Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
Details
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
1,217 Remember! Focus on decisions
1.0 evidence
12.0
14,579

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 30.8% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 35.5% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 32.4% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.3 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 17.3%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 53.0
Latest P/E (x) 72.2
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12
Reserves 80 105 135 172 229 303 606 695 834 1,005
Borrowings 39 41 48 94 92 142 203 197 229 189
Other Liabilities 66 104 136 204 217 245 348 402 410 491
Total 197 261 330 481 549 701 1,169 1,306 1,484 1,697

Net Block 83 92 109 164 215 289 557 645 741 842
Capital Work in Progress 6 6 13 13 12 8 27 15 25 73
Investments - - - - - - - - - -
Other Assets 107 163 209 304 322 403 585 646 718 782
Total 197 261 330 481 549 701 1,169 1,306 1,484 1,697

Working Capital 41 59 73 100 106 159 237 244 308 291

Debtors 41 68 78 103 106 145 233 227 339 307
Inventory 50 70 87 127 150 195 266 277 272 357
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 79 88 71 67 48 50 60 49 65 53
Inventory Turnover 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 6
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.3 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5
Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Return on Equity 15% 24% 22% 22% 25% 25% 13% 14% 17% 17%
Return on Capital Employed 16% 24% 24% 26% 30% 30% 16% 18% 20% 22%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 188 281 402 565 802 1,057 1,410 1,678 1,895 2,106 2,379
% Growth YOY 49% 43% 41% 42% 32% 33% 19% 13% 11%
Expenses 166 239 347 482 687 902 1,242 1,471 1,634 1,792 1,997
Material Cost (% of Sales) 78% 77% 74% 77% 75% 76% 73% 73% 69% 67% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9%
Operating Profit 22 42 55 83 115 155 168 207 260 314 382
Operating Profit Margin 12% 15% 14% 15% 14% 15% 12% 12% 14% 15% 16%
Other Income 6 5 1 4 2 2 3 -3 9 13 15
Other Income as % of Sales 3.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
Depreciation 6 9 11 14 18 22 36 42 50 57 71
Interest 5 5 4 23 19 31 25 30 18 22 35
Interest Coverage(Times) 4 8 10 3 5 4 5 5 12 12 9
Profit before tax (PBT) 16 33 41 50 80 105 110 132 201 248 291
% Growth YOY 108% 24% 21% 60% 31% 5% 20% 53% 24%
PBT Margin 9% 12% 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 11% 12% 12%
Tax 2 6 9 11 19 25 31 30 56 72 89
Net profit 14 28 33 39 61 79 78 102 145 176 202
% Growth YOY 98% 18% 20% 55% 30% -1% 30% 42% 22%
Net Profit Margin 7% 10% 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8%
EPS 1.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 5.4 7.1 6.6 8.5 12.1 14.7 16.9
% Growth YOY 98% 18% 20% 55% 30% -6% 29% 42% 22%
Price to earning 4.1 8.2 10.2 11.2 13.9 35.5 70.0 50.1 46.3 63.1 72.2
Price 5 20 30 39 76 251 462 427 559 925 1,217
Dividend Payout 8.0% 8.1% 7.7% 6.4% 4.6% 4.6% 5.9% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1%
Market Cap 57 228 336 444 849 2,818 5,473 5,112 6,699 11,084
Retained Earnings 13 25 30 37 58 76 74 97 137 168
Buffett's $1 Test 15.4

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 30.8% 26.7% 21.3% 14.3%
PBT Growth 35.5% 29.2% 25.5% 31.3%
PBT Margin 9.7% 9.5% 9.6% 10.1%
Price to Earning 31.3 41.5 53.0 53.2

