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EVIDENCE AND CASE STUDIES
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Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2015
Forensic Science and Beyond: Authenticity, Provenance and Assurance
Evidence and Case Studies
This volume comprises chapters which form the evidence for the Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s
Annual Report 2015, together with illustrative case studies. It should be cited as:
Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2015: Forensic Science and Beyond: Authenticity,
Provenance and Assurance. Evidence and Case Studies.
The Government Office for Science would like to thank the authors who contributed evidence chapters,
case studies and their time towards this report and gave it freely.
The report project team was Martin Glasspool, Richard Meadows, Lindsay Taylor, Adam Trigg and Jenny
Wooldridge.
This report consists of contributions received from academia and industry and others outside of
government. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation.
This report is presented in two parts. The first is the summary report of the Government Chief Scientific
Adviser. This was developed as a result of seminars and the advice of the experts who provided the source
of the evidence. The second part, the evidence, has been gathered from and written by a distinguished
group of experts. The evidence takes two forms: chapters that consider a major aspect of the forensic
landscape; and individual case studies that illuminate points of detail and principle. The evidence section
provides the views of the experts themselves, who met on several occasions during the preparation of the
report and had the opportunity to help to develop the narrative and to comment on each other’s
contributions. The Government Chief Scientific Adviser is responsible and accountable for the summary
report, and the experts for their individual contributions to the evidence papers and case studies. Neither
should be blamed for the sins and omissions of the other!
FOREWORD
My second annual report explores new and emerging forensic techniques so that policy
makers can ensure they are developed and used for the benefit of the UK.
● An overview of the UK’s forensic science landscape from the perspective of its users
● The changing nature of crime (including cybercrime), examining how forensic science can predict,
deter and overtake it
● The forensic application of analytical science beyond the court system
● The steps required to secure the UK’s forensic science sector for the long term, with particular
attention to innovation and new market opportunities.
In producing the report, I have drawn on the knowledge of a range of experts and academics. They
have provided a clear evidence base for each of these four areas. This volume presents that body of
evidence, as well as illustrative case studies.
The chapters and case studies herein represent the authors’ personal views rather than those of the
Government Office for Science, but their insights – for which I am greatly indebted – have
fundamentally informed the messages and questions raised in my report.
50,000 25,000
DNA
offenders matches
from crime scenes using between crime scenes
fingerprints each year and offenders
each year
CHAPTER 1
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN
CONTEXT
ANGELA GALLOP, The privatisation of forensic science services in England and Wales has
Axiom been a resounding success, in some ways: it has saved costs, reduced
International Ltd, case turnaround times, maintained quality and, to some extent, inspired
KAREN innovation. But the way services are procured has become increasingly
SQUIBB-WILLIAMS, fragmented, threatening future innovation and potentially undermining
Acorn Chambers public confidence in the criminal justice process. The UK urgently needs
a national strategy covering all aspects of forensic science that takes
I
account of all stakeholders, not just the police.
n reality there may be no such thing tread patterns on shoes and feet marks inside
as ‘Forensic Science’. Perhaps instead, them; differences between voices; paint and glass
a multiplicity of sciences and scientific fragments on tools; the life cycle of flies; and
methodologies, old and new, when applied assemblages of pollen grains.
to legal questions, become the discipline of Most recently, forensic science has been further
forensic science. These questions are usually transformed by our ability to detect and analyse
associated with the prosecution of crime, but tiny amounts of DNA, found to varying extents
12 they also cover consumer and environmental in every part of the human body and in animals
protection, health and safety, and civil proceedings and plants too (see case study p17). And it can
such as breach of contract and negligence. The now recover, analyse and compare vast amounts
sheer variety of scientific disciplines involved in of information stored on mobile phones, tablets
forensic science can potentially distract focus from and PCs, in CCTV footage and other imagery,
the formation of a coherent strategy for their use as well as incalculable quantities of satellite data.
within the justice system. This seemingly endless list of capabilities also
Forensic science is a term that has come to includes the statistical analysis of the likelihood of
be used over the past century and a half to a probability, which can generate confusion that
describe an increasing number of practices. These potentially weakens the contribution of scientific
began with the observations that fingertips evidence (see Chapter 4).
feature different patterns, and that people write Nevertheless, forensic science has led to a
in different, distinguishable ways; that chemistry much more reliable understanding – and indeed
could help to identify poisons; that the blood shed hard physical evidence of – where, when, how
from different types of injury formed distinctive and by whom crimes have been committed.
patterns; and that different chemical groups It can uncover the nature and likely origin of a
could be used to distinguish blood from different wide range of objects and substances; which of
people. All these were used to clear up mysteries two competing accounts is more likely to be
and help get to the bottom of matters in dispute. right; the extent of an individual’s criminality; as
As analytical techniques and methodologies well as the nature of drugs and firearms supply
developed and experience broadened, it became chains, and who is involved in them. Increasingly,
possible to determine the composition of forensic science is also being used to predict
everyday items such as plastic bags and tracksuit when crimes are likely to be committed so they
trousers; the trajectory of a knife or a bullet; the can be pre-empted and disrupted, and it answers
precise nature of arson and ballistics residues; innumerable other questions across endeavours
the meaning of bone damage; how old a bruise in all sections of society. To this extent, it makes
might be; narcotic traces on bank notes; individual an invaluable contribution to our justice and
characteristics of hair, nails, and teeth and bite security systems and thereby to our economic
marks; the interpretation of simple binary data; and social stability.
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT
passed to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), explore more rigorously what the value of forensic
but which fail to continue to court. Since the early science and forensic analysis is to the criminal
2000s, the authors have been told by a number of justice system as a whole.
Chief Constables and other investigators that only The cost of obtaining forensic evidence and
around 10% of cases involving forensic science using expert witnesses is loosely said among senior
evidence ever reach a courtroom. Is there really police to be second only to salary costs within
a 90% attrition rate? And if there is, what are some law enforcement agencies (there is no
the reasons for it? Is this acceptable, for instance reliable and comprehensive data). Consequently,
through a case ending satisfactorily before reaching exploring and seeking to reduce this significant
court, or does it potentially represent a waste and potentially unjust attrition rate should now be
of public funds? And why does our experience placed alongside all the other key considerations of
suggest that public policymakers do not always forensic science and related strategic policy making.
seem to be fully aware of these operational issues? Effective public policy can only be achieved
Answering these questions would offer valuable through identifying and understanding the real
information for strategic forward planning. In challenges of involving forensic science and
the interests of justice and in the public interest, scientific methodologies in the criminal justice
therefore, it is worth considering a different landscape. In this regard, perhaps much is to be
approach to investigating crimes using forensic learnt by moving the focus away from the intense,
evidence (and necessarily expert evidence) and ‘sexy’ work of police, crime scene investigators
preparing cases specifically for the CPS (rather (CSIs) and forensic scientists, or the dramatic
than the perpetual focus of preparation for the and charismatic nature of the courtroom; and
court room). instead shift it to the ‘backroom’ dynamics and
comparatively dry mechanics of the prosecution
HOW USEFUL IS FORENSIC SCIENCE? process. This is the critical decision-making point 15
It is notable that academic, investigative, political where cases either proceed to court, or are filed
and media attention on forensic science has away with numbers of others that have reached
focused almost exclusively on crime scene the end of the criminal justice road.
investigative input and prosecution process Although a body of research exists into attrition
outcomes in the courtroom (i.e. reported rates of particular crime types, especially domestic
cases). But this only addresses the outcomes of violence and rape cases3, there is a dearth of
about 10% of investigative activity, potentially research in relation to attrition rates associated
significantly skewing any analysis. Indeed, if the with particular scientific evidence types (save
effectiveness of police investigations, and the utility perhaps for the US National Academy of Sciences
of forensic evidence, are to be measured by way Report on Forensic Sciences – see below).
of appearances in the courtroom this may lead While the UK has seen myriad reports on police
to ignoring the 90% of investigations that, hidden investigations, and the use of forensic science, these
from view in the manner hypothesised above, fall have almost always based their conclusions upon
by the wayside post-investigation and pre-trial. those rarefied cases that end up in court, which
Such a lack of reliable, evidence-based information are then available for academic and public scrutiny
about what has occurred in the significant majority and comment. Even when directly informed
of cases could suggest that what is ‘known’ about by operational police or forensic scientists,
police investigative and forensic practice is just the these commentators are sometimes at risk of
tip of an iceberg, and any conclusions based upon commenting from behind a veil of ignorance of
such limited knowledge thus remain conjecture. why cases have been ‘dropped’ by the CPS.
No scientific methodology would recommend So why might the attrition rate be so high? Law
extrapolating findings from just 10% of their enforcement investigation files are subjected to
experiments; and yet, if this attrition rate is in a seven-stage filtering process, defined by the
any way accurate, police officers, criminologists, statutory function of the CPS as cases leave the
forensic scientists, lawyers and judges have been investigative field and enter into the gateway
at risk of doing just that. It may be shown in the of the prosecution process. The application
future that this is not the definitive percentage, of these filters appears to have the effect of
but the figure is less important than the need to reducing the strength of the forensic evidence,
particularly when subjected to the “evidential on the murders found that if processes to share
stage” of the Test set out in the Code for information between between forces were
Crown Prosecutors (7th Edition), which Crown followed and adequate checks were conducted
Prosecutors are statutorily obliged to apply in by the school and the police then Ian Huntley
order to determine whether a case proceeds would not have been able to gain employment
into the prosecution process. These seven filters as a school caretaker.
can be broadly defined as follows: In addition, law enforcement agencies – and
1 Applicable statute and case law in the the politicians responsible for them – rely heavily
jurisdiction of England & Wales on the positive public perception of their role
2 The Code for Crown Prosecutors, 7th Edition to achieve co-operation (‘policing by consent’).
3 The CPS Core Quality Standards This requires favourable media coverage, and
4 The Criminal Procedure Rules they are potentially drawn into a public-relations
5 The Criminal Procedure and Investigations Act, approach which accentuates ‘success’ at tackling
1996 crime, and detecting and convicting offenders.
6 The more contemporary4 principles of The increase in forensic laboratories and the
streamlining Forensic Case Management and diversification of forensic techniques over the
proportionate prosecutions past thirty years, propelled especially by DNA
7 The absence of a contractual relationship testing, has occurred without a corresponding
between forensic science providers and end- efflorescence of published research on the
users, namely the CPS and the court efficacy of such techniques on solving crime
and actually convicting criminals6. Studies7, 8
The second stage of this filtration process, in have shown that forensic evidence did impact
particular, calls for attention because it deals on prosecution rates, though not uniformly
16 with the status of evidence itself – a question – for example, by increasing sentences and
which probes the core of the place of science incarceration, though not actually affecting
within the development of the modern nation whether or not a defendant was convicted in the
state, and one taken up in the work of major first place.
philosophers of science Karl Popper, Thomas Joseph Peterson and Ira Sommers have
Kuhn, and Paul Feyerabend5. According to the shown that the impact of forensic evidence
description of the evidential stage in the CPS’s varied between different kinds of cases. Forensic
Code for Crown Prosecutors, for evidence to be evidence has a strong impact on the rate of
used in court, the prosecutor must be satisfied arrest, charging, and conviction for aggravated
that it is reliable, credible, and admissible. It assault, burglary and robbery, and rape, in
could be that it is in the face of these questions particular6. The same study found that in only
that the findings and methodologies of forensic “~2% of all cases, 6% of cases with crime scene
science encounter significant resistance. evidence, and 12% of cases with examined
Importantly, it may also help to consider evidence” did forensic evidence link a suspect to
whether the ability of the 43 police services of a crime scene or a victim. However, it should be
England and Wales to individually source their acknowledged that this conclusion may, to some
forensic science needs – rather than acting extent, depend on the particular methodology
together as a nationwide ‘super user’ – may have used, as with all research.
fed a tendency for each police service to use Kelly Pyrek has represented forensic science
their scientific and technological capability in a as a mêlée in which “the numerous stakeholders
‘siloed’ manner to excel in achieving individual in the criminal justice system extract from
police service performance indicator targets. forensic science what they need to perpetuate
Such targets are potentially counter-productive their positions”9. Further recent research has
to a national cohesive knowledge sharing highlighted the conflicted agendas in which
approach. Looking wider than forensic science, forensic science is caught. According to Kevin
the Soham murders are perhaps an example Strom and Matthew Hickman, “compared
of the price paid by the public interest for the with reducing crime rates, maximizing case
past lack of unified action and communication solution, conviction, and sentencing rates may
by some police services. The Bichard Report not command the same attention”10. Though
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT
CASE STUDY
DNA ANALYSIS
D
SUSAN POPE, Director of DNA Principal Forensics Ltd
ifferent types of DNA test can one person’s Y profile can be used to include
produce profiles that provide or exclude all of the male blood relatives of the
important investigative leads in person tested, so the number of people profiled
unsolved cases. Imagine a case can be limited. Mitochondrial DNA, inherited
where the body of a person has been found with through the female line, can provide further
multiple stab wounds. There are no witnesses to familial leads.
the incident, but a knife and a tissue were found If the profile obtained from cells on the knife
beside the body. Investigators swab the handle handle shows a mixture of DNA from multiple
of the knife and take samples from the tissue, in donors, then the direct DNA database searches
order to recover DNA from skin cells deposited for that result may be more limited and its
by people who have touched them. intelligence value is decreased. However, once a
Standard DNA tests analyse genetic markers named individual is compared with the mixture
in areas of DNA called short tandem repeats then standard methods for evaluating the
(STRs) that vary greatly between people. By significance can be performed on many mixtures,
testing cells on the tissue, investigators produce with an increasing range of specialist statistical
a full DNA profile that appears to be from a analysis available for complex mixtures. 17
single person. This result can be searched against Specialist investigative tests analyse markers
the profiles of (a) people and (b) other crimes for physical appearance including eye, hair and
held on the National DNA Database. Police are skin colour. These may provide intelligence leads
notified if the profile matches a named person, about the general appearance of the offender
who can then be interviewed. Intelligence in cases where a DNA profile from a crime
information can be obtained if the profile stain has not produced any matches on DNA
matches samples from other crimes. At the same database searches and there is no eyewitness
time, individuals that do not match the profile evidence to describe the offender.
are eliminated from enquiries. In the short term, the police are testing rapid
If no matches are obtained in the UK, the DNA devices that can analyse reference and
police may consider searching international DNA crime samples in two hours, producing profiles
databases. The standard test contains all of the suitable for DNA database searches. This would
DNA markers needed for searches of European provide reference and crime profiles and allow
DNA databases, for example. DNA tests are a suspect to be included or eliminated from an
currently available that analyse more than 24 investigation within custody time limits.
STR areas of DNA, including all of those present Longer-term research is currently directed
in both the European Standard Set and the US towards Next Generation Sequencing (NGS)
CODIS system, enabling wider international systems, which combine and extend all of the
searches. These are not performed routinely in applications listed so far. A single test will not
England and Wales or Northern Ireland, but are only analyse many more STRs, but it will do
used in Scotland. so at a greater level of discrimination. It will
If no matches to named individuals are also include Y chromosome markers, physical
obtained then familial searches for relatives such markers and ancestry informative tests. These
as parent, child or sibling can be performed for are already being used for medical applications,
intelligence purposes. Familial leads for male and similar systems useful for forensic work are
samples can be followed up by testing markers being evaluated for future implementation, once
(called Y STRs) on the Y chromosome, which is suitable DNA databases and methods have been
inherited through the male line. This means that produced, evaluated and validated.
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
they may be important from a justice system whether there is any evidential basis for the
perspective, they may command less attention anecdotal 90% attrition rate, and if so to set out
from the police executive which has more the cause and effect landscape with the clear aim
influence over funding. of supporting future strategic forensic policy in
The authors of a 2005 UK Home Office the justice system.
research study on attrition in volume crime
presented an optimistic picture about the THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF
contribution of forensic science in ensuring FORENSIC SCIENCE
conviction in such crimes11. They cited the The ethical status of forensic science has seen
science’s ability to create strong “first links” dramatic changes over recent years. We have
between suspects and offences, as well as the come a long way from the miscarriages of justice
“principal information needed to make a case of the 1970s and 1980s (John Preece, and the
against a suspect”, and that this had changed Birmingham Six, for example) which highlighted
from a previous situation in which forensic shortcomings in laboratory systems and processes
evidence was merely used for corroboration. and heralded the introduction of formal quality
Most importantly, though, they found that management. These days there is a requirement
forensic science did not improve the generally for internationally-accredited quality systems
high attrition rate within volume crime. This in most forensic laboratories (see Chapter 3),
is because forensic evidence was either not except in the newer disciplines such as digital
collected in efficient ways – in household forensics (see Chapter 7), and fingerprints (with
burglary cases, for example, it may be collected its very different origin in the police service),
as a way to reassure the victim, rather than where these are still being developed. A Forensic
because of its likely efficacy – or that it was not Regulator (currently non-statutory) has been
18 collected at all from those crime scenes (such as introduced to develop and oversee standards
vehicle crimes) where it would be more likely to and codes of conduct and practice; although it
prevent attrition11. should be noted that this superintendence only
From recent literature on forensic science, applies to forensic providers to the prosecution.
attrition, and the Criminal Justice System, it may Scientists have also been required to interpret the
be suggested that while the growth of forensic significance of their findings in a more ‘scientific’
science methods and applications has given way, using statistical approaches to support their
cause for optimism, significant discrepancies otherwise almost entirely subjective assessments,
exist in the effective management of the science and to set out the basis of their opinion in their
and its resources. Though the findings of the witness statements so that this can be more
studies cited here have served to circumscribe effectively assessed by others (see Chapter 4).
this problem, none of them have dealt with it to One interesting development is the increase
the extent of offering detailed remedial policy in forensic work being conducted within police
recommendations. The following chapters of this services. Many police services have established
report will help to set out the foundations upon or extended their own forensic screening units
which future government strategy can be built which undertake initial examinations of items
by the integration of well-informed, cohesive and to varying extents. As a consequence of this,
collaborative policy making. external suppliers receive significantly fewer
In addition, Northumbria University is now items for examination or review, and sometimes
funding a research project to explore precisely receive only samples taken from such items. This
the areas of potentially significant attrition equates to a substantial shift in some of the work
described in this chapter. The programme, from external to in-house police facilities. At the
led by Karen Squibb-Williams, will explicitly extreme end of the scale is the Metropolitan
concern itself with the passage of cases involving Police Laboratory, re-created after the closure of
forensic science and scientific methodologies, the FSS. This now provides the vast majority of
from the criminal investigation phase through forensic laboratory services for what is by far the
to the prosecution process, as well as ‘case largest police service in England and Wales. Use of
management’ (which means different things to digital forensics is rising rapidly, reflecting trends in
different organisations). A key aim is to establish modern life, and much of this work is also being
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN CONTEXT
CASE STUDY
A PARADIGM SHIFT IN
UK FORENSIC SCIENCE
I
NIAMH NIC DAEID, Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee
to commission checks of the prosecution’s in terms of driving down the cost of services,
scientific evidence means that the safety net of reducing case turnaround times, maintaining
proper independent peer review risks growing quality and inspiring innovation, through market
increasingly thin. competition and professional variety. Without
Adding to the risks is the fact that there is this, police spend on forensics would have been
currently no requirement for forensic scientists much higher, and it is arguable whether some
to be individually accredited. It is still perfectly of the most complex, high-profile cases would
possible for a scientist with an impressive have been solved (including, for example,
academic or industrial pedigree to present those of Damilola Taylor, Rachel Nickell and
themselves as an expert without a proper Stephen Lawrence). But the market remains
understanding of operational facts of life, fragile in areas (see Chapter 2 case study p29).
and how context can turn scientific findings Providers are engaged in what some of them
on their head. An attempt to establish such privately describe as ‘a race to the bottom’
an accreditation body – the Council for the commercially (i.e. that the market is becoming
Registration of Forensic Practitioners (CRFP) – overly competitive, with the dangers that
was abandoned when it became apparent that standards will slip or that firms will withdraw
it was unlikely ever to be self-funding. Other from the market). And the provision of forensic
countries (e.g. the Netherlands) have accepted science to the criminal justice process is
that such funding is a state responsibility. But increasingly fragmented, having been allowed
the UK relies instead on aspects of the quality to evolve with insufficient strategic focus or
systems in place in some laboratories, and direction, and without effective consultation of
voluntary adherence to codes of conduct and all relevant stakeholders.
practice. This is unlikely to be sufficient to The closure of the FSS in 2012 could be
allay concerns about scientists caught up in the regarded as an early example of, amongst 21
prosecution ‘machine’, and experts ‘for hire’ by other things, the harshness of the forensic
the defence. science market. The House of Commons
Much has been learned in recent years Science and Technology Committee report1
particularly from the work of Itiel Dror about on the Forensic Science Service in 2011
the consequences of a range of cognitive biases, concluded that its “dire financial position
or the risk of confirmatory interpretation of appears to have arisen from a complex
scientific evidence (see Chapter 4). Important combination of factors, principally the shrinking
experiments have been conducted with both forensics market, driven by increasing police
fingerprint and more recently DNA experts, in-sourcing of forensic science services, and
which show that their conclusions can be a forensic procurement framework that has
influenced by the information with which they driven down prices and does not adequately
were initially supplied. We need to work hard recognise the value of complex forensic
on developing a better understanding of this services”. When the FSS closed, there was
risk, and finding cost-efficient ways to ensure apparently little that could be ‘saved’ of
any potential bias is filtered out – in relation to the organisation which had hitherto been
experts for both the prosecution and defence. servicing approximately 60% of the external
forensic requirement. We are aware of other
CONCLUSIONS casualties in the market, and of concern about
The UK has a proud and illustrious history in the wisdom of investing in it at the current
forensic science. It has shown that it can take time – as predicted by the 2013 report on
bold and imaginative steps and make them forensic science by the House of Commons
work. It is still the only country (in England Science and Technology Committee, in which it
and Wales at least) to have privatised all of commented that “there is great concern about
its forensic science services for the Criminal the future of the forensics market and that
Justice System (apart from fingerprints, for forensic science providers may not be willing
historical reasons, and the recent trend to invest further in a shrinking market”2.
towards law enforcement in-sourcing). In our view, the UK urgently needs a national
Privatisation has been a resounding success, strategy covering all aspects of forensic science
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CHAPTER 2
F
deliverable forensic science strategy.
orensic science is one of the most widely contribution, allowing forensic science to play a
known and least understood areas of significant role in identifying potential suspects
scientific endeavour. The interaction where there are no investigative leads has a match
between criminal investigation, justice rate of over 60% with DNA profiles obtained from
and science is a complex dynamic with its own samples taken from a crime scene or victim1. With
unique set of challenges, but it offers one of the a shift to cybercrime and the dramatic proliferation
strongest safeguards in the Criminal Justice System of digital devices, the relatively new area of digital
against false allegation and wrongful conviction. forensics is now becoming an integral part of many
Although the end user of forensic science in the investigations and prosecutions (see Chapter 7).
Criminal Justice System is ultimately the courts – However, the core forensic process of assessment,
or indeed the jury – the vast majority of forensic retrieval, analysis, interpretation and presentation of
24 science activity takes place much earlier in the expert evidence is essentially the same for digital
criminal investigation process. forensics as it is for traditional forensics. If there is
From the initial report or allegation of a crime, one constant in the practice of forensic science,
forensic practitioners are engaged in gathering it is that it is changing and evolving in response to
evidence and establishing whether a crime has different challenges and opportunities. These are
been committed. Throughout an investigation, examined in more detail in three case studies in
forensic science will be used to establish the this chapter, which outline the different perspectives
sequence of events, validate the accounts of of commercial forensic service providers (see p29),
witnesses and victims, eliminate and identify academia (see p30) and policymakers (see p27).
potential suspects and provide the basis for a
criminal charge. Once an individual has been CHALLENGES IN FORENSIC SCIENCE
charged with a criminal offence, the forensic Some branches of forensic science – such as the
practitioner will consider alternative scenarios, identification of illegal drugs or the classification
and will also be the subject of close scrutiny and of a firearm – are obligatory, and limited law
challenge within our adversarial criminal justice enforcement activity could occur without
system. There are, of course, a large number of them. Moreover, the information gathered from
crimes in which forensic science does not feature identifying illegal firearms and drugs has an
(such as minor theft). But crimes where there important role in informing our understanding of
is a significant physical interaction between the this criminality, helping to frame legislation aimed
suspect and the crime scene or victim can provide at deterring or reducing crime and minimising
the greatest opportunity for forensic science its impact on society. The challenge for law
to solve the crime, eliminate the innocent from enforcement is to ensure that forensic science is
investigations, and bring offenders to justice. focused on those crimes and opportunities for
In cases involving serious violence, sexually- detection that will provide a useful outcome, given
motivated crimes, and acquisitive crime such as the current climate of limited and reducing funding.
burglary or vehicle crime, forensic science has As powerful as DNA profiling has become in its
made a long-standing and significant contribution. sensitivity and power to discriminate individuals,
The introduction of forensic databases of the major challenge today is to identify the DNA
fingerprints and DNA profiles has enhanced this of the criminal against a background of DNA from
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE
the victim, or a range of other individuals who may IF THERE IS ONE CONSTANT IN THE
have visited the location of the crime. If the DNA
cannot be associated with a particular body fluid
PRACTICE OF FORENSIC SCIENCE,
or cell type, or cannot be related to a particular IT IS THAT IT IS CHANGING AND
activity, then the best DNA science in the world
will have little relevance to the investigation of a
EVOLVING IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENT
crime by law enforcement agencies. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES.
As well as providing a useful outcome for law
enforcement, the challenge for forensic science
practitioners is to produce results in minutes and
hours, rather than days or weeks. The sooner provision of forensic science within a wider strategy.
an offender is identified and apprehended, the This is needed not only to manage risk, but to
less opportunity they have to commit more exploit the agility and access to innovation that
crime; earlier intervention may also reduce future is available from the private sector. However, the
offending or divert individuals from a career of commercial relationships between police forces
crime. The most recent advances in Automated and commercial providers are not mature, and
Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS), rapid are based on transaction rather than partnership.
DNA profiling devices, drugs analysers and digital- This is the result of a procurement framework
device data-recovery kiosks provide the prospect based on standardised products that do not allow
of ‘real-time forensics’ that will change not only for innovation or integration between public and
the forensic operating model but the policing and private providers. To ensure a sustainable forensic
investigative models. science provision, it is important that commercial
providers are viable and successful businesses:
COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATIONS consequently, the commercial sector needs to have 25
The UK is the only country in the world to have long-term clarity about the demand and capabilities
introduced the commercial provision of forensic required by the police service and Criminal Justice
science. This can be traced back to April 1991, System in order to make investment decisions.
when two keys changes were made: the formation Real-time forensics will require close
of the Forensic Science Service as an executive collaboration with commercial companies
agency of the Home Office, combining the six and relationships that are based on long-term
Home Office Forensic Science Laboratories and a partnerships. The current provider base will need
Home Office Central Research Establishment into to change fundamentally, reducing its reliance on
one organisation; and the introduction of direct conventional DNA profiling as a revenue stream
charging for forensic science services. in favour of a different business model based on
The advent of direct charging followed a period service integration and on-site or remote testing
of crisis in the late 1980s where staff shortages and analysis. This change will need to be managed
and backlogs led to forensic examinations taking with the commercial sector as partners, but with
many months to complete. Prior to being given a clearly-defined role and purpose that allows for
agency status, forensic science was funded on the major structural change within forensic science to
basis of capitation i.e. the number of police officers realise the benefits and reduce costs.
or establishment. The move to direct charging
was not to introduce a market, but to change the EXPERT EVIDENCE
basis of funding so that police forces would be free There has been keen interest from senior judges
to spend more on forensic science, allowing for in the progress of forensic science, not least from
capacity to increase. the Lord Chief Justice; the admissibility of expert
So the commercialisation of forensic science was evidence was the subject of a very thorough and
by accident rather than design, and the formation detailed review by the Law Commission2 . The
of a stable and sustainable commercial forensic judiciary and forensic practitioners have a common
provision is not an end in itself. While commercial purpose in delivering accurate and reliable expert
companies will have an important role to play in evidence, with quality being non-negotiable. The
forensic science delivery and improvement, there establishment of an independent Forensic Science
needs to be a clear purpose for the commercial Regulator in the UK – the first in the world – is a
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CASE STUDY
THE POLICYMAKER’S
PERSPECTIVE
T
AMANDA COOPER, SRO Digital Policing and Science, Home Office
he Home Office is responsible for glass. A kitchen window and an internal glass door had
policymaking and legislation for been broken and computer equipment and phones
the use of forensic science in law stolen, along with the keys to the family car. When a
enforcement. We advise ministers crime scene investigator (CSI) attended the scene
of the risks and opportunities in this area, as well as they identified that the offender had cut themselves
running the national DNA and fingerprint databas- and left blood on the internal door.
es. In that context, we see our role as setting the The blood from the internal door was deemed
strategic direction rather than influencing operation- suitable for processing using RapidHIT® and a result
al policing directly. was obtained from a speculative search of the DNA
For example, we support and encourage police Database within a few hours. The search matched
to make the most of the opportunities offered with a suspect already being held in custody, but who
by the Police Innovation Fund (PIF). Worth £70 was denying any involvement in the crime. Once the
million for 2015/16, the PIF is designed to incentivise potential forensic evidence obtained from RapidHIT® 27
collaboration, support improved police ICT and was put to the suspect he admitted to the burglary.
digital working and enable Police and Crime As a result of this, the police were able to recover the
Commissioners to invest in other innovative deliver y majority of the stolen property and return it to the
approaches with the potential to improve policing rightful owner.
and deliver further efficiency in the future. The rapid result enabled the offender to be
All bids are subject to a robust and objective charged and remanded to court the next day,
assessment against the published criteria. This therefore reducing the officer’s investigative time and
involves an initial panel assessment, followed costs, and avoiding the costs of any bail. Overall, the
by further consideration by a senior oversight time from a CSI attending the scene to charging an
group that provides advice to ministers. All of individual was approximately 48 hours.
the successful bids have the potential to improve Alongside ensuring that a new piece of technology
efficiency and contribute to improved value for can be effectively used in the investigation of crimes,
money for the taxpayer. the role for policy is to ensure the wider consideration
For example, Lancashire Constabulary was of areas such as legislation, market impact, regulation,
successful in its bid for innovation funding to pilot and Criminal Justice System (CJS) efficiency and
RapidHIT® DNA profiling. This technology can reforms. All of these areas need appropriate handling,
deliver a DNA profile within 2 hours, which is then and any changes to methodologies across the supply
speculatively searched against the National DNA chain of investigations must be considered in the
Database. If a match is obtained, it is verified by context of systems thinking.
conventional DNA profiling of a duplicate sample. Addressing how aspects of forensic science in the
Lancashire Constabulary is currently in year 2 of CJS are governed and organised is a core element of
their pilot and is using it to process blood stains from current work on the Home Office Forensic Strategy,
crime scenes in cases such as burglary and vehicle particularly the regulation of activities, the early
crime. There have been a number of successful support on experimentation and the introduction of
outcomes using this technology. For example, new technologies and applications. Achieving this in a
RapidHIT® played a pivotal role in the case of a way that keeps pace with technology development
recent residential burglary. The resident had been and with changing crime types and crime modus
asleep but was awoken by the sound of breaking operandi is a key objective.
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
from the defendant” or “the blood stain came operational and business models that is needed to
from an unrelated individual”. deliver significant improvements.
• At activity level, the forensic practitioner There have been major technical advances
addresses more complex interpretative issues in fingerprint search algorithms, next-generation
about the actions of individuals in committing sequencing, facial identification and digital
or being the victim of a crime. This will require forensics. To harness and coordinate research and
knowledge and understanding of persistence, development of these technologies, and to develop
transfer and background levels of forensic contact the real-time forensics capability, there needs to
traces such as body fluids or gun shot residues. be an academic effort that draws together and
This knowledge can be used to evaluate the coordinates universities and research organisations.
evidence, by assigning probabilities to the findings We could also look to international collaboration: for
(given each of the competing propositions) to example, the EU 2020 Horizon programme offers
produce a Likelihood Ratio. This is of greater the opportunity to work with European forensic
value to the courts, but the forensic practitioner agencies.
needs to have a full understanding of the context For policymakers in government, the goal
of the case, and what is alleged by the parties must be to come forward with a coherent
involved. To bring some consistency to the strategy – or at least a strategic framework – for
evaluation and expression of the value or weight the development of forensic science in the UK,
of the forensic evidence, forensic experts can use recognising all of its complexities and challenges.
a verbal scale that is based on a Likelihood Ratios Central to this is the next generation of science
and ranges from “no support”, to “moderate and technology that will deliver rapid results and
support” through to “extremely strong support” offer a wealth of information about criminals
for one proposition over the alternative. It will from the contact traces they leave on the victim
28 take some time for the courts to fully embrace or at the crime scene. This will also bring to the
this approach but in my experience there is fore the importance of ethical and human rights
wide acceptance and support for this across the considerations to the forensic arena (see Chapter
forensic profession. 9 case study p100). The growth of cybercrime
will also see radical changes in the role of forensic
CONCLUSION science and the need to develop new tools and
Forensic science constitutes a relatively small part technologies to apply the traditional forensic
of the overall scientific effort in the UK. As such, it process to the virtual environment (see Chapter 7).
has never sustained a substantial academic research The common theme for policymakers who are
base, instead relying on innovation in other fields (e.g. developing a strategy for forensic science is the
medical, pharmaceutical or semiconductor sectors) need for a consistent and corporate approach to
and then adopting new technologies as they emerge. delivery, development and governance across the
However, this situation has reached a low point forensic science sector. This does not necessarily
in the last five years, with a small and fragmented mean a single organisation, but it does argue
research base in forensic science that does not allow strongly for a means of engaging all of the partners
for the effective development and implementation within a governance and strategic framework
of large-scale innovation and the application of that allows for the delivery and development of
new science8. There is no central government forensic science in a way that sustains the current
organisation that has a track record in delivering capability, improves performance and knowledge
innovation in forensic science and expert evidence sharing, and reduces cost. This will require a much
to the Criminal Justice System. greater degree of government coordination and
Given the range of scientific and technical collaboration between professions to deliver
developments in other fields, the focus for innovation stability, innovation and change. The benefits are
in forensic science should be to take advantage of substantial and achievable – but the risks of failure,
science and technology that already exists or to resulting in the degradation of forensic capability in
develop science that is well advanced (see Chapters England and Wales, are equally substantial and will
16 and 17). What is lacking is an organisation or be much more costly.
structure that will translate this to forensic science
and bring about the transformational change in
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE
CASE STUDY
THE COMMERCIAL
PROVIDERS’ PERSPECTIVE
I
ROGER ROBSON, Managing Director of Forensic Access
t is difficult to accurately determine the cases. It also raises significant concerns about a
revenue generated by the UK commercial growth of unsolved cases in the future.
forensic services industry. As awareness There are also growing questions about how
of the relevance of forensic skills in other much responsibility the police should have for
industries increases, and technology develops, there providing independent, unbiased and objective
is undoubtedly a broader range of customers. scientific evidence. The US National Academy of
This might be expected to result in an increasingly Sciences’ report ‘Strengthening Forensic Science in
buoyant UK commercial forensic market. the United States: A Path Forward’3 recognised this
In some areas that is certainly the case. However, as a problem back in 2009. As I write this case study,
the largest influence on the market is inevitably the UK government is currently drawing up a much-
exerted by its largest customer: the police service. needed strategy for forensic science provision over
Following the closure of the Forensic Science Service the next 5 years.
in 2012, the police rapidly accelerated its in-sourced Meanwhile, the profession remains determined 29
forensics capability and reduced its out-sourced to overcome the current difficulties. The financial
capability1, and it seems likely that this trend will cuts have prompted a sense of urgency for research
continue. and implementation of new technologies. It
This decision, together with a reduction in remains extremely difficult to get funding for basic
recorded crime and further cuts in forensic research into forensic science projects, but this has
spending, has contributed to an increasingly fragile encouraged collaboration between commercial
commercial market. In 2013, this was recognised providers, industrial and academic partners. Apart
as a significant risk by the House of Commons from improving services through competition, the
Science & Technology Committee2, and in my view commercial providers have also formed associations
nothing has happened to change this since then. such as the Association of Forensic Science Providers
While venture capitalists consider their options as and now work in unison on certain projects.
the UK commercial market continues to decline, Markets inevitably change over time, with
those remaining companies in the UK market are provision of services dictated largely by customer
now chasing overseas business to remain profitable. demands. Commercial providers have to respond
Indeed, the Science and Technology Committee2 increasingly quickly to meet the changing trends
and commercial forensic-service providers are asking in crime and counteract new tools used by the
questions about whether the UK market will survive. criminal fraternity. At a time when we have so much
The reduction in market size2 has been new technology to bring to forensic science, we
accompanied by a shift in emphasis between need to remember the importance of a holistic
different forensic disciplines. Traditional areas such approach that helps to ensure that we use the right
fires, firearms and trace evidence (such as paint, glass techniques at the right time in the right sequence
and textile fibres) have dramatically decreased in to ensure reliability, robustness and value for money
favour of DNA and fingerprints, and the exponential from forensics. If these are lost, it would damage our
growth of digital forensics. Consequently, not only Criminal Justice System and public confidence in it.the
is the market much less attractive to potential right time in the right sequence to ensure reliability,
investors, but it may be more difficult to put together robustness and value for money from forensics. If
the elegant scientific investigation strategies that these are lost, it would damage our Criminal Justice
helped to solve some of the UK’s most high profile System and public confidence in it.
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CASE STUDY
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN
HIGHER EDUCATION
T
GERALDINE FAHY, University of Kent
he Quality Assurance Agency for consist of two groups: generic standards and
Higher Education (QAA) defines area-specific standards3. The problem is that
forensic science as “the application myriad disciplines can combine with the term
of science to serve the purposes ‘forensic’, making it extremely difficult to teach
of the law” . Rapid changes in forensic science
1
‘forensic science’ in a university setting. In reality,
– stemming from policy responses, increased there is no single subject called ‘forensic science’,
commercialisation and the advancement of and attempting to educate students under this
scientific techniques2 – have led to an increase in umbrella term produces a lot of people with
undergraduate and graduate courses in overview knowledge of different subjects, but
forensic science at UK universities. But these with insufficient detailed practical experience in
courses suffer from a mismatch between what any of them.
is taught and what the industry actually requires, For example, the only career path that
30 which urgently needs to be addressed. Given utilises the majority of focus areas covered in an
that tomorrow’s forensic scientists are those we undergraduate forensic science course is that
train today, it is paramount that we get these of a Scene of Crime Officer (SOCO). However,
academic courses right. even this job requires further training that is
Universities are businesses, and often use specific to the police force you work for, and
a degree in forensic science as a selling point in some cases a degree may not be necessary
to help feed the constant demand to increase to get a SOCO position. As a result, most
student numbers. Courses with a ‘forensic’ prefix universities try to ensure that their graduates
appear more attractive and are often easier have learned transferable skills that increase their
to market than chemistry or biology courses. chances of gaining employment, often outside
At undergraduate level, these courses offer an forensic science.
overview of a wide range of laboratory and The rapid rise in forensic science
field techniques such as microscopy, analytical undergraduate courses across the UK means
chemistry, DNA analysis, ballistics, fire and that increased learning and teaching quality
explosives, trace evidence, incident investigation is vital, particularly at a time when so much
and expert witness training. Some undergraduate attention is paid to accountability in teaching
courses, and many postgraduate courses, also across UK universities3. Courses already need
provide an opportunity to learn more specialised to be accredited by The Chartered Society of
disciplines such as forensic anthropology, Forensic Sciences (CSFS), using standards that
archaeology, botany, entomology, odontology, cover the main aspects of incident investigation
podiatry, digital forensics, and so on. and digital forensics4. However, the applicability of
Yet there are currently no requirements these standards and their correspondence with
for both A-level biology and chemistry for the the QAA forensic science benchmark criteria are
majority of UK forensic science undergraduate not always clear-cut. For example, while digital
courses. Consequently, a large amount of the forensics is an area that has grown rapidly in
first year at university is spent training students recent years, and is itself an area of accreditation
in basic laboratory skills. QAA benchmark under the CSFS, it is only touched upon briefly
standards for forensic science education at in the QAA guidelines and remains a small part
undergraduate and graduate levels essentially of most general forensic science undergraduate
FORENSIC SCIENCE IN PRACTICE
courses. That makes it virtually impossible for lack of job opportunities (even unpaid) and
an undergraduate student on a forensic science the associated high cost to either a student or 31
course to fully grasp this technologically complex a university, this is unlikely to be feasible. The
sub-discipline without completing a specific second option is to do away with courses
digital forensics course. with the generic title ‘forensic science’ and
At the heart of the problem with forensic focus more on subject-specific forensics at
science courses is a distinct lack of understanding undergraduate level: forensic DNA analysis,
between educators and course developers, and forensic anthropology, forensic toxicology, and so
the forensic science industry. While more and on. Retaining the ‘forensic’ prefix should ensure
more universities and programme convenors that courses remain attractive, but offer a much
have links to industry, and ask for input towards greater depth of training and experience.
course design, many develop courses based
on programme outlines of similar courses in
other universities, or using the QAA Forensic
Science benchmark standards, none of which
address real-life needs of forensic science
providers. Additionally, resources and course
learning outcomes required by universities
can sometimes limit the amount of practical
training that undergraduates receive. The ethos
of forensic science is that no two scenes or
incidents are the same and should be viewed
without preconception. However, many forensic
science role-play activities in universities concern
standard ‘common’ scenes and incidents.
There are two ways forward. Firstly, if the
content of forensic science undergraduate
courses remains the same then a year in
professional practice must be included as a
standard component. However, given the distinct
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CHAPTER 3
ASSURANCE –
STANDARDS,VALIDATION
AND ACCREDITATION
JOSEPHINE BUNCH, Quality assurance (QA) demonstrates that methods are fit for purpose before they are
National Physical implemented, and ensures that they remain so during use. This is underpinned by an
Laboratory increasingly well-defined quality system, overseen by the Forensic Science Regulator (FSR).
Additional confidence could be realised by awarding statutory powers to the FSR, as well as
Q
implementing further regulation to assure the skills of practitioners and providers.
uality assurance (QA) refers to selection, instruction and use of experts. Recent
the range of practices employed updates to the criminal justice procedure rules
to ensure that measurements provide guidance around the validation of
and evidence are reliable, methods used by witnesses1.
including internal and external quality control. The importance of quality assurance
QA demonstrates that analytical methods are procedures in forensic science is now well
fit for purpose before they are implemented – recognised, and confidence in forensic science
32 this involves an assessment of the equipment, and forensic science providers is underpinned
standard operating procedures and the provision via an increasingly well-defined quality system,
of trained staff who make judgements about overseen by the Forensic Science Regulator
their findings. QA also provides ongoing (FSR). Forensic quality standards in the UK
evidence that the methods remain fit for comprise two international standards (ISO17025
purpose. for accreditation of laboratory activities2 and
For all laboratory-based methods, assurance ISO17020 for scene of crime analysis3) and
procedures should be based on a system of the FSR Codes of Practice and Conduct, which
standards, validation and accreditation. Where detail the requirements of forensic service
required, measurement traceability ensures that providers at organisational, technical and
all steps in a procedure can be queried and practitioner levels. Expert witnesses are bound
validated by reference to documented results, by the Criminal Procedure Rules and Criminal
calibrations and standards, through an unbroken Practice Directions4, which work alongside the
chain of comparisons that all have stated FSR Codes of Practice and Conduct to increase
measurement uncertainties. Forensic science the overall assurance of forensic science quality.
laboratories or providers have a significant This framework provides a mechanism to
role in providing reliable and credible evidence objectively demonstrate the reliability, accuracy
that may be presented as part of a criminal and limitations of methods, and the competence
investigation or a trial. of the organisations supplying forensic science.
Forensic science providers may be private
companies, government agencies, public THE FORENSIC SCIENCE
organisations, academic research departments REGULATOR
and law enforcement agencies, based in the The post of FSR was established in 2007 and is
UK or internationally. The majority of expert currently held by Dr Gillian Tully. The Regulator
witnesses for forensic science are engaged by the is a public appointee, sponsored by the Home
police at the investigative stage of a criminal case. Office, who ensures that the provision of
However guidance from the Crown Prosecution forensic science services across the Criminal
Service (CPS) also provides prosecutors with Justice System (CJS) is subject to an appropriate
practical guidelines on issues relating to the regime of scientific quality standards. The
ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION
CASE STUDY
UKAS ACCREDITATION:
PROVIDING CONFIDENCE IN
FORENSIC SCIENCE
F
MALCOLM HYND, External Affairs Manager, UK Accreditation Service
orensic science plays an essential of staff, the validity of the techniques used,
role in the effectiveness of the the suitability of the equipment and the
Criminal Justice System (CJS). To appropriateness of the environment where
sustain confidence in that forensic examinations are performed.
information, it is important to consider how it These standards are not used exclusively for
is produced: not only in terms of its scientific forensic science, so UKAS uses an additional
accuracy, but also to show that samples are guidance document3 (ILAC G19) that details
handled appropriately to avoid contamination, further expectations in the forensics area. If
and to demonstrate the impartiality and in- the organisation demonstrates that it meets
34 tegrity of the staff undertaking the work. This all the relevant criteria then it will be granted
assessment of organisations offering forensic accreditation for specific activities. However,
science services is known as accreditation. accreditation is an on-going process that
However, the term ‘forensic science’ covers requires annual surveillance visits and a full
a multitude of different fields, ranging from reassessment every four years.
the conventional analytical techniques used in UKAS is a signatory to international mutual
the identification of drugs through to more recognition agreements with accreditation
interpretive examinations of handwriting or bodies in other countries, so there is assurance
blood pattern analysis. It also covers new and that the forensic science services delivered
constantly developing areas such as digital by UK-accredited organisations would also
forensics and cybercrime. The challenge for be recognised overseas. In the same way,
those involved in accreditation is to define the accreditation bodies in other economies use
expectations that must be met by such diverse the same standards and guidance documents,
and evolving areas, while offering the same so the results provided by laboratories
confidence in the delivered outcome. accredited by them can be equally well-trusted
As the UK’s sole national accreditation body, here. This becomes ever more important
the UK Accreditation Service (UKAS) visits as crime, particularly cybercrime, transcends
organisations that undertake forensic work to international boundaries.
assess and evaluate their compliance against Indeed, the fast-moving developments in
the internationally recognised standards ISO/ cybercrime present particular challenges for
SO/IEC 17025 for laboratories1, and ISO/IEC forensic laboratories and accreditation. For
17020 for scene of crime2. These standards the laboratories, data that can be stored
include requirements to implement an anywhere in the world is increasingly difficult
appropriate management system, including to identify and access, and ever more complex
policies and procedures for internal auditing, encryption methods need to be circumvented.
control of documents, management of Accreditation assessments similarly need to
complaints and the definition of key roles and keep up with technological developments, and
responsibilities. They also include technical suitable technical expertise secured, to ensure
requirements relating to the competence that assessments can be carried out from a
ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION
forensics, such as ISO/IEC 27037:2012 (ref. 19), The five key requirements are:
which provides guidelines for specific activities 1 To comply with the Codes of Conduct and
in the identification, collection, acquisition and Practice set down by the independent Forensic
preservation of potential digital evidence. It Science Regulator
should be noted that this is only a guidance 2 To ensure that Quality Standards and
document and not an accreditation standard. A Assurance processes are applied, which are
Digital Forensics Validation Guidance document nationally consistent and compliant with
is in preparation by the FSR, due for release appropriate ISO standards, UKAS accreditation,
this year. EU directives and clear development and
validation processes
VALIDATION AND REQUIREMENTS 3 To provide clear communication and
OF THE CROWN PROSECUTION interpretation of scientific processes,
SERVICE procedures, strengths, weaknesses and meaning
The FSR requires FSPs to ensure that 4 To engage with Streamlined Forensic
all methods routinely employed within Reporting (SFR) process associated with
the Criminal Justice System, whether for proportionate prosecution requirements
intelligence or evidential use, will be validated 5 To be fully aware and compliant with Criminal
prior to each use on live casework material. Procedure and Investigations Act Disclosure
Validation is a critical aspect of quality and Expert Witness obligations, including
assurance, and is defined by the FSR as the disclosure of details or algorithms and
“confirmation, through the assessment statistical analysis.
of existing objective evidence or through
experiment that a method, process or device ASSURANCE IN R&D AND
is fit (or remains fit) for the specific purpose INNOVATION IN FORENSIC 37
intended. The provider must demonstrate the SCIENCE
reliability of the procedure in-house against Future progress in academic and commercial
any documented performance characteristics research, and the development of new methods
of that procedure”. Establishing the intended for forensic science applications, will require
use and limitations of a developed method are new standards to be developed. It is the FSR’s
important aspects of validation. A validation role to assist with these activities. The typical
exercise should establish key performance development of new ISO standards involves:
indicators such as accuracy, precision and 1 Research leading to peer reviewed publication
limitation (see Figure 1). 2 Experimental validation via international inter-
The responsibility for validation rests with laboratory studies to establish (i) Repeatability
the forensic science provider, not the FSR, and of measurements made by the same method,
will be reviewed as part of any accreditation by the same laboratory, by the same operator,
assessment by the accreditation body, normally on the same equipment within a short
UKAS24 (see case study p34). The Regulator period using identical test material and (ii)
should only be informed of the intention to Reproducibility of measurements made by
implement a new method if the introduction the same method, but carried out by different
of a scientific method has not previously been laboratories, different operators and different
employed within forensic science in the UK, or equipment, using identical test material. Inter-
where analysis of the impact to the Criminal laboratory studies are used to develop a
Justice System suggests a significant change in protocol, which forms the basis of the new
capabilities. standard
Additional quality assurance is provided by 3 Submission of new work item proposal to ISO
the CPS, which requires compliance with the 4 Various ballots in ISO, development of an
FSR’s Codes of Practice and with international international consensus and progression of
standards. The CPS has provided a paper draft to published standard
outlining the core foundation principles that
must inform any providers of forensic science Accreditation of new methodologies can
analysis for use in the Criminal Justice System25. be a long and expensive process. The
Figure 1: Outline of the validation process for forensic science methods
Pilot testing
2011 Home Office ‘Report on Research overcome these challenges by bringing together
and Development in Forensic Science’20 those with potential solutions and those who
identified the forensic research landscape as have identified the challenges”. In setting up
fragmented, and recommended increases in formal collaborative activity, the SiG is helping
linkage and communication between forensics address traditional innovation challenges such as
R&D stakeholders, in order to drive forward ownership of intellectual property.
innovation more effectively. The Forensic Science Changes to existing governance processes in
Special Interest Group (SiG) at Innovate UK forensic service procurement might also help
has identified a series of sector challenges, and to standardise the approaches undertaken by
has set up a Forensic Science UK Innovation different FSPs, and bring new techniques to
Database21 to encourage “collaboration to market. The Forensic Market Management
ASSURANCE – STANDARDS, VALIDATION AND ACCREDITATION
Team (FMMT) within the Home Office runs varying degrees of conformity depending on the
the National Forensics Framework, which allows requirements of the end user (the CJS at one end,
the police to purchase forensic services from and perhaps consumer protection at the other).
private sector suppliers22. Forensic services
are categorised into 13 product types (e.g. CONCLUSION
DNA, drugs, footwear, and toxicology) and sold The five requirements from the CPS, together
with details on the precise nature and level of with the FSR’s Codes of Practice and insistence
service required, timescales for delivery, and the that providers adhere to internationally
quality and reporting standards to be met. The recognised standards, form the basis of an
introduction of the FMMT procurement process increasingly well-developed forensic quality
resulted in substantial reductions in the price of system in the UK. International mutual
services23. recognition agreements between international
In addition, due to the non-statutory nature of bodies of accreditation and measurement
the Regulator, in-house forensic services within committees help to ensure that this quality
individual police services do not have to follow infrastructure is fit for purpose on a global scale.
the same procurement framework as private- The forensics landscape is clearly challenging
sector FSPs. Private sector FSPs have raised a from the perspective of assurance, requiring
concern that this may result in some in-house guidance for objective and subjective
laboratories being able to offer cheaper services assessments, delivered to wide ranging end-
by delaying the significant investments required users. An additional layer of confidence in this
to meet and maintain the relevant ISO standards, framework will likely be realised through the
as it is seen as a cost burden to comply22. If found award of statutory powers to the FSR, essential
to be the case, the net result would be market if the FSR is to effectively force providers to
distortion unfavourable to the private-sector FSPs, comply with expected quality standards. 39
who would have to squeeze margins to compete Further regulation is also required to
on price terms, resulting in a loss of profit available improve the assurance of the quality of skills of
to channel back into research and development. practitioners and providers. The UK and Ireland
Research and development is a necessarily Association of Forensic Toxicologists (UKIAFT)
risky endeavour; the presence of large fixed recommends roles and responsibilities that
costs around accreditation of new technologies should be covered by personnel within a forensic
can therefore be a barrier to innovation. Forensic science laboratory, and provides some suggested
science has parallels to other sectors, such as guideline about the qualifications and experience
aerospace and pharmaceutical development, they would expect for staff at different levels,
where simple deregulation is not an option due but minimum requirements should also be
to safety concerns. In an increasingly litigious and demanded by the FSR. Several organisations
risk-averse society, the regulations in these areas offer staff development opportunities: a series
tend to become more stringent. At the same of qualifications, as well as other continuing
time, this must be balanced by need to drive professional development (CPD) opportunities,
technological change for better social outcomes are provided regularly by The Chartered Society
in these sectors, which requires streamlining of Forensic Sciences, and The Forensic Science
of regulation. In forensic science, it is the goal Society has recently developed a number of
of ensuring that justice is served, rather than Certificates of Competence26.
maintaining physical safety, that drives the need These provide a mechanism by which
for accurate and fail-safe process. individuals can demonstrate their competency,
Regardless, there may be significant but to date these have not been widely adopted
opportunities for the forensic science community or required by the regulator. Transparent
in looking to other sectors that have similar recommendation from the FSR of the minimum
high-cost-of-failure markets, to analyse their expected formal qualifications, training and
approach to quality and assurance in order to experience of staff within FSPs, and accredited
share best practice. For instance, accreditation programmes of training and development, will
need not necessarily be a binary factor: one could help further improve the quality of forensic
envisage an operating spectrum of assurance with sciences in the UK.
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CHAPTER 4
COGNITIVE AND
HUMAN FACTORS
ITIEL DROR, University Even with major advances in forensic science, the human examiner will
College London (UCL) continue to play an important role in most forensic decision-making.
& Cognitive Consultants Forensic work often involves interpretation and subjectivity, and hence
International (CCI-HQ) cognitive and human factors are important to ensure high-quality
forensic decisions. To maximise objectivity and decision quality, forensic
examiners should receive cognitive bias training and should evaluate only
T
contextually relevant information.
FORENSIC SCIENCE
FINISHED FILES ARE THE RE Forensic science consists of many different
SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI domains that utilise different types of evidence.
FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH However, in many forensic domains it is the human
THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS… examiner that is central to the forensic work (this
is true in the UK, the US, as well as anywhere
Figure 1: Count how many ‘F’s are in the box
above (please try before continuing). Most people else that forensic work is carried out). The main
see 3 or 4, some 5, but people rarely see all of the reason for this is that there are many subjective
Fs: there are actually 6 of them. The reason that judgements that underpin forensic work.
many people miss some of the Fs is because we are During initial evidence gathering at the crime
experts in reading. Our base-rate experience tells
us (via our unconscious brain) that words such as scene, the crime scene investigation (CSI) examiner
‘of’, ‘the’, and ‘a’ do not carry much meaning and is required to make many decisions, most of which
weight, and therefore, based on our expectation, are subjective. First, they need to decide where to
we tend to automatically ignore them3. look for evidence, and what kind of evidence they
will look for. The CSI is guided by their experience
and expectation. Second, as they look for evidence,
attention, chunking information and reliance on they need to determine whether what they have
top-down information). It is important to note found is actual data (a ‘signal’ such as blood) or just
that these processes occur without awareness: it an artefact (‘noise’ such as dirt). Third, if what they
is a cognitive bias, not an intentional bias. find is actual data, then they need to subjectively
Although such cognitive processes are effective assess the quality and quantity of the evidence
and efficient, they also can lead us astray. By relying to determine if there is sufficient information to
on shortcuts, such as using our expectations warrant its collection and sending it to the forensic
and past experiences to selectively attend to laboratory (e.g. shoe prints found at the crime 41
some information while ignoring the rest, we are scene can be of such low quality and quantity
cognitively biased5. These biases are widespread of information that they do not merit collection,
and have many forms5, and only increase with documentation, and having the forensic laboratory
expertise4: as we have more experience, we are examine them further). Such decisions are critical,
more driven by top-down, conceptually-driven as evidence not collected and sent to the forensic
cognitive processes. These processes and biases laboratory is often lost forever.
are especially powerful when subjective decisions Once evidence is received in the forensic
are involved or when the data is low quality, laboratory, then examiners have to analyse it.
ambiguous, and difficult to determine (as is often Often that process is subjective. Fingerprints,
the case in forensic evidence). for example, are defined mainly by their minutia
Another example of bias is base-rate – the characteristics in the flow of the friction
expectation. When experience provides a clear ridge (see Figure 2).
expectation of the outcome, then that base-
rate expectancy drives our conclusion, even in
the face of contradictory data. If X-ray security Figure 2: Different characteristics (minutia)
screeners in airports do not encounter bombs, present in the friction ridge of fingerprints (e.g.
then they develop an expectation to not find when a ridge divides or ends).
bombs, and are therefore more likely not to find
a bomb even when it is present in the X-ray. Ridge Ending
Similarly, when medical monitors in intensive
care units (ICU) sound false alarms very often,
Enclosure
then the medical staff are likely to ignore
them6. The reason for these biases is that, with
experience, the brain has picked up regularities Bifurcation
in the information it receives and then uses them
to guide future information processing. This is
effective, but it biases how new information is Island
processed.
