Global Supply Demand of Mined Copper

Globally Chile (30%) ranks 1st in world mined copper production followed by Peru
(11%) and China (10%). Chile contributes
to 1/3 of the world�s mined copper production.

Table 3: Global Mined Copper Production (KT)

CY15 CY16 CY17
Global Mined Copper Production 19,132 20,217 20,028
% Change(y-o-y) - - 5.7% -0.9%

Table 4: Global Refined Copper Production and Demand (KT)

CY15 CY16 CY17
Global Refined Copper Production 22,870 23,309 23,503
% Change (y-o-y) - 1.9% 0.8%
Global Refined Copper Demand 23,041 23,429 23,758
% Change (y-o-y) - 1.7% 1.4%
Surplus/Deficit -171 -120 -255

Indian Copper supply came down by 48% b'coz of shut down of vedanta sterlite copper
plant in tuticorn.
this reduced the forecasted copper output to drop to 540KT from 843kt in 2018.

the Indian copper market forecasted to grow at 8-10% in 2019-20, driven by

upcoming infrastructure projects
and increased rural and railway electrification, there is asimultaneous focus on
ramping up mine supply. Hindustan copper is in the process of raising mine
capacity from 3.2mtpa to 12mtpa over the next four years, across its captive mines
at Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand.
Given India�s mining production is only 0.2% of the global output, there exists a
massive opportunity for greenfield exploration and brownfield expansion.

Copper�s demand drivers in medium to long-term:

� Electric vehicles (EV) penetration in global markets could result in an
incremental copper demand of 1.2mtpa, which is 5% of annual consumption by 2025
� Pure battery-powered electric vehicles use ~80- 90kg of copper per vehicle and
hybrids 40-60kg of copper, incomparison to an internal combustion engine powered
automobile which requires an average 20kg of copper
� Charging stations are likely to demand ~1-5kg of incremental copper, in 1:1 or
1:2 ratio with car sales
� Higher transformer capacity may be required in streets having higher penetration
� Rising demand from renewable energy sources: Growing competitiveness of renewable
energy sources will see increased penetration across global markets, with solar
generation capacity forecast to triple and wind capacity to double by 2025. This
will be a major driver of increasing copper consumption given the per megawatt/hour
demand
coefficient for offshore wind generation is ~five times and solar is two and a half
times, than that associated with coal generation.

there are two type of industries in india which deal with copper

Primary industries

These industries convert ore into refined form of copper like Birla copper,
Hindustan copper and Sterlite copper of vedanta group(whose has been shut down
b'coz of environmental isuues)
Secondary Industries

These industries convert the refined copper in to wires, foil, etc for consumption
by rest of the industries.

Copper outlook(in KT)

Production %change consumption % change Exports
%change Imports % change
FY16 790 - 456 - 290 -
31 -

FY17 795 0.6% 454 -0.4% 300

3.4% 34 10.1%

FY18 843 6% 458 0.9% 344

14.7% 37 8.9%

In light of the order of the permanent closure of the Tuticorin smelter, the
production of domestic refined copper is expected
to be around 510 KT during FY19 resulting in 40% drop from the FY18 production
levels. India�s refined copper production
during FY18 was 843 KT.
-India has been a net exporter of refined copper (A �grade quality) as there has
been excess production in the
domestic markets.
- The Tuticorin smelter accounts for 40% of the country�s copper smelting capacity,
and has contributed to 48% of the
refined copper production during FY18.
- Given that refined copper consumption is to increase in the given backdrop of
robust infrastructure activities
undertaken by the government, closure of smelter will impact the trade dynamics, of
India leading us to resort to
additional imports changing the country from a net exporter to a net importer.
India exported 344 KT and imported
37 KT of refined copper during FY18 (April-February)
- Even if the two existing producers (Hindalco and HCL) increase their utilisation
rate it will not be sufficient to meet
the domestic demand. The industry�s current utilisation level is well over 80% and
even if they raise their utilisation
levels to 100% they cannot meet the shortfall.
- Hindalco will not be able to divert its production to the domestic market due to
its long-term export contracts

source:CIME Production data is from April to March whereas Consumption, Exports and
Imports are from April to February

Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) in Public Sector, Hindalco Limited and Vedanta
Industries Limited in Private Sector are
three major players which dominate the copper industry in the Indian Markets.
India�s total smelting and refining capacity
is approximately 999.5KT

S.No. Company Location Smelting and Refining capacity

1. Hindalco Dahej 500KT
2. Vedanata Tuticorn 400KT(shut down)
3. Hindustan copper Various Locations 99.5KT
Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) is a vertically integrated company. The mines owned
by HCL have the Smelting facilities located right next to their
mines (Khetri Copper Complex which is in Rajasthan and Indian Copper Complex which
is located in Jharkand).Gujarat Copper Project (formerly known
as Jhagadia Copper Limited, acquired by HCL),is into smelting and refining of
secondary copper

Growth Drivers:

(source:https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/electric-vehicles-will-make-up-
only-7-of-new-car-sales-in-india-in-2030/1234505/)The electrification of road
transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, thanks to
tumbling battery costs and large-scale manufacturing, with sales of electric cars
racing to 28%, and those of electric buses to 84%, of their respective global
markets by 2030.
-The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows the
sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide
last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they
establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.
China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the
global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start
declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market.
In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the
global light-duty vehicle market. �Shared mobility� cars will be a small but
growing element.

-Bharat stage VI norms tightened the policies and standards for making the diesel
engines which threatens the companies like maruthi whose car prices move up a lot
if they adopt to BS VI norms
The main reason behind Maruti Suzuki�s announcement, however, is not the fuel price
differential, but the new emission norms that will come into effect on April 1,
2020 � less than a year from now.
The prohibitively high cost of upgrading diesel engines to meet the new BS-VI
emission norms is why leading carmakers have pulled the plug on their diesel
options.
The economics of the conversion does not make it worthwhile to continue with the
diesel option after the transition to BS-VI.
The difference in the price of a petrol and a diesel car, now around Rs 1 lakh on
average, could go up to Rs 2.5 lakh.
Maruti Suzuki sells a range of diesel vehicles in passenger and light commercial
segment.
Around 23 per cent of all vehicles the company sells in the Indian market
currently are diesel cars.

-Electric vehicle (EV) usage is expected to grow 9x over the next decade resulting
in a 7% increase in copper demand.

- India, which currently accounts for 2% of global copper consumption, is most

likely expected to increase its consumption over the medium term.

- The drivers for India�s consumption will be strong economic growth and rising
urbanisation in the country. There is a massive cultural shift in the metropolitans
as citizens become
more aware of declining climatic conditions. This has also led to an increase in
demand for air purifiers, electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy