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PII: S1743-9191(15)01343-6
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2015.11.027
Reference: IJSU 2334
Please cite this article as: Staniforth JUL, Erdirimanne S, Eslick GD, Thyroid carcinoma in graves’
disease: A meta-analysis, International Journal of Surgery (2015), doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2015.11.027.
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To be considered for publication in:
International Journal of Surgery
25 November 2015
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THYROID CARCINOMA IN GRAVES’ DISEASE: A META-ANALYSIS
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Joy U. L. Staniforth
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Senarath Erdirimanne
Guy D. Eslick
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The Whiteley-Martin Research Centre, Discipline of Surgery, The University of
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Discipline of Surgery
The University of Sydney
Nepean Hospital
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Australia
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Key words
increased risk of thyroid malignancy in Graves’ disease: there has not yet been a
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determine the risk of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease, and to gather information
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on the histological subtypes of carcinoma and the co-existence of thyroid nodules.
Methods: Several databases and article reference lists were searched. Inclusion
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criteria included appropriate diagnostic criteria for thyroid conditions and a diagnoses
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Results: 33 studies were selected, all reporting on surgically-resected specimens.
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The event rate of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease was 0.07 (95% CI 0.04 to
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0.12). There was no data to allow comparison with patients without hyperthyroid
disease compared to toxic multinodular goitre and toxic uninodular goitre. 88% of
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thyroid carcinomas in Graves’ disease were papillary, with solitary papillary micro-
carcinomas. Patients with Graves’ disease and co-existing thyroid nodules were
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almost 5 times more likely to be diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma than those without
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nodules.
disease for nodules whilst being aware of potentially over-diagnosing papillary micro-
carcinoma.
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Introduction
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of the thyroid follicles and increases the production of thyroid hormone. Remaining
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common causes of hyperthyroidism are toxic multinodular goitre, in which multiple
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adenoma, in which there is a single hyper-functioning thyroid nodule.
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Thyroid carcinoma is the most common endocrine cancer [2] and is a neoplasm of
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the thyroid epithelium. Arising from the follicular cells are papillary carcinomas (80%
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of cases), follicular carcinomas (14%, of which 3% is the Hürthle cell subtype), and
from the medullary cells [2]. Papillary micro-carcinoma is a papillary lesion less than
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extremely good clinical outcome [4] and, as such, the value of its diagnosis and
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Thyroid carcinoma is a significant health issue. Worldwide, thyroid cancer was the
9th most common cancer to be diagnosed in females in the year of 2008 [6]. The
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Thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease was originally thought to be a rare
phenomenon [7], even “insurance against cancer of the thyroid” [8]. However, a
number of recent primary studies have individually indicated that the opposite may
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carcinogenesis centre around pathways activated by the binding of thyroid-
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stimulating antibodies, which as well as stimulating growth may also promote
invasion and angiogenesis [9] and activate insulin-like growth factor pathways [7].
