j o u r n a l o f t r a f fi c a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e n g i n e e r i n g ( e n g l i s h e d i t i o n ) 2 0 1 7 ; 4 ( 6 ) : 5 0 3 e5 2 1

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Original Research Paper

Development of a bicycle level of service model for

urban street segments in mid-sized cities carrying
heterogeneous traffic: A functional networks approach

Sambit Kumar Beura*, Prasanta Kumar Bhuyan

Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela 769008, India

highlights

A bicycle level of service (BLOS) model is developed for the mixed traffic flow conditions.

Functional networks (FNs) approach is implemented to predict the BLOS with high efficiency.

Outermost traffic lane has the highest influence on quality of bicycling.

Interruption by intermittent public transits is one newly introduced variable.

Majority of Indian roads are offering average to very poor BLOS in the present scenario.

article info abstract

Article history: Roadways in developing countries usually carry heterogeneous traffic where on-street bi-
Received 25 November 2016 cyclists encounter a very complex interaction with various categories of vehicles. In order
Received in revised form to quantify the operational conditions of bicyclists under such conditions, a reliable bicycle
8 February 2017 level of service (BLOS) model is yet to be devised. This study intends to partially fill this gap
Accepted 17 February 2017 by proposing a BLOS model suitable for urban road segments in mid-sized cities carrying
Available online 15 November 2017 heterogeneous traffic. A recently introduced artificial intelligence technique namely,
associativity functional network (FN) is implemented for the development of this model.
Keywords: FN is a problem-driven approach that overcomes several limitations of the artificial neural
Bicycle level of service network (ANN) technique. The urban bicycling environments persisting on 74 street seg-
Urban road segment ments are analyzed, and 8 influencing variables (geometric, traffic and built environ-
Mid-sized city mental, etc.) are identified. Of these variables, interruptions caused by frequent stoppages
Functional network of intermittent public transits and frequency of driveways carrying high volume of traffic
Sensitivity analysis are newly introduced. In the modeling process, a strong relationship has been established
Developing country between the identified variables and perceived BLOS scores collected through perception
surveys. The resulting BLOS model has shown a high reliability for its applications in the
mid-sized cities and has reported a high correlation coefficient (R) of 0.94 with the average
observations. Besides, a sensitivity analysis is also carried out to identify the relative
importance of input variables based on their contribution in the BLOS estimation. As
observed, effective width of the outside lane, traffic volume, and on-street parking activity
are by far the most important variables, which contribute 38.3%, 21.8%, and 12.7%

* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ91 9938250999.

E-mail addresses: sambit.beura@gmail.com (S. K. Beura), pkbtrans@gmail.com (P. K. Bhuyan).
Peer review under responsibility of Periodical Offices of Chang'an University.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtte.2017.02.003
2095-7564/© 2017 Periodical Offices of Chang'an University. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Owner. This is an open
access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
504 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
respectively in the prediction of facility BLOS. Thus, these three attributes should be largely
prioritized while making any plan of actions for the betterment of bicyclists.
© 2017 Periodical Offices of Chang'an University. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on
behalf of Owner. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://
1. Introduction
An analysis of the survey data from 150 countries reports that
around 42% of households on the planet are owned with at least
one bicycle (Oke et al., 2015). In addition to seamless door-to-
door mobility, several economic, environmental, health and
societal benefits have made the bicycle mode highly desirable
for short trips. According to Census 2011, as high as 44.8% of
the households in India, a developing country with a
population size of above 1.3 billion, own bicycle(s). This
implies that a significant percentage of the total population in
India use this mode. However, the bicycle mode share in the
country is gradually declining amid rising in the wealth level
of citizens. Bicycle-sharing system facility which ensures the
public freedom to use some specific bicycles and leave them as
necessary (Abagnale et al., 2014a,b), is also hardly available in
India and other developing countries at present. The road
infrastructure is designed for a mixed traffic flow of well-
protected fast moving motorized vehicles with unprotected
slow moving bicycles. Hence, when efforts are made to
accommodate bicyclists along with motorists within the same
road space, any uncertain errors or unpredictable actions of
the users often lead to crashes. Moreover, an annual growth
rate of around 11% for motorized two-wheelers and cars, and
7%e8% for other motorized modes have also been degrading
the bicyclists' sense of safety under such a contained
transportation environment.
The high transportation activities, particularly at city
centers, are also contributing to high air polluting emissions
and thus greatly degrading the quality of bicycling environ-
ment. Though the level of emissions from traffic have been
reduced with technical developments in the fields of engine
and after-treatment technologies, many urban areas around
the world still continue to suffer from high concentrations of
these emissions. Mopeds and motorcycles together play a vital
role in transportation activities occurring in developing
countries, particularly in southern European and eastern as
well as southern Asian countries (Iodice et al., 2010; Iodice and
Senatore, 2012) and emits significant amount of pollutants to
the air which, on the other hand, hugely affect unprotected
bicyclists. Mopeds (Euro II Emission standard) and motorcy-
cles (< 250 cm3, Euro III Emission Standard), for instance, have
emitted a total of 2186.3 and 350.5 t/year of carbon monoxide
(CO), 450.8 and 64.6 t/year of volatile organic compounds
(VOC), and 111.7 and 31.5 t/year of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
respectively in Campania region (Italy) in 2011 (Iodice and
Senatore, 2013).
The modeling of bicycle service qualities is imperatively an
important issue for the planning, design, and management of
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
any transportation system. Empirical models built upon
important road attributes help to identify the service levels at
which existing roadways are accommodating bicycle users.
Such models are traditionally acknowledged as bicycle level of
service (BLOS) models. The service quality assessment quan-
tifies how much there is a need to redesign the existing fa-
cilities for making them abundantly bicycle friendly. Outputs
from BLOS models also help to identify which attributes of the
roadways should be primarily prioritized for the augmenta-
tion of service quality. As yet, several researchers in devel-
oped countries have carried out in-depth research works and
proposed several BLOS models. However, those models will
fail to fulfill the safety needs and mobility requirement of bi-
cycle users in developing countries due to differing situations.
Roadways in developed countries generally carry homoge-
neous traffic where road users follow the lane discipline. On
the contrary, road infrastructures in developing countries
usually carry heterogeneous traffic where motorized and non-
motorized 2-wheerers, 3-wheelers and 4-wheelers, etc., share
the available road space with a lack of lane discipline. Thus,
on-street bicyclists here encounter a very complex interaction
with various categories of vehicles which largely vary in their
sizes and operating conditions. In addition to this complex
situation, the geometric designs of roadways in developing
countries are also significantly different from the same in
developed countries. As a result, the operational characteris-
tics of bicyclists under heterogeneous traffic situations
significantly differ from that under homogeneous traffic
situations.
The primary objective of this study is to develop a new
BLOS model for urban street segments in mid-sized cities
(population range 0.5e1.0 million) operating under heteroge-
neous traffic flow conditions. In order to accomplish this, the
bicycling environment persisting on 74 urban road segments
situated in four different Indian mid-sized cities are thor-
oughly analyzed. These segments widely vary from each other
with respect to their geometrical designs, traffic flow condi-
tions, and the surrounding environment, and well represent
the variability and complexities in the prevailing roadway
environments. Eight different attributes of the roadways
having significant effect on the quality of bicycling environ-
ment are identified, such as effective width of the outermost
through lane, peak hour traffic volume per lane, average
traffic speed, pavement condition index, roadside commercial
activities, interruptions by unauthorized stoppages of inter-
mittent public transits, vehicular ingresseegress to the on-
street parking area, frequency of driveways carrying high
volume of traffic. Subsequently, a BLOS model is developed by
incorporating these important variables as independent var-
iables and overall perceived satisfaction scores of bicyclists
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
(assessed through a stated preference survey) as the output
variable.
Though regression analysis has found wide applications in
the literature for BLOS as well as pedestrian level of service
(PLOS) models development, the applicability and perfor-
mance of an advantageous and recently introduced artificial
intelligence technique namely, functional networks (FNs) has
been investigated in this study. The architecture of functional
networks approach is based upon the structure of the physical
world. It overcomes several limitations of the artificial neural
networks (ANNs) approach.
Goodness-of-fit and prediction precision of the FNs based
BLOS model proposed in this study are assessed using several
statistical parameters such as: correlation coefficient (R),
NasheSutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E), error measuring pa-
rameters (average absolute error (AAE), maximum absolute
error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE)) and over-
fitting ratio (OR), etc. In addition to this effort, a sensitivity
analysis is also carried out to identify the percentage contri-
bution of each modeled parameter in predicting the bicycle
service quality. The remaining parts of this manuscript are
organized as follows: discussion on background studies, study
methodology, site selection and data collection, data analyses,
model development and validation, model applications,
findings, and conclusions.
2. Background of the study
An in-depth review of the background studies is carried out to
gain an insight into the state-of-the-art of the focused area of
research. The review findings are summarized under two
major sections: (1) discussions on existing bicycle level of
service (BLOS) models, (2) exclusive summary of modeling
approaches which are being followed in this particular area of
research, and the evolutionary history of the advantageous
technique adopted in this study, i.e., functional networks
(FNs).
2.1. Existing bicycle level of service (BLOS) model
At present, several well-established BLOS models are available
for the assessment of service quality offered by road segments
carrying homogeneous traffic. However, none of them is suit-
able for roadways carrying heterogeneous traffic. Among
existing BLOS models, the development of the most initial
model namely roadway segment index (RSI) model was
accomplished by Davis (1987). This model assesses the quality
of road segments by using the information on number of
through traffic lanes, width of the outermost lane, traffic
volume, speed limit, pavement factors and location factors.
Modified roadway condition index (modified RCI) model is
one of the revised versions of RSI model in which authors
have modified location and pavement factors, and multiplied
the lane width parameter with speed limit to place larger
weightage on narrow roads with high traffic speeds
(Epperson, 1994). Another modified versions of RSI model,
known as bicycle suitability rating (BSR) model, signifies the
important roles of traffic volume and traffic speed in
operational conditions of bicyclists (Davis, 1995). Interaction
505
hazard score (IHS), proposed for similar resolutions, signifies
the importance of roadside land use intensity and curb cut
frequency (or on-street parking frequency) in determining the
bicycle service quality (Landis, 1994). Bicycle stress level (BSL)
model reflects the prominence of curb-lane, traffic volume
and traffic speed in quantifying the riding quality of bicyclists
(Sorton and Walsh, 1994). Another service measuring model
namely, bicycle suitability score (BSS) model assesses the
BLOS of urban road segments by using shoulder or travel lane
width, average daily traffic, average traffic speed and
pavement surface quality parameters (Turner et al., 1997).
Various studies have exposed the important roles of bicycle
lane parameters and pavement surface quality in
determining the BLOS of urban roads (Chellapilla et al., 2016;
FDOT, 2009; Harkey et al., 1998; Jensen, 2007; Landis et al.,
1997). The developers of bicycle compatibility index (BCI)
model have exposed the importance of bicycle lane
parameters and right turning vehicles in BLOS estimation
(Harkey et al., 1998).
Few other studies have investigated the benefits of con-
verting a wide outermost lane into a bicycle lane and a traffic
lane (Hallett et al., 2006; Hunter et al., 2005). The cited authors
have concluded that bicyclists gain better confidence to ride
further from the edge of roads (and consequently closer to the
motorized vehicles) if there is a provision of separate bicycle
lane. Thus, the provision of a bicycle lane is perhaps more
desirable than a wide outside lane in order to accommodate
the bicycle traffic in a safer and better way. BLOS criteria
proposed in 2000 version of Highway Capacity Manual (TRB,
2000) is based on average traffic speed, average delay, and
hindrance. However, 2010 version of Highway Capacity
Manual (TRB, 2010) considers a wide range of factors such as
effective width of the outermost lane, mid-segment demand
flow rate, number of lanes, traffic speed, percentage of
heavy vehicles and pavement surface quality. A BLOS model
developed from users' perspective has revealed that the
BLOS is largely determined by width of the road on which
bicycle is ridden (Kang and Lee, 2012). Other significant
parameters considered in this model are number of lanes,
pedestrian volume and number of encounters. An
investigation of the factors influencing bicycling in an Indian
city namely, Bangalore concludes that segregated cycle lanes
and signals at intersections are two essential requirements
of a safe bicycling environment (Verma et al., 2016). Recent
studies on bicycle operations under heterogeneous traffic
flow conditions have concluded that the quality of bicycling
is largely influenced by vehicular traffic volume (Beura et al.,
2016; Chellapilla et al., 2016). On-road bicyclists under such
conditions encounter a very complex interaction with
various categories of small to big vehicles and subsequently
have their quality of riding largely influenced.
As indicated in the earlier discussions, the applicability of
existing BLOS models built upon homogeneous traffic flow
situations is suspicious in a developing country like India
where the traffic flow is highly heterogeneous and road
geometric conditions are quite different. In addition, existing
models do not address the influence of few other factors
namely, unauthorized stoppages of intermittent public tran-
sits and driveways carrying a high volume of traffic.
Researchers neglected these variables have probably
506 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
assumed (or observed) these variables to be insignificant in
the BLOS models development under homogeneous traffic
conditions. However, these variables have different roles to
play in BLOS estimation in developing countries. In view of
all these aspects, the present study has carried out a thor-
ough investigation to identify all significant variables.
Further, an empirical BLOS model is proposed which is
basically new decision support system for transport planners
and engineers.
2.2. Modeling approach
All of the existing BLOS models discussed earlier are devel-
oped using statistical techniques such as regression analysis,
point system, logit modeling, or probit modeling approach.
However, in terms of prediction precision, artificial intelli-
gence (AI) techniques are gaining increasing popularity over
these statistical techniques in various fields of engineering
and technology. This is why, the present study has taken the
help of a recently developed artificial intelligence technique
namely, functional networks (FNs) for the development of the
new BLOS model. FN architecture, proposed and promoted by
several researchers (Castillo, 1998; Castillo and Ruiz-Cobo,
1992; Castillo et al., 1998, 2000a, 2000b), is one of the advanced
prediction tools. It has found its efficient application in the
literature in solving several prediction and classification
problems. Several added advantages have made it as a
powerful alternative to the artificial neural network (ANN)
technique. FNs are being considered as a general framework
suitable for solving a wide range of problems in probability,
signal processing, pattern recognition, classification, statis-
tics, systems identification, real-time forecasting, functions
approximations, bioinformatics applications, and other busi-
ness and engineering applications. The huge reliability and
prediction precision of FNs technique in all these areas of
research has largely motivated the present study to test its
performance in predicting the bicycle service quality. The
following section gives a brief discussion on advantages, dis-
advantages and the underlying principles of the FNs modeling
procedure.
Fig. 1 e Main elements in functional networks. (a) A typical functional network. (b) The equivalent simplified associativity
functional network.
3. Functional networks (FNs) modeling
procedure
FN, a powerful alternative to the ANN technique, deals with
generalized functional models instead of standard types
(Castillo, 1998; Castillo and Ruiz-Cobo, 1992; Castillo et al.,
1998, 2000a, 2000b). Its architecture is based on the structure
of the physical world. The neuron functions associated with
each neuron of the FNs architecture are not fixed but are
learned entirely from the data at hand. The initial architecture
of FNs for any problem is designed based on the type and
characteristics of that particular problem. Thus, FN is often
called as a problem-driven method. Besides, FNs technique
also has the ability to take into account the domain knowl-
edge, i.e., properties of the function being modeled such as
associative, commutative and distributive, while establishing
the relationship between input and output variables. Using
the domain knowledge, FNs make assumptions about the
form that unknown functions should take. As FNs use both
the domain knowledge and the data knowledge to derive the
topology of a problem, they eliminate the problems of ANNs
being “black boxes”. Another advantage of the FNs technique
is that it allows the neurons to be multi-argument, multivar-
iate, and different learnable functions, instead of any fixed
functions. Following subsections give a brief description on (a)
main components of functional networks, (b) the working
principles of the functional networks.
3.1. Main components of functional networks (FNs)
Fig. 1 displays the main elements usually encountered in each
functional network.
A brief discussion on each major component of a func-
tional network is given below.

Several layers of storing units. The storing units store in-
puts, output, and other intermediate information of the
functional network. In the functional network shown in
Fig. 1(a), the small filled circles represent the storing units.
There are three layers of storing units: the first (leftmost)
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
layer contains three input units x1, x2, and x3, the second
layer (middle) contains four intermediate units and the
third (rightmost) consists of one output unit (x0).

One or more layers of neurons (computing or functional
units). The open circles in Fig. 1 represent the neurons of
the functional network. Each neuron is a computing unit
which assesses a set of inputs and returns a set of
outputs to the next layer of storing units. Hence, each
neuron represents a function such as, for instance, f1, f2,
f3, etc., in Fig. 1(a).

A set of directed links. These are the links which connect
various input, output, and intermediate units in accor-
dance with the advance of the FN algorithm. The arrow of a
link specifies the direction of information flow.
3.2. Working with functional networks (FNs) technique
The functional networks (FNs) technique executes the
following steps to build a predictive model from the data at
hand.

Step-1 (statement of the problem). This step involves the
understanding of the problem to be solved.

Step-2 (selection of the initial topology). Unlike the artificial
neural networks (ANNs) procedure, where the topology is
selected by a repetitive trial and error method, the initial
topology of the functional networks (FNs) is selected on the
basis of properties of the problem (problem-driven design).
This process usually leads to the development of a single
and clear network structure.

Step-3 (simplification of the initial network). The initial
network, attained in step-2, is simplified using the func-
tional equations (Castillo and Ruiz-Cobo, 1992). FN
algorithm assesses if there exists a more simplified
functional network which is capable of providing the
same output for every given input. Such simpler networks
are called as equivalent FNs of the complex networks.

Step-4 (uniqueness of representation). An investigation is
carried out to ensure if the equivalent functional network
is a unique representation of the problem. For FN topology,
there often exist several sets of neurons (functions) those
lead to exactly same output for any set of inputs. In order to
avoid estimation problems, what conditions hold for the
uniqueness must be decided beforehand.

Step-5. This step involves the collection of data sets for
learning of the network.

Step-6 (parametric learning). The neuron functions are
estimated (learned) using the collected data sets and
combination of given functional families. The learning
may be linear or nonlinear based on the linearity of the
neuron functions obtained.

Step-7 (model validation and use). In this step, the test for
prediction precision and/or cross-validation of the model
is performed. To see whether or not the selected family of
approximating functions is adequate, the checking of
the prediction error is important. A cross-validation of
the model is also convenient in this regard. If the
507
validation process is satisfactory, the model is ready for
implementation.
This study has used the most recent and probably the
simplest form of the functional networks called as “associa-
tivity functional networks” for the development of BLOS model.
A brief discussion on underlying principles of associativity
functional networks is presented below for completeness.
3.3. Associativity functional networks
By using the basic theory of functional equations, any multi-
input network with s inputs (x1, x2,/, xs) and one output (xsþ1)
can be transformed to an equivalent simplified network called,
associativity functional network (Castillo and Ruiz-Cobo, 1992;
Castillo et al., 2000b). For instance, Fig. 1(b) presents the
associativity functional network of a typical functional
network shown in Fig. 1(a). The general expression for an
associative functional network built for an independent
variable v is as follow
X
m
fv ðxv Þ ¼ avi fvi ðxv Þ (1)
i¼1
where avi is model coefficient, fvi is the shape function of
variable v (it can be any admissible function like polynomial,
exponential, trigonometric, etc.), and m is the degree of
functions used.
With increasing degrees (m) of the shape function, the
performance of a FN model improvises further, and the cor-
relation coefficient (R) between actual and predicted outputs
often attains a value of as high as 1.0. This, on the other hand,
leads to the formulation of a very much complex equation
(model). Thus, a trade-off between model complexity and its
prediction precision (in terms of R value) is made to determine
the suitable value of m. This is one of the common demerits of
using functional network technique. Using the input functions
shown in Eq. (1), the output function of Fig. 1(b) shown above,
for instance, can be obtained as g(x0) ¼ g1(x1) þ g2(x2) þ g3(x3).
Hence, the generalized equation for finding the output
function from an associativity functional network with s
inputs (x1, x2,/, xs) and one output (xsþ1) is as follow (f is
written instead of g)
fsþ1 ðxsþ1 Þ ¼ f1 ðx1 Þ þ f2 ðx2 Þ þ / þ fs ðxs Þ (2)
where f($) represents different functions in the storing units.
Consequently, the error in the jth data (ej) can be repre-
sented as follow
ej ¼ f1 ðx1 Þ þ f2 ðx2 Þ þ / þ fs ðxs Þ  fsþ1 ðxsþ1 Þ (3)
The sum of squared errors En, for all n data sets can then be
represented as follow
X
n
En ¼ e2j
j¼1
( )2
X
n X
m
        
¼ ai fi x1j þ fi x2j þ / þ fi xsj  fi xsþ1;j (4)
j¼1 i¼1
508 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521

To estimate the FN model coefficients, En can be minimized
Geometric design. The geometric designs of roadways
and subjected to include number of lanes, lane width, shoulder width, and
carriageway width, etc. The change in geometry of a
X
mk
fk ðx0 Þ ¼ aki fki ðx0 Þ ¼ ak k ¼ 1; 2; /; s þ 1 (5) roadway leads to a considerable change in its performance.
i¼1 Hence, a wide dissimilarity in the geometric details of the
selected road segments was very much important for
where x0 and ak are constants.
developing a well generalized BLOS model.
By using the Lagrangian multipliers, an auxiliary function

Traffic volume and composition. Traffic volume and its
can be defined as follow
composition have a considerable influence on the riding
" #2 " #
X
n X
sþ1 X
m
  X
sþ1 X
m quality of bicyclists. These measures normally change with
El ¼ aki fki xkj þ lk aki fki ðx0 Þ  ak (6) differing transportation facilities in different states of a
j¼1 k¼1 i¼1 k¼1 i¼1
nation. Thus urban road segments from different states of
The minimum value of El can be obtained by using Eq. (7). India were included in the study corridors.
" #
Land-use pattern. The roadside land-use pattern has a
vEl Xn sþ1 X
X m
    considerable effect on travel demand and several other
¼2 aki fki xkj fkr xjk þ lk fkr ðx0 Þ ¼ 0
vakr j¼1 k¼1 i¼1 (7) factors. This, on the other hand, greatly affects the quality
k ¼ 1; 2; /; s þ 1; r ¼ 1; 2; /; m of bicycling environments. Thus, varieties of roadside de-
velopments such as residential area, rural fields, office or
institutional area, commercial area, and industrial area
vEl X m
¼ aki fki ðx0 Þ  ak ¼ 0 k ¼ 1; 2; /; s þ 1 (8) were included in the study corridors.
vlk i¼1

The systems of linear equations shown in Eqs. (7) and (8)
have (km þ k) numbers of equations and (km þ k) numbers of
unknowns, which can be solved to get the FN model co-
efficients, aki, where k ¼ 1, 2, /, s þ 1 and i ¼ 1, 2, /, m. Further
details on FN procedure along with some example
problems can be found in Castillo (1998), Castillo and Ruiz-
Cobo (1992), and Castillo et al. (1998, 2000a, 2000b). In this
study, the FN technique was implemented using MATLAB
(MathWorks, Inc., 2016) for the study analysis and BLOS
model development.
4. Site selection and data collection
In order to develop a well generalized BLOS model, it was
highly essential to have a precise and sufficient data set
collected from various categories of road environments. Thus,
a large number of road segments (i.e., 74) were included in the
study corridors, and the collected data sets were utilized for
necessary reconnaissance. The major principle laid for
selecting these sites are as follows.

Location of sites inside the city. The location of a road in-
side the city has a huge influence on the traffic volume,
traffic composition and several other properties of the
roadway. Considering a roadway situated at residential
area, the proportion of independent mode of traffic would
be predominant, and the traffic volume would be quite less.
Conversely, a commercial area would attract a significant
number of trips from different parts of the city and would
result in higher traffic volume on the nearby roadways.
Similarly, the movement of heavy vehicles is often
restricted inside the city. On the other hand, the flow of
heavy vehicles connecting from one place to another or for
industrial purpose is significantly expected at the outskirts
of a city. Hence road segments from different parts of the
cities were included in the study corridors.
In this study, required data sets were collected from four
different mid-sized cities of India namely: Bhubaneswar,
Rourkela, Rajahmundry, and Kottayam. These cities are
located in eastern and southern parts of India (as shown in
Fig. 2).
Bhubaneswar is the capital and largest city of the Indian
state of Odisha. It is primarily an administrative city, and
center of economic and religious importance in the eastern
part of the country. Being one fastest-developing city, it has
emerged as an information technology (IT) and education hub.
Roadways in the city are generally wide and have the provi-
sion of 2e3 traffic lanes in each direction of travel. The road
networks often have the provision of separated sidewalk,
median and parking lane facilities. Roads passing through
interior regions of the city are generally 2-lane undivided
roads where the usual traffic volume is noticeably lower.
Alternatively, Rourkela city is another large city in the same
Indian state. The city is popularly known as the “steel city” of
Odisha because the Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) is the first ever
steel plant integrated into the public sector in India. The road
infrastructure of the city is often known for a well-designed
ring road (6.5e11 m wide) joining all the places of economic
importance. Roadways passing through market areas and
other interior areas of the city are mostly 2-lane undivided
roads. These roads often look like an open market where on-
street parking turn-over is normally very high.
From the remaining cities, Rajahmundry is one of the
major cities in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, well known
for its historic agricultural, economic and cultural back-
grounds. It is popularly called as the “Cultural Capital” of the
state. Kottayam is a municipal town in the Indian state of
Kerala and is the administrative capital city of Kottayam dis-
trict. In these two cities, 2- and 4-lane roads contribute the
most to the road networks and 6-lane roads are few in
numbers. The road infrastructures often have the provision of
the sidewalk, shoulder, and median facilities. Fig. 3 shows
pictures taken from some typical road segments under
varying conditions.
J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521 509

Fig. 2 e Locations of studied cities in India.

