1 s2.0 S0376042102000490 Main

Progress in Aerospace Sciences 39 (2003) 1–60
Quest for a novel force: a possible revolution in aerospace

John E. Allen
School of Engineering, Kingston University, Roehampton Vale, London SW15 3DW, UK
Abstract
Conventional understanding of flight in aerospace depends primarily on the application of Newton’s laws in the
design of components providing propulsive and lifting forces. This reality has given incredible advances in capability
during nearly a century of endeavour. But this century of achievement was preceded by millennia of speculation,
literary fantasies, some tentative scientific proposals and brave practical attempts of how manned flight might be
attained. However, the coming of reality did not stop the aerial speculation which has continued over the last century
with various doubtful claims that have disguised an underlying seriousness seeking for alternative means of
accomplishing aeronautical ambitions. Recently, three professional programmes have emerged, directed to discovering
such new ways of propulsion, viz., the NASA Breakthrough Propulsion Physics programme, the BAE SYSTEMS
Project Greenglow and work at ESA. The author has followed these novel developments for over half a century and is
now a consultant to the BAE SYSTEMS programme.
BAE SYSTEMS monitors many evolving scientific and technical advances to seek competitive advantages
for its products and pays appropriate attention to the most promising solutions. Some of these are correctly
described as breakthroughs and in the speculative field of advanced propulsion it seeks advice on the truth or
falsehood of the many quantitative claims that have been published. The primary task is to design radically
new aeronautical systems based on new physical principles. This paper sets out this strategy which has the following
logic:
* to account for previous claims, patents and investigations and assess their validity,
* make scientific experiments of new phenomena and generate theories,
* propose radically new ways (engines) of providing aeronautical forces,
* assess whether any of these imaginary engines could improve aerospace performance,
* if so, how significant would the improvement be?
* it appears that one solution offers superb improvement, globally, for over a century ahead,
* hence, it is well worth the effort to realise this in practice,
* one of the proposed engines is in sequence with previous transport systems,
* the best way forward is serendipitous collaboration with advanced thinkers in physics, and
* Project Greenglow links new physics with novel engines and global transport performance by means of evolving
techniques used in novel ways
This process, described in this paper, is essentially ‘project-led research’ (sometimes called ‘focussed search’),
in which theoretical possibilities are subjected to the classical process of conjecture and refutation, also employed
in a previous paper published in this journal, viz., ‘Global issues affecting aeronautics’ (Prog. Aerosp. Sci. 1999;
35: 413).
There is an important distinction between the UK programme and others, i.e., the inclusion of aeronautics as well as
spaceflight, whereas the others deal exclusively with spaceflight.
r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
0376-0421/03/$ - see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 3 7 6 - 0 4 2 1 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 0 4 9 - 0
2 J.E. Allen / Progress in Aerospace Sciences 39 (2003) 1–60
Contents
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2. Report outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3. Part1—from the past . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3.1. Precursors to aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3.2. Aeronautical shortcomings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3.3. Micro- and macro-aeronautics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.3.1. Origins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.3.2. Logistic substitution and Fisher–Pry methods for long-term forecasting . . . . . 10
3.3.3. Global issues affecting aeronautics—the author’s reasoned conjecture [1] . . . . . 13
3.4. Many kinds of novelty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.5. Unsuccessful and doubtful speculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4. Part II—to the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.1. Steps towards a serious quest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.1.1. Project Greenglow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.1.2. The NASA BPP effort . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4.1.3. The ESA programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4.2. Project Greenglow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.2.1. Experimental and theoretical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.2.2. The morphological study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.2.3. The what-if study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2.4. The new aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
4.2.5. Global implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.2.6. The crucial advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.2.7. Novel physics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
5. Critique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
1. Introduction The field of enquiry of this journal is aerospace

sciences where science is taken to include pure and
A major contribution to civilisation in the last 175 applied kinds. With a century of manned flight already
years has been the evolution of mechanical transport. accomplished, the domain of the journal is well defined.
First came steam-driven railways, then steamships, the Some limitations of flight are recognised and there are
motor car, aeroplanes and spaceflight. The process in many fruitful steps towards new applications of
each case was a discovery, followed by an invention and technology likely to extend the field of aerospace for
its conversion to practical reality by careful engineering yet another century.
design. These steps are looked upon as breakthroughs However, a major breakthrough may not necessarily
where new knowledge appears akin to magic by those arise within the established principles of flight, viz., lift
familiar only with the previous stage. In this article I created by aerodynamic means and, separately, propul-
shall explore the possibility that there may yet be sion by aerodynamic reaction from propeller or jet.
another means of mechanical transport; what it might
be, how it might come about and whether the historical (footnote continued)
process will be repeated.1 engineering realities—we do not yet know exactly what such a
system could be—so it would be misleading to use any such
1
There is an immediate problem—how to name the new term. The title I have used, ‘a novel force’ is neutral but would
process? Terms frequently used include anti-gravity, electro- also be appropriate if force, used conventionally would be
gravitics, inertia drive, field propulsion, etc. These are not moderated by, e.g., inertia modification.
J.E. Allen / Progress in Aerospace Sciences 39 (2003) 1–60 3
Accordingly, this quest seeks a revolutionary way of The work conveniently divides into two parts, Part 1
providing aeronautically appropriate forces within a with the past and Part 2 takes us to the future.
vehicle capable of transporting passengers and freight
and incidentally providing other services not attainable
by conventional means.
I should firstly explain my point of view. I have been 3. Part 1—from the past
involved with the preliminary design of many advanced
projects which included Blue Danube (transonic atom 3.1. Precursors to aerospace
bomb), Blue Steel (supersonic guided propelled missile),
the early steps towards the Space Shuttle, advanced The historical progress from idea to reality is long and
fighters and trainers at Hawker Siddeley [2] and tortuous, more so if the step is a major breakthrough. It
hundreds of projects, research proposals and assess- is highly unlikely that such a procession of events will
ments [3]. I am familiar with bringing novelties into suddenly stop, hence there is a pervasive challenge to
successful aerospace hardware and am well aware of the seek others. There is a distinct historic pattern in the
qualities required to make a successful product [4]. My evolution of a great innovation, starting centuries before
primary interest is to find radically better ways of flight the realisation. During this period different actors play
in aerospace, in all its applications, and seeking out the their part, Fig. 1. To put the quest for novel propulsion
novel research and development routes to achieve this. in context, the origins of aeronautics will be briefly
revisited from the end of the 18th century.
What would now be called science fiction, mostly in
the form of novels and plays in the London theatres in
2. Report outline the 17th and 18th centuries, had imagined flights to the
Moon and planets by means of what might be called
The ideas embodied in this paper will seem very ‘pre-Victorian warp drives’. Cyrano de Bergerac was
foreign to those engaged in aerospace. Professionals illustrated in 1656 employing vials of dew, which when
applying recognised and familiar methods will instinc- heated by the sun, provided an upward force to take him
tively reject speculation and have little time perhaps for skywards, Fig. 2 [8]. A visitor from Mercury in the first
imaginative writing. Yet it is accepted that, prior to any electric flying machine was depicted in 1775 in Fig. 3 [9].
real engineering innovation, there is often a series of The 1781 novel by Restif de la Bretonne is a lovely
half-baked concepts [5]. Section 3.1 is a brief historic story of a rustic youth who falls in love with an
review of the pre-reality stage of aeronautics. The next aristocratic lady. Her parents frustrate his intentions
section makes a critical review of present-day aerospace, which he circumvents by developing flying wings and
identifying ‘intolerable shortcomings’ [6]. Without a after several serious accidents in development, swoops
recognition that there is substantial room for improve- down and carries her away [10]. Perhaps, most surpris-
ment, there seems little incentive to seek for any novelty. ing of all is a picture of an aerial fight between a Briton
Section 3.3 introduces the concept of ‘micro- and macro- and German, Fig. 4 [11] from 1679. The Briton looks
aeronautics’ [7] which has proved helpful in addressing more elegant than the Teuton but his technology is
longer-term issues of this type [1]. Aeronautics is inferior!
familiar with breakthroughs, Section 3.4 reviews some The common characteristic of these imaginings is the
major examples and places them in context. The description of a physical means of providing an upward
surprising mass of conflicting ideas and doubtful or force but in every case the magnitude is too trivial to
even spurious claims for novel propulsion proposed in have any hope of success. This feature of science fiction,
the 20th century is analysed in Section 3.5. In passing, and much of the purported scientific research, still
these are also seen as social phenomena that challenge persists even today.
our understanding of the origin of such ideas and the Lighter-than-air, the first practical process for
nature of the human drive that leads to the publication manned flight, became a reality in the 18th century but
of such material. Having dealt with this distraction, was virtually a dead-end for mass travel, but Sir George
Section 4.1 moves more positively to consider ‘steps Cayley was designing gliders (1799) and inventing
towards a serious quest, which describes the NASA engines for flight in the early 1820s [12]. He realised
programme—‘breakthrough in propulsion physics’ the importance of lightweight engines and experimented
(BPP), the ESA work and the origins of Project with steam, petrol and even gunpowder. Cayley’s
Greenglow. Section 4.2 is the major part of the paper gunpowder motor is shown in Fig. 5 [13]. He made
giving a detailed account of the BAE SYSTEMS model gliders and eventually a full-scale version and
‘Project Greenglow’, its methods and output. The allegedly flew his coachman across a valley in his home
following section assesses this critically and suggests estate at Brompton in Yorkshire in 1852 Fig. 6 [14]. His
some directions for further research. research was extensive and he derived, for example,
Fig. 1. Evolution of aerial transport.
a streamlined shape (body or aerofoil) from observation The similarity in the historic steps between aviation
of fishes [15]. and astronautics is obvious but is there another progress
Sir George Cayley has rightly been called the Father at work, Fig. 7. All the major precursors—Newton,
of Aeronautics as he laid down the fundamental chemistry, mobile power sources, etc.—seem to advance
engineering concepts that employed Newtonian physics by about 55 years. This also happens to be the
[13–15]. It took nearly a century of intensive endeavour Kondratief interval defined by Nikolai Kondratief in
[16] to get from Cayley’s glider sketch to the Wright 1924 as part of his analysis of the decline in the capitalist
brothers first demonstration of controlled manned flight. system [25] which he later revised as a cyclic phenom-
The Wright’s had received their inspiration from many enon. There is an even more surprising pattern related
sources [17,18] and particularly the Third International to the Kondratief cycle of roughly 55 years, Fig. 8.
Aeronautical Congress of 1893 in Chicago [19] where the This shows the growth of transport infrastructures
Australian, Lawrence Hargrave flew his box kites. As in in the USA over a period of two centuries. We are
so many other instances of invention, the Wrights were tempted to ask whether this powerful trend will
originally strictly non-aeronautical; they were bicycle continue?
makers. For the real breakthrough you need to go to the Could the quest for a novel means of aeronautical
gifted amateur, or at least someone outside the propulsion be set in a similar time sequence? There
expected domain of expertise [20]. In aeronautics there are some key events—H.G. Wells’ Cavorite, probably
were far more accurate visions from poets [21,22] than the first idea of anti-gravity, Dr. A.P. Thurston’s 1919
scientists, who were able to prove that flying was paper for the UK government about developments in
impossible [23]. aeronautics which defines the possibility of ‘‘auto-
As Sir George Cayley was the father of aeronautics, so gravity’’ [26]. But as early as the 1840s Faraday
spaceflight had its theoretical pioneer—Ziolkowsky—in was mystified by the force of gravity and performed
Russia, circa 1903 [24]. Concurrently there were also experiments in London trying to unravel its
science-fiction stories, which usually drown out the nature [27]. These were unsuccessful, but what was
essentials, but the reality came with Sputnik in 1957. he looking for? The pre-history of enquiries into the
Fig. 1 brings together the historic sequences for aero- possibility of a novel force is dealt within Sections
nautics and spaceflight. 3.5, 4, 4–4.2.
Fig. 2. Cyrano de Bergerac’s flight.
3.2. Aeronautical shortcomings are being taken to progress aerospace through these
difficulties as indicated briefly below.
The innovator seeks changes which are seen to have Circumventing the use of fossil fuel in large quantities
important advantages. So what is the incentive to find the burning of which is thought to contribute to global
means to supercede classical, aerospace techniques? warming. The first problem is oil substitution which is
Inherent in the fundamental methods of current aero- dealt with in Section 3.3.3. No foreseeable improvement
nautics are some distinct limitations [6]: in propulsive efficiency could stave off growth in carbon
dioxide dumping arising from traffic growth [28].
(a) the use of fossil fuel in large quantities contributing
Optimistic environmentalists point hopefully to the
to global warming,
replacement of oil-derived fuels by liquid hydrogen.
(b) noise created aerodynamically,
This is a false hope and is unlikely to happen in
(c) large landspace for CTOL airports,
significant quantities before 2080 and be too late to
(d) technical limitations to high-speed flight required
reduce global warming. Since the beginnings of mechan-
by the growth of productivity,
ical transport (circa 1780) all have depended on heat
(e) intolerably long flight times to the Moon and
engines (with only minor exceptions). The birds do not
Mars,
depend on heat engines. Why should we?
(f) escalating costs of military systems, and
Noise created aerodynamically: Noise created aero-
(g) slender profit margins in civil aviation operations.
dynamically is inherent in conventional aeronautics and
This does not mean that aerospace is finished! There has yielded well to focussed research over many decades.
are many research avenues and practical measures that Jet noise is the major threat and is incidentally one of the
Fig. 3. Mercury visitor in an electric craft.
items hampering the development of the next-generation idea goes back to Dr. Eugen S.anger in 1930 of an
supersonic transports (SST) which is now being ad- antipodal rocket-propelled winged aircraft. Given to-
dressed in much current research. Remove the jet noise day’s technology, it should be conceivable to design such
and there remains the noise of vortices and flaps which is a craft, as Ashford has shown in [30]. The residual
probably tolerable. Any revolutionary new propulsive problems would be: intolerable noise near the airport,
means, probably providing enough thrust for a new heat soak, and too few craft to make the production
SST, would have to ensure the absence of the sonic economic. However, recent attempts to design hyperso-
boom which may require special flight trajectories. nic cruising transports fail to recognise that, to achieve
Large landspace for CTOL airports: Large landspace Mach 6, 7 or 8 in the cruise, requires at least two power
for CTOL airports is a growing concern as witnessed by plants, viz., turbofan, ramjet and possibly scramjet.
increased public resistance near congested cities. Already (Using Alan Bond’s HOTOL2 engine improves the
offshore airports are in use or under construction and situation as it breathes air up to Mach 5, using a
floating runways are available. Occasionally a voice is scramjet thereafter.) In every mode of flight there is a
heard advocating the return of the seaplane [29], which dead engine occupying space and mass which eat into
seems unlikely, at least for busy inter-hub routes. already slender revenue margins. I am not surprised that
Technical limitations to high-speed flight: Many have with conventional ideas this class of project has not yet
expected the historic growth of global civil air traffic to
be met by hypersonic designs. One may cite the US 2
HOTOL=Horizontal Take-Off and Landing—a BAe/
National AeroSpace Plane, and papers by IIASA. The Rolls-Royce single stage to orbit project of the 1980s.
Fig. 4. Aerial battle between a Briton and a German.
Fig. 5. Cayley’s gunpowder engine.
materialised. I am convinced that hypersonic transport Intolerably long duration of flights to the Moon and
needs a revolutionary, quiet propulsion system, and as Mars: The growing enthusiasm for long stay trips to the
+
recognised by Kuchemann [31], hypersonic speed is Moon and Mars seem to have overlooked the serious
compatible with global air travel. human problems that have already been experienced but
Fig. 6. Cayley’s 1852 glider.
which have been generally suppressed [32]. Here again imagine how a novel propulsive system could ameliorate
I would expect a revolutionary system to confer untold this perennial problem—but it is there to be solved!
advantages so far ignored. Slender profit margins in civil aviation operations:
Escalating costs of military systems: Data from the Aeronautics has been driven since its origin to achieve
USA, UK and Sweden show convincingly that unit costs very high efficiencies of L/D and sfc and we are
of top military aircraft have escalated at about 8% per dependent on the unalterable qualities of the low-
annum since 1920. The results of this are now well viscosity air and high-energy density of kerosine for
known—collaborative programmes, stretching pro- this state of affairs. In recent times the already slender
grammes to spread annual budgets, reduction in profit margins have been severely eroded by extra
production quantities after launch, and attempts to security costs, litigations for accidents and precautions
make UCAV fill the operational roles. Even UCAV to reduce health hazards. Of course, whether or not a
costs are increasing at a worrying rate. It is difficult to new system would improve this ongoing situation is not
Fig. 7. Steps towards spaceflight.
yet clear, but the challenge is an important one and if new perspectives emerged from the preparations for this
successful could be a very powerful incentive for event. The first was a recognition that there were three
developing it. distinct stages of aerospace: (i) early speculation and
Whether an investigation directed towards a new experiment, (ii) an essentially contained process in which
means begins as an attempt directly to overcome these aeronautics proceeded without too much interference
problems or whether a novel scheme needs a value with global affairs and lastly, and (iii) a period when
assessment, it is suggested that the above should be used aerospace interacted strongly with the rest of the world.
as criteria to judge the worth of any particular novelty Within any such epoch objectives, methods and progress
and hence whether it should be pursued any further. would be developed. In later epochs previous attitudes
would be inadequate and new methods would be
3.3. Micro- and macro-aeronautics required. It was helpful to introduce the concept of
‘micro- and macro-aeronautics’ Fig. 9. The distinction
This concept, distinguishing short-term from long- was not related to importance but merely to the scale of
term methods, is described together with some of the breadth and duration of any particular activity.
less familiar macro-techniques Section 3.3.2 which are An event within the domain of micro-aeronautics
employed in later sections. An example of their could be a project, research programme, company,
application—‘global issues affecting aeronautics’, al- government department or even an individual aeronau-
ready published by this journal [1], is summarised in tical person. Over time, a micro-aeronautical domain
Section 3.3.3. could grow and decay but at any instant of time would
have specific relationships with other micro-aeronautical
3.3.1. Origins domains. These could interact with each other.
In 1974 the Royal Aeronautical Society held a Then, considering aeronautics as a whole process
landmark conference ‘aviation and global resources’ within global civilisation, the macro-aeronautic domain
with a keynote ‘aeronautics in a finite world’ [7]. Some will interact with global affairs such as energy, pollution,
Fig. 8. Transport infrastructures in the USA.
integrated transport policy, priorities for land use, etc. to anticipate the future and are bound to have
In order to clarify the essentially complex characteristics weaknesses. But they are infinitely to be preferred, for
of this novel idea, a three-dimensional model based on serious professional work, to sound bites which latch on
the dodecahedron was conceived as an interdisciplinary to one issue and construct a debating point around it.
management tool [33]. This is shown in Fig. 10. It was Several different methods have been adopted over many
entitled the ‘relevance dodecahedron’, since relevant decades to anticipate future events by ‘modelling’ of one
topics were printed either on one of the 12 faces or on kind or another [34]. Any war game [35], scenario or
the 60 edges. Topics on the faces were of major mathematical model is inevitably restricted in order to
importance and those on the edges of minor importance limit impossible complexity. Experience shows that,
yet being related to the descriptor on its face. The all too often, the parameters outside the study, and
strength of this device was that the inherently very hence overlooked, are often as important as those
complex relationships could be ‘untangled’, placed in within it [36].
hierarchical relationships so that all 72 topics could then
be dealt with in manageable steps. This device was first 3.3.2. Logistic substitution and Fisher–Pry methods for
produced in April 1974, has been used on 15 subsequent long-term forecasting
topics and was patented in 1976. These are two of the most powerful forecasting and
In order to appreciate the long-term perspective one backcasting methods available in the macro-domain.
has to ‘zoom out’ from the present so that the macro- They have been applied to the dynamics of invention
scene appears as in Fig. 9. From such a position both the and innovation and particularly to energy [37] and
historical view and the distant future can be seen. The transport [38]. An IIASA3 paper of 1972 gave the first
historical perspective sees issues and influences that were hint of a method of quantifying transport dynamics that
not understood at the time and the future is conveniently had a hope of future projection [39]. Considering energy
dealt with by creating scenarios of possible outcomes.
I use the term ‘scenario’ as a kind of ‘fuzzy’ mathematical 3
IIASA—The International Institute for Applied Systems
model. Of course, scenarios are only artificial attempts Analysis at Laxenburg in Austria.
Fig. 9. Micro- and macro-aeronautics.
first—total global energy use over 150 years has an

