Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776

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Applied Geography
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Landscape transformations in savannas of northern South America: Land use/

cover changes since 1987 in the Llanos Orientales of Colombia
M.H. Romero-Ruiz a, *, S.G.A. Flantua b, K. Tansey a, J.C. Berrio a
a
Department of Geography, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
b
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam, The Netherlands

a b s t r a c t
Keywords: This study presents a detailed spatial, quantitative assessment of the land use/cover changes (LUCC) in
Land-use/land-cover change the savanna region of Llanos Orientales in Colombia. LUCC was determined from multitemporal satellite
Colombia
imagery (Landsat and CBERS) from 1987 to 2007. Systematic landscape transitions were identified and
Savannas
Llanos Orientales
put in the context of population change and economic activity. The results showed that during the period
Systematic transitions 1987 to 2007, 14% of the study area underwent some kind of land use/cover change, with most change
occurring in the last decade. Systematic transitions were observed from flooded savannas to crops and
exotic pastures. An important land cover change was linked to the expansion of palm oil plantations from
31 km2 in 1987 to 162 km2 in 2007. The observed changes are shown to be related to the economic and
market-oriented-development from before 1970 to the present day. Based on the future economic
development plans, the Llanos Orientales will continue to undergo significant change as an estimated
70% of the 17,000 km2 have been identified for conversion to plantation, or for petroleum and mining
purposes. We provide recommendations for future economy integrated conservation, by proposing the
implementation of a Llanos ecological network.
Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction
Since the early twentieth century, the Colombian savannas, and
likely others in the tropical region, were used in a traditional way
to produce goods and services for local communities by fishing,
hunting and harvesting activities (Etter, McAlpine, & Possingham,
2008). Changes occurred in the 1980s through the establishment
of large-scale intensive agriculture and increasing human pop-
ulations. An increase in and diversification of the agricultural
lands took place, such as an expansion of mono-specific African
palm (Elaeis guineensis) and rice plantations. Meanwhile, cattle
ranch expansion and infrastructural projects were encouraged by
economic internationalization (Correa, Ruiz, & Arevalo, 2006).
Consequently in the present day, a wide range of factors will impact
on the natural ecosystem functioning of the region, such as the
overall expansion of road infrastructure, petroleum activities,
mining, monocultures and illicit crops (Baptsite, 2006; Rausch,
2009). Politically, the region has been transformed from a neglec-
ted frontier into a zone of primary national significance and high
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 571 2018247; fax: þ44 571 2018326.
E-mail addresses: milher67@yahoo.com (M.H. Romero-Ruiz), flantua2880@
gmail.com (S.G.A. Flantua), kjt7@le.ac.uk (K. Tansey), jcb34@le.ac.uk (J.C. Berrio).
hopes have been placed on the region to provide future economic
growth. The intensification of land use and high population growth
has turned the region into one of the most threatened ecosystems in
Colombia.
Despite their considerable geographical area, one quarter of
Colombia’s territory, the Colombian savannas have received limited
conservation attention in comparison to the better known
ecosystems such as the Amazon and Andes forests (Furley, 1999).
After the Cerrados of Brasil, the Colombian savannas, called the
Llanos Orientales, constitute the second largest savanna system in
South America (Olson et al., 2001). The Llanos Orientales are of
international importance because they contain over 55% of the
country’s wetlands, 40% of the subterraneous water of the country
(IDEAM, 2010), 46% and 40% of Colombian fish (Maldonado-Campo,
Bogotá-Gregory, & Usma, 2009) and bird (Umaña-Villaveces,
Murillo, Restrepo-Calle, & Alvarez-Rebolledo, 2009) species. Addi-
tionally, they form important corridors for many species of
mammals and reptiles, such as the jaguar, which migrate between
the Amazon, Guiana and Andes regions (Romero-Ruiz et al., 2009,
151 pp). Currently only 5% of this savanna ecosystem is adminis-
trated as a National Protected Area.
Several studies have attempted to describe the development of
the region (Becerra et al., 2009, pp. 144; Rausch, 2009). The largest

