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Carnell

Sonia Carnell

Professor Robert Woodward, III

Math 1030-4040

8 February 2019
The Iowa Caucuses

The Iowa caucuses are what start our whole election year out. The process
starts in Jan 24, where each state in the United States holds either a caucus or a
primary to figure out what will be their nominees to who should run for president.
At these caucuses and primaries they also elect delegates who then go on to the
national convention for the political party. They will then vote based on the election
results from their precinct of their state as to who should be put on the voter ballot
to vote in the general election on the first Tuesday of November.

The two most used systems in our presidential election year are caucuses
and primaries. Caucuses can happen in two ways. The democrats do a more hold
public gathers and divide the room based on who likes which candidate for
president. Then each division debates amongst themselves the merits and faults of
their candidate. During this whole process you are aloud to move to another
candidates group freely. At the end of the night each candidate votes are based on
the number of people in his/her gathering. If one party gets less than 15%, then they
are taken out of the race. The Republican’s only do a primary style voting with paper
ballots and anonymously. Theirs gets done faster, but you don’t to have the
opportunity to hear debates among candidates like at the Democratic caucuses.
Primaries can be open or closed. In open primaries, all registered voters are
not required to declare a party and can vote for anyone even if they are Republican
and you are a Democrat. In closed primaries, voters must be registered with their
declared party to vote for their candidate.

This is my experience with a local primary in Utah. I have only been to one
primary in my life and that was in Utah in the winter of 2015 for the presidential
election. Isn’t that sad. Many of my friends are much more active participants.
There were huge long lines that were several blocks long for the Democratic
Primary. Inside there were private paper ballots to vote for out choice. They also
were electing delegates to vote for us as a precinct at our democratic state primary.
I never have time in the evening, but I sure was tempted. The Republican Primary
was held in a church stake center, it was neat and organized. After all the long lines
at the Democratic Primary I didn’t have time to go inside and check it out.

Iowa’s caucus started ever since it joined the United States in 1846, the state
has always had a caucus system. In 1972, it was moved ahead of New Hampshire’s
primary as the first in the nation to hold its election gatherings to decide which
candidate will receive the nomination and set sent their Party’s Nation Convection.
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New Hampshire is nine days later and a primary system. There are only a handful of
states that hold caucus. They are: Washington, Alaska, Nevada, Idaho. Colorado,
Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Maine and Kentucky.
That is only 13 states in 50 that hold a caucus. All the rest hold primaries.

I will now use the above knowledge and understanding of the different
choosing styles that make up the nominating process of our candidates for
presidents of the United States when I attend a Republican caucus for Precinct W1-
P2 at the High Land Golf Course. We are asked to select four preference candidates
from polls. These are B is Jeb Bush, C is Ted Cruz, R is Marco Rubio and T is Donald
Trump. The results are shown in a Preference Table. We have found six different
methods to describe these results.

First, we were given a nice orderly four by five Preference schedule table
showing the number of votes each candidate got whether they were first, second,
third or fourth. We found that 100 (19+6+39+39) people voted.
Our second way of interpreting the results we used the Plurality Method. This
method shows the winner to be *Ted Cruz. He won because he simply had the most
first place votes of 39. I only looked in the first row to find this answer.

The third method we used, Instant Runoff Voting, shows the winner to be
*Ted Cruz with 61 votes. In this method I looked at the first row again and found out
which candidate had the least and then crossed them out from the table. This was
Marco Rubio with 6 votes. All candidates moved up in position if Marco Rubio was
removed above them. Now the candidate with the least amount of first place votes
was Jeb Bush with 25 votes. The same happens, when Jeb was eliminated now all
the other candidates move up in places. Now between the two remaining
candidates Donald Trump gets eliminated with only 39 votes.

The fourth method we used, Borda Count, shows Jeb Bush with 306 votes.
Marco Rubio with 306 votes. Ted Cruz with 272 votes. And Donald Trump with 217
votes. This shows that Jeb Bush wins using the Borda Count method. Using the
Borda Count method the order of places is reversed so now 1st =4th, 2nd = 3rd, 3rd
=2nd, and 4th = 1st. To find these totals above I did the calculation seen below.

B = 4x19+3x6+2x36+1x39 = 205
R = 4x6+3x94+2x0+1x0= 306
C = 4x36+3x0+2x64+1x61 = 205
T = 4x39+3x0+2x0+1x61 = 217
Therefore, R (Marco Rubio) wins with 306 votes.

The fifth method we used is called The Copeland’s Method. The results show
Jeb Bush gets 1 vote, Marco Rubio gets 3 votes, Ted Cruz with 2 votes and Donald
Trump with 0 votes. So using Copeland’s Method, Marco Rubio wins again.
To find these results, see the method below:
Each candidate does a head to head match up with another opponent.
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There are six pairs shown in the table below:



Col Colu Colum Colum Total Winner


umn mn n3 n4
1 2
B vs. R B R (6) R (36) R (39) R=6+36+39= 81 R
(19)
R (0) B (0) B (0) B (0) B=19
B vs. C B B (6) C (36) C (39) B=19+6=25 C
(19)
C (0) C (0) B (0) B (0) C=36+39=75
B vs. T B B (6) B (36) T (39) B=19+6+39=61 B
(19)
T (0) T (0) T (0) B (0) T=39
R vs. C R R (6) C (36) R (39) R=19+6+39=64 R
(19)
C (0) C (0) R (0) C (0) C=36
R vs. T R R (6) R (36) T (39) R = 19+6+36=61 R
(19)
T (0) T (0) R (0) R (0) T=39
C vs. T C C (6) C (36) T (39) C=19+6+39=61 C
(19)
T (0) T (0) T (0) C (0) T=39

R=3 C=2 B=1 T=0


vote vote vote votes
s s

The sixth method is called Condorcet Candidate. We had to choose whether
there was one or not. Yes there was and it was Marco Rubio because in all his head
to head match ups he won.


Now that we have interpreted these results using the six methods described
above, myself and the other three members of our group (Jonathan Garcia, Carli
Olsen, and Tonya Bishop) were selected to be delegates from Precinct W1-P2 and
now we must agree on one candidate at the Gerro Gordo County Convention. We all
agree the Marco Rubio is the candidate to be endorsed. He has won using 3 of the
six methods.

He is not is not a clear winner because of Majority Criterion, Condorcet
Criterion, or Monotonicity Criterion. But, the last criteria was met IIA (or
Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) Criterion. It states that the winner of an
election should not be determined by the existence or placement of other less
influential candidates. Jeb Bush was one of those candidates, he didn’t win by any
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other voting predicting methods and therefore, if he was eliminating from the
competition there would be no influence on Marco Rubio being the clear winner in
the Presidential election on the first Tuesday in November.