average annual growth of 2.3%, Fig. 11. This exponen-
tial trend arises from population growth and also
increasing exploitation of energy for industrial, trans-
port, commercial and domestic use. At this rate world
energy use increases three times in 50 years and 9 times
in a century. The oscillation around the mean line has
been attributed to the Kondratiev cycle of 55 years
which is deeply embedded in many world trends.
The other fundamental feature of world energy
dynamics arises from the introduction of new energy
modes, i.e., from wood to coal, then oil, followed by
natural gas and nuclear power. There have been three
grand transitions in energy [40], (a) coal-steam, re-
placing natural, human and animate energy (leading to
the industrial revolution), (b) electricity as an energy
carrier, and (c) crude oil liquid fuels and the internal
combustion engine. In the future, following this trend,
there will be new renewable sources, fusion (or some new
category of nuclear fission) and solar energy.
It has been a major feature of IIASA’s work to
measure these transitions and develop predictor meth-
ods for forecasting. It was quite unexpected that large- Fig. 10. The relevance dodecahedron, 1974.
scale human affairs could be precisely modelled or that
social phenomena could be mapped [41,42]. the familiar S-curve. In a sense all human activities can
Many natural processes, e.g., the growth of a plant or be seen as learning processes. In global energy dynamics
the rate at which a child learns a language, proceed in there is a slow growth phase, followed by a diffusion
Fig. 11. Global energy use since 1850.
Fig. 12. Evolution of global energy modes.
process as the market opens up world-wide and finally, logarithmic transform first used by Pry and Fisher of
saturation. This occurs when the niche occupied by the GE in 1970 [49]. This surprisingly linearises the S-curve
mode is full and cannot develop further because another so that its embedding in time can be more accurately
player has entered, bringing fuel with more favourable measured and analysed. A typical result will introduce
characteristics to attract new customers. the logistic substitution process of the various modes in
Such S-curves can be modelled in many ways, e.g., the the global energy mix, Fig. 12. The logistic curves fit the
Compertz curve in population, plant and animal growth data well, especially considering the long time scale and
in 1959 [14]. However, the more generally successful is the great changes of society, e.g., the two great wars and
the logistic function first employed by Verhulst of the Russian revolution. An incidental advantage of this
Belgium in 1838, 1845 [43] and 1847 for modelling approach is that energy price does not enter into the
biological populations, and later rediscovered by Pearl data!
[44,45] in the 1920s. It was further developed by Haldane There are three cases: a single process, e.g., Fig. 13 the
[46], Volterra [47] and Lotka [48]. The process is now improvement in the efficiency of engines, two processes
known as the Volterra–Lotka method. The diffusion in competition and when there are more than two
process is epidemic and the graph of the growth rate is competitors. The first two conform to the Volterra–
bell-shaped. The integral of this rate is the logistic, S- Lotka relationship, the last requires more complex
shaped curve, which can be better presented in a analysis [1]. The world energy mix typically has more
Fig. 13. Efficiency of engines: Fisher–Pry transform.
Fig. 14. Annual growth rates.
than one competitor. The growth phase is logistic, then These powerful logistic methods and the thousands
there is a stagnation phase needing non-logistic treat- of cases to which they have been applied successfully
ment and the final decline stage is again logistic. There is paint a very convincing picture of the macro-scene but
strong competition between recent energy forms and the they do not predict the arrival of a new technology.
established ones but those in decline do not react However, it is very unwise to make decisions which
noticeably with the newer entrants. clearly violate their general conclusions. This knowledge
The technique of logistic substitution as a subset of is employed particularly in the case of transport in
Volterra–Lotka equations of competition is very power- Sections 4.2.4–4.2.6.
ful and has been successfully applied to many thousands
of cases [50–53]. The range of applications contained in 3.3.3. Global issues affecting aeronautics—the author’s
these references is remarkable: car populations, the reasoned conjecture [1]
growth of Gothic cathedral building, the commence- As stated, mankind’s use of energy, over the last 250
ment dates of city underground systems, persecutions years, has increased by an average of about 2.3% per
for witchcraft in Europe, the number of victims killed by annum. This amounts to a growth of roughly 3 times in
the Red Brigades in Italy, the occurrence of patents of 50 years or 9 times in a century. Fig. 14 sets out the
optical fibre technology and the patterns of innovation ranges of interest. By far the lion’s share of the
waves over the last century and a half. It is surprising consumption of crude oil is that devoted to road and
that this wealth of evidence is not more generally known air transport, typically more than 50%. Whereas fixed,
or used. land-based installations may transfer to other means of
providing electric power (nuclear, wind, wave or solar)

this is very difficult indeed for aeronautics. Furthermore,
the motor car is stubbornly refusing to substitute non-
fossil electric power for oil products.
So the heart of this scenario [1] was to estimate the
annual consumption of all air and road transport for the
year 1990 and then project forward with variable annual
increases. Allowances were made for increasing thermal
efficiency of vehicles and aircraft, both military and civil
aviation together with the changing lifestyles of road
users. This was evaluated for 5-year intervals up to 2050
AD and compared with published values of expected oil
annual production rates taking into account new oil
finds and improving technology. General conclusions
were updated in 2000. Fig. 15 shows air transport energy
to 2050, Fig. 16 is road and air total energy. There is
strong evidence that natural gas output will increase
significantly during the 21st century; major oil compa-
nies are already transforming gas into synthetic kero-
sine. The most robust solution to continuing aviation
fuel supplies would be to use synthetic kerosine derived
from natural gas, probably enough until 2080. There is a
concern that the events of 11th September may under-
mine the assumed growth data. However, although there
was a marked downturn in air traffic (showing a similar
trend at the start of the Gulf War) the global resilience
exampled by Fig. 8 seems to be the predominant factor. Fig. 15. Air transport: energy and CO2, 1990 and 2050.
Many Fisher–Pry long-term trend analyses report only
minor disturbances arising from both world wars of the
20th century.
But what happens after 2080? One possibility is the
harnessing of clathrates (frozen methane beneath the
ocean floor) whose abundance is prodigious but whose
recovery is hitherto problematical. Beyond that lies the
prospect for using liquid hydrogen, but here, although
the performance is acceptable, the logistics are decidedly
questionable. We cannot rest on a long-term hope that
hydrogen will solve all aviation problems in the longer
term.
This study [1] has since been extended out to 2100
[54]. These estimates include the size of fleets of different
categories, allowances for improvement in thermal
efficiency, oil substitution and demographic changes.
They are obviously of zeroth order of accuracy but can
form a yardstick against which novel technologies could
be judged [55]. This is presented in Section 4.2.4.
3.4. Many kinds of novelty
Creating new artefacts, ideas or artwork has bred

many terms which have not been used consistently over Fig. 16. Road and air transport 2050 energy deficit.
the centuries. I tend to use three—‘discovery’ (science),
‘invention’(ideas) and ‘design’ for the specific act of
achieving the reality of the novelty [56]. But Isaac pattern of inventions, used ‘invention’ specifically to
Newton applied the word ‘invention’ to his scientific define the origin of an idea (patent) which leads on to
discoveries. Mensch, in his classic paper [57] on the the ‘innovation’ when an industrial activity has been
In considering the work envisaged within Project

Greenglow the cultivation of the right attitudes,
cooperative work between those in different domains
and a very fresh approach are vital. The broad objective
is clear but the attainment is difficult. Further con-
sideration to these important matters is given in Sections
4.2 and 5.
Attention must be drawn to one fundamentally
different approach to achieving novelty which has been
adopted in Project Greenglow—what I have called
‘project-directed research’ or ‘project-led research’.
Although previous examples to be quoted occurred
within known physics—it has significant consequences if
recognised and managed accordingly. I encountered this
(as an onlooker) during the development of the Hawker
Siddeley Harrier V/STOL military aircraft. The idea of
propulsive lift was seen in the 1940s as a likely
breakthrough as a consequence of the invention of the
jet engine. Considerable research and flight demonstra-
tor efforts were made on 28 prototypes, world-wide, but
it proved to be a far more difficult design task than had
been expected. One false start began with the exploita-
tion of the technology of the V-2 rocket which was a
complete blind alley [58]. There were two critical
aerodynamic features of the Harrier which needed
special attention during the preliminary design phase.
First was the air intake. Its predecessor, the Hunter, a
Fig. 17. List of aerospace breakthroughs. CTOL-type, had a thrust-weight ratio of about 0.3. The
figure for the Harrier was 1.2; hence, the cross-sectional
area was huge in comparison with previous experience.
formed. There is still no universally accepted distinction Correspondingly, the accepted wisdom based on ex-
between these phases . A modern term is ‘breakthrough’ tensive theoretical, experiment and flight trials of non-
which perhaps best describes the quest of this paper. V/STOL aircraft required an intake far too long to be
Aerospace is familiar with breakthroughs as shown in accepted by the designers: it was far too heavy and
Fig. 17 which spans over two centuries. Why should they would have destroyed the vital condition of aligning the
stop now, and what is in store for the future? Other centres of mass, lift and vertical thrust essential to
perspectives as in Figs 18 and 19 list the large number of V/STOL success. So the project redirected the research
novel techniques that have been introduced into aero- objective: make an intake one-quarter the length
space since the 1940s. Insofar as there are methods for considered essential and make it equally efficient! The
conducting research, it is tempting to ask whether full account is in [59,60], suffice to say it succeeded after
breakthroughs can be ‘managed’?, or whether their 2 year’s work.
chances of success can be improved? I consider that the Second was the wing. With a heavier engine produ-
428-page, 1962 book, ‘The Sources of Invention’ by cing a thrust-weight ratio of 1.2 the wing was reduced in
Jewkes, Sawers and Stillerman [20] gives the most area to save weight, the deficit in lift being met by
thorough analysis of the many sources and how they deflected engine thrust. But the Harrier was a fighter and
arise, whether from individuals or organisations. The had to produce normal manoeuvring lift from the wing
amateur (in the widest sense) receives due recognition: alone transonically to survive in air combat. Here again
notably the Wrights as bicycle makers, Einstein as a a 2-year research programme was instituted to enhance
patents clerk, colour photography by Godowsky and lift in high angle of attack flight in the region of Mach
Mannes as student musicians, Whittle as aircraft pilot. 0.8 [59].
Statistics of the proportions of company budgets The What-if study, described in Section 4.2, is an
devoted to research, and corporate success in gaining excellent example of project-directed research. The
patents, point strongly to the importance of attitude and ‘project’ is a radically new aeronautical propulsive
‘culture’. In the final analysis, this is instinctive and means to be defined in engineering terms of size, mass
often the work of a single leader—in the company at the and energy/force density. The global consequences of
right time. the availability of such a device are then evaluated and
Fig. 18. A century of new aerospace technologies.
shown to be superb. Hence, the project objective sets method can overcome this difficulty. Is the process that
targets well beyond existing experience or knowledge. we seek likely to follow from the continuation of the
Granted that the level of novelty is far higher, i.e., a historic process of conception, invention and design ? Or
breakthrough in fundamental physics, but without such could it be that we have to ‘backtrack’, perhaps to
targets how can the relevance of the many novel Maxwell theories, and set off in a different direction?
proposals be assessed? But there are hints of other potential large aero-
This process is completely different from all previous nautical steps such as, micro-machines [61], anti-
‘contributions to a novel force’ which typically produce adhesives [62], aircraft powered by fuel cells [63] and
a pseudo-scientific word describing an inadequately even self-healing materials [64]. These are not considered
proven physical process and then make extravagant in this paper.
claims for applications in aerospace vehicles. By starting
with realistic engine definitions, designing proper vehicle 3.5. Unsuccessful and doubtful speculation
designs around them, by employing classic aeronautical
engineering methods, then challenges the physicist to Until a breakthrough has been achieved, the scene is
seek for forces of the correct magnitude for practical confused and uncertain. There are sometimes strong
use. This method has not been employed in this indications of a coming breakthrough, e.g., before the
connection before. flight of Sputnik, when it was clear that, with ICBM
Often the difficulty in moving towards a breakthrough technology and experience, an object could be placed
is that there are no direction signs and hopefully this into a low-Earth orbit. In 1890 there must have been
Fig. 19. Aeronautical contests.
high hopes for manned flight but little certainty. But in fail before success is achieved. As already stated,
the domain of a possible novel force, there is a the BAe Harrier, the first successful V/STOL
proliferation of searches for an understanding of aircraft, followed 28 failed attempts in many countries.
gravitation [65], quests for new kinds of energy or force Those in pharmaceutical laboratories seeking new
[66], experiments alleging anti-gravity effects [67] and cure drugs typically will review 20,000 potential
scientific interpretations of unidentified flying objects molecules for every one that reaches the shelves of
(UFOs) phenomena [68]. The subject is bedevilled by chemists. Hence, it is certain that in the search for such a
rumour, abstruse mathematical physics and by uncritical radical concept as a new means of aircraft propulsion
press coverage. If any novel force concept had been there are likely to be thousands of failures. The positive
realised, it would surely have been already incorporated approach seeks to interpret the underlying ideas and
into hardware and exploited commercially. Alterna- seeks patterns which may point towards true scientific
tively, if such a breakthrough has been achieved, it may understanding.
be still secret until fully developed to operational status. Space fiction, which is characterised by Star Trek and
It is tempting to ignore all this material but an attempt Starship Enterprise, is purely imaginary. Novel engines
is made here to understand the situation better and build such as warp drive confer incredible speeds—faster than
on some hopeful parts of it. A method is developed in light—and highly complex man-rated systems perform
Section 4.2.2 to do just this, here the nature of the with total reliability on long duration missions. Yet,
evidence will be summarised. There is ample experience warp drive is recognised scientifically as in references
that the more extreme the novelty the more attempts will [69,70]. With modern techniques of computer graphics
and virtual reality compelling scenes tend to confirm

