Profit Model

Unit Cost
Data Value Probability
$ 400.00 0.20
Unit Price $ 1,000.00 $ 600.00 0.40
Unit Cost $ 700.00 $ 700.00 0.25
Fixed Cost $ 50,000.00 $ 800.00 0.15
Demand 140

Model

Unit Price $1,000.00

Quantity Sold 140
Revenue $140,000

Unit Cost $700.00

Quantity Produced 150
Variable Cost $105,000.00
Fixed Cost $50,000.00

Profit -$15,000.00

Expected Profit $ (4,300.00) when Qty is 120

$ (1,600.00) 140
$ (8,900.00) 160

Not a good investment

 Demand Fixed Costs
Value Probability Value Probability
120 0.25 $ 45,000.00 0.20
140 0.50 $ 50,000.00 0.50
160 0.25 $ 55,000.00 0.30
 Weekly Price $ 900.00

MEAN S.D.
Operating Costs $ 24,535.25 $ 25,000.00 $ 500.00

MIN MOST LIKELY MAX

Number of Rooms 42.00 32 38 50

TOTAL REVENUE $ 37,800.00

PROFIT $ 13,264.75

Profit > 0 100.00%

Profit > 15K 11.60%
Profit < 5K 3.30%
 MEAN S.D.
CROWD SIZE 2547 3000 400 people

Average Concessions Expenditure $ 15.54 $ 15.00 $ 3.00 per person

Fixed Cost $ 10,000.00

Ticket Price $ 10.00 per person

REVENUE FROM TICKETS $ 25,470.00

CONCESSION SALES $ 39,577.88

PROFIT PERCENTAGE 80%

BAND PROFIT $ 42,038.31

Mean Profit $ 49,978.00

Min Profit $ 16,118.00
Max Profit $ 96,367.00
P(Positive Profit) 100%

S.D. Profit $ 10,889.00

95% CI Upper Limit $ 50,279.83

95% CI Lower Limit $ 49,676.17
 Years 1 2 3 4 5
Cash Flow $ 7,838.44 $ 7,948.78 $ 8,087.24 $ 8,108.58 $ 8,019.69

Initial Investment $ 30,000.00 Discount Rate 8%

NPV $ 1,910.64

Not Very Risky!

Mean S.D.
$ 8,000.00 $ 500.00
 Years 1 2 3
Sales Volume 100,000.00 102,086.58 114,403.96
Growth Rate 2.09% 12.07%

Selling Price $ 10.00 $ 10.49 $ 10.95

Unit Cost $ 3.00 $ 3.12 $ 3.26

Increase % 3.97% 4.55%

Fixed Cost $ 200,000.00 $ 225,732.09 $ 247,419.81

Increase % 12.87% 9.61%

Revenue $ 1,000,000.00 $ 1,071,138.41 $ 1,252,733.94

Costs $ 500,000.00 $ 544,162.09 $ 620,513.81
Profits $ 500,000.00 $ 526,976.32 $ 632,220.13

TOTAL PROFIT $ 1,659,196.44

Mean 7% S.D. 4%

Mean $ 0.50 S.D. $ 0.05

Mean 5% S.D. 2%

Mean 10% S.D. 3%

Appointments Taken 150 patients per week

MIN MAX
Demand 132 110 160

MIN MAX
No Show Rate 0.00% 10% 20%

Capacity 125 patients per week

Pre-screen Revenue $ 300.00

Overbooking Cost $ 125.00

SCHEDULED 132
SHOW UP 132
PRE-SCREENED 110
OVERBOOKED 7

REVENUES $ 33,000.00
COSTS $ -
NET REVENUE $ 33,000.00
for 133

for 140

for 150
 Collection % 35%
Var Cost % 12%

GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE

Min 5% $ 150,000.00 Mean 5%
Most Likely 8% $ 10,000.00 S.D. 7%
Max 9%

Patients Served Average Billing Collected Amount Variable Costs Fixed Costs
Year 1 1,650.76 $ 146,296 $ 51,204 $ 17,556 $ 20,000,000
Year 2 1,766.80 $ 158,986 $ 55,645 $ 19,078 $ 21,395,038
Year 3 1,867.04 $ 146,755 $ 51,364 $ 17,611 $ 22,551,947

NPV $103,995,755 7% Discount Rate

Min
Max

TOTAL COLLECTED TOTAL COSTS TOTAL PROFIT

$ 84,524,983 $ 48,979,994 $ 35,544,989
$ 98,313,945 $ 55,102,677 $ 43,211,268
$ 95,899,549 $ 55,431,792 $ 40,467,757
Retirement Contribution (% of salary) 8%
Employer Match 35%
Annual Salary Increase 5%
Annual ROI 7%

Employee
AGE Salary Contribution
22 $ 50,000.00 $ 4,000.00
23 $ 52,330.11 $ 4,186.41
24 $ 54,768.81 $ 4,381.50
25 $ 57,321.16 $ 4,585.69
26 $ 59,992.45 $ 4,799.40
27 $ 62,788.24 $ 5,023.06
28 $ 65,714.31 $ 5,257.14
29 $ 68,776.74 $ 5,502.14
30 $ 71,981.89 $ 5,758.55
31 $ 75,336.41 $ 6,026.91
32 $ 78,847.25 $ 6,307.78
33 $ 82,521.71 $ 6,601.74
34 $ 86,367.41 $ 6,909.39
35 $ 90,392.32 $ 7,231.39
36 $ 94,604.81 $ 7,568.38
37 $ 99,013.60 $ 7,921.09
38 $ 103,627.86 $ 8,290.23
39 $ 108,457.15 $ 8,676.57
40 $ 113,511.49 $ 9,080.92
41 $ 118,801.38 $ 9,504.11
42 $ 124,337.79 $ 9,947.02
43 $ 130,132.21 $ 10,410.58
44 $ 136,196.66 $ 10,895.73
45 $ 142,543.73 $ 11,403.50
46 $ 149,186.59 $ 11,934.93
47 $ 156,139.02 $ 12,491.12
48 $ 163,415.44 $ 13,073.24
49 $ 171,030.97 $ 13,682.48
50 $ 179,001.39 $ 14,320.11
Min Most Likely Max
1% 3% 5%
5% 8% 9%

