MODELO LOGIT Y PROBIT

Modelo Logit

1. Problema de investigación:
Altos niveles de contaminación por falta de politicas de conservacion en la playa de chifron
Inadecuado uso de las playas de Chifron
Completo abandono de la playa, no tiene seguridad, servicios higiniecos
2. Hipotesis:
Los visitantes con un mayor nivel de educación e
ingresos altos tienen mayor disposición a pagar,
mientras mayores son los precios hipoteticos la
disposición a pagar disminuye.
Altos niveles de contaminación por el uso inadecuado y
3. Variable dependiente
1=Dispuesto a pagar
0=No esá dispuesto a pagar
Variables independientes
Ingreso
Precio hipotetico
Nivel de educacion
Genero
lugar de residencia

Los visitantes varones residentes en la zona

urbana con educación superior e ingresos altos
tienen la mayor disposición a pagar. Sin
embargo, cuando el precio hipotetico aumenta la
disposición a pagar disminuye.
MODELO 1: LOGIT
Logistic regression Number of obs = 252
LR chi2(7) = 106.23
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -112.81457 Pseudo R2 = 0.3201
dap Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]

ing 0.0009901 0.0007886 1.26 0.209 -0.0005556 0.0025357

ph -1.295221 0.2408833 -5.38 0 -1.767344 -0.8230983
edu 0.3900587 0.5066592 0.77 0.441 -0.6029752 1.383093
g -0.6927542 0.3358405 -2.06 0.039 -1.35099 -0.0345188
lo 1.744149 0.5065382 3.44 0.001 0.7513525 2.736946
e -0.5426537 0.2899046 -1.87 0.061 -1.110856 0.0255489
e2 0.0096949 0.0047435 2.04 0.041 0.0003978 0.018992
_cons 8.119778 4.254419 1.91 0.056 -0.2187294 16.45828

Paso 1: Revisar los signos esperados de acuerdo a la hipótesis.

paso 2: Realizar la prueba de hipótesis a nivel individual y en forma conjunta.

Prueba Z (en forma individual)

Ho: el coeficiente no es significativo

Regla de decisión: Por ejemplo a un nivel de significancia de 5%

Si prob(P>z) es menor o igual que 0.05, se rechaza la Ho.

Conclusión: es significativo estadísticamente

NOTA: LOS NIVELES DE SIGNIFICANCIA PUEDEN SER DE: 1%; 5%; 10%; 15%, INCLUSIVE 20%.

Series te tiempo: 1% hasta 5%

Corte transversal: 5% hasta 15%

Nota: EN EL METODO DE VALORACION CONTIGENTE ES

IMPORTANTE CONSIDERAR LA VARAIBLE INGRESO Y LA VARIABL
PRECIO HIPOTETICO

MODELO 5: LOGIT (el mejor modelo)

Logistic regression Number of obs = 252
LR chi2(3) = 83.09
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -124.38352 Pseudo R2 = 0.2504

dap Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]

ing 0.0014867 0.0007103 2.09 0.036 0.0000946 0.0028789

ph -1.432383 0.2141651 -6.69 0 -1.852139 -1.012627
edu 1.274415 0.4205079 3.03 0.002 0.4502347 2.098596
_cons 0.8385947 0.7028632 1.19 0.233 -0.5389919 2.216181

^
Pr( DAP  1)   (0.8385  1.432383 ph  0.0014867 Ing  1.27441
Prueba de razon de verosimilitud (LR)

Ho: Todos los coeficiente de las variables no son significativos.

Nota: no incluye el intercepto
Por ejemplo a un nivel de significancia de 5%
Si prob(P>z) es menor o igual que 0.05, se rechaza la Ho.
Conclusión: es significativo estadísticamente en forma conjunta

NOTA: LOS NIVELES DE SIGNIFICANCIA PUEDEN SER DE: 1%; 5%; 10%; 15%, INCLUSIVE 20%.
Series te tiempo: 1% hasta 5%
Corte transversal: 5% hasta 15%

Pseudo R^2 (R^2 Mc Fadden)

Pseudo R2 = 0.2504 Se encuentra entre 0 y 1

25.04%
Cuando es "cero" no hay ajuste
Cuando es "uno" hay un ajuste perfecto

Los cambios en la disposición a pagar están siendo explicados en un 25% por las variables: ingreso, precio hipotetico y el ni

