CPEC Questions Anjum Altaf

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\langfenp2052 \cf8 \caps0 Questions on CPEC}{\b1 \fs28 \kerning44 \dbch \af2
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\langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 Has there been a fruitful line of inquiry regarding the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)? This largely depends on the questions with
which one initiates the inquiry.}{\fs28 \kerning0 \dbch \af2 \hich \af0 \loch
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\langnp1033 \langfe2052 \langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 Will CPEC be a game-changer for
Pakistan? This drawing-room question is particularly useless to begin with. With so
much uncertainty and so many variables beyond human control, no one except a
clairvoyant can predict this with any confidence. It is just as pointless \uc1
\u8211 ? if not downright silly \uc1 \u8211 ? to take sides. There is not enough
information available for one side to convince the other on the basis of analysis.
Believers will continue to believe and sceptics will continue to doubt for reasons
which have little to do with the intricacies of the initiative.}{\fs28 \kerning0
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\cf1 \caps0 The following questions pertaining to the details of the deal are more
useful: Under what conditions are the various components of the initiative being
negotiated? What are the financial obligations and terms of repayment? What tax
concessions are being offered? What are the revenue and capital cost projections of
the various components? Who will bear the operating and maintenance costs?}
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\langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 Citizens responsible for the debt liabilities have a
right to demand this information and expect it to be provided. What are the reasons
for the secrecy? What is there to hide? The numbers that are filtering out in dribs
and drabs on guaranteed rates of return are not particularly reassuring. The mere
fact that information is not being fully shared is a major cause for doubt. People
are naturally apprehensive in the absence of transparency.}{\fs28 \kerning0
\cf1 \caps0 It is good that the government has set up a CPEC website
(https://cpec.gov.pk/). But at this time, it is only a list of projects with costs
and timelines. The terms of financing and revenue projections are missing. In
addition, the website suffers from an information overload. For example, it
includes the Karachi Circular Railway, the Peshawar Mass Transit, the Quetta Mass
Transit and the Lahore Orange Line
Metro Train projects.}{\fs28 \kerning0 \dbch \af2 \hich \af0 \loch \f0
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\langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 These are all plausible projects with individual
justifications and may all involve Chinese funding. But what do they have to do
with the corridor? It appears that various stakeholders are being appeased by
including their pet projects under the CPEC umbrella.}{\fs28 \kerning0 \dbch
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\lang1033 \langnp1033 \langfe2052 \langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 The case with the power
projects listed on the website is similar. Each might be justified but why is a
wind farm in Bhambore lumped under CPEC? Wouldn\uc1 \u8217 ?t it make more sense to
treat them as independent projects with separate feasibility studies, as is the
norm? The indiscriminate lumping together of everything happening in the country is
another red flag regarding the coherence of the initiative.}{\fs28 \kerning0
\cf1 \caps0 It would help to strip out the core corridor investments and share
details of their financing and cost-benefit projections. It is reasonable to expect
that, barring unforeseen events, a functioning corridor would be beneficial for
China. But what will be in it for Pakistan except collecting a toll on the transit
trade? How much toll collection is being projected? What will Pakistan be exporting
via the corridor given its grossly uncompetitive economy? Why would industrial
estates succeed along the isolated corridor when they have failed in major
locations like Peshawar and Quetta? How many permanent jobs are expected to be
created? These are legitimate questions that need to be answered in order to build
consensus and take citizens into confidence.}{\fs28 \kerning0 \dbch \af2 \hich \af0
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\lang1033 \langnp1033 \langfe2052 \langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 It is not enough for
the government to expect the public to trust its judgement because governments in
Pakistan have done nothing to earn that trust. Neither international agencies nor
Pakistani citizens believe that successive governments have been forthcoming about
facts. Such behaviour is not unique to Pakistan. After all, Bush and Blair lied to
their citizens to invade Iraq.}{\fs28 \kerning0 \dbch \af2 \hich \af0 \loch \f0
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\langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 In the absence of honest answers, those without vested
interests in deal-making can only point to historical precedents and past evidence.
Let\uc1 \u8217 ?s consider the example of one of the most significant trade
corridors of recent times: the Suez Canal. Was it a game-changer for the people of
Egypt? Or, let\uc1 \u8217 ?s take the examples of game-changers for Pakistan that
were promised in the past \uc1 \u8211 ? such as Thar Coal, Saindak and Reko Diq.
Incidentally, all these projects were also based on Chinese involvement. Why did
they not reap the desired impact? They certainly changed the game for those
involved in the multiple transactions for the projects. But did they bring any
benefits for the people of Pakistan or even the locals who lived near the project
sites?}{\fs28 \kerning0 \dbch \af2 \hich \af0 \loch \f0 \lang1033 \langnp1033
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\langfenp2052 \cf1 \caps0 The attempt to turn such questioning into issues of
patriotism or of maligning our best friends strengthens the impression that all is
not aboveboard. These are the standard tactics of those who wish to divert
discussion from facts and stifle inquiries through intimidation. Under normal
circumstances, citizens would be within their rights to examine the track record of
Chinese investments in other countries like Sri Lanka (Google Hambantota) or prior
deals with Pakistan such as the railway locomotives. In all such cases, the Chinese
are not to blame \uc1 \u8211 ? \uc1 \u8216 ?buyers beware\uc1 \u8217 ? is rule of
the market. The concern is with those negotiating the deals on our behalf and the
question remains the same: Do you trust them? If so, on what basis?}{\fs28
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\cf1 \caps0 Given the lack of transparency and the historical evidence, the
following outcomes appear likely: For better or for worse, the CPEC momentum is
unstoppable. It will be beneficial for the Chinese economy. It will generate toll
revenues for Pakistan which may be more or less than the operating costs depending
upon contractual terms, much as for the Lahore-Islamabad motorway.}{\fs28 \kerning0
\cf1 \caps0 Without inclusiveness, the economic gains of CPEC might be outweighed
by political stresses. The corridor will definitely change the fortunes of a few
thousand individuals in Pakistan. It is unlikely to be a game-changer for the
Pakistani people \uc1 \u8211 ? just as the Suez Canal did not alter the fate of the
Egyptians. On the other hand, this could be the mother of all miracles. Let us bow
our heads and pray while the untethered camel wanders into Kashgar.}{\fs28
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CPEC Questions Anjum Altaf

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CPEC Questions Anjum Altaf

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