Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Agriculture

Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc and bsr.org

Agriculture – managing risk and enhancing resilience Resilience requires both mitigation and adaptation
Climate change poses significant risks for the agricultural sector We are currently on a path to a global mean temperature rise in the range
1.5 to 4.5°C by the end of the century. The higher end of this range would

and for global food security. Resilience to the impacts of a warming push
— O agriculture
PTAS CONSED
interests
far beyond manageable thresholds. The agricultural sector’s own
are best served by implementing ambitious approaches to mitigation to ensure
QUI OPTATESSIT
world will be enhanced by keeping the inevitable rise in average that key temperature
HARUM
adaptive
QUAS? thresholds are not crossed, while also working to enhance
Global temperature
Verrumcapacity
accus rem to inevitable
qui temperature rises and associated climate events.
global temperature below certain key thresholds.
increases of 4°C or
alitat ratio te volorum more, combined
with rising food
eum endit dolorae si demand, would
sequis magnim quame pose large risks to
conse pra pernate food security globally
and regionally.
maxim est, qui sitiber
endissi igna.

Supply Side Options

 Improve feeding and dietary additives for livestock
 Improve agronomy, nutrient and fertiliser
management for cereals
 Establish agro-forestry systems 3⁰C
Agriculture in a Warming World Steps for Mitigation  Replace fossil fuels by biofuels
 Integrate bioenergy production and
food production
Recent extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, floods, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture
droughts, and wildfires, are combining with long-term comprised about 10–12% of man-made GHG emissions
trends including rising temperatures and changes in in 2010. This is the largest contribution from any
precipitation patterns, with broad and deep implications sector of non-carbon dioxide (CO2) GHGs such as methane,
for the agricultural sector. accounting for 56% of non-CO2 emissions in 2005. The
agricultural sector has significant potential to make cuts in Demand Side Options
GHG emissions.  Reduce overconsumption in
regions where it is prevalent
 Reduce loss and waste of food
in supply chains
 Change diets towards less Adaptive capacity is
GHG-intensive food projected to be
exceeded in regions
closest to the equator
if temperatures rise
Reduced security Reduced crop yields by 3°C or more.
and quality of for staples such as
freshwater resources wheat, maize and rice

Livestock Options
 Match stocking rates with pasture production
 Adjust herd and water point management
 Use more suitable livestock breeds or species
 Manage livestock diet quality
Steps for Adaptation  More effective use of silage, pasture
1.5⁰C
spelling and rotation
Adaptation is highly context-specific, and no single approach  Monitor and manage the spread
Higher prices and Damage to for reducing risk is appropriate across all regions, sectors, of pests, weeds and diseases
enhanced market volatility for agricultural production
agricultural commodities caused by pests and settings. Farmers can adapt to some changes, but there is
a limit to what can be managed. Agricultural companies can
draw from a range of options to maximise adaptive capacity
based on a solid understanding of risks. Policy Options
 Index-based weather insurance
 Risk sharing and transfer mechanisms
 Public-private finance partnerships Local warming of up
to 2°C is expected
 Payments for environmental services
to reduce average
 Improved resource pricing
yields for the major
 Trade reform cereals (e.g. wheat,
Destruction and/or Falls in labour productivity, rice, maize) in
disruption to agricultural particularly for manual labour temperate regions.
infrastructure in humid climates

Crop Options
 Improve tolerance of crops to high temperature
 Breed additional drought-tolerant crop varieties
 Use adaptive water management techniques
 Alter cultivation and sowing times
0⁰C
 Improve crop rotation systems

P8  Climate: Everyone's

Shifts in production areas Business
Threats to livestock, especially IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE  P9
of food and non-food crops from heat stress
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Buildings
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc bpie.eu gpbn.org wbcsd.org

Building for a low-carbon future

Effective policies can lead to buildings and wider settlements that
are climate resilient and use energy efficiently, so curbing the rise
in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is potential for energy In 2010, buildings accounted for In 2010, buildings accounted for 19% of CO2 emissions in the building sector
savings of 50–90% in existing and new buildings. 32% of global final energy use. all GHG emissions. could double or triple by 2050.

