and detentions. No law, not even AFSPA,
under any circumstances should contra-
vene any of the three.
The Supreme Court’s guidelines in
‘Disturbed Areas’ for greater transparency
in arrests reflects a respect for Articles 21
and 22. Given grave exigencies, if AFSPA
or any other law has to stay, it must, but
not at the cost of personal liberty made
sacrosanct by the Constitution. In order
to do away with violence of jurispru-
dence, strong accountability structures
must be built into them. Let us also
remember, in this whole scheme of
things, the police are lurking in the back-
ground and have to do a lot of scaveng-
ing. Any situation, normal or abnormal,
needs a good police. It is sad that India is
still not moving towards it!!!
(The author is Honorary Director, Centre
for Public Affairs, Noida)
December 2011
 g
GEOPOLITICS
INTERNALSECURITY

Wikimedia/Jrapczak

CITIES UNDER
SIEGE
India has 25 of the 100 fastest-growing
cities in the world. About 10 per cent of
India’s population lives in cities. It is in this
scenario that UDDIPAN MUKHERJEE
discusses the threat perception in our
cities from two angles: from across the
border and the Maoists

T
HE INCREASING significance of
cities hardly needs to be
emphasised. According to the
United Nations Population
Fund, the urban-dwelling popu-
lation will swell to nearly 5 billion by 2030.
Today, the world population stands at 7
billion with half of that living in cities. It
can be presumed that, with time, the per-
centage of urban population shall be on
an upward curve.
Of late, City Mayors Foundation, an
international think tank dedicated to
urban affairs, presented a list of 100
‘fastest-growing’ global cities and urban
areas. Interestingly, out of them, 25
belonged to India. As it is, about 17 per
cent of world’s population resides in India.
Thus, simple arithmetic tells us that the
growth of Indian cities is well above nor-
mal proportions rather than its share of

(60)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

DEFENDING THE PEACE: The sight of
heavily armed security personnel has
become a common sight in our cities after
the spate of terror attacks across the country
the world population. Statistically speak-
ing, India has 35 cities, each with a popu-
lation of more than one million. In total,
some 108 million Indians, or about 10 per
cent of the national population lives in the
country’s 35 largest cities.
Threats to global cities
Stephen Graham, Professor at the Newcas-
tle University, writes: “Urban modernity,
despite its promises of absolute techno-
logical and material progress, is actually
utterly interwoven with fragility and vul-
nerability.”
Extrapolating further, military historian
Roger J Spiller says: “Being chiefly human,
cities can be killed.” And Jon Lang does not
provide consolation either as he asserts:
“All too often, the city’s survival hangs in a
precarious balance.”
www.geopolitics.in
g
INTERNALSECURITY
EFFECTIVE
SURVEILLANCE
AND
INTELLIGENCE
CAN HELP
FIGHT
TERRORISM
To refer to Graham again, “Cities, war-
fare and organised political violence have
always been mutual constructions.”
Furthermore, on the sidelines of the
9/11 attacks on New York, the old defen-
sive responses to urban terrorism; viz.
CCTVs, roadblocks, heavily-controlled
street spaces, immigration controls —
seemed almost comically irrelevant. Nev-
ertheless, it still does not overtly imply that
such seemingly outmoded instruments of
anti-terrorism be put in the list of obsoles-
cence altogether.
In these circumstances, terrorism,
among other things like poverty and lack
of a proper environment, remains the
chief nemesis for the global cities. It needs
to be understood that all terror attacks on
global cities shall not be replicas of Sep-
tember 11 — i.e. of the same magnitude
and intensity. For instance, attacks in
Karachi, Lahore, Moscow and London
reveal that following basic approaches in
combating terror could become quite
valuable. Hence, surveillance and moni-
toring with the help of CCTVs, compound-
ed with grass-roots-level human intelli-
gence can be effective tools in thwarting
‘glocal’ (thinking globally and acting local-
ly) terrorist acts.
The peculiar case of India
It is noteworthy that Indian cities, and
especially ‘growing cities’ like Agra, Pune,
Patna, Nasik and others are prone to ter-
rorist and insurgent attacks. The repeated
bomb blasts in Mumbai, Delhi and Ben-
galuru, with occasional hits at Agra and
Pune indicate such a pattern of non-state
actors. Apart from the well-identified and
deadly cross-border bred fundamentalists,
Indian cities face a terror threat from
another quarter. And that comes from the
left-wing insurgents, popularly called the
Maoists.
Vishwaranjan, the top cop of the central
Indian state of Chhattisgarh, had alleged
(61)
in early 2011 that Indian Maoists were
seriously building up their urban bases to
create a steady supply of logistics, techno-
logical help and recruits. In fact, July 2011
reportage in the Indian media mentioned:
“The Maoists are planning to spread their
tentacles in urban areas after years of cre-
ating terror in rural pockets.”
The report further informed that at a
high-level meeting of senior Maoist lead-
ers held in July 2011, a plan was chalked
out to re-organise the set-up of the Com-
munist Party of India (Maoist). The
Maoists have planned separate sections to
look after the affairs of rural as well as the
urban areas, respectively. A source in the
rebel group, according to the report, said
that the new plan(s) for urban areas were
“officially” unveiled from August 15, 2011,
onwards.
As per the plan chalked out for urban
areas, the Maoists attempt to have separate
area committees, sub-zones, zones,
regional and special area committees. The
central committee of the outfit will also
have a separate in-charge for urban affairs.
The committees constituted for urban
affairs will hold meetings to discuss the
public problems in the urban areas. One of
the prominent issues that the Maoists
envisaged to focus was rehabilitation of the
footpath-dwelling population. It was clear
from the report that the Maoists planned
to raise the banner of insurrection in the
Indian cities through popular activism.
Furthermore, in August 2011, while
answering questions in Parliament, Minis-
ter of State for Home Jitendra Singh listed
Bengaluru, Mumbai, New Delhi, Kolkata
and Chennai among 10 Indian cities
where the presence of guerrillas had been
detected.
Hence, it cannot probably be termed a
coincidence that there have been arrests
by the Indian Police (between 2007 and
2011), of prominent Maoist leaders from
cities such as New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune,
Thane, Nasik, Kolkata, Chandigarh and
other urban areas. These are pointers to
the fact that the ultras are spreading their
wings in cities.
R Venkatramani, a researcher based in
New Delhi, articulates at the Institute of
Peace and Conflict Studies, that in the
Indian cities “instead of carrying out
attacks against symbols of the state, the
Maoists are attempting to reach out to
intellectuals and academic scholars on the
one hand and industrial workers, persons
who occupy lower positions in the govern-
ment and students on the other. In this
December 2011

TOO LITTLE TOO LATE: Security
personnel guard the site of the
Delhi High Court bombing this year
way, they are seeking to mobilise the
urban populace as their patrons, support-
ers and sympathisers, rather than as
armed cadres.”
Thus, the incursion of the Maoists in
the cities, in essence, shapes up as a more
deep-rooted problem than the known
external threat from Islamist fundamen-
talists. The threat assumes further impor-
tance as the ultimate aim of the left wing
insurgents is to capture state authority by
defeating the government forces in the
rural areas in a protracted war and finally
zoom in on the cities.
Mao, Che and the Maoist document
As a matter of fact, the Ninth Unity Con-
gress of the Communist Party of India
(Maoists) held in early 2007 had resolved
to take the struggle into urban areas. The
document of the Maoists at the Ninth
Congress read thus: “Working class leader-
ship is the indispensable condition for the
New Democratic Revolution (NDR) in
India. Working class has to send its
advanced detachments to rural areas.”
Thus, being the centres of concentra-
tion of the industrial proletariat (industrial
workers), urban areas play an important
part in the political strategy of the NDR.
The task of the party in urban areas is to
mobilise and organise the proletariat in
performing its crucial leadership role.
According to the Indian Maoists, “The
specific characteristics of revolutionary
war in India is to determine the military
strategy as that of protracted people’s war
— of establishing revolutionary base areas
www.geopolitics.in
g
INTERNALSECURITY
first in the countryside where the enemy
(read the government) is militarily weak
and then to gradually surround and cap-
ture the cities, which are bastions of the
enemy forces.” It is clear from the Maoists’
document that the armed struggle and the
movement in the rural areas will play the
primary role; whereas the work in the
cities will play a secondary role, comple-
mentary to the rural work.
The legendary Mao Tse-tung had said:
“The final objective of the revolution is the
capture of the cities, the enemy’s main
bases, and this objective cannot be
achieved without adequate work in the
cities.” The charismatic Che Guevara too
opined: “The importance of the urban
struggle is extraordinary.”
The Maoists assess that presently, India
has a larger proportion of the population
in urban areas and a much larger working
class than at the time of the Chinese revo-
lution. This increases the relative impor-
tance of urban work in the particular con-
ditions of the Indian revolution.
Nevertheless, in cities, the counter-
insurgency state forces are very strong and
hence the Maoists are careful while estab-
lishing bases. Since a steady supply of
urban cadre is necessary to fulfil the needs
of the rural movement and to fuel the pro-
tracted people’s war, establishment of
urban bases is imperative for the Maoists.
Why an urban base?
An urban base provides logistical support
to the armed struggle, i.e. technical and
medical help. It further helps send cadres
(62)
H C Tiwari
to rural areas. The Maoists also plan to
infiltrate into enemy organisations such as
the police, para-military and military. They
attempt to do so by conducting propagan-
da warfare; viz. upholding the problems of
the ordinary constables and soldiers.
Thus a favourable condition exists in
the urban areas in India for the building of
broad mass fronts against the state struc-
tures. At least that is the evaluation of the
Indian Maoists. It may also be inferred that
the Maoists are venturing into the Indian
cities with obvious intentions of solidify-
ing and extending their networks and in
addition to that, they are in the process of
colluding with other terrorist outfits based
in the Northeast, Bangladesh and Nepal,
which have grave security implications for
the Indian State.
Though the fast-growing Indian cities
are vulnerable from cross-border terror
attacks and the blasts may be heard from
far-off places like New York, a much more
lethal attack comes from the local insur-
gents. India, at present, finds itself
enmeshed in a confrontation of capital-
liberalism vis a vis Mao’s communism,
entangled in a showdown between city
culture and rural squeaks and entwined
with the competing branches of growth in
gross domestic product and a subversive
tendency, which wishes to wreck from
within the democratic ethos of the
nation.
(The author teaches at BPPIMT, Kolkata,
and is a strategic analyst at ITS, Landshut,
Germany)
December 2011
 geopolitics
DIPLOMACY

