Streams and Floods amount of water we see in streams.

How Streams Get Started

It is common knowledge that flooding Streams do not exist at random. They have
afflicts high-rainfall areas, like New Orleans. definite patterns, the most common being like
But serious flooding also occurs, in desert the roots of a tree, where many tiny streams
areas of Arizona and New Mexico. What flow into larger ones, converging to form a sin-
determines the location, timing, and frequency gle large river (the trunk). Thus, streams
of these floods? How far from a river, or how generally form a network. This is useful
high above it, should a house be for safety knowledge if you are lost in the woods: Walk
downslope until you reach a stream, then
from floodwaters? Do flood waters carve the
follow it downstream until it flows into
ground surface? Can they excavate buried fuel
another, and so on. Eventually you will reach
storage tanks, old "sanitary landfills," or
civilization, because people build homes near
coffins from cemeteries? streams.
The origin and evolution of the stream
Streams pattern in any environment can be studied
simply by looking at the ground around your
Of all geological processes, the movement feet when it rains. As the raindrops hit the
of water on the land surface probably has the ground on a sloping surface, the water initially
greatest direct effect on human civilization. runs off as sheetflow, a thin layer of water
We depend on streams and rivers for energy, flowing downhill. Within a short distance,
travel, drinking water, and irrigation. however, surface irregularities focus the water
Because of humankind's fundamental need into small channels.
for water, civilization began on floodplains, The location of these channels may seem
the flat plains that flank a stream or river. to be random, but closer examination often
Worldwide, populations generally are more reveals a pattern. Perhaps the channels follow
dense along waterways. Most Egyptians still depressions along a path that animals have
live on the floodplain of the Nile River (Figure taken for years to reach a sheltered area.
7.1). In the United States, the New Orleans Or, perhaps they flow straight to the lowest
area long has been a commercial hub because area. Perhaps the rocks at the surface or
of its location on the lower floodplain of the under the soil are layered and tilted, so that
Mississippi River. the water finds an easy path along their
Stream characteristics and their surface. Or, possibly the rocks have been
development have been intensely studied by broken into parallel fractures (joints) that
scientists and engineers for as long as science channel the water. Perhaps the tilted rocks
has existed because of the obvious impact are a combination of strong and weak rock,
flowing water has on people's lives. such that the weaker rock erodes faster,
Interestingly, it was not until the seventeenth creating channels for the water. The
century that measurements of the volume of possibilities are many.
rain and snow convinced investigators that Whatever the cause, tiny water
precipitation was adequate to account for the channels called rills form quickly (Figure
7.2). Even at this early stage, the water is
picking up a load of sediment to carry. As they
merge downslope, the channels become larger.
The main channel that develops is said to
have tributaries, which are smaller feeder
streams that supply water to the main stream.
The region from which the stream
complex draws water is its catchment area
for precipitation, called its drainage basin.
Every bit of water that reaches the ground
as rain, snow, sleet, hail, dew, or frost—except
the portion that evaporates into the air—
becomes part of the water in the drainage
basin. Drainage basins may have areas as
small as a tabletop in a rill system or as large
as the vast catchment of the Mississippi River
(Figure 7.3).
Drainage basins differ, not only in
size, but in the type of rocks exposed, soil
thickness, amount of rainfall and snowfall
received, and the slope of tributary streams
within them. Each of these characteristics
affects the flooding tendency in the basin.
The drainage basin is a key concept in
determining flood potential (Figure 7.4).
The boundaries between the
drainage basins are called drainage divides.
They are easily traced on a map by finding
the upper ends of tributaries (Figure 7.4).
Larger streams have larger drainage basins.
Drainage basins enlarge over time as the
upper end of each tributary stream erodes the
rock and soil, nibbling its way, slowly
lengthening the stream headward. This is
headward erosion. If the upper end of a
stream erodes its way long enough, it
eventually will meet another stream.
Whichever of the two streams flows
more steeply will capture the drainage of the
other stream
We think of mountain streams as being
steep and tumbling, and lowland streams as
being more level and slower. This is
generally correct, as Figure 7.5 shows. Any
established stream has the longitudinal profile
shown, with a steeper slope upstream toward
its head and a much gentler slope downstream
toward its mouth.
Given millions of years, a few large
streams come Lo dominate a continent's
drainage. Usually, only one or two such master
streams develop on each continent, such as the
Amazon River in South America, the Nile and
Congo Rivers in Africa, the Mississippi River
in North America, and the Chang Jiang River
(formerly Yangtze) in eastern Asia (China).
Stages of Stream Development
Glance at aerial photos of streams, and you
will see clear differences among them. Some
stream valleys are deep and V-shaped, with the
stream occupying the entire lower portion of
the V (Figure 7.6). Other stream valleys are
very wide and flat, with the stream width being
only a very small percentage of the valley
width (Figure 7.7A). What causes such
differences? Of what significance are they to
environmental concerns?
V-shaped valleys are formed during the
early stage of a stream's evolution. This is
evident in mountainous regions, where the
stream's headwaters lie in a notch that the
stream has carved into a ridge. Stream level
may be many hundreds of feet below the level
of the ridge peaks at its sides. The rocks of the
ridge are strong enough to resist major
landsliding into the valley, at least
temporarily. However, the common presence
of boulders in such a stream indicates that
some landsliding (rockfall) is indeed occurring.
Few people live in mountain highlands, so this
mass movement is not an important
environmental concern, except to the
snowbirds who enjoy frigid weather.
As a stream descends from the mountains,
its steep slope sharply levels out where the
mountains end and join a plain. Velocity
decreases, so the larger sediment particles—
mostly gravel and some sand—are deposited in
the stream bed. This increases the proportion of
fine mud particles to sand in the water. As this
happens, the stream begins to weave from side
to side, forming snakelike meanders (Figure
7.713). The meander shapes migrate
downstream as their development proceeds and
the weaving widens the valley. Previous
meander paths are commonly evident in aerial
photos (Figure 7.713).
The rocks in lowland areas are generally
sedimentary rocks, with shale being most
abundant. Shale is very thinly layered and
always fractured so it is not difficult nor or the
river to widen the valley. If the lowland materials
are loose sediment, deposited by earlier
episodes of stream development, then valley
widening will occur very rapidly, perhaps
within a few tens of years. The wide, flat
valley created by the weaving meanders is
called the floodplain (Figure 7.7A), the zone to
which floods are usually confined when the
river overflows its banks. When the river is in
flood, the floodplain is called the floodway.
Stream Discharge
The most common stream characteristic
determined by hydrologists is stream
discharge. Discharge is the volume of water
flowing past a point each second (or minute,
or hour, or day). Thus, discharge involves both
the size of a stream and how fast it flows.
Discharge is calculated like this:
discharge = stream width x stream depth x
stream velocity (cubic feet/ (feet)
(feet) (feet/second)
second)
You can see that a stream's width, length, and
velocity each control its discharge volume. This
also is shown in Figure 7.8.
