Market Outlook 2019 by RK - Fixed Share

Market Outlook 2019
By : Rivan Kurniawan
1
Rundown RK Gathering – Market Outlook 2019
08.00 - 09.00 Registrasi

09.00 - 10.30 Sesi 1 : Market Review 2018 (+ Q&A)
10.30 - 12.00 Sesi 2 : Market Outlook 2019 (+ Q&A)
12.00 - 13.00 Lunch + Networking
2
RK Gathering – Market Outlook 2019
Market Outlook 2019
SESI 1 : MARKET REVIEW 2018
3
IHSG Summary 2017 - 2018
4
Net Buy / Sell Foreign Investors 2017 – 2018
In Rp triliun
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Buy / Sell +18.7 T +13.3 T +21.0 T +24.3 T +15.9 T -20.6 T +42.6 T -22.6 T +16.2 T
Total Net Buy 2008 – 2016
Rp 158.5 T
BBB- →BBB Baa3 →Baa2

BB+ →BBB-
Jun 2017 – Jun 2018

Total Net Sell : Outlook
Rp 111.1 T 5
RK Gathering – Market 2019
2.25% - 2.5%
2.5%
2.25% BI baru mulai menaikkan
suku bunga di Mei 2018
GAP
12 Bulan
Foreign Investor mulai
“Periode Net Sell”
08-2018
12-2018
Fed Rate 2018
6
BI 7 DRRR 6.0%
BI baru mulai menaikkan
suku bunga di Mei 2018
4.25%
Source : bi.go.id
10-2018
04-2017
06-2017
08-2017
10-2017
12-2017
02-2018
04-2018
06-2018
08-2018
02-2017
7
USD / IDR Exchange Rate
2017 - 2018
15,200
Rupiah melemah Rp 13.800 – Rp 15.200
sepanjang April 2018 – Okt 2018
BI baru “bereaksi” dengan menaikkan
BI 7 DRRR dari 4.25% - 6.0%
Rupiah stabil di Rp 13.500 – 13.800 / USD

sepanjang 2016 – Maret 2018
14,100
Rupiah menguat
Rp 15.200 – Rp 14.100
13,800
sejak Nov 2018 – saat ini
13,500
USD – IDR Exchange Rate

8
Trade War
US - China
9
US Goods Deficit with China in 2017 :
$ 375.58 billion
10
11
12
RK Gathering – Market Outlook 2019 Source : Statista
13
14
Opportunity From Trade War
15
Turkey’s
Financial Crisis
16
Facts About Turkey
Previous Latest
3.4 Lira / USD (2017) 6.8 Lira / USD (Aug 2018)
- 5.5% (2017) -5.9% (Q3 2018)
7.3% (2017) 5.2% (Q2 2018)
10% (2017) 25% (Oct 2018)
8% (2017) 24% (Oct 2018)

17
China backs Turkey to Overcome Its Economic Crisis
- August 2018 - 18
1 USD = 6.8 TRY
TRY / USD
1 USD = 5.3 TRY

Lira menguat sejak
diback up oleh China
1 USD = 3.8 TRY

1 USD = 3.6 TRY
19
Venezuela’s
Financial Crisis
20
VEB / USD
21
Facts About Venezuela
Previous Latest
9.9 VEB / USD (2017) 250,000 VEB / USD (Des 2018)
2.0% (2017) -3.0% (Q3 2018)
1.0% (2014) -16.6% (Q3 2018)
3.22% (2017) 833,997% (Oct 2018)
12.79% (2013) 21.9% (Sep 2018)

22
23
Facts About United States
Previous Latest
4.3 % (2017) 3.7% (Nov 2018)
-2.4% (2017) -2.0% (Q3 2018)
2.0% (2017) 3.0% (Q3 2018)
2.1% (2017) 2.2% (Oct 2018)
1.5% (2013) 2.25% (Nov 2018)

24
US Recession in 2019 ?
As Per 11 Jan 2019 :

• Yield Curve 2 year > Yield Curve 3
Year (-0.04%)
• Yield Curve 2 Year slightly below
Yield Curve 10 Year (+0.20%)
How’s the Impact

for Indonesia ?
Source : treasury.gov
25
US Recession in 2019 ?
26
How about
Indonesia ?
27
Facts About Indonesia
Previous Latest
Rp 13,500 / USD (2017) Rp 14.400/ USD (Des 2018)
-1.7% (2017) -3.0% (Q3 2018)
5.2% (2017) 5.2% (Q3 2018)
3.8% (2017) 3.2% (Oct 2018)
4.25% (2017) 6.0% (Nov 2018)

28
Indonesia GDP : Constantly Growing Since Fall in 2015
2013
5.6%
2017 2018*
5.2% 5.2%
2014
5.1% 2016
4.9%
2015
4.8%
2015 2017
29
Indonesia Inflation Rate : Remain Stable
in 2018
Target Inflasi dari BI :

2.5% – 4.5%
Indonesia Inflation Rate 2018

30
Potential Risk : Deficit Balance of Trade
*YTD Oct 2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
- USD 4.07 - USD 2.19 + USD 7.76 + USD 8.81 + USD - USD 5.73
bio bio bio bio 11.24 bio Bio
31
Potential Risk : Current Account Deficit to GDP
*YTD Q3 2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

- 3.2% - 3.1% - 2.0% -1.8% - 1.7% - 3.0% Bio
32
Potential Risk : External Debt
33
Government Debt to GDP
34
Market Outlook 2019
SESI 2 : MARKET OUTLOOK 2019
35
Market Outlook 2019
Faktor yang mempengaruhi stock market 2019 :
Global Domestik
1. Perang Dagang US – China 1. Pemilu
2. Rendahnya Harga Komoditas 2. Nilai tukar Rupiah
3. Fed Rate (3x → 2x) 3. Current Account Deficit
4. Perlambatan ekonomi AS dan China 4. Potensi perlambatan ekonomi
5. Brexit
36
37
Crude
Petroleum
38
Crude Oil Price
In USD
39
In ‘000
Barrel / day
40
41
42
RK Gathering – Market Outlook 2019 Source : www.iea.org
Agriculture
43
Ringgit
Malaysia
Palm Oil Price
CPO Price : The LOWEST in 5 Years
44
Indonesia Palm Oil Statistic Data
(in juta ton)
Oversupply from Indonesia
Source45: GAPKI
Indonesia and Malaysia Combined Ending Stock
(in juta ton)
Oversupply from Indonesia
Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 Mei 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18
3.62 3.50 3.65 3.97 4.75 4.84 4.90 4.59 4.60 4.41
2.55 2.48 2.32 2.18 2.17 2.19 2.23 2.50 2.53 2.72
+ 6.17 5.98 5.97 6.16 6.93 7.05 7.13 7.09 7.13 7.13
Oversupply especially from Malaysia

• Malaysia Year End Stock Estimated to reach 3.0 million tons
• Indonesia Year End Stock Estimated to reach 5.0 million tons
• Collectively we could see stocks of over 8.0 million tons
46
Negara Tujuan Ekspor CPO RI
Source : Palm Oil Analytics

47
Hope?
48
Coal
Mining
49
Coal Price
50
Pemangkasan impor batubara oleh China
Stock batubara di China :

17.06 juta ton (tertinggi sejak 2015)
Rata-rata impor batubara China :

2017 : 22 juta ton / bulan
2018 : 15 juta ton / bulan
51
52
Building
Construction 53
Kontrak Baru 2011 – 2018 (in Rp bio)
- 33%
WSKT - 51% WIKA
* Per Oct 2018
+5 %
ADHI - 38% PTPP
54
Kinerja Emiten Konstruksi 2018 : Target VS Actual
49%
54%
88%
101%
* Per Oct 2018
55
Prospek 2019
VS
Proyek Pemerintah Proyek Swasta
56
Property
57
Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Properti
Economic Growth
- GDP Growth : 5.2 – 5.3%

- Income per Capita : USD
4,131 / year
Government Business Cycle
Regulation
- LTV Ratio - Political Year 2019
- Down Payment - Unemployment Rate :
5.34%
Infrastructure
- Interest Rate
- Akses Jalan Tol dan - BI Rate 4.25% → 6%.. KPR?