Employer
Contribution Balance
$ 1,400.00 $ 5,400.00
$ 1,465.24 $ 11,449.29
$ 1,533.53 $ 18,207.42
$ 1,604.99 $ 25,738.84
$ 1,679.79 $ 34,113.36
$ 1,758.07 $ 43,406.50
$ 1,840.00 $ 53,699.97
$ 1,925.75 $ 65,082.16
$ 2,015.49 $ 77,648.66
$ 2,109.42 $ 91,502.82
$ 2,207.72 $ 106,756.32
$ 2,310.61 $ 123,529.88
$ 2,418.29 $ 141,953.94
$ 2,530.99 $ 162,169.38
$ 2,648.93 $ 184,328.37
$ 2,772.38 $ 208,595.23
$ 2,901.58 $ 235,147.38
$ 3,036.80 $ 264,176.31
$ 3,178.32 $ 295,888.72
$ 3,326.44 $ 330,507.64
$ 3,481.46 $ 368,273.72
$ 3,643.70 $ 409,446.59
$ 3,813.51 $ 454,306.27
$ 3,991.22 $ 503,154.76
$ 4,177.22 $ 556,317.74
$ 4,371.89 $ 614,146.35
$ 4,575.63 $ 677,019.14
$ 4,788.87 $ 745,344.18
$ 5,012.04 $ 819,561.27
Retirement Contribution (% of salary) 8%
Employer Match 35%
Annual Salary Increase
Annual ROI

AGE Salary Salary Increase

22 $ 50,000.00 #NAME?
23 $ 51,340.98 #NAME?
24 #NAME? #NAME?
25 #NAME? #NAME?
26 #NAME? #NAME?
27 #NAME? #NAME?
28 #NAME? #NAME?
29 #NAME? #NAME?
30 $ 61,032.73 #NAME?
31 #NAME? #NAME?
32 #NAME? #NAME?
33 #NAME? #NAME?
34 #NAME? #NAME?
35 #NAME? #NAME?
36 #NAME? #NAME?
37 #NAME? #NAME?
38 #NAME? #NAME?
39 #NAME? #NAME?
40 #NAME? #NAME?
41 #NAME? #NAME?
42 #NAME? #NAME?
43 #NAME? #NAME?
44 #NAME? #NAME?
45 #NAME? #NAME?
46 #NAME? #NAME?
47 #NAME? #NAME?
48 #NAME? #NAME?
49 #NAME? #NAME?
50 #NAME? #NAME?
 Min Most Likely Max
1% 3% 5%
5% 8% 9%

Employee Employer
Contribution Contribution Balance ROI
$ 4,000.00 $ 1,400.00 $ 5,400.00 #NAME?
$ 4,107.28 $ 1,437.55 $ 11,409.85 #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
$ 4,882.62 $ 1,708.92 #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? $ 648,796.33 #NAME?
Number of Offers 40 students
Acceptance % 70% could use uniform distribution for acceptance rate and

Scholarship Amount $ 25,000.00 per student

Accepted 28 scholarships
Available 20 scholarships

Extra Funds Needed $ 200,000.00

or acceptance rate and create model accordingly
 Number of Applications 30000
Cost Per Application $ 20.00

Approval Rate 60.00%

Total Approved 18000

Maintenance Cost $ 10.00

Avg. Customer Charge $ 2,000.00

Total Customer Charge $ 36,000,000.00

Customers paying on time 15300 85%

Customers incurring finance charges 2700

Finance Charge Percentage 3.50%

Percentage of Income from Fees 7.00% of total charges

Losses due to charge offs 5.00% of total charges

COSTS
Total Application Costs $ 600,000.00
Total Maintenance Costs $ 180,000.00
Total Losses $ 1,800,000.00

INCOME
Total Finance Charges $ 189,000.00
Total Income From Fees $ 2,520,000.00

PROFIT $ 129,000.00
Percentage
 Mean
Number of Applications 23989 30000
Cost Per Application $ 20.00
Min
Approval Rate 57.34% 50%
Total Approved 13756
Mean
Maintenance Cost $ 10.00 $ 10.00

Avg. Customer Charge $ 1,667.00 $ 2,000.00

Total Customer Charge $ 22,931,946.65

Customers paying on time 11693 85%

Customers incurring finance charges 2063

Min
Finance Charge Percentage 3.95% 3%

Min
Percentage of Income from Fees 6.91% of total charges 6.80%

Min
Losses due to charge offs 4.81% of total charges 4.60%

COSTS
Total Application Costs $ 479,780.00
Total Maintenance Costs $ 137,564.17
Total Losses $ 1,103,919.84

INCOME
Total Finance Charges $ 135,884.87
Total Income From Fees $ 1,583,897.81

PROFIT $ (1,481.33)
S.D.
4000

Max
70%

S.D.
$ 1.50

$ 250.00

Percentage

Max
4%

Max
7.20%

Max
5.40%