510 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
Fig. 3 e Typical study corridors representing wide variations in the bicycling environments. (a) Bidyut marg, Bhubaneswar. (b)
Ramalayam junction to NH 16, Rajahmundry. (c) Church gate e municipal stadium, Rajahmundry. (d) Kachery road, Rourkela.
4.1. Collection and extraction of input variables
BLOS model development in the present context was chal-
lenged with the availability of road data such as geometric
details, traffic volume, and traffic speed, etc. The historical
data of urban roads are mostly unavailable with the city au-
thorities in mid-sized cities of a developing country like India.
Though a few data sets are available, those are poorly
maintained and probably not useful for the research work. As
a consequence, the field investigation procedure was adopted
to gather the required data set. Instruments such as
measuring tapes, high-definition (HD) video cameras, and
tripod stands were used during the inventory survey to carry
out several geometrical measurements and videotaping of
the traffic flow. Widths of the outermost lane, shoulder,
paving between the outermost lane stripe and the edge of
pavement, median, curb and gutter were measured during
the inventory survey. Other information such as: the pres-
ence of proper lane markings, curb, sidewalk, shared-use
path in usable conditions, and trees on roadsides were
collected using a 2-point scale where 1 means present and
0 means not present. Number of driveways merged with the
segment were counted manually by traveling from one end of
the segment to another; and how many of those driveways
are carrying a high volume of traffic was also inspected.
Pavement surface quality of each segment was rated
using a 5-point scale where 5 means excellent and 1 means
worst. Roadside commercial activities and interruptions by
unauthorized stoppages of intermittent public transits were
rated using a 3-point scale where, 1 means high, 0.5 means
medium and 0 means minimal.
Due to the heterogeneous traffic flow on Indian roads, the
average operating speed is significantly lower than the same
in developed countries under homogeneous traffic conditions.
In addition to this, a large variation exists among the speeds of
individual vehicles under heterogeneous traffic conditions.
Thus, the speed measures such as spot speed or space mean
speed that are normally calculated for homogeneous traffic,
should not be considered for heterogeneous traffic situations.
In view of this, the mid-segment traffic flow was videotaped
over an elongated longitudinal trap of 30 m. Expected peak 2 h
of traffic flow (AM 8:30e10:30 or PM 4:30e6:30) were selected
for the data collection as bicyclists encounter the worst con-
ditions during this period. Recorded videos were projected on
a large screen in the laboratory and the time taken by the
usual motorists to cross this trap was extracted with an ac-
curacy of 0.1 s. Using this data average traffic speed (ratio of
average time taken by motorists to cross the trap and length of
the trap) on each segment was calculated.
Team members also extracted several other desired data
sets from these videos such as: peak hour volume (PCU/h),
pedestrian volume (ped/h), percentage of heavy vehicles (%)
and approximate vehicular ingresseegress to the on-street
parking area (veh/h/km). For the estimation of peak hour
volume (PHV) from 2 h of volume counts, running average
method was used. Equivalent passenger car units (PCUs) of
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
vehicles endorsed in Indian Road Congress (IRC, 1990) were
used, and traffic volume was expressed in PCU per hour.
Some notifiable diversity in the extracted road attributes are
3e14 m wide carriageway with 1e4 traffic lanes in each
direction of travel, 250e5100 PCU/h traffic volume during
peak commuting hours, 23e46 km/h of operating speed, and
0e7% heavy vehicles in the total traffic flow, etc. The
detailed statistics of important road attributes including
their range, mean, and standard deviation are highlighted in
Section 5 (Table 2).
4.2. Perception survey and collection of output variable
An extensive perception survey was carried out in this study to
assess the perceived satisfactions of on-street bicyclists under
prevailing road conditions. Literature revealed that mainly two
types of methods are being used for this purpose such as:
traveler intercept survey (on-site face to face interaction with
the road users of interest) and videography survey (showing
roadway environments to the participants through suitable
video clips and asking them to rate the road under shown
conditions). The former approach is often preferred to obtain
more realistic responses from the participants who have
immediately traveled on the roadway under investigation.
However, this method is very much time consuming and loss-
making particularly while gathering large sets of data. Thus, the
videography survey approach is often preferred as an alterna-
tive approach in various research works. For instance, bicycle
compatibility index (BCI) model (Harkey et al., 1998) and bicycle
model (Jensen, 2007) are two of the successful models built upon
the videography survey data. Harkey et al. (1998) tried to
validate a video-based methodology using a stationary
camera, and concluded that the video-based methodology is a
valid technique for obtaining realistic perspectives of
bicyclists. The video-based methodology also has following
several advantages over traveler intercept survey (Jensen, 2007).

The number of street segments that participants can rate
during a reasonable period of time is generally high.

More diverse group of participants can be included.

It is more cost-effective than having respondents on site.

The exact same roadway and traffic conditions, for
example, may be experienced by many respondents; the
conditions to be rated can be chosen from several video-
tapes of the same roadway segment. This form of variable
control is impossible when respondents actually walk and
ride on the roadway.

There are no traffic risks to the respondents, which makes
it easier to include roadway segments that may include
high perceived risks.
In light of the above advantages, the present study has
implemented the videography survey approach to accumulate
large quantity of data sets required in the BLOS model build-
ing. In order to obtain reliable responses in this survey,
enough care was taken which are discussed in the following
section in detail. Besides, a traveler intercept survey was also
carried out at some identified locations (i.e., 20 diversified
segments randomly selected from the study area) to compare
the results with videography survey-based data sets. Detailed
511
explanations on these two survey approaches are presented in
the following subsections.
4.2.1. Videography survey
In order to obtain quite precise responses, two eligibility criteria
were used for the users willing to participate in this survey such
as: (1) a participant should be at least 14 years old, (2) a partic-
ipant should have at least a year of cycling experience on city
roads. Roughly 150 participants were recruited from the
campus and nearby localities of an institution of national
importance through a common e-mail explaining the survey
objectives and its importance. The participants were asked to
fill up an online registration form and show their interest in this
survey. The registration form was designed so as to collect
valuable information on the age, sex, geographic origins,
working class, and social, economic and educational back-
grounds, etc., of the possible participants. Table 1 summarizes
the wide diversities observed in the participants' socio-
demographic details and bicycling characteristics (bicycling
experiences, daily average bicycling distance, bicycle trip
purpose and types of users).
In this study, the videography survey was conducted in
three different sessions, and around 50 participants partici-
pated in each session. One typical video clip having 30e45 s of
duration was selected for each segment to exemplify the usual
traffic volume, traffic speed, congestion and stopping interval
of public transits, etc., on that segment. A brief overview on
surrounding environmental characteristics (roadside de-
velopments and on-street parking activities, etc.) was also
featured in the clips. Each clip was shown on a large screen and
participants were asked to rate the segment for bicycle use
under shown conditions. The question asked to the partici-
pants to assess their satisfaction levels was kept as simple as:
how much satisfied are you as a bicyclist on the roadway
shown?” A 6-point Likert scale (1 meas extremely satisfied and
6 meas extremely dissatisfied) was used to collect these
ratings.
During the videography survey, some “repeater clips” were
used to assess the individual respondent's ability to detect
minor changes and to deliver identical responses. Repeater
clips were videoed at the same part of the segment as its
original, but with differing traffic volumes. These clips were
shown to the survey participants at a fixed interval. During the
data analyses sections, it was observed that around 10 persons
were not able to detect the minor changes in repeaters and had
provided inappropriate responses. Thus, any information ob-
tained from these 10 participants were not included in the
model building process. As such, this survey resulted in a total
of 10,360 effective ratings (i.e., 74 segments  140 effective
participants). These ratings were termed as “perceived BLOS
scores”. An investigation was carried out to check whether
10,360 numbers of perceived BLOS scores are sufficient for
BLOS model building. The allowed error in the estimation of
the mean BLOS score (3.49) was calculated by using the
Cochran's sample size formula (Cochran, 1977). At 95%
confidence level, the error value was observed to be 0.22%.
This means that with a total of 10,360 responses the
percentage of error in the mean score is 0.06 (0.22/3.49) only.
This minimal error well implied the sufficiency in the
collected data sets.
512 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521

Table 1 e Participants' characteristics in the survey sample.

Attribute Distribution Frequency Percentage (%)
Gender Female 66 44.0
Male 84 56.0
Age (years old) 20 7 4.6
21e30 57 38.0
31e40 39 26.0
41e50 26 17.4
51e60 15 10.0
60 6 4.0
Education Matric or less 28 18.7
Intermediate 48 32.0
Graduate 62 41.3
PG or above 12 8.0
Experience with bicycling (year) <5 52 34.7
5e10 63 42.0
>10 35 23.3
Daily average bicycling distance (km/d) <5 43 28.7
5e10 83 55.3
11e20 21 14.0
>20 3 2.0
Trip purpose Recreation 41 27.3
Exercise or health 34 22.7
Personal errands 27 18.0
Education 24 16.0
Commuting to/from work 12 8.0
Visit a friend or relative 9 6.0
Other 3 2.0
User type Regular rider 64 42.6
Occasional rider 86 57.3
Total for each attribute 150 100

4.2.2. Traveler intercept survey
As explained earlier, the traveler intercept survey was carried
out on 20 roadway segments located in different parts of the
study area and representing differing road environments
(excellenteworst). The survey principles were kept as similar
as to that of the videography survey in terms of number of
responses, diversities in participants' socio-demographics and
other characteristics. This survey was conducted during the
peak hours of traffic flow as the data sets to be obtained were
desired to reflect the worst conditions observed on the road-
ways. At least 140 bicyclists from each segment were inter-
viewed by the team members. The percentage distributions in
participants' gender, age, education level, experience with
bicycling, daily average bicycling distance, trip purpose, and
user type (i.e., regular rider or occasional rider) were well
diversified and as similar as those shown in Table 1. Each
participant was asked to rate the roadway segment he/she
immediately traveled on. The question asked to obtain the
participant's response was kept as simple as “what is your
perceived level of satisfaction while riding on the road
segment?” The same 6-point Likert scale was used, and 140
effective perceived BLOS scores were collected from each
segment.
network (FN) technique, (4) goodness-of-fit and prediction
precision of the developed model evaluated through the
application of several statistical parameters, (5) comparison of
the newly developed model with other existing models, and
(6) defining the ranges of service categories (AeF).
5.1. Checking the reliability of videography survey data
The videography survey data obtained from 20 road segments
were used to check the reliability of the videography survey
method. The overall BLOS score perceived by survey partici-
pants on a particular road segment was calculated by taking
the average of all perceived BLOS scores (effective scores only)
obtained for that segment. Here, overall perceived BLOS
scores for each segment as per traveler intercept survey data
and videography survey data were estimated separately.
These two sets of data were compared with each other to
witness the level of similarity that does exist in between them.
The correlation coefficient (R) between these overall scores
obtained for 20 segments was as high as 0.96, and average
absolute error (AAE) was as less as 0.17. Hence, it was ensured
that the videography survey data collection method for
operational analysis of bicycle facilities could be relied like
field intercept survey method.

5. Analyses, results, and discussions 5.2. Variables selection

This section gives a detailed discussion on: (1) checking reli- An extensive Pearson's correlation analysis was carried out to
ability of videography survey data, (2) selection of influencing identify which road attributes are significantly (p < 0.001)
variables, (3) development of the BLOS model using functional affecting the perceived satisfactions of on-street bicyclists.
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521 513

The wide-range of road attributes collected in this study were

Standard deviation

Note: Average effective width of outermost through lane (WOTLE) is defined as Wt þ Wl þ Wr, where Wt is sum of outermost lane width and paved shoulder width, Wl is width of paving between
used as the independent variables, and the array of overall
perceived BLOS scores obtained for individual segments in the

1442.45
videography survey was used as the dependent variable. Sig-

489.10
0.71
0.90

4.88
0.37

0.44

0.39

0.95
nificant variables identified from the Pearson's correlation
analysis were used as the set of independent variables in the
BLOS model building process. Table 2 shows the notations and
descriptive statistics of all output and input variables used in
this study for the development of BLOS model.

Mean

1069.6

745.78
Though variability in the traffic speed was anticipated to be

33.94
3.49
3.68

3.85

0.49

0.45

0.83
an important parameter, it had a high correlation of 0.72 with
average traffic speed. Thus, in order to avoid autocorrelation
among independent variables any one parameter was to be

1.55e5.40

148e2586
Range
chosen. Average traffic speed parameter was preferred in this

2.5e4.5

0e6000
23e46
study as it was more correlated with the BLOS score. Indian

2e7

0e1

0e1

0e3
people generally do not prefer to walk for longer distances.

outermost lane stripe and edge of pavement, and Wr is average width reduction due to encroachments in the outermost lane (Landis et al., 1997).
Moreover, a significant percentage of the city roads have the
provision of sidewalk facilities those offer separate space for

1e5 scale (5 means excellent,

pedestrian use and restrict them from interfering with the
mainstream traffic flow. These are some probable reasons due

Unit/scale
to which the influence of “pedestrian volume” parameter was

6-point Likert scale

found to be insignificant. Similarly, the frequency of drive-

1 means worst)

Number(s)/km
0.5 (medium),

0.5 (medium),
ways also had an insignificant correlation with the perceived

0 (minimal)

0 (minimal)
PCU/h/lane

veh/h/km
BLOS score (p > 0.001). However, the frequency of driveways

1 (high),

1 (high),
carrying a high volume of traffic had a significant correlation

Meter

km/h
(p < 0.001) with the perceived BLOS score. This means bi-
Table 2 e Notations and descriptive statistics of variables used in the BLOS model development.

cyclists in the present context are perceiving considerable

dissatisfaction under the influence of driveways carrying a
Abbreviation
BLOSPerceived

high volume of traffic, and are okay with those carry lower
volume of traffic. Thus, the former parameter was retained in
WOTLE
PHVL

the model development process.

IIPT
PCI

The correlation between individuals' perceived BLOS CA

D
S

P
scores and socio-demographic variables was not significant
with p  0.001. However, there were some tendencies. Men
Output
Type

seemed to be more satisfied than women. Elderly people

Input
Input
Input
Input

Input

Input

Input
Input
seemed to be more dissatisfied than youth. However, quanti-
tative variables (geometric, traffic and built environmental
variables) were observed to be dominating over socio-eco-
Vehicular ingresseegress volume to on-street parking area

nomic attributes and driver characteristics (e.g., gender,

Frequency of driveways carrying a high volume of traffic

experience level, household size, income, working class, etc.)

Variable (subjected to specific direction)

Average effective width of outermost through lane

in the present context. This happened probably because, un-

like in high-income cities the discrepancies in living stan-
dards, income, and other socio-demographics of the people in
Interruptions by unauthorized stoppages of

mid-sized cities of a developing country like India is not very

Commercial activities on roadside area

inclusive. Similar observations are also documented in several

studies carried out in developed countries such as USA (Landis
Peak hour traffic volume per lane

et al., 1997; TRB, 2000, 2010; etc.), and Denmark (Jensen, 2007),
intermittent public transits

etc. Thus, quantitative variables are only considered in this

Pavement condition index

study for the development of BLOS model.

Perceived BLOS score

Average traffic speed

5.3. FN based BLOS model development and sensitivity

analysis

In this study, the FN technique was implemented using

MATLAB (MathWorks, Inc., 2016) for the development of BLOS
model. Data of randomly selected 52 segments (70% of total)
Sl. No.

were used for the model training, and remaining data were
used for the model testing. By using the following Eq. (9), all
1
2
3
4
5

8
9

dependent and independent variables were normalized

514 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521

within the range of [0, 1] to avoid their dimensional effects in

the model building process.

v  vmin
vNormalized ¼ (9)
vmax  vmin
where v is any variable, vNormalized is normalized value of v,
vmax is maximum value of v, vmin is minimum value of v. The
maximum and minimum values of each variable used in this
study are shown in Table 2.
In this study, the functional networks (FNs) based BLOS
model were developed by selecting an appropriate shape
function (SF) (f) and its proper degree. Performances of five
different SFs such as: polynomial, exponential, sin($), cos($) and
tan($) were investigated, and the obtained results are shown in
Fig. 5 e Associativity functional network for the proposed
Fig. 4. This figure depicts that, the polynomial function is
BLOS model.
producing the highest correlation coefficient R value (between
predicted and perceived BLOS scores) at all lower degrees of
SFs (1e5). Though all shape functions are providing highly
precise results with Ry1:0 at degrees of 10 and higher, a WOTLE, for instance, are 1.1717, 2.0221, 0.0592 and
lower degree is always desired as it leads to the formation of 1.2315 at degrees of 1e4, respectively. Thus, the associative
a less complex model. Complex structured models require functional network for the variable (WOTLE) would be e
higher computational efforts for the field implementations 1.1717WOTLE þ 2.0221WOTL2E  0.0592WOTL3E  1.2315WOTL4E.
and thus are undesired. Thus, a polynomial SF was chosen The associative functional network for remaining seven
for the development of a less complex BLOS model. After variables can also be built in a very similar way.
choosing the suitable shape function, the next step was to An empirical equation shown below is built using Eqs. (1)
decide its proper degree. In order to accomplish this, a trade- and (2) to predict the normalized values of BLOS scores
off was made with the help of Fig. 4 between the degree and (BLOSNorm).
complexity of the BLOS model, and a polynomial SF with " # " #
X
s X
m
  X
s X
m
 
degree “four” was adopted. As observed in Fig. 4, the BLOSNorm ¼ aji fji xj ¼ a0 þ fi xj (10)
polynomial SF is providing a R value of approximately 0.94 j¼1 i¼1 j¼1 i¼1

which is a very high and well-acceptable value.

where s is number of independent variables (s ¼ 8), m is degree
Using the concepts of associativity functional networks, the
of SF (m ¼ 4).
network shown in Fig. 5 was built to predict the overall BLOS
Using the model coefficients shown in Table 3, above Eq.
scores of urban street segments carrying heterogeneous
(10) is expanded as follows to find the normalized value of
traffic. In Fig. 5, f1 ¼ f2 ¼ / ¼ f8, f1 e f8 are polynomial
predicted BLOS score for any urban street segment.
functions with degree “four”. The FN algorithm was executed
in MATLAB to estimate the model coefficients and the a0 ¼ 0:504 (11)
constant term (a0), and the obtained results are presented in
Table 3. Columns 2e8 of Table 3 contain the coefficients of X
m

individual independent variables at degrees of 1e4. An fi ðx1 Þ ¼ 1:1717WOLTE þ 2:0221WOTL2E  0:0592WOTL3E

i¼1
associative functional network for an input variable (v) can be
 1:2315WOTL4E
built by putting the corresponding coefficient estimates in Eq.
(1). As observed in Table 3, the coefficients of a variable (12)

X
m
fi ðx2 Þ ¼ 0:3067PHVL þ 0:8544PHVL2  2:4434PHVL3
i¼1

þ 1:5336PHVL4 (13)

X
m
fi ðx3 Þ ¼ 0:0218S  0:4736S2 þ 1:4273S3  0:9338S4 (14)
i¼1

X
m
fi ðx4 Þ ¼ 1:0866PCI þ 6:2554PCI2  11:0284PCI3 þ 5:7909PCI4
i¼1

(15)

X
m
fi ðx5 Þ ¼ 0:0383CA þ 0:1412CA4 (16)
Fig. 4 e Performance of shape functions (SFs) of the
i¼1
functional networks (FNs) approach.
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521 515

Table 3 e Functional network based BLOS model coefficients.

Degree Variable Constant (a0)
WOTLE PHVL S PCI CA IIPT P D
1 1.1717 0.3067 0.0218 1.0866 0.0383 0.1045 1.1174 0.0152 0.5040
2 2.0221 0.8544 0.4736 6.2554 0.0000 0.0000 4.9067 0.1258
3 0.0592 2.4434 1.4273 11.0284 0.0000 0.0000 8.2134 0.0000
4 1.2315 1.5336 0.9338 5.7909 0.1412 0.0684 4.2785 0.0478

fmin(xi), Si is sensitivity in percentage, and n is the number of

X
m input variables. fmax(xi) and fmin(xi) values were calculated by
fi ðx6 Þ ¼ 0:1045IIPT  0:0684IIPT4 (17) feeding the developed model with maximum and/or mini-
i¼1
mum values of ith variable and mean values of remaining
variables.
X
m
fi ðx7 Þ ¼ 1:1174P  4:9067P2 þ 8:2134P3  4:2785P4 (18) It is obvious that, the higher the value of Si greater is the
i¼1 importance of corresponding input variable in predicting the
output variable. Thus, the variable WOTLE having the highest
X
m
fi ðx8 Þ ¼ 0:0152D þ 0:1258D2  0:0478D4 (19) value of Si (38.3%) has been assigned with a rank of “1” in
i¼1 Table 4. Remaining variables are also ranked accordingly to
show their relative importance in BLOS score prediction in
In Eqs. (12)-(19), values of input variables are their
the present context. WOTLE has the highest importance
normalized values between 0 and 1. The sum of outputs from
possibly because, outermost lane and paved shoulder are the
Eqs. (11)-(19) gives the normalized value of the predicted BLOS
spaces where bicyclists actually move. On Indian roads,
score for the desired street segment. Finally, the de-normal-
where left-hand drive rule is followed, bicycle users usually
ized value of the predicted BLOS score (BLOSPredicted) of the
prefer to move on the outermost lane. Thus, the perceived
segment can be found out by using the following Eq. (20).
satisfaction levels of the bicycle users are largely influenced
BLOSPredicted ¼ BLOSNorm ðBLOSMax  BLOSMin Þ þ BLOSMin (20) by the available effective width of outermost lane. As
observed in Table 4, peak hour traffic volume per lane (PHVL)
where BLOSMax is maximum value of perceived BLOS scores
has the second highest influence on bicycle service quality.
(BLOSMax ¼ 5.40), BLOSMin is minimum value of perceived
This may be because several categories of vehicles widely
BLOS scores (BLOSMin ¼ 1.55).
varying in their size and operating conditions share the
The collection of the BLOS model inputs from real field
entire roadway width with a lack of lane discipline. Thus, on-
conditions is not very complicated. Thus, the developed
street bicyclists encounter a very complexly interaction with
model has a good scope for its easy implementations in the
the vehicular traffic flow. Thus, PHVL parameter hugely
real practice. The city planners and engineers can use this
influences the quality of the bicycling environment in
model for various purposes including the assessment of urban
developing countries. Similarly, the vehicular ingresseegress
on-street bicycling environment and the bicycle route plan-
to the on-street parking area obstruct the path of bicyclists
ning in mid-sized cities. The sensitivity analysis was essential
and significantly degrade their riding quality. This variable
as it reports the relative importance of input variables based
was observed to be the third most important variable in the
on their percentage contribution to the prediction of the BLOS
present context. Roadside commercial activities (CA),
score. For this purpose, a sensitivity percentage value (Si) was
pavement condition index (PCI), frequency of driveways
estimated for each modeled road attribute using Eqs. (21) and
carrying a high volume of traffic (D), average traffic speed (S),
(22) (Gandomi et al., 2013) and results are summarized in
and unauthorized stoppages of intermittent public transits
Table 4.
(IIPT) are the remaining significant variables stated in a
Ni ¼ fmax ðxi Þ  fmin ðxi Þ (21) descending order of importance.

