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Sanjeev Zarbade
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com
MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2018
+91 22 6218 6424
Global markets bounced back strongly in November on lower crude prices and reduction in
bond yields. Indian markets posted one of the best monthly returns after a long time as sharp
correction in crude prices abetted macroeconomic worries. FIIs turned buyers after three
consecutive months of selling. Despite the rebound in the market small and mid-cap indices,
continue to underperform the broader indices.
On the global economy front, we need to watch out for Fed action and pace of future rate hikes.
Few other key events to watch are the G20 meet, trade talks between US and China, OPEC
meeting and news flows on Brexit. So far as the Indian economy is concerned, Inflation has
remained benign and there could be respite on the CAD (due to fall in crude prices). Data on
credit growth and rising Capital goods order books suggests that the economic recovery is
now gaining a foothold.
From an Indian equity standpoint, the key event to watch out would be the Madhya
Pradesh/Rajasthan/Chhattisgarh assembly elections. We believe these elections are
important, as they will be seen as an indication of people's mood towards the ruling party and
could also be a precursor to the upcoming general election scheduled somewhere in Apr-
May’19. However, the impact of state elections could fade away after few weeks of election
result as market participants will again focus on international developments and
fundamentals.
Based on Bloomberg consensus estimates, the one year Fw PE of Mid Cap Index has now
come down to 15x as compared to 16x of Nifty. There is still a sizeable gap between the Equity
PE and bond PE (refer chart 7) which could cap any big re-rating in equities (unless the 10 Yr
G-Sec bond yields go to or below the 7% mark). With macros turning positive and after a 18%
from fall from the peak , the overvaluation in mid cap Index has faded away. The risk-reward
ratio has turned favourable for many mid and small cap stocks. Many of the mid & small cap
stocks have gone closer to their historic low valuations. This provides enough comfort for
bottom fishing at this level in the mid and small cap space. Any near term correction in the
market due to political uncertainty should be viewed as a buying opportunity (provided crude
& currency remain closer to the current levels).
Investors need to have bottoms up approach and pick & choose good quality, beaten down
stocks from respective sectors. To weather the on-going volatility which may remain till middle
of next year (i.e. till Central elections), it is ideal to have higher allocation into high earnings
growth large caps and mid-caps (with strong management pedigree, and reasonable
valuations). One can re-access the situation and re-shuffle their holdings post-election
outcome. The next few months could be very volatile filled with uncertainty, which will also
offer good buying opportunity for Long term investors. Conservative investors may spread
their buying across the next few months to average out any rise or fall in the market.
Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2
Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
0.0%
-0.1%
-3.0% -1.6%
-3.7% -3.1%
-6.0%
-5.7%
-9.0%
Source: Bloomberg
GLOBAL FACTORS
US-China trade standoff
As the G-20 finance leaders meet to discuss global policies in the Argentine capital of Buenos
Aires on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, one of the most pressing challenges will be the trade tariff dispute
between the US and China. The outcome of meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump
and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is likely to decide the future course of Sino-U.S.
relations and global trade. One needs to watch whether US goes ahead with the increase in
tariffs - from 10% to 25% on USD 200 bn of Chinese imports (as scheduled to take effect from
1st Jan’19). Any negative outcome between the two sides could be harmful for global trade and
emerging market currencies.
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Feb-17
Apr-18
May-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Sep-17
Feb-18
Sep-18
Jan-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
Source: Bloomberg
Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3
Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
Brexit deal
In an important milestone for Britain, EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UK's
withdrawal and future relations - insisting it is the "best and only deal possible". Now, the
withdrawal agreement is lined up to be approved by the U.K. Parliament on 12th December
2018. In case the deal is voted down by the U.K, the government could try to extend the
deadline of March 29 (when the U.K. is officially due to leave the European Union) or the
country crashes out of the EU without a deal.
Leaving the EU in March of next year without a deal would mean that World Trade Organization
rules would apply. This would inevitably raise tariffs and costs for both producers and
consumers. At the moment, the U.K. is a member of the EU single market of goods, meaning
that trade is frictionless and with zero tariffs. There would be immense disruption and
uncertainty, including in the energy market, the supply of medicines and medical devices, as
well as in the car industry. A no deal exit could lead to a swift drop in the Pound, similar to that
aftermath of the Brexit referendum in 2016.
10
123
8
6 120
4
117
2
0 114
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Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
Even so, the lower oil prices will result in stable macroeconomic conditions and from an
election standpoint, (1) keep domestic retail auto fuel prices under check; steep increases in
retail auto fuel prices before elections could spiral into an election issue and (2) provide the
current government more fiscal freedom to spend before elections.
120
100
80
60
40
20
Source: Bloomberg
15
10
-5
-10
Jun_16
Jun_17
Jun_18
Mar_16
Dec_16
Mar_17
Dec_17
Mar_18
Sep_16
Sep_17
Sep_18
Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 5
Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
Election Schedule
No of Incumbent
State Assembly seats Government Election date Counting
As of now, opinion polls indicate that the BJP will lose in Rajasthan but retain power in
Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh despite close contests in those states. The market expects
a similar outcome. Thus, a 0-3 (BJP losing all the three states) or 1-2 (BJP losing Madhya
Pradesh and Rajasthan) tally for the BJP may result in a correction in the market. In this
scenario, market may take a dim view of the BJP’s prospects in the general elections given the
importance of the three states in the BJP’s 2014 win. However, a 3-0 or 2-1 (any combination)
score for the BJP may fortify the market’s expectations about the current BJP-led government
forming the next government post the April/May general elections
Chhattisgarh
BJP 40 50 47
INC 47 30 33
Others 10 10
Madhya Pradesh
BJP 108 128 122
INC 122 85 95
Others 17 13
Rajasthan
BJP 56 75 70-80
INC 142 115 110-120
Others 8 7-10
Source: Media reports and Kotak Institutional Equities
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Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
Indian Rupee - With the crash in crude, India's CAD will not aggravate further as the market
feared earlier. Hence, the INR has appreciated by a good margin to below 70 from 74.40
levels. Since the US 10 Year treasury bond yield has corrected to 3.06% from high of 3.23%,
it has resulted in reduction in foreign fund outflows from Indian debt market. Taking note
of the reduction in macro risks and easing of market valuations, FIIs stopped selling and
have turned buyers in November.
Inflation - CPI inflation eased to 3.31% in October from a downward revised print of 3.7% in
September. This was primarily led by contraction of 0.9% in food inflation amid sharp drop
in prices of vegetables and pulses. Food inflation is likely to remain benign, especially as
most kharif crop prices remain well below the MSP prices. This coupled with reversal in
crude prices in November, Inflation is likely to remain under control in the coming months,
we believe.
Interest rates - Given the strong focus of the Monetary Policy Committee on the headline
inflation print, which should remain benign for the rest of 2HFY19 (we expect it in the range
of 2.8-4.3%), the RBI is unlikely to (1) change the repo rate, (2) keep CRR unchanged and (3)
maintain the policy stance at ‘calibrated tightening’
Credit growth - On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, non-food bank credit increased by 11.3 per
cent in September 2018 as compared with an increase of 6.1 per cent in September 2017.
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Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
Investment Cycle - Demand for heavy equipment by Indian companies, an indirect measure
of economic growth, is showing signs of rebound driven by government spending on
railways, roads and smart cities ahead of the next general election. Siemens India Ltd., ABB
India Ltd., Thermax Ltd. and Cummins Ltd. beat quarterly sales and operating income
estimates. While mega/big ticket projects are yet to start, several consumer oriented
industries have begun investing in capacity expansion/capacity optimisation projects,
which is leading to better order book number for companies.