the exploits to the uncritical. But this is science fiction
pure and simple and as entertainment it is deservedly
popular.
A more sinister phenomenon is fantasy parading as if
it were true science or engineering. In 1995 I reluctantly
accepted an invitation to lecture on Flying Saucers [71]
which are sometimes referred to as UFOs. I reviewed the
long history of mysterious objects seen in the sky since
biblical times. I also assessed whether the flying saucer
shape [72,73] had any aerodynamic virtues in relation to
some of the bizarre flight trajectories alleged. I could
find none. Incidentally, I have myself witnessed eight
potential UFO events each of which eventually yielded
to a natural explanation. A vast literature of this type
exists and further discussion and analysis are not
necessary.
Ex-NASA scientist Paul R. Hill (originator of the
NASA man-driven hover platform) has taken a most
unusual approach to UFO phenomena in his book
‘unconventional flying objects’ [68]. He reports
Fig. 20. Anti-gravity terms, 1995.
several classical sightings and quotes the observer’s
description. He then takes these at face value and
interprets them in physical terms. His investigation
explores energetic particle ejection for propulsion, So we are left with a confusing array of unsub-
force field propulsion, the temperature of UFO radia- stantiated claims: some of the various terms, inven-
tion, high acceleration loading on occupants, and tions and theories encountered in [71] are set out in
silent subsonic and supersonic operations. Creative Fig. 20.
suggestions are made for novel physics such as direct The following is a brief summary of some key topics
field suspension, on-board power systems, gravity relevant to this section indicating the general level of
energy, proton fusion and quark seeding. A detailed unproven claims.
chemical assay is made of magnesium alloy debris H.G. Wells: Cavorite [80]—a mythical substance
from an alleged UFO ditching off Brazil revealed it was to reverse gravity, as a means of travelling to the
a pure isotope 26Mg and 4% heavier than that found on Moon, fails because it could lead to perpetual
Earth. It is very difficult to dismiss Hill’s book out of motion This is probably the first mention of anti-gravity
hand but unfortunately leading gravitational specialists (1903).
cannot find any scientific way forward from all this A.P. Thurston, 1919: This was a unique review of the
evidence. future for civil aviation in the UK. He defined several
In the 1950s there was a renewed interest in technical and administrative advances, all of which have
gravitational research of which the Gravity Research materialised, except one, ‘a new form of auto-gravity’. I
Foundation of the USA is a good example [74]. An note the significant use of the term ‘auto-gravity’, not
annual prize was awarded for the best paper submitted the more common ‘anti-gravity’. Thurston must have
on the subject of the nature of gravity or its manipula- known of Well’s Cavorite: had he already seen the falsity
tion [75,76]. In the 1960s The Gravitics Research of the latter?
Group of Aviation Studies International was formed Prof. Hermann Oberth: Prof. Hermann Oberth wrote
in the UK [65] and there were many others. But then the in the 1920s about the idea of converting planetary
subject became confused with the Flying Saucer gravitational energy to propulsive uses [68], but see
distractions [71]. There are stories of German anti- Section 4.2.7.3 [81].
gravity research at the end of World War 2 and saucer- Lopez [82]: Liquid mercury contained in a triangular
and bell-shaped devices alleged to be capable of tube rotated at high speed. Extremities exceed the speed
levitation. Adamski’s Venusian saucer probably of light which as an engineering device seems distinctly
stems from this and the fatuous USAF flying saucer unpromising.
projects at AVRO Canada do too. The history of many Gravity shielding: The Podkletnov experiments on
of the false trails into novel propulsion of those days spinning superconducting discs [83] first announced in
have been well recorded [77–79] and will not be reported 1992 and now, 10 years later receiving unprecedented
further here. world interest, see Section 4.2.7.2.
Absorber, insulator or reflector of gravity [75,76]: My solution to these dilemmas was the Morphological
These alone cannot replace conventional aircraft sys- Study, duly reported in Section 4.2.2.
tems. Hence extra weight, complexity and cost of a
hybrid device is implied.
Inertia drive: A concept for increasing force
4. Part II—to the future
on an isolated mass. Although so far only vaguely
defined and only appearing in minute amounts in
4.1. Steps towards a serious quest
experiment.
Biefield–Brown: A propulsive effect on capacitors is
I have already referred to Michael Faraday’s experi-
claimed to be capable of producing forces of interest
ments intended to delve into the nature of gravitational
to aeronautics [66]. This has received a lot of attention
force in the 1840s [27]. Perhaps, the next professional
but for engineering design looks singularly unattractive.
step is the 1919 seminal paper by Dr. A.P. Thurston,
Very high voltages are necessary but the design of
who was Sir Hiram Maxim’s chief engineer, and who
such devices is not allowed for. Some incredible stories
inaugurated the first university course in aeronautics at
hint at an application of this idea to the Northrop
Queen Mary College, London, in 1910. After the Great
B2 [84].
War the UK government created a Ministry of
Mass modification (supermass): Mass modification is
Reconstruction to investigate over 20 ways in which
one of the many spurious ideas patented in the USA.
positive steps could be advocated to advance industry,
Ion and photon drive: Ion and photon drive is well
business and social conditions. Thurston wrote the
understood but only applicable to deep spaceflight
paper on the future of civil aviation [90] for which he
missions.
was paid d5. In it he made several recommendations
Anti-matter: First identified by Paul Dirac and now
regarding aircraft design, the possibility of finding oil
well-established in physics and experiment, this was the
from within the UK, new meteorological services,
subject of a paper by Freitag of NASA as a means of
unified aeronautical research, power from the atom
spacecraft propulsion in 1984 [85]. The scale of the
and some new form of levitation which he called ‘auto-
device was huge, quite useless for the aerospace projects
gravity’, not ‘anti-gravity’. It is remarkable that all his
of this report. A modern review of the subject is in
recommendations have been realised except auto-grav-
Ref. [86].
ity. It should be noted that Thurston saw ‘auto-gravity’
Alzofon, of Boeing, [67] (Anti-gravity with present
as a propulsive means for aeronautics.
technology: implementation and theoretical founda-
There are now three serious research programmes in
tion): He reinterprets the zero-point infinite energy of
existence which form the main substance of this paper:
the quantum mechanics field and claims that the effect
the BAe Project Greenglow commencing in 1986, the
he identifies can be used for propulsion, see Section
NASA Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Program
4.2.7.1.
(BPP) of 1996 and work at ESA since 2000. They began
Dr. Ron Evans, leader of the BAE SYSTEMS Project
independently, the first concentrating on aeronautical
Greenglow, [87] summarises the plethora of half-baked
use and the second on spaceflight applications. They will
theories [88] in this field: as they stand, none of them can
be described briefly in chronological order.
be used for aircraft design.
One is left with the conundrum of there being a
continuing and powerful incentive for individuals to 4.1.1. Project Greenglow
publish outlandish ideas, but which do not lead on to Project Greenglow originated at the ex-British Air-
actual engineering solutions. What impulses lie behind craft Corporation factory at Warton in Lancashire,
this? Where do creative ideas come from [89]? Such famous as the home of the Canberra, Jaguar, Lightning,
thoughts have plagued man since classical Greek times Tornado and Eurofighter aircraft. In the 1970s a Future
and certainly reappear in this domain of novel propul- Concepts group was set up to investigate new fighter
sion. But can all this jumbled evidence give any guidance aircraft designs and technology (AST 396 and AST 403
at all? A real problem is that, although most of the [91]) leading on to hypersonic projects and early design
claims only produce very small and inadequate force, proposals for what eventually became the NASA Space
there is no evidence of the possibilities of massive Shuttle. Tom Smith was in charge of this and under his
subsequent order of magnitude increases. Faraday’s first leadership thoughts turned to speculative propulsion
demonstration of electromagnetic induction was of ideas in 1986. A joint BAe-University Round Table
minuscule power: who could have imagined it being Meeting was held at Preston, in 1990 [92] in order to
magnified up to gigawatt power machines? So one is left highlight BAe’s awakening interest in gravitational
with the residual uncertainty: has the new principle physics research, primarily for counter-stealth and novel
already been described but the possibility of massive propulsion reasons, and to learn of UK research in this
development has not been appreciated? area [93].
During the early 1990s the work received further The scope of BPP is indicated by the proposals for the
support from Professor Brian Young, the Director of 1999 program, shown in Fig. 21.
Strategic Studies at Warton, where the emphasis was There is a fundamentally different approach between
directed more towards novel propulsion research. Brian the UK and USA programmes: the former is basically
Young’s seminal paper to the IMechE in 1991 ‘‘anti- an aeronautical quest, i.e., flights within the atmosphere,
gravity—the end of aerodynamics?’’ [94] speculated on and the latter is a search for new space propulsion
the influence of a radical new force on aircraft design. means. There is nevertheless close collaboration between
He summarised current thoughts on this subject and them each recognising that such differentiation strength-
showed three sketch designs showing radical possibilities ens the coverage and clearly any read-across between
for aircraft design and use. They were: a Heavy Lift them would be evident. As an example: the 1997 BAe
transport, a City Hopper (VTOL bus) and an advanced study sought improvements to military aircraft but the
hypersonic fighter. solution proved later to be extremely beneficial to
Over this period contact was made with MoD, DERA spaceflight.
and Rolls-Royce to ascertain their level of interest.
Links were made with researchers in the US who 4.1.3. The ESA programme
subsequently were influential in promoting the NASA Two indications will be cited to show the extent of
BPP Program, which started in 1996. European activity in advanced space propulsion. A
week-long landmark conference was held in Versailles in
May 2002, organised by the AAAF, supported by ESA
4.1.2. The NASA BPP effort [96]. Subjects included Pulse Detonation Engines, Solar
Marc Millis originated this activity in 1996 [95]. It is Thermal Propulsion, Scramjets, Air-breathing hyperso-
based in the NASA Lewis Research Centre at Cleveland, nic power plants, Nuclear Propulsion and ‘physics for
Ohio, traditionally the home of new ideas in propulsion. propulsion: the long term’ [97]. Marc Millis reviewed the
Its Steering Group has members from NASA, DoD, NASA BPP. This mammoth meeting with 42 sessions,
DoE, USAF and industry. Its goals are: (a) propelling a and the large number of organisations associated with it
vehicle without propellant mass, (b) attaining maximum represents a serious, coordinated European effort.
transit speeds possible, and (c) creation of new energy The second example is a recent remarkable paper by
propulsion methods to power devices. These are goals Bertolami and Tajmar entitled ‘gravity control and
beyond existing science, with no guarantees they are possible influence on space propulsion’ done under
achievable. ESTEC (ESA) contract [98]. It deals comprehensively
Fig. 21. NASA breakthrough propulsion program, 1999.

with virtually all known variations on classical Einstein 1997, where the intention was to form centres of
theories, including gravito-electromagnetism, gravita- excellence for novel propulsion methods linked together
tional anomalies, ‘vacuum engineering’ and gravity under a single programme. Fig. 22 shows the scope of
controlled propulsion. The comments on vehicle propul- Project Greenglow (in 2000)—there are six external
sion aspects are revealing and not overoptimistic. The groups/consultants supplementing the BAE SYSTEMS
quality of the work is exceptional and mirrors some of activity, which is centred at Warton, Lancashire.
the Project Greenglow investigations shown in Fig. 23. To quote Dr. R.A. Evans, the Project Greenglow
It introduces a computer-based database of other papers leader,
in this domain, ranking them by quality and relevance. ‘‘The main purpose behind BAE SYSTEMS’ Project
This parallels my morphological study and is discussed GREENGLOW is to provide a focus for research
further in Section 4.2.2. into novel propulsion systems and the means to
power them. What drives this research? Well, apart
4.2. Project Greenglow from humankind’s innate curiosity, there are a
number of other factors. Today, the majority of
This is a BAE SYSTEMS research programme which our transport systems are dependent on oil. So,
seeks to find alternative ways of creating forces suitable some obvious factors are the eventual decline in the
for aerospace applications by investigating new physics sources of supply, the increased cost accompanying
and ways of adapting these to novel designs of flight scarcity, the reliance on supplier countries and the
vehicles. It has five component parts: (i) an experimental problems with global warming, to name but a few.
programme, (ii) a theoretical input, (iii) a morphological A twin breakthrough in physics might herald a new
study, (iv) a ‘What-if’ study including vehicle designs, power source for a revolutionary 21st Century propul-
and (v) a global assessment of outcomes. My contribu- sion system, which might side step many of these
tion has been to the last three but the first two will be problems.
summarised next. ‘‘Already rapid global transport systems are
operating at the fringes of near-space. However,
4.2.1. Experimental and theoretical human transportation within the Solar System will
Since 1996 BAe has funded several small exploratory only become technologically practical if there is a
programmes of work at several UK universities. The breakthrough in terms of speed, coupled with an
outgrowth of this became Project Greenglow, starting in adequate energy/fuel supply for the propulsion
Fig. 22. Project Greenglow: theory and experiment.

