California Housing

Market Update
Monthly Sales &
Price Statistics
April 2019

May 16, 2019

Jordan G. Levine
Deputy Chief Economist
 overview

01 Why we should be
concerned:
• Sales falling on monthly and annual basis
• Price growth has slowed significantly
• Buyer demand has softened
• Market less competitive for your sellers
02 Why we shouldn’t blow it
out of proportion:
• Economy is still growing & most people have jobs
• Affordability might IMPROVE! Rates helping!
• Most people still WANT to be homeowners
• Ways for YOU to impact YOUR bottom line
• No impending doom on horizon of leading data

03 Why homeownership
matters so much
2019: Tough year, but lots of volume out there.
Selling homeownership can help create more!
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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2
Let’s nerd out for a
minute.
Economic fundamentals remain solid

GPD 3.2%
2019-Q1
Unemployment 3.8%
March 2019
Consumption 1.2%
2019-Q1
Job Growth 1.7%
March 2019
Core CPI 2.0%
March 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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4
Unemployment near record low

Kern 10.1%
14
US California Fresno 9.4%
Stanislaus 7.5%
12
Santa Barbara 4.9%
10 Riverside 4.7%
Los Angeles 4.4%
8 Sacramento 4.3%
San Diego 3.7%
6 Napa 3.5%
Contra Costa 3.5%
4 Alameda 3.3%
Orange 3.2%
2 Santa Clara 2.9%
San Francisco 2.6%
0 San Mateo 2.4%
Sep-76
Sep-78
Sep-80
Sep-82

Sep-86
Sep-88
Sep-90
Sep-92
Sep-94
Sep-96
Sep-98
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10

Sep-14
Sep-16
Sep-18
Sep-84

Sep-12
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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5
 Consumers confidence improved in April

April 2019: 129.2

160
140 129.2

120
100
INDEX, 100=1985

80
60
40
20
0

SERIES: Consumer Confidence

SERIES: Consumer Confidence
SOURCE: The Conference Board
page
SOURCE: The Conference Board CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 6
 Fed has raised rates 9x since Dec 2015
January 2012 – May 2019
6 MONTHLY WEEKLY
January 2012 – April 2019
5 4.14
4.14
4
3.75
3.68
3
Fed Raise Rate
2 FRM the 1st time since 2.5 2.5
ARM mid-2006

1 Fed Funds Rate

SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM, Fed Funds Rate (Target Rate)
SOURCE: Freddie Mac, St. Louis Fed
page
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 7
 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%

-4%
-5%
-3%
-2%
-1%
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
#affordability

Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Losing competitive edge?

Apr-14
California

Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
U.S.

Apr-15
CA vs. US Job Growth

Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Jan-19
08
page
How about Housing?
 Sales Had Smallest YTY
Decline since July 2018
700,000
California, April 2019 Sales: 396,090 Units, -7.4% YTD, -5.0% YTY

600,000
Apr-18: Apr-19:
416,750 396,090
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
 California Home Sales
Down 12 Months in a Row
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11
Sales by Region
April 2019 Home Sales Growth
April 2019 Home Sales by Region
Other
by Region
Counties, 7% 0%
Central
Coast, 4% -0.4%
-1%
-1.0%
-1.2%
Central -2%
Valley, 22%
-3%

-4%
-4.1%
-5%
S.F. Bay
Area, 19% -6%
Southern
California,
48% -7%
-7.1%
-8%
Central S.F. Bay Southern Central Other
Valley Area California Coast Counties

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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 Sales Up in Mid-Priced Ranges

April 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment

6% 0% 10% 20% 30%
2.9% 3.4% 3.1%
4%
$0 - $299k 13.4%
2%
0.2%
0% $300 - $399k 15.2%
-2%
-1.9% -2.6% $400 - $499k 13.7%
-4%
-6%
$500 - $749k 24.2%
-8%
-10% $750 - $999k 11.3%
-12% -11.5% $1,000 -
-14% 13.5%
$1,999k

$2,000k+ 4.3%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
What’s the scoop
with prices?
California Median Price Set
a New High in April 2019
California, April 2019: $602,920, +6.5% MTM, +3.2% YTY Apr-18: Apr-19:
$584,460 $602,920
P:May-07
$700,000 $594,530

$600,000

$500,000

T: Feb-09
$400,000 $245,230
-59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Price Growth Bounced back and Registered
the Highest Price Gain in 6 Months
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%

30%

20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
 Condo/Townhome Price Dipped
the 2nd Time in 3 Months
$600,000

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Apr-18: Apr-19:
$476,010 $470,000
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05