Ni 5.4. Goodness-of-fit and prediction precision of the

Si ¼  100% (22)
P
n
developed model
Ni
i¼1

where fmax(xi) is the maximum value of the predicted output An extensive investigation has been carried out in this study
over ith input, fmin(xi) is the minimum value of predicted to assess the goodness-of-fit of the developed model with
output over ith input, Ni is the difference between fmax(xi) and training data sets and its prediction precision with testing
data sets through the application of various statistical pa-
rameters. Fig. 6 shows a plot of FN model predicted BLOS
Table 4 e Relative importance of input variables. scores vs. overall perceived BLOS scores (both for training
data and testing data sets). The figure depicts that, the
Variable WOTLE PHVL S PCI CA IIPT P D
scatter of predicted scores is well within the 80% prediction
Si (%) 38.3 21.8 3.7 5.9 8.9 3.2 12.7 5.5 limit. The model also justifies its high prediction precision in
Rank 1 2 7 5 4 8 3 6
the present context with a high correlation coefficient (R)
516 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
Fig. 6 e Plot of FN model predicted BLOS scores vs. overall
perceived BLOS scores.
between predicted and overall perceived BLOS scores
(R ¼ 0.940 for training data, and R ¼ 0.943 for testing data).
Thus, the developed model has a high prediction precision
in the present context.
As the R parameter has been criticized by many researchers
as being a biased estimate, several other statistical parameters
were also applied to thoroughly assess the goodness-of-fit and
prediction precision of the developed model. The parameters
are such as (i) NasheSutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E), (ii) mean
(m) and standard deviation (s) of BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived (ratio
of predicted and overall perceived BLOS scores), (iii) 50% and
90% cumulative probabilities (P0 50 and P0 90 respectively) of
BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived, (iv) error measuring parameters and
the overfitting ratio (OR). A detailed discussion of each aspect is
given below.
(i) NasheSutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E)
As an alternative measure to R, NasheSutcliffe efficiency
coefficient (E) is also used for the best-fit calculations of the
predicted and actual output. This parameter compares the
predicted and actual values of the output variable, and eval-
uates how good the model is in explaining the variance in total
data sets. A NasheSutcliffe efficiency coefficient value of 1.0
represents an exact explanation of the variance. For the
developed BLOS model, the E value was estimated using Eqs.
(23)-(25) (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970) and was found to be 0.884
for both training and testing data sets. Such a higher value
of E (closer to 1.0) signifies an excellent performance of FN
model in the present context.
E ¼ ðE1  E2 Þ=E1
s 
X 2
E1 ¼ BLOSPerceived  BLOSPerceived
i¼1
X
s
E2 ¼ ðBLOSPerceived  BLOSPredicted Þ2
i¼1
where BLOSPerceived, BLOSPerceived , BLOSPredicted are perceived,
average of perceived and predicted values of BLOS scores,
respectively, s is total number of road segments (i.e., 52 in
model training and 22 in model testing).
(ii) Mean (m) and standard deviation (s) of BLOSPredicted/
BLOSPerceived (ratio of predicted and overall perceived
BLOS scores)
Mean (m) and standard deviation (s) of the ratio of predicted
and actual outputs immensely indicate the prediction preci-
sion of an empirical model. Under ideal conditions, i.e., when
model predicted outputs are exactly equal to the actual ones, m
becomes 1.0 and s becomes 0. For the developed BLOS model,
m values are 1.004 and 1.001 for training and testing data sets
respectively, which are very close to 1.0. Besides, s values are
0.067 and 0.085 for training and testing data sets respectively
which are very close to 0. Thus, it can be concluded that the
developed BLOS model has a very precise performance in the
present context.
(iii) 50% and 90% cumulative probabilities (P0 50 and P0 90) of
BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived
Value of 50% cumulative probability (P0 50) below “one” im-
plies under prediction and above “one” implies over-predic-
tion by a predictive model. Similarly, 90% cumulative
probability (P0 90) value reflects the variation in the ratio of
predicted and actual outputs for the total observations. Thus,
values of these two parameters closer to “one” indicate a high
prediction efficiency. In order to estimate the values of these
parameters, BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived values for all segments
were arranged in ascending order (separately in training data
and testing data sets) and the cumulative probability (P0 ) was
calculated by using Eq. (26).
l
P0 ¼  100% (26)
sþ1
where l is serial or index number of a segment.
The variation of BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived with the cumu-
lative probabilities is shown in Fig. 7. It can be observed that,
the P0 values are very close to 1.0 at any value of percentage
probabilities. As estimated from Fig. 7, the values of P0 50
parameter are 0.991 and 0.983 for training and testing data
sets respectively. Similarly, the values of P0 90 parameter are
1.085 and 1.095 for training and testing data sets
respectively. As these estimated values are all close to 1.0,
(23)
(24)
(25)
Fig. 7 e Cumulative probability plot of BLOSPredicted/
BLOSPerceived (ratio of predicted and overall perceived BLOS
scores).
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521 517

the developed model has a very precise prediction

Overall
performance at both 50% and 90% cumulative probabilities.

rank

2
3
4
(iv) Error measuring parameters and overfitting ratio (OR)

RMSE
0.219
0.264
0.603
1.535
1.998
The use of various error measuring parameters such as
average absolute error (AAE), maximum absolute error (MAE)
measuring
parameter
and root mean square error (RMSE) is very common in any field
Error

MAE
0.549
0.664
2.062
2.759
3.643
of science and engineering. Values of these parameters as
estimated using predicted and overall perceived BLOS scores
0.176 are presented in Table 4. As observed, the numerical values of
0.210
0.487
1.433
1.775
AAE

these parameters are significantly lower and thus well

satisfying to the criteria of a reliable model. Quantitatively,
the generalization of any empirical model is presented as the
probability of BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived

overfitting ratio (the ratio of RMSE in model testing to that in

model training). The developed BLOS model has reported an
1.085
1.095
1.260
1.720
0.915
P0 90

overfitting ratio value of 1.205 which is very much close to 1.

This means that the model is well generalized and capable of
providing reliable results with new data sets.
Cumulative

It is well convinced from the above observations that, the

BLOS model developed in this study using functional network
(FN) technique is highly reliable for its applications in the
present context. The model will show an excellent perfor-
mance in a mid-sized city of any developing country provided
0.991
0.983
1.071
1.437
0.519
P0 50

that, the field observations are within the ranges of variables

shown in Table 2. In this study, the model inputs are collected
from a large number of road segments (i.e., 74), which well
represent the possible variabilities and complexities
persisting in roadway environments in mid-sized cities.
Thus, the developed model is well anticipated to perform
calculation of BLOSPredicted/BLOSPerceived

well in mid-cities of India as well as other developing

countries around the world. The present study has taken a
0.067
0.092
0.180
0.251
0.379
Table 5 e Prediction precision of BLOS models under mixed traffic conditions.

country like India as the case study which is the second

largest populous country in the world sharing about 18% of
the total population. Also, developing countries contribute to
Arithmetic

about 80% of the world's population. Hence, the proposed

model has tremendous potential for its wide applications.
However, when the city size is very large like metropolitan
area or very small like a town, it is expected that some
additional variables or lesser number of variables may
1.004
1.001
1.070
1.456
0.453
m

contribute to the bicycle service quality. In such cases, the

study methodology could be easily duplicated or calibrated
to meet the altered requirements.

5.5. Developed model vs. existing models

Best fit calculation

3.609
6.816
0.884
0.884
0.288
E

As indicated in the earlier discussion, all existing bicycle

models are built upon the data sets collected from homoge-
neous traffic situations prevailing in developed countries.
Thus, it is obvious that these model will not provide precise
0.940
0.943
0.394
0.409
0.541

results in the present context, i.e., under heterogeneous traffic

R

flow situations. A detailed investigation has been carried out

in this study to ensure about the same. Three existing and
well-followed BLOS models namely, HCM model (TRB, 2010),
Training
Testing
Data

