Fti 2019trends Partii 190314204115 PDF

20Tech
Trends
Report
12th Annual Edition
19
Emerging science
and technology
trends that will
influence business,
government,
education, media
and society in the
coming year.
07
© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE
ENTERTAINMENT
MEDIA
AND E-SPORTS
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
192 eSports
193 Mixed Reality Arcades
194 MMOMRGs
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TREND 192 First year on the list
HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
eSports
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! One game that entered the global zeitgeist entertainment for generations to come. speed, size and agility that dominate many
in the past year was Fortnite, with a re- Audiences, prize amounts, and investments traditional sports, and access to expensive
eSports is the rapidly growing industry ported 125 million players across all plat- are skyrocketing, and even the Interna- equipment and facilities are not critical
of competitive digital gaming, specifically forms. Parent company Epic Games was tional Olympic Committee has taken note, factors—it is often viewed as more acces-
when performed professionally and for a quick to capitalize on Fortnite’s success, initiating conversations with the eSports sible for the average novice than classic
live streaming, broadcast, or in-person pledging a record $100 million in prize community and teasing the potential addi- athletic sports, closing the gulf between
audience. While organized competitive money for the game’s tournament season tion of gaming to future Olympic Games. fans and competitors, and resulting in a
gaming has arguably existed for decades, this year. Tournaments have helped take more engaged audience.
advancements in both gaming technology gaming from a household pastime to the What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
and streaming capabilities have led to an eSports is also viewed as one of the first
formally organized and internationally rec- truly global entertainment mediums in its
astronomical rise in its popularity and per- eSports had a global audience of approx-
ognized competitive pursuit we now know reach and influence, which has investors
ceived legitimacy in recent years. imately 167 million in 2018, a number
as eSports. The 2018 World Championship salivating. The industry could be worth as
that’s expected to soar to over 275 million
for League of Legends—like Fortnite, an- much as $2 billion by 2022. Sponsorship of
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! by 2022, rivaling viewership for major
other wildly popular game in the Multiplay- teams, tournaments, and broadcasts will
sports leagues like the NFL. The majority
With a young audience—more than 80% er Online Battle Arena genre—reportedly likely continue to represent about a third
of eSports content is viewed online, with
age 35 or younger—and enormous revenue drew as many as 200 million concurrent of the revenue opportunity, but watch for
massive audience segments in China and
potential, eSports is primed to continue its viewers, making it the most watched eS- media rights to grow within that time to
Korea, and fast-growing fandom in the US,
growth as a major cultural phenomenon in ports event in history. about a 40% share.
Europe, and worldwide.
the near future, with significant expected The stakes are now such that eSports is a
impact on the gaming, sports, stream- There are a number of unique factors
legitimate full-time job for many top com- that contribute to the industry’s growth Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
ing, entertainment, and tech investment petitors—many of whom employ coaches,
sectors. Twitch, the primary streaming potential. Because eSports has relatively Twitch; YouTube; Douyu; Huya; Tencent;
endure rigorous training regimens, com-
portal for eSports in the Western world, low barriers to entry for potential partici- ESPN; Epic Games (Fortnite); Riot Games
pete in national leagues and rake in sev-
logged a staggering 800,000 years worth pants—games reward eye-hand coordina- (League of Legends); Activision Blizzard;
en-figure sums—and the industry is poised
of content viewed in 2018 alone. (Twitch tion, strategic thought and concentration Cloud9; Andy Dinh and Team SoloMid; aXi-
to define a new paradigm in competitive
was acquired by Amazon in 2014.) more than athletic qualities like strength, omatic; Tyler Blevins (“Ninja”).

Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Scenarios for eSports Spinoffs
The Revolutionary Gamification of Education

eSports, especially in connection with mixed reality tech, will create a new framework for the gamification of education. With younger generations in particular becoming increasingly
enthralled with and fluent in digital gaming, eSports expands to the field of education, offering interactive and incentivized lessons in various academic topics. A popular current game
like Assassin’s Creed draws its characters and environments directly from historical narratives—a more accurate and less sensationalized version of this type of game revolutionizes
the way students learn history, for example. Game narratives are designed to expose students to key events and cultural elements of a given region and era, and a system of digital cred-
its, exchangeable for real-world perks, rewards those who demonstrate their knowledge retention through in-game challenges, incentivizing learning. Extended to various disciplines,
the system increases the level of engagement and information retention of students, raises the baseline of education of communities where it is implemented, and through scalability
eases institutional stress in the education industry caused by a disproportionate student-to-teacher ratio.
A Sandbox for Crowdsourced Architectural Design

With eSports, especially MMORPGs or MOBA games that allow characters to build and interact with modular structures, platform administrators have access to a massive amount of
dynamic behavioral user data. As game participation increases and worlds become more rich and expansive, game environments will be used to develop and test designs, especially for
architectural and civic construction. For example, place two structures at spawn locations in a game landscape, each rendered according to different design proposals for the same
project. As players spawn at each location, the game can monitor crowdflow through the structures, effectively A/B testing each design and helping engineers decide which will be the
most efficient before investing in physical construction. Alternatively, admins could simply monitor the structures built by players, using user data to determine design preferences in
different demographic cross-sections and adjusting real-world construction accordingly. Harnessing the power of this crowd-sourced data is only one of the ways that eSports could
revolutionize industries beyond the world of gaming.
eSports Becomes an Arena of Mass Corruption

With the sudden growth of the eSports industry, we will reach a point in the next decade where winnings are at an all-time peak, and regulators haven’t yet managed to comprehend
and keep pace with the complex and rapidly burgeoning platforms. This will leave an open door for bad actors to take advantage of the situation by going to great and nefarious lengths
to give themselves an advantage over their foes. Deception and exploitation may take the form of a player implanting bionic enhancements to give themselves an edge—a smart contact
lens could detect on-screen threats or developments outside the player’s sightline and suggest a strategic response; an adrenal implant could provide a player with a sudden synthetic
boost of energy and alertness on-demand; surgical manipulation could enhance the muscle and bone structure of the hand to better accommodate the controller. And those are just
within the human body—eSports’ greatest vulnerabilities will lie in the digital inner workings of the games being played. Fraudulent teams could deploy an algorithm that masquerades as
a human-controlled character, intervening only to prevent critical errors so as to avoid detection. Tournament organizers could surreptitiously tweak the response times of a competi-
tor’s controller or console at crucial moments during a match if they have a furtive betting interest in the competitor’s opponent. Unless and until an independent authoritative governing
body is established in eSports that has a deep understanding of the technology and an unwavering moral compass, the space will become severely vulnerable to corruption and fraud.
– Marc Palatucci
220
TREND 193 Second year on the list
Mixed Reality Arcades

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! strap in to a host of games—but this time Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

around, they don’t take quarters. Startup
There are a host of fun, interactive mixed Virtual World Arcade offers a membership Intel; Grand View Research; HTC; Samsung;
reality games on the market—but not package for unlimited VR time. In Tokyo, VR Viveland; Oculus; Facebook; Alphabet;
everyone can afford the computer and Park offers more than basic games—play- VRNISH; Inception VR.
gaming equipment necessary to play. As ers can opt-in to swinging harnesses, fly-
a result, a new kind of arcade for the ing platforms and platforms that simulate
next-generation of gamer is coming to a bungee jumping, flying and yes, even falling
venue near you. off skyscrapers.
Mixed Reality arcades are bringing games to Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

everyone using new business models and cut- In the 1980s, video game arcades became Mixed Reality arcades are proving to be
ting-edge equipment. popular—at first with geeky kids and then a big business. We expect that as the
the mainstream masses, as Pac Man, MR market matures, we’ll see additional
Galaga and Space Invaders consoles arcades opening up everywhere. One dis-
popped up all around the world. They took tinction that might keep MR arcades from
off because kids and adults alike both going the way of Pac Man—all the haptic
loved playing them—and because early at- interfaces. As games become more immer-
home consoles and computers were still sive, players will need to update more
too costly for the average person. We’re than their headsets and consoles. At some
in a similar transition now, as VR games point, it might be easier and more cost
move from the fringe to the mainstream. effective to buy a membership rather than
Mixed Reality gaming parks are opening up a new flight suit every few months.
everywhere, giving everyone the ability to

MMOMRGs
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! they take a really long time to play. It’s hard Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
to imagine wiring in to a gaming system
MMORPGs—massively multiplayer online and physically moving your body around for Ubisoft; Sony CSL; Sony PlayStationOrbus
role-playing games—have been a staple of hours at a time, swinging virtual swords at VR; Oculus; HTC; Survios; Alphabet; Apple;
the online gaming community for years. A goblins or running to catch up with friends. The Void; Harmonix; Otherside Entertain-
huge number of players interact with each ment; ILMxLAB; VRX Networks; Steel Crate
other in a virtual environment. World of What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Games; Playful Corp; Microsoft; Magic
Warcraft and Final Fantasy are incredibly Leap; CCP Games; Activision Blizzard En-
popular MMORPG’s. Second Life was a Sony’s CSL has built a mixed reality head- tertainment; Electronic Arts; Tencent.
virtual world—and in 2015, players even set, allowing collaborative play between
built an MMO inside of it called Remnants of players who can see each others’ views.
Inside Remnants of Earth.
Earth. What’s coming next are MMORPGs Orbus VR is an early attempt at a new kind
that are built using mixed reality. of game allowing players to move around
their rooms, go on quests with friends
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! and chat with others. It’s likely that a new
breed of MMORPGs—a sort of hybrid Sec-
Creating a virtual world is difficult enough. ond Life and EVE Online—could be lurking
Making that world immersive, so that you just around the corner. This could also set
can enter it using VR or AR, and still inter- the stage for future MMORPGs that offer
act with other avatars under a wide variety more than quests and dragons—special-
of circumstances, is incredibly complicat- ized worlds could be built for online dating,
ed. Another hallmark of MMORPGs is that training and even diplomacy.
222
Optimistic Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
VR Revolutionizes, Brings
Together the Gaming and
Entertainment Industries
With its non-exclusionary price tag and democratizing appeal
for users of diverse backgrounds and interests, VR technol-
ogy creates a new culture of fully absorptive social gaming
and new styles of entertainment media content, all accessible
from a single device, and from the comfort of one’s own home.
Gaming and video content as we know it are redefined entire-
ly, with new hybrid forms emerging that blend narrative and
interactive elements in sprawling immersive digital worlds.
– Marc Palatucci
224
08
MARKETING AND
ADVERTISING
TECHNOLOGIES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
195 VR For Marketing
196 Offline Connections
197 Retail APIs
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TREND 195 Fourth year on the list
VR For Marketing
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
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Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Formula One superstar Lewis Hamilton.

This, of course, highlights an impend-
Emerging research suggests that virtual VR is being used for both B-to-B and ing ethical challenge. In the near-future
reality storytelling, when it’s done well, B-to-C marketing. Key Technology, which brands will have a unique opportunity to
rewires all of us—we are likely to develop manufactures food processing sys- tap directly into our minds, persuading us
new belief biases as a result. tems, built a VR marketing experience to through immersive storytelling.
help vendors see its digital food sorting
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! platform in action. Lowes stores offers Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
virtual skills training in VR, guiding DIYers
For more than a decade, scientists have HQSoftware; Deep VR; 360 Profilms; Light
through home improvement projects. Both
been studying “virtual reality exposure Sail VR; Perception Squared; TaKanto VR;
BMW and Volvo have created apps allowing
VR is an effective marketing tool. therapy,” which has been used exten- Circos VR; Helios Interactive; Rewind;
would-be buyers to test drive one of their
sively to treat veterans suffering from Reverge VR; BBH; Goodby Silverstein &
cars. But unlike the usual test drive with a
post-traumatic stress syndrome. Because Partners; VirtualSKY; Leo Burnett; BBDO;
nagging salesperson trying to convince you
VR is completely immersive, it can closely Facebook; Droga5; Ogilvy & Mather; Ra-
to buy the upgraded sport mode package,
simulate nearly any scenario. Patients, zorfish; Weiden+Kennedy; GSD&M; VML;
you instead interact with the vehicle on
guided by trained therapists, are embed- Critical Mass; Three One Zero; Valve; Wevr;
gorgeous open roads, in the best possible
ded into VR stories that represent a trau- Alphabet; Innerspace VR; StartVR; Epic
weather, all by yourself. Spend enough
ma they’ve experienced. Over time, this Games; Survios.
time with the apps, and your belief bias will
therapy results in new neuropathways—be-
shove your logical mind into the back seat.
liefs, attitudes and reactions are changed,
You might start to think that inside one
for better or for worse. This presents an
of those cars, every day is a traffic free
interesting opportunity for marketers.
holiday where you have the driving skills of

Optimistic Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
VR Augments Corporate Social

Responsibility Initiatives
VR heightens our ability to feel emotion based on immersive con-
tent, a quality that proves productive in raising awareness and
action surrounding humanitarian and environmental causes. Com-
panies use VR as part of their CSR initiatives to help us witness
firsthand site-specific environmental and social crises. We are
moved as a result, increasing compassion and motivation to take
action.
– Marc Palatucci
228
Offline Connections
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

As consumers shift to their mobile devices, In the US, consumers now spend an av- Until news consumers have ubiquitous
developers are making sure their apps erage of five hours a day on their mobile access to cheap, fast data, offline reading
work offline. devices. As consumers move about our will be a necessity. News organizations
days—commuting, walking around the that include seamless, offline experiences
office, or sitting through a Little League will find sticker audiences.
game—they still find themselves offline.
Netflix, YouTube and Amazon Prime now Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
feature offline viewing, allowing consum- Tencent; Baidu; Google Play; Pocket; Ama-
ers to temporarily download videos to
Netflix now allows users to watch videos offline. zon; news organizations everywhere.
watch at their leisure.
A number of news aggregators—including
Google, Smartnews and Apple—want to
capitalize on the time consumers devote to
their screens, even when the WiFi signal is
weak. The Washington Post’s progressive
web app cuts mobile page load times from
4 seconds to 80 milliseconds and allows
consumers to read news stories without a
data or WiFi connection.

TREND 197 Third year on the list
Retail APIs
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

There are now hundreds of APIs built for Retailers are using APIs to help customers Retailers need to expand their reach
marketing and retail operations. Applica- and partners discover them more easily beyond brick and mortar stores, and also
tion programming interfaces, or APIs, are online, learn about products and services beyond the traditional e-commerce site.
tools for building software applications. and to interact with the customer even The Curbside ARRIVE API helps retailers
Retailers are making their data available when she’s not shopping. Walmart hosts predict when customers will arrive to pick
to developers, and marketers in the form Walmart Open API, which is its own devel- up their products. APIs could give retailers
of APIs in order to provide consumers and oper network. The program, still in beta as a reason to keep their brick and mortar
partners a host of new services. of early 2019, seeks to connect the prod- stores open—as more shopping shifts to
ucts it sells to digital distribution part- online, APIs could be used as a clever way
The new Walmart Open API Developer Portal
ners. Through its API program, Walgreens to keep consumers engaged in the physical
will soon allow developers to buila apps for
works with more than 275 partners. Home world—using their digital devices.
Walmart’s product catalog.
furnishings retailer Wayfair offers an API
so that developers can build a 3D library— Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
the goal is to help the company’s expansion RevenueWire; Ikea; Walmart; Braze; Send-
into virtual and augmented realty. Grid; MuleSoft; CVS; Walgreens; Master-
card; Wayfair; Zendesk; Walmart; Her-
shey’s; Amazon; Lowes; Home Depot.
230
09
ENERGY
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
198 Green Tech
199 Charging Stations
200 Ultra-High-Voltage Direct Current and Macro Grids
201 Better Batteries
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 202 Wireless Charging Everywhere
203 Energy Trading Platforms for Blockchain
204 Zero Carbon Natural Gas
205 Floating Nuclear Energy Plants
TREND 198 Fifth year on the list
Green Tech
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Regardless, the rest of the world has makes high-altitude kites to harness wind
decided to move in a different direction. energy. The company says that wind en-
Global energy consumption is expected to China is installing a record number of solar ergy has the potential to power the world
grow over the next few years, and solar projects and wind turbines, to deal with 100 times over, but only 4% of the world’s
panels, electric vehicles and wind turbines crippling smog. The Chinese government electricity comes from wind.
will gain importance — despite a White is investing $560 billion over the next two
House that repeatedly demonstrates its years to make green tech more accessible What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
hostility to green technologies. not only within China, but for its export Extreme weather events and ongoing
partners around the world. Wind and solar
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! climate change have a lot of very smart
energy are getting a lift: Billionaire Philip people seriously worried. Renewables will
President Donald Trump not only pulled Anschutz, who built his fortunes in oil and
New green tech initiatives are launching world- take on a bigger importance in 2019 and
out of the Paris Climate Agreement, his railroads, announced he build large-scale
wide. beyond. The International Energy Agen-
administration quietly released a report wind farms in Wyoming, while tech billion- cy says that renewable energy will make
forecasting a catastrophic 7-degree aire Elon Musk is partnering with a number up about 40% of the global power grid
Fahrenheit rise in global temperatures by of companies to build attractive solar by 2040. We should see faster growth in
the year 2100. Buried inside a National panels that look more like slate shingles green tech over the next five years than
Highway Traffic Safety Administration re- than the reflective rectangles we’ve seen we have seen to date.
port, the finding was part of a proposal to to date — he, and others, are also devel-
roll back fuel-efficiency standards, which oping new methods to create and store Municipalities and corporations are
would increase greenhouse gas emissions. energy using battery systems. A team of pushing that needle. More than 100 cities
In essence, the administration said the researchers at MIT is developing offshore across the globe report that as much as
planet would burn regardless, so our best wind turbines that can store power on 70% of their energy production now comes
path forward is to simply ignore it and live the ocean floor in huge concrete spheres. from renewables, and at least 40 cities
for today. Makani, recently acquired by Google, and 158 companies committed to dial that
up to 100%. Hundreds more cities pledged

to move to renewable energy production. Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Global Pvq SE; Hanergy Thin Film Power
Even Saudi Arabia is working on a detailed, Group Ltd; Inox Wind; Hiangsu Akcome
long- term plan to help diversify its econ- Canadian Solar Inc; First Solar Inc; At- Science & Technology Co; Makani; Google;
omy and move away from oil. To do this, lantica Yield PLC; Vestas Wind Systems; Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has Xinjiang Goldwind Science and Technolo-
bold visions for the future of his kingdom: gy; GCL-Poly Energy Holding Ltd; Energy
allowing women to drive and to work in pri- Acuity; Cypress Creek Renewables; First
vate employment, selling shares of Aramco Solar; NextEra Energy; EcoPlexus; 8minu-
(the Saudi state-run oil monopoly), and a teenergy; sPower; SunPower; Recurrent
“utility scale” solar project. Energy; Intersect Power; Hecate Energy;
Energcon; Siemens; Sulzon Group; GE;
In 2019, we will also see faster deployment Gamesa; United Power; Ming Yang; Nordex;
of “microgrids,” which can operate auton- Pacific Ethanol; Renewable Energy Group;
omously using artificial intelligence and Toyota; CropEnergies AG; GCL-Poly Energy
can offer energy in developing countries, Holdings; Schneider Electric; Johnson
where as many as a billion people still live Controls; XENDEE; WorleyParsons Group;
without electricity. Companies like XENDEE Argonne-Northwestern Solar Energy Re-
in San Diego and WorleyParsons Group search (ANSER) Center, Friedrich-Alexan-
have developed cloud software tools for der-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU);
those microgrids. And energy storage will Power Company of Wyoming; ABB Ltd;
fast improve. Scientists in Germany and Motech; Tesla; SolarCity; Panasonic; Ves-
Northwestern University in Chicago, for tas; Bombardier Phillips; Emerson Electric;
instance, are making advances in “singlet Dong Energy; Xinjiang Goldwind Science;
fission” technology to generate more elec- First Wind Solar; Samsung; Saudi Arabia
tricity from solar cells. Government; SoftBank; Apple; Amazon;
234
Charging Stations
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
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Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! tional new cars sold all year. Battery prices America will put charging stations in 100 lottery tickets, cigarettes, maintenance
are dropping fast, most major automakers Walmarts in 34 states. The nation’s largest items, chips, sodas, sweets and more.
In the coming years, an unprecedented are staking their futures on lineups of fully charging company, ChargePoint, will open Once consumers no longer need to stop
number of charging stations for electric electric vehicles. Widespread adoption 2.5 million charging stalls by 2025, up from for gas, all of the adjacent industries will
vehicles will come online, driving demand requires more charging stations. 53,000. Another company, EVgo created a see an economic hit. Now is the time for
for a new kind of car and disrupting the modular fast charging station that can be gas companies to envision their future
traditional gasoline supply chain and retail Building new charging stations involves
plenty of red tape with local utilities and installed in a matter of days. Google Maps, business models.
business. ChargePoint and PlugShare will make
real estate. Yet Volkswagen will install
2,800 charging stations in 17 of the it easier for people to find those elec- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! tric vehicle charging stations from their
largest US cities by June 2019, as part of Volkswagen; Google; PlugShare; Charge-
The US is banning fossil-fuel cars by 2040; its settlement for Dieselgate. But most smart phones, as well as see the types of Point; Electrify America; Tesla; Ionity; Blink
in France, the ban takes effect in 2030. networks are being installed by govern- charging ports and prices, plus rate and CarCharging; Envision Solar; SemaConnect;
General Motors will launch 20 new EV ments, utilities, and third-party companies. review them. ChargePoint; PlugShare; Saudi Aramco;
models by 2023, and BMW, Nissan, Jag- California leads the way: Former Governor As more charging stations expand into Sinopec; China National Petroleum Cor-
uar, Porsche, Audi, Volkswagen, Volvo and Jerry Brown promised to get 5 million communities everywhere, it will start to poration; Petro China; Royal Dutch Shell;
Tesla introduced EVs this past year with electric vehicles on the road by 2030 and have a chilling effect on independent and Exxon Mobil; BP; Lukoil; Kuwait Petroleum
more models to come. This year, Jaguar, 250,000 EV chargers in the ground by corporate gasoline station chains, as well Corporation; Chevron Corporation; Valero
Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz will launch 2025. Oklahoma, New York and Colorado as on the local communities that are sup- Energy; Conoco Phillips; Royal Farms;
high-profile electric cars, and we’ll also state governments also recently unveiled ported by them. Wawa; Suncor Energy; vendors to gas
see for the first time that the battery plans to invest in networks of electric stands; EV car manufacturers worldwide;
range for all models will be greater than charging station. This follows the 13 What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! the state governments for Colorado, Cali-
200 miles, offering another incentive to states that adopted stricter vehicle emis- fornia, New York, New Jersey and Oklaho-
consumers. Last year, the United States Everyone in the gasoline supply chain
sions limits, and California’s zero-emis- ma.
passed 1 million electric vehicles sold, should get ready for disruption. Gas sta-
sions rules for mass transit. Electrify
nothing compared to the 81 million tradi- tions provide more than just fuel—they sell

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Backlash Against EVs

In 2018 and 2019, pickup truck drivers in the US used
their vehicles to block Tesla’s EV Superchargers. It’s
called “ICEing,” after traditional internal combustion
engines. Yelling profanities at EV car owners, pickup
drivers taunt them until they leave. ICEing itself is just
a manifestation of a bigger trend: consumer backlash
against new car technology that is fundamentally differ-
ent from what they know. We anticipate more tension as
EVs and charging stations roll out this year.
236
Ultra-High-Voltage Direct
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Current and Macro Grids REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

In the near-future, we will transport clean A national direct-current macro grid ABB; China; India; OPEC countries; ABB; GE;
energy from production sites to areas could drastically lower emissions in an Hitachi; Mitsubishi Electric Corporation;
where power is needed, using a new kind affordable way, without compromising our Siemens; AGTransWest Express Transmis-
of power grid being tested in China. access to electricity. Meanwhile, China sion Project; US Department of Energy; the
has already moved ahead of the US. China DOE’s Grid Modernization Initiative.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! is an enormous country, and it is heavily
investing in green technologies. The first
In the US and throughout Europe, electrici-
800,000 volt line, from a dam in Yunnan
ty is generated at a power station and then
Province to Shanghai, has already been
China’s major ultra-high voltage transmission transmitted using alternating current. But
completed. Next up, the Changji-Guquan
system is underway. AC is inefficient over very long distances,
system, which can carry half the entire
and even smart grids haven’t always been
power use of Spain spanning the east-
able to cope with climate change and our
west expanse of the country. China has
increasing consumer demands for heat
made it known that it plans to transport
and air conditioning. A new kind of trans-
clean energy all around the world, and its
mission system—ultra-high-voltage direct
Belt and Road Initiative could help it along.
current (UHVDCs)—is being tested in China,
Fifty years from now, it’s conceivable that
which has invested $88 billion to build the
we’re all reliant on China—rather than
future of UHVDCs and macro grids. India
OPEC countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
has made a similar investment.
Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nige-
ria, Qatar, Algeria, Angola and Ecuador)
for our energy needs.

Better Batteries
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
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REVISIT
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Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Musk’s battery is the size of an American have limits, though, which is why research- of their storage capabilities. Plenty are
football field—not exactly the right size for ers at the University of California-Irvine working on the task, including Daimler AG,
It’s a common first-world problem: our your mobile phone. But there are a number are experimenting with gold nanowires Fisker Inc., Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. in
devices never seem to have enough bat- of researchers and startups hoping to housed in a gel electrolyte, which can last China, spinoffs from the Massachusetts
tery life, and just when we need power the bring new kinds of batteries, capable of significantly longer than today’s batter- Institute of Technology, Stanford Univer-
most, we either forget our chargers or storing renewable energy, to market soon. ies. Form Energy will build a “bidirectional sity and Tokyo Institute of Technology.
can’t find a spot to plug in. Building a bet- power plant” that stores energy long- If they’re successful, EV charging times
ter battery has been an elusive challenge What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! term, producing renewable energy and could drop to 10 minutes from several
for decades—that could change in 2019. delivering it precisely when it is needed. hours.
The problem with modern batteries isn’t
about making the power—it’s how to store To help EVs really take off, though,
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
enough of it. Startup Ossia Inc. built a someone needs to reinvent the bat-
In 2016, South Australia suffered a mas- wireless charging system that can power tery. That’s starting to happen. Spanish Tesla; Alphabet; Baseload Renewables; Uni-
sive blackout, which Prime Minister Mal- AA batteries from 30 feet away. Alphabet’s startup Graphenano built a battery out versity of California-Irvine; Tokyo Institute
colm Turnbull blamed on renewable energy Project Malta aims to capture more clean of graphene that charges a car in eight of Technology; Graphenano; Form Energy;
targets—the push towards renewables energy when it’s produced, by using salt to minute and will open the first battery man- Massachusetts Institute of Technology;
is what led to the problem, he argued. In store it on a large scale. ufacturing plant with this material. Solid Ionic Materials; Solid Firm; Toyota; Nissan;
response, Elon Musk offered to build a state batteries, which promise to be safer, Graphenano; General Motors; Huawei; En-
massive battery farm, capable of storing Luxury watchmaker Ressence’s Type 2
cheaper, boost the amount of energy a ergous Corp; the Federal Communications
enough wind and solar energy to power e-Crown Concept smartwatch collects and
battery cell can store, not to mention they Commission; Qualcomm; US Department
all of South Australia when usage grew stores energy created when you walk, as
may charge faster, bringing an electric ve- of Energy; MIT Department of Materials
too high—and that he’d do it in 100 days, well as solar energy when you’re outdoors.
hicle’s driving range in line with a full tank Science and Engineering; Ossia Inc; Khosla
or the whole thing would be free. The local Cambridge, Massachusetts-based start-
of gas. By using solid materials instead of Ventures; Founders Fund; Daimler AG;
government accepted his offer, and Musk up Baseload Renewables is working to
flammable liquids in batteries, it could be Fisker Inc.; Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co.
delivered on his promise, and the system market batteries that can store renewable
a boon to automakers which hit the limits
has been up and running since November energy in a battery. Lithium-ion batteries
2017.
238
TRENDS 202 - 205
More Energy Tech Trends INFORMS ACT
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202 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! verifying transactions. Meantime a con- 205 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sortium that includes BP and Shell are now
Wireless Charging Everywhere Floating Nuclear Energy Plants
developing a blockchain-based platform to
Charging our devices will be less – tangled trade energy commodities. In an attempt to increase nuclear prolif-
– in 2019 and beyond. Laptops, earphones, eration, Russia is working on a new kind
mobile devices and even portable batteries 204 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! of energy plant that can float and move
will be chargeable without wires in 2019. with currents at the same time withstand-
Zero Carbon Natural Gas
This year we should see universal wireless ing harsh environments. A barge called
chargers capable of powering our devices. We could see natural gas plants in the near the Akademik Lomonosov will be towed
Apple announced a wireless charging case future that are able to capture all of its through the Arctic and stationed in Siberia.
Russia is working on a new kind of energy plant for its AirPods 2, while Energysquare and emissions at zero cost using a technolo- By the end of 2919, two nuclear reactors
that can float. Unravel offer wireless charging for multi- gy called carbon capture and storage, or will begin producing enough electricity
ple devices at once. CSS. While the tech has been around for to power the grid for the town of Pevek,
decades, it hadn’t been deployed at scale. enough for about 40,000 homes. There are
203 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Last July, US startup Net Power success- already buyers interested in this technolo-
fully built a prototype plant that ran a full gy, including Indonesia, the Philippines and
Energy Trading Platforms for Blockchain
cycle without releasing troublesome emis- Chile.
In 2018, companies in Singapore started sions into the air. It hopes to scale up to a
buying and selling renewable energy cer- full-size plant by 2021. New tax credits of
tificates on a blockchain-powered system. up to $50 for each metric ton of emissions
Like carbon trading in other markets, captured and stored by a power plant or
Singapore’s system, launched by utilities factory will likely help accelerate wider
provider SP Group, allows for more trans- adoption of this technology.
parency and lower costs because there
is no central intermediary processing and

240
10
CLIMATE
AND GEOSCIENCE
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
206 Anthropocene
207 Trying to Predict Sea Level Rise
208 Extreme Weather Events
209 Human Migration Patterns Shift
210 Lots and Lots of Sand
211 Oceanic Fertilization
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
212 Reflecting Sunlight
213 Manipulating Clouds
214 Eating Ocean Trash
215 Artificial Trees
216 Smart Boats
217 Smarter Plastics
218 Intelligent Packaging
Anthropocene
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60% of the Earth’s wildlife geological epoch. The group, comprised of collided with Earth and led to the end of the
scientists who were both in favor of and dinosaurs. It significantly and permanently
has been wiped out since against declaring a new epoch, reached a alters the underlying sedimentary and rock
1970. Plummeting numbers consensus in early 2018. While much de- layers beneath the surface of the planet,
bate ensued, we are now seeing concrete, resulting in visible changes that can be
of mammals, reptiles, publicly-available research corroborating seen and measured.
amphibians, birds and fish the designation. The “Anthropocene” (anthro for “man,” and
around the world are an Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
cene for “new”) marks a new geographic
epoch. (Our previous epoch was called the
urgent sign that nature Scientists within the AWG and outside “Holocene,” which began 11,700 years ago
Earth’s new geological layers show that humans needs life support. have determined that humans have left a just after the last ice age.)
have left a permanent mark on the planet. permanent mark on the planet. The new
– World Wildlife Fund Living Planet geological layers we are creating are rid- What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Report 2018 dled with chemicals and industrial waste, Recognizing that humans have made a per-
pavement, plastic, nuclear fallout, dams, manent, visible mark on the planet is the
everyday garbage, pesticide runoff and first step in studying the future implica-
more. We’ve caused our sea levels to rise tions to our planet.
Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! and our lakes and rivers to dry up, and
An international, independent team of sci- extreme weather events are a normal part Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
entists, called the Anthropocene Working of daily living on Earth.
Group, has now found enough evidence to Anthropocene Working Group; the Union
A new epoch is defined following a cat-
support the official declaration of a new of Concerned Scientists; the International
aclysmic event—like the asteroid that Union of Geological Sciences; the Nature
Conservancy; US Geological Survey.

Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Unintended Consequences of

Choosing A Name
We humans are Earth’s first species to wield planet-scale influ-
ence. Using the term “anthropocene” going forward may be a call
to arms for some—but it could result in others simply giving up and
giving in to climate change. For those who find more comfort in
fatalism than in having to generate bold new ideas for the future,
agreeing that we’re in this new epoch could result in global apa-
thy. The sins of generations who came before us can’t be reversed
now, so what’s the point? We’ll either need to find another host
planet, or agree that humanity is nearing an end.
– Future Today Institute Research Team
244
Trying to Predict Sea

INFORMS ACT
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

We’re getting better at understanding how The federal Global Change Research British-American International Thwaites
ice sheets and sea levels change over time. Program predicts that we’ll continue to Glacier Collaboration; Columbia University;
This year, there will be a lot of focus on experience heavier rainfall in the US North- NOAA; NASA.
trying to measure the rate of change. east and around the globe. We’ll see sea
levels continue to rise in the next century,
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! perhaps by as much 8 feet. (Almost half of
the 8-inch increase since 1900 occurred in
Sea levels have risen 11 inches in Man-
just the last 25 years.) Meanwhile, earlier
hattan in the past 100 years. Exactly how
spring snowmelt and reduced snowpack
We’ll see sea levels continue to rise in the next
much it will rise in the next 100 years isn’t
will lead to chronic, long-term drought.
century, perhaps by as much 8 feet.
something we don’t yet know. But recent
hurricanes, nor’easters and other storm Glaciers around the world are melting
systems proved that uncertainties about at alarming rates—but trying to predict
future extreme weather events, along with how quickly large chunks will slide into
climate change, will cause us problems in the oceans have proven challenging for
the future. Scientists are working to devel- researchers. One of the research missions
op new methods and models to understand kicking off in 2019 will take 100 scientists
how our sea levels are changing. to the Thwaites Glacier, where they will
learn more about melting ice from Antarc-
tica and how soon it could increase sea
levels to a high enough point that coastal
areas – Manhattan included – could be
threatened.

TREND 208 Second YEAR ON THE LIST
Extreme Weather
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Extreme weather is now our new normal. sticking around longer and causing more Climate Agreement.
Last year became the year of mega fires. damage — just like when Hurricane Harvey Over the past two years, two states—New
An extreme weather event is one that falls Spurred by heat waves and drought, as hung over Texas causing billions of dollars
outside the norms of typical weather pat- York and Massachussetts—launched fraud
many as 21 large wildfires ravaged Mon- worth of damage. investigations into Exxon over climate
terns. They became a worldwide phenome- tana, covering 438,000 acres. Northern
na in 2017. change, and New York’s attorney gen-
California, also suffering from drought and What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! eral sued the company. Plus nine cities
record heat, witnessed fires that burned and counties, including New York and San
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Expect more of the same. Last fall, the
more than 757 square miles, destroyed United Nations’ scientific panel on climate Francisco, filed suit against oil companies,
Our globe’s surface air temperature 15,157 homes and killed 85 people and including BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exx-
change issued a dire report revealing that
increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the forced thousands from their homes. The onMobile and Royal Dutch Shell for climate
scientific models show that at our current
last 115 years, making it the warmest in Mendicino Complex Fire became the larg- change damages. A group of 21 kids ages
rate, the atmosphere will warm as much as
the history of modern civilization. The last est in state history and gave birth to a new 11 to 22 are currently suing the Trump
1.5 degrees Celsius, leading to a dysto-
three years, in particular, proved to be term: “firenado,” or a rising and spinning Administration for failing to safeguard the
pian future of food shortages, wildfires,
the warmest years on record, and during stream of flames that destroy everything environment.
extreme winters, a mass die-off of coral
that time, we’ve seen record-breaking, in its path. One such fire vortex topped out reefs and more—as soon as 2040. That’s
climate-related weather extremes. A 2019 at 17,000 feet above the earth. just 20 years from now. Business Implications of
report by the Bulletin of the American Last year also marked the third-consec- Extreme Weather ! ! ! ! ! !
Meteorological Society (BAMS) confirmed Meanwhile, political leadership is shifting
utive most damaging Atlantic hurricane
the link between the earth’s rising tem- to the far right in many countries around Large natural disasters can slow region-
season with 15 storms, eight hurricanes,
perature and extreme weather events. The the world—countries which happen to al economic growth for decades, impact
with two of them being major hurricanes.
report relied on a team of 120 scientists produce a lot of pollution. In Brazil, voters productivity and lead to post-traumatic
Researchers at NOAA National Centers
from 10 different countries and used his- supported candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who stress among survivors. Extreme weather
for Environmental Information found that
torical observations and model simulations denies the impact of climate change and can also shift infectious disease patterns
storms are moving more slowly than they
to produce the 17 peer-reviewed analyses promised to increase the burning of coal and compromise food security, safe drink-
did forty years ago, and that means they’re
collected in the BAMS special report. and wants to pull Brazil out of the Paris ing water and clean air, according to The
246
Extreme Weather Events cont.
Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate to storms—this will mean unhappy custom-
Change, which compiled research from 27 ers as well as hardships for vendors and
academic institutions, the United Nations retailers alike.
and numerous intergovernmental agencies.
Economists estimate that bad weather Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
impacts $3.8 trillion a year in the United National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-
States alone. It can drive up construction istration (NOAA); NASA; Department of
costs and cause flight cancellations. The Energy; Department of Homeland Security;
rise of unpredictable, extreme weather House Armed Services Subcommittee on
will continue to force insurance companies Emerging Threats and Capabilities; Colum-
to recalculate the damage, building models bia University’s Earth Institute; United Na-
to better estimate the impacts. Insurer tions’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Aviva increased its Canadian home-insur- Change; European Geosciences Union;
ance premiums by 6% since 2016, due University of North Carolina at Wilming-
partly to research into catastrophic risks. ton; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
The extreme weather will also impact a Research; National Center for Atmospheric
wide range of sectors, from auto repair Research.
shops, home improvement stores to mak-
ers of sandbags and portable generators. “Firenados” — spinning vor-
Meanwhile, air and road travel, as well texes of wind and flames —
In 2018 and 2019 California residents battled extreme wildfires, brought on by severe drought. as cruises, will see more weather-relat- ravaged parts of the US in
ed delays, diversions and cancellations.
Logistics and delivery companies will need
2018. One firenado topped
to contend with delays and backups due out 17,000 feet above the
earth.
Human Migration
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Climate changes will push School of International and Public Affairs hospitable environments. Which means may not be as bleak if we work now to cut
at Columbia University looking at new that climate change is an issue of national greenhouse gases drastically and plan for
millions of Americans away flows of migrants worldwide, found that security. the socio-economic challenges of migrants,
from their costal homes, people who applied for asylum between improving education, training and jobs.
and we are not ready for 2000 and 2014 were increasingly on the What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! It would be wise for intergovernmental
move due to “weather shocks.” A recent
the impacts of a migration study by the Environmental Justice Foun-
The EJF worked with national security organizations to begin talks about adopt-
experts and retired military leaders to ing official designation—as well as the
at that scale. dation (EJF) says that tens of thousands
model scenarios for the future of climate corresponding protocols necessary—now,
of Bangladeshi families could soon face in preparation for near-future waves of
change and human migration and conclud-
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! becoming climate refugees within their
ed that the number of climate refugees climate refugees.
Climate change is forcing people from their own countries. It’s a problem that could
could dwarf the number that has fled Syria
homes and communities, which can under- soon get worse—a one-meter sea level rise
in recent years. We could see a wave of Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
mine a region’s economic stability. To date, could result in a 20% loss of Bangladesh’s
migration from Africa, the Indian Subcon- Environmental Justice Foundation; United
we don’t have an official designation for current landmass. And it’s not just Bangla-
tinent and from island nations into Europe Nations; UNHCR; Cornell University; Euro-
“climate change refugees,” but that’s likely desh at risk.
and the US. pean Union; Center For Migration Studies.
to change in the near future. A study by researchers at Columbia Uni-
A recent World Bank report also looked
versity, published in the journal Science,
at the problem, projecting climate change
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! showed that climate change could lead to 1
could result in 143 million “climate mi-
Hurricane Maria in 2017 triggered a mas- million climate refugees migrating into the
grants” by 2050, as people escape crop
sive exodus from Puerto Rico, causing one European Union every year by 2100—cre-
failure, water scarcity, and rising sea
of the largest migration events in US his- ating breathtaking changes to our existing
water, and most of them will flee devel-
tory. By December that year, an estimated cities and infrastructure. Throughout the
oping countries in Sub-Saharaha Africa,
215,000 Puerto Ricans fled the island for world, monsoons, droughts and scorch-
Latin America and South Asia. The World
the US mainland. Researchers from the ing heat are driving millions of people
Bank offered a glimmer of hope: the future
away from their homea in search of more
248
TRENDS 210 - 215 Second year on the list
GEOENGINEERING
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!!! 210 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! large swaths of the ocean. Theoretically, it
would stimulate the growth of phytoplank-
To counteract extreme weather and cli- Lots and Lots of Sand
ton, the tiny sea life that absorb carbon
mate change, researchers are looking to Sand is stronger than we once thought. dioxide, release oxygen and are gobbled up
geoengineering—large-scale technological One project from Princeton University by other creatures. This is key, because
and scientific interventions to counteract scientist Michael Wolovick involves building every year, the ocean absorbs about a
the damage we’ve caused to the planet. It massive piles of sand or other materials quarter of the carbon dioxide we emit
probably sounds terrifying—or at the very dumped to the sea floor, to build walls into the atmosphere and that changes the
least, like a plot from a big-budget sci-fi around glaciers—sort of like a scaffolding to chemistry of the oceans and harms marine
movie. Scientists are quietly researching prevent them from collapsing. Farther be- ecosystems.
SCoPEx is a scientific experiment to advance massive geoengineering projects that neath the surface of the ocean is warmer
understanding of stratospheric aerosols that could help stave off sea level rise and sea water. As it moves closer to glaciers, 212 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
could be relevant to solar geoengineering. curtail our planet’s warming tempera- it destabilizes the foundation, causing
tures. Reflecting Sunlight
pieces to break off and melt into the ocean.
Shoring up their foundation could keep Some scientists are working on enormous,
What’s At Stake !!!!!!! glaciers submerged in the icy upper layers mirrored parasols into the stratosphere,
Scientists can run simulations using avail- of water, and—theoretically—prevent them which would reflect sunlight back into
able data, but it’s impossible to predict from melting. It’s not a perfect method for space and theoretically would cool the
the second and third-order implications of all glaciers, but it can help. Earth’s atmosphere over time. In 2019,
geoengineering in advance. Even so, the Harvard University is preparing to launch
fate of the whole planet is at stake. No one 211 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the first ever aerosol injection experiment
country can—or should—take a unliateral known as the Stratospheric Controlled
Oceanic Fertilization
lead on geoengineering. Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx). The
Oceanic iron fertilization involves dumping scientists will use a balloon to inject huge
enormous amounts of iron sulfate into amounts of aerosols, or extremely fine

particles, into the upper atmosphere, mentalists called on the United Nations to pollution by offering them yearlong access comes from chemists at George Washing-
reflecting sunlight. declare the Garbage Patch its own country to $3,000 trawls, or fine-mesh nets that ton University, who are experimenting with
dubbed “The Trash Isles.” A recent report capture plastic floating on the water’s what they dub “diamonds from the sky,” a
213 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! by the British government warned that the surface. Even if scientists are successful name because diamonds are made from
amount of plastic in the ocean could triple in cleaning up the marine garbage pile, carbon. The scientists bathed carbon di-
Manipulating Clouds
by 2050. it will require behavior change among oxide in molten carbonates at 750° C, then
Another effort underway to reflect sun- consumers and businesses. Otherwise, introduced atmospheric air, an electrical
The problem prompted some innovative
light back to space involves manipulating more plastic will continue to pile up in the current of nickel, and steel electrodes. The
approaches to clean up the trash. Last
cloud cover. Scientists at the University world’s oceans. carbon dioxide dissolves and carbon nano-
fall, the Dutch nonprofit Ocean Cleanup
of Washington are working on increas- fibers form on the steel electrode.
launched an ambitious effort to clean up
ing the whiteness and brightness of the 215 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
half of that Garbage Patch within five
clouds by spraying sea water into the
years, using a fleet of 60 autonomous Artificial Trees
clouds of the ocean. The idea is to cause
floating “screens,” or nets that collect
them to expand and get brighter. Swiss CO2 is the undisputed culprit when it
debris as small as a centimeter in diame-
scientists, meanwhile, are developing ways comes to climate change. But what if we
ter, which boats come and collect later. A
to eliminate cirrus clouds — those thin, could just suck it out of the air? Trees do
floater prevents plastic from flowing over
wispy clouds made from ice crystals that that naturally, but after years of defor-
form at high altitude that trap heat in the it, while a skirt stops debris from escaping estation, we simply do not have enough of
underneath. Algorithms pinpoint where to
atmosphere. Other efforts include painting them to make a sizable impact. Scientists
deploy, and real-time telemetry monitors
houses white and laying reflective sheets at Columbia University are developing
the condition, performance and trajectory
in deserts. plastic trees that passively soak up carbon
of each screen. dioxide from the air and store it on a hon-
214 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The system also relies only on the natural eycombed-shaped “leaf” made of sodium
ocean currents for energy; the rest of the carbonate, similar to baking soda. So far
Eating Ocean Trash
electronics are powered by solar energy. these fake trees prove to be a thousand
The notorious pile of trash floating in the Another effort, the Seabin Project, cleans times more efficient at soaking up CO2
Pacific Ocean is bigger than we thought. up oil and trash using floating garbage than real trees. The next challenge will
Last year, researchers found that the cans with pumps and filtration centers be to purify the carbon dioxide or bury it
Great Pacific Garbage Patch is 16 times set up in harbors, marinas and other busy safely beneath the ground or beneath the
larger than original estimates, at least areas. That plastic could have trapped ocean floor. Another approach is to con-
three times the size of France, or a total animals and caused problems if it had been vert atmospheric CO2 into carbon nanofi-
of 617,763 square miles. An estimated ingested. The eco-rings solve that prob- bers that can be used for consumer and
five trillion pieces of plastic float in the lem. The 5 Gyres Institute invites citizen industrial products, including wind turbine
ocean, an amount so large that environ- scientists to contribute data on plastic blades or airplanes. Another approach
250
TRENDS 216 - 218 First year on the list
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!!! 216 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the water, too. Powered by solar energy,
they reduce a watercraft’s weight, cut
Large companies around the world are Smart Boats
down on noise, boost passenger capacity
leading with sustainability as part of their It’s no mystery that the shipping industry and cut emissions.
core values. This isn’t just about rejecting is a huge contributor to climate change due
plastic straws. Many companies, including to its carbon dioxide emissions and a thirst 217 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ingersoll Rand and Chevron, see sustain- for fuel. Shell Oil employs a more novel
ability as a value add for all of their key Smarter Plastics
approach to fuel efficiency: air bubbles. The
stakeholders. Other companies can follow oil company installed a new system on the Plastic has long been the bane of the envi-
suit by developing long-term strategy, vi- hull of a ship developed by London-based ronment, piling up in oceans and landfills.
Eliminating straws within the workplace is one sion and R&D plans to create new business Silverstream Technologies. This design Now we know that, when exposed to the el-
example of corporate sustainability. opportunities, which help shareholders helped the ship move faster and easier ements, plastic releases methane and eth-
while also helping the planet. through the water. The technology relies ylene - two greenhouse gases that worsen
on steel boxes welded to a ship’s hull and climate change, according to new research
air compressors, which together create a by the University of Hawaii. There are ef-
layer of microbubbles between the vessel forts to mitigate plastic’s ills. Last year, re-
and water. The result: 5% to 12% fuel sav- searchers at the University of Portsmouth
ings. Meanwhile, the market for hybrid and accidentally discovered a plastic-eating
electric boats is growing. The world’s first enzyme that could help break down larger
electric barges now chug across ports pieces of plastic and aid in recycling
between Amsterdam and Belgium. The ves- efforts. French biotech company Carbios
sels, made by Dutch company Port Liner, will produce a new generation of plastics
have been dubbed Tesla ships. Eventually, for bottles, packaging and film that include
the hope is that ships will operate autono- enzymes that trigger biodegration after
mously. Hybrid boats are making waves on use. Recycling Technologies based in the

UK hopes to turn traditionally unrecyclable and cup made from a superhydrophobic
plastics into “plaxx,” or virgin plastic, wax coating that rejects dirt. The upshot: it
and oils. Meanwhile, corporations are step- never needs washing. Salt Water Brewery
ping up: Origin Materials will make plastic in South Florida designed plastic rings for
bottles from sawdust and cardboard. Evian its six-packs of beer to be biodegradable
promised to use recycled plastic in all its and edible. So rather than turtles getting
water bottles by 2025. Starbucks pledged caught in the plastic rings the material be-
to eliminate plastic straws by 2020. British comes food for them. Berlin-based Infarm
supermarket Morrisons will bring back created a renewable sheet of plastic that
traditional brown paper bags for loose fruit folds to create a self-contained package.
and vegetables, and a number of cities have This “microgarden” uses seaweed-based
banned plastic bags at grocery stores. agar-agar gel to grow micro-greens and
herbs that don’t need water. Tomorrow
218 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Machine has also developed oil packaging
made from caramelized sugar and coated
Intelligent Packaging
wax. Designed for rice, oil and smoothies,
The nacent market for sustainable smart you crack the package like an egg and melt
packaging is on the rise, ranging from it in water. This kind of active and intelligent
everything from moisture-control and packaging used for meat has been shown
temperature sensors incorporated into QR to extend shelf life and cut costs.
codes to antimicrobial and edible packag-
ing— even packaging that eats itself after
it is no longer needed. Researchers at the
University of Minnesota are developing new
kinds of polymers that will self-destruct
or “unzip” when exposed to light, heat or
acid. Stockholm-based Tomorrow Machine
is working on new packaging material that
is edible and self-destructive. The company
is studying self-opening shapes in nature
to develop biodegradable packaging that
will open on their own when exposed to
high temperatures. Tomorrow Machine and
Innventia developed a self-cleaning plate
252
11
AGRICULTURAL
TECHNOLOGIES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
219 Indoor and Outdoor Plant Factories and Microfarms
220 Deep Learning For Farming and Food Recognition
221 Precision Agriculture
222 Smart Farms
223 Terraforming
224 Bug Protein
225 Cultivated Food and Beverage
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
226 Cannabis Delivery Logistics
227 Cannabis Compliance Systems
228 Scaling Cannabis Infusion Techniques
229 Specialized CRM Platforms
230 Helping Dispensaries at the Bank
Indoor and Outdoor

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Microfarms
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! housed in skyscrapers in urban centers. and robots to handle the plants and has
With no soil and no sun, these factories said it expects to produce between 20,000
With extreme weather hampering tra- promise 365-day seasons and no threat and 30,000 heads of lettuce per day. Often
ditional agriculture, new kinds of indoor of droughts, freezes or infestations. They it may take only 40 days for plants to
and microfarms are endeavoring to grow can cultivate lettuce, spinach, basil, garlic mature before they’re shipped to nearby
produce and grains that can be grown in and snow peas in the middle of cities — and supermarkets in Japan. Plants are thriv-
spite of climate change. often deliver 10 to 20 times the yield of ing elsewhere in the world too. In London,
conventional farms. All this, using robots, a startup called Growing Underground
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! sensors, artificial intelligence, LED lights raises pea shoots, red basil, garlic and
Overpopulation means the world must feed and hydroponic grow systems. chives on “cardboard carpets” using 77%
New plant factories require fewer resources. an estimated 9 billion people in 2050. If Japan leads the world when it comes to less water than conventional agriculture
you’re a human who eats food, you should this new high-tech farming with 200 plant because the water is recycled. The crops
care deeply about the global food supply. factories — more than any other nation. can be harvested and shipped in just five to
Our global weather patterns and climates The government subsidized many of these 10 days. That kind of efficiency will allow
are in flux. It’s plausible that the world’s Underground to double their operations
If you’re a human who operations, and they thrive thanks to Jap-
next year, all inside their city’s network of
agricultural centers today won’t be capa- anese consumer demand for fresh, local,
eats food, you should care ble of sustaining commercial farms in the pesticide-free food. underground tunnels.
deeply about the global food near future. Today’s agriculture system
Take, for instance, the Kansai Science City
alone won’t work. We must rethink how What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
supply. we grow and consume food, and plant
microfarm. Much of the work there is au-
Startup Iron Ox has built a fully autono-
tomated: raising seedlings, replanting, wa-
factories mark a huge technological leap mous, hydroponic indoor farm in California
tering, adjusting the light and harvesting
forward. that uses two robots to plant, maintain
is all done using artificial intelligence and
The future of farming will be microfarms, collaborative robots. In Kameoka, Koto, a and harvest produce. Those two bots can
housed underground in office buildings and company called Spread also uses machines do the equivalent of 30 acres of outdoor
on neighborhood blocks and vertical farms

farming in just one indoor, automated
acre. Bowery and Plenty are two start- Near Future Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ups building indoor microfarms in or near
urban settings. In Boston, researchers
at the Massachusetts Institute of Tech- Growhouse-to-Table is the New Farm-to-Table
nology now crunch data to come up with
“plant recipes” that can improve indoor We think AgTech and new tiny farms will allow restaurants, schools and companies to
food production even more. Using com- grow their own produce, while achieving significant cost savings. In 2019, restaurants
plex algorithms and sensors attached to
plants growing in hydroponic systems,
will have access to compact, self-sustaining indoor vegetable gardens that are small
the researchers track everything from enough to fit within the existing space of a commercial kitchen. Special lights help reduce
carbon dioxide and temperature to water the growing time necessary for plants to reach maturity. In the very near future, similar
and plant tissue health to analyze the best technology, along with subscription seedling services, will become affordable enough for
conditions and systems for growing the
average US homes.
most nutritious, tasty foods possible.
A future dotted with high-tech local mi- Big box retailers will find a renewed purpose as hyperlocal food centers. Cities will clean
crofarms could upend the status quo for up abandoned lots, repurposing them as neighborhood farms. And, in an age of wide-
supply chains built around conventional spread automation and technological unemployment, AgTech ushers in a new era of high-
agriculture and supermarkets. The shift tech farming, and as a result, there is a demand spike for agricultural technicians, AgTech
will impact everyone from merchants and
importers to truck drivers and UPC code
maintenance workers, roboticists, bio-data scientists, irrigation designers, grow light
sticker providers. That’s why planning for engineers and more.
this plant future is vital to ensure that
Looking even broader, AgTech will mean huge opportunities for businesses and organiza-
their plant factories arrive with opportu-
nity rather than civil and economic unrest. tions who prepare in advance. For example, CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing technology could
But the upside could be worth it: environ- be used to develop breeds of tomatoes, beans, kale, blueberries, quinoa, spinach and
mentally-friendly farming, higher yields broccoli that can be grown inside of a neighborhood convenience store—or inside of a sub-
and better access to fresh, nutritious food urban retailer like Wal-Mart. Growing and selling directly to consumers could bring fresh,
in urban and rural communities.
inexpensive produce to food deserts year-round. Adjacent industries would likely benefit
Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! (spice makers like McCormick & Co., appliance manufacturers like Samsung). It could also
Japan Plant Factory Association; Japanese mean new competition from unusual sources: US-based Amazon acquired natural grocery
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; store chain Whole Foods in 2017. It’s plausible that by 2027, Whole Foods will be neighbor-
Iwatani Agrigreen; National Federation hood microfarms that grow and sell all the produce we need, especially as gene editing
of Agricultural Cooperative Association techniques make their way from the fringe to the mainstream and as robotics and artificial
(Japan); Mistubishi; Chiba University; Aero-
Farms. Bright Farms; Detroit Dirt; Fujitsu;
intelligence continue to improve.
Grove Labs; Tomiyama Corporation; Mon-
santo; Sungenta; Bayer AG; DowDuPont;
– Future Today Institute Research Team
BASF; Del Monte; Komatsu; Claas; John
Deere; AGCO.
256
Deep Learning For

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Farming and Food REVISIT
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Recognition
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! ing automated picking systems that scan also lets chefs and at-home cooks deter-
and “read” produce to determine when it’s mine which foods taste best together,
Deep learning is being used to help identify ripe. SomaDetect lets dairy farms monitor select complimentary ingredients and offer
food for a number of reasons: to help com- milk quality using optical sensors and ma- food suggestions for various tastes.
puters have more robust conversations chine learning. Blue River Technology uses
with us about what we’re eating, to calcu- deep learning to automatically detect and What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
late the number of calories in a dish, and spray weeds.
to spot spoiled or tainted food. Artificial This technique can be used to find and sort
intelligence and deep learning are helping Deep learning will also impact consumers, problem products on food assembly lines,
food manufacturers and farmers deter- allowing us to learn what’s in the food and it can help growers better identify crop
mine nutritional deficiency, detect disease we eat—and even where it came from. disease. Deep learning for food recognition
Researchers are testing robotic harvesting and even learn more about where our food Computer models will be able to calculate could soon mean a number of opportunities
systems that use image recognition. comes from. the nutritional value of your meal before for agricultural companies, farmers, food
you take your first bite. Researchers at manufacturers, restaurants, chefs, and
the University of Massachusetts are using health-minded consumers.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
deep learning for computer-assisted
Plantix, a cloud-based AI system, lets dietary assessments, while scientists at Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
farmers identify pests and disease in their Microsoft have already incorporated their
crops, just by uploading photos of suspi- Abundant Rotobics; Plantix; FFRobotics;
deep learning prototypes for recognizing
cious plants. The system will cross-refer- Blue River Technology; John Deere Labs;
popular Asian and Western foods into
ence across a database of various species Microsoft; Prospera; IBM; Alphabet (Goo-
Bing local search engine. At the MIT Media
using image recognition, and within a gle); dishq; University of Massachusetts;
Lab, students are working on an organic
couple minutes, offer suggestions of po- Apple; Carnegie Mellon; MIT Media Lab;
barcode that’s invisible to us, but could be
tential problems. Perhaps it’s not getting University of Tokyo; Penn State Universi-
read by machines—it could be used to help
enough water or needs a micronutrient. ty; University of Maryland; PlantJammer;
consumers more easily trace produce as it
California startup Abundant Robotics and Foodpairing; FlavorWiki; PlantVillage;
moves around the world. Machine learning
Israeli-based FFRobotics are both develop- Gastrograph.

Precision Agriculture
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Using sensors, algorithms and optimization A variety of technologies are used in this South Dakota State University has invest-
analytics, farmers are now able to quantify new farm management approach, included $46 million in a new facility to study
the progress of every single crop — down ing GPS, sensors, collaborative robotics, the future of precision agriculture, and
to a single cherry tomato hanging on a autonomous vehicles, autonomous soil classes in the field will begin 2021. Drones
particular vine. sampling, telematics, and lots of machine equipped with smart cameras, data mining
learning. Vestiges of precision agriculture to understand crop ripeness and blossom-
have been around since farmers started ing, and new analytics dashboards to help
using GPS alongside their tractors, but ad- farmers make smarter decisions are all on
vancements in robotics, data collection and the near future horizon.
insights have meant new opportunities. Farmers will be able to quantify the progress of
Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! individual crops.
Farmers Edge; CropMetrics; Blue River

Technology; Syngenta; Honeywell; DuPont;
Amazon; Arable; Bosch; Descartes Labs;
Planet Labs; Farmers Business Network;
Google; Amazon; SAP; Semios; Sentera;
Smart Ag; TerrAvion.
258
Smart Farms
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
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In order for traditional agriculture to meet Larger farms, meanwhile, are testing UN Food and Agriculture Organization;
the global demand for food, researchers out new technologies that harness data, USDA; Tyson Foods; Alico Incorporated;
are trying to make farming look more like sensors, machine learning and automa- Agria Corporation; Adler Seeds; Ameri-
modern manufacturing. tion. For example, moisture sensors can can Vanguard; Monsanto; Dow Chemical
continuously monitor the moisture level Company; University of Maryland; Purdue
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! of soil and communicate with an irrigation University; Iowa Farm Bureau; OpenAg
system to increase the water supply. Gene Initiative at MIT; DNV GL; Cargill; Alltech;
The agriculture industry is abuzz over
editing of seeds can allow them to flourish, Bernard Matthews Farms; BASF; AVE-
projections that by 2050, we must in-
even in unpredictable weather conditions BE; Archer Daniels Midland; Marrone Bio
New and emerging technologies will power crease agriculture production by 70% to
— a common occurrence. Tech can match Innovations; Syngenta; Honeywell; DuPont;
farms. meet projected demand. Current farming
seeds to specific soil types, to generate an AgTech Insight; Verizon; Silicon Valley
methods won’t cut it. That shortfall has
optimal crop of vegetables. Advancements AgTech; Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers;
spawned a new generation of AgTech
in agricultural drones will, in the near-fu- Agfunder.
startups—nearly a dozen Agtech accelera-
ture, assist with planting, harvesting and
tors popped up since 2013. Yet small farm-
pest control.
ers are slow to adopt new technologies. If
it doesn’t work, it can kill an entire harvest
and a year’s income. Current farmer tech
needs aren’t flashy yet. They want tech to
digitize their field notes, valves, monitor
irrigation systems, and apps that track
people and equipment, show histories of
pest problems, spot irrigation leaks, and
monitor water wells.

