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Socio-Economic Impact of
Proposed Restoration of South
Peace Northern Caribou Ranges

May 10, 2019

Prepared for:

Peace River Regional District

Prepared by:

Stantec Consulting Ltd.

May 30, 2019


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Sign-off Sheet

This document entitled Socio-Economic Impact of Proposed Restoration of South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges was
prepared by Stantec Consulting Ltd. (“Stantec”) for the account of Peace River Regional District (the “Client”). Any
reliance on this document by any third party is strictly prohibited. The material in it reflects Stantec’s professional
judgment in light of the scope, schedule and other limitations stated in the document and in the contract between Stantec
and the Client. The opinions in the document are based on conditions and information existing at the time the document
was published and do not take into account any subsequent changes. In preparing the document, Stantec did not verify
information supplied to it by others. Any use which a third party makes of this document is the responsibility of such third
party. Such third party agrees that Stantec shall not be responsible for costs or damages of any kind, if any, suffered by it
or any other third party as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this document.

Prepared by

(signature)

Stephen Roberts, B.Comm., MREM

Reviewed by

(signature)

Frank Bohlken, B.Sc., MRM

Approved by

(signature)

Marie-Eve Clayton, P.Eng., MBA

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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ I

ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................................... V

GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................. VII

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1

2.0 BASELINE CONDITIONS .............................................................................................. 1


2.1 PRRD DEMOGRAPHICS AND LABOUR FORCE .......................................................... 1
2.2 MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER RESOURCES IN BC ........................................................ 5
2.3 FORT ST. JOHN AND DAWSON CREEK TIMBER SUPPLY AREAS, AND
TREE FARM LICENSE 48.............................................................................................. 5
2.3.1 Timber Harvesting Land Base ........................................................................9
2.3.2 Current Mature Merchantable Land Base .....................................................12
2.3.3 Volume and Value of Harvested Timber .......................................................15
2.3.4 Delivered Wood Costs..................................................................................17
2.3.5 Economic CMM Land Base ..........................................................................18
2.3.6 Wood Product Manufacturing .......................................................................22

3.0 TACTICAL RESTORATION PLAN FOR THE SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN


CARIBOU RANGES .....................................................................................................23

4.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...........................................................................27


4.1 ESTIMATE OF REDUCTIONS TO AAC, AND AAC UTILIZATION ................................27
4.1.1 Reductions to CMM and ECMM Land Base .................................................27
4.1.2 Adjusted AACs, Utilization of Adjusted AACs, and Value of Delivered
Wood ...........................................................................................................29
4.2 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE FORESTRY AND LOGGING SUBSECTOR .................30
4.2.1 Employment and Labour Income..................................................................30
4.2.2 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues ....................... 31
4.3 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE WOOD PRODUCT MANUFACTURING
SUBSECTOR ................................................................................................................33
4.3.1 Wood Product Manufacturing .......................................................................33
4.3.2 Employment and Labour Income..................................................................35
4.3.3 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues ....................... 36

5.0 CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................................38

6.0 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................39

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 Local Resident Employment (Persons), by Sector and Subsector....................... 4
Table 2-2 Annual Average Employment Income, by Sector and Subsector......................... 4
Table 2-3 Current FSJTSA, DCTSA, and TFL 48 Apportionments ...................................... 6
Table 2-4 Current FSJTSA and DCTSA Commitments ....................................................... 7
Table 2-5 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB ........................................................................ 9
Table 2-6 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and CMM Land Base .....................................12
Table 2-7 Weighted-Average 2018 Delivered Wood Costs, FSJTSA and DCTSA/
TFL 48 ...............................................................................................................18
Table 2-8 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and ECMM Land Base ..................................19
Table 2-9 Mills Operating with the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 ........................................22
Table 2-10 Inflation-Adjusted Value of Select Manufactured Wood Products in BC .............23
Table 3-1 Caribou Restoration Polygon Area from Preliminary Tactical Restoration
Plan ...................................................................................................................24
Table 4-1 Adjusted CMM Land Base .................................................................................28
Table 4-2 Adjusted ECMM Land Base ...............................................................................29
Table 4-3 Comparison of AAC between Base Case and Moratorium case in
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 .............................................................................30
Table 4-4 Economic Impacts - Employment and Labour Income .......................................31
Table 4-5 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues .............................32
Table 4-6 Forest Products Manufacturing Scenarios..........................................................34
Table 4-7 Economic Impacts - Employment and Labour Income .......................................35
Table 4-8 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues .............................37

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Employment by Industry, PRRD (2011 & 2016) .................................................. 3
Figure 2-2 FSJTSA, DCTSA, TFL 48 and PRRD Administrative Boundaries ....................... 8
Figure 2-3 FSJTSA THLB ...................................................................................................10
Figure 2-4 DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB ........................................................................................11
Figure 2-5 FSJTSA CMM ....................................................................................................13
Figure 2-6 DCTSA/TFL 48 CMM .........................................................................................14
Figure 2-7 FSJTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC ..............................15
Figure 2-8 DCTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC................................16
Figure 2-9 TFL 48 Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC ................................17
Figure 2-10 FSJTSA ECMM .................................................................................................20
Figure 2-11 DCTSA/TFL 48 ECMM.......................................................................................21
Figure 3-1 Proposed Northern Caribou Habitat Recovery Areas and FJSTSA CMM ...........25
Figure 3-2 Proposed Northern Caribou Habitat Recovery Areas and DCTSA/TFL 48
CMM ..................................................................................................................26

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LIST OF APPENDICES

ESTIMATING CMM AND DELIVERED WOOD COSTS ............................ A.1


A.1 Current Mature Merchantable Land Base .................................................................... A.1
A.2 Delivered Wood Costs ................................................................................................. A.2
A.2.1 Administration and planning ....................................................................... A.2
A.2.2 Road construction and road management .................................................. A.2
A.2.3 Logging and on-site processing.................................................................. A.3
A.2.4 Trucking ..................................................................................................... A.3
A.2.5 Cycle time .................................................................................................. A.3
A.2.6 Silviculture.................................................................................................. A.4
A.2.7 Camp costs ................................................................................................ A.5
A.3 References .................................................................................................................. A.6

ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS ..................................... B.1


B.1 Economic CMM ........................................................................................................... B.1
B.2 Overlap between CMM and ECMM Land Bases and Proposed Caribou Recovery
Areas ........................................................................................................................... B.1
B.3 Adjusted ACC .............................................................................................................. B.1
B.4 Economic Impact Assessment ..................................................................................... B.1
B.4.1 Forestry and Logging Subsector ................................................................ B.1
B.4.2 Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector .................................................... B.2

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Executive Summary

Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) was retained by the Peace River Regional District (PRRD) to complete an
economic impact assessment of the proposed Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern
Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) prepared for the British Columbia (BC) Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource
Operations and Rural Development (FLNRORD) on the forestry and logging and wood product manufacturing within
the PRRD. The scope of the assessment includes: Assessment of economic impacts resulting from estimated
utilization levels of reduced allowable annual cuts (AACs) compared to full utilization of the current AAC within the
Fort St. John Timber Supply Area (FSJTSA) and the Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area (DCTSA), and Tree Farm
License 48 (TFL 48).

Forestry

The FSJTSA and DCTSA fall within the Peace Natural Resource District (DPC) of FLNRORD’s Northeast Forest
Region (Province of British Columbia [PBC] 2018a). Combined, the FSJTSA and DCTSA cover an area of
approximately 6.9 million hectares (FSJTSA 4.6 million, DCTSA 2.3 million hectares) and encompass the
communities of Fort St. John, Trutch, Pink Mountain, Taylor, Chetwynd, Dawson Creek, Hudson’s Hope, and
Tumbler Ridge (PBC 2018b, 2018c). The current AAC in the FSJTSA is 2,115,000 m3 (1,200,000 m3 conventional,
915,000 m3 deciduous leading stands), effective May 10, 2018 (PBC 2018b, BC FLNRORD 2018c). The current AAC
in the DCTSA is 1,860,000 m3, effective October 30, 2014 (BC FLNROROD 2018d). The current AAC in TFL 48 is
1,550,000 m3. This reflects a short-term (2015 – 2020) increase in the AAC to allow for removal of mountain pine
beetle affected wood. The AAC for TFL 48 will drop to 871,000 m3 after 2020 (BC FLNRORD 2015).

Each timber supply area (TSA) contains productive forest land known as the Crown Forest Land Base (CFLB);
however, only a subset of the CFLB is both available and feasible to harvest. The area that is estimated to be
available and feasible to harvest is termed the Timber Harvesting Land Base (THLB). Based on the analysis
completed for this project, there is 1,185,356 ha of THLB in the FSJTSA and 1,216,740 ha of THLB in the DCTSA.

The THLB includes forest stands (represented spatially as polygons) that range in age from recently cut and planted
areas to old-growth stands. The Current Mature Merchantable (CMM) land base is intended to represent timber that
is ready to be harvested now or in the short-term. The total volume of timber within the CMM land base for both the
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 is estimated at 438 million m3.

Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 1,800,000 m3 of timber was harvested from the FSJTSA
representing an 85% annual average utilization of the AAC (2,115,000 m3). Within the DCTSA, an annual average of
roughly 1,500,000 m3 of timber was harvested between 2015 and 2017 representing an 81% annual average
utilization of the AAC (1,860,000 m3). Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 900,000 m3 of timber
was harvested from TFL 48 representing an 59% annual average utilization of the AAC (1,550,000 m3). After 2020,
the harvest volume in TFL 48 will decline, relative to 2018 volumes, because the AAC will be adjusted to 871,000 m3.

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There are four mills operating in both the FSJTSA and DCTSA. The Paper Excellence BTMP deciduous pulp mill in
Chetwynd is currently non-operational; however, processing could restart late 2018 (Stantec 2018; IFS 2018). In total,
the FSJTSA has an estimated capacity of 492 million board feet of lumber, 660 million square feet (3/8” basis) of
oriented strand board (OSB), and 60,000 tonnes of wood pellets. The DCTSA/TFL48 has an estimated total capacity
of 532 million board feet of lumber, 345 million square feet (3/8” basis) of OSB, and 88,000 tonnes of wood pellets.

The forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing subsector provide substantial employment and
economic impacts (i.e., contribute to GDP and government revenues) to the communities within the PRRD. Together,
operations in FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 are estimated to contribute $1.1 billion in provincial GDP, 4,160 PYs of
employment, and $50 million in federal and $76 million in provincial government revenues (Base Case).

Table ES-1 Estimated Annual Economic Impacts Under the Base Case Scenario –
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48

Wood Products Manufacturing


Base Case (FSJTSA) Base Case (DCTSA/TFL 48)
Provincial GDP (millions) $530 $500
Employment (PYs) 2,130 2,870
Federal Tax Revenue (millions) $24.4 $21
Provincial Tax Revenue (millions) $32.0 $35

While government-mandated caribou protection measures for the South Peace region have yet to be finalized, a
Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) has been
developed. This plan identifies initial restoration polygons and proposes caribou habitat management measures, to
serve as a basis for consultation on caribou protection within the region. Assuming that resource extraction activities
are prohibited within these initial restoration polygons (the Moratorium Scenario), it is estimated that the FSJTSA
AAC would need to be reduced by 4% to 2.0 million m3 while the DCTSA/TFL48 AAC would need to be reduced by
29.7% to 1.9 million m3 (“adjusted” AACs) because of the reduction in the CMM land base.

Because no changes in baseline harvest volumes are estimated under the Moratorium Scenario for the FSJTSA, no
changes in economic impacts are estimated. Economic impacts under the Moratorium Scenario and percent
reductions relative to the Base Case for the DCTSA/TFL48 are summarized in Table ES-2.

