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PROBABILITY c.

8
PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING
d. 4 How likely is it that he will get a score of
100%? PERMUTATIONS OF DIFFERENT OBJECTS
SAMPLE SPACE IN PROBABILITY (FOR LARGE SAMPLE SPACE)
a. 18 b. 16
Problem 1
c. 10 d. 32
Problem 1 Problem 1 Problem 1 It is required to seat 5 men and 4 women in a
A set that consists of all possible outcomes row so that the women occupy the even
How many 4-digit numbers can be formed A couple is expecting the birth of a baby
of a random experiment is called with the 10 digits 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , 9 if places. How many such arrangements are
a. sample set b. sample point boy. They will name the child by choosing a possible?
repetitions are allowed? first name and middle name from this list of
c. event d. sample space a. 4536 b. 5040 a. 24 b. 120
their favorite boys' names: Jacob, Jonah, c. 2880 d. 5040
Problem 1 c. 504 d. 9000 Joshua, Jeremy, James, Joseph. The first
Problem 1 name will be different from the middle Problem 1
It is a set of possible outcomes,
a. sample set b. sample point name. How many different two-part names How many 4-digit numbers can be formed
How many outcomes are there of rolling a are possible?
c. event d. sample space with the 10 digits 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , 9 if the last
die four times? a. 36 b. 12
Problem 1 a. 1024 b. 1296 digit must be zero and repetitions are not
c. 30 d. 11 allowed?
c. 729 d. 216
How many possible outcomes for tossing a Problem 1 a. 4536 b. 5040
coin? Problem 1 c. 504 d. 9000
a. 1 b. 2 There are 5 guys (including Gomer) on
How many ways of taking a 10 question Gomer's bowling team. After the beer frame Problem 1
c. 3 d. 4 survey with 2 choices (yes or no) for each they will each choose one of the following: Four different mathematics books, six
Problem 1 question? Scud, Scud Lite, or Scud Ice. How many
a. 1024 b. 1296 different physics books, and two different
How many possible outcomes for Picking 2 outcomes are possible? chemistry books are to be arranged on a
c. 729 d. 216 a. 60 b. 125
marbles, one at a time, from a bag that shelf. How many different arrangements are
contains many blue and red marbles? Problem 1 c. 15 d. 243 possible if only the mathematics books must
a. 4 b. 3 In Florida, standard automobile license plate Problem 1 stand together?
c. 6 d. 12 "numbers" used to follow the following a. 144 b. 69,120
Adam, Beth, Charles, Dawn, and Ernie are c. 207,360 d. 34,560
Problem 1 scheme: 3 letters -- 2 digits -- 1 letter the five finalists in the fabulous Clearers
A bag has 2 red balls, 3 green balls and 4
Examples: JKP47R Publishing house sweepstakes. Through a Problem 1
TRR39S random selection process, one of them will
orange balls. Find the number of possible The California Super Lotto Plus game is
VWN22Y win a pen-and-pencil set, one of them will
outcomes when one ball is chosen randomly played by picking 5 numbers between 1 and
ZQW05Z win a one-year supply of cat food, and one of
from the bag. 47 and one MEGA number between 1 and
How many different license plate codes were them will win a brand new Chevy blazer
a. 9 b. 18 27. Assuming that the winning numbers are
possible under this scheme? (that is, a vinyl sports jacket with the words
c. 12 d. 6 picked at random, how many different sets
a. 41.13 x 106 b. 32.29 x 106 "Chevy" embossed on the back). Nobody
Problem 1 c. 45.7 x 10 6
d. 37.02 x 106 of winning lottery numbers are possible?
will win more than one prize. How many a. 74 b. 262
A coin is tossed three times in succession, Problem 1 different outcomes are possible? c. 6.2 x 105 d. 6.2 x 109
find the sample space for all possible a. 125 b. 15
sequences of heads and tails with atleast one
Gomer has to take a 5 question true/false c. 12 d. 60 PERMUTATIONS OF LIKE OBJECTS
quiz, but he hasn't studied. He will guess at Problem 1
head.
each problem. In how many different ways is
a. 6 b. 7 If you are given the word PARALLEL,
it possible to answer the quiz questions?
compute the number of different 8-letter c. 105 d. 120 b. The events are independent. Problem 1
arrangements can be formed? Problem 1 c. The events are not equally probable.
