March Housing Market Update

Jordan G. Levine
Deputy Chief Economist
April 16, 2019
Overview

Why We Should Be Concerned:

• Sales falling on monthly and annual basis
• Price growth has slowed significantly
• Buyer demand has softened
• Market less competitive for your sellers

Why We Shouldn’t Blow It Out of Proportion:

• Economy is still growing & most people have jobs
• Affordability might actually IMPROVE! Rates helping!
• Most people still WANT to be homeowners
• Ways for YOU to impact YOUR bottom line
• No impending doom on the horizon of leading data

2019: Tough Year, But Lots of Volume Out There

Let’s Nerd Out for a Minute
Economy growing slower, but still growing

2.6% 2.8% 2.0%

GDP 2018-Q4 Consumption Core CPI

2018-Q4 March 2019

3.8% 1.7%

Unemployment Job Growth

March 2019 March 2019
 2
4
6
8

0
10
12
14
Jan-76
Feb-77
Mar-78
Apr-79
May-80
Jun-81
Jul-82
Aug-83
Sep-84
Oct-85
Nov-86
Dec-87
Jan-89
Feb-90
Mar-91
Apr-92
May-93
Jun-94
Jul-95
Aug-96
California

Sep-97
Oct-98
Nov-99
U.S.

Dec-00
Unemployment Rate

Jan-02
Feb-03
Mar-04
Apr-05
May-06
Jun-07
Jul-08
Aug-09
Sep-10
Oct-11
Nov-12
Dec-13
Jan-15
Feb-16
Mar-17
Economy here is “healthy” – for now…

Apr-18
4.2

3.8
 Most areas AND industries doing well right now
11.3% California Job Growth by Industry
Merced
Kings Prof., Sci., & Tech. 3.5%
Logistics 3.0%
Yuba City
Admin. Support 2.4%
Madera Education/Health 2.4%
Stanislaus Tourism 1.9%
NR/Mining 1.8%
Shasta
Information 1.6%
Santa Barbara Total Nonfarm 1.3%
Inland Empire Government 0.8%
Manufacturing 0.7%
Sacramento
Real Estate 0.4%
San Diego Construction 0.3%
San Luis Obispo Other Services 0.3%
Management 0.2%
Sonoma
Retail -0.3%
South Bay Wholesale -0.5%
San Francisco 2.3% Finance/Insurance -1.2%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Good mix of jobs across wages/skills
Other Services California Job Growth by Industry
1% Construction Management
1% 0%
Information
3%

Manufacturing
4%

Logistics Education/Health
8% 26%

Government
8% Prof., Sci., & Tech.
17%

Admin.
Support
11%
Tourism
15%
 -5%
-3%
-2%

-4%
-1%
0%
1%
3%
4%

2%
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
California

Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
U.S.

Apr-15
CA vs. US Job Growth

Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Losing competitive edge? #affordability
Whither Housing?
 Sales Dipped Slightly from February
California, March 2019 Sales: 397,210 Units, -8.2% YTD, -6.3% YTY
700,000

600,000
Mar-18: Mar-19:
423,990 397,210
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales declined in all price segments
March 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment
0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

-5% -2.6% $0 - $299k 18.9%

-5.0%
-6.0% -5.9% $300 - $399k 16.2%
-10%
$400 - $499k 14.5%
-15% -13.4%
$500 - $749k 23.6%
-17.3%
-20% $750 - $999k 10.9%
-20.9%
-25% $1,000 - $1,999k 12.2%

$2,000k+ 3.7%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 California home sales down 11 months in a row
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 And across all major regions of the state
March 2019 Home Sales by Region Other March 2019 Home Sales Growth by Region
Counties
8% 0%
Central
Coast
4% -2%
S.F. Bay
Area -3.3%
-4%
18%

Central -6%
Valley
23%
-8% -7.4%
-8.2%
Southern -10%
California
47% -10.6% -10.8%
-12%
Other Central Central Southern S.F. Bay
Counties Coast Valley California Area
 Bay Area: double-digit declines again
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%
-10.8%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-18
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Declines spread across many price points
March 2019 Bay Area Home Sales Growth
0%

-5% -3.3%
-5.8%
-7.0%
-10%
-10.9% -11.0% -11.2%
-12.6%
-15%

-20%
-20.4%

-25%

-27.0%
-30%
Solano Marin Alameda San Mateo San Santa Clara Contra Sonoma Napa
Francisco Costa
 So. California: double-digit decline as well

YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%
-10.6%
-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 No area was spared – a broader trend
March 2019 Southern California Home Sales Growth
0%