THE KHAN IMPACT

pakistanileaders.com.pk

Pakistan's legendary cricketer now wants to play a long political innings.

Will he succeed?
europebiz.wordpress.com

MAKING
SAARC WHAT IS WRONG
RELEVANT WITH EURO?
PIB
 g
GEOPOLITICS
SPECIALREPORT

Pakistan’s most celebrated

cricketer is now his country’s
most talked-about politician.
But what is his politics? Is he
for status quo? Or, is he going
to be a catalyst for change?
MOONIS AHMAR discusses
the new phenomenon in
Pakistani politics
supportimrankhan.org

SEMINAL SPEECH: Imran Khan has

taken 15 years to get recognised as a
serious contender in the next elections

TESTING TIMES FOR

IMRAN KHAN
“This is not a flood, this is a tsunami. rally has made an enormous difference. on Pakistan’s political scene. It argued: “If
Anyone up against it will be swept away.” Khan claims both Asif Zardari and Nawaz Imran Khan and PTI can translate a mass
— Imran Khan Sharif have become part of history and of people into a mass of votes and then
the tsunami of PTI will wipe out not only become a new breed of legislators, then

I
mran Khan has finally made it! This
is a general perception which is held
by the majority of people in Pak-
istan, based on his successful public
meeting held at Minar-i-Pakistan on
October 30, 2011. Imran Khan, the chief
of Pakistan Tekrik-i-Insaf (PTI), took 15
years to get recognised as a serious politi-
cian and a powerful contender in the next
general elections.
Although Imran Khan was no doubt a
factor in Pakistan’s politics before his
Lahore public meeting, the October 30
corrupt politicians, but also build a new
Pakistan based on social justice, the rule
of law, good governance and a sovereign
foreign policy. In his Lahore public meet-
ing, he also called on both the leadership
of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pak-
istan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) to
declare their “real” assets, bring back
their “ill-gotten money” from abroad or
face the wrath of people.
The editorial in The News International
of October 31, “Agent of Change?” made a
fair assessment of Imran Khan’s prospects
their worth as change agents is proven.
But there is a long way between the rally
and the ballot box. The challenge will be
to hold on to the numbers and the
momentum, and to deliver a set of poli-
cies that tell us clearly how Imran Khan
and his party is going to pull us back from
the brink.”
Pakistan is certainly in a bad shape
because of its poor economic condition,
rampant corruption, breakdown of law
and order, radicalisation, militancy and
terrorism. In 64 years of Pakistan’s history,

(64)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

the army remained at the helm of affairs
for 35 years and the rest of the time weak
civilian governments under the shadow
of the men in uniform grappled with
issues of bad governance and poverty. But
politicians alone should not be blamed
for Pakistan’s predicament, as those
wielding power directly and by remote
control, are responsible, in fact, for the
mess in the country. How can Imran Khan
hope to change the country for the better
without diminishing the control of Pak-
istan’s military and intelligence agencies,
and why does he think that by bringing
PTI to power, the destiny of the country
will change?
Beyond rhetoric and oversimplifica-
tion of things, it is time a serious assess-
ment is made of the ‘Imran Khan Factor’
in Pakistani politics because the rally and
public meeting of PTI have proved one
thing: there is surely a degree of support,
particularly among youngsters, for him.
Around 55 per cent population of Pak-
istan is below 30 and it is this segment of
society that Imran Khan has targeted. The
Pakistani cricket hero is known for his
www.geopolitics.in
good work in the fields of health and edu-
cation and has always enjoyed support
among the youth of his country.
Since 1996, when he entered politics
and formed the PTI, Imran has faced
enormous criticism on three counts the
first of which is his personal life, for
which he has been labelled a “playboy” or
even a “born-again Muslim”. His western
lifestyle and numerous scandals were
contradictory to his call for an Islamic
system in Pakistan. The second was his
soft corner for Islamic militants, which
gave him the name “Taliban Khan”. The
third charge was that his party, unlike
other mainstream political parties, was a
one-man show because of a dearth of
high-ranking leaders.
Furthermore, he is also criticised for
supporting the regime of General
Musharraf, starting with his seizure of
power from the democratically-elected
government of Nawaz Sharif on October
12, 1999, supporting Musharraf’s 2002
referendum and the passing of the 17th
amendment, which gave indemnity to
the General’s unconstitutional acts.
(65)
g
SPECIALREPORT
Critics also call Imran a man of contra-
dictions because of his dual personality.
On one hand he is called “Taliban Khan”,
but on the other hand, one can observe
him interacting freely with the West. The
fact is that Imran resembles those Pak-
istanis, or for that matter some Muslim
men, who spent their youth in the West
but over a period of time were trans-
formed into ‘Islamists’. He also wants to
lure the secular youth of Pakistan, a fact
which was witnessed in his October 30
public meeting in Lahore, and at the
same time attracts conservative Islamic
segments of Pakistani society. His war cry
to rid Pakistan of poverty and backward-
ness contradicts with his own lifestyle,
which is certainly not of the lower or mid-
dle-class type.
Despite all such contradictions and
weaknesses, Imran Khan is gaining popu-
larity in Pakistan. His rise in politics is
because of a leadership vacuum that exists
in the country today. As the only untested
leader in the corridors of power and with a
relatively charismatic figure, people say
that his turn has come. Suddenly, most of
the political commentators, who for years
used to ignore, ridicule or rather underes-
timate Imran Khan’s position, now think
that he can break the monopoly of both
the PPP and the PML (N) and provide an
alternate leadership to the country which
is literally dying for want of good gover-
nance and social justice.
The myth and reality of Imran Khan
will certainly become clearer in the days
to come. Does the majority of the rural
and urban lower middle class, who con-
stitute 80 per cent of the population of
Pakistan, support him or is he only sup-
ported by a section of the middle or
upper middle class? Some of the grey
areas present in the politics of Imran
Khan and his October 30 public meeting
were examined by Pakistan Today in its
issue of November 3, 2011. According to
that newspaper, which is owned by an
influential Punjabi media person from
Lahore, “Among the audience was a fairly
large number of the present or past alum-
ni of the upscale English-medium
schools who enthusiastically responded
to the bands of their liking playing on the
stage. While a significant section of the
mega city was thus represented at the ral-
ly, there was only a sprinkling of a much
larger section comprising the lower mid-
dle class, the urban poor and labour. Also
disquieting was the absence of a vision
and a hunch for quick fixes in Imran’s
December 2011
 g
SPECIALREPORT