FDOT model (FDOT, 2009) and BCI model (Harkey et al., 1998)
All
All
All

were employed to predict the BLOS scores of investigated

segments. The predicted values were compared with the
Model

actual ones, and all statistical parameters discussed earlier

FDOT
HCM

were estimated. The detailed summary of all these

BCI
FN

parametric values is presented in Table 5. It can be well

518 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
convinced from Table 5 that, existing models are not able to
provide good results under heterogeneous traffic situations.
Some of the key reasons for this happening are discussed
below.
The traffic flow situation in Indian cities is highly hetero-
geneous where the user behavior is significantly different
from that under homogeneous traffic situations. Thus, the
choice of significant variables for the BLOS model develop-
ment under these differing situations is significantly different.
The newly developed FN based BLOS model has considered
two new variables namely, interruptions by unauthorized
stoppages of intermittent public transits (IIPT) and frequency
of driveways carrying a high volume of traffic (D). In Indian
cities, the intermittent public transits (e.g., 3-wheeler autos
and city buses) frequently stop on the roadsides for the
boarding and drop down of people and goods. These
haphazard activities were observed to hinder the path of on-
street bicyclists and cause significant (p < 0.001) discomfort to
them. Hence, a new parameter, IIPT, was included in the
model building process to address these negative influences.
Similarly, the presence of driveways also creates considerable
interruptions to the movements of bicyclists. Bicyclists
perceived to develop significant (p < 0.001) dissatisfaction and
frustration under the influence of driveways carrying a high
volume of traffic. However, while all driveways were consid-
ered together (including those carry less traffic volume), the
frequency of driveways parameter had an insignificant
(p > 0.001) correlation with the BLOS score. Thus, the fre-
quency of driveways carrying a high volume of traffic only
been considered in this study. These key factors have aided
the proposed model to have a better prediction performance
in the present context.
5.6. Ranges of BLOS classes (AeF)
BLOS scores obtained for the study corridors were stratified
into six BLOS classes (A through F) using a simple concept
commonly used in traffic engineering studies. The mean value
of all perceived BLOS scores was approximately 3.5, which
corresponds to the boundary between BLOS classes C and D.
By considering the symmetry of this boundary point, the BLOS
scale has been determined as follows.
BLOS A (excellent service quality): BLOS score  1.5.
BLOS B (good service quality): 1.5 < BLOS score  2.5.
BLOS C (average service quality): 2.5 < BLOS score  3.5.
BLOS D (below average service quality): 3.5 < BLOS
score  4.5.
BLOS E (poor service quality): 4.5 < BLOS score  5.5.
BLOS F (very poor service quality): BLOS score > 5.5.
6. Model applications and observations
The BLOS score of each studied segment was estimated
through the application FN model, and the corresponding
service category (AeF) was determined by using the BLOS
scale discussed earlier. Results showed that not even a single
road segment is offering excellent service quality (BLOS A) or
very poor service quality (BLOS F). From study corridors,
around 4%, 46%, 43% and 7% segments are offering service
qualities of B, C, D and E, respectively. This indicates that the
majority (around 95%) of studied segments in Indian mid-
sized cities are offering average or inferior services to bi-
cyclists. The probable reasons behind this happening are
discussed below.
As observed from the sensitivity analysis, WOTLE followed
by PHVL has the highest impact on the BLOS of urban street
segments. WOTLE is primarily determined by the widths of
bicycle lane, paved shoulder, and the outermost lane. How-
ever, the study corridors identified from mid-sized cities of a
developing country like India do not have the provision of the
separate bicycle lane or wide outside lane facilities. Although
few road segments (e.g., Nandan Kanan Road corridor of
Bhubaneswar City) have the provision of the shared-use path;
those are very poorly maintained, often occupied by street
vendors, parked by motor vehicles illegally, or often poor
drainage water occupies the space. In this situation, bicyclists
prefer to ride on the main carriageway rather than the shared-
use path. Hence, these segments are able to offer BLOS B or
inferior although they are designed to offer better services.
The provision of wide outside lanes (or paved shoulders) at the
present scenario is also very rare. Moreover, the city roads are
influenced by the heterogeneous flow of 148e2586 PCU/h/
lane. Other factors such as good pavement conditions with
proper lane markings, land use pattern that brings nice aes-
thetics to the bicycling environment and restrictions on on-
street parking activities are also greatly missing on these
study corridors. Hence, the study corridors are not able to
offer BLOS class A. However, few road segments (around only
4%) having the provision of the 5e7 m wide outermost lane
(including paved shoulder) and carrying below 900 PCU/h/lane
traffic volume during peak hours are observably offering good
services, i.e., BLOS B. These few segments are also somewhat
free from on-street parking and vending activities.
Approximately 87% of the total studied segments are of-
fering average and below average quality of services, i.e.,
BLOSs C and D. These segments are mostly 4-lane or 6-lane
roads and carry up to 2600 PCU/h/lane traffic volume during
the peak hours. Outermost lane or paved shoulder being
partially occupied by street vendors, parked vehicles or
roadside advertisement panels, its effective width was
observed to be constricted. Pick up travelers also mostly use
this lane to catch intermittent public transports such as
shared van and 3-wheelers at their own convenience. These
all activities combined together largely degrade the riding
quality of bicyclists. Thus, necessary actions should be taken
against these trivial activities in order to achieve better BLOS
classes.
City roads passing through the market area are mostly 2-
lane undivided and are often characterized by high on-street
parking turnover of up to 6000 veh/h/k. Kachery Road of
Rourkela City was observed to be one of them. These road
segments look like open markets, where vendors and cus-
tomers have many activities to perform on the roads. Here,
 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
commercial activities predominate over any other activities
including travel. This results in the increasing pedestrian
volume, traffic congestion, on-street parking turn-over, and
the constriction of usable road space. Here, the frequency of
access roads is also very high which frequently hinders the
path of through bicyclists and increases the risk of side colli-
sions. Over-utilization of these segments also deteriorate the
pavement surface quality. These conditions combined
together have made these few segments to offer poor level of
service, i.e., BLOS E. Road segments on which very poor service
quality F was expected were perhaps not observed in the
study area. Roadways connecting important places to fulfill
the high functional requirements on which motorized traffic
occupies the full carriageway width and also tries to maintain
a high speed is the worst condition that a bicyclist may
encounter. Inter-city roads or origin and termination part of
any expressway inside a city are also the locations where very
poor service F can be expected. Under such scenarios, the
provision of a separate bicycle lane could provide better ser-
vice levels to the bicyclists.
7. Conclusions
The development of a reliable bicycle level of service (BLOS)
model being the prime objective this study, several crucial
conclusions are drawn from the data analyses and field
observations. The Pearson's correlation analysis carried out
for identifying the significant variables has reported that
eight several variables are contributing to the quality of
bicycling on urban road segments in mid-sized cities car-
rying heterogeneous traffic. These variables include effec-
tive width of the outermost lane (WOTLE), peak hour traffic
volume per lane (PHVL), roadside commercial activities (CA),
pavement condition index (PCI), frequency of driveways
carrying a high volume of traffic (D), average traffic speed (S),
and unauthorized on-street stoppages of intermittent public
transits (IIPT). An in-depth review of the literature has
revealed that, the regression analysis is being primarily used
for the development of BLOS models. However, the present
study has accomplished the BLOS model development
through the application of a novel and advantageous
modeling approach namely, functional networks (FNs). FN is
one of the recently developed artificial intelligence tech-
niques whose architecture is based on the structure of the
physical world. Several added advantages have made the
technique as a powerful alternative to the artificial neural
networks (ANNs) approach. The BLOS model developed in
this study has shown an excellent performance in the pre-
sent context in terms of both goodness-of-fit and prediction
precision. The correlation coefficient (R) between model
predicted and overall perceived BLOS scores was observed to
be as high as 0.94. Several other statistical parameters, such
as NasheSutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E), error measuring
parameters, and overfitting ratio, etc., were also applied to
model performance. As observed through this in-depth
investigation, the functional networks (FNs) based BLOS
519
model developed in this study is highly reliable for its ap-
plications in mid-sized cities under heterogeneous traffic
flow situations.
A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to detect the
relative importance of input variables based on their per-
centage contribution to the prediction of bicycle service
quality. The effective width of the outermost lane is
observably the most important variable in the present
context, and contributing 38.3% to the FNs model prediction
of BLOS score. Hence, the provision of a wide outer lane
and/or paved shoulder is well desired to enhance the quality
of bicycling environment. Traffic volume on the main car-
riageway is observably the second most important variable
and contributing 21.8% to the model prediction. Due to the
heterogeneous flow of motor vehicles, several small to big
vehicles interact with on-road bicyclists and sufficiently
degrade their perceived satisfaction levels. Thus, the mini-
mization of bicycle-vehicle interactions through the provi-
sion of a separate bicycle lane is well desired in order to
enhance the bicycle service quality. Likewise, cross-traffic
flow from the on-street parking area obstructs the path of
through bicyclists and significantly hampers their sense of
safety. This activity being the third most important variable
is contributing 12.7% to the model prediction. The remain-
ing significant variables in a descending order of importance
are roadside commercial activities, pavement condition
index, frequency of driveways carrying a high volume of
traffic, average traffic speed, and unauthorized on-street
stoppages of intermittent public transits. Thus, taking ac-
tions for the minimization of street vending activities and
maintaining the smoothness of pavement surface, etc., are
some other key factors for the improvement of bicycle ser-
vice quality.
The study effort goes beyond the BLOS model development
by summarizing several crucial observations obtained from the
model's field applications. As observed, around 95% of the
studied segments are offering average (BLOS C) or inferior ser-
vice qualities for the bicycle use. The performance of existing
facilities may degrade over time period due to several reasons,
including a gradual increase in traffic volume, increase in
commercial activities within urban areas and degradation in
pavement qualities, etc. Hence, the quality of existing facilities
should be timely augmented for the betterment of bicycle
users. One major contribution of this research is the develop-
ment of highly reliable and statistically calibrated BLOS model
suitable for application in midsized cities under the influence of
heterogeneous traffic conditions. The developed model and
other findings will help in long-term transportation planning,
assessment of on-street bicycling environment, development
of bicycle-friendly road infrastructures, identification of which
road attribute should be primarily prioritized to enhance the
operational efficiency of the on-street bicycle facilities, identi-
fying most suitable bicycling route inside a city, and much
more. As bicycle lanes are not available on study corridors, the
developed model does not address the influence of this
parameter, which is one limitation of this study. The model
may not perform well in few specific locations where numerical
520 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521

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 J. Traffic Transp. Eng. (Engl. Ed.) 2017; 4 (6): 503e521
Mr. Sambit Kumar Beura is currently a PhD
research scholar at Transportation Engi-
neering Division, Department of Civil Engi-
neering, National Institute of Technology
(NIT) Rourkela, India. He received his bach-
elor's degree in civil engineering from Orissa
Engineering College, Biju Patnaik University
of Technology (BPUT), Odisha, India in 2013.
His research activity is focused on capacity
and level of service analysis of trans-
portation facilities, driver behavior, non-
motorized modes of transportation, urban transportation plan-
ning, soft computing and statistical modeling.
521
Dr. Prasanta Kumar Bhuyan is currently an
assistant professor in the Department of Civil
Engineering, NIT Rourkela, India. He has
gained PhD from Indian Institute of Tech-
nology (IIT) Bombay and postdoctoral
research experiences from Georgia Institute
of Technology, USA. He has published over 40
articles in international journals and confer-
ence proceedings. He has guided 27 students
for their master theses and guiding several
PhD scholars. His research activity is focused
on operational analysis of transportation facilities considering both
motorized and non-motorized modes. Also he focuses on applica-
tion of GIS, GPS, statistical methods and artificial intelligence
techniques for transportation data analysis and modeling.