-2%

-4%
-3.9%
-6%

-8%

-10% -9.3%

-12%
-12.2% -12.5%
-14% -13.0%

-16% -15.4%

-18%
San Diego Riverside San Bernardino Orange Los Angeles Ventura
 Even more affordable areas struggle
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10% -8.2%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Sep-18

Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Glenn County was the only standout
March 2019 Central Valley Home Sales Growth
80%
68.8%

60%

40%

20%
5.0%
0%
-4.4% -5.1% -5.4% -8.8%
-20% -12.5% -15.0% -16.1% -16.5% -19.6%
-27.3%
-40%
 Even in my neck of the woods
March 2019 Central Coast Home Sales Growth
6%
4% 3.5%

2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-7.5%
-10%
-12% -11.0%
-14%
-13.7%
-16%
Santa Barbara Santa Cruz San Luis Obispo Monterey
What’s The Scoop With Prices?
 Home prices: weakest growth in 7 Years
California, March 2019: $565,880, 5.9% MTM, +0.2% YTY
Mar-18: Mar-19:
P:May-07
$700,000 $564,820 $565,880
$594,530

$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo prices have already dipped negative
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Price Bounced Back after
Year-over Year Dip in February
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Mar-18: Mar-19:
$300,000 $460,500 $465,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05

Jan-10

Jan-15
Jun-10
Jun-05

Dec-07

Dec-12

Jun-15

Dec-17
Nov-05

Sep-06

Jul-07

May-08

Nov-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

May-13

Nov-15

Sep-16

Jul-17

May-18
Apr-06

Feb-07

Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09

Apr-11

Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14

Apr-16

Oct-18
Mar-19
Feb-12

Feb-17
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Weakness spilling down the price scale
California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (March 2019)
5% 4.3%
4%
3%
2% 1.4%
1%
0.0%
0%
-1%
-2% -1.4%
-1.9%
-3%
-4%
-3.8% -4.0% -3.8%
-4.1%
-5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Per Square Foot Had Smallest Growth
since Aug 2015
March 2019: $277, Up 1.8% MTM, Up 0.4% YTY
$400
Mar-19:
$350 Mar-18: $277
$276
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Prices softening most in Bay Area
March 2019 Bay Area Home Price Growth
6%

4% 3.6%

2%

0%
-0.3%
-2% -1.5% -1.7%
-2.5%
-4%
-4.6%
-6%
-6.6%
-8% -7.5%
-10%
-10.6%
-12%
Napa San Mateo Solano Contra San Alameda Marin Sonoma Santa Clara
Costa Francisco
 No area was spared – a broader trend
March 2019 Southern California Home Price Growth
12%
10.7%
10%

8%

6%

4% 3.5%

2%
0.2%
0%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-2%
-1.8%
-4%
San Bernardino Riverside Ventura San Diego Los Angeles Orange
 Price growth is strongest in Cen. Valley
March 2019 Central Valley Home Sales Growth
10%

8% 7.5%
6.8%
5.7%
6%
4.0% 3.9%
4%
2.2%
2%
0.0% 0.0%
0%
-0.1%
-2% -1.1%
-2.5%
-4%
-4.1%
-6%
 Big swings in Santa Barbara too
March 2019 Central Coast Home Price Growth
5% 3.2%
0.9%
0%

-5%

-7.4%
-10%

-15%

-20%
-20.5%

-25%
San Luis Obispo Santa Cruz Monterey Santa Barbara
 No immediate cliff on the horizon
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 Months
40%

30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18
Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Apr-17
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-18
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 California Market Velocity and Price Growth

150% 50%

Existing SFR Median Price Growth

40%
100%
30%
20%
Market Velocity

50%
10%
0% 0%
-10%
-50%
-20%
-30%
-100%
-40%
-150% -50%
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-11

May-15
May-09
Sep-09

May-10
Sep-10

May-11

May-12
Sep-12

May-13
Sep-13

May-14
Sep-14

Sep-15

May-16
Sep-16

May-17
Sep-17

May-18
Sep-18
Price Growth Market Velocity Market Velocity (12-Month Trailing Avg.)

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply & Demand Issues At Play
 Demand softer than papers would have you believe

Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?