Terraforming
INFORMS ACT
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! we would also need powerful rockets that
can power spacecraft to transport those
Terraforming—literally, “Earth shaping”—is The challenge to terraforming Mars will robots to space so that they can break
a concept from science fiction. People be to increase the atmospheric pressure ground.
reform another planet to make it resemble of the planet, which is 1% less than Earth.
Earth, so that it can support human life. The Martian polar caps, minerals and soil Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
could provide sources of carbon dioxide
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! and water to thicken the atmosphere. NASA; SpaceX. NASA is studying terraforming on surfaces far
Unfortunately, those sources available on away from Earth.
The average temperature on Mars is -67
Mars would only increase the pressure Photo courtesy: NASA.
°F, which might have seemed like an obsta-
to about 7%, which is short of what is
cle before the winter of 2017 when Mount
needed, so terraforming is not possible
Washington, New Hampshire recorded a
with today’s technology, according to 2019
wind chill of -90 °F. (Sci-fi, meet reality.)
research paper published in Nature by the
Some people believe that human life will
University of Colorado.
be unsustainable on earth in the far-fu-
ture, and that humans will need to colonize Another key to teraforming might be in
another planet in order to survive. In Sep- our current microbes, which are capable
tember 2016, Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, of surviving harsh environments like the
delivered his plan to both get us to Mars Atacama Desert. Of course, we might even
and to terraform it once we arrive. It will invent entirely new forms of life using
be several years before humans pack up synthetic biology. In order to advance
and move to space—but NASA has already terraforming from theory to reality, we’ll
moved ahead on several projects to study need a host of new robots capable of being
terraforming the Moon. trained to mine for resources and build an
ecosystem that can sustain human life. And
260
Bug Protein
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! companies, Aspire, acquired competitor Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

EXO Bar, which made protein bars. Mean-
In 2019, you’ll find edible insects on the Entosense; Bugeater; Chirp Chips; Chapul;
while, billionaire Mark Cuban even invested
menu, in protein bars, and in heart-healthy Linger; Aspire; U.S. Department of Agricul-
in bar maker Chapul, after its founder
pastas. ture; North American Coalition for Insect
extolled the nutrition and virtues of bug-
Agriculture; Food and Drug Administration.
based food on the TV show Shark Tank.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
There’s an environmental argument to eat- What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
ing crickets rather than chickens: raising
Previously, cultivating insects had been
and consuming insects produces signifi-
limited to a small, experimental group of
cantly less greenhouse gasses, doesn’t
Exo sells protein bars made of crickets. startups. With increased funding and more
require extensive land and water, and does
mainstream interest, we should see bug
less long-term damage to the planet. They
proteins beginning to take off in 2019. The
are good sources of protein, fatty acids
Department of Agriculture has awarded
and fiber and have been an important part
$1.45 million in research grants in the past
of the diet in cultures around the world.
few years. The North American Coalition
Denver restaurant Linger serves up a dish
for Insect Agriculture (NACIA) says the
with black ants, chopped grasshoppers
market could top $1 billion by 2023.
and crickets to willing diners. And cricket
food startups have started flourishing.
Chirp Chips and Bitty Foods make crick-
et-based protein bars, brownies, chips and
smoothie powders. One of the cricket food

Cultivated Food
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
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and Beverage REVISIT
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Administration approved the plant-based materials. New Wave Foods is serving up their products “bacon” and “sausage.”
meat from Impossible Burger, which uses algae-based shrimp, while Finless Foods Still, in the future, you might buy meat at a
Say goodbye to tofu imitations of tradi- genetically-modified yeast. The hamburg- makes fish flesh. local microbrewery, which instead of beer,
tional meats. Meats and beverages are er patties have an eerily-similar look to brews meat. Or, for that matter, you might
being grown in labs. The projected global beef — including the “blood,” a hemeprotein What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! print your hamburger at home.
food shortage and concerns about climate from soy roots — and they are now served
change, the environment and social justice The clean meat movement is heading to-
in thousands of US restaurants. Consum- wards acellular agriculture, which doesn’t Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
(activists complained shrimp is harvested ers report that they really can’t tell the
by slave labor) have driven demand for a require starter cells extracted from Clara Foods; SuperMeat; Finless Foods;
difference between real beef and Impossi-
new era of cultivated food and beverage. muscle biopsies. Instead it brews meat Memphis Meats; Impossible Burger; Future
ble Burgers. Another VC-backed company,
At its most dire, there is a looming food from microbes. This will allow researchers Meat; Just; Perfect Day; New Wave Foods;
JUST (formerly Hampton Creek) scaled
security issue and a shortage of arable to someday soon cultivate milk, chicken Michigan State University; Memphis Meats;
back its ambitious lineup following an SEC
land if we continue traditional meat pro- and eggs. It will be many years before Beyond Meat; Aleph Farms; University of
investigation and board exodus and now
duction. producers are able to scale production to Maastricht; EU; FDA; the governments of
plans to roll out a line of plant-based mayo, meet our demand, and there is no guaran- China, Israel, the US, Japan and EU, the
dressings, cookies, cookie dough, break-
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! tee everyone will adopt the meatless meal. Food Research Institute of Norway; Good
fast proteins, and cultured meats. Clara Just one-third of 2,100 Americans polled Food Institute; PETA; Meatable; University
In 2013, the University of Maastricht Foods is serving up creamy lab-grown last year by Michigan State University said of Amsterdam; Oxford University.
introduced the world to the first lab-grown eggs, fish that never swam in water and
they would be likely to buy food that looks
hamburger patty, and it cost $330,000 to cows milk brewed from yeast. Perfect Day and tastes identical to meat. Last year, the
create. Since then, a number of startups will focus on yogurt, cheese and ice cream US beef industry took aim at the nascent
have been working on various techniques – sans the cows and instead inside a lab. industry, filing a petition to bar non-animal
to culture—rather than harvest—meat that Memphis Meats, Beyond Meat and Aleph products from the definition of meat. A
has the same chemical structure as what Farms are working on lab-grown chicken French politician also passed a law that
would have otherwise come from an ani- and beef, using pea protein and other plant bans vegetarian companies from calling
mal. This past summer, the Food and Drug
262
TRENDS 226 - 230 First year on the list
CANNABIS
INFORMS ACT
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STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
TECHNOLOGIES REVISIT
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WATCH
With Cannabis now legal in Canada, many keep track of compliance. New AI-powered 229 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
US states, and increasingly in other cities platforms are helping dispensaries meet
Specialized CRM Platforms
and countries around the world, there compliance regulations.
are many new technologies and areas of Unlike traditional CRM or customer data-
scientific research to track. Here are five 228 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! bases, marketers in the cannabis space
worth watching: have additional regulations to contend with.
Scaling Cannabis Infusion Techniques
Baker is an automation platform catering
226 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! One of the new business verticals within to dispensaries.
the industry is cannabis you can drink. As
Cannabis Delivery Logistics restrictions on recreational marijuana use 230 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cannabis use is finding wider acceptance in Local dispensaries are supporting start- are loosened, we will start to see big com-
Helping Dispensaries at the Bank
many countries around the world. ups that can take orders, authenticate mercial beverage companies launching new
users, and ensure safe and legal delivery sparkling waters and non-alcoholic drinks One big hurdle for dispensaries and their
to consumers. Eaze and GreenRush are infused with CBD, the nonpsychoactive parent companies in the US is banking. It’s
the biggest players in medical marijuana part of marijuana capable of reducing pain still illegal at the federal level for marijuana
delivery. without getting you high. But there is plenty to be sold, so banks can’t accept cash from
of research into cannabis-infused alcoholic dispensaries. MoneyTrac Technology is a
227 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! beverages, teas to help you relax and to blockchain startup with its own cryptocur-
sleep, and sports drinks to help athletes rency. The hope is that customers would
Cannabis Compliance Systems
recover faster post-workout. Constellation pay at a kiosk using cryptocurrency rather
With the industry heavily regulated, it can Brands, which makes Corona beer, as well than cash.
be difficult for dispensary companies with as Lagunitas (a subsidiary of Heineken) are
business units located in different states to investing in new techniques.

264
12
BIOTECHNOLOGIES,
GENOMIC EDITING
AND BIOINTERFACES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
231 IVF Genetic Screening
232 Biological DVRs
233 Human DNA-Powered Devices
234 Using Our DNA As Hard Drives
235 Nanobot Nurses
236 Dissolving Bioelectronics
237 Microbe-Engineering as a Service
238 Precision Medicine Begins to Scale
239 Running Out Of Space For Genome Storage
240 Genome Editing Research Clashes With Policy and Public Opinion
241 Artificial Cells
242 Nootropics and Neuroenhancers
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
243 Microbiome Extinction
244 Building A Comprehensive Human Cell Atlas
TRENDS 231 - 242 Seventh YEAR ON THE LIST
GENOME EDITING
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
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LATER
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!!! disease. There are therapeutic possibilities conjunction with IVF, they had purportedly
in human medicine as well. Editing our ge- eliminated the CCR5 gene in a pair of twin
Genome editing is a quickly-developing, netic code could mean eradicating certain girls. That modification, they hoped, would
game-changing field promising to in- genetic diseases—like cystic fibrosis—so make the twins resistant to HIV, smallpox
fluence the future of life on our planet. they can’t be passed along to babies. Liver and cholera throughout their lives. If true,
Mapping the human genome has been cells could be edited so that they lower the this would be the first instance of genet-
a long and difficult process. Recently, bad cholesterol levels in families that have ically modified humans – and we haven’t
sequencing technology has become more inherited mutations. World-renowned ge- yet developed global norms and standards
accessible and affordable to research neticist George Church and his team used governing humanity’s position on enhanced
labs, which would enable them to work CRISPR to modify pig organs, making them humans.
Gene-editing chemicals being injected into a towards personalized medical treatments safe to be used for human liver, kidney,
for vexing diseases like cancer. However China isn’t alone in researching
human egg at the moment of fertilization. Scien- heart and lung transplants. methods to use CRISPR to modify humans.
tists used the technique to correct DNA errors
In 2015, Chinese researchers edited the Around the same time that we learned of
present in the father’s sperm. context !!!!!!!!!!!!
genes of a human embryo – it was done in the possibility that genetically enhanced
Nine years ago researchers unveiled a a petri dish, but scientists quickly sounded twins had been born in China, Harvard Uni-
gene editing technique called CRISPR-Cas9, the alarm, because it wasn’t difficult to versity moved ahead with a plan to begin
Biology is one of which allows scientists to edit precise see how CRISPR could be used to modify gene-editing sperm. The school’s Stem Cell
positions on DNA using a bacterial enzyme. embryos during the in vitro fertilization Institute started using CRISPR to modify
the most important New technologies make CRISPR gene edit- process. There has been plenty of exper- sperm cells so that they could not pass on
ing more affordable. The implications are imentation on human embryos in China the genes responsible for Alzheimer’s dis-
technology platforms tremendous. Mosquitoes carrying malaria since then, and late in 2018 we learned ease. The first known attempt to create a
could be edited so that they no longer about a team of researchers at the South- genetically-modified human embryo within
of the 21st century. carry the disease through future gener- ern University of Science and Technology in the United States happened back in 2017
ations, and so that millions of humans in in Shenzhen who not only used CRISPR in at the Oregon Health and Science Univer-
high-risk regions no longer suffer from the

Future Scenarios !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Opportunities and Risks

sity. Researchers successfully corrected Types of Genome Editing ! ! !
a genetic mutation causing a deadly heart
CRISPR-Cas9 Very Near-Term: Pest Control vs Ecological Weaponization
condition.
What it stands for: Clustered Regularly
Meantime, researchers at Stanford Uni- Genome editing can be used in mosquitos, which carry malaria—that
Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat or
versity have found that some people could
CRISPR. Cas9 is an endonuclease used in disease kills millions of people worldwide each year. The technique al-
be immune to part of the CRISPR process. ters a section of the DNA, making it impossible for future generations
RNS-guided gene-editing platform—it’s a
One of the primary tools used, Cas9, is
bacterial process. to spread malaria to humans. However, some security experts warn
created typically using the same bacte-
ria that cases strep throat. Some people ZFN that the same process could be used in reverse—to rapidly spread a
have immune systems that are capable What it stands for: Zinc Finger Nucleases.
biological weapon that could be impossible to stop.
of naturally fending off infections, and They’re engineered DNA binding proteins
this research calls into question whether that can introduce a break at a designated 10 – 15 Years Away: Longer Lifespans vs Overpopulation
the CRISPR technique could be effective location. Some argue that genome editing could be used to give humans longer
across all—or just part—of the human
rAAV lifespans and to lower mortality rates—which would result in a dev-
population.
What it stands for: Recombinant Ade- astating strain on our global supply of food and greater environmen-
There are a number of next-gen biotech
no-Associated Virus. It allows research- tal degradation. On the other hand, genome editing is also being re-
companies now working to better under-
ers to precisely target and edit any cell. searched to create heartier plants and double-muscled livestock for
stand the practical applications of CRISPR
Scientists are now working on a hybrid human consumption.
in augmenting humans, including Direct
CRISPR-rAAV biological editing platform.
Genomics, CRISPR Therapeutics, Horizon
Discovery Group, Editas Medicine, Preci- 20 Years Away: Healthier Babies vs Modification for the Wealthy
sion BioSciences and Intellia Therapeutics.
Language Matters ! ! ! ! ! !
! Gene-edited and GMO: gene-edit-
Genomic editing will help eradicate heritable diseases—like cystic fi-
This year, we will see a number of compa- brosis, Tay-Sachs disease, Huntington disease, Leigh Syndrome—from
ed means that an organism’s native
nies further develop biological technolo-
genome has been edited, while “genet- the population. The same techniques could be used additively, tweaking
gies. However, this is another example of
an emerging technology that’s developing
ically modified organism” (GMO) means our musculoskeletal composition and I.Q. Very wealthy parents might
that foreign DNA sequences have been be offered options to edit and enhance their future children. This will
faster than our ability to have meaningful
introduced into an organism.
conversations for the future. Genome create a new divide, between modified humans and non-modified hu-
editing warrants meaningful planning, ! Gene drive: this is the practice of mans. The best jobs and opportunities will be held for modified humans
as it could alter life for millions of people pushing the inheritance of desired resulting in a new technological caste system.
around the world. genes through generations in order to
permanently alter the entire population
of an organism.
– AMY WEBB
268
TRENDS 231 - 242 Sixth year on the list
Genome Editing cont.

231 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! a cellular level, maybe we can reverse it. ranging from 29KB to 44MB – to synthetic
DNA. To date, scientists have stored a $50
IVF Genetic Screening
233 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazon gift card, an operating system
New genetic screening techniques to test and a film (L’arrivée d’un train en gare
Human DNA-Powered Devices
embryos before implantation are mak- de La Ciotat, a short black-and-white
ing their way into fertility centers. Menlo It’s relatively easy to design and fabricate French film made in 1896) on human DNA.
Park-based MyOme and New Jersey-based a new product using computer-assisted Researchers at Columbia University and
Genomic Prediction are now using the design software and a 3D printer. Some the New York Genome Center think that
genetic sequences of parents and cells are hoping that in the near-future, it’ll DNA could potentially be used in advanced
retrieved during a biopsy in order to be just as simple to design and build new computer systems. They’re not alone. The
generate an embryo’s entire genome. Next, medicines and therapeutic treatments at US Defense Advanced Research Projects
they use algorithms to calculate the prob- a molecular scale. Researchers are now Agency (DARPA) announced its own DNA
abilities of certain ailments. Couples can working on building programmable devices storage project in 2017. It seems like a
then select the embryos they like, based out of our DNA, RNA and proteins. These weird branch of biological science, but
on those results. While both companies are molecular programs would allow doctors there are practical reasons for human
disease focused for now, it is also possible to “talk” to our cells in order to diagnose computing: DNA could solve our future data
to calculate scores and optimize for other complex diseases, or to test new treat- storage problems. It’s durable, too: evolu-
genetic traits like height and intelligence. ments. Asimov, an MIT startup, is devel- tionary scientists routinely study DNA that
oping a set of biological tools that would is thousands of years old to learn more
232 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! allow you to build a sort of biological circuit about our human ancestors.
Nanobots will deliver targeted therapies to
board. A team at Harvard University’s
patients. Biological DVRs
Wyss Institute is researching this fantas- 235 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DNA is where we store all of our informa- tical-sounding technology for its practical
tion, but the problem is that sometimes we uses, like curing cancer. Nanobot Nurses
humans have temporarily-varying bio- Tiny robots capable of delivering medicine
logical signals. Researchers at Columbia 234 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! to only a specific area of the body, or as-
University have discovered that it might be sisting with micro-surgery, are here. Late
Using Our DNA As Hard Drives
possible to record and store information in 2018, scientists at the Chinese Univer-
about cells as they age. The technique—a In 2018, scientists from Microsoft Re- sity of Hong Kong unveiled a new way to
sort of biological DVR—can be recorded search and the University of Washington use nanobots within the body. Millions of
by the CRISPR-Cas system over a peri- achieved a new milestone: they figured tiny, magnetic shape-shifting nanoparticles
od of days. In the future, this could allow out how to create random access on DNA can extend, merge and collaborate in a
researchers to very closely study how, at scale. They encoded 200 megabytes of swarm. In practical terms, this means that
exactly, we age. If we can quantify aging at data – 35 video, image, audio and text files a surgeon could direct the swarm to assist

with eye surgeries and to deliver targeted tion—but they typically don’t have enough 238 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
medicines. Caltech scientists developed time in the surgical room to provide that
Precision Medicine Begins to Scale
an autonomous, molecular robot, made restorative therapy beyond what would be
of a single strand of DNA, that treats the minimally required. The team demonstrat- This is a new approach to personalized
inside of the human body like a distribution ed that dissolving electrodes could be used treatment and prevention, allowing doc-
warehouse. The nanobot can walk around, to wirelessly transmit the electrical signal tors to design a treatment strategy using
pick up molecules, and deposit them in and stimulate repaired nerves for sever- our own genes as guides. In the future,
designated locations. Scientists have been al days, which could cut recovery time in there would no longer be a single medi-
working on nanobot technology for the half. Once the therapy was finished, the cation for all, but rather an individualized
past decade. Researchers at the Universi- materials broke down and were excreted. treatment for each one of us individual-
ty of California San Diego proved in 2015 The study was done in rats, but it shouldn’t ly. The market for precision medicine is
that a nanobot, propelled by gas bubbles, be long before we start to see clinical enormous, attracting new partnerships
successfully delivered medicine inside of a applications in humans. between corporate behemoths. In January
live mouse without causing injury. The hope 2018, GE Healthcare and pharma-giant
is that someday soon, nanobots will re- 237 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Roche announced a joint venture to co-de-
place one-size-fits-most medications and velop precision medicine products for
Microbe-Engineering as a Service
therapies, treating our specific ailments cancer and critical care. But there is a bias
without causing side effects. Synthetic biology is an emerging field problem lurking: 80% of the participants in
that builds new life: replacement organs genetics studies are of European descent.
236 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and soft tissue, as well as entirely new Precision medicine depends on extensive
Geneticist George Church and his team used
kinds of organisms never before seen data, research and testing. Former Pres-
Dissolving Bioelectronics CRISPR to modify pig organs.
on Earth. Bay Area-based Zymergen is ident Barack Obama worked to close the
For many people, implanted electronics developing original microbes for making gap with the All of Us program, which aims
are required to live a healthy life, but the specialty polymers, which have applica- at gathering data from one million diverse
machines require surgery, can be costly, tions in military equipment and electric Americans to help accelerate precision
and devices sometimes need replacement vehicles. In 2018, it raised $400 million in medicine advancements.
parts. In 2018, scientists at Northwest- its third round of funding from SoftBank
ern University revealed new research on Vision Fund, Goldman Sachs, Korea-based 239 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
flexible, dissolvable electronic materials. In Hanwha Asset Management and others.
Running Out Of Space For Genome Storage
one case, they showed how the materials Synthetic biologists at Ginkgo Bioworks
could be used during surgery. If nerves build custom-crafted microbes for their One of the fastest-growing datasets in
have been severed, doctors suture them customers, which have included designer the world is made up of our human genetic
back together and reawaken them using bacteria enabling crops to fertilize them- data. By 2025, researchers at the Univer-
electrodes and a gentle electrical stimula- selves. sity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign esti-
270
TRENDS 231 - 242 Sixth year on the list
Genome Editing cont.

mate that we may be out of data storage for experiments, which has disrupted for synthetic biologists who are working to help manage stress and improve athletic
space for human genomes. As precision advancements in numerous studies. It also on precision medicine techniques. performance. The Emotiv Epoc+ and Emo-
medicine, CRISPR and gene therapy tech- cut off funding for university studies using tiv Insight and mobile EEG devices monitor
nologies continue to advance and improve, fetal tissue, which is allowed under US law. 242 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! your brain activity and analyzes cognitive
our storage needs will explode along with In the US, UK and Europe, CRISPR trials are performance. Doppel, which is worn on
Nootropics and Neuroenhancers
the computing power and requirements now underway. The United States does not the wrist, uses electric pulses to augment
for acquiring, distributing, analyzing, In the next few years, a number of drugs your energy. The pulsations, which you
have a national biology, bioethics, or bio-
encrypting and safeguarding our genomics (also called “nootropics”) and devices, dial in based on your needs, are supposed
tech plan, one that can withstand political
data. As technology becomes increasingly intended to enhance our cognitive ability to have a similar effect on your brain as
pressure and our unrelenting election cy-
intertwined with biology, we’re realizing and manage stress, will be made available music does. The Thync Kit is a series of
cle. And we still have no global norms or a
that we didn’t plan ahead for adequate to the public. electrodes and a triangular device that
global agreement detailing how we should
storage capacity, and that we didn’t create experiment with and use emerging biolog- Nootropics are dietary supplements that you stick on to your head—and a mobile app
good technology workflows for storing all ical technologies, especially those which have been shown to improve cognitive synching you to your smartphone. It deliv-
that data. Australia’s Garvan Institute of might permanently augment humanity. As function—even if they’re not officially ers low-grade electric pulses to influence
Medical Research is looking into different the results of new trials are published, regulated or approved by the FDA. You may either your sympathetic (fight or flight) or
processes and workflow to reduce the we expect more public outcry like we saw already be taking a few: caffeine, red reishi your parasympathetic (rest and digest)
genomic data footprint going forward. during December 2018, which could lead mushrooms, ginseng, turmeric, ginkgo bi- nervous system.
to the spread of misinformation, eventual loba and Bulletproof coffee are all popular Meanwhile in China: the military and some
240 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! calls for regulation and the stifling of re- foods, while supplements like Creatine, businesses are using connected head-
Genome Editing Research Clashes With search and funding. There’s precedent for Adrafinil, Noopept and Bacopa monnieri bands and hats to monitor employee
Policy and Public Opinion our forecast: Remember Dolly the sheep? are all being marketed to help promote brain activity. This emotional surveillance
mental clarity, focus attention and retain technology is said to optimize productiv-
In 2018 we learned about a team of information. By some analyst estimates,
researchers at the Southern University 241 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ity—State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power,
the nootropic market could reach $11 based in Jangzhou, reportedly said that
of Science and Technology in Shenzhen Artificial Cells billion in America alone by 2024. its profits spiked $315 million since using
who not only used CRISPR in conjunction Researchers had already developed arti- Neuroenhancer devices are intended to neuroenhancer devices and software to
with IVF, they had purportedly eliminated ficial cells that come very close to the real record brain waves and send feedback. mine, refine and analyze employee brain
the CCR5 gene in a pair of twin girls. At thing. But last year, scientists at the Uni- Some promise to help you become more data.
that same time, Harvard University moved versity of California – San Diego discov-
ahead with a plan to begin gene-editing productive, while others are meant to
ered a technique that creates cells capable boost your mood. Australia-based Smart-
sperm. Taking an order from the Trump of sending protein signals to other cells
Administration, the National Institutes of Cap is a tracking system that uses voice
and triggering behavior, mimicking what warnings and vibrations to keep you alert
Health had to stop acquiring legally-ob- biological cells do on their own. Artificial
tained fetal tissue from elective abortions while on the job. Canadian startup InteraX-
cells will soon offer practical applications on’s Muse headband uses neurofeedback

Microbiome Extinction
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Worse, widespread use of antibiotics in co-based startup uBiome has launched
farm animals – not to prevent disease, several at-home microbiome tests (though
We may all be guilty of causing a mass necessarily, but to increase weight gain you still need a subscription to take one).
genocide, which is happening right now, and therefore the volume of meat available The American Gut Project, the American
in our guts and in the environment. The – means that we’re ingesting compounds Gastroenterological Association and
widespread use of antibiotics, along with that are helping to destroy our own micro- OpenBiome will track 4,000 patients over
diets rich in processed foods, have led to biomes. 10 years to learn about fecal microbiota.
a staggering decline of microorganisms in Investors have poured more than a billion
wealthy nations. What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! dollars into microbiome startups since
2016. It’s a field that’s also attracting tal-
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! We humans are complex, composite or-
ent: last year, IBM Watson’s former head
ganisms, made up of layers and layers of Researchers now think that we’re causing
During the past 12,000 years of human of AI research Guruduth Banavar left to
cells. Researchers now think that our gut the extinction of a large potion of the human
evolution, we’ve shifted nature’s balance— join startup Viome as its chief technology
microbiome is directly linked to everything: microbiome.
our diets are relatively narrow, compared officer.
our metabolism, immune system, central
to our far-distant ancestors. Recently, nervous system, and even the cognitive
scientists studied modern hunter-gatherer functions inside our brains. It’s an in- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
tribes in Tanzania, Peru and Venezuela, herited problem: most of our microbiota Microbiome Center at the University of
whose microbiota have 50% more bacte- are passed from our mothers through Chicago; Stanford University’s Sonnenburg
rial species than people do in the West. the birth canal. There are a number of Lab; Viome; SENS Research Foundation;
Unlike those tribes, we no longer hunt and researchers now looking at the future uBiome; US Food and Drug Administration;
eat wild flora, fauna and animals. Those of our microbiomes. Cambridge, Massa- University of Pennsylvania; the American
from wealthier countries now eat very chusetts-based Vedanta is making gut Gastroenterological Association Center
little dietary fiber, limited variety of fruits bacteria that can be turned into drugs and for Gut Microbiome Research & Education;
and vegetables and only four species of counts the Bill & Melinda Gates Founda- The American Gut Project; OpenBiome;
livestock: sheep, poultry, cattle and pigs. tion as one of its investors. San Francis- Vedanta.
272
Building A Comprehensive
INFORMS ACT
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Researchers are working on the first-ever A large team of scientists—including 130 The team working on the atlas believes
comprehensive map of all of the 37.2 tril- software engineers, mathematicians, com- that they can draw comprehensive refer-
lion cells that make up the human body. putational scientists, biologists, clinicians ence maps for all human cells in the body.
and physicists — hailing from Israel, the A human cell atlas would give the medical
Netherlands, Japan, the UK, the US and community a new way of understanding
The Human Cell Atlas team will create the first Sweden are hard at work mapping the hu- how our bodies work and how to diagnose,
map of all the cells that make up the human man body on a cellular level. Although a cell monitor and treat disease.
body. atlas had long been theorized, new biolog-
ical tools and more power computers have Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
turned this one-time vision into a reality. The organizing committee and academic
institutions of the Human Cell Atlas Con-
sortium.

13
HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES,
DIGITAL SELF-CARE
AND WEARABLES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
245 Digital Addiction
246 Patient-Generated Health Data
247 The Big Nine’s Health Initiatives
248 Interactive Mirrors
109 Natural Language Generation for Reading Levels
249 Touch-Sensitive Prosthetics
110 Computational Photography
250 Smart Thread
111 Computational Journalism
251 Vaping and E-cigarettes
112 I-Teams For Algorithms and Data
252 Smart Glasses
253 Hearables / Earables
254 Head Mounted Displays
255 Connected Clothing
256 Smart Rings and Bracelets
!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
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!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
!!!!
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!!!
257 Smart Belts and Shoes
258 Smart Gloves
259 Smart Helmets
260 Tattooables
261 Thinkables
262 Wireless Body Area Networks
Digital Addiction
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Tech products are designed to be “sticky” South Korea’s national crisis of internet Advocacy groups Common Sense and
or addictive. Recently, it has come to light gaming and gambling addiction used to the Center for Humane Technology are
that using these products in excess can be a fringe case; but in today’s ever-con- lobbying regulators and educators in the
have a negative impact on mental health nected world, digital addiction is a global, United States to create standard policies
and wellbeing. mainstream trend impacting people of all on digital products marketed to children. In
ages. the workforce, employees are demanding
Time spent on social media has been linked the right to unplug and disconnect. This will
to anxiety and depression, while time shift how we relate to and use our devices
spent on mobile phones, tablets, e-read- — however it also directly impacts every
Apple’s Screen Time app released this year
ers has been said to disrupt sleep cycles single business model that hinges on our
shows you how addicted you are to your phone.
and reduce productivity. In 2018, Face- attention.
book admitted that research shows that
spending too much time on the platform Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
can make people feel bad, while Google and New York City Council, Common Sense,
Apple both unveiled new system updates Center for Humane Technology, Apple,
and apps to help users monitor their digital Google, Facebook.
well beings.

Patient-Generated
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Health Data REVISIT
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! wards customers for engaging in a healthy hospitals and doctors, holding patient data
lifestyle. Points are earned for exercise, for ransom. In May 2017, hackers used
Patients are creating a trove of data meditation and other healthy activities—af- the WannaCry malware to break into the
that could contribute to their healthcare ter enough are earned, they can be used UK’s National Health Service, crippling the
provider’s overall assessment. Packaging for online shopping. But there’s something nation’s hospitals and clinics. In January
all that data—and figuring out how to make in it for the insurers, too: getting access to 2018, hackers used the remote access
use of it—is still a challenge. huge amounts of activity and lifestyle data portal to break into a rural Indiana hospi-
in real time will allow them to predict and tal. They demanded 4 bitcoin to release the
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! adjust their pricing models down the road. data. The timing was awful: there had just
From Fitbits to Apple Watches to smart We also generate data at the doctor’s of- been a serious ice storm, which caused a
scales we use at home, there are hun- fice, and under federal law in the US, that spike in emergency room visits, and there Our health data, combined with artificial intel-
dreds of devices now able to collect and data must be filed and stored electron- was a local flu outbreak. ligence, could soon allow doctors to provide us
monitor our health using lots of different ically. The medical community and public Not all future scenarios are bleak. Our better preventative care.
inputs. New software from companies health sector are now trying to find ways health data, combined with artificial intelli-
like Validic allow doctors to collect this to make good use of what we’re creating. gence, could soon allow doctors to provide
other data and incorporate it into their Differential privacy measures could enable us better preventative care.
medical records—as long as patients give hospital systems to anonymize our private
their consent. GE Healthcare, Meditech, details while still making our data useful to Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Allscripts, eClinicalWorks and Cerner are researchers.
all building products to make better use of Amazon; Manulife Financial; GE Healthcare;
our data. Meditech; Allscripts; eClinicalWorks; Cern-
What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! er; Validic; HumanAPI; Vivify; Apple; IBM;
Insurers are interested in our data, too. In Healthcare systems and providers will Microsoft; Qualcomm; Google; Medicare;
2018, the US, John Hancock (part of Manu- need to shore up security fast. On a Medicaid; national health systems; insur-
life Financial) launched a program that re- near-weekly basis, hackers are targeting ance companies.
278
The Big Nine’s Health

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Initiatives REVISIT
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All of the Big Nine companies – Amazon, Google, IBM, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook in
the US, along with Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent in China – are now leading various health
initiatives. Google is making big investments in genomics, healthcare application research
and HIPAA compliance in the cloud. Its Calico, DeepMind and Verily divisions are each on a
mission to develop new technology and to advance artificial intelligence to improve human
health. Amazon partnered with Berkshire Hathaway and J.P. Morgan to reimagine insur-
ance and healthcare; it acquired internet pharmacy PillPack; it’s actively building at-home
medical diagnostic kits; Alexa will soon be able to tell whether you’ve had a cold; and it’s
built a product to mine patient health records. Amazon and Apple both have started build-
ing independent health clinics. In some way, all of the Big Nine companies have ambitious
health strategies that we will see unfold in the coming years.
Apple has started building health clinics.

Interactive Mirrors
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! sharing data. The Mirror is an interactive Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

gym masquerading as – wait for it – a full-
New mirrors capable of recognizing you length, wall-mounted mirror. A coach leads Amazon; Apple; Google; IBM; Microsoft; Ali-
and suggesting helpful information will recorded or live classes and the mirror baba; Baidu; Tencent; Tonal; Mirror; Kohler;
start to change how we exercise, apply helps you adjust your form. Meanwhile Capstone; Mirror; CareOS; GE; Qualcomm;
makeup and choose which over the counter Tonal is an interactive fitness mirror that Medicare; Medicaid; national health sys-
drugs to take. comes with adjustable arms for resis- tems; insurance companies.
tance and weight training. The system will
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! automatically detect your performance and
While connected mirrors have been avail- either increase or decrease the resistance
able for the past few years, the latest during your workout..
Mirror is a new interactive exercise product to
mirrors are aided by machine learning and
help people work out at home.
are designed to interact with consumers What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
seamlessly, like a visual conversation. Because of the volume of data collect-
The Artemis smart mirror from Care- ed and used by interactive mirrors, it’s
OS is intended to help users try out new likely that the next phase of development
hair styles and colors—however it will will include connecting your data to third
also collect and analyze data to deter- parties: your doctor, your insurer, possibly
mine whether that mole on your neck is even your government.
something a doctor should check out.
Capstone’s Connected Home mirror and
Kohler’s Verdera Voice smart mirror
are both powered by Google Assistant,
which recognizes faces and voices before
280
Touch-Sensitive
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Researchers are developing new pros- Interdisciplinary researchers at the Cen- Johns Hopkins University; University of
thetic skins and limbs that restore not just ter for Wearable Sensors and the Center California at San Diego; Lausanne and
movement—but touch as well. for Brain and Cognition at the University Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies;
of California at San Diego are combining University Hospital Agostino Gemelli; Na-
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! materials science and psychophysics to tional Academy of Science; FDA; University
map exactly how humans perceive touch. of Chicago; Duke University’s Center for
Humans are capable of distinguishing
This research lays the groundwork for Neuroengineering; University of Southern
between various surfaces—and we’re
advanced prosthetics in the future. We’ve California; University of Washington’s Cen-
quite sensitive. Researchers have been
already seen some exciting developments. ter for Sensorimotor Neural Engineering;
A prosthetic hand equipped with the experimen- amassing a body of knowledge to help them
Neuroscientists at the University of Chi- Johns Hopkins University; Carnegie Mellon
tal e-dermis. develop electronic skin, and prosthet-
cago are experimenting with touch-sensi- University; StarLab; Case Western Reserve
ic body parts that deliver haptic, tactile
Photo Credit: Larry Canner/JHU. tive robotics and rhesus monkeys, whose University; Penn State University; DARPA.
sensations. In 2018, researchers at Johns
neural-sensory biology is most similar to
Hopkins University in Baltimore created an
humans. They successfully simulated the
electronic skin to help restore a sense of
sensation of touch by stimulating certain
touch to amputees. Dubbed “e-dermis,” it
areas of the brain. A team of scientists
recreates a sense of touch (including pain)
from the Lausanne and Sant’Anna School
by sensing stimuli and sending that signal
of Advanced Studies and the University
back to the peripheral nerves.
Hospital Agostino Gemelli developed a bi-
onic hand that transmits a realistic sense
of touch; it’s already in use, restoring
sensation to a woman who lost her hand in
an accident 25 years ago.

Smart Thread
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“Smart thread” uses electrical currents Think of “smart thread” as a sort of tem- Smart thread is just coming out of exper-
and transmits information to doctors after porary, smart system that connects to a imentation, but initial tests results show
surgery. smartphone or other medical device and that it can be successfully used as a diag-
reports on your glucose levels, diagno- nostic device.
ses an infection and alerts hospital staff Smart thread can change color and transmit
if your body is chemically out of balance. Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! data.
Researchers at Tufts University have em- Tufts University; University of California at
bedded nano-scale sensors and electron- Berkeley’s School of Information; Har-
ics into surgical thread, that can be used vard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and
for suturing. Meantime, at the University of Technology; Harvard University’s Wyss
California at Berkeley’s School of Infor- Institute.
mation, researchers are experimenting
with smart threads that can change color.
These non-surgical threads are coated
with thermochromic paint that changes
color when jolted with electricity.
282
Vaping and E-cigarettes

INFORMS ACT
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The market for e-cigarettes has exploded in the past few years since Juul and Vuse en-
tered the marketplace. Juul earned a $12 billion investment from Altria Group (includes
Philip Morris and Nat Sherman) – which is remarkable, given that in 2019 we should ex-
pect to see tighter Food and Drug Administration regulations. In the US Consumers may
be giving up on traditional cigarettes, but e-cigarette technology is attractive because
consumers believe it to be a healthier alternative. In 2019, Juul will begin running TV com-
mercials – the company has managed to skirt FCC regulations regarding the marketing of
tobacco. Expect lots of debate on vaping and e-cigarette regulations throughout 2019.
Vaping and e-cigarettes could face additional federal regulation in 2019.

TRENDS 252 - 262 Seventh year on the list
WEARABLES
INFORMS ACT
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The End of Smartphones Key Insight !!!!!!!!!!
There are more than 1,000 wearable

Globally, smartphone shipments are in decline. devices now available to consumers and
Apple will no longer report sales numbers for to the enterprise. Worldwide shipments of
wearable devices should top 270 million in
any of its hardware products — it’s a clear signal 2019 – more than half dedicated to per-
about what’s on the mid-horizon. And even as new sonal fitness or biometrics, while others
are intended for gaming, work and medical
form factors enter the consumer marketplace monitoring. Global sales of consumer Magic Leap’s new Creator Edition mixed reality
wearables (non-medical) should generate glasses were sent to developers late in 2018.
next year — you’ll see dual-sided phones and revenue of $38 billion in the coming year.
models with foldable screens — the functionality As of now, nearly all wearables require
isn’t improving at a fast-enough rate to merit a smartphone or computer to see and
report data, adjust settings and archive
tossing out existing phones for new ones. In information. But that will change as
smartphones fade to the background.
the next ten years, we will transition from just
one phone that we carry to a suite of next-gen 252 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Smart Glasses
communication devices, which we will wear and
In 2018, Magic Leap shipped the Creator
command using our voice, gesture and touch. edition of its long-awaited smart glasses
and spatial computing system. The glasses
project light directly into the user’s eye,
– Amy Webb
284
TRENDS 252 - 262 Seventh year on the list
Wearables cont.
making it seem as though digital objects devices. What’s next: they will soon collect smart bras, camisoles, and sleep shirts
exist in the real world. Don’t force con- your biometric data and other personal that collect data to determine an individual
nections between Google Glass and what information in order to provide added baseline for the user, then an app monitors
comes next. Glass was a successful tech- functionality. The HTC Vive tracks your activity looking for abnormalities. The sys-
nology in search of a market. This year, movement, while controller sticks send tem can detect early signs of pulmonary
as the Magic Leap ecosystem grows, we haptic signals to your brain as you work conditions and sleep apnea.
anticipate much more active development your way through simulated environments.
in spatial computing — not to mention new Beyond videos, there is not much additional 256 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
startups. opportunity to integrate news with HMDs. Smart Rings and Bracelets
(See: Mixed Reality.)
253 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nearly a decade ago, Microsoft exper-
255 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! imented with “skinput,” which turned a
Hearables / Earables person’s arm and hand into an inter-active
In-ear computers, otherwise known as Connected Clothing interface. You could answer a call by tap-
earables, are here. In 2018, Qualcomm A new generation of smart clothes is trick- ping your fingers, or pressing your palm to
released a developer kit to bring Alexa ling onto the market in 2019, from pajamas skip a song on your playlist. Now Google’s
voice recognition to any headphones with infared energy to help your muscles Project Soli is advancing that skinput idea:
used with Android smartphones. Bragi’s recover faster from a hard workout to in December 2018, the FCC approved its
wireless Dash earbuds give users access yoga pants that alert you when you’re out proposed tests of a new chip that uses ra-
to Android’s and Apple’s digital assistants, of alignment in poses. Pivot Yoga makes dar to track micromotions. The Soli chip (or
Everyday wearables will soon collect our bio-
responding to gesture as well as voice. connected yoga pants—you read that something like it) could be embedded into
metric data.
For example, an incoming phone call can right—that monitor your downward dogs glasses, rings, bracelets,— virtually any
be accepted by shaking your head yes, or and help you adjust your form. Their con- connected thing you might wear. We’re al-
declined by shaking your head no. Future nected clothing syncs to an app, through ready transitioning from physical to digital
versions of Apple’s EarPods will moni- which a digital assistant will tell you when buttons; soon skinput may teach consum-
tor temperature, perspiration and heart to turn your left hip or to move your legs ers to live without any buttons at all.
rate during exercise or sports—and those three inches back on the mat. Apple has
earbuds will be used to control electron- patented “force-sensing” fabrics, includ- 257 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ic devices (like our phones) using head ing a glove that could be used to monitor Smart Belts and Shoes
gestures. our blood pressure and heart rates. New
smart bras, intended for athletes and French company E-Vone is selling a smart
254 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! fitness enthusiasts, captures biomet- shoe with fall detection—if the wearer falls,
ric data to track cardiac and pulmonary it sends an alert. Rather than purchasing a
Head Mounted Displays single pair, users subscribe to a service –
activity. One startup, OMsignal, created
Virtual reality headsets are wearable

they automatically get a new pair annually. for haptic glove controllers, which would scopic, organic semiconductors and car- care monitoring service. There are a lot
Welt Corp offers a smart belt that can simulate the physical sensations of slicing, bon nanotubes that stretch and flex and of benefits: rather than moving into an
detect falls, too – and it sends push noti- punching and shooting. can be powered wirelessly. Called BioStam- assisted living facility or spending a lot of
fications if it senses that you’ve eaten too pRC, it’s far thicker than a tattooable, but time in the hospital, patients can instead
much. In early 2018, Baltimore-based Un- 259 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the idea is the same—and it’s only a matter move back home while being provided with
der Armour launched its next-generation of time before the technology shrinks. virtual care. While some of the established
Smart Helmets
set of connected running shoes, whose medical devices use strong encryption
foam soles include an accelerometer, a gy- The National Football League and Air 261 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! algorithms, many new wearable devices
roscope, a battery and a Bluetooth module. Force both use smart helmets, but now don’t. They’re sending a lot of unencrypt-
that technology is coming to everyday Thinkables
The shoes collect and store data, allowing ed, unsecured personal data – including
you to go out for a run without having to people. Islamabad-based startup Let’s In- In 2018, researchers at MIT debuted func- our locations – across the Internet. As the
bring along your smartphone. They also novate has developed a smart motorcycle tioning smart limbs that are controlled by hacking community becomes more sophis-
set a baseline the first time you use them, helmet that automatically calls for an am- the mind. Thinkables will soon allow more ticated, it’s started targeting hospitals and
and then track distance, stride length and bulance in case of emergency. Nearly half adventurous gamers to control games clinics. The US Department of Homeland
your running cadence over time. Others of Pakistani households own motorcycles, using only their thoughts. Boston start- Security has been investigating several
in the market include Altra IQ for fitness but only 10% of riders wear helmets—and up Neurable created a brain-controlled cybersecurity cases related to WBANs.
optimization, Orphe which changes colors, about 15 people every day die in motor- VR game called Awakening that lets you
and Solepower which can generate power cycle accidents. A smart helmet capable control the game with your thoughts. The
for your cell phone while you hike. of calling for help could save lots of lives 4D Force platform detects brain waves,
in Pakistan, not to mention in other areas capturing EEG/ EOG/ EMG signals and
258 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! around the world. converting them into signals a computer
can understand.
Smart Gloves 260 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In Kenya, a researcher invented smart Tattooables 262 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
gloves that can translate sign language
Medicine will start to look very different. Wireless Body Area Networks
into speech. The gloves, called Sign-IO, use
gesture recognition and sensors embed- Tatooables—temporary skin that can store Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs)
ded in the gloves. Canadian researchers data and deliver drugs—have entered tri- communicate information from your wear-
at Simon Fraser University designed a set als. Researchers at the Institute for Basic able devices back to medical servers, app
of interconnected gloves to help transmit Science and Seoul National University in manufacturers and your home computer.
a sense touch through the internet. When South Korea, the University of Texas in Sensors, such as devices to monitor your
someone moves her fingers in one glove, Austin, the University of Tokyo, Stanford heart rate or oxygen level, collect data and
her actions are sent to her partner wear- and the University of California at San send it back to a central hub (most often,
ing the other. Sony has been filing patents Diego are all working on electronic second your smartphone) which then relays the
skins. MC10 has already created micro- information to a medical team or health
286
14
HOME AUTOMATION
AND THE INTERNET
OF THINGS
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
263 Locks That Use Face Recognition
264 Our Appliances Have Their Own Digital Assistants
265 Smart Appliance Screens
266 Home Appliances That Can Talk To Each Other
267 Wireless Kitchens
268 Smarter Home Security
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 269 The End of Remote Control
270 GDPR, Privacy Laws, and Hackers Threaten the Internet of Things
271 Searching The IoT and the IoPT (Internet of Physical Things)
TRENDS 263 - 269 Seventh YEAR ON THE LIST
HOME AUTOMATION INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!!! 264 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 265 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

From energy management to security to Our Appliances Have Their Own Digital Smart Appliance Screens
mood lighting and smart appliances, home Assistants Major appliance manufacturers are
automation continues to be an important In 2018, Amazon quietly debuted a smart including smart screens in upcoming
technology trend that cuts across numer- microwave that can be controlled using models, supported by Alexa and Google
ous industry sectors. Alexa—and will someday automatically Assistant. The Samsung Family Hub smart
track what you’re heating up. If you’re a refrigerator and Whirlpool Cabrio washing
263 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Prime member and subscribe to certain machines will allow users to interact with
Locks That Use Face Recognition groceries, the microwave and Alexa will them via touch screens and smartphones.
work together to make sure that you never The smart screen interfaces offer custom-
In 2018 Amazon announced a new fea-
run out of staples, like microwave popcorn, ization—new specialty cycles and programs
ture for its Ring doorbells. The system
again. Samsung announced that all of its can be downloaded from the internet.
automatically recognizes people and, if
Amazon’s Smart Basics Microwave responds to appliances will include Bixby—the compa-
they match faces in a database of known
your voice. troublemakers, the police can be notified. A ny’s digital assistant—by 2020. Apple has 266 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
opened up its HomeKit requirements, mak-
patent filed shows that the scope extends Home Appliances That Can Talk To Each
ing it easier for manufacturers and devel-
beyond your doorstep – if suspicious Other
opers to incorporate Siri. Both Amazon
people are walking by your house, police As the Internet of Things matures, more
and Google are partnering with appliance
can be notified, too. You’d also be able to of our smart home appliances will offer
manufacturers en masse, which will soon
review footage and to add your own pho- interoperability, resulting in more auto-
allow us to turn on our dishwashers and
tographs to block certain people from ever mation. Innit, which launched in 2013, is
see how much time is left on the dryer.
getting into your house. (At least through a platform that helps kitchen appliances
a door.) talk to one another, even if your applianc-
es come from several different brands.

In 2019, Innit is partnering with Google Google Home – it can explain how to make 269 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Home Hub and other smart displays to help a recipe while automatically adjusting GE
The End of Remote Control
further connect your kitchen. There are connected smart devices. Urbaneer, a
lots of other options: the Bosch Home Con- Michigan-based home furnishing designer, Subscribers to Comcast’s Xfinity already
nect smart kitchen line connects to Nest is working on a suite of connected furni- have access to voice-controlled remote
Protect. If you forget that pizza in the oven ture that can charge nearby devices. controls, which allow users to search for
and it starts to catch fire, your Nest smoke actors, ask questions about shows, and by-
detector will tell the oven to turn itself off. 268 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! pass the menu system to quickly find what
In the coming year, we’ll see more integra- they want to watch. We tend to associate
Smarter Home Security
tions across brands and appliances. remote controls just with our televisions,
All of the screens in your connected devic- but you can expect to see new uses for The Ring Home Security System is a smart cam-
es will soon double as security cameras. remotes in the years to come. However as era capable of recognizing faces.
267 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Researchers are building new software digital voice assistants become more inte-
Wireless Kitchens that connect smart screen-equipped grated with various consumer electronics,
As appliances and devices start to take devices—such as your television, your smart remotes will give way to embedded
over our counters, we could wind up tan- Chromecast, your Echo Show, your refrig- speakers and microphones within our de-
gled in wires. That might not be a problem erator—with security systems. In prac- vices. TCL Roku TVs will soon be equipped
in the near future. Manufacturers are tice, this means that you could remotely with far-field microphone arrays. Samsung
researching options for wireless charging, monitor any part of your home without will keep its remotes for now, but they will
which include in-counter charging panels having to purchase a camera for every start to rely heavily on its Bixby smart as-
and more energy-efficient appliances. room. Taiwan-based D-Link, which builds sistant. All of this sounds exciting – unless
Chefling’s UltraConnect is an AI-pow- home networking equipment, is launching you are sick or aren’t able to speak.
ered system with the ability to wirelessly home cameras that integrate with either
communicate with Amazon’s Alexa and Google Assistant or Alexa as well as other
screens in your home.
290
TREND 270 Seventh year on the list
GDPR, Privacy Laws, and

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Hackers Threaten the REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
Internet of Things
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! chines, personal drones, shoes, doorbells, What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
fish tanks, bicycles, pajamas… we could fill
FTI has been tracking the evolution of another hundred pages of this report just Safeguarding consumer privacy and
the Internet of Things (IoT) for a decade. listing the diverse ecosystem that will soon securing the IoT will continue to be a
We are continuing to see a convergence become the IoT. challenge in the coming year. IoT devices
pitting the IoT’s growth against the serious are considered ideal targets, because
challenges posed by hackers and policy- Why the sudden explosion? It has to consumers are purchasing more and more
makers. do with the sharply-decreased cost of connected devices without also learning
components, sensors, bandwidth and about how to secure them. Just as your
processors—as well as the now-ubiquitous
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! computer can be hijacked by a botnet, so
availability of smartphones and WiFi in can your smart doorbell. In October 2017,
The IoT will be tested by the GDPR this year. Billions of smart sensors and devices in industrialized nations. Even the internet researchers at Netlab 360 found the
our homes, offices, schools and cars are itself got an upgrade to something called IoT_reaper botnet, which was infecting an
talking to each other, monitoring infor- Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6), which average of 10,000 new devices a day. In
mation and activity, and automating tasks is helping to expand the IoT so that there 2016, the Mirai botnet infiltrated tens of
in order to make your life easier. These are enough usable addresses to go around. thousands of DVRs and webcams, which
devices and their protocols make up the International standards organizations are helped it successfully take down a large
Internet of Things (IoT). In the next few working on a future open standard, just as swath of the internet.
years, there could be as many as 30 billion HTTP and FTP play critical roles in how we
connected devices and machines online: move content around on the web today. There will be calls for increased security
fitness trackers, traffic lights, bras, and regulation in the coming year, when
autonomous vehicle components, farm the IoT nears an inflection point—and de-
equipment, parking meters, coffee ma- velopment starts to outpace our ability to
secure it.

Implications ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! an IoT device for directions, medicine,
learning ¬¬and something goes wrong,
Beyond security, you should be thinking who bears responsibility?
about next-order implications for busi-
ness, consumers, IoT networks, and policy- ! What should the lifecycle of support look
makers. Here are a few to consider: like at scale? For how long are manufac-
! Should we mandate firmware, software
turers and service providers responsi-
and feature updates? ble for customer support, and at what
levels?
! Should those updates be automated,
preventing consumers from overriding Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
them on their own?
Qualcomm; Cisco; Symantec; Bitdefender;
! What are the opportunities for misuse? Global Cyber Alliance; Alphabet; Amazon;
Apple; Honeywell; IFTTT; GE; Intel; Cisco;
! Who, exactly, is responsible for safe- IBM; Sony; Samsung; LG; Hadoop; Arduino;
guarding consumer privacy and securi- SmartThings; AT&T; Verizon; Ericsson;
ty? What role, if any, does the consumer Atmel; littleBits; National Cybersecurity
legally play? Alliance; European Union; US Congress;
Federal Communications Commission; Fed-
! What about IoT devices that span differ-
eral Trade Commission; internet service
ent countries?
providers.
! What happens if and when a device
malfunctions? If a consumer relies on
292
Searching The IoT and the

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
IoPT (Internet of Physical REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
Things)
WATCH

The Internet of Things—that massive inter- You can now shop for products on Amazon Watch out for Thingbots in 2019. These are
connection between all of our smart devic- by simply scanning in a barcode or holding devices that connect to the IoT and act like
es and the internet—is growing at break- your phone for a few seconds in front a botnet. Last year, they wreaked havoc
neck speed. As a result, the IoT is now an of what you want to buy. Advancements in Singapore, Spain and the US – which
attractive target for cybercriminals. in computer vision and machine learning means that your washing machine could
turned our smartphones into periscopes. be running a secret Thingbot and sending
Online search giants like Google and Bing hundreds of spam messages a day. All of
have made it easy to find just about any these IoT devices function at varying levels
information in the digital realm. The idea of security on a wide variety of networks.
The Internet of Things is becoming easier to
is to let us search real-world objects, as
search.
well as all of the devices connected to the Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Internet of Things. Hewlett-Packard; Symantec; Shodan;
You can also search through and pinpoint Thingful; Qualcomm; Intel; Google; Mic-
all of the connected devices on the internet rosoft; Apple; Tencent; Alibaba; Baidu;
if you know how. Shodan and Thingful Amazon.
are search engines for IoT devices. It
was intended as a security tool to help IT
professionals keep track of all the devices
connected to a network.

294
15
WORKPLACE AND
LEARNING TECHNOLOGIES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
272 Universal Basic Income (UBI)
273 AI in Hiring
274 Productivity Bots
275 Adaptive Learning
276 Nanodegrees
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
277 Sharing Economy & Lendership
TRENDS 272 Third year on the list
Universal Basic Income

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
(UBI) REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! aged 18 to 64 would receive $1,000 every 2016 to 2017 on Google Scholar. Think
month. The money to pay for it would come tanks have also continued to assess the
The idea of an unconditional guaranteed in- from consolidating social service pro- economic benefits of a UBI either as a
come for everyone within a country is now grams and from a value-added tax (similar stand-alone policy or as an alternative to
being discussed again both as a means of to what exists in Europe) of 10% on the existing social welfare programs. With
encouraging entrepreneurial innovation production of goods and services. There Finland’s two-year experiment set to end
and in the wake of automation, advanced are city-scale experimental UBI programs in December 2018 and findings expected
robotics, and artificial intelligence. running now in Oakland and Stockton, in early 2019, results of this experiment
California. The Stockton project will give could signal how other countries approach
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 100 randomly-selected low income families UBI moving forward. It’s a popular concept
Finland concluded its two-year UBI experiment A UBI program launched and closely $500 a month for 18 months. supported by tech entrepreneurs like Sam
at the end of 2018. watched in Finland came to an early close Altman, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg in
in 2018. It targeted only 2,000 randomly What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Silicon Valley.
unemployed citizens and gave them 560 An interesting thing to note about the
euros a month (that’s about $675) for two UBI debate is that it has supporters and Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
years. The model didn’t work there – but detractors from both the liberal and Finland; Scotland; Y-Combinator; The Roo-
some experts believe that it’s because conservative sides of the aisle (both in the sevelt Institute; Facebook; Mark Zucker-
other social welfare programs weren’t United States and internationally). For UBI burg; Elon Musk; The Royal Society for the
adjusted alongside the UBI program. optimists, this bipartisanship represents Encouragement of the Arts, Manufactur-
Early in 2019, Democratic presidential an opportunity to craft UBI policies that ers and Commerce; Stanford Center for
candidate Andrew Yang launched a pilot could be instituted legislatively. Philanthropy and Civil Society; American
UBI program in New Hampshire – if it The UBI discussion has also become more Enterprise Institute.
works, and if he’s elected president, he popular in academia, with a 53% increase
would work to ensure that every American in the number of articles published from

AI in Hiring
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! help larger companies find qualified candi- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
dates who might not have applied for the
Artificial intelligence and machine learning original job posting. AI is also being used LinkedIn; Interviewed; Facebook; Amazon;
tools are being used in the hiring process within the interview process to analyze Talent Sonar; HireVue; FAMA; SkillSurvey;
with the hopes of identifying more qualified responses to particular questions. Avrio; Alphabet.
candidates, eliminating human bias, and
reducing time spent on automatable tasks. What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! In 2018, Amazon revealed that it had been
building various programs and tools to au-
There are numerous ways that companies tomate the process of reviewing applicant
and recruiters (both large and small) are resumes. An experimental AI-powered tool AI systems are being used to help in the hiring
using artificial intelligence throughout scored candidates from one to five stars process.
the hiring process. Resume reviewers – but it soon realized that the computer
can quickly analyze resumes for desig- models had learned to prioritize male ap-
nated keywords, years of experience, and plicants over female applicants. While the
grammatical errors while also attempting company decommissioned that system, it
to remove potential bias from factors such did prove that with the right data sets and
as gender, race, or nationality. Companies training models, it will soon be possible to
can automate the pre-interview process employ automated AI systems in search of
by mapping a person’s internet presence new hires.
and also via assessments with tailored
questions to evaluate a potential candi-
date’s responses. This screening can also
298
TREND 274 Fourth YEAR ON THE LIST
Productivity Bots
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! locations. Slack isn’t the only platform

being used: Mattermost, Trello, Asana and
Productivity bots aim to help teams and Rocket.Chat are all helping boost produc-
individuals operate more productively by
Near Future Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! automating tasks that are time consuming
tivity in teams.
and often mundane for individuals—but What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Email-less Companies perfectly suited for bots.
With more distributed teams and the
Blockchain: A Primer ! ! ! ! popularity of coworking spaces on the
With teams constantly needing to be connected, e-mail will rise, automation and productivity tools will
With more than 8 million daily active and continue to move toward the mainstream,
be viewed as a slower and less efficient form of communica- 9 million weekly active users, Slack is by cannibalizing traditional office technology,
tion. Because of this, companies will move away from email far the most popular platform integrat- like email.
entirely. But for companies that must keep a paper trail, ing hundreds of productivity bots with
what would the legal considerations be once employees are the workplace. The Obie bot is used as Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
an onboarding tool, allowing new employ-
chatting and using bots? It’s possible to create logs, but they Slack; Rocket.Chat; MatterMost; X.ai; Work-
ees to find answers to simple questions
would be difficult to sift and sort through. For those compa- about the company. Scheduling bots like bot; Obie; Microsoft; Howdy; Standup Alice;
nies that monitor staff email for regulatory reasons, mes- Meekan sync up with coworkers’ calen- Geekbot; Meekan; Skype.
saging systems like Slack could make compliance difficult. dars to provide possible meeting times. If
you’re trying to reduce wasted time that a
stand-up meeting takes up, bots send out a
– Roy Levkovitz request for an update from team members
and pushes out a report once everyone
has sent theirs in. Bots like Lunch Train
help coordinate team lunches and their

Adaptive Learning
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! real-time, as the system autonomously de- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

termines where a student needs additional
An interactive teaching method powered focus. Current systems let instructors NovoEd; Everwise; HarvardX; Pearson;
by artificial intelligence that can be used know where more personalized attention Dreambox; IBM; Microsoft; Knewton; Axoni-
by businesses and educational institutions is needed. fy; Qstream; Intrepid; Geekie.
to tailor curriculum for individuals based
on correct and incorrect responses to What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
questions.
K-12 schools alone have spent over $41
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! million on adaptive learning technology, or
Harvard is testing adaptive learning software.
three times the amount that was spent
In a 2017 course on the open course plat- in 2013. Despite this increase in funding,
form HarvardX, students who were placed widespread adoption of adaptive learning
into the adaptive learning track outper- in schools will still likely lag behind the
formed the control group by 19%—in fact, corporate setting due to the relative lack
they outperformed their peers across of resources and infrastructure.
different key learning objectives. In a busi-
ness setting, adaptive learning systems We expect to see adaptive learning tech-
are being used by employers to onboard nologies more deeply integrated into staff
new staff, train employees, help hone spe- training and talent development in the
cific skills and understand an individual’s coming year.
specific strengths and weaknesses. These
systems adapt to the individual learning
patterns and cognitive skills of students.
Content and exams are customized in
300
TRENDS 276 Fourth year on the list
Nanodegrees
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

The study of a specific topic area or indus- Nanodegrees and shorter online degree These new programs are more agile and
try normally done through an online institu- programs are being pursued by individ- could help solve future workforce gaps
tion, with the goal of increased knowledge uals as an alternative to a traditional 2 faster than traditional universities. Udac-
in the area and some form of certification or 4-year degree, more expensive and ity, one of the most popular platforms to
of completion. time-consuming masters programs, or earn nanodegrees, currently partners
simply as an approach to receive a cer- with different companies (including AT&T
tified understanding of a topic. They’re and Mercedes-Benz) to offer nanodegree
now offered in many different disciplines programs specific to the skills set of
Udacity offers nanodegrees and enrolls thou-
across different online platforms including their workforces. For now, short degree
sands of students worldwide.
Coursera and Udacity. Many programs take and nanodegree programs are primarily
approximately 3-18 months to complete. offered in advanced technical areas like
They tend to be more cost-effective, too: artificial intelligence and self-driving cars,
they’re billed per-term or on a month-to- but that could change to include other hard
month basis. skills needed in the workforce of tomor-
row.
Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Udacity; Google; Amazon; Coursea; Stan-
ford; Harvard.