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
Table 1: The inter-reliability of fingerprinting. Different latent fingerprint examiners looking at the same fingerprints
(A to J) lack consistency in the number of minutia they observe7.
Latent Fingerprint
A B C D E F G H I J
Examiner 1 22 9 15 8 9 3 22 11 7 10
Examiner 2 21 11 25 7 10 9 9 10 6 5
Examiner 3 19 9 18 10 7 9 15 19 6 6
Examiner 4 21 21 29 14 12 9 8 9 4 8
Examiner 5 17 16 15 11 16 9 7 12 5 5
Examiner 6 20 14 22 9 10 7 13 18 7 9
Examiner 7 22 17 15 10 10 8 11 24 8 11
Examiner 8 9 9 19 6 9 8 18 16 9 10
Examiner 9 30 15 25 10 12 12 19 22 12 17
Examiner 10 25 13 18 13 12 10 13 15 7 10
MIN 9 9 15 6 7 3 7 9 4 5
MAX 30 21 29 14 16 12 19 24 12 17
SD 5.49 4.01 4.93 2.49 2.45 2.32 4.25 5.15 2.23 3.54
range 21 12 14 8 9 9 12 15 8 12
42
These minutiae play a critical role in forensic conclude that they were fired from the same
fingerprinting. However, their presence is gun, or whether two fingerprints are ‘sufficiently
subjectively determined. This is evident by similar’ to conclude that they are from the
the lack of reliability and consistency among same person, etc. The subjective nature of such
fingerprint examiners (see Table 1)7. forensic decisions arises from the lack of criteria
The subjectivity in determining the or definition of what constitutes ‘sufficiently
fingerprint characteristic is further apparent similar’.
when examining the lack of consistency of With such subjective decision-making, it is
expert’s judgements with themselves, i.e. their not surprising that different forensic examiners
intra-reliability. Not only are examiners not can reach different conclusions. This pertains to
consistent with one another, but the same many forensic domains, including mixture DNA
forensic fingerprint examiner looking at the (even when identical procedures are used)9,
same print is not always consistent with their and even when statistical tools are used10.
own judgment (see Table 2)7. In fact, in about 10% of the time, the same
The subjectivity underpinning forensic fingerprint expert, examining the same pair of
work is not limited to the perception of fingerprints, will reach different conclusions11.
the evidence, but also to the actual forensic Subjective decisions do not only underpin
conclusions. In many forensic domains, forensic the comparative forensic domains (where
examiners need to decide whether two evidence from the crime scene is compared
patterns are ‘sufficiently similar’ to conclude to a suspect), but also include many forensic
that they originate from the same source8: for domains, such as blood spatter analysis, forensic
example, whether two handwriting patterns anthropology and fire investigations. The
are ‘sufficiently similar’ to conclude that they subjective decision-making even sometimes
were written by the same person, or whether pertains to domains such as drug analysis
two bullet cartridges are ‘sufficiently similar’ to (when one needs to determine if a new
COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS
Table 2: The intra-reliability of fingerprinting. The table presents the difference between the number of minutia that each
expert observes while examining the same fingerprint (A to J) on two separate occasions, i.e. zero indicates consistency7.
Latent Fingerprint
A B C D E F G H I J
Examiner 1 1 1 4 1 1 2 3 2 0 1
Examiner 2 8 3 5 1 1 2 2 5 2 2
Examiner 3 1 3 3 3 6 4 9 9 1 2
Examiner 4 2 3 2 5 0 1 1 0 0 1
Examiner 5 6 2 2 3 4 1 3 3 0 3
Examiner 6 9 4 2 1 4 6 0 5 1 1
Examiner 7 0 4 5 2 4 3 3 7 0 0
Examiner 8 3 1 4 0 6 2 1 4 2 0
Examiner 9 4 3 9 0 4 4 3 1 1 3
Examiner 10 1 0 0 1 4 1 4 1 0 0
Mean 3.5 2.4 3.6 1.7 3.4 2.6 2.9 3.7 0.7 1.3
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
TAKEN TOGETHER, THE NATURES how they integrate it within other lines of
evidence (see case study, p50).
OF HUMAN COGNITION AND
OF FORENSIC WORK PRODUCE A RESEARCH ABOUT COGNITIVE
BIAS IN FORENSIC SCIENCE
PROBLEMATIC CONCOCTION. Until about a decade ago, there was very
little research into the performance of human
forensic examiners. The issue of whether they
can be biased by irrelevant context, as well as
they decided and why. Second, identification their inter – and intra-reliability, had basically
decisions are almost always verified, and hence not been studied in any depth. However,
introduce a base-rate bias (see above). in the past few years we have seen a big
increase in researching this area (both within
3. At court forensic science as well as in other scientific
The presentation of evidence in an adversarial domains19).
legal system is inherently problematic. Although The growing literature includes meta-
the court wants to rely on and use science, analytically quantifying the reliability and
science is often misused and abused in the biasability of forensic experts20, as well
court. Science within the adversarial system as specific research studies showing that
is used by the prosecution to make a case irrelevant contextual information can
that the suspect is guilty, and by the defence bias forensic examination most often.
to make the case that the suspect is innocent. This research includes areas such as face
Although prosecutors’ duty is to do justice, not comparisons21, forensic anthropology22,
44 merely to obtain a conviction (see, for example, bite-marks23, shoe prints24, firearms25,
the US Supreme Court)14, “There is reason fingerprinting26, DNA9, blood spatter analysis27,
to doubt that prosecutors comply with these and fire investigations28. There has even been
obligations fully” (this statement was made research into forensic bias in the courtroom,
by a US federal appellate judge on the Ninth showing an ‘allegiance effect’ whereby forensic
Circuit15), The forensic examiners are often experts’ conclusions depend on which side
recruited to help make these cases, and that hired them29.
biases the presentation of the evidence. 16,17 It is worth noting that the research
The implications for court and the criminal on cognitive bias is complex. First, when
justice system (regardless if it is in the UK, participants in the studies are aware that they
US, or any other country) are that the are taking part in research and that this is not
forensic evidence may be overstated, and real casework, then the contrived contextual
its uncertainties and limitations concealed. information is not as powerful as when they
Although this should come out in cross- really believe it. Second, when participating
examination, in my view that rarely occurs. forensic experts think it is real casework,
First, both sides are rarely equal, because the then it is not practically possible to run many
prosecution often has far more resources than examiners on a fully-controlled study with all
the defence, as well as has better access to the conditions counterbalanced and good control
investigative team. Second, many cases enter a groups. Third, fully-controlled studies are
plea-bargain or a situation whereby suspects possible, but then they are mostly done with
confess to the crime and enter an early guilty students. Fourth, contextual information affects
plea, and hence the forensic (and other) perception and cognitive processing, but it
evidence is never really questioned. does not necessarily determine the decision
The implications of this bias are corrosive outcome. This is dependent on the difficulty of
and affect prosecution decisions, plea- the decision (i.e. how close it is to the decision
bargaining, the actual trial, as well as threshold), and the strength and direction of
subsequent appeals18. Furthermore, at court, the bias. Only when the decision is within the
there are cognitive issues that affect how the ‘bias danger zone’3 can bias shift the decision
juries understand the forensic evidence, and across the threshold and actually determine
COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS
the decision outcome. Fifth, a null finding that case33. Other cases include the UK High
no bias was found does not mean that bias Court of Justice Court of Appeal (Criminal
was not there – it could have been there Division) quashing a conviction that was based
but was not detected, or it may have been on biasing forensic work34. In this case, the
absent because of ineffective experimental bias forensic expert initially examining the evidence
manipulations. “concluded that there was insufficient detail to
Therefore, although the research literature be able to make a meaningful comparison”, but
most often finds biasing effects in studies after a suspect had been charged the expert
across the different forensic domains, the made a comparison and an identification. This
effects are not always straightforward and type of bias is derived from backward and
present in terms of decision outcomes. It is not circular reasoning, whereby the forensic expert
an easy area to study, and there are a number is biased by the known reference material (i.e.
of inherent obstacles in researching it. the suspect who is the target for comparison).
Research in this area has also investigated Working backwards from the suspect to the
the effects of using technology in forensic evidence in this way is a problem that can be
science. It has shown that technology does not addresses by the Linear Sequential Unmasking
necessarily solve bias, and may even introduce method (see below).
new forms of biases. For example, the use We must remember that forensic evidence
of computerised fingerprint databases has is not always challenged in court because of
introduced clear base-rate expectations about the limited resources of the defence as well
a match30. This base-rate biasing expectation as the prevalent use of plea-bargaining and
affects forensic examiners in a number of early guilty pleas. Furthermore, because we
ways. First, they tend to spend less time never know the ground truth in casework, it
comparing suspects that they do not expect is hard to determine the extent of forensic 45
to match. Second, they are more likely to error. Nevertheless, there is sufficient data to
make false-positive decisions (i.e. erroneous show that forensic bias and error do occur
identifications) when they expect a suspect to within the criminal justice system. From known
match. And third, they are more likely to make miscarriages of justice in the US, 60% included
false-negative decisions (i.e. not make correct flawed forensic evidence35.
identifications) when they expect a suspect not
to match31. SOURCES OF CONTEXTUAL
BIASING INFORMATION
COGNITIVE BIAS IN FORENSIC Bias comes in many forms and guises5, and
CASEWORK it can derive from very different sources.
Do these theoretical analyses and research It is important to classify the different
findings apply to actual forensic casework? sources of contextual biasing information,
The answer is clearly yes, as revealed by as this will enable a better understanding
cases with erroneous forensic identifications of bias in forensic work as well as help to
and miscarriages of justice. For example, in
the US Brandon Mayfield was linked with
the 2004 Madrid train bombings after being Figure 3: A taxonomy of the different levels at which task-
misidentified by a number of independent irrelevant and potentially biasing contextual information may reach
a forensic scientist13, 36.
forensic examiners, who all concluded with
100% certainty that he was the match. Level 5: Organizational & Cultural factors
However, because of unusual circumstances Level 4: ‘Base rate’ expectations
the erroneous identification was revealed and
prompted an investigation that concluded that Level 3: Case information
confirmation bias was a factor in the mistake32. Level 2: Reference materials
The biasing effects on forensic casework
Level 1: Trace evidence
were also revealed in the UK by the public
judicial inquiry by the Rt Hon Sir Anthony
Campbell, who examined the Shirely McKie
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
devise solutions. Clearly, some context and evidence – a clear source of bias. Finally, the
information is needed for forensic examiners fifth level relates to larger contextual sources
to do their job, but other contextual of bias: the organisational and cultural factors,
information is extraneous and irrelevant to such as the adversarial legal system and being
their forensic work. part of the police service (see the allegiance
I organise the different sources into a 5-level effect discussed earlier).
taxonomy13, 36 (see Figure 3). First is the actual
evidence, which may include irrelevant biasing SOLUTIONS
context. For example, handwriting analysis may Many of the solutions to the problems raised
involve text that includes irrelevant biasing in this chapter do not require additional funds
information, voice recognition may include and are practical. In fact, some solutions will
tone and content that includes irrelevant enhance forensic decision quality and increase
biasing information, and bite-marks may reveal efficiency at the same time. This is because
irrelevant information about the nature of the the solutions are derived from understanding
crime. human cognition as it applies to forensic work.
The second level is the reference material, These solutions are detailed in a number of
46 the known ‘target’ that the evidence from publications3, 36-38, and many are included in
the crime scene is compared against. This the Forensic Regulator Codes of Practice and
information is relevant and essential: the Conduct guidance on “Cognitive bias effects
forensic examiners cannot do their work relevant to forensic science examinations”39.
without it. However, it may cause backward The solutions all share a common goal: to
and circular reasoning that can bias the increase the independence of mind of the
perception and evaluation of the actual forensic examiners, so that they can do their
evidence. This often occurs when the forensic work without interference and bias, and thus
examiner works from the target suspect to achieve the highest possible quality decisions.
the evidence, rather than from the evidence
to the suspect. When examining and analysing 1. Context management
the evidence from the crime scene, the target Many of the solutions focus on how to
suspect is irrelevant. manage context, providing what I often call the
The third level is the case information. “Context Management Toolbox”36. These tools
There is a whole array of case information and procedures consider what the forensic
that is not relevant to the forensic examination examiner needs and when.
in question, but can bias perception, The first and most basic step is masking
interpretation, judgement and decision-making. irrelevant information from the forensic
Knowing whether eyewitnesses identified the examiners. Hence, information that they do
suspect, whether the suspect has previous not need and that is extraneous to their work
convictions, and whether the detective believes should be masked from them (see the Linear
the suspect is guilty, are all examples of case Sequential Unmasking method below). This
information that is irrelevant to any forensic will not only make sure they focus on the
examination. information relevant to their forensic expertise,
Level four pertains to the base-rate but will also increase efficiency because they
expectations derived from pervious work. will not waste time on irrelevant information.
The forensic examiner has an expectation of In some cases, regardless of the forensic
what they will find and what they will conclude domain, it is easy to determine that some case
before they even see or examine the actual information (see level 3 in Figure 3) is not
COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS
information. For example, when one forensic verifier to all potentially biasing information,
examiner verifies a forensic conclusion of whereas one may not need to use such blind-
another examiner, the verifying examiner verifying procedures for simple, self-evident
should be blind to various aspects of the first forensic decisions3.
examiner’s decision (e.g. what they decided, Similarly, some cases involve highly-
why, who made the first decision, etc). emotionally biasing information and a variety
Who will do the masking and sequencing of pressures that may influence the forensic
of information? Often, one must know a lot of examiner, whereas other cases may have very
context in order to determine what forensic limited (if any) biasing information. The need
tests need to be done, what information is to have a case manager and to blind case
relevant, etc. This could be carried out by a information (level 3 in Figure 3) may depend
Case Manager3, who will initially communicate on the existence of biasing information. Hence,
with the investigative detective, and know all of a triage approach can determine if and what
the available information about the case. The measures are appropriate3. The triage approach
case manager will then determine what tests to makes implementing the bias countermeasures
run, and what forensic work needs to be done. much simpler and cost-effective.
They will assign those forensic tasks to other
examiners who will only be provided with the 3. Countering base-rate expectations
relevant information they need for those tasks, This is quite easy to achieve by introducing
thus masking the irrelevant information. a few examples that change the base rate.
Furthermore, the case manager will also In airport security, for example, this may
communicate with the police and provide them involve introducing fake bombs into the X-ray
with the forensic results, explaining what they screening procedure, a tactic known as Threat
48 mean and how they may bear on the case. The Image Projection (TIP). In the forensic domain
forensic examiners doing the actual forensic such measures can be implemented in a variety
tests and comparisons will not be part of those of processes. For example, the base rate for
communications, and will focus on their specific verifying identifications is very high, and this can
forensic analysis. Since the case manager role be countered by including a few ‘similar non-
is most interesting, it may be a rotating role matches’ as identifications within the verification
among the examiners. stream3.
Another example is countering the
2. Triage technology base-rate expectation, by including
Another set of solutions involves matching matches in locations that they rarely appear,
resources and effort to the complexity of the or by randomising the positions so that there
forensic work, and depending on whether it are no regularities of where the technology
is within the ‘bias danger zone’3. For example, presents the most likely match3, 30, 31. All of
some forensic decisions are complex and hence these measures aim to make sure that the
more prone to errors than others. In such cases forensic examiner is cognitively engaged and
one may go to the trouble of fully blinding the bases their decision on the actual evidence
rather than base-rate expectations.
about these issues – are predominately forensic such training also be provided to a variety of
scientists, not cognitive scientists, and therefore police forces in the United Kingdom.
have little-to-no understanding of the human
cognitive system to address the issues of CONCLUSIONS
cognitive bias (e.g. they often mistake them as In most forensic domains – from the work
ethical issues). at the crime scene to forensic comparisons
Therefore, it is paramount that all forensic at the laboratory – it is the human examiner
and CSI examiners receive proper training who perceives information, interprets it, makes
on the bias and cognitive factors involved in judgments and reaches a decision. Often it is
making forensic decisions. This has started the human examiner who is the ‘instrument of
to take place: for example, Hertfordshire, analysis’. However, until recently the role of the
Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire Police are human examiner has been relatively neglected.
providing such training to their CSI and forensic For forensic science to increase its positive
examiners. Such training has already had a impact on the Criminal Justice System and
practical impact on the way they carry out beyond, it must ensure that cognitive bias in
forensic work: by removing possible irrelevant forensic work is minimised. Understanding
contextual information, for example, thereby human cognition helps to identify the weak 49
ensuring that forensic decisions are based points and vulnerabilities inherent in forensic
on the relevant forensic evidence and are science, and also to develop and implement
not contaminated and biased by extraneous biasing countermeasures. Without such
information (an aspect of the LSU method). measures, forensic examiners and CSIs will be
Such higher-quality forensic decisions benefit cognitively contaminated and biased in their
the Criminal Justice System and save costs in work. These biases affect others and ultimately
the long run. create a ‘bias snowball effect’37, 38.
It is also important to provide training Taking on board the cognitive and human
to judges, lawyers and jurors, so that they factors involved in forensic science is long
understand the strengths of forensic evidence, overdue, but recent years have seen very
but also its limitations and vulnerabilities to fruitful progress in advancing these issues
cognitive bias. Such training should include within forensic science. Hopefully this trend
the Forensic Regulator Codes of Practice and will continue and increase, and we will witness
Conduct guidance on “Cognitive bias effects the increased power of forensic science to
relevant to forensic science examinations”39. contribute to the Criminal Justice System and
With education in this area, along with to society at large.
cognitive best practices, forensic science
can increase its contribution to the Criminal
Justice System and beyond. However, without
acknowledging these issues and implementing
training and solutions, forensic work may suffer
from a variety of biases. A number of police
forces in a variety of countries are undergoing
such training (e.g. in the United States, the FBI
and Police Departments including those in
New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and
Kansas), have all provided cognitive training to
their forensic/CSI examiners. It is suggested that
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CASE STUDY
STATISTICS IN COURT
I
DAVID LAGNADO, University College London, with contributions from COLIN AITKEN, University of Edinburgh
magine you are a juror in a criminal trial, probability of the hypothesis of interest.
in which the defendant is charged with The logically correct method for
assault. A key piece of evidence is that incorporating the expert’s evidence into
the defendant’s footprint matches a print a judgment about the probability of the
found at the crime scene. The prosecution hypothesis is to use Bayes’ theorem, an
calls a forensic expert, who testifies that approach that depends on an estimate of the
the probability of seeing such a match if the probability of the hypothesis before considering
defendant was not the source of the footprint the footprint evidence – a concept called ‘prior
is 1 in 1,000. Based on this information alone, probability’.
what is your estimate of the probability that An intuitive way to understand the problem
the defendant left the print? is by casting it in terms of frequencies. Suppose
Many people would be tempted to give a that in the absence of the footprint evidence
high probability, perhaps even quantifying it as there are 10,000 men, including the defendant,
999 in 1,000. But this line of reasoning is logically in the local area that could have committed
flawed – it is an example of the notorious the crime. Given the expert’s statement that
50 ‘prosecutor’s fallacy’, so called because it usually the match probability is 1 in 1,000, we would
overstates the prosecution’s case. expect about 10 of these men to match the
The prosecutor’s fallacy is not just a print. So the footprint evidence has narrowed
reasoning error made by lay people. Legal the number of possible suspects from 10,000
experts such as prosecutors, judges, barristers, to about 11 (10 plus the defendant); this
and forensic scientists are also susceptible, and increases the probability that the defendant
the error often crops up in media coverage of left the print from 1 in 10,000 to about 1 in 11
legal cases. The fallacy has figured in several (see Figure 1).
high profile cases, with convictions being This is a substantial increase, but it is still
quashed due to the misrepresentation of the relatively unlikely that the defendant left the
evidence. The seriousness of the error has print, given that about 10 other men would
been recognised by courts, and instructions also be expected to match. The prosecutor’s
have been formulated to avoid the mistake. fallacy implies that the probability the
Nevertheless it still seems to be a pernicious defendant left the print is 999 in 1,000,
problem, and it arises in many other areas with whereas the correct calculation, incorporating
probabilistic evidence, such as medical diagnosis the prior probability, gives a figure closer to 1
and psychological testing. in 11.
Note that footprints are used here for
WHY IS THIS A FALLACY? illustrative purposes, and are rarely used
The expert has told you the probability that in forensic investigations. However, exactly
the footprints would match, based on the the same logic applies to DNA profiles,
hypothesis that someone else left the footprint. fingerprints, and other kinds of trace evidence
This is calculated from an estimate of how rare that are routinely used in court. Also, in the
the footprint is in some relevant population. forensic context a ‘match’ often amounts to
But this is entirely different to the probability the claim of a correspondence between two
that someone else left the footprint, based on items (to within a specified tolerance), but not
the evidence that the footprints match. to a claim that they are identical. Indeed, even
The former is a statement about the probability two footprints from the same individual will
of the evidence, whereas the latter is about the not be identical.
COGNITIVE AND HUMAN FACTORS
Figure 1. Visual depiction of the suspect population (adapted from ref. 1).
One of whom is
the actual source
Actual source
Non matching 51
person
WHY IS THE FALLACY HARD TO someone else left the print, given the evidence
AVOID? that the footprints match.
Forensic experts can only tell us how well the
evidence supports a hypothesis. This leaves Base rate neglect: When updating their beliefs,
us with the task of using that information to people often ignore information about how
reach a judgment about the probability of the common something is in the general population
hypotheses – something that is difficult if left to – known as base-rate information – and give
commonsense and intuition alone. too much weight to case-specific evidence. In
Extensive psychological research2, 3 reveals that our case, this is tantamount to ignoring the prior
when people face difficult probability problems probability that the defendant left the print, and
they use ‘cognitive heuristics’ – shortcut focusing just on the match evidence.
solutions that can lead to systematic biases.
The prosecutor’s fallacy is especially tempting Belief bias: People are more likely to accept
because it incorporates several interrelated a fallacious argument if its conclusion fits with
heuristics and biases. what else they know or assume. This means
that the prosecutor’s fallacy can seem more
Attribute substitution: Faced with a difficult acceptable when there are other reasons to
question, people often respond with a readily believe the defendant is guilty.
available but incorrect answer. Thus the expert’s
statement – the probability that the footprint Defaults: People often use default values to
evidence would match if someone other than simplify their reasoning. In the legal case, people
the defendant had left the print (1 in 1,000) – often assume a 50/50 prior probability, but this
is readily taken as the answer to the ultimate assumption is usually unjustified and prejudicial.
question of interest i.e. the probability that
THE FORENSIC SCIENCE LANDSCAPE
CASE STUDY
STUDY
SECTION 2:
THE CHANGING NATURE
OF CRIME
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
THE CHANGING
NATURE OF CRIME
Forensic science has a tendency Foreign legal systems
towards being reactive; the provide the UK with
future for crime reduction is in evidence about crimes,
proactive strategies and policies. accidents and natural
disasters involving Britons,
while the UK is obliged to
help investigate crimes
committed by British
citizens abroad.
$400 billion
per year
In a recent report the
cost to the UK of
cybercrime was
estimated to be The international
exchange of DNA data
£27 billion and fingerprints can
per year identify trends and spatial
features in cross-border
crime and offending.
Forensic science data can
be used to inform crime
prevention strategies.
With a 5% rise between 2013 and 2014,
more than 40% of all criminal cases of
fraud relate to misappropriation of identity.
Its cost to the UK economy runs close to
55
As the complexity of cyberattacks
grows, so does the volume of
evidence that can be collected in
relation to a crime.
The International
Commission on Missing
Persons and Bode Cellmark
Forensics have tested
50,000
bone samples and
30,000
unidentified human remains
from MH17 to date
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
CHAPTER 5
W
Crime Agency work together to develop global science toolkits.
Table 1: Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) are a technology management tool that provides
a measurement to assess the maturity of evolving technology.
TRL 8 Actual Technology completed and qualified through test and demonstration.
58
required to investigate their misuse are not mandated with judicial end-user requirements
being developed in concert. Meanwhile, the that include accredited laboratories, along with
forensic professional’s ability to act as an expert training and application by competent staff – in
witness is being narrowed down to specific other words, that these technologies should be
fields of activity, which are so complex that ‘fit for court’. But mandating these complex and
judges and jurors have little or no concept of costly end-user requirements at such an early
the subject matter. stage of technology development can deter
innovators. This narrows the field of available
HOW CAN SCIENCE KEEP PACE expertise, creates perceived boundaries and
WITH THE CHANGES IN CRIME stifles engagement.
AND TECHNOLOGY? Although the developers of these tools need
The accelerating rate of change of forensic to be cognisant of the requirements of the
technology stands in stark contrast to the Criminal Procedure Rules that their technologies
pace of the traditional forensic sciences. New would eventually have to meet in the criminal
products and services to support forensic justice system, innovators working at the lower
science capability go through a lengthy end-to- Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) 1–5 (see
end quality and validation processes before being Table 1) should be allowed to focus on the
used within the Criminal Justice System. But this technical requirements of their systems. Mandating
process is not agile enough to match the speed costly base requirements (such as accredited
at which new forensic technologies are needed. laboratories) does not incentivise the science and
This is most keenly felt at the basic research technology community to provide rapid solutions
or proof-of-concept stages. Even at these for development. Instead, it should be sufficient for
preliminary stages, funded projects are often them to disclose their basic validation processes
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
national sponsor for fundamental research into policies, organisational cultures, ethical and
the social and behavioural sciences. We also human rights challenges. This is keenly felt when
need to deconflict the competing priorities it comes to personal data held on national
for funding, and take a long-term approach to databases. The difficulties in accessing and using
providing an environment that will maximise the national crime-fighting data have never been
commercial markets for forensic science, to the satisfactorily resolved. This hampers academic
benefit of both the public and private sectors. research so much that it is often too far
removed from the criminal investigation to be
THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING of value. Better access to crime knowledge and
CULTURAL NORMS ON CRIME data is required to provide qualitative research,
Public confidence in forensic science, and its while still respecting the challenges associated
ability to keep the public safe, are the most with managing confidentiality, security, Criminal
important drivers for innovation within forensic Justice System requirements and commercial
science. It operates within an environment of considerations. It is also vital if we are to reduce
radical uncertainty, where there is greater public the risks of research bias, and to avoid studies
scrutiny around its activities, and a greater simply delivering pre-determined outcomes,
demand for transparency than ever before. rather than producing genuine insights.
As well as being adaptable to the changing All of the examples discussed in this chapter
nature of crime, forensic science has to be demonstrate that forensic science needs to
flexible enough to cope with the changing adapt more quickly to the changing nature of
requirements of the law, political agendas and crime if it to remain relevant, trusted and useful.
