Alberta’s Tourism Vision 2020

February 2004
 Trends follow a
predictable pattern
 Travel Trends
• Important trend in North America and
Europe during the last 10-15 years has been
a substantial growth in the demand for short
holidays, having an effect at the local and
regional level.
 Travel Trends
• Tourism is still mostly contained to developed
countries.
• North America to and from Europe accounts for
79% of all travelers and 78% of the tourism
receipts.
• Japan is also a major recipient and generator.
• Those countries that show economic growth will
most likely be the ones to generate and benefit
from tourism.
 Travel Trends
• Travel currently to developing countries is
not growing because of political instability,
medical concerns, poor facilities and
inadequate levels of service.
• Also, and most importantly, are inadequate
distribution channels.
• It is not easy to get to these areas of the
world and is expensive.
 Mega-trends
• Forces that affect almost everyone in the
world. Individually no one can control,
influence or manage a mega-trend. Mega-
trends can only be dealt with through
collective action.
– Population and demographic shifts
– Globalization
– Democratization
 Population Growth
• The world’s population is expected to be nearly 8
billion by 2025
• Developed countries are not growing (actually
some are declining), but growth in developing
countries is making up for it = net world
population growth
• For developed countries this means that the cohort
of 60+ will outnumber the younger cohorts
 Population Growth
• In countries with positive population growth
rates, the population tends to be young and
uneducated and life expectancy is much
younger than developed countries
– Impact on future economic development,
education and health concerns, political
instability, and concerns about the future
potential of these countries
 Population Growth
• With an aging population in developed countries,
we will see a shift in travel patterns. This group
will be:
– Nearing retirement or taking early or semi-retirement
– They have the disposable income and time to travel
– Their needs and interests however are very different
– They will travel internationally for longer durations
– These trips will be to developing countries with the
exception that trips to Canada and the US will also
increase
 Population Growth
• With the increase in “generation gap”,
multiple niche markets will exist with
different needs, interests, and motivations
– There will be an opportunity to market directly
to these niche markets via the Internet
– Product and Experiential differentiation will
become increasingly important for jurisdictions
 Population Growth in Alberta
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 Democratization
• The world has changed considerably over
the past 50 years, power has shifted
globally. And in areas of the world where
political unrest remains, power will
continue to shift over time
• Equality has altered cultures and nations
– E.g. woman in the workplace (see family
section)
 Values
• Value systems have been changing especially in
developed countries
• As awareness of the world widens the tendency
will be for values and ideas to converge.
• North American and European values have
already been noted to be converging over the past
15 years.
• Cultural experiences, learning and education, and
visual stimulation will all be a part of the overall
experiences that people will seek when travelling
both domestically and internationally.
 Values
• For developing countries however, changing
values may have a counter-effect of increased
rebellion against “western culture and values”
• These countries want to retain their own culture,
history and diversity
• The impact of superpowers and increased
democratization globally could have impact on
further conflict and terrorist activity