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The American Thyroid Association states that thyroid cancer occurs in Graves’
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Thyroid carcinoma may be associated with a thyroid nodule, which are detectable on
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ultrasound in 30% to 70% of the population [4, 5] and clinically important for their
malignant potential (4% to 6% of biopsied nodules [5]). The American and British
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nodules in patients with a clinical history that is high risk for thyroid carcinoma [4, 11]
For nodules of a size 10mm or less in patients without a high risk history, case-by-
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Graves’ disease versus control individuals with no thyroid pathology is not well
incidence of thyroid carcinoma in patients with Graves’ disease and other forms of
this meta-analysis. From the located information, we were also able to review the
histological subtypes of thyroid carcinoma in patients with Graves’ disease and the
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Methods
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Literature search strategy
We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-
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Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines [12, 13]. A systematic search of the databases
MEDLINE (from 1950), PubMed (from 1946) and EMBASE (from 1949), through to
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the 19th of February 2015 was carried out by JS to identify relevant articles. The
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search used the terms ‘Graves’ disease’ AND ‘thyroid cancer’ OR 'thyroid
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carcinoma', which were searched as text word and as exploded medical subject
headings where possible. The reference lists of relevant articles were also searched
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for appropriate studies. No language restrictions were used in either the search or
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Study selection
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(a) Graves’ disease, and thyroid disease of comparison groups, was named explicitly
or sufficient information was provided in the study as to ensure the diagnosis fit the
relevant ICD-10 criteria; where toxic multinodular goitre (TMG) and toxic adenoma or
toxic uninodular goitre (TUG) could not be further specified, these were included as a
“mixed” control group of “unspecified toxic nodular goitre” (uTNG); figures for which
histology in accordance with the WHO classification of thyroid carcinoma [2, 14], or
(ii) was published after 1974 when the first edition of the WHO classification was
(c) the study did not exclude any type of thyroid carcinoma or condition in which
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thyroid carcinoma was found (for example, studies reporting on only a certain
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histological subtype of carcinoma, or only carcinoma associated with nodules, or
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(d) the study did not pre-select any specific group of patients with Graves’ disease
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(e) where a comparison group was used, the risk point estimate was reported as an
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odds ratio (OR), or the data was presented such that an OR could be calculated;
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(f) where a comparison group was used, the 95% confidence interval (CI) was
reported, or the data was presented such that the CI would be calculated;
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(g) where the study used a comparison group, this group was internal.
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Data extraction
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The data extraction was performed using a standardized data extraction form,
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collecting information on the publication year, study design, country, and continent.
The number of cases (patients with Graves’ disease), if applicable, the number of
controls (patients with TUG, TMG, or uTNG), and the total number of diagnoses of
thyroid cancer made in each of these groups was extracted. Where available, data
patients and on co-existing thyroid nodules in patients with Graves’ disease (for this,
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methods of nodule detection, the number of patients with nodules, and thyroid
carcinoma detected in patients with nodules was extracted if given in the study). The
quality of the studies was not assessed and the authors were not contacted for
missing data.
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Risk estimates and CIs were calculated from the available data and included in the
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extraction form. Adjusted ratios were extracted in preference to non-adjusted ratios,
however, where ratios were not provided, unadjusted ORs and CIs were calculated.
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Where multiple risk estimates were available in the same study, for example due to
the use of different comparator groups, they were included as separate risk
estimates.
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Statistical analysis
Pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the effect of
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and quantified the degree of heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, which represents
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the percentage of the total variability across studies which is due to heterogeneity. I2
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values of 25, 50 and 75% corresponded to low, moderate and high degrees of
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regression model [16], with the effect of bias assessed using the fail-safe number
method. The fail-safe number was the number of studies that we would need to have
number is less than 5n+10, with n being the number of studies included in the meta-
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analysis [17]. All analyses were performed with Comprehensive Meta-analysis
Results
Fig 1. A flow diagram showing the process reached to identify the 33 studies
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included in the meta-analysis, following the identification of approximately 50 000
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citations by database search
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The 33 identified studies [18 – 50] shown in Figure 1 and Table 1 were retrospective
reviews carried out in a variety of geographical regions. They examined the cases of
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patients with Graves’ disease who had undergone the surgical removal of all or part
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of their thyroid gland (total of sub-total thyroidectomy) for a variety of reasons. 14
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studies [20, 21, 24, 26, 27, 31, 36, 38, 41, 42, 44, 46, 47, 50] also included
participants with other hyperthyroid diseases. Reasons given for surgery included
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these were not consistently linked to all study participants in any study. No studies
Table 1. Study characteristics. Shown are the number of cases of Graves’ disease,
GD; toxic multinodular goitre, TMG; toxic uninodular goitre TUG, and unspecified
toxic nodular goitre, uTNG. Numbers of cases of carcinoma, Ca, in each group are
shown in brackets
As shown by the funnel plot in Figure 2, no publication bias was detected (p = 0.98).
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disease, utilising regional comparison, was 0.07 (95% confidence interval 0.04 to
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0.12).
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Fig 3. The event rate of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease. CI, confidence interval
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28 studies [20 – 23, 25 – 40, 42 – 46, 48 – 50] reported the histological subtypes of
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thyroid cancer diagnosed in Graves’ disease: this data is presented in Table 2. 325
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of the 498 reported cases of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease included a
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histological diagnosis. In 88% of cases this was papillary, 10% follicular, 0.6% mixed
papillary-follicular, 0.6% medullary, and 0.3% anaplastic. 254 of the reported cases
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also included the size of the lesion in addition to the histological subtype. 29% of all
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diameter, and 23% of all thyroid carcinoma was papillary micro-carcinoma. There
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20 studies [18, 20, 22, 23, 25, 26, 28 – 30, 33, 35 – 37, 40, 43 – 46, 48, 50] provided
some data on the co-existence of thyroid nodules in studied patients: this is shown in
Table 3. Overall, where thyroid nodules were reported 51% of reported carcinomas
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were found in patients with Graves’ disease and thyroid nodules. In the 10 studies
[22, 25, 29, 35 – 37, 40, 43, 45, 48] that reported the total number of patients with
Graves’ disease and co-existing nodules, 23% of patients had nodules and
carcinoma occurred in 23% of these patients with nodules; for patients with Graves’
disease and no detected nodules, the proportion of carcinoma was only 5%. 10
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studies [20, 22, 23, 25, 26, 28, 36, 43, 45, 46] in which carcinoma was discovered in
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patients with co-existing nodules reported the size and type of lesion; 38% of
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Table 3. Thyroid cancer diagnosed in the presence of clinically-detectable thyroid
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nodules. Ca, carcinoma; P, palpation; U, ultrasound; S, scintigraphic identification of
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cold nodule(s); -, not stated. The studies did not record whether the carcinoma was
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found within the detected nodules, unless otherwise stated in the table
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in Graves’ disease compared to any type of toxic nodular goitre is 0.89 (95% CI 0.63
Fig 4. Odds ratios of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease compared to all toxic
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nodular goitres. b, toxic uninodular goitre; TNG, unspecified toxic nodular goitre;
Ten studies [20, 24, 31, 36, 41, 42, 44, 46, 47, 50] reported thyroid carcinoma in both
Graves’ disease and toxic multinodular goitre; the odds ratio of developing
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carcinoma in Graves’ disease compared to toxic multinodular goitre was 1.24 (95%
CI 0.81 to 1.90), and there was no statistically significant heterogeneity (I2 = 0.00, p
= 0.82). Ten studies [20, 24, 31, 36, 41, 42, 44, 46, 47, 50] reported thyroid
carcinoma in both Graves’ disease and toxic uninodular goitre; the odds ratio was
0.96 (95% CI 0.58 to 1.57), and there was again no statistically significant
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heterogeneity (I2 = 5.13, p = 0.39). Four studies [21, 26, 27, 38] reported thyroid
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carcinoma in both Graves’ disease and unspecified toxic nodular goitre; the odds
ratio was 0.43 (95% CI 0.14 to 1.33), and in this case there was statistically
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significant heterogeneity (I2 = 71.73, p = 0.01) which likely results from the small
sample size.
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Discussion
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controls in this study, the incidence rate of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease
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seen here is roughly 2.5 times the overall global figures. This is likely due to a higher
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detection rate in the surgically-resected specimens of this study, and indeed our
countries [51]. Our event rate of 0.07 of thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease (95%
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CI 0.04 to 0.12) is at least double the 2% figure quoted by the American Thyroid
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Association [10]. A recent review [52] noted that thyroid carcinoma incidence is
increasing worldwide, and this represents both an apparent increase due to more
The proportion of thyroid carcinoma histological types does not appear to differ
widely from the literature [51]. The proportion of papillary carcinoma is slightly
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increased (88% compared to 80% expected). The occurrence of papillary micro-
carcinoma in malignant and benign thyroid disease; 23% [51]. The elevated
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diagnosis of papillary micro-carcinoma has doubled in two decades [51].
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Correspondingly, in a recent study of papillary thyroid carcinoma in Hashimoto’s
thyroiditis [54] it was observed that studies in which thyroidectomy was performed for
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clinical reasons generated a statistically significant positive correlation between
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aspiration studies did not find a correlation. The detection of incidental lesions that
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are not clinically important is not cost-effective and can cause direct harm to the
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treatment [53].
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The 23% co-incidence of Graves’ disease and thyroid nodules found here is in
agreement with a previous review [7], which found palpable thyroid nodules to occur
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in 10% to 15% of patients with Graves’ disease. The use of ultrasonography and
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scintigraphy as methods of nodule detection in the studies used in this analysis is the
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likely cause of the increased detection rate compared to palpation alone. The
previous review [7] also found a malignancy rate of 2% to 46% in patients with
Graves’ disease and palpable nodules, in-keeping with our figure of 23%. Only 3
within a nodule; this occurred in 55% to 100% of cases. The 38% proportion of
nodules and carcinoma than palpation and scintigraphy, with most of these
A 2012 review [9] found that the incidence and prognosis of thyroid cancer
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associated with hyperthyroidism was highly variable between studies. Pooling the
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available data, our meta-analysis shows no increase in the odds of thyroid
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disease; this is relatively consistent between studies, as shown in Figure 3.
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The mechanisms driving thyroid carcinoma in Graves’ disease may not be entirely
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antibody-mediated given the similar odds of developing thyroid carcinoma in nodular
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There are a number of limitations in this study. Selection bias will be present as all
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patients undergoing surgical treatment, and for a variety of reasons which were not
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linked directly to the patients studied. Overall, this could mean greater severity of
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hyperthyroid disease, with a greater degree hyperplasia and potentially atypia, than
not all of the thyroid tissue was examined. There is a likely over-reporting of papillary
micro-carcinoma which may well have been otherwise clinically insignificant. Patient
data including demographics and family history of thyroid carcinoma were not linked
nodules were not given, so the presence or absence of high-risk features is not
known, and there were a variety of diagnostic tests performed for nodules with
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reasons for their deployment not clearly stated.
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Conclusions
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The event rate of thyroid cancer in Graves’ disease is at least double the currently-
accepted 2% of the American Thyroid Association [10]. This may, however, be due
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to the increased detection of papillary micro-carcinoma in the surgical patients who
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comprise the studies.
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management.
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For surgical Graves’ disease patients with nodules there should be a clinical
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patients. Clinicians may wish to consider the screening of selected patients for
nodules, but must bear in mind the resulting possibility of over-treatment of cases of
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Funding
None.
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No.
