SENSITIVITY OF PRODUCTION DATA TO CALCULATED

ORIGINAL OIL-IN-PLACE USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL

MATHEMATICAL SIMULATOR

S.K. BHATIA

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RESERVOIR MODELLING JCPT76-04-08 JCPT-34 Sensitivity of Production Data To Calculated Original Oil-in-Place Using A One-Dimensional Mathematical Simulator S. K. Bhatia, Mobil Oil Canada, Ltd., Calgary, Alberta Abstract Errors in oil, gas and water production data are unavoidable. It has always been a matter of concern that these errors may have a serious effect on the results of model studies to determine the original oil-in-place. A one=dimensional, three-phase simulator study was undertaken to investigate the sensitivity of errors in production data on the original oil-in-
place calculation. The Rainbow Keg River AA pool in Alberta was as an example. This pool has had both water and gas injection and has experienced excess gas production. The presence of various production mechanisms, therefore, made the example a comprehensive one. After obtaining a suitable pressure history match of the pool using the field-measured oil and gas production data, the monthly production data were randomly changed by introducing a certain maximum error. The random production data were then used in subsequent model runs to evaluate their effect on the pressure history match.
The question of whether or not a chance would be required in the originally modelled oil-in-place to again obtain a good match was also evaluated. The present work indicates that the results of a simulator study to determine the original oil-in-place are insensitive to significant random errors in the monthly oil and gas production data. The per cent cumulative error decreases with time due to the random nature of the individual errors .t:heroerfdore, costly measures to refine the production da in er to improve oil, the accuracy of the oil-in-place determination are not
warranted. Abstract Errors in avoidable. It has always been a matter o' Introduction IT HAS OFTEN been argued that accuracy in produc- tion data is critical to the results of a model study to determine the original oil-in-place. Errors in the field-measured production data from a battery are intro(.iticed due to the practice of allocating the total _ heavy oil recovery of the Society o? registered Membe Engineers of Albe S. K. Bhatia, i's an Associate Engi- neer with Mobil Oil Canada, Limited in the Reservoir EngineerinL- Depart- ment. He joined Mobil in
f967 after receiving a B.Sc. (Honours) degree in petroleum engineering from Indian School of Mines, India, in 1965 and an M.Se. degree in petroleum en ',Ieer- ing from the University of lglb@rta. Edmonton, in 1967. He has held sev- on reservoir aluations and ciate Member AIME and a Professional Technology, Octo-ber-December, 1976, Montreal metered production in a month to individual wells based on one or more well tests and the number of daYs each well was on stream. Fluctuations in the well rates are normal and thus introduce an
error in the Production allocated to the well based on only one, two or rarely more tests per month. Errors in the pro- duction data can also be introduced due to incorrect gas chart. This paper examines the effect of the inaccuracies in the production data on the calculated original oil- . 'n-Place. A one-dimensional, three-phase, compressible fluid mathematical simulator was used for this pur- pose. Errors in the monthly oil and gas production data were introduced using a subroutine which gen- erates random numbers corresponding to a mean value and a given standard deviation. The
approach of using random numbers to evaluate the uncertainties in en- ineering ctlculations is not new and has been used g the past in connection with oil and gas reservoir in problems....... Unfortunately, there is no reference in the literature evaluating the sensitivity of the produc- tion data oji the calculated original oil-in-place, al- though Muskat recognized this problem, particularly regarding the uncertainty of the gas production data"'. An attempt has been made in this paper to evaluate this sensitivity. Procedure A one-dirn.erisional model study was conducted to see the
effect of the inaccuracies in the oil and gas _ production data on the calculation of original oil-in- place. The Rainbow Keg River AA Pool was selected as an exampl(@. The reasons for selecting this pool were the following: (a) The Rainbow Keg River AA Pool is one of the bigger pools in the Rainbow area, with over five years of pressure, production and injection data available, which is nee(led for a model study. (b) This particular pool has had both water and gas injection and excess gas production. Therefore, various Production m(@chanisms are in operation in the reser- voir, thus
making the example a rather comprehen- sive one. THE RESEFIVOIR The Rainbow Keg River AA Pool is located ap- proximately 400 miles northwest of Edmonton. It is a high-relief biohermal reef with both matrix and cavernous porosity. The pool was discovered in April 1967 when the well Mobil Rainbow NE 10-14-110-6 w6M encountered 414 feet of oil section in the Keg River reef formation. Six additional producers and one dry hole have been drilled since then. The gross oil pay map is shown as Figure 1. 85