• Michael Adam’s new
book Fire and Ice “reveals
that Canada and the
United States are not
coming together, but are
diverging in significant
ways.
• From the vehicles we buy
to the deference we pay to
authority, Canadians
prove to be firmly separate
in their attitudes and
opinions.”
Fire and Ice-
Michael Adams
• US states that border
Canada show the most
similarity.
• The further South you go
the more divergent the
values
• “As the United States
grows ever more dominant
on the world stage, how
can we hope to hold on to
our national identity?”
 Globalization
• Individual countries will battle to maintain
their cultures as the world becomes more
and more interdependent
• Knowledge and awareness of global issues
will increase the desire to travel
internationally especially in the younger
generations and older generations as they
have the time to travel
 Communication Technology
• Communication technology especially with the
Internet has created a global village. Its impact is
not fully understood even today.
• The generation today is “connected” to all ends of
the world, seeing events live, and as a result have
a much better understanding of the world and the
impact of specific events
• To some extent the ability to “speak” to people via
the Internet will create a truly global village
• An increased interest in cultural tourism and travel
will increase over the next decade
 Work and Family
• The workplace has changed - with
communications and technology improving
it will continue to change
– Flexible work schedules, telecommuting, the
home office, part-time workers, etc
• More flexibility in when they take time off
– Importance of work-life balance
– Importance of leisure and family time
 Work and Family
• Most families now have two workers
• Time at work is time away from the family
• Time at work adds stress on family and
marriage
• People need to relieve the stress and look
for ways in which to do that
– Importance of leisure, recreation and time
“away” with family and friends
 Work and Family
• Global competition will act as a brake
against more leisure time- trade off between
being competitive at work and taking time
off
 Work and Family
• Development of higher incomes but less free time
will change the way holidays are taken
– Competition for time
– Growing importance of time with family and friends
• VFR will continue to be an important aspect of travel
• Holidays will tend to be shorter, more frequent
and include more intense forms of recreation
• People will stay closer to home- enjoy their
purchases of boats, trailers and cottages
With a healthier balance between work and play,
people are actually more productive while on the job,
which enables them to put in more quality work time
in less hours, leaving more time for leisure…

The LTA study revealed that about a third of those

polled (32 percent) say they postpone fun because
they feel guilty when they are not doing something
they believe is productive. Yet seven out of 10 say
they simply need more fun in their lives.
• Leisure Time Distortion Study
 Comparison by Age
Families
• Shorter, more frequent
trips
• Intraregional and domestic
• Stay closer to home
• Escaping the daily routine
and Reconnecting with
family
Older Group
• Long-haul, longer
duration trips
• International and
intraregional
• To developing or exotic
locations
• Wish fulfillment and
cultural and learning
opportunities
 Travel Participation Rate
• Maximum is 100%, but typically it is 75-85%
because some people are sick, don’t have time or
money, etc.
• If participation approaches that level than growth
in holiday volume will level off. Therefore,
participation can’t be a driving force for growth in
travel demand
• Studies have indicated that there is a reduction in
free time in developed countries worldwide and
therefore the participation rate might be on the
lower limit (75%)
 Physically active vs. passive
• The fastest growing activities are: bird watching,
hiking, backpacking, and camping
• Decreased participation in hunting, horse riding
and fishing
• Increased participation in technology-drive
adventure activities such as skiing/snowboarding,
canoeing/kayaking, and cycling
• Moderate growth in family-oriented activities such
as camping and swimming
• Growth trend of number, size and diversity of
festivals will continue
 Physically active vs. passive
• Travellers are going in search of exotic,
unfamiliar, and unpredictable situations and
destinations
– Getting them out of the daily routine
• Travellers are more interested in improving
themselves intellectually, emotionally and
physically
• Growth in cultural tourism demand, stimulated by
higher levels of education and a thirst for
knowledge and personal development
 Health
• The importance of health and hygiene within
countries and resorts has recently been
highlighted. Outbreaks of disease tend to have a
temporary or short-term impact on tourists
traveling to worldwide destinations
• With more international travel, the exposure of
new viruses and “bugs” to citizens, both incoming
and local, is inevitable
– Further health crisis will continue in the future
 Impact
• The long-term impact of health concerns is
not known
– World Health Organization is growing in
importance, awareness, and power
• Will it become an issue of national security?
– Will we become desensitized to these issues?
– Will it become a common factor for tourism?
– What will be next health crisis?
 Lawsuit over SARS
• Toronto nurse sues for $600 million over SARS
– Claims authorities were more interested in tourism than
safety
– Claims defendants eased infection-control procedures at
hospitals too early while concentrating on lifting a
World Health Organization (WHO) travel advisory that
recommended against visiting Toronto.
– This lapse allowed the deadly disease to resume its
spread
• Potential longer term impact if lawsuit is
successful. Stricter control and guidelines will be
enforced. Public safety vs. economic benefit
• Potential to tarnish “reputation of tourism”
 War and Terrorism
• A major war or terrorist action gives an
unexpected or sudden shock to travel
demand, with short and long term effects
throughout a large influence zone
– E.g. SARS, War in Iraq, coupled with the
continued economic downturn in the US
economy with have a longer term impact on
travel demand (interaction effect)
 Impact
• Ethnic profiling
• Border issues- entry and exit
• Issue of Foreign policy
• Issue for citizens of ethnicity
– i.e. racial profiling of Muslims and people of Middle
Eastern decent after 9/11 and the War in Iraq
– What does this do to North American citizens of
Middle Eastern decent?
 Border Restrictions
• Border entry into the US: Pictures and finger-
printing of entries except for certain countries
• Similar entry procedures being developed for non-
European citizens entering the European Union
(EU)
• Fingerprinting travelers is becoming more
prevalent in various airports worldwide.
– What impact will tightening borders and entry
procedures have on international travel?
 Forecasts

