Solution handout Problem 2:

Given: The annual precipitation at station X and the mean annual precipitation at
12 surrounding stations are given in the following table (in mm).

Find: a) Perform a consistency check using double mass analysis for the
data collected at station X.
b) In what year is a change in precipitation regime indicated?
c) Compute the mean annual precipitation for X without adjusting the
record.
d) Compute the mean annual precipitation at X after the record is
adjusted

Cumulative 12-station Cumulative

Year X Cumulative X Adjusted X adjusted X mean 12 Station
1970 47 47 38 38 29 29
1971 24 71 19 57 21 50
1972 42 113 34 90 36 86
1973 27 140 22 112 26 112
1974 25 165 20 132 23 135
1975 35 200 28 160 30 165
1976 29 229 23 183 26 191
1977 36 265 29 212 26 217
1978 37 302 30 241 26 243
1979 35 337 28 269 28 271
1980 58 395 46 316 40 311
1981 41 436 33 348 26 337
1982 34 470 34 382 24 361
1983 20 490 20 402 22 383
1984 26 516 26 428 25 408
1985 36 552 36 464 34 442
1986 35 587 35 499 28 470
1987 28 615 28 527 23 493
1988 29 644 29 556 33 526
1989 32 676 32 588 33 559
1990 39 715 39 627 35 594
1991 25 740 25 652 26 620
1992 30 770 30 682 29 649
1993 23 793 23 705 28 677
1994 37 830 37 742 34 711
1995 34 864 34 776 33 744
1996 30 894 30 806 35 779
1997 28 922 28 834 26 805
1998 27 949 27 861 25 830
1999 34 983 34 895 35 865

Mean = 32.8 mm Mean Adjusted = 29.8 mm

- Calculate the annual precipitation for station X and the 12-station mean

- Graph the Cumulative precipitation for Station X versus Cumulative precipitation

for the 12-station mean:

A change in slope indicates a change in precipitation regime; Looking at the

graph the breakpoint is found in year 1982

-Calculate the slope for the periods before and after 1982.

470 − 47
slopePr e−1982 = ( ) = 1.27
361 − 29

⎛ 983 − 470 ⎞
slope Post −1982 = ⎜ ⎟ = 1.02
⎝ 865 − 361 ⎠

The calculated Slope is used to adjust the annual precipitation for station X.
However only the annual precipitation before 1982 is adjusted

slope
X adjusted = X × ( 1982 − 1999
)
Slope 1970 − 1982

1.02
X adjusted = X × ( )
1.27
Double Mass Analysis Solution

Cumulative 12-station Cumulative

Year X Cumulative X Adjusted X adjusted X mean 12 Station
1970 47 47 38 38 29 29
1971 24 71 19 57 21 50
1972 42 113 34 90 36 86
1973 27 140 22 112 26 112
1974 25 165 20 132 23 135
1975 35 200 28 160 30 165
1976 29 229 23 183 26 191
1977 36 265 29 212 26 217
1978 37 302 30 241 26 243
1979 35 337 28 269 28 271
1980 58 395 46 316 40 311
1981 41 436 33 348 26 337
1982 34 470 34 382 24 361
1983 20 490 20 402 22 383
1984 26 516 26 428 25 408
1985 36 552 36 464 34 442
1986 35 587 35 499 28 470
1987 28 615 28 527 23 493
1988 29 644 29 556 33 526
1989 32 676 32 588 33 559
1990 39 715 39 627 35 594
1991 25 740 25 652 26 620
1992 30 770 30 682 29 649
1993 23 793 23 705 28 677
1994 37 830 37 742 34 711
1995 34 864 34 776 33 744
1996 30 894 30 806 35 779
1997 28 922 28 834 26 805
1998 27 949 27 861 25 830
1999 34 983 34 895 35 865
Mean = 32.8 Mean Adjusted = 29.8

From the graph the breakpoint is 1982

Slope 1970-1982 = (470-47)/(361-29) = 1.27

Slope 1982-1999 = (983-470)/(865-361) = 1.02

Only the data prior to 1982 is adjusted

Xadjusted = X* (1.02/1.27) = X * 0.8
 550

530

408; 516
Cumulative annual precipitation at station X (mmm)

510

490 383; 490

470 361; 470

1982

450 Series1

337; 436
430

410

311; 395
390

370

350
250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450
cumulative of annual precipitation at the 12 station (mm)
 1000

900
Cumulative annual precipitation at station X (mmm)

800

700

600

Cumul X
500
1982 Adjusted X

400

300

200

100

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
cumulative of annual precipitation at the 12 station (mm)