ATTITUDE OF INVESTORS AND THE RISK ANALYSIS, COMPARISION

BETWEEN A CURRENCY PAIR AND A COMMODITY

Basic Overview of the Project

In India, based on the interest rate risk and credit risk, investors put their
money in various investment avenues. The required levels of returns
determine their choice of avenue and many times, it is determined by the
other factors involved.

More risk directs to more profits and the potential of taking risks is determined
by the disposable income they’re left. In order to venture out of domestic
market for the investment opportunities, both the budding and evolved
investors look towards Forex and Commodities Market, giving ample room to
invest in other currencies and hedge risks accordingly.

Purpose of the Project

In this project, we will look towards how investors have reacted to the macro
factors while being invested in the Commodities and Forex market and how
their behaviour changes overtime for the past one year. Attitude of investors
as well as their risk taking abilities would be thoroughly discussed between
one of the currency pairs and a commodity. In the Currency Pair, US Dollar &
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will be taken and in the case of commodity, we will
be analysing Gold (XAU/USD) and collect data for the past one year. We
would also be analysing the impact of various fundamental and sentimental
factors.
Forex Market

Forex, also known as foreign exchange, FX or currency trading, is a

decentralized global market where the entire world's currencies trade. The
forex market is the largest, most liquid market in the world with an average
daily trading volume exceeding $5 trillion. All the world's combined stock
markets don't even come close to this.

After the accord at Bretton Woods in 1971, more major currencies were
allowed to float freely against one another. The values of individual currencies
vary, which has given rise to the need for foreign exchange services and
trading.

Commercial and investment banks conduct most of the trading in the forex
markets on behalf of their clients, but there are also speculative opportunities
for trading one currency against another for professional and individual
investors.

Factors like interest rates, trade flows, tourism, economic strength and
geopolitical risk affect supply and demand for currencies, which creates daily
volatility in the forex markets. An opportunity exists to profit from changes that
may increase or reduce one currency's value compared to another. A forecast
that one currency will weaken is essentially the same as assuming that the
other currency in the pair will strengthen because currencies are traded as
pairs.

In this project we would focusing on one of major Currency Pair, i.e., USD/JPY
and study about the trends of the pair for the past one year.

We will also study about the major Commodity Gold, i.e, XAU/USD and draw
comparison on how does its trend differ from the Currency Pair.
 USD/JPY

In order to study about this pair, we need to have a brief knowledge about its
economy as well. Because we have Fundamentals as well as technical
indicators which effect the movement of prices of any currency pair.

Below is the Events date wise for the US Market from 2nd April,2018 to 1st
April, 2019 which are of higher importance and have the potential to move the
market.

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous

Time
Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, April 2, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 59.3 60.1 60.7
Wednesday, April 4, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 58.8 59 59.5
Monday, April 16, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.60% 0.40% -0.10%
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (Mar) 1.354M 1.330M 1.321M
Thursday, April 19, 2018
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) 23.2 20.8 22.3
Monday, April 23, 2018
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Mar) 5.60M 5.55M 5.54M
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Mar) 694K 625K 667K
Thursday, April 26, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) 0.00% 0.50% 0.90%
Friday, April 27, 2018
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.30% 2.00% 2.30%
Monday, April 30, 2018
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.40% 0.60% 2.80%
Tuesday, May 1, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 57.9 58.6 59.3
Thursday, May 3, 2018

