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Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1 – 9

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Research report
The sales of antidepressants and suicide rates in Norway
and its counties 1980–2004
Jørgen G. Bramness a , Fredrik A. Walby b,c,⁎, Aage Tverdal a
a
Department of Pharmacoepidemiology, Division of Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
b
The Suicide Research and Prevention Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
c
Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway
Received 8 November 2006; received in revised form 30 November 2006; accepted 1 December 2006
Available online 16 January 2007

Abstract

Background: Suicide is a major public health problem and depression is among the most important risk factors for suicide.
Treatment of depression might prevent suicide. To study this hypothesis further we conducted an ecological study.
Methods: An ecological study using sales data for antidepressants and numbers of suicides in Norway and Norwegian counties
1980–2004 was performed. Data on alcohol consumption and unemployment rates were registered and taken into account. Data
were analyzed using Cochrane-Orcutt time series for the country as a whole. The county specific data were analyzed with a random
coefficient model with county as subject and intercept and time (slope) as random variables using an unstructured covariance
matrix.
Results: Sales of non-tricyclic antidepressants (non-TCAs) and suicide were clearly negatively related, even when controlling for
alcohol and unemployment (adjusted r2: 0.57). There was an effect modification between time and level of sales of non-TCAs.
Studying the relationship between the sales of non-TCAs and the suicide rate, we found that it was significant and stronger for the
low sales figures, but non-existent for the high sales figures.
Limitations: Ecological studies cannot infer causality.
Conclusions: The fall in suicide rates in Norway and its counties was related to the increased sales of non-TCAs. The effect was
mostly a result of a sales increase in the lower sales segment, indicating that a change from the more toxic TCAs, or heightened
awareness of depression and its treatment, could explain the relationship found between sales of newer antidepressants and a
decrease in suicide rate.
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Antidepressant; SSRI; Suicide; Ecological study; Pharmacoepidemiology

1. Introduction

Mental health disorders are important causes of


suicide (Harris and Barraclough, 1997), and particularly
⁎ Corresponding author. The Suicide Research and Prevention Unit,
important are affective disorders, because different
University of Oslo, Sognsvannsveien 21, Bygning 12, 2. etg., NO-
subtypes are found among about 60% of suicides in
0320 Oslo, Norway. Tel.: +47 22 92 34 73; fax: +47 22 92 39 58. the general population (Cavanagh et al., 2003). The risk
E-mail address: fredrik.walby@medisin.uio.no (F.A. Walby). of suicide also increases with the severity of the
0165-0327/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jad.2006.12.002
2 J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9