speech. This created the perception that of Imran Khan a “musical concert” spon- particularly those belonging to PML (N),
if electricity was restored and the money sored by the “establishment”, while others and select candidates according to the
stashed away in foreign banks brought ruled out change in Pakistan just on the criteria set by his party. According to an
back, the country would be flowing with basis of holding one public meeting. interview with The New York Times,
milk and honey. There was no word about Political commentators with a neutral Imran Khan said: “People confuse two
the restoration of law and order, the issue stance would agree that, after a long time, types of politics. One is the politics of
of poverty and lawlessness and the the people of Lahore were able to partici- movement. The other is traditional pow-
uncontrolled growth of population that pate in a public meeting without the fear er-based politics. Tehreek-e-Insaf is nev-
continues to nullify whatever remedial of a suicide attack and those who attend- er going to win the traditional way.” If the
measures are taken. It is naive to think ed that meeting also enjoyed the musical non-traditional style of politics is to be
that those who are fighting for a world- concert performed by young artists. As carried out by Imran Khan then he must
wide Khilafat, or continue to kill people Imran Khan offered his Maghrib prayers have a strategy to face two major chal-
belonging to other Muslim sects will on the stage, he also allowed music and lenges: first, how will he cope with tradi-
become peaceful citizens once the US- songs to entertain the people. Imran tional politics in rural Punjab and Sindh
led forces have left Khan’s strategy to depict a progres- where no political party can win without
Afghanistan. Similarly, sive and secular face amidst his the support from feudal and other pow-
there was no word on subtle radical religious lean- erful figures and second, how will he
how to address the ings, succeeded to a large control religious right, particularly in the
grievances of the extent. tribal belt of Pakistan, who because of
smaller The general elec- the anti-American support to him, also
provinces.” tions in Pakistan are want the imposition of their own brand
Based on their due any time after of Shariah? Further, how will he cope
own assess- February 2013. That with the situation when, as suspected by
ments and timeline will give various political analysts, the PPP, the
biases, some Imran Khan a lot of PML (N) and the security establishment
political lead- space to organise his will penetrate the PTI’s rank and file to
ers called the party, further expose discredit him or prevent him from carry-
public meeting his political opponents, ing out his party’s programme which can
hurt the interests of the traditional elite
and political stalwarts? The military and
security establishment of Pakistan, par-
ticularly, are accused of pursuing the
approach by inducting their loyalists to
prevent the strengthening of democratic
political forces in the country.
Imran Khan has invited “clean” and
people with “integrity” to his party.
According to him, those with a corrup-
tion-free background in various political
parties are welcome to join the PTI. But
he has ruled out forging an electoral
alliance with any political party. Senior
Pakistani journalist Rahimullah Yusufzai
Wikimedia\Stephan Röhl

says: “The successful Lahore public meet-

ing seems to have changed all that and
much more. One should now expect a
beeline of politicians, mostly the old
ones, wanting to join the PTI to benefit
from Imran’s popularity. Those who didn’t
do so earlier could be regretting their
indecision. The apolitical and those seek-
ing a change had already made up their
mind and reposed trust in Imran, but the
fence-sitters and the opportunists would
be making their choices now and hoping
to join his bandwagon. This is going to be

MULTIFACETED POLITICIAN: Imran

Khan’s connections with the west have
been an obstacle to his rise in the past

(66)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

pakimag.com
Imran’s biggest challenge, as he has to be
selective in allowing people to gain entry
into the PTI. He has to choose between
the loyalists, the ones who stayed with
him through thick and thin, and the so-
called electables, those with the means to
win at the polls.”
A survey recently conducted by the
US-based polling organisation Pew
Research Center termed Imran Khan a
popular political figure of Pakistan. But,
that doesn’t mean that he is at the thresh-
old of an electoral victory because in
order to seek power he needs to cross the
bridge or, perhaps, many bridges.
If Imran Khan wants to be a catalyst for
change in Pakistan, the situation is ripe
but he has to meet certain conditions.
First, positive change in Pakistan cannot
be brought only by holding rallies and
meetings, it requires an enormous
amount of work at the grassroot level so
that an ordinary person is motivated and
is on board. PTI, at the moment, lacks
organisational skills and resources to
match the critical mass which the founder
of the Pakistan People’s Party, Zulfikar
Bhutto, had created in late 1960s and early
1970s. Even Bhutto, despite his charisma
and landslide electoral success in the
December 1970 general elections in Pun-
jab and Sindh, the two populous provinces
and considered the bastion of power in the
then western wing of Pakistan, was not
able to put the country on the right track.
The issues of poverty, illiteracy, corruption
www.geopolitics.in
g
SPECIALREPORT
IF IMRAN KHAN
PLAYS HIS CARDS
RIGHT, HE CAN
DAMAGE THE
VOTE BANK OF
THE PPP AND THE
PML (N)
and bad governance were not sorted out
during his regime.
Secondly, things have changed in Pak-
istan since 1970, as not only has the pop-
ulation multiplied but even society has
become indifferent to crime, corruption,
violence, extremism and terrorism.
According to some experts, if Pakistan is
not a failed state, it can be described as a
failing state because of serious issues
related to bad governance, terrorism and
worsening of economic conditions. The
surge of the mafia, which can be
described as a state within a state, under-
mines the legitimacy of the authorities.
Despite its demonstration of relative pop-
ularity in Lahore, the PTI is not capable of
dealing with the monstrous issues that
threaten the very survival of Pakistan.
Thirdly, much of Pakistan’s economic
and political predicament is the outcome
of unresolved conflicts with neighbours,
(67)
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: Can Khan
change Pakistan without diminishing
the control of its military and
intelligence agencies?
particularly with India. Imran Khan’s pol-
icy vis-à-vis the Kashmir dispute and nor-
malisation of relations with India is not so
different from other parties. There is no
policy on his part about curtailing
defence expenditure that is a large chunk
of Pakistan’s annual budget because a
deviation from Islamabad’s traditional
policy on Kashmir or downsizing defence
expenditure would mean antagonising
the military establishment.
It is too early to predict the fate of the
PTI in the next general elections but what
is certain is that if Imran Khan plays his
cards well and takes advantage of the
political void — after engaging the silent
majority in his favour and ensuring an
independent election commission — is
above contradictions and, most impor-
tant, motivates the overwhelming majori-
ty of voters to exercise their voting rights,
he can surely damage the vote bank of
both the PPP and the PML (N) and put his
party in a commanding position. So far,
luck is favouring him because of the mess
that has been created by the mainstream
political parties over a period of time but
his political fortune depends on the per-
formance of the PPP and the PML (N) in
the coming elections and the election
campaign of the PTI.
(The author is Professor, Department of
International Relations, University of
Karachi and Director, Programme on
Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution)
December 2011
 g
GEOPOLITICS
GROUNDVIEW

UNDEMOCRATIC
recently found it hard to discover who the
militants actually were. Even Bouthania
Shaaban, the advisor to President Bashar
al-Assad, did not know what was happen-

YEARNINGS
ing in Homs, the main trouble spot. But
according to the Governor of Homs,
Ghassan Abdul-Aal, the troublemakers
are mainly members of the banned Mus-
lim Brotherhood and criminals and
smugglers who operate on the borders
with Turkey and Lebanon. Ghassan also
said that people living in the slums and
rural areas on the fringes of Homs were
Extremists are hijacking the Arab Spring in the midst of also involved. The Governor went on to
western attempts to destabilise the Middle East, writes say that Homs had a large Sunni popula-
tion with a fair share of Islamists who he
SATISH JACOB claimed were being funded by what he
called “foreign powers”. He did

S
YRIA IS much in the not name the foreign powers but
news these days. If one everyone on the streets in Homs
were to believe interna- pointed their finger at America.
tional TV news net- In Homs, I saw a badly dam-
works, the Syrian regime aged military truck in the middle
is soon going to meet the same of a residential area. It had been
fate as other countries in the ambushed earlier in the day. Nine-
Middle East have met in what teen soldiers were reportedly bad-
can be termed “never-ending ly wounded in the attack. We were
Arab Spring”. It was Tunisia taken to a nearby hospital where
where the Arab Spring began in we saw, among others, a little boy
January and it soon brought and a few soldiers hit by bullets.
down Hosni Mubarak’s regime in The child’s mother said he was hit
Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya. by snipers while walking down the
News channels such as the BBC, street. An army officer, who lay
CNN and Al Jazeera are of the wounded in another room, said he
view that there are huge public was injured while trying to shield
demonstrations in Syria against citizens under attack.
the regime of President Bashar According to doctors, on an
al-Assad, who’s been accused of average between ten and fifteen
running what they call an “unde- people were being brought into
mocratic and oppressive rule”. the hospital every day. According
There have been incidents of to Ghassan Abdul-Aal, the Gover-
violence in just three Syrian cities nor of Homs, more than 100 army
bordering Lebanon and Turkey. soldiers have died so far. Homs
The official death toll in the ten- shuts down by night. It was dark
month clashes between govern- when we were leaving the city
ment troops and protesters is and it definitely appeared tense.
thirdage.com

3000 dead and 1700 injured. The army’s presence was mini-
In their reports, the interna- mal. The Governor explained that
tional networks do not say who this was a deliberate attempt to
the protesters are. But a group of deny a handle to America by not
Indian journalists and academ- UNITED IN ANGER: The fall of authoritarian regimes during deploying a large number of sol-
ics including this author, who the Arab Spring and sporadic violence by the Islamists seem to diers at any level and the strategy
were invited to visit Syria, have united a majority of the Syrians was to exercise restraint.