Fig. 23. Project Greenglow roadmap.
system so that the vast distances of deep Space no longer sunlight. But, some exotic on-board power sources to
form a barrier to travel. Again, a revolutionary allow deep space travel are also being considered.
propulsion system and a new power source is required ‘‘Under the heading of Quantum Theory, the
before this can happen. GREENGLOW Route Map divides into three paths,
‘‘As the GREEENGLOW Route Map, Fig. 23, namely Quantum Electrodynamics, Zero Point Energy
shows, our research paths are fairly numerous at this and Quantum Gravity.
speculative stage of the investigations, to spread the ‘‘According to Classical Mechanics, a Vacuum at a
risk as we try to home in on the most promising temperature of Absolute Zero contains no energy. But
areas for possible breakthroughs and subsequent ex- according to Quantum Mechanics, the Vacuum is filled
ploitation. with fluctuating electromagnetic waves of every fre-
‘‘On the electromagnetic path of the Route Map, the quency, which pop into and out of existence in
end goals include Solar Sails, Ion Drives and Microwave accordance with Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.
Thrusters. These concepts are all based on conventional Therefore at every point of the Vacuum, summing the
physics and the emphasis is mostly on developing energy contained in the infinite number of ghostly
engineering solutions. Independently of GREEN- vibrations present, gives rise to infinite Zero Point
GLOW, Solar Sails research is being led in the UK by Energy there.
Glasgow University, while QINETIQ are among the ‘‘When two conducting but uncharged, plates are
world leaders in Ion Drives. Within GREENGLOW, we brought very close together, to form a narrow cavity,
have been investigating Microwave Thrusters with they experience a force in addition to that of the
Dundee and Strathclyde Universities. gravitational attraction between them. This is the
‘‘When an electromagnetic wave illuminates a con- Casimir Force. One explanation for this force is based
ductor, surface currents are generated which react. via on the Zero Point fluctuations. Boundary conditions for
the Lorentz force, with the incident wave to cause a wave incident on a conducting wall require that a node
ponderomotive forces giving rise to thrust. Using occurs there. Consequently, the length of some waves
specially shaped resonators, theory indicates that the will preclude their existence within the cavity, so that the
thrust can be considerably magnified and the thrust infinity of waves within the cavity is less than the infinity
direction controlled. Moreover, a closed force generat- of waves outside. The resulting difference in energy
ing system seems possible, where the microwave source density of the Zero Point Field squeezes the plates
and the cavity are joined structurally. The longer term together. We are working with Birmingham University,
vision is that of large steerable arrays of microwave to investigate the Casimir Force, using a superconduct-
thrusters for space vehicles providing high speed over ing torsion balance.
large distances. At the moment we envisage that the ‘‘The Casimir Force has already been measured at
microwave power would be derived from converted the Los Alamos Laboratory and at Bell Labs. Several
studies are now underway to investigate the possibility ‘‘The gravitational field around the earth can also be
that, by manipulating the cavity wall geometry, used to propel near-earth space vehicles. Such vehicles,
the Casimir Force might be used to tap into the called Gravicraft would be composed of two large
infinite ZPE. However, many scientists remain deeply containers connected via a long cable, several kilometres
sceptical, saying that the idea would lead to perpetual in length, which is kept taut by rotation. Each container
motion machines which are impossible. Of course, would house a winding mechanism to allow the length of
if such a concept does prove feasible then it will the cable to be altered. Gravicraft propulsion, which
transform the Power Generation Industry and could relies on the earth’s gravitational gradient, would be
provide the power source for a new means of propul- achieved by varying the moment of inertia of the
sion, too. rotating system. This concept is based entirely on
‘‘According to the Davies–Unruh Theorem, an accel- Newtonian Mechanics and, although primitive, could
erating mass sees the background against which it is be used to transport cargoes to locations at different
moving increase in temperature. This is the gravitational orbits.
analogue of Ohmic heating and a simplistic explanation ‘‘Under GR, we. have been keeping a watching brief
is based on the idea that the ZPE density spectrum alters on ideas like the Warp Drive concept proposed by
when viewed from an accelerating reference frame. In a Alcubierre [100]. However, our main interest has been in
way, the ZPF provides a resistive medium to accelerat- investigating the linearised form of GR, which gives rise
ing masses. to a dynamic model of gravitation analogous to
‘‘Haisch, Rueda and Puthoff [99] have proposed that electromagnetism. This subject is covered by the sub-
all neutral masses contain partons, that is, electrically heading Gravitational Electro-Magnetics, This analogue
charged sub-particles, which, through interacting with is particularly helpful to Aero and Electrical Engineers,
the zero point vacuum fluctuations, give rise to the as it provides them with a model with which they
mass’s gravitational field. Moreover, a mass’s inertia are very familiar. In fact, the equations are similar in
could then be traced to a Lorentz Force type interaction form to Maxwell’s Equations which govern electromag-
between the moving mass, containing partons, and the netism. The analogue of the electric field is Newtonian
ZPF. Because of the possibility that a method for the gravity. The analogue of the magnetic field is
control of inertia might evolve, we are keeping an eye on gravitomagnetism, which may he viewed as a Special
these developments. Relativity effect associated with moving mass. The
‘‘The third main heading in the GREENGLOW existence of gravitomagnetism was predicted more
Programme is Gravitation. Research in this area is than a century ago, but has never been detected.
initially separated into theoretical studies at Lancaster From an engineering point of view, being able to
University and an experimental study, involving generate artificial gravitomagnetic fields offers the
superconductors, at Sheffield University. Under the prospect of being able to induce gravity fields. Following
theory paths, Gravitational Energy studies are on from this would be the control of inertia which
based on conventional Newtonian Mechanics, while would open up the possibility of field propulsion
General Relativity covers the standard model for without expelling mass.’’
Gravitation. Gravitation & Spin covers several topics,
including the effect of spinning masses within GR as
well as in Post-Einsteinian, or exotic, theories of 4.2.2. The morphological study4
Gravity. This stage of Project Greenglow was devised to
‘‘We are all familiar with ocean tides and HM include, in a logical way, all published information
Government is currently examining the possibility about novel propulsion means, without, initially, mak-
of using tidal barrages in the Bristol Channel to gene- ing judgements regarding the scientific validity of the
rate electrical power. However, the ocean tides are only claims. This follows the analysis presented in Sections 3
the manifestation on earth of the tidal gravitational and 3.5. This kind of study has proved to be useful in
fields in near-space which offer a huge reservoir of many fields of knowledge where there is a confusing
potential energy. Under the Gravitational Elasto-Dy- number of members in a class with diverse character-
namic Study, an energy extraction concept is being istics where it is desired to establish relationships
considered, which is based on the behaviour of between them and the form (Greek Morphos) of the
extensible material cables, with massive attachments, field. Biology and archaeology are obvious areas but it
which undergo deformations due to time-varying has also been used in engineering in innovative projects
gravitational forces, transferring the energy into elasto- at the early conceptual stage. In civil engineering,
dynamic form. The study is aimed at investigating an
efficient means of power extraction and a means of
supplying that power to a chosen location on earth or in 4
Morphological=the study of the structure and forms of
space. organisms as opposed to the study of their functions.
a mammoth Canadian project with a large number of Novel aircraft projects are designed for a variety
alternative concepts and designs initially arrayed them of reasons, e.g., to set out a research strategy,
all, without judgement of worth, to display a large compare alternative solutions or even to prove a
number of possibilities. Missing links were then seen and concept to be unviable. Momenthly, in this bold
unexpected combinations clarified. A similar situation study, wanted to open up thinking beyond
arose in the construction of the Thames Barrier, a very confines of existing ideas. Although stretching
innovative project. In all 42 possible designs were technology considerably the concepts were within
examined in this way and 41 rejected. An aeronautical the realms of existing physics. As Joseph Joubert
example was a morphological study of all the means of quoted, from the 18th century ‘‘ It is better to
providing powered lift as part of the research into debate a question without settling it than to settle
post-Harrier designs [101]. One advantage of this a question without debating it’’.
method, so applied, is that any suggestions can first be * New regimes of physics.
displayed without prejudice and a greater number of * New laws of physics.
advantages accumulated. A thorough Morphological * Existing laws revisited in the light of later concepts.
Study should at least ensure that no good candidate is
overlooked! Candidate categories might be classified as:
The first step in the process is to make a ‘morpho-
logical list’ of all the candidates. This must be done Mechanical, e.g., gyroscopic thrust.
without using criteria of excellence or applicability: only Matter/inertia modification, e.g., gravity screening.
the descriptive name of the candidate is used. Then the Electro-mechanical.
candidates can be grouped by species, category, sub- Electro-magnetic levitation.
division and linkages to define the total field which Acoustic levitation.
encompasses the candidates. There will be missing links, Plasma physics.
gaps, crowded areas and sparse areas which indicate Zero-point force (ZPF) and zero-point energy (ZPE).
whether a particular category has received a lot of Time travel, etc.
attention or otherwise. In this case, I estimate there will
be many hundreds if not thousands of candidates. 4.2.2.1. Preliminary assessment. I cannot see much
The second step is then to filter out the candidates hope for mechanical inventions for lifting forces since
using value criteria such as scientific credibility, magni- aeronautical powers are very large (Fig. 62). Even the
tudes of forces, difficulties of engineering, lack of 32,000 HP lift fan of the Lockheed Martin JSF is
experimental confirmation of a theory or opinions of trivial compared to the 150,000 HP of energy in a
specialists in a particularly obscure field of knowledge. Boeing 747.
The strength of the morphological method is the two Various claims of inertia reduction are too vague to
independent steps, which is somewhat counterintuitive assess engineering application. What volume is in-
since one usually combines the two, i.e., identifying an volved? Does the reduction of inertia also apply to the
idea and then according it a value. ejected propulsive matter? In Ref. [98] it is shown that
The morphological study was set out in this way: the overall effects on a reaction craft are, in fact, worse!
each candidate is summarised on a Morphoform, This is further discussed in Section 4.2.7.4.
Fig. 24. These are then grouped into Morpholists, e.g., In my opinion virtually all claims published to date
a first selection, Fig. 25. Many ideas appear as patents, are as alchemy. Changing base metals into gold could
which have been extensively trawled: some are in never yield to the techniques available in the Middle
Fig. 26. There are also new energy systems, examples Ages, but had to await knowledge of atomic modifica-
are in Fig. 27. tion by nuclear physics. As today, without the knowl-
There are at least four basic methods of providing edge of the genetic code no traditional medicinal
breakthroughs for aerospace: techniques will cure genetic defects such as sickle cell
anaemia or thalassemia. In the absence of the solution
* Stretch existing technology by orders of magnitude, even the labels we use are wrong, and hence inconsistent,
e.g., by Momenthly of Boeing [102], who, at a e.g., Phlogiston as negative oxygen.
conference in 1972, proposed some designs of Is it not strange that there are so many weakly
extreme originality, which have never been surpassed: substantiated theories? Is there an underlying explana-
* Electrically propelled general aircraft. tion? I feel that there may be some anomalous and
* Airliner powered by nuclear fusion. obscure phenomena, only fully describable by levels of
* Flying taxi propelled by rotors powered by high- physics which we have not yet grasped, and that various
energy flywheels. manifestations of these discrepancies find their way into
* Hybrid airship-flying boat powered by lasers from the many partial and inapplicable theories already
orbit. published. However, there are usually weak signals to
Fig. 25. Morpholist.
Fig. 24. Morphoform.
the future, hidden among the noise of guesswork and concentrations of research and detect progress along a
spurious ideas. We need sharper methods for distin- fruitful path.
guishing between the two.
The ESA report by Bertolami and Tajmar [98] arrived 4.2.3. The what-if study5
as this paper was going to press. It studies gravity I was aware at an early stage that most of the
control for space propulsion and in an annex presents a published ideas were merely qualitative and yet extra-
database of other world-wide papers in this field. Each is vagant claims would be made for vehicles employing
referenced, but without number, and graded coarsely by these novel means. As an experienced aircraft and
quality and field of research. The researchers and missile designer I could see no value in these offerings
authors are given together with their addresses and and yet none had been challenged effectively. So in order
hence represents a valuable contribution as a thorough to proceed beyond the Morphological Study, and seek
collation of a complex subject. Hence, it can be included for the more promising features, there was a need to
in the morphological study, covering a specific sub-field, assess whether the claimed force and energy systems
i.e., gravity control. However, it does not have a were of aeronautically valid magnitudes. Furthermore,
morphological relationship between the members, and all too many novelties defined new forces without an
unlike the one of this paper makes judgements at this attendant mobile energy source! Although I then
early stage. It would be very useful to bring these two embarked on this next step, now to be described, I did
sources of data together and hopefully progress them not at first call it a ‘What-if ’ study—that came later.
together in the future. The essential process is to define the physical
But the morphological study is an on-going function characteristics of a revolutionary new flight engine/lift
Fig. 28. Already as many as 90% of all relevant system, install it as a replacement in existing types of
candidates have been named and some hundreds
classified. Some tentative ‘patterns’ have been recog- 5
The idea of a ‘what-if’ study is to assume some technical
nised. Many other sub-studies could make worthwhile advance and design vehicles around it and then assess the
projects for those studying the history and philosophy of consequences, both benefits and disbenefits. In other words,
engineering design. More substantial results are ex- ‘what’ would happen ‘if’ such and such an advance were
pected in the future and it may be possible to detect possible.
Fig. 26. Morphinvent.
aerospacecraft, design totally new flight vehicles and Fig. 27. New kinds of energy.
then assess performance gains
My so-called ‘What-if ’ study, as a contribution to
BAe’s Project Greenglow, began in1997 [103] with the classical wing-propulsion split in aircraft design and
challenge ‘‘to investigate the changes in military aircraft define a totally new means of creating aeronautical
design from the availability of an anti-gravity force’’. forces seemed the only way to break out from
The need for such an assessment had been recognised in conventional aeronautical shortcomings—leaving aside
1992 when George Seyfang, of Warton, wrote a memo where such a strange path would lead. Although clearly
suggesting a designer should be asked this question revolutionary in concept it is not without precedent since
[104]. Since the physical nature of this breakthrough the birds employ a single effector to produce lift and
could not be defined at this stage I decided that, if a new thrust! Essentially, the engine interacts with space itself
form of aeronautical propulsion is found and proves to drawing energy and force from it.
be successful, it will cost a great deal of effort and Scope of the study: A new force-producing engine is
resources to develop it. Thus, to be worth doing at all, it defined in physical terms and is then applied to several
must confer superb advantages, e.g., those outlined in different aircrafts, guided weapons and spacecraft types.
Section 3.2. This immediately ruled out many candi- These cover a wide range of performance: VTOL up to
dates, e.g., anti-gravity or gravity shielding6 for these Mach 25, weights from 3 tonnes to one and a half
alone could not lead to a viable vehicle. Hybrids, i.e., thousand tonnes and ranges of a mile to global distance
adding some gravity shielding to conventional wings and and low-Earth orbit. Combining such a new engine with
jets are nonsense. The next step was very difficult—one conventional aerodynamic force systems is in some
is not used to designing unknown aircraft with unknown instances favourable, in others, not so. Unconventional
propulsion and lift systems! designs and missions have been explored. Unless the new
The 1997 What-if study continues some ideas I had in force is as powerful as assumed here, sufficient to act
1968 [105], taking into account more recent physical alone over the whole flight envelope, it cannot confer the
discoveries. The fundamental decision is to reject the dramatic improvements indicated.
The novel force engine: Three elements of the new
6
This does not mean that gravity shielding effects should not propulsion are necessary: (i) a means of force genera-
be studied and experimented with as a step towards a better tion; (ii) a power source, and (iii) means of stability,
understanding of physical anomalies. control and navigation. These must be characterised by
Fig. 28. Morphological sieve.
Fig. 29. Mass-dynamic engine arrangement.
mass, volume, power and energy. The hypothetical engine are defined with thrusts ranging from 5 to
engine, Fig. 29, provides three orthogonal forces X, Y 500 tonnes.
and Z and three moments L, M and N. The necessary The heart of each engine is a sphere of magnesium
physical values of volume, mass, etc. are then set out as alloy and the maximum force is n times its mass. The
in Fig. 30, originally in imperial units, and then force–mass ratio n varies from 10:1 to 25:1 as shown in.
converted to SI units as in Fig. 31. Four sizes of Allowances are made for actuating devices (coils) and
Fig. 30. Inertia engines data (imperial units).
for the structure and volume of the force-creating sub- dispensing with fossil fuel remained. It is significant
system. Mass and volume allowances are included for that some of the designs will be shown to gain
the mobile power source. The installed engines have net considerable performance advantages by retaining wings
vales of n between 6 and 10. The energy source assumes and employing the simplified one-axis engines. This sug-
a new category of energy beyond conventional nuclear gests that the arbitrary values for the engine perfor-
energy producing energy at 1% of E ¼ mc2. mance were in fact well judged and I have seen no
There are no strictly scientific reasons for the different subsequent evidence to alter my original assumptions.
values of n used, rather it was a means of assessing the I gave careful consideration to the nomenclature of
sensitivity of the performance to this important para- the engine. I was attracted to Thurston’s ‘auto-gravity’
meter. It would have been more logical to select a range and that he was seeking new aeronautical forces, not
of values of n for each size of engine and apply these merely for those applicable in space. The engine is
values to the aircraft designs. However, this would have hereafter described as a ‘mass-dynamic’ engine following
increased the work considerably. For, if such a para- the thoughts in Section 9.8. As far as is known this term
meter should be varied, so should about 10 others. I was has not been used before and hence cannot arouse
forced to devise shortcut methods to explore, in a misleading impressions. Any other speculative descrip-
preliminary way, this vast unknown domain, using tion such as ‘anti-gravity’ or ‘inertial drive’ presupposes
experience and judgement to maintain control of the certain characteristics or limitations, which is not
process. In fact by varying the values of n from 10 to 25 I intended.7
erred on the safe side and no aircraft design was short of
thrust. Much later I was able to revisit the calculations 7
The original BAe report of 1997 quoted anti-gravity in its
and progressively reduce the value of n in several aircraft title. I was not happy with this except as a label for the word
designs. The first feature to suffer was VTOL capability, raises strong, undesirable connotations. In my report I used
then range and finally the residual advantage of ‘inertia drive’, but I now prefer ‘mass-dynamic’.
Fig. 31. Inertia engines data (SI units).
With these engine assumptions it was possible to order in which they were designed. The number is my
apply them firstly to existing categories of aircraft, personal reference for projects designed since 1942.
military and civil, to judge the overall effect. The general design process applied in each example
will be explained in the case of the very large long-range
4.2.3.1. The What-if aerospace projects. There are three freight aircraft, ‘heavy lift’, Fig. 33. Using detail design
parts to this section. The first part (4.2.3.1(A)–(L)) data General Arrangement drawings are assembled
contains the 12 original designs, Fig. 32, reproduced together with a mass breakdown and performance
from the first BAe report [105]. The second part (4.2.3.2) information of a conventional design. To derive the
gives some advanced spacecraft designs (M–P) com- modified design unnecessary elements are removed, e.g.,
pleted since 1998. The third part (4.2.3.3) gives an the jet engines and fuel, the wings and associated
overall assessment of all these designs. A lot of systems, replacing them with the three parts of the new
subsequent work has developed many of these concepts engine. Adjustments are then made to structure, size and
further but as a historical contribution it was decided to mass to give a coherent new design whose performance
present them virtually in their original form. The order is then reassessed. In most cases a nearly exact
and number of each project are random, merely the replication of the original specification was made but
1250 tonnes, used, e.g., for water bombing. A Heavy

Lift could be stationed alongside a reservoir, take on
water in 15 min and dump over 1000 tonnes of water
over a fire almost instantaneously. A fine new use for
aviation! Operational altitude is taken as 3000 m to
avoid pressurisation and speed would be in the region of
Mach 0.7–0.9 A variation to this design could perform
an all-air delivery system for large indivisible loads from
factory to user. This would be more like an air crane
than a conventional aircraft, for short ranges, probably
straddling the large load underneath a bridge structure.
Clearly compromises in design would be needed to cope
with longer transit distances and whether transoceanic
flight would become profitable.
(B) City hopper (Fig. 36) Types JP 301 A & B: This is a
commuter airborne bus in two versions, the Mk 1 with
30 passengers and luggage and the Mk 2 with 50
passengers and luggage. The single Medium-size mass-
dynamic engine is centrally mounted and there are lines
of forward-facing seats on either side with adequate
windows. There are two side entrances at the front end
and two exits at the rear. The pilot (driver) has a central
front seat with exceptional visibility. VTOL is used;
cruise height is, say, 300–1000 m at 300 km/h. Vertical
acceleration is limited to 0.2 g.
The performance quoted is quite arbitrary since much
higher speeds, altitudes and accelerations are within the
capability of the design. The values selected, as a datum,
Fig. 32. The What-if projects.
give a good average speed over 2-mile hops. There are
four landing legs attached to the outside of the vehicle.
Each of these have three positions: lowest, for landing, a
the Heavy Lift design was scaled up from the Boeing raised position for ground manoeuvres and take-off and
747. The mass table is in Fig. 34, and this is compared highest when the vehicle sits on the ground. This permits
with the B 747 in Fig. 35. Four large engines provided easy entry for passengers, luggage trolleys and wheel-
VTOL and the transport could carry a payload of chairs. There is ample space provided for all these kinds
1200 tonnes non-stop to anywhere in the world. Since its of luggage. Clearly, a great deal of design optimisation
characteristics are not defined by jet engine or wing and operational studies could be done to establish really
aerodynamic behaviour Heavy Lift can fly at any cost/effective applications for this novel craft. There
altitude from, say, 500 ft upwards, the maximum being would be major decisions in relation to flight safety,
determined by the policy adopted for pressurisation and congestion and air traffic control; as also with the
considerations of ATC. This characteristic, inherent in airborne car. It is common at this early speculative stage
the principal of the new engine revolutionises air traffic of a new transport system to concentrate on the vehicle
control and eases airside congestion. alone and neglect the obvious problems of traffic.
(A) Heavy lift-(Fig. 33) Type JP 300: This is scaled up Vehicle design and overall system and environmental
from the Boeing 747 [106] as a pure freighter with a considerations should develop in parallel.
payload of 1000 tonnes over global range (20,000 km). Although this project has adhered to Young’s original
To preserve an uninterrupted loading space the four idea of a commuter transport, if adapted for military
mass dynamic engines (size VL) are mounted in pods use it could be a Chinook replacement. The military
along each side of the lower fuselage. No wings or possibilities of this class of revolutionary aircraft are
tailplane are provided but the fin is retained to align the boundless.
fuselage with the direction of flight. VTOL is used and (C) MACH 4 V/STOL strike/fighter (Fig. 37) Type JP
there are eight undercarriage units, in pairs, at the edge 302: In order to assess likely changes to modern military
of the fuselage. The wheels castor, except for the third aircraft it was intended to modify a JSF design but as no
row back from the front, which is fixed fore and aft. relevant project data on JSF was made available I based
CCTV is provided at the rear for control in ground this design on the HS 1034 of 1966. I did this project at
manoeuvres. There is an overload payload of Kingston in the Advanced Projects Group of Hawker
Fig. 33. Heavy lift transport.
Siddeley Aviation [107]. This was a Mach 4 swing–wing locations for the four medium-sized mass-dynamic
interceptor/strike design whose performance has yet to engines. Without wings and fuel the performance is
be realised in practice. On the argument that very high exceptional. Unlike air-breathing engines there is max-
angular rates and high lateral accelerations are required imum freedom for choice of altitude and, without wings,
for its role it seemed sensible to use the mass-dynamic gust response should be minimal.
force engine only to provide thrust, the wings being (E) Hotol LEOcraft Type JP 304: Published data was
retained.8 The heavy and draggy intake was eliminated used [109].9 The benefit from replacing even unconven-
and so was the 24,000 lb of kerosine fuel. A very exciting tional rocket/airbreathing propulsion with the mass-
performance results. Even with wings the T/W is 1.4, so dynamic drive is startling. The opportunity was there-
VTOL could be an option by adding the Z-force unit fore taken to increase payload considerably and increase
and the three moment coils for stability and control in structure weight, which in the original project was driven
vertical flight near the ground. This project has down to a dangerously low value. As in the V/STOL
considerable potential for far higher speeds and project, this brief comparison does not do justice to the
endurance. The possibilities have only been touched very attractive possibilities for this particular class of
upon so far. application.
(D) Regional airliner (Fig. 38) Type JP 303: An (F) Military trainer (Fig. 39) Types JP305A/B: This is
excellent starting point for this VTOL airliner was the based on an early Hawker Siddeley Kingston project
Hawker Siddeley (Hatfield) HS 141 102-passenger design for the HS 1182, later Hawk. Two variants were
transport [108]. Its 16 RR 207 vertical jet-fan lift engines investigated. In the first a Medium mass-dynamic
were mounted in sponsons along either side of the lower engine employs three-axis force control and renders
fuselage (as in the HL design) which made ideal wings unnecessary. For the second a Small 10,000 lb
8 9
The retention of wings for fighters was confirmed by the HOTOL=Horizontal take-off and landing. LEO=low-
Hawk derivative Type JP 305. earth orbit.
Fig. 34. Heavy lift mass breakdown.
thrust-only unit was installed, the wings and empennage medium engine is slightly wider than can fit into the
being retained. The results show the need for careful standard Hawk fuselage.
overall project design since the former, although capable (G) ‘A3YY’ 600-1000 seater airliner (Fig. 40) Type JP
of VTOL, can only pull 4.5 g in turns; quite inadequate 306: This is based on a broad delta concept [110] as an
for its operational role. The type B, with the Adour alternative to the conventional Airbus A3XX (latterly
replaced by an engine of twice its thrust, gives a superb A380) [111]. The original design embodies full boundary
trainer/strike performance. The normal force available layer control and because of its thick wing configuration
would easily exceed those sustainable by a pilot, hence can offer sleeping accommodation on global flights.
some iteration to reduce size and mass is indicated. It is Propulsion is provided by three Rolls-Royce Trent
noted that although the small engine installs easily the engines mounted on the rear fuselage. A subsequent
Fig. 35. Data comparison–Boeing 747 and heavy lift.
Fig. 36. City hopper.
study done at Cranfield University [112] generated mass provide thrust only. Two 250,000 lb thrust (Large)
and performance information which has been used here engines are housed in pods under the fuselage close to
for the datum aircraft. The policy adopted in this the centre of gravity. In the absence of airbreathing
example was to retain the wing, since it has good space propulsion it was considered unfeasible to provide
for passengers and employ the mass-dynamic engine to boundary layer control and, even with the much inferior
Fig. 37. Mach 4 interceptor/strike fighter.
L=D the performance gain is impressive. With more (J) SST—Type JP 309: As with the A3YY, military
refined design and analysis, there could be valuable com- trainer and HOTOL the replacement of the jet engines
parisons between these two alternative high-tech types. but retaining the remainder of the aircraft gives a
(H) Flying car (roadable aircraft) Type JP 307: The dramatic new approach to this class of airliner. Without
small engine providing 10,000 lb thrust has been used as take-off noise, the environmental acceptability is en-
the basis of this design. A major problem is placing the hanced and some design compromises are eliminated.
driver and passengers so that the vertical (OZ) force There remains an even more attractive prospect, viz.
aligns with the centre of gravity. It is assumed that any wingless supersonic flight with much reduced sonic
out-of-balance moments can be trimmed out by the booms. This idea was not in the original schedule for the
moment provisions of the engine. VTOL is available, study and it is not possible here to take the idea any
with an air performance akin to that of the City Hopper further.
(the shapes do not lend themselves to transonic flight!). (K) Stand-off guided weapon—Type JP 310: The
Considerably extended range is available, which, with a employment of a mass-dynamic engine could be
speed of 200 mph, transforms the characteristics of the contemplated only for a large type. I was involved with
private motor car. Without gaseous pollution, no noise Blue Steel for AVROs from its inception (1954) and
and the ability to get out of traffic jams this design offers have all the necessary design data to make an adequate
some really exciting opportunities. As for the City redesign and comparison. I assume that the existing
Hopper the military applications of this class of vehicle aerodynamic surfaces, stability and control systems
are extensive. would be used and the 25,000 lb thrust Armstrong
(I) Mooncraft launcher—Type JP 308: This is based Siddeley Stentor engine would be replaced by a single-
on the Saturn V-Apollo project [113]. As in HOTOL the axis Small engine of 10,000 lb thrust. This would give a
performance gains transform the size and weight of the more gentle acceleration and climb trajectory which
whole spacecraft launching scene. Launch mass is would limit some short-range/high Mach number
reduced from 6,204,385 to 166,800 lb and the whole trajectories. The rest of the performance would be
craft returns to Earth since the mass-dynamic engine, considerably enhanced: cruising Mach numbers up to 5;
providing reverse thrust prior to atmospheric reentry, ranges out to well beyond 2,000 km (with modern
eliminates the heating problem. inertia navigators) and very long-range, low-altitude,
Fig. 38. Regional vtol airliner.
high-speed flight. Hydraulic control systems would be the mass estimate is in Fig. 43. The parts of the flight
replaced by electrical alternatives, which although not path came together very well. On the simplest of
studied specifically, seem, on general considerations, to estimations using accelerations of 0.5 g the flight time
be well in keeping with modern developments such as was about 70 min. Accelerating upwards at 0.5 g,
the More-electric Aircraft within the Foresight initiative. 100 miles altitude is reached after 4 min with a speed of
This weapon would be compatible with the Future about 4000 fps. Acceleration to satellite speed takes
Large Aircraft, the A400 M. another 20 min covering 3560 miles. There is a middle
(L) Antipodal megaliner (Fig. 41)—Type JP 311: I was cruise period at ‘Mach 25’ and the return is a mirror
challenged in June 1997 to design a quiet hypersonic image of the ascent. Reentry is at 4000 fps. As a
airliner, in order to overcome its present limitation of precaution against power failure in orbit I made space
unacceptable take-off noise. Interest in hypersonic civil and weight provision for a heat shield, retro-rockets and
aircraft comes from many sources; this question arose parachute—but without any detail calculations of
from the trend of increasing productivity of aircraft as feasibility. The trajectories were restricted to accelera-
discussed further. This seemed impossible. Having tions up to but not exceeding 0.5 g for reasons of
embarked on this study it gradually dawned on me that passenger comfort: later studies have shown little loss of
the mass-dynamic drive could overcome this problem. I performance even if acceleration is limited to 0.25 g. For
chose the Very Large engine and did some initial freight versions higher accelerations might give better
trajectory calculations. By starting in vertical flight to overall performance. Productivity comparisons with
an altitude of 100 miles and then curving the flight path other future airliner designs, going out to 2100, are
to be parallel to the Earth’s surface, and accelerating to shown in Figs. 53 and 54.
satellite speed, all the aerodynamic problems of hyper-
sonics would be avoided. For the point design case I 4.2.3.2. Later advanced spacecraft designs (M–P). For
selected: 1200 passengers and 12,000 miles (global) a later report [114] I wished to explore how effective the
range. An interior cross section is shown in Fig. 42 and mass-dynamic engine (Fig. 29) would be in spaceflight.
Fig. 39. Hawk derivative.
Fig. 40. A 3YY large broad delta airliner.