No. Author Time period GD (Ca) TMG (Ca) TUG (Ca) uTNG (Ca)
centres
18 Behar et al. (1986) 1971-81 1 194 (10)
19 Bradley and Leichty (1983) 1971-83 2 166 (5)
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20 Cappellli et al. (2006) 1985-2001 1 145 (9) 339 (13) 207 (10)
21 Chou et al. (1993) 1980-91 1 674 (10) 27 (4)
22 Erbil et al. (2008) 1996-2005 1 150 (18)
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23 Farbota et al. (1985) 1961-84 1 117 (6)
24 Gabriele et al. (2003) 1980-2000 2 64 (0) 241 (4) 120 (3)
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25 Gerenova et al. (2003) 1990-2000 1 95 (7)
26 Hales et al. (1992) 1966-89 1 886 (16) 322 (5)
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27 Hancock et al. (1977) 1960-72 1 457 (7) 92 (3)
28 Kasuga et al. (1993) 1965-90 1 847 (36)
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29 Kraimps et al. (2000) 1991-97 5 557 (21)
30 Lin et al. (2003) 1989-2000 1 42 (4)
31 Linos et al. (1997) 1982-91 1 112 (6) 226 (16) 62 (5)
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32 Miccoli et al. (1996) 1986-94 1 140 (13)
33 Mssrouri et al. (2008) 1995-2005 1 547 (6)
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34 Ozaki et al. (1990) 1983-85 1 739 (15)
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35 Ozoux et al. (1988) 1971-84 1 88 (4)
36 Pacini et al. (1988) 1970-85 1 86 (6) 21 (4) 40 (1)
37 Phitayakorn et al. (2013) 1985-2010 1 300 (35)
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38 Pomorski et al. (1996) 1974-94 1 704 (3) 2762 (18)
39 Razack et al. (1997) 1982-92 1 62 (3)
40 Ren et al. (2014) 2002-12 1 423 (58)
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Other Ca
Ref. All papillary Ca
Study P, papillary; PF, mixed papillary-follicular;
no. (single papillary micro-Ca)
F, follicular; M, medullary; A, anaplastic
Cappellli et al. (2006) 20 9 (4) 0
Chou et al. (1993) 21 9 (-) 1F
Erbil et al. (2008) 22 18 (14) 0
Farbota et al. (1985) 23 4 (1) 2F
Gerenova et al. (2003) 25 7 (6) 0
Hales et al. (1992) 26 15 (11) 1F
Hancock et al. (1977) 27 3 (-) 3 F, 1 PF
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Kasuga et al. (1993) 28 30 (20) 6F
Kraimps et al. (2000) 29 20 (-) 1F
Lin et al. (2003) 30 1 (-) 3F
Linos et al. (1997) 31 5 (-) 1M
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Miccoli et al. (1996) 32 13 (≥ 5) 0
Mssrouri et al. (2008) 33 3 (-) 2 F, 1 PF
Ozaki et al. (1990) 34 11 (6) 4F
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Ozoux et al. (1988) 35 4 (4) 0
Pacini et al. (1988) 36 2 (1) 4F
Phitayakorn et al (2013) 37 34 (≥ 22) 1F
Pomorski et al. (1996) 38 1 (-) 2F
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Razack et al. (1997) 39 3 (3) 0
Ren et al. (2014) 40 56 (-) 1 F, 1 A
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Ruggieri et al. (1999) 42 1 (1) 0
Tameata et al. (2012) 43 7 (4) 1F
Terzioğlu et al. (1993) 44 2 (-) 0
Thakur et al. (1995) 45 3 (2) 1F
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20 Cappelli et al. (2006) U 7 (2) -
22 Erbil et al. (2008) U 11 (4), of which 6 (4) in a nodule 80
23 Farbota et al. (1985) S 2 (0) -
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25 Gerenova et al. (2003) P +/ U +/ S 6 (5) 46
26 Hales et al. (1992) S 5 (4) -
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28 Kasuga et al. (1993) - 7 (2) -
29 Kraimps et al. (2000) P +/ U +/ S 21 (-), all in a nodule 140
30 Lin et al. (2003) U +/ S 4 (-) -
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33 Mssrouri et al. (2008) P 3 (-) -
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35 Ozoux et al. (1988) S 0 9
36 Pacini et al. (1988) P +/ S 4 (1), of which ≥ 3 (0 to 1) in a nodule 18
37 Phitayakorn et al. (2013) S 3 (-) 24
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40 Ren et al. (2014) P +/ U 46 (-) 96
43 Tameata et al. (2012) - ≥ 1 (0) ≥ 2*
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44 Terzioğlu et al. (1993) S 0 -
45 Thakur et al. (1995) S 2 (0) 7
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46 Viana et al. (1999) U +/ S 3 (0) -
48 Weber et al. (2006) P+S 5 (-) 12
50 Zanella et al. (2011) P+S 1 (-) -
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Highlights
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Thyroid malignancy in Graves’ disease requiring surgical treatment is important.
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