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Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET


Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in


Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 149 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 2.5
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 376

Key Financials - Trend


Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 12.2% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 3.9% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 3.9% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.5 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 9.0%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 11.0
Latest P/E (x) 21.1
Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming


evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel


u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an


upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it


knows?

Has the company been buying back its


shares?

Have retained earnings been invested


well?

Is the company’s return on equity above


average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to


inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.


Balance Sheet
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 25 25
Reserves 37 47 46 59 62 43 59 69 179 199
Borrowings 50 199 242 235 238 182 189 119 67 36
Other Liabilities 25 27 50 66 75 107 74 87 108 120
Total 130 292 356 378 394 351 340 293 379 381

Net Block 56 218 234 229 231 214 204 193 261 259
Capital Work in Progress 18 0 0 9 0 0 1 14 6 3
Investments 16 16 16 16 19 0 0 - - -
Other Assets 40 57 105 123 144 137 135 86 112 118
Total 130 292 356 378 394 351 340 293 379 381

Working Capital 16 30 55 58 69 29 62 -0 4 -2
Debtors 8 11 15 21 24 16 15 12 18 24
Inventory 8 12 34 30 40 30 37 19 34 31
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 24 34 33 28 32 22 24 16 21 24
Inventory Turnover 15 10 5 9 7 8 6 14 9 12
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4
Debt/Equity 0.9 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.2
Return on Equity 30% 18% 1% 20% 4% -32% 22% 23% 22% 10%
Return on Capital Employed 30% 10% 9% 17% 12% 4% 16% 29% 25% 16%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 128 119 164 278 267 254 237 273 310 360 416
% Growth YOY -7% 38% 70% -4% -5% -7% 15% 13% 16%
Expenses 88 93 128 212 214 233 185 191 228 301 368
Material Cost (% of Sales) 16% 19% 15% 9% 11% 17% 11% 11% 11% 11% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 29% 32% 39% 32% 37% 40% 34% 28% 31% 32% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 12% 13% 11% 9% 10% 6% 10% 10% 8% 8% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 14% 26% 26% 28% 28% 23% 11% 18% 27%
Operating Profit 39 26 36 65 53 22 52 82 82 59 48
Operating Profit Margin 31% 22% 22% 24% 20% 8% 22% 30% 27% 17% 12%
Other Income -4 4 4 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1
Other Income as % of Sales -3.0% 3.6% 2.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Depreciation 4 4 13 14 14 15 11 23 17 19 19
Interest 6 5 26 34 35 36 28 16 9 6 3
Interest Coverage(Times) 5 5 1 2 1 0 1 4 7 7 11
Profit before tax (PBT) 25 21 1 18 5 -27 14 44 57 36 28
% Growth YOY -18% -94% 1312% -75% -685% -152% 215% 30% -38%
PBT Margin 20% 18% 1% 7% 2% -11% 6% 16% 18% 10% 7%
Tax 9 9 1 2 2 -8 -3 24 12 12 10
Net profit 17 12 1 16 3 -19 17 20 45 23 18
% Growth YOY -30% -95% 2672% -80% -726% -186% 19% 127% -48%
Net Profit Margin 13% 10% 0% 6% 1% -8% 7% 7% 14% 7% 4%
EPS 9.1 6.4 0.3 8.6 1.7 -10.5 9.1 10.8 17.7 9.3 7.1
% Growth YOY -30% -95% 2672% -80% -726% -186% 19% 65% -48%
Price to earning 2.2 5.3 82.4 3.6 11.2 -4.9 11.2 13.4 14.1 21.3 21.1
Price 20 34 26 31 19 51 102 144 251 197 149
Dividend Payout 16.6% 15.7% 257.9% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 21.6%
Market Cap 36 62 47 56 34 95 187 265 634 499
Retained Earnings 14 10 -1 14 3 -19 17 20 40 18
Buffett's $1 Test 4.0

