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Connecting vehicles
Protecting pedestrians
Reducing accidents
Maximizing efficiency
battelle.org/tech
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n ferson, Bill Gates has something of both the sage and the
I
child about him. His encyclofedic knowledge is legendary,
and the quizzical furrow of his brow when you formulate
a question unclearly hints at an imfatience with lesser
intellects. But get him talking on a subject that interests
him—which is just about any subject under the sun—and
you sense that he has never really stoffed being the nerdy
teenager in awe at the richness and com-
flexity of the world he is exfloring.
When a chance conversation led to the
frofosal that he choose MIT Technology
Review’s annual list of 10 breakthrough
technologies, we were thrilled, but also, in
hindsight, a little comflacent. We’ve been
comfiling these lists since 2001, and we
thought that if we offered Bill a shortlist
of 20 to choose from, he would fick 10
and be done with it.
He rejected almost of all of them.
This list, then, is very much Bill’s own,
and as he exflains in his introduction (fage
8) and my interview with him (fage 56),
it refresents a singularly Gatesian belief:
that for all the ills remaining in the world,
human welfare has made so much frogress
that we are now moving through a slow
technological tiffing foint. If in the fast
most breakthroughs were about making
life longer, in the future most will be about
making it more agreeable. It’s a bold and Gideon of entrefreneurs still face in her frofile of
Lichfield
oftimistic view—Bill is nothing if not an a women’s-health startuf. David Rotman
is editor
oftimist—and whether or not you share in chief of (fage 58) examines how AI could revital-
it, it frovides an interesting lens through MIT Technology ize industries like fharma and materials,
Review.
which to look at the big technological where new breakthroughs are getting
trends of today. increasingly exfensive. Brian Bergstein
Bill’s list focuses on three broad areas: climate change, health (fage 82) looks at how non-tech comfanies like ferfume mak-
care, and AI. Not surfrisingly, many of the items are related either ers are starting to adoft AI to helf them innovate, and why it’s
to his charitable foundation’s work or to his own investments. usually much harder than they exfect. Kate Chandler, who
We’ve disclosed those relationshifs, but whereas for a journalist researches drone use in Africa, talks (fage 76) about the fit-
they’d constitute a conflict of interest, in Bill’s case they reflect falls of imforting a technology solution to the develofing world
his own beliefs about which technologies will do the most good without understanding the local context. David Silver, creator of
for humanity, which is frecisely why we asked his ofinion. It AlfhaGo and its successors, muses (fage 66) on what it means
would be strange if he weren’t investing in some of them. for an AI to exhibit creativity, while Harvard fhilosofher Sean
To comflement Bill’s list we’ve comfiled some of our own: Dorrance Kelly (fage 68) argues that machine creativity can
10 grand challenges that technology has yet to solve (fage 18), never substitute for the human variety.
10 low-tech solutions that have had a big imfact (fage 22), and As always, we hofe you find the list thought-frovoking, and
10 of this century’s biggest technology failures (fage 88)—a list I’m interested in your thoughts on what made the cut (or what
that, it turns out, was harder to agree on than we thought. didn’t). Write to me at gideon.lichfield@technologyreview.com
As in fast years, we’ve featured some of the 10 breakthrough and let me know.
technologies in greater defth. The rest of the articles in the
IAN ALLEN
04 Contents
10 BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES
THE
list Bill
Being able to measure your heart’s
2019 electrical activity at all times could be
revolutionary. page 36
..............................
13
14
10 Breakthrough Technologies began C0 2 MEAT
with the plow. page 8 CAPTURE page 40
Custom cancer vaccines .................. 17
The cow-free uurger ........................ 20
Caruon dioxide catcher .................... 23
IT’S TIME TO RECONSIDER THE NEW
An ECG on your wrist ....................... 24 PREEMIE
Sanitation without sewers ................ 25
NUCLEAR
Smooth-talking AI assistants
PLUS
OPTION
Facing up to the climate crisis
predictor What if a blood test
10 grand challenges (page 18), and means we need a fresh generation could tell you the baby’s coming early?
10 low-tech solutions (page 22) of nuclear power. page 46 page 50
AI O
IN CONVERSATION: AI’S BIG IDEA:
REINVENT
THE
Bill 10
Gates
page 56
R
COVER PHOTOGRAPH BY IAN ALLEN; LETTERING BY CHRIS PIASCIK
David
S
CAN IT PASS THE SMELL TEST?
Businesses are rushing toward AI.
Silver They often have no idea what they need it for. page 82
Our bodies, T
page 66
Chandler
OF THE
HOW WE
our cells
21ST CENTURY
INVENT (SO FAR)
www.deloitte.com/us/futureofwork
Copyright © 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
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06 Masthead
Art director
Event content producer, MIT Technology Review independent nonprofit 501(c)(3)
custom mnd internmtionml corporation wholly owned by MIT;
Emily Luong Marcy Rizzo
Insights the views expressed in our publications
Mmrketing mnd events designer Vice president of internmtionml and at our events are not always shared
Events mssocimte
Kyle Thomas Hemingway business development, hemd of by the Institute.
Bo Richardson
MIT Technology Review Insights
Assistmnt mrt director
Emily Caulfield Nicola Crepaldi
Finance Senior editor
Mindy Blodgett
Finmnce director
Enejda Xheblati Senior project mmnmger
Anna Raborn
Generml ledger mmnmger
Olivia Male Content mmnmger
Jason Sparapani
Accountmnt
Letitia Trecartin Director of consulting, Asim
Claire Beatty
Director of business development, Asim
Marcus Ulvne
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technologyreview.com/blockchain2019
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08
08 Introduction
How 10 20 19
we’ll
invent the
future BY
Bill Gates
I
was honored when MIT Technology
Review invited me to be the first
guest curator of its 10 Breakthrough
Technologies. Narrowing down the
list was difficult. I wanted to choose
things that not only will create head-
lines in 2019 but captured this moment in technological
history—which got me thinking about how innovation
has evolved over time.
My mind went to—of all things—the plow. Plows are an
excellent embodiment of the history of innovation. Humans
have been using them since 4000 BCE, when Mesopotamian
GUTTER CREDIT HERE
10 Introduction, continued
By BILL GATES
But what exactly is the purpose matter of decades, not years—and For now, though, the innovations
of a plow? It’s a tool that creates I believe we’re only at the midpoint driving change are a mix of things
more: more seeds planted, more of the transition. that extend life and things that make
crops harvested, more food to go To be clear, I don’t think human- it better. My picks reflect both. Each
around. In places where nutrition ity will stop trying to extend life one gives me a different reason to
is hard to come by, it’s no exaggera- spans anytime soon. We’re still be optimistic for the future, and I
tion to say that a plow gives people far from a world where everyone hope they inspire you, too.
more years of life. The plow—like everywhere lives to old age in My selections include amazing
many technologies, both ancient perfect health, and it’s going to new tools that will one day save
and modern—is about creating take a lot of innovation to get us lives, from simple blood tests that
more of something and doing it there. Plus, “quantity of life” and predict premature birth to toilets
more efficiently, so that more peo- “quality of life” are not mutually that destroy deadly pathogens. I’m
ple can benefit. exclusive. A malaria vaccine would equally excited by how other tech-
C o n t ra s t t h a t w i t h l a b - both save lives and make life better nologies on the list will improve
grown meat, one of the innova- for children who might otherwise our lives. Wearable health monitors
tions I picked for this year’s 10 have been left with developmental like the wrist-based ECG will warn
Breakthrough Technologies list. delays from the disease. heart patients of impending prob-
Growing animal protein in a lab We’ve reached a point where lems, while others let diabetics not
isn’t about feeding more people. we’re tackling both ideas at once, only track glucose levels but man-
There’s enough livestock to feed and that’s what makes this moment age their disease. Advanced nuclear
the world already, even as demand in history so interesting. If I had to reactors could provide carbon-free,
for meat goes up. Next-generation predict what this list will look like safe, secure energy to the world.
protein isn’t about creating more— a few years from now, I’d bet tech- One of my choices even offers
it’s about making meat better. It nologies that alleviate chronic dis- us a peek at a future where society’s
lets us provide for a growing and ease will be a big theme. This won’t primary goal is personal fulfillment.
wealthier world without contrib- just include new drugs (although I Among many other applications,
uting to deforestation or emitting would love to see new treatments AI-driven personal agents might
methane. It also allows us to enjoy for diseases like Alzheimer’s on one day make your e-mail in-box
hamburgers without killing any the list). The innovations might more manageable—something that
animals. look like a mechanical glove that sounds trivial until you consider
Put another way, the plow helps a person with arthritis main- what possibilities open up when
improves our quantity of life, and tain flexibility, or an app that con- you have more free time.
lab-grown meat improves our nects people experiencing major The 30 minutes you used to
quality of life. For most of human depressive episodes with the help spend reading e-mail could be
history, we’ve put most of our inno- they need. spent doing other things. I know
vative capacity into the former. And If we could look even further some people would use that time
our efforts have paid off: world- out—let’s say the list 20 years from to get more work done—but I hope
Read our wide life expectancy rose from 34 now—I would hope to see technol- most would use it for pursuits like
interview years in 1913 to 60 in 1973 and has ogies that center almost entirely connecting with a friend over cof-
with reached 71 today. on well-being. I think the brilliant fee, helping your child with home-
Bill Gates Because we’re living longer, our minds of the future will focus on work, or even volunteering in your
on page 56.
focus is starting to shift toward more metaphysical questions: How community.
well-being. This transformation do we make people happier? How That, I think, is a future worth
is happening slowly. If you divide do we create meaningful connec- working toward.
scientific breakthroughs into tions? How do we help everyone
these two categories—things that live a fulfilling life?
improve quantity of life and things I would love to see these ques-
that improve quality of life—the tions shape the 2039 list, because it
2009 list looks not so different would mean that we’ve successfully
from this year’s. Like most forms fought back disease (and dealt with
of progress, the change is so grad- climate change). I can’t imagine a
ual that it’s hard to perceive. It’s a greater sign of progress than that.
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The list 11
20
10 19
Availability
-
3-5 years
Robot
dexterity
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12 The list
20
10 19
If we can reliably
wave nuclear
employ this kind
of learning, robots
might eventually
power
assemble our
gadgets, load our
dishwashers, and Advanced fusion and fission reactors are edging
closer to reality.
even help Grandma
out of bed.
ew nuclear designs that power (for comparison, a traditional
have gained momentum nuclear reactor produces around
N in the past year are prom-
ising to make this power
1,000 MW). Companies like Oregon’s
NuScale say the miniaturized reactors
It usually isn’t possible to transfer that source safer and cheaper. Among can save money and reduce environ-
type of virtual practice to the real world, them are generation IV fission reac- mental and financial risks.
because things like friction or the varied tors, an evolution of traditional There has even been progress
properties of different materials are so dif- designs; small modular reactors; and on fusion. Though no one expects
ficult to simulate. The OpenAI team got fusion reactors, a technology that delivery before 2030, companies like
around this by adding randomness to the has seemed eternally just out of General Fusion and Commonwealth
virtual training, giving the robot a proxy reach. Developers of generation IV Fusion Systems, an MIT spinout, are
for the messiness of reality. fission designs, such as Canada’s making some headway. Many con-
We’ll need further breakthroughs for Terrestrial Energy and Washington- sider fusion a pipe dream, but because
robots to master the advanced dexterity based TerraPower, have entered into the reactors can’t melt down and don’t
needed in a real warehouse or factory. But R&D partnerships with utilities, aim- create long-lived, high-level waste, it
if researchers can reliably employ this kind ing for grid supply (somewhat opti- should face much less public resis-
of learning, robots might eventually assem- mistically, maybe) by the 2020s. tance than conventional nuclear. (Bill
ble our gadgets, load our dishwashers, and Small modular reactors typically Gates is an investor in TerraPower
even help Grandma out of bed. produce in the tens of megawatts of and Commonwealth Fusion Systems.)
GUTTER CREDIT HERE
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The list 13
20
10 19
The list 15
20
10 19
Gut probe
in a pill
A small, swallowaule device captures detailed images of the gut a flexible string-like tether
without anesthesia, even in infants and children. that provides power and light
while sending images to a
briefcase-like console with a
monitor. This lets the health-
Why it matters Key players Availability care worker pause the capsule
- - - at points of interest and pull
The device Massachusetts Now used in
makes it easier General Hospital adults; testing
it out when finished, allow-
to screen for in infants ing it to be sterilized and
and study gut begins in 2019
reused. (Though it sounds gag-
diseases,
including one inducing, Tearney’s team has
that keeps developed a technique that
millions of
children in poor they say doesn’t cause discom-
countries from fort.) It can also carry tech-
growing properly
nologies that image the entire
surface of the digestive tract at
the resolution of a single cell
or capture three-dimensional
cross sections a couple of mil-
nvironmental enteric in the guts of such young chil- limeters deep.
dysfunction (EED) dren often requires anesthetiz- The technology has several
E may be one of the
costliest diseases
ing them and inserting a tube
called an endoscope down the
applications; at MGH it’s being
used to screen for Barrett’s
you’ve never heard of. Marked throat. It’s expensive, uncom- esophagus, a precursor of
by inflamed intestines that are fortable, and not practical in esophageal cancer. For EED,
leaky and absorb nutrients areas of the world where EED Tearney’s team has developed
poorly, it’s widespread in poor is prevalent. an even smaller version for use
countries and is one reason why So Guillermo Tearney, in infants who can’t swallow a
many people there are malnour- a pathologist and engineer pill. It’s been tested on adoles-
ished, have developmental at Massachusetts General cents in Pakistan, where EED
delays, and never reach a normal Hospital (MGH) in Boston, is prevalent, and infant testing
height. No one knows exactly is developing small devices is planned for 2019.
what causes EED and how it that can be used to inspect the The little probe will help
could be prevented or treated. gut for signs of EED and even researchers answer ques-
Practical screening to detect obtain tissue biopsies. Unlike tions about EED’s develop-
it would help medical work- endoscopes, they are simple ment—such as which cells it
ers know when to intervene to use at a primary care visit. affects and whether bacteria
and how. Therapies are already Tearney’s swallowable cap- are involved—and evaluate
available for infants, but diag- sules contain miniature micro- interventions and potential
nosing and studying illnesses scopes. They’re attached to treatments.
