Concepts in Probability and Statistics

Jose Elibiel Parra Soto

Roel Braekers
Biostatistics Hasselt University
November 2010

= 0.95 ∗ 0.90 + 0.9 + 0.95

= 0.99

• 3.57 Replacing cutting tools

 A.
2x2x6x7
 B.
• 3.33 Intrusion detection systems 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
168 + 168 + 168 + 168 + 168 + 168 + 168 + 168 =
let A to be the event "The alarm A sounds" 8
168
let B to be the event "The alarm B sounds"  C. 2
let C to be the event "There is an Intrurer" 7

• 4.2 Dust mite allergies

 A.
y 0 1 2 3 4
P(y) 0.09 0.30 0.37 0.20 0.04
P (A/C) = 0.90
 A.
P
P (y) = 1
P (B/C) = 0.95
P (A/C ¬ ) = 0.2
 B. P (3 ≤ y ≤ 4) = P (y = 3) + P (y =
P (B/C ¬ ) = 0.1 4) = 0.24

 C. P (y = 0) + P (y = 1) = 0, 39
 B.
• 4.11 Dust mite allergies
P (A ∩ B/C) = P (B/C) ∗ P (A/C)
 A. E(Y ) = 4i=0 P (yi )(yi ) = 1.8
P
= 0.95 ∗ 0.90
In conclusion; the espected value of of
houses with a dust mite allergen level over
Because there is independency to 2 micrograms is 2.
 C.  B.
P (A ∩ B/C ¬ ) = P (B/C ¬ ∗ P (A/C ¬
= 0.1 ∗ 0.2
4
X
σ 2 = E[(Y − µ)2 ] = P (yi )(yi − µ)2
i=0
 D. The probability of having A o B or = 0.98
A ∩ B given an intrurer
P (B/C) + P (A/C) + P (A ∩ B/C)

1
  C.  C. the probabily that at least 10 guppies
µ ± 2σ = 1.8 ± 2(0.98) = [−0.16, 3.76] survive. Then it coulbe 11 or 12 or...20
20  
P [−0.16 ≤ Y ≤ 3.76] = 0.96
X 20
P (Y ) = pi q 20−i
i=10
i
Notice this value is similar to the 20  
aproximation of the empirical rule for a 20
X
= 0.60i 0.420−i
95% i=1
i

• 4.17 Dust mite allergies • 4.28 Fungi in beech forest trees

Notice the function we are dealing with  A.

is: X9  
20 i 20−i
P (Y ≺ 10) = pq
i=1
i
if x = 2000

0.30 20  
20

if x = 4000
 X
0.37 = 0.25i 0.7520−i

F (x) = i
 0.20 if x = 6000 i=1
if x = 8000

0.04

 B.
 A.
20  
 E(X) = 4i=1 F (Xi )(Xi ) = 1 ∗ 600 + 2 ∗
P X 20
P (Y  15) = pi q 20−i
740 + 3 ∗ 400 + 4 ∗ 80 = 3600 i
i=16
 B. 20  
X 20
= 0.25i 0.7520−i
σ 2 = E[X 2 ] − µ2 i=16
i
= 16880000 − 36002
 C. We expect to have 5 tress dammaged.
√ • 4.42 Dust Explosions
 C. µ ± 2σ = 3.600 ± 2( 3.920.000) = Industry Proportion
[0, 7.559, 8] Wood/Paper 0.30
Grain/foodstus 0.10
Metal 0.07
• Ecotoxicological Survival study
Power Generation 0.07
Plastic/Mining/Textil 0.08
 A. This is a Binomial distribution, be- Miscellaneous 0.38
cause it's composed by a Bernoulli Tri-  A.
als; The trial results in mutually exclu- P (y1 = 7, y2 = 5, y3 = 2, y4 = 0, y5 =
sive outcomes which are exaustive. And 1, y6 = 5) =
the probability of the ocurrence and no
ocurrence sum up one. Finally; the trials n! y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6
y1 !y2 !y3 !y4 !y5 !y6 ! P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 =
are independent.
 B. Let be Y the number of guppies which
survived after 5 days. 20! 7 5 2 0 1
7!5!2!0!1!5! 0.30 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.38
5

 B.
 
n y n−y
P (Y ) = p q
y 2  
X 20
P (Y1 ≺ 3) = pi q 20−i
 
20
= 0.607 0.413 i=1
i
7
2  
= 0.014 X 20
= 0.30i 0.7020−i
i=1
i

2
• Tapeworms in Fish  B.
 A. Let Y be the number of brill that must
  
r N −r
be sampled until a parasitic infection is y n−y
found. and P = 0.544 P (Y ) =  
N
n
= P (y = 1) + P (y = 1)
y−1
P (Y = y) = pq      
94 38 94 38
= (0.544)(1 − 0.544)2 9 1 10 0
=   +  
= 0.133 132 132
10 10
 B.
2
= 0.1585
X
1 y−1
P (Y ≤ 2) = p q
y=1
• 4.69 Rare planet transits

 A.
2  
X y−1
= p1 q y−1
1−1 ∞
y=1 X λi e−λ
2 P (Y  y) =
X i!
= 0.5441 (1 − 0.544)y−1 i=y
∞
y=1 X 5.6i e−5.6
=
= P (y = 1) + P (y = 1) i!
i=y
= 0.544 + 0.248
= 1 − P (Y ≤ 10)
= 0.792 10
X 5.6i e−5.6
 C. =
i!
∞ i=0
X
P (Y  2) = p1 q y−1 = 0.28
y=3
∞   • Ambient Air Quality
X y − 1 1 y−1
= p q
y=3
1−1  A.
∞
20
λi e−λ
X
= 0.5441 (1 − 0.544)y−1 P (Y ≤ y) =
X
y=3
i=0
i!
= 1 − P (y ≤ 2) 20
X 18i e−18
= 1 − 0.792 =
i=0
i!
= 0.208
• 4.61 NZ Birds  B.
 A. 10
X λi e−λ
   P (5 ≤ y ≤ 10) =
r N −r i=5
i!
y n−y 10
P (Y ) =   X 18i e−18
N =
i!
n i=5
= P (y ≤ 10) − P (y ≺ 5)
  
94 38
5 5 10 4
= 
X 18i e−18 X 18i e−18
132
 = −
i=0
i! i=0
i!
10
√ √
= 0.0883  C. λ2 = σ then λ = σ = 18

3
  D. One of the Characteristics of a Poisson • Time a train is late
Probability Distribution, is the number of
500 (25 − y ) if − 5 ≺ y ≺ 5
 3 2
events that occur in one unit of time are f (y) =
0 elsewhere
independent of the number that occur in
other units. And it seems that the events  A.
trhoughout the years have correlation. Z ∞
E(y) = yf (y) dy
• 5.1 Let c be a constant of the following density −∞
function
Z 5
3
E(y) = y( (25 − y 2 )) dy
2
if 0 ≤ y ≤ 2 500

cy −5
f (y) =
0 elsewhere = 0.0
 A. The Value of the Z ∞
2
Z 2 E(y ) = y 2 f (y) dy
2 −∞
cy dx = 1 Z 5
0 3
1 E(y) = y2 ( (25 − y 2 )) dy
c= Z 2 −5 500
2
y dx
0
σ 2 = E(y 2 ) − E(y)
c = 0.375
=5
 B. Accumulative distribution Function
F(y=1)  B.
Z ∞
E(y) = yf (y) dy
Z 1
3 2 −∞
F (y) = t dt Z 5
8 3
0 E(y) = y( (25 − y 2 )) dy
3
y 0 500
=
8 = 0.0
 C. The Accumulative distribution Func- Z ∞
tion F (y) 2
E(y ) = y 2 f (y) dy
−∞
Z 5
Z 1
3 2 3
F (y) = t dt E(y) = y2 ( (25 − y 2 )) dy
8 0 500
0
3
1
= σ 2 = E(y 2 ) − E(y)
8
= 0.0014
 D. The Accumulative distribution Func-
tion  C.
Z ∞
Z 1 E(y) = yf (y) dy
3 2 −∞
F (y) = t dt
0 8 Z 0
3
E(y) = y( (25 − y 2 )) dy
0.53 −5 500
=
8 Z ∞
= 0.0156
E(y 2 ) = y 2 f (y) dy
 E. P (1 ≤ Y ≤ 32 ) −∞
Z 0
3
3 3 E(y) = y2 ( (25 − y 2 )) dy
P (1 ≤ Y ≤ ) = P (Y ≤ ) − P (Y ≤ 1) −5 500
2 2
1.53 13 σ 2 = E(y 2 ) − E(y)
= −
8 8
= 18, 000
= 0.2969