INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH PAPER

“PAK-INDIA RELATIONS AND PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY”

23rd SENIOR MANAGEMENT COURSE
(SMC)

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT, PESHAWAR

By
HASSAN AFZAL KHAN (FSP)
A paper submitted to the Faculty of the National Institute of Management
(NIM), Peshawar, in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the 23 rd Senior
Management Course.
The paper is the end product of my own efforts, research and writing and
its contents are not plagiarized. The paper reflects my own views and is not
necessarily endorsed by the faculty or the NIM.

Signature ______________
Date 07 June 2018
Paper Supervised by:
Mr. Muhammad Tayyib,
(Additional DS)

i
Preface

This research paper basically focusses on the Pakistani perspective vis-à-vis Indian
responses on various bilateral issues including the core issue of Kashmir. The basis for this paper
stem from the need to break the current impasse in the relationship and find ways forward
beneficial to Pakistan. It is my passion to find the root cause, thus leading us a way out of current
crisis.

I am indeed grateful to a strong support group, without which I would not be able to finish
my research paper. First of all, my faculty advisor, who supported and guided me throughout the
research process. I also got valuable inputs from my colleagues in the Foreign Office especially
working in the South Asia Desk. Thank you all for your unwavering support.

Executive Summary

The oldest rivals in South Asia, India and Pakistan, have been embroiled in numerous
issues for the last 70 years. The differences arouse as early as partition in 1947 as the Britishers
left hastily. The relations are constantly challenged by territorial issues and it’s a relationship with
one step forward and two step backward. Hostilities broke as early as 1948 and then armed forces
crossed each other’s boundaries in 1965, 1971 and then in 1999. Siachen and Sir Creek are also
territorial issues that have further created rifts in the relationship. Apart from terrorism and nuclear
arms, Kashmir is nonetheless the core issue between the two sides.

The relationship is more of a roller-coaster ride, continuously goes up and down or

viciously circles around a pivot. During the last 70 years, most of the actions from both sides have
not yielded positive results. Although from Pakistani perspective, Kashmir is the root cause, but
indeed the problem stems from the shared history/ geography. The silver lining in the relationship
is that both sides continue towards dialogue and disruption is never permanent. The two countries
continue to return to negotiating table to settle their differences and there were occasions when
workable outcomes were achieved. There were indeed a number of opportunities that if availed by
both India and Pakistan could deepen this relationship.

However, in the recent past, Pakistan’s approach was to resolve the core dispute i.e.
Kashmir, whereas, India’s approach had been to build conducive environment for negotiations.
India had been propagating that Pakistani state is weak, being controlled by the strong military,

ii
which is promoting terrorism. They also blame Pakistan for slow progress in the trial on the
Mumbai attacks. On the other hand, Pakistan continuously demand for concrete evidence, which
has not been shared by the Indian side. India is hence using this trial as a propaganda tool and most
of world is with them.

Pakistan strongly feel that India is not keen to resolve the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.
They intend to use the dialogue process to focus on terrorism without showing any flexibility on
other issues. It has been observed that India is on the offensive and would continue its anti-Pakistan
rhetoric.

The first step in the way forward is to put its own house in order. Pakistan should improve
its law and order situation, ensure political and economic stability. Pakistan should not be seen
begging for dialogue. Both of the countries need regional harmony and it should be made clear
that no strings should be attached to negotiations. Pakistan also need to display proactive
diplomacy and Human Rights violations in the Indian occupied Kashmir should be projected at all
available international forums. India should be pressed to come to the negotiating table.

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 GLOSSARY OF TERMS

CAMs Conflict Avoidance Measures

CBMs Confidence Building Measures

CENTO Central Treaty Organization

CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor

IoK Indian Occupied Kashmir

IoF Indian Occupied Forces

ISI Inter-Services Intelligence

LoC Line of Control

NAP National Action Plan

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NAM Non-Aligned Movement

PoW Prisoner of War

RAW Research Analysis Wing

SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization

UN United Nations

UNMOGIP United Nations Military Observer Group in India and

Pakistan

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Table of Contents
Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1
Section 1 ............................................................................................................................... 4
Historical Background and Major Events in the Relationship .................................................. 4
1.1 Partition .............................................................................................................................4
1.2 First Kashmir War 1947-48...................................................................................................4
1.3 Indus Water Treaty- 1960 ....................................................................................................5
1.4 Indo-Pak War- 1965 .............................................................................................................6
1.5 Indo-Pakistan War- 1971 .....................................................................................................7
1.6 Shimla Agreement - 1972 ....................................................................................................7
1.7 Sharing of Nuclear Information- 1988 ..................................................................................7
1.8 Armed Resistance in Kashmir- 1989 .....................................................................................8
1.9 Nuclear Tests - 1998 ............................................................................................................9
1.10 Lahore Visit - 1999...............................................................................................................9
1.11 Kargil War- 1999..................................................................................................................9
1.12 Tensions along LoC 2001-2003 ........................................................................................... 10
1.13 Relative Normalization-2004-08......................................................................................... 10
1.14 Mumbai Attacks - November 2008 ..................................................................................... 10
1.15 Recent Events - 2010-17 .................................................................................................... 11
Section –2 ........................................................................................................................... 12
Pakistan-India Other Disputes ............................................................................................. 12
2.1 Sir Creek ........................................................................................................................... 12
2.2 Siachen ............................................................................................................................. 12
2.3 Salal, Wuller and Baglihar Projects ..................................................................................... 13
2.4 Pakistan Foreign Policy ...................................................................................................... 14
2.5 Principles of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy ................................................................................ 14
2.6 Pakistan Foreign Policy Towards India................................................................................ 15
Section-3 ............................................................................................................................. 17
Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 17
3.1 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 18
Bibliography....................................................................................................................... 20