What does the future look like?

 Forecasts for Tourism
• Global Forecasts
• Americas Forecasts
• Canada Forecasts
• Alberta (estimates) based on Canada
Forecasts
– Source: World Tourism Organization, Tourism
Vision 2020
 Tourism 2020 Vision
• Tourism 2020 Vision – Americas, World
Tourism Organization, 2000
• Note: Even with the downshift in tourism
demand in 2001, 2002, and 2003, the WTO
feels that over the long term the forecast
will hold.
 Global Forecast
• International arrivals expected to be 1.56 billion, annual
growth rate of 4.1%
• Long haul travel is expected to grow faster than
intraregional
• Tourism is expected to grow at around 4-5% each year
globally. This is expected to be relatively constant for the
foreseeable future.
• Receipts continue to show even more impressive gains.
• Top receiving regions: Europe, East Asia/Pacific,
Americas
 Americas Forecast
• Note: “Americas” includes North, Central and South
America
• International tourist arrivals in the Americas are forecasted
to be 282.3 million in 2020.
• This is an annual growth rate of 3.9% over the period
1995-2020, which is below the global average of 4.1%.
• As a result the market share will decrease to 18.1% by
2020.
• Long haul travel to the Americas will grow at a faster pace
than intraregional travel. In 2020, the ratio of intraregional:
long haul is expected to be 62:38. (In 1995 it was 77:23)
 Americas Forecast
1985 1990 1995 2000 (f) 2010 (f) 2020 (f)

Total Americas 64.3 92.8 108.9 130.2 190.4 282.3

Africa 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9

Americas 53.8 71.7 78.9 92.8 122.9 159.9

(intraregional)

East Asia/Pacific 2.8 5.9 8.5 8.8 18.1 40.0

Europe 5.9 11.6 15.9 21.3 38.3 65.5

Middle East 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5

South Asia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6

Not specified 1.2 3.0 4.9 6.5 9.7 14.9

 Canada Forecast
Actual Forecast Market Share Average
Annual
Growth

1995 2010 2020 1995 2020 1995-2020

Total Americas 108.9 190.4 282.3 100 100 3.9

North 80.5 131.9 192.0 73.9 68.0 3.5

USA 43.3 72.8 102.4 39.8 36.3 3.5

Canada 16.9 26.5 40.6 15.5 14.4 3.6

Mexico 20.2 32.5 48.9 18.6 17.3 3.6

 WTO Tourism 2020 Vision:
Forecast of Tourist Arrivals in Canada
by Main Markets
Origin Market Actual 1995 Forecast Forecast Growth Rate
2010 2020 1995-2020
United States 13,005,200 18,798,624 26,503,355 2.9