0143-6228/$ e see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.08.010
 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776
national journal published a special edition in 2011 dedicated to
describing the history of the Llanos Orientales and portraying the
high economic expectations of the region for the coming 50 years
(Publicaciones Semana S.A., 2011). Accurate, independent, esti-
mates of land use/cover change do not exist. Instead reported
values are based on rough figures from the different production
sectors. Understandably, difficulties arise when trying to predict
impacts of land use when accurate data is not available.
The conventional method of assessing land change is to compare
bi-temporal maps based on satellite imagery and to produce land
use/cover change matrices (Muñoz-Villares & Lopez-Blanco, 2008;
Weng, 200 ). Based on these data, the focus is primarily on how
much, where, and what type of land-cover change has occurred.
The rate of change is derived by dividing the net change with the
number of years between times 1 and 2, or large inter-LUC category
transitions in terms of percent of landscape (Braimoh, 2006).
However, such analyses neglect the fact that net change does not
necessarily imply a lack of change, as a simultaneous gain and loss
of a given land-cover type in different locations even out as zero net
change. Furthermore, under a random process of change it is
expected that large changes occur between the largest land-cover
categories. These transitions do not necessarily constitute the
most systematic landscape change. Land-cover changes should be
interpreted relative to the size of the categories. Only a small
number of other studies have realized the importance of a detailed
analysis and considered an extension of the various components of
the transition matrix by considering net change and land cover
category proportions. These include case studies in Ghana (Alo
& Pontius, 2008), Ethiopia (Tsegaye, Moe, Vedeld, & Aynekulu,
2010), Australia (Manandhar, Odeh, & Pontius, 2010) and Japan
(Shoyama & Braimoh, 2011).
This paper presents, for the first time, a detailed quantitative
assessment of the land use/cover changes (LUCC) in the savannas of
eastern Colombia. The analysis was performed in the context of the
background of the economic factors associated with land use/cover
changes since the 1970s and specifically between 1987 and 2007.
The objectives of the study are to: (i) show the spatial patterns of
land use/cover changes (LUCC) in the region since 1987; (ii) identify
Fig. 1. The study area showing States, rivers, urban areas, international boundaries, protected areas and indigenous territories against the backdrop of an elevation data set.
767
systematic landscape transitions; and (iii) assess spatial patterns of
LUCC in the context of economic and demographic drivers.
Study area
The Llanos Orientales are found in the eastern part of Colombia
and southwest Venezuela located between 2.5 to 7 N and 74
to 67.5 E. Sixty-five percent of these savannas are located in
Venezuela, the rest being found in Colombia (Romero-Ruiz, Galindo,
Otero, & Armenteras, 2004). Altitude ranges between 200 and
1200 m.a.s.l. The study area comprises the savanna ecosystem that
lies within the Colombian national territory, covering an area of
17,000 km2. The southern and western boundaries are the
ecosystem transition zones between, respectively, the Amazonian
tropical rainforest and the mountainous Andean tropical rainforest
(Fig. 1).
The census of 2005 showed a population of 1,712,454 inhabi-
tants, representing 4.5% of the Colombian population. The four main
towns (Villavicencio, Yopal, Arauca and Puerto Carreño) contribute
78% of the regional population. 40% of the population originate from
other regions of the country (DANE e Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadistica, 2005). Land tenure includes privately
owned ranches (>80% of area), as well as 62 indigenous reserves
with a total area of 1340 km2 with 4700 habitants and the National
Park ‘El Tuparro’ of 548 km2 (Romero-Ruiz, Etter, Sarmiento, &
Tansey, 2010). In Colombia, natural reserves and indigenous terri-
tories are defined as indissoluble, indefeasible and imprescriptible.
Indigenous communities have the right to control and decide on
activities within their territories without intervention of others.
Methodology
Classification of land use/cover (LUC)
Land use/cover changes were determined from land cover maps
at scale 1:100,000 over the period between 1987 and 2007. Satellite
images, Landsat and CBERS (China e Brazil Earth Resources Satel-
lite), were used to derive LUC maps in 1987e8, 2000e1 and
768 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776

2006e7. The interpretation of the images follows a series of
processes that have been applied in a wide number of LUC studies
(Cihlar, 2000; Dewan & Yamaguchi, 2009; Lambin, Geist, & Leper,
2003; Vasconcelos, Mussá Biai, Araújo, & Diniz, 2002). The satel-
lite images were geo-referenced using between 15 and 30 ground
control points distributed across each image. The overall accuracy
of the transformation, expressed as a Root Mean Squared (RMS)
error, was between 0.4 and 0.7 pixels (1 pixel ¼ 30 m). A nearest
neighbour algorithm was used to resample the CBERS images from
the original 20 m resolution to the 30 m pixel size of the Landsat
images. The images were pre-processed for radiometric calibration
and atmospheric correction. Image enhancement was performed
using a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), linear contrast
stretching and histogram equalization. Clouds, shadows and water
were masked using an unsupervised classification algorithm. A
water-mask was applied to separate water and wetlands from the
other categories.
A supervised classification was chosen as the most appropriate
methodology to derive the land cover classification. The method
was considered to be appropriate as both objective and quantitative
criteria can be employed, statistical algorithms can be used, and
secondary information (e.g. fieldwork data and previous knowl-
edge of the area) can be used to guide the classification. Further-
more, the method is considered consistent and reproducible
(Garcia & Mass, 2008, pp. 7e19). A maximum likelihood algorithm
was applied. This was achieved by extracting different spectral
statistical categories through areas of control, called training areas.
These areas were categorized using the six non-thermal bands of
Landsat images, and four visible and infrared bands of CBERS
and a Gaussian maximum likelihood algorithm. Post-serial filters
were applied to eliminate isolated pixels. Using the author’s
field knowledge, manual revision was necessary to correct some
errors in the classification. A number of categories were difficult to
separate due to surface water fluctuation and the fire regime. Non-
continuous rivers, infrastructure and natural gallery forest were
digitized manually. A modified version of Corine Land Cover legend
for Colombia, scale 1:100,000 (IDEAM, IGAC & CORMAGDALENA,
2008), was used for the LUC classification of the satellite images.
Two classes were considered in this study, Non-Natural which
corresponds to areas altered by human activity, and Natural which
corresponds to areas where human intervention does not or barely
affects the structure and composition of the vegetation. Table 1
shows a summary of the eleven classes that were identified. The
accuracy of the classified images was verified with aerial photog-
raphy and fieldwork data. A Kappa coefficient of was 83.9% was
achieved, an acceptable standard for this type of classification map
(Meidinger, 2003).
Quantification of LUC change
A detailed analysis of the transition matrix, determined from
land cover maps at known times, is necessary to gain an insight into
the likely processes that drive LUCC patterns. In order to address
this objective, this paper applies the methodology for systematic
transition assessment by analysing the transition matrix in detail.
Pontius, Shusas, and McEachern (2004) was the first to introduce
the methodology for determining these transitions. A landscape
transition is random if a land-cover category gains from other
categories in proportion to the availability of those other losing
categories, or if a category loses to other categories in proportion to
the size of those other gaining categories. Any large deviation from
those proportions is referred to as a systematic transition. This
technique was further advanced by accounting for persistence in
detecting land change. Persistence is the static constancy state of
the landscape between times 1 and 2 (Pontius et al., 2004). At the
moment of judging a model’s success by comparing predicted
versus a reference map, the usual high percent that indicates
correctness is normally attributable to the persistence. To avoid
overrated confidence in the model’s capabilities due to a static
landscape, Pontius et al. (2004) proposed the use of two pairs of
components: gross gains and gross losses, and net change and
swap. Whereas net change is attributable to change in quantity,
swap change is attributable to change in allocation. Swap is the
simultaneous gain and loss of a given land-cover type in different
locations.
Firstly, the categories that showed limited or no change in area
during the analysed periods, namely water, wetlands, rocky crops
and sandy savannas, were removed from the LUCC assessment. Two
cross tabulation matrices were generated, for the 1987e2000 and
2000e7 transitions, by overlaying LUC maps from the different
years. This method allows a pixel by pixel comparison and has the
benefit of producing detailed from-to information (Braimoh, 2006;