BUILDING-AS-USUAL BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE

Buildings’ energy use in developed countries is Widespread implementation of best practices and technologies
generally wasteful and inefficient. Developing could see energy use in buildings stabilise or even fall by 2050.
countries risk locking into the same pattern as Many mitigation options promise multiple co-benefits.
their economies and populations grow richer. Carbon Efficiency
Warming and 9 At present, electricity is
Energy Demand 9 the main form of energy
Energy-Efficient used for cooling and
Higher temperatures will appliances, while fossil fuels
drive changes in climate- Technology are used for heating.
related energy demand. In Changing fuels and energy
low-income countries, rising 1 High-performance building envelopes. 1 supply infrastructure to
wealth will be the main Typically, with high-performance insulation buildings will be needed to
and windows, and high indoor air quality.
Demand driver of increasing energy
2 Energy-efficient appliances, efficient
deliver large emissions cuts
demand, principally for air even if end-use demand falls.
Pressures conditioning and transport. lighting, and Heating, Ventilation and 10 More than 2 billion
Air-Conditioning (HVAC). people currently lack access
Under business-as-usual 3 Improved building automation and
projections, use of energy to modern energy carriers.
control systems that respond to changing The evolution of their energy
in buildings globally could conditions. ‘Daylighting’. Using smart
double or even triple by 2 provision will drive trends in
meters and grids to modulate supply in buildings-related emissions.
2050. Drivers include real time.
billions of people acquiring 4 Evaporative cooling and solar-powered
adequate housing and Average CO2
desiccant dehumidification.
access to electricity. reduction potential:
More wealth, more urban 3 20–45% of baseline
Average CO₂
dwellers and a higher
reduction potential:
global population will
20–45% of baseline
also raise demand.
10
Energy
in the Home System
Traditional large appli- Infrastructure 4
ances account for most Efficiency
household electricity
consumption, yet their 5 Know-how exists on
5 Service Demand
share is falling fast. retrofitting and how to build Reduction
Electronic entertainment very low-and zero-energy
and communications buildings, often at little 11 Energy use increases
equipment now account marginal investment cost or projected for buildings relate
Impacts and for more than 20% of manageable payback times. 6 mainly to higher demand for
residential electricity use 6 Passive building designs energy services, driven by
Risks in most countries. that minimise or eliminate people moving out of
the need for mechanical 11 poverty and changing
Many buildings are
heating, cooling and patterns of consumption.
vulnerable to impacts
ventilation. Potential means to deliver
of climate change.
7 Deep retrofits of existing demand reduction include
These include increased
buildings have brought carbon pricing, personal
precipitation, thawing
50–90% energy savings. carbon trading, property
permafrost, and extreme KEY ISSUES 7
8 Integrated Design taxation related to building
weather-related events
Processes prioritise energy CO2 emissions, progressive
such as wildfires, severe
ENERGY INSECURITY performance-and-use appliance standards and
storms and floods.
factors through building building codes with absolute
Without investment in EXTREME WEATHER design, construction and consumption limits.
improved resilience, this
commissioning.
vulnerability is destined DROUGHT
to increase. Average CO2
GLOBAL WARMING Average CO₂ reduction potential:
reduction potential: 20–40% of baseline
8
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR 30–70% of baseline
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Cities
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc

Cities on the front line of a changing climate

Urban centres account for more than half of the world’s population,
most of its economic activity and the majority of energy-related
emissions. The role of cities in reducing emissions and protecting Cities account for Urban infrastructure Over 64% of the world population New infrastructure and land-
accounts for over 70% to live in cities by 2050, significantly
their inhabitants is therefore central to effective climate policies.
37–49% of global use policies could reduce GHG
GHG emissions of global energy use increasing energy use for infrastructure emissions by 20–50% by 2050

IMPACTS Sea-Level Rise
Two-thirds of cities with populations above
Climate change is expected 5 million are located in the Low Elevation Coastal
to affect numerous aspects Zone. Rising sea levels and storm surge flooding
could have widespread effects on populations,
of urban life. property, and ecosystems, presenting threats to
commerce, business and livelihoods.
Food Insecurity
All aspects of food security are potentially
affected by climate change, including access
to food, food utilisation and price stability. Climate
change is likely to cause food production in some
regions (including the ocean due to warming and
acidification) to decline.
Extreme Weather Events
Changes in extreme rainfall could cause the
amount of sewage released to the environment from
combined sewage overflow spills and flooding to
increase by 40% in some cities. Inland flooding is
often made worse by uncontrolled city development.
Increased Temperatures
The mean temperature rise in some cities could
be over 4°C by 2100, with peak seasonal temperatures
even higher. More hot days will exacerbate urban
heat island effects, resulting in more heat-related
health problems and, possibly, air pollution.
Freshwater Availability
Risks to freshwater resources, such as drought,
can cause shortages of drinking water, electricity
outages, water-related diseases (through use of
contaminated water), higher food prices and increased
food insecurity from reduced agricultural supplies.

D I J

C E F G H K

E A B

Adaptation is possible if ADAPTATIONS ADAPTATIONS ADAPTATIONS ADAPTATIONS ADAPTATIONS

complex, but cheaper in the Responses include: (A) improving early
warning systems, (B) strengthening
long run than doing nothing. coastal infrastructure, a significant degree
How cities adapt to the of rezoning (including relocation of critical
effects of climate change services), (C) and evacuation and crisis
response management.
will vary enormously.
Local responses include support for urban and
peri-urban agriculture, (D) green roofs, local
markets and enhanced social (food) safety nets.
(E) Develop alternative food sources, including
inland aquaculture, to replace ocean-based
resources under threat.
Responses include strengthening
infrastructure, (F) localised migration,
wastewater, stormwater and runoff
infrastructure and management, and
better emergency measures including
(G) stockpiling fuel, water and food.
Development of urban planning heat manage-
ment strategies, (H) including green zones,
wind corridors, green roofs and water features.
(I) Building codes will need to be improved, and
the infrastructure used by vulnerable parts of the
population will need to be made more resilient.
Options include (J) encouraging water
recycling and grey water use, improving
runoff management and developing
new/alternative water sources, (K) storage
facilities and autonomously powered water
management and treatment infrastructure.