Sharing Economy
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
& Lendership REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! and women. One factor that will either aid
or hamper growth is regulation. Both Airb-
People are increasingly comfortable rent-
nb and Uber have been fighting with city
ing goods and services versus needing to
councils around the world. In an effort to
own them. Across various industries ser-
stave off regulation, we could start to see
vice providers or communities have begun
more collaboration between the platforms.
to pool resources for a fee.
Further growth will come in the form of !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! more unique B2B, B2C and C2C services.
Companies will optimize resources by
Uber, Rent The Runway and Airbnb are
just three of the thousands of sharing
renting out unused equipment to each
other and sharing workspaces. Likewise,
The Rise of Chief Ethics
economy platforms used around the world.
Sharing economy companies are now
we expect to see a new crop of companies
that exist to provide shared services for
Officers
everywhere: transportation, real estate,
upcoming niche industries (baby stroller
retail, professional services, even biotech-
rentals for traveling families). The success
In the aftermath of the #metoo movement, employee pro-
nology. tests at big tech companies and revelations about inappro-
of these newer companies will depend on
how consumers value their services—and priate behavior between colleagues at large companies, we
What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! importantly, whether local, state, or feder- expect to see a new crop of CEOs – Chief Ethics Officers –
This could be the year when the first shar- al entities see the need for regulation.
ing economy companies IPO – and they’re
taking root within organizations. These specialized CEOs will
not necessarily all destined to succeed. Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! have a hybrid skills set including human resources manage-
In countries like the US, where a large
The We Company; Crowd Companies Council;
ment, risk management and law, diversity expertise and a
percentage of the population already has deep understanding of technology. They will help ensure that
Softbank; Etsy; Luxe; Rent The Runway;
access to the internet and smartphones,
the sharing economy market is already
Airbnb; Funding Circle; Sparkbox; FarmLink; a company’s core values are consistently reflected within
Toys Trunk; Uber; Lyft; Postmates; Saucy; their workforce, but they will also make sure that a compa-
fairly mature and robust. Part of what will
NeighborGoods; Vayable; ToolLocker; Trusti-
drive the sharing economy in 2019 will be ny’s values represent society’s moral principles.
fy; Seateroo; Scribendi and many others.
the global emerging middle class, retirees
302
16
BLOCKCHAINS,
TOKENS
AND CRYPTOCURRENCIES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
278 Blockchain Technologies
279 Digital Citizenship
280 Cryptocurrencies
281 Self-Sovereign Identity
282 Web 3.0
283 Tokenomics
284 Tokens For Smart Royalties and Freelancers
285 Immutable Content
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
286 Distributed Computing For a Cause
287 Decentralized Curation
Blockchain Technologies
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! using consensus algorithms. In theory, ledger because the ledger is distributed.
blockchain reduces the need for interme- No single node controls the network and all
Blockchain technology hit an inflection diaries such as banks to coordinate or nodes have the option to become miners
point in 2017. It evolved beyond Bitcoin, verify transactions. Blockchains are a type if they choose because the network is
from a fringe form of digital currency, and of distributed ledger technologies. Other decentralized. Some nodes on the network
broke into mainstream, as a revolutionary types of distributed ledger technologies choose to be miners which means they
way to share and store information. While include a Directed Acylic Graph or a DAG. have the responsibility to verify pending
this technology is still developing, its broad Unlike blockchains, DAGs do not use miners transactions, which costs more in terms
and far-reaching applications have the po- or blocks. of energy usage and CPU. As a reward for
tential to impact a range of industries. For their efforts, every miner that verifies a
At its core, blockchain enables multiple parties
that reason, we have outlined key themes Where is the Blockchain, block of transactions wins a block reward,
within blockchain and distributed ledger exactly? 12.5 bitcoins for example. With miners, the
to agree on a single source of truth without
technologies. oversight of the network is crowdsourced.
having to trust one another. There isn’t just one blockchain. In fact,
Transactions are verified by running
Blockchain: A Primer ! ! ! ! there are different types: private, public,
consensus algorithms such as “proof-of-
and federated. Blockchains can be started
work” or “proof-of-stake”; miners compete
What is Blockchain? by individuals, companies or consortiums,
against each other to verify transactions.
and they live on multiple machines simulta-
Blockchain technology is a method of shar- Once a miner verifies a set of transactions
neously. There is no singular place where
ing and storing information on a distrib- or a “block”, the node broadcasts the new
“the blockchain” is hosted.
uted ledger where identities and transac- block to the entire network. If the majority
tions are cryptographically protected. At How does it work? of the network agrees the block is valid, it
its core, blockchain enables multiple paris cryptographically added to the exist-
ties to agree on a single source of truth Let’s assume we have a network of 100 ing chain of blocks or “blockchain” which
without having to trust one another. It individual nodes running a blockchain led- forms the ledger and miners are able to
facilitates agreement and aligns incentives ger. Every node has access to see the full work on the next block. Since it is impos-

sible to predict which miner will verify the of smart contracts. Smart contracts are need to be addressed before it can reach management, healthcare, and identity man-
next transaction, it is nearly impossible self-executing agreements where the terms mass adoption. The primary challenges agement.
to collude against, attack, or defraud the of the agreement are directly written into of blockchain relate to speed, scale, and
network. The network is secure as long as lines of code. Ethereum was also the first regulation.
miners act independently of one another. blockchain project to fundraise through Watchlist !!!!!!!!!!
Decentralized systems are inherently less
The primary way to attack this network an “Initial Coin Offering” or ICO. Ethereum efficient than centralized systems and Citi; Goldman Sachs; JP Morgan; Morgan
is to control 51% of the miners. Imagine raised $19 M USD in 2014. In 2017, more there are trade-offs between security Stanley; IBM; Fidelity; Deutsche Bank;
editing a Google Doc or a Wikipedia article, than 400 ICOs raised $5.6 B USD. and scale. Bitcoin and Ethereum process HSBC; Santander; Walmart; Facebook; Goo-
these are distributed systems where While 2018 was described as mostly a bear between 3 to 6 transactions per second gle; Amazon; Bank of America; Mastercard;
transactions are verified by a central market for blockchain, Citi, Goldman Sachs, whereas Visa can process thousands of Maersk; Ethereum; Hyperledger; Tencent;
authority, Google and Wikipedia respective- JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Fidelity, transactions per second. Stellar.
ly. Blockchain systems replace the central Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Santander, Walmart,
administrators with consensus algorithms The regulatory environment for block-
Facebook, Google, and Amazon all made chains and ICOs is still unclear. In the US,
and network miners. significant investments in the industry. the SEC, FinCen, the CFTC, and local state
Bank of America, Mastercard, and IBM have
Brief history 100 blockchain-related patents between
governments, all have specific and at times
conflicting policies related to blockchains
Blockchain was first introduced in 2008 them. In the past decade, distributed led- and cryptoassets.
when a person or group of people under the ger technologies (DLTs) have evolved into
name Satoshi Nakamoto published the semi- countless permutations and applications Industries to watch
nal paper, “Bitcoin: a Peer to Peer Electronic across almost every industry imaginable.
Cash System.” The primary use cases for blockchain tech-
Drawbacks nology evolved out of financial services but
In 2015, Canadian computer program- blockchains have grown into main indus-
ming Vitalik Buterin released Ethereum, a Blockchain is still nascent technology tries. Pay close attention to blockchain use
blockchain-based protocol that allowed for and there are a lot of challenges that cases in financial services, supply chain
more sophisticated functionality in the form
306
How To Speak Blockchain
51% attack fees and tips which are distributed by Crypto-currency in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin. The currency is
Hypothetical attack on a blockchain where individuals (as opposed to the network) to A crypto-asset that designed to function abbreviated as ETH on exchanges.
a group of miners working collectively incentivize miners to verify their transac- as money, a medium of exchange. Cryp-
controls more that 50% of the network’s tions first. Fiat
to-currencies’ value fluxuates depending
mining power. These miners could collude on demand and supply, similar to tradition- Government issued currency.
Blockchain
to verify fraudulent transactions. al currency in the global economy.
A new way to share and store information Fork
Altcoins on a distributed system where transac- DAO The splitting of a single blockchain,
Any coin other than Bitcoin. tions and identities are cryptographically Decentralized autonomous organization, creating two alternative blockchains on
secured. Blockchains are a subset of not to be confused with “The DAO” which different parts of the network. Forks
Bitcoin distributed ledger technologies (DLTs). was a venture capital fund built on top of can be accidental, temporary, intentional,
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin are some of Ethereum. The DAO had a bug in the code permanent, planned or contentious. They
the first blockchain. It was introduced in the more famous examples of blockchain that was exploited and caused Ethereum can be the result of software upgrades or
2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto. The currency is networks. to fork. Many coins use DAOs as a form of governance decisions that nodes refuse to
abbreviated as BTC on exchanges. governance and decision-making among acknowledge or forget to install.
Cold storage
the network. The Ethereum DAO is the
Block height Refers to storing a digital “wallet” or Fork, hard fork
most famous because it resulted in a con-
Number of blocks preceding a particular private keys offline, in a piece of hardware Software update on a blockchain protocol
tentious hard fork and a $50 M hack.
block. The first block on a blockchain is not connected to the internet. that is not backward compatible, creating
referred to as the genesis block and has a Dapp a separate blockchain. Ethereum’s hard-
block height of zero. Consensus Algorithms fork resulted in Ethereum and Ethereum
Decentralized applications run on block-
Algorithms used on blockchain protocols chain platforms. Classic.
Block rewards to reach agreement among the miners,
Tokens distributed by the network to the examples include proof of work, proof of Ethereum Fork, soft fork
miner that verifies a particular block. stake, proof of authority, and byzantine Ethereum is the second largest coin by Software update on a blockchain protocol
Block rewards are different from mining fault tolerance. marketcap after Bitcoin. It was introduced that is backward compatible with order
versions.
FUD HODL Light Node Solidity
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Misspelling of the word “hold”, term used A node on the network that can transact Programming language invented by Vitalik
by crypto investors to describe keeping with other nodes but cannot verify trans- Buterin for smart contracts on Ethereum.
Full node coins despite market volatility and price actions.
A node on the network that can act as a crashes. Token
miner, verifying transactions on the block- Mempool Digital identity for something that can be
chain network. Hot storage Aggregate number and size of uncon- owned.
Refers to storing a digital “wallet” or pri- firmed transactions on a blockchain.
Governance vate keys online, usually within an applica- TPS
Set rules that govern the blockchain pro- tion or exchange connected to the inter- Public Key + Private Key Transactions per second, used to compare
tocol; governance structures can include net, examples include Poloniex, Coinbase Cryptography (similar to what’s used in the speeds of different blockchains.
on-chain rules like smart contracts and and Bittrex. credit cards) for identities, alphanumer-
code specifications and off-chain rules like ic addresses used to send and receive Wallet
a board of directors and annual meetings. ICO transactions. File that contains a collection of private
Short for Initial Coin Offering, relatively keys.
Hash pointer unregulated way of raising money. SHA256
Unique alphanumeric string links blocks Cryptographic hash algorithm used in most Whitepaper
in the chain together with a one way math Immutability blockchains. Technical paper outlining the governance,
function. A primary characteristic of blockchains,a protocol, and features of a project.
record of transactions that does not Shilling
Hashing change and prevents “back-dating” in Aggressively promoting a coin or cryp-
One way math function that takes any input record keeping, sometimes referred to as to-asset.
and produces an unique alphanumeric “digital granite”.
string, used in blockchain to condense Smart Contracts
information into blocks, useful for assign- Self-enforcing agreements where the
ing any digital file or asset with a unique terms are built directly into code and
identifier. issued on a blockchain.
308
Digital Citizenship
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
“This strategy allows the Key Insight !!!!!!!!! (along with financial benefits such as stages. According to the roadmap the
favorable tax breaks) without requiring Chinese government laid out, the plan is to
Maduro regime to provide Some governments are modernizing what physical residence in the country. While have all citizens on a social credit system
greater assistance to its own it means to be a citizen, and the benefits Estonia’s digital citizenship is an example by 2020.
and responsibilities that entails. Estonia
supporters, and to target was the first country to offer e-residency,
of positive government innovations, other
countries have introduced more contro- What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
others who are desperate allowing individuals to become a citizen of versial initiatives. In democratic countries with protections
enough to change their vote the country without actually living there.
In the two years that it has been in circula- for individual freedoms and rights, digital
Now, countries like China and Venezuela
in order to receive food are expanding the definition of digital cit- tion, 15 million Venezuelans allegedly have a citizenship can usher in a new age of
aid...It is becoming evident izenship with surveillance programs such “Carnet de la Patria” or a Fatherland Card, innovation and improved public services.
which was built by Chinese telecom giant However, many authoritarian and totalitar-
that the Maduro regime is as social credit scores and government is-
ZTE. Under the dictatorship of Nicolás Mad-
sued IDs that track everything from voting ian regimes are eager to adopt these tech-
weaponizing its safety net uro, Venezuelans have to use this card to nologies as well as to maintain control and
records to state pensions.
program during a time of access government services, pensions, and concentrate power. As part of the Belt and
crisis in order to prioritize, food stamps. The card also tracks voting Road Initiative, Chinese AI and surveillance
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
records and party registration. companies with the support of the Chinese
amplify, and concentrate Estonia, a small Northern European coun- government are exporting their services
Local governments in China made head-
political power.” try of 1.3 million, was the first country to
lines last year by piloting different social to governments all over the world.
move most of its government services fully
credit systems that would rank, punish, or
– Moises Rendon, Associate Director at online fifteen years ago. From taxes to Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
reward citizens based on certain behav-
the Center for Strategic and Interna- voting to healthcare, Estonia has created a
ior. This concept, first announced in 2014, ZTE;Aadhaar;Sesame Credit; Alibaba;
tional Studies, explaining how digital myriad of digital tools to serve its citizens.
was widely criticized as Orwellian social Cloudwalk; Hikvision; Yitu; SenseTime.
identity cards can be used for social Last year, in an effort to attract more en-
engineering if not outright creepy. All of
control and political coercion6 trepreneurs and tech talent, Estonia began
these pilot programs are still in their early
piloting a beta digital citizenship program
© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 6. https://www.csis.org/analysis/maduro-diet-food-v-freedom-venezuela

Catastrophic Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What happens if blockchain is used to track

citizens in authoritarian regimes?
Given what we know about existing government blockchain programs, government is-
sued-IDs, and the state of international politics, blockchain will likely be a technology that
makes it easier to track citizens and abuse power. Canada, Estonia, and India have all
launched massive digital identity programs for their citizens; some are voluntary opt-in
programs, others are compulsory programs like the Aadhaar program in India. Once these
blockchains are in place, because of the “immutability” characteristic of this technology,
it will be hard to ensure that citizens maintain some GDPR-era digital rights such as the
right to be forgotten.
China and Russia have large scale citizen surveillance programs that they are exporting
to other countries. Venezuela launched a botched cryptocurrency called the Petro. While
it has been ridiculed in the crypto-community, it may be a sign of things to come. What if
more central banks start issuing digital currencies?
While the promises of blockchain and Web 3.0 were full of decentralization of power, in re-
ality, influence and power in these networks concentrate within two parties: the develop-
ers who write the code for core protocols and the miners who validate transactions. The
number of people who can contribute to open-source blockchain projects is tiny relative
to the size of the networks. Corporations and governments with majority control of either
the miners or the developers can potentially manipulate the system and rewrite the rules.
Customers and citizens will have limited options and alternative blockchains to switch to.
– Elena Giralt
310
TREND 280 Seventh year on the list
Cryptocurrencies
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
Decentralized cryptocurrencies are good in theory: a decentralized public ledger makes VIGILANT
LATER
sure that no one can double-dip and spend their tokens twice. Except when there’s WATCH
a vulnerability. In January 2019, Ethereum Classic was hit with a $500,000 double LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
spending attack when someone gained control of 51% of the machines in its network.
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Mining - Almost all cryptocurrencies run the US, the Securities and Exchange Com-
on a consensus algorithm that requires mission recently charged celebrities DJ
Cryptocurrencies are digital assets or While adoption continues to grow, 2018
many computers in a network to agree on Khaled and Floyd Mayweather with crypto
stores of wealth that use a crowd-regulat- was a bear market for cryptocurrencies,
the state of the shared ledger. This pro- fraud. Thus far, the primary motives for
ed public ledger system. with many companies folding, cutting back
cess of consensus, usually incentivized by regulation seem to be based on consumer
expenses, or laying off employees. In order
a financial reward, is called mining. In the protection, anti-money-laundering and
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! to understand how this trend is evolving,
past five years, companies have sprung up combating the financing of terrorism. At
focus on the three main sources of change
Bitcoin is the most well-known example, that specifically cater to the crypto-min- the state level, crypto regulation varies
in the cryptocurrency landscape:
though there are more than 2,000 known ing industry. There are mining hardware widely. Among the friendliest states, Ohio
cryptocurrencies in existence. Cryptocur- Exchanges - Most cryptocurrency activity manufacturers that sell miners - comput- lets you pay taxes in crypto.
rencies have ushered in the need for new takes place on currency exchanges such ers specifically designed to mine cryptos.
generation of financial regulations, partic- as Coinbase, Gemini or Kraken. These Bitmain is the largest producer for ASIC Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
ularly with the advent of ICOs or Initial Coin exchanges list the most credible crypto- chip machines. Mining pools are groups of Coinbase; Gemini; IBM; Ethereum; Bitmain;
Offerings and smart contracts. Crypto- currencies and let users purchase crypto miners that collectively pool their resourc- Canaan; ConsenSys; SEC; central banks;
currencies are an entirely new asset class with traditional money otherwise known es to increase their chances of earning Robinhood; Slushpool; Antpool; Bitfury.
that may take years to fully mature. While as fiat. Exchanges are pioneering relation- the block reward. The mining rewards are
the market is volatile now, the future use ships with regulators in every region of shared throughout the group based on the
cases for “programmable money” are hard the world and they have also contributed rules of the pool. Mining pools have a lot of
to ignore. to increased user adoption by making the power in determining if a fork is success-
crypto purchasing experience as easy as ful or if a coin increases in value because
possible. Of the 2,000+ cryptocurrencies miners are critical for processing transac-
in circulation today, it is likely that 90% of tions on a decentralized public blockchain.
them will fail. By deciding which currency
Regulation - The regulatory environment
to list, exchanges play a powerful role in
for cryptocurrencies is still uncertain. In
shaping the landscape long term.

Self-Sovereign Identity
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Self-sovereign identity has two primary mation (PII) to reset passwords and break
benefits: increased security and increased into accounts. Blockchain-based identity
Identity management systems have seen a control. Increased security because de- solutions could provide documentation for
gradual evolution from government issued centralized identity solutions in theory are the world’s 25 million refugees.8
IDs to email providers and social media ac- much harder to hack. Increased control
counts. The average person has between because when an individual manages What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
27 and 130 unique online accounts.7 Com- her identity, she owns her data and can
panies like Google, Yahoo, and Facebook Self-sovereign identity will likely be ad-
therefore decide how to monetize it. For opted in phases. IBM and Microsoft are
have built their business models on manag- media companies, self-sovereign identity is
ing troves of data on behalf of their users; piloting projects and startups like UPort
a trend that touches on paywalls, authenti-
but users have suffered from large-scale and Sovrin are making headlines. Since
cation, creative IP and royalty tracking, as
security breaches like the Yahoo hack that interoperability is a defining feature of Self-sovereign identity is a system where the
well as digital advertising.
impacted every single one of its 3 billion decentralized identities, media compa- user is central to the administration of her data
accounts. nies should look for partners instead of and owns her data outright.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! attempting to launch an identity product on
Blockchains and distributed ledger tech- Identity systems help individuals validate their own.
nologies have introduced a new approach reputation, manage risk and gain access
to identity management: self-sovereign to groups. Many systems rely on third-par- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
identity. Self-sovereign identity is a system ty “identity providers” like governments,
where the user is central to the admin- Po.et; IBM; Microsoft; UPort; Curren-
Facebook, or Google. Digital identity
istration of her data and owns her data cy; Ubisoft; Custos Media Technologies;
management has been a central point of
outright. It is interoperable and trans- Vaultitude; Spotify; Comcast; MediaOcean;
vulnerability for individuals and corpora-
portable across applications, devices, and MetaX; AdEx; Kind Ads; Brave browser;
tions alike with hackers using phishing
platforms. Netflix; Google; Facebook.
emails and personally identifiable infor-
7. Source: InfoToday, 8. United Nations Refugee Agency 2019 statistics. 312

Web 3.0
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! mation; then so blockchain will enable in tary File System (IPFS) is a peer-to-peer What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
a new wave of innovation for information hypermedia protocol that facilitates decen-
2019 marks the 30th anniversary of the In web 3.0, protocols and platforms
technology and databases. Distributed led- tralized file sharing and cloud computing.
world wide web. The next iteration of the may have much more potential for value
gers can encourage massive collaboration All this is possible because of what Joel
web is being accelerated by decentraliza- creation, hence a larger protocol layer.
on a larger scale and usher in web 3.0. Monegro from Union Square Ventures
tion and collaboration. Companies like Blockstack, Lightning Labs,
With web 3.0 – the Semantic Web – col- described as the “fat protocol layer.” Web and RSK are building layer 2 networking
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! laboration and decentralized creation protocol layer is part of the full internet products. With web 3.0, web browsers
is accelerated for two reasons. First, stack. “Full stack” refers to every stage of and mobile applications can perform more
The internet is always evolving. Up until
gathering, mining, and understanding the computer programming/ web develop- complex processes and enable transac-
today, it has seen three major waves of
unstructured data will be much easier with ers tool kit: front end (UX, design, HTML, tions that were previously not possible. On
innovation. Web 1.0, the beginning of the
advanced techniques such as data mining, Java, CSS) to back end (servers, databas- web 3.0, media companies might be able to
internet age, introduced static web pages,
natural language processing (NLP), and es, APIs, Python, Ruby). The internet stack set up micropayment systems or enable
e-commerce and email. The web 2.0 enabled
text analytics. Second, machines can col- has application layers and protocol layers. users to have more control over their
decentralized collaboration and creativity
laborate directly with one another through In web 2.0, most of the value captured was privacy and data. .
by ushering in social networks, sharing
artificial intelligence and machine learning. in the application layer with little variabil-
economies, cloud computing and dynamic
Eventually, machines will be able to teach ity in the protocol layer. Examples of the Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
self-sustaining content repositories like
one another. most common protocols are HTTP used by
Wikipedia and Github. Some collaborations Blockstack, Lightning Labs, RSK.
have pushed our imagination beyond what There are already projects like this browsers and SMTP and IMAP is used by
we thought was possible, like Reddit’s April underway. In media, Otoy is lowering 3D/ email-clients.
Fools Day 2017 experiment or Google’s six- visual effects production costs by creating
month Quick Draw Doodling game. a decentralized, distributed network of
partners that can chip in spare processing
Just as cloud computing revolutionized
power with RNDR tokens. The Interplane-
how businesses manage and store infor-

Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The near-futures of Gigware

Imagine getting into bed tonight and plugging your phone into its charger on your night-
stand like always. You set the alarm, and just before closing your eyes to sleep, you start
up a special app—one which invites hackers to take over your phone. It isn’t a dream—but it
isn’t a nightmare either. It’s the future of the gig economy.
In the coming years, you’re going to hear a lot about our new decentralized sharing econ-
omy. It’s a clever way of distributing computing power over a wide network for a variety of
tasks, which range from performing mathematical computations to mining for cryptocur-
rencies. All you need to get started is to install what we call “gigware.” It’s a benevolent
use for the same kind of malware a hacker relies on to break into your computers and
phones, except that it generates a tangible benefit, whether you’re a company or indi-
vidual user. Think of it as the next evolution of the sharing economy powered by artificial
intelligence.
At the moment, there are nearly four billion internet users spread around the world, and
each of us owns three devices on average. That means there’s a gigantic pool of process-
ing power sitting dormant at any given time.
Gigware is like Airbnb for your computers and phones. It will someday allow third-party
businesses to use your smartphones and computers in exchange for credits or real money
you can spend elsewhere. Because the systems are distributed and decentralized, private
data is safeguarded.
– Amy webb
Tokenomics
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
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works where a token can represent usage, ally zero transaction costs or a rewards Simple Coin has partnered with Unsplash,
utility, value or a combination of the three. program that allows users to lower their a photography website, to create a new
Tokenomics can revolutionize how media monthly subscription by consuming more business model and distribution network
companies approach monetization and media. for photographers. Unsplash already
distribution. Distribution channels are typically “winner- has integrations with Google Slides and
take-all” models where a handful of players Invision. Realistically, the existing distri-
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! dominate the market. Comcast, AT&T, bution models will be difficult to displace
In 2018, blockchain media startup Civil YouTube, Vimeo, Soundcloud, and Spotify and disrupt. Steemit is one of the oldest
are just a few examples. While it’s difficult media-based blockchain tokenomics proj-
made a big – and ultimately too ambitious —
to imagine these companies ever going ects. Launched in 2016, Steemit is a social
bet on tokenomics to create a self-sustain-
away, if the talent and the audience move networking site that pays content creators
In 2018, blockchain media startup Civil launched ing business model for journalism and local
en masse to other platforms with better and curators with over one million regis-
a token sale. media outlets. The system to buy tokens
features (pricing models, revenue share, tered accounts.
was far too convoluted and the promise
to customers wasn’t made clear. But that IP protection), then those companies may
doesn’t mean tokens aren’t going to stick lose their position as market leaders. What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! around for a while. SingularDTV is a blockchain media compa- Tokenomics as a concept was first intro-
Blockchain allows businesses to create Historically, media companies and news ny building out a variety of token models duced in late 2017. Currently, these models
tokens. A token is a unit of value that a organizations have relied on a mix of ad- for artists, producers, and audiences. They are mostly theoretical and it will be a few
business creates to self-govern its oper- based and subscription-based revenue have helped artists finance projects and years before we see how consumers be-
ations, incentivize its users, and distribute models. Newspapers are a clear example they have launched peer-to-peer music have with these models in practice.
benefits to all stakeholders. Tokenomics of how rapidly these revenue models can festivals where audiences have a say in
refers to the different business models be disrupted by digital entrants. Blockchain the line up. SingularDTV’s soon-to-launch Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
made possible by blockchain and DLT net- can facilitate micropayments with virtu- distribution platform is called Ethervision. Civil; ConsenSys; SingularDTV; Steem.io.