(68)
www.geopolitics.in December 2011

As we were leaving, large crowds sur-
rounded us chanting: “Allah, Syria, Assad.”
The chants quickly changed to “Allah, Syr-
ia, Hind” as soon as they realised that we
were Indians. The popularity of India in
Syria is at its peak after its recent vote of
abstention in the UN Security Council
was reported in the country.
In Damascus, Aleppo and the Mediter-
ranean resort of Latakia, people on the
streets greeted us by shouting, “Thank
you India”, and the shopkeepers insisted
on giving us tokens of appreciation.
So, what is the real picture in Syria? It is
clear that the situation in Homs and two
other border towns is tense and that the
violence has been going on continuously
for months. But so far, it has not spread to
other parts of the country. Damascus and
Aleppo, the two largest cities together
account for more than 50 per cent of the
population of Syria. The streets there
were bustling in support of President
Assad. He is seen as the symbol of a sov-
ereign Syria even by those who do not
hesitate to point out that his government
had failed to fulfil its promise of imple-
menting reforms and holding elections.
The fall of authoritarian regimes in the
Middle East during the current Arab
Spring, and sporadic violence by the
Islamists seem to have united a majority
of the Syrians, who appear to be deter-
mined to isolate the small number of
extremists to succeed in their rebellion
and demand for democracy through a
regime change with the help of America
and NATO.
Syria is truly a pluralistic and secular
country. Ten per cent of its population are
Christian and there are even Jewish and
Armenian quarters in Damascus and the
ancient city of Alleppo. In the Mediter-
ranean resort of Latakia, a few young
women clad in jeans and smart tops and
blond hair puffed at their sheeshe told us,
“Syria would not tolerate US interfer-
ence.”
So be it. But they did not seem to
realise that in a unipolar world, America’s
will prevails. Ten years ago, America and
its allies destroyed Saddam’s Iraq and
only recently hunted Libya’s Gaddafi like
a criminal. I fear that this ancient and his-
toric land of Syria, which gave the world
its first alphabets, may meet the same
fate as Libya, Yemen and Egypt did .
UNDER FIRE: President Assad is seen as the symbol of a
sovereign Syria even by those who point out that his government
failed to fulfil its promise of implementing reforms
www.geopolitics.in
g
GROUNDVIEW
It will almost be a repeat of Iraq and sharia rule, and in Tunisia, a conservative
Libya. It is true that Gaddafi was a cruel Islamic Enhada has emerged as the single
dictator and amassed wealth for himself largest party. In Egypt and Syria, the Mus-
and his extended family but he also lim Brotherhood enjoys political support.
shared the country’s revenue from oil Piqued by the recent declaration by
generously to modernise Libya and was interim rulers in favour of sharia laws, in
always ready to lend a helping hand to some Middle Eastern countries, nearly 80
the emerging middle class. It is an open international human rights and secularist
secret that he gave interest-free loans to activists have launched a campaign for a
young couples to acquire homes and free and secular Middle East and North
higher education. Africa. I will personally be sad to see Syria
It was the same story with Saddam go fundamentalist. It was a sheer joy to
Hussain of Iraq. During his regime, the see fashionable Syrian women in tight
Iraqis enjoyed economic wellbeing jeans and spaghetti tops
unheard of in other parts of the world. smoking “Sheesha”
Diesel and petrol were free not only for on the roadside
the Iraqis but even for drivers from neigh- cafes in Dam-
bouring Syria and Jordan. ascus and the
Every citizen, irrespective of his posi- Mediterranean
tion in civil society received every con- resort of
sumer item for free from the government. Latakia.
Saddam’s regime was also secular
though he was intolerant when it came to
dissent. He massacred Kurds killing
thousands of villagers in the north and
his troops ruthlessly crushed a rebellion
by the Shias following the invasion of
Kuwait. But he took care of his people as
long as they refrained from politics.
The western world accused him of
PIB
colluding with al Qaida to attack
America. Saddam was also
accused of storing lethal
weapons which turned out
to be a cooked-up claim
by Britain and America.
President Bush said he
got rid of Saddam to
establish democracy in
Iraq. Ten years later, Iraq
is still plagued by vio-
lence. Iraq has huge oil
reserves but now it is
importing oil from
Kuwait for its domestic
consumption.
Even if America suc-
ceeded in toppling
Asad’s regime, as it has
done in quick succes-
sion in Tunisia, Egypt,
Yemen and Libya, its
problems in the Mid-
dle East may continue.
In Libya, the ruling
council has declared it
would introduce
December 2011
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 g
GEOPOLITICS
DIPLOMACY
THE EURASIAN
DREAM
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is pushing a new
idea. He wants to create an “Eurasian Union” to integrate
the independent republics of the former USSR into a single
economic — and eventually political — super-state,
writes ARUN MOHANTY
R
USSIAN PRIME Minister
Vladimir Putin’s recent article
titled “New Integration Project
for Eurasia — The Future In
Making” has triggered an
unprecedented flurry of reaction ranging
from euphoria to outright rejection of the
idea across the world. The Izvestia article
penned by Putin, who is expected to be
the President for at least the next 12 years,
reflects his geopolitical vision of Russia for
years and maybe for decades to come.
It is for the first time since the col-
lapse of the Soviet Union (USSR) that
a Russian leader has so forcefully
talked about reintegrating a geopo-
litical space that would be called
the Eurasian Union, an idea that
smacks of the revival of the
Soviet Union and hence sends
panic waves through the
strategic community in
the West.
While Russophobes
across the globe
interpret Putin’s
vision of creating
a Eurasian Union
REVIVING PAST GLORIES: It has been for the
first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union
that a Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has talked
forcefully about reintegrating a geopolitical space
that would be called the Eurasian Union
PIB
(70)
as the rebuilding of the Soviet Union, oth-
ers hail it as an attempt to restore Russia’s
centuries-old status as a global power,
which cannot be accomplished without
the integration of the Slavic and Turkic
territory of Czarist Russia or Soviet
Union. The Russian leader calls the
scheduled kick starting of the Common
Economic Space consisting of Russia,
Kazakhstan and Belarus from January 1,
2012, a ‘historic milestone’, which would
be followed by a strong economic, politi-
cal and humanitarian integration of this
increasingly unified territory.
The vibrant multi-track integration
process gathering momentum in the for-
mer Soviet space during last few years has
been hard to miss. The creation of Putin’s
Eurasian Union on a significant part of
the former Soviet territory would be
based on a much higher degree of volun-
tary integration. Regarding the fear of the
revival of the USSR, Putin emphasises:
“None of this entails any kind of revival of
the Soviet Union in one way or the other.
It would be naïve to try to restore or emu-
late something that has been consigned
to history. But these times call for close
integration based on new values, and a
new political and economic foundation.”
Putin has, in the past, paid great trib-
ute to the former Soviet Union. In the
immediate aftermath of the Beslan ter-
rorist attack that killed 330 children in
December 2011

2004, he had described the dissolution of
the Soviet Union as the ‘greatest geopolit-
ical catastrophe of the century’. Now the
Russian leader highlights: “We have a
great inheritance from the Soviet Union.
We inherited an infrastructure, spe-
cialised production facilities, and a com-
mon linguistic, scientific and cultural
space. It is in our common interests to
use these resources for our common
development.”
Why does Putin’s initiative scare the
West? Because, the successful realisation
of Putin’s vision has the potential to lead
to serious geopolitical and geoeconomic
changes that do not correspond to the
concept of the “New Global Order”. The
integration project for Eurasia implies a
strong Russia’s independent foreign poli-
cy, a challenge to the US-dominated
unipolar world and American hegemony
in world affairs. Today, Russia seems
ready not only to initiate but also to build
a new supranational association
opposed to Atlanticism (based around
the Atlantic Ocean: the United States on
one side and West Europe on the other)
and neo-liberalism.
Putin proposes to build something that
would spell the end of Western domina-
tion. Putin’s vision for building a “strong
supranational structure, capable of being
one of the poles of the contemporary
world and play the role of an effective
‘bridge’ between Europe and a dynami-
cally developing Asia-Pacific region” is a
serious challenge to the US hegemony in
global affairs and a scary signal for the
western geopolitical fraternity.
The end of the bipolar world, the disin-
tegration of the USSR and the ‘victory
march of democracy’ did not end the
struggle for global domination, which is
reflected in myriad military interventions
against sovereign states and endless
information war, coupled with the use of
‘soft power’ for regime change in coun-
tries that resist to fall in line. It is the
Eurasian space that remains the main
battlefield for global domination. In this
connection, it is worth recalling the
famous words of eminent British geopo-
litical expert Harold Mackinder “He, who
controls the Global Island (Eurasia),
would rule over the world.”
Putin writes,”We suggest a powerful
supranational association capable
of becoming one of the poles in the
modern world as an efficient bridge
between Europe and the dynamic Asia-
Pacific region. This project also implies
www.geopolitics.in
g
DIPLOMACY
transitioning to closer coordination in
economic and currency policies in the
Customs Union and Commonwealth of
Independent States and establishing a
full-fledged economic union.” If we go by
Lenin’s words that economics is concen-
trated version of politics, Putin’s econom-
ic union would turn into a political union
sooner than later. And this is exactly what
scares the West.
On October 18, 2011, eight members of
Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS), a Russia-dominated loose alliance
of 11 former Soviet republics, (Russia,
Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzs-
tan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Armenia)
signed an agreement in Saint Petersburg
on the creation of a free-trade-zone
which had been on the negotiation table
for two decades. The creation of the
Eurasian Union is the obvious and logical
continuation of the emerging free-trade
zone.
The emergence of a Customs union
consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan and
Belarus, which is the highest level of inte-
gration achieved so far on former Soviet
territory, emerges not only as a huge
regional economic block, but also prom-
ises to be a significant pole in the increas-
ingly multi-polar world. In his article
Putin says that these three countries were
making the integration process a com-
prehensible, sustainable and long-term
project that would function independ-
ently from political fluctuations in these
countries. Putin emphasises that this was
the prime objective when the Eurasian
Economic community, consisting of sev-
eral CIS countries of Slavic and Turkic ori-
gin, was set up in the year 2000. It was
this rationale of close, mutually-benefi-
cial cooperation, and the understanding
of common strategic national interests
that led Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
to form the Customs Union.
It took nearly two decades to realise
the necessity of the formation of an effec-
tive Customs Union on the territory of the
former Soviet Union. The first Customs
Union was set up by Russia, Belarus, and
Kazakhstan in 1995, which was joined by
Kyrgyzstan in 1996 and Tajikistan in 1999.
However, this Customs Union did not
take off then, as the participant countries
could not come to any agreement to the
resolve the issue of unified Customs tariff.
These five countries again formed the
Eurasian Economic Community in 2000
on the basis of the proposed Customs
union, with Ukraine, Armenia and
(71)
Moldova enjoying observer status in the
new association. However, this time too,
the integration objectives such as forma-
tion of unified financial, energy and
transport market, free movement of
goods, capital and services could not be
achieved because of contradictions
among the member-countries.
In November 2009, the leaders of Rus-
sia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed the
much-awaited and much-debated agree-
ment to set up their Customs Union,
poised to be the largest market in Eurasia
with a 172 million population, $2.4 tril-
lion worth of GDP and $1 trillion worth of
trade turnover. This economic union
would occupy a significant place in the
international oil and grain market with its
total oil resources touching 95 billion bar-
rels and grain exports constituting 18 per
cent of the global market. It wasn’t just
analysts and politicians, even the heads
of these three countries could barely
believe the formation of this Customs
Union till the last moment, since all
attempts during last two decades to expe-
dite the economic integration in the for-
mer Soviet space has met with little suc-
cess.
Finally, the Presidents of Russia,
Belarus and Kazakhstan signed a package
of documents that included agreements
on a unified Customs, tariff and Customs
code at Minsk on November 27, 2009,
which raised the hope and optimism that
the Customs Union would be kickstarted
soon.
The process of the formation of the
Customs Union had to pass through sev-
eral stages with unified Customs tariffs
taking effect from January 1, 2010 that
virtually heralded the functioning of the
union. With the unified Customs code
becoming effective from July 1, 2011, the
three member countries now have effec-
tive common customs territory from the
middle of 2011. Experts are confident that
the customs integration process this time
would be a real one, not nominal or
superficial, with the customs posts
between their borders removed, and all
the customs control transferred to exter-
nal borders.
The ultimate goal of the integration
process is the formation of a unified eco-
nomic space stipulating unified rules and
regulations of economic management
and a common currency. For the first
time ever, countries of the Customs
union have agreed to transfer part of their
sovereignty to a supra-national body.
December 2011

