Four challenges for Turkey in the

near future
There are hardly any countries in the world whose political agendas are as intense as
Turkey’s. Such is the price it pays for being an active player in a turbulent, chaos-ridden
region. As if the heavy toll of violent conflicts in Syria and Iraq are not enough, the Turkish
government recently has had to take initiative regarding the Qatar crisis and the
developments at Al-Aqsa Mosque.

At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that the steps Ankara has taken to promote
security and stability in recent years changed the nature of its alliance with Western
countries. German politicians calling for economic sanctions against Ankara and U.S.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford expressing concern about
Turkey’s S-400 deal with Russia are two cases in point.

Ahead of Turkey’s 2019 elections, the country will be compelled to deal with domestic and
international challenges. It would appear that there are certain governments that simply do
not want the Turks to leave behind the period of turmoil that began in 2013. As a matter of
fact, they seem to be laying the groundwork for a two-year battle over the Turkish
presidency.

It is possible to predict that Turkey will face challenges in four areas:

1) The aftermath of July 15 and the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) trials

2) The PKK and Democratic Union Party (PYD) presence in Syria and Iraq

3) Syrian refugees

4) The legal transition to the presidential system

To be clear, all of the above could place Turkey’s domestic stability, economic growth and
relations with the West at risk.
The fact that Western governments would like to see Turkey’s fight against FETÖ, the PKK
and the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) as a question of freedom
of expression and human rights violations instead of counterterrorism has turned into a
serious problem. Berlin’s calls for economic sanction and halt to customs union
negotiations, and the risk of this campaign spreading to other EU countries, in the wake of
the arrest of a German citizen in Turkey raises concerns about the future of the country’s
relations with the West. The main threat here is that certain countries could attempt to spark
an economic crisis in Turkey ahead of the 2019 elections. Let us hope for now that
economic diplomacy will end Berlin’s eagerness to hit President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
where it hurts. Turkey, however, needs to be prepared for any efforts by European countries
to impose economic sanctions on it. Again, it is important to keep in mind that the
shortcomings of the fight against FETÖ cannot be used to fuel social tensions.

The second challenge is related to the possibility of the PKK presence in northern Syria and
Iraq turning into an act of provocation in Turkey. Having taken advice from the United
States, Turkey’s ally, to rename itself the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the PKK’s
potential response to attacks on Afrin and places in Turkey and European capitals must be
taken into consideration. Turkey needs to lay the groundwork at the local and regional
levels for new crises with Washington that could be triggered by Turkish military action.

The third risk could involve Turkish nationalist attacks against the Syrian community in
Turkey. In order to address this threat, it is necessary for Turkey to adopt a comprehensive
integration policy and manage the public’s sensitivities.

The fourth and final challenge relates to the possibility that the main opposition Republican
People’s Party (CHP) will opt to take its struggle against the transition to the presidential
system to the streets.

In an effort to prevent Erdoğan from being re-elected in 2019, the above-mentioned circles
could seek to trigger any of the four challenges with an economic crisis. Under these
circumstances, political elites must remain alert to such risks.

Needless to say, Erdoğan’s strong leadership and the political consciousness of various
social groups in Turkey will be the driving force behind efforts to overcome the challenges
ahead. However, public institutions cannot afford to lack strategic foresight, coordination
and preparedness.