Table 1
Description of natural and non-natural land use/cover categories for the Llanos Orientales. Adapted from: IDEAM, IGAC & CORMAGDALENA (2008).

Classes Category Description

Non-natural Infrastructure Cities, towns, areas covered by road infrastructure such as roads, highways and bridges and airports.
Plantation Coverage dominated by palm oil (Elaeis guineensis), perennial stem solitary pinnate leaves belonging to the family Arecaceae.
Crops and Land occupied by introduced grasses (Poaceae), the production oriented management practices (cleaning, liming and/or
Exotic pastures fertilizer, etc.) and a certain level of technology used to prevent the presence or development of other types of land cover
and assigned as grazing area for a period of two years or more. Units that include two kinds of agriculture (pastures and
crops) arranged in an intricate pattern of geometric mosaics that makes it difficult to separate them in individual geometric
arrangements. Generally the plot size is very small (less than 25 ha).
Natural Forest Plant community dominated by trees with height above 15 m, which form a closed crown (canopy) of more or less
continuous coverage. This category includes gallery forest which forms narrow strips of forest networks dominated by
trees associated with palms and scrubs elements, located around permanent or temporary flooded banks of rivers and creeks.
High savannas Plant community dominated by herbaceous elements typically developed naturally, which form a dense cover (>70%
occupancy). This cover is developed in areas which are not subject to periodically flooding, and may have trees and/or
scattered shrubs elements.
Flooded savannas Plant community dominated by herbaceous elements typically developed naturally, which forms a dense cover (>70%
occupancy). This cover develops in areas subject to periodically flooding, and may or not have tree and/or scattered shrubs
elements.
Sandy savannas Plant community dominated by open herbaceous vegetation with coverage between 30% and 70%. No presence of tree.
Developed on areas of sandy soils that do not retain moisture.
Secondary vegetation Correspond to a forest or woodland area which has re-grown after a major disturbance.
Rocky outcrops Areas where the ground surface consists of layers of exposed rocks, without development of vegetation.
Wetland Lowlands, usually flooded during most of the year such as flood plains, ancient valleys and natural depressions.
Water Natural streams of water flowing continuously and water surface reservoirs, open or closed, fresh or brackish, which
may or may not be connected with a river.
 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776 769

Jensen, 2000). The off-diagonal entries comprise the proportions of
the landscape that experienced transition from one category to
a different category, while the on-diagonal entries indicate persis-
tence of categories. The row totals at the right denote the propor-
tion of the landscape by LUC category in 1987 and the column totals
at the bottom denote the proportion of landscape by category in
2000, equally presented in the 2000e7 matrix. The cross tabulation
matrices of 1987e2000 and 2000e7 are extended to derive the
gross gains and gross losses by categories. The gross gain for each
category is derived by subtracting the persistence from the column
total, while the gross loss is computed by subtracting the persis-
tence from the row total. Loss-to-persistence ratio (i.e. loss/
persistence) and gain-to-persistence ratio (i.e. gain/persistence)
were also derived to assess the tendency of each LUC category to
lose to and to gain from other categories, using an approach
developed by Braimoh (2006).
LUCC in terms of the net changes and swap changes are
derived from the extended cross tabulation matrix. The total
change for a category is the sum of its gross gain and its gross loss.
The net change for a category is the difference between the gross
gain and gross loss, i.e. difference between the row total and the
column total for a given category in the matrix. The swap change
for a category is the total change minus the net change for the
category.
Demographic and economic data
The results of the LUCC analysis were discussed in the context of
population tendencies, the regional economic development and
future projections for the region. Consolidated official data were
considered, originating from different sources of information, such
as the Integrated System of Monitoring of Illicit Cultivations (SIMCI,
2009), the plans of development by the government (DNP, 2007),
potential map of palm oil plantations (Corzo, Sarmiento, & Arcila-
Burgos, 2009, pp. 1e87), national petroleum map (ANH, 2010),
national mining map (Ingeominas, 2011) and cartographic and
thematic base maps (IGAC, 1999). Demographic information was
obtained from the census data at department level for the periods
of 1973, 1993, 2005 by the National Department of Statistics
(DANE). With these census data, the population density (habitants
per km2) for each department was calculated and the rate of pop-
ulation increase was defined using the formula proposed by
Puyravaud (2003) (Eq. (1); Table 2):
TCiht1t2 ¼ ððln ATiht2  ln ATiht1 Þ  100Þ=ðt2  t1Þ
Where
TCiht1-2 is the annual rate of change (%) of population i, in an
area of interest h between two moments of time t1 (initial time
period) and t2 (final time period)
ATiht1 is the total population i, in an area of interest h at time t1
ATiht2 is the total population i, in an area of interest h at time t2.
Results
Analysis of land use/cover change (LUCC)
The area and percentage represented by each land cover cate-
gory during the three selected time periods is shown in Table 3. By
1987, 90% of the area was still covered by natural categories and only
10% by non-natural categories. Of the natural categories, 39% are
constituted by high savannas which are the most extensive forma-
tion in the study area, followed by flooded savannas (28%) and forest
(19%). In non-natural categories, crops and exotic pastures have the
highest area coverage, namely 8%, followed by 1% infrastructure.
Palm oil plantations only made up a 0.2%. In the year 2000, 8% of the
natural categories of the study area were lost (from 90% to 82%),
increasing the percentage of non-natural categories. By 2007, non-
natural covers dominate along the Andes foothills and now cover
23% of the study area. Crops and exotic pastures now cover 20% of
the area, infrastructure 1% and plantations 1%. In terms of natural
categories high savanna cover decreased to 35%, flooded savannas to
19% and forest to 18%. All non-natural classes show an increase of
area from 1987 to 2007. An important land cover transformation is
related to the expansion of plantations, which shows an increase in
area from 31 km2 in 1987 to 163 km2 in 2007. The most affected
region in the study area is along the Andes foothills, where most
human activity and settlements are located (Fig. 2).
Gross gains, gross losses and persistence of LUCC
The transition matrices of the 1987e2000 and 2000e7 LUC
maps are shown in Tables 4 and 5 respectively. These extended
transitional matrices indicate gross loss by category in the last
column and gross gain by category in the final row. Between 1987
and 2000 the gain is highest for crops and exotic pastures, followed
by palm oil plantations and infrastructure (9.3%, 0.3% and 0.1%
respectively). Loss is highest for flooded savannas, followed by high
savannas and crops and exotic pastures (6.8%, 2.6% and 0.2%
respectively). The prominent transitions are from flooded and high
savannas to crops and exotic pastures (7% and 3% respectively).
There is also a small conversion of 0.2% from crops and exotic
pastures to palm oil plantations. Between 2000 and 2007 the gain is
highest for crops and exotic pastures, followed by palm oil plan-
tations and infrastructure (4%, 0.6% and 0.02% respectively). Loss is
(1)
highest for flooded savannas, followed by high savannas and forest
(2.6%, 1.1% and 0.7% respectively). The prominent transitions are
from flooded and high savannas to crops and exotic pastures (3%
and 1% respectively). The conversion from crops and exotic pastures
to palm oil plantations has increased slightly to 0.4%. During the