United Kingdom 640,500 1,608,957 3,165,063 6.6

Japan 589,300 872,308 1,420,898 3.6

France 430,200 622,835 921,948 3.1

Germany 420,800 565,520 837,108 2.8

Hong Kong (China) 217,100 290,485 473,169 3.2

Australia 141,600 273,942 490,588 5.1

Korea 112,500 269,613 530,369 6.4

Netherlands 99,500 216,893 388,422 5.6

Taiwan (P.C.) 98,000 309,296 608,433 7.6

Other 1,177,400 2,685,023 5,281,846 6.2

Total 16,932,100 26,513,495 40,621,198 3.6

Visitation- person visits

 Alberta Tourism
Revenue Forecast
2003
2002 Estimate %Change 2010Outloo%Change 2015Outlook%Change 2020Outlook%Change

Alberta $2,889 $2,675 (7.4) $3,374 4.5 $4,324 2.5 $5,360 2

Canada $1,192 $1,089 (8.6) $1,416 5.5 $1,851 4.5 $2,262 2

United States $656 $616 (6.1) $818 5 $947 -2 $1,152 3

Europe $364 $339 (6.9) $438 4.5 $546 -1 $670 3

Asia-Pacific $308 $262 (14.9) $344 -3 $436 3 $530 3

Other Overseas $39 $37 (5.1) $44 5 $46 3 $62 8

Total $5,448 $5,018 (7.9) $6,434 4.3 $8,150 2.2 $10,036 2.3
Other Jurisdictions

What are they doing?

 Britain- United Kingdom
The mission of British Tourism Authority (BTA)
is sustainable tourism growth that contributes to
Government wider goals for sustainable
development.

“Sustainable tourism meets the needs of present

tourists and host regions while protecting and
enhancing opportunities for the future.” WTO
 Britain- United Kingdom
Key Strategies
• Ensure visitors return and recommend
– through increased training in the industry improving the
standards of products and services
– maximize incremental leisure travel from business
stemming travel
• Sustain and increase levels of tourism growth
– tourism is seen in all strategies as a key component of
national economic growth and of regeneration in
regions where traditional industries are in decline.
 Britain- United Kingdom
Key Strategies
• Maximize the benefits of tourism locally
– away from “honeypot” sites
• Encourage the use of public transport
– to solve the problems of congestion and increase visitor
satisfaction
• Increase the seasonal spread of tourism
– reduce staff turn over through training
 Western Australia (WA)
The mission of the Western Australian Tourism
Commission is to accelerate the sustainable
growth of tourism for the long term benefit of
Western Australia

Through four key strategies that support six

common objectives.
 Western Australia (WA)
Key Strategies
• Event and Business Tourism Strategy
– maximize impact of national and international events
for WA, grow regional and business tourism
– develop “iconic” events to give WA a unique identity
• Industry Development and Visitor Servicing
Strategy
– through traditional and on-line services and
partnerships enhance visitor experience in WA
– through product-focused partnerships develop nature
based tourism and WA “iconic” experiences
 Western Australia (WA)
Key Strategies
• Marketing and Communication Strategy
– focuses on 10 international markets, Australian
interstate market and the intrastate market
– through partnerships and media, grow year-round
tourism. Specifically, focus on:
• the international student market,
• one-on-one marketing, and
• give responsibility for intrastate marketing to the Regional
Tourism Organizations
 Western Australia (WA)
Key Strategies
• Pathways Forward: Strategic Plan 2003-2008
– Grow WA tourism faster than the national average
– Increase recognition of WA “iconic” experiences
– Enhance visitor experience in WA
– Grow regional tourism through partnerships and local
empowerment
– Make WA a natural choice for tourism investment
– Achieve recognition for the tourism industry as a
leading economic contributor to the State
 Ontario
The mission of the Ontario Tourism
Marketing Partnership Corporation
(OTMPC) is to:
grow Ontario’s tourism sector year-round by
stimulating increased consumer spending and visits and
by generating greater partnership participation.
 Ontario
Key Strategies
• Develop experience-based tourism vs.
activity/product based
– focus on promoting emotional experiences associated
with travel in Ontario and building a strong distinctive
Ontario brand image
• Publications strategy
– to support the new experience-based marketing strategy
and generate year-round demand for travel
 Ontario
Key Strategies
• Internet and E-marketing Strategy
– to capitalize on the ever-increasing consumer
use of the internet for trip planning and
bookings
– and to support the ‘Ontario’ brand
• Northern Marketing Strategy
– to build partnerships in Northern Ontario
 Ontario
Key Strategies
• Meetings, Conventions and Incentive Travel
Strategy (MC&IT)
– to reclaim Ontario’s position as a location of choice for
major conventions and
– to maximize incremental leisure travel stemming from
the business travel
 British Columbia
The mission of the Tourism British Columbia is to
ensure quality visitor experiences that grow the
success of British Columbia’s tourism industry.

The Tourism Branch of the Ministry of Small Business and

Economic development is working in partnership with
Tourism BC to develop a Provincial Tourism Strategy that
will provide a framework for driving and implementing key
provincial tourism deliverables.
 British Columbia
Key Strategies
• Creation of jobs in the tourism industry and
training
• Maximize the impact of Vancouver hosting the
2010 Olympic and Paralympics Winter Games
• Incorporate technology that connects British
Columbia tourism products and services with
consumers efficiently
 What does this mean?

Where are the opportunities for

Alberta’s tourism industry in the
future?
 Psychographic Markets
• Outdoor adventure
– Contests, events, challenging and new adventures
– Typically outdoors
• Family Time- Relax
– Time to be together, out of the daily routine, peace
– Camping, hiking, backpacking, bird watching
• Culture and Learning
– Museums, art galleries, cultural events and attractions
– Immersion into different cultures
• Seclusion
– Looking for peace and quiet
 Outdoor Adventure
• The outdoor experience is still a major attraction of
domestic and international tourists
• This segment is focused on new challenges, it is an
accomplishment when finished.
• Major events and programs that provide new challenges to
participants both during the event – typically and after
• Public support and programs are needed. Industry can
develop products (e.g. guided tours, rentals, packages, etc.)
around it - event lives on longer
 Relax and Recharge
• As time limitations increase, especially in domestic markets, this
segment will be looking for opportunities to travel shorter
distances while still being able to participate in activities and re-
connect with family.
• Want to stay close to home as they feel safer and more
comfortable.
• Need family activities for the Alberta market from the Calgary-
Edmonton corridor to other parts of the province.
• Will stay away from the Rocky Mountain corridor if other
opportunities exist because of cost and capacity factors.
• These families enjoy camping, hiking, museums and other
activities for the kids. Need activities for everyone in the family.
• Like packages and trails- decreases planning time and they are
budget conscious- like itineraries.
• Need to improve and maintain local attractions.
 Culture and Learning
• Both domestic and international markets, with emphasis on
the international markets are looking for travel
opportunities where they can learn about the history and
culture.
• The overall experience should be specific to the region.
They are looking for a new experience. e.g. Canadian
Badlands with Aboriginal tourism components.
• Markets like China will be looking for tours that offer this
type of component while being active. i.e. where they can
get out and talk to people and learn hands-on.
• Need to maintain museums, historic sites, and other
cultural attractions in the province
• Tours, trails, and information should have the local history,
cultural attractions, and opportunities for interaction
 Seclusion
• In the domestic market especially the near-in markets, there is a
segment that will be looking to “get away” from all the
distractions.
• They will want to get away regularly on weekends and will want
to stay close to home.
• With limited down-time from work and increasing family
responsibilities, they will be looking for new places to go. This
is especially true as the Rocky Mountain region reaches
capacity.
• This segment likes the idea of a cabin near a lake where they
can fish; they don’t need many amenities.
• Opportunity in regions of the province where some public
infrastructure exists or can be built- where they can enjoy the
outdoors, the peace and quiet, and some amenities close by.