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Table ES-2 Estimated Annual Economic Impacts in DCTSA/TFL 48 – Base Case and
Moratorium Case

Wood Products Manufacturing


Percent (%) Change from
Base Case Moratorium Case Base Case
Provincial GDP (millions) $500 $430 14.0%
Employment (PYs) 1,650 1,425 13.6%
Federal Tax Revenue (millions) $21 $18 13.4%
Provincial Tax Revenue (millions) $35 $28 20.9%

Under the Moratorium Scenario wood products manufacturing in DCTSA/TFL 48 would experience a 14.0%
reduction in provincial GDP, compared to the Base Case, a 13.6% reduction in employment, and a 13.4% and 20.9%
reduction in federal and provincial government revenue. Due to the location of existing mills within the DCTSA/TFL48
(i.e., largely within and near Chetwynd), reductions in available timber, AACs, and harvesting and manufacturing
output would have an adverse effect within Chetwynd. Conversations with forestry companies in the region has
suggested that proposed caribou management measures could result in the closure of at least one mill in the region.

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Abbreviations

AAC Allowable Annual Cuts

BC British Columbia

BCTS British Columbia Timber Sales

BTMP Bleached Thermos-Mechanical Pulp

Canfor Canadian Forest Product Ltd

CMM Current Mature Merchantable

DCTSA Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area

ECMM Economic Current Mature Merchantable

FSJTSA Fort St. John Timber Supply Area

GDP Gross Domestic Product

IFS Industrial Forest Services Ltd.

FLNRORD Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resources Operations and Rural


Development

NRRD Northern Rockies Regional District

NRRDCD NRRD Census Division

NRRM Northern Rockies Regional Municipality

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OSB Oriented Strand Board

PY Person-Year

RRA Resource Review Areas

SCIPIOM Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output Model

TFL Tree Farm License

THLB Timber Harvesting Land Base

TSA Timber Supply Area

TSL Timber Sale License

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Glossary

Capital expenditures Capital expenditures refer to funds used to undertake new projects or
investments as well as funds used to acquire or upgrade physical assets
(e.g., property, buildings, or equipment).

Direct effect Direct effects measure the initial requirements for an extra dollar's worth of
output of a given industry. The direct effect on the output of an industry is a
$1 change in output to meet the change of $1 dollar in final demand.
Associated with this change, there will also be direct effects on GDP, jobs,
and imports.”

Gross domestic product (GDP) The total unduplicated value of goods and services produced in the
economic territory of a country or region during a given period and provides
information about the size of an economy. In this report, it is calculated as
GDP by Production. The production, or value added, approach to estimating
GDP is calculated as the difference between an industry’s output and its
intermediate consumption is its gross value added.

Indirect effect A measure of change due to inter-industry purchases as they respond to the
new demands of the directly affected industries. This includes all the chain
reaction of output up the production stream as each of the products
purchased will require, in turn, the production of various inputs.”

Induced effect A measure of the change in the production of goods and services in
response to consumer expenditures induced by households' incomes (i.e.,
wages) generated by the production of the direct and indirect requirements.

Input-output Industry Classification A variant of the North American Industry Classification System that is used
by Statistics Canada System of National Accounts and includes input-out
tables, national and provincial multipliers, and Statistics Canada
Interprovincial Input-Output Model, among others.

National and provincial multipliers From Statistics Canada, these multipliers are derived from input-output
tables and are used to assess the effects on the economy of an exogenous
change in final demand for the output of a given industry. Multipliers provide
a measure of the interdependence between an industry and the rest of the
economy. Multipliers show the direct, indirect, and induced effects on gross
output, the detailed components of GDP, jobs, and imports. The provincial
multipliers show the direct, and indirect effects.

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North American Industry Formally adopted in 1997 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States
Classification System (against the backdrop of the North American Free Trade Agreement),
provides a common statistical framework and definition of the industrial
structure of these countries. The Canadian version of this system is
managed by Statistics Canada and is comprised of sectors, subsectors,
industry groups, and industries.

Person Year (PY) A unit of measurement used to describe the amount of work done by an
individual throughout the entire year (based on an ideal amount of work per
day). For this analysis, a person year is equal to 2,080 hours.

Statistics Canada Interprovincial From Statistics Canada, this model is based on input-out tables, and is used
Input-Output Model (SCIPIOM) to simulate the economic impact on the business sector of an expenditure
(‘shock’) on a given set of goods and services or the output of one of several
industries. The model simulates direct and indirect impacts, including the
number of jobs created, indirect taxes and subsidies generated, and GDP
(among others).

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Introduction
May 14, 2019

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) was retained by the Peace River Regional District (PRRD) to complete an
economic impact assessment of the proposed Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern
Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) prepared for the British Columbia (BC) Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource
Operations and Rural Development (FLNRORD) on the forestry and logging, and wood product manufacturing within
the PRRD. The scope of the assessment includes:

• Assessment of economic impacts resulting from estimated utilization levels of reduced allowable annual cuts
(AACs) compared to full utilization of the current AAC within the Fort St. John Timber Supply Area (FSJTSA)
the Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area (DCTSA), and Tree Farm License 48 (TFL 48). The DCTSA and TFL 48
are assessed collectively as DCTSA/TFL 48.
• Assessment of economic impacts on downstream wood product manufacturing within the FSJTSA and
DCTSA/TFL 48 based on estimated utilization level of reduced AACs under a Moratorium Scenario compared
to an assumed Base Case Scenario

To complete the forestry sector assessment, baseline information on the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48, including
estimates of the current mature merchantable (CMM) land base and economic CMM (ECMM) land base within the
timber harvesting land base (THLB), estimates of delivered wood costs, summary information on current forestry,
logging, and wood product manufacturing operations, and an overview of economic, demographic, and labour force
conditions are provided.

2.0 BASELINE CONDITIONS

This section provides baseline information on the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 including estimates of the CMM and
ECMM land bases, estimates of delivered wood costs, summary information on current forestry, logging, and wood
product manufacturing operations, and an overview of economic, demographic, and labour force conditions.