Table 2
Number and rate of change of population between 1973 and 2005. Source: DANE, census date 1973, 1985, 1993 and 2005.

State Area (Ha) Number of inhabitants Rate of change of population

1973 1985 1993 2005 1973e1985 1985e1993 1993e2005 1973e2005

Arauca 1640 Urban 9203 25,157 53,224 119,925 8.38 9.37 6.77 8.02
Rural 12,178 21,033 46,530 37,167 4.55 9.93 1.87 3.49
Casanare 4307 Urban 18,887 46,467 91,272 284,475 7.5 8.44 9.47 8.48
Rural 62,477 90,855 109,658 88,618 3.12 2.35 1.78 1.09
Meta 6623 Urban 150,160 279,887 378,413 735,829 5.19 3.77 5.54 4.97
Rural 118,223 170,381 206,469 174,129 3.05 2.4 1.42 1.21
Vichada 10,000 Urban 3987 3987 9449 55,872 0 10.79 14.81 8.25
Rural 1573 6933 52,624 34,837 12.36 25.34 3.44 9.68
Total 22,570 Urban 182,237 355,498 532,358 1,196,101 5.57 5.05 6.75 5.88
Rural 194,451 289,202 415,281 334,751 3.31 4.52 1.8 1.7
770 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776

Table 3
Land use/cover categories in the Llanos Orientales represented in area (km2) and percentage of total region for the years 1987*, 2000 and 2007 (*Prior to 1987, the transformed
areas were estimated to make up only 2% of the Llanos Orientales (Etter et al. 2008)).

Class Category 1987 2000 2007 Area of change (km2)

Area (km2) Area (%) Area (km2) Area (%) Area (km2) Area (%) 1987e2000 2000e2007 1987e2007
Natural Water 365 2.18 365 2.18 365 2.18 0 0 0
Forest 3158 18.89 3145 18.81 3046 18.21 13 99 112
High savannas 6500 38.87 6086 36.39 5885 35.19 413 200 614
Flooded Savannas 4688 28.04 3594 21.49 3185 19.05 1094 408 1502
Sandy savannas 213 1.28 213 1.28 213 1.28 0 0 0
Outcrops rocks 16 0.1 16 0.1 16 0.1 0 0 0
Wetlands 70 0.42 70 0.42 70 0.42 0 0 0
Secondary 139 0.84 137 0.82 139 0.84 2 2 0
No Natural Infrastructure 170 1.02 190 1.14 190 1.14 19 0 19
Crops and exotic pastures 1369 8.19 2829 16.92 3447 20.62 1459 618 2078
Plantations 31 0.19 77 0.46 162 0.97 46 85 131
Total 16,722 100 16,724 100 16,722 100

* Prior to 1987, the transformed areas were estimated to make up only 2% of the Llanos Orientales (Etter et al., 2008).