Fig. 41. Antipodal megaliner, external view.
Types M, N, O, and P, here described, give a reasonable module then detaches itself and returns to Earth. The
indication of the excellent performance that is available. station is illustrated in Figs. 44 and 45. The engine is
(M) Mooncraft—Type JP 316F: Two projects have the Very Large type providing 500 tonnes thrust. The
been designed using the mass-dynamic drive. Project JP Mooncraft is designed with a T/W of 1.3 at take-off
316 envisages a 20-man lunar station to operate on the from Earth which gives an all-up mass of 380 tonnes.
lunar surface for 12 months. Trajectories are radically The mass distribution is shown in Fig. 46.
different from those optimised for chemical rocket The cylindrical propulsion module is in the centre.
vehicles and, by using the inherent qualities of the This is surrounded by a doughnut-shaped main body of
system, the flight time to the Moon is only 12.5 h. After the lunar station from which six cylindrical pressure
the station lands on the lunar surface the propulsion vessels radiate. The inner toroidal vessel is 7 m in
Fig. 42. Antipodal megaliner, interior.
diameter in cross-section, on an inner radius of 5 m. The Petal 1: Power services, communications centre,
plan view, Fig. 45 shows the main structural frames, the air conditioning
petal functions and undercarriage locations. The radial Petal 2: Medical centre
vessels (petals) are 4 m in diameter and 10 m long. These Petal 3: Laboratories
modules are provided in the station: Petal 4: Sleeping area
Petal 5: Workshop and garage for lunar rover
Centre Recreation area, restaurant and briefing vehicles
doughnut: room. Petal 6: Supplies: food, liquids, spare parts
Fig. 43. Antipodal megaliner, mass breakdown.
Fig. 44. Mooncraft, side elevation.
The craft does not encounter atmospheric velocities thrust can be applied at any or every part of the flight:
greater than 30 m/s hence the design is not compromised this simplification revolutionises the space station
by having to deal with large aerodynamic loads or design. To cope with uneven terrain at the landing site
reentry heating. This is possible by virtue of the fact that undercarriage legs are provided under the central
Fig. 45. Mooncraft, plan.
doughnut and each radial module which absorb the

slight impact forces and adjust to set the station in a
level attitude.
The familiar trajectory of lunar flights to date is
determined by the primary requirement of a chemical
rocket, i.e., to convert chemical energy into kinetic
energy as rapidly as possible. Maximum vehicle speed is
achieved at burn-out and the craft subsequently coasts
outwards with ever decreasing speed. This process
inevitably gives flight times of the order of three days.
The mass-dynamic system employs a quite different
trajectory. The trajectory, Fig. 47, commences with a
slow constant velocity vertical climb to 36 km altitude to
minimise aerodynamic effects. The air velocity does not
exceed 30 m/s during this phase. Above the atmosphere
the craft accelerates at 0.2 g until a maximum velocity of
10 km/s is reached. This is kept constant until the Moon
is approached. Deceleration thereafter is at 0.2 g to
within 1000 m of the lunar surface after which the auto-
landing control system reduces deceleration progres-
sively to give a soft landing. This trajectory provides a
short flight time of 12.6 h. An alternative trajectory, not
examined in detail, would be to accelerate to well above
10 km/s to half distance and then decelerate to the auto-
land point. Although flight time would be much less,
say 8 h, there seems little point, at this stage, in offering
such high speeds which might complicate navigation
provisions.
(N) Mooncraft propulsion/resupply module (Fig. 48)—
Type JP 317: This is essentially the propulsion module Fig. 46. Mooncraft, mass breakdown.
Fig. 47. Mooncraft, trajectory.
of the Mooncraft JP 316, using the same launch the Martian surface for several months. The station
arrangements and means of mating with the lunar design is externally identical with the Mooncraft JP
station. The Very Large engine is replaced by three 316F. Cruise speed is 150 km/s and the flight time to
Medium engines and the space thereby made available Mars would be between seven and 40 days (depending
provides either a cabin for 20 passengers or cargo space. on planetary separation distance). The stay on Mars
This arrangement maximises the use of JP 316 hardware could either be reduced to 351 or 265 days with 20 crew
and provides for three functions. Firstly, an emergency or 365 days for a smaller crew. The characteristics of
rapid evacuation of the lunar station, secondly, crew Mars flights are set out in Fig. 51.
exchange and thirdly, resupply of equipment and return But there are other designs. The Quadriphibianr is
of scientific data or samples. an air/marine vessel that can float on water, have
(O) Spacetourcraft—Type JP 319: This project, based a submarine mode and also rise into the air and even do
on the designs JP 316 and 318 paves the way to the sub-orbital flight.
imaginative development of space tourism. The mass Two student projects at Kingston University applied
breakdown is in Fig. 49, derived from that of the the mass-dynamic principle to an air superiority UCAV
Mooncraft. The first proposed tour involves, firstly, and an asteroid interceptor [115]. The threat of a
some Earth orbits, transition to a lunar orbit; and, after devastating impact from a near-Earth object (NEO)
a few sightseeing orbits of the Moon, descent to the [116] has recently received a lot of attention. Telescopic
lunar surface and a stay of three to six days, before identification is relatively easy but the means suggested
return to Earth. A passenger complement of 40 is for deflecting large asteroids seem quite inadequate. A
assumed with a crew of 14—providing first class dozen hydrogen bombs hurled at an incoming body,
accommodation food, drink and entertainment. A ensuring high radioactivity as well, is one of the less
typical timetable is given in Fig. 50. sensible ideas. Warning time of several years are also
With such high-performance characteristics the required. Using mass-dynamic propulsion enables a
Spacetourcraft could also make flights to Mars, vehicle to intercept and deflect an asteroid given only
asteroids and, although not specifically calculated, to a few month’s notice.
Jupiter.
(P) Marscraft—Type JP 318: This craft is very similar 4.2.3.3. Commentary on aircraft designs. In many in-
to the Mooncraft and aims to place a 20-man station on stances the apparent reduction in project mass by
Fig. 48. Mooncraft propulsion/resupply module.
Fig. 49. Spacetourcraft.
adopting the new force engine is so great that normal simplest of assumptions. I could have chosen an engine
practice would dictate a further design iteration. performance twice or half as good or could have revised
However, the time and other restraints inherent in this the initial assumptions in the light of preliminary results.
study precluded this desirable process. In the discussion I decided against this in the interest of reviewing a large
that follows the likely consequences of further design number of different types on a comparable basis. In this
optimisation have been taken into account. way the general applicability of the engine to the whole
(a) How much better?: In assessing the results of this of aerospace could be assessed. Selecting four sizes of
exercise in imagineering, it is emphasised that the mass- engine was also a high-risk guess: clearly, each engine
dynamic drive characteristics were first guessed on the should be optimised for each type of aircraft, but this
Fig. 50. Lunar excursion timetable.
Fig. 51. Mars flight.
alone would have been mismatched, since all the other they would herald a new centuries-long transport system
parameters would have required re-iteration and the for the future. Since the mass-dynamic drive is applic-
work would have become excessive. able to all modes of transport it would be the greatest
Although the initial assumption was a three-axis revolution ever experienced in world transportation.
orthogonal force system it is possible that the lateral (b) Feasibility: It is impossible to judge feasibility at
force provision is redundant. Its removal would simplify this stage. The experiments purporting to provide
the engine and control system. Examples of the even evidence of novel forces indicate only trivial values so
simpler single-axis thrusters are the V/STOL and far. Many orders of magnitude increases would be
military trainer designs. required to reach the force levels assumed here. The
In fact, the characteristics of the new designs are so same criticism could have been levelled at Faraday’s
superior to conventional aerospace craft that, if realised, experiments on electrical induction: who then could
have imagined global electric grids and gigawatt power (h) Weaknesses inherent in hybrid systems: There is a
stations? The winning strategy is to identify the system, temptation, at an early stage of development of a novel
weak though it is today, that can grow to the immense system, to combine it with an existing one, the hope
powers needed in the future. being to obtain the advantages of both. There are many
The assumed engine data should be a target to guide examples in all kinds of engineering, e.g., the hybrid
theoretical and experimental research. Its virtue will be electric-diesel motor car, the dual-fuel natural gas-petrol
that any alternative proposal can be rapidly evaluated, car, the Convair B-36 carrying its own defensive fighter
not merely on a few physical quantities but on a full- (P-84), the Kitson railway locomotive that had both
bodied aerospace project assessment. I suspect that most steam and diesel drives to the six-coupled main wheels!
of the alleged ‘‘anti-gravity’’ forces will not be usable in It is very rare for a hybrid to succeed for long.
real vehicles to give a performance superior to conven- Theoretically a few points of better efficiency can be
tional aerodynamic vehicles of aerospace. Unless any shown but the true engineering problem of carrying
new engine provides a very improved performance there double systems (fuel storage, prime mover, controls and
is no hope for it. New transport systems, if viable, soon means to match the two power-giving systems) all leads
become world-wide and the candidates satisfying such a to extra weight, complexity, cost and unreliability. In
dominant requirement must offer exceptional advan- reality, the hybrid often possesses the disadvantages of
tages. The characteristics of the mass-dynamic craft both systems.
reported here meet this tough criterion. This general warning certainly applies here. So I have
(c) Noise: It is expected that the mass-dynamic engine gone mainly to a pure new engine system, and later
will be very much quieter than the conventional jet considered whether progressive introduction of some
systems. Almost silent propulsion will improve public classic parts like wings might be advantageous.
acceptability near airports and make for a more pleasant ‘‘Stoppers’’: In preliminary project design various
cabin environment. The elimination of wings would give problems of varying difficulty are uncovered. Effort is
a substantial reduction of aerodynamic noise. Sonic not available to tackle all of them exhaustively: the
booms, although still created by a supersonic body ‘Stoppers’ method is a discipline to rank problems in
should be less than for a winged craft. such a way that very serious issues, which may even be
(d) Lower altitude flight: Those designs not requiring completely insoluble, to be identified at an early stage.
aerodynamic lift or propulsion can fly at any altitude. Ralph Hooper (Chief Engineer, Kingston 1969–1985)
This overcomes the limitations imposed on civil aircraft was the originator of this concept. His early analysis of
propelled by airbreathing engines which congest the alleged impossibilities of the P 1127 (Harrier prototype)
height bands near the stratopause. This new perfor- is a classic [93]. I have identified these so far:
mance potential, coupled with a low noise level, should * Recovery from partial or total engine failure.
permit a whole new exploitation of hitherto unused * Effect of high electro-magnetic fields on occupants.
airspace. * The necessarily low volume of the high-power source.
(f) Use of conventional aerodynamic wings: The limited * The provision of rapid moment changes for control
number of types investigated shows that there are
and stability in flight to be provided by the mass-
distinct differences in the value of having aerodynamic
dynamic engine for those configurations which
lift. For the Regional Airliner, Heavy Lift, City Hopper
dispense with aerodynamic surfaces.
and flying car three-axis force provision, without * The effects of high e2m fields on radio communica-
aerodynamic surfaces is optimal. The case of the military
tions.
trainer shows that a single-axis (thrust) engine replacing * Dissipation of waste heat from the engine and power
the jet engine but retaining the wing and aerodynamic
source.
controls gives a performance at least twice as good. The * It is obvious that until new theories of physics have
Antipodal Megaliner is the best example of a dramatic
been understood and harnessed the whole concept
improvement achieved with a single-axis mass-dynamic
remains a speculation. I do not regard this as a
engine, a purely ballistic configuration and the elimina-
‘stopper’ to the ongoing enquiry to find such a
tion of aerodynamic lift and propulsion.
solution since the rewards appear enormous.
The question of recovery from engine failure has not
been fully explored but it may be possible, in some cases, This study represents only a first stage of speculation.
to provide a good solution with aerodynamic systems. In fact, it is really very pedestrian, akin to fitting a jet
(g) Radically new configurations: The antipodal trans- engine to a steam locomotive by replacing a conven-
port, wingless SST and regional airliner are early tional force to perform mechanical work. In later
examples of the great challenges for aerodynamic design. developments of the designs presented in this report
There will be many opportunities for imaginative more advantageous use of forces, configurations and
research into novel configurations and also hitherto flight dynamics could be explored. Totally new cate-
prohibited missions. gories of flight, hitherto forbidden to aerospace, could
Fig. 52. Global air traffic to 2100.
be investigated. A second stage might look at providing product of passenger numbers and speed, i.e., passenger
motion by electrostatic fields or gradients, but on kilometres per hour (or the product of Mach number
present evidence this is unlikely to provide such a rich and passenger capacity) as shown in Figs. 53 and 54.
source of opportunity as that evaluated here. In a third The future projects quoted come from [110], and two of
stage even more radical means of transport can be Marchetti’s proposals for meeting the increased produc-
imagined, e.g., teleportation. In this particular idea, all tivity demand [121]. The first wave seems to be
previous concepts of aeronautical engineering are wholly approaching a maximum, but another is expected during
irrelevant. The paradox embedded in this latter means of this century and the Antipodal Megaliner (Section
transport has been well described by Penrose [117]. 4.2.3.1(L)) figure lies on this curve. During the first
More recently, there have been some semi-scientific wave (1935–2000) productivity increases by 100 times. In
reports of the possibility of time travel [118,119], and the second wave (2000–2100) it increases by 70 times.
travel into other dimensions [120]. These speculations To make any progress in developing this wide-ranging
are even less manageable than the concepts discussed in scenario, experience must be used in making design
this paper and are far too speculative to be relevant to decisions, judging traffic growth and the outcome of
this journal. contentious world-wide environmental issues. Further-
more, for such radically new classes of aerial vehicles,
4.2.4. The new aviation there are thousands of questions regarding optimal
Another study [121] has assessed the global effect of solutions: virtually every choice would normally
the introduction of a successful mass-dynamic drive of be the subject of intense research and sub-studies.
the type described in the previous section. To do this, Thus, the evidence presented here is very much a
(a) several civil aircrafts of differing sizes were designed, ‘blitzkrieg’, racing to the target objectives, leaving much
(b) optimal flight paths were calculated and (c) estimates ‘mopping up’ to be done later. A minor fall-out from
made of the time scale for introduction of new designs this work could be hundreds of very challenging projects
into global fleets, gradually replacing the classic types. waiting attack by engineering degree students in the
This timed plan was then used for estimating the future!
reduction in fossil fuel demand and alleviation of global
warming, based on the macro-estimates reported in 4.2.4.1. Mass-dynamic aircraft designs. There are three
Section 3.3.3. classes, depending on range, as shown in Fig. 55. For (I),
Rough estimates of global air traffic from 1990 to ranges up to 100 km the City Hopper is appropriate,
2100 are presented in Fig. 52. (Traffic is measured as working at altitudes from 300 to 1000 m. For (II) ranges
passenger km or tonne km). The LO and HI figures between, say 100–5000 km the aircraft would appear
corresond to annual growth rates of 3% and 5%, almost as conventional designs, e.g., Airbus A 300 and
respectively. Boeing 757 with wings and control surfaces. The
An important feature associated with the growth of essential difference would be the replacement of the jet
civil aviation traffic since the 1930s is the increasing engines and fuel with single-axis (X-force) mass-dynamic
productivity of aircraft, where this is defined as the engine(s). For the longest ranges (III) the flight path
Fig. 53. Civil aircraft productivity.
Fig. 54. Log10 civil aircraft productivity.