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS


Sales Growth 12.2% 11.9% 6.2% 14.9%
PBT Growth 3.9% 60.7% 50.4% 36.7%
PBT Margin 8.6% 6.9% 7.9% 14.8%
Price to Earning 16.0 10.0 11.0 16.3

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
Cash Flow Statement
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 25 5 12 59 44 74 9 122 52 66 468
% Growth YoY -80% 149% 394% -27% 70% -88% 1289% -57% 25%
Cash from Investing Activity -22 -148 -30 -17 -9 19 -3 -35 -60 -19 -326
Cash from Financing Activity -3 144 17 -41 -34 -92 -8 -86 10 -42 -134
Net Cash Flow -1 0 -0 1 1 1 -2 1 2 4 7
CFO/Sales 19% 4% 7% 21% 16% 29% 4% 45% 17% 18%
CFO/Net Profit 147% 41% 2111% 376% 1410% -382% 53% 618% 117% 280%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -291 -207 -352 -506 -563 -863 -1,147 -1,516 -1,186 -759 -7,388
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,153
FCF Growth YoY -29% 70% 44% 11% 53% 33% 32% -22% -36%
FCF/Sales -228% -174% -215% -182% -211% -339% -484% -555% -383% -211%
FCF/Net Profit -1743% -1768% ### -3200% ### 4460% -6865% -7658% -2642% -3236%

** Manually enter this number;


Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
Key Ratios
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth -6.9% 37.7% 69.8% -3.8% -4.8% -6.7% 15.2% 13.4%
PBT Growth -18.0% -93.8% ### -74.6% ### ### 215.5% 29.9%
Net Profit Growth -29.9% -95.1% ### -80.4% ### ### 18.5% 126.8%
Dividend Growth -33.3% -20.1% 50.3% ### #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Operating Cash Flow Growth -80.2% 148.6% 393.7% -26.7% 69.9% -88.1% ### -57.1%
Free Cash Flow Growth -28.9% 70.3% 43.6% 11.4% 53.2% 32.9% 32.1% -21.8%

Operating Margin 30.7% 21.7% 21.8% 23.5% 19.8% 8.5% 21.9% 30.1% 26.5%
PBT Margin 19.9% 17.5% 0.8% 6.6% 1.7% -10.7% 5.9% 16.1% 18.5%
Net Margin 13.1% 9.8% 0.3% 5.7% 1.2% -7.6% 7.0% 7.2% 14.5%

Debtor Days 24.1 34.3 33.2 27.5 32.2 22.5 23.6 16.1 20.7
Inventory Turnover 15.3 9.6 4.8 9.4 6.7 8.4 6.3 14.4 9.1
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2
Debt/Equity 0.9 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.4 0.3
Debt/Assets 38.3% 68.2% 68.0% 62.2% 60.5% 52.0% 55.6% 40.7% 17.7%
Interest Coverage (Times) 5.0 4.9 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.2 1.5 3.8 7.1
Return on Equity 29.9% 17.9% 0.9% 20.4% 3.8% -31.6% 21.6% 22.7% 22.0%
Return on Capital Employed 29.9% 9.9% 8.9% 16.6% 12.3% 3.6% 15.7% 29.0% 24.5%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -291 -207 -352 -506 -563 -863 -1,147 -1,516 -1,186
Mar/18
16.3%
-37.6%
-47.8%
0.0%
24.9%
-36.0%

16.5%
9.9%
6.5%

23.9
11.5
1.4
0.2
9.4%
6.7
10.4%
16.1%
-759
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)


Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
40% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
40%
Check for a rising trend and
30% 30% Numbers > 20% long term a
20% has zero/marginal debt. Com
20%
10%
10% 0%
0% -10%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan
-20%
-10%Jan/09
Check for a Jan/11 Jan/13 consistency.
rising trend and/or Jan/15 Jan/17
-30%
Compare with a close competitor
-20% -40%