Table - Growth in Quarterly Order intake for key Capital Goods makers (in Q2FY19)
Company YoY (%)
L&T 46
Thermax -3
Siemens 37
ABB 21
Praj 38
Source: BSEIndia.com
Based on Bloomberg consensus estimates, the one year Fw PE of Mid Cap Index has now
come down to 15x as compared to 16x of Nifty. The above average gap between the Equity PE
and bond PE could cap any big re-rating in equities (unless the 10 Yr G-Sec bond yields go to
or below the 7% mark). With macros turning positive and after a 18% from fall from the peak ,
the overvaluation in mid cap Index has faded away. The risk-reward ratio has turned favourable
for many mid and small cap stocks. Many of the mid & small cap stocks have gone closer to
their historic low valuations. This provides enough comfort for bottom fishing at this level in
the mid and small cap space. Any near term correction in the market due to political
uncertainty should be viewed as a buying opportunity (provided crude & currency remain closer
to the current levels).
Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 8
Monthly Market Strategy December 2018
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Sep-09
May-11
Sep-14
Aug-07
Apr-09
Oct-11
May-16
Nov-08
Aug-12
Apr-14
Feb-10
Oct-16
Mar-12
Nov-13
Feb-15
Aug-17
Mar-17
Nov-18
Jan-08
Jan-13
Jan-18
Jun-08
Jul-10
Dec-10
Jun-13
Jul-15
Dec-15
Jun-18
Source: Bloomberg
21.0
Bond PE Nifty 50
19.0
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
Sep-09
May-11
Sep-14
May-16
Aug-07
Apr-09
Oct-11
Nov-08
Aug-12
Apr-14
Feb-10
Oct-16
Mar-12
Nov-13
Feb-15
Aug-17
Mar-17
Nov-18
Jan-08
Jan-13
Jan-18
Jun-08
Jul-10
Dec-10
Jun-13
Jul-15
Dec-15
Jun-18
Source: Bloomberg
Kotak Securities – Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 9
Apollo Tyres Ltd
Analyst: Nishit Jalan / Hitesh Goel
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
239 315 31.8% 307 / 192 136749
Key Highlights:
Domestic revenues increased by 25.3% yoy in 2QFY19 led largely by volume growth. Truck-bus radial tire volumes
grew by almost 35% yoy driven by strong industry growth and continued market share gains for the company.
RM cost per kg increased by 2.5% qoq in 2QFY19 and will inch up further in 3QFY19 due to delayed impact of
increase in crude prices and rupee depreciation. The company has taken 2.5% price hike across segments in end-
September/early October and has announced similar increase in November as well.
Hungary plant is ramping up quite well and exports from India have come down significantly.
The company plans to incur capex of Rs65bn over the next three years – (1) Rs55 bn in India, which will be towards
greenfield plant in Andhra (Rs38 bn), de-bottlenecking of passenger vehicle capacity from current capacity of
35,000 tires per day (10% capacity addition), conversion of truck bias tire capacity to OHT tires, setting up of small
two-wheeler radial tire capacity and maintenance capex and (2) Rs.10 bn in Europe towards completion of capex in
Hungary plant and maintenance capex in the Netherlands plant.
On the issue related to promoter’s compensation, based on the inputs from an independent report by Ernst & Young
(EY), the Nominations & Remuneration Committee of the company has decided to cap promoter’s salary at 7.5% of
PBT (from 10% of PBT earlier); FY2018 promoter’s salary was 9.3% of consolidated PBT. The committee has further
suggested lowering the salary cap in coming years from 7.5% of PBT set currently.
We expect Apollo’s outperformance in the India business (compared to peers) to sustain over the next few years
Going ahead, even as India business remains on a strong footing, we expect performance of Europe business to
improve over the next two years.