Fig. 55. Categories of mass-dynamic aircraft.
Fig. 56. Mass-dynamic global fleet characteristics.
already defined for the Antipodal Megaliner would space to make compromises in these matters. Past
probably be optimum, i.e., a slow vertical climb at experience shows that such problems, which arise from
nearly constant speed, acceleration to sub-orbital speeds the successful growth of traffic in a new transport mode,
when above the atmosphere, a ballistic orbital or sub- are almost always overlooked at the earliest stages when,
orbital path to mid range and then a mirror-image in fact, they can be so much more economically
return without entry heating or sonic boom. addressed.
From these three classes six aircraft design types are Class (II) aircraft would fly almost conventionally,
defined as shown in Fig. 56 which gives data on speed, using STOL runways and existing airports. The wings
range, passenger capacity and ‘productivity’. would define optimum conditions of altitude and speed
for best L=D but the restraints demanded by conven-
4.2.4.2. Aircraft flight paths. No detailed investigation tional turbine engines would be relaxed. In the first
has been made into the best speeds and altitudes for the instance it is envisaged that retrofit of the mass-dynamic
City Hopper. On general considerations their flight engine would give route experience later leading to far
paths would lie well below those of the longer range better brand new designs.
craft. VTOL clearly helps the operation, giving an The longest range ballistic designs (Class III) would
invaluable extra dimension to congestion-bound surface encounter other problems, such as the avoidance of
transport. Assuming no noise or effluent there remains satellites; whether a weightless phase of passenger flight
the potential objection of intrusion of privacy or is acceptable and, if not, what low level of steady
pollution of the view which might create opposition. acceleration should be used and if this might noticeably
However the instinct is that there is sufficient vertical affect overall performance efficiency.
Air Traffic Control will become ever more an issue as hydrogen. This prospect should not enthuse the aero-
traffic volume increases. It is believed that the novel nautical community since the practical difficulties of
aviation described here will greatly ease ATC problems, regular passenger fleets of commercial aircraft using a
with aircraft freed from narrow height corridors fuel at a few degrees above absolute zero will be a
determined today largely by the aerodynamics of wings nightmare [1, Section 6].
and jet engines. In fact, this might be one of its greatest Fig. 58 sets out, for the period 2030 to 2100, the
advantages. estimates for annual traffic and fuel demand for both
conventional fossil fuel and the hypothetical case of the
4.2.4.3. Air traffic volumes. Returning to Fig. 56; this introduction of mass-dynamic aircraft (from Figs. 56
combines the low and high global air traffic volumes, and 57). As demonstrated in Ref. [1], the true situation
from Fig. 52, with the proportion of global traffic cannot be seen unless the fuel needs of road transport
attributed to the six designs of aircraft. These data, are also included. In 2030 road transport will demand
with plausible assumptions for load factor and active 2.4 times more crude oil than will aviation; a figure
flight time per annum, enables fleet numbers to be reducing until 2100 when it is believed they will be more
estimated. For the Antipodal Megaliner, for example, equal. It is deduced that the introduction of mass-
the low traffic would require a global fleet of only 40 dynamic systems that do not use fossil fuel will have
aircraft but the high, a fleet of 300. dramatic effect over the 21st century but that the build-
up will be slow. An higher rate of replacement would
4.2.4.4. Timed sequence to attain mass-dynamic aviation. certainly benefit the oil supply situation and also reduce
It is suggested in Section 9.5.2 that the earliest start for global carbon dioxide pollution but I cannot advise this
the new mass-dynamic systems would be 2011. This until more is known of practical details. All previous
could be a confirmed laboratory demonstration of the evidence, extending over two centuries, suggests that too
new force and energy system. Progress thereafter would high an expectation in this would be foolhardy.
be rapid, as shown by the growth of world aviation in
the decade after 1903. A safe way to engineer a first 4.2.5. Global implications
application to a transport vehicle would be a ship where Subsequent to the What-if study into aerospace
space is available and failure of the machinery would designs, the same principles were applied to all forms
have minor consequences. Early designs suitable for of terrestrial transport; marine, road and rail.
flight use would parallel the build-up of marine The first stage was to assess their applicability.
experience and demonstrator aircraft would probably Maritime transport seemed to be an easier task than
include the Boeing 747 carrying prototype mass- aeronautics since ships had adequate volume and weight
dynamic propulsion devices in additional to the normal was no problem. Various sizes of ship designs were
systems. The use of the Avro Vulcan in developing the modified and at a first look there was unlikely to be any
Olympus engines for the Concorde is recalled. limitations either from too large or too small vessels.
A guess at the progress of fleet replacement is in More study is needed to decide the best way to provide
Fig. 57. The rate of growth of global energy and lateral forces for steering. Manoeuvring in port should
transport systems is well documented and two values be much easier to accomplish than by current methods.
are given for comparison. The first is typical of transport It emerged from the study of application to maritime
(e.g., railways) and energy (e.g., crude oil) and the transport that, in developing the new propulsion, early
second, which is significantly higher is, for nuclear trials could best be performed in a ship.
energy. The growth rates of the entry of the mass- Rail transport would use the one-axis simplified
dynamic systems into world transport are therefore on system without the moment provision. It has yet to be
the high side. Although the penetration of any new assessed whether it would be preferable to use conven-
system is unstoppable, the actual build-up in percentage tional braking systems or employ the main thruster in
terms is slow. Transport systems typically take a century reverse. Considering the poor decelerations available
to reach their maximum size. from friction or regenerative braking the latter could be
better. In fact it is probable that the new drive could
4.2.4.5. Aviation fuel demand comparisons. Without a provide a new category of hard braking, to be used in
revolutionary new propulsion/sustenance system global, emergency as an important safety advantage. The long
aviation, still growing in volume for probably a century, history of European railway development has resulted in
will certainly face a growing deficit of crude oil-derived an overcomplex electric system containing six separate
kerosine before 2010 and beyond [1]. The short-term power systems and 12 different electronic signalling
solution is almost certain to be synthetic hydrocarbon arrangements! Furthermore, the high traction electric
fuel from natural gas but towards the end of the century, power voltage spikes interfere with the safety and
with extreme pressures for alleviating chronic global certification of the electronic control and signalling
warming effects, will be forced to fly on cryogenic systems. These problems are so huge that some have
Fig. 57. Entry of massdynamic drive into global traffic.
advocated the return to diesel traction which would demand by two-thirds and a supply of only 600 million
eliminate these problems but which would be unaccep- tons of synthetic kerosine. These data are towards the
table because of environmental objections. high estimates and for the lower growth rates there
For road transport there is a sizing problem. No great would be no requirement for synthetic kerosine after
difficulty is foreseen in installation in larger lorries, 2080. Note also that the carbon dioxide pollution would
coaches and buses but as presently defined the mass- be less than that for 1990, even with very much increased
dynamic engines are too large for passenger vehicles, traffic.
minicars and motor bikes.
Some initial thought has been given to more 4.2.5.1. The overall timescale. The realisation of mass-
adventurous use of the novel force provider for cranes, dynamic transport systems would probably evolve along
lifts and moving hitherto untransportable heavy and the following sequence:
clumsy loads. For the moment that is where the matter
rests. The first demonstration of the new physics.
The second stage was to assess, in a broad way, the First application—ship demonstrator.
global implications of such changes. Fortunately the Second application—railway system.
previous paper by the present author in this Journal as Third application—civil aviation, replacing the jet
a reasoned conjecture of global road and air transport engine.
evolution out to 2050 [1] could be used. This was then Fourth application—sub-orbital antipodal transport.
extrapolated to 2100 [54]. This projection contained
assumptions about traffic volumes, technological The crucial matter is the date of the first practical
changes, substitution of fossil fuels and environmental demonstration. I hesitate to put a figure to this
factors. Using the timetable of Fig. 57 for the transition today, but perhaps it can be bounded by extremes. If
from conventional to new propulsion vehicles allows a we believe the Kondratief interval in human affairs
recalculation of energy and landspace demands, traffic (Sections 3 and 3.3.2) then 2011, i.e., 54 years on
growth and environmental changes. from Sputnik, would be the time for a first practical
The overall energy demand, for both air and road demonstration—and 108 years after the Wright
transport is given in Fig. 58. These data are intended brothers! The only other parallel I can offer is a
merely to give a broad indication of trends and statement by Wilbur Wright regarding manned flight
conclusions can only be provisional. However, the last [122]. They started their quest to demonstrate manned
row shows the steady decline in global crude oil supply flight in 1898 and gave themselves four years to
from 2450 million tons per annum to 600 million tons accomplish it! Recalling events in 1908 Wilbur said
per annum. Not that the total air and road demand for ‘‘In 1901, I confess that I said to my brother Orville that
oil exceeds the total world supply after 2040. This will man would not fly for 50 years. Two years later we made
lead to the introduction of synthetic kerosine as a flights. This demonstration of my impotence as a
substitute [1]. The reduction of oil demand by the prophet gave me such a shock that ever more I have
introduction of mass-dynamic systems is shown by distrusted myself and avoided all predictions’’. This was
comparing rows seven and eight. Although the reduc- the first aeronautical project and it was completed
tion is slow before 2050 by 2100 it has reduced oil on time!
Fig. 58. Mass-dynamic road and air reduction of fuel demand.
The timing of the start is critical. Allowing for advantage applies equally to rail, road and marine
inevitable inaccuracies of the Kondratief interval we applications.
are talking about the period 2010–2015. As seen from There remains a technical problem—how to turn
Fig. 58 the replacement fleet growth is really very slow. massdynamic forces into rotational motion? This is not
If the start were delayed to, say, 2050 then all the a new problem in mechanical engineering—the harnes-
favourable effects will be largely lost. This must surely sing of steam power first produced an expansive force
be another reason for striving hard to attain the defined that could be made to do mechanical work and the
goal. piston–crank arrangement provided shaft rotation for
transport and power generation. Later the steam turbine
performed a similar function. The alternative of starting
4.2.6. The crucial advantage the new force quest with rotating machinery is a
All the transport modes of the last three centuries still singularly unpromising route. But who will be the
exist. There are canals, used more for leisure than inventor of the rotational motion for auxiliary power
business, railways, roadways, motorways and a signifi- services?
cant aviation infrastructure. Various attempts to intro-
duce clever systems such as walkways, rail-taxis in city 4.2.7. Novel physics
streets fail because the infrastructures are either clumsy, The difficulties to be overcome in achieving the new
expensive or conflict with existing systems. The much force hardly need to be emphasised. I can think of two
heralded Maglev very high-speed electric trains have cases of extreme theoretical difficulty from recent
very expensive track systems and can only handle gentle history: the search to break the Enigma code [123],
curves so are not easy to install in crowded city centres. and Andrew Wiles decade-long quest to solve Fermat’s
A hidden virtue of the new aviation, as described, is the Last Theorem [124]. In both of these cases the solution
maximum use of existing infrastructures, i.e., airports, could never be predicted and incredible ingenuity had
runways, aprons and hangars. With little aerodynamic to be used to reach finality. Unless we can replicate the
noise intrusive conflict with city dwellers could be a similar concentrated serendipitous mental processes
thing of the past and even the Antipodal Megaliners typified by these two examples, I fear we may never
could do VTOL from spaces hitherto unused between get beyond partial and trivial possibilities. Perhaps
runways. Dyson’s quote [125], contains the best commentary on
This advantage is seen to be crucial to the recognition our present position—a nice blend of realism and
of the exceptional advantages offered by mass-dynamic hope! ‘‘When the great innovation appears, it will
transport. But, as shown in Section 4.2.5.1 this almost certainly be in a muddled, incomplete and
compromising form. To the discoverer himself it will be