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 Introduction
Since the partition of Indian subcontinent in 1947, under contentious circumstances, both
Pakistan and India have not been able to remove the animosity and their relations have always
remained stressed. The tense relations between the Muslims and Hindus of subcontinent and the
ever-growing mistrust based on the hegemonic designs of Hindus were the main reasons for the
partition. The partition was not smooth as scores of people died on either sides of the border
especially in areas of Punjab. It was one of the biggest migration in the history of the world. The
communal violence is still continuing in India as cow slaughtering has remained one of the biggest
reasons for such violence.

Soon after partition, Kashmir issue came to the forefront, as Indian forces invaded the state
to protect the Maharaja and that remained the main cause of Pak-Indo wars in 1948, 1965, 1971
and 1999. Apart from protecting the rights of Muslims, who are in majority in Kashmir, Pakistan
was fearful that India would be able to control the Indus river system, which is the lifeline for
Pakistan being an agro economy.

Pakistan’s Foreign Policy, like any other state, was designed to attain certain targets and
after its independence the survival of state took precedence over any other issue. It used both
Islamic ideology and pragmatic realism with some consistency1. However, the external factors
influenced the course of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy.

Statement of Problem
The relationship between Pakistan and India has been one of the most complex based on
mistrust. Both countries, while sharing a strong historical heritage, had been involved in various
military conflicts further fueling suspicion and hatred. In the recent past, the tensions on the line
of control have resulted in the loss of precious lives on both sides. India, knowing fully well, that
it cannot fight a conventional war, has resorted to destabilization efforts. Pakistan does not expect
any improvement in ties with India, in the near future, because of negative strategies adopted by
India. Tensions between the two countries have also been high because of human rights violations

Ellis, K.C. “Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Alternating Approaches”, in Dilemmas of National Security and
1

Cooperation in India and Pakistan, ed. Malik H. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1993).

1
and high handedness by the Indian Occupied Forces (IoK) in Kashmir.

India has been working to isolate Pakistan internationally through systematic diplomatic
manoeuvres. However, it needs to be analyzed that is it imperative for Pakistan to engage with
India and what does it seek to gain from that engagement. Secondly, who should Pakistan engage
with in India?

Scope and Significance

The study is important because as they say that you can choose your friends but not your
neighbors. So, both countries need to find a solution. This is the most significant problem faced
by Pakistan since its inception and a way forward would be beneficial for both countries. The study
will bring forward the main issues between the two sides, with some probable reasons and explore
the need for engagement. The study would be generally informative for all but most importantly,
it would be beneficial for the policy makers.

Review of Literature

Most of the researchers have found out that Kashmir is the bone of contention between
Pakistan and India. Korbel (1956) and Mohan (1992) felt that nefarious designs of British
colonialism was behind the birth of Kashmir tragedy. They emphasized that mistrust and suspicion
between the two countries have prevented a solution to this problem. Echoing a similar concern,
Ninian (2009) and Akhtar (2010) add that religious and cultural peculiarities further obstructed an
amicable solution. In their studies, Akhtar and Choudhry (2010) come to a conclusion that both
the issues of Kashmir and Terrorism are the main impediments to peace in this region. On the
similar lines, Shekhawat (2009) dwells that emphasis on bilateral trade along with diplomatic
handling of sensitive issues may bring ever-lasting peace.

From an Indian point of view, Misra (2007) lays blame on Pakistan’s double game with
India, talking peace on one hand, while supporting freedom movement in Kashmir on the other.
There are other researchers like Indurthy (2005) and Ragavan (2009) focusing on the role of USA
as a facilitator in resolution of this conflict. Then Garver (2004) thinks that Chinese policies can
also influence the policy makers in both countries.

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 There has been a plethora of literature on India-Pakistan relations primarily focusing on
Kashmir issue, nuclear programmes, peace efforts and terrorism. However, very little is available
on the current situation especially on the Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally and the
options available with Pakistan to bring India to a negotiation table. In order to fill up this
knowledge gap, this research paper after analyzing various issues between India and Pakistan
primarily recommends the way forward for Pakistan, thus making it a unique research paper.

