Mackensie Shaw

Mrs. Shalabi

Math 1040

April 16, 2019

Skittles project part 2

Confidence Interval Estimates

- The purpose of taking a random sample from a lot or population and computing a

statistic, such as the mean from the data, is to approximate the mean of the population.

How well the sample statistic estimates the underlying population value is always an

issue. A confidence interval addresses this issue because it provides a range of values

which is likely to contain the population parameter of interest.

- 99% Confidence interval for the probabilities of yellow candies

- Input into calculator: STAT → TESTS → A:1-PropZint →

X: 514 N: 2591 C-Level: .99 → Calculate = (.1782, .21856)

Interpret: We are 99% confident that the population proportion of yellow Skittles lies

between .1782 and .21856

- 95% Confidence interval for # candies per bag

Mean: 58.886

Confidence interval: (58.25, 59.523)

Interpret: From the information gathered, we are 95% confident that the true value of the

population mean number of candies per bag is between 58.25 and 59.523
Hypothesis Tests

- The purpose of hypothesis testing is to determine the probability that a given hypothesis

is true. ​The Null Hypothesis H​0​ is to be tested and assumed to be true until proved wrong.

H​1​ is the alternative hypothesis and the hypothesis that we are trying to get evidence to

support.

- 0.5 significance level, and 20% of all skittles candies are red

P = .2 N= 2591 X =491 a = .05 - 1.96

np(1-p) > or equal to 10 (2591)(.2)(1-.2) = 414.56 > or equal to 10 - Yes

H​0​: = p = .2

H​1​: = p =/ .2 Type of test: 2 tailed

Z​0​: -1.336

P-Value: .182

- Interpret: Reject the null hypothesis, the P-value .182, is less than the 0.5 significance

level.

- 0.1 significance level, to test mean # of candies in a bag of skittles is 55.

H​0​: = ​'​μ' = 55

H​1: ​= ​'μ
​ ' =/ 55

T: 94.492

P: 0

X: 58.886

Sx: 2.093
 - Interpret: Reject the null hypothesis, because the the p-value 0, is less than the 0.1

significance level.

Reflection

When we want to calculate a confidence interval or do a significance test, the accuracy of

our methods depend on a few conditions. Before doing the actual computations of the interval or
test, it's important to check whether or not these conditions have been met, otherwise the
calculations and conclusions that follow aren't actually valid. The conditions for a proportion
need to be random, normal and independent. Some errors that could be made is that the
calculations could be a couple decimals off. Also people could have made mistakes in recording
the amount of skittles they had, and the skittles numbers are not consistent because most bags
had a different amount of skittles. I think the sampling method could be improved with a bigger
sample for the amount of skittles because that would make the sampling more reliable. Also I
think if everyone double checked their work it would improve the accuracy of the calculations.
The conclusions I have gained from my research is that the probability of skittles per bag were in
the confidence interval. But the hypothesis tests were incorrect both times because the p value
was less than the level of significance given.