Isidro Fierro Ulloa

The Current Demographic Scenario

El escenario demográfico actual

Isidro Fierro Ulloa1

Abstract

This research paper is aimed at thinking about the problem that the current demographic scenario means
for mankind because of the excessive increase on the birth rates in poorest social class in the globe. This
overpopulation is consuming the global resources at a fast pace and it is taking the world to its limits. This paper
focuses on the increase of the population in India country 1.350 million inhabitants and more specifically on
New Dahli its capital city whose large population is expected to be larger than China population by 2030. This
study used the inductive approach to research to analyze the globe cities and its many problems which must
become business and migration centers from populations focused on single cities which are making economic
poverty, public health, education system and jobs a problem difficult to cope with. This approach allows to be
in line with the current demographic scenario which uses the international organization data to monitor the
global overpopulation. The results showed that a timely control over birth rates and the citizen´s education
might minimize the demographic impact that the world currently experiences. In short, this situation should be
regarded as the problem of the century one due to the negative consequences that should be efficiently treated
in the ethics, social, politics and human.

Keywords
Demographic, population, India, Nueva Delhi, births, mankind

Resumen

Este artículo de investigación tiene como objetivo reflexionar sobre el escenario demográfico actual que
representa una realidad problema para la humanidad, ya que las tasas de natalidad aumentan excesivamente
entre las clases sociales más bajas del mundo. Esta superpoblación se está deshaciendo de los recursos
globales y está llevando al mundo a sus límites Este documento se centra en el aumento de la población
de la India, un país de 1.350 millones de habitantes y más específicamente en la ciudad capital de Nueva
Delhi, cuya enorme población se estima que es mayor que la de China población en el año 2030. Con el
objetivo de abordar los problemas de muchas ciudades del mundo que tienen convertirse en centros de
actividad económica y migración de poblaciones interiores concentradas en ciudades individuales que están
haciendo de la pobreza económica, la salud, la educación, el trabajo y otros problemas la metodología de
investigación utilizada se basó en el método inductivo - deductivo, que al estar en línea con el escenario
demográfico actual y en base a datos oficiales de organizaciones internacionales que se ocupan de la cuestión
de la superpoblación Con experiencia en el mundo. Los resultados mostraron que un control oportuno de
la natalidad y la educación de los ciudadanos, podría Minimizar el impacto demográfico que el mundo
experimenta actualmente. Por lo tanto, se concluye que debido a Las consecuencias negativas que deberán
ser tratadas de manera eficiente en este sentido ético, social, político y humanitario. El problema debe ser
considerado como el desafío del siglo.

Palabras clave
Demografía, población, India, Nueva Delhi, nacimientos, humanidad

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18041/2382-3240/saber.2018v13n2.4621

Fecha de recepción: 15 de marzo de 2018.

Fecha de evaluación: 9 de mayo de 2018.
Fecha de aceptación: 5 de junio de 2018.

1 Decano Facultad de Estudios Internacionales, UEES - Guayaquil - Ecuador. Doctorante Ciencias de la Dirección, Universidad del
Rosario - Colombia. MBA Negocios Internacionales, Universidad Santa María, Campus Guayaquil - Ecuador.
Correo electrónico: isfierro@uees.edu.ec ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9000-6945