2.1 PRRD DEMOGRAPHICS AND LABOUR FORCE


The PRRD was established in 1987 through the division of the former Peace River-Liard Regional District (PRRD
2018a). The PRRD encompasses seven municipalities (District of Chetwynd [Chetwynd], City of Dawson Creek
[Dawson Creek], City of Fort St. John [Fort St. John], District of Hudson’s Hope [Hudson’s Hope], Village of Pouce
Coupe [Pouce Coupe], District of Taylor [Taylor], and the District of Tumbler Ridge [Tumbler Ridge]), seven First
Nations (Blueberry River First Nations, Area B; Doig River First Nation, Area B; Halfway River First Nation, Area B;
Kwadacha First Nation, Area B; Saulteau First Nations, Area E; Tsay Keh Bene Band, Area B; and West Moberly
First Nations, Area E), as well as four unincorporated regional district electoral areas (Electoral Area B, Electoral Area
C, Electoral Area D, and Electoral Area E) encompassing 46 named areas 1.

1 Electoral Area B (Altona, Buick, Cecil Lake, Clayhurst, Clearview, Flatrock, Goodlow, Montney, North Pine,
Osborn, Pink Mountain, Prespatou, Rose Prairie, Sikanni Chief, Trtch, Upper Cache, Upper Halfway, Wonowon),

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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

In 2016, the population of the PRRD was estimated at 62,942 persons, up 4.8% from 2011. Approximately 15.3% of
the population of the PRRD identified as being Aboriginal in 2016. Comparatively, the population of BC increased
5.6% between 2016 and 2011 (to 4,648,055 persons) with only 5.9% of the population identifying as Aboriginal.

In 2016, an estimated 48,325 persons within the PRRD were of working age (persons aged 15 years and older). Of
this, 35,175 persons were considered part of the labour force (representing a labour force participation rate of
72.8%). Of those persons comprising the labour force, 30,925 persons were employed (equaling an employment rate
of 64.0%) and 4,250 persons were unemployed (equaling an unemployment rate of 12.1%). Compared to the
provincial average, the PRRD had a greater participation rate (provincial average of 63.9%), lower employment rate
(provincial average of 59.6%), and a higher unemployment rate (provincial average of 6.7%).

Employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, construction, and retail trade accounted for the greatest
percentage of employment in the PRRD in 2011 and 2016 accounting for 35.4% and 33.0% of the labour force
(employed), respectively (Figure 2-1). While employment in these three industries accounted for the greatest
percentage of employed persons, employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction saw the largest
decrease in employment, dropping 17.6% between 2011 and 2016. This was followed by public changes in public
administration (-17.4% in arts and entertainment, and -15.8% in recreation). The greatest increase in employment
was seen in administrative and support, and waste management and remediation services at 51.8%, followed by
manufacturing at 30.3%.

Electoral Area C (Baldonnel, Charlie Lake, Clairmont, Grandhaven, Old Fort, Two Rivers), Electoral Area D
(Arras, Bessborough, Cutbank, Doe River, Farmington, Kelly Lake, Kilkerran, One Island Lake, Rolla, Tomslake,
Tower Lake, Tupper), and Electoral Ara E (East Pine, Groundbirch, Hasler Creek, Jackfish, Lone Prairie,
McLeod, Moberly Lake, Pine Valley, Progress, Sunset Prairie) (PRRD 2018b).

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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

14.0% 100.0%

Percent Change (2011-2016)


12.0% 80.0%
Percent of Employment

10.0% 60.0%

8.0% 40.0%

6.0% 20.0%

4.0% 0.0%

2.0% -20.0%

0.0% -40.0%

NAICS Classification
2011 Percent 2016 Percent Percent Change

SOURCE: Statistics Canada 2017a

Figure 2-1 Employment by Industry, PRRD (2011 & 2016)

Local resident employment estimates for the forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing subsector
are provided in Table 2-1 for the PRRD North of the Peace River (PRRD North), PRRD South of the Peace River
(PRRD South), the entirety of the PRRD, and BC. In 2016, a combined 1.8% of PRRDs employed labour force
worked in the forestry and logging sector and 1.4% in the wood product manufacturing subsector.

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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

Table 2-1 Local Resident Employment (Persons), by Sector and Subsector

Forestry and Logging Sector Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector


Location 2011 2016 2011 2016
PRRD North 230 310 515 675
PRRD South 240 335 525 680
PRRD 470 645 1,035 1,350
BC 14,600 19,400 65,900 40,500
NOTES:
PRRD employment, by sector and subsector, were estimated by applying provincial employment ratios (calculated
as the number of persons employed in each of the sectors and subsectors to BC employment in corresponding
two-digit NAICS codes [e.g., BC employment in wood product manufacturing / BC employment in NAICS 31-33
manufacturing]) to PRRD employment by two-digit NAICS code.
SOURCE:
BC Stats 2018a; Statistics Canada 2013a, 2017a

Estimates of average employment incomes for the forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing
subsector across BC are provided in Table 2-2. Between 2011 and 2016 average employment wages increased 24%
in forestry and logging and 13% in wood product manufacturing.

Table 2-2 Annual Average Employment Income, by Sector and Subsector

Forestry and Logging Sector Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector


Location 2010 2015 2010 2015
BC 42,350 52,402 49,694 56,350
NOTES:
Employment income is based on the average of the following National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes -
Forestry and Logging (NOCs 821, 824, 842, 86), Wood Product Manufacturing (NOCs 921, 943, 96), Mining
(NOCs 823, 841, 921, 941, 86). For tourism, annual employment income is based on BC Stats and Destination BC
published wage and salary and employment estimates.
SOURCE:
Statistics Canada 2013a, 2017a

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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

2.2 MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER RESOURCES IN BC


FLNRORD is responsible for the management of BC’s Crown forests. BC is divided into eight Forest Regions, 24
Forest Districts, 38 Timber Supply Areas (TSAs), and 34 Tree Farm Licenses (TFLs). The volume of Crown timber
that can be cut annually within BC is the AAC, which is determined through timber supply reviews completed at the
TSA level. Rights to harvest Crown timber are granted through apportionment of the AAC and issuance tenures,
mechanisms from which the government transfers specific rights to use Crown resources (BC FLNRORD 2018a,
201b).

Numerous forms of tenure are used to transfer timber harvesting rights. Timber tenures are volume- or area-based
and replaceable and/or non-replaceable. Volume-based tenures grant licenses the right to harvest a certain amount
of tenure within a TSA, allowing for multiple licensees to harvest, whereas area-based tenures grant the licensee
virtually exclusive rights to harvest timber within a specified area (BC FLNRORD 2012). Replaceable tenures are
generally of terms ranging from 20 to 25 years and may be updated or replaced every five to 10 years, whereas non-
replaceable tenures are issued on fixed term duration to achieve specific goals (BC FLNRORD 2012). A summary of
forms of tenure agreements is provided in Appendix A.

2.3 FORT ST. JOHN AND DAWSON CREEK TIMBER SUPPLY AREAS,
AND TREE FARM LICENSE 48
The FSJTSA and DCTSA fall within the Peace Natural Resource District (DPC) of FLNRORD’s Northeast Forest
Region (Province of British Columbia [PBC] 2018a); see Figure 2-2. Combined, the FSJTSA and DCTSA cover an
area of approximately 6.9 million hectares (FSJTSA 4.6 million, DCTSA 2.3 million hectares) and encompass the
communities of Fort St. John, Trutch, Pink Mountain, and Taylor, Chetwynd, Dawson Creek, Hudson’s Hope, and
Tumbler Ridge (PBC 2018b, 2018c).

The current AAC in the FSJTSA is 2,115,000 m3 (1,200,000 m3 conventional, 915,000 m3 deciduous leading stands),
effective May 10, 2018 (PBC 2018b, BC FLNRORD 2018c). The current AAC in the DCTSA is 1,860,000 m3,
effective October 30, 2014 (BC FLNROROD 2018d). The current AAC in TFL 48 is 1,550,000 m3. This reflects a
short-term (2015 – 2020) increase in the AAC to allow for removal of mountain pine beetle affected wood. The AAC
for TFL 48 will drop to 871,000 m3 after 2020 (BC FLNRORD 2015). Current apportionments within the FSJTSA,
DCTSA, and TFL 48 are summarized in Table 2-3.

5
May 30, 2019
R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

Table 2-3 Current FSJTSA, DCTSA, and TFL 48 Apportionments

Form of Agreement Volume (m3) Percent of AAC (%)


FSJTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable 394,952 18.7
Forest Licenses Non-Replaceable 462,085 21.8
BC Timber Sales (BCTS) Forest License Non-Replaceable 70,000 3.3
BCTS Timber Sale License (TSL)/License to Cut 552,059 26.1
Pulpwood Agreement TSL 518,000 24.5
Community Forest Agreement 20,000 0.9
Woodlot License 36,459 1.7
Forest Service Reserve 61,445 2.9
Total 2,115,000 100.0
DCTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable 371,567 20.0
Forest Licenses Non-Replaceable 700,000 37.6
First nations Woodland Tenure 77,913 4.2
BCTS TSL/License to Cut 401,186 21.6
Pulpwood Agreement TSL 214,141 11.5
Community Forest Agreement 35,000 1.9
Forest Service Reserve 60,193 3.2
Total 1,860,000 100.0
TFL 48
Tree Farm Licensee Schedule B 77.7
BCTS TSL/License to Cut 15.9
Other 6.5
Total 100.0
SOURCE:
BC FLNRORD 2018b, 2018c, 2019

Of the total AAC apportioned in the FSJTSA (2,115,000 m3), 1,325,037 m3 is currently committed (62.6%), 18.7% to a
replaceable forest license held by Canfor (the primary license holder in the TSA), 19.5% to non-replaceable forest
licenses held by Canfor West Moberly First Nation, Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd., and Mackenzie Pulp Mill
Corporation, and 24.5% to pulpwood agreements TSLs held by Canadian Forest Product Ltd. (Canfor), Chetwynd
Mechanical Pulp Inc., and Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. (Table 2-4). Within the DCTSA 1,285,708 m3 (60.8%) of the
ACC (1,860,000 m3) is currently committed, 20.0% to a replaceable forest license held by West Fraser Mills (the
primary license holder in the TSA), 37.6% to non-replaceable forest licenses held by Canfor, West Moberly First
Nation, Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd., and Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc., and 11.5% to pulpwood agreement TSLs

6
May 30, 2019
R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

held by Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd., and Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. For TFL 48 only apportionments are
assigned.

Table 2-4 Current FSJTSA and DCTSA Commitments

AAC Non-ACC
License Volume Volume
Form of Agreement Licensee Number (m3) (m3)
FSJTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable Canadian Forest Product Ltd. A18154 394,952 -
(Canfor)
Subtotal 394,952 -
Forest Licenses Non- Canfor; West Moberly First A56771 150,000 -
Replaceable Nation
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. A60049 193,000 -
Mackenzie Pulp Mill Corporation A60972 69,085 14,409
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. A85946 - 150,000
Subtotal 412,085 164,409
Pulpwood Agreement TSL Canfor PAG12 170,000 -
Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. PAG13 18,000 -
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. PAG20 330,000 -
Subtotal 518,000 -
Total 1,325,037 164,409
DCTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable West Fraser Mills A13840 371,567 -
Subtotal 371,567 -
Forest Licenses Non- Canfor; West Moberly First A57332 100,000 -
Replaceable Nation
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. A60064 348,000 -
Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. A70730 252,000
Subtotal 700,000 -
Pulpwood Agreement TSL Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. PAG10 104,000 -
Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. PAG13 110,141 -
Subtotal 214,141 -
Total 1,285,708 -
SOURCE:
BC FLNRORD 2018b, 2018c

7
May 30, 2019
R-2
Stone
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Title

Fort St. John Timber Supply Area,


Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area,
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
and Peace River Regional District

May 30, 2019


R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

2.3.1 Timber Harvesting Land Base

Each TSA and TFL contains productive forest land known as the Crown Forest Land Base (CFLB); however, only a
subset of the CFLB is both available and feasible to harvest. The area that is estimated to be available and feasible to
harvest is termed the Timber Harvesting Land Base (THLB). Based on the analysis completed for this project using
the available spatial data layers, there is 1,185,384 ha of THLB in the FSJTSA and 1,216,740 ha of THLB in
DCTSA/TFL 48. The estimated volume of timber within the Fort St. John and Dawson Creek THLBs is 244 million m3
and 260 million m3 respectively. Table 2-5 provides a breakdown of the THLB by stand type. THLBs are illustrated on
Figure 2-3 and Figure 2-4.

Table 2-5 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB

THLB
Stand Type Volume (m3) Area (ha)
FSJTSA
Deciduous 97,698,966 357,865
Coniferous 86,769,499 563,221
Mixedwood 59,209,639 264,298
Total 243,678,104 1,185,384
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 65,395,199 303,489
Coniferous 157,592,494 754,078
Mixedwood 37,350,966 159,174
Total 260,338,658 1,216,740

9
May 30, 2019
R-2
Revised: 2019-04-18 By: ltrudell
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Calgary
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AN
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A ÝÝ ÝÝ Park, Ecological Reserve, Client/Project/Report
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Notes ÝÝ ÝÝ Proposed Restoration of South
1. Coordinate System: NAD 1983 UTM Zone 10N
2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
" Municipal Boundary Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
2-3
Title

Fort St.John Timber Supply Area


Timber Harvesting Land Base
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.

May 30, 2019


R-2
ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ - ÝÝ ÝÝ
Fort St.John
Graham
Revised: 2019-04-18 By: ltrudell

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"
British Columbia Discipline Review by SROBERTS on 20180911
Calgary
"
Pacific "
GIS Review by SPARKER on 20181129
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AN
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A ÝÝ ÝÝ Park, Ecological Reserve, Client/Project/Report
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or Protected Area
Notes ÝÝ ÝÝ Proposed Restoration of South
1. Coordinate System: NAD 1983 UTM Zone 10N
2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
" Municipal Boundary Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
2-4
Title

Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area/


Tree Farm Licence 48
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
Timber Harvesting Land Base

May 30, 2019


R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

2.3.2 Current Mature Merchantable Land Base

The THLB includes forest stands (represented spatially as polygons) that range in age from recently cut and planted
areas to old-growth stands. The Current Mature Merchantable (CMM) land base is intended to represent timber that
is ready to be harvested now or in the short-term. The CMM land base within the FSJTSA is an area of approximately
500,000 ha containing 192 million m3 of CMM timber, accounting for approximately 42% of the total THLB area and
79% of total THLB timber volume (Table 2-6). The CMM land base within the DCTSA/TFL 48 is an area of
approximately 678,000 ha containing 246 million m3 of CMM timber, accounting for approximately 56% of the total
THLB area and 73% of total THLB timber volume. Figure 2-5 and Figure 2-6 provide illustrations of the FSJTSA and
DCTSA/TFL 48 CMM respectively.

Table 2-6 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and CMM Land Base

CMM Land Base


Volume Area
Percent of THLB Percent of THLB
Stand Type m3 (%) Ha (%)
FSJTSA
Deciduous 63,908,550 65.4 125,969 35.2
Coniferous 79,434,806 91.5 253,121 44.9
Mixedwood 49,150,213 83.0 122,803 46.5
Total 192,493,568 79.0 501,893 42.3
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 46,162,543 53.8 103,356 34.1
Coniferous 166,772,347 81.9 491,525 65.2
Mixedwood 32,544,324 68.9 83,488 52.5
Total 245,479,213 72.9 678,369 55.8

12
May 30, 2019
R-2
ÝÝ Revised: 2019-04-18 By: ltrudell ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ

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Park, Ecological Reserve, Socio-Economic Impact of
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Notes ÝÝ ÝÝ or Protected Area
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Municipal Boundary
"
2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
2-5
Title

Fort St.John Timber Supply Area


Current Mature Merchantable Land
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
Base

May 30, 2019


R-2
ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ
Fort St.John
Graham -
Revised: 2019-04-18 By: ltrudell

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Calgary
"
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"

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CANADA Client/Project/Report
Victoria "
USA
1:50,000,000 "
Park, Ecological Reserve, Socio-Economic Impact of
Proposed Restoration of South
Notes ÝÝ ÝÝ or Protected Area
1. Coordinate System: NAD 1983 UTM Zone 10N Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
Municipal Boundary
"
2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
2-6
Title

Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area/


Tree Farm Licence 48
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
Current Mature Merchantable Land

May 30, 2019


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RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

2.3.3 Volume and Value of Harvested Timber

Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 1,800,000 m3 of timber was harvested from the FSJTSA
representing an 88% annual average utilization of the AAC (2,115,000 m3). The estimated value of harvested timber
increased from approximately $99 million in 2015 to $157 million in 2018 (Figure 2-7).

2,500,000 180,000,000

160,000,000

2,000,000
140,000,000

Value (2018 Dollars)


120,000,000
1,500,000
Volume (m3)

100,000,000

80,000,000
1,000,000
60,000,000

40,000,000
500,000

20,000,000

- -
2015 2016 2017 2018
Year

Harvested Volume AAC Value of Harvest (2018 Dollars)

SOURCE: BC FLNRO 2018c, 2018e; BC Coast Log Market Reports 2018 and BC Interior Log Market Values 2018

Figure 2-7 FSJTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC

Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 1,300,000 m3 of timber was harvested from the DCTSA
representing an 74% annual average utilization of the AAC (1,860,000 m3). The estimated value of harvested timber
decreased from approximately $76 million in 2015 to $58 million in 2018 (with a short-term increase from 2015 to
2016 to $77 million; Figure 2-8).