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Feb-18
Aug-17
Nov-17
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
P/E (x) 17.8 14.3 10.8
BV (Rs/share) 180.9 183.5 202.2
Net debt/equity (x) 0.3 0.4 0.5 Source: Bloomberg
ROE (%) 8.5 9.4 11.5
ROCE (%) 6.4 7.4 8.6 Share Holding Pattern (%)
Free cash flow (14,798) (11,011) (7,057)
Others
Source: Kotak Insitutional Equities; *Consolidated 15.0%
Promoter
Financials (Rs mn)* 1H-FY18 1H-FY19 % Chg
41.3%
Revenues 47,892 61,689 28.8 DII
EBITDA 4,776 7,858 64.5 22.2%
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.0% 12.7%
Adjusted PAT 1,947 3,917 101.2
Adjusted PAT Margin (%) 4.1% 6.3% FII
21.4%
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 3.8 6.4 66.2
Source: Kotak Insitutional Equities; *Consolidated Source: Bloomberg
This one pager on the company is extracted from last KIE update dated November 13, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that date. We take no obligation to update
the KIE recommendations. Above company recommendation is of KIE which has a different rating system than Kotak PCG as disclosed in the end of the report (before
Disclaimer). While source of all other information is taken from Kotak Institutional Equities, the price performance and shareholding pattern chart is inputted by Kotak PCG
research team (with source as Bloomberg). It is advisable to read the full KIE report before taking any investment decision on the above company recommendation.
Coal India Limited
Analyst: Murtuza Arsiwalla, Samrat Verma
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
244 320 31.0% 317 / 239 1516470
Key Highlights:
Coal India has started FY2019 on a firm footing with 1HFY19 delivering 153% YoY growth in earnings on the back of
21% YoY growth in revenue. We expect the earnings momentum to continue on the back of double-digit growth in
realizations and healthy volume growth.
Coal India reported 3.6% YoY growth in coal dispatches at 50 mn tons in October 2018 with all but two subsidiaries
reporting positive volume growth. Production volumes were healthy with a growth of 7.9% YoY in October 2018.
Overall YTD performance remains healthy with 7.4% YoY growth in dispatches and 10.2% YoY growth in production
volumes.
Coal inventory has decreased to six days for October 2018, from a nine day average in 2QFY19. As many as 19 plants
with critical/super-critical inventories are located in the West out of a total of 28 plants across India. East has no
plants with critical inventory while North and South have four and five plants each.
E-auction premiums increased to 102% in September 2018 from 93% seen in August 2018. Premiums are still well
above those seen in FY2018, and should also be seen in the context of the price increase taken in January 2018.
CIL continued to maintain an elevated capex with Rs85 bn incurred in FY18, almost similar to Rs87 bn incurred in FY17
though meaningfully higher than the 4-year average capex of Rs68 bn.
The long awaited railway lines are being commissioned in parts, with two railway lines in Tori-Shivpuri and
Jharsaguda-Barpali having been commissioned during the year.
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
P/E (x) 9.4 9.3 9.0
BV (Rs/share) 34.0 32.0 29.0
ROE (%) 78.0 80.0 88.0 Source: Bloomberg
ROCE (%) 90.0 91.0 100.0
Free Cash Flow 28,899.0 1,57,694 2,18,068 Share Holding Pattern (%)
Others
Source: Kotak Insitutional Equities; *Consolidated DII
3.0%
13.0%
This one pager contains information like company background, risks & concerns, graphs and tables inputed by Kotak PCG research team. The price target is that of KIE (kindly
refer to the Rating Scale of KIE at the end of this report). The Investment Arguments are extracted from KIE updates dated September 21, October 3, November 2, and
November, 12, 2018 and Financial estimates are extracted from last KIE update dated November 12, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that date. We take no
obligation to update the KIE recommendations.
Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL)
Analyst: Amit Agarwal
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
375 520 38.8% 579 / 356 50928
Key Highlights:
Cochin Shipyard (CSL) is a Government company, incorporated on March 29, 1972 and was conferred the 'Miniratna'
status in 2008, by the Department of Public Enterprise. It is the largest public sector shipyard in India in terms of dock
capacity
The company caters to clients engaged in the defence sector in India and clients engaged in the commercial sector
worldwide. In addition to shipbuilding and ship repair
CSL also offer marine engineering training.