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1. Introduction
Regardless the advanced relationship
between the population growth, poverty, the
disproportionate growth of the population in
the globe and how they make the standard of
living poor by consuming the environment has
become an axiom broadcasted by the social
media and the scientific studies which has made
this knowledge to be at hand.
This document focuses on the reflection
and criticism of the ideas on population
growth, poverty and ethics especially in areas
of the world where the largest population has
concentrated. In India country for example, and
its capital city New Delhi the responsibility of
the State to ethically fight the poverty must be
presented as an issue that should aim at helping
other poor countries decrease their population
that has progressively grown.
When thinking over the problems of
overpopulation and on its unnatural growth we
must turn our eyes to the migratory movements
and their incidence in social class poverty.
This highlights the obligation to treat the
consequences, from the point of practical ethics,
which would lead to accept as a truth that there
is a population excess which in turn is the main
responsible for the proliferation of poverty in
the world and cities like New Delhi.
2. Literature review
2.1 The current state of global demography
Currently the world lives in a constant
increase of the world population according
to statistical data the current population has
approximately 7,350 million inhabitants of
which 80% concentrates in Asia and Africa as
the regions of the world that focus poverty health
and educational problems and that maintain
high birth rates (United Nations, 2017).
108
The Current Demographic Scenario
This population problem is the challenge of
the millennium for international organizations
that work together with the governments
of the world especially in countries such as
China and India with the highest demographic
growth (South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation 2017). In this situation these
countries need to take governmental action on
social and political issues, which help to educate
their populations to control births and reduce
their overpopulation problems, such as poverty
or migration to the cities (Beckett, 2015).
The social problems that arise from the
high population indexes, have consequences
in conflicts within the cities that host such
populations that move from the interiors of a
country to their more productive or industrialized
cities (Young, 2014). This is other factor comes
from increase of the population in the world
because the birth rates contribute to the lack
of attention in basic areas that a government is
obliged to provide to its citizens and given this
state inability by the high population indexes
that exceed the budgets of the countries and
generates poverty and migration that raises the
indices of crime and other evils that afflict the
world today (Jobs, 2014).
2.2 Where is everyone?
As regards the question where is everyone
facing this enormous problem? It is necessary to
say that international organizations and the state
are already working on country overpopulation
otherwise it might be the most populated
country in the world in 20 years surpassing
China and without a prospect of birth control
(Abramson, 2015).
On assuming the conceptual constraints of a
population demographic aspects which implies
the analysis of the evolution in terms of size,
structure, age and sex, as well as the social prem-
ises that the State has taken to deal with the gen-
eral population explosion in the capital city of
India country and the country (Hawk, 2014).
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Isidro Fierro Ulloa
Although simple in its presentation, this
reflects the need and importance of knowing
the numerical variability of the inhabitants of
a territory and the relative weight of children,
young and old people which is a social and
statistical element of irrefutable study for a
government with a population of high growth
index (Morgan, 2016). Therefore, it refers to
multiple consequences of different types due
to the different results that derive from the
demographic explosion from the confrontation
of social conflicts such as crime to the lack
of attention to basic rights such as health or
education (Wright, 2015).
Therefore, fertility, mortality and migration
are the central variables of the demographic
analysis, as they are factors of direct change in
a population that is the direct responsibility of
the State towards its citizens and the challenges
that the country faces and represents for the
institutionality and functioning. In parallel,
demography is interested in other factors that
act indirectly such as nuptiality, the formation
of households and families or the spatial
distribution of the population, as important
aspects to study (Jennings, 2016).
2.3 Age profiles
The constant increase of the population in
the world and specifically in India and its capi-
tal represents a young population that ranges
between 15 - 25 years in productive salary age
who must be a great work force (Ministry of
Health and Social Welfare, 2017). This consti-
tutes an enormous resource for the State which
should be used to promote the social, economic,
productive and institutional development of the
country; but this situation is not entirely true be-
cause there are several problems generated by
overpopulation (Abrahams, 2015).
India country inhabitants´ age profile is a
productivity advantage for the country, which
could be exploited if the economic and budget
conditions of the State can employ the entire
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working-age population. Doing so, would mean
efficient schooling, health care, employment
coverage, housing and other related aspects, and
this is precisely the area where the government
cannot handle the entire demographic index
since economic resources are not enough for
everyone. This generates migratory movements
and shocking social conflicts (Graves, 2014).
These difficulties lie in the social, spatial
and even legal character that the phenomenon
implies because on the one hand, the sources
of information used to analyze the population
movements whether administrative records,
censuses or surveys have important limits
to investigate the characteristics, causes
and consequences of migration flows in a
country like India in New Delhi its capital city
(Simmons, 2013).
This has created administrative problems
for the institutions that look after the moving
populations´ integral attention and the check
of the migratory flow that not only creates
economic and social problems but also means
the possibility of foci of mortality related to the
lack of health care especially in children and
adolescents (Long, 2015).
2.4 The household
The social conflicts generated from the high
demographic indices in India and its capital
New Delhi, have therefore changes in the family
structure, which is certainly part of the culture
of the country but due to the large population
concentrations several families share the same
house changing the family structure, hierarchy
and representation for the right functioning of
society (Battle, 2016).
The arguments about the low causality be-
tween demographic imbalances as a determi-
nant of current migration determine that these
families change their structures, food habits and
other aspects related to the culture of the coun-
try with respect to the family and the head of
Págs. 107-113 109