Nov-05

Feb-07

Jan-10

Nov-10

Feb-12

Jan-15

Nov-15

Feb-17
Sep-06

Sep-11

Sep-16
Jul-07
Dec-07

Jul-12
Dec-12
Jun-05

May-08
Oct-08

Jun-10

Oct-13

Jul-17
Dec-17
Jun-15
Apr-06

Mar-09

May-13
Aug-09

Apr-11

Mar-14

May-18
Oct-18
Aug-14

Apr-16

Mar-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile

California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (April 2019)

7% 6.4%
6%
5%
4.1%
4%
3%
1.9%
2% 1.6%
1% 0.5%
0%
-1%
-2% -1.5%
-1.9% -1.8%
-3% -2.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Price/Square Foot Reached the
Highest Level since Late 2007
$400 April 2019: $290, Up 4.7% MTM, Up 3.2% YTY
$350 Apr-18: Apr-19:
$281 $290
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 No Impending Collapse Evident

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

40%

30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-12

Apr-17
Oct-12

Jul-13
Oct-13

Jul-14
Oct-14

Jul-15
Oct-15

Jul-16
Oct-16

Jul-17
Oct-17

Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-18

Apr-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
 California Market Velocity
Suggest More Slow Growth
Price Growth
150%
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
Market Velocity (12 month trailing average) Market Velocity
50%

Existing SFR Median Price Growth

40%
100%
30%
20%
Market Velocity

50%
10%
0% 0%
-10%
-50%
-20%
-30%
-100%
-40%
-150% -50%
Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Jun-15
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Dec-08

Jun-09

Jun-10
Sep-10

Jun-11

Jun-12
Mar-09

Dec-09
Mar-10

Dec-10
Mar-11

Dec-11
Mar-12

Dec-12

Jun-13
Mar-13

Dec-13

Jun-14
Mar-14

Dec-14
Mar-15

Dec-15

Jun-16
Mar-16

Dec-16

Jun-17
Mar-17

Dec-17

Jun-18
Mar-18

Dec-18
Mar-19
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
Demand issues
at play
 Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell?

Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?

57% 56%
51% 53%
48% 50% 48%
46% 45%

27% 25% 25%

22% 22% 24% 22% 22%
21%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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Do you think it’s a good time to buy a home in California? (n=300) 23
Do you think it’s a good time to sell a home in California? (n=300)
 Housing Affordability
Peaked at Q1 2012
California, 1984-2019
80%

Annual Quarterly
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED

70%

60% US, 57%

50%
HOME

40%
CA, 32%
30%

20%

10%

0%

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 24
 Many Simply Can’t Afford to Buy
70% 2019-Q1: % able to purchase median-priced home
63%
60% 57%

50%
40%
32%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
How Wages Stack Up
Against Prices?
$140,000
California $126,470

2017 Annual Mean Wage $110,890

$120,000 $102,700
$96,270
$93,550
$100,000
$77,990
$73,860
$80,000

$60,000 $52,720

$40,000 $30,280

$20,000

$0
Retail Chefs and Firefighters Elementary Police and Computer Registered Software Min. Inc
Salespersons Head Cooks School Sherriff's Programmers Nurses Developers Required to
Teachers Patrol Officers (Applications) Buy a Med.
Home

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R. page

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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 Homes Are Taking
Longer to Sell
California, April 2019: 21.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
 Especially at Bottom
End of the Market
California Median Time on Market by Quintile
25
23
22
20 20 20
20
18 18
16 16
15 15 15 15
15 14 14 14
13 13
12 12

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Apr-18 Apr-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
 More Sellers Are
Discounting Homes
Apr-18:
April 2019: 98.9%, +0.4% MTM, -1.1% YTY 100.0%
Apr-19:
98.9%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
 Luxury Properties
Biggest Discounts
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
102.0%

101.5%

101.0%

100.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
99.5%

99.0% 98.9%

98.5%

98.0%

97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Apr-18 Apr-19

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
 Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 32.9%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.0%
California Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
45% 9%
40% 8%
35% 32.9%7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 4.0% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
10/1/2010

10/1/2011

10/1/2012

10/1/2013

10/1/2014

10/1/2015

10/1/2016

10/1/2017

10/1/2018
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010

1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012

1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013

1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014

1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015

1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016

1/1/2017
4/1/2017
7/1/2017

1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018

1/1/2019
4/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
31
 Price Reductions Slowing
Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +2.9%;
Growth in Median Reduction Amount: -0.1%

8% Growth in Reduced-Price Listings 0.00%

6% -0.05%

4% -0.10%

2% -0.15%

0% -0.20%

-2% -0.25%

-4% -0.30%

Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Supply
playing a role too
 Inventory Index Up Due Primarily
to Increase in Active Listings
18.0

16.0
April 2018: 3.2 Months; April 2019: 3.4 Months
14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would

take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining
inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
“Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the
sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
Active Listings Had Smallest
Growth since June 2018
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%
10.8%
10%