Non Tol - KPR Suku bunga tetap (fixed)
- Pembangunan MRT &
LRT
58
Siklus Properti
2012 – 2013
Booming Property
- The Rise of Middle Income 2017 – 2018

- GDP per capita : > USD 3000 / year Recovery Phase
- GDP Annual Growth Rate : 6.8% (High)
- Interest Rate : 6.25%
- LTV Relaxation
- Flexible Down Payment (DP)
- Tax Reducement (PPh22 & PPnBM)
- Massive Infrastructure
- GDP Annual Growth Rate : 5.2%
- Interest Rate : 4.25% → 6.0%
2014 – 2016
- Political Year ?
Slow Down Phase
- Property Credit Tightening

- Minimum Down Payment (DP) applied
- GDP Annual Growth Rate : 4.8% (Low)
- Interest Rate : 7.5% → 4.75% 59
- LTV RK Gathering
begin – Market Outlook 2019
to applied
60
Ease of Doing Business
Ease of Doing Business in Indonesia 2008 - 2018
61
Banking 62
BI 7 DRRR 6.0%
BI baru mulai
menaikkan suku
bunga di Mei 2018
4.25%
Source : bi.go.id
04-2017
12-2018
02-2017
06-2017
08-2017
10-2017
12-2017
02-2018
04-2018
06-2018
08-2018
10-2018
63
NIM Bank BUKU IV 2015 - 2018
64
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR)
Minimum LDR : 80%

Minimum CAR : 14%
Non Performing Loan (NPL Net) Current Account to Saving Account (CASA)
Maximum NPL : 2.0%

Minimum CASA : 50%
65
Retail &
Consumer Goods 66
Indonesia GDP : Constantly Growing Since Fall in 2015
2013
5.6%
2017 2018*
5.2% 5.2%
2014
5.1% 2016
4.9%
2015
4.8%
2015 2017
67
GDP Per Capita : Higher Purchasing Power
Indonesia GDP Per Capita 2008 - 2018

68
Indonesia Consumer Spending
In Rp Billion
Indonesia Consumer Spending 2016 - 2018

69
Indonesia Retail Sales YoY
Indonesia Retail Sales YoY 2013 - 2018

70
Perkapalan
71
Crude Oil Price
In USD
72
Gross Profit Margin
2015 – 2018 Q3
Net Profit Margin

2015 – 2018 Q3
73
Challenge Industri Perkapalan
Eksportir lebih memilih Free on Board (FOB) Pembiayaan pembangunan kapal sulit diperoleh
ketimbang Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) dari Lembaga Keuangan Dalam Negeri
Industri penunjang komponen lokal belum Penundaan Permendag No 82 tahun 2017

bertumbuh Hingga 2020
74
60 – 70% komponen kapal masih impor – Market Outlook 2019
RK Gathering
Media
75
76
Political Year 2019
77
Facts : IHSG Yield Positive Result in Political Year
Political Year
78
Facts 2014 : IHSG + 22.29%
(4,275 – 5,226)
2004 : IHSG +32.85%
2009 : IHSG + 90.17%
Sektor Growth in
2014
Agriculture +9.86%
Election Mining -4.22%
Basic Industry +13.09%
Misc Industry +8.47%

4,275
Consumer Goods +22.21%
Prop & Constr +55.76%
Finance +24.71%
Trade & Services +13.11%
79
Facts : Foreign Investor Net Buy in Political Year
Political
Year
80
Facts 2014 : Foreign Investor Net Buy Rp 42.6 T
Public
Election
81
82
83
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84
[Draft] Rundown Ultimate Value Investing