only half-understood; to everyone else it will be a
mystery. For any speculation which does not at first
glance look crazy, there is no hope.’’
Although seeming to be unlikely, today, with our
present knowledge, we should not lose sight of the fact
that success in our venture could bring the UK a brand-
new industry, employment prospects and the alleviation
of many intractable world problems such as energy
shortage, global warming and congestion. There was an
equivalent event well within living memory when The
First Commonwealth Spaceflight Symposium was held
in London in 1959 [126]. It brought together members of
the spaceflight community—the British Interplanetary
Society and the International Astronautical Federation
with ten speakers from UK industry to explore ways in
which actual vehicles for worthwhile applications could
be built [127].
The result of the ‘inverted approach’ of the What-if
study is to define global engineering objectives and then
pursue ‘project-directed research’ in the search for new
physics. This is no surprise. Val Cleaver in 1957 wrote ‘If
any anti-gravity device is ever to be developed, the first
thing needed is a new discovery in fundamental Fig. 59. From Newton onwards.
physics—a new principle, not a new invention or
application of known principles, is required’ [128]. It is
recognised that there are ‘gaps’ in physics [129]. These water. He comments that exploration of these way-out
are of three kinds: anomalies in existing theories, concepts makes any contribution to engineering diffi-
inconsistency between existing theories and potential cult. But his revelations clearly underline the enormous
leads that have never been followed up. The field of the communications difficulty in the quest for the novel
unknown is vast and science progresses within the force. The evolution of these fundamental discoveries in
processes of the academic and industrial worlds. physics is summarised in Fig. 59.
Research has to be funded and this requires an under- Four ongoing activities in novel physics are sum-
standing of the outcomes which would be expected to marised in the next four paragraphs.
bring either competitive advantages to industry or
prestige to academia. The chance of the gifted, unfunded
individual making a major contribution seems unlikely 4.2.7.1. ZPF and the polarised vacuum. Quoting Hal
today. On the other hand, perhaps such a person could Puthoff from reference [132], ‘‘A theme that has come to
usefully mine the unpopular gaps that exist but which the fore in advanced planning for long-range space
have not yet been followed up since the application is exploration is the concept of ‘propellantless propulsion’
not obvious. or ‘field propulsion’.10 One version of this concept
A comprehensive modern review of the scope for involves the projected possibility that empty space itself
‘advanced physics for space power and propulsion’ was (the quantum vacuum or space-time metric) might be
presented by Dr. Per Anders Hansson at the 52nd manipulated so as to provide energy/thrust for future
International Astronautical Congress in October 2001 space vehicles. Although such a proposal has a certain
[130]. He deals with ‘quantum slipstream drive’ akin to science-fiction quality about it, modern theory describes
Warp Drive which involves the use of wormholes using the vacuum as a polarisable medium that sustains
energy provided by quantum fields. He is less hopeful of energetic quantum fluctuations. Thus the possibility
very large ramjets to scoop up the tenuous gas particles that matter/vacuum interactions might be engineered for
in space for propulsion. The sums indicate intake spaceflight applications is not a priori ruled out,
diameters of the order of 100 km [131]. Further although certain constraints need to be acknowledged’’.
discussion on the quantum vacuum centres of virtual Large numbers of scientific reports, published in
particles and negative energy electrons (the Dirac Sea). Nature, Phys. Rev. and Europhys. Lett., which emanate
He then considers multi-dimensional concepts such as from many authors and institutions, demonstrate
Kalvza–Klein, superstrings, membranes and quintes-
10
sence: defined as the 5th element after air, Earth, fire and Sometimes referred to as zero-point energy (ZPE).
a determined effort to explore this domain of novel possible interactions between gravity fields and Type II
physics. Names such as Feynman (1964), Sakharov superconductors, just in case a secret is harboured there.
(1967) and Lee (1988) opened up the subject which At the moment a mass’s gravitational field appears to
allows serious reexamination of fundamental concepts remain totally unresponsive to any of our searchings,
such as gravity, inertia and energy in relation to the but the goal that, one day, we might be able to
quantum domain of ZPE. Ref [132] also offers metric manipulate gravitation as we manipulate electromagnet-
engineering solutions based on the concept of the ism today is a powerful vision which draws us on. When
polarisable vacuum. No obvious breakthrough towards the breakthrough occurs, as it will, it will herald a new
engineering projects have yet emerged but it is believed revolution in technology. New propulsion systems will
that the concentrated effort , now already underway for be only one outcome of this.
over a decade, is a most significant development. Recently there has been a resurgence of world interest
following disclosure of work by Boeing and Lockheed
on similar lines. There is also the suggestion that the
4.2.7.2. Gravity shielding [83, 133, 134]. In 1992, the levitation phenomenon results from the existence of a
Russian Scientist Dr. E. Podkletnov claimed that, while beam of energy that creates a force which can be
carrying out experiments with a levitated rotating high- focussed. Much more repeatable scientific results and a
temperature (Type II) superconducting disc of YBCO, valid theory are required before this development can be
he found that a small mass held above the disc lost up to judged to be fruitful. As stated earlier, even should this
2% of its weight. He attributed this weight loss to prove to be a real effect, then integrating it into a vehicle
gravitational screening of the Earth’s gravitational field would be difficult and, as with so many such claims,
by the rotating superconductor. Most scientists re- what is the nature of the power source and can the
mained sceptical, but the possibility that this was the device provide all the aeronautical forces required?
first indication that gravity could be altered by an
outside agency resulted in a number of groups around
4.2.7.3. Gravitational tethers. One item of research
the world trying to replicate Podkletnov’s findings. At
within Project Greenglow (Section 4.2.1) has been the
the same time, several theoretical studies suggested that
exploration of gravito-electro magnetism (GEM) by
under superconducting conditions, where condensates
Professor Tucker and his team at Lancaster University.
form, the gravitomagnetic field associated with the
The objectives are: to develop the theory and applica-
rotating superconductor may be sufficiently amplified
tions of GEM, explore energy extraction from the
to cause sideeffects such as gravitomagnetic screening,
gravitational field, analyse methods of gravito-dynamic
analogous to magnetic screening whish occurs in the
propulsion and analyse the dynamics of slender orbiting
Meissner effect, and that, in some way, this was the
structures. It is noted that these objectives are quite
cause of gravitational screening.
different from those associated with ZPE research. One
In the GREENGLOW Study at Sheffield University,
novel outcome has been an investigation to extract
only the effect of a rotating superconductor on the
propulsion energy from the Earth’s gravitational field by
weight of a neighbouring test mass was examined. No
tethering two orbiting spacecraft together in which the
effect was observed. This leaves the question open as to
length of the tethers can be altered by electric solar-
whether Podkletnov’s method of levitating the YBCO
powered motors. When the tether cable (some kilo-
disc, using three 1 MHz solenoids, might be the source of
metres long) is vertical (radial) the winding mechanism
the claimed gravitational screening.
reduces the length of the cable. When the cable is
In a subsequent paper, Dr. Podkletnov claimed that
perpendicular to this direction, the cable length is
when a Type II superconducting surface was struck by a
increased. Angular momentum of the craft is thus able
high voltage discharge a gravitational impulse beam was
to extract energy from the gravity tidal forces and so
generated which could be detected by a nearby
increase the altitudes of the spacecraft. Extensive orbital
pendulum held in the beam. Again, most academics
calculations of this system, seeking for optimal orienta-
remained very sceptical. However, recent theoretical
tion, speed of tether length alteration and introduction
papers by Prof. R. Chiao [135,136] have opened up the
of resonances, have been completed with more varia-
debate. According to Chiao’s theory, when a Type II
tions still under investigation.
superconductor is struck by a microwave beam, the
resulting reflected wave contains a High Frequency
Gravitational Wave component, mixed in with the 4.2.7.4. Inertia modification. The recent report from
electromagnetic reflective wave. This does appear to ESA [98] comments on gravity manipulation and inertia
have some similarities with Podkletnov’s work. modification on reaction propulsion systems. They
Although extremely speculative and controversial, and conclude that ‘‘ycontrol of gravity, even if it were
largely avoided by most academics, it is likely that some achievable, does not imply a breakthrough for propul-
experimental studies will continue to explore the sion. Modification of inertial mass has no influence
at all. Modification of gravitational mass would have to magnitude of this ‘breakthrough’ in imagination can be
compete with classical launch assist technologies such as understood as the only previous example of aerial flight
launching from aircraft, and mountain tops (or linear prior to aviation has been the birds whose fundamental
electric drives on ramps). The use of gravito-magnetic or method was one applicator (the wing) providing
gravito-electric fields for propulsion do not bring any combined lift and thrust. I suspect that the quest will
extra benefit compared to classical electrodynamic settle on as big a jump of imagination as that of Sir
tethers or gravity booms.’’ In spite of this the authors George: possibly, as I have suggested, one device
admit there are other avenues for exploration of the producing all the forces required. But a framework has
possibility of novel forces. It is intended to collaborate been created which links together all the elements of
with this ESA initiative as part of further Project research that are involved.
Greenglow investigations. This is summarised in Fig. 60. The columns set out the
Engineers will not instantly grasp these arguable ideas sequential stages, first the physics, then the engine
and physicists will not instinctively appreciate the definition, applications follow, and finally there are
magnitudes and power densities required for actual global consequences. I have presented just one imagin-
vehicles. However, the morphological study must ary engine—which makes the process clear. But there
include all the tentative physical theories. But more are now several other types of engine which can be
than this; we need to forge new bonds of understanding linked horizontally on either side. For example, suppose
between two hitherto isolated mental universes—those that harnessing the ZPE gives a compact way of
of the practical engineer and those of the advanced producing electric current, but no force. Then the
physicist. It is noteworthy that Hansson’s new physics aeronautical vehicle must retain wings for lift and use
and items 9.7. 1-4 above are spaceflight related and, at electric power to drive propulsive fans. The result would
first glance, favourable outcomes for aeronautics may be the avoidance of fossil fuel use, probably a reduction
have to come from other approaches. in noise but VTOL and space applications might be
Finding the new physics is the necessary major first more difficult than using the mass-dynamic drive of
step but it is not sufficient alone. The theory of heat, by Section 4.2.3. This underlines the powerful interaction
itself, did not give the heat engine, the motor car and the between the component parts of Project Greenglow, viz.,
aeroplane; thermodynamics was also required. Similarly experiment, theory, morphology, engines and global
Newtonian theory led on to dynamics, quantum theory consequences. If there is an ultimate success it must
bred electronics, and there are aerodynamics, hydro- appear on this chart!
dynamics, gas dynamics and electrodynamics. So there The original Project Greenglow investigation began
will need to be a second step defining the means of looking for improvements in military aeronautics and
manipulating the new sources of force and energy: a new yet a significant civil transport application has been
technology. It will need a new name: ‘‘massdynamics’’ developed in this paper. For military systems there are a
perhaps? The third stage will be the designing of set of relationships different from those of Fig. 60, with
prototype ‘engines’ and demonstration of feasibility. different objectives.
After this is successfully accomplished, the rate of There remain some intriguing questions. Fig. 61
progress could be phenomenal. compares the forces associated with eight kinds of
hovering, some static, others by jet reaction. In each case
the fuel rate and net power are quoted and an Earth
5. Critique satellite is included. Until the new physics is known, the
values for the new engine are uncertain but bounds are
The crucial question is ‘Has the quest succeeded? Can estimated for this case.
a breakthrough be sensed and if so what is its nature and The next illustration, Fig. 62, compares some basic
when will it materialise? Clearly, neither of these stages energy and force intensities for transport modes from
has been reached. Is all the activity towards the novel the stage coach to the mass-dynamic engine. The ratio of
force well-directed, is it converging on a perceived intensity from the stage coach to the Boeing 747 is 343
solution or is it all alchemy—well before its time? times and from the Boeing 747 to the mass-dynamic
Unfortunately, the signs are pessimistic, not unlike engine is 107 times. So, the orders of magnitude seem to
aeronautics in the period from Newton to the Wright fit a reasonable progression. It is noted incidentally how
brothers. So what is the appropriate perspective. The inappropriate nuclear power is for transport uses. A
major step during this frustratingly long period of value for ZPE has been quoted [132] as 10109 kW/m3:
waiting must surely be the equivalent of Sir George what exactly does this mean? And how is it to be tapped
Cayley’s postulate that manned flight required the for transport applications?
separation of lift from propulsion. There needs to be Whether that is likely or not, one thing is absolutely
the fundamental definition of the new physics and the certain—the quest needs now the equivalent of Cayley’s
associated steps to lead to engineering application. The postulate—the fundamental physics and essentially the
Fig. 60. Domains and relevancies.
invention. The origins of inspiration for great discov- * It sets out the new ‘Cayley’ objectives.
eries and novelties are unknown. Outstanding successes * It proposes a Novel Physics Club.
in the past could include: Frank Whittle inventor of the * It defines an ‘Enigma-Wiles approach (p. 36).
jet engine, the Manhattan project and Los Alamos, * It sets out a comprehensive global transport/energy
+
Dietrich Kuchemann’s 11
contribution to the design of future to value the novelty.
the Concorde (some of his wisdom is in the Annex) and * It defines a train of physics/invention/design and
the 18th century Lunar Society of Birmingham as a consequences for strategic decisions.
serendipitous gathering with untold contributions to the
industrial revolution. Assuming it comes from serendi- This paper has concentrated on the quest for a new
pitous mutual activities of minds then steps towards a force suitable for aerospace propulsion, enquiring what
favourable climate may be paramount. That would be it might be and how it could advance aeronautical
enhanced by a recognition that there is: (i) a desperate capabilities. However, the broader picture must not be
future need for such a change and (ii) that any proposal overlooked which must advance within the known
can be rapidly assessed for its likely global relevance, principles of physics. Fig. 63 ‘future aerospace chal-
directed purposely towards such an objective. And a lenges’ lists 21opportunities of many kinds that will
certain amount of luck! certainly receive a lot of attention. The second century
In summary—why is this report different from of aeronautics does not seem likely to be dull!
previous publications in this field?:
6. Conclusion
* It relates to the historical progress of aerospace.
* It has a long-term framework for assessment. A very extensive field has been examined in searching
* The What-if study is based on realistic aeronautical for a new aerospace propulsive force. Historical back-
design requirements. ground information, which is admittedly pre-science,
* The morphological study encompasses all previous has been brought into the framework of the Morpho-
work in the field. logical study. This might have been rejected as
insufficiently proven for inclusion in a serious profes-
11
A co-founder of the Elsevier Journal ‘Progress in Aero- sional engineering enquiry. However, the author believes
nautical Sciences’. it is incorrect to exclude such historic evidence provided
Fig. 61. The physics of hovering.
Fig. 62. Evolution of transport energy density.

from matter. Whether we can only use heat engines is

challenged.
Previous research into the domain of macro-aero-
nautics has provided data and long-term methods
enabling the global consequences of any novel engine/
force proposal to be assessed in a reasonably short time.
The What-if engine already described is only the first of
several other types now receiving attention.
In assessing this work, building up from the NASA
BPP and BAE SYSTEMS Project Greenglow, it is
necessary to place it in a time context. My hunch is that
the desired breakthrough will yield to these new,
focussed programmes within a decade or two. This
stage is equivalent to where aeronautics was in the
1890s.
At such a time it is impossible to find scientifically
accurate judgement of the status of this work. One then
has to fall back on historic quotes that illuminate the
scene. Freeman Dyson’s famous remark is relevant
‘‘When the great innovation appears, it will almost
certainly be in a muddled, incomplete and compromis-
ing form. To the discoverer himself it will be only half-
understood; to everyone else it will be a mystery. For
any speculation which does not at first glance look
crazy, there is no hope.’’ [125]. For myself I have coined
the idea of ‘the Christopher Columbus concept’ [114]
which starts with the question ‘Did he fail or succeed in
his venture?’ This was to reach China by sailing
Fig. 63. Future aerospace challenges. westward. He collected sponsorship, an experienced
crew and followed an apparently hopeless quest. He
failed to find China but found America. So, success or
it is placed in an appropriate context. Having said that failure? My judgement; quests, even if apparently
there is very little guidance from this mass of data hopeless, provided they are done professionally, will
towards any preferred direction for research. Since there create unique results.
is little consensus within the published material the In fact, although this study began as an investigation
alternative approach of a What-if study was used to of possible changes to military aircraft, the engines
focus on practical issues that must eventually be met. selected have proved likely to have a far larger impact on
Therefore, alternative but speculative ways of provid- civil transport and spaceflight!
ing aeronautically valuable forces and moments were set In returning to the original objective of military
out and applied to a large number of classical aerospace applications and following the experience gained from
design types to assess whether the assumed values were the work reported here opens up another story—yet to
beneficial. The values arbitrarily selected (although be told.
guided by long experience!) defined a revolutionary
global transport system capable of eliminating current
serious inadequacies such as dependence on fossil fuel, Acknowledgements
global warming, noise, excessive use of landspace and
growing airside congestion. The author gratefully acknowledges the help of Dr.
The successful result of this What-if study enabled a Ron A. Evans, the leader of Project Greenglow and its
new process to be defined ‘project-directed research’. antecedents since 1986, in completing this paper. Many
Others have used the term ‘focussed search’ for this of my ideas have resulted from discussions with him
stage. Having defined engineering quantities of mass, over 5 years, working as consultant to this programme.
volume, energy and force density, these are then set out Thanks also to BAE SYSTEMS for support to my work
as challenges to discover new physics that can achieve and permission to publish this paper for the Journal of
these values. This requires collaboration with non- Aerospace Sciences.
aeronautical scientists in seeking gaps in established I would once again refer to the enormous contribu-
physics and investigating novel ways of deriving energy tions of Dr. Cesare Marchetti of IIASA in a quarter
century of original work into the macro-domains of What Medawar claims for biologists is also true for
energy, transport and human affairs without which this aerodynamicists: we work very close to the ‘‘frontier
author would not have been able to present the evidence between bewilderment and understanding’’. Thus the
quoted here. view that an aerodynamicist is a man of facts and not
of fancies, and that he is primarily a critic and
skeptic, is incomplete, to say the least. To ‘‘stick to
Appendix. Some pertinent quotes from Dietrich the facts’’, or to expose errors of fact, is not our main
K+uchemann [31] occupation; and to prove that pigs cannot fly is not to
devise a machine that does so’’. The aerodynamic
Quote 1 design of aircraft requires, more than anything else,
creative imagination and initiatives in speculations
The skeptic will say:’ It may well be true that this and conjectures followed by persistent thinking up
system of equations is reasonable from a logical comprehensive experiments which provide really
standpoint. But this does not prove that it corre- searching tests of the design concept applied, to
sponds to nature’. You are right, dear skeptic. establish confidence needed before we can let an
Experience alone can decide on truth. Yet we have aircraft take to the air.
achieved something if we have succeeded in for- +
Dietrich Kuchemann in the Aerodynamic Design of
mulating a meaningful and precise equation. The Aircraft’’, 1978, p. 2.
derivation, from the questions, of conclusions which Quote 5
can be confronted with experience will require
painstaking efforts and probably new mathematical Thus we hold with Georg Christoph Lichtenberg
methods. (1742–1799) that ‘‘knowledge does not mean all the
things we happen to know but only those we have
Albert Einstein about the equation of gravity, April thought about enough to know how they hang
1950. together and how they can be applied usefully’’.
Quote 2
Some peculiar features of aeronautical research work