Tokens For Smart Royalties

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
and Freelancers REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Smart contracts, digital intellectual prop-

erty rights and micro payments advance-
Platforms like Ethereum enable micropay- Ethereum and other decentralized applica-
ments are creating an opportunity for
ments for accessing intellectual property tion platforms are building infrastructure
news and media to revisit an economic
including content like news or music. The for content creators to receive micro
model that was once adopted by the news
platforms enable this through smart transactions for access to their intellec-
services on CompuServe in the 1980s.
contracts, which are basic contracts that tual property. This is laying the foundation
This was a news structure where readers
are automatically executed. For example, for new, low-friction ways to automate
paid per view of articles, including paying
every time a song is played, it sends a royalty payments for digital intellectual
extra for images. At the time this was
small amount of money from the listener to property.
possible because CompuServe offered
the artist. Ryan Leslie’s platform SuperPhone is an higher quality journalism in a way that was KODAKCoin is designed to help photographers
Platforms will be created around giving the example of a content creator choosing to easier to find, search and read. Ultimately be compensated and retain ownership of their
content creator the most ownership and develop their own distribution model to cut this service failed due to increasing avail- digital property.
rewards for the content produced. Content out intermediaries. The platform Super- ability of free, high quality journalism and
creators will drive adoption because they Phone is being developed into a platform the advent of free search services such as
get the majority of revenues instead of for other artists to do the same. Google and AOL.
giving the majority of the revenues to the KODAKOne and Binded are examples of
distribution platforms. At the same time platforms designed to help photographers What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
the creators will also retain more owner- manage the digital rights of images using Artists with music will be first to publish
ship control and direct interaction with the blockchain technology. They primarily work content on a smart contract enabled plat-
audience. by recording ownership and creation of form where content creators must give
the images on a blockchain ledger and less money to intermediaries. This type of
then using a web crawling service to scan content will be more successful as there is
websites to see if a copyrighted image is greater consumer demand and significant
being used.
316
Tokens For Smart Royalties and Freelancers cont.
revenue for the artists to capture in dis- have required photographers to sign over
intermediating the record and distribution rights to the image purchaser.
companies. The change in ownership rights would be
News platforms will be fast followers the equivalent of Instagram paying popular
but will struggle to incentivize end users content creators directly to retain them
to migrate to new platforms as specific on their platform—it’s a departure from
journalists have less market power and the current model, where network effects
smaller follower base. mean that Instagram does not need to pay
Ownership of digital assets are evolving content creators. Instead, content cre-
with a movement for content creators to ators are paid by brands who seek to get
keep ownership rights of their content. access to the creators’ followers.
GDPR rules in Europe where people have
greater ownership rights over the data Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
they create, no matter what platform Civil; Ethereum; Cardano; EOS; NEO; IOTA;
it is created on is an example. As such Monero; SuperPhone; Kodak Coin; Binded;
we expect that there will be increased Getty; Reuters.
demand for platforms that allow the
content creator to retain ownership and
be compensated for the engagement they
drive. This is likely to affect the photogra-
Ethereum is an open-source platform underpinning hundreds of decentralized cryptocurrencies. phy industry as historically photographers
retained copyright ownership of their
film photographs. But recent platforms

Near-Futures Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Protecting Intellectual Property

In the next 10 years content creators will demand more control over their intellectual property and will begin to use platforms that
provide increased intellectual property protection. As encryption, cryptography and digital identity technology evolve and become more
mainstream, digital content will be managed and controlled in such a way that analog/physical ownership structures will be able to be
applied to digital content. Examples include limiting the number of copies an image can be made and watermarking individual copies of
photographs.
Optimistic Framing Pragmatic Framing Catastrophic Framing

Digital assets of all kinds adopt intellectual property pro- Creators migrate to platforms that provide greater intel- We have a patent troll problem—they’re chasing IP and bur-
tection rules and systems. This enables content creators lectual property. First movers will be musical artists that dens for distribution channels. Patent trolls make the eco-
to capture more of the value that they create downstream, already have established themselves in their industry. It nomics of creating content even more compressed—that
leading to a change in the distribution of rewards in the val- will not be the standard way of operating for end con- winds up reducing creativity and shrinking the pool of peo-
ue chain. This reduces the dominance of the delivery chan- sumers, but end consumers will be willing to use multiple ple and brands creating new content. Only those who can
nel from information delivery. Consequently, ownership and platforms to get to the content they value or because of a afford the potential costs of defending their IP are willing
copyright structures become much clearer and misappro- strong personal connection with the content creator. to create new works.
priation of content becomes very rare. Additionally, as
creators are more fairly compensated, they create more
content that is both paid and unpaid.
– Amy webb
Immutable Content
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! changing all records across most users. A Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
distribution channel leveraging blockchain
Those political truth-o-meters that have TRON; Civil; Decent; Ethereum; reddit;
technology could make it more difficult to
become popular around the world in the Twitter; WordPress; Wix.com; Quora;
censor and limit access to information.
past few years may soon be a thing of the WikiLeaks; Internet Archive; Agora.
Content creators could use distribution
past. That’s because blockchain technolo-
channels that can guarantee that their
gy allows for the creation of a distributed
content does not get altered, filtered or
immutable record of information — which
blocked by a third party.
means that the information can never be
deleted or modified. Taken out of context,
sure. But not twisted or changed into
What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Information can be permanent and accessible to something different. We will soon have the ability to leverage
all with blockchain technology. blockchain-based platforms to guarantee
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! that our content does not get modified
or censored en route to its end consum-
Decentralized platforms for content will
ers. Information archive companies or
give more control to the people who orig-
distribution companies—something akin
inally created it, whether it was a social
to a WikiLeaks—will be able to distribute
media post or a pubic speech. Think of this
information using a distributed system by
trend as a new way to build trust around
inserting the information within a block-
critical information.
chain ledger similar to Bitcoin’s. Record-
This would enable information to be ing information in a blockchain would also
recorded and distributed in a way that is ensure that it does not become inaccessi-
visible to all and cannot be changed without ble if the host servers are disconnected.

Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What happens when everything we say, write and record never, ever,
gets altered or goes away?
In the next 15 years, specific types of information will begin to be transferred into databases that use blockchain technology to ensure
their immutability. The first data sets to be converted will be ones where there is significant distrust among the members and where a
governing body’s impartiality is questionable. Financial services will continue to be a driver of development, but interest in polling and
election/governance systems will increase.

Storage and transmission capabilities expand to support Specific actors and types of information will be valuable Governments restrict information under the assumption
information systems that are never deleted and can handle enough to merit the additional effort required to be put that the public is deemed unable to act in the interest of
each person having a copy of all information. The world into a blockchain. Some will champion the technology, but the greater good. Consequently, information becomes in-
adopts an ethos that all news and information is perma- the technology fails to create a change in how people think creasingly confidential and distributed ledgers become
nent and transparent. News and elections are based on about information and access. Rather than creating a so- outlawed from data ownership perspectives. Splinternets
immutable and transparent record systems such as block- cial revolution, we instead debate the politics of immutable become increasingly common and trust is centralized in or-
chain. This reduces confusion and conflict around gover- records. ganizations with limited oversight. News and information
nance transitions. It causes increased efforts on bridging is limited by editorial control from larger entities that are
the digital to analog divide, thus bringing more and more primarily driven by self-interest.
people into the digital environment, which will improve ac-
cess and reduce social inequality.
– Kriffy Perez
Distributed Computing
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
For a Cause REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! research. People donated their idle com- is to use the idle processor in your phone
puter processing time to the project. to perform distributed computing calcula-
Think of this as an Airbnb for your devices.
Now there are a number of distribut- tions overnight to earn the cryptocurrency
Distributed computing is a process where
ed computing startups hoping to take Monero. Monero will then be used to fund
large computer problems are broken down
advantage of our smartphones and smart quality news organizations that the users
into smaller segments that can be calculat-
devices in the IoT era. Golem.network is select.
ed on multiple regular computers, instead
of on centralized super computers. Dis- a platform that proves that idle computer
tributed computing technology enables idle resources are a valuable asset that can What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
processor time on personal laptops, cell be monetized. Golem is built upon the There will be an increasing number of plat-
The Golem.network is a distributed computing phones and other digital devices to become Ethereum blockchain where one can rent forms that allow consumers to monetize
system that pools resources across many a valuable resource. Idle processor time out idle computing resources like storage, their idle computer resources. This will
devices for shared projects and tasks. then becomes a valuable resource that can processing power, or bandwidth. The enable people to earn new income from
be used to not only solve socially import- platform is currently designed to focus on resources that they already own and are
ant problems but the financial incentives rendering computer-generated images, underutilized. For developers and peo-
for using your idle processing time can be DNA analysis, and machine learning. There ple in need of computing resources, this
used to fund important causes. are three roles in the ecosystem: provid- will help drive down prices for computing
ers of resources, users of resources, and resources and increase the diversity of
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! software developers. GridCoin is another options available.
blockchain-based distributed computing
Folding@home is a distributed comput-
ing project for disease research that
platform providing resources to philan- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
thropic scientific research. Honeycomb
was launched on October 1st, 2000. The Honeycomb; Monero; Golem.network;
is a cryptocurrency-based project which
project used idle processing resources on SONM; GridCoin; Microsoft; Intel; Apple; An-
crowdsources unused phone power to
personal computers, PlayStation 3s, and droid; Amazon Web Services; every single
support quality journalism. The platform
some Sony smartphones too for scientific wireless carrier.
has not yet been launched, but the intent

Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mid-Futures Scenarios For Distributed Computing

Distributed computing technology advances to the point of being just as efficient and fast as centralized computing—but is also able to
leverage idle computing resources in all kinds internet connected devices.

All computing resources can be shared and are automati- Distributed computing technology continues to advance but New computer viruses highjack our devices, which are put
cally load-balanced across resources. This significantly in- is only for specific use cases and for specific kinds of com- to work mining for cryptocurrencies without our knowl-
creases the global computing resources available, improv- puting tasks, instead of all general computing tasks. Load edge. Our devices leech electricity and computing resourc-
ing access and reducing costs for all. Excess capacity is and resource balancing continues to be too complex to ex- es, causing us all headaches. We’ll see repeats of what hap-
used to solve social problems, while access to information ecute effectively at scale while being reliable. Customers pened in May 2018, when a Russian government page was
and technology start to become a universal human right that do not require stringent privacy or ownership rights— hacked and sent visitors to a website that secretly installed
that is distributed across the entire digital ecosystem. or who don’t care about bandwidth—are offered lower fees cryptocurrency mining software on their computer. The
in exchange. The general public doesn’t see the point. frequency and pervasiveness of hijacking computing re-
sources becomes so great that the general internet infra-
structure becomes degraded and slows down as the ma-
– Kriffy Perez
jority of resources are used for mining cryptocurrencies.
Decentralized Curation
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
Digital influencers will wield far more influence over consumers than big, recognizable LATER
WATCH
brands themselves—and this could soon turn traditional marketing and advertising on
its head in the coming years. LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! tive structures from blockchain/smart trust and establishment of credibility.
contract-based platforms create a proving As such it is likely to start with content
Cryptocurrencies and DLTs are shifting
ground for alternate forms of editorial cu- creators that are most accustomed to
how content gets curated — from individual
ration of information that is more resilient forum or blog structures like Reddit where
editors, to smart algorithms, to vast user
to the interests of specific stakeholders. the content is crowd sourced and histor-
bases who vote for content in return for
Steemit is a blogging community like Reddit ical posts on the same topic are relevant.
payments. This impacts lots of industries,
where users are rewarded for creating, Crowdsourced “truths” will evolve past
from fashion to retail, tourism to auto
curating and interacting with content. majority to rule into qualified majority rule
manufacturers, and even those working on
Steemit uses a cryptocurrency-based structures. Cryptographic digital identities
2019 and 2020 political campaigns.
points system to facilitate curation and will increase in importance as trust be-
engagement in content on the platform. comes dependent on the historical merits
Cryptocurrencies and application platforms can Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
prove a model for decentralized curation. Points are earned for creating content, of individual usernames/credentials. Which
Trust can be constructed using new means that digital influencers could wield
upvoting and commenting on other posts.
processes that are less reliant on central far more influence over consumers than
Users build reputations allowing them to
entities. Cryptocurrency self-governance big, recognizable brands themselves — and
have more impact on curating the content.
technology additionally reduces the need this could turn marketing and advertising
Reputations can be built organically or
for intermediaries and changes trust on its head in the coming years.
bought. Points are issued in cryptocur-
dynamics impacting the role of distributors
rency, which can then be converted into
of information and entities that edit and Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
dollars or other currencies.
control information. This is because the
Steemit; Decent; Ethereum; Reddit; Twitter;
platforms are exploring ways to govern
What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! YouTube;, Facebook; WordPress;Wix.com;
themselves, without having a central
You will begin to see users demand that Blogger; Tumblr; Quora; and digital identity
authority or leader of the collective group.
platforms place greater importance in providers such as Oberthur Technologies,
As a result, self-governance and incen-
NetIQ, Socure, Early Warning.

324
17
FINANCIAL
TECHNOLOGIES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
288 Financial Inclusion and Serving the Underbanked
289 Open Banking
290 Social Payments
291 Automated Credit Risk Modeling
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 292 Crypto Trading Bots
293 Crypto-Mining Malware
Financial Inclusion and

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Serving the Underbanked REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
We must ... ensure that the pace and the push of fintech work to the advantage of the people,
not to their disadvantage. That technology in finance ensures improvement of the human LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
condition through direct contact with the most marginalized.
– India Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at the Singapore FinTech Festival in November 2018
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! versal payments interface, and the result ogy are unlocking enormous opportunities
has been dramatic innovations in digital in mobile payments and remittances.
Financial players are targeting the seg- payments. Amazon, Samsung, Facebook,
ments of the population that are unbanked Financial inclusion is not just about getting
and Google all have UPI-compatible prod-
or underbanked (people with limited users an app. The most successful compa-
ucts. Paytm, an Indian mobile e-commerce
access to financial products). Traditional nies have been able to build products that
company, was recently valued at $10-$12
financial institutions are facing compe- also bridge a knowledge gap and inform
B USD by Berkshire Hathaway. The Center
tition from fintech companies and social and empower users to be more financially
for Financial Inclusion ranks Colombia,
platforms who are integrating payments literate. Lack of financial education will
Peru, and Uruguay as the top three coun-
and other financial features to their continue to be a barrier to people, ex-
tries for financial inclusion (India is ranked
product ecosystem. Financial inclusion is cluding them from financial services and
In 2014 an estimated 2 billion adults did not have at number four). Latin America has a
more than a positive social impact story, systems.
a bank account. surge of fintech companies working on the
it’s a forward-looking customer acquisition region’s most pressing problems, particu- Digital and mobile payments continue to
strategy. larly inflation and remittances. grow with promising pilot programs using
cryptocurrencies for remittances and
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! humanitarian aid.
It’s not just financial services vying to The role of a traditional financial institution
unlock the underbanked. Mega-retailers is changing. In established markets, gig
Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
like Walmart and Alibaba offer financial economy job trends, uncertain geopolitical Center for Financial Inclusion, Ripio, Aflu-
products to customers. LATAM and India conditions, and rising costs of living have enta; Carrefour; Walmart; Falabella; World
are the markets to watch for innovations customers saving less and in some cases Bank; IMF; FICO; Citi; Wells Fargo; USAA;
in financial inclusion. sidestepping banks entirely. In emerging KeyBank; TDBank; JPMorgan Chase; Capital
The Royal Bank of India licenses telcos has markets, internet and cell phone penetra- One; Mastercard; Visa; American Express;
payment banks and has instituted UPI, uni- tion as well as other innovations in technol- mPesa; GoBank.

Open Banking
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
Late in 2018, Robinhood, an online stock-trading platform, began offering checking and VIGILANT
LATER
savings accounts with an interest that is about 30x higher than the national average. It WATCH
has no fees or account minimums. LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! enable third parties to access a custom- disruptive fintech innovators to build
er’s financial data. PSD2 lays the founda- functionality that attracts a critical mass
Financial data is becoming standardized tion for new players to use financial trans- of consumers, which will then trigger large
and interoperable, facilitating access to action data to improve analytics behind incumbents to seek partnerships. Incum-
banking infrastructure and analytics for product development, predictive analytics, bents that are slowest to enable data ac-
third parties. fraud analysis, marketing and a la carte cess to third parties will see attrition from
services being offered by an ecosystem of their customer base as consumers move
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! providers. to providers that give them access to the
Mint.com and other financial aggregators new ecosystems.
use API access to financial data or screen What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! The most successful players will be those
scraping to build their own databases of Regulation will change the ownership who can get access to the richest data and Robinhood started offering checking and
their customers’ financial transactions. structures of financial data. We expect to are most effective at productizing data savings accounts with no fees or account mini-
Using this information, fintech providers see more banks publishing open banking driven insights, likely through personalized mums in 2018.
can give consumers a holistic view of their APIs in 2019. Interoperability will make marketing and operating efficiencies, such
finances across multiple banks and types it easier for customers to aggregate as reducing fraud and chargeback rates.
of assets. The rich financial data generat- finances and choose a la carte services
ed is often used for marketing purposes by from various providers that best suit their Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
suggesting that their products may meet needs. There will be increased activity of
the needs of the consumer more than their Mastercard; Visa; American Express;
fintech’s and partnerships among incum- CITI; BBVA; Banco Santander; HSBC; Wells
existing products. bent players as incumbents seek to stay Fargo; Lloyds; Intuit; Square; iZettle; N26;
The European regulation known as Pay- current and drive customer preference Fidor; Klarna; Monzo; Plum; Bean; Exeq;
ment Service Directive Two (PSD2 ) went through services offered. We expect Clear.
into effect in 2018 and requires banks to
328
TREND 290 Tenth year on the list
Social Payments
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! privacy concerns, frauds, and scams. In

India, Facebook’s WhatsApp Payments
Late in 2018, Amazon was working to The most advanced players seek to embed has had trouble getting approval from
shift Amazon Pay from the digital-only the functionality as seamlessly as possible the country’s regulators to move past its
space into physical, brick-and-mortar gas into existing customer experiences, includ- testing phase of 1 million users and expand
stations and restaurants. The move coin- ing chat applications. WeChat and Alipay the service to its 200 million users in the
cided with a rollout of new cashless (and are significant players in the Chinese region.
cashierless) Amazon Go Stores. While mobile payments space due to their highly
Amazon’s system is new, the digital wallet developed network of merchants that Focusing on customer experience is key.
model isn’t—and consumers are finding accept chat-based payments, blurring the This should lead to a period of expansion,
convenience preferable to traditional point lines between sending money to a friend where multiple fragmented platforms and
WeChat Pay is quickly becoming a preferred
of service transactions. vs. sending money to a store. services will be accepted for specific use
method of payment in China. cases. Partnerships will eventually begin
Venmo launched nine years ago as one of Facebook launched a blockchain research to coalesce, driven by primary relation-
the first social payment apps in the US. group in May 2018. The company has filed ship holders, price and strength of the
Users could add emoji in the comments of more than a dozen patents related to network ... for example, Android Pay and
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! their transactions and share publicly who digital currency since 2007 but has yet to Google Wallet merging into Google Pay. It
they were transacting with. China-based release a digital currency product. Face- is additionally worth noting that as social
Financial service and payment providers AliPay launched 14 years ago and now has book’s payments products include Messen-
are tapping into social interactions as a payment networks increase in popularity
amassed more than 700 million active us- ger Payments and WhatsApp Payments. and scale, they will become more vulnera-
driver of preference for financial services. ers. Through its financial partner, Ant Fi- Facebook is desperate to find alternative
As social payment offerings grow more ble to hackers and fraud.
nancial, users get much more than emojis, revenue streams beyond advertising and
robust, millennials may opt out of tradition- they have access to wealth management social payments may be a viable option.
al banking services entirely. Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
services, loans, and credit scores. However, government regulation for all
major tech companies has become more Apple; Google; Amazon; Microsoft; Face-
stringent in the wake of data breaches, book; PayPal; WeChat; Alibaba; Mastercard;
Visa; Ingenico; Citibank; BBVA; Zelle; Exeq.

TREND 291 - 293
More Financial Tech Trends INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
291 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 292 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 293 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Automated Credit Risk Modeling Crypto Trading Bots Crypto-Mining Malware
Artificial intelligence is being leveraged to Investing in cryptocurrencies isn’t for the In 2018 there was a 4,000% increase
automate credit risk modeling within big weak-stomached. With significant volatility in instances of crypto-mining malware,
banks. Startup Spin Analytics readies data and complicated technical workflows, it according to research from McAfee Labs.
first and then runs models as needed. It’s can be difficult to trade cryptos. Trad- Hackers most often gained access to com-
one example of AI-powered automated ing bots are being deployed to monitor puters by hiding cryptocurrency mining
credit risk modeling services being tested the markets 24/7, since unlike the stock software in what appeared to be legiti-
at banks like BBVA and Crédit Agricole. It’s market they never close. Send instructions mate, mundane software updates from
also being studied by central banks. to the bot and it will perform until you places like Microsoft and Adobe. Once a
In 2019, crypto-mining malware will shift focus
instruct otherwise. But as we’ve seen in machine got infected, it used its computing
away from ransomware.
other places, bots can be glitchy. resources to mine for currency on behalf
of the hacker. We’ll likely continue to see
crypto-mining malware spread in 2019.
330
18
SMART CITIES
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
294 Ranking the World’s Smartest Cities
295 Smart City Initiatives
296 City-Level Cyber Security
297 5G: Private Networks and China’s Influence
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TREND 294 SECOND YEAR ON THE LIST
Ranking the World’s

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Smartest Cities REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
This is the second year we’ve researched and generated a smart cities list, and our
goal is to showcase examples of exemplary, innovative leadership around the world.
! Abundant 4G (and soon 5G) connectivity ! Tech-forward public transit systems

What makes a city “smart?” that are optimized for all citizens
! The availability of public wifi hotspots
In 2016, 78 cities applied for the US Department of Transportation’s ! The availability of ride sharing services
! The use of smart grids for traffic and (including various forms of transpor-
“Smart City” challenge, which would award the winner $40 million in electricity tation)
federal grant money to upgrade their urban transit systems. DoT select-
ed Columbus, Ohio, as the winner for its proposal to deploy self-driving ! City-sponsored incentives for smart ! The number of public-private tech and
buildings science partnerships that benefit all
electric shuttles, launch smart cards to provide free car-sharing ser-
income levels
vices, and develop a connected traffic light system to reduce traffic ! Accessible, digitized government data
jams throughout the city. The City of Melbourne (Australia) has launched that is open to all ! Dedicated environmental protections
a Smart City Office, which includes open data projects, a 24-hour pedes- for the present and future of the city
! The availability of anonymized citizen
trian counting system and city-wide free public WiFi. data that is digitized, structured and ! City initiatives to reduce waste
accessible
Public-private partnerships, affordable technology, long-term urban and ! The availability of affordable clean
budget planning, and equal access to all citizens are just a few things ! Dedicated high-ranking positions in energy options
government dedicated to technology
that make cities smart. Here’s a more complete list of the criteria we
and science ! Dedication to long-term urban planning
used to rate the world’s smartest cities:
! The number and influence of community
leaders who are experts in tech
! The number of cybersecurity offices,

departments and staff dedicated to
proactive monitoring and continuous
learning

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Smart Cities 2019 Ranking
01. Copenhagen, Denmark 10. Strasbourg, France 19. Seoul, South Korea 28. Yinchuan, China 37. Nice, France 46. Chicago, USA
02. Gothenburg, Sweden 11. Melbourne, Australia 20. San Francisco, USA 29. Hangzhou, China 38. Reykjavik, Iceland 47. Munich, Germany
03. Oslo, Norway 12. Singapore 21. Wuxi, China 30. Perugia, Italy 39. Barcelona, Spain 48. Toronto, Canada
04. Bergen, Norway 13. Vantaa, Finland 22. Boston, USA 31. New York City, USA 40. Osaka, Japan 49. Bordeaux, France
05. Odense, Denmark 14. Amsterdam, Netherlands 23. London, United Kingdom 32. Vancouver, Canada 41. Abu Dhabi, UAE 50. Bhubaneswar, India
06. Stockholm, Sweden 15. Zurich, Switzerland 24. Tokyo, Japan 33. Helsinki, Finland 42. Doha, Qatar
07. Turku, Finland 16. Utrecht, Netherlands 25. Montreal, Canada 34. Hamburg, Germany 43. Hong Kong, China
08. Aalborg, Denmark 17. Berlin, Germany 26. Tallinn, Estonia 35. Luxembourg 44. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
09. Jyväskylä, Finland 18. Dubai, UAE 27. Tel Aviv, Israel 36. Portland, USA 45. Shanghai, China
334
TREND 294 second YEAR ON THE LIST
Methodology
Sources for this study include data collected from:

Municipal authority publications, including city, regional and national data; city and nation-
al census data; the World Health Organization; municipal energy departments; Numbeo;
municipal strategic vision documents and press releases; United Nations reports; Euro-
pean Commission reports; Pew Research Center data; TomTom Traffic index; Internation-
al Energy Statistics reports; the European Digital City Index; the Online Speed Test Global
Index; municipal websites.
Smart Cities ranking methodology:

We researched and analyzed 100 cities for the 2019 study. Cities without easily accessi-
ble data were not considered. We developed a model using 16 key performance indicators
(on the previous page).
Assumptions in our model:

! Data were not adjusted according to regional or local cultural differences.
! Where city specific data for certain indicators were not available, regional or national
data were used instead.
Using our model to calculate the ranking:

We weighted each of the 16 indicators equally to calculate raw scores. Those scores
were ranked from top-performing to lowest-performing, based on available data.

Smart City Initiatives

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
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By 2050, there will be more citizens living Globally, the market for smart city projects Local city and town agencies; local
in cities than in rural areas by a ratio of could increase to more than $1 trillion by business leaders; local universities and
2:1. As the Internet of Things ecosystem 2025, which means multinational partner- colleges; Congress; European Union.
matures, there will be new opportunities ships as well as public-private partner-
for city managers to manage infrastruc- ships. In cities throughout the US, univer-
ture, traffic and daily living. sities are starting to partner with city
councils on a wide range of experiments.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! The Argonne National Laboratory and the
University of Washington are deploying a
Vietnam, Indonesia and Myanmar launched
variety of sensors around Seattle to im- The market for smart city projects could in-
smart city partnerships with Japan, which
prove hyper-local weather forecasting due crease to more than $1 trillion by 2025.
has pledged to help Southeast Asian cities
to climate change.
ease traffic congestion, introduce cash-
less payments and harness environmental
data to improve the quality of life. It’s
an alternative to China’s Belt and Road
infrastructure initiative, which is dedicat-
ing billions of dollars in loans for various
projects to help modernize its partner
countries.
336
City-Level Cyber Security

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
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Key Insight !!!!!!!!! trained experts to safeguard systems and

train employees on how to avoid attacks.
Historically, cybersecurity hasn’t been a
top priority for municipalities. However as What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Scenario !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! more local government services moving
online, municipal managers are investing There is a significant talent shortage—
those who have the right skills set and
Landscrapers are on the horizon. in new technologies and better policies to
protect against attacks. experience tend to take much higher-pay-
ing jobs in the private sector. As a result,
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! cities will need to carve out enough budget
In the future, architects may choose to build laterally, rather
to pay for staff. Another avenue being
than vertically. Advancements in the technology that moves In 2018, the City of Atlanta was targeted tested in some cities is public private
elevators now allow them to move omnidirectionally. Given by hackers, and for nearly a week resi- partnerships. They’ll need to do it quickly:
dents could not pay their water bills or
what we know to be true about extreme weather and climate cybercrime won’t wait for local city and
traffic tickets online, police officers had town budgets to pass.
change, it’s plausible that economic centers will move inland to write and submit warrants by hand, and
from the coasts, and that landscrapers will become more travelers to the world’s busiest airport Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
mainstream over the next 20 years. Spanning massive areas had no access to free WiFi. A year earlier,
hackers breached the emergency manage- Local city and town agencies; local
the size of several football fields, these new buildings would be business leaders; local universities and
ment system for the City of Dallas and set
able to withstand high winds and temperature changes. They off tornado sirens. These weren’t ca- colleges.
will create entirely new city footprints we haven’t seen before tastrophes, but the breach did portend se-
in the US. rious challenges to come. That’s because
clever bands of hackers know that local
governments don’t have formal cyberse-
–Amy Webb curity policies—and few employ enough

5G: Private Networks

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
and China’s Influence REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! The China Problem ! ! ! ! ! ! collaborative robots, which will shorten
transmission latency from 30 milliseconds
5G trials, supported by the Federal Com- While major carriers have been touting 5G Equipment manufactured by Chinese tele-
to just a single millisecond, allowing essen-
munications Commission and the Europe- networks, racing to convince consumers communications and internet companies
tially instantaneous connectivity between
an Union, are underway around the world. that they are first to market with the next is considered a threat by the FCC, and in
devices on a network. Unlike WiFi, a private
generation of connectivity, it will still be 2018 congress passed a prohibition on
5G network can be built to prioritize cer-
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! a while before we see real 5G networks, government agencies buying Chinese com-
tain data transmissions over others.
products and services roll out nationwide ponents or services. Huawei and ZTE are
5G is the fifth generation of wireless in the US In October 2018, Verizon did both viewed as dangerous, as regulators
technology. We had 1G in the early 1990s launch a home broadband service, however worry that backdoors or malware could be
Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
and 2G in the late 90s, which enabled Federal Communications Commission;
it was based on its own proprietary stan- used for surveillance by the Chinese gov-
us to send text messages between two European Union; China; Japan; wireless
dards. AT&T launched a standards-based ernment. Huawei is the only company in the
mobile devices. 3G supported our ability to carriers worldwide.
5G network in a dozen cities in December world right now that makes the end-to-end
browse the internet. Now, with 4G, we’re 2018, but there are no 5G phones yet – so supply chain to build 5G networks. At the
able to download and upload large videos. instead, the network was compatible only moment, the US is lagging behind.
5G will dramatically increase the speeds at with Netgear’s Nighthawk mobile hotspot.
which we connect—we’ll be able to pull HD It also rebranded its 4G LTE network as Private 5G Networks Will
and 3D video and use VR in the cloud, since 5G E – the “E” stands for “evolution,” and Come First ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
download speeds will hover around 10 AT&T intended to imply that the company is
gigabits per second, which will be a boon Before we see 5G nationwide (or even
moving in the direction of 5G, rather than
for news organizations that distribute citywide), we’re more likely to see the
offering it to mobile phones right now.
video content. But it isn’t just our phones proliferation of private 5G networks inside
that will use the connection: driverless factories and warehouses. In 2019, we are
cars, smart cities, and smart grids will all likely to see some larger companies imple-
rely on 5G. ment 5G to manage their autonomous and
338
19
GOVERNMENT AND
TECHNOLOGY POLICY
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
298 Splinternets
299 US and Global Election Security
300 Trying To Regulate Big Tech
301 Multilateral Science and Technology Acts
302 Anti-Trust Lawsuits
303 Old Laws Clash With New Technology
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
304 Governments Asking Tech Companies To Help Fight the
Spread of Misinformation, Propaganda and Terrorism
305 Overhauling Government Tech Infrastructure
Splinternets
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! norms and regulations that is recognized Without coordinated effort, splinternets
by everyone using the internet. In the past will continue to proliferate in the years
Twenty years ago, the internet emerged as decade, countries in Europe fought ISPs ahead. This could make disseminating
a global space where information wanted and search providers such as Google and quality journalism more difficult in regions
to be free. Now, everyone has a different Yahoo in court and successfully banned around the world. But it could also cause
idea of how our global information su- content on a country-by-country basis. tremendous headaches for news organi-
perhighway ought to be regulated, and by Citizens in countries where free speech zations who distribute—and monetize—con-
whom. As a result, we are headed towards isn’t valued could find their version of the tent for a global audience.
a fragmented “splinternet” in the future. internet without a digital outlet for watch-
dog journalism. Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
In 2018 we witnessed widespread splinternets. European Union; Google; Facebook; Baidu;
When the GDPR launched in May 2018, What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Twitter; Amazon; Microsoft; Netflix; Apple;
hundreds of legitimate news sites were Compliance is going to become more Federal Communications Commission.
blocked worldwide. We can already see and more difficult for companies who do
that the internet looks and behaves dif- business in more than one location, which
ferently depending on geography. Some could stifle growth and restrict the flow of
jurisdictions are now considering data meaningful, credible information.
localization laws.
The companies involved have maintained
Search is controlled by a small number of that they’re “just technology platforms,”
American companies—there is no United however their strictly defined roles as
Nations or other international organization arbiters of information will be tested in
with any power to establish standards, courts in the coming years.