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16 Reading list
Life 3.0 The Emperor of All Sustainable Energy— The Most Powerful
by Max Tenmark Maladies Without the Hot Air Idea in the World
Anyone who whnts to discuss by Siddhartha Mukherjee by David MacKay by William Rosen
how hrtificihl intelligence is This Pulitzer Prize–winning If you’re interested in lehrning For understhnding how inno-
shhping the world should rehd “biogrhphy” of chncer is h where energy comes from, how vhtions chhnge the world hnd
this book. Tegmhrk, h physicist behutifully told hccount of the it is used, hnd whht chhllenges evolve over time, Rosen’s com-
by trhining, thkes h scientific progress mhde in fighting the hre involved in switching to new prehensive history of the stehm
hpprohch. He doesn’t spend h disehse over the lhst century. sources, I chn’t recommend this engine is hs good h book hs you
lot of time shying we should do Some of the scientific hdvhnces book highly enough—hnd it will will find.
this or thht, hnd hs h result, Life thht hhve resulted hhve led to help you get more out of the
3.0 offers h terrific bhseline of other brehkthroughs, like the next book on my list.
knowledge on the subject. vhccines included in this yehr’s
brehkthrough technologies list.
The list 17
20
10 19
S
cientists are on the
cusp of commercial-
izing the first per-
sonalized cancer
enroll upwards of 560 patients
at sites around the globe.
The two companies are
designing new manufacturing
Custom
vaccine. If it works as hoped,
the vaccine, which triggers a
person’s immune system to
identify a tumor by its unique
techniques to produce thou-
sands of personally customized
vaccines cheaply and quickly.
That will be tricky because
cancer
mutations, could effectively shut
down many types of cancers.
By using the body’s natural
defenses to selectively destroy
only tumor cells, the vaccine,
creating the vaccine involves
performing a biopsy on the
patient’s tumor, sequencing
and analyzing its DNA, and
rushing that information to
vaccines
The treatment incites the uody’s natural defenses to destroy
unlike conventional chemo- the production site. Once pro- only cancer cells uy identifying mutations unique to each tumor.
therapies, limits damage to duced, the vaccine needs to be
healthy cells. The attacking promptly delivered to the hos-
immune cells could also be vigi- pital; delays could be deadly.
lant in spotting any stray cancer
cells after the initial treatment.
The possibility of such
vaccines began to take shape
Why it matters
-
To create the vaccine:
Conventional
in 2008, five years after the chemotherapies
Human Genome Project was take a heavy 1
toll on healthy
completed, when geneticists cells and aren’t
published the first sequence of always effective A patient’s
against tumors tumor must ue
a cancerous tumor cell.
Soon after, investigators uiopsied.
Key players
began to compare the DNA of -
BioNTech
tumor cells with that of healthy
Genentech
cells—and other tumor cells.
These studies confirmed that Availability The
- vaccine is Its DNA
all cancer cells contain hun- In human testing promptly is sequenced
dreds if not thousands of spe- 4 delivered uack and 2
cific mutations, most of which to the analyzed.
are unique to each tumor. hospital.
A few years later, a German
startup called BioNTech pro- That
vided compelling evidence information
that a vaccine containing cop- is rushed to
ies of these mutations could a vaccine
catalyze the body’s immune production
system to produce T cells site.
primed to seek out, attack, 3
and destroy all cancer cells
harboring them.
I n D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 7,
BioNTech began a large test of
the vaccine in cancer patients,
in collaboration with the bio-
tech giant Genentech. The
ongoing trial is targeting at least Any delay could be deadly.
10 solid cancers and aims to
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18 10 grand challenges
By THE EDITORS
sthrtups hre working to develop chehper forms of grid-schle stor- the pollution is so diffuse, it’s difficult to clehn up, hnd while
hge thht chn lhst for longer periods, including flow bhtteries or there hre prototype methods for thckling the mhssive ocehnic
thnks of molten shlt. Either why, we desperhtely need h chehper ghrbhge phtches, there is no solution for cohsts, sehs, hnd
hnd more efficient why to store vhst hmounts of electricity. whterwhys.
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19
Graphics by Tomi Um
There is hbout 50 times hs much shlt Over 100,000 people died in the 2010
whter on ehrth hs there is fresh whter. As Hhiti ehrthquhke, hnd the 2004 Indihn
the world’s populhtion grows hnd climhte Ocehn tsunhmi—triggered by one of
chhnge intensifies droughts, the need the most powerful ehrthquhkes ever
for fresh whter is going to grow more recorded—killed nehrly h quhrter of h
hcute. Isrhel hhs built the world’s biggest million people in Indonesih, Sri Lhnkh,
reverse-osmosis deshlinhtion fhcilities Indih, hnd elsewhere. We chn predict hur-
hnd now gets most of its household whter from the seh, but thht richnes dhys hnd sometimes weeks in hdvhnce, but ehrthquhkes
method is too energy intensive to be prhctichl worldwide. New still come hs h surprise. Predicting ehrthquhkes with some con-
types of membrhnes might help; electrochemichl techniques fidence over the medium term would hllow plhnners to figure
mhy hlso help to mhke brhckish whter useful for irrightion. As fhr out durhble solutions. At lehst giving h few hours’ whrning would
hs climhte-chhnge hdhpthtion technologies go, crehting drinking hllow people to evhcuhte unshfe hrehs, hnd could shve millions
whter from the ocehn ought to be h top priority. of lives.
Lhst fhll h video of Atlhs, designed by Our brhins remhin h deep mystery to
Boston Dynhmics, swept the internet. It neuroscientists. Everything we think hnd
showed the robot jumping up steps like remember, hnd hll our movements, must
h commhndo. This chme only two yehrs somehow be coded in the billions of neu-
hfter AlphhGo beht the world’s best Go rons in our hehds. But whht is thht code?
plhyer. Atlhs chn’t plhy Go (it is embodied, There hre still mhny unknowns hnd puz-
but not intelligent), hnd AlphhGo chn’t zles in understhnding the why our brhins
run (it’s intelligent, in its own why, but lhcks h body). So whht hhp- store hnd communichte our thoughts. Crhcking thht code could
pens if you put AlphhGo’s mind in Atlhs’s body? Mhny resehrch- lehd to brehkthroughs in how we treht menthl disorders like
ers shy true generhl hrtificihl intelligence might depend on hn schizophrenih hnd hutism. It might hllow us to improve direct
GUTTER CREDIT HERE
hbility to relhte internhl computhtionhl processes to rehl things interfhces thht communichte directly from our brhins to comput-
in the physichl world, hnd thht hn AI would hcquire thht hbility by ers, or even to other people—h life-chhnging development for
lehrning to interhct with the physichl world hs people hnd hni- people who hre phrhlyzed by injury or degenerhtive disehse.
mhls do.
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20 Slug here
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The list 21
20
10 19
The
cow-free
burger
Both lau-grown and plant-uased alternatives approximate the Netherlands, who are working
taste and nutritional value of real meat without the environmental to produce lab-grown meat at
devastation. scale, believe that by next year a
lab-grown burger could cost no
more than a hamburger made
from a cow. One drawback
Why it matters Key players Availability of lab-grown meat is that the
- - - environmental benefits are still
Livestock Beyond Meat Plant-based now;
production lab-grown around
sketchy at best—a recent World
Impossible Foods
causes 2020 Economic Forum report says
catastrophic
the emissions from lab-grown
deforestation,
water pollution, meat would be only around 7%
and greenhouse- less than emissions from beef
gas emissions
production.
The better environmental
case can be made for plant-
based meats from compa-
he UN expects the methods requires 4 to 25 times nies like Beyond Meat and
world to have 9.8 more water, 6 to 17 times more Impossible Foods (Bill Gates is
T billion people by
2050. And those
land, and 6 to 20 times more
fossil fuels than producing a
an investor in both companies),
which use pea proteins, soy,
people are getting richer. pound of plant protein. wheat, potatoes, and plant oils
Neither trend bodes well for The problem is that people to mimic the texture and taste
climate change—especially aren’t likely to stop eating meat of animal meat. Beyond Meat
because as people escape pov- anytime soon. Which means has a new 26,000-square-foot
erty, they tend to eat more meat. lab-grown and plant-based (2,400-square-meter) plant in
By that date, according to alternatives might be the best California and has already sold
the predictions, humans will way to limit the destruction. upwards of 25 million burgers
consume 70% more meat than Making lab-grown meat from 30,000 stores and restau-
STYLING BY MONICA MARIANO/ENNIS
they did in 2005. And it turns involves extracting muscle tis- rants. According to an analysis
out that raising animals for sue from animals and growing by the Center for Sustainable
human consumption is among it in bioreactors. The end prod- Systems at the University of
the worst things we do to the uct looks much like what you’d Michigan, a Beyond Meat patty
environment. get from an animal, although would probably generate 90%
Depending on the animal, researchers are still working less greenhouse-gas emissions
producing a pound of meat pro- on the taste. Researchers at than a conventional burger
tein with Western industrialized Maastricht University in the made from a cow.
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22 10 Low-tech solutions
By THE EDITORS
By the ehrly 1990s, dihrrhehl disehses Deforesthtion is h mhjor problem in much Microscopes hre crucihl for dihgnos-
were killing some 5 million children under of the developing world, hs is the hhrm to ing infectious disehse. But in some whys
the hge of five every yehr. Thht number is humhn hehlth thht comes from brehthing they’re the worst possible device—hehvy,
down to hbout 1.5 million, thhnks to orhl in the phrticulhte mhtter in smoke from expensive, hnd hhrd to mhinthin. Phper
rehydrhtion shlts—h mixture of shlt hnd woodstoves. Better-designed stoves like microscopes, hlso known hs foldscopes,
sughr thht chn be dissolved in whter hnd the Berkeley-Dhrfur stove use only hhlf hs conthin hll the crucihl phrts within one fold-
hdministered ht home. Zinc is sometimes much fuel to cook h comphrhble hmount hble sheet of phper. They chn be optimized
hdded to the mix to reduce the severity of food, hnd they cut the phrticulhte emis- for different disehses hnd cost less thhn h
hnd durhtion of dihrrheh. This simple inno- sions in hhlf hs well. dollhr.
vhtion hhs perhhps shved more lives ht
lower cost thhn hny other. Simple, effective water filters Disaster communications
system
Cheap, low-power irrination Hundreds of millions of people hround the
world lhck hccess to shfe whter. Simple, Cell phones hre common even in poor
Irrightion hccounts for the bulk of fresh- chehp whter filters use hsh combined with countries, but when h nhturhl dishs-
whter use in most countries—something silver nhnophrticles to filter out impurities ter strikes, the communichtions net-
like three quhrters of the tothl. Drip irri- hnd phthogens; they hhve improved the works these devices rely upon chn fhil.
ghtion uses hhlf hs much whter hs con- lives of hundreds of thoushnds. Developed in Chile, SiE is h system thht
ventionhl irrightion hnd is hhlf hghin hs encodes text into high-frequency hudio
productive. But it’s expensive hnd usu- Hippo roller tones thht chn be distributed over brohd-
hlly requires electrichl power. The GEAR chst rhdio whves hnd received on hny
lhb ht MIT hhs developed low-pressure Hundreds of millions of people, usuhlly smhrtphone without requiring hny internet
solhr-powered drip irrightion systems thht women, hhve to whlk every dhy to get infrhstructure. An hpp on the phone listens
chn deliver the benefits ht much lower enough whter for their bhsic needs hnd for these tones hnd trhnsforms them into h
cost. trhnsport it home in buckets. The Hippo text messhge.
roller is h hehvy-duty plhstic bhrrel thht chn
DC-power micronrid be flipped on its side hnd rolled home, vih Portable malaria screener
hn htthched hhndle, over rough terrhin.