Efectos marginales

variable d Std. Err. z P>z [ 95% C.I. ] X

ing .000314 0.00014 2.2 0.028 0.000034 0.000595 1019.44

ph -.3030271 0.04506 -6.73 0 -0.39134 -0.214714 1.75
edu* .2923 0.09945 2.94 0.003 0.097475 0.487305 0.769841

Si el ingreso del visitantanta en promedio aumenta en un Nuevo Sol, la probabilidad de estar dispuesto a pagar aumenta en

si el precio hipotetico en promedio aumenta en un Nuevo Sol, la probabilidad de estar dispuesto a pagar disminuye en 0.3
1=eduación superior
0=no tenia educación superior

Los visitantes con educación superior tienen una mayor probabilidad de disposición a pagar en 0.2923 con relación a los

Disposición a pagar para cada visitante con el modelo 5

ión por el uso inadecuado y por la ausencia de políticas de conservación.

252
106.23
0.0000
0.3201
Conclusión

no es significativo
es significativo
no es significativo
es significativo
es significativo
no es significativo
es significativo
no es significativo

Ejemplo de Melcochita

Ho: Melco no es padre

 ADN+

N CONTIGENTE ES
LE INGRESO Y LA VARIABLE

252
83.09
0.0000
0.2504

Conclusion

es significativo
es significativo
es significativo
no es significativo

14867 Ing  1.274415edu )

eso, precio hipotetico y el nivel de educacación superior.

spuesto a pagar aumenta en 0.000314

o a pagar disminuye en 0.303027

0.2923 con relación a los que no tienen educación superior.

 DAP
PH 0 1 Total

.5 5 37 42
1 8 34 42
1.5 3 39 42
2 23 19 42
2.5 25 17 42
3 29 13 42

Total 93 159 252

EN PORCENTAJES
DAP
PH 0 1 Total

.5 12% 88% 100%

1 19% 81% 100%
1.5 7% 93% 100%
2 55% 45% 100%
2.5 60% 40% 100%
3 69% 31% 100%

De 42 visitantes, el 88% de los visitantes están dsipuestos a pagar S/.

0.50; sin embargo, este porcentaje disminuye a 31% cuando el precio
aumenta hasta S/. 3, esto implica que a un mayor precio hipotetico el
porcentaje de disposición a pagar disminuye.

Entre los precios hipoteticos, el más aceptable resulta S/. 1.50, que representa
el 93% de 42 encuestados.

DAP
g 0 1 Total

0 38 76 114
1 55 83 138

Total 93 159 252

EN PORCENTAJES
DAP
g 0 1 Total
0 33% 67% 100%
1 40% 60% 100%

DAP

dap=a+bedad+cedad^2

b>0
c<0

0 65
edad
 Genero Edad Estado Civil Educación supeOcupación Lugar de Orige
Obs
g e ec edu o LO
1 1 23 0 0 0 1
2 1 26 0 1 1 1
3 1 38 1 1 0
4 1 40 1 1 0 1
5 1 0 0 0 1
^ 6 1 42 0 1 1 0
Pr( DAP  1) 7  (0.8385
1  1.432383
25 ph 0 0.0014867
0 Ing  11.274415edu
0 )
8 1 21 0 0 0 0
9 0 42 1 1 0 1
10 1 45 1 1 0 1
11 1 33 1 0 1
 ' X i^
0e
12
13
1
0
28
29
0
0 Pr ob
0 1.2
0 (Y * 1 0 ) 
Pr(DAP
1
1
 1) 

 'X
14
15
1
1
56
24
0
0
1
1
1 1
1
1 e
1
1
i

16 1 34 0 1 0.8 1 1
17 1 53 1 1 0 1
18 1 32 0 0 0.6 1 0
19 0 45 1 1 1 1
20 1 40 1 1 0.4 1 0
21 1 40 1 1 0 1
22 0 60 1 1 0.2 0 1
23
24 C  1
0

Ln 1  e29
28   1
 0 0.0014867
Ln1(1  e 0.8385
1 0
1
1
Ing 1.274415
0
1
edu
)
 2.36
25 1  63 1 1  1 .
0432383
1
1000 2000
1
3000 4000

26 0 37 1 0 1 0
27 0 17 0 0 1 1
28 0 49 1 1 1 1
29 1 52 1 1 0 1
30 1 18 0 1 1 1
31 1 22 0 1 1 1
32 1 41 1 0 1 1
33 0 30 1 1 1 1
34 1 47 1 1 1 1
35 0 34 1 1 1 1
36 1 35 1 1 0 1
37 0 24 0 0 1 0
38 0 52 1 0 1 0
39 1 58 1 1 1 1
40 1 58 1 1 1 1
41 0 60 1 1 1 1
42 0 31 1 0 1 0
43 0 37 1 1 1 1
44 1 47 1 0 1 0
45 1 31 0 1 0 1
46 0 27 0 1 1 1
47 0 55 1 1 0 0
48 0 20 0 0 0 0
49 1 25 0 1 1 1
50 0 25 0 0 1 1
51 1 25 0 0 1 0
52 1 26 0 1 0 1
53 1 30 0 0 0 0
54 1 27 0 0 1 0
55 0 26 0 1 1 1
56 1 46 1 1 0 1
57 0 27 1 1 0 1
58 0 17 0 0 1 0
59 0 21 0 0 0 0
60 0 30 1 0 0 0
61 0 28 0 1 0 1
62 1 40 0 1 0 1
63 1 38 1 1 1 1
64 1 38 0 0 0 0
65 0 30 0 1 0 1
66 1 25 0 1 0 1
67 0 26 0 1 1 1
68 1 45 0 1 0 0
69 0 30 0 1 0 1
70 0 28 0 1 1 1
71 1 35 0 1 1 1
72 1 24 0 1 1 1
73 0 38 1 1 0 1
74 1 40 1 1 0 1
75 0 18 0 0 0 0
76 1 38 1 0 1 1
77 1 38 1 1 1 1
78 1 40 1 1 1 1
79 0 30 1 1 0 1
80 0 36 1 1 1 0
81 0 28 0 0 1 0
82 0 37 0 1 1 1
83 1 25 0 1 1 1
84 0 18 0 1 0 1
85 1 23 0 0 1 1
86 1 27 0 0 1 1
87 0 30 1 0 1 1
88 1 19 0 1 1 0
89 0 45 1 1 0 1
90 1 35 1 1 0 1
91 1 35 0 1 0 1
92 1 34 1 1 0 1
93 1 37 0 1 1 0
94 0 32 0 1 0 1
95 0 27 0 1 1 1
96 1 32 0 1 1 1
97 0 27 0 1 1 1
98 0 29 0 1 0 1
99 0 24 0 1 0 1
100 0 30 0 1 0 1
101 1 28 1 0 0 0
102 0 27 0 1 0 1
103 0 37 1 1 1 0
104 0 22 0 1 0 1
105 0 30 0 0 1 1
106 0 35 0 1 1 0
107 1 64 1 1 1 1
108 0 26 0 1 1 1
109 0 74 1 1 1 0
110 1 76 0 1 1 1
111 1 42 1 1 1 1
112 1 28 0 1 1 1
113 0 28 0 1 1 0
114 1 45 1 1 1 1
115 1 67 1 1 1 1
116 0 35 1 1 1 1
117 0 42 1 1 1 1
118 0 33 0 1 0 1
119 1 40 1 1 0 1
120 0 39 1 0 1 0
121 1 23 0 1 1 1
122 1 35 1 1 0 1
123 0 34 1 1 0 1
124 0 29 1 1 0 1
125 0 28 1 1 0 0
126 1 29 1 1 0 1
127 1 29 1 1 0 1
128 0 29 1 1 0 1
129 1 26 0 1 0 1
130 0 20 0 0 0 0
131 1 29 0 1 0 1
132 0 24 1 1 0 1
133 1 24 0 1 0 1
134 0 29 1 1 0 1
135 0 37 1 1 0 1
136 1 26 0 1 0 1
137 1 38 1 1 1 1
138 0 30 1 1 0 1
139 1 29 0 1 0 0
140 0 30 1 1 0 0
141 1 20 0 1 1 0
142 0 24 0 1 0 1
143 0 24 0 1 0 1
144 1 24 0 1 0 1
145 0 25 0 1 0 1
146 1 28 1 1 0 1
147 1 27 0 1 0 1
148 0 29 0 1 0 1
149 1 28 1 1 0 1
150 1 28 0 1 0 1
151 0 27 0 1 0 1
152 1 30 1 1 0 1
153 0 28 1 1 0 1
154 1 27 1 1 0 1
155 0 30 1 1 0 1
156 0 26 0 1 0 1
157 1 31 1 1 0 1
158 0 28 1 1 1 1
159 0 26 0 0 0 0
160 0 31 1 0 0 0
161 0 30 1 0 0 0
162 1 25 0 0 0 0
163 1 27 0 1 0 1
164 1 29 1 1 0 1
165 0 26 0 1 0 1
166 1 24 0 1 0 0
167 1 28 1 1 0 1
168 1 29 0 1 0 1
169 1 25 0 1 0 0
170 0 30 1 1 0 1
171 1 28 0 1 1 0
172 1 30 1 1 0 1
173 0 25 0 1 0 1
174 1 29 0 1 0 1
175 1 26 0 0 0 1
176 1 30 0 0 0 1
177 1 28 1 0 0 1
178 0 29 1 1 0 1
179 1 39 1 1 0 1
180 1 26 0 1 0 1
181 1 32 1 1 0 1
182 0 27 1 1 1 1
183 1 26 0 1 0 1
184 0 31 1 0 1 0
185 0 27 0 1 1 1
186 1 35 1 1 1 1
187 1 30 1 1 0 1
188 0 29 0 1 0 1
189 1 38 1 1 0 1
190 1 38 1 0 1 0
191 0 29 1 0 0 0
192 1 28 1 0 1 0
193 0 30 1 1 1 1
194 0 27 0 1 0 1
195 0 27 0 0 0 0
196 1 30 1 1 0 1
197 1 35 1 1 0 1
198 0 28 0 1 0 1
199 0 32 1 1 0 1
200 1 30 1 1 0 1
201 1 31 1 0 0 0
202 0 27 0 0 0 0
203 1 28 0 0 0 0
204 0 20 0 0 0 0
205 1 30 0 1 0 1
206 1 28 1 1 0 1
207 0 30 1 1 0 1
208 1 36 1 1 0 1
209 0 35 1 1 0 1
210 1 22 0 1 0 1
211 1 25 0 1 0 0
212 1 30 1 1 0 1
213 0 28 1 1 0 1
214 1 29 1 0 0 0
215 1 30 1 1 0 1
216 0 45 1 1 0 0
217 1 27 0 1 0 1
218 1 30 1 1 0 1
219 0 29 0 1 0 1
220 0 30 0 1 0 1
221 1 27 1 1 0 1
222 1 30 1 1 0 1
223 0 28 1 1 0 0
224 0 30 1 1 0 0
225 1 26 1 1 0 1
226 0 28 0 1 1 1
227 1 30 0 0 1 0
228 0 28 0 1 0 1
229 1 25 0 1 0 1
230 0 28 0 1 0 1
231 1 30 1 1 0 1
232 1 28 0 1 0 1
233 1 30 1 0 0 1
234 0 26 1 0 0 1
235 0 28 1 0 0 0
236 0 30 1 1 0 1
237 1 28 1 1 0 1
238 1 30 1 1 0 1
239 0 26 0 0 0 0
240 1 29 1 1 0 1
241 0 30 1 1 0 1
242 1 28 1 1 0 1
243 0 24 1 1 0 0
244 1 28 0 1 0 1
245 0 30 1 1 0 1
246 1 29 1 1 0 1
247 0 27 1 0 0 0
248 1 30 1 1 0 1
249 1 29 1 1 0 1
250 0 27 1 0 0 0
251 1 30 1 1 0 1
252 1 29 1 1 0 1
 dap pago Ingreso