Figure 7.9 shows a stream at four different
times—prior to a flood and at three stages
during a flood. Note what happens to its
discharge and depth.
Stream channels differ in the amount of
frictional resistance to water flow offered by
the stream bed and banks. Resistance to flow is
large in a broad, shallow channel. It is much
less in a deep, narrow channel. Also, resistance
to flow caused by a stream's banks slows water
near the banks, creating the drag shown in
Figure 7.10. Consequently, stream velocity is
fastest at the center of a stream, and near the
surface.
Stream discharges increase downstream as
tributary streams add their water to the amount
in the trunk stream. In very large streams like
the Mississippi River, the average discharge is
almost beyond comprehension-553,000 cubic
feet per second—a volume of more than 300
billion gallons of water per day, measured
at the river's mouth, where it discharges
into the Gulf of Mexico.
Because discharge varies with the season
and precipitation throughout a stream's
basin, a single measurement of a stream's
discharge means little. Discharge must be
measured repeatedly at the same locality to
provide a useful scientific picture of a
stream's discharge, power, and potential
destructiveness ogists a better
understanding of how flow varies with
time.
In the United States, such sampling
localities, called gauging stations, have
been in operation fo more than 100 years
(Figure 7.11). The U.S. Geologic a.' Survey
(USGS) maintains more than 11,000
gauging stations on principal streams and
their tributaries.. Therefore, a wealth of
flow data for a large number o streams is
available from the USGS and many state
geoiogical surveys.
For any stream, a graph can show its
discharge versus water height above a
selected level (called a datum). The best- by examining the growth rings of old trees. Annual
fit line through the data points is called a runoff has been correlated with the width of these
annual rings.
rating curve (Figure 7.12). Once this curve is
Gauging stations have been present on the
constructed, the only variable observed Colorado for about 100 years, so the period from 1899
directly is the height of the river above the to 1963 was used as a calibration period. If rings for
datum, called the stage. Stage is used to times before gauging are thicker than during the
predict discharge, essential in flood 1899-1963 period, then runoff, discharge, and
management. precipitation were greater than today. If thinner, then
runoff, discharge, and precipitation were less than
Historical Trends in Discharge. The today.
United States, at about 220 years of age, is a The results of this study are shown in
young country compared to many others, Figure 7.13, from which several facts are evident.
some of which are ten times that age, or First, the period 1907-1930 contained the longest
more. Our streamflow records from gauging series of high-flow years in the entire 450-year
stations are less than 200 years old. record. Only one other period in the early
1600s is comparable. Second, droughts between
Consequently, no direct measurements of 1868 and 1892 and between 1564 and 1600 are of
stream discharge are available with which to longer duration and of greater magnitude than
identify periods of drought or water for any other period during the gauged
abundance for earlier times. Such record. Unfortunately, it was during the 1907-
information is quite important, however, 1930 high-flow period that the Colorado River
water-allocation pact was completed,
now that we are concerned with the possible apportioning this scarce water resource to Arizona
existence of long-term global cycles, cycles ranchers, the city of Los Angeles, and others.
that last much longer than 200 years. What can be the meaning of a water pact
Without long-term data, going back whose allocations of water were based on years of
hundreds or even thousands of years, it is unusually great , supply? And how are we to handle
difficult to accurately determine long-term droughts that can last for at least thirty years? The
continual court battles of recent years over the
trends.
distribution of Colorado River water suggest that the
How can we tell whether we are answer to these questions is perpetual litigation.
interfering in natural processes, unless
Stream Velocity
we really know how they work? There is a
Recall the longitudinal profile of streams in
strong suspicion among scientists that many Figure 7.5. Although streams all have similar
natural processes are cyclic. For example, because profiles, the steepness, or gradient, varies from
atmospheric temperature affects evaporation and stream to stream. This is important, because the
precipitation, the amount of rainfall may be cyclic. main control of stream velocity is stream
Another example, to be considered in Chapter 17, gradient, which is the vertical drop of a stream
is global warming (the global heat balance). per unit distance.
Whether or not such long-term cycles exist, short- For example, if a stream drops 20 feet in
term ones have practical consequences, so it is elevation over the distance of a mile, its gradient is
important to determine whether they exist. 20 feet per mile. The gradient of some mountain
Discharge measurements extending back many streams may be as great as 200 feet per mile. In
years, if they existed, would provide information contrast, portions of the lower Mississippi have a
useful in evaluating cyclic precipitation. very gentle gradient of only 0.5 foot per mile.
Despite our lack of stream-discharge measure- As a stream leaves a highland area and heads
ments for the United States beyond 200 years ago, across lowlands toward the ocean, its gradient de-
there is another way to approach the problem. creases. Does this mean that the stream's velocity
Stream discharge is closely related to surface will decrease, too? Not necessarily. There is more
runoff: the greater the runoff, the more water in water in the channel downstream, and this may
the streams and the higher their discharge. Using nullify the effect of decreasing stream gradient.
this concept, long-term stream flow records for the Stream velocity actually may increase downstream
Colorado River in the West have been constructed despite the lower gradient.
 As the stream moves over the bottom it causes
or creates friction with the channel base and sides.
This drag creates turbulence along the water-
sediment contact. Water cannot maintain a linear
(laminar) flow pattern and is disrupted into a
chaotic pattern (Figure 7.14). Spinning eddies rise
from the stream bottom, carrying with them
sediment that was deposited at an earlier time.
Because turbulence is present in all streams, the
shape of the channel is continually changing,
perhaps getting deeper, perhaps getting wider,
perhaps getting shallower as sediment eroded
upstream is deposited at the site. Even the slowest,
laziest stream experiences turbulence. Streams are
dynamic systems.
Stream Load
The material carried by a stream is its stream load. It
commonly is divided into three parts:
· Bed load is the gravel-to-sand-sized coarser
sediment that is too heavy to be lifted from the
stream bottom. It still is moved by the water,
transported by rolling or sliding. Sand-sized
grains can be lifted from the bottom, but are
too heavy to be carried downstream suspended
in the water, so they move in a hopping motion
called saltation.
· Suspended load is the sediment carried more
or less continuously within the body of the
water. This sediment is so fine-grained (silt-
sized and clay-sized particles) that, once
suspended by turbulence, it is kept suspended
almost indefinitely by ever-present eddies in the
water.
· Dissolved load is the dissolved material in
the the ions that were removed from minerals and
rocks during weathering.
In most large streams, 80-90 percent of the load is
suspended load because clay is produced in such great
abundance by weathering processes. The bulk of
the suspended sediment in streams is eroded soil on its
way to the ocean. The amount of suspended
sediment that a stream can carry increases very
rapidly as water discharge increases and is, for
practical purposes, unlimited. In some streams, the
amount of mud is so great that the water looks like
tomato soup because of the red color of the clay.
Figure 7.15 shows suspended mud being
discharged by the Mississippi River into the Gulf of
Mexico.
Why Does It Precipitate?
Streams are fed by precipitation: rain,
snow, sleet, and hail. But why does it precipitate?