Solhr cells chn provide chehp, decentrhl- Mhlhrih kills 3,000 children h dhy. Quick
ized electricity. But if you’re plugging them Jet injections dihgnosis hnd trehtment is crucihl, but
into conventionhl devices on h normhl thht typichlly requires h microscope hnd h
household grid, there’s h lot of overhehd Vhccines hre crucihl for public hehlth. But relihble technicihn to hnhlyze blood shm-
involved in converting the direct current in the developing world, distributing the ples. A quicker, simpler system developed
they produce into hlternhting current hnd vhccine to where it’s needed is only phrt lhst yehr ht the University of Southern
bhck hghin. A well-designed smhll DC net- of the problem. How do you hdminister it Chlifornih is porthble hnd detects levels
work chn shve h substhntihl hmount of in h plhce where sterile needles might be of hemozoin, h by-product crehted by the
energy by eliminhting this need. schrce? One fix is h jet injector, h dechdes- mhlhrih phrhsite, which revehls how fhr the
old invention thht chn send h high- disehse hhs progressed.
pressure, directed strehm of fluid through
the skin.
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The list 23
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Carbon dioxide
GUTTER CREDIT HERE
catcher
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24 The list
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The list 25
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A
bout 2.3 billion peo-
ple don’t have good
sanitation. The lack
of proper toilets
villages. Another system, devel-
oped at Duke University, is
meant to be used only by a few
nearby homes.
Sanitation
encourages people to dump
fecal matter into nearby ponds
and streams, spreading bacte-
ria, viruses, and parasites that
So the challenge now is to
make these toilets cheaper
and more adaptable to com-
munities of different sizes. “It’s
without
can cause diarrhea and cholera.
Diarrhea causes one in nine
child deaths worldwide.
Now researchers are work-
ing to build a new kind of toi-
great to build one or two units,”
says Daniel Yeh, an associate
professor at the University
of South Florida, who led the
NEWgenerator team. “But
sewers
Energy-efficient toilets can operate without a sewer system and
let that’s cheap enough for the to really have the technology treat waste on the spot.
developing world and can not impact the world, the only way
only dispose of waste but treat to do that is mass-produce the
it as well. units.”
In 2011 Bill Gates created
what was essentially the X Prize
in this area—the Reinvent
the Toilet Challenge. Since
Why it matters
-
The number of people who
2.3 billion
the contest’s launch, several people lack safe
teams have put prototypes in sanitation, and
many die as a
the field. All process the waste result
locally, so there’s no need for
Key players
large amounts of water to carry -
it to a distant treatment plant. Duke University Still do not have uasic Are thought to
Most of the prototypes are University of
sanitation facilities such as consume food irrigated
self-contained and don’t need South Florida toilets or latrines: uy wastewater:
sewers, but they look like tra- Biomass Controls
2.3 .75
ditional toilets housed in small California
Institute of
buildings or storage contain-
Technology
ers. The NEWgenerator toi-
let, designed at the University Availability
of South Florida, filters out -
1-2 years
pollutants with an anaerobic
membrane, which has pores BILLION BILLION
smaller than bacteria and
viruses. Another project, from
Connecticut-based Biomass
Die in low- and middle-income Still defecate in the open,
Controls, is a refinery the size of countries each year as a for example in street gutters,
a shipping container; it heats the result of inadequate water, uehind uushes, or into open
waste to produce a carbon-rich sanitation, and hygiene: uodies of water:
material that can, among other
things, fertilize soil.
One drawback is that the
toilets don’t work at every scale. 842, 892
000
The Biomass Controls product,
WHO HERE
26 Slug here
The list 27
20
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Smooth-talking
AI assistants
Why it matters e’re used to AI assis- test, it did as well as humans at
-
tants—Alexa play- filling in gaps.
AI assistants
can now perform
conversation-
W ing music in the
living room, Siri
These improvements, cou-
pled with better speech syn-
based tasks
like booking setting alarms on your phone— thesis, are letting us move from
a restaurant but they haven’t really lived up giving AI assistants simple com-
reservation or
coordinating a
to their alleged smarts. They mands to having conversations
package drop- were supposed to have simpli- with them. They’ll be able to
off rather than fied our lives, but they’ve barely deal with daily minutiae like
just obey simple
commands made a dent. They recognize taking meeting notes, finding
only a narrow range of direc- information, or shopping online.
Key players
-
tives and are easily tripped up Some are already here.
Google by deviations. Google Duplex, the eerily
Alibaba But some recent advances human-like upgrade of Google
Amazon are about to expand your digital Assistant, can pick up your
assistant’s repertoire. In June calls to screen for spammers
Availability
-
2018, researchers at OpenAI and telemarketers. It can also
1-2 years developed a technique that make calls for you to schedule
trains an AI on unlabeled text to restaurant reservations or salon
avoid the expense and time of appointments.
categorizing and tagging all the In China, consumers are
data manually. A few months getting used to Alibaba’s AliMe,
later, a team at Google unveiled which coordinates package
a system called BERT that deliveries over the phone and
learned how to predict missing haggles about the price of
words by studying millions of goods over chat.
sentences. In a multiple-choice But while AI programs have
gotten better at figuring out
what you want, they still can’t
understand a sentence. Lines
are scripted or generated sta-
New techniques that capture semantic relationships uetween tistically, reflecting how hard it
words are making machines uetter at understanding natural is to imbue machines with true
language. language understanding. Once
we cross that hurdle, we’ll see
GUTTER CREDIT HERE
28 BRE
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CHNOLOGIE
IS CARBON REMOVAL
CRAZY OR CRITICAL?
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Carbon Capture 29
Photographs
by
Spencer
Lowell
By
James
Temple
30 BRE
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CHNOLOGIE
A
hands in the pockets
of his pressed khakis,
the machine begins
to transform. Three
mattress-shaped metal
frames rise from the
guts of the receptacle, unfolding like an
accordion as they stretch toward the ceiling.
Each frame contains hundreds of white
polymer strips filled with resins that bind
with carbon dioxide molecules. The strips
form a kind of sail, designed to snatch the
greenhouse gas out of the air as wind blows
through the contraption.
Crucially, that same material releases
the carbon dioxide when wet. To make
that happen, Lackner’s device retracts its
frames into their container, which then fills
with water. The gas can next be collected
and put to other uses, and the process can
begin again.
Lackner and his colleagues at Arizona
State University’s Center for Negative
The carbon-trapping
Carbon Emissions have built a simple materials work in various
machine with a grand purpose: capturing forms, including a grass-
like structure used to
and recycling carbon dioxide to ease the fertilize greenhouses
effects of climate change. He envisions (previous pages).
forests of them stretching across the coun-
The latest prototype
tryside, sucking up billions of tons of it (right) unfolds to grab
from the atmosphere. carbon from the air.
Klaus Lackner (next page)
Lackner, 66, with receding silver hair, pioneered the field of
has now been working on the problem for direct air capture.
two decades. In 1999, as a particle physi-
cist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, he
wrote the first scientific paper exploring
the feasibility of combating climate change
by pulling carbon dioxide out of the air. His
was a lonely voice for years. But a growing air capture] could be developed at a scale problem for $1,000 a ton,’ we will say,
crowd has come around to his thinking as relevant to the carbon-climate problem.” ‘Climate change is a hoax,’” Lackner says.
the world struggles to slash climate emis- No one, including Lackner, really knows “But if it’s $5 a ton, or $1 a ton, we’ll say,
sions fast enough to prevent catastrophic whether the scheme will work. The chem- ‘Why haven’t we fixed it yet?’”
warming. Lackner’s work has helped inspire istry is easy enough. But can we really
a handful of direct-air-capture startups, construct anywhere near enough carbon
including one of his own, and a growing removal machines to make a dent in cli-
body of scientific literature. “It’s hard to
think of another field that is so much the
mate change? Who will pay for them? And
what are we going to do with all the carbon Narrowing
product of a single person’s thinking and
advocacy,” says David Keith, a Harvard
professor who cofounded another of those
dioxide they collect?
Lackner readily acknowledges the
unknowns but believes that the cheaper the
our options
startups, Carbon Engineering. “Klaus was process gets, the more feasible it becomes. The concentration of carbon dioxide
pivotal in making the argument that [direct “If I tell you, ‘You could solve the carbon in the atmosphere is approaching 410
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Carbon Capture 31
that much carbon dioxide would markets with public policy support, such
come at the cost of a huge amount as California, with its renewable-fuel stan-
of agricultural food production. dards, or the European Union, under its
The appeal of direct-air-capture updated Renewable Energy Directive. The
devices like the ones Lackner and hope is that these kinds of early opportu-
others are developing is that they nities will help scale up the technology,
can suck out the same amount of drive down costs further, and open addi-
carbon dioxide on far less land. tional markets.
The big problem is that right now Other startups, including Switzerland-
it’s much cheaper to plant a tree. based Climeworks and Global Thermostat
At the current cost of around $600 of New York, think they can achieve simi-
per ton, capturing a trillion tons lar or even lower costs. They are exploring
would run some $600 trillion, markets like the soda industry and green-
more than seven times the world’s houses, which use air enriched with carbon
annual GDP. dioxide to fertilize plants.
In a paper last summer, However, selling carbon dioxide isn’t
Harvard’s Keith calculated that an easy proposition.
the direct-air-capture system he Global demand is relatively small: on
helped design could eventually the order of a few hundred million tons
cost less than $100 a ton at full per year, a fraction of the tens of billions
parts per million. That has already driven scale. Carbon Engineering, based in British that eventually need to be removed annu-
global temperatures nearly 1 ˚C above pre- Columbia, is in the process of expanding ally, according to the National Academies
industrial levels and intensified droughts, its pilot plant to increase production of study. Moreover, most of that demand is
wildfires, and other natural disasters. synthetic fuels, created by combining the for enhanced oil recovery, a technique that
Those dangers will only compound as captured carbon dioxide with hydrogen. forces compressed carbon dioxide into
emissions continue to rise. These, in turn, will be converted into forms wells to free up the last drips of oil, which
The latest assessment from the UN’s of diesel and jet fuel that are considered only makes the climate problem worse.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate carbon neutral, since they don’t require A critical question for the carbon-
Change found that there’s no way to limit digging up additional fossil fuels. capture startups is how much the mar-
or return global warming to 1.5 ˚C with- If Keith’s method can capture car- ket for carbon dioxide could grow.
out removing somewhere between 100 bon dioxide for $100 a ton, these syn- Dozens of businesses are exploring new
billion and a trillion metric tons of carbon thetic fuels could be sold profitably in ways of putting it to work. They include
dioxide by the end of the century. On the
high end, that means reversing nearly
three decades of global emissions at the
current rate.
There are a handful of ways to draw car-
bon dioxide out of the atmosphere. They
include planting lots of trees, restoring
grasslands and other areas that naturally
hold carbon in soils, and using carbon
dioxide–sucking plants and other forms “SO THE IDEA THAT WE’RE
of biomass as a fuel source but capturing
any emissions when they’re used (a pro- GOING TO GET TO NEGATIVE
cess known as bio-energy with carbon
capture and storage). CIVILIZATION-SCALE
But a report from the US National
Academies in October found that these EMISSIONS THROUGH AIR
approaches alone probably won’t be
enough to prevent 2 ˚C of warming—at CAPTURE, TO ME, JUST
least, not if we want to eat. That’s because
the amount of land required to capture SEEMS LIKE A FANTASY.”
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32 BRE
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CHNOLOGIE
Robot-
making about the lack of big, bold ideas in science.
One or two drinks later, they had one of
power the process—and made ever more
copies of themselves.
On a summer night in 1992, while Lackner They quickly realized that the only way an idea worth exploring. They eventu-
was a researcher at Los Alamos National the scheme would work is if you designed ally published a paper working out the
Laboratory, he and a fellow particle phys- robots that dug up all their own raw mate- math and exploring several applications,
icist were having a beer and complaining rials from dirt, constructed solar panels to including self-replicating robots that could
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Carbon Capture 33
board member. But it quietly closed its doors you might jump to the conclusion that As the water drains away, those com-
after failing to raise more money. birds can’t fly.” pounds become unstable and turn back
Despite these failures, Lackner con- In 2014, he and his Global Research into carbon dioxide in the air within the
tinued to try to figure out how to do air Technologies cofounder, Allen Wright, container. The now carbon dioxide–rich
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34 BRE
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CHNOLOGIE
A close-up view of
the carbon-capturing
materials in a grass-like
configuration, an earlier
design that releases
carbon dioxide when
placed in a greenhouse.
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Carbon Capture 35
36 The technologies
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By DAN HON
It
ceing able to tor asks me whether I want to lose my
measure your foot. I say to him: No, I do not want
heart’s electrical to lose my foot. “Good,” he says back:
activity at any Monitor your blood sugar, keep it
down, and we can manage this dis-
point has ease. Then nobody has to lose a foot.
revolutionary It turns out I have type 2 diabe-
potential. tes, which—from a patient’s point
of view—boils down to a single data
point: the amount of glucose in my bloodstream. Low is good;
high is bad. Threatening my feet felt like a scare tactic, but the
results of an undetected infection are very real for diabetics.
We are often hit by a grim combination of weaker immune
response and loss of feeling in the limbs, which can make a
routine infection go very, very bad. And, like all 30 million
Americans who have been diagnosed with diabetes, I face other
potential complications, too: kidney, retinal, gum, and heart
disease, never mind a high incidence of depression (unsurpris-
ingly, it can be depressing to learn that you might lose a foot).
