a.

Comportamiento de la demanda

Periodo Mes Demanda

1 1 91
2
Comportamiento de la Deman
2 64
140
3 3 89
4 4 66 120
5 5 57
100
6 6 112
7 7 77 80

Demanda
8 8 58
60
9 9 113
10 10 98 40
11 11 65
20
12 12 93
13 13 82 0
14 14 71

2
4

6
8

14

18
10

12

16

20
15 15 98
16 75 Periodo
16
17 17 102
18 18 76
19 19 59
20 20 122
21 21 88
22 22 104
23 23 73
24 24 52
25 25 111
26 26 90
27 27 75
28 28 110
29 29 85
30 30 121

b. Cálculo del pronóstico empleando el método de Winters

MODELOS BASADOS EN SERIES DE TIEMPOS

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL TRIPLE / WINTERS MULTIPLICATIVO
Periodo t Dt St Gt Ct Ft
0.86
0.72
0.78
0.56
0.83
 1.18
1.40
1.53
0.82
1.26
0.63
0 80.74 0.16 1.43 Ft
1 1 91 85.43 0.20 0.86 69.38
2 2 64 86.18 0.21 0.72 61.81
3 3 89 91.46 0.26 0.78 67.12
4 4 66 96.36 0.31 0.56 51.51
5 5 57 91.62 0.26 0.83 80.28
6 6 112 92.42 0.26 1.18 108.42
7 7 77 85.88 0.19 1.40 130.02
8 8 58 77.40 0.11 1.52 131.71
9 9 113 88.36 0.21 0.82 63.56
10 10 98 86.61 0.19 1.26 111.82
11 11 65 89.77 0.22 0.63 54.63
12 12 93 85.53 0.18 1.42 128.40
13 1 82 87.45 0.20 0.86 73.68
14 2 71 89.57 0.22 0.72 63.28
15 3 98 96.27 0.28 0.78 69.93
16 4 75 103.16 0.35 0.56 54.34
17 5 102 107.04 0.38 0.83 85.74
18 6 76 99.68 0.31 1.18 126.80
19 7 59 89.58 0.20 1.39 139.75
20 8 122 88.05 0.18 1.52 136.69
21 9 88 91.56 0.22 0.83 72.76
22 10 104 90.10 0.20 1.26 115.74
23 11 73 94.89 0.25 0.63 56.92
24 12 52 84.59 0.14 1.42 135.43
25 13 111 92.70 0.22 0.86 72.91
26 14 90 98.61 0.28 0.72 61.34
27 15 75 98.37 0.27 0.78 66.42
28 16 110 115.96 0.45 0.57 48.07
29 17 85 113.90 0.42 0.83 70.76
30 18 121 112.26 0.40 1.18 100.49
31 118.98
32 130.38
33 70.92
34 108.36
35 54.42
36 122.12
 ortamiento de la Demanda
14

18

22

28
10

12

16

20

24

26

30

Periodo

MPOS Alfa Beta Gama L

MULTIPLICATIVO 0.18 0.01 0.01 12
e=Ft-Dt |et| %et e2
e=Ft-Dt |et| %et e2 y' Dt/Y' Promedio Normalizado
-21.62 21.62 0.24 467.61 80.89 1.12 1.06 1.06
-2.19 2.19 0.03 4.78 81.05 0.79 0.82 0.82
-21.88 21.88 0.25 478.81 81.21 1.10 1.14 1.14
-14.49 14.49 0.22 210.01 81.37 0.81 0.86 0.86
23.28 23.28 0.41 541.76 81.52 0.70 0.96 0.96
-3.58 3.58 0.03 12.82 81.68 1.37 1.14 1.14
53.02 53.02 0.69 2811.06 81.84 0.94 0.82 0.82
73.71 73.71 1.27 5433.16 82.00 0.71 1.08 1.08
-49.44 49.44 0.44 2444.43 82.16 1.38 1.21 1.21
13.82 13.82 0.14 191.01 82.31 1.19 1.21 1.21
-10.37 10.37 0.16 107.50 82.47 0.79 0.83 0.83
35.40 35.40 0.38 1253.43 82.63 1.13 0.87 0.87
-8.32 8.32 0.10 69.21 82.79 0.99 1.15 1.15
-7.72 7.72 0.11 59.56 82.95 0.86 0.96 0.96
-28.07 28.07 0.29 787.75 83.10 1.18 1.03 1.03
-20.66 20.66 0.28 426.72 83.26 0.90 1.10 1.10
-16.26 16.26 0.16 264.42 83.42 1.22 1.11 1.11
50.80 50.80 0.67 2580.34 83.58 0.91 1.16 1.16
80.75 80.75 1.37 6520.40 83.73 0.70 0.70 0.70
14.69 14.69 0.12 215.65 83.89 1.45 1.45 1.45
-15.24 15.24 0.17 232.39 84.05 1.05 1.05 1.05
11.74 11.74 0.11 137.82 84.21 1.24 1.24 1.24
-16.08 16.08 0.22 258.56 84.37 0.87 0.87 0.87
83.43 83.43 1.60 6960.04 84.52 0.62 0.62 0.62
-38.09 38.09 0.34 1450.87 84.68 1.31 1.31 1.31
-28.66 28.66 0.32 821.36 84.84 1.06 1.06 1.06
-8.58 8.58 0.11 73.62 85.00 0.88 0.88 0.88
-61.93 61.93 0.56 3835.66 85.15 1.29 1.29 1.29
-14.24 14.24 0.17 202.78 85.31 1.00 1.00 1.00
-20.51 20.51 0.17 420.74 85.47 1.42 1.42 1.42
ME MAD MAPE MSE Dev. Std. 12.00 12.00
1.09 28.29 0.37 1309.14 35.36