Why does the moisture in the air fall to the ground,
sometimes gently and briefly, and other times in a
deluge for hours?
The answer lies in the ability of warm air to
house more moisture (water molecules) than cold
air (Figure 7.16). Recall that this is why it rains so
frequently and heavily in the tropics (Chapter 6).
Because of the more direct impact of nearly
perpendicular solar radiation at the oquator
compared to the poles (Figure 6.7), the ground at
the equator is continually warmed and thus is a
continual source of heat. Consequently, air at the
ground always is quite warm compared to the
air higher up. This warm air is less dense than cold
air, and thus is buoyant, so it rises. As it rises, it
expands and cools. As the air cools, it can hold less
moisture, so the moisture is "squeezed out"
(condenses). Gravity then pulls the moisture back
to Earth's surface—in other words, it rains. This is
why the equatorial region is rainy and steamy.
Hot, buoyant air that rises and cools is only
one way to generate precipitation. A second way to
cool warm, moist air is to force it to rise over a
mass of colder air. This is what happens when
warm, moist air moving north from the Gulf of
Mexico meets cold air moving southward. This
collision along the polar front is shown in Figure
7.17. The cold polar air is denser and hugs the
ground, whereas the warm air full of Gulf moisture
is less dense, and must rise over the co!d air. What
happens as the warm, wet air rises? It cools, pro-
ducing rain, just like over the equatorial region.
This phenomenon, occurring repeatedly, was
the cause of the great Midwest flood of 1993. That
year, the northward-bound warm air was stalled by
the stationary jet stream. So it rained, and it rained,
and it rained, as warm, moist air kept pushing
northward from the Gulf, a virtual river of water
vapor pushed up over colder air, condensing and
falling. This resulted in one of America's worst
floods.
A third way of forcing warm, moist air to rise is
to push it up over a mountain range. This occurs
on the west side of the Sierra Nevada in California,
where that north–south string of mountains gets in
the way of Pacific moist air that is pushing eastward.
The air must rise to go over the mountains and, as it
does, it cools. In rising air, the temperature drops
about one degree Fahrenheit for every 300 foot
increase in elevation. The rising air expands, cools,
and its moisture condenses and falls. As a result,
the west side of the Sierra Nevada is well-watered
and has abundant vegetation. The eastern side,
however, gets what is left, which is little. As one
moves progressively eastward across the Basin and
Range Province of Nevada and Utah, each valley grows
dryer than the one before (Figure 6.10).
The world's greatest annual rainfalls occur where
mountain barriers lie across the paths of moisture-
bearing winds. A famous example is Cherrapunji,
India, on the southern edge of the Himalaya,
Earth's highest mountain range. Warm, moist air
moving northward from the Indian Ocean is forced
to rise, expand, cool, and drop its bountiful load
of moisture, with the ex pected result. The
recording station at Cherrapunji averages 450
inches of rain a year (371/2 feet). In 1873, the total
was a relatively low 283 inches; in 1861, the
annual total was an incredible 905 inches (75 feet! ),
with 366 inches (30 feet) falling in the month of
July alone. For comparison, the average annual
precipitation in the United States is about 30 inches,
and the highest rainfall areas in the central Gulf
Coast and extreme northwestern coast receive perhaps
80 inches (Figure 6.4).
On our continent, the flash flood on the Big
Thompson River that killed 145 people in 1976 was
caused by cool air rising up a mountain slope, but
it was a rise caused by the daily temperature
change. In the late afternoon, cool afternoon
breezes flowed up the side of the Big Thompson
Canyon, cooled the warmer moist air sitting atop the
canyon slopes, and triggered the catastrophic
deluge. Such strong thunderstorms are quite
common in this part of the Rocky Mountains and
in Florida (Figure 7.18). See the section "Case Study:
Big Thompson Canyon, Colorado, 1976" later in
this chapter for more detail about these storm
prone areas. Florida, however, has no mountains
and the rains there are caused in another way.
Florida demonstrates the final way to make
warm air rise, expand, cool, and rain. This occurs
almost every afternoon in Florida and other
southeastern states. Warm air near the ground is
confined by a blanket of cooler air above. But intense
sunshine through the day heats the air, building
pressure. By late in the day, the air finally breaks
through the blanket of cool air to riqe, condense to form
clouds (Figure 7.19), and create thunderstorms.
These rains can cause flooding because Florida's
landscape is flat as a pancake and poor drainage
in some areas cannot remove the water as fast as it
accumulates.
The formula for precipitation is always the same:
warm, moist air is forced to rise by some mechanism; it
expands, cools, and rain, snow, sleet, or hail falls.
The only difference from place to place is the
mechanism that causes the warm air to rise.
Lightning
About 2000 thunderstorms are booming over
Earth at any moment. Meteorologists estimate that
these generate about 8 million lightning strikes per
day, averaging almost 100 strikes a second
(Figure 7.20). Lightning, of course, is not
distributed uniformly. You may see no lightning for
long periods, or you may see many flashes within
minutes.
These 8 million daily flashes worldwide
generate a million-million watts of electrical
power, more than the combined output of all the
electric power generators in the United States. About
100 people are killed by lightning in the United
States each year, about two- thirds of them in
June, July, and August, the months when
thunderstorms are most common. Three-quarters of
fatal lightning strikes hit men because they spend
more time outdoors than women. Golfers are
particularly prone to being hit.
Your chances of getting hit by lightning are
very slight: only 100 people out of the U.S.
population of about 255 million get nailed each
year. But one very unlucky park ranger in Virginia
was struck by lightning eight times before his
natural death (not from lightning). Lightning
caused him to lose his big toe in 1942, his eyebrows
in 1969, and his hair was set afire twice. Only
slight burns resulted from his other unplanned
electrical connections.
Benjamin Franklin was first to establish that
lightning is electricity. In 1752, he flew history's most
famous kite into a thunderstorm and watched the
sparks jumping from a key hanging on the kite string
to the knuckles of his hand. Luckily, his kite did not
receive a direct hit by a lightning bolt; if it had, history
would remember fried Franklin. Although two-thirds
of those involved with lightning make a full
recovery, it is probably because they were not
directly hit.
Lightning occurs because of positive and
negative charges that build at the tops and bases of
clouds (Figure 7.21). The charges build by friction
between rising and falling air drafts. It is similar to
the static charge you can generate by rubbing your
feet on a rug. The upper part of the cloud develops
pc5itive,:harges, the base negative charges.
Opposite charges attract, so when the charges
become strong enough to over power the
resistance of the atmosphere, a lightning bolt is
formed.
The atmosphere is a poor conductor of
electricity, so charges must build to at least 100
million volts before a lightning bolt can flash over.
Compare this voltage with that used in portable
electronics (3-9 volts), a car (12 volts), a table lamp
(115-120 volts), or electric range (220-240 volts).