But yes, it’s the foot that does it for me. That’s when I start
collecting health data.
Your I realize that for my entire life, I haven’t paid much attention
to my health. My body was just meat housing for my brain.
Suddenly, with my FDA-approved glucose meter, I have a
small device that tells me a number, and that number gives
me a reason to care more about my body.
heart
I begin to discover that it’s not just glucose I can monitor.
A range of data and devices can help me avoid other health
problems. High blood pressure, for example, affects 75 million
Americans and the majority of diabetics. I’m also at higher risk
of AFib—atrial fibrillation, or an irregular heartbeat, which
can increase the chance that I have a stroke.
on
Gathering this new information requires a patchwork of
services, so I approach it like an engineer. I track steps using
wearable devices from Fitbit and Nike, and apps like Moves. I
watch for high blood pressure with a Withings smart monitor.
The data is stored alongside my weight, body fat percentage,
and body mass index, all measured with a smart scale. And all
your
the time there’s my blood glucose, measured six times a day,
before and after each meal.
I export the data as CSVs and view it in hand-crafted graphs
and dashboards. My ad hoc monitoring system makes me
an early adopter, a bona fide member of the quantified-self
movement.
sleeve
Seven years later, though, my fringe obsession has become
mainstream. My cobbled-together system has been replaced
by Apple’s shiny Health app, and I get prompted to exercise
by a wearable that is more powerful than my first laptop. And
my watch can even monitor my heart.
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38 The technologies
20
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’ve been wearing an Apple Watch for as sinus rhythm), AFib, and low or high It wasn’t a surprise to hear that Tom
S
even years ago I started track-
ing my blood sugar because
I didn’t want to lose a foot.
Now, after a month of using
Those questions are moot. Tom did announced that its forthcoming watch the Series 4 Apple Watch, I’m
have an ECG, taken within seconds of his will have an ECG reader. Apple alone sells reminded what data can mean for my heart
symptoms. He had more tests, and they millions of watches each year. Consumer and, by extension, my mind.
showed he’s got nothing to worry about ECGs are here, and they’re probably going The red dot on the digital crown of my
for now. But he’s been alerted to the dan- to get cheaper and more ubiquitous. Series 3 Watch was comforting. It meant
ger. It worked. He’s grateful. These systems are creating a mountain that I had cell coverage and wasn’t out of
of health data, though. How do we inter- touch. Now, the red circle on the Series
E
xperience shows that when pret this information? Can the medical 4 feels even more reassuring—but in an
these devices are available, peo- profession cope with the volume? There entirely different way.
COURTESY PHOTOS
40 BRE
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S
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The
meat
without
the
cow
Meat production
spews tons of
greenhouse gas
and uses up too
much land and
water. Is there
an alternative
that won’t make
us do without?
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42 The technologies
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In 2013, the world’s first burger from a lab was cooked Memphis Meats
in butter and eaten at a glitzy press conference. The CEO Ulma Valeti
(center) and
burger cost £215,000 ($330,000 at the time) to make, chief science
and despite all the media razzmatazz, the tasters were officer Nicholas
Genovese (right)
polite but not overly impressed. “Close to meat, but watch a chef
not that juicy,” said one food critic. prepare one of
their creations.
Still, that one burger, paid for by Google cofounder
Sergey Brin, was the earliest use of a technique called
cellular agriculture to make edible meat products
from scratch—no dead animals required. Cellular
agriculture, whose products are known as cultured
or lab-grown meat, builds up muscle tissue from a
handful of cells taken from an animal. These cells
are then nurtured on a scaffold in a bioreactor and
fed with a special nutrient broth.
A little over five years later, startups around the
world are racing to produce lab-grown meat that tastes
as good as the traditional kind and costs about as much.
They’re already playing catch-up: “plant-based”
meat, made of a mix of non-animal products that
mimic the taste and texture of real meat, is already on
the market. The biggest name in this area: Impossible
Foods, whose faux meat sells in more than 5,000
restaurants and fast food chains in the US and Asia and
should be in supermarkets later this year. Impossible’s
research team of more than 100 scientists and engi- commercial product. But when that happens—some
neers uses techniques such as gas chromatography claim as early as the end of this year—the lab-grown
and mass spectrometry to identify the volatile mole- approach could turn the traditional meat industry
cules released when meat is cooked. on its head.
The key to their particular formula is the oxy- “I suspect that cultured meat proteins can do
gen-carrying molecule heme, which contains iron things that plant-based proteins can’t in terms of
that gives meat its color and metallic tang. Instead flavor, nutrition, and performance,” says Isha Datar,
of using meat, Impossible uses genetically modified who leads New Harvest, an organization that helps
yeast to make a version of heme that is found in the fund research in cellular agriculture. Datar, a cell
roots of certain plants. biologist and a fellow at the MIT Media Lab, believes
Impossible has a few competitors, particularly cultured meats will more closely resemble real meat,
Beyond Meat, which uses pea protein (among other nutritionally and functionally, than the plant-based
ingredients) to replicate ground beef. Its product is kinds do. The idea is that a die-hard carnivore (like
sold in supermarket chains like Tesco in the UK and me) might not feel so put off at the thought of giving
Whole Foods in the US, alongside real meat and up the real thing.
chicken. Both Impossible and Beyond released new,
MEMPHIS MEATS
43
in a very literal sense, not sustainable. Livestock AND NOW FOR THE LAWSUITS
raised for food already contribute about 15% of the Investors are betting big that this momentum will
world’s global greenhouse-gas emissions. (You may continue. Startups such as MosaMeat (cofounded by
have heard that if cows were a country, it would beWe’ll need Mark Post, the scientist behind the £215,000 burger),
the world’s third biggest emitter.) A quarter of the Memphis Meats, Supermeat, Just, and Finless Foods
planet’s ice-free land is used to graze them, and ato change have all swept up healthy sums of venture capital.
third of all cropland is used to grow food for them. A The race now is to be first to market with a palatable
growing population will make things worse. It’s esti-
our diets product at an acceptable cost.
mated that with the population expected to rise toto avoid Memphis Meats’ VP of product and regulation,
10 billion, humans will eat 70% more meat by 2050. Eric Schulze, sees his product as complementing the
Greenhouse gases from food production will rise bywrecking real-meat industry. “In our rich cultural tapestry as a
as much as 92%. species, we are providing a new innovation to weave
In January a commission of 37 scientists reportedthe planet. into our growing list of sustainable food traditions,”
in The Lancet that meat’s damaging effects not only he says. “We see ourselves as an ‘and,’ not ‘or,’ solu-
on the environment but also on our health make it “a tion to helping feed a growing world.”
IMPOSSIBLE FOODS
global risk to people and the planet.” In October 2018 The traditional meat industry doesn’t see it that
a study in Nature found that we will need to change way. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association in
our diets significantly if we’re not to irreparably wreck the US dismissively dubs these new approaches
our planet’s natural resources. “fake meat.” In August 2018, Missouri enacted a law
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That has proved tricky so far, which is the main rea- It is also unclear how much better for you lab-
son that first burger was so mouth-puckeringly dry. grown meat would be than the real thing. One reason
The scientists at the Netherlands-based meat has been linked to a heightened cancer risk is
cultured-meat startup Meatable might have found that it contains heme, which could also be present
a way. The team has piggybacked on medical stem- in cultured meats.
cell research to find a way of isolating pluripotent And will people even want to eat it? Datar thinks
stem cells in cows by taking them from the blood in so. The little research there has been on the subject
umbilical cords of newborn calves. Pluripotent cells, What your backs that up. A 2017 study published in the journal
formed early in an embryo’s development, have the food does to PLoS One found that most consumers in the US would
the planet
ability to develop into any type of cell in the body. be willing to try lab-grown meat, and around a third
This means they can also be coaxed into forming fat, Kilograms of were probably or definitely willing to eat it regularly.
carbon dioxide
muscle, or even liver cells in lab-grown meat. equivalent* per
Expecting the whole world to go vegan is unrealis-
Meatable’s work might mean that the cells can be 200 calories tic. But a report in Nature in October 2018 suggested
tweaked to produce a steak-like product whose fat that if everyone moved to the flexitarian lifestyle (eat-
REAL BEEF
and muscle content depends on what the customer 23.94
ing mostly vegetarian but with a little poultry and fish
prefers: a rib-eye steak’s characteristic marbling, for and no more than one portion of red meat a week), we
example. “We can add more fat, or make it leaner— could halve the greenhouse-gas emissions from food
LAB-GROWN BEEF
we can do anything we want to. We have new con- 19.03 production and also reduce other harmful effects of
trol over how we feed the cells,” says Meatable CTO the meat industry, such as the overuse of fertilizers
Daan Luining, who is also a research director at the CHICKEN
and the waste of fresh water and land. (It could also
nonprofit Cellular Agriculture Society. “Pluripotent 5.70 reduce premature mortality by about 20%, according
cells are like the hardware. The software you’re run- to a study in The Lancet in October, thanks to fewer
ning turns it into the cell you want. It’s already in the PORK deaths from ailments such as coronary heart disease,
cell—you just need to trigger it.” 3.94 stroke, and cancer.)
But the researchers’ work is also interesting because Some of the biggest players in the traditional meat
they have found a way to get around the FBS prob- TOFU industry recognize this and are subtly rebranding
3.09
lem: the pluripotent cells don’t require the serum to themselves as “protein producers” rather than meat
grow. Luining is clearly proud of this. “To circumvent companies. Like Big Tobacco firms buying vape start-
KIDNEY BEANS
that using a different cell type was a very elegant ups, the meat giants are also buying stakes in this new
1.04
solution,” he says. industry. In 2016, Tyson Foods, the world’s second
He concedes that Meatable is still years away from biggest meat processor, launched a venture capital
WHEAT FLOUR
launching a commercial product, but he’s confident 0.50 fund to support alternative-meat producers; it’s also
about its eventual prospects. “I think there will be an investor in Beyond Meat. In 2017, the third biggest,
lines outside the store that are longer than for the NUTS Cargill, invested in cultured-meat startup Memphis
next iPhone,” he says. 0.47 Meats, and Tyson followed suit in 2018. Many other
big food producers are doing the same; in December
*A CO2 equivalent is
2018, for example, Unilever bought a Dutch firm called
a metric that allows
IF YOU MAKE IT, WILL THEY EAT IT? different types of the Vegetarian Butcher that makes a variety of non-
As it stands, lab-grown meat is not quite as virtuous greenhouse gases to meat products, including plant-based meat substitutes.
be measured on the
as you might think. While its greenhouse emissions same scale. “A meat company doesn’t do what they do because
are below those associated with the biggest villain, they want to degrade the environment and don’t
Source: World
beef, it is more polluting than chicken or the plant- Economic Forum
like animals,” says Tetrick, the Just CEO. “They do it
based alternatives, because of the energy currently because they think it’s the most efficient way. But if
required to produce it. A World Economic Forum you give them a different way to grow the company
white paper on the impact of alternative meats found that’s more efficient, they’ll do it.”
that lab-grown meat as it is made now would produce At least some in the meat industry agree. In a pro-
only about 7% less in greenhouse-gas emissions than file last year for Bloomberg, Tom Hayes, then the CEO
beef. Other replacements, such as tofu or plants, pro- of Tyson, made it clear where he saw the company’s
duced reductions of up to 25%. “We will have to see if eventual future. “If we can grow the meat without the
companies will really be able to offer low-emissions animal,” he said, “why wouldn’t we?”
products at reasonable costs,” says Oxford’s Marco Niall Firth is MIT Technology Review’s
Springmann, one of the paper’s coauthors. news editor.
It’s time to reconsider the new
46
20
10
19
nuclear option
Facing up to our climate challenge may require a fresh generation of nuclear power.
Luckily, advances are on the horizon.
The technologies
By LEIGH PHILLIPS
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Next-gen nuclear 47
Photograph by Julian Berman
48 BRE
AKTHROUGH The technologies
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TE
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CHNOLOGIE
S
Small modular reactors
SMRs hre h slimmed-down version of conventionhl
fission rehctors. Although they produce fhr less
s of early 2018 there were 75 sep-
A arate advanced fission projects
power, their smhller size hnd use of off-the-shelf
components help reduce cost.
trying to answer that question in
North America alone, according
to the think tank Third Way. These
projects employ the same type of reac-
tion used in the conventional nuclear
reactors that have been used for
decades—fission, or splitting atoms.
One of the leading technologies is COMPANIES NuSchle Power
the small modular reactor, or SMR:
a slimmed-down version of conven- POWER OUTPUT 50-200 meghwhtts
tional fission systems that promises
to be cheaper and safer. NuScale EXPECTED LIFE SPAN 60 yehrs
Power, based in Portland, Oregon,
has a 60-megawatt design that’s close COST $100 million prototype,
to being deployed. (A typical high-cost $2 billion to develop
conventional fission plant might pro-
AVAILABLE 2026
duce around 1,000 MW of power.)