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
CASE STUDY
I
OLIVER SMITH, PwC Cyber Threat Operations
magine the following scenario. Police additional information and where necessary
are poised to arrest an employee on redirect the victims to bogus sites. Once
suspicion of misappropriating company executed, the malware was able to operate
funds when an investigative interview undetected, intercepting key information
with the suspect reveals a sequence of intended for the banking site. The victim’s
strange events. Upon closer examination, it banking credentials were transmitted to the
transpires that a sophisticated and targeted attackers, giving them access to the company’s
attack by cybercriminals had succeeded in bank account.
siphoning off close to £250,000 to bank The employee was then presented with an
accounts held in Cyprus, Ukraine and the onscreen message stating that his card reader
United States. – a device designed to provide an additional
Just days before – after star ting a new layer of security around the authorisation
62 role in the finance team of a manufacturing of transactions – was required in order
company – the employee had received to complete the logon process. Given the
an email purpor tedly from the company’s employee’s unfamiliarity with the new banking
bank. This email seemed entirely innocuous, system, he was not suspicious and followed
and was one of many other emails that the the instructions. However, rather than being a
employee had received from the bank as par t step in the legitimate account access process,
of the process for setting up their access. the employee had inadver tently provided an
However, the email was in fact spoofed, and authentication code authorising a payment to
had been sent by a cybercrime group – a a new account.
form of cyberattack called ‘phishing’. Targeted The employee was presented with an error
phishing emails (i.e. those that may refer message that asked him to try again, and this
to the target by name, or contain other process was repeated a number of times in
information that may resonate with the shor t succession until the employee gave
target) are referred to as ‘spear phishing’. up trying to gain access to the account. The
The email contained a piece of malicious attackers then proceeded to call the victim
software (malware) intended to infect at his office masquerading as legitimate bank
the employee’s computer with a carefully employees, which resulted in additional bogus
crafted program known as a banking Trojan. transfers being authorised (this process is
This malware, which is called a ‘Man in known as voice phishing, or ‘vishing’). Although
the Browser’ attack, allows the attacker to the bank eventually blocked fur ther payments,
not only track and exploit the information it had missed several red flags, including that
being entered by a user, but also to ask for the company never made direct foreign
CHAPTER 6
I
faire approach that may expedite identity theft.
dentity and identification are two sides of by the full focus of legislative, judicial, scientific
the same coin, but they are, ironically, not and investigative capabilities.
identical. Heated philosophical debates
on this matter have existed for centuries, ‘POSSIBLY’ IS NOT A HELPFUL
and perhaps even from the evolutionary ANSWER
watershed when the most narcissistic of all The philosophical concept of identity was
species – humans – first discerned a sense of first addressed within the much-debated
self1. From then onward, people have sought to three classical laws of logic: the law of identity,
guard their identity jealously from others who the law of non-contradiction and the law
might wish to steal it; they have also learned to of excluded middle. Of course, in the ideal
wield it as a powerful tool for both good and situation identity would follow the simplicity
bad, and to raise it as a shield for protection. and pleasing symmetry of Aristotle’s law of
64 There is an inherent need within structured identity (A=A) but this provides no space
societies for citizens to be able to prove who for extraneous factors including change in
they say they are, and for others to be willing to the predicate (as recognised by Heraclitus)
accept that their claim is not only accurate, but or uncertainty in the tools available to the
that it reflects who they have always been and evaluator to establish unequivocal exactness
will continue to be. If there is any doubt in this (as evidenced by the concept of three-valued
concept, then we must attempt to resolve it by logic). Bivalent logic only provides for ‘true’ or
presenting and evaluating evidence. ‘false’ values, whereas three-value logic permits
The level of trust in this agreement has a third, indeterminate value that occupies the
changed over time, and in today’s high-security middle ground between the two finite points
world it is probably at its most extreme. Yet at the end of an identity continuum (match or
society has always been fascinated by the exclusion). Therefore, while these exquisite
concept of identity, of being able to acquire and bimodal philosophical concepts might represent
manipulate it, and as a result confuse and fool the holy grail of standards for modern day
the unsuspecting. Alexandre Dumas’ 1846 book identification, such rigid inflexibility, which relies
‘The Two Dianas’ was adapted from the real life on certainty or indeed uniqueness, cannot be
16th-century case of identity theft associated achieved realistically. The degree of confidence
with a peasant, Martin Guerre, and his that we have in our ability to assign identity
subsequent trial and execution. It is interesting to an individual or to a thing must therefore
to consider that in today’s world of forensic be predicated on probability and whether
science this case would have been solved very the likelihood is closer to confirmation or
quickly: and this illustrates that the field is not rejection of identity. Identity as it pertains to
static but that it is ever evolving, and one could an individual must therefore, by definition, be a
argue that it is now progressing at its fastest rigid bimodal concept (each person is unique);
pace. Indeed, the flexibility and manoeuvrability but identification, which is the process by which
of identity continues to inspire creative minds, certainty of identity is assessed, occupies the
not only in literature and the media but also middle ground of the third value. This conflict
those intent on nefarious purposes. Such comes into focus through provision of false
criminal tendencies need to be countermanded rejection rates, false acceptance rates and the
IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION
market in 2006. “It was predicted that by the end extraction, the pattern is represented as a binary
of 2013, Automated Fingerprint Identification (black and white) image that can be utilised for
Services (AFIS) technology would dominate pattern comparison purposes. According to the
the biometric marketplace with around 33% of IBG, vascular pattern recognition constituted
the market share but by the end of 2015 this approximately 3% of the overall biometric
is closer to 50%, driven by large identification commercial market in 2006 (ref. 8). However,
programmes and accessible and affordable the IBG correctly predicted a 300% growth
personal security demands.”9. in the use of vein recognition technology by
While it is true that fingerprint recognition 2012 (refs 16, 17) and current market share is
continues to dominate the biometrics industry, approximately 10%. Like fingerprint biometrics,
it is important to realise that it also dominated vein pattern analysis has translated successfully
the field of forensic investigation for nearly 100 into the forensic field as an emerging science,
years10 until it was eventually relegated into and particularly in the identification of hands
second place by DNA analysis11. Both DNA from perpetrators of sexual crime, but more
and fingerprint analysis have largely weathered specifically child sexual abuse18, 19 (see case study
the adversarial interrogation of the courtroom, on p80) . The legal admissibility of this evidence
although fingerprint evidence was recently was granted on the basis that the expert was
downgraded from a biometric of ‘fact’ to one of a trained human anatomist who understood
‘opinion’ following the public enquiry into the human variation18. Therefore, vein pattern analysis
Shirley McKie case12, and aspects of DNA analysis has successfully crossed from the scientific/
are also coming under greater scrutiny. Biometrics medical world into the commercial marketplace
that are not only able to operate successfully as a largely unnoticed conduit, and is now
within the security market but can also meet the translating onto the forensic arena with significant
66 criteria of evidential admissibility, are extremely impact. Capturing this sometimes unexpected
important and potentially powerful tools for the flow of knowledge and influence between
analysis and determination of identity in both disciplines is challenging but offers fertile ground
the forensic and the security related contexts13, for innovation. The Law Commission report
14, 15
. This border interface between forensic on ‘Expert Evidence in Criminal Proceedings
science and the security market is a powerful in England and Wales’20 clearly provides room
translational scientific portal where a paradigm within the UK Criminal Justice System for the
shift may be accelerated through the unrestricted utilisation and introduction of novel or emerging
bi-directional traffic of knowledge transfer and sciences in the courtroom, but it is also clear on
collaborative strategic alliances. The development the extent to which opinions and inferences may
of new biometrics, and the support of emerging be made in such circumstances.
ones, would be greatly enhanced by a strategic First generation (e.g. fingerprints) and
working alliance of forensic science experts with second generation (e.g. DNA) forensic-based
colleagues in the security industries. identification techniques have a track record in
Vascular pattern recognition is a less well terms of evidential admissibility11 that emergent
known biometric, but it is predicted to gain technologies must acquire. Developing a strong
significant market share after years of being ethical framework is also a critical component to
viewed as little more than a niche player. This ensure the success of an approach, both in the
approach relies on the infra-red image capture Criminal Justice System and in the commercial
of the arborescent (tree-like) pattern of the sector19, 21. Biometrics that can cross between
superficial veins, commonly in a finger, the palm both fields raise different issues in the different
or on the dorsum of a hand. Through algorithmic locations, but the interchange offers tremendous
CASE STUDY
SUPERIDENTITY
M
SARAH STEVENAGE, University of Southampton
Figure 1: The hand offers one of the most valuable new biometrics under scrutiny. After measuring hand geometry (left),
infrared light reveals the hand veins in much greater detail than is possible under natural light (centre).Viewing the hand
under natural light, with veins superimposed, allows both geometry and vein analysis for matching purposes (right).
IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION
access becomes the norm, is the consumer vital that the policy makers, industry, scientists,
aware of what proportion of their physical investigative forces and the judiciary work
identity they may have to sacrifice in the future together not only to encourage development
simply to continue to function in the modern but also to manage and monitor the inevitable
world? outcomes associated with a fast paced world.
At the core of all aspects of modern
PRIVACY IMPLICATIONS identity and identification lies the requirement
There is considerable debate at present for an unshakeable certainty of continuity
within the different security and biometric of information, and confidence in verifiable
communities with regards to the right to robust data. In times past, proof of identity
privacy and the security of state-collected lay in document-based evidence: producing a
and stored data, and the case study on p71 birth certificate was sufficient to satisfy most
considers the importance of this area for needs. However, UNICEF reported in 2000
enlightened and honest debate. The current that approximately 40% of all births were
media furore relates to the legitimacy of covert not officially recorded, which may represent
capture of faces through recognition software upwards of 50 million babies in a single year.
programmes. As we become increasingly On a rolling basis, this is a large number of
security conscious, the importance of the individuals who potentially have no officially
right to remain anonymous is likely to gain recorded identity. This lack of documentation
momentum and will require redress by data may not present as a problem if the individual
security and privacy legislation, a matter that remains within the confines of a community
was raised in the House of Commons Select where that approach is accepted, but when
Committee on 20 November 2014. There is an they move outwith those boundaries – perhaps
70 urgent need to consider and debate the right because of displacement following war or
to privacy over the need to manage a secure famine, fleeing from persecution as refugees,
society. Are we sure that the Data Protection or as illegal economic migrants – their lack
Act is strong enough to withstand the strains, of corroborating identification can become a
both internal and external, that manifest as major issue for border controls, immigration
our identity comes under ever closer scrutiny? and ultimately the civil courts (when human
As we continue to increase our dependence rights are being addressed) or the criminal
on biometrics, their security and their legal courts (should the individual either present as a
robustness will become a troublesome issue for victim or an accused).
public confidence. If we lose our bank card or A birth certificate, whether original or legally
our PIN number then new ones can be issued, issued, is a ‘breeder document’ that can be
but if our biometrics are stolen then we cannot used to obtain other forms of verification of
change our fingerprints – consequently, it identity. As such it carries an inherent value, and
becomes much more challenging to prove our consequently a black market demand. However,
innocence of a crime in the face of compelling the misappropriation and falsification of such
biometric evidence. And if our multimodal documents has gradually eroded the confidence
biometrics are stolen, at what point are we no of authorities to accept them without question,
longer able to retrieve our identity from the specifically for high-risk activities such as
hands of fraudsters and regain control? There crossing borders, opening bank accounts etc. In
are many significant challenges ahead for which an attempt to eradicate the need for traditional
we are perhaps not yet fully prepared and it is paper-based documents and replace them with
CASE STUDY
MANAGING BIOMETRICS
T
ISABELLE MOELLER, Chief Executive, Biometrics Institute
he use of biometrics has become giving due consideration to privacy and data
an important tool in the discussion protection when they are considering, designing,
around security and identity man- implementing and managing biometric-based
agement. Biometric authentication projects.
has the potential to ease the burden of security, The Biometrics Institute has therefore
thanks to its simplicity and usability. developed several best-practice documents
The Biometrics Institute Industry Survey to help guide members along the way: the
confirmed in 2013 that biometrics are at Biometrics Institute Privacy Awareness Checklist
a crossroads. They are moving from large- and Biometrics Privacy Guideline (available from
scale government use to everyday consumer www.biometricsinstitute.org).
applications. Only the responsible use of We are also working on a proposal to create
biometrics will lead to successful applications. If a Trust Mark to give consumers confidence in
implemented responsibly, biometrics are certainly the responsible use of an identity product or
a privacy enhancing technology. service that incorporates biometrics. This will
When we provide a biometric or other give biometric solutions providers and operators
sensitive personal data, we ask questions about a tool to demonstrate that due consideration 71
trust and control. Governments are typically has been given to privacy and trust during
required to put very robust trust models in place planning and implementation.
to ensure that end-to-end security is provided,
through government accredited networks,
compliance processes for privacy, and record-
BIOMETRICS ARE AT A CROSSROADS,
keeping legislation – all assurance mechanisms MOVING FROM LARGE-SCALE
that involve partnerships and processes around
access to data. But in other organisations that
GOVERNMENT USE TO EVERYDAY
end-to-end security and assurance might not CONSUMER APPLICATIONS.
exist, an absence that demands far more than
just a technology solution.
Other key questions relate to control and
data retention. What happens to that biometric?
Who looks after it, and when will it be destroyed
– after a person leaves school, or a particular
job? What processes exist for managing any
compromise of identity data, for re-establishing
confidence in identity, for redress?
We have seen many successful
implementations where biometrics have
helped to transform identity management,
privacy protection and identity security.
Electronic passports facilitate a more efficient
and secure travel experience, while large-
scale identity management systems facilitate
the delivery of government services to the
poor and marginalised. But the public requires
assurance that biometric managers are
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
IDENTITY IS A CORNERSTONE OF OUR set of fingerprints, full face photo and iris scan,
and were linked to name, address, occupation,
MODERN SOCIETY, AND ITS INFLUENCE tribal name and a military grid reference
AS A CENTRAL TENET OF OUR CULTURE for where the individual was processed. A
subsequent Biometric Enabled Watch List
IS ONLY GOING TO INCREASE. (BEWL) collated individuals who had been
determined to be possible threats and linked
them to biometrics-enabled intelligence. These
so-called battlefield biometrics are a new and
an identification card supported by multimodal powerful tool in the war against terrorism, but
biometrics, India has embarked on an ambitious there are also possible societal benefits that may
project to record biometrics in all 1.2 billion emerge. The argument and balance between
of its citizens. Each man, woman and child will invasion of privacy and the greater good is
receive a 12 digit unique identification number one that still requires honest and open debate,
called an ‘aadhar’ as a proof of identity and and it is a brave stance to hold to one without
this will be linked to their name, address and consideration of the other in our modern world.
biometrics including iris scans and fingerprints28.
Care is required here to ensure that biometrics CONCLUSION
collected when the person was 16 are still Identity is a cornerstone of our modern
retrievable and applicable 20, 30 or 60 years society, and its influence as a central tenet
later when they may come into question. of our culture is only going to increase. It
If technology accelerated so much in that influences our feeling of safety and security,
intervening period that the original databases and exposes our feelings of vulnerability. Our
72 could no longer be searched, then the longevity apparent willingness to part with it for the
of the project must be addressed to ensure latest shiny trinket should be of major concern
currency and long term accessibility while to governments and institutions – once a
retaining the flexibility to advance with new biometric becomes a viable route for identity
technology. This is the current problem facing fraud, then the opportunity to recover it
the UK’s National DNA Database. Over 720 and secure it becomes exponentially more
million identification numbers have been issued challenging. When this is extrapolated to
so far in India, and it is expected to exceed 1 multimodal biometrics then the loss of identity
billion by the end of 2015. The cost for the into the hands of the fraudster will result in
upkeep, security and success of such a system serious and possibly irreversible issues for
will make an interesting case study, in terms of law-abiding citizens. This will encroach into the
both risk assessment and its role in criminal domain of the policymaker, who must balance
activities. The process is not without critics, and an escalating public demand for security, a
it is perhaps not surprising that the complex commercial clamour to provide it, and citizens
underpinning legislation is still pending in the who are willing to relinquish aspects of their
Parliament of India. It is a brave move, and only identity, against a backdrop of criminal potential.
time will be the judge of its success and value. A focus on the young and the elderly is
The US military project to record imperative: despite campaigns and warnings,
biometrics in Iraq and Afghanistan has received they are the most susceptible to criminals
considerable criticism from human rights who target the very essence of who we are
supporters. Its aim was to record as many and see a value in our identity that many do
biometrics as possible from much of the Afghan not understand. The expansive ecosystem
population. This information was used to try of government, science, justice, industry and
to understand the movement and complexity society must find a way to work together to
of the insurgent networks, but it has also strike a workable balance. Identity, identification
become an increasingly valuable tool in the and the key players who seek to exploit the
workings of the Afghan judicial system and in differences between the two will be a vital
supporting progressive local and national social driver in defining and regulating the profile of
aid programmes. The biometrics included a full our future society.
IDENTITY AND IDENTIFICATION
CASE STUDY
EMERGING BIOMETRICS
IN THE COURTROOM
LUCINA HACKMAN, CHRIS RYNN AND HELEN MEADOWS,
I
Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee
n the UK, around 16% of children have differences between the image of the offender’s
experienced sexual abuse by 16 years of hand and images of the suspect’s hands.
age; of these, 95% are abused by someone The anatomical information is based on
they know. When an individual is found to compound analysis of multiple features, such as
be in possession of indecent images that include scars of accidental origin; knuckle crease patterns
instances of the abuse of minors, it is essential to (see Figure 2); superficial vein patterns (which
identify the perpetrator. In many cases, the images develop during embryological development); as
will not contain readily identifiable features such as well as nail bed morphology and freckle patterns,
the face of the perpetrator. But if the perpetrator’s both of which have genetic origins and are also
hands or genitalia are captured in the images, new influenced by environmental factors. Comparison
research has found that these can support the of these features between offender and suspect
identification process. can often provide sufficient information for 73
In addition to well-established biometrics such exclusion of identity.
as the ridge detail of the palmar surfaces of the When defendants are confronted with the
hands (e.g. fingerprints), other anatomical features results of these comparisons, more than 80% of
of the hand are widely accepted as commercial them change their plea. This reduces the time
biometric identifiers that can verify an individual’s and money consumed by a lengthy court case
identity. Such systems utilise fingerprints, palm- and, more importantly, negates the requirement
prints and vascular patterns of the hand (see for vulnerable children to give evidence in court,
Figure 1) to facilitate access to secure facilities where they would have to face their abuser and
or bank accounts. This information might also relive their experiences.
be available to investigators who are trying to
compare suspects to the perpetrators pictured in
indecent images. Figure 1:
When our team from the Centre for Anatomy Superficial vein
patterning on
and Human Identification (CAHID) investigated
the dorsum of
the first case of this type in 2007, little research a hand
had been undertaken into the individuality or
uniqueness of certain anatomical features, in terms
of their reliability for forensic human identification.
But the knowledge gained from centuries of study
into human anatomy suggested that these features
were highly variable between individuals. The Figure 2:
University of Dundee compiled a database of hand Knuckle
creases, nail
images, and subsequent studies have created a
bed morpholo-
core of research investigating the use of such data gy and scars
in forensic comparison for identification purposes1.
This facilitated methods to make forensic
comparisons of anatomical features in suspect
and offender images, detailing the similarities and
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
CHAPTER 7
CYBERFORENSICS
ANDREW BLYTH, Cybercrime costs the UK an estimated £27 billion per year. The growth in
University of South Wales internet use, data storage capacity, cloud computing and encryption all pose
MATT JOHNSON, major challenges for cyberforensics. But along with innovations such as block
Chief Technology Officer, chain technology, they also offer opportunities for forensic investigators – if
Guardtime they are backed by suitable policy and legal frameworks.
THE VERY DEFINITION OF CYBERCRIME The UK’s capability to address this challenge is
limited to a few academic centres of excellence,
VARIES FROM COUNTRY TO and no law enforcement agencies currently
COUNTRY, AS DOES THE LEGISLATION possess this capability.
The growth of encryption technology also
RELATING TO THE ACQUISITION AND presents a serious technical challenge, with
ANALYSIS OF FORENSIC EVIDENCE. the creation of unbreakable ciphers such as
AES (256-Bit). Modern USB/Flash technology
has adopted encryption as a mechanism to
protect person data. The placement of such
process control systems) will pose significant technologies within smartphones is now making
challenges for this data acquisition process. it virtually impossible to recover data. On 25
September 2014, FBI Director James Comey
2. Analyse criticised Apple and Google for developing
The result of the disclosures made by Edward smartphone encryption so secure that law
Snowden relating to the level of monitoring enforcement officials cannot easily gain access to
and surveillance of people’s activities in information stored on the devices. He said:
cyberspace has resulted in an increased use of “I am a huge believer in the rule of law, but
cryptographic services. These services range I also believe that no one in this country is
from disk encryption and web browsing to beyond the law. … What concerns me about
mobile chat programs. The major challenge for this is companies marketing something expressly
law enforcement in this area lies in recovering to allow people to place themselves beyond the
the cryptographic keys that keep this data law.”
76 secure. One can now purchase encrypting The net effect is that it is getting harder for
hard drives, smart phones and tablets that make law-enforcement and intelligence agencies to
it virtually impossible to recover data without recover digital evidence from encrypted devices.
the presence of the decryption key.
The growth in the use of anonymity services 3. Attribute
to hide ones identity during encrypted browser The rising use of technologies such as virtual
sessions has resulted in the increased need private networks, cryptographic tunneling,
for law enforcement to perform ‘live memory’ proxies and anonymity services (such as
forensics in real time while the machine is torrents and onion routing) have significantly
at the target’s website. With the volume diminished law enforcement’s ability to attribute
of data now available to investigators, the an attack to an individual. Moreover, the very
time and processing capability required is definition of cybercrime varies from country
increasing exponentially. The impact is that law to country, as does the legislation relating
enforcement officials need to perform data to the acquisition and analysis of forensic
mining on ‘big data’ scales of the order of 100 evidence. The net effect is that the burden
billion items. of proof is different in different countries, and
The transnational nature of cybercrime the rules of extradition between countries can
means that various law enforcement agencies, vary. However, there are efforts to harmonise
both within a country and across geographical legislation on cybercrime, such as the Budapest
borders, must share their data or intelligence. Convention on Cybercrime3, which entered
For example, credit card fraud in one area can into force for the UK on 1 September 2011.
be used to pay for cybercriminal or terrorist In 2015, the US government introduced
activities in another. an executive order allowing for sanctions
The major challenge associated with the to be taken against individuals engaged in
analysis of forensic evidence relates to the significant malicious cyber-enabled activities.
identification, collection, acquisition and This executive order aims to give the US the
preservation of large volumes of digital ability to sanction people that are outside its
evidence. The growth of cloud computing jurisdiction, and where the US has little chance
and the IoT will only exacerbate this problem. of extradition, by restricting their resources.
CYBERFORENSICS
According to the US president, it provides bases and validity of many forensic methods”4.
his administration with “a targeted tool for The term “foundation” was used no less than
countering the most significant” threats that thirty times to emphasise that each forensic
could be waged against the nation’s critical discipline must have a scientifically robust and
infrastructure. The UK has no such framework validated basis to its methods, its technologies,
within which to sanction individuals and its process of interpreting data.
In April 2015, the Federal Bureau of
STANDARDS Investigation (FBI) admitted that microscopic
Over the past few years a number of standards hair analysis contained errors in at least 90%
have emerged in the area of cyberforensics. of cases5. Peter Neufeld, Co-Director of the
Current guidance from the forensic regulator Innocence Project, which is affiliated with the
states that: Cardozo School of Law in New York, stated:
“The provider of digital forensic science “While the FBI and DOJ are to be commended
(the provider) shall comply with the Codes for bringing these errors to light and notifying
of Practice and Conduct for Forensic Science many of the people adversely affected, this epic
Providers and Practitioners in the Criminal miscarriage of justice calls for a rigorous review
Justice System (the Codes) and be accredited to to determine how this started almost four 77
BS EN ISO/IEC17020:2012 for any crime scene decades ago and why it took so long to come
activity and BS EN ISO/IEC17025:2005 for any to light.”
laboratory function (such as the recovery or The relatively new discipline of
imaging of electronic data)” cyberforensics certainly needs more
Standards such as ISO/IEC17020:2005 and foundational science. Many question the results
ISO/IEC17025:2005 provide certification of of initial data-breach investigations for failing
the imaging process, while standards such as to identify who or what group was behind
ISO/IEC27037:2012 focus on the identification, the crime. After a large data breach, Chief
collection, acquisition and preservation of Executive Officers grow anxious awaiting an
potential digital evidence. accurate attribution, while a news media frenzy
The above standards focus on identification, lowers stock prices and threatens jobs. The
collection, acquisition and preservation of recent Sony hacking case, with an indication
traditional digital evidence. However, they fail to of North Korean state sponsorship, is just one
address the data requirements in relation to: prominent example.
• The identification, collection, acquisition and Even more shocking is that some
preservation of digital evidence located in the traditionalists fail to recognise digital forensics
cloud, the IoT, and social media as a forensics discipline, leaving computer
• The presentation of digital evidence in the experts out of national committees in this
courtroom important field of criminal justice. Today, digital
evidence is often a key factor in many court
FURTHER CHALLENGES IN cases, given the proliferation of mobile devices,
CYBERFORENSICS email, text messaging, social media applications
In recent years, crime labs have faced criticism and digital cameras. Staying ahead of the cyber
for a ‘lack of validation’ in a variety of forensics technology curve is an important issue for any
disciplines. In January 2015, the US National forensics professional: high-tech apparatus is
Commission on Forensic Science stated there used in all the forensics disciplines and requires
was “a notable dearth of peer-reviewed, data-centric security and integrity to properly
published studies establishing the scientific interpret results.
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
Yet one should question whether computer signatures to link them together. This approach
forensics has really progressed much since the underlies cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, but
late 1990s in terms its foundational approaches it is also finding wider use in various financial
and techniques. There have undoubtedly been services and other sectors (see Chapter 13 case
advances in areas such as triage approaches, study p148).
mobile devices, write-blocking, enterprise Block chain technology has the potential to
forensics to minimize human travel, and internet revolutionize cyberforensics, and can be used to
evidence-finding tools. But producing case results prove with mathematical certainty the lineage
is still very time intensive, with few mathematical of data, chain of custody, and data integrity.
techniques being deployed to aid in accuracy Permissioned block chain solutions such as
and timeliness. Keyless Signature Infrastructure (KSI), which is
First responders still spend a significant used today for cybersecurity applications, focus
amount of time ‘bagging and tagging’ digital media on data integrity and could allow forensics
and making bit-by-bit image copies. Then they examiners to understand the sequential chain
verify this copy through the use of ‘hash values’ – of events faster and with more precision when
a unique number that changes if the evidence is conducting forensics analysis. Proof of integrity
tampered with – to show they are exact replicas. and time from a common block chain (with a
Given this backdrop, what is the next trend that common clock) enables unified timeline analysis,
will modernise cyberforensics? no matter where in the world the data is stored,
signed and verified by KSI. This could change the
BLOCK CHAIN TECHNOLOGY primary way that forensics examiners approach
A block chain is a type of database that gathers their data analysis, producing more accurate and
data into blocks, and then uses cryptographic faster results to help resolve insider data theft or
78
“The application of computer science and investigative procedures for a legal purpose
Defining Digital involving the analysis of digital evidence after proper search authority, chain of
2007
Forensics custody, validation with mathematics, use of validated tools, repeatability, reporting,
and possible expert presentation”6
Geo-location and cloud “Examination might require access to computer and network resources involving
2011
forensics expanded scope that may involve more than one venue and geolocation”7
“Employing forensics professionals that hold the credibility of a globally accepted and
Cyberforensics
2012 comprehensive certification … provides a strategic advantage for public and private
certification
organizations”8
Cloud forensics Outlined in US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cloud
2013
challenges Computing Forensic Science Challenges9
Hackers at home and Charges against five Chinese military hackers for cyber espionage signal a new era of
2014
abroad prosecutions by the US Department of Justice for theft of intellectual property data9
Use of block chain Growing recognition of the value that block chain-based technology provides for
2015
encryption cybersecurity, data validation and digital forensics.
CYBERFORENSICS
CASE STUDY
CHAPTER 8
I
future of forensic science.
fingerprint comparisons, and mobile access by the citizens of other EU countries is chiefly
to databases have made the initial stages of relatively low-level acquisitive crime, particularly
international criminal justice cooperation theft from shops. Overall, they account for
significantly faster and more efficient. But costs some 1% of prosecuted offences in the UK
will rise and delays are bound to occur – as they (significantly lower than the proportion of such
do in national investigations – when forensic- residents in the UK population) and appears to
science-derived information is assimilated and be concentrated geographically in the south-
appraised with other information in a case; east, eastern counties and Cumbria, rather than
and when there is formal procuratorial or dispersed nationally14.
judicial international cooperation, particularly Knowledge of these outcomes and trends
if extradition is required. It is not surprising, help to frame our general understanding of the
therefore, that international cooperation is criminological impact of globalisation. They do
predominantly focused on “preventing and not, however, indicate the scale of the challenge
combating organised crime, terrorism and other to the Criminal Justice System created by a
forms of serious crime”10. This is also reflected in significant number of extra offences, some of
the operation of the EU (‘Prüm’) arrangements which will be serious, and potential suspects. Bail
84 for the systematic exchange of forensic and sentencing decisions – in addition to the
biometric data11. conduct of investigations – require information
about criminal careers and real-world identity
THE SCALE AND NATURE OF that can only be obtained through cooperation
TRASNATIONAL OFFENDING AND with other jurisdictions. London exemplifies the
CRIMES increasing internationalisation of British policing.
Although the internationalisation of crime may Foreign-born people (not just from the EU)
increasingly affect UK society, overall crime comprised 37% of the population of central
rates in this country continue to fall. The London and 33% of the outer boroughs in 2013
most reliable data source, the Crime Survey (ref. 15), with foreign citizens accounting for
for England and Wales, last year contained the 25-30% of arrests16 and an estimated 25% of
lowest estimate since it began in 1981 (ref. 12). high-harm offenders (including organised crime
Increased movement and migration does group members and predatory sex offenders)17.
not appear to have had a major impact on In many investigations, sharing forensic biometric
criminal demographics, and the number of data will be either the only or the most efficient
first-time entrants dealt with by English and means of obtaining indispensable information.
