Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Economic growth likely slowed in the first quarter of this year from Q4 2018’s
recently revised print, owing to increasing headwinds from both the domestic and external
sectors. The manufacturing sector continued to weaken in March, with the PMI falling to
a 7-month low and business confidence slumping to the lowest level in the survey’s three-
year history. Likewise, merchandise exports slumped again in February. Meanwhile, the
protracted budget deadlock continues to derail new public works projects and social
program spending that were scheduled to begin this year. This, coupled with the election
spending ban on new infrastructure projects (spanning from the end of March to mid-
May), suggest public investment will likely be feeble in the first half of the year, which
would eat into overall growth in Q1 and Q2.
The economy should advance at a steady pace this year. Public consumption and
fixed investment are expected to remain robust despite moderating somewhat, while
sustained remittances and more benign inflation should underpin solid household
spending. The budget impasse will likely have a notable drag on growth, however, while
a global slowdown is a key downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding
6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and also 6.3% in 2020.
Philippine Economic Data