0%

-10%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
Supply Improved in All but
the Lowest Price Segment
Apr 2019
Active Listing

20% 18.8%
16.1% 16.3%

10.8%
10% 8.6%
5.7%

0%
-0.3%

-10%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
Active Listings Up
in All Regions
Apr-18 Apr-19
30,000
27,833
25,562
25,000

20,000
Active Listings

15,000

9,165 9,801
10,000
7,220
5,338
5,000
2,423 2,581

0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
 Why It Isn’t Just Supply
Apr 2019
Sales Active Listings
40%
35.3%

30%
Year-to-Year % Chg

20%

10% 8.9%
6.9% 6.5%

0%
-1.0% -1.2% -0.4%
-4.1%
-10%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
38
Now for the
Good News
 Mortgage Payment Declined
Two Months in a Row
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
6%
20%
5%
4.47%
4.14% 15%
4%

YTY% Chg.
10%
3%
5%
2%
0%
1%
-5%

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jan-16

Jul-16
Oct-16

Jul-17
Oct-17

Jul-18
Oct-18
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
0%
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-19
Jan-15

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Jan-18

Sep-18
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
40
 YTY% Chg.

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%

-5%
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Two Months in a Row

Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17

Price Growth
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Mortgage Payment Declined

Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Mortgage Pmt Growth

Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment

Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Mar-19
Apr-19
41
page
 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

0%
2%
4%

-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%

-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
Jan-17

Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17
Sep-17

Oct-17
2nd Consecutive Month
Pending Sales Grow For

Nov-17

Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18
Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18
Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

Mar-19

Apr-19
42
page
 Let’s talk
homeownership.
 #0: our bread and butter

CA, March 2019 Sales: 397,210 Units, -8.2% YTD, -6.3% YTY
700,000

600,000 Mar-18: Mar-19:

423,990 397,210
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
44
#1: wealth creation
$160 U.S. Median Net Worth
$140

$120

$100 $97.3

$80

$60

$40

$20

$0
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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45
#1: wealth creation
U.S. Median Net Worth
300

250 $231.4

200

150

100

50
$5.0
0
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Owner Renter or other

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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46
#2: hedge against inflation

U.S. Median Prices vs. Rents

350
292.9
300
250 281.2
200
150
100
50
0
1991

2007
1988
1989
1990

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Median Price Median Rent

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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47
#2: hedge against inflation

U.S. Median Prices vs. Rents

300

250

200

150

100 Wasted money?

50

0
1991

2007
1988
1989
1990

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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48
#3: better individual outcomes

“Children of homeowners
are significantly more likely
to stay in school until age
”

17 than children of
renters…”
- Journal of Urban Economics

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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49
#3: better individual outcomes

“A safe, decent, affordable

home is like a vaccine. It
literally prevents disease.”
- Dr. Megan Sandel, Boston University School of Medicine

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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50
#4: intergenerational transfers

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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51
#5: societal benefits

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%

-4%
-5%
-3%
-2%
-1%
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
#affordability

Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
California

Jul-14
#6: losing competitive edge?

Oct-14
Jan-15
U.S.

Apr-15
CA vs. US Job Growth

Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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53
page
the punchline

“While studies simulating the

financial returns to owning and
renting find that renting is often
more likely to be beneficial, in
practice renters rarely accumulate
any wealth.”
- Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2013

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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54
 U.S. Economic Outlook

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019f

US GDP 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 3.0% 2.4%

Nonfarm Job Growth 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3%

Unemployment 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7%

CPI 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4%

Real Disposable Income, % Change -1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6%

30-Yr FRM 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 4.6%

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SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 55
 California Housing Market
Outlook
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019f

SFH Resales (000s) 414.9 382.7 409.4 417.7 424.9 402.8 375.1

% Change -5.9% -7.8% 7.0% 2.0% 1.7% -5.2% -6.9%

Median Price ($000s) $407.2 $446.9 $476.3 $502.3 $537.9 $570.0 $568.8

% Change 27.5% 9.8% 6.6% 5.4% 7.1% 6.0% -0.2%

Housing Affordability
36% 30% 31% 31% 29% 28% 26%
Index

30-Yr FRM 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 4.6%

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SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 56
Conclusion
Putting it All Together
The Good News
• Economy still growing for now
• Still demand, just less so
• More listings for REALTORS®
• RE moving relatively quick
• Rates won’t go up as fast
• Market not as competitive
• Buyers can start to negotiate
The Challenge
• Need to negotiate again
• Seller expectation adjustment
• Weak bottom = buyer issues
• Interest rates helping for now
• Slower prices a good thing?
• Market to soften in ’19
• Focus on Selling Ownership
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Where is the Market Data?

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Housing
Matters
Podcast

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Thank You