A lightning flash typically lasts a brief fraction of
a second but generates a stunning 40 million
kilowatts of power in a channel that measures
only 0.1 inch to 4 inches in diameter. Concentrating
this extreme amount of energy into such a tiny area
superheats the air surrounding a lightning bolt to
more than 55,000 degrees Fahrenheit.
The number-one rule of lightning safety is to
stay indoors during a storm, away from metal
plumbing and wiring. Stay out of the shower and off
the phone (unless it's cordless or cellular). If you are
caught outside, don't seek shelter beneath a tree, for
trees are wonderful electrical conductors and favorite
targets for lightning, as is demonstrated by the
many farm animals that die beneath the oak they
thought was a good place to wait out the rain. Your
best protection if trapped outdoors is to lie in a low
place, for lightning seeks high points like trees,
antennas, utility poles, and church steeples.
Thunder, Son of Lightning
Thunderstorms are so called for the obvious
reason that they produce thunder. But they really
should be called lightning storms, for without
lightning, there would be no noise. The enormous
heat generated by a lightning bolt causes the air
near it to expand explosively, producing the intense
sound we call thunder. No lightning, no thunder.
Lightning and thunder occur at the same time. But
light energy travels at 186,000 miles per second,
whereas sound energy (which is the mechanical
shoving of air molecules) travels only 1100 feet per
second, so you see the lightning long before you
hear the thunder.
To get a rough estimate of the distance between
you and the lightning bolt, count the seconds from
the time you see the flash until you hear the
thunder. Every five seconds is a distance of about
5500 feet, or a little over a mile. Thunder normally
can be heard at least 10 miles from the lightning
strike, and occasionally as far as 15 miles.
Tornadoes
Thunderstorms produce not only rain, hail,
lightning, and thunder, but sometimes tornadoes
(Figure 7.22A). About 800 tornadoes are spotted in
an average year in the United States (Figure
7.22B). Canadians observe about twenty. About
one percent of thunderstorms give birth to
tornadoes, usually out of the backside of the storm.
Even when using the most sophisticated
equipment, tornado occurrence is unpredictable.
They pop out of the dark clouds, extending
Earthward in a dark mass of rotating wind from 5
yards to 300 yards wide, moving along the ground
a few miles or tens of miles at 30-40 mph, and then
retreat and disappear back into the clouds. Some
tornadoes have been clocked at 60-65 mph. Some
contact the ground and then lift, only to strike
again at a distance of a mile or two. I he devas-
tating force of a tornado comes from the increasing
speed with which the air rotates as it tightens into
a funnel, in the same way a figure skater
accelerates her spin by pulling her arms to her
chest.
The word tornado is a Spanish verb that means
"to turn." In shape, a tornado resembles an
elephant's trunk, formed by winds rotating at 300
mph or more (Table 7.1). Inside, the tornado acts as
a vacuum cleaner, sucking up anything loose it
encounters. Black soil vacuumed by a tornado
gives its funnel its usually dark color. Multiple
funnels may descend from the same cloud.
Tornadic winds are strong enough to raise
the roof and collapse a substantial house, suck up
a railroad car, or open the fibers of a telephone
pole and drive a straw through it. Paradoxically,
the winds can carry a jar of pickles unbroken or
pluck the feathers from a chicken. According to
calculations by structural engineers, a 160-mph
rotating wind will produce a lifting force of over 30
tons on a typical house. If the wind speed doubles to
more than 300 mph, the lifting force is 100 tons.
In the most deadly recorded tornado, 689
people died and more than 2000 were injured in
three mid-western states in 1925. In April 1991, a
four-state area was devastated when more than
seventy tornadoes touched down from Texas to
Nebraska, killing at least thirty people and causing
millions in property dam age. In April 1974, the Great
Plains experienced 127 tornadoes, killing 315 and
injuring over 6000 in eleven states, with damage
exceeding $600 million. The Red Cross estimated
that 27,590 families suffered some kind of loss.
Almost three-quarters of Earth's tornadoes
occur in the continental United States, and about a
third of these happen in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas,
a swath known as "tornado alley" (Figure 7.22B). Half
of these tornadoes occur in May and June.
From Kansas in June 1928 comes an
extraordinary account from a farmer named Will
Keller. He saw a tornado coming and, calling to his
family, ran to his tornado cellar. But just before
slamming the door, for a few seconds he took a good
look .. .
At last the great shaggy end of the funnel hung
directly overhead. Everything was as death. There
was a strong gassy odor and it seemed I could not
breathe. There was a screaming, hissing sound
coming directly from the end of the funnel. I looked
up and to my astonishment I saw right up into the
heart of the tornado.
There was a circular opening iii the center of the
funnel, about 50 to 100 feet in diameter, and
extending upward for at least one-half mile, as best
I could judge under the circumstances. The walls
of this opening were of rotating clouds and the
whole was made brilliantly visible by constant
flashes of lightning which zigzagged from side to
side.
Around the lower rim of the great vortex small
tornadoes were constantly forming and
breaking away. These looked like tails as they
writhed their way around the end of the funnel.
It was these that made the hissing noise. I noticed
that the direction and rotation of the great whirl
was anticlockwise [counterclockwise], but the
small twisters rotated both ways—some one way
and some another.
It is not possible to design structures to withstand
tornadoes; the winds are simply too strong, too
freakish, and too uncommon for such design to be
economically feasible. The National Weather
Service in the United States forecasts probable
tornado conditions and locally tracks the formation and
progress of the storms. Most tornadoes move from
southwest to northeast.
A tornado watch is announced when
conditions make severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes possible. However, 50-70 percent of the
warnings issued are not followed by tornadoes.
Tornado watches can cover thousands of square
miles. A tornado warning is announced when a
tornado actually is sighted, and people need to take
cover in a tornado cellar or basement. If you don't have
a tornado cellar or basement in your home, stay in
a windowless room in the center of the house,
such as a closet. Most tornado deaths result from
head injuries caused by flying and falling debris
produced by the high winds. If you protect your
head and neck, you have a much better chance of
surviving. If you have time, turn off the main gas
and electric service to reduce the likelihood of fire.
If you are outside, get inside. Any structure is
better than being out in the open. If you are unable
to get inside, run or drive at right angles to the
tornado's path. If !here is no time to escape, lie flat in
the nearest depression or ditch. Don't stay in your
vehicle. Most tornado deaths occur in mobile homes
and vehicles.
Floods
Precipitation—caused by the mechanisms
we explored in the last section—can lead to a
rapid increase in a stream's discharge (Figure
7.24). When a stream's discharge becomes so great
that it exceeds the capacity of its channel, it overflows
its banks in a flood. Floods are t he most
comm onl y experienced nat ural hazards (Figure
7.23). In the United States, rainstorms and their
resulting floods and debris flows accounted for 61
percent (337 of 531) of federally declared disasters
during 1965-1985.
Case Study: "Slow-Rise"
Flooding, U.S. Midwest, 1993
Flooding was widespread in the Midwest during
the summer of 1993 (Figure 7.25). This was the
costliest, most devastating flood in U.S. history.