While deciding the unified Customs tariff,
Belarus and Kazakhstan had to make cer-
tain concessions to Russia as a result of
which 92 per cent of the tariffs corre-
spond to Russian Customs duty. Belarus
and Kazakhstan would have to raise the
duty on a significant part of their import-
ed goods while Russia has to decrease it
by 1 per cent. The duty structure planned
to defend the domestic market during the
crisis period would be drastically
reviewed later, with some of the duties
completely scrapped.
According to the macroeconomic pro-
portions of the member states of the
Union, Russia would like to get 90 per cent
all import duty. However, Belarus and
Kazakhstan apparently expect compensa-
tion for the loss they are likely to face as a
result of the hike in tariff barriers.
The economic effect of the emerging
Customs Union may not be the same for
all its member countries. Russia is likely
to benefit more in the beginning as its
industry will have new markets for its
products. However, Belarus and Kaza-
khstan can also expect substantial divi-
dends as Minsk plans to revive its export
to Russia that has witnessed a 50 per cent
decline last year. It would also benefit
hugely by concessions on hydrocarbon
prices. According to experts, the common
effect from the emerging Customs Union
for its members might constitute 15 per
cent of their GDP growth. The new Cus-
toms Union would benefit all three
countries, with Russia receiving
about $400 billion, and Belarus and
Kazakhstan getting $16 billion each
as profit.
Other CIS countries are
also expected to join the new
Customs Union as it promis-
es to benefit all of them.
While Kyrgyzstan is on the
verge of joining the Cus-
toms Union, Tajikistan is
holding negotiations and is
likely to join the new
organisation in the near
future.
If other CIS countries
join the new Customs
Union, then it would create a
PIB
significant market and a huge
A NEW EURASIAN ORDER: (Left
to right) President Nursultan
Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, Dmitry
Medvedev of Russia and Alyaksandr
Lukashenka of Belarus
www.geopolitics.in
g
DIPLOMACY
common territory that would facilitate
development of all member-countries
and attract more investment. According
to experts, the smaller countries would
benefit more by this kind of union as they
would have access to Russian resources at
concessional prices. By giving economic
concessions to smaller countries,
Moscow is creating the economic basis
for the creation of inter-national political
structure to its advantage.
In his Izvestia article, Putin stressed that
it was crucial that “the Common Econom-
ic Space” be rooted in coordinated action
in key institutional areas such as macro-
economics, ensuring competition, techni-
cal regulations, agricultural subsidies and
transport tariffs. Later, this framework
would include common visa and migra-
tion policies and permitting border con-
trols between the member states to be
removed. In fact, the new Customs Union
is using the experience of Schengen Agree-
ment that benefits Europeans as well as all
those who come to work, study, or holiday
in the European Union.
This Customs Union will open up new
vistas of opportunities for entrepreneurs
from all member countries. Entrepre-
neurs from Russia, Kazakhstan and
Belarus will have the freedom to choose
which of the three countries to register
their companies, where they wish to do
(72)
business and file their customs registra-
tion. This will be a serious incentive for
national administrative systems to start
improving their market institutions,
administrative procedures and their busi-
ness and investment.
It is a known fact that Europe took four
long decades to move from the European
Coal and Steel community to the Euro-
pean Union. The emergence of a Customs
Union and a common economic space in
Eurasia, however, is taking place at a
much faster pace as it takes the advan-
tages and weaknesses of regional eco-
nomic associations into account while
building their own association.
A major roadblock that the Customs
Union might hit is the issue of the admis-
sion of its members into the World Trade
Organisation (WTO). All three countries
decided to join WTO together in June,
2011. However, when they faced serious
difficulties in course of the negotiations
for their joint admission into WTO, they
decided to join the organisation separate-
ly but on common terms and conditions.
The fact that Kazakhstan has to conduct
additional negotiations since Russia has
already achieved certain favourable con-
ditions from WTO, and Belarus is at the
beginning of the negotiation process
makes their admission process compli-
cated. Moreover, the emergence of a new
integrated economic space on the eastern
border of Europe does not evoke any
enthusiasm from the latter, as the new
Customs Union would drastically curtail
the West’s ability to influence former’s
economic policy.
Be that as it may, the rapid eco-
nomic reintegration of the former
Soviet space is likely to lead to
accelerated political integra-
tion in this region.
Though the Russian
Prime Minister has
said that his project
does not envisage the
revival of the Soviet
Union, Moscow’s
geopolitical rival —
the West — has not
missed the point and
has started hysterics
about a possible Soviet
revival.
(The author is a
Professor at School of
International Studies,
JNU)
December 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
DIPLOMACY

SAARC: ELEPHANT? A WHITE

Ever since its formation in 1985, doubts have been raised over the relevance of the South
Asia Association for Regional Cooperation as it is neither an economic bloc nor a grouping
for geopolitics. But is this assessment fair? YAMINI CHOWDHURY talks to a cross section
of experts to find out

S
outh Asia, a vast region vexed by
conflict, formed the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooper-
ation, (SAARC), in 1985. The
forum, imbued with the objec-
tive of strengthening cooperation within
South Asia on matters of common inter-
est, was established by seven founding
members — India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives.
The year 2005 marked the entry of
Afghanistan into its fold. The nine-
observer nations, including the United
States, Iran, Japan, South Korea, the EU
and China, have given the Kathmandu-
headquartered multilateral organisation
an international dimension.
The SAARC charter behoves its mem-
ber states “to promote the welfare of the
people of South Asia; to strengthen coop-
eration among themselves in internation-
al forums, and with other developing
countries, on matters of common inter-
ests; and to cooperate with international
regional organisations with similar aims
and purposes”. Among its avowed objec-
tives include the promotion of coopera-
tion in eleven areas, as diverse as agricul-
ture, education, culture and sports to sci-
ence, technology, communication and
rural development.
Covering an area of approximately 5.1
million square kilometres and represent-
ing close to 23 per cent of the world’s
population, SAARC is arguably one of the
largest regional associations in the world
that is characterised by multiple strands.
On one hand, it is representative of com-
mon values entrenched in cultural, social,
historical and ethnic traditions. But on
the other hand, its functioning is greatly
wounded by the enormity of issues such
as abject poverty, overpopulation, mis-
governance, systemic instability and
above all, violence in all its complexities
— ethnic, communal and religious.
The recently-concluded 17th SAARC
Summit in Maldives raises certain funda-
mental questions — Is SAARC really an
emblem for South Asia’s aspirations and
expectations? Has the association been

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www.geopolitics.in December 2011