Mitigation efforts can have positive impacts for generations to come

Energy Supply
Reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
can be achieved by the use of low-carbon
technologies including renewables, nuclear, and
carbon capture and storage. Switching from coal
to gas can be a bridging solution.
P8 CLIMATE: EVERYONE'S BUSINESS
Transport
Emissions can be reduced by avoiding journeys,
shifting to low-carbon transport systems, enhancing
vehicle and engine efficiency, and reducing the
carbon intensity of fuels by substituting oil-based
products with natural gas, bio-methane or biofuels,
or with electricity or hydrogen produced from low
GHG sources.
Buildings
Retrofitting existing buildings can reduce heating
energy requirements by 50–75% in single-family
housing and 50–90% in multi-family housing at
costs of about US Dollar 100 to 400 per square metre.
In contrast, substantial new construction in fast-grow-
ing regions presents a great mitigation opportunity as
emissions can be virtually eliminated for new builds.
Energy Demand
Increasing the efficiency of buildings, appliances
and distribution networks will reduce energy
demand. Changes in the awareness and
behaviour of residents can also reduce demand.
Projections suggest demand may be reduced by
up to 20% in the short term and 50% by 2050.
Low Carbon Cities
Options for rapidly developing cities focus on
shaping their urban and infrastructure development
trajectories. For mature cities, options lie in urban
regeneration (compact, mixed-use development that
shortens journeys, promotes transit/walking/cycling,
and adaptive reuse of buildings) and rehabilitation
and/or conversion to energy-efficient building designs.
Policy Instruments
Approaches include co-locating high residential with
high employment densities, achieving high land-use
mixes, investing in public transit. The best plans for
advancing sustainable urbanisation and low carbon
development, especially in fast-growing parts of the
world requires political will and institutional capacity.
IMPLICATIONS FOR CITIES P9
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Defence
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc

Climate change may undermine peace and security Reducing

Climate change exacerbates existing pressures on security as well as the Carbon
'Bootprint'
bringing new challenges, and the potential for violent conflict could
increase. The operational responsibilities of the defence sector could In many nations, defence forces are
the largest single consumer of fossil fuel.
also expand in the event of large-scale climate-driven disasters.
Reducing fuel consumption would in turn
reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
More Efficient Vehicles
Light-duty vehicles could be
40–70% more fuel efficient by
2035 than now.
Alternative Fuels
New aircraft typically offer 20–30%
improvement in efficiency. Shifting
from kerosene to biofuels offers +30%
cuts in direct GHG emissions.
Operational Efficiencies
Aviation carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions can be reduced through
more efficient planning of operations,
including routes, altitudes and speeds.

Security-Related Climate Responding to Climate Resilience

Change Impacts Change Impacts Strategies
! ! !
Flexible Response
Rising and Extreme Temperatures
Even with adaptation measures,
Lower agricultural output, spread of
changes in climate can have unexpected, adverse
disease, food insecurity, less renewable
effects on military operations. Flexibility in
water resources, more heat-related
planning and response will be essential
Increase in Drought and Inland Flooding illness, change in large-scale fish
in meeting long-term defence
Food and freshwater insecurity, catch potential.
and security responsibilities.
pandemic/epidemic disease outbreaks,
loss of food production and arable
lands, population displacement,
livelihood insecurity. Military Bases
Possible relocation,
use as medical Reducing Risk
centres and Action with an emphasis on disaster
support areas for Support for risk reduction can increase
refugees. Mass Displacement climate resilience while
and Evacuation helping improve human
Safely moving populations livelihoods.
and supplies while providing
security, clearing debris,
water treatment and
Geopolitical Concerns waste management. Planning for Displacement
Uneven distribution of impacts among countries Millions of people could depend
depending on geographic setting and other on adaptation measures to reduce
factors affecting national and human security. Medical Support displacement caused by
Climate-related security threats greatest in Providing large-scale coastal flooding and
countries with weak or failing emergency medical land loss.
governments and/or with Refugee Support
treatment, mobile
existing conflict. Rapidly constructing
hospitals, sanitation
and maintaining facilities
measures, preventative
to provide critical services
medicine. Anticipating Climate Risk
for a displaced population
Anticipating climate risks can help
for extended periods
planners reduce impacts. Numerous
of time.
facilities may need to be relocated and/or
Humanitarian strengthened, notably to secure naval
Operations bases against flooding and
Declining Snow and Ice Cover Routine Rebuilding and adapting sea-level rise.
Access to offshore resources in Military Operations infrastructure, maintaining
newly ice-free areas, freshwater Peacekeeping in fragile sanitation facilities,
insecurity, changes areas, refugee control, providing shelter, protecting
in geography and new policing, conflict resolution, vulnerable populations
openings for traffic. engineering activity, border against emerging threats,
protection. mortuary services. Adjustments in Security Analysis
Nations will need to update strategic
security planning to take into
account risks and impacts
Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surges of climate change.
Increased vulnerability in the Low Elevation
Coastal Zones, damage to infrastructure,
changing territorial limits and integrity,
population displacement, disease
spread, loss of arable land, Scenarios for Lack of Resources
change in coastal Reduction of fresh, clean water resources
Extreme Weather resources. could require increased peacekeeping
Destruction of critical infrastructure, in areas prone to conflict over
population displacement, extreme scarcity, as well as
pandemic/epidemic disease logistical adaptation for
outbreaks, humanitarian troop supplies.
disaster.
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Employment
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc and etui.org

