Currency Weekly Report

(Private and Confidential)

Balaji Consultancy Services

CONTENTS
Market Overview
Weekly Analysis with Fundamental and Technical Outlook
Important events of the Week.

MARKET OVERVIEW

US DOLLAR
We had a very great week, our calls for USD/JPY and EUR/USD proven right.
We argued that from Friday a great rallly is to set open and we shall trade over it was confirmed.
This week also have some great events unfolding in it.
Most specefically the market participants shall look for confirmation of the Yellen's case for rate hike.
Fischer has argued a case for two more rate hikes this year, so Sep rate hike is under watch.
For this purpose Friday's employment report shall have an important role to play.

Thus, key things that could happen are :-

1) $ to remain volatile through out the Week.
2) Heavy loads of Data to unleash this week specifically US Nonfarm payroll data set to be released on Friday.
3) Trade setup for above event shall be intimated in our Friday's early morning report.
4) From China data from Manufacturing sector shall effect the base metals complex.
5) Not good data is expected from China so base metals shall remain under pressure.
6) Crude Oil is also likely to fall due to surge in Dollar Index and also low chances to freeze the Output between OPEC membe

Trade Setup

1) Downward potiental of USD is capped, this week.

2) Short Positions not recommended.
3) Good Trade Setup of Buying USD/JPY and Selling Base Metals can be made.
4) On Monday BOJ's chair shall also speak, which could restrict the YEN's upward movement with USD.
Thus, Trade Setup Call is:

Go long with USD/JPY

Entry Range 101.35 to 101.55
STOP LOSS 100.65
Target Price 104

Go Short with EURO/USD

Entry Range 1.1175 to 1.1195
STOP LOSS 1.1125
Target Price 1.1085

Go Long with USD/CAD

Entry Range 1.2960 1.2980
STOP LOSS 1.292
Target Price 1.304

Go Short with Crude Oil

Entry Range 47.00 to 47.25
Stop Loss 48
Target Price 44

Important Events of the Week

-See Separate Tab
PEC member Countries.
Impact
No fill Low
Mid
High
***TIME IS GMT+-00
Date Currency Detail Actual Forecast Previous

MonAug 29 1:00am AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 8.20%

All Day GBP Bank Holiday

12:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.10% 0.10%

USD Personal Spending m/m 0.30% 0.40%

USD Personal Income m/m 0.40% 0.20%

10:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 16.30%

11:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y -1.30% -2.20%

JPY Unemployment Rate 3.10% 3.10%

11:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -0.90% -1.30%

TueAug 30 1:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m 1.20% -2.90%

6:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.00% 0.50%

30th-3rd GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.10% 0.50%

All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.10% 0.30%

7:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 103.1 102.7

EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.50% -0.60%

8:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.20% 0.30%

8:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.9B 5.2B

GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 1.20% 1.10%

GBP Mortgage Approvals 63K 65K

Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 1.24|1.3

12:30pm CAD Current Account -16.8B

CAD RMPI m/m 1.80%

CAD IPPI m/m 0.60%

1:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.10% 5.20%

2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 97.2 97.3

11:05pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -8 -12

11:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 0.70% 2.30%

WedAug 31 1:00am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

NZD ANZ Business Confidence 16

1:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.40% 0.20%

5:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 7.60% -2.50%

6:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 1.34

EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.50% -0.10%

6:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.30% -0.80%

EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.40% -0.40%

7:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -2K -7K

8:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.50% 11.60%

9:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.30% 0.20%

EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.90% 0.90%

 EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.10% 0.20%

EUR Unemployment Rate 10.00% 10.10%

12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 173K 179K

12:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.50% -0.60%

1:45pm USD Chicago PMI 54.1 55.8

2:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.70% 0.20%

2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.5M

10:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -1.40% 4.40%

11:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 56.4

11:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 5.60% 4.20%

ThuSep 1 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.9 49.9

CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.9

1:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q -4.00% -5.20%

AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.10%

1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.6

2:00am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.6

3:45am JPY 10-y Bond Auction -0.05|3.2

6:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y -2.00%

7:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -3.10% -3.90%

EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 50.8 51

7:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 50.5 50.1

7:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.2

7:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 48.5 48.5

7:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 53.6 53.6

8:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 51.8 51.8

8:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.2

11:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -57.10%

12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 265K 261K

USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q -0.60% -0.50%

USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 2.00% 2.00%

1:30pm CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI 51.9

1:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.1

2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52 52.6

USD Construction Spending m/m 0.60% -0.60%

USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 54.5 55

2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 11B

All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.2M 17.9M

11:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 23.10% 24.70%

FriSep 2 5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 41.6 41.3

7:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 15.0K -84.0K

8:30am GBP Construction PMI 46.6 45.9

9:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.10% 0.70%

12:30pm CAD Trade Balance -3.2B -3.6B

CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.20% 0.40%

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.30%

 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 186K 255K

USD Unemployment Rate 4.80% 4.90%

USD Trade Balance -43.0B -44.5B

2:00pm USD Factory Orders m/m 2.10% -1.50%