a. 3,360 b. 20,160 d. The events are complements. Not at all green in color
c. 6,720 d. 40,320 Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 physicists, a THEORETICAL PROBABILITY a. 1/6 b. 5/12
committee consisting of 2 mathematicians c. 1/2 d. 1/12
Problem 1 The probability can then be
and 3 physicists is to be formed. In how
calculated by finding out EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY
In how many ways can the letters of the many ways can this be done if two particular experimental probability is
word 'LEADER' be arranged? mathematicians cannot be on the committee? the ratio of the number of
outcomes that are the simple ratio of the
a. None of these b. 120 a. 150 b. 350
favorable to the event and number of times an event is
c. 360 d. 720 c. 105 d. 120
the total number of occurring to the total
Problem 1 Problem 1 outcomes of the experiment. number of times or trials
How many arrangements can be made out of In the standard game of poker, each player that the activity has been
the letters of the word 'ENGINEERING'? gets 5 cards and places a bet, hoping his Problem 1 repeated for.
a. 924,000 b. 277,200 cards are "better" than the other players' Suppose two different states each pick a two- Problem 1
c. None of these d. 182,000 hands. Determine the number of different digit lottery number between 00 and 99 A bag contains 10 red marbles, 8 blue
CIRCULAR PERMUTATIONS possible poker hands is found. (there are 100 possible numbers). What is the marbles and 2 yellow marbles. Find the
a. 311.88 x 106 b. 2,598,960 probability that both states pick the same
Problem 1 c. 270,725 d. 8.07 x 1067 experimental probability of getting a blue
number? marble.
In how many ways can 7 people be seated at Problem 1 a. 2/100 b. 1/100 a. 1/10 b. 2/5
a round table if 2 particular people must not c. 1/200 d. 1/10,000
Out of 7 consonants and 4 vowels, how c. 1/5 d. 3/5
sit next to each other?
many words of 3 consonants and 2 vowels Problem 1 Problem 1
a. 5,040 b. 720
c. 480 d. 120 can be formed? Sofia and Tess will reach randomly choose
a. 24,400 b. 21,300 The following is from a particular region's
COMBINATIONS c. 210 d. 25,200
one of the 10 integers from 1 to 10. What is
the probability that neither integer chosen
mortality table.
Age 0 20 40 60 80
Problem 1 COMBINATIONS OF DIFFERENT THINGS will be the square of the other?
No.
The Court of Appeals has 9 justices. On a TAKEN AT ANY NUMBER AT A TIME a. 0.64 b. 0.72
surviving
10000 9700 9240 7800 4300
c. 0.81 d. 0.95
certain case, the justices voted 5 to 4 in favor PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT Problem 1 What is the probability that a 20-year-old
of the defendant. In how many ways could
Probability is defined as the will survive to be 60?
this have happened?
likeliness of the occurrence A bag contains 10 red marbles, 8 blue a. 0.196 b. 0.442
a. 24 b. 120
c. 144 d. 126 of an event. Probability marbles and 2 yellow marbles. Find the c. 0.780 d. 0.804
always lies between 0 and 1. theoretical probability of getting a blue
Problem 1
Problem 1 marble.
Problem 1 a. 1/10 b. 2/5 The following data are from The
Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 physicists, a
A student reasons that either he will or will c. 1/5 d. 3/5 Commissioner's Standard Ordinary Table of
committee consisting of 2 mathematicians
not receive 5 on the exam AP Statistics Problem 1 Mortality:
and 3 physicists is to be formed. In how
many ways can this be done if any exam, and therefore the probability of
receiving a 5 is 0.5. Why is this incorrect Either blue or white in color
mathematician and any physicist can be
reasoning? a. 1/6 b. 5/12
included?
a. The events are mutually exclusive. c. 1/2 d. 1/12
a. 150 b. 350
Age Number of Surviving arrive on time. What is the probability that a Note: The probability events A or B or C The probability of union of two events is
flight will be late? or ... N happening is given by given by:
0 10,000,000 a. 7% b. 5% P(A) + P(B) + P(C) +…+ P(N) P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
20 9,664,994 c. 6% d. 4%
Where: Where:
40 9,241,359 ODDS P (A) = the probability of event A P (A) = the probability of event A
70 5,592,012 The odds of an event is the P (B) = the probability of event B P (B) = the probability of event B.