Redrawing the global employment map Climate change will influence both the economy and employment, making it almost impossible to accurately gauge the future.
Direct impacts on land, freshwater and ocean ecosystems will affect employment dependent on those ecosystems, such as agriculture,
Climate change is set to have profound impacts on employment world- forestry, fishing and some types of tourism. Climate change will also affect the infrastructure on which so much employment depends
– particularly through extreme weather events. Energy, water, transport and telecommunications are all likely to face disruption from
wide. But impacts are rarely obvious or direct, and jobs will be created flooding, storm surges, drought and temperature extremes. However, efforts to mitigate climate change, and to adapt to its effects, will
also create employment opportunities. Renewables and energy efficiency, biofuels and REDD markets, and more resilient infrastructure
as well as lost. People living in poverty will be most affected. all promise net employment benefits.

Where will climate Who will What employment sectors Why will an impact on one sector What new jobs will be needed to
change affect employment? be affected? will be affected? affect other sectors? tackle and adapt to climate change?

The major impacts of climate change on employment in rural

areas will be related to water supply, food security and agricultural
incomes, although new energy crops, payments under REDD SCENARIO ONE SCENARIO TWO SCENARIO THREE
(Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) and
improved forestry yields could benefit some areas.

Extreme weather events disrupt infrastructure

Adaptation Service Employment

Rural Areas POOR TIMBER MINING AGRI- ENERGY
Jobs that focus on goods and services that
help prepare for climate change impacts.
Rural areas account for about AND PULP Lack of water CULTURE Biofuels Lower crop yields Flooding disrupts component
70% of the developing world’s Changing and fears over Lower yields could create manufacturers in Asia
poor people. They already yields, REDD water pollution will affect employment
face a range of challenges could create could see incomes
and vulnerabilities that climate jobs mines close
change is likely to intensify.
Electricity supply less reliable

Food processing jobs at risk IT/vehicle assembly plants in

Europe/North America stop work

Energy Production Employment

Renewable and decentralised
energy roll-out to create jobs.

Much of the impact on urban employment will come from disruption

to infrastructure such as water and sanitation, energy supply,
transport and telecommunications. Increased investment in more
resilient infrastructure would create employment. Meanwhile,
changes in distribution of fish stocks will affect fishing communities.

Transport links damaged

Building Services Employment
Building resilient infrastructure crucial to
maintaining economic activity, and thus jobs.

Urban/Coastal Higher food prices hit purchasing power SOLD OUT

Areas POOR AND NEW MIGRANTS
Urban areas are set to absorb
the world’s entire population
TOURISM
At risk from
sea-level rise,
CON-
STRUCTION
Increased
MUNICIPAL
SERVICES
Increased
ENERGY
Power genera-
tion, energy
growth, placing pressure on storm surges infrastructure resources, conservation
job markets and potentially and more spending likely jobs to adapt and low carbon
concentrating climate risks, frequent to climate mobility could Economic activity reduced
particularly in the Low and intense change create jobs
Elevation Coastal Zone. extreme
weather Industry Service Employment
events Retailers run out of stock Shifts in agriculture to new regions. Biofuels
Discretionary consumption lower and REDD could create employment.
and employment falls
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Energy
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc worldenergy.org

Energy Sector Faces Major Challenges from Climate Change Global warming, changing
Without strong mitigation policies, the global average temperature regional weather patterns and
extreme weather events will
is likely to rise above the internationally agreed 2°C target. As a major affect demand and impact energy
production and transmission.
source of carbon emissions, the energy sector will be affected by Strong global policy action would

mitigation policies as well as by climate impacts in multiple ways.

also have major implications on Climate Changes in Regional Extreme Government Investment
investments. Change Weather Patterns Weather Events Policy