Forty-eight people died and damage totaled $15 to $20
billion in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nebraska, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas. About
100,000 housing units (homes and apartment
buildings) were flooded. The failure of key
infrastructure, including 388 wastewater facilities,
spread the flood's effects far beyond the actual flooded
areas. Hazardous waste was released into floodwaters
from fifty-four sites on the federal government's most-
polluted list (see Superfund Sites in Chapter 9).
The statistics from this event are impressive:
· During the seven months from January
through July, more than an average year's
rainfall fell in the upper Mississippi River
drainage basin.
· Ten representative weather stations
recorded greater than normal precipitation for
the period, and eight received more than twice
their normal rainfall. In July, three stations
received more than four times that month's
normal precipitation.
· Streamwater discharges of a level that
occurs only once in ten year were recorded at
154 locations. Volumes of strearnwater than
normally occur onl y once i n a hundred
years were re corded at 45 locations. At 41
stations, new records for streamflow were set, to
the dismay of the new record holders.
What caused this calamity? Obviously, it was he
weather, but the specifics are important to know. The jet
stream, a west-to-east-flowing river of air that normally
flows at high altitude over Canada during the
summer months, stalled over Iowa and the Midwest. It
formed a barrier to moisture-laden air that was
moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico. That
air bumped into the jet stream over Iowa and
dumped its moisture almost without letup.
It rained for fifty out of fifty-five days in Iowa, and
rivers rose as high as 18.5 feet above their banks (Figure
7.26). Average rainfall in July is normally between
2.8 inches and 3.8 inches over the state, but, in 1993,
rainfall exceeded 10 inches, the highest July total in 121
years of state record-keeping. The Boyer River at
Logan in southwestern Iowa rose 15.7 feet in 24 hours
on July 9.
In Van Meter, just west of Des Moines, a
sandbag wall built by hundreds of volunteers
and National Guard troops was simply no match
for a river that was rising nearly one foot per hour
(see chapter opening photo). The floodwater
swept under the sandbags and pushed them asi de
on it s way east ward i nt o Des Moines. The
USGS estimated that a flood of this se-ver ity occurs
only once in every 500 years, on average. Damage
exceeded $1 billion in the city (Figure 7.27).
The viewpoint of many Iowans in the summer
of 1993 was well-expressed by Mark Twain in his
classic, Life on the Mississippi: "You can plan or
not plan and it doesn't make a hell of a lot of
difference. What makes a difference is how much
it decides to rain." Was he correct? Can large
floods be predicted? After all, we know a lot
more about these things now than when Twain
wrote those words in 1883.
Some floods can be predicted. Iowa's 1993
flooding was an example of a "slow-rise" flood.
Such flooding occurs where a drainage basin is
very large. Here, the rate and timing of downstream
flooding can be predicted days in advance from
upstream information because one can see it coming.
Flash Floods
In contrast, a flash flood occurs very rapidly in
a smal drainage basin. The flood comes roaring
from a canyon in a breaking wave of water often
10-15 feet high, churning together mud, rocks, and
debris, moving boulders and trees,. destroying
buildings in its path. Flash floods happen in
semiarid mountainous regions where precipitation
occurs as intense thunderstorms and stream
gradients are high.
The Rocky Mountain region of the western
United States is a classic example of such an area.
Because of the high velocity of the water, people
downstream may have less than an hour's warning
before the deluge hits. Consequently, there is
limited opportunity for an organized, informed
response, and emphasis turns toward saving lives,
rather than reducing property damage.
Based on the experience of many flash floods,
a relationship has been determined between the
number of hours of warning before a flash flood
and loss p re ve nt io n (i Fi gu re 7.28). No warni ng,
of course, results in the maximum casualties and
damage. If any warning is given, the reduction in
loss of life and property damage is significant.
However, the usefulness of a warning decreases
for times greater than 12-15 hours. Warning
times greater than one or two days are of no real
use. Further, the volume of water in a flash flood is
so great that most structures in the path of the flood
cannot be protected, regardless of warning time. As
the graph shows, it is essentially impossible to pro -
tect more than about one-third of them.
Case Study - Big Tho mps on Canyo n,
Colo rado, 1976. The best-studied recent
example of a devasting flash flood occurred in
Big Thompson Canyon, Col orado, on July 31 /
August 1, 1976. The flood and associated debris flows
claimed 139 lives and caused $50 million damage to
highways, roads, bridges, homes, and small
businesses (Figure 7.29).
The brunt of the storm occurred over the
Big Thompson River basin between Drake and Estes
Park. Rainfalls up to 12 inches were reported. At
Glen Comfort, 7.5 inches fell during 70 minutes.
Peak discharge at the canyon mouth near Drake was
31,200 cubic feet per second, more than four times
the highest previous discharge recorded in eighty-
eight years of flood records there. The flood crest
moved through the 7.7 mile stretch between Drake and
the Canyon mouth in about 30 minutes, an average
rate of 15 miles per hour, or 23 feet per second.
It is easy to understand why hundreds of
residents, campers, and tourists were caught with
little or no warni ng. C arbon- 14 dat i ng of
previ ous fl ood deposits in Big Thompson Canyon
indicate that a flood as large as the one in 1976 had
not occurred for at least 1000 years and perhaps not
for 7000 years or more.
Why Do Floods Occur?
Stream channels develop during times of
normal rainfall, so they are adjusted to normal
streamflow. They can contain higher flows, up to a
point. For example, in the humid northeastern
United States, studies reveal that stream banks
can contain the highest discharge that occurs
within a 28-month period, on average. Most
floods result when rainfalls are so great that tem -
porary storage in soil pores is insufficient to keep
the stream from rising above bank level.
Flooding is a normal, inevitable part of
any stream's life over the years. Whether or not
the flooding becomes an environmental problem
depends on how close the stream is to population
centers. It also depends on the elevation difference
between a population center and the top of the stream
bank.
Floods also can be caused by snow, ice, and
landslides. In regions of heavy snowfall, such as the
western United States, unusually high spring
temperatures can rapidly melt snow, causing
flooding. Snowmelt is produced faster than it can
be absorbed by saturated or frozen ground.
Flooding also is common in northern climates,
where river ice essentially dams the water,
forming a lake behind the ice. When the ice is
breached it collapses, releasing the water in a flood.
Floods from ice dams are common in mountainous
western Canada. In warmer climates, temporary
sediment dams formed by landslides replace ice
dams as a cause of floods. A classic example is the
1925 slide in the Gros Ventre Valley of Wyoming
and the subsequent flood in 1927 (see Chapter 5).
How Often Do Floods Occur?
Floods are natural and recurrent events. Over the
years, repeated floods build the floodplain of a river.
The function of a floodplain is to provide a pathway
for excess water—water that won't fit within the stream
channel Unfortunately, human societies all too often
ignore this floodplain function and colonize the
floodplain for its economic advantages: level ground
for construction, fertile soils for crops, ease of
access, and ready supply of water. Too often,
floodinc, is viewed like an earthquake it always
happens to someone else, somewhere else.