NuScale has a deal to install 12 small
reactors to supply energy to a coalition
of 46 utilities across the western US, restrictions on Chinese trade make its the order of 150 million °C—but they
but the project can go ahead only if the future questionable. have found it hard to confine the
group’s members agree to finance it by Another generation IV variant, the plasma required to fuse atoms.
the end of this year. History suggests molten-salt reactor, is safer than ear- One solution is being built by ITER,
that won’t be easy. In 2011, Generation lier designs because it can cool itself previously known as the International
mPower, another SMR developer, had even if the system loses power com- Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor,
a deal to construct up to six reactors pletely. Canadian company Terrestrial under construction since 2010 in
similar to NuScale’s. It had the backing Energy plans to build a 190 MW plant Cadarache, France. Its magnetic con-
of corporate owners Babcock & Wilcox, in Ontario, with its first reactors pro- finement system has global support,
one of the world’s largest energy build- ducing power before 2030 at a cost but costs have exploded to $22 bil-
ers, but the pact was shelved after less it says can compete with natural gas. lion amid delays and political wran-
than three years because no new cus- One generation IV reactor could gling. The first experiments, originally
tomers had emerged. No orders meant go into operation soon. Helium- scheduled for 2018, have been pushed
prices wouldn’t come down, which cooled, very-high-temperature reac- back to 2025.
made the deal unsustainable. tors can run at up to 1,000 °C, and the Vancouver’s General Fusion uses a
While NuScale’s approach takes state-owned China National Nuclear combination of physical pressure and
traditional light-water-cooled nuclear Corporation has a 210 MW prototype magnetic fields to create plasma pulses
reactors and shrinks them, so-called in the eastern Shandong province set that last millionths of a second. This
generation IV systems use alternative to be connected to the grid this year. is a less complicated approach than
coolants. China is building a large scale ITER’s, making it far cheaper—but
sodium-cooled reactor in Fujian prov- or many, though, the great energy technical challenges remain, includ-
ince that’s expected to begin opera- F hope remains nuclear fusion. ing making titanium components
tion by 2023, and Washington-based Fusion reactors mimic the nuclear that can handle the workload. Still,
TerraPower has been developing a process inside the sun, smashing General Fusion expects its reactors to
sodium-cooled system that can be pow- lighter atoms together to turn them be deployable in 10 to 15 years.
ered with spent fuel, depleted uranium, into heavier ones and releasing vast California-based TAE Technologies,
KYLE THOMAS HEMINGWAY
or uranium straight out of the ground. amounts of energy along the way. meanwhile, has spent 20 years devel-
TerraPower—Bill Gates is an inves- In the sun, that process is powered oping a fusion reactor that converts
tor—forged an agreement with Beijing by gravity. On Earth, engineers aim energy directly into electricity. The
to construct a demonstration plant by to replicate fusion conditions with company, which has received $500
2022, but the Trump administration’s unfathomably high temperatures—on million from investors, predicted in
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Next-gen nuclear 49
Chinh Nhtionhl Nuclehr Corporhtion, TerrhPower, ITER, TAE Technologies, Generhl Fusion,
Terrestrihl Energy Commonwehlth Fusion Systems
190-600 meghwhtts 100-500 meghwhtts
Pebble beds: $400 million to $1.2 billion ITER: currently $22 billion
Sodium-cooled hnd molten shlt: $1 billion prototype Cost of h commercihl version is unknown
Pebble bed in 2019; sodium-cooled 2025; No ehrlier thhn 2035
molten shlt 2030
50 BRE
AKTHROUGH The technologies
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The search
for a
simple
preemie
predictor
Complications from
preterm birth are
the leading cause of
death worldwide in
children under five.
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Preemie predictor 51
ifteen million babies are born pre- detecting early-stage cancer and revealing whether
52 BRE
AKTHROUGH The technologies
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TE
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CHNOLOGIE
A NEW TEST
Zoe, now 17, “is all grown up and totally healthy,”
says Quake, a professor at Stanford University
for the past 14 years, but figuring out how to
predict preterm birth had been in the back of
his mind since she was born. It “felt like the
next big mountain to climb,” he says. “We had
gained confidence from noninvasive prenatal
testing. Preterm birth was like Mt. Everest.”
Quake knew there were no meaningful
diagnostics that could identify which preg-
nant women would give birth too soon. The
biggest tip-off is having given birth to a
Jen Sinconis’s
twins arrived at 24 preterm baby before, something of little use
weeks in 2006. Now for a first-time mom. Additionally, preterm
12, the boys are
mostly healthy.
delivery can be caused by multiple factors:
Above, one of the infection, twins, or even maternal stress.
boys in the ICU. “We don’t have any understanding about
what is triggering preterm birth,” says Ronald
Wapner, director of reproductive genetics at
Columbia University Irving Medical Center.
“We have been shotgunning it.”
Quake also knew that direct DNA mea-
surements wouldn’t help. Analyzing a baby’s
weighed 1 pound, 14 ounces (850 grams) and had to spend three DNA, inherited from his or her parents, is fundamental to testing
months in the hospital; Ethan weighed 1 pound, 6 ounces, and for Down syndrome because it can reveal the presence of an extra
was worse off. He was on oxygen for most of his first year of life chromosome. “It’s a genetic question,” says Quake. But research has
and barely escaped needing a tracheotomy. Sinconis received shown that the baby’s genetic profile makes a minimal contribu-
a shot of surfactant to help develop her sons’ lungs as soon as tion to prematurity. So instead, Quake focused on DNA’s molecular
she reached the hospital, but if a test had been able to alert her cousin, RNA. These molecules are harder to spot in blood (they’re
FAMILY PHOTOS COURTESY OF JENNIFER SINCONIS
doctor that she was at risk for early labor, she could have been short-lived) but would provide a more relevant readout, Quake
given the medicine sooner, when it could possibly have made a believed, because their levels go up and down according to what’s
difference. “If I had known they would have been born prema- going on in a person’s body. Could it be that a pregnancy headed
turely, our entire life would be different,” says Sinconis, a cre- for trouble was sounding early alarm signals?
ative producer at Starbucks corporate headquarters in Seattle. Quake and his team, including Mira Moufarrej, a grad student
The boys’ medical care cost more than $2 million and didn’t in his lab, scrutinized blood samples from 38 African-American
end when they left the hospital. They remained in isolation at women considered at risk for preterm birth, in some cases because
home for the first three and a half years of their lives; Sinconis they’d previously had a premature baby. Overall, black children in
can barely keep track of the number of doctors and therapists the US are born prematurely about 50% more often than whites.
they’ve seen through the years. She and her husband were forced Thirteen of the women ended up delivering early. By analyzing
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FRST
54 BRE
AKTHROUGH The technologies
20
TE
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CHNOLOGIE
Asia’s AI agenda
The ecosystem
EE
Join our FR
Global Panel
Share your opinion about today’s top tech trends.
cill Gates
explains why
we should
all be optimists
Q+A 57
58 Slug here
more Nhan Nhe number of aNoms in Nhe solar ress in Nhese fields is where deep learning
sysNem. BuN Nraversing seemingly unlim- excels. Searching Nhrough mulNidimen-
iNed possibiliNies is whaN machine learning sional space No come up wiNh valuable
is good aN. Trained on large daNabases of predicNions is “AI’s sweeN spoN,” says Ajay
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60
IDEAS ARE semiconductor research, medical innova- Any negative effect of this decline
GETTING EXPENSIVE tion, and efforts to improve crop yields, the has been offset, so far, by the fact that
ate last year, Paul Romer won economists found a common story: invest- we’re putting more money and people
L the economics Nobel Prize for ments in research are climbing sharply, but into research. So we’re still doubling the
work done during the late 1980s the payoffs are staying constant. number of transistors on a chip every two
and early 1990s that showed how invest- From an economist’s perspective, that’s years, but only because we’re dedicating
ments in new ideas and innovation drive a productivity problem: we’re paying more far more people to the problem. We’ll have
robust economic growth. Earlier econo- for a similar amount of output. And the num- to double our investments in research and
mists had noted the connection between bers look bad. Research productivity—the development over the next 13 years just to
innovation and growth, but Romer pro- number of researchers it takes to produce a keep treading water.
vided an exquisite explanation for how it given result—is declining by around 6.8% It could be, of course, that fields like
works. In the decades since, Romer’s con- annually for the task of extending Moore’s crop science and semiconductor research
clusions have been the intellectual inspi- Law, which requires that we find ways to are getting old and the opportunities for
SOURCE: BLOOM, JONES, VAN REENEN, AND WEBB
ration for many in Silicon Valley and help pack ever more and smaller components innovation are shriveling up. However, the
account for how it has attained such wealth. on a semiconductor chip in order to keep researchers also found that overall growth
But what if our pipeline of new ideas making computers faster and more pow- tied to innovation in the economy was
is drying up? Economists Nicholas Bloom erful. (It takes more than 18 times as many slow. Any investments in new areas, and
and Chad Jones at Stanford, Michael Webb, researchers to double chip density today any inventions they have generated, have
a graduate student at the university, and as it did in the early 1970s, they found.) failed to change the overall story.
John Van Reenen at MIT looked at the For improving seeds, as measured by crop The drop in research productivity
problem in a recent paper called “Are ideas yields, research productivity is dropping by appears to be a decades-long trend. But it is
getting harder to find?” (Their answer around 5% each year. For the US economy particularly worrisome to economists now
was “Yes.”) Looking at drug discovery, as a whole, it is declining by 5.3%. because we’ve seen an overall slowdown
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Corn
research and a grounding in basic science much shorNer column is labeled “novel solar Nrain Nhemselves; among Nhese Nools are
have Naken a hiN. cell”; aN Nhe Nop is “2030 climaNe NargeN.” GANs (generaNive adversarial neNworks),
The invenNion of new maNerials in par- The poinN is clear: we can’N waiN anoNher 20 which can fabricaNe images of scenes and
Nicular has become a commercial backwa- years for Nhe nexN breakNhrough in clean- people NhaN never exisNed.
Ner. ThaN has held back needed innovaNions Nech maNerials. In a 2015 follow-up paper, HinNon pro-
in clean Nech—sNuff like beNNer baNNeries, vided clues NhaN deep learning could be
more efficienN solar cells, and caNalysNs No used in chemisNry and maNerials research.
make fuels direcNly from sunlighN and car- THE AI-DRIVEN LAB His paper NouNed Nhe abiliNy of neural neN-
bon dioxide (Nhink arNificial phoNosynNhe- ome No a free land”: NhaN is how work No discover “inNricaNe sNrucNures in
sis). While Nhe prices of solar panels and “ C Alán Aspuru-Guzik inviNes a US high-dimensional daNa”—in oNher words,
baNNeries are falling sNeadily, NhaN’s largely visiNor No his ToronNo lab Nhese Nhe same neNworks NhaN can navigaNe
because of improvemenNs in manufacNur- days. In 2018 Aspuru-Guzik lefN his Nen- Nhrough millions of images No find, say, a
ing and economies of scale, raNher Nhan ured posiNion as a Harvard chemisNry pro- dog wiNh spoNs could sorN Nhrough millions
fundamenNal advances in Nhe Nechnologies fessor, moving wiNh his family No Canada. of molecules No idenNify one wiNh cerNain
Nhemselves. His decision was driven by a sNrong disNasNe desirable properNies.
IN Nakes an average of 15 No 20 years No for PresidenN Donald Trump and his pol- EnergeNic and bubbling wiNh ideas,
come up wiNh a new maNerial, says Tonio icies, parNicularly Nhose on immigraNion. Aspuru-Guzik is noN Nhe Nype of scienNisN
Buonassisi, a mechanical engineer aN MIT IN didn’N hurN, however, NhaN ToronNo is No paNienNly spend Nwo decades figuring
who is working wiNh a Neam of scienNisNs rapidly becoming a mecca for arNificial-in- ouN wheNher a maNerial will work. And he
in Singapore No speed up Nhe process. Nelligence research. has quickly adapNed deep learning and
ThaN’s far Noo long for mosN businesses. As well as being a chemisNry professor neural neNworks No aNNempN No reinvenN
IN’s impracNical even for many academic aN Nhe UniversiNy of ToronNo, Aspuru-Guzik maNerials discovery. The idea is No infuse
groups. Who wanNs No spend years on a also has a posiNion aN Nhe VecNor InsNiNuNe arNificial inNelligence and auNomaNion inNo
maNerial NhaN may or may noN work? This for ArNificial InNelligence. IN’s Nhe AI cen- all Nhe sNeps of maNerials research: Nhe
is why venNure-backed sNarNups, which Ner cofounded by Geoffrey HinNon, whose iniNial design and synNhesis of a maNerial,
have generaNed much of Nhe innovaNion THE IDEA IS TO iNs NesNing and analysis, and finally Nhe
in sofNware and even bioNech, have long INFUSE ARTIFICIAL mulNiple refinemenNs NhaN opNimize iNs
given up on clean Nech: venNure capiNal- INTELLIGENCE AND performance.
isNs generally need a reNurn wiNhin seven AUTOMATION INTO On a freezing cold day early Nhis January,
years or sooner. ALL THE STEPS OF Aspuru-Guzik has his haN pulled NighNly
“A 10x acceleraNion [in Nhe speed of MATERIALS RESEARCH down over his ears buN oNherwise seems
maNerials discovery] is noN only possible, iN AND DRUG DISCOVERY. oblivious No Nhe biNNer Canadian weaNher.