Method

The investigation will be chronological and analytical in nature. The primary and
secondary sources will be used. The primary sources will be memoirs, official letters and records,
eye witness accounts etc. The secondary sources are the articles and books available on the
subjects.

Organization of IRP
The first section of the book covers the historical background starting from partition in
1947 and will take the reader up to the current times. The mainstream chronology would be
followed. The first section will be divided into sub sections based on major events to make them
clearer. The second section will discuss the major issues between the two countries. The broad
spectrums of foreign policy adopted by both countries would also be discussed in this section. The
third section would give the recommendations/way forward after the conclusion.

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 Section 1

Historical Background and Major Events in the Relationship

1.1 Partition
The decision to create separate states for Muslims and Hindus in the sub-continent and the
subsequent end of rule of the British were taken after other options for a united country were
exhausted. At the time of partition in 1947, most of the Hindu population was to stay in areas under
India and most of Muslims would remain in Pakistan. Since, Sir Cyril Radcliffe, who on his first
ever visit in 1947 was given the task to divide the subcontinent, had just five weeks to decide the
contours of the borders. Thus, only a few efforts were made to limit violence and bloodshed
between Muslims and Hindus and tragically millions of refugees got affected on both sides of the
border2. The partition caused huge riots and destruction of property and as per an estimate over 2
million people got killed3. Women and Children, being the weakest of all, bore the brunt, got raped
and murdered. So, there were families on both sides, who have lost their loved ones to this hatred
and thus creating further rifts and bitterness.

1.2 First Kashmir War 1947-48

The formation of India and Pakistan after division of sub-continent was off course on the
basis of religion. However, there were more than 650 states, ruled by princes, in the sub-continent.
The rulers of these princely states could theoretically make a decision to join either India or
Pakistan but in reality, it was their population that decided its fate. Kashmir, because of its
proximity, could join either country. Maharaja Hari Singh, was Hindu, but the state was a Muslim
majority area. Going against the wishes of its people, Maharaja Hari Singh, decided to remain
neutral. To support the indigenous movement, Pakistan sent its tribesmen to Kashmir. Hari Singh
requested the government of India for military support and on the insistence of Indian government
signed the instrument of Accession. Indian forces moved in Kashmir and thus the first war between
India and Pakistan was fought in 1947-48. This matter was referred by India to the United Nations

2
www.mea.gov.in (accessed on 24 April 2018)
3
Roger D Long, The Founding Father: An Annotated Bibliography (Lanham: Scarecrow Press, 1998), 34-35.

4
on 1 January 1948 and the United Nations passed a resolution on 13 August 1948 for a ceasefire
and withdrawal of forces from Kashmir. The resolution further instructed to hold a “free and fair”
plebiscite in Kashmir after the withdrawal of forces. The United Nations Military Observer Group
on India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) was established in both countries to observe ceasefire under
UN auspices.

India has so far refused to move from its stated position that the accession of Kashmir is
non-negotiable, whereas Pakistan, basing on two nation theory, is of the view that Kashmir was
an unfinished agenda of the partition and the future of Kashmir should be decided by its people.
Resultantly, there was hardly any movement on the Kashmir issue.

1.3 Indus Water Treaty- 1960

This issue has also got its roots in the hastily arranged partition of the subcontinent. Mostly
believed that the Britishers, deliberately left flaws in the partition plan directly affecting the Indus
Basin. It was as early as in April 1948, when India stopped waters in the canals of West Panjab
because the headworks were in India. Although, an agreement was signed between Pakistan and
India in May 1948 but Pakistan had to sign it under duress as it had nothing to offer. Under this
agreement, India would release only sufficient waters for consumption of the Pakistan region in
lieu of cash payment by Pakistan. So soon after that, Pakistan denounced the May 1948 water
agreement and it was also a significant example of India’s bullying. Initially, Pakistan restarted its
negotiations with India on distribution of water resources but after three years of inconclusive
bilateral meetings, it was decided to use the good office of the World Bank. World Bank came up
with different ideas but it was finally agreed that the waters of Indus Basin be divided, while
leaving aside historic factors. It was thus decided that the waters of three western rivers i.e. Jhelum,
Chenab and Indus were to be allocated to Pakistan and the waters of three eastern rivers i.e. Ravi,
Beas and Sutlej will be used by India4. India also agreed to pay UK Pound Sterling 62,060,000
(UK Pound Sterling Sixty two Million and Sixty Thousand only) on account of construction of
two new headworks and canal system for irrigation. This amount was to be paid in ten equal
installments.