57% 56% 53%

51% 48% 50% 48%
46%

22% 21% 27% 25% 22% 25% 24% 22%

Do you think it’s a good time to buy a home in California? (n=300) SERIES: 2018/2019 Google Consumer Poll
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Do you think it’s a good time to sell a home in California? (n=300)
 Then there’s the supply side to consider

Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%
13.8%
10%

0%

-10%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Housing supply up in all price segments
Mar 2019
Active Listing
30%

23.5%
20.4%
20%
15.1%
13.4% 13.8%

10% 7.6%

1.4%
0%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active listings increased in all regions
Mar 2019

Sales Active Listings

40% 37.1%

30%
Year-to-Year % Chg

20%
13.7%
9.7%
10% 7.3%

0%

-10% -8.2% -7.4%

-10.8% -10.6%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 More sellers having to negotiate now
March 2019: 98.5%, +0.5% MTM, -1.5% YTY
Mar-18:
Mar-19:
100.0%
98.5%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Especially at the top end of market
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
101.0%

100.5%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0% 99.8%
99.6%
99.5% 99.5%
99.5% 99.3%

99.0% 98.9%

98.5%

98.0%

97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Mar-18 Mar-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Reduced-price listings still rising
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 32.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -3.9%
California Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
32.5%
45% 9%
40% 8%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 3.9% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
10/1/2010

10/1/2011

10/1/2012

10/1/2013

10/1/2014

10/1/2015

10/1/2016

10/1/2017

10/1/2018
7/1/2016

1/1/2017

7/1/2017
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010

1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012

1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013

1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014

1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015

1/1/2016
4/1/2016

4/1/2017

1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018

1/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Homes are taking longer to sell
California, March 2019: 25.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30
25.0
20

10 16.0
0

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Especially in entry level segments
California Median Time on Market by Quintile
30 28
25 25 24 24
25
20 19
20 17 17 17
16 16 16 15
15 14 13 13 14
12 12
10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Mar-18 Mar-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Why We Shouldn’t Panic
 Listings decelerating: no mass exodus

Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%
13.8%
10%

0%

-10%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings by Month
California Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2018 2019
 Inventory still tight by historic standards
March 2018: 2.9 Months; March 2019: 3.6 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Most markets still tight
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0
2.6
2.0

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Interest rates are helping!
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
6%

20%
5%
4.44%
4.27%
15%
4%

YTY% Chg.
10%
3%

5%
2%

0%
1%

0% -5%

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-17
Jul-16
Oct-16

Oct-17

Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
May-15

Sep-15

May-16

Sep-16

May-17

Sep-17

May-18

Sep-18

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Mortgage applications are responding
Weekly Growth in Mortgage Applications vs. Mortgage Rates
14 4.94 5.0
Weekly Growth in Mortgage Applications (%)

12 4.9
10 4.8

30-Year FRM Rates (%)

8 4.7
6
4.6
4
4.5
2
4.4
0
-2 4.3

-4 4.2
-6 4.1
-8 4.08 4.0

Conventional Mortgage Apps (3-Month MA) 30-yr FRM

 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19
Pending sales: 1st YoY Growth in 27 months

Mar-19
 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

-15%
-10%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%

0%
5%
Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19
Especially where rates pack biggest punch
 Perspective is Everything

• Rates still low: 4.1% 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

20
• Likely won’t rise as fast 18

• Homeownership still the dream 16 15.6

14
• Buyers overestimate 12
downpayments 10
• Would jump in if they could 8
• Don’t know about FHA loans 6
4
• Economy still going strong 2

• No impending price collapse 0

1977-04-02
1971-04-02
1974-04-02

1980-04-02
1983-04-02
1986-04-02
1989-04-02
1992-04-02
1995-04-02
1998-04-02
2001-04-02
2004-04-02
2007-04-02
2010-04-02
2013-04-02
2016-04-02
• Rising rates motivate buyers
The Forecast
 U.S. Economic Outlook

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019f

US GDP 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 3.0% 2.4%

Nonfarm Job Growth 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3%

Unemployment 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7%

CPI 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4%

Real Disposable Income, % Change -1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6%

30-Yr FRM 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2%

SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Housing Market Outlook

2019 2019 2019

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p
Likely Best Worst

SFH Resales (000s) 414.9 382.7 409.4 417.7 424.1 410.5 371.1 396.8 347.3

% Change -5.9% -7.8% 7.0% 2.0% 1.5% -3.2% -6.9% -3.3% -10.4%

Median Price ($000s) $407.2 $446.9 $476.3 $502.3 $538.0 $575.8 $574.5 $593.4 $534.4

% Change 27.5% 9.8% 6.6% 5.4% 7.2% 7.0% -0.2% 3.1% -6.5%

Housing Affordability
36% 30% 31% 31% 29% 28% 26% 25% 30%
Index

30-Yr FRM 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Conclusion
 Putting it all Together
The Good News
• Economy still growing for now
• Still demand, just less so
• More listings for REALTORS®
• RE moving relatively quick
• Rates won’t go up as fast
• Market not as competitive
• Buyers can start to negotiate
The Challenge
• Need to negotiate again
• Seller expectation adjustment
• Weak bottom = buyer issues
• Interest rates helping for now
• Slower prices a good thing?
• Market to soften in ’19
• Focus on Selling Ownership