CSL currently has two docks - dock number one, primarily used for ship repair (Ship Repair Dock) and dock number two,
primarily used for shipbuilding (Shipbuilding Dock).
CSL currently has a shipbuilding order book of Rs 19.62 bn which gives investors revenue visibility of only one year.
The company is also a L1 bidder for an order worth Rs 54 bn for 8 Anti-Submarine Warfare- Shallow water vessel from
the Indian navy. Management of Cosh expects to convert this L1 bid to actual orders within FY19 post completion of
formalities with the Indian Navy.
CSL currently has an order-book of Rs 3.5 bn in the ship-repair segment. The company intends to expand in ship-repair
segment with an international ship-repair center and increased geographical reach.
CSL would be ramping up its capacity with a third dry-dock (measuring 310 x 75 x 13 Meters) and an international ship-
repair center at Kochi. The capacity addition will enable the company to construct bigger and complex vessels as well
as undertake repairs of vessels like LNG carriers, semi-submersibles
CSL is one of the best companies to invest to play in the India's defence sector. We estimate company to report sales
CAGR of 8.1% over FY18 to FY20E to Rs 27.9 bn and report earnings CAGR of 3.3% over the same period to Rs 4.26 bn.
Diversified offering, recurring orders from the defence, focus on ship repair segment and strong BS gives us comfort
with the stock. Recommend BUY with a TP of Rs 520 at 16x FY20 earnings.
Financials (Rs mn)* FY18 FY19E FY20E Price Performance (Since August 2017)
Sales 23,922 26,514 27,921
150 Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL)
Growth (%) 16.2 16.2 10.8
Nifty
EBITDA 4,979 5,437 5,959 120
EBITDA margin (%) 20.8 20.5 21.3
PBT 6,021 6,062 6,420 90
Net profit 3,998 4,025 4,263
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 29.4 30.6 32.4 60
Growth (%) 28.1 0.7 5.9
Jan-18
Apr-18
Sep-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
P/E (x) 13.3 12.8 12.0
BV (Rs/share) 235.4 246.5 267.1
Dividend / share (Rs) 12.0 10.0 10.0 Source: Bloomberg
ROE (%) 12.5 12.4 12.1
ROCE (%) 13.5 14.2 14.0 Share Holding Pattern (%)
Net cash (debt) 26,913 22,713 20,376
Others
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research; *Consolidated
11.5%
DII
Financials (Rs mn)* 1H-FY18 1H-FY19 % Chg 10.8%
Revenues 11,766 14,581 23.9
EBITDA 2,456 3,033 23.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.9% 20.8% FII
PAT 1,915 2,539 32.6 2.7%
Promoter
PAT Margin (%) 16.3% 17.4% 75.0%
EPS (Rs) 14.1 18.7 32.6
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research; *Consolidated Source: Bloomberg
This one pager on the company is extracted from last Kotak Securities – Private Client Research update dated October 29, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that
date. Above company recommendation is of Kotak Securities – Private Client Research which has a different rating system than Kotak Institutional Equities as disclosed in
the end of the report (before Disclaimer). It is advisable to read the full Kotak Securities – Private Client Research report before taking any investment decision on the above
company recommendation
Mold-Tek Packaging (MTPL)
Analyst: Jatin Damania
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
270 320 18.6% 374 / 246 7471
Key Highlights:
Mold Tek Packaging stands to gains in the coming years from the increasing share of IML, backward integration and
expansion in the food and FMCG industry.
MTPL was the first company to offer IML technology in 2011, while others were focusing on screen printing and heat
transfer labelling (HTL). IML is a high margin (300-400bps higher) technology compared to the traditional methods.