Welsh criminal justice agencies has halved since Experience in the Netherlands demonstrates
2007. Where data does exist, crime by EU how the exchange of DNA data has provided
offenders in member states other than their potential investigative leads and unlocked access
own may be much lower than the proportion to criminal back histories (see Table 1).
of such people within the resident population A match between anonymous profiles
(approximately 4% of total crime in the Czech recovered from crime scenes in one or
Republic; 3% in Italy, Germany and Denmark; more countries may have considerable value
2.5% in the Netherlands; 1.5% in Slovakia; and if analysts can link such information with
less than 1% in Austria and Poland)13, 14. other crimes. This may eventually lead to the
There are no comparable national statistics identification of a possible suspect.
for England and Wales, but the most recent The international exchange of DNA data
analysis of available data reveals a picture and fingerprints can additionally identify trends
consistent with the pattern elsewhere: offending and spatial features in cross-border crime and
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Table 1: Transnational crime and DNA identifications in the Netherlands (at February 2015)18
offending. Used in this way, forensic science go further when committing crimes than offenders
data analysis can also be used to inform crime who have arrived in Belgium from the north. These
prevention strategies at a sub-regional level. For considerations are unlikely, however, to explain the
example, the initial exchanges of DNA data concentration of international offending in two
between Belgium, France and the Netherlands regions (Antwerp and Limburg). There, different
have shown that although all Belgian judicial levels and forms of economic activity may operate 85
districts have cases with an international as pull factors. If so, such considerations may need
dimension, some general trends can be to be covered in the international aspects of crime
discerned (see Figure 1). For instance, matches prevention strategies in those areas.
with France seem to have a greater affinity Such analytical techniques will become even
for southern districts than matches with the more powerful with the help of technological
Netherlands. Nationality cannot be inferred from platforms that integrate different types of forensic
the database from which the Belgian matches information. These might make use of knowledge
came, but there may be some correlation gained from human biological traces, the chemical
between the source of matches and the linguistic identification of illicit drugs and large amounts
regions. Generally, criminals travelling north may of digital evidence. Meanwhile, the exchange of
Figure 1: These maps of Belgium show the number and distribution of criminal cases associated with
matches (sometimes multiple matches in a single case) between DNA profiles held on the Dutch (left)
and French (right) databases with DNA profiles on the Belgian database19.
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
USA ORIGINAL
1998 13 6 N/A N/A
CODIS
UK (ENGLAND AND
2014 17 N/A 11 8 10
WALES) DNA-17
UK (SCOTLAND)
2015 24 17 N/A 13 14
DNA-24
USA CODIS CORE
2017 20 15 20 N/A 14
LOCI
Frye (1923)39 (still binding in many Daubert (1993)40 and the US Federal Reliability limb of the common
US state jurisdictions) Rules of Evidence law admissibility test, informed
by Criminal Procedure Rules and
related Criminal Practice Direction
in England and Wales (2014)
Has the underlying scientific principle Is the underlying reasoning or Is there a sufficiently reliable scientific
gained general acceptance in the methodology scientifically valid and can basis for the evidence to be admitted?
relevant scientific community? it properly be applied to the facts?
Has the underling theory or technique Whether material on which the opinion
been subjected to peer review and is based has been reviewed by others
publication in refereed journals? (e.g. peer reviewed) and, if so, what the
views of those others were
CASE STUDY
DISASTER VICTIM
IDENTIFICATION: MH17
JEN WILLIAMS, National Civil Contingencies and Disaster Victim Identification Coordinator, National Police Chiefs
O
Council (NPCC)
n 17 July 2014, a passenger plane of the victims, and how, where and when they
from Malaysian Airlines MH17 was died, meets the Interpol identification standards
shot down over eastern Ukraine and provides the additional required information.
by a missile. The flight was from Scotland and Northern Ireland have other rules,
Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and there were although the integrity of the investigation is
298 people on board. equally important.
The bodies landed in Shakhtarsk Region in a Interpol identification standards require
war zone with the area controlled by a militia of scientific identification by one of the primary
pro-Russian rebels. Human remains and debris identifiers: odontology, ridgeology (fingerprints
were spread over 34 square kilometres. Access and footprints) and DNA. DVI itself involves
was restricted and controlled by the rebels, matching ante mortem samples with post
90 and the human remains were collected by local mortem samples to provide a conclusive
farmers and miners. Of the 298 people killed in identification. This means working with the
this incident, 283 were passengers and 15 were family of the deceased to identify sources for
crew members. The nationalities encompassed primary identifiers from the family, home and
10 different countries with the majority being medical sources such as dentists and doctors.
from the Netherlands (193). Ten passengers The Dutch lead for the identification
were travelling on a British passport; 6 people processes invited colleagues from the Interpol
under the age of 21 were British dual nationals DVI Steering Group to assist with the
travelling on their other passport. management of the operation. The UK provided
The initial proposal was for the victims’ a DVI manager; a team for the mortuary
remains to be taken by train to Kharkiv, a that included an odontologist, a CT scanner
city controlled by Ukrainian authorities, for and radiography expertise; and a team for
the identification process. Following political reconciliation and identification files. Forensic and
negotiations it was agreed that the bodies intelligence collection within the UK and 3 other
would be flown to the Netherlands for the countries (Netherlands, New Zealand and South
identification processes. The first remains arrived Africa) provided the ante mortem samples for
in Kharkiv on 22 July, and the first flight to the the British Nationals.
Netherlands took place on 23 July. This was The challenge was immense, due to both the
unusual, as recovery and identification would collection methods and the disruption to the
normally take place in the country where the bodies, some of which were mere fragments.
incident occurred. However, the Netherlands Victims were identified by odontology (119),
is respected for its disaster victim identification fingerprints (64) and DNA (130), with some
(DVI) and is a member of the Interpol DVI having more than one primary identifier.
Steering Group. Secondary and supporting evidence was also
When UK citizens are killed abroad in sought in each case. There were 730 initial
suspicious circumstances and the remains post mortems, which increased to over 5000
returned to England or Wales, a coroner’s after DNA investigations on co-mingled human
investigation must be held. Therefore it is remains. To date, 296 of 298 victims have been
important that the investigation into the identity identified, and after the process was extended
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
CASE STUDY
FORENSIC ANALYSIS OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA
T
CERYS REES, Head of Chemical and Biological Analysis and Attribution, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl)
CASE STUDY
WILDLIFE CRIME
T
LUCY WEBSTER, Wildlife Forensic Scientist, Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture (SASA)
CHAPTER 9
F
of Crime Science science to prevent crimes from happening in the first place.
orensic science (FS) has contributed itself more relevant to the judicial system.
greatly to the evidence-base of But there may be even greater prospects for it
criminal investigations. It has beyond the confines of criminal justice. Since
triumphed in exposing miscarriages the inception of modern FS, which began with
of justice. It has evolved from a supporting role fingerprinting in the 19th century, it has been
to become a front-line analytic tool, often enlisted to help win a war that, ideally, would
directing the efforts of investigators. The vast have been averted in the first place. Traditionally
majority of serious cases, and a significant a criminal investigation follows in the wake of
proportion of all Crown Court cases, now victimisation; a key question for forensic science
include presentation of one or more types of is the extent to which science could pre-empt
forensic evidence, and public confidence in FS is the crime. Indeed, it is a remarkable that FS has
so robust that the Lord Chief Justice of England thus far mostly seen its role as downstream of
and Wales has wondered aloud about whether offending: finding someone to blame has had
such faith is justified1. more importance than finding a solution to
Many scientists share those doubts, as Itiel future crime.
96 Dror observes in Chapter 4. The US National Blame plainly has its merits. Catching and
Academy of Sciences concluded in 2009 that, convicting wrongdoers can create a triple-
“with the exception of DNA analysis, no forensic whammy: providing a much-needed sense of
method has been rigorously shown to have the justice, in some cases removing the wrongdoer’s
capacity to consistently, and with a high degree freedom to cause more harm, and, ideally,
of certainty, demonstrate a connection between deterring future crime.
evidence and a specific individual or source.”2 But court dispositions seem to have had
There are other legitimate concerns about disappointingly little influence on the ebb and
the use of FS in court, not least those of critics flow of offending. In Britain, this pattern was
like Dror who warn that FS may help legitimise obscured because of a reliance on data recorded
deep-seated weaknesses in court processes. by the police, which capture less than half of
These include a reliance on adversarial methods crime revealed by other methods3, 4 (see Figure
and on precedent, strict rules which exclude 1) and can be vulnerable to recording error
evidence from being aired, and a demand for a and deliberate obfuscation – so much so that in
binary outcome. No other questions that relate 2014 the UK Statistics Authority suspended their
to public safety are now judged in this way. designation as National Statistics. At least one
There is also the matter of cost. The chief constable has described them as “dead in
criminal law is facing a financial crisis. Against a the water”5.
trend in which many goods and services have Victims surveys such as the Crime Survey
experienced price deflation, the expense and for England and Wales (CSEW)3 have become
length of court cases has been rising steadily for the preferred method for measuring trends
a century. It is far from clear whether, on balance, in all but the rarest of crimes. Mark Bangs,
FS makes the Criminal Justice System nimbler senior statistician in the Office for National
and more cost-effective (see Chapter 2 case Statistics’ Crime Statistics and Analysis Team,
study p29). says: “The CSEW provides a better reflection
of the extent of crime than police recorded
PRE-EMPTING CRIME figures, as the survey asks about crimes that
There are major opportunities for FS to refine are not reported to or recorded by the police.
its techniques, be more economical, and make The survey is also unaffected by changes in
DESIGNING OUT CRIME
Figure 1: Trends in police-recorded crime for England and Wales, compared with Crime Survey for England and Wales3, 4
20,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
X
6,000
X
4,000
2,000 97
0
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2010/11
Yr end Jun 14
Yr end Jun 15
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998/99
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2011/12
Figure 2: Trends in crime: average of one-year prevalence rates (the number of people who have experienced that crime)
for selected property thefts in 15 Western countries7.
4
Theft from a car
Bicycle theft
Burglary
Attempted burglary
2
Theft of a car
Theft of a motorcycle
recorded offences halved within eight years and whom bullying has always been a problem (see
have continued to plummet. case study p102). The link between opportunity
There are dozens of similar stories where and violence is less clear-cut than in acquisitive
thoughtless innovation led to surges in crime and crime, but correlations like those between
where sensible interventions led to precipitous knife-carrying and wounding in Scotland suggests
drops. Within a few years of the replacement of that opportunity makes the killer as well as the
shop counters in favour of self-service checkouts thief. There are also many theories about the
there was, perhaps inevitably, a surge in falling rates of violent crime – from abortion
shoplifting9, one in which prominent middle-class leading to fewer unwanted male children, to
people were caught up along with those whom declining alcohol and drug use, or even a drop
conventional criminology might have predicted in atmospheric lead concentrations – all showing
to be criminals. When prosecutions failed to some degree of persuasive correlation, though
stem the losses, retailers began to introduce an none consistently. The simplest reason – the
array of surrogate shop counters in the form Occam’s Razor answer – might be that physical
of RF readers, dummy display packaging, CCTV theft acts as a recruiting sergeant to more
and security guards. Similarly, as consumerism serious offending, so that as stealing declines
took off and ordinary homes became filled so, eventually, will assault. There are probably
with tempting products such as TVs and video many factors working in tandem, some much
recorders, domestic burglary surged until in more important than others. On the other hand
1989 the Association of Chief Police Officers, there are unequivocal connections between
endorsed by the Home Office and the circumstance and many types of offending.
insurance industry, introduced new standards for Among these are internet-enabled crimes, such
new and refurbished properties called Secured as spamming, scamming, identity theft, child
By Design. As deadlocks, double-glazing, and sexual exploitation and fraud; ill-conceived 99
intruder alarms became widespread, the rate of expense-claim systems like those that ensnared
burglaries fell emphatically and consistently for so many otherwise honourable MPs; or the
quarter of a century. multi-billion pound tricks and swindles within
Violent crime too has been curbed by poorly supervised financial service industries.
prudent interventions intended to make Just as we have learned to curb blue-collar
circumstances default to safety rather than offences, we have thrown open vulnerabilities
provocation. Segregating rival football fans and to white-collar ones, tempting largely different
penalising clubs for misbehaviour restored populations to offend and demonstrating clearly
respect for British soccer after years of global that the middle-classes are no more immune to
infamy. Redesigning spaces so that drinkers are temptation and opportunity than are the poor –
jostled less, provided with food, or supplied with or for that matter the exceedingly rich.
harmless glassware has had a marked effect on
casualties where alcohol is implicated. Sometimes THE OPPORTUNITIES OF SCIENCE
circumstantial change has on its own fuelled There is ample opportunity here for the insights
or quelled crime waves. The rising popularity and methodologies of science to save us from
of mobile phones and portable electronic future harm. Science uses observable, testable
gadgets propelled a swell of street robberies and repeatable measurements and experiments
until their security measures made mugging to understand how things commonly behave.
increasingly redundant – mobile phone theft is It is a systematic process of evaluating theories
now concentrated mostly between children for through meticulous control of contaminating
CASE STUDY
T
CHRIS HUGHES, Chair of the National DNA Database Ethics Group
CASE STUDY
M
NICK ROSS, Chairman, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
$500m
$450m
Tumbling & Cloning Losses
$400m Subscription Frauds
$350m
$300m
$250m
$200m
$150m
$100m 103
$50m
Jun ‘95
Jun ‘93
Jun ‘92
Jun ‘94
Jun ‘96
Jun ‘98
Jun ‘99
Jun ‘97
Dec ‘92
Dec ‘93
Dec ‘94
Dec ‘95
Dec ‘96
Dec ‘97
Dec ‘98
Dec ‘99
easily be assumed to have been stolen. But manufacturer, and so bring pressure on suppliers
it provides the best estimate we have, and to make their products, and thus their customers,
suggests a very steep decrease in victimisation more crime-resistant.
over the preceding decade5. It seems likely this The study involved more than 100,000
decline owed much to the fact that trackable mobile phone thefts reported in London
phones have little black market value. A causal between August 2012 and January 20147. As
relationship is hard to prove but there are many with previous research it found evidence to
precedents, including sustained and precipitous suggest that phone theft is disproportionately
falls in vehicle crime after security features targeted at the young. It also revealed that
were improved (see case study p105). There is women were victimised more than men. More
also evidence from phone thieves themselves importantly for crime prevention, BIT was able
who, after all, make essentially rational targeting to build on others’ work8 to produce the first
decisions6. Even so, with an estimated 784,000 official Mobile Phone Theft Ratio. The outcome
victims a year in England and Wales in 2013-4, was striking. Crime surveys had already shown
handset theft is still a significant challenge for that more iPhones were reported stolen
society4. than other handsets, but by comparing thefts
Consequently, the Behavioural Insights Team against volumes of suspected, untargeted
(BIT) worked with the Home Office and the thefts, the researchers showed that this was
Metropolitan Police Service to see if some not merely a reflection of how many were in
handsets provoked more crime than others. circulation. In fact, Apple products were targeted
If so, they could rank phones by type and disproportionately (see Figure 2).
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
Figure 2: The Mobile Phone Theft Ratio: The top 20 most likely phones to be targeted by thieves between August 2012
and January 2014 (ref. 7). This ratio is derived by dividing the share of thefts of a given model that were plausibly targeted
(e.g. a phone that has been snatched) by the share of thefts of a given model that was unlikely to have been targeted (e.g. a
phone stolen as part of a burglary).
iPhone 6 Plus
iPhone 6
HTC M8
Samsung Galaxy Note 3
BB 9320
LG Nexus 5
iPhone 5s
Samsung Galaxy Note
iPhone 5c
iPhone 5
Samsung Galaxy 3
Samsung Galaxy Note 2
HTC One
Blackberry Z10
Samsung Galaxy Mini
Samsung Galaxy S3
Samsung Galaxy Alpha
iPhone 4s
iPhone 3Gs
Blackberry 9900
104 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
This ratio is derived by dividing the share proposes to update the Theft Ratio and provide
of thefts of a given model that were plausibly comparison websites to inform consumers,
targeted (e.g. a phone that has been snatched) encourage industry innovation and promote
by the share of thefts of a given model that was wider use of existing security features.)
unlikely to have been targeted (e.g. a phone The research adds weight to the already
stolen as part of a burglary). impressive volume of evidence that crime is not
This may reflect that iPhones were expensive, determined by personality or social factors alone
which made it tempting to report thefts in but, perhaps more importantly, by the ease and
order to make insurance claims. Moreover, Apple attractiveness of committing an offence. Since
might protest that its products were especially a proportion of phone theft involves physical
fashionable in this period and so more desirable assault, there is evidence that violent crime as
to thieves. But the analysis also suggested that well as acquisitive crime can be curbed with
suppliers can control crime rates to a great increasing effectiveness.
extent. In September 2013, Apple introduced a Consumers need to be informed about the
new operating system called iOS7 with a ‘Find relative risks they face, and government and
My Phone’ function that could remotely lock other agencies should recognise they have a
the handset. When the feature was announced, role in targeting appropriate and proportionate
reported thefts of Apple phones subsequently pressure on those whose products unwittingly
peaked and then declined markedly, unlike those create crime pollution.
from other manufacturers. Cutting victimisation requires forensic science
Analysis showed that this decline was unique techniques to be applied at the design stage, not
to Apple, and theft rates for other phones after poorly thought-through products, services
did not drop at the same time. In the months or policies have already been subject to misuse.
that followed, as more security features were
embedded in more devices, recorded mobile
phone crime as a whole continued to fall9. (BIT
DESIGNING OUT CRIME
CASE STUDY
T
MIKE BRIGGS, Crime Research Manager at Thatcham Research
he impact of vehicle crime goes reduction in vehicle theft (see Figure 1). The UK
far beyond car theft – it enables branch of the International Association of Auto
many other crimes, from joy Theft Investigators (IAATI UK) now acts as an
riding and fraud to terrorism. important forum for those involved in tackling
Twenty years ago, the rate of vehicle crime was vehicle crime to share information and best
high and getting worse, so the UK government practice.
persuaded the motor insurance industry to set However, vehicle crime rates may now be at
security standards that would counteract this a turning point. When manufacturers bring in
trend. Efforts to tackle criminals in this area, by new technology, so too do organised criminal
undermining their systems and knowledge, are gangs (OCGs). As soon as we find ways to raise
still being led by the United Kingdom. security standards, OCGs find new weaknesses
Those security standards included fitting in those systems. Over the past 4 years, we have
vehicles with an immobiliser and insurance- seen a rise in OCGs attacking vehicles and, in
certificated alarm. But manufacturers could also some cases, removing them more effectively than
take components off the vehicle – reducing the owners could themselves. Indeed, vehicle
the number of door locks, for example – in recovery rates are now at their lowest since 105
order to defend those components at less records begin (see Figure 2), and the costs of the
cost. These changes, based on standards set crimes are rising because younger vehicles are
by Thatcham, started the trend for a dramatic being stolen.
Figure 1: UK domestic vehicle theft has fallen dramatically over the past two decades.
1,200
Theft from vehicle
Counting Rule changes
Theft of vehicle
1,000 Alarm NVSA 3
NVSA 4 Interfering with a
Number of offences (000s)
800 NVSA 4a
600
NVSA 5
400
Immobilisation NVSA
200
0
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2010/11
2012/13
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998/99
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2011/12
2013/14
1. New Counting Rules for recorded crime were introduced in 1998/99 and the NCRS was introduced in April 2002.
2. Interfering with a motor vehicle became a notifiable offence in 1998/99.
THE CHANGING NATURE OF CRIME
That means my team and I must set security Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are
standards that anticipate a thief ’s next move. designing new ways to combat criminal gangs.
But generally it is the aftermarket industry that
We focus on three key areas: fills the gap, as they once did with immobilisers
1 Body security and alarms. Today we see the same happening
• Protecting on-board diagnostic (OBD) with vehicle tracking systems.
systems Tracking and navigation systems allow us to
• Additional locks, including wheel security recover evidence, and we also gain vital data
• Catalyst converter protection from keys and vehicle control units. But the
falling costs of technologies such as fully-keyless
2 Electronic security door unlock and keyless engine start means that
• Alarm Systems criminals can also exploit them to steal vehicles,
• Immobiliser Systems and we are in danger of seeing a fresh surge in
• Tracking systems joy riding.
Beyond that, cybercrime is the next big threat
3. Vehicle identification to tackle. Criminals have been interfering with
• Parts marking, with details recorded in a vehicle software since the late 1990s, but they
database available 24/7 are now able to carry out these attacks much
• Glass etching, with details recorded in a more rapidly: the times required to code a key
database available 24/7 or start the engine have fallen from over 30
• General vehicle identification, through minutes to 6 seconds.
106 security schemes such as CESAR or Further information can be found at
MASTER www.thatcham.org
Figure 2: UK domestic vehicle recovery has declined substantially over the past two decades.
3,500 70%
Number of offences (000s)
3,000 60%
2,500 50%
2,000 40%
1,500 30%
1,000 20%
500 10%
0 0%
VM137
VM065
VM100
VM021
VM140
VM044
VM141
VM035
VM035
VM006
VM015
VM085
VM036
VM147
VM071
FORENSIC SCIENCE:
BEYOND THE COURT
Today, economic
adulteration and
counterfeiting of global
food and consumer WHO’s international Medical Products
products is expected Anti-Counterfeiting Taskforce (IMPACT)
to cost industry estimate that up to
$10 - $15 25% of the total
billion medicine supply
per year in less-developed countries is counterfeit
Microtags are micrometre-sized particles uniquely encoded with multiple layers of security information within
the space of 50-110 micrometres (the size of a speck of dust)
10
Milk Fish
Coffee Tea
Organic
Fruit juices food
Currently 713 GPHF-Minilab units
are used globally across 92 countries
to fight the counterfeit drug trade.
$250 billion
Larger than the national GDPs of approx.
150 economies
In 2014, over
35 million
fakes were detained at EU
borders. Of these, 25% were
potentially dangerous to the
health and safety of consumers
Around half
of some air pollutants in the UK
come from other parts of Europe
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CHAPTER 10
C
and the measurement community.
onsumers seek a range of desirable can a retailer be sure of the products it provides?
attributes when purchasing goods, Such assurance depends on an understanding and
but some qualities are self- monitoring of risks; and related to this, managing
evidently common across many and auditing product, ingredient and component
product types: safety, provenance, utility and supply chains, as well as production processes.
value for money. The seller is responsible for The aim should be to establish trust in the supply
being honest about what is claimed for their chain, earned by demonstrated (and audited)
goods – either directly or by implication – and competence and integrity; but also backed up by
society expects regulation of legal or quality systems able to secure the supply chain against
standards in associated markets. Subversion of criminal infiltration. Risk assessment is also a
such standards, ranging from cutting corners to critical component of regulatory enforcement
outright criminality is, unfortunately, increasingly strategies. Allied to both enforcement and supply-
common. Indeed, according to reports1,2, the chain management is the need for detection tools
110 annual international global trade in counterfeit that can be deployed in specialised laboratories or
goods alone is measured in the hundreds of in the field to test for conformity.
billions of pounds.
Consumers and businesses place a premium THE DETECTION CHALLENGE
on the authenticity and integrity of goods and Detection involves compositional analysis, to test
services. The converse – involving fraud or poor whether a product contains what is claimed. This
quality standards – jeopardises honest businesses, can uncover the potential substitution, extension
consumer trust and health. Examples include or adulteration of the product with similar but
the horse meat episode3, the dangers associated cheaper ingredients; the presence of undeclared
with trade in counterfeit pharmaceuticals4, the ingredients or components that may be added
economic impact of counterfeit electronics, the to reduce production costs or increase the sale
well recorded morbidity and mortality caused by price; the over-declaration of key or quantitative
counterfeit alcoholic drinks5,6, and risks to people ingredients; and compliance issues such as non-
with food allergies due to inadvertent exposure declaration or false declaration of processes.
to allergens7. The extent and impact of these at Investigators also need tools that can verify claims
a sector level is described in Chapters 11, 12 and about the origins of product ingredients, and
13. the location of production: in other words, who
Consumers rely on retailers and regulators to made it and what did they make it from?
assure the quality and authenticity of goods, and For example, whether a wine or whiskey is of
it is unlikely that emerging technology will change the age and from the location indicated on the
this dependence in the immediate future. So how bottle; or whether clothes or cosmetics were
made by the company named on the label. Is THE RANGE OF POTENTIAL ISSUES
it Scottish beef? Or Parma ham? The range of
potential issues is wide and changing, and often IS WIDE AND CHANGING, AND
motivated by the high financial gains that can be OFTEN MOTIVATED BY THE HIGH
made through illegal activity.
The most counterfeited products are
FINANCIAL GAINS THAT CAN BE
those of higher price, by virtue of intellectual MADE THROUGH ILLEGAL ACTIVITY.
property or brand equity, and/or the scarcity
of components or ingredients, or the cost of
complex production or processing. This provides
a degree of predictability that can be built in technology advancement.
to risk assessments, and which enables better This complexity might in future benefit from
targeting of enforcement resources. Prediction developments in ‘big data’ by capturing, combining
of risk forms an important part of the National and analysing multiple and variable information
Intelligence Model8, which is also informed by sources to improve risk assessment and incident
horizon-scanning: using global data feeds of prediction. As yet, there is insufficient information
recalls or incidents, for example, as well as local sharing across multiple interfaces: from agency
information from whistleblowers. Regulatory to agency, and especially between some parts of
bodies monitor incidents and recalls at national, industry and government. Until our intelligence
regional and global levels. For pharmaceuticals, systems improve, it remains highly likely that
national authorities such as the UK’s Medicines incidents and criminal activity will continue to be
and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency detected on a regular basis through health events
(MHRA) post information on local recalls9 (as is still the case for the many deaths caused
while the World Health Organization provides by counterfeit medicines, particularly in the 111
information on counterfeit medicines at a global developing world) or by targeted surveillance by
level10. Similarly in the foods area, EU member Trading Standards and government programmes
states have national systems for reporting non- (as was the case with horse meat). It is also
compliance incidents relating to food and feed worth reflecting that improved intelligence can
that has been inspected on the market or at the only partially mitigate the likelihood of fraud, since
border, and if appropriate these are shared across those involved in related criminal activity have a
geographies through the Rapid Alert System very wide field of opportunity and are normally
for Food and Feed11 operated by the European adept at reacting to intelligence-led activities.
Commission.
Although incidents or recalls report events DEVELOPMENTS IN MEASUREMENT
after they have happened, they provide an insight SCIENCE
into the potential for similar events to occur in Given the challenges of identifying areas of future
the future and are consequently useful data feeds concern, detection technology is needed that can
for organisations that review risk (such as the not only analyse for specific ingredients (‘known
European Food Safety Authority’s Stakeholder knowns’), but also screen for potential adulterants
Group on Emerging Risks, and the EU Food (‘known unknowns’) and ideally for anything that
Fraud Network). However, better prediction of should not be present within the end product
quality or authenticity issues requires complex (‘unknown unknowns’). The later, often termed
interpretation of multiple information sets that ‘untargeted analysis’, creates a major challenge in
include an understanding of influencing factors measurement science and will most likely require
such as price, production cost, supply chain and the flexible application of multiple techniques to
manufacturing complexity, regulatory activity, deliver the necessary range of sensitivities and
ease of ingredient or component substitution, chemical or biological diversity.
likelihood of identification, and ease of detection. Fortunately, developments in measurement
Each of these influencers is subject to change science continue to enhance investigative
in response to macroeconomic factors such capability. The major trends include an increased
as oil price, consumer confidence, materials ability to screen for multiple chemicals or
demand and global outputs (e.g. crop yields) and biological forms; improvements in sensitivity; and
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CASE STUDY
NUCLEAR FORENSICS
S
VLADIMÍR ŠUCHA, MARIA BETTI AND KLAUS LÜTZENKIRCHEN, Joint Research Centre, European Commission
external input, as well as those that seek specific and count individual molecules. These advances
chemicals or chemical sequences. Approaches offer great potential for diagnostics, for research
that depend on reference databases include: at the cellular level and for identifying potentially
• multi-spectral imaging for determining food harmful contaminants. However, the application
authenticity19 of ultra-sensitive techniques in forensics and
• near infra-red (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy, compliance testing needs to be approached with
which are useful for pharmaceutical counterfeit appropriate interpretative caution.
detection20 due their discriminating power, For example, as the relevance and value of
portability and relatively simple operation (see DNA profiling to forensic investigations has
Chapter 12, case study p138) increased, so too has the desire to generate
• electrical and optical testing, and digital imaging, this information from smaller amounts of DNA.
of electrical components21 When the level of DNA in a sample falls well
• spectroscopic methods for detecting below the recommended threshold it is still
counterfeit clothing22 possible to generate interpretable profiles, but
these need to be evaluated more carefully:
TEASING OUT TRACES contamination raises the risk of misidentification,
114 Advances in measurement science have not and there is a greater likelihood of obtaining
only improved our ability to screen multiple partial profiles and seeing other imperfections in
components – they have also allowed the DNA amplification process that might lead
investigators to detect compounds at increasingly to incorrect interpretation of the data25. These
diminishing levels. Forensic science remains a challenges in DNA apply equally to issues in
catalyst for this trend: it aims to generate DNA authenticity and compliance, such as the presence
data whenever possible; to find traces of chemical of trace levels of species (for example, genetically
warfare agents and their derivatives, which may modified organisms) in processed foods and
inform security activities; and to provide evidence other products.
of criminal activity, such as the handling of drugs. Many synthetic chemicals can now
Our ability to extract and amplify DNA be detected at background levels in the
is now such that, in principle, it is possible to environment. These levels and variations need
detect single gene copies, even against a high to be understood before setting meaningful
background of genetic material. For example, action or compliance limits, as do the current
digital PCR23 (dPCR), an approach first developed limitations of associated measurement capability
in the 1990s, is a technique that is used to (see Chapter 14). As such, regulation and policy
quantify the amount of DNA in a sample by that is based on based on zero tolerance,
counting amplifications from single molecules. such as banned veterinary residues in food
Improvements in MS are leading to selective and drugs in sport, will become increasingly
methods that can detect molecules at less than difficult to enforce without effective guidelines
a picogram (10-12 g) per kilogram of sample. for interpretation. Such guidelines should
Even higher sensitivities are possible using recognise well-developed statistical techniques
immunoassays, in which improved affinities, in hypothesis testing and advances in toxicology
better methods and novel forms of detection such as margin of exposure26 comparative
have enabled signal generation with femtogram risk assessment. We need further exploration
(10-15 g) to attogram (10-18 g) levels of input and dissemination of approaches to establish
material24. Indeed, the combination of sensitive practical yet suitably precautionary approaches
detection with solution partition or imaging has to essentially unanswerable questions such
led to a number of approaches that can detect as “Is it nut free?” or “Is it carcinogen-free?”.
AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE
Can anything ever be claimed as ‘pure’? (see techniques are increasingly being evaluated for
case study on p120). To what extent does use in traceability studies, as is evident from the
the presence of chemicals at ultra-trace levels number of national and international traceability
really indicate contamination or adulteration, projects now in existence (e.g. Labelfish, the
or represent a meaningful risk to consumers? Atlantic Network on Genetic Control of Fish and
These are questions that will need to be Seafood Labelling and Traceability). Approaches
addressed as our measurement tool kit including end-point PCR, real-time PCR, and
continues to advance. Moreover, there is an DNA sequencing can identify and capitalise
unmet need for the development and teaching upon minute differences in the genome of
of end-to-end interpretative skills across geographically-isolated populations of the same
multiple disciplines in areas such as forensic species, and can be used to augment the more
science and food crime. routinely used elemental and isotope-based
Traditional crime scene forensic investigations measurements for point-of-origin studies.
draw together all of the available evidence and
then apply multiple techniques in order to build IN THE FIELD
up a picture of what occurred, and the roles of All of the advanced detection and identification
the specific individuals that were present when technology described so far is normally operated
the offence was committed. There are analogies in controlled laboratory environments, with
here with the more general fight against fraud documented and accredited quality systems that
and counterfeiting, where the article is often incorporate procedures for calibration (by using
distributed with additional components, and appropriate certified reference materials, for
where potential surface contamination can example).
provide useful intelligence. These additional and These laboratory measurements can provide
rich sources of information reside, for example, in reliable data that is quantified to a known level 115
the form of external packaging and blister packs of uncertainty, satisfying the needs of regulators
for pharmaceuticals; labels and logos for designer and our legal system. However, laboratory
goods; and packaging and identification numbers measurement requires samples to be taken
for electronic devices. from the field, transported and administratively
Similar to crime scene forensics, analysing processed prior to analysis. This takes time
products and their associated articles for (typically days) and requires systems to be in
authenticity and compliance often requires place for tracking and ensuring continuity of
multiple measurement techniques, including evidence. Ultimately, though, the data generated
specialist methods that are not routinely is only representative of the sample provided, and
applied in product quality control and assurance hence interpretation is needed to elucidate how
(see Chapter 11). Notable in this respect is the this relates to the entire batch of product under
emergence of isotope ratio measurement27, investigation.
which exploits the subtle geographic differences These limitations mean that there is now
in the ratios of stable isotopes of common significant interest in techniques that can
elements to investigate claims about a product’s be applied in the field to provide real-time
origin. This is potentially the most challenging information, and to assist in product sampling
of all authenticity issues e.g. is this Atlantic or strategies to maximise the likelihood of detecting
Pacific cod? Was this chemical made in factory non-compliant or fraudulent events. A range of
X or factory Y? Was this wine made from technologies are under development for field
grapes produced in region A or B? (see case application, and there are already a number
study on p118).
Although both elemental and isotope-based
measurements provide the basis for much of LABORATORY MEASUREMENT REQUIRES
the information pertaining to the point of origin SAMPLES TO BE TAKEN FROM THE FIELD,
of animals, plants and food products, alternative
rapid and cost effective methodologies are TRANSPORTED AND ADMINISTRATIVELY
also being examined. For example, molecular PROCESSED PRIOR TO ANALYSIS.
biology approaches that focus on DNA-based
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CASE STUDY
PROVENANCE OF
NUCLEAR MATERIALS
DANIEL THOMAS, Nuclear Threat Reduction, AWE
Imagine the following scenario, and the a scene, an object, a person or persons, identify
questions it raises: the radioactive material and show where
• Police receive a phone call claiming that a ‘dirty it could have originated. This relies on the
bomb’ has been placed in central London. Is longstanding capabilities of AWE (the Atomic
this real, or a hoax? Is there anything to find? Weapons Establishment) in this area, which have
How to find it? been enhanced in recent years by the Ministry
• Police then find a suspect package. Is this of Defence in order to respond to developing
what they’re looking for? Is it a radiological or needs such as provenance. The Office for
nuclear device? What precautions are needed? Security and Counterterrorism in the
• Investigators confirm that the device contains Home Office also funded the Conventional
nuclear material and explosives. But is it an Forensic Analysis Capability (CFAC) at AWE,
improvised nuclear device (IND)? What could which provides the capability to carry out
116 the consequences be if it is detonated? recovery of fingerprints, DNA, fibres, hairs,
• The device is made safe, and nobody is injured. and digital information from radioactively-
But who was involved in building and planting contaminated items.
the device? How did it happen? Where did the The approach taken at AWE, on behalf of the
material come from? How was the material UK government, has been to ensure that nuclear
removed from normal regulatory control? Is forensics can be carried out in an integrated
this our material? If not, where did it come fashion, by bringing normally disparate technical
from? Could there be other devices, or more disciplines together. Experts from a range
lost material of concern? of disciplines will increasingly need to work
together in order to solve the forensic puzzles
Throughout this scenario it is clear that the presented by perpetrators.
government, the police service and supporting Nuclear materials have been produced
agencies would be faced with a multitude of globally over many decades in facilities that were
urgent issues before investigative and forensic focused on producing material and meeting
questions can be addressed. Nuclear materials the required specifications; personnel were not
that represent the gravest concerns – those tasked with helping to establish provenance
which can be used to build a nuclear device following the loss and subsequent discovery of
– typically have half-lives longer than tens of that material. Consequently, there will probably
thousands of years, giving them an enduring not be a predetermined ‘unique fingerprint’ for
potential for misuse. identifying the provenance of many materials,
But provenance will ultimately become a key nor will historical records necessarily provide
question, asked by the most senior decision- the fidelity of data required for provenance
makers. They will want to know where and assessments that use a data matching approach.
how the material was acquired, and who was The challenges arising from questions
involved. Nuclear forensics has a key role to play of provenance mean that new interpretive
in answering these questions, by using forensic knowledge is being developed, in addition
analysis to assess these radioactive substances as to the analytical capabilities to measure the
well as items contaminated by them. properties of materials. New technical skills such
Nuclear forensics can draw out links between as chemical modelling and statistical analysis will
AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE
CASE STUDY
FORENSIC GEOSCIENCE
LORNA DAWSON, Head of the Soil Forensic Group, James Hutton Institute; and RUTH MORGAN, Director of the
F
UCL Centre for the Forensic Sciences
CASE STUDY
NOTIONS OF PURITY:
AN ANTHROPOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE
P
FRANCESCA BRAY, Social Anthropology, University of Edinburgh
urity and pollution were initially understanding that pigs’ meat carries parasites
treated in anthropology as exclusively dangerous to human health. This common-
religious concepts1–3, and they remain sense interpretation, popular among cultural
a central concern in the anthropolo- ecologists through the 1950s and 1960s and
gy of religion today. Though variously defined in most vividly formulated by the cultural materialist
different religions, purity is everywhere a spiritual Marvin Harris, today attracts little anthropological
precondition for communicating with the gods but much popular interest13, 14. “Comparative
through prayer or ritual. religion has always been bedevilled by medical
Purity can be defiled by inappropriate emotions materialism,” Mary Douglas remarks tartly15.
or thoughts, acts or contacts, by sickness and The second school of thought about purity
by passages through the life cycle, notably birth, and pollution originated in 19th and early 20th
menstruation and death. Some categories century studies by Robertson Smith, Émile
of people, things or acts are inherently and Durkheim and others who argued that religions
120 irrevocably tainted: a Hindu untouchable cannot are neither divinely inspired nor materially rooted.
become touchable however pious his behaviour; Rather, they are an expression of collective values.
in ancient Greece or imperial China there was Sacred and secular must therefore be analysed
no redemption for the parricide. Much pollution, not as separate domains but as interdependent
however, is transitory and an affected individual can elements of a single moral-symbolic system.
achieve or regain purity through rituals, discipline, It was the structuralist anthropologists of the
pilgrimage, fasting or simply the passage of time. 1960s who breathed new life and vigour into
For example, Christianity requires the ‘churching’ this approach. The landmark study was ‘Purity
of a woman who has given birth; in Chinese and Danger’ by Mary Douglas. A focus on purity
Buddhism the taint of a family death dissipates and pollution, Douglas showed, can illuminate the
gradually, aided by a sequence of sacrifices for the deepest workings of any society, including our
soul of the departed and their transformation into own. While the categories of purity and pollution
an ancestral spirit. Typical prohibitions for saints may be most evident in the religious and ritual
and priests, and for the laity before conducting domain, they reflect deeper structures of symbolic
major rituals or undergoing rites of passage, thought manifested in secular values and everyday
include bans on sexual intercourse, eating meat or practices, from the preparation of meals to
expressing anger.Views on alcohol differ between definitions of nationality10, 16.
religions: in some it is permanently forbidden to Dirt is matter out of place, Douglas famously
all the faithful, in others one should abstain before remarked, and its threat to purity must therefore
praying, some require officiants to share blessed be approached through order: “Uncleanness or
wine with their congregation, while some require dirt is that which must not be included if a pattern
anyone offering a sacrifice to be roaring drunk4–12. is to be maintained,” she wrote17. Danger lies
How do we explain similarities and differences not in the existence of the unclean per se, but in
in how purity and pollution are construed? the transgression of boundaries, the mingling of
Anthropologists have taken two distinctive categories, the contamination of pure by
approaches. One pragmatic, materialist school impure4, 12. Douglas’s important insight has inspired
has sought to explain ‘native’ rules about purity as a succession of groundbreaking anthropological
proto-scientific systems of hygiene, for instance studies of the imperatives of purity in such diverse
interpreting the Judaic taboo on pork as a latent fields as racial science, nationalism, victims of
AUTHENTICITY AND PROVENANCE
atomic disasters, etiologies of AIDS, and views of research, seek effective catalysts for the reactions
genetic engineering18–23. they want to produce, design instruments, carefully
The underlying assumption here is that purity select and breed experimental animals to fit the
is the desired state which any taint impairs. But experiments, pre-select the ecological niches or
this attitude is more culture-bound than we soil cores with which they investigate ‘nature’27–29.
realise. The development of modern science is a In the process, definition and distinction become
history of purification. In order to extract better increasingly complex and challenging. Is a pest-
knowledge, chemists, engineers and physicists have resistant GM eggplant more or less pure, natural
quarried the messy material stuff that surrounds and organic than a non-GM eggplant treated
us; isolated and purified it in order to classify it and with pesticides? From atmospheric levels of sulfur
study its properties. Nature is then rendered into dioxide to the meat content of a proper sausage,
its very purest form – abstract thought: theories scientists, regulators, legislators, corporations,
or laws of universal validity, expressed in terse, farmers, shopkeepers, activists and consumers 121
uncontextualised verbal or numerical form24. wrangle continually over definitions and degrees of
As Bruno Latour observes, a defining premise safe, acceptable or simply workable purity, impurity
of modern sciences, both natural and social, or contamination30–32.
and indeed of our modern life generally, is that Even in the strictly material sense, then, purity
objectivity is considered both possible and is not a state of nature, nor is it unconditionally
necessary. We have supposedly escaped the desirable. While regimes of purification bring
primitive entanglement of mind, soul and body, of greater control, more predictability and increased
moral and material. Instead we bring an effective efficiency, they also contain the threat of inbreeding,
approach to the world and its problems that sterility and vulnerability. Purity and hybridity
categorically separates the social and the natural, become inextricably entangled33. Pure lines of
the human and the artefact, the mind and the wheat cannot rival hybrids for yields. They are
objectively observable fact – a universal science painstakingly bred not to grow in their own right
beyond politics or creed25. but to cross breed into high-yield hybrids. Hybrids,
But in reality such purification is impossible, however, do not breed true and must be replaced
as Latour and his fellow researchers in science yearly. In the case of wheat, pure lines must be
and technology studies have shown. Science maintained to reproduce the essential hybrids.
depends on funding and politics. Politics and power One could argue that in the case of human
permeate every human act. Researchers are societies, a similar if not identical dialectic between
cultural, political and often religious beings: nuclear purity and hybridisation, analogous processes
scientists conduct rituals and rites of passage of hybridisation, miscegenation and tincture, are
as part of their research; particle physicists and essential for long-term health and survival. And yet,
molecular biologists evaluate the quality of evidence as anthropological studies of assisted reproductive
in quite distinctive ways26. Environments are co- technologies or of immigration vividly illustrate,
produced by the collectivity of their denizens, they are widely viewed with misgiving, resentment
and humans more than any other life form have or fear16, 19, 34, 35. The anthropology of purity
remade ‘nature’ in their own image throughout reminds us that culture, politics and morality are
their existence. Scientists do not discover nature intrinsic to any scientific or legislative attempt to
in the raw; they define the categories they will classify or to purify.
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CHAPTER 11
T
European Commission
Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), is Standards Agency8, for example, food fraud is
one of the few examples where compositional committed when food is deliberately placed on
data of a premier agricultural product are the market, for financial gain, with the intention
systematically collected. The databank contains of deceiving the consumer.
the isotopic composition of wines, which are Certain diagnostic tests, in particular those
made available to the competent authorities in based on DNA analysis, are highly sensitive
the Member States when disputes regarding and can indicate the presence of exogenous
watering or sugaring of wine arise. DNA as a result of contamination due to
cross-contact with other foodstuffs. To decide
3 Creating reliable forensic evidence and whether the presence of a foreign substance
confidence in the data that will stand up is due to accidental contamination or intended
to scrutiny in the judicial system. Cases co-mingling requires an assessment of the
124 where only one marker forms the basis for amount of the substance present, which is not
discriminating the genuine and the adulterated straightforward to derive from the quantity of
product are relatively straightforward to foreign DNA. This kind of uncertainty needs to
handle, taking into consideration the empirical be taken account of when weighing the forensic
distribution of the marker, as well as the evidence in a court of law.
uncertainty in the measurement of the The horsemeat adulteration scandal showed
marker. But things get more complicated that one of the weaknesses of the current
when complex statistical models using many system of enforcement along the food chain
input variables (e.g. those generated by was that Member States’ competent authorities
spectroscopy) have to be used for decision- found it difficult to communicate efficiently with
making. The judicial system does not their counterparts in other Member States —
always accept evidence generated by such which is essential in cases where violations have
approaches. cross-border impact.
The Commission decided therefore to
In the EU, Article 8 of the EU General Food activate a dedicated network of administrative
Law7 stipulates that the interests of consumers assistance liaison bodies that would handle
shall be protected by preventing fraudulent or specific requests for cross-border cooperation
deceptive practices misleading the consumer. in cases of ‘food fraud’. The dedicated liaison
In addition, national laws in EU Member States bodies are referred to as Food Fraud Contact
provide various definitions for the violation Points (FFCP). They act, as do all administrative
of statutory agri-food chain requirements. assistance liaison bodies, within the legal
They are qualified by the intention to deceive, framework provided in Title IV of Regulation
and the motive of financial or economic gain, (EC) No 882/2004. The group of FFCPs is
though constitutive elements vary from one collectively referred to as the Food Fraud
national system to the other. In a number of Network (FFN)9.
Member States, those facts may be relevant On 14 January 2014, the European
for the application of criminal penalties and Parliament published a resolution on the
of procedural rules on criminal prosecution. control of fraud in the food chain10, calling
According to a statement by the UK Food on the European Commission to take all
FOOD AND DRINK
CASE STUDY
S
JULIE HESKETH-LAIRD, Deputy Chief Executive of the Scotch Whisky Association
cotch Whisky is a prestigious spirit drink Brand owners may build up unique and
with a global reputation. Sold in around confidential authenticity indictors underpinning
200 markets worldwide, Scotch Whisky the analytical fingerprints of their brands. Fast and
exports are worth around £4 billion reliable field tests have even been developed for
each year. use in market.
The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) works to Our strategy for generic analysis has involved
sustain Scotch Whisky’s place as the world’s leading developing an analytical fingerprint for Scotch
high-quality spirit drink and secure its long-term Whiskies as a whole. This fingerprint can then
growth in the market. be used to show how Scotch Whisky is distinct
Scotch Whisky is protected as a ‘geographical from whiskies of other origins, other distilled spirits
indication’ (GI) to safeguard the industry’s intellectual or cheaper neutral alcohol, each of which may
property and underpin our cultural heritage and contribute to the composition of products falsely
employment. We want consumers to be assured claiming authenticity. 125
that they are getting the best product, traditionally For example, Scotch Whisky must be matured
produced to strict standards. Scotch Whisky’s in oak barrels for at least three years. Maturation
reputation has taken years to build and we are changes the chemical composition of the spirit,
committed to maintaining and building on that. with the lignin in the wood broken down into
That is why a major part of the SWA’s work compounds that can be identified by analysis.
is to safeguard Scotch Whisky against fraud. At Chemical analysis can therefore indicate whether
any one time our legal team has about 70 actions the maturation compounds are consistent with
in courts around the world, and many more aging in oak for at least three years, and identify
investigations under way. Crucial in the fight against flavourings that have been added to mimic the
fakes is the need to determine whether the effects of maturation.
suspected product is consistent with Scotch Whisky. The SWA instructs an independent laboratory
Investigations require forensic support in the set up by the Scotch Whisky industry, the Scotch
form of authenticity analysis of the liquid. As well Whisky Research Institute (SWRI), to analyse
as determining spirit strength and the presence products described as ‘Scotch Whisky’, but
of additives — which are not permitted in Scotch suspected to be fake. We are one of several
Whisky — sophisticated techniques are employed customers of the SWRI, which also assists
to check authenticity. enforcement authorities in the UK and abroad. The
The raw materials and production processes SWRI has access not only to published research
used to produce Scotch Whisky result in a spirit on the analysis of Scotch Whisky, but also has its
with certain chemical characteristics that can be own extensive database on the analysis of Scotch
checked by analysis. This is because the production Whiskies collected over many years. Every year
of genuine Scotch Whisky leads to the presence around 160 suspect ‘whisky’ samples sourced by
of certain components in the finished product. the SWA are tested by SWRI, which also provides
Many of these components will contribute to the expert evidence in legal proceedings in respect of
colour, aroma and taste of scotch. The relative and many of the samples tested.
absolute concentrations of particular components Robust protection of Scotch Whisky requires
allow conclusions to be drawn on how the product robust science, and the Scotch Whisky industry
has been made. has both.
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
Table 1: Top 10 food products that are most at risk of food fraud
OLIVE OIL Extension with other vegetable oils, notably hazelnut oil
Misdescription of geographical origin and olive variety
Misdescription of olive oil quality (refined oil sold as extra virgin oil)
HONEY Extension of honey by sugar syrups obtained from sugar cane, sugar beet, maize, wheat, rice, agave, maple
Misdescription of geographical origin and botanical variety
COFFEE Misdescription of geographical origin and variety (Coffea robusta, Coffea arabica)
Extension with roasted cereals, chicory, figs, caramel, malt
Table 2: Fingerprinting techniques used in food forensics, grouped by type and/or analysis target
EU QUALITY POLICY HAS CREATED more widely applied statistical techniques are
principal component analysis (PCA), linear
QUALITY SCHEMES THAT GRANT discriminant analysis (LDA), soft independent
PROTECTED DESIGNATION OF ORIGIN modelling of class analogy (SIMCA), partial
least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA),
LABELS TO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS and artificial neural networks. Some of the
AND FOODSTUFFS, WHICH ARE statistical routines even allow quantification
of added substances. Chemometrics, which is
PRODUCED, PROCESSED AND PREPARED the use of advanced statistics for the analysis
IN A GIVEN GEOGRAPHICAL AREA of chemical and biological data, has been
developed, refined and applied with success in
USING RECOGNISED KNOW-HOW. academic research related to food forensics.
However, the criminal courts have been slow
to accept its utility for evaluating and weighing
evidence, despite the existence of solid
invaluable for the discrimination of food- knowledge in the field of forensic statistics16.
producing animal and plant species. The power An important quality characteristic of
inherent in DNA analysis has enabled law certain food products or ingredients is
enforcement in difficult cases where certain their geographical origin. EU quality policy
varieties of a given species command different has created quality schemes that grant
prices, or are used for distinguishing quality Protected Designation of Origin labels to
levels. DNA-based assays have been used agricultural products and foodstuffs, which are
to discriminate, for example, Arabica from produced, processed and prepared in a given
128 Robusta coffee beans, mandarin from orange geographical area using recognised know-how.
juice, several meat species, Basmati rice from Verifying that claim is a delicate task, requiring
other long-grain rice, grape varieties used in isotopic ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS)
wine making, and olive cultivars for olive oil analysis of the stable isotopes of light elements
production14. Real-time quantitative polymerase (hydrogen/deuterium, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen,
chain reaction (PCR) based tests are even sulphur), which are related to the region where
able to estimate the amount of the adulterant the products were grown (see Chapter 10
added (e.g. the amount of horsemeat in beef case study p118). Specifically, stable isotope
burgers). The PCR products (amplicons) ratios of hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) in
can further be manipulated and separated produce relate to the environmental water of
by electrophoresis to generate specific the growing region. Isotope effects fractionate
fingerprints, which are of diagnostic value. H and O isotopes through evaporation,
Table 2 gives an overview of fingerprinting condensation and precipitation as they move
techniques used in food forensics15. through the hydrological cycle. These effects
Combinations of techniques exist: the are well understood and have led to the
most widely used combines GLC or HPLC production of isotope landscapes (isoscapes),
with mass spectrometry (MS). In using these allowing investigators to predict the isotopic
techniques, an enormous number of ‘features’ composition of food grown in a particular
(fragments of molecules, which are eluted from region. This gives the forensic scientist a
the chromatographic system at a characteristic powerful tool to check whether a geographical
time) are generated per analysis. Similarly, origin claim is correct.
spectroscopic techniques (where the whole Stable isotope ratios of carbon determined
spectrum is considered) also generate massive by IRMS can discriminate between plants
amounts of data. Only the combination of that use C4 carbon fixation rather than the
data processing by advanced mathematical C3 photosynthetic pathway. This plays an
algorithms and subsequent multivariate important role in determining whether sugar
statistics allows the recognition of patterns or sugar syrups produced by a C4 plant
that are useful for discriminating between (maize and sugar cane) has been added to,
genuine and adulterated products. Among the for example, wine must or fruit juice, without
FOOD AND DRINK
CASE STUDY
I
SUE DAVIES, Chief Policy Adviser, Which?
CASE STUDY
T
PAUL BRERETON, Head of Fera International
INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Traceability is a key element in ascertaining the
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO safety of the food chain, but it is also an important
tool to ensure its integrity.
MEASURE AND INTERPRET Anti-counterfeiting technologies play an
THE MICROBIOME DUE TO important role in ensuring product safety, as well
as authenticity, although the technology only allows
THE DIVERSITY OF MICRO- track-and-trace of the package and not the package
FLORAL POPULATIONS, AND content. Authentication packaging technology
offers many levels of varying sophistication either
THE LIMITATIONS OF THE using overt technology (holograms, security
TOOLS USED TO MEASURE threads, watermarks, colour shifting ink) or covert
technology (UV ink, fluorescence fibres added to
THEM AGAIN. packaging paper, biological or chemical tags such
as DNA printing inks). Synthetic and unique DNA
can be incorporated in packaging material for
strongly by the water in the locality. Further authentication of genuine products that encodes
work is assessing the impact of seasonality product-specific information, which are impossible 131
on the oyster microbiome in the different to forge.
production sites, in order to ensure that the Hyperspectral imaging, which marries
microbiome markers are robust and not spectroscopy to image analysis for providing
affected by the season in which the samples spectral, as well as spatial information, is a powerful
are taken. tool that can be used for rapid non-destructive
quality and authenticity assessment of food,
This approach has many potential particularly meat and spices.
applications in broader areas, such as: Next-generation sequencing (NGS), at least
• Forensics: being able to link an item/person theoretically, makes it possible to identify all species
to a particular location present in a food product. The technique holds
• Food waste (spoilage): using analysis of great promise for identifying pathogens isolated
the microbiome to better understand and from clinical material and food to support trace-
extend shelf life back investigations to identify the source of an
• Microbial epidemiology: using micro-floral outbreak (see case study p130). NGS has the
signatures (including those from non- potential to advance food authenticity testing, but
pathogenic sources) to trace pathogen requires further refinement and development,
outbreaks particularly related to data analysis (bioinformatics),
• Food authenticity: using a food’s microbiome before finding its way into routine laboratory use.
as an authenticity marker or specification Competent authorities and policymakers in the
EU must have access to up-to-date knowledge
related to fraud detection and prevention
technologies, as well as the
relevant databases, to safeguard the integrity of
the food chain. Responding to this need, the JRC is
putting in place dedicated research infrastructures
to provide the European Commission and EU
Member States with the necessary knowledge to
fight food fraud.
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CHAPTER 12
COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS
AND METHODS TO TEST THEM
HARPARKASH KAUR, Pharmaceutical counterfeiting is a global threat that can kill patients, contributes to the
London School of rise of drug resistance, and increases citizens’ mistrust of health systems. To monitor drug
Hygiene and quality, governments and health programs must invest in regulations, technologies, and
Tropical Medicine infrastructure, including anti-counterfeiting measures, specialised analytical facilities run by
T
experienced staff, and portable technologies for screening medicines in the field.
kit from the German Pharma Health Fund A RECENT META-ANALYSIS REPORTED
(GPHF)21 – provides a versatile means for
initial screening of many drug formulations, THAT 35% OF ANTIMALARIAL DRUG
including antimicrobials, antimalarials, and SAMPLES FROM 21 SUB-SAHARAN
antiretrovirals. Currently 713 GPHF-Minilab
units are used globally across 92 countries to AFRICAN COUNTRIES, FAILED
fight the counterfeit drug trade. CHEMICAL CONTENT ANALYSIS.
