Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Richard Alley
Pennsylvania State University
Kim Cobb
Georgia Institute of Technology
Julia Cole
University of Arizona
Sarah Das
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Noah Diffenbaugh
Stanford University
Kerry Emanuel
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Howard Frumkin
University of Washington
Katharine Hayhoe
Texas Tech University
Camille Parmesan
University of Texas, Austin and University of Plymouth, UK
Marshall Shepherd
University of Georgia
Surveys show that many Americans think climate change 2. We are at risk of pushing our climate system toward
is still a topic of significant scientific disagreement.1 abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes
Thus, it is important and increasingly urgent for the with highly damaging impacts.
public to know there is now a high degree of agreement Earth’s climate is on a path to warm beyond the range of
among climate scientists that human-caused climate what has been experienced over the past millions of years.2
change is real. Moreover, although the public is becom- The range of uncertainty for the warming along the current
ing aware that climate change increases the likelihood emissions path is wide enough to encompass massively
of certain local disasters, many people do not yet under- disruptive consequences to societies and ecosystems:
stand that there is a small but real chance of abrupt, As global temperatures rise, there is a real risk, however
unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes with small, that one or more critical parts of the Earth’s climate
highly damaging impacts on people in the United States system will experience abrupt, unpredictable, and poten-
and around the world. tially irreversible changes. Disturbingly, scientists do not
It is not the purpose of this paper to explain why know how much warming is required to trigger such chang-
this disconnect between scientific knowledge and es to the climate system.
public perception has occurred. Nor are we seeking
to provide yet another extensive review of the scien- 3. The sooner we act, the lower the risk and cost. And there
tific evidence for climate change. Instead, we present is much we can do.
three key messages for every American about climate Waiting to take action will inevitably increase costs, escalate
change: risk, and foreclose options to address the risk. The CO2 we
produce accumulates in Earth’s atmosphere for decades,
1. Climate scientists agree: Climate change is happening centuries, and longer. It is not like pollution from smog or
here and now. wastes in our lakes and rivers, where levels respond quickly
Based on well-established evidence, about 97% of climate to the effects of targeted policies. The effects of CO2 emis-
scientists have concluded that human-caused climate sions cannot be reversed from one generation to the next
change is happening. This agreement is documented not until there is a large-scale, cost-effective way to scrub car-
just by a single study, but by a converging stream of evi- bon dioxide from the atmosphere. Moreover, as emissions
dence over the past two decades from surveys of scientists, continue and warming increases, the risk increases.
content analyses of peer-reviewed studies, and public By making informed choices now, we can reduce risks
statements issued by virtually every membership organi- for future generations and ourselves, and help communities
zation of experts in this field. Average global temperature adapt to climate change. People have responded success-
has increased by about 1.4˚ F over the past 100 years. Sea fully to other major environmental challenges such as acid
level is rising, and some types of extreme events—such as rain and the ozone hole with benefits greater than costs,
heat waves and heavy precipitation events– are happening and scientists working with economists believe there are
more frequently. Recent scientific findings indicate that ways to manage the risks of climate change while balancing
climate change is likely responsible for the increase in the current and future economic prosperity.
intensity of many of these events in recent years. As scientists, it is not our role to tell people what they
1 Leiserowitz et al. (2013). Climate change in the American mind: 17 Cleland, E.E., I. Chuine, A. Menzel, H. A. Mooney, M. D. Schwartz
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10 IPCC (2013). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: 26 Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy (2012). Perception of
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Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S.
12 National Snow and Ice Data Center (2012). Arctic sea ice extent Pacific Islands. [T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M.
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13 IPCC (2013). Summary for Policymakers. 28 Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling, and L. McDaniel
(2009). Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures com-
14 Ibid. pared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophysical
Research Letters, 36, L23701. doi:10.1029/2009GL040736.
15 Hönisch et al. (2012). The geological record of ocean acidification.
Science, 335 (6072), 1058–63. doi:10.1126/science.1208277 29 Karl, T. R., G. A. Meehl, and T. C. Peterson (2009). Global Climate
Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
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tematics, 37, 637–69. 30 Melillo et al. (2013).
33 Luber, G. and M. McGeehin (2008). Climate change and extreme 49 IPCC (2013). Summary for Policymakers.
heat. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 35 (5), 429–35.
50 Ibid.
34 Kalkstein, L. S., S. Greene, D. M. Mills, and J. Samenow (2011). An
evaluation of the progress in reducing heat-related human mortality in 51 Melillo et al. (2013).
major US cities. Natural Hazards, 56, 113–29.
52 IPCC (2012). IPCC Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth
35 Lane, K., K. Charles-Guzman, K. Wheeler, et al. (2013). Health Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. “Likely”
effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: A review and defined by the IPCC as a probability of 66%–100%.
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36 Landesman, L. Y. (2005). Public Health Management of Disasters. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cam-
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37 Kinney, P. L. (2008). Climate change, air quality, and human health. 54 IPCC (2012). Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to
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39 Ziska, L., K. Knowlton, C. Rogers, D. Dalan, N. Tierney, M. A. Elder, 57 Strauss, B. H. et al. (2012). Tidally adjusted estimates of topo-
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58 Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, L. V. Alexander, S. K. Allen, N.
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59 Strauss, B. (2013). Rapid accumulation of committed sea-level rise
43 Ibid. from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Scienc-
es. http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/Strauss PNAS-2013-v2.pdf
44 United States Department of Defense (2011). 2014 Quadren-
nial Defense Review. Washington, DC. http://www.defense.gov/ 60 National Research Council (2013).
pubs/2014_Quadrennial_Defense_Review.pdf
61 Ibid.
45 National Research Council (2011). National Security Implications of
Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces. Washington, DC: The National 62 Ibid.
Academies Press.
63 Ibid.
46 Goodman, S. and G. Sullivan (2013). Climate change as a “threat
multiplier.” Politico. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/cli- 64 Ibid.
mate-change-is-threat-multiplier-87338.html
67 Ibid.
72 Ibid.
74 Ibid.
76 Ibid.
77 Ibid.
78 Ibid.
79 Ibid.
80 Ibid.
Lawrence H. Linden
Robert Litterman
Henry M. Paulson