Living on a floodplain is a gamble like playing dire in
Las Vegas. The same rules of chance apply: the stakes
are high, but the long-run odds are against winning.
The stakes are high because you win only if your flood
losses are less than the value gained from living in
the flood plain. The long-run odds are poor
because floods are bound to occur. The biggest
losses in built-up areas come from catastrophic
floods like the 1993 Iowa disaster or the 1976 Big
Thompson Canyon flood. Floods of this magnitude are
rare, but even a small chance for such an
occurrence is a matter of concern. The more severe a
flood, the less its likelihood of occurrence.
Calculating Flood Frequency. How large a flood
can be expected, and how often? The data needed
to calculate a flood frequency curve are obtained
from stream-gauging stations where streamflow
data are continuously recorded. The data recorded
include stream discharge, from which hydrologists
calculate flood frequencies. The method for
calculating flood frequency of a stream or river is
simple and can be used by anyone who contacts
their state's geological survey to obtain the necessary
data:
1. Obtain the highest discharge for the
stream for each year for as long as records
have been kept. If there is more than one
gauging station on the stream, choose the
station with the longest record. The
more data points you have, the more
accurate will be your estimate of flood
frequency.
2. Rank the discharges in decreasing order,
from highest to lowest.
2. To determine how often you can expect each
magnitude of discharge to occur, apply this
formula:
Average number of years of records + 1
recurrence =
interval rank of discharge on list (3d highest,)
etc.)
For example:
Average 10 years of records + 1 11
recurrence =
5thflood
highest 5
= = 2.2 (one this discharge
size
every 2.2 years)
interval
Table 7.2 shows the recurrence interval of floods on the
Danger River based on ten years of data.
A graph can be constructed showing how
frequently any level of discharge is likely to occur. For
this example, we used data from Table 7.2 in the
equation above to generate the curve in Figure
7.30. There are only ten years of records. The highest
data point is at a recurrence interval of 11 years
(number of years of records + 1). Note that the
estimate of discharge at 11 years is difficult to
determine because the data point (1700 cubic feet
per second) is an extreme value, much higher than
and, therefore, far from the other data points on
the graph.
As noted earlier, stream banks are hi gh enough to
hold in the stream channel the highest discharge
that occurs within a 28-month period, or 2.33
years. In our Danger River example, this is a
discharge of 520 cubic feet per second. The
projected fifty-year flood dis charge of 2500
cubic feet per second is 4.8 times the river's normal
"full" discharge.
Det ermi ni n g t he highest discharge to
expect every 50 or 100 years is much more
problematic. It depends very heavily on the highest
discharge recorded during the ten-year period. For
example, if the highest discharge recorded was 20
percent higher than the 1700 cubic feet per second in
our example, the projected discharge of the fifty-
year flood would be 3800 cubic feet per second.
This dramatic change might mean the dif ference
between minor property damage with small loss
of life and a major economic and personal disaster
for a community.
Note that all values other than the
measured ten data points are expectations. Based on
the ten datapoints, we expect a discharge of 3500
cubic feet per second every 100 years—but, it
is quite possible that the highest discharge
between 1994 and 2094 will be only 3000 cubic
feet per second; or perhaps it will actually be 4000
cubic feet per second. The small number of
data points on which our extrapolat i on is based
ensures that there is a large degree of uncertainty
in our expectation.
In natural situations, we are always dealing in
probabilities, not certainties. We use real data
to make our estimates of future stream
behavior, but must not forget that our
estimates are only that stimates. The larger
our data set of past stream behavior, the better
we will be our estimate of future stream behavior.
Flood hazard (or discharge hazard)
estimates sometimes are expressed as flood
probabilities rather than as recurrence
intervals. One value is the reciprocal of the
other. (A reciprocal is 1 divided by the
number; for example, 1 /too is the reciprocal of
100.) A 100-year flood, for example, has a 1 /too
(or 1%) chance of occurring in any given year. A
50-year flood has a 1/5o (or 2%) chance. The
possibilit y of two 50-year floods occurring in
one year is small, only 1/50 X 1/50 = 1/2500, or 1
chance in 2500 (or 0.04%). But it can happen: in
Houston, three 100-year floods occurred in a
single year, 1979. The chance of that happening is
one in one million! The real world is never risk-free.
Table 7.3 summarizes flood probabilities. For
example, a flood with a ten-year return period
(column 6) has a ten percent chance of occurring in
any one yearcolumn 5), a 65 percent chance within
ten years (column 4), a 94 percent chance within
twenty-five years (column 3), and a 99.9 percent
chance of occurring within fifty years. A 100-year
flood has a 63 percent chance of happening within a
100-year period, but only a 1 percent chance in a
particular year.
A good analogy is a roulette wheel. The
number of black and red numbers is very close to
equal so that ten spins of the wheel should result i n
five black numbers and five red numbers.
Nevertheless, there will be numerous ten-spin
sequences in which the result will be six black and
four red, or seven red and three black. Occasionally,
the result may be nine and one, or rarely, ten and
zero. Flood probability estimates are similar. In fifty
spins of the calendar, there should occur only one
fifty-year flood, but it is possible for two or three
of them to occur in a single year. Worse yet, which
year it will be cannot be determined in advance.
Urbanization and Flooding
The relationship among rainfall, stream
discharge, and time is of great significance
when we think about floods. Time is more
important than many people realize. For example,
during a rainfall, one very important factor that
slow-, the rush of shcetflow runoff into a stream
channel is vegetation. First, the plant leaves shield
the soil from the full impact of raindrops, so that the
water is more likely to infiltrate than to erode
thesoil. Second, plant roots and soil pores can hold a
large amount of water—at least temporarily—
and thus reduce the maximum stream discharge.
This creates a lag between the time of rainfall
and the time of peak discharge. Put simply: if
the Ap p alachian Mountains suddenly were stripped
of all plants, residents would experience catastrophic
flash floods.
Thus, it is no surprise that urbanization—
paving over land, building construction, stripping
vegetation and soil—both increases the highest
discharge that 1ccal streams attain and decreases the
lag time between the rainfall event and flooding
(Figure 7.31). This increase clearly shows on a
hydrograph, a plot of stream discharge over time.
Two hydrographs appear in Figure 7.32.
The upper curve shows streamflow under pre-
urban conditions, where plenty of vegetation and
few impermeable surfaces exist. The lower curve
shows the greater stream discharge and briefer lag
time between rainfall and peak discharge that result
from urbanization.
Smaller floods are more affected by
urbanization tl•,an are larger, less frequent floods. A
50-year or 100- vear flood is hardly affected at all by
an increase in the amount of impermeable area
caused by urbanization, because such extreme
floods overwhelm the storage capacity of soil cover,
no matter how extensive.
Anticipating and Controlling Floods
Advance planning for floods or other
calamities can save both lives and property. But
planning costs money, and the more comprehensive
the plan, the higher the cost. How much are people
who live on a river's flood-plain willing to pay, and
for what degree of protection? Most communities
that engage in flood protection planning use as a
guide the 100 -clear floodway. This is the area along
the river (floodplain and the zone surroundin g it)
that is likely to be flooded once each 100 years.