4
www.unesco.org.pk (accessed on 20 March 2018)

5
 Although there was strong opposition to Indus Water Treaty in India and Pakistan, but soon
sanity prevailed and the treaty was signed on 19th September 1960 in Karachi. Pandit Jawahar Lal
Nehru, Prime Minister of India flew to Pakistan for a five days official visit. This was one moment
in Pakistan-India relations, when most people were optimistic as this visit was on the backdrop of
settlement of water issue and progress was also made on the West Pakistan-Punjab-Rajasthan and
East Pakistan-Assam-West Bengal residual boundary issues (Raghavan 2017). The relations were
at their peak, sentiments were positive both in the official and private levels. Even the press was
not hostile and even the delegation that visited Pakistan along with Nehru observed that general
public greeted the Indian delegation.

But the visit could not break the impasse and although the Indus water Treaty was signed
no other development could take place. The opportunity created by the Indus water Treaty was
missed. It was probably due to insufficiently prepared summit that a lot was left for the leaders to
resolve. Rather, the goodwill created prior to the visit vanished and divergent positions on Kashmir
further hardened.

1.4 Indo-Pak War- 1965

It was in September 1965, when Indian forces attacked Pakistan mainly due to operation
Gibraltar launched by Pakistan in Indian Held Kashmir. Pakistan despite being a member of
SEATO and CENTO was not offered any help in this war and it fought the war all alone with its
own resources. The war lasted for seventeen days that caused massive casualties on both sides and
it was the largest engagement of armored vehicles especially tanks since the second world war. It
was the intervention by the United Nations and diplomatic interventions by the United States and
the Soviet Union that the ceasefire took place. The leadership of both countries settled their
differences in Tashkent in 1966. As per the Tashkent agreement, both countries would withdraw
from the occupied areas and take pre-war positions.

One of the major lesson learnt by Pakistan was to look for other alliances and to improve
its relations with other countries. Pakistan also ceased to be the member of Commonwealth and
other defense pacts.

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1.5 Indo-Pakistan War- 1971

1971 was the most tragic year for us. This being the third Indo-Pak war started on 21st
November 1971 after Pakistan was unable to resolve the political problem through political means.
The main issue arose when the federal government (West Pakistan), did not allow Sheikh Mujibur
Rahman to form government, whose party “Awami League” won the majority seats in 1970
parliamentary elections. There was widespread insurgency backed by India in the March of 1971;
Pakistan reacted swiftly and the situation was brought under control by May. Later again after
regrouping with four times the forces, the Indian army backed Mukhti Bahani, who attacked
Pakistani Armed Forces in Bangladesh in November1971. India also attacked the West Pakistan
at the Shakargarh sector. Pakistani army surrendered to the coordinated land, air and sea attack
from India and around90,000 Pakistani soldiers became PoW’s. The East Pakistan became
Bangladesh on 06 December 1971.

1.6 Shimla Agreement - 1972

After the defeat, as expected, it took long to normalize the relations. It was in July 1972,
when the Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi
held a bilateral meeting in Simla in 1972. Under the Simla agreement, India agreed to return all
Pakistani prisoners of war and in return Pakistan accepted the terms of settling the differences with
India through peaceful means by bilateral negotiations. Formal diplomatic and trade relations were
re-established in 1976.

1.7 Sharing of Nuclear Information- 1988

In the year 1988, both countries agreed not to attack each other's nuclear installations or
facilities. These included "nuclear power and research reactors, fuel fabrication, uranium
enrichment, isotopes separation and reprocessing facilities as well as any other installations with
fresh or irradiated nuclear fuel and materials in any form and establishments storing significant
quantities of radio-active materials".

The two sides unanimously agreed to share information on the latitudes and longitudes of
their nuclear installations. It was subsequently ratified, and both sides share this information on
yearly basis since then.

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1.8 Armed Resistance in Kashmir- 1989

India accused Pakistan of providing arms and training to freedom fighters in Kashmir in
1989. On the other hand, Pakistan responded that it offered only “moral and diplomatic” support.
It all actually started with the elections in Kashmir that took place in 1987. Farooq Abdullah, who
won the elections, was accused of massive rigging by the members of Muslim United Front
(MUF). The insurgency grew in the Kashmir valley in the absence of democracy and very few
employment opportunities for the growing youth. One of the MUF candidate, Muhammad Yousaf
Shah was not only defeated through cheating but also placed behind bars. He later became the
Syed Salahuddin, Chief of Militant group Hizb-ul-Mujahedin. While the other main leaders joined
hands to form the political group Jammu and Kashmir Liberation front (JKLF).

It was the time, when India implemented long curfews and numerous human rights
violations took place in Kashmir. On 01st March 1990, more than one million Kashmiris peacefully
protested but they were fired upon by the police and more than forty people got killed. That led to
massive protests by unarmed civilians in Srinagar.

This uprising in Kashmir was not directly initiated by Pakistan but because of its religious
emotions and geo-political realities, Pakistan provided support to Kashmiris. Pakistani government
as part of its foreign policy took up the issue of Kashmir at every available diplomatic forum and
raised the issue of human rights violations in Kashmir by the Indian occupied forces. Pakistan had
always stated that Kashmir dispute should be resolved in line with the United Nations Security
Council resolutions and in accordance with the wishes of the people of Kashmir. It was the long-
term aim of the government of Pakistan to support the movement of freedom of Kashmir. It was
also viewed that Pakistan helped the insurgents, just the way the Indians supported the Mukhti
Bahnis in 1971 that eventually led to dismemberment of Pakistan (Kux, 2001, p.305).