The Tanzanian Food and Drugs Authority
pilot-tested the Minilab® and found it to be
relatively inexpensive and rapid, but that it
detected only grossly substandard or wrong- affecting the quality of the spectrum. The
drug samples. Ultimately, the Minilab® should TruScan® hand-held Raman device has
be used in conjunction with robust laboratory- successfully detected some counterfeits in
based testing22. This approach was recently the field, but it has not been useful to detect
used to assess the quality of two brands of substandard medicines24.
antibiotics, amoxicillin and co-trimoxazole, Unlike Raman spectroscopy, infrared (IR)
manufactured in six countries and purchased spectroscopy has a larger depth penetration into
in Ghana, Nigeria and Nigeria. All of the the sample surface. Near-infrared spectroscopy
samples of amoxicillin complied with United (NIR) can reveal whether excipients are not
States Pharmacopeia (USP) tolerance limits for in the correct proportions, suggesting that the
dissolution testing, but 60% of co-trimoxazole medicine is counterfeit, but it cannot detect
tablets did not. But there was some disparity substandard medicines25. NIR is also relatively
in the Minilab® results, highlighting that this simple to miniaturise: for example, the SCiO
portable laboratory should not be relied upon NIR device, at present under validation, is a 135
to make regulatory decisions23. smart-phone-sized instrument that promises
to be highly effective at checking the quality
4. Portable instruments of medications in the absence of a MQCL26.
Hand-held devices based on spectroscopic Meanwhile, the US Food and Drug Administration
methods are now being investigated as (FDA) has recently started using its Counterfeit
screening tools that can rapidly detect poor- Detection Device CD-3 to screen tablets,
quality drugs throughout the supply chain packaging and even documents at ports of entry
(see case study p138). Non-destructive or in remote areas, although further development
spectroscopic techniques such as Raman is still needed27.
spectroscopy and near infrared (NIR)
are currently being evaluated for their ability QUALITY OF ANTIMALARIAL DRUGS
to scan drug samples through the blister IN MALARIA-ENDEMIC COUNTRIES
pack, without using the toxic chemicals A recent meta-analysis reported that 35% of
or flammable solvents typically found in a antimalarial drug samples from 21 Sub-Saharan
MQCL. Both techniques rely on comparing African countries, failed chemical content
characteristic spectral ‘fingerprint’ of a analysis28. The underlying research predominantly
suspect medicine with a genuine sample. This used the ‘convenience’ sampling approach, where
necessitates access to a database of spectra, research teams purchased medicines from drug
created by investigators, for every brand of sellers who were easily-accessible, or who were
medications from every manufacturer (see already thought to sell poor-quality medicines.
case study, p140). Results based on this low-cost sampling
One potential drawback of using Raman approach can be useful in drawing attention to
spectroscopy is that only the sample surface is a potential problem. For example, convenience
probed, so if the SAPI is not evenly distributed surveys conducted in South East Asia in 2000/1
throughout the entire tablet, the resulting and 2002/3 suggested that 38% and 53% of
content information may be inaccurate. the artesunate blister packs obtained from
Additionally, many pharmaceutical preparations pharmacies and shops were counterfeit29.
contain highly fluorescent excipients, thus But the convenience approach may not be
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
Table 1: Comparative strengths and weaknesses of the three sampling approaches used
SAMPLING
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
APPROACH
MYSTERY • Use of defined sampling frame • Sample will only be as comprehensive and/or
CLIENTS representative as the sampling frame that was
• Can yield representative sample from all types of
used
outlets and/or brands
• Need to authenticate and update sampling frame
• Low risk of sampling bias in samples collected, as
increases time and cost of survey
outlets are unaware of survey
• Information on sources of poor quality drugs
• Reliability and generalisability of results should be
is limited to brand, batch and country of
strong
manufacture as stated on packaging
• Results can be replicated
136
OVERT • Use of defined sampling frame • Sample will only be as comprehensive and/or
representative as the sampling frame that was
• Can yield representative sample from all types of
used
outlets and/or brands
• Need to authenticate and update sampling frame
• Results can be replicated
increases time and cost of survey
• Can collect additional information at minimal
• Possible risk of sampling bias in samples collected,
additional cost to mystery approach
if some outlets refuse to be sampled or are
aware of which samples might be poor quality
and differentially withhold these
• Reliability and generalisability of results may be
compromised if sampling bias occurs
representative of the places where patients remaining parasites, in the hope that resistance
actually buy their medicines, and it may also be will be slowed enough to allow for the
biased: for example, if the collector consciously development of a pipeline of efficacious drugs.
or subconsciously set out to procure or not Once ACTs had been enforced in malaria-
procure poor-quality formulations (see Table 1)30. endemic countries, it was believed that they
In 2006, the WHO banned malaria would be in danger of being counterfeited.
medicines that contain just one active Hence, the Artemisinin-based Combination
ingredient (such as artesunate), in favour of Therapy Consortium Drug Quality programme
artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) that purchased over 10,000 artemisinin-containing
contain more than one active ingredient. This antimalarials (ACAs) in 6 malaria endemic
treats the disease more rapidly: the artemisinin countries, from private sector retail outlets
component kills the majority of the parasites such as pharmacies and drug shops, following
at the start of the treatment, while the more representative sampling approaches31. Outlets
slowly-eliminated partner drug clears the were selected at random in most countries
COUNTERFEIT PHARMACEUTICALS AND METHODS TO TEST THEM
CASE STUDY
OPERATION PANGEA
O
GIFT MINTA, Senior Criminal Intelligence Analyst, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency
CONCLUSION
Producing counterfeit drugs is an easy
endeavour, requiring only a tablet press, a
printer, commonly-found household materials
and a malevolent mentality. In August 2015,
the US FDA approved for the first time a drug
made using 3D-printing technology32. This
technology is a potential danger in the hands
used in the field. Raman and near infra-red of counterfeiters. Enormous effort is spent
spectroscopy have helped to the increase in determining the most efficacious drug for
the volume of illicit medicine seizures treating a disease, and supporting its use in
since they were first used at the Coventry nationwide programs. It is essential that the
International Hub in Operation Pangea IV. quality of these drugs is monitored to maintain
When Raman equipment was used at the good quality, not least to avoid the development
Heathrow Worldwide Distribution Centre of drug resistance caused by falsified and
(HWDC) in Operation Pangea VIII, it substandard medicines.
resulted in the interception of approximately We need greater investment in developing
20,000 doses of unlabelled or unmarked and validating portable technologies that can be
tablets, which contained medicinal and used in the field, to ensure good-quality drugs
controlled substances indicated for weight reach the patient. The techniques mentioned in
loss, anxiety and hormone therapy. this article can be used to determine the quality
It is clear that Operation Pangea has been of drugs, but are not available in the majority of
a significant success story, and demonstrates resource-constrained countries. Hence, there are
the importance of working in partnership, few data to inform policy or interventions. 139
evidenced by the high volume of seizures We need more research funding to uncover
during the weeks of activities at the ports. the extent of the counterfeiting problem; to
But criminals continue to evolve their evaluate appropriate methods for drug-quality
methods: recent seizures of unlicensed assessment; and to estimate the impact of poor-
medicines by the MHRA Enforcement quality drugs used to treat various diseases.
Group indicate that consignments were In addition, better collaboration between
not imported via the known ports of entry academic researchers, the Pharmaceutical
and modes of transport. It is assumed industry, medicine regulatory authorities and
that criminals involved in this illicit trade law enforcement agencies will greatly help to
have turned to alternative fast parcel and ensure that the vulnerable are protected from
courier companies to avoid detection, which poor-quality medicines. Enhanced regulation
emphasises the importance of effective and quality assurance of genuine manufacturers
working relationships with the industry and would also help reduce the problems of
Border Force. substandard and falsified medicines.
Sensitive and specialised chemical techniques
(HPLC, dissolution testing, LC-MS, NMR and
MS), operated by experienced staff, are needed
in bio-analytical laboratories in disease-endemic
countries, so that they can be utilised relatively
quickly determine the quality of drugs to treat
fatal diseases.
Both national and international programs
must take steps to ensure that they use quality-
assured drugs in their effort to eliminate diseases
such as malaria and visceral leishmaniasis. As
more people travel around the world, there is an
urgent need to ensure that medicines available
globally are of good quality.
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CASE STUDY
THE COUNTERFEITING OF
HEALTHCARE PRODUCTS
T
DAVID A TAINSH, Chief Product Quality Officer, NISHA MISTRY, Senior Investigator (R&D), GlaxoSmithKline
1,200
Authentic
Genuine
07100071
1,000
1
800
Intensity (cnt)
600
2
4000.0 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 650.0
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CHAPTER 13
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
MELISSA DRING, Over the past 15 years, product counterfeiting has become one of the most prolific areas
ROBYN ELLISON of economic crime, enabled by the rapid growth of the internet. Investment in forensic
Director of Policy, analysis techniques and capability, as well as advanced anti-counterfeiting measures, is es-
and Policy Officer, sential to tackle this criminal threat – but it could also stimulate significant growth within
Chartered Trading genuine markets.
T
Standards Institute
he production and sale of internet to peddle their fakes. In fact, the OECD
counterfeit consumer goods accurately predicted that the Internet would:
damages both producers and • Make it easier for counterfeiters to conceal
consumers. It deprives our their true identities and lower the risk of
creators, inventors, artists and designers of detection
their just rewards; and means that consumers • Enable counterfeiters to establish enticing sales
spend money on fraudulent, sub-standard goods, sites and then quickly take them down or move
while exposing themselves to the potential to markets where enforcement is perceived to
harm caused by a disregard for safety standards be weaker
in counterfeit products. It also denies the • Provide opportunities for criminals to develop
government much needed tax revenue to fund vast numbers of illicit e-commerce sites and
essential public services. listings and make it very difficult to find and
142 In addition, Interpol and Europol have outlined take action against them
a clear connection between the trafficking of • Allow sellers to reach a huge global audience at
counterfeit goods and other types of organised low cost, 24 hours a day
crime1, with the profits from counterfeit products • Make software and images widely available to
being channelled into areas such as the trafficking make it easy for counterfeiters to create ‘clone’
of drugs and people, and related financial crimes websites, which look identical to legitimate
such as money laundering and corruption. online stores and sales platforms.
Over the past 15 years, product counterfeiting
has become one of the most prolific areas The OECD’s forecasts have largely proved to
of economic crime. As far back as 2009, the be true. Online shopping has snowballed, and
Organisation for Economic Co-operation the opportunity to buy and sell almost every
and Development (OECD) reported that conceivable type of product has burgeoned
global trade in fake goods was as high as $250 beyond anticipation. In the UK alone, it is
billion2. This amount was described as being predicted that online retail sales will reach over
larger than the national GDPs of approximately £52 billion in 2015 (ref. 3). This is over 15% of
150 economies. However, despite efforts by all retail sales made in the UK and means that, on
organisations such as the OECD, it is still not average, UK consumers will spend £1,174 online
possible to calculate the true scope, scale and in 2015, making us the most regular internet
impact of the problem. This makes it extremely shoppers in Europe.
difficult to influence enforcement agendas and Unfortunately, as the OECD also predicted,
key decision makers, and to focus resources legitimate traders have not been the only
correctly in order to take appropriate and ones to recognise the value and opportunities
decisive action. of e-commerce. Through the internet,
counterfeiters are now able to engage with
THE INTERNET EFFECT consumers directly and deliver millions of
As part of its study, the OECD highlighted why imitation products directly to their homes.
the situation was likely to worsen. It envisaged European Commission statistics back this
that a major threat would be the potential up. Its latest report on the subject, produced
for counterfeiters to increase the use of the in 2014, highlights the fact that over 35 million
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
CASE STUDY
E
MELISSA DRING, ROBYN ELLISON, Director of Policy and Policy Officer, Chartered Trading Standards Institute
nforcement and regulation can be April and December 2014, a staggering 1.9 million
incredibly challenging in this ever- non-compliant or unsafe goods were intercepted
evolving environment. Indeed, reflecting at UK ports through the ports project. Of those,
on the local authority model, it is clear over 670,000 were faulty or non-compliant
that the current structure of Trading Standards cosmetic products2.
services hampers enforcement in this specific area. Despite the successes of the project, it is
As discussed in this chapter, the manufacture and clear that these efforts are only really addressing
distribution of counterfeit goods has resulted in a the tip of the iceberg in terms of the types of
surge of large-scale criminal operations that cross dangerous consumer products entering the UK.
borders at both national and local authority levels. The patchwork of coverage provided by local
In recent years,Trading Standards services, as authority Trading Standards services remains of
with other local authority services, have adapted concern in terms of tackling locally-based online
in the face of austerity. On average, staff numbers sellers, who can easily move their operations 143
have dropped by 40% and budgets by 50% (ref. 1). from one locality to another in order to evade
However as the primary enforcement agency detection.
tasked with tackling the import and distribution Furthermore, for those Trading Standards
of dangerous counterfeit goods, Trading Standards and border agencies involved in the ports
services also have responsibility for the legislative project, it is clear that they are unable to open
enforcement of a diverse array of other consumer every container and intercept every potentially
protection issues, including underage sales, tackling dangerous import. Thus for the tens of thousands
rogue traders, combatting scams, animal health of products that are successfully intercepted and
issues and weights and measures. Some Trading seized by the team, there are many thousands
Standards services currently operate with just more that make it onto market stalls, into shops
one part-time member of staff, yet they must and directly through the doors of UK consumers.
still attempt to enforce all statutory legislation Technological advances that would enable
assigned to Trading Standards. Unfortunately, in automated verification of certain types of goods
this climate of diminishing resources and increased at UK borders would go a long way in helping to
legislative burdens, many individual Trading tackle the stream of counterfeit goods entering
Standards services are struggling to cope with the UK, especially during out-of-hours periods
tackling this large-scale cross-border crime. when Trading Standards inspectors are unavailable
In an attempt to address this issue, National to monitor imports.
Trading Standards has begun work to organise a Furthermore, outside of the work directly
more coordinated effort to tackle the distribution conducted at UK ports in tackling dangerous
of dangerous consumer goods with their Safety at counterfeits, advances in forensics that would
Ports and Borders project. The team works with make it easier and more cost-effective for Trading
14 local authority services across ports, airports Standards officers to test products that are
and postal hubs to intercept and detain unsafe manufactured and dispatched primarily within the
or illegal counterfeit consumer products. They UK would also enable quicker and more effective
also act as a single point of contact for border enforcement to tackle these issues at home.
authorities, and utilise an intelligence-led approach
to prioritise their resources effectively. Between
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
Table 1: Consumer products, potential safety concerns, and analytical techniques used in investigations
Food products: presence of toxins, permitted and not Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (LCMS)
permitted colours and additives, sugar content and nutritional
value Analysis using chemical reagents
145
Cosmetics: prohibited substances such as lead, mercury, Atomic Absorption Spectrometry
hydroquinone or phenol; restricted substance such as CVAFS
hydrogen peroxide or p-phenylenediamine (PPD); and levels
of permitted preservatives such as benzoic acid, sorbic acid, HPLC
phenoxyethanol and parabens Titration
availability of forensic data would help to define To ensure the authenticity of traded goods
the scope and methods of illicit goods trading in the UK, the local authority Trading Standards
in the UK, and focus the appropriate amount of services work in collaboration with the public
resources to stop illegal trade. In other words, analyst laboratories. Public Analysts provide
enforcement needs to be reshaped to change scientific and calibration services ensuring
perceptions and understanding, rather than product safety and compliance with all relevant
solely being aimed at wiping out the availability UK legislation. In doing so, they use a variety
of fake goods. of forensic techniques to both protect the
This strategy requires forensic analysis built consumer from harm and support enforcement
on robust statistics and certified measurement services, particularly Trading Standards Officers.
methods, and has enormous potential to Examples of forensic techniques used
strengthen the value of genuine goods. This in to identify and investigate issues relating to
turn ensures real financial advantages to the consumer products are detailed in Table 1.
manufacturing economy, on a huge scale: the sale
of counterfeit goods has a serious detrimental FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
effect on the economy, with a projected cost of An important growth area in the forensic
thousands of jobs. This forensics-based approach analysis of consumer goods involves putting
would also inspire consumer confidence, the process of authenticity verification in the
and enable secure supply chains that result in hands of consumers, rather than relying on a
economic growth with an increase in employment. governmental body to validate genuine goods
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CASE STUDY
CONSUMER PROTECTION
AND SOCIAL MEDIA
T
MIKE ANDREWS, National Trading Standards eCrime Team
CASE STUDY
P
JESSI BAKER, CEO of Project Provenance Ltd
The authors would like to thank Kent Scientific Services and The
Anti-Counterfeiting Group for their assistance with the research for
this chapter.
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
CHAPTER 14
ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS
IAN L. BOYD We breathe, eat and drink other people’s pollution. Yet it has proved difficult to
Chief Scientific design market solutions to deal with this equitably, so that the individuals who cause
Adviser, Defra environmental degradation carry the costs of those actions. To promote good
environmental outcomes, micro-innovation in measuring environmental variables needs to
F
be matched by macro-economic innovation to build market-based solutions.
CASE STUDY
S
PETER BROTHERTON, Director of Specialist Services and Programmes, Natural England
ome wildlife species are hard to find. £1000 per pond1. Natural England was quick to
When elusive creatures are also in approve the new technique, and industry was
decline and strictly protected under quick to respond. Over 2500 eDNA tests were
European law, difficulties in detecting carried out in 2015, suggesting that businesses
them can be problematic for conservationists are likely to have saved over £2 million in survey
and businesses alike. One such species is the costs this year alone thanks to the introduction
great crested newt (Triturus cristatus), our most of the eDNA test; time-related savings are likely
charismatic amphibian. Great crested newts to be even more significant. A growing number
have declined across Europe due to losses of of laboratories are also coming forward to offer
their ponds and other habitats, but they are still the test.
widespread and locally common in some parts Innovation feeds innovation. Our ability to
of the UK. As a European Protected Species, it is more easily detect great crested newts has
152 an offence to kill, injure or disturb great crested made it possible to engage the public in the first
newts or damage their habitat. To avoid com- national survey of the species, begun in 2015.
mitting an offence, businesses are required to Even more significantly, Natural England is now
assess whether they are present in any suitable working with local authorities to use eDNA to
ponds likely to be impacted by a development. develop a detailed understanding of local great
Traditionally, this assessment has been a skilled crested newt populations. This information will
and time-consuming process: each pond re- enable the piloting of a new, strategic approach
quiring at least four night-time visits during the to the conservation of the species across
breeding period by licensed surveyors who use planning authority areas, doing more to protect
three separate survey methods to search for the and enhance the most important locations
newts. The complexity of this traditional survey for the species, while making it easier for
technique imposes significant costs and delays development to proceed in other, less significant
on developers, while also making it hard to plan great crested newt areas. This transformative
their effective conservation. approach will see a shift in the emphasis of
In 2013, Natural England and the Natural England’s licensing decisions towards
Department for Environment, Food and achieving better conservation outcomes for
Rural Affairs (Defra) supported research to newt populations as a whole instead of seeking
investigate whether emerging environmental to protect newts in locations that are unlikely to
DNA (eDNA) techniques could offer a solution be viable in the long-term. This is good news for
to the problem of surveying for great crested business and good news for newts.
newts. eDNA is nuclear or mitochondrial As DNA detection techniques become more
DNA that is released from an organism into its advanced, we can expect to see a rapid growth
environment, and initial proof of concept studies in wildlife applications, from early detection
had demonstrated that its detection could of invasive species and diseases through to
be an effective survey technique in aquatic understanding soil communities. The innovations
environments. The government-funded study we are achieving with great crested newts are
conclusively showed that eDNA surveys were only the start of this story.
at least as effective as the traditional technique,
while also providing estimated savings of up to
ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS
Whether these actually reflect meaningful commonly used today. This doctrine suggests that
outcomes varies with circumstances, but in any changes caused by human presence must be
many cases the connection between these avoided, even if (as in this case) the changes most
and the values placed on the environment probably lie within the normal range of natural
by society are tenuous. These values are variability.
themselves inconsistent and therefore difficult Seen in this context, the direction of travel in
to compare; and, where conflict arises, it environmental forensics – towards measuring
becomes impossible to provide an objective and controlling more and more, at finer and finer
assessment of where priorities should lie. levels of detail, just in case it might be important
The implicit claim made of these variables in future – is clearly untenable.
is that they are surrogates for valuation, but This is the practical consequence of the
this sometimes lacks credibility. For example, ‘Precautionary Principle’, stimulated by a systemic
‘waste recycling’ is a measurement that has pessimism about the ways in which innovation
been treated as an end in itself, rather than can imperceptibly draw down environmental
one possible route to reduce residual waste capital without paying a proper cost, but without
and improve resource extraction. Focus on this also recognising that innovation has a double
measurement is potentially distorting action edge because it is both a threat and a solution.
away from reducing our use of resources and The need for the measurement or monitoring
reusing ‘waste’, both of which are the real of environmental indicators through time was
objectives. initially driven by a sincere search for those
Consequently, the UK is mandated to surrogate indicators within the environment that
measure an immense amount of information most effectively represented societal valuation.
about everything from the chemistry of rivers But this has gradually mutated into a process of
to the number of birds on farmland and the measurement and reporting of data as an end in 153
noise emitted by human activity in the ocean. itself, which supports the doctrine of designed
Efforts to focus attention on the features that resilience, often closely associated with the
genuinely inform us about the health of the doctrine of hazard avoidance. Both are hungrier
environment have been hampered by a lack of for evidence showing compliance to potentially
underlying knowledge about their impacts. For flawed standards than they are for evidence to
example, we know almost nothing about the improve the basis upon which those standards
consequences of man-made noise in the ocean, are designed. Across Europe, feeding the resulting
but we have created binding commitments to appetite for environmental data is now an
measure noise within certain sound frequency industrial-scale process requiring governments to
ranges – without even knowing whether those establish bodies like the UK’s Environment Agency,
frequency ranges are important, or what the which also has regulatory powers. At European
dose-response might be. In this particular scale, coordination and thought leadership is in the
case, we do not even know how the response hands of the European Environment Agency, while
might manifest itself, whether in fish, marine regulation sits with the European Commission.
mammals, plankton, corals, jellyfish, or seaweed. The data are used to prosecute the miscreants – a
Noise could affect any or none of these species, process known within the European structure as
and there is even uncertainty about whether ‘infraction’ – and to produce reports intended to
we need to study populations or individuals illuminate the state of the environment4. Some, like
in this context. The rationale for actions like the volume ‘Late Lessons from Early Warnings’5,
this hinges on the hazard-avoidance doctrine seemed intentionally designed to magnify the
negative consequences of not adopting the more likely to achieve a culture of deterrence
doctrines of hazard avoidance and designed and build a sense of devolved responsibility than
resilience. the former, where there are few incentives for
individuals to take responsibility for their own
PREVENTION VERSUS DETECTION actions. Developing countries would be well
Functional environmental forensics can perhaps placed to benefit from such an analysis when
be seen to bifurcate along two interacting contemplating how to design their own systems
tracks. One track involves detecting and of compliance with environmental standards.
correcting incidents where an agreed standard A potential strength of the doctrine of
has been exceeded (detection); the other designed resilience and investment in prevention
uses feedback from forensic measurements to is the prospect it provides for progressive
change behaviours within society, thus reducing improvement of environmental quality. Ramping
the probability of exceedance in the first place up the thresholds of compliance over time
154 (prevention). has been critical to achieving reductions in
Detection is usually linked with operational residual waste, improved beach water quality
management to support trade regulations and and reduced vehicle emissions. This can only
protect human health, for example. Prevention be achieved against a background of effective
concerns long-term objectives that seek measurement using standardised methods.
progressive environmental improvement, or One example of the aggregated progress
attempt to prevent the slide towards declining enabled by this approach can be found in
baselines of environmental quality, a process improvements in air quality (see Figure 1).
that has been suggested to have happened for Although the speed of change in this and other
marine fish populations. cases is slower than many would wish for, the
Prevention is often seen to be the most rate of change is probably proportional to
cost-effective option; the very high costs of the rate of evolution of the delivery process.
environmental remediation often mean that This, in turn, is a complex function of several
investments in prevention are likely to be rate-limiting processes, including the rate
worthwhile. Consequently, the considerable of innovation in technology and business
infrastructure that has emerged to support systems; depreciation and obsolescence of
prevention within Europe probably has a strong past investments; and the discounting applied
economic rationale, although this has not, as to the future benefits derived from current
far as I am aware, been tested adequately investments. However, none of these would
against any counterfactual. The current range operate effectively unless there was a system
of different infrastructure and bureaucratic for setting evidence-based standards, and the
solutions applied to environmental regulation field of environmental forensics provides this
across the developed world provides an foundation.
opportunity to build a better understanding of
the relative merits of investment in detection WHAT SHOULD BE MEASURED?
and prevention. It is a moot point whether The environment is a complex place, with
prevention is always more effective than a many variables that could be measured to
combination of risk-based detection and assess compliance, control outcomes and adapt
proportionately large penalties. The latter is to emerging challenges. Environmental data
ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS
Figure 1: Annual emissions of major air pollutants relative to levels in 1970 (ref. 1). Solid lines show the measured relative
emissions. The introduction of measured standards and targets has been an important factor in achieving improvements in
air quality.
140
120
100
Index Line
Ammonia (1980=100)
Index (1970=100)
Ammonia
80
Non-methane
volitile organic
60 compounds
Nitrogen
Oxides
40
PM10
PM2.5
20
Sulphur Dioxide
0 155
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
are becoming increasingly accessible through carcinogenic. Because we can now measure
automated measurement and new sensors. glyphosate in food and other environmental
The ability to report measurements in real products to extraordinary precision, it follows
time, and at a reduced cost, is making some that we are increasingly aware of its presence
data more accessible, helping decision-making at very low doses. However, this does not
at all levels of society and moving us towards equate to the presence of a pharmacologically
the goal of ensuring that people have the important dose, and this point is often ignored
information they need to make decisions based by those making these kinds of claims.
on the costs of their actions. Increasing volume, The DPSIR (driver, pressure, state, impact,
accessibility and precision of measurements response) framework has provided a further
presents challenges to this goal, because data guide to the construction of environmental
are not equivalent to information for those measurement and the application of regulation.
without the expertise to interpret the data. DPSIR captures the concept of cause-effect,
Greater precision means that dose can be which is probably not sufficiently central to
measured to phenomenally low levels, but that thinking within the field of environmental
precision is not necessarily matched by the forensics. In principle, it is better to regulate the
same level of understanding of dose-response driver that creates an environmental pressure,
at these low levels.
The doctrine of hazard avoidance tends
to perpetuate and amplify ignorance of DNA IN THE WIDER ENVIRONMENT
the importance of dose. For example, it is CAN PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF THE
attractive to some environmental pressure
groups to play strongly on the recent PRESENCE OF KEY CRYPTIC SPECIES AT
assessments concluding that glyphosate, A SMALL FRACTION OF THE COST.
a commonly used herbicide, is probably
FORENSIC SCIENCE: BEYOND THE COURT
158
SECTION 4:
SECURING THE FUTURE OF
UK FORENSIC SCIENCE
SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE
160
5 billion
internet users and up to
could be developed that
connect smartphones to the
authorised user through
100 billion
connected devices worldwide.
digital biometrics. This could
be used to investigate
criminal activity.
In the future, we may be able to
identify a person’s activity or where
they have been by studying microbial
communities in their bodies, known
as the ‘microbiome’.
Advances in technology
that allow the human
genome to be mapped
in hours rather than
weeks will accelerate
The high cost and judicial the availability of
impact of failing to meet genetic information.
standards means forensic
techniques must be
validated and backed by 161
a strong evidence base
before being used.
Miniaturisation and
innovations such as
RapidHIT DNA or
paraDNA will bring
conventional laboratory
techniques closer to
crime scenes and speed
up the identification of
offenders.
CHAPTER 15
FUTURE APPROACHES IN
ANALYTICAL SCIENCES
By 2025, forensic science will be transformed by large-scale data analysis, automation, novel analytical techniques,
and digital forensics. The UK has the potential to be at the forefront of these developments if basic science,
commercial technology development and government policy can be better coordinated.
L
Services,Yorkshire and the Humber Head of Sciences, National Crime Agency
ooking ahead to 2025, what are the • Admissibility: If the technique is to be used for
new technologies that are likely to purposes other than investigation, it needs to be
impact upon forensic science and its legally admissible within the rules of evidence
162 ability to keep pace with – or ahead • Affordability: While this should not be a barrier to
of – new forms of criminal activity? What is the delivering safe and secure justice, the cost of the
best way to manage that innovation? And how technique relative to the challenge it is meeting
can UK businesses benefit from innovations in is an important factor (you would not expect
forensic techniques? This chapter will address these expensive analytical time to be used for low-level
questions by considering the following points: minor crime, for example).