SOUTH ASIAN FAMILY: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with Heads of State of SAARC countries at the inaugural session of the
17th SAARC Summit at Addu Atoll in Maldives on November 10, 2011
able to deliver on its perceptible and pos-
itive promises? Has the real focus of the
forum paled into insignificance due to the
sustained media attention on the Indo-
Pak conflict? How can the forum leverage
the tremendous economic potential of
South Asia? Above all, how can SAARC, a
regional body, acquire a more assertive
and effective global presence?
Analysts believe that the extremely
volatile security architecture in South
Asia precludes the rise of SAARC to great
heights on the world arena. Almost all
nations are dealing with virulent funda-
mentalism, internal strife and bloody
conflicts. So if the orgy of violence in
Kashmir and the north-east look
intractable in India, its neighbours, Pak-
istan and Bangladesh, continue to be rat-
tled by Islamic fundamentalists. The
India-Pakistan trust deficit, the Maoist
rebellion in Nepal, the Afghan quagmire
and the ethnic strife in Sri Lanka have
threatened to shake the edifice of South
Asian unity. The remaining two states —
Bhutan and Maldives — are small nations
that have their own set of headaches —
political, economic and social. Apart
from the strong, political undercurrents,
poverty, overpopulation and galloping
corruption are inextricably entrenched in
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DIPLOMACY
the region, thus preventing SAARC from
making sustainable progress. If
Bangladesh has been able to promote an
inclusive social agenda and if Sri Lanka
has managed to quell a prolonged civil
war, it has been achieved outside the
SAARC framework.
Nepali Congress leader, Dr Prakash
Sharan Mahat, had recently described
SAARC summits as “just get-togethers of
heads of South Asian countries”. It is a
common utterance within the region,
considering the perceived failure of the
forum to ensure expeditious implemen-
tation of their foundational ideals. With
institutions, established to promote
regional cooperation, functioning sub-
optimally and continued sluggishness in
advancing inter-country economic and
bilateral relations, SAARC has earned the
sobriquet of a ‘political white elephant’.
Are such criticisms fair? “It is grossly
incorrect to say that SAARC has failed to
achieve its founding objectives,” empha-
sises former Indian Foreign Secretary,
Shashank. “The forum was established
with the primary objective of alleviating
hostile feelings among member states.
Further, the association has been able to
arrive at mutually favourable decisions
relating to free trade, poverty alleviation,
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social welfare, connectivity and common
facilities,” he asserts.
Dismissing remarks about the inherent
fragility of the association in comparison
with other regional blocs such as the
European Union and ASEAN, Inderpal
Khosla, Editor-in-Chief of South Asian
Survey maintains, “Having conducted 17
summits in the last 25 years of its estab-
lishment, SAARC definitely has a better
track record vis-à-vis ASEAN, which con-
ducted its first summit in 1976, nine years
after it came into existence in 1967.”
Commenting on the iniquitous compari-
son with the EU, he points out: “The cir-
cumstances which impelled nations in
Europe to coalesce under one identity,
like the imminent threat of war, do not
exist in South Asia. Since the collective
threat perceptions here are different,
there is really no compelling incentive for
nations to band together.”
The systematic inability of SAARC to
implement previous agreements with
forcefulness is another reason for it
being viewed through a negative prism.
In the recent past, several agreements
and conventions, including the SAARC
Integrated Programme of Action or SIPA,
the SAARC Food Security Reserve, the
Regional Convention on Suppression of
December 2011

PIB
SHARED PLATFORM: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, flanked by Union Minister
for External Affairs, SM Krishna and the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Hina Rabbani Khar, at the joint press interaction on the sidelines of
the 17th SAARC Summit
Terrorism and the SAARC University
have been announced amid much fan-
fare. But they have failed to generate
interest among South Asians. Veterans
like Shashank attribute this to “a change
in leadership, which brings with it the
promise of new initiatives, ideas and
solutions that may not always conform
to established frameworks”.
According to Dr. Bhuvan Chandra
Upreti, Senior Faculty Member of the
South Asia Studies Centre, Jaipur, “SAARC
has been completely overshadowed by
the prolonged sparring between two
nuclear-powered neighbours — India
and Pakistan — and hence, an atmos-
phere of distrust has permeated most
summits.” “Further”, stresses Dr Upreti,
“the members are still to get over their
colonial past, which has been a cause of
many misunderstandings and conflicts.”
It is an opinion shared by Chloe
Choquier, Consultant on Security and
Human Rights issues for the Organisation
for Security and Co-Operation in Europe
(OSCE) in Warsaw, Poland. “As long as
relations between India and Pakistan
dominate annual summits, SAARC won’t
be a credible regional actor. It is critical
for India and Pakistan to become leaders
in the regional effort to build trust
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DIPLOMACY
between members. Both Pakistan and Sri
Lanka are in favour of amending the
SAARC charter in order to enable discus-
sion on bilateral issues. Since economic
cooperation cannot be achieved without
a resolution of political issues, India, as a
leading member of SAARC, has a respon-
sibility in convening informal bilateral
negotiations with its neighbours to deal
with regional disputes, which would
allow SAARC’s annual summits to stimu-
late regional integration”, stresses Chloe
Despite these political differences and
border disputes, experts like Inderpal
Khosla consider SAARC to be “reasonably
successful on its own terms, as on some
occasions, the conclaves have stimulated
high-level dialogue between contentious
neighbours”. Concurs Shashank, adding:
“Every regional forum has a chequered
record, and SAARC is no different. The
inability of SAARC to achieve complete
regional integration is its Achilles’ heel.”
Over the years, economic integration of
SAARC members has been acknowledged
as the most decisive step towards achiev-
ing sustained growth and stability. The
close proximity of the countries in the
region and membership of the World Trade
Organisation (WTO) has not stimulated
regional trade, which constitutes a dismal
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5 per cent of the total trade in the region.
Dr Rajesh Chadha, Senior Fellow,
National Council of Applied Economic
Research, explains the reasons for the lim-
ited economic integration of South Asia.
“South Asian countries chose to adopt
strong inward looking policies from the
1950s. Trade liberalisation started in the
region from the late 70s and accelerated in
the 90s. Despite sustained efforts towards
economic integration since 1985, intra-
regional trade has diminished from 40 per
cent in the 1940’s to about 5 per cent, mak-
ing South Asia more protectionist than
East or South-east Asia. Political tensions
have further constrained progress on a
regional scale leading to several bilateral
trading agreements among SAARC mem-
bers”, articulates Dr Chadha.
However, economists like Dr. Shankar
Acharya, Honorary Professor and Mem-
ber, Board of Governors at the Indian
Council for Research on International
Economic Relations (ICRIER), believe
that even though the region was always
guided by economic imperatives, the
presence of significant bilateral, political
problems relegated this important agen-
da to the background. “The liberalisation
regime of the 90’s combined with the
Look-East Policy encouraged India, the
December 2011

HEARTFELT BONHOMIE: Rahul Khullar, Secretary, Ministry of Commerce, receiving his
Pakistani counterpart, Zafar Mahmood
most dominant player in the SAARC
economy, to adopt an outward-looking
approach towards its neighbours in South
Asia,” maintains Dr. Acharya.
As India, like the rest of South Asia,
gained considerable economic clout on
the world stage, it became essential to
focus on the imperatives — increased FDI
and greater market access. It was this out-
ward-looking approach that paved the
way for the South Asian Free Trade Area
or SAFTA, the first concrete step towards
ensuring complete economic integration
of the region, after the South Asian Pref-
erential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) in
1995. SAFTA came into effect in 2006 with
the objective of “eliminating non-tariff
barriers, facilitating the cross-border
movement of goods, promoting condi-
tions of fair competition in the free-trade
area and establishing a framework for
further regional cooperation to expand
and enhance the mutual benefits of the
agreement”.
Assessing the success achieved by SAF-
TA, Inderpal Khosla states, “The Free Trade
Area has been established without any of
the states giving up their sovereign equali-
ty, independence and territorial integrity.”
Adds Dr. Acharya, “India’s free-trade
agreements with Sri Lanka and Bhutan,
and the trade and transit agreement with
Nepal are part of this vision for greater
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DIPLOMACY
PIB
economic integration envisaged under
SAFTA. The future definitely holds a lot of
promise for the region.”
The establishment of the South Asia
Forum at the 16th Summit in Thimphu
enabled SAARC to address the challenge
of translating institutions into actions.
“The Forum”, states Chloe Choquier,
“which gathered for the first time in Del-
hi on 8-9 September 2011, is a positive
element in terms of SAARC’s capacity for
action. By involving representatives from
the government, think-tanks, academia,
media, civil society and chambers of
commerce, the South Asia Forum also
enables a new kind of dialogue between
members. In the long run, if discussions
were to happen at the level of the South
Asia Forum, the role of SAARC summits
would then be to translate decisions into
concrete results”, she concludes.
For SAARC to emerge as a potent trad-
ing bloc, it must adapt to the changing
regional dynamics and take its economic
agenda forward. Dr Chadha affirms,
“There is scope for achieving substantial
gains from increased trade and invest-
ment through deeper regional integra-
tion. South Asia as a bloc needs to engage
actively with East Asia. India, being the
largest member of the group, must lead
the initiative and build confidence
among other SAFTA members. The indi-
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cations of Pakistan granting MFN status
to India and revoking the negative list of
imports by the end of 2012 has added val-
ue to such wider initiatives.”
However, there is a lot that needs to be
done for intra-SAARC economic coopera-
tion to reach a sustainable trajectory. “If
South Asia has to acquire a greater eco-
nomic cachet, there must be continued
focus on improving connectivity, which
would stimulate a greater people-to-peo-
ple contact. Trade-related issues such as
import duties, customs, transit points,
taxes and quotas also need to be
addressed expeditiously”, suggests Inder-
pal Khosla.
Shashank recommends, “Instead of
looking for solutions within the SAARC
framework, member states must build
ties, both collectively and individually,
with other regional institutions such as
EAS, ECO, BIMSTEC, ASEAN, APEC and
the SCO. Apart from improving road, rail,
air and sea links, we also need to revamp
our archaic visa regime by simplifying
regulations, immigration procedures and
documentation. But before that people
within their own countries must be
empowered adequately.”
The 17th SAARC Summit in Addu city in
Maldives from 10 to 11 November did live
up to its theme of “Building Bridges”, con-
sidering the thaw that the conclave trig-
gered in Indo-Pak bilateral relations. The
eight-member nations reaffirmed their
commitment towards early resolution of
non-tariff barriers and ad valorem duties,
promotion of intra-regional long-term
investment, conclusion of agreements for
Energy Cooperation, Regional Railways
and the Indian Ocean Cargo and Passen-
ger Ferry Service and the implementation
of the Thimphu Statement on Climate
Change. India’s decision to slash the sensi-
tive list for Least Developed Countries
under SAFTA from 480 tariff lines to just 25
and to provide zero-basic customs-duty
access to all items removed from the list
was welcomed by all member-states.
Former President of Maldives, Mau-
moon Abdul Gayoom once stated,
“SAARC is now at the threshold of a new
dawn, one which opens up new vistas of
cooperation, global partnerships and a
more robust regional identity.” It remains
to be seen if SAARC seizes the opportuni-
ties of the 21st century and emerges as a
crucible of modern political thought and
steady economic growth.
(The author is a freelance journalist)
December 2011
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GEOPOLITICS
DIPLOMACY