This instability in the Kashmir region frustrated India and it took further strenuous
measures against the general public, in addition to massively strengthening of its armed forces.
India also accused Pakistan and specifically Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan of its
direct involvement in Kashmir and called Kashmir uprising as its proxy war. Because of
continuous increase of forces on both sides of the border, there were incidents of cross border
violations including shelling/ firing etc. Like in 1990, India deployed a large number of troops

8
along the border and Pakistan sensing the danger, also moved its forces. The tensions were high
and the leaders from both sides made threatening statements. It was interventions by the US and
Russian governments that calmed the situation then.

1.9 Nuclear Tests - 1998

In May 1998, India detonated five nuclear tests at Pokhran and Pakistan responded with
six of their own in the same month in the Chaghai Hills. The two countries were slapped with the
international restrictions. But that never stopped them from carrying out long range missile tests
in the same year.

1.10 Lahore Visit - 1999

At the invitation of Pakistan Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif, Indian Prime Minister
Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Pakistan and met with his counterpart in Lahore. The two leaders
signed the Lahore Declaration, which was the first major agreement since 1972 between India and
Pakistan. The two leaders also agreed to honour the Simla Accord and announced a number of
additional “Confidence Building Measures”.

1.11 Kargil War- 1999

This was another hostile event in the relationship of the two countries. It was a defensive
strategy by Pakistan armed forces with the understanding of the political government but it went
wrong and became a full-fledged conflict. This conflict was on the Kargil sector, which was along
the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir. Although there were many agreements concerning the
border between the two countries like “Cease Fire Line” in 1948 and “Simla Agreement” in 1972,
but all these agreements had failed to address the issue comprehensively. All of these years India
had been violating the LOC like it captured territory in Siachen in 1984 and Qamar Sector (Neelum
Valley) in 1988.

Kargil War lasted for few weeks, with India ending up with more causalities. But Kargil
war derailed the peace process, which was initiated by Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
during his visit to Lahore.

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1.12 Tensions along LoC 2001-2003

In 2001, Kashmiri freedom fighters attacked the Kashmir Assembly at Srinagar in which
38 people got killed. Farooq Abdullah, then Chief Minister of Indian occupied Kashmir called the
Indian government to strike the alleged training camps inside Pakistan. Later in July 2001, Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf attended the Agra summit. He met Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari
Vajpayee, but the summit failed as the two sides could not come to a conclusion on the Kashmir
issue.

In December 2001, Indian parliament was attacked, which was blamed on Pakistan based
Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad. India moved its armed forces to the LoC and the
situation between the two nuclear neighbours remained tense till Oct 2002. The situation got
normalised with the intervention of the international mediation.

1.13 Relative Normalization-2004-08

This was the period of relative normalisation of relations, as in year 2004, President Pervez
Musharraf and Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee held talks on the side-lines of the 12th SAARC
Summit in Islamabad. The Composite Dialogue Process involving various senior officials from
both sides was initiated in 2004. India also reduced its troops in Kashmir on the basis of
improvement in the overall security situation. In September 2006, President Musharraf and Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to put in place an institutional anti-terrorism mechanism. In
2007, next round of Composite Dialogue Process and Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism (JATM)
was held. India joined the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan gas pipeline project in 2008.
The same year, Pakistan and India, agreed to open up several trade routes, however, limited to few
items only.

1.14 Mumbai Attacks - November 2008

On 26 November 2008, 10 armed gunmen attacked various places in Mumbai and killed
more than 160 people. Ajmal Kasab, the lone attacker captured during the operation, stated that
the attackers were the members of Lashkar-e-Taiba. As a result of the attacks, India totally broke
off the talks with Pakistan. The Pakistani government agreed to provide all possible assistance to

10
India in its investigations on Mumbai Attacks. It also ensured Indian government that plotters were
in no way supported by the Pakistan’s intelligence agencies.

Pakistan Prime Minster Yousuf Raza Gilani met with Indian Prime Minister Singh on the
side-lines of a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, but Indian side ruled
out the possibility of holding the next round of Composite Dialogue Process.

1.15 Recent Events - 2010-17

During the last 7-8 years, India had been adamant that negotiations could only start with
Pakistan in an environment free from terror. On the other hand, Pakistan, had on numerous
occasions, proposed to start negotiations with India on all issues without any pre-conditions. Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif visited New Delhi to congratulate his counterpart Prime Minister Narendra
Modi, on his inauguration in May 2014. PM Modi made a surprise visit to the city of Lahore and
attended the wedding of grand-daughter of PM Nawaz Sharif in December 2015. But despite the
above short visits, nothing substantive could come out of the meetings.