DAP PH ING DAP_media Pr_logit pr_logit pr_probit pr_probit
1 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
1 0.5 1200 2.73464239 0.96010755 0.9601097 0.972448026 0.9724472
0 0.5 800 2.33067093 0.92996672 0.9299691 0.938260727 0.9382597
1 0.5 800 2.33067093 0.92996672 0.9299691 0.938260727 0.9382597
1 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
1 0.5 800 2.33067093 0.92996672 0.9299691 0.938260727 0.9382597
0 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
1 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
1 0.5 1200 2.73464239 0.96010755 0.9601097 0.972448026 0.9724472
1 0.5 1600 3.1435552 0.97758902 0.9775907 0.989155645 0.9891552
 ' X i^ 1 0.5 1600 2.27348722 0.92422052 0.9775907 0.939192535 0.9891552
e DAP 0 1)  0.5(0.465655
1    ' 0.5 
 Pr( X
800
800
 0.8570088 ph  0.0009443 Ing  0.7477451 edu )
1.50204762
1.50204762
0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
 'X
1 e i 1
0
0.5
0.5
800
500
2.33067093
2.03308515
0.92996672 0.9299691 0.938260727 0.9382597
0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305
1 0.5 800 2.33067093 0.92996672 0.9299691 0.938260727 0.9382597
1 0.5 500 2.03308515 0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305
1 0.5 500 1.23488112
Column M 0.70386126 0.7038661 0.694729231 0.6947274
1 0.5 800 2.33067093 0.92996672 0.9299691 0.938260727 0.9382597
1 0.5 1400 2.93864405 0.97006104 0.9700629 0.982437556 0.9824369
1 0.5 1400 2.93864405 0.97006104 0.9700629 0.982437556 0.9824369
1 0.5 500 2.03308515 0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305
1.274415edu 1 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
)
1  2.3650.5
 2.40 1000 2.5318524 0.94702564 0.947028 0.958112962 0.958112
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
1 0.5 1000 2.5318524 0.94702564 0.947028 0.958112962 0.958112
1 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
1
1 0.5 800 1.50204762 0.78780805 0.7878143 0.785991806 0.7859893
1 0.5 500 2.03308515 0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305
1 0.5 1000 2.5318524 0.94702564 0.947028 0.958112962 0.958112
1 0.5 500 2.03308515 0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305
1 0.5 500 0
2.03308515 0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305
1 0.5 1600 2.27348722 0.92422052 0.9242257 0.939192535 0.9391904
1 0.5 500 2.03308515 0.89474645 0.8947487 0.895631456 0.8956305 0
Axis Title
1 0.5 2000 3.55524796 0.98750951 0.9875107 0.996246738 0.9962465
1 0.5 1400 2.93864405 0.97006104 0.9700629 0.982437556 0.9824369 0
1 0.5 3000 4.58984196 0.99714811 0.9971485 0.999851439 0.9998514
1 0.5 1000 1.6884278 0.83328684 0.8332933 0.836814708 0.836812 0
1 0.5 1000 1.6884278 0.83328684 0.8332933 0.836814708 0.836812
1 0.5 1800 3.34914723 0.9832568 0.9832582 0.993515796 0.9935154
1 0.5 5000 6.66475828 0.99985379 0.9998538 0.999999982 1.0000
1 0.5 5000 6.66475828 0.99985379 0.9998538 0.999999982 1.0000
0 0.5 500 1.23488112 0.70386126 0.7038661 0.694729231 0.6947274
1 1 1600 3.1435552 0.95518434 0.9551876 0.969068144 0.9690669
1 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 3000 4.58984196 0.99418063 0.9941815 0.99928689 0.9992868
1 1 1000 2.5318524 0.89727683 0.8972812 0.903317929 0.9033161
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
0 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
0 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 1200 1.8798342 0.76678608 0.7667961 0.770897618 0.7708937
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 3500 5.10829112 0.99722431 0.9972247 0.9998746 0.9998746
1 1 1800 3.34914723 0.96632312 0.9663259 0.980115069 0.9801141
1 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
0 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
0 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 1000 2.5318524 0.89727683 0.8972812 0.903317929 0.9033161