INDIA AND THE

EURO CRISIS
With Europe becoming an important destination for cross-
border investments and overseas acquisitions for Indian
companies, there have been serious negotiations between
India and the European Union for broad-based bilateral
trade and investment agreements. However, under an
increasingly uncertain European economic climate, it is
becoming clear that bilateral deals will not be ready for
signature in the next EU-India summit scheduled early next
year, writes GULSHAN SACHDEVA

T
HE TWO-year-old Eurozone
crisis has now entered a dan-
gerous phase. The European
sovereign debt crisis has grown
into one of the biggest chal-
lenges the European Union (EU) has
faced in recent times. European Com-
mission President Jose Manuel Barroso
recently described it as “the most serious
challenge of a generation”. Already two
high-profile Prime Ministers of the Euro-
zone have become victims of this crisis
and Eurocrats have taken charge of
Greece and Italy. The debt crisis pressure
helped oust Greece’s George Papandreou
who has been replaced by former Euro-
pean Central Bank (ECB) Vice President
Lucas Papademos. Similarly, in Italy Sil-
vio Berlusconi’s government has been
replaced by a technocratic government
under the former European Commis-
sioner Mario Monti. For the moment,
difficult to run a system with a single
monetary policy and 27 different fiscal
policies. So, unless member states trans-
fer significant fiscal sovereignty to the
supranational institutions of the EU, the
Eurozone crisis is not going to disappear
any time soon. And chances of that hap-
pening in the immediate future are
almost negligible.
Interestingly, some of the peripheral
countries, particularly Greece, Ireland
and Portugal, which experienced the
debt crisis in 2010, were among the best-
performing countries in terms of growth
within the EU over the decade proceed-
ing the crisis. The introduction of a single
currency led to a sharp fall in real interest
rates, especially in these peripheral
countries as nominal interest rates con-
verged to low German levels. The credi-
bility of these countries increased as they
joined the single currency after fulfilling
indaily.wordpress.com

these developments might give the illu-
sion of some change and stability, but the
basic Eurozone problems remain intact.
The EU faces a fundamental challenge
today, which has no easy answers. Euro-
pean policymakers have realised that it is
the so-called Convergence Criteria,
which included low fiscal deficits (3 per
cent of the GDP), low government debt
(60 per cent of the GDP), low inflation,
low interest rates and stable exchange
rate. Further, they also agreed to follow

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DIPLOMACY

OMINOUS SIGNS: The severe economic

crisis has dropped the wind out of the sails
of the European economic system

the Growth and Stability Pact, which was

meant to be continuing to follow these
rules.
With the improvement in credibility,
many west European banks expanded
into these peripheral countries. As
households and firms borrowed heavily
to reap benefits of growth and enjoy per-
spective gains in wealth, demand for
credit expanded. The surge in demand
for borrowing met with relaxation of
credit supply. During this period, hous-
ing prices boomed in all of these coun-
tries. Compared to other sectors, con-
struction and financial services grew dis-
proportionately. As a result of the high
economic activity, there was also an
increase in government tax revenues.
Rapid growth in the peripheral countries
provided a good export market for coun-
tries like Germany. As rapid growth led to
increased demand for imports, there
were large deficits in current accounts,
which was managed with easy external
finance. However, the 2007-08 global
financial crisis led to the deterioration of
growth performance in the West. As
financial tensions led to disruptions in
credit, the fiscal and financial burden of
the past became unbearable. The revela-
tions that Greek fiscal deficit was much
higher than previously reported focused
attention on Greek debt and later also
raised doubts about Portuguese, Irish
and even Italian debts.
To tackle the issue, the European
political elite initiated many unprece-
dented measures. Along with the Inter-
national Monetary Fund (IMF), the Euro
area member states provided financial
support to affected countries in the form
of pooled bilateral loans. This included a
€110-billion package to Greece; €85-bil-
lion assistance to Ireland and €78-billion
financing for Portugal. A second bailout
package for Greece worth €109 billion
was also agreed with easier repayment
terms from the private lenders. While
doing so, the EU has effectively aban-
doned the “no bailout” clause of the Lis-
bon Treaty. It also first established €440-
billion European Financial Stability Fund
(EFSF). Its mandate is to raise funds in
capital markets to provide loans to euro
area member states, which are experi-
encing difficulty in obtaining financing
at reasonable rates. The EFSF may also

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DIPLOMACY

intervene in the debt primary market.

Now with Italian problems, as the com-
bined debt levels of peripheral countries
reach more than €3000 billion, there are
discussions of the expansion of the EFSF
to €I000 billion. However, realising these
funds is going to be a huge task.
To strengthen economic policy coordi-
nation in the euro area, member states
have also agreed for European Semester
and the Euro-Plus Pact. These are basic
measures to encourage coordination and
peer reviewing economic and fiscal plans
of individual member states. The Euro-
pean semester is a cycle of economic pol-
icy coordination to be launched from the
next year. It is a six-month period every
year during which the member states’
budgetary and structural policies will be
reviewed to detect any inconsistencies
and emerging imbalances. Euro-Plus
pact is a new grouping of 17 Eurozone
countries plus Bulgaria, Denmark,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania.
They have agreed for concrete commit-
ments to a list of political reforms, which
are intended to improve the fiscal
panorama.citizens-of-europe.eu

strength and competitiveness of each

country. Europe has further decided to
establish a permanent crisis resolution
mechanism, the European Stability
Mechanism (ESM) in order to safeguard
the euro and financial stability in Europe.
ESM will build on the existing institu-
tions by mid-2013. Many scholars and
policymakers have also argued for the
creation of common Eurobonds backed UP IN ARMS: People in countries across Eurozone have been hit hard by the economic
by all 17 Euro-area nations. downturn
Now the Commission has indicated
that it will present options for the intro-
duction of Eurobonds soon. But analysts  They still do not understand how dan- permanent mechanism to resolve euro
have already warned that whatever the gerous the situation is; or debt crises. This amendment will enter
variant, Eurobonds will only make sense  They do not understand what they into force only if approved by the all EU
if there is a serious coordination in fiscal need to do, or members according to their own consti-
affairs and even then only when public  They are unwilling to do what they tutional requirements and procedures.
debt levels are low. The average expected know must be done. Soon the EU might face a situation where
debt levels in 2012 in the Eurozone are As a result, the European economic situ- a country leaves or is forced to leave the
likely to be about 90 per cent of its GDP ation still remains murky. European economic and monetary union. This is
with level in Greece reaching 166 per attempts to run a common monetary going to be a highly challenging situation
cent and in Italy and Ireland closer to 120 policy without a single fiscal policy is not for the EU, both legally and practically.
per cent of their GDP. These are much working. In the last few weeks before ECB studies have shown that while nego-
beyond the 60 per cent levels agreed going to press, there were many reports tiated withdrawal would, perhaps, be
under the convergence criteria. In these indicating preparations for a possible possible, unilateral withdrawal will be
circumstances, Charles Wyplosz, Profes- Greek exit from the Eurozone. Euro as a highly controversial and forced expul-
sor of International Economics at the currency may not collapse but there is a sion would be almost impossible.
Graduate Institute, Geneva, and one of serious possibility of a Eurozone break- As the EU is India’s biggest economic
the leading economists on European up with one or more countries voluntari- partner, India has reasons to be worried.
integration, writes that in contrast to the ly abandoning the single currency or Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said
extreme clarity of the market’s message, forced to exit. Already, the European recently: “If the Eurozone crisis prolongs,
the raft of declarations from policymak- Council has agreed to amend the Lisbon growth in exports will be impacted.” But
ers suggests that: Treaty to provide a legal basis for a it is not simply a matter of changes in a