period 1987e2000, there was a conversion of forest, crops and
exotic pastures and palm oil plantations with a 0.08% and 0.03%
respectively. These values increased during the period 2000e7,
namely to 0.53% and 0.12% respectively.
Table 6 shows for the periods 1987e2000, 2000e7 and the
composite period, 1987e2007, the total values of persistence, gains,
losses, changes, swap and ratios of gain and loss-to-persistence. For
the periods 1987e2000 and 2000e7 the persistence was 90% and
95% of the landscape. For the period 1987e2007, the persistence
value was 86%. The relatively highest gains were for crops and
exotic pastures, while the category of flooded savannas showed
highest losses. Gain-to-persistence ratio is far greater than 1 for all
non-natural categories, with extreme values for palm oil planta-
tions and crops and exotic pastures (424 and 167 respectively),
indicating their strong tendency to gain. Tendencies to lose are
strongest for flooded savannas and high savannas, as their loss-to-
persistence ratio indicates (47 and 10 respectively).
Total net and swap change
For the period of 1987e2007, the total change was 14.4%, the
net change was 14% and the swap change was 1.18%. The most
dynamic categories in terms of total and net change were crops
and exotic pastures and flooded savannas respectively. There is
a proportion of swapping components of change for crops and
exotic pastures (1.0%) and forest (1.4%), whilst other categories
have hardly or no swap change in comparison to net change. These
swaps are attributed to loss of crops and exotic pastures to palm oil
plantations and gain of forest from secondary vegetation (Tables 4
and 5). According toBraimoh (2006)and Alo and Pontius (2008), if
category A loses systematically to category B, and category B gains
systematically from category A, then we can conclude that there is
systematic process of transition from A to B. In comparing the
observed transitions to the expected transitions based on
a random process of gain, we find that the observed gains are more

Fig. 2. Map of land cover changes between 1970 and 2007 for the study area. Black colour: change between 1970 and 1987, dark grey: change between 1987 and 2000, light grey:
change between 2000 and 2007. The regional windows shown are relevant to Fig. 3.
 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776 771

Table 4
Transition Matrix for the period 1987-2000; in percentage of the total landscape under observed (in bold), random process of gain (in italics) and random process of loss (in
normal font), with the three systematic transitions highlighted in grey.

Infra-structure Forest Crops and Palm oil High Flooded Secondary Total LOSS
exotic pastures plantations savannas savannas Vegetation 1987
Infrastructure 1.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.06 0
0 0.11 0.01 0 0 0 1.18 0.11
0 0 0 0 0 0 1.06 0
Forest 0.01 19.55 0.08 0.03 0 0 0 19.67 0.12
0.03 1.82 0.09 0 0 0 21.49 1.94
0 0.04 0 0.05 0.03 0 19.67 0.12
Crops and exotic pastures 0.05 0 8.32 0.16 0 0 0 8.53 0.21
0.03 0.01 0.08 0 0 0 8.43 0.12
0.01 0.11 0.01 0.2 0.1 0 8.75 0.43
Palm Oil plantations 0 0 0 0.19 0 0 0 0.19 0
0 0 0.04 0 0 0 0.24 0.04
0 0 0 0 0 0 0.19 0
High savannas 0 0 2.52 0.06 37.9 0 0 40.48 2.58
0.06 0.02 3.47 0.17 0 0 41.62 3.72
0.05 0.73 0.92 0.03 0.64 0.03 40.31 2.4
Flooded savannas 0.07 0 6.71 0.04 0 22.38 0 29.2 6.82
0.04 0.01 2.06 0.1 0 0 24.59 2.21
0.08 1.24 1.56 0.06 2.23 0.05 27.61 5.23
Secondary vegetation 0 0.04 0 0 0 0 0.83 0.87 0.04
0 0 0.08 0 0 0 0.92 0.09
0 0.01 0.01 0 0.01 0.01 0.87 0.04
Total 2000 1.18 19.59 17.63 0.48 37.9 22.38 0.83 100 9.76
1.22 19.59 15.9 0.64 37.9 22.38 0.83 98.46 9.76
1.21 21.65 10.84 0.29 40.4 23.15 0.93 98.46 8.22
GAIN 0.12 0.04 9.31 0.29 0 0 0 9.76
0.16 0.04 7.58 0.45 0 0 0 8.22
0.14 2.09 2.52 0.1 2.5 0.77 0.09 8.22

than one percentage point greater than the expected gains for
flooded savannas to crops and exotic pastures. This means that the
gains in crops and exotic pastures led to systematic replacement of
flooded savannas. Crops and exotic pastures to palm oil plantations
show higher than expected gains during the period 1987e2007.
Hence, when palm oil plantations gain, it systematically replaces
crops and exotic pastures. Flooded savannas to infrastructure is
0.03 higher than expected during the period 1987e2000, but
during 2000e7. The observed transitions of loss are lower than
random transitions for the category of forest, which is obviously
due to the fact that, besides some secondary vegetation, no tran-
sition occurs to forest from savannas or anthropogenic categories.
Taking into account that the period 1987e2000 consists of 13
years, and 2000e7 of 7 years, the annual total change for
1987e2000 and 2000e7 is 0.75 and 0.67 respectively. For the
period 1987 to 2007, this value is 0.72.

Table 5
Transition matrix for the period 2000-2007; in percentage of the total landscape under observed (in bold), random process of gain (in italics) and random process of loss (in
normal font), with the three systematic transitions highlighted in grey.

Infra-structure Forest Crops and Palm oil High Flooded savannas Secondary Total 2000 LOSS
exotic pastures plantations savannas Vegetation
Infra-structure 1.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.18 0
0 0.06 0.01 0 0 0 1.25 0.07
0 0 0 0 0 0 1.18 0
Forest 0 18.94 0.53 0.12 0 0 0 19.58 0.65
0 0.98 0.11 0 0 0 20.03 1.1
0.01 0.17 0.01 0.3 0.16 0.01 19.59 0.65
Crops and exotic pastures 0 0 17.26 0.36 0 0 0 17.62 0.36
0 0 0.1 0 0 0 17.36 0.1
0.01 0.09 0 0.17 0.09 0 17.62 0.36
Palm Oil plantation 0 0 0 0.48 0 0 0 0.48 0
0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0.51 0.02
0 0 0 0 0 0 0.48 0
High savannas 0 0 1.07 0.03 36.79 0 0 37.89 1.1
0 0.01 1.88 0.21 0 0 38.89 2.1
0.02 0.33 0.37 0.02 0.34 0.02 37.89 1.1
Flooded savannas 0 0 2.5 0.04 0 19.83 0 22.38 2.55
0 0.01 1.12 0.13 0 0 21.08 1.25
0.04 0.61 0.68 0.03 1.17 0.03 22.38 2.55
Secondary vegetation 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.83 0.85 0.02
0 0 0.04 0 0 0 0.88 0.05
0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0.86 0.02
Total 2000 1.18 18.96 21.37 1.04 36.79 19.83 0.83 100 4.68
1.18 18.96 21.37 1.04 36.79 19.83 0.83 100 4.68
1.26 19.97 18.49 0.55 38.43 20.43 0.89 100 4.69
GAIN 0 0.02 4.11 0.56 0 0 0 4.68
0 0.02 4.11 0.56 0 0 0 4.69
0.07 1.03 1.23 0.06 1.64 0.6 0.05 4.69
772 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776