With the killing of Kashmiri freedom fighter, Burhan Wani, the situation in Kashmir
remained tense during this period. There were massive protests and in its crackdown, Indian
occupied forces used pellets guns and caused world’s mass blinding. As per Amnesty International
only in the month of May 2016, during these protests, more than 200 unarmed protestors were
killed and over 20,000 injured.

In the last 4 years i.e. since 2014, no dialogue could take place between the two countries.
On numerous occasions, the government of Pakistan had offered the resumption of dialogue,
however, India’s strategy under Prime Minister Modi had been to create an environment of
stalemate. India had been engaging with Pakistan but not in a discourse and little concessions were
offered. India had been propagating that Pakistan state is promoting terrorism and also not
cooperating in the trial on the Mumbai attacks.

Pakistan strongly feel that India is not keen to resolve the core issue of Jammu and
Kashmir. They intend to use the dialogue process to focus on terrorism without showing any
flexibility on other impending issues.

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 Section –2

Pakistan-India Other Disputes

2.1 Sir Creek

The Pakistan-India boundary in the Rann of Kutch was demarcated by a tribunal in 1969,
but it did not take up 100 km stretch of Sir Creek as it was already delimited by the British Indian
government in 1914. The annexed map showed the sir creek on the Sindh side and neither side
contested the fact before the tribunal in 1969. India, later on the basis of maritime resources, laid
a claim on the Sir Creek first and then said that a boundary may run through its middle as it was
navigable channel. This changed position of India, significantly reduced the area of Pakistan’s
economic zone.

Pakistan asked for negotiations but India conveyed that it would first survey the area. The
surveyors general of the two countries met in 1989 but could not come to a conclusion as India
disregarded the 1914 resolution map. Since then both countries have laid claim on the area and
stalemate has resulted in the arrest of hundreds of fishermen from both sides on the charges of
trespass. Also in 1999, India shot down Pakistan Naval Atlantique Aircraft, killing all its crew.

2.2 Siachen
Siachen Glacier is in Baltistan, which is difficult to access and inhospitable, therefore, no
fighting took place here in any of the three wars between India and Pakistan. After cessation of
hostilities on 27 July 1949, the two countries agreed on a ceasefire line which terminated at point
NJ 9842, on the map, which was almost 100 kilometers south of Karakorum watershed. Pakistan
maintained its presence till the Karakorum Pass. This continued till the early 1980’s, when India
started sending its patrols to the Siachen area. 1984, India sent a brigade size force and occupied a
part of Siachen Glacier, a move which was a clear violation of Simla Agreement. In response,
Pakistan also sent its troops and halted the advance of Indian troops. Since then, this has been the
highest battlefield in the world and both countries have been losing men more to frostbite and other
illnesses.

12
 Of all the issues between the two countries, the Siachen issue is the most amenable to
solution. In 1989, both sides led by Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Ghandi actually
arrived at a solution, which was redeployment of forces in accordance with the Simla Agreement.
But differences arose and it could not be implemented.

2.3 Salal, Wuller and Baglihar Projects

The two counties have agreed under the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 that run of the river
power projects could be constructed but dams cannot be constructed on the Western rivers in
excess of the prescribed limits. Moreover, India was obliged under the treaty to provide the
relevant data to Pakistan concerning any project that interfere with the flow of the western rivers.
Pakistan if it feels that the magnitude of the dam is in violation of the treaty, as a first step, can
raise the issue in the permanent Indus Commission. If permanent Indus Commission could not find
a solution then the issue could be discussed at the government’s level. If still they fail to find a
solution, either side can refer it to the World Bank, who would appoint a neutral expert, whose
decision would be final and binding on both parties. Four such issues have arisen since 1960.

India decided in 1970’s to build a dam at Salal on Chenab River. The Indus Commission
could not address the issue, however, the Indian government agreed to reduce the height of the
dam to alleviate Pakistan’s concerns regarding flow of water.

Then in early 1980’s India initiated construction of a barrage on Jehlum river at the Wuller
Lake, for the purpose of storage. Finding it thirty-three times in excess of the prescribed limits,
Pakistan raised it in the commission in 1985. In 1987, Pakistan asked India to discontinue
construction. After some delay, India suspended work, but later argued that it could be of mutual
benefit. Pakistan declined to negotiate on those lines as this would challenge the sanctity of the
treaty. The two sides then exchanged drafts for altered plan, but no agreement could be reached.
The project was suspended after the uprising in Kashmir in 1989.

India then decided to construct a dam at Baglihar upstream from the Salal dam. The water
reservoir was much more than the prescribed limit and this would give ability to India to stop water
for 28 days of the wheat plantation period or open the gates to cause flash floods. Initially India
refused to share the details of the project. Pakistan carried out the negotiations at the level of

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experts at the level of Indus Commissioners from 2001 to 2004, but could not find a solution.
Pakistan also offered to continue with the bilateral negotiation provided India halt the construction
work. By 2005, Pakistan referred the matter to the World Bank. The neutral expert advised India
certain modifications in the design of the plant but allowed India to retain the sluice spillway
(Laffite 2007).