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www.geopolitics.in December 2011

few trade statistics. In the last 20 years,
rising India’s global vision of a democrat-
ic, multi-cultural and multi-polar world
has somehow coincided with Europe.
Similarly, when the new economic and
security architecture is evolving in Asia,
Europe’s engagement with it will be
incomplete without partnering with
India. Realising the importance, both
have established the institution of annu-
al summit meetings (supplemented by
business summits) that have resulted in
the India-EU Strategic Partnership as
well as Joint Action Plans. With more
than $90 billion bilateral trade, the EU is
India’s major trade partner. India’s trade
in services with the EU has also grown
from about €8 billion in 2004 to about
€18 billion in 2010. Foreign Direct Invest-
ment (FDI) from the countries of the EU
is higher than investments from the USA
and Japan put together.
Similarly, Europe is also becoming an
important destination for cross-border
investments and overseas acquisitions
www.geopolitics.in
for Indian companies. Encouraged by
positive trends, both are seriously nego-
tiating for a broad-based bilateral trade
and investment agreement. Traditionally,
economic relations have always been
core of India-EU ties. The continuing
Eurozone crisis has affected them
adversely. Already negotiations on bilat-
eral trade deal have taken much longer
than expected and missed many dead-
lines. Under an increasingly uncertain
European economic climate it is becom-
ing clearer that bilateral deal will not be
ready for signature for the next EU India
summit scheduled early next year.
At a broader level, this present crisis is
part of the global turbulence that began
in 2007. It started with a sub-prime crisis
in the US, became a global banking crisis,
turned into a global recession, and now
has become a sovereign debt crisis in
Europe. This crisis, however, has not just
challenged the European economic inte-
gration project, it also has serious impli-
cations for its other global ambitions.
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DIPLOMACY
In the last two decades, Europe had
two major projects — enlargement of
the EU from 15 to 27 and successful
introduction of the euro. After its failure
to establish a constitutional treaty in
2003 (because of negative referendums
in France and the Netherlands) the
European elite was successful in push-
ing the Lisbon Treaty in 2007. The idea
behind this treaty was to prepare the EU
institutions for an enlarged Union,
make its decisions more democratic and
above all, raising its profile in the world,
through a newly created European
External Action Service and through a
new position of High Representative of
the Union for Foreign Affairs and Securi-
ty Policy. Already, the example of an
integrated Europe had a powerful
appeal to economic policymakers in
many parts of the world. The way EU
was successfully managing itself, the
Europeans also wanted to propagate the
concept of “soft power”.
It means that in the area of foreign
policy, countries could rely more on
political and economic tools than on
military tools. This was in sharp contrast
to the American way of managing for-
eign affairs through military power.
However, with the onset of the present
crisis, many of these ambitious projects
have gone into the background. With
only one per cent of Union GDP as its
budget (out of which 70 per cent went
for agricultural and regional subsidies)
the EU institutions did not have many
resources to fund any of its global proj-
ects. In the next few years, Europe will be
extremely busy in solving its own eco-
nomic problems.
Even in the past, Indian policymakers
have been skeptical of Europe’s role as a
major strategic player in Asia. Apart from
economic issues, India’s partnership with
the EU is still at a “dialogue” level. The rea-
son is that because of the unique nature of
the European project, the EU is not able to
move strongly on sensitive issues with
India. The India-EU Free Trade Agreement
(FTA) could have given some new
momentum to bilateral ties. Now with the
absence of even an FTA, the danger, as
Shashi Tharoor wrote recently, is: “India
could write off Europe as charming but
irrelevant, a continent ideal for a summer
holiday, not for serious business.”
(The author is Associate Professor at
the Centre for European Studies,
Jawaharlal Nehru University)
December 2011

WHY AFGHANISTAN MATTERS
O
F LATE, one has been witnessing an inter-
esting development in India’s strategic
sphere. Some influential analysts are ques-
tioning the Indian policy in Afghanistan.
They think that India is wasting its
resources in a country which historically has never
been under any power’s control. If the mighty British
and Russians bled profusely in the past and the
“almighty” Americans are badly wounded now in
Afghanistan, these pundits are asking what the hell is
India planning to do there? They would like India to
abandon all its interests in Afghanistan and leave that
country to the whims and fancies of Pak-
istan, which, they think has a more legiti-
mate role there. Since Pakistani policy-
makers feel likewise — for them
Afghanistan accounts for Pakistan’s so-
called strategic depth — the Indian pun-
dits argue that if India abandons
Afghanistan, ties between New Delhi and
Islamabad will improve considerably. Prakash
The timing of this new thinking on
Afghanistan is quite interesting, coming as it does in
the wake of a series of unilateral concessions that India
has offered to Pakistan recently: helping Pakistan win
the hard-fought elections to the United Nations Securi-
ty Council as a non-permanent member and agreeing
at the World Trade Organisation to the European
Union’s special trade concessions for Pakistan, even
though the items on which Pakistan will be deriving
concessions in European markets compete against
similar items from India, mainly textiles.
The current phase of India’s active engagements with
Afghanistan began some time around 2001. That such
dissenting voices are coming after 10 years is quite
noteworthy. Of course, the dissent is that of a miniscule
minority. But this minority is quite influential and is
very friendly to the present official establishment in
Delhi. And that makes one wonder whether the dissent
is a “trial balloon” that India’s Ministry of External
Affairs floats from time to time to gauge the public
mood on sensitive issues.
Only two months back, India and Afghanistan had
signed the “Strategic Partnership Agreement”. India,
with a commitment of $1.2 billion through 2013, is
already the sixth-largest donor to Afghanistan; in fact, it
is Afghanistan’s biggest regional donor. It has been
involved in diverse development projects in infrastruc-
ture, education and agriculture. From building a parlia-
ment house, to a highway to Iran, India has been exert-
ing what is said to be its “soft power” to win hearts and
minds in Afghanistan. The latest “agreement” would
make India also assist “as mutually determined, in the
training, equipping and capacity- building pro-
grammes for the Afghan National Security Forces”. In
addition, the two countries will hold a regular strategic
(82)
www.geopolitics.in
GEOPOLITICS
g
Right Angle
dialogue “with the aim of intensifying mutual efforts
towards strengthening regional peace and security”.
Significantly, India also signed two MoUs for the devel-
opment of minerals and natural gas in Afghanistan,
which is said to hold mineral deposits worth $1 trillion.
There are four principal reasons why Afghanistan is
important to India. First, if Afghanistan comes under
total control of the fundamentalist forces again, then as
was seen in 1990s, virulently anti-India terrorist groups
such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen/
Harkat-ul-Ansar and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami will be
greatly emboldened to deepen their activities in Kashmir
and other parts of the country.
Secondly, it is in a “friendly” Afghanistan
that India can deny Pakistan its so-called
strategic depth. Pakistan wants to banish
India from Afghanistan and install a puppet
regime in Kabul. Pakistan’s ruling establish-
ment is quite vocal about this approach and
insists that the international community
Nanda must accede to its demand. Those in India
who agree with this theory do not realise
the dangers involved. Besides, if a relatively more pow-
erful neighbour demands to have a regime of its choice
in the lesser powerful neighbour, then logic demands
that regimes in all the South Asian capitals, including
Islamabad must be of New Delhi’s choice! After all,
developments in Pakistan affect India as well.
Thirdly, Afghanistan is a treasure trove of mineral
deposits, including vast quantities of industrial metals
such as lithium, gold, cobalt, copper and iron. As a ris-
ing economy and power India, like China, must be
there in the race for resource-development. The Chi-
nese are already present in a big way. India cannot lag
behind. Those in India who argue about what business
India has to extract resources in Afghanistan when it is
not managing its own mineral resources well at home
are missing a vital point that intelligent powers want to
save as much as possible the resources under their own
soil for future exigencies. That is why the United States,
one of the largest depositors of petroleum resources,
imports oil from countries spread out from South
America to Africa.
Finally, if India is to be seen as a global power, it must
be an effective regional power to begin with. All told,
Afghanistan is a SAARC country, not a country outside
the region. If it abandons Afghanistan now just because
the American troops are not going to be there, it will vir-
tually bring back the situation prevailing not so long
ago when it was seen with and compared to Pakistan.
Undeniably, India’s presence in Afghanistan has Pak-
istan-specific utility, but there is more to that. It is also
about India’s emergent ability to influence beyond its
extended strategic neighbourhood.
prakashnanda@newsline.in
December 2011
RNI No. DELENG/2010/35319
Posting Date. 8-9/12/2011
Reg No.DL(E)-01/5363/2011-2013

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