References
and some specialised methods will become apparent,
which have, perhaps, been evolved earlier or on a [1] Allen JE. Global issues affecting aeronautics. Prog
broader basis than in other fields. The resolution of Aerosp Sci 1999;35:413–153.
the main tasks into an extraordinary fine net of [2] Allen JE. Aircraft worked on. Archive 2:3–6.
partial problems is one of these peculiarities. Another [3] Allen JE. List of lectures. Archive 2:7–20.
is the widespread use of abstractions and simulations, [4] Allen JE. Aircraft design lessons from experience. Lecture
of models and analogies. The concept of a model may to BAe Future Systems Group, Farnborough, 27th
be taken quite literally, as in experimental work. But September, 1999.
it may be understood to include also models of [5] Good IJ. The scientist speculates, an anthology of partly
thought and mathematical models of physical occur- baked ideas. London: Heinemann, 1962.
[6] Allen JE. ‘Intolerable shortcomings’ in lecture ‘Aero-
rences, and these have probably a wider and deeper
nautics, Dreams and Reality’, RAeS Main Lecture to the
meaning and importance; usually, it is only through Cambridge Branch, 1972.
their use and through experiments in the mind that [7] Allen JE. Aeronautics and the world’s precious resources,
reasonable designs and actual experiments can be RAeS Spring Symposium, London, May 1974.
undertaken and carried out and those cycles of [8] Cyrano de Bergerac Vials of dew, Cosmic history 1656.
conjectures and refutations initiated and continued, In: Marjorie HN, editor. Voyages to the Moon. New
which characterise all research work. York USA: MacMillan, 1948. p. 143.
[9] La Folie Le Philosophe sans pretention. In: Marjorie HN,
+
Dietrich Kuchemann in the Aerodynamic Design of editor. Voyages to the Moon. New York USA: MacMil-
Aircraft’’, 1978, p. 1. lan, 1948. p. 143.
Quote 3 [10] Restif de la Bretonne. Flying lover and his lady. In:
Nicolson, editor. La Decouverte Australe par un
Homme-Volante. Victorin & Christine, 1781. p. 110.
It is the daring, risky hypothesis, the hypothesis that [11] Aerial fight between a Briton and a German, Scribleriad,
might easily not be true, that gives a special In: Nicolson, editor. Based on 1679 French Smith
confidence if it stands up to critical examination. Besnier. p. 79.
[12] Gibbs Smith CH. Sir George Cayley’s glider design of
Medawar, 1969. 1799. The aeroplane—an historic survey. HMSO: Science
Quote 4 Museum, 1960. p. 189.
[13] Gibbs-Smith CH. Cayley’s gunpowder motor. In: Sir [36] Allen JE. Dangers of the Kriegsspiel. In: High technology
George Cayley’s, Aeronautics 1796–1855. HMSO, 1962. and the RAF, Lecture to the RAF College. Cranwell,
p. 142. December 1986.
[14] Gibbs-Smith CH. Cayley’s full scale glider. In: Sir George [37] Naki!cenovi!c N, et al. Global energy perspectives IIASA
Cayley’s Aeronautics 1796–1855. p. 151. and WEC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
[15] Gibbs-Smith CH. Cayley’s solid of least resistance. In: 1998, ISBN 0 521 64200 0.
Sir George Cayley’s Aeronautics 1796–1855. p. 41. +
[38] Grubler. A technology and global change. IIASA: Cam-
[16] Gibbs-Smith CH. The aeroplane—an historical survey. bridge University Press, 1998, ISBN 0 521 59109 0.
London: Science Museum, HMSO, 1960. +
[39] Grubler A et al. Dynamics of transport and energy
[17] Chanute O. Biplane glider in The aeroplane—a historical systems. history of development and a scenario for the
survey, London: Science Museum, HMSO, 1960. p. 32–3. future. Report RR-93-19, IIASA, Laxenberg, Austria,
[18] Lilienthal O. Gliding experiments in The aeroplane—a 1993.
historical survey. London: Science Museum, HMSO, [40] Nakicenovic N. Global energy perspectives to 2050 and
1960. p. 28–38. beyond. WEC/IIASA Report, 1995.
[19] Lilienthal O. Proceedings of the Third International [41] Marchetti C. On society and nuclear energy. Austria:
Conference on Aerial Navigation, Chicago, USA, 1–4 IIASA, Laxenberg, 1988.
[42] Marchetti C. A simple mathematical model of war events.
August 1893.
Austria: IIASA, Laxenberg, 1982.
[20] Jewkes J, et al. The sources of invention. London:
[43] Verhulst PF. Nouveaux Memoires de l’Academie Royale
MacMillan, 1958.
des Sciences. des Lettres et des Beaux-Arts de Belgique
[21] Byron. Lord quote in Gibbs-Smith CH. In: The aero-
plane—an historical survey. London: Science Museum, 1845;18:1–38.
[44] Pearl R. Studies in human biology. Baltimore, MD:
HMSO, 1960. p. 150.
Williams and Wilkins, 1924.
[22] Tennyson, Lord quote in The aeroplane—a historical
[45] Pearl R. The biology of population growth. New York:
survey. London: Science Museum, HMSO, 1960. p. 150.
Alfred A Knopf, Inc., 1925.
[23] Kelvin, Lord quote in The aeroplane—a historical survey.
[46] Haldane JBS. The mathematical theory of natural and
London: Science Museum, HMSO, 1960. p. 151.
artificial selection. Trans Cambridge Philos Soc
[24] Ziolkowsky KE. Works on rocket technology. NASA
1924;23:19–41.
Technical Translation TT F. 243 November 1965
[47] Volterra L. Lecon sur la theorie mathematique de la lutte
(Originally published by the Publishing House of the pour la vie. Paris: Gauthier-Villars, 1931.
Defence Industry, Moscow, USSR, 1947). [48] Lotka AJ. Elements of mathematical biology. New York:
[25] Marchetti C. Kondratief revisited—after one Kondratief Dover, 1956.
Cycle. IIASA and the Siberian Branch of the USSR [49] Fisher JC, Pry RH. A simple substitution model of
Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics and technological change. Report 70-C-215, General Electric
Industrial Engineering, Novosibirsk, 14–19 March 1988 Company, Research and Development Center, Schenec-
(M-52). tady, New York.
[26] Thurston AP. The future of aerial transport. London: [50] Marchetti C. Looking forward—looking backward. A
British Ministry of Reconstruction, 1919. very simple mathematical model for very complex
[27] Evans RA. A reminder of Faraday’s experiments. In: social systems. Conference at Urbino, IIASA, Italy, June,
University Round Table on Gravitational Research. 1996.
[51] Marchetti C. Stable rules in social and economic
Preston: British Aerospace, FBS 007 March 1990.
behaviour. Austria: IIASA, Laxenberg, 1988.
[28] Penner JE, et al. Aviation and the global atmosphere
[52] Marchetti C. New materials. A phenomenological
special report of the IPCC Working Groups I and III.
exploration of the processes of research, develop-
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, ISBN 0 ment, and market diffusion. Laxenberg, Austria: IIASA,
521 66300 8. 1991.
[29] Sisangia 2500-seat flying boat. B.Eng. (Hons), Student +
[53] Grubler A. Time for a change: on the patterns of
Project, Kingston University, 2001–02. diffusion of innovation. IIASA Report RR-97-3, 1997.
[30] Ashford DM. Global hypersonic rocket airliner project, [54] Goodger EG. Transport fuels technology. Colchester:
RAeS J 1965. Portland Press, Commerce Way Whitehall Industrial
+
[31] Kuchemann D. The aerodynamic design of aircraft. Estate, November 2000, ISBN 0 9520186 2 4.
Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1978, ISBN 0-08-0205 14-3. .
[55] Kuchemann D. An aerodynamicist’s prospect of the
[32] Pesavento P. The psychological and social effects of second century, vol. 122. London: The Royal Aeronau-
isolation on Earth and in space, Quest vol. 8, No. 2 2000. tical Society, Hutchinson & Co. Ltd., 24–5.
Bethesda, MD: Space Publications. [56] Allen JE. Discovery, invention and design. Grantham:
[33] Allen JE. The relevance dodecahedron, Aerospace. Isaac Newton lecture at Kings School, 2002.
J RAeS 1974. [57] Mensch G. Das technologische Patt. Ballinger, Cam-
[34] Allen JE. Aerospace scenarios for the 21st century. Paper bridge, MA: Umschau Verlag, Frankfurt/Main 1975 or
to the Conference ‘Aerospace—A 2020 Vision. London: Stalemate in Technology, 1979 (M-13).
The Royal Aeronautical Society, April 2002. [58] Pyle K. The history of jet lift. BROHP Conference at
[35] Wilson A. War gaming. London: Penguin Books, 1970. Charterhouse School, April 2002.
[59] Bore CL. My road of little boredom research and [83] Podkletnov, Niemen RA. possibility of gravitational
innovation. Kingston upon Thames, Surrey: Kelvedon force shielding by bulk YBa2Cu307x superconductor.
Close. Physica C 1992:203;441–44.
[60] Fozard JW. The Harrier—an engineering commentary. [84] Gunston W. Electrogravitics. AIR Int 2000: 40.
Kingston, Surrey: Hawker Siddeley Aviation, August [85] Freitag W. NASA paper on anti-matter; a new source of
1960. space propulsion. BIS International Space Congress,
[61] Micro-mechanical motor and writing tip. Sci. Am. 1995: Brighton. November 1982.
119. [86] T Patel R. Anti-matter propulsion. B.Eng. (Hons),
[62] Allen JE. Anti-adhesives in ‘The Long-term Future of Student Project, Kingston University, May 2002.
Aerospace’’ Lecture to the Preston Branch of the Royal [87] Evans R. Trying to unravel US research on electro-
Aeronautical Society, March 1997. gravity. British Aerospace Defence, Military Aircraft
[63] Rosenberg B. Pursuing a fuel cell powered E-plane. Report No. BAe-WAT-RP-GEN-17943, August 1995.
Aviation Week 2001:13;59. [88] Good IJ. The scientist speculates, an anthology of partly-
[64] Self-healing materials. Aviation Week Space Technol baked ideas. London: Heinemann, 1962. p. 352.
2002:13;54. [89] Koestler A. The act of creation. London: Hutchinson,
[65] The gravitics situation. London: Aviation Studies (Inter- 1969 ISBN 09 098040 9.
national) Ltd., Special Weapons Study Unit, December [90] Thurston AP. The future of aerial transport. London:
1956. British Ministry of Reconstruction, 1919.
[66] Dimitriou S. On the Biefield–Brown effect. The Uni- [91] Allen JE. Air Staff Targets 396 & 403. In ‘Preliminary
versity of Manchester, 1999. Design of Aerospacecraft’, Lecture to the College of
[67] Alzofon FE. Anti-gravity with present technology:
Aeronautics, Cranfield University, December 1994.
implementation and theoretical foundation. Washington:
[92] Evans RA. BAe—University Round Table on Gravita-
Boeing Aerospace Company Seattle, 1981.
tional Research, NOVOTEL Conference Centre, Preston,
[68] Hill P. Unconventional flying objects—a scientific analy-
sis. Charlottesville, VA: Hampton Roads Publishing Report FBS 007, March 1990.
[93] Hooper RS. P1127 Notes on contentious features,
Company Inc., ISBN 1-57174-027-9.
internal design office note. Kingston: Hawker Siddeley
[69] Warp drive goes here. Sci Am January 2000: 4.
[70] Thorn Kip S. Black holes and time warps: Einstein’s Aviation, 16 September 1958.
outrageous legacy. Picador, 1994, ISBN 0 330 33162 0. [94] Young B. Anti-gravity—the end of aerodynamics?
[71] Allen JE. Flying saucers—the truth lecture to the Leiston Lecture to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,
Radio Club. February 1995. London, October 1991.
[72] Davy C. A visitor from Venus, the observer, Sunday [95] Millis M. Breakthrough propulsion physics research
October 4 1953 (Review of book, Flying Saucers Have program. NASA Technical Memorandum 107381,
Landed, by Leslie & Adamski). 26–30 January 1997.
[73] Cook N. The hunt for zero point. London: Century [96] Propulsion for Space Transportation of the XXIst
Publishers, 2001, ISBN 0 7126 69531. Century. Conference at Versailles, France, 13–17 May
[74] DeWitt DS. New directions for research in the theory of 2002, AAAF and ESA.
gravitation. New Boston, NH: The Gravity Research [97] Hansson A. Advanced physics for space power and
Foundation, 1953. propulsion. Conference at Versailles, France, 13–17 May,
[75] Wittry DB. The possibility of discovering an absorber, 2002, AAAF and ESA.
insulator or reflector for gravity waves, in ‘Essays on [98] Bertolami O, Tajmar M. Gravity control, possible
Gravity, Nine Winning Essays’ 1949–1958. New Boston, influence on space propulsion. ESTEC Contract 15464/
NH: USA, Gravity Research Foundation, 1949. p. 1. 01/NL/SFe, ESA April 2002.
[76] Belifante FJ. On the possibility of discovering reflectors [99] Haisch B, Rueda A, Puthoff HE. Inertia as a zero-point
or absorbers of gravity and the constructing effective field Lorenz force. Phys Rev A 1994;49:678.
sources of gravitational waves, in Essays on Gravity, [100] Alcubierre M. The warp drive: hyperfast travel within
Nine Winning Essays’ 1949–1958. New Boston, NH: general relativity. Classical Quant Gravity 1994;11:
USA, Gravity Research Foundation, 1956. p. 40.
L73–7.
[77] McTaggart L. The field. London: Harper Collins, 2001,
[101] Allen JE. Morphological study of V/STOL aircraft
ISBN 0 7225 3764 6.
designs. AST 396 Second Progress Report. Kingston:
[78] Keel JA. UFOs: Operation Trojan Horse. London:
Hawker Siddeley Aviation, June 1972.
Abacus, 1973, ISBN 0 349 12085 4.
[79] Hyland G. Blue fires. London: Headline Book Publishing, [102] Momenthly A. Fuels of the future. AIAA International
Technical Meeting, May 1982.
2001, ISBN 0 7472 6456 2.
[103] Allen JE. Report to investigate design changes in Military
[80] Wells HG. The first men in the Moon, 1901.
[81] Tucker R. The Dynamics of Tethers, Project Greenglow. Aircraft resulting from the availability of an anti-gravity
Minutes of Progress Meeting at Lancaster University, drive. BAe Report No. BAe/WAT/8P1/REP, January
May 2000, BAE-WRE-RP-RAE-00039. 1998.
[82] Lopez JA. Self-propulsion, a new flying technique. [104] Seyfang G. ‘‘Anti-Gravity’’ effects on air vehicles. British
Cordoba, Argentina: Department of Physics, National Aerospace Memorandum, MAL Warton AJT-HB-
Technological University, 1959. NB1-54.
[105] Allen JE. Incredible Changes (in the Second Century). [122] Allen JE, Bruce J. The future of aeronautics. London:
BAe Report No. BAe/WAT/8P1/REP, January 1998, The Royal Aeronautical Society, Hutchinson & Co. Ltd.,
Appendix I. 1970, ISBN 0-09-100920-0. p. 3.
[106] Airframe and systems description, Boeing 747. Everett [123] Mallnann-Shovel JP. Breaking the code (Alan Turing and
Branch, Renton, Washington: The Boeing Company, Enigma). Ian Allan Publications, January 2000, ISBN 07
Commercial Airplane Division, March 1967, D6-13413. 11 027641.
[107] HS1034 Mach 4 Interceptor/Strike Fighter, Volume II, [124] Singh S. Fermat’s last theorem. Fourth Estate, London,
HSA Report APG/1034/0101, January 1966. 1997, ISBN 1-85702-669-1.
[108] Civil VTOL transport aircraft. Submission to the Ministry [125] Dyson FJ. Quote, Scientific American. September 1958.
of Technology, vol. 2, Fan Lift Aircraft HS.141, Issue 2. p. 80.
Kingston: Hawker Siddeley Aviation, September 1969. [126] Gatland KW, Allen JE. The First Commonwealth
[109] Burns BR. A HOTOL: A multi-role aerospacecraft for Spaceflight Symposium 1959. In: Spaceflight Technology,
Europe. Aerospace, July/August 1987. p. 8. New York: Academic Press, 1960.
[110] Allen JE, et al. Future large aircraft design—the delta [127] Allen JE. Britain’s place in interplanetary exploration. In:
with suction. Aeronaut J Roy Aeronaut Soc 1997. Spaceflight Technology, New York: Academic Press,
[111] Airbus A 3XX Briefing, Airbus Industrie, January 1997. 1960.
[112] Wright PCJ. 600 Seat long range passenger aircraft using [128] Cleaver AV. Electro-gravitics: what it is—or might be.
laminar flow control. M.Sc. thesis, Cranfield University, JBIS 1957;16(2):84–94.
College of Aeronautics, Aerospace Design, August 1996. [129] Penrose R. Gaps in physics. First Meeting of the Novel
[113] Apollo 11 Lunar Landing Mission. Press Kit. NASA, Physics Club, BAE SYSTEMS. Stirling Square, London,
Release No.:69-83 K. 6 July 1969. November 2001.
[114] Allen JE. The Christopher Columbus concept, in ‘The [130] Hansson A. Advanced physics for space power and
Quest for a New Force’. Lecture to BAe Future Systems propulsion. 52nd International Astronautical Congress,
Group, Farnborough, 28th September 1999. p. 53 1–5 October 2001, Toulouse, France.
[115] Vindel M. Project Greenglow: Asteroid Defence Space- [131] Bussard RW. Galactic matter and interstellar flight.
craft. B.Eng. (Hons), Student Project, Kingston Uni- Astronaut Acta 1960;6:197.
versity, May 2001. [132] Puthoff HE, Little SR, Obison M. Engineering the
[116] Robinson T. Impact! Deflecting rogue near-earth objects zero-point field and polarizable vacuum for interstaellar
(NEOs). London: Aerospace International, The Royal flight. First International Workshop In Field Propul-
Aeronautical Society, April 2002. p. 32. sion, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK, January
[117] Penrose R. The emperor’s new mind. Oxford: Oxford 2001.
University Press, 1989, ISBN 0-19-851973-7. [133] Modanese G. Theoretical analysis of a reported weak-
[118] Deutsch D, Lockwood M. The quantum physics of time gravitational-shielding effect. Europhys Lett 1996;35(6):
travel. Sci Am March 1994;50. 413–18.
[119] Kaku M. Hyperspace. A scientific odyssey through [134] Torr D, Li N. Gravitoelectric-electric coupling via
parallel universes, time warps and the 10th dimension. superconductivity. USA Found Phys Lett 1993;6(4).
Oxford: Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-508514-0. [135] Chiao RY. Gravity transducers. Sci Am June 2002;19–20.
[120] Allen JE. World transport to 2100, with & without [136] Chiao RY. Superconductors as transducers and antennas
Greenglow, BAe A-G Note 57, July 2000. for gravitational and electromagnetic radiation. Univer-
[121] Marchetti C. On mobility. Laxenburg: IIASA, May 1993. sity of California at Berkeley, April 2002.

1 s2.0 S0376042102000490 Main

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originaltitel

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

1 s2.0 S0376042102000490 Main

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Progress in Aerospace Sciences 39 (2003) 1–60

Quest for a novel force: a possible revolution in aerospace

1. Introduction The ﬁeld of enquiry of this journal is aerospace

Fig. 1. Evolution of aerial transport.

Fig. 2. Cyrano de Bergerac’s ﬂight.

Fig. 3. Mercury visitor in an electric craft.

Fig. 4. Aerial battle between a Briton and a German.

Fig. 5. Cayley’s gunpowder engine.

Fig. 6. Cayley’s 1852 glider.

Fig. 7. Steps towards spaceﬂight.

Fig. 8. Transport infrastructures in the USA.

Fig. 9. Micro- and macro-aeronautics.

ﬁrst—total global energy use over 150 years has an

Fig. 11. Global energy use since 1850.

Fig. 12. Evolution of global energy modes.

Fig. 13. Efﬁciency of engines: Fisher–Pry transform.

Fig. 14. Annual growth rates.

providing electric power (nuclear, wind, wave or solar)

3.4. Many kinds of novelty

Creating new artefacts, ideas or artwork has bred

In considering the work envisaged within Project

Fig. 18. A century of new aerospace technologies.

Fig. 19. Aeronautical contests.

and virtual reality compelling scenes tend to conﬁrm

Fig. 21. NASA breakthrough propulsion program, 1999.

Fig. 22. Project Greenglow: theory and experiment.

Fig. 23. Project Greenglow roadmap.

Fig. 25. Morpholist.

Fig. 24. Morphoform.

Fig. 26. Morphinvent.

Fig. 28. Morphological sieve.

Fig. 29. Mass-dynamic engine arrangement.

Fig. 30. Inertia engines data (imperial units).

Fig. 31. Inertia engines data (SI units).

1250 tonnes, used, e.g., for water bombing. A Heavy

Fig. 33. Heavy lift transport.

Fig. 34. Heavy lift mass breakdown.

Fig. 35. Data comparison–Boeing 747 and heavy lift.

Fig. 36. City hopper.

Fig. 37. Mach 4 interceptor/strike ﬁghter.

Fig. 38. Regional vtol airliner.

Fig. 39. Hawk derivative.

Fig. 40. A 3YY large broad delta airliner.

Fig. 41. Antipodal megaliner, external view.

Fig. 42. Antipodal megaliner, interior.

Fig. 43. Antipodal megaliner, mass breakdown.

Fig. 44. Mooncraft, side elevation.

Fig. 45. Mooncraft, plan.

doughnut and each radial module which absorb the

Fig. 47. Mooncraft, trajectory.

Fig. 48. Mooncraft propulsion/resupply module.

Fig. 49. Spacetourcraft.

Fig. 50. Lunar excursion timetable.

Fig. 51. Mars ﬂight.

Fig. 52. Global air trafﬁc to 2100.

Fig. 53. Civil aircraft productivity.

Fig. 54. Log10 civil aircraft productivity.

Fig. 55. Categories of mass-dynamic aircraft.

Fig. 56. Mass-dynamic global ﬂeet characteristics.

Fig. 57. Entry of massdynamic drive into global trafﬁc.

Fig. 58. Mass-dynamic road and air reduction of fuel demand.

compromising form. To the discoverer himself it will be

Fig. 60. Domains and relevancies.