Balakot Airstrike – Forensic

Satellite Imagery Analysis

As a retaliation against Pulwama attack, Indian fighter jets carried out strikes
against targets inside undisputed Pakistani territory, but open-source evidence
suggested that the strike was unsuccessful.

At around 3:30 a.m. local time on February 26, a flight of 12 Mirage 2000 multi-
role fighters reportedly attacked facilities of the terrorist group Jaish-e-
Mohammad (JEM) near Balakot town in Mansehra District, Pakistan. Using open-
source evidence, we were able to geolocate the site of the attack and provide a
preliminary damage assessment.

While most sources at the time identified the strike as taking place in the
Pakistani town of Balakot, others located the strike at “Jaba Top,” a likely
reference to a mountain top near the village of Jaba, about 10 kilometers south
of Balakot.

Identification

On the morning of the February 26, after daybreak, a spokesperson for the
Pakistan Armed Forces, Major General Asif Ghafoor, tweeted images from what
he alleged to be the impact area of the Indian bombs.
Payload of hastily escaping Indian aircrafts fell in open.

Ghafoor claimed that the payload was dropped in a hurry and impacted in an
open area. The immediate imagery seemed to corroborate the statement, as
the photographs were taken in a wooded area and did not show any damaged
structures.

Two photos included fragments from the ordinance supposedly dropped by the
Indian fighter jets. One image contained what looked like a set of tail fins and
another what appeared to be a component for the targeting system.

The most identifiable photo was of the fins, which closely resembled those on
the Israeli-produced SPICE-2000 precision-guided munitions (PGM). SPICE uses
INS/GPS coordinates for autonomous navigation and electro-optical seekers for
target identification and terminal navigation. According to Rafael, the
manufacturer of the SPICE series of PGMs, the electro-optical sensor matches
the scene with pre-loaded imagery for accurate target acquisition and homing.
Bomb components compared against a mockup SPICE-2000 among other Rafael
products mounted on an F-16 model during the 2017 Paris Air Show.
(Source: AIN Online/archive)
Initial reports stated that Mirage 2000s dropped 1,000-kilogram (approximately
2,000 pound) bombs on their targets, which is the same size of the SPICE-
2000. This was corroborated by later reports, which stipulated that the SPICE-
2000 was used in the strike. These munitions are compatible with the fighter
jets, lending credibility to this assessment.
Location of the Strike

In addition to the imagery posted by the Pakistan Armed Forces spokesperson,

video footage emerged of the area near the strike, showing a second point of
impact. The video showed locals talking about the strike and claimed that only
one man received injuries as a result of being startled by the bomb blasts.

Shama Junejo
✔@ShamaJunejo

Replying to @ShamaJunejo
The only villager, injured due to shattered glasses of broken window is Durand Shah.
Villagers saw the Indian empty shells on ground which failed to explode. There was no
bomb. #BalaKot #IndianFailedStrike

The video posted on social media showed a valley similar to the one appearing
in the video shared by the Pakistan Armed Forces spokesperson. A single cluster
of buildings was visible on top of the mountain ridge. Imagery posted by
Uppsala University Professor and UNESCO chair Ashok Swain on Twitter showed
a closeup of this building, allowing for a clearer view of the area.
Overlap of closeup view and a still from the video footage, confirming that both
images are from the same location. (Sources: @shamajunejo/archive;
@ashoswai/archive)
Using this more detailed imagery, we were able to confirm conclusively that this
strike did in fact take place near Jaba Top. A comparison between tree clusters
and the buildings visible in the imagery provided a positive match.
Comparison of satellite imagery and footage from the ground. (Sources: Google
Maps, @ashoswai/archive)
Using this information, we were also able to verify the initial imagery from the
Pakistan Armed Forces spokesperson as being from the same location. In the
graphic below, the video footage would have been taken from structure number
two as marked in the satellite imagery and ground-level imagery.
Comparison between ground-level and satellite imagery. (Sources: Google
Maps, @OfficialDGISPR/archive)
Retired Indian Colonel Vinayak Bhat seemed to agree with this assessment in an
article written in the immediate aftermath of the attack, showing satellite
imagery of the same location.

Additional footage of the targeted facility was released on Twitter. In one tweet,
Asian News International (ANI) posted an image of what appeared to be a gate
and guard post to the entrance of the facility. As Bhat also pointed out, this
structure bore a high resemblance to a point along the road leading to the
facility on satellite imagery.

Comparison between ground-level and satellite imagery. (Sources: Google

Maps, @ANI/archive)
The blue roof combined with the half roof covering the road and the sideroad on
the right all contributed to a high-confidence conclusion that these structures
were the same.

Damage Assessment
Another video from the main point of impact allowed US to better survey the
extent of the damage. The video showed a large patch of wooded area affected
by the bombing, but no sign of damaged structures or personal injury.
This is where IAF dropped their bombs.

A dozen of killed.#Balakot
Viewing satellite imagery from Planet, a small change in the affected area was
visible, indicating the point of impact. Imagery from February 26 was not
available, but a comparison from February 25 to 27 was possible, allowing for a
reliable before and after comparison of the target location.

Satellite imagery of the target area before and after the attack. (Source:
@DFRLab via Planet Labs)
The change visible in the imagery indicated only impacts in the wooded area,
with no damage being visible to the surrounding structures.
Conclusion

Using open-source evidence and satellite imagery, we were able to confirm the
location of the Indian airstrike to be near Balakot, rather than inside it, and
firmly within Pakistani territory. The target was supposedly a JEM-led madrassa,
but we were unable to confirm that any bombs reached buildings associated
with it.

The SPICE-2000 is a precision-guided bomb that should not miss its target by
the approximately 100 meters that the impact craters were from the nearest
structures. The autonomous nature of the SPICE-2000 adds mystery to why the
bombs seemed to miss. Satellite imagery did not suggest that any damage was
inflicted to nearby buildings. Vegetation and low imagery resolution could
hypothetically obscure structural damage, but this remains highly improbably.
Something appears to have gone wrong in the targeting process — exactly what,
however, remains unclear in the open-source evidence.