Impacts Power Stations Pipelines Power lines Renewables Nuclear

and Thermal power plants will be affected by the Energy transport infrastructure is at risk, with oil Extreme weather events, especially strong Changes in regional weather patterns threaten Lack of water and

Adaptations decreasing efficiency of thermal conversion

as a result of rising ambient temperatures.
Reduced water for cooling and increasing
water temperatures could lead to reduced
power operations or temporary shutdowns.
and gas pipelines in coastal areas affected by
rising sea levels and those in cold climes by thawing
permafrost. May require new land zoning codes
and risk-based design and construction standards
and structural upgrades to infrastructure.
wind, could damage power lines. Standards
can be amended to implement appropriate
adaptation measures, including re-routing
lines away from high-risk areas.
to impact the hydrologic cycle that underpins
hydropower. An increase in cloudiness in
extreme weather events
may threaten nuclear
some regions would affect solar technologies, plants by disrupting the
while an increase in the number and severity functioning of critical
of storms could damage equipment. equipment and processes.

Emission Carbon Capture & Storage Increasing Efficiency Switching Fuels Alternatives Reducing Demand

Reduction Adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil Energy efficiency can be improved by retrofitting Switching to lower-carbon fuels (eg from Increasing use of renewables such Reducing consumer demand is a key

Options fuel plants can reduce emissions. CO2 storage capacity

is large and all parts of the technology have been
demonstrated. CCS units burning bioenergy (BECCS)
can draw CO2 from the air. But barriers to CCS and
BECCS remain, including cost.
existing plants and adopting efficient new ones;
improving transmission and distribution and
through technology improvements in fossil fuel
extraction and conversion.
coal to gas) can reduce emissions. Moving
from world-average efficiency coal plant
to state-of-the-art gas can halve emissions
if fugitive methane release is controlled,
and can act as a 'bridging technology'.
as solar, wind and biofuels. Increasing
use of nuclear power. Hydropower is currently
the largest single RE contributor, but solar, wind
and bioenergy are expected to experience the
biggest incremental growth.
mitigation strategy. The level of demand
reduction determines the size of the
mitigation challenge facing the energy
sector. Potential limitations from 'rebound
effect' to be taken into consideration.

80 CO2 emissions (GtCO2)

Policy Framework
Additional investments, which could
be bolstered by fiscal measures and/or
subsidies are required in the energy
supply sector to keep the global
temperature increase below 2°C.
60 Business-as-usual
emissions trajectory
Largest GHG Contributor
40
Emissions trajectory
likely to keep global Regulatory Frameworks Investment in Technology Carbon Pricing
warming below 2°C
The energy sector is the largest source of Governments may facilitate an New technologies can be used For government and
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Meeting the 2°C 20 increased use of emission reduction for efficiency improvements, regulators, a key challenge
target implies swiftly halting the rise in emissions for options by creating an attractive power generation, extraction, will be to ensure a price of
the full energy system and bringing them to zero fiscal and regulatory framework. storage, transmission and carbon that incentivises extra
before the end of the century, with a likely need for 1950 2000 2050 2100 distribution. investment in low-carbon
'negative emissions' technology such as BECCS. technologies.
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Extractive and Primary Industries
Risks and Opportunities for Extractive and Primary Industries
Climate change is likely to affect many aspects of natural resource
exploration and extraction, and the production of industrial
commodities. Investments necessary for adaptation and mitigation
measures are in many cases cost-effective.
RISKS TO INDUSTRY
Physical impacts of climate change, such
as rising sea levels, higher temperatures
and more extreme weather, could
decrease energy supply security, reduce
availability and accessibility of natural
resources for production, damage
industrial and transport infrastructure
and reduce labour productivity.
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc and bsr.org
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from industry almost
doubled between 1970 and 2010. This reflects the
Primary industry
accounts for around
Most sector scenarios project that
global demand for industrial products
steady growth in world production trends for extractive
mineral industries and primary industries.
30% of total global
GHG emissions.
will increase by 45–60% by 2050
relative to 2010 production levels.
CASE STUDIES
EMISSION EFFICIENCY MINING
Switching from diesel-powered
Reduced emissions per machinery to low-carbon energy
unit of energy used sources is an important GHG
mitigation strategy for this sector.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY CEMENT
Carbon dioxide (CO₂)
Improving the ratio of savings of 40% have
energy consumption to been reported on
projects using ‘ultra
production of materials high-strength’ concrete.
PRODUCTION-RELATED
STRATEGIES
MITIGATION Improving industrial process
Absolute reductions in emissions from
industry will require efficiency improvements
efficiencies MATERIAL EFFICIENCY CHEMICALS
In the Netherlands, material efficiency
in all parts of the life cycle. Emissions Reducing the amount measures in plastics manufacture
can also be reduced by curbing demand.
The broad deployment of best available of raw material needed could halve emissions associated with
plastic packaging.
technologies could reduce emissions
intensity by about 25%, with innovation
to create a product
delivering a further potential reduction of 20%.
PRODUCT-SERVICE METALS
Modular product designs
EFFICIENCY within the aluminium sector
Using a product for longer allow longer product lives and
so drive an overall reduction
and more intensively in demand for new material.
DEMAND REDUCTION PULP AND PAPER
Reducing paper weight for newspaper
Reducing overall and office use could cut paper demand
DEMAND-RELATED demand for new product by 37%. Increased recycling, printing
STRATEGIES materials, by changing
on demand, removing print to re-use
paper, and substitution by e-readers
Reducing the overall use of
product material
consumption patterns could also reduce demand.
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc

Climate Change Multiplies Existing Threats to the Ocean The Ocean’s Chemistry is Changing at an Unprecedented Rate
Ocean acidification – the result of enhanced carbon dioxide uptake from the air – puts commercially
Fisheries provide three billion people with around 20% of their important fish and shellfish at risk. The ocean’s pH has already fallen by 0.1 since pre-industrial

average intake of animal protein, and 400 million depend critically times, roughly corresponding to a 30% increase in acidity. If CO2 emissions continue to rise at
the current rate, a further pH drop of 0.3 by 2100 is projected.

on fish for food. Projected climate change impacts on fisheries and Change in ocean surface pH by 2100

aquaculture are negative on a global scale; severely so in many regions.

-0.6 (MORE ACIDIC) -0.05
under the ‘business-as-usual' scenario.

FIVE AREAS TO WATCH

High latitude spring bloom systems
Subtropical gyres
Equatorial upwelling systems
Coastal boundary systems
Eastern boundary current upwelling systems

Ocean acidificaton
weakens shellfish

Shifts in
fish populations
to higher or
lower latitudes

Oxygen Minimum Zones

Reefs are dying faster
in the ocean are likely
than they are growing
to spread

The Economics of Fish Redistribution
Fisheries yield is projected to increase by 30–70% in high latitudes, but to fall
by 40–60% in the tropics and Antarctica, based on 2°C warming. Large species
such as tuna in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are likely to shift eastwards.
Global loss of landings is projected at USD17 to 41 billion up to 2050.
Dead Zones are Becoming More Common
The extent of oxygen-depleted ‘dead zones’ in coastal waters is increasing.
These are caused by high levels of nutrient run-off from land, exacerbated
by higher water temperatures and ocean acidification. In the open ocean,
the extent of ‘oxygen minimum zones’ (OMZs), caused by ocean warming,
also appears to be increasing. These waters are oxygen-poor in the
mid-layers and so are unable to support large active fish.
Negative Effects on Shellfish
Shellfish are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification and other
changes in ocean chemistry. Seasonal upwelling of acidic waters onto
the continental shelf in the California Current region has been affecting
oyster hatcheries along the coast of Washington and Oregon, although the
exact role of climate change is unclear. However, if ocean pH continues to
fall, overall global production of shellfish fisheries is likely to decrease.
Coral Reefs at Risk
Coral reef ecosystems are declining rapidly, with the risk of collapse of
some coastal fisheries. If CO₂ emissions continue to rise at the current
rate, coral reef erosion is likely to outpace reef building during this
century. Incidences of coral bleaching as a result of rising temperatures
are also likely to increase, with a consequent loss of support and habitat
for fisheries and other marine creatures. Coastal protection along with
food resources and income from tourism are consequently all at risk.

OPTIONS Undertake vulnerability assessments. Strengthen coastal OPTIONS Reassess and reinforce marine protected areas. OPTIONS Reduce non-climate change-related stressors. Policies aimed at OPTIONS Create new habitats such as artificial reefs to
zone management. Reduce aquaculture dependence on fishmeal. Protect mangrove forests, sea grass beds and salt marshes. reducing fossil fuel use across economies will affect the seafood industry. act as fish nurseries in areas where coral destruction occurs.
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Investors and Financial Institutions
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc

Climate Change: Investors and Financial Institutions Responding to Climate Change

Impacts of climate change can have significant effects on investments Investors and financial institutions will continue to
be exposed to downside risks as a result of climate
by introducing previously unforeseen risks. Policies to restrain climate change. Investment consequences may include
dramatic reductions in the value of particular assets
change can also affect investments. However, opportunities are likely and, for banks, reductions in the creditworthiness
Impacts Integration Uncertainty Influence
to open up in fields such as renewable energy and energy efficiency.
and solvency of clients. However, they may also
and Response include new openings and opportunities.