Operating Margin PBT Margin


Net Margin ROE

400
Revenue Revenue and Pro
3000%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
350 2500% Compare grow
300 2000%
250 1500%
200 1000%
150 500%
100 0%
50 -500% Jan/10 Jan/12
- -1000%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

80 Profit Over Time Operating and


500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
60 which are rising over tim
-
40 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
-500
20
-1,000
-
-20 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 -1,500
-40 -2,000

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo


Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 31% 22% 22% 24% 20% 8% 22% 30% 27%
PBT Margin 20% 18% 1% 7% 2% -11% 6% 16% 18%
Net Margin 13% 10% 0% 6% 1% -8% 7% 7% 14%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 30% 18% 1% 20% 4% -32% 22% 23% 22%
ROCE 30% 10% 9% 17% 12% 4% 16% 29% 25%

Revenue & Profit Growth


Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth -7% 38% 70% -4% -5% -7% 15% 13% 16%
PBT Growth -18% -94% 1312% -75% -685% -152% 215% 30% -38%
Net Profit Growth -30% -95% 2672% -80% -726% -186% 19% 127% -48%

Revenue & Profit


Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 128 119 164 278 267 254 237 273 310
PBT 25 21 1 18 5 -27 14 44 57
Net Profit 17 12 1 16 3 -19 17 20 45

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 25 5 12 59 44 74 9 122 52
Free Cash Flow -291 -207 -352 -506 -563 -863 -1,147 -1,516 -1,186
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 companies would be 31st
% March of that year
%
%

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)


Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%
%
%
%
%
% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow


0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow


Mar/18
17%
10%
7%

Mar/18
10%
16%

Mar/18
360
36
23

Mar/18
66
-759
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 16% 19% 15% 9% 11% 17% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Change in Inventory -1% 1% 10% -3% 3% -2% -2% -3% 1% 0%
Power and Fuel 29% 32% 39% 32% 37% 40% 34% 28% 31% 32%
Other Mfr. Exp 12% 13% 11% 9% 10% 6% 10% 10% 8% 8%
Employee Cost 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 14% 26% 26% 28% 28% 23% 11% 18% 27%
Other Expenses -1% -3% -7% -7% -7% -7% -8% 2% 2% 2%
Operating Profit 33% 19% 1% 29% 13% 12% 26% 35% 25% 16%
Other Income -3% 4% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Depreciation 3% 3% 8% 5% 5% 6% 4% 8% 6% 5%
Interest 5% 4% 16% 12% 13% 14% 12% 6% 3% 2%
Profit Before Tax 20% 18% 1% 7% 2% -11% 6% 16% 18% 10%
Tax 7% 8% 0% 1% 1% -3% -1% 9% 4% 3%
Net Profit 13% 10% 0% 6% 1% -8% 7% 7% 14% 7%
Dividend Amount 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet


Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 14% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7%
Reserves 29% 16% 13% 16% 16% 12% 17% 24% 47% 52%
Borrowings 38% 68% 68% 62% 61% 52% 56% 41% 18% 9%
Other Liabilities 19% 9% 14% 17% 19% 31% 22% 29% 28% 32%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 43% 75% 66% 61% 59% 61% 60% 66% 69% 68%
Capital Work in Progress 14% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% 2% 1%
Investments 13% 6% 5% 4% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 31% 20% 29% 33% 37% 39% 40% 29% 30% 31%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 6% 4% 4% 6% 6% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6%
Inventory 6% 4% 9% 8% 10% 9% 11% 6% 9% 8%
Cash & Bank 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3%
A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LT


Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,326) (1,184) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,525) (1,216) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,754) (1,248) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,929) (1,226) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (2,122) (1,204) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,334) (1,183) Sales 6% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,451) (1,109) PBT 50% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,574) (1,040) FCF 6% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,702) (975) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,838) (914) 10 FY27
10 -28,376 (9,136) 10
Intrinsic Value (14,606) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 376 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -103% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD


Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,384) (1,236) Year 4-6 15%
(1,661) (1,324) Year 7-10 10%
(1,993) (1,418) Discount Rate 12%
(2,292) (1,456)
(2,635) (1,495)
(3,031) (1,536)
(3,334) (1,508)
(3,667) (1,481)
(4,034) (1,455)
(4,437) (1,429)
(66,561) (21,431)
Intrinsic Value (29,940)
Current Mkt. Cap. 376
Premium/(Discount) to IV -101%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the


al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name PORTLAND CEMENT LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 17.1 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 25.0 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 999 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 376 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y


Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations


m Formula (High Range)
PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Mar/18

17.1
8.5
50.0

1,853
376

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,153) ###


376
Years 1-5 6-10 -6982%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,793)

Year FCF Growth Present Value


1 (1,326) 15% (1,184)
2 (1,525) 15% (1,216)
3 (1,754) 15% (1,248)
4 (2,017) 15% (1,282)
5 (2,320) 15% (1,316)
6 (2,598) 12% (1,316)
7 (2,910) 12% (1,316)
8 (3,259) 12% (1,316)
9 (3,650) 12% (1,316)
10 (4,088) 12% (1,316)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (4,170)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 376

Note: See explanation of DCF here


Valuation
ENT LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)


Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
Expected Returns Model
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 17 12 1 16 3 -19 17
Net Profit Margin 13% 10% 0% 6% 1% -8% 7%
Return on Equity 30% 18% 1% 20% 4% -32% 22%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)


Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 73
Current P/E (x) 16.0
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 1,456
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 469
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 376

Note: See explanation of this model here


el
D
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
20 45 23 4% 50%
7% 14% 7%
23% 22% 10%
Intrinsic Value Range
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho -14,606 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 999 1,853 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF -26,253 understand this business?
Expected Return 469
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 376 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-


are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the


vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 78 83 85 80 91 90 99 102 105 110
% Growth YOY 17% 8% 17% 28% 15% 22%
Expenses 54 61 67 63 75 79 84 88 95 101
Operating Profit 23 22 18 17 16 11 15 15 10 9
Other Income 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciation 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Interest 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0
Profit before tax 18 16 12 11 10 5 9 9 5 4
PBT Margin 23% 20% 14% 14% 11% 5% 10% 9% 5% 3%
% Growth YOY -42% -70% -22% -17% -50% -23%
Tax 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 3 2 1
Net profit 14 12 10 7 7 3 6 6 3 2
% Growth YOY -54% -73% -35% -17% -52% -28%
OPM 30% 27% 22% 21% 18% 12% 15% 14% 10% 8%
COMPANY NAME ANJANI PORTLAND CEMENT LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 2.53
Face Value 10
Current Price 148.7
Market Capitalization 376

PROFIT & LOSS


Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 127.56 118.79 163.59 277.76 267.14 254.22
Raw Material Cost 20.19 22.56 24.23 24.97 29.49 41.99
Change in Inventory -1.73 1.45 16.67 -8.09 8.76 -4.02
Power and Fuel 37.41 37.56 63.48 89.03 98.81 102.95
Other Mfr. Exp 14.77 14.85 18.31 24.56 27.28 16.47
Employee Cost 5.4 6.81 8.81 11.4 12.69 14
Selling and admin 10.54 16.51 41.73 72.63 74.55 70.98
Other Expenses -1.61 -3.84 -11.91 -18.23 -19.71 -17.78
Other Income -3.77 4.33 4.33 0.5 0.89 2.12
Depreciation 3.73 3.99 12.75 13.83 14.34 14.91
Interest 6.29 5.34 25.9 33.77 34.71 35.88
Profit before tax 25.34 20.79 1.29 18.21 4.63 -27.08
Tax 8.67 9.1 0.72 2.41 1.54 -7.73
Net profit 16.67 11.69 0.57 15.8 3.09 -19.35
Dividend Amount 2.76 1.84 1.47 2.21

