Negotiation & Peacemaking

THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS: Session 3 – Nov. 14, 2017

TIMING & PHASES Dr. Romain Malejacq
AGENDA

The Negotiation Process

Prenegotiation
Ripeness Theory
AGENDA

The Negotiation Process

Prenegotiation
Ripeness Theory
THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS

Process as a balance between

Search for joint gains
Competing claims/interests

Negotiations may take many forms

Communication from a distance vs. face to face
Bilateral vs. trilateral vs. multilateral
THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS
Goal-Oriented (Fisher & Ury)
Insights for practitioners (prescriptive)
 How to win
 How to do best

BATNA

Process-Oriented (Zartman & Berman)

Comprehensive model
Negotiation process as a sequence of stages
NEGOTIATION AS A SEQUENCE OF STAGES
Negotiation process as a sequence of concessions

Convergence achieved by reciprocation

Bargaining behavior
Confrontational
Accommodative
Tit-for-Tat?

Past-determined or future-oriented?
NEGOTIATION AS A SEQUENCE OF STAGES
Negotiation process as a structural paradox

Bargaining directly affected by power relations

Importance of power symmetry and asymmetry between the parties
How to define power?

Negotiation process as an exchange of information

Negotiation as a “persuasive debate”

Exchange is designed to influence the other side
Aim to transform unilateral actions into joint ones
NEGOTIATION AS A SEQUENCE OF STAGES

1. Preparation

2. Exchanging information

(Shell's Model, World Negotiation Forum)

3. Opening & concession making

4. Closing & commitment

AGENDA

The Negotiation Process

Prenegotiation
Ripeness Theory
WHAT IS PRENEGOTIATION?
Prenegotiation is the span of time and activity in which the parties move
from conflicting unilateral solutions for a mutual problem to a joint search
for cooperative multilateral or joint solutions (Zartman 1989, 240)

Parties
 Contemplate negotiations as a viable option
 Communicate this to the other side

Main objectives?
 Removing obstacles to negotiation (formula phase)
 Removing obstacles in negotiations (details phase)

Ends when both sides agree to negotiate

KEY ISSUES IN PRENEGOTIATION

Who? What?
 Power Issues  Agenda and issues?
 Spoiler Issues  What order?

Where? How?
 Neutral Location  Mediator?
 Shifting Locations  Plan B, C?
WHY IS PRENEGOTIATION NECESSARY?
Risks
 Less risky to explore negotiation as an option than to negotiate
 Exchange of information reduces uncertainties

Costs
 Exploration of potential costs of actual negotiations
 Development of perception that negotiation is an alternative

Requitement
 Assuring the other side that concessions will be reciprocated
WHY IS PRENEGOTIATION NECESSARY?
Support
 Preparing domestic and international audiences

Alternatives
 Exploring alternative ways to frame the issue
 Compiling the list of alternatives (BATNA)

Participants
 Exploring which actors should be included in the process
 Inclusiveness vs. exclusiveness
 Identifying potential spoilers

Bridges
 Trust building mechanism: (e.g. cease-fires)
PLANNING AND PREPARATION

Stage One: What do we propose to achieve?

Stage Two: How do we go about achieving it?
Stage Three: What if we fail?
STAGE 1: WHAT DO WE PROPOSE TO
ACHIEVE?
What is our basic objective?
What are the final implications?
What are the alternative courses of actions (limits of flexibility)?
Who is competing with us?
What do our competitors want?
Do we have enough factual data and information to support our
arguments?
STAGE 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT
ACHIEVING IT?
Who will lead the discussion?
Who will check understanding (verify facts)?
What questions should we ask?
What are the emotional issues?
What power do we have? What power does the other party have?
What negotiation styles, strategies, and tactics are we going to use?
What do we expect from the other party in terms of style, strategies
and tactics?
STAGE 3: WHAT IF WE FAIL?

Do we renegotiate?
What “costs” and “benefits” are important?
What new strategies would be available to us?
PLANNING AND PREPARATION

Knowledge is power
Knowledge of your own interests and resources
Knowledge of the other’s interest and resources

Well targeted concessions and demands

BREAK TIME
AGENDA

The Negotiation Process

Prenegotiation
Ripeness Theory
WHEN IS A CONFLICT MATURE (RIPE)?

Perception of three crucial aspects

Mutually Hurting Stalemate (push factor)

Way Out (pull factor)
Mutually Enticing Opportunity (pull factor)
MUTUALLY HURTING STALEMATE (MHS)
WAY OUT AND MUTUALLY ENTICING
OPPORTUNITY (MEO)
Perception that negotiation is a suitable alternative

Not necessarily linked to a specific solution

Crucial elements of “softening up”

Immediate costs
Past experience with diplomacy
WHEN IS A CONFLICT MATURE (RIPE)?

Based on cost-benefit analysis

Pain producing path leads to exploration of alternatives
Present situation is less advantageous than alternatives

All conditions are necessary but insufficient

Not self-implementing
 Need for a valid spokesperson

Absence of ripeness is not a reason for inaction

FOSTERING THE SENSE OF RIPENESS

Steps
1. Assessing the existence and perception of a stalemate
2. Assessing the existence and perception of a Way Out
3. Inducing recognition of a stalemate and a Way Out
4. Ripening the stalemate and Way Out
5. Ripening the attractiveness of negotiation
STEP 1: ASSESSING THE EXISTENCE AND
PERCEPTION OF A STALEMATE
Objective indicators

Determining if a stalemate exists

 Frozen or violent conflict
 Effectivity of attempts or intentions to escalate into victory (military)

Assessing the extent of hurt

 Mounting costs
 Are costs understood as sign of pain (ex. body bags coming home;
rising numbers of refugees)?
 Changes in leadership and alliances
STEP 1: ASSESSING THE EXISTENCE AND
PERCEPTION OF A STALEMATE
Subjective indicators

Evaluate the meaning behind official statements

Statements of impeding catastrophe, conflict fatigue, escalation
futility, waning public support
Readjustment of goals, alternative plans

Assess the unofficial statements in public media

Public reactions to pain
STEP 2: ASSESSING THE EXISTENCE AND
PERCEPTION OF A WAY OUT
Objective indicators

Evaluating official statements

 Greater openness to talking
 De-escalation of goals from holistic/abstract to
specific

Assisting preliminary signs of cooperation

 Meetings between low-key actors
 Cease-fires, exchange of prisoners…
STEP 2: ASSESSING THE EXISTENCE AND
PERCEPTION OF A WAY OUT
Subjective indicators

Willingness to cooperate
 Positive comments about the other side
 Positive sentiment about cohabitation
 Statements that de-demonize the other side
STEP 3: INDUCING RECOGNITION OF A
STALEMATE AND A WAY OUT

Directly encouraging a perception of a stalemate

“Selling” the prospects of a way out
Encouraging perceptions
Displaying creativity
STEPS 4 AND 5: RIPENING PERCEPTIONS
Ripening the stalemate and way out
Using diplomatic measures
Employ economic measures
Apply military measures

Ripening the attractiveness of negotiation

Reframing the issue
Determine prenegotiations
What are the limits of ripeness theory?
IS THE AFGHAN WAR MATURE (RIPE)?
KEY POINTS

Negotiation is a sequence of (back-and-forth) stages

Prenegotiation is key to reducing uncertainties
Knowledge is power
Ripeness is necessary but insufficient