Emerged as one of the leading manufacturers and suppliers of high quality airtight and pilfer containers/pails in India
for paints, lubricants and FMCG (includes Edible Oil) industry.
Mysore/Vizag plants to be operational from Dec-2018/Feb-2019 and business to start from April-2019. The
management expects these capacities will help the company to continue to grow at 20% annually for the next 2-3 years.
The Q-packs of edible oil and ghee, witnessed robust demand from various companies across Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat
and Rajasthan and numbers are even better in the month of Oct and Nov, 2018. In addition, the company is also
planning to introduce a range of ghee packs for retail packs, which will further increase the contribution of F&F in
overall revenue share. The management is confident to achieve 20% share from F&F in FY19 and increase it further in
the coming years.
The company recently on board HUL, as it customers for ice cream packs, which can add incremental revenue of Rs40-
50 mn annually, this will further strengthen the contribution from F&F segment.
Expect MTPL to continue delivering strong growth in the coming years on the back of integrated facilities and
increasing revenue from the high margin FMCG industry.
Feb-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Nov-18
May-16
Aug-16
May-17
Aug-17
May-18
Aug-18
P/E (x) 26.8 20.0 17.0
BV (Rs/share) 61.2 69.7 80.5
Dividend / share (Rs) 4.0 5.0 5.0 Source: Bloomberg
ROE (%) 16.0 19.1 19.7
ROCE (%) 16.3 16.8 17.3 Share Holding Pattern (%)
Net cash (debt) (845) (1,019) (1,048)
Source: Company; Kotak Securities - Private Client Research *Consolidated
Promoter
35.6%
Financials (Rs mn)* 1H-FY18 1H-FY19 % Chg Others
43.6%
Revenues 1,670 2,028 21.4
EBITDA 298 344 15.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.8% 17.0%
PAT 142 155 8.8
DII
PAT Margin (%) 8.5% 7.6% FII
12.6%
8.3%
EPS (Rs) 5.1 5.6 8.8
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research; *Consolidated Source: Bloomberg
This one pager on the company is extracted from last Kotak Securities – Private Client Research update dated November 27, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that date.
Above company recommendation is of Kotak Securities – Private Client Research which has a different rating system than Kotak Institutional Equities as disclosed in the end of
the report (before Disclaimer). It is advisable to read the full Kotak Securities – Private Client Research report before taking any investment decision on the above company
recommendation.
MRPL
Analyst: Sumit Pokharna
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
74 100 35.7% 137 / 61 129167
Key Highlights:
MRPL (Mini-Ratna status) is a pure play crude oil refiner with strong promoter backing of ONGC (India's biggest government owned
exploration Company). MRPL has transformed itself into a large and complex refinery with phase-III capacity expansion and has
emerged into a much stronger player in the industry.
With the recent correction in crude oil price, we believe the margins should improve in the medium term. The company's management
has indicated that it aims to achieve crude throughput of 16 mmtpa in FY19.
In the medium to long term, the key factors to watch out are GRMs, rupee movement, oil prices and product demand. Further, investors
are waiting for an announcement of swap ratio for merger of MRPL with HPCL.
Marketing initiatives: Direct marketing has increased MRPL's market presence for Petcoke, Sulphur and Polypropylene. It is also
increasing its product grades of Polypropylene to enhance Polypropylene (PP) market share which will improve margins.
The Company has bagged the prestigious "FieldComm group 2018 Plant of the Year" Global award conferred by FieldComm group. The
Company is the first Indian company to receive this International award.
New expansion plans in place - Growth is a process: MRPL has set-up the next milestone and is planning to enhance its refining
capacity to 25 mmtpa as against current capacity of 15.5 mmtpa. Additionally, the company is planning to scale up its petrochemical
capacity to boost its margins. The Company will invest Rs.110 bn in this expansion. We like the sharpened focus of the company on its
growth strategy. The expansion is seen as a major margin driver as it will help the company to process cheaper, heavier crudes into
high-value products like diesel, liquefied petroleum gas and propylene.
Re-commencing retail outlets: The Company has commissioned COCO (company owned and company operated) retail outlet in
Mangalore and also commissioned its DODO (dealer owned dealer operated) retail outlet. In Karnataka, this is the sixth RO for MRPL.
MRPL has drawn up plans for opening over 100 retail outlets which will improve its overall margins due to addition of marketing
margins.
Auto fuel up-gradation: MRPL is in the process of upgrading its facilities to produce BS-VI grade MS& HSD by April 2020.
Going ahead, MRPL's profitability will be supported by i). Improved product mix, ii). Better margins iii). Economies of scale, iv). Forward
integration - Polypropylene plant and v). Various tax benefits.
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
P/E (x) 6.5 8.3 6.5
BV (Rs/share) 58.4 65.0 73.0
Dividend / share (Rs) 3.0 2.3 3.1 Source: Bloomberg
ROE (%) 17.7 14.1 16.0
ROCE (%) 12.9 11.6 13.1 Share Holding Pattern (%)
Net cash (debt) (99,073) (87,822) (72,456)
DII Others
Source: Company; Kotak Securities - Private Client Research *Consolidated 6.6%
3.2%
FII
Financials (Rs mn)* 1H-FY18 1H-FY19 % Chg 1.6%
Revenues 269,108 343,156 27.5
EBITDA 14,909 9,574 (35.8)
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.5% 2.8%
PAT 7,379 2,819 (61.8)
Promoter
PAT Margin (%) 2.7% 0.8%
88.6%
EPS (Rs) 4.1 1.6 (60.6)
Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research; *Standalone Source: Bloomberg
This one pager on the company is extracted from last Kotak Securities – Private Client Research update dated October 29, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that
date. Above company recommendation is of Kotak Securities – Private Client Research which has a different rating system than Kotak Institutional Equities as disclosed in
the end of the report (before Disclaimer). It is advisable to read the full Kotak Securities – Private Client Research report before taking any investment decision on the above
company recommendation
State Bank of India
Analyst: MB Mahesh, CFA/ Nischint Chawathe/ Dipanjan Ghosh
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
285 380 33.4% 335 / 232 2542169
Key Highlights:
SBI reported a profit of Rs 9.5 bn in 2QFY19, as provisions declined 40%. Revenue declined 12% YoY despite NII growth
of 12% YoY, primarily due to weak fee income growth and lower contribution from treasury book.
2QFY19 saw the second consecutive quarter of improvement in gross and net NPL ratios. Gross NPLs declined 75 bps
QoQ to less than 10% while net NPLs declined 45 bps QoQ on to 4.8% of loans. Slippages for the quarter declined to
2.3% of loans with most of the corporate slippages coming from the watch-list.
SBI has negligible exposure to IL&FS and subsidiaries. The bank reported Rs 2.5 bn exposure to the holding company
and Rs 35 bn (0.01% of loans) of exposure to the group via SPVs (around 14 in number).
Overall loan growth (net) improved to 9% YoY driven by robust growth in retail loans and gradual revival in corporate
loan growth; albeit at a muted pace. On gross basis, retail loans saw robust increase at 14% YoY. SME growth stood at
5% YoY.
Retail segment constitutes ~28% of the loan book (up 120 bps YoY). Corporate book comprises 36% of loan book (up
70 bps QoQ). Bank will look at maintaining the share of corporate book in 36-40% range based on the opportunities in
the corporate segment.
CASA ratio stood at 44% in 2QFY19 (up 50 bps YoY and 20 bps QoQ) led by strong growth in SA balances. SA growth
improved to 9% YoY while CA revived to 6% YoY. Bank has benefitted from higher average balances in savings
accounts post demonetization, greater traction in corporate salary packages and new current accounts.
CAR and CET-1 stood comfortable at 12.6% and 9.7%, respectively.