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 17 25 48 85 65 67 117 226 114 282 1,046
% Growth YoY 47% 97% 76% -24% 4% 73% 93% -49% 147%
Cash from Investing Activity -39 -18 -38 -68 -67 -91 -343 -203 -158 -185 -1,210
Cash from Financing Activity -1 -5 -5 8 -22 13 237 16 12 -71 182
Net Cash Flow -24 2 6 25 -24 -11 11 38 -32 25 18
CFO/Sales 9% 9% 12% 15% 8% 6% 8% 13% 6% 13%
CFO/Net Profit 119% 88% 147% 216% 106% 85% 150% 221% 79% 160%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -298 -187 -316 -480 -542 -870 -1,039 -1,412 -1,124 -542 -6,810
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,026
FCF Growth YoY -37% 69% 52% 13% 60% 19% 36% -20% -52%
FCF/Sales -159% -67% -79% -85% -68% -82% -74% -84% -59% -26%
FCF/Net Profit -2131% -675% -962% -1215% -895% -1102% -1369% -1399% -777% -310%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 49.4% 43.1% 40.5% 42.1% 31.7% 33.5% 19.0% 12.9%
PBT Growth 108.0% 23.9% 20.7% 59.8% 31.0% 4.8% 20.1% 52.6%
Net Profit Growth 98.0% 18.5% 20.2% 54.5% 30.1% -1.4% 30.4% 41.8%
Dividend Growth 100.9% 12.4% 0.0% 11.1% 29.9% 21.6% 7.9% 50.1%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 46.8% 97.2% 76.1% -23.9% 4.1% 73.5% 93.0% -49.4%
Free Cash Flow Growth -37.3% 68.8% 52.0% 13.0% 60.4% 19.5% 35.9% -20.4%

Operating Margin 11.6% 14.9% 13.8% 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 11.9% 12.3% 13.7%
PBT Margin 8.5% 11.9% 10.3% 8.8% 9.9% 9.9% 7.8% 7.8% 10.6%
Net Margin 7.4% 9.9% 8.2% 7.0% 7.6% 7.5% 5.5% 6.1% 7.6%

Debtor Days 79.5 87.9 70.8 66.7 48.3 50.1 60.2 49.4 65.2
Inventory Turnover 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 6.1 7.0
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.3 3.0 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 2.5 2.6 2.6
Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
Debt/Assets 19.8% 15.8% 14.5% 19.5% 16.8% 20.3% 17.3% 15.1% 15.4%
Interest Coverage (Times) 4.0 7.8 10.3 3.2 5.2 4.4 5.3 5.3 11.9
Return on Equity 15.3% 23.8% 22.4% 21.6% 25.4% 25.2% 12.7% 14.4% 17.1%
Return on Capital Employed 16.4% 24.3% 23.6% 26.3% 29.8% 29.7% 16.5% 17.9% 20.4%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -298 -187 -316 -480 -542 -870 -1,039 -1,412 -1,124
Mar/18
11.2%
23.6%
21.5%
0.0%
146.8%
-51.7%

14.9%
11.8%
8.3%

53.2
5.9
2.5
0.2
11.1%
12.5
17.3%
22.4%
-542
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
16% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
35%
Check for a rising trend and
14% 30% Numbers > 20% long term a
12% 25% has zero/marginal debt. Com
10%
20%
8%
6% 15%
4% 10%
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
2% Compare with a close competitor 5%
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

2,500
Revenue Revenue and Pro
120%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
100% Compare grow
2,000
80%
1,500
60%
1,000 40%
20%
500
0%
- Jan/10 Jan/12
-20%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

300 Profit Over Time Operating and

500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
250 which are rising over tim
-
200 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
150 -500
100
-1,000
50
- -1,500
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 12% 15% 14% 15% 14% 15% 12% 12% 14%
PBT Margin 9% 12% 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 11%
Net Margin 7% 10% 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 15% 24% 22% 22% 25% 25% 13% 14% 17%
ROCE 16% 24% 24% 26% 30% 30% 16% 18% 20%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 49% 43% 41% 42% 32% 33% 19% 13% 11%
PBT Growth 108% 24% 21% 60% 31% 5% 20% 53% 24%
Net Profit Growth 98% 18% 20% 55% 30% -1% 30% 42% 22%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 188 281 402 565 802 1,057 1,410 1,678 1,895
PBT 16 33 41 50 80 105 110 132 201
Net Profit 14 28 33 39 61 79 78 102 145

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 17 25 48 85 65 67 117 226 114
Free Cash Flow -298 -187 -316 -480 -542 -870 -1,039 -1,412 -1,124
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