• The future technological trends that will help to
tackle criminal threats, and the changing face of Perhaps the largest transformation in forensic
crime, out to 2025 science over recent years has been the reduction
• The new sciences that might be relevant in the costs of analytical services. This has been
• The use of a wide range of digital traces to delivered through a blend of more effective
determine who is where, and when procurement and advances in automation and
• The challenges presented by new technologies, miniaturisation, as well as a much sharper focus on
and whether there is a point at which advances the needs of the end user. In this environment, this
in science become counter-productive trend will need to continue to provide comparable
• Automation of forensics and the wider legal services that are affordable, as well as developing
system, along with the impacts of managing large opportunities to be more effective and innovative
volumes of data in the way forensic science can be utilised as a
tool for public safety. There is a significant risk that
There are also several critical factors that we the drive to reduce costs will impact on future
need to consider when emerging technologies or capability, with limited investment in research and
sciences present opportunities to enhance public development activities. Short-term cuts in forensic
safety. These are: research and development will inevitably lead
• Credibility: Is the proposed method a credible to longer-term problems. The community and
technique that can be validated for use in the government should be considering the end-to-end
context of a legal arena, both criminal and civil? process of forensic techniques and the associated
• Accessibility: In order for the technique to be investments required to ensure that there is a
used, it should be accessible to legal professionals sustainable research and development capability.
from both a prosecuting and defence basis The UK has had a long-standing international
FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES
The analysis of data as a science is becoming and provide the potential for 24-hour operating.
more evident in government initiatives such as While robotics will not replace humans, in the
the Data Science in Government programme, future they have the potential to make processes
which emphasises the importance of a structured more efficient and effective.
approach and wider involvement of those outside
the traditional forensic communities. As the NEW SCIENCES RELEVANT TO
volumes of data increase, our understanding of FORENSICS
the complexities needs to grow concurrently. The In many cases, forensics sciences can be regarded
potential for poor analysis of large data sets to be as an applied use of a traditional scientific discipline.
masked by computer analytics can be mitigated by The use of DNA in investigations, for example, is
fostering the right blend of skills in those developing taken from conventional biology techniques but with
and performing the analysis. a different application. James Watson and Francis
There is an increasing trend for miniaturisation Crick first described the double helix structure of
of technology that will allow law enforcement DNA in 1953, and the discoveries that followed
and other users to bring conventional large-scale were applied in many disciplines before DNA
laboratory techniques closer to the scene of analysis was first used in a law enforcement context
crime. Examples that are being developed include in 1984.
rapid DNA units that provide one-stop analysis of It is therefore commonplace that the forensic
samples at the scene in less than two hours and world will utilise advances in other areas, because
portable hand held GCMS (gas chromatography- the level of research and development investment
mass spectrometry) equipment for rapid analysis in medicine, defence and food is far greater than
of drugs. These will evolve into more portable in forensic science. Advances in synthetic biology
integrated units that deliver real time information may speed up the process and offer new methods
164 to investigations through immediate on-site analysis of working that are far more efficient than current
linked remotely to databases that autonomously techniques. It may also complicate the analysis
identify people and materials. Improvements in through the introduction of manufactured genetic
energy sources beyond conventional lithium ion material. The challenge is to ensure that the
batteries will enable extended usage without the forensic world reacts to these developments in a far
need to connect to mains supplies. quicker and coordinated manner to maximise the
Advances in robotics offer a range of opportunities they present.
opportunities, including carrying out hazardous In a forensic context, current DNA technology
tasks and thereby reducing the risk of harm to is very effective at determining the probability of
human operators. Examples of this could be the two samples originating from the same source, by
initial assessment of chemical, biological, radiological, comparing a set of common genetic markers.We
nuclear and explosive (CBRNE) incidents using are pushing the boundaries of sensitivity to the point
intelligent robotic ground-based or aerial units with where background information is starting to interfere,
a sensor array that detects a range of hazardous creating complex mixtures that are uninterpretable.
materials and relays analytical information in Although UK forensic standards focus on seventeen
real time back to incident controllers. Other markers, there are around 23,000 genes within the
applications are the expansion of robotics in human genome that we largely ignore. The use of
laboratory and process functions, to automate tasks phenotypic profiling – studying the traits that result
from the expression of genes – is understood in
other sectors, and forensics should harness this
WE ARE PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES to allow the determination of information such
OF SENSITIVITY TO THE POINT WHERE as physical characteristics, susceptibility to medical
conditions and perhaps even behaviours.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION IS Advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS)
STARTING TO INTERFERE, CREATING technology currently produce information at a
greater rate than the computer processing can
COMPLEX MIXTURES THAT ARE deal with, so there will be a need in the future to
UNINTERPRETABLE. develop a means of processing large amounts of bio-
informatics data. The advances in technology that
FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES
CASE STUDY
T
ANYA HUNT, CEO, The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences
results that are not subject to any form of cognitive THE FIRST USE OF DNA IN A FORENSIC
bias that may influence the decision making process.
The use of robotics and automation of CONTEXT IN 1984 REVOLUTIONISED THE
hazardous processes will enable a far safer working WAY THAT CRIME WAS INVESTIGATED,
environment to be developed. The de-risking
of activities deemed too dangerous for human AND HAS PROVED TO BE A MAINSTREAM
intervention will mean that hazardous crime-scenes TECHNIQUE WITH THE FORMATION OF
– which may not be fully examined today – could
in the future be subject to the same recovery of A NATIONAL DATABASE.
evidence afforded to less hazardous scenes.
One of the areas requiring automation is the
management of large volumes of data that cannot
be effectively processes using current capabilities. As boundaries of sensitivity have been stretched to
we recover and produce greater volumes of data, the point where it becomes increasingly difficult
grid computing will become an important way to to separate the sample from the background
manage this information. mixture. There needs to be careful consideration
that further sensitivity, in its current form, will need
CHALLENGES: NEW TECHNOLOGY advanced analytical software to interpret the
AND SCIENCES complex information present in a sample to ensure
Emerging technologies and approaches to applying that DNA profiling not become counter-productive.
scientific methods in forensic disciplines clearly offer
great opportunities, but they also bring challenges. CONCLUSION
The application of new scientific methods to any The UK has a vibrant science base that has
illicit activity will require the courts to accept these generated many advances in science across 169
methods. This will involve a full validation and a range of sectors. It is clear that there is
accreditation process to provide reassurance to significant opportunity to consider where there
the courts that the technique is fit for purpose and is transferrable science that can be applied in a
sufficiently reliable to, in extreme cases, take away forensic context: for example, the medical and
a person’s liberty for many years. It is therefore agriscience fields are already very advanced in their
essential that the technique is safe, secure and use of Next Generation Sequencing, which the
reliable. The evidence threshold for civil courts is forensic community could learn from. There needs
lower, but the science should still be valid if it is to to be a mechanism that enables the identification
be used. of transferrable science. This could be through
The first real breakthrough in applying science to virtual networks of academic institutions or the
criminal investigations came in the late 19th century, formation of a dedicated research institute across
when fingerprints were used to investigate crime existing capability that considers both digital and
on the basis of their uniqueness. This has been traditional forensic future requirements.
accepted over the years as a primary identifier, and In terms of the functional challenges, any
in the UK we identify roughly 50,000 offenders from significant innovation in forensic science will
crime scenes each year using fingerprints. be disruptive to a certain extent. The key is to
The first use of DNA in a forensic context in consider the benefits against the disruption, and
1984 revolutionised the way that crime was only then can the decision be made. Any innovation
investigated, and has proved to be a mainstream needs to be cost effective in its application, and
technique with the formation of a national database. while early adopters of innovation may pave the
This required a step change in our approach, which way for others, this can be done in a controlled
disrupted business processes, infrastructure manner through structured coordination. This will
requirements, cultural acceptance as well as identify all the issues such as affordability, regulatory
significantly changing the operating model for forensic constraints, and future-proofing workflow impact,
science. But it has brought significant benefits to as well as the wider societal impact such as public
public safety, and there are 25,000 DNA matches acceptance and privacy concerns.
between crime scenes and offenders each year. The relevant professional community will
We are, however, now at a point where the scrutinise any new innovation to critically review
SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE
CASE STUDY
FORENSICS AND
THE INTERNET OF THINGS
T
ALASTAIR COOK, Director of Critical Insight Security Ltd
he Internet of Things (IoT) mobile had charge in its battery, but had been
increasingly connects people remotely wiped by an unknown person using
and services to a plethora an app that was supplied with the phone’s
of wireless-enabled devices, operating system (see Figure 1).
presenting opportunities for both investigators To enable a productive digital forensic analysis,
and criminals. Appropriate treatment and use of investigators need a high-integrity method
data generated by IoT devices could yield crucial to obtain, store, share and analyse the data
leads in a complex investigation, and in some associated with these devices, so that they can
circumstances it could be the primary source of use this knowledge to infer the sequence of
evidence. events that led to the crime. These methods
Consider a scenario where three murder could include:
victims are found in a park, with signs of a
170 struggle plus a number of items left by at least 1 A trusted framework that allows the data to
one other party at the scene. Although some be imported and preserved in its original form,
mobile phones were present at the scene, one while also enabling a team of investigators
has been intentionally smashed. The second with varying technical skills to interact with it.
Victim B
• Connected
heart-rate monitor Victim C
Victim A
• Unknown worn & • Smar t watch, Brand M,
• High-fidelity fitness implanted paired GPS enabled
device on wrist, Brand X medical devices • Security key worn
• Mobile phone • Embedded devices on finger of the right hand
smashed at scene in trainers • No mobile
• No mobile
Jacket
Holdall • Wearable device
embedded in collar
• Embedded device for
security and identification • Not activated
• Evidence of tampering • Smar tphone in pocket
with device with 20% battery remaining
FUTURE APPROACHES IN ANALYTICAL SCIENCES
As some of the data may not be immediately “The team found that the 3 victims regularly
available – it might be stored in public or shared the same running route. On the day
private clouds, for example – this environment of the crime they exhibited elevated signs of
must be ‘live’, so that diverse sources of data stress and changed their route 16 minutes into
relevant to the investigation can be imported the run. There were indicators of a physically
as they become available. intense struggle for the last 3 minutes of the run.
A security device on the hand of one victim was
2 At the point of import, any relationships in linked to a car that was infrequently used by the
the data should be automatically discovered, victim and some other, subsequently identified,
tagged and highlighted to the team. Linked persons linked to the crime. The bag was
Data techniques (which allow semantic procured in Europe, and carried a device that a
analysis by both machines and investigators) non-UK criminal gang used to track the delivery
can be used to generate human and machine- of stolen assets or weapons. The jacket was 171
readable statements about the data and its procured in Antwerp and had been worn in the
context. Using terminology and identifiers that UK for 3 weeks prior to the crime. This allowed
are recognised by the team, as well as open a possible CCTV image of the wearer to be
source or internationally-recognised standards, obtained. It appears that Victim B was followed
would significantly increase the utility of the by the wearer of the jacket for 2 days prior to
data and draw upon global knowledge in a the crime.”
way that is almost impossible with current Such information could routinely enhance
methods. investigations if the three highlighted methods
can be implemented alongside forensic advances
3 Semi-automated identification of appropriate in other domains. This will allow investigators to
analytic techniques could allow niche methods adapt to changes in technology, users’ behaviour
to advance the investigation, or associate and criminals’ tactics at a scale that current
people and places with the devices. This methods cannot achieve. It should also provide
may draw on international data sets or a sound basis for the scientific scrutiny and
online services that have greater statistical investigative integrity that should be expected of
significance, better reference methodologies all areas of forensics.
and more rigorous scrutiny than national
or regional teams would be able to achieve.
Some of these may not be from the forensics
community – they could include online SEMI-AUTOMATED IDENTIFICATION OF
medical or personal fitness services, for APPROPRIATE ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES
example.
COULD ALLOW NICHE METHODS TO
This approach could efficiently yield the ADVANCE THE INVESTIGATION, OR
following summary of assertions that inform an
investigation, and may be of sufficient integrity ASSOCIATE PEOPLE AND PLACES WITH
to identify participants in the crime, or even be THE DEVICES.
admissible in a criminal prosecution:
SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE
CASE STUDY
NEXT-GENERATION
DIGITAL FORENSICS
C
GRAHAM BROMELOW, MCM Solutions
CHAPTER 16
ENCOURAGING INNOVATION
GERAINT MORGAN The UK has a strong track record of innovation in forensic science, and its forensic
The Open University science providers have a close working relationship with the police. Engaging all of the
THOMAS BASSINDALE, partners involved in taking innovations through to market adoption – including academia,
Sheffield Hallam industry, end users and government – gives the UK an opportunity to become a global
University leader in the forensic science market. The government now has an important role to play
MARK PEARSE in helping innovators to bridge the ‘valley of death’ as they seek to turn proof-of-principle
F
LGC techniques into commercial products.
by pilot studies, use on live samples, first CPS and ultimately the innovator. This monetisation
case management and its first test in court. could be through the provision of a service
The codes also detail how the whole process directly to the customer, or more likely through
should be monitored and reviewed. Direct the licensing of the intellectual property to one
communication between scientists and end-users of the leading service providers in the sector.
in the CJS is key to ensuring that innovation is For any innovation to be widely implemented, it
implemented in a timely manner. must either speed up a current methodology or
Other potential end-users of forensic satisfy an unmet need; have limited competition;
science are the military, counter-terrorism and be successfully transferred from the
and intelligence agencies. Their operational controlled environment of the laboratory into
needs are likely to be different from those the real world, where it can be used by non-
of the courts, and therefore a dialogue with experts. The overall cost of implementing the
organisations such as the Defence Science and technology into the forensic workflow will also
Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and the Centre need to be minimised to avoid driving up costs
for Defence Enterprise (CDE) are essential to to the customer.
establish end-user needs and ensure that the It is clear from both case studies in this
innovation will be fit for purpose. Forensic tools chapter that securing funding to move from
can also be used to determine authenticity in the initial research and development phase
areas including clothes, foods or perfumes, which at an academic institution, through to the
require liaison with industry and regulatory development of a commercial product, remains
bodies. difficult (see case studies on p179 and p181).
But the primary customers (and budget Partnerships between academic institutions
holders) for most innovations in forensic science and end-users can help to guide innovations
176 are law enforcement agencies or forensic through this development process. Potential
service providers (FSPs). Increasingly, police innovators – who may be new to the
forces are bringing more forensic services within sector – should be made aware of the
their organisations, blurring the lines between wider global markets, and their high esteem
themselves and FSPs. The main risk for the law for UK forensic science; as well as existing
enforcement agency is that their investment networking opportunities. For example, the
results in a procedure that is not suitable for use Forensic Science Special Interest Group (FoSci
in the Criminal Justice System. Once again, early SIG) is a community that includes everyone
engagement between scientists and the CJS is key. involved in forensic science, and enables
For an FSP, there is an additional risk that closer networking and better communication
their investment in an innovation does not between all stakeholders for improved research
provide a return. That financial return is only and development. FoSci SIG is run by the
possible if the innovation is monetised and Knowledge Transfer Network (KTN) and was
adopted by a sizeable market, with a proportion set up in July 2012 following a recommendation
of the revenue returned to the service provider in June 2011 by the Home Office Chief
Scientific Adviser in his review of ‘Research and
Development in Forensic Science’. FoSci SIG
FOR ANY INNOVATION TO BE WIDELY has an online searchable database of challenges
IMPLEMENTED, IT MUST EITHER SPEED in forensic science, which helps to match key
questions with innovators’ potential solutions2.
UP A CURRENT METHODOLOGY OR
SATISFY AN UNMET NEED; HAVE LIMITED TURNING SCIENCE INTO FORENSIC
SCIENCE
COMPETITION; AND BE SUCCESSFULLY Fundamental ‘blue skies’ research usually
TRANSFERRED FROM THE CONTROLLED takes place in universities with the support
of research council funding. Some of these
ENVIRONMENT OF THE LABORATORY activities will result in capabilities that may be of
INTO THE REAL WORLD. benefit to forensic science. The challenge for
the community is in identifying those projects,
ENCOURAGING INNOVATION
especially when the innovation is initially applied funding from agencies such as Innovate UK. The
in a different discipline. Network+ schemes being organised by the
If the project is more applied, then the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
academic researchers need to have a clear and the Engineering and Physical Sciences
understanding of the realities of the end-user Research Council (EPSRC) provide such funding,
needs and environment, which can only be but the field also needs a forensic science
gained through interaction with an end-user, and champion for these schemes, with a proven
ideally with the wider stakeholder community. track record of engaging with the other key
Increasingly, the importance of applied research stakeholders in the sector.
is being acknowledged within universities and the Any intellectual property generated by this
research councils. All research council proposals research could be exploited in two ways. It could
must demonstrate ‘Pathways to Impact’, including be licensed to an FSP or commercial organisation,
how researchers will communicate, engage and which would then develop the product and take it
collaborate with stakeholders and potential to market, eventually providing a revenue stream
beneficiaries of the research. to the university. Alternatively, the academics
There is also a growing expectation within involved could form a spin-out company to further 177
universities that research should be translated, develop their value proposition, with a view
with any revenue generated being returned to either providing a service directly or exiting
to the university. This strategy is further through a trade sale.
encouraged through the Quality Related- Very few academics choose the latter
Business Research Element (QR-BRE) funding option. But those who do take this brave
from the Higher Education Funding Councils of step need financial support and mentoring.
both England and Wales, and by the fact that Incubation centres such as the STFC/European
an assessment of impact now makes up 20% Space Agency Business Incubation Centre in
of the Research Excellence Framework, and Harwell, and the associated funding available
therefore directly influences future mainstream from Innovate UK through the Harwell Space
Quality Related (QR) research funding in all UK Launchpads, offer an excellent model of how
universities. start-up companies can develop if they have
However, it should also be acknowledged a funding roadmap to facilitate growth and to
that the current requirement for an academic support it in securing investment capital.
to achieve traditional ‘outputs’ for their research The Security Innovation and Demonstration
(80% weighting) is also a barrier to investing Centre (SIDC)3, launched by the Home Office in
time in activities such as validation, which may 2014, could provide another important incubation
not be publishable in peer-reviewed journals facility for forensic science. As an open innovation
but is crucial for the end-stage of adoption of a centre focused on security challenges, it will
technology. enable innovators to access end users and their
To help these applied projects, it is important environments for rapid real-world evaluation
that the sector establishes and supports of new concepts, using a shared laboratory and
events that actively engage all stakeholders and demonstration space hosted at the Home Office’s
generate opportunities for networking; offers Centre for Applied Science & Technology (CAST).
funding for proof-of-principle studies and/or staff The SIDC aims to support start-ups through
exchanges; and provides commercial training on links to mentors and investors, thereby de-risking
how to develop an initial idea into a business the introduction of new technologies. It will also
plan, so that innovators can attract follow-on host demonstrations to overseas delegations to
SECURING THE FUTURE OF UK FORENSIC SCIENCE
CASE STUDY
B
MEEZ ISLAM, Teesside University
CASE STUDY
BIOSENSORS IN FORENSICS
I
BARBARA DANIEL, Head of Forensic Science Unit, King’s College London
CHAPTER 17
ACCESSING FORENSICS
AS A NEW MARKET
MARK LITTLEWOOD, Although the UK market for forensic science is small and declining, the global
co-ordinator of the market continues to grow and expand into new areas of science. The UK
Forensic Science Special should maintain its current high standing in the traditional forensic disciplines,
Interest Group; while seeking opportunities to access overseas markets and developing new
GILLIAN TULLY, Forensic expertise in emerging areas such as digital forensics.
T
Science Regulator
his chapter examines the forensic million, the Home Office indicating £70 million
science sector as a new market, to £80 million, and the Association of Chief
and offers insights into some Police Officers (ACPO – now called the
of the key considerations of National Police Chiefs’ Council) £63million to
bringing a new technology into the Criminal £70 million. Various explanations for this decline
Justice System (CJS). It describes the size and have been offered, including disproportionate
growth rate of the sector, potential areas for cuts to forensics compared with other police
knowledge transfer, the processes involved and work; lower crime rates resulting in a reduced
how to interact with key stakeholders, ethical demand for forensic services; and a reduction in
182 considerations and resources to facilitate market costs due to technological advances3. Previous
entry. This chapter draws extensively on, and attempts at estimating the size of the in-house
uses updated sections from ‘Taking Forensic market have proved inconclusive4.
Science R&D to Market’1, a report by Gillian The global market has been predicted
Tully and Kevin Sullivan that was published by to grow at a compound annual growth rate
the Forensic Science Special Interest Group (CAGR) of 8.34% between 2014-2019 (ref.
(FoSci SIG) in 2013. It offers a much more 5) to reach $17.7 billion6, with developed
comprehensive view of what is involved in countries accounting for more than 50% of the
bringing a new technology to market. total market. However, automated processing is
likely to force down the costs of standardised
MAPPING THE FORENSIC MARKET tests, reducing the total spent on forensic
The forensic market can be divided into two technologies in these regions. This, combined
sectors: traditional forensics and digital forensics. with increased investment in infrastructure,
modern equipment, DNA databases etc in
1. Traditional forensics developing countries, will see the Asia-Pacific
Forensic science provision in the UK is and other regions outside North America
fragmented, making it difficult to estimate the and Europe accounting for 60% of the global
current size of the market. This, combined with forensic science market in the future6.
differing approaches across the world, mean that The forensic technologies market has been
a global figure is even more elusive. The forensic segmenting into 4 broad categories6:
science market is further complicated by the • DNA Profiling
split between external and in-house work such • Biometrics / fingerprint analysis
as scene of crime analysis and fingerprinting. • Chemical analysis (drugs / explosives /
The UK’s external market was predicted to fall toxicology)
from £170 million to £110 million between • Firearms identification and analysis
2009 and 2015 (ref. 2). However, more recent
estimates have been more pessimistic, with Of these, DNA profiling and chemical analysis
the largest forensic service providers indicating typically account for the vast majority of the
a 2015 market value of £70 million to £100 market (see Figure 1).
ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET
Figure 1: North American forensic technologies market 2011-2019, by services (USD Million)6.
Data for the UK and rest of the world are not currently available.
2,495
1, 846
Source: KOL Opinions, Expert Interviews, Press Releases and TMR Analysis
CASE STUDY
BRINGING A FORENSIC
PRODUCT TO MARKET
MICHAEL HEFFERNAN KIM SANDQUIST PETER SCHAD JOHN OWEN
T
CEO of ArroGen CSO Chemistry CSO Biology Managing Director
on investment, while reducing the emphasis e.g. by crossing over to security and counter-
on R&D Delays in implementation have a terrorism markets or medical markets. Funding
major impact on business to bridge the gap from academic work is often
required
Forensic Science Regulator (FSR) • Pressures: The global downturn means that
• Priorities: Validation must conform to standards access to capital for investment has been
within Codes of Conduct and Practice; for a limited. Requirement to show a return on
completely new field, quality standards will investment. Delays in implementation have a
need to be defined major impact on business
• Pressures: Rapidly changing and fragmented
forensic science landscape National Crime Agency (NCA)
• Priorities: The NCA’s goal is to tackle serious
Funding Bodies and organised crime, using a combination of
• Priorities: The UK’s seven Research Councils approaches such as: traditional law enforcement
fund academic research judged to be methods; gathering high-quality intelligence to
excellent, and which has an impact on the know where, when and how to strike with best
growth, prosperity and wellbeing of the UK. effect; monitoring serious career criminals and
A variety of mechanisms are used, including confiscating criminals’ assets
support for international collaborations, • Pressures: Delivering operational priorities;
support for academic career development disruption of criminal markets; systematic
and development of scientific infrastructure. management of persons of interest involved
Innovate UK seeks to promote UK innovation in organised crime; and delivery of more law
and hence economic growth enforcement activity against more organised
186 • Pressures: Maximising the impact of research criminals
funding is increasingly important, and
partnerships between funding organisations Police
such as the Research Councils, Innovate • Priorities: At the highest level, the police
UK, the UK’s Higher Education Funding service’s goal is to improve public safety, so it
Councils, business, government, and charitable wants to know how science can make people
organisations have been established. safer; and when things do go wrong, how can
it help to identify offenders and bring them to
Home Office justice?
• Priorities: The Home Office is committed • Pressures: intense budgetary pressure; new
to producing a forensic science strategy by Policing and Crime Commissioners; police
the end of 2015, in which 5 areas have been reform; reform of the NPCC; closure of the
considered: legitimacy, market/supply chain, National Policing Improvement Agency and
digital forensics, forensic futures, skills and establishment of the CoP
knowledge
• Pressures: Closures of the Forensic Science Operational counter-terrorism (CT) users
Service (FSS) and National Policing • Priorities: The government has laid out its
Improvement Agency (NPIA); National DNA counter-terrorism strategy in CONTEST13
Database (NDNAD) now within Home Office • The strategy is based on four areas of work:
Science; public sector spending cuts; reduction • Pursue: to stop terrorist attacks
in spending on forensic science; criticism from • Prevent: to stop people becoming
House of Commons Science and Technology terrorists and supporting terrorism
Committee. • Protect: to strengthen our protection
against a terrorist attack
Industry • Prepare: to mitigate the impact of a
• Priorities: The UK is a small and decreasing part terrorist attack
of a relatively small global market in forensic
science. Ideally, technology needs to feed more Forensic science has a significant part to play in
than one market to increase attractiveness much of that strategy.
ACCESSING FORENSICS AS A NEW MARKET
CASE STUDY
T
STEPHEN HAY, Director, Pilot Lite Ventures
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research • Helps create successful new products,
Council (EPSRC) processes and services
EPSRC has a number of highly relevant themes
for forensic science research, including: Feasibility Studies
• Digital economy • A single-company or collaborative R&D grant
• Engineering scheme
• Global uncertainties, including cybersecurity, • Lets businesses investigate the technical
disasters and emergencies, CBRN proliferation, feasibility of a new idea
terrorism, threats to infrastructure and • Winners showcase and share their ideas at
transnational organised crime Collaboration Nation events (see Chapter 16,
• Healthcare technologies case study on p179)
• ICT
• Mathematical sciences Innovation vouchers
• Physical sciences • Encourage businesses to look outside their
network for new knowledge
Economic and Social Research Council • Available for UK start-ups and small- and
(ESRC) medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
ESRC’s strategic priorities are: • A £6 million fund to help stimulate innovation
• Economic performance and sustainable growth where few businesses invest. One of the
• Influencing behaviour and informing current priority areas for innovation vouchers
interventions is cybersecurity
• A vibrant and fair society
Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (KTPs)
Innovative, high-quality collaborative proposals • KTPs let businesses work in partnership with 189
between social scientists and physical scientists academic institutions
may find cross-research council funding. • This allows businesses to access knowledge,
technology and skills
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Although medical research may be peripheral Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI)
to forensic science, areas such as understanding • Uses the power of government procurement
the genetic determinants of complex traits, or to drive innovation
major genetic studies, have potential forensic • Lets companies engage with the public sector
applications. Collaborative research may be to solve problems
able to demonstrate impact in both health and • 100% of the funding is provided through a
forensic applications. contract not a grant
mechanism”. The KTN’s Forensic Science into areas such as health. Thus ever more data
Special Interest Group (FoSci SIG) was on the individual will be collected, which is
formed to fill this role, acting to improve useful to the Criminal Justice System but also
communication and work to build a forensic poses privacy issues. There is much to learn
community through collaboration with existing from other areas, such as the clinical sciences, in
organisations. The FoSci SIG is a focal point the ethical management of data.
for innovation and has a remit to facilitate All new techniques and procedures need to
knowledge sharing across disciplines. be backed up by full, traceable and auditable
Even though there are options for support validation studies. Documentation of these
from the public purse, the diverse and studies must be disclosed if the techniques are
multidisciplinary nature of the forensic sciences, ever challenged in the courts. While academics
along with its small market size, means that and companies will routinely keep records of
funding forensic science is not a priority for their research, the requirements of the Criminal
most agencies. Recent use of the SBRI scheme Justice System are much more stringent
has seen a handful of funding calls in the than in other fields. Missing or inaccurate
forensic areas, but these are rare. Perhaps the documentation can result in evidence being
best opportunity is to access the Horizon 2020 thrown out and confidence in a technology
Secure Societies funding calls. disappearing.
Technologies from different disciplines need While there is little direct public funding
to be brought to bear on forensic science for new forensic products, there are some
problems, thereby leveraging work that has sources from government agencies in the UK.
already taken place. The UK has a mechanism Help is also on hand from the Knowledge 191
to do this through KTN and, in particular, the Transfer Network and the FoSci SIG. The UK is
FoSci SIG. historically strong in both the forensic sciences
and in the development of new technologies
CONCLUSIONS for use in other markets. The KTN and the SIG
Accessing the forensic science market is can help to bring the two together, by pulling
not straightforward. The market is small, technologies proven in different sectors over
fragmented and, in many countries, the main to forensics, and leveraging funding that has
customer base is the police service or other already been committed from other areas.
government agencies. A company approaching
forensic science for the first time needs to
have a strong business case, ideally based on THE RISE (AND PROJECTED
multiple jurisdictions, to ensure that the effort INCREASE) IN THE USE OF BIOMETRIC
will yield a return on investment. However, the
UK’s Forensic Science Special Interest Group TECHNIQUES IN THE FORENSIC
(FoSci SIG) has invested in mapping the key SCIENCES MEANS THAT ETHICS
stakeholders involved, and detailing the process
steps required to bring a new technology to AND PRIVACY CONSIDERATIONS
market. BECOME EVER MORE IMPORTANT.
Two of the main considerations are ethics
and validation. The rise (and projected
increase) in the use of biometric techniques
in the forensic sciences means that ethics and
privacy considerations become ever more
important. Researchers are developing DNA
techniques that will allow them to determine
details of a suspect’s physical characteristics
(eye colour, ethnicity, hair colour etc), along
with other biomarkers that could offer insights
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