What is the probability that a 20-year- old
ratio of the probability of an P (C) = the probability of event C P(A∩B) = the probability of the
will survive to be 70? event to the probability of P (N) = the probability of last event intersection of events A and B.
its complement.
a. 0.579 b. 0.407 (multiple events larger than 3) INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
c. 0.559 d. 0.966 Problem 1 ntersection of events means
MULTIPLICATION LAW OF PROBABILITY
Problem 1 If we flip a coin two times, what are the odds that all the events are
The multiplication law of
for it landing heads at least once? occurring together. Even if
Determine the probability that odd number probability is recognized by
a. 3:1 b. 1:3 one event holds false all
appears in the toss of a fair dice. the word ‘and’ joining the
c. 2:3 d. 3:2 will be false. The
a. 1/2 b. 1/3 probabilities.
c. 2/3 d. 1/6 Problem 1 intersection of events can
Note: The probability events A and B and
only be true if and only if all
Problem 1 If the odds in favor of an event occurring are C and ... N happening is given by
the events holds true.
Determine the probability that both numbers 7:5, what is the probability of the event P(A) x P(B) x P(C) x … x P(N) Note:
exceed 4 in the toss of 2 fair dice. occurring? Where: The probability of intersection of the
a. 1/2 b. 8/19 a. 5/7 b. 7/12 P(A) = the probability of event A
c. 2/7 d. 5/12 events M and N is given by:
c. 17/36 d. 5/12 P(B) = the probability of event B
SITUATIONAL PROBLEM: P(A∩B) = P(A) x P(B)
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS P(C) = the probability of event C
Where:
Eleven poker chips are numbered
If the probability of an event, P(N) = the probability of last event
P (A) = the probability of event A,
consecutively 1 through 10, with two of
A, is P(A), then the probability (multiple events larger than 3)
P (B) = the probability of event B.
them labeled with a 6 and placed in a jar. A
that the event would not
occur (also called the
chip is drawn at random. DEPENDENT EVENTS
complementary event) is Problem 1 UNION OF EVENTS The dependent events are the
1 – P(A). Union of events simply mean ones in which the occurrence
Find the odds of drawing a 6 from the jar.
the condition of occurrence or outcome of the first event
Problem 1 a. 1:3 b. 2:9
c. 3:1 d. 9:2 of wither of the events. It is is affecting the occurrence
A number is chosen at random from a set of not necessary that all or outcome of the next event
Problem 1 in line.
whole numbers from 1 to 50. Calculate the events must hold true. The
probability that the chosen number is not a Find the odds of not drawing a 6. condition of at least one Problem 1
perfect square. a. 1:3 b. 2:9 holds. More than one or
a. 7/50 b. 13/50 In a certain test 5 out of 20 students scored
c. 3:1 d. 9:2 even all events under the
an ‘A’. We chose three students at random
c. 43/50 d. 37/50
ADDITION LAW OF PROBABILITY union operation can be true out of the 20 students without replacement.
Problem 1 is recognized by the word ‘or’ simultaneously. Find the probability that all three are the
An airline reports that 94% of its flights joining the probabilities. Note: ones who scored an ‘A’.
a. 4/19 b. 1/6
c. 1/114 d. 113/114 Problem 1 Where: X and Y are mutually exclusive 1/2, determine the probability that she will
Problem 1 events. make at least one of the teams.
Given is a basket of fruits containing 4 a. 1.0 b. 0.50
A bag contains 5 white marbles, 3 black oranges, 5 apples and 1 pears. We pick three Problem 1 c. 0.58 d. 0.92
marbles and 2 green marbles. In each draw, a fruits with replacement from the basket. Find Eighty tickets are sold for a rock show. Problem 1
marble is drawn from the bag and not the probability of getting an orange and two Smith buys 10 tickets and Criss buys 20
replaced. In three draws, find the probability apples. tickets. One of tickets is randomly select as The probability that the Toronto Maple Leafs
of obtaining white, black and green in that a. 1/2 b. 1/3 the winning ticket. What is the probability will win their next game is 0.5. The
order. c. 2/3 d. 1/5 that Smith or Criss wins? probability that the Montreal Canadiens will
a. 1/3 b. 1/6 Problem 1 a. 1/4 b. 5/8 win their next game is 0.7. The probability
c. 1/12 d. 1/24 c. 3/8 d. 1/2 that they will both win is 0.35, determine the
A bag contains 3 pink candies and 7 green probability that one or the other will win.