Impacts Integration Uncertainty Influence

Physical risks and policy measures could Effective responses to climate change will The specific investment made and the Investors’ and financial institutions’ decisions
have major impacts on investors and financial require major capital investment and finance financing mobilised will depend on are a critical influence on society’s response to
institutions government policy climate change

CLOSED

Extreme Stranded Assets Food Security Scale of the New Sources Changing Patterns Policy Signals Macroeconomic Trade-offs Expectations Dependencies Investments
Weather Events Assets become Climate impacts Challenge of Capital? of Investment The amount of Impacts Decoupling Governments are Decisions made by The willingness of
Between the 1950s stranded for a on agriculture are To keep the global USD 340 billion The energy supply capital required and There are significant economic growth likely to look to the private sector private investors and
and 1990s, the number of different expected to lead to temperature increase was invested in sector is likely to allocated for challenges in from GHG emissions private sector to investors and financial institutions
annual economic reasons: they can higher prices and below 2°C, additional reducing global GHG see a significant shift emissions reduction estimating the global will have profound provide much of the financial institutions to provide this capital
losses from large be supplanted by increased volatility in investment required emissions in 2011/12, away from fossil and in addressing economic impacts implications for capital required to will have a major will depend on the
extreme events, greener alternatives agricultural markets. in the energy supply with some 62% of fuels towards nuclear the physical impacts from climate change capital allocation deliver significant influence on how risk exposure of
such as floods and or technological Higher and more sector alone is this amount provided and low-carbon of climate change – both in terms of the decisions and reductions in GHG society responds to potential investments,
droughts, increased innovations, or in volatile prices may estimated to be by the private sector. sources such as will depend on the costs associated with risk-adjusted returns. emissions and to climate change. including policy risk,
ten-fold. In the period sectors experiencing affect socio-political between USD 190 renewables. In 2012, specific policy the physical impacts respond to physical and on the incentives
1990 to 1996 alone, change due to new stability. and 900 billion per renewables made up measures adopted. and in terms of the impacts of climate that are provided.
there were 22 floods regulations or year through to 2050. more than half of cost of GHG change.
with losses exceeding resource constraints. worldwide emissions mitigation.
USD 1 billion each. investment in the
electricity sector.
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Tourism
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc

Tourism on the Move in a Changing Climate IMPACTS Changes already

affecting the tourism sector
Cities and Urban Beach and Ocean and
Rising temperatures, higher sea levels and degraded RISKS Likely impacts Centre Tourism Coastal Tourism Sea Life Tourism
on tourism in the future
habitats will have serious impacts on almost every ADAPTATION How the

sub-sector of the tourism industry. But options industry can respond

IMPACTS

exist to help the industry adapt to climate change.

Mountain and
Snow Tourism
ADAPTATION
Snow-making
machines can help
operators respond to
less reliable snowfall,
although they will
face technological
and economic limits
as temperatures rise.
MITIGATION What tourism Sea levels are
can do to reduce its emissions RISKS estimated to rise
An estimated 150 0.45–0.82m higher ADAPTATION
million people than present by the The decline in sea ice
currently live in cities end of the century if is expected to add to an
with perennial water emissions continue to already rapid increase
Forest and Biodiversity and shortage, a figure rise at the current rate. in Arctic cruises.
which could rise to
Lake Tourism Agricultural Tourism 1 billion by 2050.
RISKS
Degraded beaches
RISKS reduce the desirability
Rising temperatures are of destinations, and
seeing species shift towards beach erosion can
the poles and to higher reduce the prices that
RISKS IMPACTS
elevations where possible. operators can charge
Rising temper- Half to two-thirds of Asia’s
Extinctions are increasingly for accommodation.
atures will mean that cities with 1 million or more
fewer resorts will likely as climate change
inhabitants are exposed to
be able to rely upon progresses.
MITIGATION one or more climate-related
sufficient snowfall. Behavioural changes, such hazards, with floods and
as holidaying locally in favour cyclones the most important. IMPACTS
of long-haul destinations, would Distributions of fish and other
reduce the impacts of tourism. marine fauna are changing as
the oceans warm, impacting
recreational fishing and marine
animal watching.
IMPACTS
Severe droughts RISKS RISKS
and pest infestation In sub-Saharan Africa, MITIGATION 2°C of global warming by
have led to widescale up to 40% of species in New aircraft typically 2050-2100 and ocean
forest die-back national parks are likely offer 20–30% acidification would would see
in North America. to become endangered improvement in reef structures degrade with
by 2080, assuming they MITIGATION efficiency. Shifting from serious consequences for
are unable to migrate. The built environ- kerosene to biofuels tourism. Mass coral bleaching
ADAPTATION
ment accounts for offers 30% + cuts in and mortality becomes an
Winter sport
20% of the sector’s direct greenhouse gas annual risk under all climate
resorts can adapt
climate impact; emissions. scenarios, with mass mortality
by marketing
retrofitting or ener- events beginning to occur
themselves as year RISKS RISKS
gy-efficient new builds every 1–2 years by 2100.
round-destinations, In Southern Europe, The suitability of most
would cut emissions.
with longer 'green North America and existing wine regions
seasons' helping Australia, fire seasons for vine-growing is expect-
to offset shorter will lengthen, and there ed to decline, affecting
skiing seasons. will be an increase in wine tourism.
the number of high fire
danger days.