We expect the stock to re-rate as we believe -
the bank has embarked on a favorable journey of NPL resolution; loan growth is accelerating; NIM has scope for
expansion; Operating expenses are not showing any negative surprises.
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
P/B (x) 2.1 1.8 1.3
This one pager on the company is extracted from last KIE update dated November 13, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that date. We take no obligation to update
the KIE recommendations. Above company recommendation is of KIE which has a different rating system than Kotak PCG as disclosed in the end of the report (before
Disclaimer). While source of all other information is taken from Kotak Institutional Equities, the price performance and shareholding pattern chart is inputted by Kotak PCG
research team (with source as Bloomberg). It is advisable to read the full KIE report before taking any investment decision on the above company recommendation.
Supreme Industries Ltd
Analyst: Pankaj Kumar
CMP (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Potential Upside (%) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)
994 1205 21.3% 1490 / 944 126201
Key Highlights:
Supreme Industries Ltd (SIL) is the major player in the plastic pipes business with established brand equity and
diverse presence across other business segments such as packaging, industrial products, plastic furniture, etc.
The company manufactures and sells diverse range of plastic products broadly categorized across 5 different
verticals, plastic piping system, consumer products, industrial products, packaging products and composite products.
SIL has track record of generating high ROCE of ~30-35% with low debt/equity and strong positive operating cash
flows driven by 1) efficient utilization of assets 2) diverse products mix with increasing share of high margins value
added products 3) better working capital management v/s its peers.
SIL management has guided for 10% growth in volume with 14.5-15% EBITDA margin in FY19E driven by robust plastic
demand across most of the segments and increased contribution from high margin and value added products.
SIL has 25 manufacturing units spread across geographies with pastic processing capacity of 567,850 tonnes per
annum.
The company is increasing capacity across segments which would help in maintaining volume growth. It is adding
50,000 tonne per annum capacity every year in FY19E-FY21E with total capex of Rs 12-13 bn funded largely through
internal accruals.
The company is positive on composite cylinder business and expects order from domestic as well as international
market in FY19E.
We expect earnings to grow at faster pace in the next two years on improved volume growth outlook for the company,
focus on increasing share of value added products and its ability to pass on increase in raw material prices.
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
P/E (x) 31.8 28.5 23.1
BV (Rs/share) 149.1 170.0 199.0
Dividend / share (Rs) 12.0 12.0 12.0 Source: Bloomberg
ROE (%) 22.1 21.9 23.3
ROCE (%) 30.1 30.2 33.6 Share Holding Pattern (%)
Net cash (debt) (2,164) (1,702) 86
Others
Source: Company; Kotak Securities - Private Client Research *Consolidated
21.1%
This one pager on the company is extracted from last Kotak Securities – Private Client Research update dated October 30, 2018 and it does not contain events beyond that
date. Above company recommendation is of Kotak Securities – Private Client Research which has a different rating system than Kotak Institutional Equities as disclosed in
the end of the report (before Disclaimer). It is advisable to read the full Kotak Securities – Private Client Research report before taking any investment decision on the above
company recommendation.
RATING SCALE (KOTAK SECURITIES – PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCH)
Definitions of ratings
BUY – We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months
ACCUMULATE – We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months
REDUCE – We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months
SELL – We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months
NR – Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for
information purposes only.
RS – Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there
is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing,
an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA – Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable
NM – Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
NOTE – Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with
applicable regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory
capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there
is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if
any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
Sanjeev Zarbade Ruchir Khare Jatin Damania Cyndrella Carvalho Ledo Padinjarathala
Cap. Goods & Cons. Durables Cap. Goods & Cons. Durables Metals & Mining, Midcap Pharmaceuticals Research Associate
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com ruchir.khare@kotak.com jatin.damania@kotak.com cyndrella.carvalho@kotak.com ledo.padinjarathala@kotak.com
+91 22 6218 6424 +91 22 6218 6431 +91 22 6218 6440 +91 22 6218 6426 +91 22 6218 7021