15
May 30, 2019
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RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

2,000,000 120,000,000

1,800,000
100,000,000
1,600,000

1,400,000

Value (2018 Dollars)


80,000,000
1,200,000
Volume (m3)

1,000,000 60,000,000

800,000
40,000,000
600,000

400,000
20,000,000
200,000

- -
2015 2016 2017 2018
Year

Harvested Volume AAC Value of Harvest (2018 Dollars)

SOURCE: BC FLNRO 2018d, 2018e; BC Coast Log Market Reports 2018 and BC Interior Log Market Values 2018

Figure 2-8 DCTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC

Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 900,000 m3 of timber was harvested from TFL 48
representing an 59% annual average utilization of the AAC (1,550,000 m3). The estimated value of harvested timber
increased from approximately $42 million in 2015 to $63 million in 2018 (Figure 2-9). After 2020, the harvest volume
in TFL 48 will decline, relative to 2018 volumes, because the AAC will be adjusted to 871,000 m3.

16
May 30, 2019
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RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

1,800,000 90,000,000

1,600,000 80,000,000

1,400,000 70,000,000

1,200,000 60,000,000

Value (2018 Dollars)


Volume (m3)

1,000,000 50,000,000

800,000 40,000,000

600,000 30,000,000

400,000 20,000,000

200,000 10,000,000

- -
2015 2016 2017 2018
Year

Harvested Volume AAC Value of Harvest (2018 Dollars)

SOURCE: BC FLNRO 2015, 2018e; BC Coast Log Market Reports 2018 and BC Interior Log Market Values 2018

Figure 2-9 TFL 48 Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC

2.3.4 Delivered Wood Costs

Delivered wood costs are the costs to harvest and transport timber to market. For this analysis, delivered wood cost
is comprised of administration and planning; road construction and maintenance; logging and processing, trucking,
and silviculture; camps costs; water tow; and stumpage. Delivered log costs for the FSJTSA were estimated using the
methods described in Appendix A and are listed in Table 2-7. On average, the estimated delivered wood cost within
the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 is approximately $57/m3 and $46/m3 respectively.

17
May 30, 2019
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RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

Table 2-7 Weighted-Average 2018 Delivered Wood Costs, FSJTSA and DCTSA/
TFL 48

Stand Type 2018 Delivered Wood Costs ($/m3)


FSJTSA
Deciduous 53.40
Coniferous 59.22
Mixedwood 56.21
All Types 57.17
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 42.20
Coniferous 46.79
Mixedwood 43.70
All Types 46.30

2.3.5 Economic CMM Land Base

Where the CMM land base represents timber that is ready to be harvested now or in the short-term, the Economic
CMM (ECMM) land base is intended to represent that portion of the CMM where estimated timber values (calculated
using values from Section 2.3.3) exceed delivered wood costs (Table 2-7). The ECMM land base within the FSJTSA
is an area of approximately 200,000 ha containing 73 million m3 of ECMM timber, accounting for approximately 17%
of the total THLB area and 30% of total THLB timber volume (Table 2-8). The CMM land base within DCTSA/TFL 48
is an area of approximately 540,000 ha containing 200 million m3 of CMM timber, accounting for approximately 44%
of the total THLB area and 60% of total THLB timber volume. Figure 2-10 and Figure 2-11 provide illustrations of the
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 ECMM respectively.

18
May 30, 2019
R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

Table 2-8 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and ECMM Land Base

ECMM Land Base


Volume Area
Percent of THLB Percent of THLB
Stand Type m3 (%) Ha (%)
FSJTSA
Deciduous 9,938,329 10.2 17,821 5.0
Coniferous 48,685,061 56.1 141,450 25.1
Mixedwood 14,516,192 24.5 39,793 15.1
Total 73,139,582 30.0 199,063 16.8
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 24,311,269 28.3 4,995 1.6
Coniferous 154,183,505 75.7 438,597 58.2
Mixedwood 22,828,409 48.4 58,211 36.6
Total 201,323,182 59.8 540,803 44.4

19
May 30, 2019
R-2
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"

1:50,000,000 "
Socio-Economic Impact of
Notes ÝÝ ÝÝ or Protected Area Proposed Restoration of South
1. Coordinate System: NAD 1983 UTM Zone 10N Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
Municipal Boundary
"
2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
2-10
Title

Fort St.John Timber Supply Area


Economic Current Mature Merchantable
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
Land Base

May 30, 2019


R-2
ÝÝ Graham
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British Columbia Discipline Review by SROBERTS on 20180911
Calgary
First Nations Reserve Land Base
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Pacific "
GIS Review by SPARKER on 20181129
Ocean Vancouver
CANADA Client/Project/Report
Victoria USA
Park, Ecological Reserve,
"

1:50,000,000 "
Socio-Economic Impact of
Notes ÝÝ ÝÝ or Protected Area Proposed Restoration of South
1. Coordinate System: NAD 1983 UTM Zone 10N Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
Municipal Boundary
"
2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
2-11
Title

Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area/ Tree


Farm Licence 48 Economic Current
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
Mature Merchantable Land Base

May 30, 2019


R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019

2.3.6 Wood Product Manufacturing

There are four mills operating in each the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 (Table 2-9). The Paper Excellence BTMP
deciduous pulp mill in Chetwynd is currently non-operational; however, processing could restart late 2018 (Stantec
2018; IFS 2018). In total, the FSJTSA has an estimated capacity of 492 million board feet of lumber, 660 million
square feet (3/8” basis) of oriented strand board (OSB), and 60,000 tonnes of wood pellets. The DCTSA/TFL 48 has
an estimated total capacity of 532 million board feet of lumber, 345 million square feet (3/8” basis) of OSB, and
88,000 tonnes of wood pellets.