10.00 - 12.00 Sesi 1 : High Level Screening : Economic and Industry Analysis
12.00 - 12.45 Lunch
DAY 1 12.45 - 15.15 Sesi 2 : Breakthrough to Company Analysis
15.15- 15.30 Coffee Break
15.30 - 17.00 Sesi 3 : Special Case Study Assessment

10.00 - 12.00 Sesi 4 : Leading Indicator of Company Growth
12.00 - 12.45 Lunch
DAY 2 12.45 - 15.15 Sesi 5 : Measuring Value of Companies
15.15 - 15.30 Coffee Break
15.30 - 17.00 Sesi 6 : Wrapping Up
85
@rivan.kurniawan rivankurniawandotcom
ValueInvestingIndonesia rivankurniawan
RIVAN KU RN IAWAN
W W W. R I V A N K U R N I AW A N . C O M
R I VA N . I N V ES T I N G @ G M A I L .CO M
0896-3045-2810 (JOHAN)
86

Market Outlook 2019 by RK - Fixed Share

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Market Outlook 2019

08.00 - 09.00 Registrasi

SESI 1 : MARKET REVIEW 2018

BBB- →BBB Baa3 →Baa2

Jun 2017 – Jun 2018

Rupiah stabil di Rp 13.500 – 13.800 / USD

USD – IDR Exchange Rate

3.4 Lira / USD (2017) 6.8 Lira / USD (Aug 2018)

- 5.5% (2017) -5.9% (Q3 2018)

7.3% (2017) 5.2% (Q2 2018)

10% (2017) 25% (Oct 2018)

8% (2017) 24% (Oct 2018)

1 USD = 5.3 TRY

1 USD = 3.8 TRY

9.9 VEB / USD (2017) 250,000 VEB / USD (Des 2018)

2.0% (2017) -3.0% (Q3 2018)

1.0% (2014) -16.6% (Q3 2018)

3.22% (2017) 833,997% (Oct 2018)

12.79% (2013) 21.9% (Sep 2018)

4.3 % (2017) 3.7% (Nov 2018)

-2.4% (2017) -2.0% (Q3 2018)

2.0% (2017) 3.0% (Q3 2018)

2.1% (2017) 2.2% (Oct 2018)

1.5% (2013) 2.25% (Nov 2018)

As Per 11 Jan 2019 :

How’s the Impact

Rp 13,500 / USD (2017) Rp 14.400/ USD (Des 2018)

-1.7% (2017) -3.0% (Q3 2018)

5.2% (2017) 5.2% (Q3 2018)

3.8% (2017) 3.2% (Oct 2018)

4.25% (2017) 6.0% (Nov 2018)

Target Inflasi dari BI :

Indonesia Inflation Rate 2018

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

SESI 2 : MARKET OUTLOOK 2019

Faktor yang mempengaruhi stock market 2019 :

CPO Price : The LOWEST in 5 Years

Oversupply from Indonesia

Oversupply especially from Malaysia

Source : Palm Oil Analytics

Stock batubara di China :

Rata-rata impor batubara China :

2018 : 15 juta ton / bulan

ADHI - 38% PTPP

* Per Oct 2018

Proyek Pemerintah Proyek Swasta

- GDP Growth : 5.2 – 5.3%

- Akses Jalan Tol dan - BI Rate 4.25% → 6%.. KPR?

- The Rise of Middle Income 2017 – 2018

- Property Credit Tightening

Ease of Doing Business in Indonesia 2008 - 2018

Minimum LDR : 80%

Maximum NPL : 2.0%

Indonesia GDP Per Capita 2008 - 2018

Indonesia Consumer Spending 2016 - 2018

Indonesia Retail Sales YoY 2013 - 2018

Net Profit Margin

Industri penunjang komponen lokal belum Penundaan Permendag No 82 tahun 2017

Election Mining -4.22%

Basic Industry +13.09%

Misc Industry +8.47%

Prop & Constr +55.76%

Trade & Services +13.11%