US and Global Election

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Security REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! election. Threats to the integrity of our
elections could elevate this to a national
It is now clear that Russia interfered with In January 2019, House Democrats in- security issue, and could signal a federal
elections around the world during 2016 troduced new election security members takeover of state and local elections.
and 2017. As the Future Today Institute as part of the For the People Act, which
forecast in previous editions of our report, mandates that states revert to using Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
congress has introduced sweeping mea- paper ballots in elections, which must be
sures to safeguard election security. hand-counted or counted using optical Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project;
character recognition. It will also authorize Presidential Commission on Election Ad-
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! the Election Assistance Commission to ministration; National Conference of State
support smaller districts with grants to Legislatures; Department of Homeland
It’s now clear that Russia meddled in the Security; National Security Agency; Central It’s now clear that Russia meddled in the 2016
upgrade their systems, and it also tasks
2016 US election. This included pilfering Intelligence Agency; Russia. US election.
the Department of Homeland Security
local and national election databases, ham-
to run a security and threat assessment
pering the registration operation in dis-
audit ahead of all future elections. The bill
tricts around the country, and deliberately
will still need a vote and funding for imple-
spreading false or misleading information
mentation, but it’s a sign that our elections
to target political candidates. We made it
systems are now in transition. It will still
easy for hackers to break in. During the
take significantly more funding, better
2016 election, 43 states used electric
technology, sweeping changes to polling
voting machines that were perilously out
station training programs, and scores of
of date.
security experts to shore up our nation’s
elections infrastructure before the 2020
342
Trying To Regulate Big Tech

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! vote was 7-2) under pressure from Ama- Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
zon. In the UK, there are plans for a digital
In the wake of privacy and security scan- tax of 2% on revenue earned within the America’s part of the Big Nine: Amazon,
dals that plagued America’s part of the Big UK, as retaliation against big tech compa- Google, Microsoft, IBM, Facebook, Apple;
Nine in 2018, governments will attempt to nies who domicile huge stores of cash in Netflix; Salesforce; Congress; Federal
regulate tech companies this year. Ireland. The EU had a similar tax proposal Trade Commission; Better Business Bu-
which has yet to find support, however reau; Senator Mark Warner; governments
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! India and South Korea are now working on around the world.
There are a number of taxes already pro- national versions that can be implemented
posed in the US and Europe. Late in 2018, locally.
City Council members voted on a controversial a San Francisco passed a controversial
“head tax” in Seattle. homeless tax called Proposition C, which What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
taxes the city’s largest companies in an This year you can expect to see many new
effort to offset steep housing prices and proposals that would regulate big tech in
homelessness. Companies earning more numerous ways that involve privacy, trans-
than $50 million in annual revenue now parency and big tech relationships with
owe more in city taxes. Local lawmakers China and Russia. Whether all that talk
had proposed a “head tax” in Seattle, will lead to action is still unclear, however
which would have amounted to $275 per big tech firms will spend much more time
employee at companies earning more than having to work on government and public
$20 million a year. While the Seattle City affairs than in the past. It’ll be an expen-
Council unanimously passed the ordinance, sive, time-consuming process.
a month later they voted to repeal it (the

Multilateral Science
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
and Technology Acts REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH

With debates about the future of CRIS- Now that many fields of science and tech- United Nations; American Association for
PR, ocean plastics, climate, autonomous nology have started to produce striking the Advancement of Science; UNESCO;
vehicles, AI and space exploration reaching new developments, lawmakers, research- International Union of Biological Scienc-
fever pitch, there will be new multilateral ers and ethicists are calling for some kind es; International Social Science Council;
science and technology acts proposed. of consensus – and international delib- Canada’s Office of Planning and Research;
erations that could lead to international governments worldwide.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! treaties and protocols.
After it was revealed that a pair of ge-
netically engineered twin girls was born Lawmakers, researchers and ethicists are
in China, some are wondering whether calling for international consensus.
international norms are enough.
344
Anti-Trust Lawsuits
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! In the EU, the argument against big tech continues to build digital payments, logis-
has found more traction. In 2017, the EU tics and package delivery infrastructure, it
Antitrust laws exist around the world. They fined Google a record-breaking $2.7 billion could indirectly crush other retailers who
exist to ensure and promote fair competi- for what adjudicators said was illegally don’t also use its platform. But that still
tion between companies for the benefit of nudging users to its comparison shopping wouldn’t be illegal. At the moment, we don’t
consumers. As media and technology com- site rather than to the online retailers have any laws against being really, really
panies consolidate in 2019, there will likely themselves. In September 2018, the EU’s smart.
be a number of new antitrust suits brought Competition Commissioner Margrethe
in an effort to thwart monopolies. Vestager began an investigation into how Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Amazon uses customer data. Earlier in the
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! American Big Nine companies: Amazon;
year, she fined Google $5 billion for anti-
Big tech companies have enormous footprints, Google; Apple; Facebook; IBM, Microsoft;
There is some debate in the US regarding trust infractions having to do with Android.
and they could see new antitrust suits in 2019. Netflix; Alibaba; Baidu; Tencent; Depart-
the Sherman Act, which was originally ment of Justice; Federal Trade Commis-
written to regulate and break apart rail- What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! sion; EU, governments worldwide.
road and oil tycoons, who had built Amer- The problem with existing antitrust laws
ica’s biggest monopolies. What US courts is that they don’t always mesh with our
have yet to decide is whether America’s ever-evolving business landscape. For ex-
part of the Big Nine and other big tech ample, Amazon recently acquired Zappos,
companies are indeed monopolies, which Diapers.com and Whole Foods. Together,
would trigger the Act’s application. So far, all three give the company a much larger
the big tech companies have argued that retail footprint, but individually, each ac-
there is plenty of competition – if people quisition doesn’t amount to unfair compe-
don’t want to use Facebook, there are lots tition. (It’s not the same as Walmart buying
of other social media companies they can Publix and Safeway.) However, as Amazon
use instead.

Old Laws Clash With

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
New Technology REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Every time that coworker Facebooks an What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
inspirational message she found online,
Technology is now moving faster than any she’s technically breaking the law. The In a democracy, new policies and laws re-
government’s ability to legislate it. As a CFAA was used to threaten internet activ- quire discussion, debate and various parts
result, countries around the world are ist Aaron Swartz with 35 years in prison of a government to collaborate. It’s a slow
learning the hard way what happens when and $1 million in fines for allegedly stealing process by design, but that doesn’t mean
old laws clash with new technology. a trove of academic papers with the intent we should avoid any action until there’s a
of making them available freely to the pub- real crisis. Without meaningful discussion
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! lic—he later committed suicide. about the long-range implications of leg-
islation, lawmakers could cause drastic (if
In the US, the Computer Fraud and Abuse In the US, we have plenty of policy ques- untended) consequences for their constit-
Act (CFAA) was enacted shortly after tions, but few answers. We only have In WarGames, Matthew Broderick played a
uents in the decades to come.
lawmakers showed a clip of the 1984 the existing democratic instruments of hacker who brought the US and former Soviet
movie WarGames during testimony—it was change: patents, regulation, legislation, Union to the brink of nuclear war.
an iconic scene about the brink of nuclear Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
and lawsuits. And society is trusting our
war with Matthew Broderick, as a teen- lawmakers, political appointees, and agen- Government agencies; business leaders;
age hacker. The CFAA’s broad language cy heads to apply those instruments to legal scholars; law enforcement; technolo-
makes it illegal to break a website’s terms technologies that could literally change the gy and privacy advocates; media organiza-
of service (TOS). But these days, most future of humanity. tions; everyday citizens.
of us break the TOS of the websites and
services we use without even realizing it.
346
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
New policy questions we need to ask in 2019
How should we define privacy in a Can bots break the law? Can your Fitbit plead the Fifth?
digital era? If a digital assistant or bot breaks a law without Does the Fifth Amendment mean that wearables—our
Can law enforcement agencies use the Fourth your direct involvement—automatically purchasing fitness trackers, connected bras, smart watches—
Amendment to compel a company to jailbreak a illegal drugs, or using hate speech against another can’t be used to self-incriminate us in court?
device? If citizens use spatial computing systems person—who’s to blame? You? The individual develop-
in their homes, are the data generated by walls and ers who created the assistant or bot’s code? Or the
Do anti-slavery protections extend to
physical spaces governed by privacy rights? technology company that built the platform?
Alexa?
Our Thirteenth Amendment declares that “neither
Who owns your biology?
Can government force big tech com- slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a pun-
You are shedding biometric data every day, either in- ishment for crime whereof the party shall have been
panies to make AI explainable?
tentionally or unwittingly. Every time you speak to Al- duly convicted, shall exist within the United States,
Should systems carry something akin to a nutrition- exa, use your fingerprint or face to unlock a device, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.” It doesn’t
al label, detailing the training data used, the pro- or allow a photo to be automatically tagged when you specifically reference humans. Do anti-slavery pro-
cesses used for learning, the real-world data being upload it to social media, you are voluntarily sharing tections extend to our artificially intelligent agents?
used in applications and the expected outcomes? your bioinformation with for-profit companies. What
For sensitive or proprietary systems, should trust- legal right do they have to change end-user agree-
ed third parties be able to assess and verify an AI’s ments? Who is the ultimate legal guardian of that
transparency? data? Can a company take ownership of your DNA
and other biodata forever? Can it be given the per-
petual, royalty-free worldwide license to our data?

Governments Asking Tech Companies To INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Help Fight the Spread of Misinformation, KEEP
REVISIT
Propaganda and Terrorism LATER
VIGILANT
WATCH

It may seem counterintuitive, given that YouTube, WhatsApp and Twitter all prom- Government agencies; technology company
there is so much talk of regulating big tech ised in 2018 to introduce new measures to leaders; legal scholars; law enforcement;
in 2019, but government agencies world- combat the spread of conspiracy theories, technology and privacy advocates; media
wide are expecting tech companies to help false information and bots that are built to organizations; everyday citizens.
fight against the spread of misinformation, intentionally confuse people. While lawmak-
propaganda and terrorism. ers have demanded action, they continue
to struggle balancing tensions between
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! censorship, free enterprise and national
security. The questions—and answers—are
Throughout 2018 there were several heat- Facebook, Google and Twitter have testified in
complicated, and they involve all of us.
ed Congressional committee hearings with Congress several times.
This year, we will see two things happen:
representatives from Twitter, Google and
governments will both ask big tech for help
Facebook. Committee members demanded
and, at times, threaten them if no changes
that the tech companies admit to platform
are made. Whether or not big tech can be
failures and their role in helping to spread
compelled to play nice is still a legal grey
misinformation during the 2016 election
area. Better to debate policy and proce-
cycle.
dure in advance, so that decisions don’t
have to be made under duress.
348
Overhauling Government
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Tech Infrastructure REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! The GAO report included a sobering Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

technology audit. It found that the State
Parts of the federal government rely on Department uses a 26-year-old system to Federal Chief Information Officer; Office
comically old technology, which is very track visa information for 55,000 foreign of Science and Technology Policy; Govern-
difficult to maintain. Overhauling the infra- nationals—software that was decommis- ment Accountability Office; Department of
structure has bipartisan appeal. sioned by the vendor who built it. Defense; IRS; State Department; Depart-
ment of Transportation; Department of
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Justice; Department of Health and Human
Services; the FCC; Department of Housing
In 2017, President Donald Trump signed In a perplexing about-face, President and Urban Development; Department of
an executive order to modernize the US Trump acknowledged that government Energy; Department of Homeland Security;
President Donald Trump signed an executive government. To kick off the process, he systems need to be overhauled—but then Environmental Protection Agency; Office of
order to modernize the US government. invited 20 tech CEOs to the White House didn’t name key advisors who would have Management and Budget; elected officials
to discuss how to make the transition. The the authority to make needed changes. The and lawmakers.
idea of overhauling government IT didn’t problem isn’t just about legacy systems—
start with the Trump White House. Presi- it’s about keeping pace with the chang-
dent Barack Obama created the US Digital ing nature of technology. Old software,
Service to attract tech sector experts to machines and systems are expensive to
federal jobs and to fix the broken system maintain. Plus, there aren’t many techni-
from within. There’s a financial incentive to cians who have enough institutional knowl-
do so: a 2016 Government Accountability edge to make the necessary fixes, which
Office (GAO) report estimated that we means re-hiring retired employees at high
spend $80 billion annually on IT because contract wages. Legacy systems are also
of obsolete technologies and sweeping vulnerable to attack.
inefficiencies.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Strategic Guidance: The Case For Renaming and Repositioning

Executive Departments in the US Government.
The Department of Commerce was established in 1931, well before we had computers, The case for reinstating the Office of Technology Assessment
robots, autonomous vehicles or artificial intelligence. It’s primary task: to oversee
Years ago, the now-shuttered Office of Technology Assessment was charged with re-
job creation and promote economic growth. More than a century later, the Commerce
searching, forecasting and advising Congress on matters of emerging technology. During
Department has morphed into a division of government that manages statistics
its existence, the OTA released more than 750 prescient studies ranging from robots in
and data, and not just for business. It oversees the National Oceanic Atmospheric
the workplace, to bioterrorism, to acid rain and climate change. The OTA was defunded
Administration (NOAA), the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the
by Congress in 1995, and it was a mistake. We are building and deploying new technolo-
Patent and Trademark Office. The Labor Department oversees the Bureau of Labor
gies at an unprecedented rate. For the first time in our country’s history, advancements
Statistics (BLS) but doesn’t routinely update the jobs listed so that they reflect our
in science and technology have outpaced our lawmakers’ ability to respond in measured
changing workforce.
and responsible ways.
As we transition into new areas of technology and science that will forever shape
the course of human history, we should think about updating our federal agencies
and restructuring them to better meet the future needs of American citizens. This
The case for creating a new Department of the Future
isn’t just about a name change. It is about more accurately describing what the 15 A Department of the Future should advise our nation’s top leaders and policymakers on
executive departments in the US government do today, and what they must accom- the social, economic and geopolitical implications of emerging science and technology—as
plish in the years to come. those implications relate to all other departments, agencies and offices within the gov-
ernment. The office would coordinate research, lead scenario mapping and long-range
We must also reinstate a previous office and create a new executive department in planning. And it would ask and answer difficult legal and policy questions about the future
order to best prepare for the future. of biotechnology, artificial intelligence, autonomous travel, digital divides, renewable
energy, space exploration and beyond.
Current Department Proposed Change

Department of Agriculture Department of Basic Sciences
Department of Commerce Department of Data
Department of Education Department of Education and

Workforce Development
Department of Energy Department of Advanced Sciences
Department of Homeland Security Department of Cybersecurity
350
20
SPACE
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
306 Space Tourism
307 Commercial Space Programs
308 MicroSats and CubeSats
309 Galactic Ride Sharing
310 Mercury Problems
311 China’s Space Ambitions
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
312 Asteroid Mining For Resources
313 Going Where We’ve Never Gone Before
314 Bigger, Bolder Telescopes
315 Moon Rush
Space Tourism
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! are already underway at both SpaceX and and back is currently set at three years.
Boeing as part of NASA’s Commercial Getting to and from the Moon is easier—
Commercial crew test launches for com- Crew Program. They are planning to man- just one week round trip—but still chal-
mercial space flight are now underway, age six crew missions to the International lenging. Travelers would have to contend
which will help usher in a new era of space Space Station between 2019 and 2024. with something called “space adaptation
tourism. Blue Origin, founded by Amazon CEO Jeff syndrome” (like car sickness—but a lot
Bezos, also has a program in the works – worse) and elevated levels of radiation.
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! the company has promised space tourist One nine-day mission to the Moon would
In December 2018, Virgin Galactic suc- flights this year. Meanwhile, Musk has said result in radiation exposure equivalent to
cessfully launched human crew 51 miles that he plans to take humans to Mars by 35 chest x-rays.
A camera on Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo into the sky over the Mojave Desert in Cali- 2024.
VSS Unity captured this view of the Earth from fornia. Two pilots, Mark Stucky and former Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
just over 51 miles (82.7 kilometers) up during NASA astronaut Rick Sturckow earned What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! NASA; Amazon; Boeing; European Space
a test launch on Dec. 13, 2018 from Mojave Air the first ever commercial astronaut wings Not everyone is suited for space flight. Agency; Indian Space Research Orga-
and Space Port in California. It was Virgin Galac- from the Federal Aviation Administration. Carl Sagan wrote about the “Overview nization; Virgin Galactic; SpaceX; China
tic’s first trip to space. As of the publication of this report, more Effect” in his book Pale Blue Dot: “Our National Space Administration; DARPA;
than 600 people had pledged $250,000 planet is a lonely speck in the great envel- Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic (The
Credit: Virgin Galactic
each to take a ride aboard Virgin Galactic. oping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all Spaceship Company); XCOR Aerospace;
In January 2019, preparations were un- this vastness, there is no hint that help Interorbital Systems; Stratolaunch; Masten
derway for the first commercial crew test will come from elsewhere to save us from Space Systems; Lockheed Martin; Northrop
flight at SpaceX. The launch, considered ourselves.” Grumman; Planetary Resources and many
dangerous, would go beyond Virgin’s 52 There are practical limitations, too: the more.
miles. Plans for commercial space flight estimated travel time for a trip to Mars

Commercial Space
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Programs REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH

New spacecraft, rockets and other tech- In 2019 there are lots of planned experi- NASA; ViaSat; Inmarsat; Toray; Hexcele;
nologies are helping privacy commercial ments and launches, and we expect to see Ball; XL Group; Lancashire Holdings; Bank
companies to achieve liftoff – with plenty more investment into commercial space of America; Morgan Stanley; Amazon; Boe-
of eager investors footing the bill. companies, especially in the areas of ing; European Space Agency; Indian Space
insurance, satellites, defense, aerospace Research Organization; Virgin Galactic;
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! technologies and materials (manufacturing SpaceX; China National Space Administra-
and mining). tion; DARPA; Lockheed Martin; Northrop
Investors, including Morgan Stanley, are
Grumman; Planetary Resources and many
eyeing a new space gold rush, now that a
more.
critical mass of commercial space compa- SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket has successfully
nies and their technologies have matured launched and landed.
enough to move beyond proof of concept
into testing. In 2018, NASA announced that
it was partnering with nine commercial
companies for a variety of projects includ-
ing exploring the moon’s mineral sources.
Some estimates put the projected growth
of the space economy to more than $1
trillion in the next two decades.
354
MicroSats and CubeSats

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! same with a competitor’s parking lots to than an iPhone — because the agency was LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
gather strategic intelligence. Mining com- worried that they’d be difficult to detect
Entrepreneurs are building and preparing
panies can survey a swath of land to see and monitor from the ground.
to launch thousands of low-cost, high-value
who’s started drilling and whether they’ve
satellites in the next year. These satellites
are small, capable of communicating with
struck oil. Satellites monitor traffic, polar What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
tary Resources; Airbus D&S; DigitalGlobe;
ice caps, and even us. Unlike a traditional, Swarm is still on a mission to launch
each other, and will photograph every inch National Geospatial Intelligence Agency; 3
large satellite, when one CubeSats goes hundreds of its own CubeSats. Yet another
of Earth’s surface every day of the year. Gimbals; Space Exploration Technologies
offline or gets damaged, the rest of the company, Rocket Lab, launched more than Corp; Orbital Insight; Google; SpaceKnow;
fleet still works. a dozen CubeSats in partnership with
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Capella Space Inc; OneWeb; SpacePharma;
Near-real time images, coupled with NASA. We are expecting to see unprece- Santa Clara University; Technische Univer-
Miniature satellites, otherwise known
machine learning and analysis tools, is dented growth, especially as capabilities sitat Berlin; Tokyo Institute of Technology;
as MicroSats or CubeSats, aren’t new
big business. Governments, big agricul- of CubeSats grow in strategic utility. University of Tokyo; California Polytechnic
technology. They’ve actually been in use
tural corporations, intelligence agencies, There are more than 3,500 MicroSats and University; Cornell University; Boeing;
by space agencies for years. What’s
shipping companies and logistics firms all CubeSats scheduled for launch during the Delft University of Technology; NASA Ames
changing is the launch technology that
want access, so they’re willing to pay tens next few years – and that doesn’t include Research Center; Transcelestial; NSL-
lifts CubeSats into orbit — and the number
of millions of dollars a year for access. The satellites that are part of larger constella- Comm; Earthcube; Aerial & Maritime; Fleet
launching into space. Heavy investment
combined valuation of companies such as tion systems. Elon Musk’s SpaceX won FCC Space; Astrocast; Kepler Communications;
into propulsion systems—not to mention
Planet, Airbus D&S, MDA and DigitalGlobe approval to deploy 7,518 satellites to its GeoOptics; Hera Systems; Sky and Space
significant advancements in technology
is well into the tens of billions. Starlink communications constellation. Global; Astro Digital; Kanagawa University;
and cheaper components—are making it
easier to mass-produce tiny satellites in But those hoping to launch CubeSats still CubeSats and image analysis will help us The Aerospace Corporation; Los Alamos
a factory and launch them for a variety of need permission — and they don’t always better understand the pulse of our cities, National Labratory; NRL Naval Center for
purposes. Fleets of CubeSats now take get it. Last year, Silicon Valley start- gain a deeper view into weather events Space; Space and Missile Defense Com-
photos of farmland and beam them back up Swarm Technologies launched four and even dive into criminal activity. But that mand; Satellogic; Spire; US Air Force;
down to earth to help farmers assess their CubsSats without first gaining the official goes both ways. CubeSats could become a Lawrence Livermore National Labratory;
crops. Image analysis software can tell approvals, which resulted in an FCC fine national security liability. MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace Donganghong;
big box retailers, such as Walmart, how of $900,000. Before that, Swarm Technol- National University of Defense Technology
many cars are parked in their lots and look ogies failed to get FCC approval to launch Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! (China); Shanghai Engineering Center for
for trends over time. They can then do the tiny satellites – each smaller and lighter Microsatellites (China); SRI International;
Space Systems Loral; MDA; Planet; Plane-
Naval Postgraduate School.

Galactic Ride Sharing

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!! a self-inflating sculpture that reflects NRL Naval Center for Space; Space and
sunlight and can be viewed by the naked Missile Defense Command; US Air Force;
New technologies have spawned a new
eye here on earth. Yet another craft, the Lawrence Livermore National Labratory;
trend in space transportation: galactic ride
Elysium Star 2 sent by Elysium Space, MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace Donganghong;
sharing.
contained the cremated remains of people National University of Defense Technology
who wanted to become shooting stars. (China); Shanghai Engineering Center for
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Microsatellites (China); SRI International;
Galactic ride sharing as a service business What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Naval Postgraduate School.
models launching. In 2018. Spaceflight
As more researchers, artists and every-
Industries launched its first rideshare
day people need to hitch rides on a rocket,
mission called SSO-A SmallSat Express Spaceflight Industries launched its first mission
we anticipate new business models—and
aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9. The compa- last year.
potential regulation.
ny purchased all of the available payload
space on the rocket to service customers
who wanted to launch things into space. It
Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
included MicroSats and CubeSats from 17 SpaceX; NASA; National Geospatial Intel-
countries—but there were some unusual ligence Agency; Spaceflight Industries ;
projects aboard, too. A spacecraft from Elysium Space; Space Exploration Tech-
the Los Angeles County Museum of Art nologies Corp; Orbital Insight; Google;
sent up a 24-karat gold jar with a bust of SpaceKnow; Capella Space Inc; OneWeb;
the first African American astronaut to SpacePharma; NASA Ames Research
reach space. Artist Trevor Paglen sent Center; Los Alamos National Labratory;
356
Mercury Problems
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

New rocket propulsion systems for rocket While the US government has tried to Apollo Fusion; SpaceX; NASA; National Geo-
engines would use mercury as a fuel, which reduce our mercury emissions since the spatial Intelligence Agency; FAA; FCC.
could run the risk of spreading toxic chemi- 1990s, those rules do not specifically cov-
cals through Earth’s atmosphere. er spacecraft hovering above us. The FAA
requires companies to disclose hazardous
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! materials, but again, this doesn’t include
NASA experimented with mercury in the satellites. It’s an area where yet again,
1960s because it’s a low-cost, high-pow- technology has surpassed our governing
er option for ion engines. Startup Apollo agencies and the policy they write.
Mercury is heavier than the xenon and krypton
powering other ion engines in use today. Fusion has discovered a new approach to
using mercury—but there’s a catch. Mer-
cury is heavier than the xenon and krypton
powering other ion engines in use today.
What customers might save on costs
could pollute the atmosphere in potentially
harmful ways.

China’s Space Ambitions

INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH

In January 2019, China became the first China may have shown up late to the space China has outlined its plans to: explore the
country to land a robotic mission on the race: it didn’t send its first satellite into far side of the moon, develop seeds that
moon’s far side. It was a historic accom- orbit until 1970, long after the US and for- can be grown on the moon, build a lunar
plishment—and a clear sign of new leader- mer Soviet Union had already been to the outpost, send a probe to Mars and more.
ship from China. moon and back. Chinese officials have said that by 2030,
China eyes space exploration as a vital part China hopes to be among the major space
of its global leadership as it seeks to cre- powers of the world.
ate a new world order. In 2013, President
Xi Jinping said “the space dream is part Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
A view from the lunar rover Yutu-2 or Jade
of the dream to make China stronger…the China’s National Space Administration. Rabbit 2 on the far side of the moon taken by
Chinese people will take bigger strides to China’s Chang’e-4 lunar probe.
explore further into space.” China doesn’t
Photograph: Cnsa Handout/EPA
just want to be seen as a powerful Asian
nation—it wants to set the global pace for
numerous geoeconomic initiatives, for
environmental causes, and for societal
development.
358
Asteroid Mining
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
For Resources REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH

Mining asteroids for resources will prove Space mining pioneer Planetary Resourc- ConsenSys; Astrobotic; Government of
invaluable to researchers back on Earth. es had hoped to build reasonably-priced Luxembourg; NASA; National Geospa-
equipment for companies to send up—es- tial Intelligence Agency; Orbital Insight;
Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! sentially, hyper-futuristic shovels and University of Tokyo; California Polytechnic
In September 2017, Arizona State Univer- buckets for an impending gold rush—but it University; Boeing; Los Alamos National
sity astrophysicist Dante Lauretta and his failed to secure enough funding to move Labratory; NRL Naval Center for Space;
team launched the OSIRIS-REx to Bennu, forward. It was acquired in November Space and Missile Defense Command; US
an asteroid that might offer secrets about 2018 by ConsenSys, a Brooklyn-based Air Force; Lawrence Livermore National
the early history of the solar system. It blockchain company. While we haven’t Labratory; MIT.
OSIRIS-REx orbited asteroid Bennu in early
will map the asteroid and return a sample, seen much progress since last year, there
2019.
landing back on Earth in 2023. In 2017, the is still movement in this space. Several
Photo courtesy: OSIRIS-REx Mission
government of Luxembourg passed a law companies are planning to send mining
arguing in favor of private companies min- equipment and spacecraft to near-Earth
ing asteroids. Previously, anything above asteroids by 2021. The first round of
the Earth’s atmosphere—the Moon, the flights will be for prospecting purposes—
space overhead—has required joint agree- but there are millions of asteroids over-
ments between our various national space head.
agencies and governments. This is an
important departure. Essentially, whoever
gets to an asteroid first gets dibs on the
mineral deposits and, presumably, water.