2.4 Pakistan Foreign Policy

Foreign Policy is basically any government’s strategy in dealing with other countries and
this strategy is primarily based on its national interests. Foreign Policy covers all issues such as
economy, trade, diplomacy, science, education and culture etc. Foreign Policy has evolved
considerably over a period of time and covered a spectrum of issues. Time has also taught us that
states are rational not emotional actors, while discussing foreign policy. So, Foreign Policy is most
importunately reflection of country’s internal situation and secondly foreign policy should never
be static or rigid. So, for a successful foreign policy states have neither permanent friends nor
everlasting enemies. Thus, foreign policy changes with situation within the country’s long, mid
and short-term objectives. Then states do not function in vacuum rather they perform their duties
as members of larger community.

2.5 Principles of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

The founding father of the country, Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, gave the vision
and principles of the foreign policy of Pakistan:

“Our foreign policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards all the nations of the world.
We do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation. We believe in the principle
of honesty and fair play in national and international dealings and are prepared to make our
utmost contribution to the promotion of peace and prosperity among the nations of the world.
Pakistan will never be found lacking in extending its material and moral support to the oppressed
and suppressed peoples of the world, and in upholding the principles of the United Nations
Charter.”

Article 40 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan also outlined a number
of principles that shall guide Pakistan’s foreign policy for all times to come. This article states that:

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 “The State shall endeavour to preserve and strengthen fraternal relations among Muslim
countries based on Islamic unity, support the common interests of the people of Asia, Africa and
Latin America, promote international peace and security, foster goodwill and friendly relations
among all nations and encourage the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means.”

So, if we take guidance from the above two sources, we can outline the foreign policy
objectives of Pakistan as under:

a. To safeguard national security, territorial integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan;

b. protect economic interests abroad;
c. projection of Pakistan as a progressive, modern and democratic Islamic state;
d. promote peace, stability and friendly relations with all neighbours including India and
Afghanistan;
e. raise the issue of Kashmir at all forums;
f. develop cordial and friendly relations with the Muslim countries;
g. fulfil the responsibilities as a responsible member of the international community; and
h. protect the interest of Pakistani community abroad.

2.6 Pakistan Foreign Policy Towards India

In the earlier section, I have discussed Pak-India relations in the chronological order
explaining the contours of relations with emphasis on highs and lows. This relationship is of a
connect, disconnect and reconnect with very little forward movement. Rather, it’s more like a
stationary cyclical movement. Both countries had been involved in number of wars and likewise
number of rounds of dialogue. However, relationship could not progress much in the spheres of
trade and economy. Diplomacy had only been able to focus to avert bigger crisis and the major
issues could not be resolved till to date.

India has grown tremendously in the 21st century and enjoys considerable diplomatic clout
in the world. India may soon become a member of the elite nuclear group and its relations with the
USA and China are improving with every passing day.

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 The fact remains the same that Pakistan’s foreign Policy towards India will remain to be
guided by the security concerns originating not only from the eastern borders but also from the
western as well. So, Pakistan has to be vigilant and develop minimum deterrence in addition to the
development of diplomacy for raising the most important issue of Kashmir at all available forums.
Opportunities are to be explored to enhance trade, culture and people to people contacts etc.

Pakistan should proactively use diplomacy for settlement of its longstanding issues with
India. However, appeasement should not be an option. However, India has not been responding
well to the goodwill gestures of Pakistan, rather the government of Modi had been exerting
pressure to isolate Pakistan globally. The events of the last few years tell us that India would
pressure Pakistan to soften stance on Kashmir and other issues. India would off course desire
acceptance of its regional hegemony and position on Kashmir. On the other hand, Pakistan need
to stay firm and bring all the issues to the table for discussion including the core issue of Kashmir.

The second most important consideration for us is to reduce Indian influence in

Afghanistan. It may not be that straight forward or simple, rather would require a combination of
efforts with the aim to bring normalization of relations with Afghanistan and reduction of Indian
influence. The most important goal at the moment is to minimize the threat emanating from the
eastern border. India, during the last few years, by investing heavily in Afghanistan has created an
Indian lobby in the political and defence establishment of Afghanistan. Pakistan need to skilfully
gain the confidence of the political elite of Afghanistan, which can only be done if there is stability
in Afghanistan and trade and commercial activities are enhanced with Pakistan.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi relations may not return to normalcy soon. As is
evident from the last three years in office, India has been active in isolating Pakistan, propagating
against China –Pakistan Economic Corridor, continuous ceasefire violations and interference in
Baluchistan and FATA. Indian National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, Ajit Doval, has
on numerous occasions threatened of exploiting Pakistan’s internal problems for its advantages.
So this is not the time to give any further concession to India. Pakistan, it seems is finally winning
its war against terrorism and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor can be the economic game
changer. These developments can make Pakistan stronger and negotiations can be initiated with
India.