Table 2-9 Mills Operating with the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48

Estimated Annual
Capacity
Mill
Number Mill Name Company Mill Location Value Units
FSJTSA
122 Fort St. John Sawmill Canfor Fort St. John 282 Million board feet
122 Fort St. John Pellet Canfor Fort St. John 60 Thousand tonnes
335 Taylor Pulp Mill (bleached Canfor Taylor 210 Million board feet
thermos-mechanical pulp
[BTMP] mill)
942 Peace Valley OSB Louisiana Pacific Fort St. John 660 Million square feet
Canada Ltd. (3/8” basis)
DCTSA/TFL 48
127 Chetwynd Sawmill Canfor Chetwynd 217 Million board feet
127 Chetwynd Pellet Canfor Chetwynd 88 Thousand tonnes
552 Chetwynd Forest Industries West Fraser Mills Ltd. Chetwynd 315 Million board feet
650 Louisiana Pacific Ltd. OSB Louisiana Pacific Dawson Creek 345 Million square feet
Plant Canada Ltd. (3/8” basis)
SOURCE:
BC FLNRORD

Inflation-adjusted values of select manufactured wood products in BC between 2015 and 2018 are provided in
Table 2-10. Between 2015 and 2018 the value of lumber increased 71%, the value of plywood (3/8” basis) 58%, OSB
(3/8” basis) 119%, and wood pellets 23%. For 2018, assuming an average industrial utilization of 85% 2, $580 million
in revenue is estimated to be generated by mills operating within the FSJTSA, $500 million for mills within
DCTSA/TFL 48.

2 2017-2018 average industrial utilization of wood product manufacturing facilities within Canada (Statistics
Canada 2018a)

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R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
May 14, 2019

Table 2-10 Inflation-Adjusted Value of Select Manufactured Wood Products in BC

Product / Year 2015 2016 2017 2018


Lumber ($000 bd ft) 478 529 699 819
Plywood ($000 sq ft), 3/8" basis 363 381 472 574
OSB ($000 sq ft), 3/8" basis 186 263 372 409
Pulp ($ tonne) 724 715 844 1,178
Wood Pellets ($000 kg) 149 154 172 183
SOURCE:
BC Forest Products 2018; Random Lengths 2018; Statistics Canada 2018b, 2018c

3.0 TACTICAL RESTORATION PLAN FOR THE SOUTH PEACE


NORTHERN CARIBOU RANGES

The South Peace Northern Caribou (SPNC) population of woodland caribou is comprised of seven herds: Graham,
Moberly, Scott, Burnt Pine, Kennedy Siding, Quintette and Narraway. The population of these herds is declining
rapidly, and as of 2016 consisted of 181 animals in the Graham herd and 219 animals in the other South Peace herds
(Golder 2018). Loss and fragmentation of habitat resulting from anthropogenic disturbance, leading to increase in
predator and prey species in early seral stage habitats, and wolf predation are identified as causative factors in the
decline in woodland caribou populations (Golder 2018).

FLNRORD is developing a Provincial Caribou Recovery Program, which includes goals of restoring habitat and
reversing adverse effects of anthropogenic disturbance. Such restoration will support the Province in meeting federal
caribou recovery efforts, including caribou habitat intactness targets (Golder 2018). There are two types of caribou
habitat restoration techniques: functional and ecological. Functional techniques focus on restoring predator-prey
relationships to historic levels, by limiting the effectiveness of predators’ use of linear disturbances. Ecological
restoration techniques focus on restoring an area to a pre-disturbed state, through either natural vegetation recovery
or site preparation and active planting (Golder 2018).

FLNRORD has] released the Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges to
facilitate engagement with First Nations and stakeholder in regard to prioritization of restoration areas and restoration
efforts (Golder 2018). The objectives of the Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan are to:

• “Identify the key principles or criteria to spatially define priority areas at, and within, the range scale
• Identify what type of habitat restoration activities should be undertaken
• Identify where restoration activities should be undertaken in each range to achieve the greatest return on
investment
• Identify how to sequence and coordinate restoration plans within the larger SPNC ranges” (Golder 2018)

23
May 30, 2019
R-2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
RANGES

Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
May 14, 2019

Golder (2018) delineated areas of linear disturbance as either “no treatment” or “treatment candidate.” “No
treatment” areas are comprised of disturbances that have active dispositions or protective notations, cutblocks or
forest-fired areas less than 40 years old, and disturbance areas that have limited potential for habitat restoration (e.g.,
alpine non-forested ecosystems). Linear feature areas that did not meet the “no treatment” criteria were considered
“treatment candidate” areas. Golder (2018) identified preliminary restoration polygons based on areas of linear
disturbance area overlap with high density caribou areas, in consideration of the following geospatial information:
telemetry, high-elevation winter and summer range, designated Ungulate Winter Range (UWR) and Wildlife Habitat
Area (WHA).

Table 3-1 summarizes preliminary restoration polgyons identified in Golder 2018. The initial restoration polygons
cover approximately 31,624 ha of the FSJTSA and 224,459 ha of DCTSA/TFL 48.

Table 3-1 Caribou Restoration Polygon Area from Preliminary Tactical Restoration
Plan

Restoration Zone by Herd Preliminary Restoration Polygons Area (Ha)


FSJTSA
Graham 31,624
Total 31,624
DCTSA/TFL 48
Burnt Pine
Graham 7,877
Kennedy Siding 8,943
Moberly 23,923
Narraway 42,377
Quintette - Zone 1 93,287
Quintette - Zone 2 29,236
Quintette - Zone 3 7,116
Scott 11,462
Total 224,459
SOURCE:
Golder 2018

As described, the Moratorium Scenario assumes that activities resulting in anthropogenic disturbance, including
resource extraction, and all tourism and recreation would be prohibited within the preliminary restoration polygon
areas. Overlap between proposed restoration polygons and the FSJTSA CMM and DCTSA/TFL 48 CMM is illustrated
in Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2 respectively.

24
May 30, 2019
R-2
Revised: 2019-05-13 By: ltrudell
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