Problem 1 Problem 1
candies. Two candies are taken out from the Assume they don’t play each other.
We have a bag containing 4 yellow, 5 green bag with replacement. Find the probability A bag contains 4 red, 2 green, and 2 blue a. 0.78 b. 0.85
and 6 orange candies. We draw two candies that both candies are pink. marbles. John is going to draw out a marble c. 0.68 d. 0.70
without replacement. Find the probability of a. 0.18 b. 0.09 without looking in the bag. What is the Problem 1
getting both candies green. c. 0.05 d. 0.30 probability that he will draw either a green or
a. 2/21 b. 1/3 Problem 1 a blue marble? A fair 6 sided die numbered 1 to 6 is rolled
c. 2/7 d. 4/7 a. 1/3 ` b. 1/4 once. Find the probability that the number
A bad contains 3 blue marbles,4 red c. 3/4 d. 1/2
Problem 1 obtained is either even or a prime number.
marbles, 2 white marbles, and 1 green
A jar contains 10 blue balls and 11 red balls. marble. You pick twice from the bag, with Problem 1 a. 1/3 b. 1/6
Two balls are drawn without replacement. replacement. What is the probability of c. 2/3 d. 5/6
What is the probability of a die showing a 2
What is the probability of getting two red getting a green marble, then a blue marble? or a 5? RELATIVE FREQUENCY
balls? a. 0.03 b. 0.05 a. 1/3 ` b. 1/2 A frequency is the number
a. 2/21 b. 11/42 c. 0.02 d. 0.01 c. 2/3 d. 1/6 that tells how many times a
c. 11/21 d. 121/420 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE data or an event is repeating
Problem 1 Mutually exclusive events If two events are not mutually exclusive, then in an experiment. It is
are two or more outcomes of the combined probability of these events is generally represented
A bag has 4 white cards and 5 blue cards.
We draw two cards from the bag one by one an event that cannot occur given by: graphically in form of
without replacement. Find the probability of at the same time. P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) histograms.
getting both cards white. Note: All complementary events are Where:
a. 0.18 b. 0.20 mutually exclusive, but all P (A) = the probability of event A
c. 0.30 d. 0.17 mutually exclusive events are not
P (B) = the probability of event B. Note:
INDEPENDENT EVENTS P(A∩B) = the probability of the intersection There are two different types of frequencies:
necessarily complementary. of events A and B. 1. Cumulative Frequency: It is the total of
The independent events are In this case the combined probability of
Problem 1 all the absolute frequencies of all the
the ones in which occurrence two events can be obtained by simply events that are below of at the particular
of the first event does not at adding up the individual properties of the The probability that Dana will make the point in a given list of events that is
all affect the occurrence of events: hockey team is 2/3. The probability that she formulated in an order.
the next event in line. will make the swimming team is 3/4. If the 2. Relative Frequency: It refers to the
P (X∪Y) = P (X) + P (Y)
probability of Dana making both teams is absolute frequency of an event that is
normalized by the total number of the If today is Sunday then find the probability rainy and traffic) the probability of being late Problem 1
given events. of rain today. is 0.25. You pick a random day.
a. 0.930 b. 0.005 A box contains 8 red, 3 white, and 9 blue
Problem 1 Problem 1
c. 0.995 d. 0.490 balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without
In a class of 42 students, 20 students go to What is the probability that it's not raining replacement, determine the probability that 2
Problem 1
school by school bus, 15 by car and 7 by and there is heavy traffic and I am not late? are red and 1 is white.
walk. Find the relative frequency of walk. A machine produces parts that are either a. 1/4 b. 1/2 a. 14/285 b. 1/1140
a. 0.36 b. 0.48 good (90%), slightly defective (2%), or c. 1/8 d. 1/3 c. 18/95 d. 7/95
c. 0.17 d. 0.25 obviously defective (8%). Produced parts get Problem 1 Problem 1
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY passed through an automatic inspection
machine, which is able to detect any part that What is the probability that I am late? A box contains 8 red, 3 white, and 9 blue
A conditional probability is
is obviously defective and discard it. What is a. 1/4 b. 11/48 balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without
the probability of one event
the quality of the parts that make it through c. 13/48 d. 1/3 replacement, determine the probability that 1
if another event occurred. of each color is drawn.
the inspection machine and get shipped? Problem 1
Let A and B be any two events associated with a. 14/285 b. 1/1140
a. 0.978 b. 0.956
a random experiment. Given that I arrived late at work, what is the c. 18/95 d. 7/95
c. 0.924 d. 0.891
The conditional probability of an event B is
the probability that the event will occur Problem 1
probability that it rained that day?
a. 1/4 b. 1/2
PROBABILITY OF “AT LEAST ONE”
given the knowledge that an event A has One Thousand copper rods a have the c. 1/8 d. 1/3 Problem 1
already occurred. This probability is properties shown in the following table. Chain Rule:
written P(B|A). A two dice are rolled. What is the
DIAMETER Let A, B and C be any three events associated
probability of at least one of the dice rolling
P  A B with a random experiment.
P  B A 
LENGTH Too Too a 6?
OK P(A∩B∩C)=P(A) x P(B|A) x P(C|A,B)
P  A thin thick a. 1/3 b. 5/18
Too short 10 5 5 PROBABILITY USING c. 11/36 d. 5/12
OK 40 902 7
Similarly P(A|B) reads as the conditional
probability of A given that B has already Too long 4 20 7 COMBINATORIAL ANALYSIS PROBABILITY USING
occurred. If the rod meets the length specification, find Problem 1 TREE DIAGRAM METHOD
PA B the probability that the rod meets the Problem 1
P  A B 
A box contains 8 red, 3 white, and 9 blue
diameter specification.
P  B a. 0.042 b. 0.950
balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without
Suppose that 2% of the clinic’s patients are
replacement, determine the probability that
c. 0.050 d. 0.993 known to have cancer. A blood test is
Problem 1 all 3 are red.
SITUATIONAL PROBLEM: developed that is positive in 98% of the
a. 14/285 b. 1/1140
Susan took two tests. The probability of her In my town, it's rainy one third of the days. patients with cancer but is also positive in
c. 18/95 d. 7/95
passing both tests is 0.6. The probability of Given that it is rainy, there will be heavy 3% of the patients who do not have cancer. If
her passing the first test is 0.8. What is the traffic with probability 1/2, and given that it Problem 1 a person who is chosen at random from the
probability of her passing the second test is not rainy, there will be heavy traffic with A box contains 8 red, 3 white, and 9 blue clinic’s patients is given the test and it comes
given that she has passed the first test? probability 1/4. If it's rainy and there is balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without out positive, what is the probability that the
a. 0.50 b. 0.75 heavy traffic, I arrive late for work with replacement, determine the probability that person actually has cancer?
c. 0.40 d. 0.60 probability 1/2. On the other hand, the all 3 are white. a. 0.02 b. 0.4
probability of being late is reduced to 1/8 if a. 14/285 b. 1/1140 c. 0.5 d. 0.6
Problem 1
it is not rainy and there is no heavy traffic. In c. 18/95 d. 7/95
The probability of raining on Sunday is 0.07. other situations (rainy and no traffic, not
Example of a probability distribution: a. 1/3 b. 4/9
Problem 1
Outcome x1 x2 … xn c. 5/9 d. None of these
The Department of Health (DOH) estimates
has 6% of Filipinos have diabetes. The
RANDOM VARIABLES AND Probability p1 p2 … pn SITUATIONAL PROBLEM:
A television game show has three payoffs
laboratory has developed a simple diagnostic PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION with the following probabilities
test for diabetes, which is 98% accurate for A random variable, usually written X, is a PARAMETERS Payoff(P) 0 500 5,000
people who have the disease and 95% variable whose possible values are numerical Symbols for Parameters:
outcomes of a random phenomenon. Probability 0.7 0.25 0.05
accurate for people who do not have it. If the Specs Sample Population
medical lab gives the test to a randomly Types of random variables: Problem 1
selected person, what is the probability that Mean 𝑥̅ μ
1. A discrete random variable is one which
the diagnosis is correct?
may take on only a countable number of Variance s2 σ2 What is the mean of the payoff variable?
a. 0.781 b. 0.882 distinct values such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,.. Standard a. 375 b. 1333
c. 0.993 d. 0.952 s σ c. 1833 d. 453
Discrete random variables are usually (but Deviation
not necessarily) counts. If a random Problem 1
variable can take only a finite number of MEAN OR EXPECTED VALUE
GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY
distinct values, then it must be discrete.  or E  x    xi pi What is the standard deviation of the payoff
Examples: variable?