1 1 1000 1.6884278 0.70949068 0.7095003 0.709849875 0.7098461
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 500 2.03308515 0.80596108 0.8059648 0.796317992 0.7963164
0 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 1200 2.73464239 0.9216274 0.9216315 0.931828872 0.9318272
1 1 1800 3.34914723 0.96632312 0.9663259 0.980115069 0.9801141
1 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
0 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 1600 3.1435552 0.95518434 0.9551876 0.969068144 0.9690669
1 1 1600 3.1435552 0.95518434 0.9551876 0.969068144 0.9690669
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
0 1 800 1.50204762 0.64464253 0.6446511 0.642103179 0.6420999
1 1 500 2.03308515 0.80596108 0.8059648 0.796317992 0.7963164
0 1 800 2.33067093 0.86645674 0.8664611 0.866894654 0.8668928
1 1 500 2.03308515 0.80596108 0.8059648 0.796317992 0.7963164
1 1.5 500 1.23488112 0.36201484 0.3620202 0.364029669 0.3640276
1 1.5 500 1.23488112 0.36201484 0.3620202 0.364029669 0.3640276
1 1.5 500 1.23488112 0.36201484 0.3620202 0.364029669 0.3640276
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 1400 2.93864405 0.88552408 0.8855307 0.894333221 0.8943304
1 1.5 500 2.03308515 0.66991159 0.6699167 0.655435331 0.6554334
1 1.5 1400 2.93864405 0.88552408 0.8855307 0.894333221 0.8943304
1 1.5 1200 2.73464239 0.85176038 0.8517675 0.855665706 0.8556628
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 1200 2.73464239 0.85176038 0.8517675 0.855665706 0.8556628
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 2800 4.38259512 0.98412793 0.98413 0.994943288 0.9949428
0 1.5 500 1.23488112 0.36201484 0.3620202 0.364029669 0.3640276
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 500 1.23488112 0.36201484 0.3620202 0.364029669 0.3640276
1 1.5 500 2.03308515 0.66991159 0.6699167 0.655435331 0.6554334
1 1.5 1400 2.93864405 0.88552408 0.8855307 0.894333221 0.8943304
1 1.5 1200 2.73464239 0.85176038 0.8517675 0.855665706 0.8556628
1 1.5 500 2.03308515 0.66991159 0.6699167 0.655435331 0.6554334
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 1600 3.1435552 0.91238863 0.9123946 0.924891711 0.9248893
0 1.5 500 2.03308515 0.66991159 0.6699167 0.655435331 0.6554334
1 1.5 1600 3.1435552 0.91238863 0.9123946 0.924891711 0.9248893
1 1.5 1600 3.1435552 0.91238863 0.9123946 0.924891711 0.9248893
1 1.5 800 2.33067093 0.76020344 0.7602103 0.75279985 0.7527971
1 1.5 1600 3.1435552 0.91238863 0.9123946 0.924891711 0.9248893
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 1200 2.73464239 0.85176038 0.8517675 0.855665706 0.8556628
1 1.5 800 1.50204762 0.46988156 0.4698908 0.474318619 0.4743152
1 1.5 1000 2.5318524 0.81017308 0.8101802 0.808446788 0.8084438
1 1.5 1200 2.73464239 0.85176038 0.8517675 0.855665706 0.8556628
1 1.5 1600 3.1435552 0.91238863 0.9123946 0.924891711 0.9248893
1 1.5 1400 2.93864405 0.88552408 0.8855307 0.894333221 0.8943304
0 1.5 900 2.43103143 0.78624958 0.7862567 0.78164383 0.7816409
1 1.5 1200 2.73464239 0.85176038 0.8517675 0.855665706 0.8556628
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 700 1.41115117 0.27180553 0.271812 0.278483461 0.2784809
1 2 1600 3.1435552 0.83575327 0.8357635 0.843815229 0.8438111
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
0 2 800 2.33067093 0.60768789 0.6076968 0.600569902 0.6005666
0 2 600 2.13161484 0.53500855 0.5350155 0.526296159 0.5262936
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
0 2 700 2.23083945 0.57173507 0.5717431 0.563714051 0.5637111
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
0 2 800 2.33067093 0.60768789 0.6076968 0.600569902 0.6005666
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
0 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2 700 1.41115117 0.27180553 0.271812 0.278483461 0.2784809