depressive episode (Kessing, 2004). Treatment of such 2. Method


conditions is thought to be beneficial in the prevention
of suicide. The introduction of newer antidepressants, 2.1. Sources of data
and especially the selective serotonin reuptake inhibi-
tors (SSRIs), at the start of the 1990s accelerated the Suicide rates were provided by Statistics Norway.
diagnosis and treatment of depression. Far more people The figures are given in deaths by suicide per 100,000
were exposed to drugs that could alleviate depression. inhabitants. Suicide rates were available for the country
Together with this increase in sales of antidepressants, as a whole from 1980 to 2004, but only up to 2003 when
many western countries experienced a decline in their dealt with by the county. Statistics Norway also supplied
national suicide rates. Several researchers, particularly data on sales of alcohol for the years 1980–2004,
Isacsson (Isacsson, 2000), have promoted the idea that although data from 1998 were missing. Alcohol sales
these two phenomena are related and increased data were available only for the country as a whole.
treatment of depression has led to the observed decline. Figures are given in liters of pure ethanol sold through
Although suicide is a major public health issue, it is a official channels per person in Norway (all ages).
rare phenomenon at an individual level. Only very large, Unemployment figures were taken as a proxy for the
possibly unsustainable, randomized controlled trials state of the economic climate, and were provided by the
(RCTs) would, by themselves, have enough power to Norwegian employment agency through Statistics Nor-
demonstrate any difference in suicide rate between a way. These data were available for 1980–2004 across
treatment and a placebo. Meta-analysis of such studies counties. The figures are presented as the number of
could, to some extent, overcome this (Khan et al., 2003; people registered unemployed as a percentage of the
Gunnell et al., 2005). The follow-up time of RCTs total population.
included in the meta-analysis is, however, too short to Drug sales data were taken from the wholesale
capture the whole at-risk period for suicide in register at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. All
connection with depression. Furthermore, suicidality is data were per county and calendar year for the years
usually an exclusion criterion in such trials, because of 1980–2003. County-specific data for 1981 were not
ethical constrains and practical difficulties. available. Data on wholesale figures for drugs were
Ecological investigations into the relationship be- collected from all drug wholesalers in Norway, and
tween the sales of newer antidepressants and suicide represent total sales to pharmacies, institutions, etc. Even
rates have been performed in several countries, with if these data were complete, drugs sold are not of course
varying time spans, different age groups, and various necessarily consumed. However, for the purpose of
types of co-variates and statistical approaches (Table 1). comparing regions or countries, and looking for trends,
With the exception of the studies in Iceland, Italy and these figures will probably provide reliable information.
Slovenia, which have not shown a decline in suicide All drugs on the Norwegian market are classified into
rates, most of these studies find that the increased sales groups according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chem-
of newer antidepressants seem to be related to the ical (ATC) classification. The sales figures were
decrease in suicide rate. This is also found in other calculated and presented as numbers of defined daily
communications from Hungary (Rihmer et al., 2001; doses (DDDs)/1000 inhabitants per day at the group
Rihmer, 2003) and Britain (Gunnell and Ashby, 2004). level for the active ingredient (ATC fourth or fifth level)
What separates them are the result interpretations, (WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Meth-
ranging from a belief in a causal relationship to stating odology, 2005). Sales figures were calculated for the
that sales figures are indirect measures of better following groups of drugs: tricyclic antidepressants
diagnosis of depression and more treatment optimism, (TCAs) (ATC code N06AA: desipramine, imipramine,
or even that the relationship is purely spurious. clomipramine, opipramol, trimipramine, amitriptyline,
The aim of the current study was to investigate the nortriptyline and doxepin), selective serotonin reuptake
relationship between antidepressant sales and suicide inhibitors (SSRIs) (N06AB: fluoxetine, citalopram,
rates as seen in Norway as a whole, and in its counties, on paroxetine, sertraline, fluvoxamine and escitalopram)
the basis of observations made from 1980 to 2004. As a and other antidepressants (N06AG: moclobemide and
completed suicide is not just a matter of mental illness N06AX: mianserin, nefazodone, mirtazepine, venlafax-
and its treatment, we also included data on alcohol ine and reboxetine). In the analysis all these sales figures
consumption and unemployment as confounders, both of were either grouped together (all antidepressants) or the
which have been found to be related to national suicide SSRIs and other antidepressants were grouped together
rates (Rossow, 2005; Platt and Hawton, 2006). as the non-TCAs.
J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9 3