Geometric probability is a tool  the number of children in a family See mathematical expectation. a. 361 b. 1083
to deal with the problem of  the Friday night attendance at a cinema c. 1816 d. 2248
infinite outcomes by measuring  the number of patients in a doctor's surgery VARIANCE
SITUATIONAL PROBLEM:
the number of outcomes
geometrically, in terms of
 the number of defective light bulbs in a box
of ten
2   
xi 2 pi   2 Companies proved to have violated pollution
laws are being fined various amounts with
length, area, or volume. 2. A continuous random variable is one
STANDARD DEVIATION the following probabilities:
which takes an infinite number of possible
Problem 1 Fine ($): 1000 10,000 50,000 100,000
values. Continuous random variables are
A dart is thrown at random onto a board, that usually measurements.
  
xi 2 pi   2 Probability: 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
has the shape of a circle, with radius of 14 Examples: Where:
 include height, weight Problem 1
cm. Calculate the probability that the dart xi = value of the ith outcome
 the amount of sugar in an orange What is the mean of the fine variable?
will hit the shaded region, outside the inner  the time required to run a mile pi = probability of the ith outcome
circle with radius of 7 cm. SITUATIONAL PROBLEM: a. 40,250 b. 43,250
a. 1/3 b. 1/4 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES Given the following sampling distribution: c. 23,400 d. 23,100
c. 2/3 d. 3/4 The probability distribution of a discrete Problem 1
X 0 1 2 3 4
Problem 1 random variable is a list of probabilities
associated with each of its possible values. It P(X) k 3k 2k k 2k What is the standard deviation of the payoff
Both the bus and you get to the bus stop at is also sometimes called the probability variable?
random times between 12pm and 1pm. function or the probability mass function. Problem 1 a. 39,118 b. 45,169
When the bus arrives, it waits for 5 minutes c. 31,350 d. 85,185
Characteristics of a probability What is the value of k?
before leaving. When you arrive, you wait
for 20 minutes before leaving if the bus
distribution of a discrete random variable: a. 9/10 b. 1/9 DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT
1. The probabilities of a discrete random
doesn't come. What is the probability that variable must sum to 1.
c. 9 d. None of these RANDOM VARIABLES
you catch the bus? 2. For each outcome “x” the probability is Problem 1 Two random variables are independent if
a. 0.33 b. 0.36 from 0 to 1.
What is P( X  2) ? they convey no information about each other
c. 0.75 d. 0.45 and, as a consequence, receiving information
about one of the two does not change our Where: a & b = real valued constants  or E  X   np probability of having 7 successes in 10
assessment of the probability distribution of attempts.
the other. B. For independent random variables
a. 0.203 b. 0.345
1. In general for any function of the random VARIANCE
In real life, we usually need to deal with more c. 0.092 d. 0.167
Var  X    2  npq
variable we have the formula:
than one random variable. For example, if you E[X Y] = E[X] E[Y] Problem 1
study physical characteristics of people in a
certain area, you might pick a person at random 2. Variances: STANDARD DEVIATION The ratio of boys to girls at birth in
and then look at his/her weight, height, etc. The Var[a] = 0 Singapore is quite high at 1.09:1. What
weight of the randomly chosen person is one   npq
proportion of Singapore families with
random variable, while his/her height is another Var[X ± Y] = Var[X] + Var[Y]
one. Not only do we need to study each random Problem 1 exactly 6 children will have at least 3 boys?
variable separately, but also we need to consider if
there is dependence (i.e., correlation) between
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY Suppose that 30% of travelers at the Atlanta
(Ignore the probability of multiple births.)
a. 0.298 b. 0.781
them. Is it true that a taller person is more likely DISTRIBUTION airport carry laptop computers. Determine
the expected value and standard deviation of
c. 0.142 d. 0.696
NORMAL PROBABILITY
to be heavier or not?