%
%
%
%
%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
15%
12%
8%

Mar/18
17%
22%

Mar/18
2,106
248
176

Mar/18
282
-542
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 78% 77% 74% 77% 75% 76% 73% 73% 69% 67%
Change in Inventory 8% 6% 0% 4% 3% 3% -1% 2% 0% 1%
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Employee Cost 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9%
Other Expenses 2% -3% -2% -3% -2% -1% -1% 1% 1% 1%
Operating Profit -4% 4% 14% 7% 9% 9% 14% 9% 13% 13%
Other Income 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Depreciation 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Interest 3% 2% 1% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 9% 12% 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 11% 12%
Tax 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Net Profit 7% 10% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 8% 8%
Dividend Amount 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 41% 40% 41% 36% 42% 43% 52% 53% 56% 59%
Borrowings 20% 16% 15% 20% 17% 20% 17% 15% 15% 11%
Other Liabilities 34% 40% 41% 42% 39% 35% 30% 31% 28% 29%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 42% 35% 33% 34% 39% 41% 48% 49% 50% 50%
Capital Work in Progress 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 4%
Investments 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 54% 62% 63% 63% 59% 58% 50% 49% 48% 46%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 21% 26% 24% 21% 19% 21% 20% 17% 23% 18%
Inventory 25% 27% 26% 26% 27% 28% 23% 21% 18% 21%
Cash & Bank 1% 2% 3% 7% 2% 0% 1% 4% 1% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,180) (1,054) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,357) (1,082) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,561) (1,111) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,717) (1,091) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (1,888) (1,071) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,077) (1,052) Sales 21% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,181) (987) PBT 25% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,290) (925) FCF 0% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,405) (867) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,525) (813) 10 FY27
10 -25,248 (8,129) 10
Intrinsic Value (12,353) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 14,579 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -218% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,231) (1,099) Year 4-6 15%
(1,478) (1,178) Year 7-10 10%
(1,773) (1,262) Discount Rate 12%
(2,039) (1,296)
(2,345) (1,331)
(2,697) (1,366)
(2,966) (1,342)
(3,263) (1,318)
(3,589) (1,294)
(3,948) (1,271)
(59,224) (19,069)
Intrinsic Value (25,997)
Current Mkt. Cap. 14,579
Premium/(Discount) to IV -156%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name RAL POLY TECHNIK LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 115.9 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 11.8 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 3,718 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 14,579 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
RAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Mar/18

115.9
8.5
23.6

6,450
14,579

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,026) ###

14,579
Years 1-5 6-10 -160%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,640)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,180) 15% (1,054)
2 (1,357) 15% (1,082)
3 (1,561) 15% (1,111)
4 (1,795) 15% (1,141)
5 (2,064) 15% (1,171)
6 (2,312) 12% (1,171)
7 (2,589) 12% (1,171)
8 (2,900) 12% (1,171)
9 (3,248) 12% (1,171)
10 (3,637) 12% (1,171)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,710)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 14,579

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
K LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 14 28 33 39 61 79 76
Net Profit Margin 7% 10% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5%
Return on Equity 15% 24% 22% 22% 25% 25% 13%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 544
Current P/E (x) 83.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 10,876
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 3,502
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 14,579

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
101 145 175 32% 24%
6% 8% 8%
14% 17% 17%
 Intrinsic Value Range
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho -12,353 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 3,718 6,450 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF -23,359 understand this business?
Expected Return 3,502
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 14,579 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 435 450 587 405 517 512 639 477 629 634
% Growth YOY 19% 14% 9% 18% 22% 24%
Expenses 380 387 499 357 442 439 522 400 536 540
Operating Profit 56 63 89 48 76 73 117 77 94 94
Other Income 3 1 3 3 2 6 2 4 5 4
Depreciation 13 13 12 14 14 14 15 16 19 20
Interest 4 7 0 5 7 0 9 12 14 1
Profit before tax 42 44 79 32 56 64 95 53 65 77
PBT Margin 10% 10% 14% 8% 11% 13% 15% 11% 10% 12%
% Growth YOY 34% 45% 20% 66% 16% 19%
Tax 12 12 24 7 17 18 30 16 20 24
Net profit 30 33 55 25 39 46 65 37 45 53
% Growth YOY 30% 42% 17% 50% 16% 14%
OPM 13% 14% 15% 12% 15% 14% 18% 16% 15% 15%
COMPANY NAME ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 11.98
Face Value 1
Current Price 1216.85
Market Capitalization 14578.66

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 188.03 280.84 401.81 564.72 802.49 1056.9
Raw Material Cost 145.92 215.62 295.4 434.34 602.92 805.25
Change in Inventory 14.26 15.52 0.34 22.8 22.47 32.63
Power and Fuel 4.65 7 9.99 14.56 19.49 20.45
Other Mfr. Exp 3.91 9.71 5.15 7.27 18.24 24.4
Employee Cost 6.57 8.34 10.69 15.16 20.66 24.45
Selling and admin 15.57 22.24 33.01 48.34 64.77 74.93
Other Expenses 3.77 -8.27 -7.39 -14.86 -16.38 -15.08
Other Income 5.65 5.22 1.29 3.81 1.87 2.44
Depreciation 6.18 8.61 10.76 13.79 18.12 21.91
Interest 5.31 4.92 4.44 22.76 19.18 31.12
Profit before tax 16.06 33.41 41.39 49.97 79.83 104.53
Tax 2.06 5.69 8.55 10.51 18.86 25.23
Net profit 14 27.72 32.84 39.49 60.61 78.91
Dividend Amount 1.12 2.25 2.53 2.53 2.81 3.65