Table 1
Ecological studies addressing the relationship between sales of antidepressants (ADs) and suicides rates in different countries and by different models
Reference Years studied Study area Co-variates in addition Statistical methods Main findings
to ADs
Barbui et al. 1988–1996 Italian regions Gender Suicide rates Increase in SSRI sales gave higher
(1999) plotted against AD sales, but no effect on suicide rate
AD sales
Carlsten et al. 1977–1997 Sweden Age, gender Time series two A significant change in suicide rate
(2001) slope model coincided with the introduction of
SSRIs, but preceded the high increase
in SSRI sales
Gibbons et al. 1996–1998 5–14 year olds, USA Age, gender, Mixed effect Increases in prescriptions for non-TCAs
(2006) county comparison income, race Poisson regression were associated with lower suicide
rates between counties and over time
Gibbons et al. 1996–1998 USA county Age, gender, Mixed effect Increases in prescriptions for non-TCAs
(2005) comparison income, race Poisson regression were associated with lower suicide
rates between counties and over time
Grunebaum 1985–1999 USA Unemployment, alcohol Generalized linear Decline in national suicide rates
et al. consumption model are associated with sales of non-TCAs
(2004)
Guaiana et al. 1955–2000 Italy Gender Descriptive The increase in AD sales did not
(2005) explain the decrease in suicide rate
Hall et al. 1991–2000 Australia Age, gender Spearman's rank Changes in suicide rates and exposure
(2003) correlation to ADs are significantly associated
Helgason et al. 1950–2000 Iceland Alcohol consumption, Quasi-Poisson Increased prescribing of ADs is not
(2004) psychiatric admissions model related to lower suicide rates
and outpatient visits,
disability pension
Henriksson 1990–1994 vs Sweden, one county Sales of ADs Descriptive AD sales increased and suicide
and Isacsson 1995–2002 rates decreased in context of GP
(2006) educational program
Kelly et al. 1989–1999 Ireland Unemployment rate, Linear regression Increased antidepressant prescribing
(2003) alcohol expenditure, effective in reducing suicides
terrorist offences
Isacsson 1978–1996 Sweden (compared Age, gender, Spearman's The increased use of ADs appears
(2000) with Denmark, unemployment rates, correlation to be associated with the decrease
Norway and Finland) alcohol consumption coefficient in suicide rate
Ludwig and 1980–1999 26 European GPD/capita, divorce Logistic regression The increased sales of SSRIs may
Marcotte (every countries (including and unemployment rate with fixed effects have saved lives
(2005) 5 years) Norway) and the
USA
Morgan et al. 1993–2002 England AD-related deaths Spearman's rank Increased prescribing of ADs is
(2004) correlation accompanied by lower suicide rates
Olfson et al. 1989 vs 2000/ 10–19 year olds in Age, gender, Adjusted linear An inverse relationship between
(2003) 2001 US regions income and race regression sales and suicide rates raises a
possibility for suicide prevention
effect of ADs
Oravecz et al. 1985–1997 Slovenia Correlations No correlation was found between
(2003) sales of antidepressants and suicide rate
Reseland et al. 1961–2001 Norway, Sweden, Joint point analysis Mixed evidence that SSRI sales
(2006) Denmark, Finland coincide with decline in suicide rate
GDP, gross domestic product; SSRIs, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors; TCAs, tricyclic antidepressants.

2.2. Statistical analysis and time as fixed effects and intercept and time (slope)
as a random effect using an unstructured covariance
2.2.1. Model for sales of antidepressants matrix. The antidepressant group used for further analy-
The relationship between suicide rate and antide- sis was chosen on the basis of the lowest value for the
pressant sales was studied using a random coefficient Akaike information criterion (AIC) (Lindsey and Jones,
model, with county as subject, sales of antidepressants 1998).
4 J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9

Fig. 1. Relationship between suicide rate (deaths in suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per year) and sales of non-tricyclic antidepressants (defined daily
doses or DDDs/1000 inhabitants per day) in Norway, 1980–2004.

2.2.2. The whole country 3. Results


For the country as a whole we performed a Cochrane-
Orcutt time series analysis (Cochran and Orcutt, 1949). 3.1. Model for sales of antidepressants
Models were run with antidepressants, alcohol consump-
tion and unemployment rates as independent variables. Three models using drug sales figures as independent
The regression coefficient (β) with 95% confidence variables and suicide rate as dependent variable were
interval (95% CI) and the ability of the independent used:
variables to explain variation in the dependent variable
(R2) was calculated. 1. The relationship between suicide rates and sales fig-
ures for all antidepressants.
2.2.3. The 19 counties 2. The relationship between suicide rates and sales
When studying the 19 different counties of Norway, a figures for non-TCAs.
random effect model was used with county as subject, 3. The relationship between suicide rates and sales
suicide rates in counties as the dependent variable, sales of figures for SSRIs.
antidepressants, unemployment rates and time as fixed
effects, and intercept and time (slope) as random effects Only the main effects were studied. The model
using an unstructured covariance matrix. We did not have giving the best fit was option 2: the relationship
alcohol figures for each county and the analyses were between suicide rate and sales of non-TCAs. We
performed without this variable. We checked for interac- chose this model because it produced the lowest AIC
tions between two and two variables (time ⁎ AD sales, value, even if the differences between the models
time ⁎ unemployment rates and AD sales ⁎ unemployment were moderate (Raferty, 1995). Model 2 was therefore
rates) adding one interaction to the mixed model at a time. used throughout.

Table 2
Cochrane-Orcutt statistics for the relationship between the dependent variable of national suicide rate and the independent variables of sales of non-
tricyclic antidepressants (non-TCAs), alcohol consumption and unemployment rate in the whole of Norway, 1980–2004
Crude p value R2 Adjusted a p value R2
Regression coefficient (95% CI) Regression coefficient (95% CI)
Sales of non-TCAs − 0.090 (− 0.136 to − 0.042) 0.001 0.47 − 0.105 (− 0.180 to − 0.028) 0.010
Alcohol consumption − 1.239 (− 2.712 to 0.393) 0.129 0.12 0.402 (− 2.541 to 3.346) 0.774 0.57
Unemployment figures − 0.161 (− 1.450 to 1.126) 0.797 0.00 − 0.298 (− 1.806 to 1.228) 0.689
a
Adjusted for sales of non-TCA antidepressants, alcohol consumption, unemployment figures and time.
J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9 5

Fig. 2. Relationship between suicide rate (deaths in suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per year) and sales figures for alcohol (liters of pure alcohol per
inhabitant) in Norway, 1980–2004. Figures for 1998 could not be obtained.

3.2. The whole country using all 19 Norwegian counties. We had no alcohol
consumption data at a county level, but the inverse
The Cochrane-Orcutt statistics showed that the sales relationship between suicide rates and sales figures was
of non-TCAs were related to suicide rate (Fig. 1), even clearly present after an adjustment for unemployment
when adjusting for alcohol consumption, unemployment rate (Table 3).
rate and time (Table 2). Alcohol consumption (Fig. 2) When performing the analysis on the relationship
and unemployment rate (Fig. 3) were not significantly between sales of non-TCAs and suicide rate at a county
related to suicide rate (Table 2). level, the interaction between sales of non-TCAs and
time was significant (estimate fixed effect = 0.049, 95%
3.3. Norwegian counties CI = 0.009–0.089, p = 0.018), indicating that the rela-
tionship between sales of non-TCAs and suicide rate
Using a random coefficient model, we also found an was different at different times. To further address this
inverse relationship between suicide rates and sales interaction, we performed an analysis at the county level
figures for non-TCAs when the analysis was performed after stratifying the sales figures of antidepressants into

Fig. 3. Relationship between suicide rate (deaths in suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per year) and unemployment rates (number of registered
unemployed per 1000 inhabitants) in Norway, 1980–2004.
6 J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9

Table 3
The relationship between sales of non-TCAs, unemployment rate and suicide rate in Norwegian counties 1980–2003 using a random coefficient
model with county as subjects, suicide rate as dependant variable, sales of antidepressants, unemployment rate and time as fixed effects and intercept
and time (slope) as random effects
Crude p value Adjusted a p value
Estimate for fixed effects (95% CI) Estimate for fixed effects (95% CI)
Sales of non-TCAs −0.136 (− 0.174 to − 0.097) b0.001 −0.159 (− 0.210 to − 0.108) b0.001
Unemployment figures 0.834 (0.341 to 1.328) 0.001 −0.409 (− 1.025 to 0.206) 0.192

Low sales of non-TCAs


Sales of non-TCAs −0.462 (− 0.635 to − 0.290) b0.001 −0.466 (− 0.639 to − 0.293) b0.001
Unemployment figures −0.279 (− 1.097 to 0.538) 0.502 −0.382 (− 1.165 to 0.401) 0.337

High sales of non-TCAs


Sales of non-TCAs −0.024 (− 0.130 to 0.081) 0.643 −0.026 (− 0.135 to 0.083) 0.631
Unemployment figures −0.560 (− 1.689 to 0.568) 0.328 −0.584 (− 1.718 to 0.549) 0.310
a
Adjusted for sales of non-TCAs, unemployment figures and time.

low and high sales of non-TCAs, according to whether many counties, and for the country as a whole, this
the sales were lower or higher than the mean sales of 16 increase came soon after the introduction of non-TCAs
DDDs/1000 inhabitants per day. These analyses showed at the start of the 1990s. It could be that the change from
that the relationship between sales of non-TCAs and the more toxic TCAs was beneficial, or that groups not
suicide rates was significant and stronger for the low previously treated, despite clear depression, were now
sales figures, but non-existent for the high sales figures more likely to receive treatment for depression. The
(Table 3). To check for other possible explanations for increased awareness and treatment optimism among
this interaction the same analyses were also performed general practitioners (GPs) could also have had an
for different counties (low versus high sales counties) or impact. From the mid-1990s, there has been a marked
different time periods (early versus late time period). increase in alcohol consumption, with no corresponding
The interaction was not explained by differences increase in suicide rate. The relationship between
between high and low sales counties or between early alcohol use, antidepressant sales and suicide rates may
years (with low sales) and later years (with higher sales). have obscured any relation between antidepressant sales
and suicide rates from that point on.
4. Discussion Ecological studies cannot infer causality. In the study
of the public health impact of increased sales of
This ecological study of the increase in sales of antidepressants it may still be the best type of study
antidepressants and fall in suicide rate in Norway and its obtainable. As suicide is a relative rare event, even in
counties found a clear, statistically significant associa- patients treated for depression (Gunnell et al., 2005;
tion between these two variables. Suicide rates seemed to Simon et al., 2006), it could be difficult to conduct
fall mostly in association with an increase in the sales of sufficiently large RCTs to investigate the relationship
non-TCAs. The relationship was prominent for sales between suicide and antidepressant treatment. The
figures that were below average, and not for higher sales problem of statistical power may be overcome by meta-
figures, indicating that an initial increase in sales was analysis of RCTs. Two such comprehensive meta-analysis
related more to a decrease in suicide rate. Adjustment for (Khan et al., 2003; Gunnell et al., 2005) reported no
alcohol consumption and unemployment rates, which impact on suicide rate of active treatment and possibly an
have both been reported to be associated with suicide rate increase in self-harm in the treated patients. This increase
in other studies, did not alter the relationship. may be attributable to the known clinical phenomenon of
The magnitude of the effect would be that an increase increased suicide risk associated with increased psycho-
in the sales of non-TCAs by 12–13 DDDs/1000 inhab- motor activity, together with continuing depression in the
itants per day could save one suicide per 100,000 first weeks after starting antidepressant therapy, or the
inhabitants. However, when considering only the low induction of manic episodes in patients with bipolar
sales figures, the impact would be that an increase of disorder (Rihmer and Akiskal, 2006) and should probably
only about 2 DDDs in the sales of non-TCAs would not be regarded as evidence against the over all effect of
save one suicide per 100,000 inhabitants per year. For antidepressants. On the other hand RCTs provide data on
J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9 7