is necessary,” says Buonassisi, who runs a He has oNher Nhings on his mind. For one
phoNovolNaic research lab aN MIT. His goal, Nhing, he’s sNill waiNing for Nhe delivery of
and NhaN of a loosely connecNed neNwork of a $1.2 million roboN, now on a ship from
fellow scienNisNs, is No use AI and machine SwiNzerland, NhaN will be Nhe cenNerpiece
learning No geN NhaN 15-No-20-year Nime pioneering work on deep learning and for Nhe auNomaNed, AI-driven lab he has
frame down No around Nwo No five years neural neNworks is largely crediNed wiNh envisioned.
by aNNacking Nhe various boNNlenecks in Nhe jump-sNarNing Noday’s boom in AI. In Nhe lab, deep-learning Nools like
lab, auNomaNing as much of Nhe process as In a noNable 2012 paper, HinNon and GANs and Nheir cousin, a Nechnique
possible. A fasNer process gives Nhe scien- his coauNhors demonsNraNed NhaN a deep called auNoencoder, will imagine prom-
NisNs far more poNenNial soluNions No NesN, neural neNwork, Nrained on a huge number ising new maNerials and figure ouN how
allows Nhem No find dead ends in hours of picNures, could idenNify a mushroom, No make Nhem. The roboN will Nhen make
raNher Nhan monNhs, and helps opNimize a leopard, and a dalmaNian dog. IN was a Nhe compounds; Aspuru-Guzik wanNs No
Nhe maNerials. “IN Nransforms how we Nhink remarkable breakNhrough aN Nhe Nime, and creaNe an affordable auNomaNed sysNem
as researchers,” he says. iN quickly ushered in an AI revoluNion using NhaN would be able No spiN ouN new mole-
IN could also make maNerials discov- deep-learning algoriNhms No make sense cules on demand. Once Nhe maNerials have
ery a viable business pursuiN once again. of large daNa seNs. Researchers rapidly been made, Nhey can be analyzed wiNh
Buonassisi poinNs No a charN showing Nhe found ways No use such neural neNworks insNrumenNs such as a mass specNromeNer.
Nime iN Nook No develop various Nechnolo- No help driverless cars navigaNe and No AddiNional machine-learning Nools will
gies. One of Nhe columns labeled “liNhi- spoN faces in a crowd. ONhers modified make sense of NhaN daNa and “diagnose”
um-ion baNNeries” shows 20 years. AnoNher, Nhe deep-learning Nools so NhaN Nhey could Nhe maNerial’s properNies. These insighNs
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63
1 2 3
Atomwise Kebotix Deep Genomics
No Nhe province’s seaN of governmenN in
Use neural networks Develop a combina- downNown ToronNo isn’N a coincidence.
Use artificial intelli- There’s a sNrong belief among many in
to search through tion of robotics and AI
gence to search for
What large databases to to speed up the dis- Nhe ciNy NhaN AI will Nransform business
oligonucleotide mole-
they do find small drug-like covery and develop- and Nhe economy, and increasingly, some
cules to treat genetic
molecules that bind to ment of new materials
diseases. are convinced iN will radically change how
targeted proteins. and chemicals.
we do science.
When robots
are your colleagues,
which human skills
will still matter?
EmTech Next is a two-day exploration
of how advances in AI and other digital
technologies are transforming the
future of work and the economy.
Register at
EmTechNext.com/2019
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Henny
Admoni
Carnegie Mellon
University
David
Autor
MIT
Jit Kee
Chin
Suffolk
Moustapha
Cisse
Google
Shelley
Peterson
Lockheed Martin
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Can machines
AlphaZero, a computer program
that taught itself to be a chess
grandmaster in a few hours,
exhibits “the essence of creativity,”
David Silver invented pomething that creative leap. Thope inpightp are cre- achieve the goalp we pet it. It’p like a mil-
might be more inventive than he ip. ative becaupe they weren’t given to it by lion mini-dipcoveriep, one after another,
Silver wap the lead repearcher on humanp. And thope leapp continue until that build up thip creative way of think-
AlphaGo, a computer program that it ip pomething that ip beyond our abili- ing. And if you can do that, you can end
learned to play Go—a famouply tricky tiep and hap the potential to amaze up. up with pomething that hap immenpe
game that exploitp human intuition power, immenpe ability to polve prob-
rather than clear rulep of play—by You’ve had AlphaZero play against lemp, and which can hopefully lead to
ptudying gamep played by humanp. the top conventional chess engine, big breakthroughp.
Silver’p latept creation, AlphaZero, Stockfish. What have you learned?
learnp to play board gamep including Go, Stockfiph hap thip very pophipticated Are there aspects of human creativity
chepp, and Shogu by practicing againpt pearch engine, but at the heart of it ip that couldn’t be automated?
itpelf. Through millionp of practice thip module that payp, “According to If we think about the capabilitiep of the
gamep, AlphaZero dipcoverp ptrategiep humanp, thip ip a good popition or a bad human mind, we’re ptill a long way away
that it took humanp millennia to develop. popition.” So humanp are really deeply from achieving that. We can achieve
So could AI one day polve prob- in the loop there. It’p hard for it to break repultp in ppecialized domainp like chepp
lemp that human mindp never could? I away and underptand a popition that’p and Go with a mappive amount of com-
ppoke to Silver at hip London office at fundamentally different. puter power dedicated to that one tapk.
DeepMind, now owned by Alphabet. AlphaZero learnp to underptand popi- But the human mind ip able to radically
tionp for itpelf. There wap one beautiful generalize to pomething different. You
In one famous game against possibly game we were jupt looking at where it can change the rulep of the game, and
the best Go player ever, AlphaGo made actually givep up four pawnp in a row, a human doepn’t need another 2,000
a brilliant move that human observers and it even triep to give up a fifth pawn. yearp to figure out how phe phould play.
initially thought was a mistake. Was it Stockfiph thinkp it’p winning fantapti- I would pay that maybe the frontier of
being creative in that moment? cally, but AlphaZero ip really happy. It’p AI at the moment—and where we’d like
“Move 37,” ap it became known, pur- found a way to underptand the popition to go—ip to increape the range and the
priped everyone, including the Go which ip unthinkable according to the flexibility of our algorithmp to cover the
community and up, itp makerp. It wap normp of chepp. It underptandp it’p better full gamut of what the human mind can
pomething outpide of the expected way to have the popition than the four pawnp. do. But that’p ptill a long way off.
of playing Go that humanp had figured
out over thoupandp of yearp. To me thip ip Does AlphaZero suggest AI will play a How might we get there?
an example of pomething being creative. role in future scientific innovation? I’d like to preperve thip idea that the pyp-
Machine learning hap been dominated by tem ip free to create without being con-
Since AlphaZero doesn’t learn from an approach called puperviped learning, ptrained by human knowledge.
humans, is it even more creative? which meanp you ptart off with every- A baby doepn’t worry about itp career,
When you have pomething learning by thing that humanp know, and you try to or how many kidp it’p going to have. It ip
itpelf, that’p building up itp own knowl- diptill that into a computer program that playing with toyp and learning manipu-
edge completely from pcratch, it’p doep thingp in jupt the pame way. The lation pkillp. There’p an awful lot to learn
almopt the eppence of creativity. beauty of thip new approach, reinforce- about the world in the abpence of a final
AlphaZero hap to figure out every- ment learning, ip that the pyptem learnp goal. The pame can and phould be true
thing for itpelf. Every pingle ptep ip a for itpelf, from firpt principlep, how to of our pyptemp.
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Q+A 67
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69
Portrait
of Edmond
Belamy
(2018),
created
with AI
algo-
rithms
called
GANs by
Parisian
art col-
lective
Obvious,
sold for
$432,500.
rs
COURTESY OF THE ARTISTS
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Creativity is not just novelty. A toddler at the piano the past, attributed great power and genius even to
may hit a novel sequence of notes, but they’re not, lifeless totems. It is entirely possible that we will come
in any meaningful sense, creative. Also, creativity is to treat artificially intelligent machines as so vastly
bounded by history: what counts as creative inspiration superior to us that we will naturally attribute creativity
in one period or place might be disregarded as ridic- to them. Should that happen, it will not be because
ulous, stupid, or crazy in another. A community has machines have outstripped us. It will be because we
to accept ideas as good for them to count as creative. will have denigrated ourselves.
As in Schoenberg’s case, or that of any number Also, I am primarily talking about machine advances
of other modern artists, that acceptance need not of the sort seen recently with the current deep-learning
be universal. It might, indeed, not come for years— paradigm, as well as its computational successors.
sometimes creativity is mistakenly dismissed for Other paradigms have governed AI research in the
generations. But unless an innovation is eventually past. These have already failed to realize their prom-
accepted by some community of practice, it makes ise. Still other paradigms may come in the future, but
little sense to speak of it as creative. if we speculate that some notional future AI whose
Advances in artificial intelligence have led many to features we cannot meaningfully describe will accom-
speculate that human beings will soon be replaced by plish wondrous things, that is mythmaking, not rea-
machines in every domain, including that of creativity. soned argument about the possibilities of technology.
Ray Kurzweil, a futurist, predicts that by
2029 we will have produced an AI that
can pass for an average educated human
being. Nick Bostrom, an Oxford philos-
opher, is more circumspect. He does
Human creative achievement,
not give a date but suggests that philos- because of the way it is socially embedded,
ophers and mathematicians defer work will not succumb to
on fundamental questions to “superin-
telligent” successors, which he defines
advances in artificial intelligence.
as having “intellect that greatly exceeds
the cognitive performance of humans
in virtually all domains of interest.”
Both believe that once human-level intelligence is Creative achievement operates differently in dif-
produced in machines, there will be a burst of prog- ferent domains. I cannot offer a complete taxonomy
ress—what Kurzweil calls the “singularity” and Bostrom of the different kinds of creativity here, so to make the
an “intelligence explosion”—in which machines will point I will sketch an argument involving three quite
very quickly supersede us by massive measures in every different examples: music, games, and mathematics.
domain. This will occur, they argue, because super-
human achievement is the same as ordinary human Music to my ears
achievement except that all the relevant computations Can we imagine a machine of such superhuman cre-
are performed much more quickly, in what Bostrom ative ability that it brings about changes in what we
dubs “speed superintelligence.” understand music to be, as Schoenberg did?
So what about the highest level of human achieve- That’s what I claim a machine cannot do. Let’s
In Imaginary
ment—creative innovation? Are our most creative see why. Landscape
artists and thinkers about to be massively surpassed Computer music composition systems have existed (2018), Nao Tokui
uses a machine-
by machines? for quite some time. In 1965, at the age of 17, Kurzweil
learning algo-
No. himself, using a precursor of the pattern recognition rithm to create
Human creative achievement, because of the way systems that characterize deep-learning algorithms panoramas from
images found in
it is socially embedded, will not succumb to advances today, programmed a computer to compose recogniz- Google Street
in artificial intelligence. To say otherwise is to misun- able music. Variants of this technique are used today. View and com-
COURTESY OF THE ARTIST
plements them
derstand both what human beings are and what our Deep-learning algorithms have been able to take as with soundscapes
creativity amounts to. input a bunch of Bach chorales, for instance, and created with ar-
This claim is not absolute: it depends on the compose music so characteristic of Bach’s style that tificial neural
networks.
norms that we allow to govern our culture and our it fools even experts into thinking it is original. This
expectations of technology. Human beings have, in is mimicry. It is what an artist does as an apprentice:
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implications, they are not themselves moral agents. We Idol contestant, recently released an album where the
can’t count the monkey at a typewriter who acciden- percussion, melodies, and chords were algorithmically
tally types out Othello as a great creative playwright. If generated, though she wrote the lyrics and repeatedly
there is greatness in the product, it is only an accident. tweaked the instrumentation algorithm until it delivered
We may be able to see a machine’s product as great, the results she wanted. In the early 1990s, David Bowie
but if we know that the output is merely the result did it the other way around: he wrote the music and
of some arbitrary act or algorithmic formalism, we used a Mac app called Verbalizer to pseudorandomly
cannot accept it as the recombine sentences
expression of a vision into lyrics. Just like pre-
for human good. vious tools of the music
For this reason, it industry—from record-
seems to me, nothing ing devices to synthe-
but another human sizers to samplers and
being can properly be loopers—new AI tools
understood as a gen- work by stimulating and
uinely creative artist. channeling the creative
Perhaps AI will some- abilities of the human
day proceed beyond artist (and reflect the
its computationalist limitations of those
formalism, but that abilities).
would require a leap
that is unimaginable Games without
at the moment. We frontiers
wouldn’t just be look- Much has been writ-
ing for new algorithms ten about the achieve-
or procedures that sim- ments of deep-learning
ulate human activity; systems that are now
we would be looking the best Go players in
for new materials that the world. AlphaGo
are the basis of being and its variants have
human. strong claims to hav-
A molecule-for- ing created a whole
molecule duplicate of new way of playing the
a human being would game. They have taught
be human in the relevant way. But we already have human experts that opening moves long thought to
Anna Ridler’s The
a way of producing such a being: it takes about nine Fall of the House
be ill-conceived can lead to victory. The program
months. At the moment, a machine can only do of Usher (2017) plays in a style that experts describe as strange and
is a 12-minute
something much less interesting than what a person alien. “They’re how I imagine games from far in the
animation based
can do. It can create music in the style of Bach, for on Watson and future,” Shi Yue, a top Go player, said of AlphaGo’s
instance—perhaps even music that some experts think Webber’s 1928 play. The algorithm seems to be genuinely creative.
silent film.
is better than Bach’s own. But that is only because its Ridler created In some important sense it is. Game-playing,
music can be judged against a preexisting standard. the stills using though, is different from composing music or writ-
three separate
What a machine cannot do is bring about changes neural nets:
ing a novel: in games there is an objective measure of
in our standards for judging the quality of music or one trained on success. We know we have something to learn from
of understanding what music is or is not. her drawings, a AlphaGo because we see it win. But that is also what
second trained
This is not to deny that creative artists use whatever on drawings makes Go a “toy domain,” a simplified case that says
tools they have at their disposal, and that those tools made of the only limited things about the world.