19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 56.8 58.1 58.8

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.30% 0.50% 0.40%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.30% 0.40% 0.80%
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (Apr) 1.352M 1.347M 1.377M
Thursday, May 17, 2018
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 34.4 21 23.2
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Apr) 662K 680K 672K
Thursday, May 24, 2018
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Apr) 5.46M 5.56M 5.60M
Friday, May 25, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) 0.90% 0.50% 0.40%
Monday, May 28, 2018
All Day United States - Memorial Day
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.20% 2.30% 2.30%
Thursday, May 31, 2018
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) -1.30% 0.40% 0.60%
Friday, June 1, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) 58.7 58.2 57.9
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) 58.6 57.9 56.8
Thursday, June 14, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.90% 0.50% 0.40%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 0.80% 0.40% 0.40%
Tuesday, June 19, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (May) 1.301M 1.350M 1.364M
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (May) 5.43M 5.52M 5.45M
Thursday, June 21, 2018
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) 19.9 28.9 34.4
Monday, June 25, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (May) 689K 667K 646K
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) -0.30% 0.50% 1.90%
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) -0.50% 1.10% -1.30%
Thursday, June 28, 2018
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.00% 2.20% 2.20%
Monday, July 2, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 60 58.4 58.7
Tuesday, July 3, 2018
United States - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
All Day United States - Independence Day
Thursday, July 5, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 59.1 58.3 58.6
Monday, July 16, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.40% 0.40% 1.40%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.50% 0.50% 1.30%
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (Jun) 1.273M 1.330M 1.301M
Thursday, July 19, 2018
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 25.7 21.6 19.9
Monday, July 23, 2018
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun) 5.38M 5.46M 5.41M
Wednesday, July 25, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Jun) 631K 669K 666K
Thursday, July 26, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) 0.40% 0.50% 0.30%
Friday, July 27, 2018
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 4.10% 4.10% 2.20%
Monday, July 30, 2018
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.90% 0.40% -0.50%
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 58.4 59.4 60
Friday, August 3, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 55.7 58.6 59.1
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.60% 0.40% 0.20%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.50% 0.20% 0.20%
Thursday, August 16, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (Jul) 1.311M 1.310M 1.292M
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) 11.9 21.9 25.7
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Jul) 5.34M 5.44M 5.38M
Thursday, August 23, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Jul) 627K 643K 638K
Friday, August 24, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.50% 0.10%
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 4.20% 4.00% 4.10%
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.70% 0.30% 1.00%
Monday, September 3, 2018
All Day United States - Labor Day USA
Tuesday, September 4, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 60.8 57.6 58.4
 Thursday, September 6, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 58.5 57 55.7
Friday, September 14, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.30% 0.50% 0.90%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.10% 0.40% 0.70%
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (Aug) 1.229M 1.310M 1.311M
Thursday, September 20, 2018
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 22.9 17 11.9
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Aug) 5.34M 5.35M 5.34M
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Aug) 629K 630K 608K
Thursday, September 27, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.10% 0.40% 0.20%
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 4.20% 4.20% 4.20%
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) -1.80% -0.20% -0.80%
Monday, October 1, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 59.5 60.1 60.8
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 61.6 58.1 58.5
Monday, October 15, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.10% 0.40% 0.20%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.10% 0.70% 0.10%
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (Sep) 1.241M 1.278M 1.249M
Thursday, October 18, 2018
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 22.2 19.7 22.9
Friday, October 19, 2018
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Sep) 5.15M 5.30M 5.33M
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Sep) 553K 627K 585K
Thursday, October 25, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) 0.10% 0.50% 0.30%
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.50% -0.10% -1.90%
Friday, October 26, 2018
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 3.50% 3.30% 4.20%
Thursday, November 1, 2018
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 57.5 59 59.5
Monday, November 5, 2018
20:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 60.3 59.3 61.6
Thursday, November 15, 2018
19:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.70% 0.50% -0.10%
19:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 12.9 20.7 22.2
19:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.80% 0.60% -0.10%
 Tuesday, November 20, 2018
19:00 USD Building Permits (Oct) 1.263M 1.260M 1.270M
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
19:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) 0.10% 0.40% -0.60%
20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Oct) 5.22M 5.20M 5.15M
Thursday, November 22, 2018
All Day United States - Thanksgiving Day
Friday, November 23, 2018
United States - Thanksgiving Day - Early close at 13:00
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
19:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 3.50% 3.60% 3.50%
20:30 USD New Home Sales (Oct) 544K 583K 597K
Thursday, November 29, 2018
20:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) -2.60% 0.80% 0.70%
Monday, December 3, 2018
20:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 58.8 57.6 57.7
Thursday, December 6, 2018
20:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 60.7 59.2 60.3
Friday, December 14, 2018
19:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 0.20% 1.00%
19:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 0.10% 1.10%
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
19:00 USD Building Permits (Nov) 1.328M 1.259M 1.265M
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov) 5.32M 5.20M 5.22M
Thursday, December 20, 2018
19:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 9.4 15.6 12.9
Friday, December 21, 2018
19:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov) -0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
19:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 3.40% 3.50% 3.50%
Monday, December 24, 2018
United States - Christmas Eve - Early close at 13:00
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
All Day United States - Christmas
Friday, December 28, 2018
20:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.70% 0.70% -2.60%
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
All Day United States - New Year's Day
Thursday, January 3, 2019
20:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 54.3 57.7 58.8
Monday, January 7, 2019
20:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 57.6 59.6 60.7
Thursday, January 17, 2019
19:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 17 9.7 9.1
 Monday, January 21, 2019
All Day United States - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Dec) 4.99M 5.25M 5.33M
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
20:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) -2.20% 0.80% -0.90%
Thursday, January 31, 2019
20:30 USD New Home Sales (Nov) 657K 560K 562K
Friday, February 1, 2019
20:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 56.6 54.2 54.3
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
20:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 56.7 57.2 58
Thursday, February 14, 2019
19:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -1.80% 0.00% 0.20%
19:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) -1.20% 0.10% 0.10%
Monday, February 18, 2019
All Day United States - Washington's Birthday
Thursday, February 21, 2019
19:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.10% 0.20% -0.20%
19:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) -4.1 15.6 17
20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Jan) 4.94M 5.01M 5.00M
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
19:00 USD Building Permits (Dec) 1.326M 1.290M 1.322M
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
20:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) 4.60% 0.80% -2.30%
Thursday, February 28, 2019
19:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.60% 2.60% 3.40%
Friday, March 1, 2019
20:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 54.2 55.5 56.6
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
20:30 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 59.7 57.3 56.7
20:30 USD New Home Sales (Dec) 621K 600K 599K
Friday, March 8, 2019
19:00 USD Building Permits (Jan) 1.345M 1.289M 1.326M
Monday, March 11, 2019
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.90% 0.40% -2.10%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.20% 0.00% -1.60%
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
Thursday, March 14, 2019
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Jan) 607K 622K 652K
Thursday, March 21, 2019
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) 13.7 4.6 -4.1
 Friday, March 22, 2019
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Feb) 5.51M 5.10M 4.93M
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
18:00 USD Building Permits (Feb) 1.296M 1.320M 1.317M
Thursday, March 28, 2019
18:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.20% 2.40% 2.60%
19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) -1.00% 0.10% 4.30%
Friday, March 29, 2019
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Feb) 667K 620K 636K
Monday, April 1, 2019
-
USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.40% 1.40%
18:00 0.40%
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.20% 0.30% 0.70%
19:30 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 55.3 54.5 54.2