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 Section-3

Conclusion

The two countries have chequered history and there is not much optimism in the current
circumstances. Three major wars in the last 70 years and various border skirmishes along LoC and
the working boundary have added to the mistrust. Diplomatic efforts during 1947-2018 could not
resolve the major issues. The Indian Government had said that there had to be a conducive
environment and an atmosphere free of terror for talks to resume with Pakistan (Press Trust of
India: 10 Nov 2017). Pakistan already has enough evidence of Indian involvement in sponsoring
terrorism in Baluchistan. Earlier in June 2015, Indian Prime Minister Modi, on an official visit to
Bangladesh, accepted Indian hand in the beak-up of East Pakistan in 1971. India has also shown
its clear opposition to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

However, a vast majority on both sides of the border is in favour of peace and restoration
of trade ties. According to a Gilani Research Foundation Survey carried out by Gallup & Gilani
Pakistan, almost 66 % of population in both India and Pakistan are optimistic about establishing
peaceful relations with the other country. BJP’s coalition partner PDP in the state of Jammu and
Kashmir has candidly expressed its desire for better relationship between India and Pakistan.
Business community is another active group working actively for improvement of trade and
economic relations. The leadership of the two countries are also aware of the needs of its business
community and vast opportunities available across the border.

Apart from the above stated bilateral factors, world powers, like US, China and Russia all
have their interests in the region and would profoundly affect the two countries in the future. They
will not only have a military and political presence but would be an economic and intellectual
force as well.

The two countries cannot avoid each other as they say that you can choose your friends but
not your neighbours. Some feel that the future of India –Pakistan relations lies in the past. We can
surely draw some lessons, but what seems old to the relationship is quite new. All major India-
Pakistan issues from Kashmir to western rivers, bilateral trade, terrorism etc. have changed
drastically and therefore need innovative solutions. Kashmir uprising of 1979 was different from

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the uprising on the death of Burhan Wani. Trade normalization is even more difficult in current
circumstances than before. The issues of climate change, water scarcity and demands of
hydroelectricity are challenging the water sharing formula under Indus Water Treaty. At the
moment resumption of an all-inclusive dialogue is most important, which is only possible if India
can get rid of its superiority complex and abandons the hegemonic designs.

3.1 Recommendations

General

The most important step is to put our own house in order. We need to prioritize i.e. law and
order, economy, political unity etc. All the state organs/ institutions need to be strengthened.
Spending on education and health should be increased. Appropriate measures for improvement in
the law and order situation and economic conditions within the country should be taken.

Then on account of foreign affairs, a proactive and robust foreign policy involving all
segments of the society may be formulated. The policy should have a strong political narrative.
We may continue to improve relations with all countries including our neighbours as well.

Pakistan with its own resources has been winning the war against terrorism. Pakistan needs
to effectively use its media and its diplomatic missions abroad to project its sacrifices in its fight
against terrorism.

India Specific

Pakistan, without abandoning courtesy and high moral ground, should not show any
eagerness for negotiations. We may make it clear that Pakistan is ready for negotiations once India
feels confident to discuss all issues including the core issue of Kashmir.

The economic relations should dominate our overall relations with India. We can take
example of China and India; both countries have numerous disputes and level of distrust is also
high at the official and political level, but the two countries are one of the largest trade partners
with bilateral trade crossing almost US $ 85 Billion.

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 It has been recently reported that once dormant Track-II initiative – the Neemrana Dialogue
– held a meeting in Islamabad in April 2018. Such initiatives play a significant role in improving
relations between the two countries and therefore more regular meetings may be scheduled.

Pakistan should not involve itself in any arms race with India but needs to maintain a
minimum deterrence policy.

Through effective implementation of National Action Plan (NAP) and other counter
terrorism actions, India’s efforts to support terrorist activities in Pakistan should be proactively
countered.

The two countries need to discard their aggressive security doctrines to lessen the chances
of a nuclear war.

A joint mechanism may be established to address the issue of terrorism and non-state
actors. A Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism as established earlier may be revived.

Indus Basin Treaty should be respected in totality and all water related issues should be
resolved through the mechanism provided under the Indus Basin Treaty.

More confidence building measures in military, political and economic fields may be taken
to reduce the trust deficit. On the military side, it is most crucial to undertake relevant steps for
Conflict Avoidance Measures (CAMs) and then to move to Confidence Building Measures
(CBMs). In the current scenario of tensions between the two countries, CBMs can play a
significant contribution for creating an environment for the resolution of problems to move
forward.

Pakistan has already made it clear not only to India but also to the international world that
India’s deep interest in Afghanistan is detrimental to its interests. There is also enough evidence
that India has been using the Afghan soil for sponsoring terrorism inside Pakistan. India should
understand Pakistan’s concerns in Afghanistan and address them.

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