Table 6
Budget of landscape persistence and components of change in terms of percent of study area during 1987-2000, 2000-2007 and 1987-2007. The totals for the period 1987-2007
are in bold, while the most important values area in italics.

Category/Period Infra- structure Forest Crops and Palm oil High Flooded Secondary Total
exotic pastures plantations savannas savannas vegetation
Persistence 1987e2000 0.01 0.2 0.08 0 0.38 0.22 0.01 0.9
2000e2007 0.01 0.19 0.17 0 0.37 0.2 0.01 0.95
1987e2007 0.01 0.19 0.08 0 0.37 0.2 0.01 0.86
Gains 1987e2000 0.12 0.04 9.31 0.29 0 0 0 9.76
2000e2007 0 0.02 4.11 0.56 0 0 0 4.68
1987e2007 0.12 0.83 13.42 0.82 0 0 0 15.2
Loss 1987e2000 0 0.12 0.21 0 2.58 6.82 0.04 9.76
2000e2007 0 0.65 0.36 0 1.1 2.55 0.02 4.68
1987e2007 0 0.7 0.48 0 3.83 9.36 0.83 15.2
Ratio Gain/Persistence 1987e2000 11.69 0.18 111.89 149.2 0 0 0 10.84
2000e2007 0 0.11 23.79 115.59 0 0 0 4.93
1987e2007 11.69 4.4 166.71 424.11 0 0 0 17.67
Ratio Loss/Persistence 1987e2000 0 1.4 0.96 0 0 0 0 1.18
2000e2007 0 3.42 2.1 0 3 12.86 2.4 4.93
1987e2007 0 3.68 5.93 0 10.45 47.18 100 17.67
Total change 1987e2000 0.12 0.15 9.52 0.29 2.58 6.82 0.04 9.76
2000e2007 0 0.67 4.47 0.56 1.1 2.55 0.02 4.68
1987e2007 0.12 0.82 13.99 0.85 3.68 9.36 0.06 14.44
Swap 1987e2000 0 0.07 0.42 0 0 0 0 0.25
2000e2007 0 0.04 0.72 0 0 0 0 0.38
1987e2007 0 1.4 0.96 0 0 0 0 1.18
Absolute value of change 1987e2000 0.12 0.08 9.1 0.29 2.58 6.82 0.04 9.51
2000e2007 0 0.63 3.75 0.56 1.1 2.55 0.02 4.3
1987e2007 0.12 0.14 12.94 0.82 3.83 9.36 0.83 14.02