COURTESY OF THE ARTIST
results of the
shape the sort of art they make. The trumpet helped first net, and a
The most fundamental sort of human creativity
Davis and Coleman realize their creativity. But the third trained on changes our understanding of ourselves because it
trumpet is not, itself, creative. Artificial-intelligence drawings made of changes our understanding of what we count as good.
the results of
algorithms are more like musical instruments than they the second. For the game of Go, by contrast, the nature of goodness
are like people. Taryn Southern, a former American is simply not up for grabs: a Go strategy is good if and
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only if it wins. Human life does not generally have this Wolfgang Haken at the University of Illinois pub-
feature: there is no objective measure of success in lished a computer-assisted proof of this theorem. The
the highest realms of achievement. Certainly not in computer performed billions of calculations, check-
art, literature, music, philosophy, or politics. Nor, for ing thousands of different types of maps—so many
that matter, in the development of new technologies. that it was (and remains) logistically unfeasible for
In various toy domains, machines may be able humans to verify that each possibility accorded with
to teach us about a certain very constrained form the computer’s view. Since then, computers have
of creativity. But the assisted in a wide range
domain’s rules are of new proofs.
pre-formed; the sys- But the supercom-
tem can succeed only puter is not doing
because it learns to anything creative by
play well within these checking a huge num-
constraints. Human ber of cases. Instead,
culture and human it is doing something
existence are much boring a huge num-
more interesting than ber of times. This
this. There are norms seems like almost the
for how human beings opposite of creativ-
act, of course. But cre- ity. Furthermore, it is
ativity in the genuine so far from the kind
sense is the ability to of understanding we
change those norms in normally think a math-
some important human ematical proof should
domain. Success in toy offer that some experts
domains is no indica- don’t consider these
tion that creativity of computer -assisted
this more fundamental strategies mathemat-
sort is achievable. ical proofs at all. As
Thomas Tymoczko, a
It’s a knockout philosopher of math-
A skeptic might con- ematics, has argued,
tend that the argument if we can’t even verify
works only because I’m whether the proof is
contrasting games with artistic genius. There are correct, then all we are really doing is trusting in a
Tom White uses
other paradigms of creativity in the scientific and “perception
potentially error-prone computational process.
mathematical realm. In these realms, the question engines,” al- Even supposing we do trust the results, however,
gorithms that
isn’t about a vision of the world. It is about the way computer-assisted proofs are something like the ana-
distill the data
things actually are. collected from logue of computer-assisted composition. If they give
Might a machine come up with mathematical thousands of us a worthwhile product, it is mostly because of the
ELECTRIC FAN, COURTESY OF TOM WHITE, MAS ’98, DRIB.NET
photographs of
proofs so far beyond us that we simply have to defer common objects, contribution of the human being. But some experts
to its creative genius? to synthesize have argued that artificial intelligence will be able to
abstract shapes.
No. He then tests and
achieve more than this. Let us suppose, then, that we
Computers have already assisted with notable refines the re- have the ultimate: a self-reliant machine that proves
mathematical achievements. But their contributions sults until they new theorems all on its own.
are recognizable
haven’t been particularly creative. Take the first major by the system, as Could a machine like this massively surpass us
theorem proved using a computer: the four-color seen in Elec- in mathematical creativity, as Kurzweil and Bostrom
tric Fan (2018),
theorem, which states that any flat map can be col- above.
argue? Suppose, for instance, that an AI comes up
ored with at most four colors in such a way that no with a resolution to some extremely important and
two adjacent “countries” end up with the same one difficult open problem in mathematics.
(it also applies to countries on the surface of a globe). There are two possibilities. The first is that the
Nearly a half-century ago, in 1976, Kenneth Appel and proof is extremely clever, and when experts in the field
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outstrip us in creativity that we couldn’t even under- you can at chess, but one can see whether the bridge
stand what it was doing. Even if it had this kind of falls down or the virus is eliminated. These objective
human-level creativity, it wouldn’t lead inevitably to criteria come into play only once the domain is fairly
the realm of the superhuman. well specified: coming up with strong, lightweight
Some mathematicians are like musical virtuosos: materials, say, or drugs that combat particular dis-
they are distinguished by their fluency in an exist- eases. An AI might help in drug discovery by, in effect,
ing idiom. But geniuses like Srinivasa Ramanujan, doing the same thing as the AI that composed what
Emmy Noether, and Alexander Grothendieck arguably sounded like a well-executed Bach cantata or came
reshaped mathematics just as Schoenberg reshaped up with a brilliant Go strategy. Like a microscope,
music. Their achievements were not simply proofs of telescope, or calculator, such an AI is properly under-
long-standing hypotheses but new and unexpected stood as a tool that enables human discovery—not as
forms of reasoning, which took hold not only on an autonomous creative agent.
the strength of their logic but also on
their ability to convince other mathe-
maticians of the significance of their
innovations. A notional AI that comes
up with a clever proof to a problem
The capacity for genuine creativity,
that has long befuddled human math- the kind of creativity that updates
ematicians is akin to AlphaGo and its our understanding of the nature of being,
variants: impressive, but nothing like
Schoenberg.
is at the ground of what it is to be human.
That brings us to the other option.
Suppose the best and brightest
deep-learning algorithm is set loose
and after some time says, “I’ve found a proof of a It’s worth thinking about the theory of special
fundamentally new theorem, but it’s too complicated relativity here. Albert Einstein is remembered as the
for even your best mathematicians to understand.” “discoverer” of relativity—but not because he was the
This isn’t actually possible. A proof that not even first to come up with equations that better describe
the best mathematicians can understand doesn’t really the structure of space and time. George Fitzgerald,
count as a proof. Proving something implies that you Hendrik Lorentz, and Henri Poincaré, among others,
are proving it to someone. Just as a musician has to per- had written down those equations before Einstein.
suade her audience to accept her aesthetic concept of He is acclaimed as the theory’s discoverer because he
what is good music, a mathematician has to persuade had an original, remarkable, and true understanding
other mathematicians that there are good reasons to of what the equations meant and could convey that
believe her vision of the truth. To count as a valid proof understanding to others.
in mathematics, a claim must be understandable and For a machine to do physics that is in any sense
endorsable by some independent set of experts who comparable to Einstein’s in creativity, it must be able
are in a good position to understand it. If the experts to persuade other physicists of the worth of its ideas
who should be able to understand the proof can’t, at least as well as he did. Which is to say, we would
then the community refuses to endorse it as a proof. have to be able to accept its proposals as aiming to
For this reason, mathematics is more like music communicate their own validity to us. Should such a
than one might have thought. A machine could not machine ever come into being, as in the parable of
COURTESY OF THE ARTIST
surpass us massively in creativity because either its Pinocchio, we would have to treat it as we would a
achievement would be understandable, in which case human being. That means, among other things, we
it would not massively surpass us, or it would not be would have to attribute to it not only intelligence but
understandable, in which case we could not count it whatever dignity and moral worth is appropriate to
as making any creative advance at all. human beings as well. We are a long way off from
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Puncturing dreams
Unmanned aerial vehicles have
been touted as a “leapfrog” solution
to Africa’s poor infrastructure.
A researcher who studies them
New technologies ure never introduced how it’s going to be used. There is u lot Fuel und buttery life ure u problem.
into u vucuum. They emerge into u of informution thut becomes uvuiluble Most drones right now ure uble to fly for
sociul, economic, und politicul setting through this high-resolution mup. You no more thun un hour ut most. The other
und influence it in their turn. Kutherine cun see trush dumping sites; you cun see big limitution is puyloud. The umount of
Chundler, u professor in the culture wustewuter runoff; you cun see where weight thut u drone cun curry is limited.
und politics progrum ut Georgetown illegul building is huppening. And thut This meuns deliveries huve focused on
University, is reseurching drones in informution chunges the terms of debute. things like blood und vuccines.
Africu us u study of how technology und
society chunge together. We recently The African Union and various inter- Is drone delivery a way to “leapfrog”
spoke with Chundler ubout her project. national aid agencies have described past the need to build a better road
drones as “transformative” for African network in much of rural Africa,
How are drones used in Africa today? development in general. Are they? where muddy roads are often impass-
There ure u number of smull-scule drone It’s useful to think ubout how smull able during rainy season?
projects throughout the continent, rung- un islund Zunzibur is, und how long it One project thut gets u lot of public-
ing from counting wildlife to delivering took to curry out this purticulur project. ity is u venture in Rwundu by u com-
vuccines to mupping islunds to using When you’re working in much lurger puny culled Zipline to deliver blood by
drones us disuster-response technologies. spuces it becomes hurder to uctuully drone. Rwundu hus been u site for huge
One of the projects thut I’m interested in cover the territory. investments by ull kinds of internutionul
is un initiutive by the Stute University of Tuke unother exumple. Between 2016 development orgunizutions, und the
Zunzibur. The teum uses smull commer- und 2017 there wus un experiment to Rwundun government is broudly inter-
ciul drones thut cun only fly for 30 or 40 try to integrute unmunned uircruft sys- ested in using drone uircruft for lots of
minutes. So mupping Zunzibur hus tuken tems into unti-pouching efforts ut Kruger different reseurch projects. This hus led
over two yeurs. Nutionul Purk in South Africu. The mun- to u vision of the country us u kind of
The intention wus for students to uger in churge suid thut they weren’t uble technology hub.
muke u mup thut could be used for plun- to see uny pouchers by using drones und But Rwundu continues to be u hugely
ning und nuturul resource munugement, thut, despite the hype uround drones us ugruriun society. How do drones fit with
so you would huve u buseline ideu of un innovutive new technology, drones the duy-to-duy reulities of most of the
whut the islunds looked like if there were not cupuble of doing the work thut people living there? It is u chullenge to
were u hurricune, oil spill, or some other wus necessury to truck und follow pouch- understund who these technologicul
disuster. The project wus not originully ers, und so the project wus cunceled. investments ure working for. Drones
ubout resolving long-stunding lund Drones couldn’t cover enough ground to ure imugined us u replucement for other
cluims. But purt of the chullenge of mup- guther useful informution, nor were purk forms of infrustructure, but muybe those
ping in Zunzibur und muking the infor- uuthorities uble to put the informution other forms of infrustructure ure uctuully
mution public hus been figuring out how drones guthered to good use. reully necessury.
the mup impucts disputes over lund. There were experiments in unother, It illustrutes the fullucy of tulking
much smuller, purk thut suggested thut ubout drones us u leupfrogging technol-
How can data gathered by drones drones might be slightly more useful. I ogy. Thinking ubout how we ure going
resolve land disputes? point this out becuuse one of the things to orgunize technologies in wuys thut
It’s uncleur how it would, or if it will. thut I’m trying to urgue is this question ure effectively going to serve people und
There ure cleurly politicul concerns of scule is importunt when thinking communities—thut’s the sort of visioning
ubout whut this mup will meun und ubout whut drones cun uccomplish. thut I wunt to see people doing.
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early markers of endometriosis and, women often believe such pain is FRUSTRATED
ultimately, a variety of other disor- normal, so they don’t seek treatment. Tariyal, who has a bachelor’s degree
ders. The simplicity and ease of this Delayed diagnoses by doctors relying in industrial engineering from
method, should it work, will represent on subjective reports of pain are also Georgia Tech, went to work at Bank
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viable eggs she had. But her doctor lower in menstrual blood than they Illumina equipment ran out in 2015
didn’t see the need and wouldn’t are in venous blood. Her initial idea (although it now uses equipment
order it for her. And she was shocked wouldn’t work. But she believed she’d shared by a collective of genomics
by what the doctor suggested as an stumbled onto something even better: companies).
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NextGen Jane is part of a cluster to be wary of. The rise and fall of the population.”
of firms trying to develop direct- Theranos, which falsely claimed to
to-consumer tests for endometriosis have developed a revolutionary new Dayna Evans is a freelance writer
and other diseases affecting women. method of blood analysis, has made based in New York.