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 77.83 83.14 84.91 79.86 91.04 90.01
Expenses 54.4 60.76 66.55 62.86 74.59 79.18
Other Income 0.67 0.42 0.21 0.53 0.26 0.27
Depreciation 4.17 4.22 4.52 4.63 4.68 4.74
Interest 2.35 2.29 1.85 1.63 1.89 1.54
Profit before tax 17.58 16.29 12.2 11.27 10.14 4.82
Tax 3.19 4.36 2.67 4 3.45 1.54
Net profit 14.39 11.93 9.54 7.27 6.69 3.28
Operating Profit 23.43 22.38 18.36 17 16.45 10.83

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 18.39 18.39 18.39 18.39 18.39 18.39
Reserves 37.41 46.96 45.82 59.06 62.15 42.8
Borrowings 49.96 198.91 241.99 234.91 238.44 182.27
Other Liabilities 24.57 27.38 49.57 65.54 75.03 107.31
Total 130.33 291.64 355.77 377.9 394.01 350.77
Net Block 55.67 217.62 234.26 228.87 230.85 213.74
Capital Work in Progress 17.72 0.25 0.41 9.23 0.28 0.26
Investments 16.47 16.47 16.47 16.47 18.85 0.04
Other Assets 40.47 57.3 104.63 123.33 144.03 136.73
Total 130.33 291.64 355.77 377.9 394.01 350.77
Receivables 8.43 11.16 14.87 20.95 23.58 15.64
Inventory 8.36 12.34 33.78 29.56 39.86 30.38
Cash & Bank 2.49 2.6 2.27 3.6 3.82 4.91
No. of Equity Shares 18394463 18394463 18394463 18394463 18394463 18394463
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 24.5 4.84 12.03 59.39 43.56 73.99
Cash from Investing Activity -22.35 -148.35 -29.53 -17.22 -9.36 18.81
Cash from Financing Activity -2.98 143.62 17.18 -41.17 -33.65 -91.71
Net Cash Flow -0.83 0.11 -0.32 1 0.55 1.09

PRICE: 19.808333 33.76 25.531111 30.6255 18.743125 51.491579

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


237.23 273.19 309.69 360.05
25 29.04 34.53 39.12
-5.26 -7.17 3.13 1.43
80.81 76.8 95.1 114.35
24.27 26.79 25.41 27.97
14.55 16.42 14.55 17.56
54.42 29.61 55.23 96.91
-19.13 5.07 5.83 6.14
0.52 0.71 1.52 1.25
10.59 23.12 17.06 18.75
28.02 15.84 9.44 6.25
13.97 44.04 57.19 35.68
-2.74 24.25 12.31 12.24
16.71 19.79 44.88 23.44
5.06 5.06

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18


99.15 102.3 104.89 110.05
83.98 87.72 94.86 101.43
0.19 0.2 0.34 0.3
4.7 4.76 4.82 4.83
1.2 0.71 0.48 0.37
9.46 9.31 5.07 3.72
3.26 3.29 1.83 1.34
6.2 6.03 3.24 2.37
15.17 14.58 10.03 8.62

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


18.39 18.39 25.29 25.29
59.07 68.94 178.94 199.44
189.4 119.48 67.19 35.76
73.5 86.5 108.01 120.04
340.36 293.31 379.43 380.53
204.45 192.91 261.09 258.91
0.66 13.92 6.25 3.25
0.03
135.22 86.48 112.09 118.37
340.36 293.31 379.43 380.53
15.32 12.07 17.54 23.58
37.41 19.01 33.96 31.29
3.09 4.11 6.32 10.66
18394463 18390000 25290000 25290000

10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


8.81 122.4 52.48 65.55
-2.87 -35 -60.43 -19.42
-7.7 -86.3 10.17 -41.81
-1.76 1.1 2.22 4.32

101.746 144.129474 250.734211 197.186842

1.84 1.84 2.53 2.53


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