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NOVEMBER 2018
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» Up to 5 million tonnes of palm oil (more than Specific, substantive criteria are needed to
the amount currently used in EU biofuel) will be ensure that only feedstock that is truly additional
produced in 2030 on low carbon stock land in to a business-as-usual case can be certified as
Indonesia and Malaysia that was not previously low ILUC. The Clean Development Mechanism,
used for agriculture to meet baseline demand an internationally-recognized program certifying
for food, feed, and oleochemicals. This amount greenhouse gas reductions in developing
could qualify as low ILUC based on the RED II countries, has strong additionality criteria that
definition, but diverting it from other uses will can serve as an example for the EU. Without
still indirectly cause further palm expansion strong guardrails, the low and high ILUC
onto high carbon stock land. provisions in the RED II are not likely to reduce
ILUC impacts at all.
» Around 3 million tonnes of palm oil could be
produced annually in 2030 from increased Table: share of oil palm expansion on major land types
yields due to business-as-usual improved from 1990-2015 in Indonesia and Malaysia.
agricultural practices since 2020, without any
Indonesia Malaysia
additional improvements due to the RED II.
Again, even though this amount of feedstock Forest 26% 42%
could be defined as low ILUC in the RED II, Other wetlands 14% 0%
diverting it from other uses will cause ILUC.
Shrubland and savannah 13% 1%
» A simple interpretation of the low ILUC
Bareland 7 23%
criteria in the RED II could allow a doubling
of the amount of palm oil used in EU biofuel Agriculture and timber 38% 35%
compared to current consumption levels
Other 2% 0%
without reducing ILUC impacts.
PUBLICATION DETAILS
Title: Analysis of high and low indirect land-use change Author: Stephanie Searle
definitions in European Union renewable fuel policy
Contact: Stephanie Searle, +1 202 534 1612,
Download: https://www.theicct.org/publications/ stephanie@theicct.org
analysis-high-and-low-iluc-definitions-eu
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