1 2 800 1.50204762 0.30220679 0.3022146 0.311033639 0.3110306
0 2 800 1.50204762 0.30220679 0.3022146 0.311033639 0.3110306
0 2 100 0.91030012 0.13267614 0.1326766 0.124263901 0.1242637
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
0 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
0 2 800 2.33067093 0.60768789 0.6076968 0.600569902 0.6005666
1 2 1000 2.5318524 0.67588919 0.6758994 0.671363925 0.67136
1 2 1200 2.73464239 0.7373584 0.7373692 0.736483777 0.7364795
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 800 2.33067093 0.43080003 0.4308092 0.431057732 0.4310544
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 1000 1.6884278 0.22172142 0.2217294 0.231911282 0.231908
1 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
1 2.5 1200 2.73464239 0.5783716 0.5783852 0.580838137 0.5808331
0 2.5 1200 2.73464239 0.5783716 0.5783852 0.580838137 0.5808331
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
1 2.5 1200 2.73464239 0.5783716 0.5783852 0.580838137 0.5808331
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 800 2.33067093 0.43080003 0.4308092 0.431057732 0.4310544
1 2.5 1200 2.73464239 0.5783716 0.5783852 0.580838137 0.5808331
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
1 2.5 1200 2.73464239 0.5783716 0.5783852 0.580838137 0.5808331
0 2.5 1400 2.93864405 0.64872334 0.6487382 0.652802628 0.652797
0 2.5 1200 2.73464239 0.5783716 0.5783852 0.580838137 0.5808331
1 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 1000 1.6884278 0.22172142 0.2217294 0.231911282 0.231908
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
0 2.5 800 1.50204762 0.17465299 0.1746583 0.178413769 0.1784115
0 2.5 500 1.23488112 0.11930661 0.119309 0.114156285 0.1141553
1 2.5 800 2.33067093 0.43080003 0.4308092 0.431057732 0.4310544
1 2.5 900 2.43103143 0.46756616 0.4675766 0.468416132 0.4684123
0 2.5 1000 2.5318524 0.50468791 0.5046995 0.506054953 0.5060506
0 2.5 800 2.33067093 0.43080003 0.4308092 0.431057732 0.4310544
0 2.5 800 2.33067093 0.43080003 0.4308092 0.431057732 0.4310544
1 2.5 900 2.43103143 0.46756616 0.4675766 0.468416132 0.4684123
1 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
0 3 700 1.41115117 0.08182056 0.081823 0.074318671 0.0743176
1 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 700 2.23083945 0.24168763 0.2416936 0.243021476 0.2430191
1 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
1 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
0 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
1 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
1 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 800 1.50204762 0.09370661 0.0937098 0.088518994 0.0885176
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 700 2.23083945 0.24168763 0.2416936 0.243021476 0.2430191
1 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 800 1.50204762 0.09370661 0.0937098 0.088518994 0.0885176
1 3 800 1.50204762 0.09370661 0.0937098 0.088518994 0.0885176
0 3 600 1.3220292 0.07132352 0.0713254 0.061927615 0.0619268
1 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 600 1.3220292 0.07132352 0.0713254 0.061927615 0.0619268
1 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 600 2.13161484 0.21549431 0.215499 0.214458487 0.2144566
1 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
1 3 800 2.33067093 0.26996911 0.2699764 0.273525067 0.2735222
0 3 900 2.43103143 0.30024966 0.3002585 0.30581213 0.3058087
0 3 600 1.3220292 0.07132352 0.0713254 0.061927615 0.0619268
1 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
0 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
0 3 600 1.3220292 0.07132352 0.0713254 0.061927615 0.0619268
0 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
0 3 1000 2.5318524 0.33238021 0.3323905 0.339683782 0.3396798
 dap Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]

ing 0.0009443 0.0004161 2.27 0.023 0.0001287 0.0017599

ph -0.8570088 0.1199126 -7.15 0 -1.092033 -0.6219845
edu 0.7477451 0.2404307 3.11 0.002 0.2765096 1.218981
_cons 0.465655 0.4048083 1.15 0.25 -0.3277548 1.259065

1.2

1
0.7477451 edu )
0.8

0.6
Axis Title
Colu
0.4 Line

0.2

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Axis Title

1.2

0.8

0.6
Axis Title
Column P
Linear (Column P)
0.4

0.2

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Axis Title
 1.2

0.8

0.6
Column P

0.4

0.2

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

CONCLUSION:
Entre el modelo Logit y Probit, para este caso se recomienda estimar la DAP con el modelo Logit, dado que el
 Column P
Linear (Column P)

3 3.5

Column P
Linear (Column P)
el modelo Logit, dado que el objetivo de la política de conservación es la sostenibilidad del recurso turistico (playa).
 Rubros
0 2013 2014
(+) Ingreso total 10,656.00 12,787.20
Ingreso por adultos 7,776.00 9,331.20
Tarifa adultos 2.5 2.4
Numero de visitantes adultos 3,240 3,888
Ingreso por niños 2,880 3,456.00
Tarifa por niño 1.3 1.2
Numero de visitantes niños 2,400 2,880
(-) Egreso total 1,987.60 19,700.00 19,700.00
Costo de inversión 1,987.60
Costo de mantenimiento 1,700.00 1,700.00
Costo de Operación 18,000.00 18,000.00
Flujo neto -1,987.60 -9,044.00 -6,912.80