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 435.14 449.85 587.05 404.58 517.23 512.29
Expenses 379.54 386.84 498.53 356.66 441.57 439.03
Other Income 2.77 1.36 3.2 2.82 1.87 5.73
Depreciation 12.89 13.3 12.19 13.63 14.17 14.14
Interest 3.58 6.79 0.22 4.9 7.13 0.48
Profit before tax 41.9 44.28 79.31 32.21 56.23 64.37
Tax 11.79 11.93 23.81 7.37 17.05 18.06
Net profit 30.11 32.67 55.32 24.83 39.08 46.27
Operating Profit 55.6 63.01 88.52 47.92 75.66 73.26

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24
Reserves 80.12 105.21 135.19 171.62 228.93 302.87
Borrowings 39.03 41.26 47.87 93.84 92.29 141.95
Other Liabilities 66.25 103.56 135.73 204.12 216.83 244.9
Total 196.64 261.27 330.03 480.82 549.29 700.96
Net Block 83.2 92.26 108.54 164.04 214.96 289.3
Capital Work in Progress 6.32 6.46 12.73 12.96 11.99 8.2
Investments
Other Assets 107.12 162.55 208.76 303.82 322.34 403.46
Total 196.64 261.27 330.03 480.82 549.29 700.96
Receivables 40.93 67.6 77.93 103.16 106.29 145.08
Inventory 49.8 70.25 86.93 127.06 150.47 194.97
Cash & Bank 2.26 4.29 10.23 35.51 11.52 0.96
No. of Equity Shares 11238056 11238056 22476112 22476112 22476112 56190280
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 5 5 5 2

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 16.69 24.5 48.32 85.11 64.8 67.43
Cash from Investing Activity -39.38 -17.5 -37.67 -67.98 -66.51 -91.13
Cash from Financing Activity -0.93 -4.97 -4.71 8.15 -22.28 13.14
Net Cash Flow -23.62 2.03 5.94 25.28 -23.99 -10.56

PRICE: 5.084444 20.256667 29.882632 39.496 75.541 250.74053

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24 11.24
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

1410.48 1677.8 1894.67 2106.01
1036.19 1230.95 1306.19 1402.08
-13.28 29.71 2.7 18.71
28.88 36.01 43.54 53.25
24.9 37.56 41.47 45.22
48.05 75 88.66 106.49
104 110.41 145.61 190.83
-13.1 10.82 11.5 12.72
3.1 -3.22 8.92 12.68
36.42 41.79 50.2 57.13
25.45 30.24 18.4 21.58
109.52 131.5 200.73 248.11
31.34 29.56 56.16 72.45
75.89 100.95 144.68 175.09
4.44 4.79 7.19 7.19

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

638.82 477.01 629.24 633.7
521.53 399.83 535.56 540.03
2.26 3.88 4.54 3.92
15.19 16.06 19.24 20.19
9.07 11.66 13.56 0.81
95.29 53.34 65.42 76.59
29.97 15.68 19.59 23.51
64.91 37.36 45.28 52.71
117.29 77.18 93.68 93.67

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 11.84 11.98 11.98 11.98
605.73 695.17 833.66 1005.05
202.64 196.56 228.97 189.08
348.35 402.25 409.59 491.32
1168.56 1305.96 1484.2 1697.43
556.84 645.08 741.2 842.47
26.83 14.94 24.98 73.13

584.89 645.94 718.02 781.83

1168.56 1305.96 1484.2 1697.43
232.72 227.12 338.5 306.73
265.55 277.32 272.1 357.24
11.52 49.92 18.19 43.65
118365079 119750283 119766565 119766565

1 1 1 1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

116.98 225.75 114.19 281.85
-343.49 -202.92 -157.98 -185.27
237.07 15.65 12.05 -71.11
10.56 38.48 -31.73 25.46

462.3575 426.9 559.323684 925.490476

11.84 11.98 11.98 11.98

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