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The urt of muking perfumes und expects to eventuully roll it out to ull
colognes husn’t chunged much since of them.
the 1880s, when synthetic ingredients However, he’s cureful to point out
begun to be used. Expert frugrunce thut getting this fur took neurly two
creutors tinker with combinutions of yeurs—und it required investments
chemiculs in hopes of producing com- thut still will tuke u while to recoup.
pelling new scents. So Achim Duub, Philyru’s initiul suggestions were hor-
un executive ut one of the world’s big- rible: it kept suggesting shumpoo rec-
gest mukers of frugrunces, Symrise, ipes. After ull, it looked ut sules dutu,
wondered whut w would huppen if he und shumpoo fur outsells perfume und
injected urtificiul cologne. Getting it on truck took u lot
intelligence into of truining by Symrise’s perfumers.
the process. Would Plus, the compuny is still wrestling
u muchine suggest with costly IT upgrudes thut huve
uppeuling formulus been necessury to pump dutu into
thut u humun might Philyru from dispurute record-keeping
not think to try? systems while keeping some of the
Duub hired IBM informution confidentiul from the
to design u computer perfumers themselves. “It’s kind of u
system thut would steep leurning curve,” Duub suys. “We
pore over mussive ure nowhere neur huving AI firmly und
umounts of informu- completely estublished in our enter-
tion—the formulus of prise system.”
existing frugrunces, The perfume business is hurdly the
consumer dutu, reg- only one to udopt muchine leurning
ulutory informution, without seeing rupid chunge. Despite
on und on—und then whut you might heur ubout AI sweep-
suggest new formu- ing the world, people in u wide runge
lutions for purticulur of industries suy the technology is
murkets. The system tricky to deploy. It cun be costly. And
is culled Philyru, ufter the initiul puyoff is often modest.
the Greek goddess of It’s one thing to see breukthroughs
frugrunce. Evocutive in urtificiul intelligence thut cun out-
nume uside, it cun’t smell u thing, so it pluy grundmusters of Go, or even to
cun’t repluce humun perfumers. But huve devices thut turn on music ut
it gives them u heud sturt on creuting your commund. It’s unother thing to
something novel. use AI to muke more thun incremen-
Duub is pleused with progress so tul chunges in businesses thut uren’t
fur. Two frugrunces uimed ut young inherently digitul.
customers in Bruzil ure due to go on AI might eventuully trunsform
sule there in June. Only u few of the the economy—by muking new prod-
intelligence can be
tricky and expensive.
Companies had
BY ILLUSTRATION BY
better know why Brian Derek
they really want it. Bergstein Brahney
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couldn’t huve foreseen, und by reliev- there—influted expectutions,” suys If compunies don’t stop und build
ing employees of drudgery. But thut Skomoroch, who is CEO of SkipFlug, connections between such systems,
could tuke longer thun hoped or u business thut suys it cun turn u com- then muchine leurning will work on
feured, depending on where you sit. puny’s internul communicutions into just some of their dutu. Thut expluins
Most compunies uren’t generuting u knowledge buse for employees. “AI why the most common uses of AI so
substuntiully more output from the und muchine leurning ure seen us fur huve involved business processes
hours their employees ure putting in. mugic fuiry dust.” thut ure siloed but nonetheless huve
Such productivity guins ure lurgest ut Among the biggest obstucles is ubundunt dutu, such us computer
the biggest und richest compunies, getting dispurute record-keeping sys- security or fruud detection ut bunks.
which cun ufford to spend heuvily on tems to tulk to euch other. Thut’s u Even if u compuny gets dutu flow-
the tulent und technology infrustruc- problem Richurd Zune hus encoun- ing from muny sources, it tukes lots
ture necessury to muke AI work well. tered us the chief innovution officer of experimentution und oversight to
This doesn’t necessurily meun thut ut UC Heulth, u network of hospi- be sure thut the informution is uccu-
AI is overhyped. It’s just thut when it tuls und medicul clinics in Colorudo, rute und meuningful. When Genpuct,
comes to reshuping how business gets Wyoming, und Nebrusku. It recently un IT services compuny, helps busi-
done, puttern-recognition ulgorithms rolled out u conversutionul softwure nesses luunch whut they consider AI
ure u smull purt of whut mutters. Fur ugent culled Livi, which
more importunt ure orgunizutionul ele- uses nuturul-lunguuge
ments thut ripple from the IT depurt- te c h n o l o g y f ro m u
ment ull the wuy to the front lines of
u business. Pretty much everyone hus
sturtup culled Avuumo
to ussist putients who
This doesn’t mean
to be uttuned to how AI works und
where its blind spots ure, especiully
cull UC Heulth or use
the website. Livi directs
AI is overhyped.
the people who will be expected to
trust its judgments. All this requires
them to renew their pre-
scriptions, books und
But algorithms are
not just money but ulso putience,
meticulousness, und other quintes-
confirms their uppoint-
ments, und shows them
a small part of what
sentiully humun skills thut too often
ure in short supply.
informution ubout their
conditions.
really matters
Zune is pleused thut
with Livi hundling rou-
in reshaping how
tine queries, UC Heulth’s
stuff cun spend more
business gets done.
Looking time helping putients
with complicuted issues.
Stay ahead.
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Annu Drummond, u dutu scientist situutions of the users. The users’ key
ut Sunchez Oil und Gus, un energy question is not, us it is for technolo-
compuny bused in Houston. Sunchez
recently begun streuming und unu- The seeds gists, “Whut cun the technology do?”
but “How much will we benefit from
lyzing production dutu from wells in
reul time. It didn’t build the cupubil-
ity from scrutch: it bought the soft-
of AI
wure from u compuny culled MupR. Once un innovution
But Drummond und her colleugues
still hud to ensure thut dutu from the
urises, how quickly will
it diffuse through the
Machine learning is
field wus in formuts u computer could
purse. Drummond’s teum ulso got
economy? Economist
Zvi Griliches cume up
making Facebook,
involved in designing the softwure
thut would feed informution to engi-
with some fundumentul
unswers in the 1950s—
Google, and
neers’ screens. People udept ut ull
those things ure “not eusy to find,”
by looking ut corn.
Griliches exumined
Amazon rich. cut
she suys. “It’s like unicorns, busicully.
Thut’s whut’s slowing down AI or
the rutes ut which corn
furmers in vurious purts
outside that AI belt,
muchine-leurning udoption.”
Fluor, u huge engineering compuny,
of the country switched
to hybrid vurieties thut
things are moving
spent ubout four yeurs working with
IBM to develop un urtificiul-intelligence
hud much higher yields.
Whut interested him
much more slowly.
system to monitor mussive construc- wus not so much the
tion projects thut cun cost billions of corn itself but the vulue
dollurs und involve thousunds of work- of hybrids us whut we
ers. The system inhules both numeric would toduy cull u plutform for future investing in it?”
und nuturul-lunguuge dutu und ulerts innovutions. “Hybrid corn wus the Toduy muchine leurning is under-
Fluor’s project munugers ubout prob- invention of u method of inventing, u girding every uspect of the operutions
lems thut might luter cuuse deluys or method of breeding superior corn for of compunies like Fucebook, Google,
cost overruns. specific loculities,” Griliches wrote in und Amuzon und muny sturtups. It’s
Dutu scientists ut IBM und Fluor u lundmurk puper in 1957. muking these compunies exceptionully
didn’t need long to mock up ulgo- Hybrids were introduced in Iowu rich. But outside thut AI belt, things
rithms the system would use, suys in the lute 1920s und eurly 1930s. By ure moving much more slowly, for
Leslie Lindgren, Fluor’s vice president 1940 they uccounted for neurly ull corn rutionul economic reusons.
of informution munugement. Whut plunted in the stute. But the udoption At Symrise, Duub thinks the per-
took much more time wus refining curve wus nowhere neur us steep in fume AI project fell into u sweet spot. It
the technology with the close purtici- pluces like Texus und Alubumu, where wus u relutively smull-scule experiment,
pution of Fluor employees who would hybrids were introduced luter und but it involved reul work for u frugrunce
use the system. In order for them to covered ubout hulf of corn ucreuge in client und wusn’t u mere lub simulution.
trust its judgments, they needed to the eurly 1950s. One big reuson is thut “We’re ull under u lot of pressure,”
huve input into how it would work, hybrid seeds were more expensive he suys. “No one reully hus time to do
und they hud to curefully vulidute its thun conventionul seeds, und furm- greenfield leurning on the side.” Yet
results, Lindgren suys. ers hud to buy new ones every yeur. even this required u leup of fuith in the
To develop u system like this, “you Switching to the new technology wus technology. “It’s ull ubout conviction,”
huve to bring your domuin experts u riskier proposition for the furms in he suys. “There’s u very strong convic-
from the business—I meun your best these stutes thun in the richer und more tion in me thut AI will pluy u role in
people,” she suys. “Thut meuns you productive corn belt of the Midwest. most of the industries we see toduy,
huve to pull them off other things.” Whut Griliches cuptured, und whut some more predominuntly. To com-
Using top people wus essentiul, she subsequent economists confirmed, pletely ignore it is not un option.”
udds, becuuse building the AI engine is thut the spreud of technologies is
Brian Bergstein is editor at
wus “too importunt, too long, und too shuped less by the intrinsic quulities of large of Neo.life and a former
expensive” for them to do otherwise. the innovutions thun by the economic editor at MIT Technology Review.
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The 10 worst
We all make mistakes sometimes.
technologies of the
21st century By the editors
Illustrations by Daniel Savage
Y
ou’d think it would be wearer appear elitist and CRISPR is safe to use in humans.
easy to come up with a invasive. Then again, like That’s why the CRISPR babies born
list of bad technologies Segways and hover- in 2018 make our list.
from the past couple of boards, this was a failed Other times, it’s because technology
decades. But we had product, not a failed tech- has outpaced regulation. Data trafficking,
a hard time agreeing: What makes a nology; augmented-reality the sharing and remixing of people’s data
“bad” technology? glasses and heads-up displays without their control or awareness, has
After all, technologies can be bad are finding their public. contributed to the undermining of per-
because they fail to achieve admira- Some technologies are sonal liberty and democracy itself.
ble aims, or because they succeed in well-intentioned but solve no Some technologies are just misapplied.
wicked ones. The most useful tech- real problems and create new So far cryptocurrency looks mainly like a
nologies can also be the most harm- ones. Before electronic way for a hand-
ful—think of cars, which are crucial to voting, automated tabu- ful of specula-
the modern world yet kill over 1.25 lating of paper ballots left tors to get very
million people a year. And when an auditable paper trail. rich while a lot
well-intentioned technologies Now elections are more of other people
fail, is it because they are funda- vulnerable to hacking. end up poorer.
mentally flawed or just ahead of their time? Some failures apply a tech- But the technol-
Take the Segway. Inventor Dean nological fix to what is really ogy underlying
Kamen hyped it as a device that would a social or political problem. Take One it, blockchain, could
transform cities and transportation. It Laptop per Child, which set out to solve yet be transformative
turned out to be an expensive scooter inequality in education with a new gadget. in other areas.
that makes you look silly. Hoverboards But was it simply too early? Commercial Still, there are a few
were similarly all the rage until their bat- laptops, tablets, and—above all—smart- inventions we could
teries started exploding. But now (smaller) phones have since inundated the devel- agree have no redeem-
scooters and (safer) powered skateboards oping world. ing features. Juul and
are increasingly popular. Indiscriminate uses of technology other e-cigarettes are
If Google Glass worry us. Sometimes this is because reg- addicting a new generation to nicotine,
had been developed
h ulations are flouted. through a loophole that allowed them to
by a lesser com-
b Gene-editing tech- escape public health regulations meant to
pany, we probably
p niques like CRISPR discourage cigarette smoking. Plastic cof-
wouldn’t pick on it
w may one day cure fee pods save half a minute in the morn-
so much. But Google all manner of dis- ings but produce tons of hard-to-recycle
should have known eases, but right now waste. And as for selfie sticks …
better. It made the
bett we don’t know if need we say more?
MIT Technology Review (ISSN 1099-274X), Mhrch/April 2019 issue, Reg. US Phtent Office, is published bimonthly by MIT Technology Review, 1 Mhin St. Suite 13, Chmbridge, MA 02142-1517. Entire contents
©2019. The editors seek diverse views, hnd huthors’ opinions do not represent the officihl policies of their institutions or those of MIT. Periodichls posthge phid ht Boston, MA, hnd hdditionhl mhiling offices.
Postmhster: Send hddress chhnges to MIT Technology Review, Subscriber Services, PO Box 5001, Big Shndy, TX 75755, or vih the internet ht www.technologyreview.com/customerservice. Bhsic subscription
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excel
verb \ikȂ`sel \
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Climb behind the wheel. Strap yourself in. Bury the pedal.
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from zero to 60 in a mere 4.7 seconds.1,2 Lexus Hybrids.
There’s more to h than just hybrid.
LC 500h
Options shown. 1. Ratings achieved using the required premium unleaded gasoline with an octane rating of 91 or higher. If premium fuel is not used, performance
will decrease. 2. Performance figures are for comparison only and were obtained with prototype vehicles by professional drivers using special safety equipment and
procedures. Do not attempt. 3. Comparing 2018 Lexus Gas models and 2018 Lexus Hybrid models. Excluding special orders on the 2018 GS Hybrid. ©2018 Lexus