an individual level and may pick up smaller effects than reproduce earlier results from Norway that indicated a
ecological studies, such as increased suicidality at the increase in suicide rate coinciding with increasing sales
onset of treatment. Then again, even if meta-analyses may in alcohol from 1975 to 1988 (Rossow, 1995). This
solve the problem of statistical power, most RCTs are too illustrates the dilemma of ecological studies. We cannot
short to be able to predict the public health benefit of refute the earlier studies, only accept the current results
antidepressant treatment in the longer term. These factors as additional information. The discrepancies in the
may explain the possible discrepancy between RCTs and results could possibly be explained by the sharp increase
ecological studies. in alcohol consumption after 1993 (Fig. 2), together
Factors other than sales of antidepressants may explain with the steady decline in suicide rates. It is also possible
the observed relationship. Such factors could be better that increased rates of antidepressant sales have protect-
diagnosis of depression and more treatment optimism ed against the increased suicide rates expected with
among healthcare professionals. This is supported by increased alcohol consumption, given that, in the
earlier research. The Gotland study demonstrated that general population, the combination of depression and
education directed at GPs rather than psychiatrists had an alcohol abuse or dependence seems to be a potent risk
effect (Rihmer et al., 1995; Rutz, 2001). GPs see most of factor for suicide (Cavanagh et al., 2003). The limitation
the depressed patients and prescribe most of the dispensed within the data may also be an explanation, because the
antidepressants. The effects seen in the Gotland study official sales statistics for alcohol are only an indicator
came at a time when the older antidepressants were still of what is consumed. Much alcohol will be bought tax
being used. Our findings indicate that the effect of free abroad or come from illegal sources.
increased antidepressant treatment was more pronounced Our study has the advantage of covering a long time
when sales figures for antidepressants were low. Increas- span (1980–2003), although not the longest of the cited
ing the sales at this time point probably meant offering studies (Table 1). There is a tendency for the studies
treatment to the individuals with the most apparent including the longest time series (Italy and Iceland) not
depression. There seems to be a dose–response relation- to have found any relationship between sales figures and
ship between severity of depression and suicide risk suicide rate, mostly as a result of stable suicide rates
(Kessing, 2004), and the early increase might represent despite increases in antidepressant sales (Barbui et al.,
antidepressants being given mainly to those with the most 1999; Helgason et al., 2004; Guaiana et al., 2005). In
severe depression. The relationship was not present when some of the countries without a relationship between
sales were increased beyond a certain level, indicating no sales of antidepressant sales and suicide rate there was
effect when more marginal groups had been offered only little increase in antidepressant sales (Barbui et al.,
treatment. We must bear in mind that we used suicide as 1999; Oravecz et al., 2003), offering an explanation to
an outcome and that results may differ using other mental the conflicting results. In the current study we found a
health outcomes. relationship also with a longer observation period, but
Suicide prevention plans have been offered as another the largest effect seemed to be related to the introduction
explanation for the decline in suicide trends in many of non-TCAs.
western countries. Such a national suicide prevention Lastly, the observed relationship could be a spurious
plan was implemented in Norway during 1994–2002, finding. Researchers have argued that suicide rates will
and could possibly provide an alternative explanation for vary over time for many unknown reasons (Gmel et al.,
our findings. However, the effect of national suicide 1998). In times of declining suicide rates, credit for this
prevention plans lacks sufficient evidence (De Leo, change will be taken by different interventions. The
2002). A recent systematic review of suicide prevention Gotland study has been criticized from this point of view
strategies indicated that GP education was one of the (Berglund et al., 2001). When looking at the relationship
most powerful interventions for preventing suicide between sales of newer antidepressants and suicide
(Mann et al., 2005). It is reasonable to believe that GP rates, choosing other time windows and other regions
education given at the time of introduction of newer may also make the relationship disappear (Kahn et al.,
antidepressants was important in increasing awareness 1992). Both in Norway (Reseland et al., 2006) and in
of depression as a problem. Sweden (Isacsson, 2000; Carlsten et al., 2001), there
In our study, we control for a few important co- was a remarkable drop in suicide rates at the start of the
variates that were thought to be related to suicide rates. 1990s, coinciding with the introduction of SSRIs.
Alcohol consumption has been shown, in some but not Ecological studies cannot prove that a drop in suicide
other studies, to be related to national suicide trends rates is related to increased treatment of depression. On
(Sher, 2005). In the current study we were not able to the other hand, many ecological studies from different
8 J.G. Bramness et al. / Journal of Affective Disorders 102 (2007) 1–9

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