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Calibration Event
Introduce a known event with established probability or
severity to ‘calibrate’ probability estimates, i.e. risk of
death due to car accident during commute to work over 25
year working life.
Probability bins (over service life)
IDLog Description Individual Fleet/Inventory AIAA Combinatorial Hazard Risk Index Matrix
Threshold probability
C4 Occasional Unlikely but can Will occur several > 8 X 10 -4 3 X 10- 3 D3 (Remote) 19(4) 16(5) 12(6) 7(7)
reasonably expect to times in the fleets life.
occur in life of item
E2 (Improbable) 20(3) 18(4) 15(5) 11(6)
D3 Remote Unlikely but possible Unlikely but can > 8 X 10 -5 3 X 10 -4 F1 (Impossible) 21(2) 21(3) 21(4) 21(5)
in life of item. reasonably expect to
occur in life of fleet. MIL-STD-882C risk acceptance curves corrected to log scale
E2 Improbable So unlikely it may not Unlikely but possible in > 8 X 10 -6 3 X 10 -5 Risk treatment
be experienced in life life of fleet.
of item
Risk Risk treatment Decision
F1 Impossible Virtually impossible So unlikely it may not > 8 X 10 -7 3 X 10 -6 Zone maker
to occur. be experienced in life
of fleet
1-6 Intolerable risk must be ---
Corrected MIL-STD-882C example probability definitions with log scale and AIAA/SETC threshold and combinatorial probability index, fleet numbers reduced.
Will affect cumulative risk and should be used to calibrate likelihood.
High