Discussion
In the following section, we will relate the observed changes of
land use/cover with the demographic tendencies and economic
development of the region from the baseline date of this study.
However it is first necessary to place the observed LUCC changes
into an historical context by looking in brief at the development of
the region up to 1987. Up to 1970, only 2% of the Llanos Orientales
had undergone some kind of LUC transformation (Etter et al., 2008).
Since the pre-Spanish period (before 1500), the Llanos Orientales
have been used by the indigenous communities in a traditional
way, by fishing, hunting and gathering activities (Etter et al., 2008;
Rausch, 2009). During the 19th century, incipient colonization was
founded in the southern foothills, as the region of Villavicencio was
consolidated as the first place of trade of livestock and merchandise
that connected the Andean zone with the Llanos Orientales (Fig. 1).
During the 1970s, the mountains and foothills were used for
extensive livestock: the estimated size of cattle herds increased
from an estimated 100,000 in 1850 to 3,200,000 in 1970 for the
entire region (Etter et al., 2008). Additionally, during this period the
pavement of the highway Bogota e Villavicencio was enhanced,
which gave an impulse to the colonization and commercialization
of the foothill area (Fig. 2). This area became consolidated
for trading, while leaving the low savanna plains isolated from
the national commerce by considering it without any economic
potential. As such, the Llanos Orientales were of low socio-
economic and political interest up to the 70’s, presented by a low
population density (0.01 habitants per km2). This is reflected by the
relatively slow LUC changes as illustrated in Fig. 3.
In 1974, there was a 1.1 million head of cattle located the
savannas of the Meta region. Production methods were backward
(Rausch, 2009). To support the extensive livestock, exotic African
grasses were introduced to increase the productivity and fertility of
the soil and to intensify the livestock production. However, these
introduced species showed a decline in productivity after 4e10
years of use (Lopez, Hernandez, & Brossard, 2005). As a response to
the decreasing production and the increasing national nutritional
needs, an alternative cultivation was implemented in the 1980s
with the introduction of rice. Although still in low density, these
plantations can be observed in the satellite images of 1987 near the
foothill area (Fig. 3). Equally in the south-western sector, the first
plantations of palm oil were found, delineating an area of 31 km2 in
1987 (Fig. 3). By the end of the 1980s, two important petroleum
fields in the foothills of Casanare were discovered (Rausch, 2009).
This economic development triggered the second migration of
Andean peasants, in search of economic resources and labour
opportunities. This process caused an increase of the urban pop-
ulation (Table 2) and an expansion of road infrastructure, driven
principally by the opening of the petroleum commerce in the
region (Correa et al., 2006). Consequently, the population density
increased from eight habitants per km2 in 1973 to twelve habitants
per km2 in 1985 (Table 2). This period is marked by strong economic
changes, as the agricultural and livestock sectors lost a high degree
of economic importance, while the petroleum sector boomed in
the principal departments of production, namely in the foothills
area of Meta, Casanare and Arauca (Gonzalez, 2005, 165 pp).
1987e2000: stimulation of monocultures and petroleum
development
Fifteen years after the establishment of rice plantations in the
southwest foothill area in the Meta state, a stagnation in the yield
per unit area occurred. Due to the low fertility of the soil combined
with the high management demands, large quantities of fertilizers
were necessary. Looking for more favourable area, the rice planta-
tions were displaced to the northwest foothill area in the Casanare
state (Fig. 2). The main categories of this area, namely flooded
savannas, started to be affected as can be seen by its conversion to
crops and exotic pastures (6.7%). There is an expansion of the
agriculture (9.3%) in the foothills and the higher part of the high
savanna plains (2.6% loss), through plantations of palms, sugar
cane, sorghum, corn and soya (Fig. 3). The previous abandoned
crops and exotic pastures (including the rice plantations) in the
southwest of Meta started to be replaced by palm oil plantations,
triggered by the international demand for innovative energy
sources, such as biodiesel. Operations started pumping oil in Meta
in 1996, and by 2001 this state was producing 11 percent of
Colombia’s national output (Rausch, 2009). This amount ranked it
 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776
Fig. 3. Land cover changes between 1970 and 2007 for three regions (shown in Fig. 2). Top: Western foothill area close to Yopal. Middle: South west central area. Bottom: South-
eastern area. Dark green: forest, Yellow: high savannas, Cyan: flooded savannas, Dark blue: rivers, Purple: palm oil plantations, and Orange: illicit cultivation. (For interpretation of
the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
as the third largest petroleum-producing department, exceeded
only by Casanare with 45.1% and Arauca with 17.7% of national
output. While the population of Meta and Casanare states increased
to a density of 70 inhabitants per km2. The petroleum boom in
Arauca, led to an increase in its population density to 84 inhabitants
per km2 during the period 1985e1993 (Table 2). This is equally
represented by the economic increase in mainly Arauca and Casa-
nare from 4.1% to 5.9% in the period between 1990 and 1999. In
1999, the Gross National Product (GNP) of these states showed an
annual increase of 6.4%, while Colombia presented a decrease of
4.2% (Viloria de la Hoz, 2009).
On the eastern side of the Llanos Orientales, the indigenous
territories became officially recognized which granted autonomy of
the local inhabitants in the use and management of the natural
resources according to their traditional methods of fishing, hunting
and establishment of small agricultural plots called conocus. Due to
this traditional use of land, minimal changes are observed in this
part of the Llanos Orientales (Figs. 2 and 3). The changes in the
eastern areas are related to illicit crops, introduced by the end of the
1990s, altering 2% of gallery forest found in this area (SIMCI, 2009).
2000 to 2007: palm oil and petroleum boom
By the beginning of the 21st century, the economy of the Llanos
Orientales was dominated by the extraction of petroleum.
However, this situation changed as petroleum productivity fell, due
to lack of new oil fields affecting mainly the states of Arauca and
Casanare that depended greatly on this economic resource. In 1999,
output of Casanare oil field reached a peak of 300,000 million
barrels, and then began a steady decline to 200 million barrels in
2006 (Rausch, 2009). Although the economic loss was compen-
sated by the high price of petroleum, reaching values close to $150
a barrel, the situation became critical in 2007 as the price per barrel
773
dropped to $40, marking one of the lowest price levels in history.
This forced the petroleum industry to search for new areas to
exploit, principally towards the central area of the states of Casa-
nare and Meta (Fig. 4). It managed to recover economically, reaching
the same values of Gross National Product (GNP) of the decade of
the nineties, but decreased its overall contribution to the GNP,
which declined from 6.0 to 4.2% (Viloria de la Hoz, 2009). The
economy of the Meta state coped better with the petroleum crisis,
thanks to the combination of petroleum activities with the presence
of livestock, trading and agriculture. The latter economic resource
contributed significantly to the regional economy during this
period, mainly by the astonishing doubling in area of palm oil
plantations, from 77 km2 to 162 km2 in only seven years (Table 3).
Foremost flooded and high savannas were converted for plantation
purposes. The changes observed in 2007 are concentrated princi-
pally in the central zone of the foothills (Fig. 2), comprised by the
south of the states Casanare and Meta, and the high savannas of the
central part of Meta (Fig. 3.). Further expansion was also expected in
the northeast of Casanare. However, during this period no large-
scale transformations were observed. It is thought that the agri-
cultural frontier has become naturally delineated by zones of
pronounced inundation regimes. During this period, crops and
exotic pastures in the foothills of Casanare and Meta showed a 0.2%
loss, associated with the expansion of the palm oil plantation
establishments.
Future economic development in the Llanos Orientales
Fig. 4 shows the actual and potential localization of economic
development in the study area and considers the expansion of palm
oil, sugar cane, soya, corn, sorghum and rice plantations and the
exploration, exploitation and expansion of petroleum and mining.
The past and future regional economic development in terms
774 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776

Fig. 4. Map of the actual and potential locations of economical developments in the study area as a result of petroleum exploitation, and production of palm oil, rice, sugar cane,
soya, corn and sorghum. Indigenous territories and protected areas are overlaid by these developments.