As you have seen, the 100-year discharge can be
estimated. By using topograph i c maps (maps that
use contour lines to show the shape and elevation
of the land surface) it is easy to see the outline of the
area that would be under water during an
average 100-year flood. However, because of
increasing urbanization, both the 100-year stream
discharge and the contours of the land surface
around a stream may change over time, so the 100-
year floodway may change as well.
Figure 7.33 shows the San Lorenzo River flowing
through the town of Felton, California, south of
San Francisco. It shows the flood-prone zone
along the river. At normal streamflow, the water
surface is at an elevation of 240±5 feet, but
floodplain zoning now prevents most
construction below an elevation of 260-265
feet. Unfortunately, a large number of homes and
other structures already exist on the east side of the
river (center of map; note elevations). This is within the
designated danger zone. Felton's citizens probably are
unhappy about decreased property values and
higher home insurance premiums that have
resulted from the zoning ordinances.
Floodplain Zoning
For the reasons just described, floodplain zoning has not
received an enthusiastic response from local
governments. Lack of scientific personnel, lack of
money, local political pressure against unpopular
restrictions on development, and the higher cost of
floodproofing or of elevating structures on stilts
combine to make difficult the passage of zoning
ordinances. Real estate developers, in particular,
almost always are opposed to restricting the use
(residential, commercial, industrial) to which they
may put their property.
Should communities pass laws restricting the
use of private property? Would it be satisfactory
simply to inform prospective builders or buyers
of the danger, and allow them to do as they
wish? Should the government subsidize the
increased cost of insurance for those who build in
dangerous areas if the town favors the development
and no other location is suitable?
Flood Control
Several methods are used to control
floods, none of which is without drawbacks. They
include channelization, levees, and dams.
Channelization of Streams.
Channelization is the name for various methods
of improving the stream's channel to increase
stream discharge. The purpose is to help the stream
carry away water faster from a threatened area.
Channelization may increase discharge by
dredging to straighten, widen, or deepen the
channel. Within cities, stream channels often are lined
with cement to straighten them and keep hem
from meandering, as streams commonly do
(Figure 7.34). Unfortunately, such major
modifications in a natural stream course not only
are unsightly but have ripple effects both upstream
and downstream. Increasing the streamgradient at one
location causes it to increase upstream as well, which
accelerates erosion. Down-stream, the incidence of
flooding is greatly increased because of the
increased volume of water funneled there more
hastilyby the increase in stream velocity upstream. In
addition, any change in the natural characteristics
of a stream affects the ecosystem of which it is an
integral part, usually negatively.
Building Levees along Streams. A second
method of flood control is to build artificial levees
(also known as dikes), which are raised banks that
run along the top edge of the stream channel on each
side. Streams build natural levees (Figure 7.35A) when
they overflow their banks, because the water slows
and sediment is deposited. Natural levees usually are
low, capable of containing only the greatest
discharge that occurs during an average 28-month
period. They afford no protec tion against major
floods. By constructing higher levees along the
channel margins, the channel can hold more
water, reducin g the occurrence of floods (Figure
7.35B).
Artificial levee construction has been advocated by the
federal government for more than a century, but they
now are reassessing the practice. Over the years, the
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has built numerous
levees along the Mississippi that now total more
than 2500 miles in length. Some of these levees are 30
feet highThese levees have contained numerous
floods. But the great flood of 1993 breached (broke
through) some 8001evees, creating serious flooding on
land that long had been protected by them. Further,
fending off a flood upstream simply creates more severe
flooding downstream.
Calculations indicate that, had the
agricultural levees along the Mississippi been made
high enough to contain the 1993 floodwaters, the
river would have risen about 6 feet higher at St.
Louis, putting much of that city under water. Also,
the projected cost of elevating ihe levees would be
several billion dollars. So, although the 1993
floods in the midcontinent were a disaster for
towns and farms along the Mississippi River, the
Corps of Engineers does not expect to build levees
high enough to prevent similar floods. Instead,
they are recommending government buyouts of
property in flood-prone areas and improved
flood insurance for buildings and crops.
Building Dams across Rivers. Another widely
used flood-control method is a dam; 75,000 exist in the
United States. Hundreds of thousands more exist
throughout the world. If all the water stored in
dams were released to the ocean, sea level would
rise about 3 inches. These huge concrete or earthen
structures span a river and impound water that
continually pours in from upstream (Figure 7.36).
Some rivers need only a single dam, whereas
along others, two or three may be necessary to manage
the water volume. The Mississippi has twenty-eight
locks and dams, and forty-five major dams have
been built along its tributaries.
The pinnacle of dam construction in the
United States was reached with the completion in
1976 of a 34-dam complex along the Tennessee
River and its tributaries (Figure 7.37). At the time
they were built, the sole purpose of these dams was
the generation of hydro electric power for an
economica l ly depressed region. Since then,
however, the lakes created by these dams and the
water fesources they make available have led to
extensive reforestation, tourism, and development
of mineral resources. The dams were constructed by the
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA).
Dam Problems. Most dams built since the
TVA project have been multipurpose. They
generate electric power, irrigate crops, and
provide recreational activities such as swimming,
camping, fishing, and boating. Until about thirty
years ago, few questioned the good brought to an
area by a dam. Since then, problems have been
recognized, resulting in near-total abandonment of
dam building.
Among the worst problems are catastrophic
dam failures. During the last few decades, several
hundred thousand people worldwide have beer, killed
by dam failures. These resulted either from inadequate
geologic investigation or poor engineering during
construction. Recall the infamous Vaiont Dam
disaster in Italy, discussed in Chapter 5.)
A 1992 national dam survey classified
almost one-third of this country's 75,000 dams as
hazardous, 10,000 as having high hazard
potential, and another 13,500 as having significant
hazard potential.
Another problem associated with dams is
inundation of large amounts of property by the lake that
forms behind the dam. This drives out
homeowners and wildlife, displaces farms, kills
vegetation, and alters ecosystems. The dams also
create mud deposits in the reservoir, because the
entering stream stops and hence drops its sediment
load. In 1941, a USGS study reported that 39 percent
of existing reservoirs would be largely filled with
sediment before-2000. (Figure 7.38 shows an example
from France.) More recent data suggest that only
54 percent of American reservoirs will function for
more than a century, and 21 percent will be in use
less than fifty years. About one-third of the sediment in
the re se rv oi rs m a y co m e fr om er od ed cr op l a nd
(s ee Chapter 3).
Just how much sediment accumulates annually
in an "average" reservoir? Could we dredge the
sediment from the reservoir and transport it to a
useful place, like a construction site? What would this
cost?
Sediment yield from southeastern U.S.
drainage basins has been measured, in pounds per
square mile per year:
· 110,000 from forested areas (low erosion rates)
· 1,700,000 from rangeland
· 850,000-60,000,000 from construction sites,
where land is temporarily exposed in a highly
disturbed and erodible form.
