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Fundamental analysis is based on the premise that every share has a certain intrinsic value at a period
of time.
This intrinsic value changes from time to time as a consequence of both internal and external factors.
The theory of fundamental analysis suggests that one should purchase a share when it is available
below its intrinsic value and sell it when it rises above its intrinsic value.
When the market value of share is below its intrinsic value it is undervalued, whereas if the market
value of a share is above its intrinsic value it is overvalued.
Calculation :
Let us assume that one expects a return of 20% on an investment every year for 3 years.
Let us also assume that the company would pay dividends of 20%, 25% and 30% on its Rs.10 share
(face value )
The dividend received on a share would therefore be Rs.2.00 in the first year, Rs.2.50 in the second,
and Rs.3.00 in the third. Let us also assume that the share can be sold at Rs.200 at the end of 3 years.
The intrinsic value of the share will be:
If the market price of the share is below Rs.120.88 then the share is below its intrinsic value and
therefore well worth purchasing. If, on the other hand, the market price is higher, it is a sell signal and
the share should be sold.
It means company is issuing 2 rights issue (new) shares for every 3 shares held by the shareholders of
the company at Rs 100 per share. Shareholder has the right to accept or not to accept the offer.
Generally they are lower privileged in terms of voting rights in comparison to ordinary equity share
holders.
DVR investors are generally compensated with a higher dividend rate. This makes the DVRs attractive
for retail investors who do not want control in the company, but are looking at the long-term growth
prospects.
The quarter results come out by the mid of the subsequent quarter. The market always approaches the
earnings reporting day with caution. That day can be a time of some volatility, either up or down for
particular stocks and/or sectors.
In India, a financial year starts from 1st of April and ends on the subsequent march 31st. So the
quarters are as follows-
Quarter 1 (Q1)-1st April to 30th June (AMJ) Earnings for the quarter will be declared around July-
August.
Quarter 2 (Q2) – 1st July to 30th Sept (JAS). Earnings for the quarter will be declared around October
– November.
Quarter 3 (Q3) – 1st Oct to 31st Dec (OND). Earnings for the quarter will be declared around January
– February.
Quarter 4 (Q4) – 1st Jan to 31st Mar (JFM). Earnings for the quarter will be declared around April –
May.
Companies also declare half yearly results clubbing two quarters. Investors, based on the given facts,
try to figure out the expected earnings of the company.
This expectation of the investors is what is actually reflected in the share price movements. So, in
addition to the actual earnings, the expectation of earnings also plays an important part in stock prices.
Companies that fail to meet the expectations of the investors get beaten by the market.
So it is not the actual business figures or the news (even non-biased) does not move the market but
how the people (investors / traders) react to the news moves the price.
Earnings = Revenue – Expenses ( payroll , raw material , taxes , interests on loans etc )
What is MPS?
MPS stands for Market Price per Share.
It is not necessarily the same as Current Trading Price or Current Market Price of a share.
The market price per share is also called the intrinsic value of a share of stock or the actual value based
on the actual variables taken from the company's financial statements where as the current trading price
is based on investor buying and selling behavior.
What is P/E?
It is a valuation ratio. Calculated as CMP / EPS
Example –
Company made a profit of 400 lakh (post tax and preference dividend) in 2013. No of ordinary shares
is 50 lakh. The share of the company is trading at Rs 112
EPS = 400 / 50 = Rs 8
P/E = 112 /8 = Rs 14
It means that the investor would take 14 years to recover the investment through earnings. This also
indicates the yield is 7.14% (100 /14 years )
The P/E ratios of well established and financially sound companies are high and as the returns are high
for weaker companies the P/E ratio is low since they are riskier investments.
The P/E ratio would be high so long as the investing public has faith in a company's ability to grow and
to earn a return or an appreciation in its share price. It will fall as soon as this confidence in the earning
capacity of the company falls. This is why prices rise dramatically in boom periods. In periods of
depression, they fall.
Company earnings is calculated by deducting the „cost of sales‟, „operating expenses‟ and „taxes‟ from
its total sales revenues.
The part of the company‟s profit that is attributed to each individual share of stock.
Example, if a company earned Rs 200 Crores in the third quarter and had 50 Crore shares outstanding,
the EPS would be Rs 4 (200 / 50).
EPS calculated with the last year end actual earnings figure is called “trailing EPS”. It is the actual EPS
figure.
EPS calculated with Future earnings figures - it‟s called “forward EPS”.
What is difference between cost of sales and operating expenses?
Cost of sales are direct costs incurred towards goods or service production ( labor charges , raw
materials etc )
Operating expenses are indirect costs incurred towards the production of goods or service ( advertising
cost , legal cost , staff salary etc )
Market Cap is divided into 3 popular categories. There is no formal categorization on this. However in
Indian context we can go by the stated below figures (approx )
Operating margins are important because they measure efficiency. The higher the operating margin, the
more profitable a company's core business is.
Revenue hinted at in the above formula means the revenue generated from company's core business.
Example: A bank forwards loan of Rs 100 to customer at a rate of 15% and this Rs 100 the banker has
borrowed from investors through NCD at 12%.
M = (15-12)/100 = .03 = 3 %
NII stands for Net interest income equals the interest earned minus the interest paid out to
customers.NII is similar to Interest Spread.
Interest Spread = Interest Rate charged for lending – Interest Rate paid to the depositors.
Promoter holding needs to be excluded from the total float (i.e. total shares issued while calculating
outstanding share.
What is EBDITA?
It stands for EBDITA means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Different companies assume different methods to prepare their financials( like depreciation, tax
provisions etc ) Hence to bring things at par analyst at times look out for vanilla Earnings figures
before tax, interest expense , depreciation etc .
The higher the EBDITA margin, less operating expenses eat into company's bottom line which leads to
more profitable situation.
The prime concern is profit – we can also call it as Earnings. The real issue is what goes into that
number. There are many flavors to it – EBDITA. Other popular flavors are -
However Amortization is used for Intangible Asset and Depreciation is used for Tangible Asset.
It means - The security is valued at 11.7 times the estimated earnings of FY15-16 ( which is Rs 178.4)
i.e. 11.7 x 178.4 = Rs 2087.28
Now this price needs to be compared with CMP of the security and then any possible decision like –
buy – sell or hold etc should be taken.
o P/E : Price Earnings Multiple ( CMP/EPS ) CMP : Current Market Price ( i.e. current trading
price of the stock )
What is CAGR?
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Example :
If a portfolio of 100000 INR in 2010 becomes 147000 INR in 2013. It means CAGR for the portfolio
is 13.71% pa.
The portfolio has grown by 13.71% pa (interest has been compounded year on year from 2010 to 2013)
2. Economic Indicators
Example - Is the growth rate reasonable? How comfortable is the balance of payment position?
4. Company
Example - Need to look at Annual Reports / Management / Management Practices
Most annual reports are in the form of a book. It runs into many pages starting from a chairman‟s
message to future plans and prospects. An annual report is presented in the annual general meeting.
It is also the value of a share printed on the face of a share certificate hence the name.
The most common face value used in India is 10 but there are stock listed shares having a face value of
1.2.5. And even 100.
In short they get preference over equity shareholders in case of payment of dividends on in case of
winding up of the company.
A high debt-equity ratio, generally 2:1 and above, is not considered favorable for companies. Also, this
ratio
Varies from industry to industry and may not be relevant for the banking and financial sectors.
Debt-equity ratio = (Secured + Unsecured debt) / Shareholders Funds, Example : As on 31st March
2013, company had secured loan of Rs. 70 crore, unsecured loan of Rs. 30 crore, shareholders funds
(equity and reserves) of Rs. 200 crore.
It is used to calculate the earnings on investment (shares) considering only the returns in the form of
total dividends declared by the company during the year.
Dividend Yield = ((Interim + Final Dividend) / (Market Price of the share)) x 100
Example: For a company for FY10, Interim dividend = Rs. 2 per share, Final dividend = Rs. 3 per
share, Share price = Rs. 50, Dividend yield = (2 + 3) / 50, Dividend yield =10%
Dividend Payout ratio = (Dividend per equity share) / Earnings per share (EPS) x 100
Example: For FY13, a company had EPS of Rs.20. It paid dividend of 20% (Rs. 2 per equity share of
Rs. 10 each) for the year. Here , Dividend payout ratio = ( 2 /20 ) x 100 = 10%
What is Return on Equity (RoE)?
Return on Equity, also known as Return on Networth or Return on Shareholders‟ Funds or Return on
Investment, indicates how profitably a company is utilizing the shareholders funds. The higher the
percentage, the more efficiently the shareholders funds have been utilized, indicating better return to
investors.
RoE is ratio of net income (available for equity shareholders) to average shareholders' equity.
Example: If net profit is Rs.200 crore, Equity share capital is Rs.100 crore, Reserves and Surplus is
Rs.400 crore, Miscellaneous Expd. Nil