of area (infrastructure, plantations, rice crops and mining) and
petroleum production is shown in Fig. 5. Based on the future
economic projections, rigorous changes are expected throughout
the whole area of the foothills and inevitably towards the eastern
low plain areas.
Up to 2007, observed LUCC has been mainly limited to the
Andean foothills, where 80% of the population is located. New
potential areas for rice plantations have been identified in the
northwest of Casanare and Arauca states. It is expected that
sorghum, soya, sugar cane and corn will expand eastwards towards
the high savannas along the Meta River into Meta and Vichada
states. Nearly 50% of the region are at present designated as the
most important petroleum reserve in Colombia, currently
contributing 80% of the total national production (ANH, 2010).
According to the database of UPME (2011), new areas in the Meta
and Casanare states for exploitation and exploration are being
identified. However, with the expansion of petroleum exploitation,
there has been a parallel expansion of armed conflict, accompanied
with the displacement of thousands of people and seizure of
property (Rausch, 2009). Meanwhile, mining companies have
requested extraction permission for a total area of 11,930 km2, an
increase in area by a factor of 50 from 2007 (Ingeominas, 2011).
However, concessions have been assigned within indigenous
territories and protected areas (Fig. 4). Furthermore, there has been

Fig. 5. Past and future tendencies of the economic development in the study area, based on the occupation of plantations, infrastructure, crops, mining and petroleum production.
The units of area are km2 on an exponential scale on the left Y-axis and values are specified in the table. Petroleum is represented on the right Y-axis in millions of barrels per year
(MB/Y). Future tendencies are based on projections cited from different information sources and are thought to be realized in following ten years.
 M.H. Romero-Ruiz et al. / Applied Geography 32 (2012) 766e776
the intention of modernizing cattle ranching in the region through
large forestry and agricultural projects. Facing the high prices of
land, many of the traditional owners of the cattle ranches have sold,
are in process of selling or are waiting an opportunity to do so.
Some have argued that the profit of livestock holdings will not be
able to compete with the current developments of the region, and
that the future of the traditional way of ranching will eventually
surrender to the strengthening of the agro-industry and petroleum
(Becerra et al., 2009, pp. 144). In 2007, palm oil plantations occu-
pied 162 km2, but 1200 km2 have been designated as potential
areas for future cultivation (Corzo et al., 2009, pp. 1e87; Fig. 4),
augmenting palm oil production to with an 80% of actual produc-
tion (XXXIX National Congress of Cultivators of Palm Oil, 2011).
Since 2010, Colombia is the fifth largest producer of palm oil at
a global scale, behind Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Thailand.
The study area accounts for 30% of national production (Becerra
et al., 2009, pp. 144). Prices of vegetable oils continue to rise
largely attributed to the biofuel demand (FAOSTAT-FAO ,2010).
However, there have been significant setbacks in Colombian palm
oil production. International prices have increased 32%. However,
local prices have only increased by 5% due to a revaluation of the
national currency and the stabilizing effect of the Andean Price
Agreements. Furthermore, palm oil has been the focus of negative
attention due to concerns about the environmental and social
sustainability of the sector’s further expansion which could result
in trade restrictions and concrete repercussions on markets.
Colombia has furthermore lost partaking in the international
market due to high export and labour costs compared to Asian
markets. However, palm oil plantations keep on expanding in the
study area resulting in the loss of flooded and high savannas.
Rapid LUCC and future economy integrated conservation strategies
Based on the results presented in the paper in the context of
economic development and projections, we make a recommenda-
tion for future economy integrated conservation strategy. Certain
ecosystems have been identified as in systematic transition to other
land cover types. These ecosystems support important ecological
and hydrological functions. Ecological connectivity is essential for
the protection and enhancement of ecosystem goods and services
but also vital to the pursuit of sustainable development. We
propose the implementation of the Llanos ecological network that
consists of core areas, nature development areas and ecological
corridors, as has been implemented in other countries with a high
density population and infrastructure such as the Netherlands
(EEAC, 2009). The core areas are large nature areas or a number of
smaller areas linked together. Nature development areas are those
designed to increase (and reinforce) the existing core areas, but
they can also grow to become new core areas. Ecological corridors
are areas or structures that enable the expansion, migration and
exchange of plant and animal species between various core areas.
These connections may take the form of interconnections or
stepping-stones of varying sizes. This study has quantified the
spatial distribution of key natural surfaces and can be used to assist
in the identification of these areas. For example, it seems of para-
mount importance to preserve regions of flooded and high
savannas as these seem to be the land cover types most at risk from
change.
Conclusion
In this paper, we present a unique, detailed quantitative
assessment of land cover changes in the savanna region of eastern
Colombia for the period 1987 to 2007. The results show that by
1987, 10% of the area of the study area had experienced some kind
775
of change, increasing to 23% by 2007. The driving forces of the
changes observed are associated with land management and
development of new economical activities. From earlier literature,
the necessity of increasing livestock production caused the trans-
formation from natural to exotic pastures in the 1970s. During the
1980s and 1990s rice plantations were established in the southwest
area and later on in the northwest of the study area. By the end of
the 1990s, palm oil plantations had expanded, petroleum exploi-
tation and the growing of illicit crops had increased. Taking into
account the many development projects which are planned for the
future the Llanos Orientales of Colombia is likely to be one of the
most threatened ecosystems in Colombia impacting on biodiversity
and hydrological functioning. Therefore, we propose that action is
needed in the form of a Llanos Ecological Network consisting of
core areas, natural development areas, and corridors. The land
cover/use maps derived in this study can assist in creating this
network.
Acknowledgements
The Alban Program of the European Union (E06D100666CO), the
Colfuturo Fund (Colombia) and The Nature Conservancy e
Northern Andes Program provided funding to Milton Romero. We
would like to thank the reviewers for their valuable comments on
the manuscript. We are furthermore grateful to Dr. Pontius who
kindly provided additional support during the process of our data
assessment.
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