the household as the central human element for
all the members´ development tasks (Crawford,
2013).
This focuses the controversy in the form
and degree to which immigration influences the
population growth, the strengthening of fertility
levels or the rejuvenation of the age structure
and among others represents the approach of
an open discussion that constantly affects the
family structure in India and the population
growth in the region (Cunningham, 2014).
For (Fairchild, 2015) the most evident
impact lies on the negative facts of several
families sharing the same house and the close
family relationships that has brought changes
to the to the social structure in the country as
an observable fact of the current demographic
scenario.
2.5 Urbanization
The lack of an adequate housing network in
India country as a result of high demographic
rates and migration to cities such as New Delhi
has brought changes in the family structure. As
the inhabitants in India country do not execute
any control over birth rates and this reach a
peak up to 30 members the government pays
only for the construction of houses for complete
families of 4 to 5 members. this brings a chaos
to the western cultures when compared to the
indices of urbanization in India and its capital
(Ministry of Social Development and Housing,
2016).
As a result of the population explosion there
are two facts that suggest that the aggregate
fertility of a population increases with the arrival
of immigrants. According to biological criteria
for studies applied in societies with a high index
of migratory reception the immigrants´ ages
match the stage life cycle between 15 and 49
years in which reproduction is greater, (Harper,
2015). The least developed regions have the
greater fertility ever greater than in New Delhi
110
The Current Demographic Scenario
and this preserve the reproductive patterns
of their places of origin creating a conflict
of urbanization and large centers of poverty
(Derricks, 2014).
Multiple economic, social and personal
factors determine the biological process of
fertility in such a way that the reproductive
patterns of a group can be radically modified
in certain contexts, personal circumstances
and even historical junctures (Hawk, 2014).
As a social fact, we remember not only the
increase in fertility after the Second World War
as necessary to maintain the States productivity
but also the birth rates control to keep population
growth in good state (Battle, 2016).
2.6 Education
The government´s goal should be to guar-
antee the citizens´ welfare and the access to the
fundamental right of education. If the macro-
economic policy defines the rate of growth of
the Gross Domestic Product to develop the
economy growth possibilities and manage to
keep it in a stable manner to maximize the wel-
fare and guarantee rights that are inalienable or
imprescriptible for children and young people
then education will be guarantee the citizens´
normal life development (Fairchild, 2015).
Economic growth influences the allocation
of resources to the education sector, and that is
why in India this generates a great divergence
between governmental and social interests. Al-
though the State´s duty is to guarantee educa-
tion for everybody as part of a human right it
is essential to observe that families base their
cultural development on marriages that begin at
the age 12 for women and 14 years for men, so
this creates an obstacle to education because it
interrupts the normal development of a school
program. The government does not have the
necessary resources, nor part of the social cul-
ture there is a greater interest in an adequate ba-
sic education (Ministry of Education and Cul-
tural Attention, 2017).
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Isidro Fierro Ulloa
2.7 Employment
As well as it is in the world employment is a
key and challenging factor in India Country and
especially in a large city like New Delhi whose
population ranges between 26 and 30 million
inhabitants (Battle, 2016). The incidence of eco-
nomic growth over the allocation of resources
among productive sectors, on the relative prices
of goods as well as the revenues by factors such
as (labor, physical capital, human capital, land)
brings consequences on distributing the rent.
Unless it grows in the same proportion for all
citizens its distribution will vary with growth.
This can lead to a more egalitarian income dis-
tribution and unequal distribution that might
translate in a lack of resources for the employ-
ment generation (Abramson, 2015). This effect
will depend on factors such as the sources of
growth, the participation of factors in the gener-
ation of work, or the degree of concentration in
the ownership of the means of production and
ultimately of the mechanisms of distribution
of wealth that are destined to generate employ-
ment in the private and public sector (Morgan,
2016). if the reduction of poverty with greater
employment is pursued, the effect that growth
can have on distribution will be a fundamen-
tal aspect, so it is also important to understand
the determinants of the redistributive impact of
economic growth and development of the labor
force for the guarantee of employment in the
country (World Bank, 2016).
2.8 Household income
Since the rates of employment in India do
not reach most of the population the economic
income will not be enough for the family to
guarantee the coverage of basic needs. The
unemployment rates reach the 37% of the
population generating low indices of income
in the families of India and in its capital New
Delhi. Given the poverty, underdevelopment,
the increased annual migration of entire
populations from the inner part of the country
looking for jobs and new opportunities and the
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social conflicts derive from it this would mean
a big problem for the state (Graves, 2014) Since
the income in India is equivalent to $ 75 US
dollars per family this create a huge economic
gap in the country and especially in New Delhi
contributing to the institutional deterioration.
With its dynamic and emerging economic India
is a member of BRICS a group of countries with
emerging economies which have reduced the
social gap. This dynamic has enriched certain
social groups but has also damaged most of the
constant and growing population in poverty and
unemployment giving them no future. (BRICS,
2017).
3. Summary
The population explosion is a problem for
mankind its resources and all the aspects gener-
ated by the social coexistence and normal de-
velopment. Therefore, it is necessary to address
pertinently the world countries and its inhabit-
ants´ problems and constraints imposed by the
levels of inequality in the current demographic
scenario. This study provides the readers with
a brief analysis about the world, India country
situation and its capital city New Delhi as dif-
ficult for most of the population to satisfy their
basic needs. This explains the heterogeneity in
some countries experiencing high growth spurts
with little reduction in poverty while others
have achieved declines in poverty with limited
growth. Furthermore, this study represents part
of poverty episodes reduction as challenging the
State to face an incessant population increase.
The higher the country´s population poverty
rates are the lower the country development de-
gree is. The high levels of inequal distribution
of resources, such as education, health and new
jobs are a global call for the governments to
face the overpopulation problem and fight the
growth variable inequality in a non-univocally
determined sense for the economic growth gen-
erates equality. This will stop poverty to grow
resulting in keeping the permanent distribution
of incomes as well as the general State budget
to guarantee all social needs coverage getting
Págs. 107-113 111
 The Current Demographic Scenario

as response the economic growth by finishing
inequality and poverty. In short, the good or bad
changes in inequality induced by the growth of
the population are totally relevant in the strug-
gle against poverty. If concrete actions are not
taken to help the world population to solve the
overpopulation problem and the consequences
it brings and if people are not trained sexually
and reproductively their standard of living will
not improve in line to their country socio eco-
nomic reality.

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