TREND 313 - 315 Sixth year on the list
SPACE EXPLORATION
INFORMS ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
STRATEGY NOW
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
KEEP
REVISIT
VIGILANT
LATER
WATCH
Key Insight !!!!!!!!!! 314 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 315 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We’re in the middle of a space exploration Bigger, Bolder Telescopes Moon Rush
boom. Last year, a review board found that the Fifty years after Apollo 11, humans are
James Webb Space Telescope project headed back to the moon. China has made
313 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! was already $8.8 billion overbudget and no secret of its desire to send people to
Going Where We’ve Never Gone Before still many years away from taking flight. the moon on extended missions by the
Even so, there are four new NASA space 2030s, while NASA is hoping to stimulate
A Chinese robot is exploring the dark side
telescope concepts that could find their a private sector ecosystem that can build
of the moon, while a NASA’s New Hori-
way into development soon. Only one of the all of the vehicles, landers, probes, rovers,
zons Mission has been discovering weird This image was taken by the Long-Range Recon-
concepts will be funded and built to launch space stations and research craft we’ll
objects on the outer edges of our solar naissance Imager (LORRI) on January 1, 2019. It
in the mid-2030s, but they’re all designed need in the future.
system. Startups are working on plans is the most detailed of Ultima Thule returned so
to help scientists discover supermassive
to colonize Mars, and they have serious far by the New Horizons spacecraft.
black holes, planet-forming disks, the new
investors. In 2017, retired US military
galaxies and of course earthlike exoplanets Photo courtesy: NASA
officers confirmed that the government is
that might sustain life.
seeking out and tracking alien life.
360
21
6 WEAK SIGNALS
FOR 2020
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here are some of the weak signals we’re already listening to for 2020.
01 City-Scale Spatial Computing network. It does this using powerful than anything built technique prints curved layers,
Spatial computing is a quantum mechanics. A to date—they require special making the final product much
computing environment that University of Michigan team algorithms capable of doing stronger. Much of the research
seamlessly maps physical announced plans to develop an new things. Scientists have on 5D printing is being done
spaces and the people, objects “unhackable” computer, funded been researching quantum at the Mitsubishi Electric
and pets inside of them—and by a new $3.6 million grant computing for decades. The Research Labratories.
makes digital information feel from the Defense Advanced challenge has been proving that 06 Computational Pharmacies
as though it is both physically Research Projects Agency. The a quantum machine is actually On the horizon are specially
present and reactive to the project involves redesigning doing quantum computations. trained pharmacists who have
environment. Magic Leap microprocessors and computer That’s because in a quantum backgrounds in bioinformatics,
makes use of its mixed reality architecture to avoid the system, the very act of medicine, and pharmacology.
headset and spatial computing vulnerabilities like Spectre and observing information in transit Computational pharmacy
system. Through a combination Meltdown. changes the nature of that will evolve as a new medical
of digital lightfields, that sense 03 Quantum Computing data. In 2019, IBM announced a specialty, one that works
and compute, the system In short, quantum computers commercial quantum computer, closely with a new breed of
melds physical and digital data can solve problems that are but it will still be a few years for general practitioner MDs
in real time. Years from now, computationally too difficult this technology to move from who are aided by artificial
it will be possible to extend for a classical computer, which the fringe to the mainstream. intelligence. Rather than filling
the scale of spatial computing can only process information 04 Brain-To-Vehicle Interfaces prescriptions with medications
environments, including ones in 1s or 0s. In the quantum Nissan is researching an created to serve the maximum
that are not only as big as universe, those 1 and 0 bytes autonomous vehicle that number of people well enough,
sprawling cities, but also act as can exist in two states (qubits) interprets signals from the computational pharmacies will
a municipal operating system, at once, allowing computations driver’s brain in order to keep consult your personal genetic
helping citizens with their day- to be performed in parallel. passengers safe and happy. records and calculate the best
to-day activities. Therefore, if you build two course of treatment.
05 5D Printing
02 “Unhackable” Computers qubits, they are able to hold This is the name for five-axis
Cambridge University (UK) four values at the same time: additive manufacturing—rather
is currently working on an 00, 01, 10, 11. Quantum than printing in flat layers,
“unhackable” computer computers are not only more as we do today, this new
How Your At the Future Today Institute, our goal in the first step of forecasting
is to identify weak signals. Because we know that technology is deeply
intertwined with a number of other areas of modern change—the economy,
Organization education, government, media, and more—we cannot think about the future
of a technology without simultaneously considering movement across all
Can Take these other areas.
Action To do this, we use a series of questions to guide our research on emerging

technology, science and other areas of change. We categorize our
On research using a series of nodes and connections. Mapping the fringe

forces us to think very broadly—not just about an emerging trend, but
Emerging how that trend relates to a broader ecosystem. Taking this broader view,
where nodes and relationships are both considered in tandem, is critical.
Trends This approach can be used to map the fringe for a product or even an
entire industry.
The fringe sketch is perhaps the most important part of our forecasting
methodology. The goal with the fringe sketch is to get back to zero—to
reset the information stage so that it can be fully mapped. The fringe
sketch alone does not tell us what the trends are that we should follow.
Rather, it positions us to consider all of the possible sources of change
ahead.
About The Authors
Lead Author ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Co-Authors ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Amy Webb Elena Giralt

Amy Webb is a quantitative futurist. She is the founder of the Future Today Institute Elena Giralt is an emerging technologies and blockchain strategist with a
and is a professor of strategic foresight at the NYU Stern School of Business. background in public journalism. She graduated from Santa Clara University
Webb was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers with degrees in French and Political Science and holds an MBA from New York
most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led and won University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business, where her research and course
the 2017 Thinkers50 Radar Award. She is a Fellow in the United States-Japan of study focused intensively on blockchain technology.
Leadership Program, a Foresight Fellow in the US Government Accountability
Office Center for Strategic Foresight, and was a Visiting Nieman Fellow at Marc Palatucci
Harvard University. She was also a Delegate on the former US-Russia Bilateral Marc Palatucci is a media strategist. He graduated from New York University’s
Presidential Commission, where she worked on the future of technology, media and Gallatin School of Individualized Study with a degree in Linguistics and Languages,
international diplomacy. She is the bestselling author of The Signals Are Talking: serves as editor-at-large for a magazine and creative media agency, and is a 2019
Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which explains how to forecast MBA Candidate at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business,
emerging technology. It was a Washington Post Bestseller, won the Gold Axiom where his course of study is focused on the future of technology, commerce,
Award for business books, and was selected as one of the best books the year entertainment and media.
by Fast Company, Inc. Magazine and Amazon. Webb’s new book The Big Nine: How
Kriffy Perez
The Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity (PublicAffairs/
Kristofer “Kriffy” Perez has over a decade of experience as a payment’s strategy
Hachette, March 5, 2019) is a call-to-arms about the broken nature of artificial
consultant with leading global banks and retailers across Europe and the Americas.
intelligence, and the powerful corporations that are turning the human-machine
As a Senior Consultant in IBM’s Digital Strategy group, he focuses on ideation and
relationship on its head.
data-driven insights. Based in New York City, he is a serial innovator who seeks
to drive how technology impacts society. Kriffy has worked for IBM, MasterCard
Advisors, the Boston Consulting Group, and founded a startup; accumulating over
120 projects across 8 countries, 15 patents, a degree in mechanical engineering
from Lehigh University, and an MBA from New York University’s Stern School of
Business.
Disclaimer
Additional Research ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! The Future Today Institute’s 2019 Tech Trends Report
relies on data, analysis and modeling from a number
Kara Lipsky of sources, which includes: sources within public and
Roy Levkowitz private companies, securities filings, patents, academic
research, government agencies, market research
Editing ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! firms, conference presentations and papers and news
Jennifer Alsever media stories. This report includes research from our
2018 Tech Trends For Journalism Report. FTI’s reports
Jennifer Alsever is a partner in Colorado-based Campfire Content. Prior to that,
she spent 24 years as a professional journalist, contributing business, technology
are occasionally updated on the FTI website.
and startup stories for such publications as the New York Times, The Wall Street FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations,
Journal, Fortune Magazine, CNNMoney, Inc Magazine, NBC, Wired, Fast Company some of which are referenced in this report and are
and Entrepreneur. She is also the author of the acclaimed young adult trilogy, the
highlighted with an asterisk in the appendix. FTI does
Trinity Forest Series.
not own any equity position in any of the entities listed
Douglas Brown in this presentation.
Douglas Brown is a partner of Colorado-based Campfire Content. He is a longtime
Any trademarks or service marks used in this report
journalist with two nominations for the Pulitzer Prize and three nominations for
are the marks of their respective owners and who do
James Beard Awards.
not endorse the statements in this report. All rights
Creative Direction & Design ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! in marks are reserved by their respective owners. We
disclaim any and all warranties, express or implied,
Emily Caufield with respect to this report.
Production ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Cheryl Cooney
The views expressed herein are the authors own and are not representative of the
greater organizations in which they have been employed.
The names of companies, services and products mentioned in this report are not
necessarily intended as endorsements by the Future Today Institute or this report’s
authors. 366
About The Future
Today Institute
Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute helps leaders and
their organizations prepare for deep uncertainty and complex
futures. We focus exclusively on how emerging technology and
science will disrupt business, transform the workforce and ignite
geopolitical change. Our pioneering, data-driven forecasting
methodology and tools empower leaders to make better decisions
about the future, today.
Our forecasting methodology has been featured in the MIT Sloan
Management Review and in the Harvard Business Review, and
it is taught at universities around the world. FTI clients and
partners include government agencies, Fortune 100 companies,
investment firms, news and entertainment media organizations
and associations. Our focus is technology, and we intentionally
work with a wide variety of organizations to enable the transfer
of knowledge and best practices across industries.
Reliable strategic foresight depends on both ingenuity and
rigorous evaluation. We work in cross-disciplinary teams
comprised of trained futurists as well as subject-area experts,
technologists, designers, process-thinkers and creative minds.
FTI is based in New York City and Washington, D.C.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
New Book By FTI Founder Amy Webb
The Big Nine aren’t the The future of AI—and by extension, the future of humanity—is controlled by just nine com-
panies. There are six in the US, the G-MAFIA: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook,
villains in this story. IBM and Apple. Three are in China, and they are the BAT: Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent. If
the fastest-growing power to change the future was concentrated in the hands of
In fact, they are our best only nine decision-makers, would you worry? If those decision-makers were driven by
hope for the future. market forces or politics instead of what’s good for you, would you do something? Be-
cause our futures depend on courageous leadership right now.
Amy Webb has written one of the most important The Big Nine is an important and intellectually
books of the year and everyone should read it. crisp work that illuminates the promise and peril
! John Noonan, National security expert and former of AI...it should be discussed in classrooms and
nuclear launch officer boardrooms around the world.
! Alec Ross, author of The Industries of the Future
The Big Nine is provocative, readable, and
relatable. Amy Webb demonstrates her extensive The Big Nine is thoughtful and provocative, taking
knowledge of the science driving AI and the the long view and most of all raising the right
geopolitical tensions that could result between issues around AI and providing a road map for an
the US and China in particular. She offers deep optimistic future with AI.
insights into how AI could reshape our economies ! Peter Schwartz, senior vice president, Salesforce.
and the current world order, and she details a com, and author of The Art of the Long View
plan to help humanity chart a better course.
! Anja Manuel, Stanford University, cofounder and Webb’s potential scenarios for specific futures
partner RiceHadleyGates
are superb, providing detailed visions for society
to avoid as well as achieve.
The Big Nine makes bold predictions regarding ! John C. Havens, Autonomous systems expert and AI
the future of AI. But unlike many other ethics researcher
prognosticators, Webb sets sensationalism aside
in favor of careful arguments, deep historical
context, and a frightening degree of plausibility.
! Jonathan Zittrain, George Bemis Professor of
International Law and professor of Computer
Science, Harvard University
368
We invite you to learn and
use the tools of a futurist.
THE SIGNALS ARE TALKING: Why Today’s Fringe is Tomorrow’s Main-
stream arrives at a fortuitous moment, as it gives critical guidance on how
to think like a futurist in order to most accurately answer pressing ques-
tions about the future of emerging technologies, science, our economy,
political systems, and civil liberties.
“A rare treasure: a substantive guide written in a narrative

that’s a delight to read.”
— Christopher Graves, Global Chair, Ogilvy Public Relations
[The Signals Are Talking] provides several brain-bending

future possibilities...Webb’s stellar reputation in this red-
hot field should generate demand.”
—Booklist • Washington Post Bestseller
• 2017 Thinkers50 Radar Award Winner
“A logical way to sift through today’s onslaught of events • Winner, 2017 Gold Axiom Award
and information to spot coming changes in your corner of • Fast Company’s Best Books of 2016
the world.”
• Amazon’s Best Books of 2016
—KIRKUS

3 Gimbals Allscripts Aruba Networks
360 Profilms Alltech Asahi Shimbun Company
Aadhaar Alphabet Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
ABB Amazon Astro Digital
Abundant Robotics Amazon Connect Astrobotic
Companies, Accent Advanced Systems Amazon Web Services Astrocast
Ace Hardware Ambiq Micro AT&T*
Organizations, Activision Blizzard Entertainment American Association for the Advancement
of Science
Atlantica Yield PLC
AdEx Atmel
Universities Adler Seeds American Civil Liberties Union
American Enterprise Institute
ATR Intelligent Robotics and
Communication Laboratories
Advance Publications
and Aerial & Maritime American Express*
American Vanguard
Audi
Audioburst
Aerion
Government AeroFarms Ample

AMY Robotics
Auphonic
Aurora Labs
Aethon Inc.
Agencies Afluenta
AGCO
Android
Anki
Autodesk
Automated Insights
Mentioned Agfunder
Agora
Anthropocene Working Group
Antpool
Automation Anywhere
Autonomous Solutions
In Our 2019 Agria Corporation

AgTech Insight
Apis Cor
Apollo Fusion
AVEBE
Avis
Trends Report. AGTransWest

Airbnb
Apple
Arable
Avrio
Axel Springer
Airbus Arc Group aXiomatic

Companies that the Future Today
Archer Daniels Midland Axios
Institute as worked with in any AirDog
capacity during the past five years Aleph Farms Arduino Axonify
are denoted with an asterisk. AlgorithmWatch.org Argonne-Northwestern Solar Energy Azavea
Research (ANSER) Center Baidu
Alibaba
Arizona State University Banco Santander
Alico Incorporated
ARP Bank of America
All Nippon Airlines*
Arria NLG Baseload Renewables
Alliance For American Manufacturing
370
Companies, BLIP Systems Cardano Coinbase
Organizations, Blockstack CareOS College of Charleston
Universities Blogger Cargill Columbia University*
and Government Bloomberg Carnegie Mellon University Columbia University’s Earth Institute
Agencies Blue Prism Carnegie Mellon’s Robotics Institute Comcast
Mentioned Blue River Technology Carrefour Comcast NBC Universal*
In Our 2019 BlueCats Case Western Reserve University Common Sense
Trends Report. BMW CBS Television Conoco Phillips
Boeing CCP Games ConsenSys
BASF Bombardier Phillips Center for Financial Inclusion Coral Project
Bayer AG Boom Center for Humane Technology Cornell University
BBC R&D Bosch Center For Migration Studies Corvette
BBDO Boston Dynamics Central Intelligence Agency Coursera
BBH BP Cerner Cox Media Group*
BBVA Braze ChargePoint Critical Mass
Bean Bright Farms Chartbeat CropEnergies AG
Bell Helicopter British-American International Thwaites Chatfuel CropMetrics
Glacier Collaboration Chevron Corporation* CrossMatch
Bernard Matthews Farms
Brown Institute at Columbia University Chiba University Crowd Companies Council
Bertelsmann
Buddy China COSCO Shipping Corp Currency
Better Business Bureau
Bugeater China National Petroleum Corporation Custos Media Technologies
Beyond Meat
Cadillac China’s National Space Administration CVS
Binded
California Institute of Technology Circos VR Cypress Creek Renewables
Bing
California Polytechnic University Cisco* Daimler AG
BioCatch
Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project Citibank Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
Bioinspired Intelligent Mechatronics Lab at
Ritsumeikan University Canaan Citibike DARPA
Bird Canada’s Office of Planning and Research Civil DataONE
Bitdefender Canadian Solar Inc Claas Decent
Bitfury Capella Space Inc Clara Foods Deep VR
Bitmain Capital One Clear Del Monte
Blink CarCharging Capstone Cloud9 Delft University of Technology

Delphi Automotive Systems eClinicalWorks Ethereum FlavorWiki
Denso Ecooltra Ethiopia Fleet Space
Descartes Labs EcoPlexus Etsy Fluidinfo
Detroit Dirt EHang European Geosciences Union Foodpairing
Deutsche Bank EHang UAV European Space Agency Ford
DHL Eifer Elektro Firma European Union Form Energy
Didi Chuxing Eko Everwise Formlabs
DigitalGlobe Electrify America Exeq Founders Fund
Discovery Electronic Arts ExOne Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
dishq Electronic Frontier Foundation Expect Labs Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU)
Disney Elysium Space Exxon Mobil Fujitsu
DJI Emerson Electric FAA Funding Circle
DMV EnableSoft Facebook Future Meat
DNV GL Energcon Falabella Gamesa
Dolby Energid Technologies FAMA Gannett*
Dominos Energous Corp FANUC Garage Band
Dong Energy Energy Acuity Farmers Business Network Gastrograph
Douyu ENOVA Farmers Edge GCL-Poly Energy Holdings
Dow Chemical Company Entosense FarmLink GE Aviation
DowDuPont Environmental Justice Foundation FEMA GE Healthcare
Dreambox Envision Solar Festo Geekbot
Driveri EOS FFRobotics Geekie
Droga5 EPFL Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Gelo
Dubai Road Epic Games FICO Gemini
Duke University EPSON Robotics Fidelity* General Electric
Duke University’s Center for Ericsson Fidor General Motor

Neuroengineering ESA Data Registry Finland GeoOptics
DuPont ESPN Finless Foods Georgia Institute of Technology
E.W. Scripps Estimote First Solar Getty
Early Warning ETH Zurich First Wind Solar Gimbal
Earthcube Ethereal Machines Fisker Inc. Glimworm Beacon
372
Companies, Harvard Biodesign Lab Hulu Intuit
Organizations, Harvard University HumanAPI Investigative Reporters & Editors
Universities Harvard University’s Wyss Institute Human Cell Atlas Consortium Ionic Materials
and Government Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences Huya Ionity
Agencies and Technology Hyperledger Ioscoot
Mentioned HarvardX Hyundai IOTA
In Our 2019 Hearst Corporation* IAB Iowa Farm Bureau
Trends Report. Hearst Ventures IBM* iRobot
Hecate Energy iFlytek IRS
Helios Interactive Ikea Iwatani Agrigreen
Global Cyber Alliance
Hera Systems ILMxLAB iZettle
Global Pvq SE
Hershey’s Imax Jaguar Land Rover
GoBank
Hertz IMF Japan 2020 Olympic Committee
Goldman Sachs
Hewlett-Packard Imperial College London Japan Airlines
Golem.network
Hexcele Impossible Burger Japan Plant Factory Association
Good Food Institute
Hiangsu Akcome Science & Technology Co Inception VR Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade
Goodby Silverstein & Partners
Hikvision Indian Space Research Organization and Industry
Google
HireVue Industrial Light and Magic JD.com
Google Analytics
Hitachi ING Jeeva Wireless
Google Play
Home Depot Ingenico Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co.
Google’s Eddystone
Honda Inmarsat Jigsaw
Government of Luxembourg
Honeycomb Innerspace VR Joby
Grand View Research
Honeywell Inox Wind John Deere Labs
Graphenano
Hover Instagram Johns Hopkins Applied Physics
GridCoin
Howdy Laboratory
Groove X International Social Science Council
HP Johns Hopkins University
Grove Labs International Union of Biological Sciences
HQSoftware Johnson Controls
Grupo Globo Internet Archive
HSBC JPMorgan Chase
GSD&M Interorbital Systems
HTC Juniper
Hadoop Intersect Power
Huawei Just
Hanergy Thin Film Power Group Ltd Interviewed
Hubert Burda Media Kanagawa University
Harmonix Intrepid

Karem Aircraft LG Matrerialize MIT’s Department of Mechanical
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Libsyn Matrix Industries Engineering
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Light Sail VR MatterMost MIT’s Interactive Robotics Group
Kepler Communications Lightning Labs Mazda Mitsubishi
KeyBank Lime MDA Mitsubishi Electric
Khosla Ventures Line Meatable Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Kia LinkedIn Media Change and Innovation Division at Mobike
Kind Ads littleBits the University of Zurich Monero
Kitty Hawk Lloyds MediaOcean Monsanto
Kiva Systems Lockheed Martin Medicaid Monzo
Klarna Los Alamos National Laboratory Medicare Morgan Stanley
Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers loudwalk Meditech Morpho
Knewton Lowes Meeka Motech
Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity Lukoil Melcher Media Motorola
Kodak Luxe Memphis Meats MuleSoft
Kodak Coin Lyft Mercedes Benz N26
Kohler Lyrebird Meredith Corp* Nanyang Technological University
Komatsu Macromedia University of Applied Sciences MetaX Narrative Science
Kongsberg Maersk Michigan State University NASA
Kontakt.io Magic Leap Microbiome Center at the University of NASA Ames Research Center
Chicago NASA Unmanned Aircraft System
KUKA Mailchimp
Microsoft* (UAS)
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Makani
Mirror NASA’s Robotics Alliance Project
Laboratory for Embedded Machines and MakerBot
Ubiquitous Robots at UC Los Angeles Missouri’s Road to Tomorrow initiative National Academy of Science
Malaysia
Lancashire Holdings MIT Computer Science and Artificial National Association of City
Manulife Financial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) Transportation Officials (NACTO)
Lausanne and Sant’Anna School of Marriott
Advanced Studies MIT Department of Materials Science and National Association of Manufacturers
Marrone Bio Innovations Engineering National Center for Atmospheric
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Massachusetts General Hospital MIT Media Lab Research
Lenovo
Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT’s CSAIL’s Soft Contact Modeling Group National Conference of State
Leo Burnett Legislatures
Masten Space Systems MIT’s Department of Civil and
LexisNexis Environmental Engineering
Mastercard*
374
Companies, Neuralink Ofo Pipistrel Aircraft
Organizations, New Development Bank Ogilvy & Mather Planet
Universities New Relic Omega Group Planet Labs
and Government New Wave Foods OneWeb Planetary Resources
Agencies New York City Council OPEC countries Plantix
Mentioned New York Times* OpenAg Initiative at MIT PlantJamme
In Our 2019 News Corp OpenBiome PlantVillage
Trends Report. Nextar Broadcasting Group Opener Playful Corp
NextEra Energy Oracle PlugShare
National Cybersecurity Alliance Nielsen Orbital Insight Plum
National Emergency Address Database Nissan Organovo Po.et
National Federation of Agricultural Nordex Osaka University Pocket
Cooperative Association (Japan) North American Coalition for Insect Ossia Inc Polytechnical University of China
National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Agriculture Otherside Entertainment Porsche
National Institute for Computer-Assisted Northrop Grumman Otto Postmates
Reporting Northwestern University’s Feinberg School Oxford University Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
National Oceanic and Atmospheric of Medicine Research
Pacific Ethanol
Administration (NOAA) NovoEd
Panasonic Power Company of Wyoming
National Public Radio* NRL Naval Center for Space
Pandorabot PredPol
National Science Foundation’s Expeditions NSLComm
PayPal Presidential Commission on Election
in Computing Program
NuProbe Administration
National Security Agency Pearson
Nvidia PRI
National University of Defense Technology Pega Platform
NVIDIA ProPublica
(China) Peking University
Oberthur Technologies Prospera
Naval Postgraduate School Penn State University
Obie PRX
NCSL Perception Squared
Ocado Technology PsiKick
NEC Perfect Day
Oculus Purdue University
NeighborGoods PETA
Organisation for Economic Co-operation Qstream
NEO Peterbilt
and Development (OECD) Qualcomm
Netflix Petro China
Office of Management and Budget Quora
NetIQ Philip Merrill College of Journalism at the
Office of Naval Research RadioPublic
Neura University of Maryland
Office of Science and Technology Policy*

Range Rover Santa Clara University Shenzhen Aerospace Donganghong Space Exploration Technologies Corp
Raycom Media Santander Shinpo Electronics Space Systems Loral
Raytheon SAP Shodan Spaceflight Industries
Razorfish Sapienza Università di Roma Siemens SpaceKnow
Recurrent Energy Satellogic Silicon Valley AgTech SpacePharma
Reddit Saucy Silk Road Fund SpaceX
REDEF Group Saudi Aramco Sinclair Broadcast Group Sparkbox
Renewable Energy Group Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic (The SingularDTV SpeakPipe
Rent the Runway Spaceship Company) Sinopec Spin
CiTIUS at University of Santiago de Schneider Electric SkillSurvey Spire
Compostela School of Informatics University of Skip Spotify
Reuters* Edinburgh
Sky and Space Global sPower
RevenueWire School of Science and Engineering at
University of Dundee Skype Sprint
Reverge VR Slack Square
Scribendi
Revue Slushpool SRI International
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna
Rewind Smart Ag Standup Alice
Seateroo
Riot Games SmartThings Stanford Center for Philanthropy
Seegrid
Ripio Snap and Civil Society
SemaConnect
Robinhood Socure Stanford Computational
Semios Journalism Lab
Robotshop SoftBank
SendGrid Stanford University
Rocket.Chat SoftBank Capital
SENS Research Foundation Stanford University Computational
Rolls-Royce SoftBank Group
SenseTime Imaging Lab
Royal Dutch Shell SoftBank Robotics
Sensorberg GmbH Stanford University’s Sonnenburg Lab
Royal Farms Solar Roadways
Sentera StarLab
RSK SolarCity
Sesame Credit Starsky Robotics
Rutgers University Solid Firm
Sewbo StartVR
RYOT SONM
Shanghai Engineering Center for Steel Crate Games
Ryukoku University Microsatellites Sony* Steem.io
Salesforce Shapeways Sony CSL Steemit
Samsung SharedStreets Sony PlayStationOrbus VR Stellar
SANParks Data Repository Sharp SoundCloud Stitcher
376
Companies, TerrAvion Tomiyama Corporation United Power
Organizations, Tesla Tonal University College Cork
Universities The Academy of Optoelectronics at the ToolLocker University College London
Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing
and Government Toray University Hospital Agostino Gemelli
Agencies The Aerospace Corporation Tow Center for Digital Journalism at University of Aberdeen
Mentioned The American Gastroenterological Columbia University University of Amsterdam
Association Center for Gut Microbiome Toyota
In Our 2019 Research & Education University of British Columbia
Trends Report. Toys Trunk University of California at Berkeley’s
The American Gut Project
Transcelestial School of Information
The Coral Project
TRON University of California at Los Angeles
Stratasys The FCC
Trustify School of Engineering
Stratolaunch The Food Research Institute of Norway
Tsinghua University University of California at San Diego
Subaru The Information
Tufts University University of California Berkeley
Substack The International Union of Geological
Tumblr University of California-Davis
Sulzon Group Sciences
Turo University of California-Irvine
Suncor Energy The Nature Conservancy
Twilio University of California-Santa Barbara
Sungenta The Onion
Twitch University of Cambridge
SunPower The Roosevelt Institute
Twitter* University of Chicago
SuperMeat The Royal Society for the Encouragement
of the Arts, Manufacturers and Commerce Tyson Foods University of Illinois Urbana
SuperPhone
The Union of Concerned Scientists Uber University of Maastricht
Survios
The Void uBiome University of Maryland
Swellpro
The We Company Ubisoft University of Massachusetts
Symantec
Thingful Udacity University of New Mexico
Syngenta
ThreatMetrix ULC Robotics University of New South Wales
Synopsys
Three One Zero Ultivue University of North Carolina at
T-mobile Wilmington
Time Inc* UN Food and Agriculture Organization
TaKanto VR University of Notre Dame
Time Warner* UNESCO
Talent Sonar University of Pennsylvania
TinyLetter UNHCR
Tamedia University of Pennsylvania
Tohoku University United Nations
TDBank University of Southern California
Tokai University United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel
Technische Universitat Berlin University of Southern California -
Tokyo Institute of Technology on Climate Change
Tencent Annenberg School of Communication &

Journalism US House Armed Services Subcommittee Volvo Wyss Institute at Harvard
University of Stuttgart on Emerging Threats and Capabilities Vox Media X.ai
University of Texas at Austin US National Science Foundation* Voxeljet XCOR Aerospace
University of Tokyo US Securities and Exchange Commission VRNISH XENDEE
University of Washington US Space and Missile Defense Command VRX Networks Xiaomi
University of Washington’s Center for USAA VW Xinjiang Goldwind Science and
Sensorimotor Neural Engineering Valero Energy Walgreens Technology
Univision Validic Walkera XL Group
UPort Valve Wall Street Journal* Y Combinator
UPS Vaultitude Walmart Yahoo
US Air Force Vayable Washington Post Yamaha
US Army Vedanta Wawa Yitu
US Army Research Office Venmo Wayfair Yomiuri Shimbun Holdings
US Census Verizon Waymo YouTube
US Congress Vestas Wind Systems WeChat Yuneec
US Department of Defense* VEX Robotics Weibo Zeiss
US Department of Energy Via Weiden+Kennedy Zelle
US Department of Health and Human Viacom Wells Fargo Zendesk
Services ViaSat Zipline
WeMedia
US Department of Homeland Security Vice Zoetic AI
Wevr
US Department of Housing and Urban Viome ZTE
Development WikiLeaks
Virgin Galactic Wix.com Zuercher
US Department of Justice
Virgin Group Wolf 359
US Department of State*
VirtualSKY Worchester Polytechnic Institute
US Department of Transportation
Visa WordPress
US Environmental Protection Agency
Viveland Workbot
US Federal Chief Information Officer
Vivify World Bank
US Federal Communications Commission
VML World Building Institute
US Federal Trade Commission
Voicery World Privacy Forum
US Food and Drug Administration
Volkswagen World Resources Institute
US Geological Survey
Volocopter WorleyParsons Group
US Government Accountability Office*
378
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20Tech

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Scenarios for eSports Spinoffs

The Revolutionary Gamification of Education

A Sandbox for Crowdsourced Architectural Design

eSports Becomes an Arena of Mass Corruption

Mixed Reality Arcades

Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! strap in to a host of games—but this time Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Mixed Reality arcades are bringing games to Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Formula One superstar Lewis Hamilton.

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

VR Augments Corporate Social

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Backlash Against EVs

Key Insight ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

More Energy Tech Trends INFORMS ACT

202 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! verifying transactions. Meantime a con- 205 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

The Unintended Consequences of

– Future Today Institute Research Team

Trying to Predict Sea

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Extreme Weather Events cont.

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Indoor and Outdoor

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Deep Learning For

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Farmers Edge; CropMetrics; Blue River

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! companies, Aspire, acquired competitor Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Opportunities and Risks

Genome Editing cont.

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Genome Editing cont.

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

The Big Nine’s Health

Apple has started building health clinics.

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! sharing data. The Mirror is an interactive Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Watchlist ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

© 2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Key Insight !!!!!!!!! Examples ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! What’s Next ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Vaping and E-cigarettes

Vaping and e-cigarettes could face additional federal regulation in 2019.