Mountain and Snow Tourism
Snow sports are at obvious risk from rising
temperatures, with lower-elevation resorts facing
progressively less reliable snowfalls and shorter
seasons. But other types of mountain tourism are
also vulnerable, as infrastructure is put at risk from
melting glaciers and thawing permafrost.
Forest and Lake Tourism
Outdoor activities will be affected by large-scale
forest dieback and more widespread wildfires,
triggered by sustained drought and higher
temperatures. Longer fire seasons will reduce
access to national parks. Rising temperatures will
change lake habitats, affecting fishing tourism.
Biodiversity and Agricultural Tourism
As temperatures rise, the geographical dispersal
of flora and fauna will change, as species shift
to conditions to which they are better adapted.
Given that many nature reserves are geographically
isolated, this may prove difficult or impossible for
many iconic species.
Cities and Urban Centre Tourism
City visits account for a large percentage of
the global tourism industry. Across the world,
city infrastructure is exposed to a range of
climate impacts, including extreme heat events,
water shortages and flooding. Coastal cities,
meanwhile, are at risk from sea-level rise.
Beach and Coastal Tourism
Rising sea levels and more extreme weather
events threaten beaches and coastal infrastructure
enjoyed by hundreds of millions of tourists
each year. While adaptation can protect at-risk
infrastructure, beaches are difficult to protect
without reducing their attractiveness.
Ocean and Sea Life Tourism
The combination of rising water temperatures
and increasing ocean acidification, caused by
the absorption of carbon dioxide, spell particular
peril for reef ecosystems and the dive tourism they
support. Warming sea temperatures will also change
the distributions of fish and marine mammals.
 Climate Change - Everyone's Business Implications for Transport
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more information cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc and bsr.org

Transport Demand on the Rise Opportunities & Solutions

Transport accounts for about a quarter of global energy-related carbon The transition required to dramatically
reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. This contribution is rising faster than for any other energy emissions needs system-wide strategies
that combine new vehicle/fuel
end-use sector. Without aggressive and sustained policy intervention, technologies, modal change, and
System Carbon Energy Efficient Demand System
stringent sustainable transport policies
direct transport carbon emissions could double by 2050. and profound behaviour change.
Infrastructure
Efficiency
Intensity
of Fuels
Vehicle
Performance
Reduction Optimisation

Better air traffic management can reduce Fuel efficiency gains of 40―50% Port infrastructure may need to be rebuilt to For international shipping, combined
CO2 emissions through more direct routings from 2030―2050 can be achieved avoid the worst impacts of sea-level rise. Efficiency technical and operational changes
and flying at optimum altitudes and speed. through improved design. of new-built vessels can be improved by 5–30%. can massively reduce energy use.

Rail Aviation Road Shipping

Increased rainfall, flooding and subsidence, More storms in some regions may increase the number of weather-related delays Extreme heat will soften paved roads. Unpaved roads and bridges More frequent droughts may force the use of smaller vessels for inland shipping.
sea-level rise and increased incidence of freeze- and cancellations. Higher temperatures at high-altitude and low-latitude airports may are especially vulnerable to intense rainfall. Frequent freeze-thaw Some waterways may become less accessible due to decreased water availability.
thaw cycles undermine the stability of railways. reduce the maximum take-off weight or require longer runways due to less dense air. cycles in cold regions will damage both the base and paved surface. A projected increase in storms in some regions could raise the cost of ocean shipping.

Electric hybrid drive trains, buses and Truck modernisation including increased freight
cars can reduce consumption by 35% load, along with engine, tyre and vehicle maintenance,
compared with conventional engines. can significantly improve fuel economy.

In China, electrification and other measures on The high-speed ‘Shinkansen’

train infrastructure from 1975 to 2007 helped commuter train in Japan reduced
reduce CO2 emission intensity by 87%. energy consumption by 40%.

Co-Benefits
Efficient, low-carbon transport systems
have significant co-benefits, such as
better access to mobility services for
the poor, time saving, energy security,
and reduced urban pollution leading
to better health. Some studies suggest Reduced Road Traffic Health Energy Security Cost Savings Low-Carbon Cities
Reduced road traffic and congestion often lead Walking and cycling and rapid transit/public transport Cutting carbon emissions is likely to be more Many energy efficiency measures have a positive Owing to their high concentration of population, economic
that the direct and indirect benefits of to fewer traffic crashes, less noise and less combined with improved land use can bring great challenging than for other sectors given the return on investment. Improving aerodynamics activity, and motorisation, mega-cities are primary
sustainable transport measures often road damage. health benefits. Lowering CO₂ emissions could increase continuing growth in global demand and scale and cutting the weight of vehicles and optimising contributors to local and global environmental problems.
exceed the cost of their implementation. emissions of health-damaging small particulates. of change needed. However, doing so will assist design may have a negative lifetime cost. Low-carbon transport is a long-term sustainability strategy.
with long-term energy security.