Let us assume a conservative amount of sediment
entering a reservoir: only 1 million pounds per
square mile per year. Dry mud weighs about 150
pounds per cubic foot. Hence, the 1 million pounds of
sediment would occupy about 6700 cubic feet,
roughly the volume of a 30 x 30-foot bungalow.
Each year, the reservoir would accumulate 6700
cubic feet of mud from each square mile of
drainage basin. The cost of dredging the mud from a
reservoir is about 10 to 15 cents per cubic foot, so
the yearly cost of dredging would be at least $670
per square mile of drainage basin.
When this per-square mile cost is multiplied by
the 75,000 reservoirs in the nation, it appears
that annual dredging cost would be $50 million per
square mile of drainage basin. Drainage basins
typically encompass many hundreds or thousands
of square miles. So, the total dredging cost for
American reservoirs would be in the billions
annually! Further, our calculation does not include
the cost of transporting mud, which might equal the
cost of dredging, depending on distance. We
conclude that the cost of removing the mud from
the nation's reservoirs is prohibitive.
Below the dam, the water that is released after
passing through hydroelectric turbines in the dam is free
of sediment, all of which was trapped behind the
dam. As the water plunges down into the stream in
front of the dam, it picks up new sediment, and the
increased erosion may extend for many miles
downstream. The increased depth of the master stream
that results from the increased erosion has effects on
its tributaries as well. They also increase their
downcutting because the elevation at which they
join the master stream has been lowered.
Case Study: Egypt's Aswan Dam. Of even
greater importance in some areas downstream from
dam sites is the ecological damage and loss of nutrients
needed for agriculture. A good example of this effect
is the delta of the Nile River in Egypt. From before
recorded history, flooding of the delta region at the
mouth of the Nile was an annual event, important
because it replenished agricultural soils with fresh
sediment and water. But in 1968, the Aswan Dam
across the Nile was completed. Its purpose was to
generate hydroelectric power and control flooding, and
both objectives were accomplished.
Unfortunately, unforseen problems soon
became evident. After about thirty years, the
reservoir behind the dam still is not full, nor is it
expected to rise higher. The reasons are simple:
evaporation into the hot, dry desert air and
infiltration of the reservoir water into the permeable
sandstone on which the dam was built.
Evaporation is 50 percent greater than pre-construction
calculations indicated. And the mud settling in
the reservoir has not sealed the permeable
sandstone, as had been expected. The reduced
reservoir depth has reduced power generation
considerably.
But downstream effects of the dam are even worse.
Because of the loss of sediment that used to be an annual
deposit in the delta and an increasing number of
irrigation canals that trap sediment, the delta front
is being eroded by currents along the shoreline of
the Mediterranean Sea, reducing the land area
available for agriculture. Parts of the delta coastline
are receding at a rate of more than 300 feet per
year. In addition, the drifting desert sand that
encroaches on the fringes of the fertile corridor of the
Nile valley during the dry season was stabilized by the
river-borne mud deposited during the annual
flood. Now that the flood has been eliminated,
sand encroachment is much more difficult to
control because it overwhelms the irrigated lands at
the western edge of the Nile River valley. Further,
reduced Nile flow is now inadequate to wash away
the salts from the soil that are harmful to plant life.
Even worse, the floods that formerly deposited a
new layer of nutrient-rich mud have ended. Artificial
fertilizers now are needed, an expense not easily borne
in a poor country. And finally, the freshwater snails that
carry parasitic Bilharzia larvae have become much more
abundant in the Nile water used for irrigation,
caus ing a dramatic increase in the incidence of this
debilitating and often fatal intestinal disease. The
Aswan Dam and reservoir have proven to be much less
than the salvation event for the Egyptian people that was
prophesied in the 1960s.
Case Study: Valmeyer—A Town with
G o o d Sense. Humans seen, slow to recognize
that we are an integral part of the natural world,
not some special group apart from it. The natural
environment, such as a river system, contains
innninerable and often invisible interactions that
have deve l oped over billions of years to stabilize
Earth as a place fit for the life that inhabits it.
Despite our technological capabilities, we humans
are a numerically trivial group compared to ants,
termites, bacteria, and so on. However, we have
larger, versatile brains. We are fully capable of
"thinking" our way to extinction, despite our
good intentions. It is not possible to improve on Father
Nature.
One small group that has recognized the futility of
0
fighting catastrophes that happen repeatedly in
the same place is the people of Valmeyer, Illinois.
Valmeyer is on the Mississippi River's east bank
about 25 miles south of St. Louis. The river's
floodwaters inundated the town twice in the summer of
1993, and 900 citizens saw 90 percent of their homes,
offices, and public buildings destroyed (Figure 7.39). So
they voted to construct a new Valmeyer about two
miles east, away from and higher above the river.
The Illinois State Geological Survey was asked to
investigate and evaluate natural hazards at the proposed
new site of about 500 acres.
At a town meeting in December 1993, Valmeyer's
citizens voted to ask the federal government for
funds to defray the cost of the relocation and new
construction. Approval was granted in 1994 and 95
percent of Valmeyer's buildings and homes are being
rebuilt at the new site. Only 5 percent of the citizens
chose to remain at the old townsite. The federal
government is moving or rebuilding about 6600
structures damaged i n the floods. The estimated cost
of the move is $9.6 million, of which the federal
government (the nation's taxpayers) will pay $7.2
million. The remaining $2.4 million, divided among
900 residents, comes to less than $3000 per person. The
cost for a family of four is about $11,000.
As a condition of the grant, the town must adopt
drainage, sediment, and erosion controls; a storm-water
management plan; construction guidelines; and other
mitigation ordinances to protect against activating
the geologic hazards found by the scientists from the
Illinois State Geological Survey. The citizens of
Valmeyer believe it is in their best interest to
adapt to their surroundings rather than continue to
fight what is surely a losing battle.

Summary
Of every 100 water molecules on and near
Earth's surface, 97 are in the oceans. Most of the
remaining three lie frozen in glaciers. Although this
has been true for all of human history, it does not
mean that the water molecules do not change
location. They are always moving in the hydrologic
cycle among the oceans, atmosphere, soil, and
subsurface rocks. These movements are crucial for
human existence.
The size of streams varies with geographic
location, local topography, nature of the underlying
bedrock, stage of stream development, and the
amount of human intervention in the natural cycle.
All of these factors influence the possibility of
flooding. Although the probability of future floods
can be calculated, the estimate is based on past
occurrences and is a statistical average.
Human civilization always interferes with the
natural development of streams and their water-
carrying capacity. Urbanization, artificial
channeling, and dam construction alleviate human
problems in the short run (the term in office of
elected politicians) but are harmful in the long
run. And the long run commonly is not really that
long, only a few tens of years. It is advisable not to
live on a floodplain near an active river. As long as
people do such inadvisable things, human disasters
will continue to be more frequent than would
otherwise occur.