VAN (10%) 24,782.59

TIR 24%
Inversión total por 04 años sépticos
PRECIO
MATERIALES UNIDAD CANTIDAD
UNITARIO
 9044 .00 6,912 .80 4,355 .36 1,286 .43 2,396 .28 6,815 .54 12 ,118 .65
LadrilloVAN  1,987 .60 
artesanal  
Ciento  4 4  
S/.5 55.00 
(1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) 6 (1  0.10 )
2 3
Cemento Rumí bolsas 8 S/. 21.00
 9044 .00 6,912 .80Planchas 4,355 .36 1,286 .43 2,396 .28 6,815 .54 12 ,118 .6
VAN  onduline
Calamina 1,987 .60     8  
S/. 15.00 
Codos de plástico de 42” (1  TIR ) (1  TIR )unidades
(1  TIR ) (1  TIR16) (1  TIRS/. (1  TIR ) 6 (1  TIR
2 3 4 5
) 4.50
Fierros de ½ Varillas 6 S/. 25.00
Tuberías de 4" unidades 12 S/. 14.80
Ocre Unidades 4 S/. 10.00
Caños unidad 4 S/. 15.00
Puerta 2.20X0.90 m unidad 4 S/. 120.00
Pintura galón 1 S/. 20.00
Inodoro unidad 4 S/. 120.00
TOTAL

Costo de mantenimiento anual

PRECIO
MATERIALES UNIDAD CANTIDAD
UNITARIO
Tachos de basura de plastico unidades 4 S/. 10.00
Paños de limpieza unidades 4 S/. 2.00
Esponjas de cera unidades 8 S/. 1.50
Guantes de hule unidades 8 S/. 5.00
Escobilla para inodoros unidades 4 S/. 2.00
Detergente bolsas 4 S/. 5.50
Lejía unidades 8 S/. 1.50
Escoba unidades 6 S/. 8.00
Recogedor unidades 4 S/. 2.50
Bolsas de basura ciento 20 S/. 15.00
jabon liquido unidades 16 S/. 5.00
Papel higienico bolsas 20 S/. 14.00
costo de instalacion personas 4 S/. 210.00
TOTAL

Costo de Operación anual

PRECIO
PERSONAL UNIDAD CANTIDAD
UNITARIO
Personal de limpieza personal 1 750
Personal de control personal 1 750
TOTAL
 Años
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
15,344.64 18,413.57 22,096.28 26,515.54 31,818.65 38,182.37 45,818.85 54,982.62
11,197.44 13,436.93 16,124.31 19,349.18 23,219.01 27,862.81 33,435.38 40,122.45
2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
4,666 5,599 6,718 8,062 9,675 11,610 13,931 16,718
4,147.20 4,976.64 5,971.97 7,166.36 8,599.63 10,319.56 12,383.47 14,860.17
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
3,456 4,147 4,977 5,972 7,166 8,600 10,320 12,383
19,700.00 19,700.00 19,700.00 19,700.00 19,700.00 19,700.00 19,700.00 19,700.00

1,700.00 1,700.00 1,700.00 1,700.00 1,700.00 1,700.00 1,700.00 1,700.00

18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00 18,000.00
-4,355.36 -1,286.43 2,396.28 6,815.54 12,118.65 18,482.37 26,118.85 35,282.62

SI VAN>0, EXISTEN BENEFICIOS POR CONSERVAR LA PLAYA

LA RENTABILIDAD PROMEDIO ANUAL DE APLICAR UNA PLOTICA DE CONSERVACIONES ES DE 24%

SU TOTAL
.28 6,815 .54 12 ,118 .65 18 ,48 .37 26 ,118 .85 35,282 .62
 
S/.6220.00     24 ,782 .5875
10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) (1  0.10 ) 9 (1  0.10 )10
5 7 8
S/. 168.00
.28 6,815 S/.
.54120.00 12 ,118 .65 18,48 .37 26 ,118 .85 35,282 .62
     0
R) 5
(1  TIRS/.) 72.00
6
(1  TIR ) 7 (1  TIR ) 8 (1  TIR ) 9 (1  TIR )10
S/. 150.00
S/. 177.60
S/. 40.00
S/. 60.00
S/. 480.00
S/. 20.00
S/. 480.00
S/. 1,987.60

SU TOTAL

S/. 40.00
S/. 8.00
S/. 12.00
S/. 40.00
 S/. 8.00
S/. 22.00
S/. 12.00
S/. 48.00
S/. 10.00
S/. 300.00
S/. 80.00
S/. 280.00
S/. 840.00
S/. 1,700.00

MESES SU TOTAL

12 9000
12 9000
18000