A binomial experiment is one that possesses
the total number of laptop computers in a
EXPECTATIONS OF RANDOM VARIABLES the following properties:
In probability and statistics, the expectation 1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials; random sample of 200 travelers at the DISTRIBUTION
or expected value (or mean) of X, where X is 2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be Atlanta airport. In probability theory, the normal (or
classified as a success or a failure (hence a. 60, 6.5 b. 60, 4.2
a discrete random variable, is a weighted c. 30, 6.5 d. 30, 4.2 Gaussian) distribution is a very common
average of the possible values that X can the name, binomial); continuous probability distribution.
take, each value being weighted according to 3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, Problem 1
the probability of that event occurring. remains constant from trial to trial and The normal distribution is sometimes
repeated trials are independent. Sixty-five percent of all divorce cases cite informally called the bell curve.
Basic Properties of Expectations: incompatibility as the underlying reason. If
The number of successes X in n trials of a four couples file for a divorce, what is the Many things closely follow a Normal
A. General binomial experiment is called a binomial probability that exactly two will state
1. In general for any function of the random Distribution:
variable we have the formula:
random variable.
incompatibility as the reason?  heights of people
E[a] = a The probability distribution of the random a. 0.104 b. 0.207  size of things produced by machines
variable X is called a binomial distribution, and c. 0.254 d. 0.311  errors in measurements
E[aX] = a E[X] is given by the formula:  blood pressure
Problem 1  marks on a test
E[a ± X] = a ± E[X] P  X   C  n, x  p x q n x
Hospital records show that of patients
E[a ± bX] = a ± bE[X] Where: suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of
E[(a ±X) b] = [a ± E(X)]b n = the number of trials it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly
x = 0, 1, 2, ... n selected patients, 4 will recover?
2. For any two random variables X and Y, we p = the probability of success in a single trial a. 0.179 b. 0.033
have: q = the probability of failure in a single trial c. 0.356 d. 0.132
E[X ± Y] = E[X] ± E[Y] (i.e. q = 1 − p)
C(n, x) is a combination Problem 1
3. Variances
Var[a ± X] = Var[X] P(X) gives the probability of successes in n In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8
binomial trials. of success in any attempt to make a
Var[a ± bX] = b2Var[X] telephone call. (This often depended on the
MEAN OR EXPECTED VALUE importance of the person making the call, or
Var[X ] = E[X2] - [E(X)]2
the operator's curiosity!) Calculate the
AREA UNDER THE NORMAL CURVE USING Problem 1  or E  X   np
INTEGRATION A radar unit is used to measure speeds of
The probability of a continuous normal variable
cars on a motorway. The speeds are normally
STANDARD DEVIATION
X found in a particular interval [x1, x2] is the
distributed with a mean of 90 km/hr and a   npq
area under the curve bounded by x1 and x2 and
is given by: standard deviation of 10 km/hr. What is the
probability that a car picked at random is AND Z-SCORE
P(X) 1  x  2
x2   travelling at more than 100 km/hr?
P  x1  X  x2  
1  X  np

 2 x1
e 2    dx a. 84% b. 16% Z
npq
c. 14% d. 88%
Note: SITUATIONAL PROBLEM:
x1 μ x2 The area is the probability which depends The number of vacation days taken by
σ1 σ2
upon the values of μ and σ. employees of a company is normally MORE PROBABILITY PROBLEMS
distributed with a mean of 14 days and a
THE STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION standard deviation of 3 days. For the next Problem 1
Properties of a normal distribution For simplicity of calculation of probability, employee, The probabilities of three teams A, B and C
 The mean, mode and median are all equal. let us standardize our normal curve, with
mean 0 and variance 1. Problem 1 winning a badminton competition are 1/3,
 The curve is symmetric at the center (i.e.
around the mean, μ). what is the probability that the number of 1/5 and 1/9 respectively. Calculate the
Alternate strategy for finding the probability
 Exactly half of the values are to the left of P(x1 ≤ X ≤ x2) when x1 and x2 are constants, days of vacation taken is less than 10 days? probability that either A or B or C will win.
center and exactly half the values are to the and X is a normal random variable with mean a. 95.44% b. 4.56% a. 8/15 ` b. 29/45
right. μ and standard deviation σ: c. 90.88% d. 9.12% c. 16/45 d. 7/15
 The total area under the curve is 1.
1) Specify the desired probability in terms of Problem 1 Problem 1
X.
what is the probability that the number of Of the coral reef species on the Great Barrier
Note: 2) Transform X, x1 and x2, by: days of vacation taken more than 21 days? Reef off Australia, 73% are poisonous. If a
In a normal distribution, only 2 parameters are STANDARD SCORES OR Z-SCORES a. 0.98% b. 99.02% tourist boat taking divers to different points
needed, namely μ and σ. We can transform all the observations of any c. 1.25% d. 98.75% off the reef encounters an average of 25 coral
normal random variable X with mean μ and NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO THE reef species, what are the mean and standard
STANDARD DEVIATION variance σ to a new set of observations of deviation for the expected number of
The Standard Deviation, σ is a measure of another normal random variable Z with mean 0 BINOMINAL PROBABILITY poisonous species seen?
how spread out numbers are and variance 1. DISTRIBUTION a. 6.75, 4.93 b. 18.25, 2.22
The empirical rule tells you what percentage The number of standard deviations from the For large n (say n > 20) and p not too near 0 c. 18.25, 4.93 d. 18.25, 8.88
of your data falls within a certain number of mean is also called the "Standard Score", or or 1 (say 0.05 < p < 0.95) the distribution Problem 1
standard deviations from the mean: "z-score". approximately follows the Normal
 68% of the data falls within one standard distribution. This can be used to find The probability that a man will hit a target is
X  2/3. If he shoots at the target until he hits it
deviation of the mean. z binomial probabilities.
 95% of the data falls within two standard  for the first time, find the probability that it
deviations of the mean. If X ~ binomial (n, p) where n > 20 and 0.05 will take him 5 shots to hit the target.
 99.7% of the data falls within three standard 3) Use the standard normal N(0,1) table, < p < 0.95 then approximately X has the a. 2/9 b. 2/81
typically referred to as the Z-table, to find Normal distribution with the following: c. 2/3 d. 2/243
deviations of the mean.
the desired probability.
MEAN OR EXPECTED VALUE
Problem 1 Imagine a game in which, on any play, a
player has a 20% chance of winning $3 and
Liliana has a bag of marbles. The bag an 80% chance of losing $1. The amount
contains 18 black, 15 red, 11 blue, and 8 won or lost on a single play is:
white marbles. Liliana randomly takes a red a. lost $0.4 b. won $0.3
marble from the bag and leaves the marble c. lost $0.2 d. won $0.1
on a table. What is the probability that she SITUATIONAL PROBLEM:
will next take a red or a white marble from The table below shows the counts by gender
the bag? and highest degree attained for 498
112 2 respondents in the General Social Survey
a. b.
2601 7 Sex A B C D E Total
11 22 Male 49 95 11 39 23 217
c. d.
26 51 Female 52 166 14 37 12 281
Total 100 261 25 76 35 498
Problem 1
A- No High School Degree
A student guessed the answers to five true- B - High School Degree
false questions on a quiz. What is the C – College
probability that the student guessed correctly D- Bachelor Degree
on all five questions? E- Graduate
1 1
a. b. Problem 1
32 16
1 1 What percent of the sample were males?
c. d. a. 43.6% b. 48.5%
2 4
c. 56.4% d. 77.2%
Problem 1
Problem 1
Hannah's House of Gambling has a roulette
wheel containing 38 numbers: zero (0), What percent of the sample were males with
double zero (00), and the numbers 1, 2, 3, ..., no high school degree?
Let X denote the number on which the ball a. 9.8% b. 20.3%
lands and u(X) denote the amount of money c. 22.6% d. 48.5%
paid to the gambler, such that: Problem 1
u(X) = $5 if X = 0
What percent of females had a graduate
u(X) = $10 if X = 00
degree?
u(X) = $1 if X is odd
a. 2.4% b. 4.3%
u(X) = $2 if X is even
c. 7.0% d. 56.4%
How much would I have to charge each
gambler to play in order to ensure that I
made some money (in dollars)?
a. 0.82 b. 1.56
c. 1.82 d. 0.45
Problem 1