Geometric Probability

Geometric probability is a tool to deal with the problem of infinite outcomes by

measuring the number of outcomes geometrically, in terms of length, area, or volume.
In basic probability, we usually encounter problems that are "discrete" (e.g. the
outcome of a dice roll; see probability by outcomes for more). However, some of the
most interesting problems involve "continuous" variables (e.g., the arrival time of
your bus).

Dealing with continuous variables can be tricky, but geometric probability provides a
useful approach by allowing us to transform probability problems into geometry
problems. If this sounds surprising, take a look at the following problem:

Your bus is coming at a random time between 12 pm and 1 pm. If you show up at
12:30 pm, how likely are you to catch the bus?

1
Intuitively, the answer seems to be . We can show this geometrically by
2
considering a point chosen randomly on a 1-dimensional number line: the length of
the number line between 12:30 pm and 1 pm is equal to the length from 12 pm to
12:30 pm.

While this example is fairly straightforward, many complicated problems can be

solved simply by using geometric probability. On this page, we will start with 1D
examples, which are the simplest and easy to understand and then work our way up
to 2D, 3D, and higher dimensions.

Introduction
One of the main ideas in probability is to count the number of equally likely "desired"
outcomes, and then divide that by the number of equally likely total outcomes:

desire outcomes
P ( X )=
total outcomes

However, when a variable is continuous, it becomes impossible to "count" the

outcomes in the traditional sense. For example, if x is a random real number between
0 and 1, it could be 0.2 or 0.53 or 0.434662565465465 or even something irrational
like It is clear that there are infinite outcomes if we count in the traditional sense.

1-dimensional Geometric Probability

Let's look more at the situation where X is a random real number, as mentioned in
the Introduction section.

X is a random real number between 0 and 3. What is the probability X is closer to 0

than it is to 1?

Since there are infinitely many possible outcomes for the value of X we will take the
equally likely outcomes as random points along the number line from 0 to 3. It’s easy
to see that X will be closer to 0 than it is to 1 if X <0.5

Probability line

Now, we can use the measures (lengths, in this 1D case) of our possible outcomes
and apply the usual probability formula. Here,
X is closer
lenght of segment where 0< X< 0.5 0.5
P ( ¿0 than 1 )= =
lenght of segment where 0< X <3 3

To reiterate, the core idea in one-dimensional (1D) geometric probability is

translating a probability question into a geometry problem on a number line, where
we measure outcomes with length. To make sure you've got this concept down, try
this problem related to rounding errors:

Example Problem

A number is uniformly chosen from [0.15, 0.25]. It was rounded to two decimal places
and then to one decimal place. The probability that the final value is 0.2 is X %. What
is X?

Assumption: Use rounding "half away from zero". That is, if the number is equally far
from the two closest numbers, choose the one away from zero. For example, 2.5 is
equally far from 2 and 3, so round 2.5 to 3. Answer 0.95
The reason as to why this works is a more advanced topic, which deals with the idea
of measure theory. Measure theory gives a rigorous framework for probability theory,
including probabilities on finite sets. Measure theory is also the key idea behind
integration in calculus, and can be used to find integrals of functions that seem non-
integrable using “standard” methods. These two ideas are not unrelated, as at a
fundamental level, probability theory is just a special case of integration.

We will do a few more examples on working with geometric probabilities in higher

dimensions to get a better feel for how to work with the concept. It is often helpful to
use a figure to help with understanding and solving these types of problems.

2-dimensional Geometric Probability

Many probability problems include more than one variable, so 1D geometric
probability won't be enough. For problems with two variables, it is often helpful to
transform them into 2D geometric probability questions, where the outcomes are
measured by area:

This is most easily understood when the problem at hand is explicitly a 2D geometry
problem:

A dart is thrown at a circular dartboard such that it will land randomly over the area
of the dartboard. What is the probability that it lands closer to the center than to the
edge?

The set of outcomes are all of the points on the dartboard, which make up an area
of πr 2 where r is the radius of the circle. The points that are closer to the center
r
than to the edge are those that lie within the circle of radius around the center,
2
2 2
r πr
so the area of the "success" outcomes is π ( ) =
2 4

Thus,
The difficulty associated with geometric probability usually comes from one of two
areas: the first is finding a good way to model the problem geometrically, and the
second is in trying to determine the areas/volumes of particular regions in order to
calculate the relative probabilities. As in finite probability, it is sometimes simpler to
find the probability of the complement.

To make sure you've got down the basic ideas of 2D geometric probability, try this
similar question. Note that many 2D geometry problems, such as the one below, use
the ideas of composite figures. If you are not familiar with that concept, you may
want to take a look at composite figures first.

However, one of the most powerful uses of geometric probability is applying it to

problems that are not inherently geometric. Identifying when and how to use
geometric probability is never obvious, but a good sign is that you are dealing with
probabilities in a situation with continuous variables. Let's take a look at a modified
example of the bus problem mentioned at the beginning of this wiki.
Now that we have changed our problem into a geometric one, we can easily answer
other questions about the situation such as the following:
1) What is the probability that the bus does not have to wait for you?
2) What is the probability that you had to wait less than 10 minutes, given that you
were able to catch the bus?
3) What is the probability that the bus came and went before you, given that you were
not able to board the bus?

To practice these ideas, let's try a similar question:

Submit your answer

Dave and Kathy both arrive at Pizza Palace at two random times between 10:00 p.m.
and midnight. They agree to wait exactly 15 minutes for each other to arrive before
leaving. What is the probability that Dave and Kathy see each other?

If the probability is for coprime positive integers, give the answer as .

Submit your answer

You have many chocolate bars of unit length and start breaking each of them into 3
pieces by randomly choosing two points on the bar. What are the average lengths of
the shortest, medium, and longest pieces?

If the product of these averages can be expressed as , where and are coprime
positive integers, give your answer as .

3-dimensional Geometric Probability

At this point, you can probably guess where this is headed! 3D geometric probability
is when we are dealing with 3 continuous variables, and we measure the volume of
the various outcomes; that is,
To get started, let's look at an example which is analogous to the first problem we
solved in the 2D geometric probability section.

Of course, not all problems will be so explicitly geometric in nature. As usual, one of
the signs that we might want to apply geometric probability is that we are dealing
with continuous variables. Let's see how we can approach the following example:

If you'd like to test your skills at turning probability problems into 3D geometry
problems, take a shot at this challenging problem which is similar to the example
above: